Protecting end of game leads

[Saratoga2]

Would like to start a discussion of how to protect end of game leads and what personnel we have that might best suit the needs going forward. My thought of the opponents goals when trailing late in the game follow:

Defense
Pressure our in bounds play
Trap anyone receiving the ball
Be physical with our players
Avoid allowing easy scoring opportunities off the traps
Foul our weakest shooters if late in the game

Offense
Move the ball quickly to the basket looking for an immediate score or FTs or both
Look for open 3 point shots if drive is not there
Crash the boards for rebounds

Knowing what the opponents want to do, we need to counter that by having guys out there who can be successful with the inbounds play, who are able to withstand the pressure of a trapping physical defense, have good floor vision and are good foul shooters. On defense we need players who can stay in front of their quick guards without fouling, players who aren’t in foul trouble or exhausted and players who have a good understanding of the game and who remain cool under pressure with bigs who are smart rebounders.

Like any wish list, one has to pick from real people who probably don’t fill all of the desired traits. If I could pick from former Duke rosters I would pick the following players, although there certainly are a lot of others who would be strong candidates.

Quinn Cook
Jon Scheyer
Grant Hill
Shane Battier
Christian Laettner

Returning from fantasy Land for our current team

Brandon Ingram Foul shooting?)
Luke Kennard
Amile Jefferson (get well soon)
Matt Jones
Grayson Allen (control his aggression)

I am interested in what lineup others would justify for end of game

[MarkD83]

The ultimate line-up would have enough of a lead so that they would not need any more field goals and they would not have to shoot the ball so their basketball skills would need to be

1) hit free throws
2) handle the ball
3) don't even think about shooting even if it is a layup
4) defend the 3. Giving up layups is fine.

So on Duke's current team...

Kennard 92%
Allen 84%
Jones 71%
Thornton 71%
Ingram 66%

Item 3 is the key one. Most comebacks occur because players shoot too early and the team that is down gets a fast break and takes on a few seconds off the clock. Let the shot clock run out set your defense and make the other team take 4-5 seconds just to get into their offense.

If you want an example of don't even shoot a layup just look at the end of last year's national championship. Tyus Jones gave me an ulcer after he missed the layup near the end of the game. Duke did win but if he had just pulled the ball out and ran around there would have been no drama at the end.

[rsvman]

The ultimate line-up would have enough of a lead so that they would not need any more field goals and they would not have to shoot the ball so their basketball skills would need to be

1) hit free throws
2) handle the ball
3) don't even think about shooting even if it is a layup
4) defend the 3. Giving up layups is fine.

So on Duke's current team...

Kennard 92%
Allen 84%
Jones 71%
Thornton 71%
Ingram 66%

Item 3 is the key one. Most comebacks occur because players shoot too early and the team that is down gets a fast break and takes on a few seconds off the clock. Let the shot clock run out set your defense and make the other team take 4-5 seconds just to get into their offense.

If you want an example of don't even shoot a layup just look at the end of last year's national championship. Tyus Jones gave me an ulcer after he missed the layup near the end of the game. Duke did win but if he had just pulled the ball out and ran around there would have been no drama at the end.

You don't have to look back that far to see a missed layup that occurred way too early in the shot clock. In the Ga Tech game a couple of days ago, Thornton drove the lane and missed a layup with about 12 seconds left on the clock. We ended up winning, but it got a lot closer than it needed to.

[Lar77]

Ah, the agita discussion of "end of game with a lead" reappears. Do we resurrect the "Stall Ball" threads?

Seems pretty simple:

1. Get a guy who can throw the ball in against a trap. Jefferson seems to be our best over the past two years, but he's not here right now. Jones?
2. Get your best free throw shooter(s) to get the first pass(es). Allen and Kennard
3. Make sure the guy who handles the ball can hit FTs under pressure. Allen, Kennard, Thornton?
4. Need a big guy who can set a screen on the inbound and not be a liability if he touches the ball and gets fouled. Ingram? Plums?
5. Don't foul, but don't watch the other guy in a layup drill. Problem for us at times.
6. Make the other guy work the ball up court, but don't get blown by. Problem for us at times.
7. Don't be unlucky. It happens.

And yet we struggle.

We get tired; we get "young;" we get "wtf."

[Bluedog]

The ultimate line-up would have enough of a lead so that they would not need any more field goals and they would not have to shoot the ball so their basketball skills would need to be

1) hit free throws
2) handle the ball
3) don't even think about shooting even if it is a layup
4) defend the 3. Giving up layups is fine.

So on Duke's current team...

Kennard 92%
Allen 84%
Jones 71%
Thornton 71%
Ingram 66%

Item 3 is the key one. Most comebacks occur because players shoot too early and the team that is down gets a fast break and takes on a few seconds off the clock. Let the shot clock run out set your defense and make the other team take 4-5 seconds just to get into their offense.

If you want an example of don't even shoot a layup just look at the end of last year's national championship. Tyus Jones gave me an ulcer after he missed the layup near the end of the game. Duke did win but if he had just pulled the ball out and ran around there would have been no drama at the end.


You don't have to look back that far to see a missed layup that occurred way too early in the shot clock. In the Ga Tech game a couple of days ago, Thornton drove the lane and missed a layup with about 12 seconds left on the clock. We ended up winning, but it got a lot closer than it needed to.

Conversely, I recall a Va Tech guy a few years back who had a wide open layup/dunk and instead of taking it, he dribbled it back out, which took an extra 1.5 seconds and then he got fouled. There was something like 20 seconds left. The announcers praised him for being smart, but then he missed the front end of a 1-and-1 and I think they ended up losing. I personally would take a 95% chance at 2 points rather than roll the dice at the free throw line (particularly for players that aren't great foul shooters). But every situation is different. Like yesterday, I think we had a runout on one play and Luke (I think?) took the layup, which I thought was wise for the guaranteed two points. 2 points > 2 seconds. In the national championship last year, on the other hand, Tyus tried for a layup runout when we had the lead, and it spun out...

[Olympic Fan]

Is this really an issue?

Yeah, Duke made some bonehead plays at the end of the Georgia Tech game, but I would argue that Duke has been and is masterful in late-game situations protecting the lead.

Even this year -- Duke has lost four close games, but not because they couldn't protect the lead.

Against Syracuse and Clemson, Duke never had the lead down the stretch. Duke did have three one-point leads late against Notre Dame, but never had the ball and the lead at the same time, so there was nothing to protect.

Okay, the end of regulation against Utah was one situation where Duke didn't protect a lead. After going up 60-55 with 4:14 left, Duke was outscored 5-0 down the stretch. But the Devils did nothing wrong in this stretch when Utah tied the game -- they did not have a turnover. They got several defensive stops. They did not have a quick shot and they missed one free throw -- and that was by Grayson Allen, the team's second best free throw shooter. In overtime, Duke was coming from behind.

I was trying to think back to the last time Duke actually screwed up an end-game situation -- maybe the loss to UNC in Chapel Hill in 2005 (when Duke's point guard was out with an injury) ... maybe the NCAA semifinal loss to UConn in 2004 (although some bizarre officiating contributed to that one)?

I'm sure it's happened. But despite the Georgia Tech mistakes, few teams in college basketball have ever been as consistently good as Duke in this phase of the game.

[NYBri]

Recently, I'd just be happy to have a late game lead to protect.

[MarkD83]

Recently, I'd just be happy to have a late game lead to protect.

touche

[Saratoga2]

Is this really an issue?

Yeah, Duke made some bonehead plays at the end of the Georgia Tech game, but I would argue that Duke has been and is masterful in late-game situations protecting the lead.

Even this year -- Duke has lost four close games, but not because they couldn't protect the lead.

Against Syracuse and Clemson, Duke never had the lead down the stretch. Duke did have three one-point leads late against Notre Dame, but never had the ball and the lead at the same time, so there was nothing to protect.

Okay, the end of regulation against Utah was one situation where Duke didn't protect a lead. After going up 60-55 with 4:14 left, Duke was outscored 5-0 down the stretch. But the Devils did nothing wrong in this stretch when Utah tied the game -- they did not have a turnover. They got several defensive stops. They did not have a quick shot and they missed one free throw -- and that was by Grayson Allen, the team's second best free throw shooter. In overtime, Duke was coming from behind.

I was trying to think back to the last time Duke actually screwed up an end-game situation -- maybe the loss to UNC in Chapel Hill in 2005 (when Duke's point guard was out with an injury) ... maybe the NCAA semifinal loss to UConn in 2004 (although some bizarre officiating contributed to that one)?

I'm sure it's happened. But despite the Georgia Tech mistakes, few teams in college basketball have ever been as consistently good as Duke in this phase of the game.

We made a close game out of GT and Luke came in an stabilized the situation.