Kenpom ?

[gofurman]

Am I reading that right? That Ken Pomeroy has Duke ranked number 18 in the nation? If so, that's encouraging for Duke making the NCAA tourney... No one ranked mid 30s or better didn't make the tourney last year. Vanderbilt at 36th was the first team on his list that didn't make the tournament last year.. see my second link for 2015 where Vandy is the first team without a seeding beside their name

Please confirm. Am I reading this right? Or am I mistaken here...
2016 link

http://kenpom.com/


2015
http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2015

[sagegrouse]

Am I reading that right? That Ken Pomeroy has Duke ranked number 18 in the nation? If so, that's encouraging for Duke making the NCAA tourney... No one ranked mid 30s or better didn't make the tourney last year. Vanderbilt at 36th was the first team on his list that didn't make the tournament last year.. see my second link for 2015 where Vandy is the first team without a seeding beside their name

Please confirm. Am I reading this right? Or am I mistaken here...
2016 link

http://kenpom.com/


2015
http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2015

`That's what I see. Moreover, we are #1 in adj. offensive efficiency (counter-balanced by being #144 in adj. defensive efficiency).

[CDu]

Am I reading that right? That Ken Pomeroy has Duke ranked number 18 in the nation? If so, that's encouraging for Duke making the NCAA tourney... No one ranked mid 30s or better didn't make the tourney last year. Vanderbilt at 36th was the first team on his list that didn't make the tournament last year.. see my second link for 2015 where Vandy is the first team without a seeding beside their name

Please confirm. Am I reading this right? Or am I mistaken here...
2016 link

http://kenpom.com/


2015
http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2015

If the tournament were to start today, we would be in the field. If we manage to stay that high for the rest of the year, we will make the tourney. However, there is a lot of schedule left, including the meat of our ACC schedule. If we end up below .500 in conference we will likely wind up far enough down the Kenpom ratings to miss the tourney. More importantly we will fall far enough in the RPI (still way more valued by the committee than Kenpom) to get left out.

I am still hopeful that Jefferson's return will help us avoid that fate. But it isn't out of the question for us to end up sub-.500 in conference this year. We have 5 games left against KenPom's top-10, and 3 more (2 on the road) against top-52 teams. Let's hope for a speedy (and fully healthy) return by Jefferson to give us our best chance to survive the gauntlet of the second half of the schedule.

I still think we will earn an at-large bid, but it is far from a given considering our upcoming schedule.

[Troublemaker]

I'm going to once again pimp BracketMatrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/), which has been accurate in recent years since it crowdsources a bracket. Right now, Duke is a 6 or 7 seed even after all the recent struggles to get a win. (Note: I'm not affiliated with BracketMatrix. I DO love that he is relatively low-tech and handcrafts a new bracket every day or so. That's refreshingly tedious to me. If I were running that site, I would make all the bracketeers use the same format so I could automate putting together the crowdsourced bracket.)

If Amile really is a big loss, which everyone seems to believe including me, then we should feel comfortable that Duke will win its fair share of games against the tough schedule when he returns.

So, while Duke making the tournament isn't a 100% certainty, I'm willing to say there's a ~90% chance still.

[dyedwab]

I'm going to once again pimp BracketMatrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/), which has been accurate in recent years since it crowdsources a bracket. Right now, Duke is a 6 or 7 seed even after all the recent struggles to get a win. (Note: I'm not affiliated with BracketMatrix. I DO love that he is relatively low-tech and handcrafts a new bracket every day or so. That's refreshingly tedious to me. If I were running that site, I would make all the bracketeers use the same format so I could automate putting together the crowdsourced bracket.)

If Amile really is a big loss, which everyone seems to believe including me, then we should feel comfortable that Duke will win its fair share of games against the tough schedule when he returns.

So, while Duke making the tournament isn't a 100% certainty, I'm willing to say there's a ~90% chance still.

I agree with this, and I'd make an additional point. While it isn't usually true for the defending national champion, and a team with the 2nd longest streak of making the tournament of any team in the country, and whose freshman and sophomores weren't alive the last time Duke missed the tourney....

...Given the injuries, youth, and depth issues, and the way the schedule works, making the tournament this year is an accomplishment to be celebrated, in a way Duke fans usually don't (we just assume that we'll make it). Especially if Amile comes back playing as well as we was, making the tourney isn't the ceiling for this team, but making this tournament requires some work for this team -which they are fully capable of.

Just my perspective....

[hallcity]

I'm going to once again pimp BracketMatrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/), which has been accurate in recent years since it crowdsources a bracket. Right now, Duke is a 6 or 7 seed even after all the recent struggles to get a win. (Note: I'm not affiliated with BracketMatrix. I DO love that he is relatively low-tech and handcrafts a new bracket every day or so. That's refreshingly tedious to me. If I were running that site, I would make all the bracketeers use the same format so I could automate putting together the crowdsourced bracket.)

If Amile really is a big loss, which everyone seems to believe including me, then we should feel comfortable that Duke will win its fair share of games against the tough schedule when he returns.

So, while Duke making the tournament isn't a 100% certainty, I'm willing to say there's a ~90% chance still.

Interesting, but this source has Clemson missing the tournament. I'd be surprised if that happens.

[CDu]

Interesting, but this source has Clemson missing the tournament. I'd be surprised if that happens.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Clemson misses the tournament. They are 13-8 overall, and they have an RPI of 83. They have two AWFUL losses. They do have several nice wins (2-2 vs RPI top-25, 6-5 vs RPI top-50) but almost all at home, and their road-neutral record is 2-6.

As of right now, I think it is entirely reasonable for them to be on the outside looking in. They are very much a bubble team right now.

[Troublemaker]

Interesting, but this source has Clemson missing the tournament. I'd be surprised if that happens.


I wouldn't be at all surprised if Clemson misses the tournament. They are 13-8 overall, and they have an RPI of 83. They have two AWFUL losses. They do have several nice wins (2-2 vs RPI top-25, 6-5 vs RPI top-50) but almost all at home, and their road-neutral record is 2-6.

As of right now, I think it is entirely reasonable for them to be on the outside looking in. They are very much a bubble team right now.

Right. And HallCity -- in general, you should doubt your own opinion if it's out of line with BracketMatrix, who is combining the opinions of a few dozen bracketeers.

I'm not saying Clemson won't make the tourney. They have "First 4 Out" status so could certainly play themselves into it. But like CDu says, they are definitely on the bubble right now.

[Reilly]

Duke is #11, and Clemson #52, per the SRS rating at sports-reference.com:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2016-ratings.html

[CDu]

Duke is #11, and Clemson #52, per the SRS rating at sports-reference.com:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2016-ratings.html

I don't think I'd put much stock in that SRS rating. There are some really weird things going on there. For example, we are ranked ahead of Maryland, UVa, and Miami, all of whom have better resumes than us. And they have Louisville rated #1.

I think our ranking relative to Clemson's ranking is about right, but I sure wouldn't say we've played the 11th best basketball in the country right now.

Honestly, Pomeroy's rank (#19) sounds about right to me. Obviously we're better than that (much better) with Jefferson healthy. But I think that sounds about right. And our RPI (#27) sounds reasonable too. I think we've played the 20-25th best basketball in the country so far. We have no top-25 wins and we're 2-5 against the top-50. It's just really hard to justify us as #11 given that resume.

[MarkD83]

If the tournament were to start today, we would be in the field. If we manage to stay that high for the rest of the year, we will make the tourney. However, there is a lot of schedule left, including the meat of our ACC schedule.

So this begs the question. How many of these games does Duke have to win to make the tournament and which games have to be won.
My guess is Duke needs to win 6 of these and my 6 are listed below

@ GT Need to win
vs NCST Need to win
vs 16 LOU Need this win or UVA at home
vs 11 UVA Need this win or LOU at home
@ 2 UNC If this is a win then I will be thrilled and not making the tournament won't matter as much but 5-5 might be OK
@ 16 LOU If this is a win then 5-5 maybe ok
vs FSU Need to win
@ PITT Need to win
vs WAKE Need to win
vs 2 UNC If this is a win then I will be thrilled and not making the tournament won't matter as much but 5-5 might be OK

[Reilly]

I don't think I'd put much stock in that SRS rating ...

I put a lot of stock in the SRS generally. I've found over the years, in both CFB and CBB, it jives with my sense of the relative strength of Duke teams I follow closely. I was a bit surprised to see us come in at #11 right now and thought we'd be a bit lower. Like Kenpom, the SRS pegs us as very strong offensively (I think #3) and much weaker defensively. We have losses by 2 (OT), 5, 4, and 2 points, so I guess I can see where it is coming from. And when talking about 351 teams, the difference between being #11 and #19 is not that much. So, I'll still trust it, and I think in the end it generally accords itself very well.

[CDu]

So this begs the question. How many of these games does Duke have to win to make the tournament and which games have to be won.
My guess is Duke needs to win 6 of these and my 6 are listed below

@ GT Need to win
vs NCST Need to win
vs 16 LOU Need this win or UVA at home
vs 11 UVA Need this win or LOU at home
@ 2 UNC If this is a win then I will be thrilled and not making the tournament won't matter as much but 5-5 might be OK
@ 16 LOU If this is a win then 5-5 maybe ok
vs FSU Need to win
@ PITT Need to win
vs WAKE Need to win
vs 2 UNC If this is a win then I will be thrilled and not making the tournament won't matter as much but 5-5 might be OK

Yes, I think 6-4 gets us in. I would be very wary of going 5-5 and being at the mercy of the selection committee. If we win all of the games that we "should" win, that would mean we'd just need 1 more win among the 5 matchups with the big boys.

The concern about not making the tournament doesn't really escalate unless we lose to Ga Tech or NC State. If we lose one (or both) of those games, then we're in a good deal of trouble. Let's say we split, and are sitting at 5-5 going into the gauntlet. Then we need to win at least one of the games against Louisville and UVa at home AND probably need to win one of the two at UNC or the road game versus Louisville. That's asking a lot. If we lose both games this week, we sit at 4-6 and pretty much have to win 3 of 5 against UNC/Louisville/UVa just to get in.

Depending on when Jefferson comes back, it could really get dicey for us. Winning these next two games would go a long way toward securing a tourney bid.

[Doria]

So this begs the question. How many of these games does Duke have to win to make the tournament and which games have to be won.
My guess is Duke needs to win 6 of these and my 6 are listed below

@ GT Need to win
vs NCST Need to win
vs 16 LOU Need this win or UVA at home
vs 11 UVA Need this win or LOU at home
@ 2 UNC If this is a win then I will be thrilled and not making the tournament won't matter as much but 5-5 might be OK
@ 16 LOU If this is a win then 5-5 maybe ok
vs FSU Need to win
@ PITT Need to win
vs WAKE Need to win
vs 2 UNC If this is a win then I will be thrilled and not making the tournament won't matter as much but 5-5 might be OK

I think this year 5 gets it done, with the caveat that one must be UNC, Louisville, or UVA.

6 might do, but it'll be tougher without a win against the top. I don't feel confident in Pitt's final ranking, either.

Of course, this also discounts the ACCT, where a stumble might be made up for with a couple good wins.

Ugh, my math is not good this morning. Six will, of course, necessitate a win against the top tier... Sigh. Yeah, in light of not being a moron, I think we can maybe drop a close one to a middling team (again, say, Pitt), but not a terrible team.

[BLPOG]

So this begs the question [emphasis added]. How many of these games does Duke have to win to make the tournament and which games have to be won.[SNIP]

My spirit sinks a little lower every time I see the boldfaced phrase on this board. Add me to the list of grammar, spelling, and general rules-of-English-writing nitpickers if you must, but I wish people would use the phrase correctly.

[sagegrouse]

Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
So this begs the question [emphasis added]. How many of these games does Duke have to win to make the tournament and which games have to be won.[SNIP]


My spirit sinks a little lower every time I see the boldfaced phrase on this board. Add me to the list of grammar, spelling, and general rules-of-English-writing nitpickers if you must, but I wish people would use the phrase correctly.

Which is what? It seems consistent with the usage recommendation of "circular reasoning."

[CDu]

Which is what? It seems consistent with the usage recommendation of "circular reasoning."

Not really. Begging the question is saying something like "what matters to me is just as important as what matters to you, because what matters to you is no more important than anything else."

In this case, someone is saying "we still have work to do to make the tournament", and that may lead to a subsequent question "exactly how much work is there to do?"

The begging the question fallacy isn't actually leading to another question related to the original statement; it's just using a variant of the original statement as "proof" of the original statement's accuracy.

[Doria]

I think the original post more accurately asked a question, which it then purported to answer. I don't see any real fallacious argument going on there. But perhaps BLPLOG can define it more precisely.

[BLPOG]

Indeed, CDu and Doria summarized nicely. The question by MarkD83 was a good and interesting one, and answered well, IMO. "Begging the question" is a fallacy in which an argument's conclusion is embedded in the premise; nothing is properly argued, but only assumed instead, making the reasoning circular. The phrase is very commonly misused as a substitute for "raising the question" or "prompting the question," i.e. presenting a point of speculation or inquiry.

[Reilly]

... "Begging the question" is a fallacy in which an argument's conclusion is embedded in the premise; nothing is properly argued, but only assumed instead, making the reasoning circular. The phrase is very commonly misused as a substitute for "raising the question" or "prompting the question," i.e. presenting a point of speculation or inquiry.

A good discussion and some good advice, seems to me, at this link:

My recommendation: Never use the phrase yourself — use "assume the conclusion" or "raise the question", depending on what you mean — and cultivate an attitude of serene detachment in the face of its use by others.

http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=2290

[BLPOG]

A good discussion and some good advice, seems to me, at this link:

My recommendation: Never use the phrase yourself — use "assume the conclusion" or "raise the question", depending on what you mean — and cultivate an attitude of serene detachment in the face of its use by others.

http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=2290

Serenity now... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow_9MglZrhs)

[Reilly]

... it generally accords itself very well ...

Since we're off on language tangents ... I was thinking SRS often ends up being "in accord" with my view of teams' relative strengths -- and meant to write that in so doing, it "acquits" itself well (since it is agreeing with me!) -- but wrongly wrote that it "accords itself very well."

This mistake doesn't bug me so much -- I guess I'm more serenely detached about my own missteps than about others'.

Further tangent: I thought I had seen every "Seinfeld" episode, most several times, but do not recall ever having seen that "Serenity Now" one. Thanks!

[MarkD83]

I think I am getting a headache from all of this discussion...so can I "beg" everyone to stop or should I "ask" everyone to stop....unless of course this conversation gives Fuke 6 more wins.