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Bob Green
03-06-2007, 05:21 PM
Our first round game with State is 48 hours away so I thought I would try and generate some game discussion. Duke beat State 79-56 during the season, but E. Atsur did not play. State is not a deep team and the unavailability of Atsur significantly hurt the Wolfpack. For Thursday's game, we will be without our top reserve.

On paper, we are much stronger than State with an RPI of 14 to State's 114, and a SOS of 3 to State's 53. We have a 8-9 record versus teams in the Top 50, while State's record is 3-11. Both teams went 4-6 over the last 10 games of the regular season.

How do we beat State? 1) State has the ability to knock down the 3-ball (I validate that statement by referencing their win over Carolina) so we will need to play strong perimeter defense. 2) We must convert turnovers into transition points. 3) We must value the basketball to make the most of every possession and score second chance points via offensive rebounding. 4) Finally, we will need to avoid foul trouble. Thomas and Zoubek must be productive off the bench and they can't be if they are in foul trouble.

So, if we accomplish those four objectives we will advance and get a second chance at Virginia. Go Duke!!!

Let's talk basketball.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Duke15304
03-06-2007, 05:48 PM
If even w/ Azru(sp?) back, and w/ out gerald, i think we win this game, overall, their guards arent that quick, I think greg and jon should be able to get enough pts to make up for GH, even thou that have solid scoring big men, i think josh is ready to bounce back and score some, it will prolly be closer then the first time, but i think we win, and then move on w/ gerald and have a good chance for the upset on Friday

wavelength 450nm
03-06-2007, 08:43 PM
That is how I am looking at this. Duke has played with a lot of heart and has struggled sometimes this season but there is no doubt that we have some talented players.

We have the opportunity to shock the ACC. Now after this season comes the next season, the NCAA. But I sure hope that this team is fully focused on this challenge starting with State. I hope they are reaching for the possibility of an ACC title.

I think we are going to go back to the strength and have an awesome defensive performance against State and I think that Scheyer is going to get the touch for the tourney. The offense will begin to fire on all cylinders - heck we will even hit our free throws. Great defense and some good shooting is the recipe!

dukelifer
03-06-2007, 08:59 PM
Our first round game with State is 48 hours away so I thought I would try and generate some game discussion. Duke beat State 79-56 during the season, but E. Atsur did not play. State is not a deep team and the unavailability of Atsur significantly hurt the Wolfpack. For Thursday's game, we will be without our top reserve.

On paper, we are much stronger than State with an RPI of 14 to State's 114, and a SOS of 3 to State's 53. We have a 8-9 record versus teams in the Top 50, while State's record is 3-11. Both teams went 4-6 over the last 10 games of the regular season.

How do we beat State? 1) State has the ability to knock down the 3-ball (I validate that statement by referencing their win over Carolina) so we will need to play strong perimeter defense. 2) We must convert turnovers into transition points. 3) We must value the basketball to make the most of every possession and score second chance points via offensive rebounding. 4) Finally, we will need to avoid foul trouble. Thomas and Zoubek must be productive off the bench and they can't be if they are in foul trouble.

So, if we accomplish those four objectives we will advance and get a second chance at Virginia. Go Duke!!!

Let's talk basketball.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

State is an odd team- If they get hot they get confidence and can play very well. But most of those explosions have been at home- where their crowd can keep them going. They have really had trouble in the State of Florida. Miami beat them by 15, Fla State by 26. This is all with Atsur in the lineup. They also have a tendency to turn the ball over. A key to a win in controlling McCauley who can do damage on the inside- and he is a very good passer. The good news is that Duke defends the three well and should be able to match McCauley inside with McBob. State's wing players are solid but can be up and down. Costner is the X factor. He is impresive and plays his best against better competition. He had 20 against Duke mostly from the line- and big games against UNC. He is a tough matchup for Duke- stronger that McClure or Thomas and much bigger than Nelson. He seemed to get it in the second half and really pressed Duke. So Duke will need to do a very good job on him. Probably this may mean leaving their wing guys open more and seeing if they can shoot well. State is not a great defensive team and not super fast so Duke should be able to get their points. Barring and explosion by Costner, or lights out shooting- Duke should win. But State has pulled some big games out in the tourney before. They will play with nothing to lose and with an arena of fans wanting Duke to lose- so we shall see.

Channing
03-06-2007, 09:22 PM
Sidney Lowe has instituted a lot of pro sets - this places a premium on strong man to man defense, and not letting your guy take you off the bounce. Fortunately, what has been highlighted as our weakest defensive position - pg against quick penetrating guards - is not an issue in this case. While Atsur is very heady, not only does he not have a lightning fast first step, but he still isnt 100 percent on that leg of his. State goes two deep (effectively) inside with Costner and Caulley - we go 4 deep (McClure, Zoubek, Thomas, and McRoberts). The first three of those will be able to just play D, O from them is strictly gravy. The two big matchups I see are on the wings, with Gavin Grant and Courtney Felz. Both can take their man off the dribble and pullup and shoot - if Demarcus, Scheyer, Marty, McClure or whoever will be guarding them gets in their grill I think we will severely hinder their offense.

just my .02

weezie
03-06-2007, 09:22 PM
I'm saying a little prayer that Josh is ready to dance.

Hey Steven, is your avatar trying out to model the new Nike jersey up there? The shorts looks a little tight.

dukestheheat
03-06-2007, 09:31 PM
bob green,

i do believe the key for duke is to *slow or limit* (can't completely stop) the little Engin Atsur (yes, i thought we could); he's truly the catalyst for State and we need to work him on the D like kryptonite works on Superman.

my denarii, dth.

Bob Green
03-06-2007, 09:46 PM
bob green,

i do believe the key for duke is to *slow or limit* (can't completely stop) the little Engin Atsur (yes, i thought we could); he's truly the catalyst for State and we need to work him on the D like kryptonite works on Superman.

my denarii, dth.

A very valid point. Hopefully, Greg Paulus will have a solid defensive game against Atsur and be our catalyst for a dominating defensive performance. There are several things we need to do right but I believe everyone agrees that a strong defensive performance is priority # 1.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

devildownunder
03-06-2007, 10:13 PM
Our first round game with State is 48 hours away so I thought I would try and generate some game discussion. Duke beat State 79-56 during the season, but E. Atsur did not play. State is not a deep team and the unavailability of Atsur significantly hurt the Wolfpack. For Thursday's game, we will be without our top reserve.

On paper, we are much stronger than State with an RPI of 14 to State's 114, and a SOS of 3 to State's 53. We have a 8-9 record versus teams in the Top 50, while State's record is 3-11. Both teams went 4-6 over the last 10 games of the regular season.

How do we beat State? 1) State has the ability to knock down the 3-ball (I validate that statement by referencing their win over Carolina) so we will need to play strong perimeter defense. 2) We must convert turnovers into transition points. 3) We must value the basketball to make the most of every possession and score second chance points via offensive rebounding. 4) Finally, we will need to avoid foul trouble. Thomas and Zoubek must be productive off the bench and they can't be if they are in foul trouble.

So, if we accomplish those four objectives we will advance and get a second chance at Virginia. Go Duke!!!

Let's talk basketball.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan



I like our chances of accomplishing 3 of these 4. We just don't seem to be that good at converting turnovers into points this year, no matter who we play, so I doubt we'll do that well against nc state. I do think state is one of the teams we can pound the offensive boards against. Hopefully that will make up for the lack of transition points.

I agree with most that we stand a good chance of eeking out a victory in this one. Look for LOTS of half-court basketball in this one.