Best case scenario for this year's team: 2014 MSU?

[scottdude8]

Living in Ann Arbor I unfortunately get overwhelmed with coverage of Michigan State basketball... and I can't help but notice some potential similarities between this year's Duke team and the 2014 MSU team. Michigan State started the year as a top 5 team, had a solid non-conference season, but then had a horrific stretch (losing 7 of their last 12 regular season games) that pushed them towards the bottom of the top 25 (and nearly out of it) that was largely due to having key players, namely senior big man Adrien Payne, out due to injury. Once Payne and others returned to full strength, though, they won the Big Ten tournament, secured a 4-seed in the NCAA Tourney, and made the Elite 8 (and were also a very trendy pick to win the whole tournament). This was also one of those years that there weren't really any "great" or "dominant" teams (hence the UConn National Title).

The similarities, at least to this point in the season, are hopefully clear. So my question is this: if Amile comes back healthy, does anyone see a potential for this team to mirror the trajectory of 2014 MSU? While that team may have been overall more talented than this year's Blue Devils, they also were relatively young (especially by Tom Izzo standards), and actually had a lot more so-called "bad" losses than Duke has had to this point. With as topsy-turvey as the season has been so far, if Amile's return gives us the expected boost and we can secure a 4 seed in the NCAA Tourney I gotta think there's still potential for this team to make a run.

Thoughts?

[OldPhiKap]

Best case scenario:

1. Get in the tournament.
2. Win six games. Seven, if necessary.


Until someone stops us, I ain't skeert.


Hard to compare seasons and teams. The 1983 Cardiac Pack are always my benchmark of a team left for dead a half-dozen times or more in February and March -- but ran off an incredible finish and took home the crystal.

[freshmanjs]

Agree -- the best case is great. I remember an article in 2010-11 season with the headline "This year's Butler will not be Butler" -- it's hard to know mid-season.

[superdave]

There is not a dominant team this year. I dont think there are any really really good teams that would scare me. I do not see anyone getting hot and rolling to the title through really tough Elite 8, Final 4 and title game matchups. I think whoever wins will have some help along the way.

So yeah, I could see this Duke team being in that top group come March, assuming Amile is back and reintegrated by the end of February.

[OldPhiKap]

There is not a dominant team this year. I dont think there are any really really good teams that would scare me. I do not see anyone getting hot and rolling to the title through really tough Elite 8, Final 4 and title game matchups. I think whoever wins will have some help along the way.

So yeah, I could see this Duke team being in that top group come March, assuming Amile is back and reintegrated by the end of February.

I think this is exactly right.

I also do not think it is a foregone conclusion that we make the tournament.

We have a lot of work to do, and some more difficult games than we've had (and lost) on the horizon.

Edit: to clarify, we only have ten regular season games left. Five games we may well be underdogs (UNCx2, Louisville x 2, UVa) and the rest are conference foes which (as this season shows) are no picnic. While I am confident we will get it done, it's far from in the bank.

[NM Duke Fan]

There is not a dominant team this year. I dont think there are any really really good teams that would scare me. I do not see anyone getting hot and rolling to the title through really tough Elite 8, Final 4 and title game matchups. I think whoever wins will have some help along the way.

So yeah, I could see this Duke team being in that top group come March, assuming Amile is back and reintegrated by the end of February.

Totally agree, last year there were clearly dominant teams that oozed excellence, none in that category as of yet this year. Reminds me a bit of the NFL season actually, where there were some good teams, but plenty of obvious flaws and injuries taking their toll.

So yes, if Duke makes the tournament, even if they just squeak in, this down year they can play with anybody on a given night, once Amile gets comfortably reintegrated with the team.

[CDu]

Living in Ann Arbor I unfortunately get overwhelmed with coverage of Michigan State basketball... and I can't help but notice some potential similarities between this year's Duke team and the 2014 MSU team. Michigan State started the year as a top 5 team, had a solid non-conference season, but then had a horrific stretch (losing 7 of their last 12 regular season games) that pushed them towards the bottom of the top 25 (and nearly out of it) that was largely due to having key players, namely senior big man Adrien Payne, out due to injury. Once Payne and others returned to full strength, though, they won the Big Ten tournament, secured a 4-seed in the NCAA Tourney, and made the Elite 8 (and were also a very trendy pick to win the whole tournament). This was also one of those years that there weren't really any "great" or "dominant" teams (hence the UConn National Title).

The similarities, at least to this point in the season, are hopefully clear. So my question is this: if Amile comes back healthy, does anyone see a potential for this team to mirror the trajectory of 2014 MSU? While that team may have been overall more talented than this year's Blue Devils, they also were relatively young (especially by Tom Izzo standards), and actually had a lot more so-called "bad" losses than Duke has had to this point. With as topsy-turvey as the season has been so far, if Amile's return gives us the expected boost and we can secure a 4 seed in the NCAA Tourney I gotta think there's still potential for this team to make a run.

Thoughts?

I think this team with Jefferson is more talented than that 2014 MSU team. I think we have two players better than their best player, and I think our secondary players are better than their secondary players. And yes, I think this team can make the Final Four. They can also miss the tourney or lose the opening weekend.

The reality is that 30 or so teams can make a realistic shot at a Final Four each year. Conversely there are maybe a handful of teams who you can't make a reasonable case they could lose in the first weekend. We are a top-10 team with Jefferson healthy. Maybe not top-5.

[gurufrisbee]

With a healthy Amile, last night is only this team's second loss. One neutral site loss to Kentucky when he flat played bad and then last night where we still put up a heck of a fight against a legit top ten team on the road that played well. Maybe a great team still pulls out the Utah, Cuse, Clemson, and Notre Dame games without Jefferson. I don't really know how anyone could look at a team that lost how much we lost last year and think we would still be as great again. I do still believe if we get healthy with seeing how much Amile and Plumlee and Allen and Jones have all shown improvement from last year and the potential we've seen more than a few times from Ingram and Kennard that you've got a squad that make a run. If Thornton and Jeter/Obi could also show some improvement they could make a really deep run. There are no guarantees, but I actually doubt we'll get as nice of a seed as Mich St did two years ago (they really did not earn that, but Izzo has a track record of having his teams play poorly early). But I think we'll be super dangerous that first weekend. Do you want to be the 2 or 3 seed with this Duke team sitting there as a match up on Sat/Sun? No way.

[Native]

With a healthy Amile, last night is only this team's second loss.

Third. Don't forget Utah.

If we get Amile back in time, we can make a run. Particularly with the rate at which Kennard is developing in his absence.

A rotation consisting of Matt, Grayson, Derryck, Luke, Ingram, Amile, and Marshall should definitely be enough to at least get out of the first weekend in March.

[tbyers11]

Third. Don't forget Utah.

If we get Amile back in time, we can make a run. Particularly with the rate at which Kennard is developing in his absence.

A rotation consisting of Matt, Grayson, Derryck, Luke, Ingram, Amile, and Marshall should definitely be enough to at least get out of the first weekend in March.

With a healthy Amile we would have likely beaten Utah as well. Heck, we were one basket in the last 3 mins of regulation from beating them without Amile and about half a Grayson.