This Week in the ACC: 1/25-1/31

[pfrduke]

We're at the last week of January and only one team has shown separation from the rest - UNC, which has ridden a favorable early ACC schedule (no games yet against Louisville, Miami, UVA, Pitt, Notre Dame, or Duke; just 3 road games) to a relatively comfortable 7-0 start. This week does not change that narrative - the Heels have just a single game, and it's at home against Boston College, which has yet to stay within 20 of an ACC opponent on the road and is going to be seriously in the running for 0-18 this year. This space last year had Virginia losses competing against Virginia Tech wins; while this season lacks the in-state rivalry aspect, UNC losses vs. BC wins could be an equally compelling race to track and my money is on UNC having more losses than BC has wins, even if UNC ends up with no more than 3 losses. BC's just bad. Below Carolina, Louisville has been strong (loss at Clemson notwithstanding) and may even be flying under the radar a bit, in part due to the lack of real marquee wins (taking apart Pitt is the best, and even Duke - where we've been bemoaning a lack of good wins on the season - has a better resume mark than that). And then there are 7 teams with either two or three conference losses. The test over the coming weeks will be to see which of those can establish some separation from the rest and keep pressure on the Heels and Cardinals.

Monday
[11]Miami hosts [18]Duke (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[251]Boston College hosts [45]Florida State (7:00, ESPNU)
[122]Wake Forest hosts [8]Virginia (7:00, ESPN3)

Wednesday
[58]Clemson hosts [47]Pittsburgh (7:00, ESPN3)
[103]Virginia Tech hosts [3]Louisville (8:00, ESPN3)
[72]NC State hosts [60]Georgia Tech (8:00, ESPN3)

Thursday
[40]Syracuse hosts [28]Notre Dame (7:00, ESPN2)

Friday is dark

Saturday
[40]Syracuse hosts [60]Georgia Tech (12:00, ESPNU)
[45]Florida State hosts [58]Clemson (12:00, ESPN3)
[3]Louisville hosts [8]Virginia (1:00, CBS)
[72]NC States hosts [11]Miami (3:00, ESPN3)
[5]North Carolina hosts [251]Boston College (4:00, ESPN2)

Sunday
[28]Notre Dame hosts [122]Wake Forest (1:00, ESPN3)
[47]Pittsburgh hosts [103]Virginia Tech (6:30, ESPNU)

[Troublemaker]

Crazy win for UVA.

Down 7 with about 30 secs left, they won on a banked corner 3 at buzzer.

[Olympic Fan]

And BC makes its best ACC showing of the season.

They only lost by 10 to Florida State.

[FerryFor50]

Crazy win for UVA.

Down 7 with about 30 secs left, they won on a banked corner 3 at buzzer.

They've been barely escaping multiple games. Their season is almost the reverse of Duke's season - in closely decided games, they get the key stops and hit the big shots.

UVA could easily be sitting where Duke is, or worse, but have had the bounces go their way several times.

[devildeac]

Pfft for my reekin' *eacons tonight. UVa trailed 56-64 (I think) and scored 16 points in the last 1:17 (WTH?) and WFU scored 7 while missing 4 of 8 FT (didn't look it up-just tried following it on espn on my phone while out on a walk with Mrs. dd).

[Indoor66]

Pfft for my reekin' *eacons tonight. UVa trailed 56-64 (I think) and scored 16 points in the last 1:17 (WTH?) and WFU scored 7 while missing 4 of 8 FT (didn't look it up-just tried following it on espn on my phone while out on a walk with Mrs. dd).

Thank the Lord that Cardiology is your speciality! :cool:

[JasonEvans]

Crazy win for UVA.

Down 7 with about 30 secs left, they won on a banked corner 3 at buzzer.

Sorta needs to be seen to be believed. I love me some Danny Manning, but Wake just played this horrible. Wake was actually up 7 WITH THE BALL and 20 seconds left, but they promptly throw it away (just hang on and get fouled!!) and they miss 3 out of 4 FTs to give Virginia a chance...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFCa2uvhWn0

-Jason "The comeback starts at about the 1:10 mark" Evans

[akg4y]

It was even better than that...

With 39 seconds to go, we were down 5 with the ball.
Turned it over.
Next possession, missed a shot and Wake rebounded.
Next possession, turned it over.

All in a span of 16 seconds.

...and we still won.

Epic collapse in coaching, free throw shooting, and late game basketball IQ from Wake was what made it possible.

[Bob Green]

Georgia Tech is attacking the Syracuse zone by pounding the ball inside. I'll watch this game until halftime and then switch over to Virginia at Louisville.

[Bob Green]

Georgia Tech shot 4-10 on 3PT FGs to complement a strong interior performance in the 1st half. Tech leads in rebounds 19-18. The Yellow Jackets defense seemed vulnerable to cutting and driving so our wing offense should find room to operate on Tuesday evening.

[devildeac]

Georgia Tech shot 4-10 on 3PT FGs to complement a strong interior performance in the 1st half. Tech leads in rebounds 19-18. The Yellow Jackets defense seemed vulnerable to cutting and driving so our wing offense should find room to operate on Tuesday evening.

I hope you're correct. Please send the refs a memo about the FoM rules ;) .

[Bob Green]

At the under 12 timeout, Virginia leads Louisville 13-5. Louisville has scored a whole five points in just over eight minutes of action. The Cavaliers are playing tough defense but Louisville has missed some shots they have to make.

[Bob Green]

I switched back and forth between the 2nd half of GT at Syracuse and the 1st half of Virginia at Louisville, which means I missed a lot of both games. Syracuse beats GT 60-57 as the Yellow Jackets go 1-8 on 3 PT FGs in the 2nd half. My takeaway from the game is GT winning the rebounding battle 40-35. Duke is going to have to battle on the glass on Tuesday night.

Virginia is up 29-14 on Louisville at the half. Louisville looks horrible on offense.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I switched back and forth between the 2nd half of GT at Syracuse and the 1st half of Virginia at Louisville, which means I missed a lot of both games. Syracuse beats GT 60-57 as the Yellow Jackets go 1-8 on 3 PT FGs in the 2nd half. My takeaway from the game is GT winning the rebounding battle 40-35. Duke is going to have to battle on the glass on Tuesday night.

Virginia is up 29-14 on Louisville at the half. Louisville looks horrible on offense.

UVa finishing a steamrolling of Louisville. Killer D.

[DukieTiger]

Great outcomes for Duke with Clemson and Louisville losing.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Great outcomes for Duke with Clemson and Louisville losing.

The only outcomes I am worried about for Duke involve getting Duke back on the right side of the win-loss ledger. I can't bring myself to pay attention to conference tournament seeding as yet.

[chrishoke]

NCS leading Miami 65-59 w/ 4 min. to go.

[FerryFor50]

Amazing - Miami can't shoot now and they're actually being called for fouls!

[devildeac]

Amazing - Miami can't shoot now and they're actually being called for fouls!

Duke hangover...

But remember, it's still the Wolfpack:p .

:rolleyes::mad:

[CDu]

Amazing - Miami can't shoot now and they're actually being called for fouls!

They are actually shooting 3s like they did against us. They just aren't scoring inside and can't fend off State's bigs on the other side. State's interior D, interior O, and rebounding are better than ours.

[devildeac]

NCSU up 15, under a minute to go. I'm not sure even they could choke this one away.:rolleyes:

[CDu]

NCSU up 15, under a minute to go. I'm not sure even they could choke this one away.:rolleyes:

State just killed Miami inside. They just punished Miami for playing small. If we had Jefferson, maybe we could have done that.

[FerryFor50]

They are actually shooting 3s like they did against us. They just aren't scoring inside and can't fend off State's bigs on the other side. State's interior D, interior O, and rebounding are better than ours.

They were not shooting 2s like they did against us. Plus State got to the line 31 times!

And State's defense isn't really all that much better.

102 in kenpom vs 143 for Duke.

[devildeac]

They are actually shooting 3s like they did against us. They just aren't scoring inside and can't fend off State's bigs on the other side. State's interior D, interior O, and rebounding are better than ours.

~30% today and 35% against us. I think FF50 had it right: 25 PF against them today (with 4-5 guys in foul trouble vs none against us:rolleyes:) with NCSU shooting 31 FT:eek: .

[CDu]

They were not shooting 2s like they did against us. Plus State got to the line 31 times!

And State's defense isn't really all that much better.

102 in kenpom vs 143 for Duke.

That is because they were "shooting" 2s uncontested at the rim.

And I didn't say State's overall defense was much better. I said their interior defense was much better.

[FerryFor50]

That is because they were "shooting" 2s uncontested at the rim.

And I didn't say State's overall defense was much better. I said their interior defense was much better.

Miami hit a lot of mid range shots, too. Especially Newton, who was just 4-13 today. Was 6-11 against Duke.

You said State's perimeter and interior D was better. I agree that their interior D is - they have better depth there than Duke.

[CDu]

~30% today and 35% against us. I think FF50 had it right: 25 PF against them today (with 4-5 guys in foul trouble vs none against us:rolleyes:) with NCSU shooting 31 FT:eek: .

That is literally 1 made 3 difference. And they missed 3 late after my post. A big part of the fouls was (a) they had an inside game and (b) they were ahead late.

State won the game inside. They dominated the glass and Miami couldn't handle them inside.

[FerryFor50]

~30% today and 35% against us. I think FF50 had it right: 25 PF against them today (with 4-5 guys in foul trouble vs none against us:rolleyes:) with NCSU shooting 31 FT:eek: .

And Duke took only 20 3s that game, many coming late in the game trying to get back in.

Duke tried driving and drawing fouls. Guess Larranaga coached Miami not to foul better in that game...

[CDu]

Miami hit a lot of mid range shots, too. Especially Newton, who was just 4-13 today. Was 6-11 against Duke.

You said State's perimeter and interior D was better. I agree that their interior D is - they have better depth there than Duke.

I said nothing about State's perimeter D. And Miami really didn't hit that many midrange shots against us.

[FerryFor50]

I said nothing about State's perimeter D. And Miami really didn't hit many midrange shots.

Oops. Misread interior O for perimeter D somehow. I blame the iPhone and old eyes.

[devildeac]

That is literally 1 made 3 difference. And they missed 3 late after my post. A big part of the fouls was (a) they had an inside game and (b) they were ahead late.

State won the game inside. They dominated the glass and Miami couldn't handle them inside.

Granny Smith vs Gala (IOW, different games, different teams, obviously). How then did NCSU not dominate us inside as we play pretty small (and tired) w/o Amile?

[devildeac]

And Duke took only 20 3s that game, many coming late in the game trying to get back in.

Duke tried driving and drawing fouls. Guess Larranaga coached Miami not to foul better in that game...

Yep, Larranaga stated in the paper the next day he teaches them to "stand up" the dribbler/driver (whateverthehell that means). That old K guy must not know the new "rules." :rolleyes:

[CDu]

Oops. Misread interior O for perimeter D somehow. I blame the iPhone and old eyes.

Yeah our perimeter D is better than State's. Their interior D is better than ours. Especially when we are forced to play a 2-3 zone with guards on the back line. Miami was able to score easily against us in the paint because our backline D in the zone was awful. State didn't have those problems because they are really big (only one guy under 6'7" plays at all). And they rebound well defensively.

And on the other end, they crash the glass offensively well, and their bigs can actually score and draw fouls in the post.

[CDu]

Granny Smith vs Gala (IOW, different games, different teams, obviously). How then did NCSU not dominate us inside as we play pretty small (and tired) w/o Amile?

As you said, different games. We shot extremely well against State and we got Abu in foul trouble. So we somehow outrebounded State. Also, we contained the Cat better.

[devildeac]

Meanwhile, BC has more TO than FG right now:eek:.

[CDu]

Meanwhile, BC has more TO than FG right now:eek:.

In scientific terms, BC is not good.

[sagegrouse]

State just killed Miami inside. They just punished Miami for playing small. If we had Jefferson, maybe we could have done that.


Yeah our perimeter D is better than State's. Their interior D is better than ours. Especially when we are forced to play a 2-3 zone with guards on the back line. Miami was able to score easily against us in the paint because our backline D in the zone was awful. State didn't have those problems because they are really big (only one guy under 6'7" plays at all). And they rebound well defensively.

And on the other end, they crash the glass offensively well, and their bigs can actually score and draw fouls in the post.

Good points, CDu. PLus -- it's basketball -- a game where tall players shoot at high baskets with random outcomes. In taking 55 shots a game the std. deviation is around 8 points. And one std. deviation is a bit conservative to predict results.

[Doria]

Meanwhile, BC has more TO than FG right now:eek:.

Wow, 23 turnovers?! Is that right? How is it possible that they only lost by 27.

[devildeac]

Wow, 23 turnovers?! Is that right? How is it possible that they only lost by 27.

They slowed down the bakery line for perhaps 10 minutes of the second half as I think they had 20 TO about midway into the second half. 23 FG and 23 TO. Pretty impressive:rolleyes:.

[CDu]

They slowed down the bakery line for perhaps 10 minutes of the second half as I think they had 20 TO about midway into the second half. 23 FG and 23 TO. Pretty impressive:rolleyes:.

A balanced offensive attack.

[Furniture]

So was it good for Duke that Miami lost at State?

[gumbomoop]

So was it good for Duke that Miami lost at State?

IMO, we got a little help from both State and FSU yesterday. Both Miami and Clemson are ahead of us in the standings, and would have been further ahead of us had they won.

Since we don't know when Amile will return, we have to assume many of our games will be close, so we might lose a few. Won't be easy to reach top 4 and double bye. So I'm looking at 5th-9th. We have lots of competition for those spots. Any 2-way tie with Clemson, ND, Miami, or Syracuse, they have the advantage.

I'll guess VaTech and FSU won't quite get to 9th, so maybe they can help us by winning at home over teams such as Clemson, Miami, Pitt, ND, Syracuse. I'd appreciate it if GaTech would play poorly Tues night, but then recover enough to beat some of Clemson, Miami, and Pitt at home as the season progresses.

Given the uncertainty about Amile, finishing 6th might be ok. But even that won't be easy, and Duke road wins at GaTech and Pitt would be big. Actually right now any win seems big.

Of course I'd be more ok if we finish 34-6.

[CDu]

So was it good for Duke that Miami lost at State?

Not really. The loss looks "better" the better Miami finishes. So Miami losing to State hurts. And State is bad enough that their win doesn't gain us much luster for beating them. I mean, mathematically it is better because we play State twice, but that benefit is marginal, and probably not enough to shift RPI such that it offsets the qualitative "eye test" of the good loss/bad loss game.

But really, it is probably all moot. We will hopefully get Jefferson back, and we will sell the record with Jefferson as our real resume.

[gumbomoop]

CDu and I took different approaches to answering Furniture's question. I was thinking more about its potential effect on helping us to finish higher in ACC, whereas CDu is commenting on bigger picture and NCAA. I think.

But CDu agrees that he'd be ok with 34-6.

[CDu]

CDu and I took different approaches to answering Furniture's question. I was thinking more about its potential effect on helping us to finish higher in ACC, whereas CDu is commenting on bigger picture and NCAA. I think.

But CDu agrees that he'd be ok with 34-6.

Yeah, if we are talking about ACC standings, gumbomoop is spot on. Losses by folks ahead of us help. If we are talking NCAA seeding, it doesn't make much difference.

[ChillinDuke]

Yeah, if we are talking about ACC standings, gumbomoop is spot on. Losses by folks ahead of us help. If we are talking NCAA seeding, it doesn't make much difference.

I generally agree on both counts (and with both you and gumbo).

I do find myself wondering if, come tourney selection time, most people will view the ACC as a cluster and will sort of default to ACC seeding to determine NCAA seeding? Perhaps I'm out of sync with the typical process. But to be sure, this year feels much more even across the nation and, more importantly to my point, across the ACC than in the recent past. So I'm wondering if things that typically don't manifest themselves in a selection thesis may prove more useful than in recent years.

But I do wholeheartedly agree that, if Amile comes back and we look like a markedly different team, this will all be moot at least for our purposes.

- Chillin

[Furniture]

Assuming Amile comes back shortly and we win some of these difficult schedule games (not all) coming up then I would think we get a higher ranking?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I generally agree on both counts (and with both you and gumbo).

I do find myself wondering if, come tourney selection time, most people will view the ACC as a cluster and will sort of default to ACC seeding to determine NCAA seeding? Perhaps I'm out of sync with the typical process. But to be sure, this year feels much more even across the nation and, more importantly to my point, across the ACC than in the recent past. So I'm wondering if things that typically don't manifest themselves in a selection thesis may prove more useful than in recent years.

But I do wholeheartedly agree that, if Amile comes back and we look like a markedly different team, this will all be moot at least for our purposes.

- Chillin

I expect our team to look markedly different starting tomorrow, with or without Amile. As I mentioned in the Optimist Thread, tomorrow beings a brand new season for these guys. I'm not paying any attention to what the wins and losses of other teams does for our seeding for the ACC or potential seed for the NCAA; if we go out and do what we ought, we won't need to worry about these numbers. We still control our own destiny, with plenty of games against top teams. If we deserve a spot in the NCAAs, we will go get it. If we lose half our remaining games, we are likely not among the best at large teams.

LET'S GO GET IT, DUKE!