Newton_14
01-22-2016, 10:24 PM
Well. I never thought signing up for Phase IV meant drawing the short stick, yet here we are. If you are like me, throughout most of the Clemson game, you felt like we were well on our way to another solid road victory, and with two very winnable games to follow in Cameron, we were well on our way to a 6-0 ACC Start and would head into Phase IV undefeated at the top of the Conference heap, and ready to challenge for a Regular Season title. Until we weren't. Instead we first "lose" the end of the first half of the Clemson game by taking a bad shot too early and that leading to Brandon's 3rd foul plus points for Clemson on the other end, lose the game when foul trouble forces us into a zone Clemson lit up, then repeat the theme against both ND and Cuse. One point on that. There are few things I disagree with K on, and one thing I wholeheartedly agree with him on, is how important it is to "win" the end of the 1st Half of games. Which is defined by either finishing on a small or big run, and/or scoring on the last shot of the half, or getting a stop on the opponent at the end of the half. I fully believe it impacts games. Jimmy Valvano felt the same way. He used to say the most important stretch of a game was the last 5 minutes of the first half and the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half.
At any rate, to sum up Phase III, as we head into Phase IV, we went from sitting pretty to being on the ropes. The NC State and Miami games are super important to how the rest of the season can go. That said, it's on to Phase IV, which will be the NC State game, to the first Battle Of the Blues against the cheaters down the road.
1. Health Health Health
Some scoff that we always put Health as topic 1 but sorry, as we have experienced far too often the past several seasons, Health can make or break a season. Kyrie, Ryan Kelly twice are just 3 examples. So Amile going down had a very negative impact to this team. I remain convinced that had that not happened, we are 18-1 and 6-0. But it did, and this fragile team now has to find a way to scratch out some tough wins to be in at least a decent position when he returns on Feb 6th at home against the Wolfpack :). (No, I have no inside info, but see the injury thread.) In short, we need Amile back, and we need to not have anyone else go down.
2. Rebounding-
CDu had Chase Jeter's development as his second Topic in Phase III and that sort of ties in here. To be Captain Obvious, we are getting killed on the boards, specifically, teams are setting records on the Offensive Glass against us and it is erasing a somewhat improved defense as getting the rebound is a requirement to finish a stop. MP3 is doing the best he can with those short arms, and he needs help. Chase is just not making any sort of positive impact in any phase of the game right now, has become a foul machine, and passed in the rotation by Obi, who has not fared much better in the small amount of minutes he has earned. You never know when the light bulb might come on for a freshman that is struggling. It could happen in this Phase, or it could happen next season. I am also on record though, that it really would not matter much as Brandon is the only 4 we have until Amile returns. I just don't believe we can be effective on the whole, playing any of the bigs together. With that, Brandon, and the guards are all going to have to sell out, abandon the fast break, and crash the boards, giving us 5 guys trying to secure the defensive rebound. It has to be very demoralizing to defend like crazy for 25 seconds, force a miss, only to see the opponent grab it and get 1, 2, 3, 4, etc extra chances to score. ND and Syracuse basically won those games on the offensive glass. Can K do anything in Phase IV to make a dent in the defensive rebounding woes, beyond Amile getting healthy
3. PG Play-
As all of you know, PG play is so critical in College Hoops. Were Tyus still at the helm this wouldn't even be a discussion point, but he ain't walking thru that door. Derryck, after a slow start to the year, started playing really well in the early season tournament, but has been up and down since, losing his starting job back to Matt again. I thought despite the two big 3's in the 2nd half against the Orange, he really looked lost out there against the zone. Very tentative, unsure of himself... do I go? do I not? do I shoot? Pass? Push it? Slow it up? etc. He was just way overthinking it on all of those points and when you think instead of react, especially as a PG, you are begging for trouble. Hopefully the two big 3's give him some confidence heading into Saturday. I'm sure the staff is doing everything possible to help him adjust. I think film study of past PG's would be a great tool, given 99% of his issues are mental, not skill related. The dude has skills in Spades and will be a good/great PG before all is said and done. Will he get back on track in Phase IV and trend upward? If not, we go back to Matt and PG by committee, which is not ideal imo.
4. Collective Mental State
Like I said above, this team is on the ropes. They just went 3-3 in the easiest portion of the schedule, dropping two straight at home in games they desperately needed to win. For the moment, gone are the worries of will our NCAA seed be a 2 or 3, and they have been replaced by worries of "will we make the Big Dance". The jester is on the sidelines in a cast (ok its a walking boot but you get the picture). The schedule is now brutal. The troops are young, thin, and bruised both mentally and physically. Where are their collective heads and how will they respond? Will they fight like crazy, refuse to get blown out, and scratch out wins at State or at Miami or both? Or will they crumble at the first sign of trouble in those games and get run in both? I believe the next two games are the most important Regular Season games in a long time. Last years Louisville game x100. Can Sergeant Plumlee and First Lieutenant Jones rally the troops and will them to victory? Can K work his magic, keeping them intact mentally, and push the right buttons? I have no doubt they will play hard, and give everything they have to give, but can they focus on the task at hand, execute on their assignments, knock down tough shots, and get back on a winning track? I believe in the short term, the mental is going to be even more important than the physical.
5. Thin Rotation-
There is much wailing and knashing of teeth on this one. I am on record in a discussion with CB&B this week, that even if both Chase and Obi were playing well enough to make positive impacts, I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes, in terms of getting the 5 guards/wings sufficient rest. We currently have a 6 man rotation. 5 guards and Plumlee. Brandon is tall and uses that length well, but is still a 6-9 thin guard. K is currently having to start 4 of the 5 guards, and then use the one guard on the bench to sub in for the other 4 guards and try to get all of them the amount of rest they need. Which means none of them are getting the full amount of rest they need, especially the freshman. He is using Obi, and in certain cases Jeter, to try and get Plumlee at least 1 minute of rest per half, and to be honest, Plumlee has pretty much thrived in that model. He has stayed out of foul trouble, rebounded really well, and scored well. Not sure if he could give us any more than he is giving in less minutes. Like I said, it may even hurt us for him to play less minutes. With that, the only way to play a deeper bench and also give all the guards the proper amount of rest is to play a two big lineup for some amount of minutes. While K did do that with Plumlee and Chase in the 2nd half of the Wake game to steal a few minutes due to foul trouble, I'm not convinced that any of the possible combinations can play well enough to help us. Possible I guess, but as of right now I don't see it. Be it Plumlee/Jeter, Plumlee/Obi, Plumlee/Vrankovic, how exactly does it work on either end of the floor? I suppose we could go Zone exclusively on defense, but would it be effective enough? On offense, none of them would be a threat from outside, so teams would just clog the lane on us, and double team key guys. I don't see it, but I am open to being wrong. There are two obstacles though. 1. One of Jeter/Obi/Vrankovic have to improve in a hurry, and actually be able to help as individual players, and 2. K has to find a way to make a two big line up with that collection of bigs work. That is the only thing that prevents us from having to play 4 of the 5 guards at all times, outside of foul trouble forcing it.
6. Can They Turn It Around?
I finish with the 64 Thousand Dollar Question. Which way is this thing going to go? Do they hang in there, play .500 Ball or better until Amile gets back, and then finish strong with him, making this just a bump in the road? Or, does the worst happen, they fall apart, go on a long losing streak, and miss the tourney? Somewhere in the middle? Say they tank until Amile gets back, struggles initially with him, but then turn it around, squeezing out enough wins to salvage the season and get in? I am terrible at predictions, so please don't look to me. However, I will give you my personal thoughts. I believe K will make some tweaks, the guys will rally, turn it around, and get even better when Amile gets back. I base that on the fact they have been right there with a chance to win at the end in all 4 losses without Amile. Despite the rebounding and defense issues (I did not spend much time writing on the defense but I do feel the man to man has improved), these guys can play with anyone. I believe that.
So keep the faith, and if you are at games in Cameron, scream loud and pull hard. This is a team that needs it. They also need their Sr Leader back. Sooner rather than later.
At any rate, to sum up Phase III, as we head into Phase IV, we went from sitting pretty to being on the ropes. The NC State and Miami games are super important to how the rest of the season can go. That said, it's on to Phase IV, which will be the NC State game, to the first Battle Of the Blues against the cheaters down the road.
1. Health Health Health
Some scoff that we always put Health as topic 1 but sorry, as we have experienced far too often the past several seasons, Health can make or break a season. Kyrie, Ryan Kelly twice are just 3 examples. So Amile going down had a very negative impact to this team. I remain convinced that had that not happened, we are 18-1 and 6-0. But it did, and this fragile team now has to find a way to scratch out some tough wins to be in at least a decent position when he returns on Feb 6th at home against the Wolfpack :). (No, I have no inside info, but see the injury thread.) In short, we need Amile back, and we need to not have anyone else go down.
2. Rebounding-
CDu had Chase Jeter's development as his second Topic in Phase III and that sort of ties in here. To be Captain Obvious, we are getting killed on the boards, specifically, teams are setting records on the Offensive Glass against us and it is erasing a somewhat improved defense as getting the rebound is a requirement to finish a stop. MP3 is doing the best he can with those short arms, and he needs help. Chase is just not making any sort of positive impact in any phase of the game right now, has become a foul machine, and passed in the rotation by Obi, who has not fared much better in the small amount of minutes he has earned. You never know when the light bulb might come on for a freshman that is struggling. It could happen in this Phase, or it could happen next season. I am also on record though, that it really would not matter much as Brandon is the only 4 we have until Amile returns. I just don't believe we can be effective on the whole, playing any of the bigs together. With that, Brandon, and the guards are all going to have to sell out, abandon the fast break, and crash the boards, giving us 5 guys trying to secure the defensive rebound. It has to be very demoralizing to defend like crazy for 25 seconds, force a miss, only to see the opponent grab it and get 1, 2, 3, 4, etc extra chances to score. ND and Syracuse basically won those games on the offensive glass. Can K do anything in Phase IV to make a dent in the defensive rebounding woes, beyond Amile getting healthy
3. PG Play-
As all of you know, PG play is so critical in College Hoops. Were Tyus still at the helm this wouldn't even be a discussion point, but he ain't walking thru that door. Derryck, after a slow start to the year, started playing really well in the early season tournament, but has been up and down since, losing his starting job back to Matt again. I thought despite the two big 3's in the 2nd half against the Orange, he really looked lost out there against the zone. Very tentative, unsure of himself... do I go? do I not? do I shoot? Pass? Push it? Slow it up? etc. He was just way overthinking it on all of those points and when you think instead of react, especially as a PG, you are begging for trouble. Hopefully the two big 3's give him some confidence heading into Saturday. I'm sure the staff is doing everything possible to help him adjust. I think film study of past PG's would be a great tool, given 99% of his issues are mental, not skill related. The dude has skills in Spades and will be a good/great PG before all is said and done. Will he get back on track in Phase IV and trend upward? If not, we go back to Matt and PG by committee, which is not ideal imo.
4. Collective Mental State
Like I said above, this team is on the ropes. They just went 3-3 in the easiest portion of the schedule, dropping two straight at home in games they desperately needed to win. For the moment, gone are the worries of will our NCAA seed be a 2 or 3, and they have been replaced by worries of "will we make the Big Dance". The jester is on the sidelines in a cast (ok its a walking boot but you get the picture). The schedule is now brutal. The troops are young, thin, and bruised both mentally and physically. Where are their collective heads and how will they respond? Will they fight like crazy, refuse to get blown out, and scratch out wins at State or at Miami or both? Or will they crumble at the first sign of trouble in those games and get run in both? I believe the next two games are the most important Regular Season games in a long time. Last years Louisville game x100. Can Sergeant Plumlee and First Lieutenant Jones rally the troops and will them to victory? Can K work his magic, keeping them intact mentally, and push the right buttons? I have no doubt they will play hard, and give everything they have to give, but can they focus on the task at hand, execute on their assignments, knock down tough shots, and get back on a winning track? I believe in the short term, the mental is going to be even more important than the physical.
5. Thin Rotation-
There is much wailing and knashing of teeth on this one. I am on record in a discussion with CB&B this week, that even if both Chase and Obi were playing well enough to make positive impacts, I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes, in terms of getting the 5 guards/wings sufficient rest. We currently have a 6 man rotation. 5 guards and Plumlee. Brandon is tall and uses that length well, but is still a 6-9 thin guard. K is currently having to start 4 of the 5 guards, and then use the one guard on the bench to sub in for the other 4 guards and try to get all of them the amount of rest they need. Which means none of them are getting the full amount of rest they need, especially the freshman. He is using Obi, and in certain cases Jeter, to try and get Plumlee at least 1 minute of rest per half, and to be honest, Plumlee has pretty much thrived in that model. He has stayed out of foul trouble, rebounded really well, and scored well. Not sure if he could give us any more than he is giving in less minutes. Like I said, it may even hurt us for him to play less minutes. With that, the only way to play a deeper bench and also give all the guards the proper amount of rest is to play a two big lineup for some amount of minutes. While K did do that with Plumlee and Chase in the 2nd half of the Wake game to steal a few minutes due to foul trouble, I'm not convinced that any of the possible combinations can play well enough to help us. Possible I guess, but as of right now I don't see it. Be it Plumlee/Jeter, Plumlee/Obi, Plumlee/Vrankovic, how exactly does it work on either end of the floor? I suppose we could go Zone exclusively on defense, but would it be effective enough? On offense, none of them would be a threat from outside, so teams would just clog the lane on us, and double team key guys. I don't see it, but I am open to being wrong. There are two obstacles though. 1. One of Jeter/Obi/Vrankovic have to improve in a hurry, and actually be able to help as individual players, and 2. K has to find a way to make a two big line up with that collection of bigs work. That is the only thing that prevents us from having to play 4 of the 5 guards at all times, outside of foul trouble forcing it.
6. Can They Turn It Around?
I finish with the 64 Thousand Dollar Question. Which way is this thing going to go? Do they hang in there, play .500 Ball or better until Amile gets back, and then finish strong with him, making this just a bump in the road? Or, does the worst happen, they fall apart, go on a long losing streak, and miss the tourney? Somewhere in the middle? Say they tank until Amile gets back, struggles initially with him, but then turn it around, squeezing out enough wins to salvage the season and get in? I am terrible at predictions, so please don't look to me. However, I will give you my personal thoughts. I believe K will make some tweaks, the guys will rally, turn it around, and get even better when Amile gets back. I base that on the fact they have been right there with a chance to win at the end in all 4 losses without Amile. Despite the rebounding and defense issues (I did not spend much time writing on the defense but I do feel the man to man has improved), these guys can play with anyone. I believe that.
So keep the faith, and if you are at games in Cameron, scream loud and pull hard. This is a team that needs it. They also need their Sr Leader back. Sooner rather than later.