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Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-19-2016, 03:31 PM
I got a request to resurrect this thread (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34968), in light of the last few games of Duke basketball. Feel free to go back and look at where this thread started and where it ended.

Please, let's keep all responses on this thread positive - even overly optimistic. It worked some magic last year, I don't see any reason we can't do it again!

Go Duke!

Kedsy
01-19-2016, 03:51 PM
I got a request to resurrect this thread, in light of the last few games of Duke basketball. Feel free to go back and look at where this thread started and where it ended.

Please, let's keep all responses on this thread positive - even overly optimistic. It worked some magic last year, I don't see any reason we can't do it again!

Go Duke!

How's this for optimism? The last three losses haven't really bothered me. Nor did the Utah loss. The team hasn't played poorly, we seemed to make nice comebacks in all the games, we were in each of them until the end, and they all came without Amile. I think if we'd had him in all those games, we'd probably be 18-1 right now and deservedly ranked in the top five. Assuming Amile comes back healthy, no reason to think we won't return to that level of play.

I just think we have a small margin for error without Amile. We can't afford to lose a second guy, even temporarily. For example, even without Amile, I believe we would have won the Utah game if Grayson hadn't been sick, and the Clemson and Notre Dame games if Brandon could have stayed out of foul trouble, and the Syracuse game if Luke had even shot 2 for 9 instead of oh for 9 (or even if the ref had counted Grayson's shot at the end of the first half). So I think, in a tournament setting, we have a decent chance to beat anybody. I still harbor hopes of a 12-6 ACC record, an ACC tournament championship, and a decent NCAAT run. Can't say for sure it'll happen that way, but I think we should have a pretty good shot.

BluDvlsN1
01-19-2016, 03:55 PM
We all despise losing ball games, especially consecutively, none more than "K"

We have enough history to draw from to allow for confidence that this is short term, not, season defining.
Last year is not that far in the rear view mirror.

This team is younger( some should still be in high school)
This team is less physically prepared, right now.

They need a chance to grow into this, and they are.
This 3 game stretch we lost by a total of 11 pts and were winable.
A made 3 here or there a turnover, a defensive stop, all of which need work to be sure,

But its doable...

The needs/wants of this team have been discussed at length.
Much like last year..
It's a process as always.
This regular season is going to be a grind,to be sure..
Fouls are going to be an ongoing concern.
We need more player(s) in the rotation

Why I'm an optimist...
These youngsters are winners and in the habit of winning..
They will find their groove, some have already.

Jeter needs to grab this opportunity to get his balance. I've got to believe Nate is working with him.
Derek also, just young and finding his way,I'm sure John's got to be working on this.

Luke is making huge strides.

We have many and varied ways to score the ball.

Amile will come back and contribute to the defensive needs and offensive rebounds,
until then if Jeter and/or Obi can develop to help the depth, could only help as the season progresses.

We have been here before, it's always a process with a young team and this team is young mentally and physically.

This team has us, the most supportive and knowedgable fan base in sports.
We have the Crazies
We have ""K"

What they don't need now is criticisim from us.
They will get the "coaching" from the best.
They already know the program history and are as self critical of the outcomes as any.

What they need from us is unbridled support.
Let's give them that gift of Duke Blue Devil Confidence.

Kedsy
01-19-2016, 04:01 PM
Derek also, just young and finding his way,I'm sure John's got to be working on this.

Well said.

Except I optimistically prefer to spell their names, "Derryck" and "Jon."

BluDvlsN1
01-19-2016, 04:15 PM
Well said.

Except I optimistically prefer to spell their names, "Derryck" and "Jon."

Thanks Kedsy, my edit opportunity has passed...maybe the mods will bail me out!

unclsam1
01-19-2016, 04:39 PM
I felt kind of down after last night's game, but then followed the Duke-Syracuse game by watching Golden State defeat the Cavs by 34 (one time a 43 pt. lead) in their house. Now, if I put myself in the place of a Cavs fan, that is the true definition of feeling down. Duke has been right in its last 3 games and the record will improve as the younger players gain in experience and by a quantum leap when Amile returns.

dukelifer
01-19-2016, 04:53 PM
How's this for optimism? The last three losses haven't really bothered me. Nor did the Utah loss. The team hasn't played poorly, we seemed to make nice comebacks in all the games, we were in each of them until the end, and they all came without Amile. I think if we'd had him in all those games, we'd probably be 18-1 right now and deservedly ranked in the top five. Assuming Amile comes back healthy, no reason to think we won't return to that level of play.

I just think we have a small margin for error without Amile. We can't afford to lose a second guy, even temporarily. For example, even without Amile, I believe we would have won the Utah game if Grayson hadn't been sick, and the Clemson and Notre Dame games if Brandon could have stayed out of foul trouble, and the Syracuse game if Luke had even shot 2 for 9 instead of oh for 9 (or even if the ref had counted Grayson's shot at the end of the first half). So I think, in a tournament setting, we have a decent chance to beat anybody. I still harbor hopes of a 12-6 ACC record, an ACC tournament championship, and a decent NCAAT run. Can't say for sure it'll happen that way, but I think we should have a pretty good shot.

All the losses are explainable- and Duke has been in every game. That said- Duke games often come down to the last few minutes. Good team- bad team- Amile- no Amile if you are within a bucket with a minute or two to go- you have a shot. Then what does it take to win the close game? You need to make shots and free throws and don't make mistakes. Look back at last year-

ND within 2 less than 1 min L
UVA tied 1:30 to go W
Ga Tech up 4 1:20 to go W
Fl State up 4 1:44 to go W
UNC,VT OT wins

Those are 6 ACC games that could have gone any way. Duke won 5 of the 6. This current team is not executing down the stretch. This could turn around but right now- youth/inexperience at the point guard position is a big reason for the 3 L's rather than 1-3 W's.

Doria
01-19-2016, 05:29 PM
I still maintain that losing a couple games or so can be a net positive, provided a) that we don't play ourselves out of a potential, otherwise achievable post-season bid (which we haven't done) and b) that our team keeps learning and improving (which it is). Even in this short losing stretch, I definitely felt that I could see improvement on defense and in our young players' games; even their mistakes seemed better and they often appeared to know they'd made mistakes right away, too.

I am 100-percent okay with a very young team needing time to grow and learn. That's basically the process called life, and I don't begrudge anyone for not being as mature and skilled right away as some of our older players.

mr. synellinden
01-19-2016, 06:02 PM
How's this for optimism? The last three losses haven't really bothered me. Nor did the Utah loss. The team hasn't played poorly, we seemed to make nice comebacks in all the games, we were in each of them until the end, and they all came without Amile. I think if we'd had him in all those games, we'd probably be 18-1 right now and deservedly ranked in the top five. Assuming Amile comes back healthy, no reason to think we won't return to that level of play.

I just think we have a small margin for error without Amile. We can't afford to lose a second guy, even temporarily. For example, even without Amile, I believe we would have won the Utah game if Grayson hadn't been sick, and the Clemson and Notre Dame games if Brandon could have stayed out of foul trouble, and the Syracuse game if Luke had even shot 2 for 9 instead of oh for 9 (or even if the ref had counted Grayson's shot at the end of the first half). So I think, in a tournament setting, we have a decent chance to beat anybody. I still harbor hopes of a 12-6 ACC record, an ACC tournament championship, and a decent NCAAT run. Can't say for sure it'll happen that way, but I think we should have a pretty good shot.

I agree with all this. Of course, it is dependent upon getting Amile back and him having enough time to build stamina, shake off the rust and recondition the whole team to playing with him.

There are just a couple of things that concern me about our recent performance. FT shooting is inconsistent - and there almost always is a tournament game (ACC or NCAA) that can be won or lost at the foul line. The good news, I think is that all our guards are very good FT shooters - with Luke and Grayson being among the best. It is nice to have two guys to get the ball to when you know you are going to be fouled at the end of games. Second, I think we've looked uncertain in end of game situations. These guys are all very young and don't seem to feel comfortable yet in the under two minute, one possession game scenarios. If you go back and watch yesterday's game - Marshall's basket was a brilliant play but was a bit of a bailout for our inability to work for a good shot. And then Grayson's last shot attempt was not the product of the smoothest possession - but if you go back and look closely, Marshall was WIDE open under the basket. All Grayson had to do was pass it for an easy dunk and we would have had a 1 point lead with less than 5 seconds left. Part of the problem is that an inconsistent, inexperienced freshman is our only PG. I hope that we can work on those types of possessions to try to get better shot attempts.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-20-2016, 09:25 AM
Rumblings on another thread of Amile being back 2/6... That would mean we play NCSU, Miami, and Tech (the real one) without him. If we can take two of those three...

jv001
01-20-2016, 09:34 AM
I see us winning the next 3 road games with Coach K coming up with an improved 1-3-1 zone. So far this team without Amile has not done well playing that or any other zone. With the extra days practices, the coaching staff will work a miracle and get the guys coached up on defense(zone). We will slow the game down and that will help with fatigue and foul trouble. Amile then comes back for the home game with the Pack and we blow them out. I take Duke and give the points in the Fantasy Game for 2K and win going away. How's that for optimism? GoDuke!

PackMan97
01-20-2016, 09:37 AM
Please, let's keep all responses on this thread positive - even overly optimistic.

Not a problem! Request fulfilled!

I'm positive that NC State is going to beat Duke this weekend :cool:

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-20-2016, 09:48 AM
Not a problem! Request fulfilled!

I'm positive that NC State is going to beat Duke this weekend :cool:

::finger wag::

Good thing we like you over here!

NYBri
01-20-2016, 09:57 AM
I am optimistic that once Amile returns and returns to full strength, this team will be winning games like the last three instead of coming up frustratingly short. I'm actually pleased that in those losses, we haven't played like we played during the slide last year when it looked like we hadn't a clue. We fixed that and when Amile returns, we have a chance to turn this ship around.

elvis14
01-20-2016, 10:07 AM
Please, let's keep all responses on this thread positive - even overly optimistic.

Here's what I think, [redacted] and [redacted] the [redacted] and [redacted] then [redacted] despite [redacted] odds [redacted] son of a [redacted]. In addition, [redacted] . [redacted] you to all the haters as well. [redacted] it.

I typed what I was thinking but I wanted to follow Mtn.Devil's instructions so I went back and redacted everything that might be considered as negative.

Go Duke!

Lar77
01-20-2016, 10:22 AM
All the losses are explainable- and Duke has been in every game. That said- Duke games often come down to the last few minutes. Good team- bad team- Amile- no Amile if you are within a bucket with a minute or two to go- you have a shot. Then what does it take to win the close game? You need to make shots and free throws and don't make mistakes. Look back at last year-

ND within 2 less than 1 min L
UVA tied 1:30 to go W
Ga Tech up 4 1:20 to go W
Fl State up 4 1:44 to go W
UNC,VT OT wins

Those are 6 ACC games that could have gone any way. Duke won 5 of the 6. This current team is not executing down the stretch. This could turn around but right now- youth/inexperience at the point guard position is a big reason for the 3 L's rather than 1-3 W's.

Couple of other observations:

In two of those games (UVA and unc) we were down and almost out until Tyus (and Quinn) got hot. In the National Championship game, we were down 9.

Our shooting was poor last game. Our rebounding has been woefully inadequate. Shooting will correct itself (our perimeter guys have all shown they know how to shoot); rebounding is a matter of positioning (which has not been good) and effort and some luck.

I still contend that Jeter/Obi/Vrank need to have a more important role than 2 minutes a game so Ingram can go back to the perimeter. A healthy Amile will also allow that flexibility, but even my optimism is tempered about how effective he will be.

It all comes back to communication and rotation. We are doing much better until the first shot goes up. Derryck got beat several times by Silent G on the full court, but didn't get help. That's not our how our defense works.

Al Featherston's article points out reasons to be optimistic. The biggest one is K and the coaching staff don't accept defeat.

Kedsy
01-26-2016, 04:32 PM
Rumblings on another thread of Amile being back 2/6... That would mean we play NCSU, Miami, and Tech (the real one) without him. If we can take two of those three...

Well, we can still take two out of three, right?

But that's not why I came back to this thread. I wanted to point out that in 1988-89, Duke lost four out of five (LLLWL, just like this year) in late January/early February. That team made the Final Four.

Just sayin'.

Billy Dat
01-26-2016, 04:39 PM
This team plays really hard, has some NBA-level talent, and the GOAT on the sidelines. With that combination, I'd never count us out.

jv001
01-26-2016, 08:53 PM
Well, we can still take two out of three, right?

But that's not why I came back to this thread. I wanted to point out that in 1988-89, Duke lost four out of five (LLLWL, just like this year) in late January/early February. That team made the Final Four.

Just sayin'.

Those were some great times. I loved those FF days. Coach K had the guys rocking. I sure have gotten spoiled. But we're still the defending NCAA Champs! GoDuke!

CDu
01-26-2016, 09:09 PM
I definitely think there is reason for optimism, for a few reasons:

1. Our struggles have coincided with the absence of Jefferson. I assume he will be back, and relatively soon.

2. In the absence of Jefferson, Ingram and Kennard have improved greatly, Plumlee has found his niche, and Sllen has cemented his stardom.

3. Jefferson is the ultimate glue guy; an exceptional role player a la Joakim Noah. His return shouldn't cause problems with our offense. If anything, it should help relieve Ingram from his burden as the only PF, and sllow both Ingram and Plumlee to plsy more freely.

4. It helps that there are no juggernauts this year. So even though we have warts, those warts aren't impossible to overcome.

5. We still have an elite offense. So we stand, at the very least, a puncher's chsnce.

6. We still have two freshmen who, to varying degrees, have huge room for growth. That may or may not happen this year, but it could happen this year.

7. Though Ingram snd Kennard have already emerged, I think they both have more room to grow as players too. I have mentioned how I think Jefferson could help Ingram improve. Kennard can certainly get better in terms of his shooting snd decisionmaking.

8. Far worse teams than this one (even without Jefferson) have made the title game (and two have even won it!).

Rich
01-26-2016, 10:19 PM
I definitely think there is reason for optimism, for a few reasons:

1. Our struggles have coincided with the absence of Jefferson. I assume he will be back, and relatively soon.

2. In the absence of Jefferson, Ingram and Kennard have improved greatly, Plumlee has found his niche, and Sllen has cemented his stardom.

3. Jefferson is the ultimate glue guy; an exceptional role player a la Joakim Noah. His return shouldn't cause problems with our offense. If anything, it should help relieve Ingram from his burden as the only PF, and sllow both Ingram and Plumlee to plsy more freely.

4. It helps that there are no juggernauts this year. So even though we have warts, those warts aren't impossible to overcome.

5. We still have an elite offense. So we stand, at the very least, a puncher's chsnce.

6. We still have two freshmen who, to varying degrees, have huge room for growth. That may or may not happen this year, but it could happen this year.

7. Though Ingram snd Kennard have already emerged, I think they both have more room to grow as players too. I have mentioned how I think Jefferson could help Ingram improve. Kennard can certainly get better in terms of his shooting snd decisionmaking.

8. Far worse teams than this one (even without Jefferson) have made the title game (and two have even won it!).

Problems with the "a" on your keyboard? :confused:

gep
01-27-2016, 12:18 AM
I definitely think there is reason for optimism, for a few reasons:

1. Our struggles have coincided with the absence of Jefferson. I assume he will be back, and relatively soon.

2. In the absence of Jefferson, Ingram and Kennard have improved greatly, Plumlee has found his niche, and Sllen has cemented his stardom.

3. Jefferson is the ultimate glue guy; an exceptional role player a la Joakim Noah. His return shouldn't cause problems with our offense. If anything, it should help relieve Ingram from his burden as the only PF, and sllow both Ingram and Plumlee to plsy more freely.

4. It helps that there are no juggernauts this year. So even though we have warts, those warts aren't impossible to overcome.

5. We still have an elite offense. So we stand, at the very least, a puncher's chsnce.

6. We still have two freshmen who, to varying degrees, have huge room for growth. That may or may not happen this year, but it could happen this year.

7. Though Ingram snd Kennard have already emerged, I think they both have more room to grow as players too. I have mentioned how I think Jefferson could help Ingram improve. Kennard can certainly get better in terms of his shooting snd decisionmaking.

8. Far worse teams than this one (even without Jefferson) have made the title game (and two have even won it!).


Problems with the "a" on your keyboard? :confused:

CDu identifies all of my observations... with clarity that I couldn't even begin to project. And, my first thought was "what happened to your keyboard?":cool:

I think the opportunity for Luke, Brandon, and Marshall to grow with the absence of Amile will pay huge dividends going forward. As I've posted in other threads, as long as Amile gets back with 8 or so ACC games left in the regular season to integrate with the team, I think Duke can win the ACCT, get to the NCAAT automatically, and go very far in the NCAAT...

madscavenger
01-27-2016, 02:35 AM
There's a whole lot of ifs in this thread, but by far the biggest if standing in the way is likely the most difficult to overcome. They have to play consistent, effective defense . Fundamentally, this group has a lot to learn. Too often they lose their man, resulting in confusion and a breakdown of team defense, then appear to be just standing around. We're giving up easy buckets, lots of them. This is not a character issue. Both as a group and individually, they have very little on court experience. Compounding this is that there are not enough players to simulate in practice the challenges superior defenses will face. Repetition loses value, if fundamentals are not yet well established.

And certainly, if we could fix the defense, the offense will be much more effective.

While i'm extremely confident that the defense will be significantly improved as the season progresses, you have to have a hat before Coach K can conjure up a championship rabbit.



And yet, there's no place like home. i won't discount the magic of Cameron as hattery.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-27-2016, 08:02 AM
In the name of optimism... might as well assume that K will dig deep over this week off to work on shoring up the defense, healing Amile, and recruiting two PGs and one more beefy power forward before our next conference game.

CDu
01-27-2016, 08:05 AM
Problems with the "a" on your keyboard? :confused:

Typing on an iphone.

JNort
01-27-2016, 01:26 PM
I like this team. Unfortunately for this group they have the misfortune of being the first team to play after we just won a Natty. That puts so much pressure on you from a public view. As fans we automatically expect another repeat of what we just saw. Our expectations are through the roof and we don't like having to alter expectations. That said I think this team is still good without Jefferson (8 seed at worst) but with I think we could be a 3 seed or better.

My main reason for optimism is this, this year's team isn't exactly built to compete (for a championship) right away without a good amount of luck involved. However if we stop and think in terms of future success I think final four(s) are almost a shoo in (yes I'm cocky I know) and a national championship appearance seems very likely in the next 2 years. Why though? Well its as simple as this, we will gain more than we lose over the next year or two.

Despite the things people are saying on here about Derryck I couldn't disagree more. I haven't seen a freshmen pg who looks this good from a potential standpoint since Kyrie and Jay. Now I am not saying he is that good but I think he could be the best right after those. His defense is already good. His midrange shooting is excellent and his 3pt shot is improving. His speed and especially his quickness is probably 2nd in the conference only to Cat Barber. I like his handle and confidence as well but let's not forget the biggest part. He should still be in high school!!!! His biggest issue is decision making and that is usually fixed after a year in many cases and gets better every year after!

Now who is our star player already? Ingram and Allen of course, Ingram is obviously a freak and I don't expect him to return but Grayson I don't see making the jump. At best he gets drafted early 2nd or late 1st so he should be back. Not to often does a guy as good as Allen return and not only that but this is his first year getting big time minutes! He is only a sophomore and can and should improve going into his next two years at Duke. His current play speaks for itself and as with Derryck decision making can be improved. He likes to throw up wild shots or force himself into the paint but even this season he has improved over the last few weeks in that regard.

My next favorite reason why we are built for a good run is one who is causing plenty of arguments on here. That head scratcher is Luke. His mid range shot is solid his handle is solid he has more moves to get a shot off than any college player I can think of and some nba guards as well. He just isn't consistent yet, why is a guy who shoots in the low 30's allowed to shoot so many 3's without getting benched? Because the staff knows he is a great shooter and it's what he was known for in high school as well. I think he gets the consistency or whatever his problem is fixed either this year or in the off season. He might be one of the most intelligent guys on the court I've ever seen. Only other problem I've seen is he is prone to make what I like to call "frustration fouls" typically when he goes into a slump or the team is performing poorly he makes stupid hacks 60+ feet away from the basket. Again... this kid is a freshmen.

Now I'm running out of time so I'll come back later for some others but we still got Matt Jones coming back and I don't see much in terms of improvement for him but we know we got a good leader, spot up 3pt shooter and solid defender in our senior next year.

Next up: The loss of our bigs, incoming freshmen, current bench and depth.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-01-2016, 02:56 PM
Okay... we've won two NCAA Championships since the last time we were unranked, and frankly, we don't deserve to be ranked right now. No one but the biggest zealot can argue otherwise. We've yet to beat a ranked team and are mired in a skid.

Best I can tell, a brand new season starts tomorrow. A week off for rest, practice, health, and scheming. Expectations, rankings, etc are out the window. Time to go earn the things we've been taking for granted. Half of our last ten games are against teams in the top 20. If we can go out there and prove ourselves, build some confidence, win the majority of those ten games - we are a different team in a month when the "real" games start.

If anyone can look at the tea leaves and make the necessary changes, it's our fearless leader. We still have a ton of potential, and if you expect this team to put its tail between its legs and whimper away, I think you are very mistaken.

Come on Duke - let's go out there, win some games, earn our spot back in the rankings, and put ourselves in a position to win some March games!

Let's Go Duke!

Kedsy
02-01-2016, 03:09 PM
Okay... we've won two NCAA Championships since the last time we were unranked, and frankly, we don't deserve to be ranked right now. No one but the biggest zealot can argue otherwise. We've yet to beat a ranked team and are mired in a skid.

Best I can tell, a brand new season starts tomorrow. A week off for rest, practice, health, and scheming. Expectations, rankings, etc are out the window. Time to go earn the things we've been taking for granted. Half of our last ten games are against teams in the top 20. If we can go out there and prove ourselves, build some confidence, win the majority of those ten games - we are a different team in a month when the "real" games start.

If anyone can look at the tea leaves and make the necessary changes, it's our fearless leader. We still have a ton of potential, and if you expect this team to put its tail between its legs and whimper away, I think you are very mistaken.

Come on Duke - let's go out there, win some games, earn our spot back in the rankings, and put ourselves in a position to win some March games!

Let's Go Duke!

I agree. People are looking at our last 10 games and hoping for 6-4 but expecting 5-5, but personally I don't see any reason why we can't go 7-3, or even 8-2. And then follow it up with an ACC championship.

We've lost four games by 5 or fewer points. All four more or less came down to the last minute. We win all four, or even three of four, and we're probably a top 10 team and people are talking about 6-4 in our next 10 games as a floor, rather than a ceiling. For me, suffering a few close losses doesn't change that.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-01-2016, 03:14 PM
I agree. People are looking at our last 10 games and hoping for 6-4 but expecting 5-5, but personally I don't see any reason why we can't go 7-3, or even 8-2. And then follow it up with an ACC championship.

We've lost four games by 5 or fewer points. All four more or less came down to the last minute. We win all four, or even three of four, and we're probably a top 10 team and people are talking about 6-4 in our next 10 games as a floor, rather than a ceiling. For me, suffering a few close losses doesn't change that.

Yes. We don't need a complete overhaul of things as much as a change in attitude and style. We've lost our mojo, so to speak, and Amile's leadership is part of that certainly. But I don't see a team that has lost all chance of still doing great things. We're going to learn a lot about this team over the next few weeks, with or without Jefferson.

CDu
02-01-2016, 03:54 PM
The only disagreement I have with Kedsy is that we have lost these close games to, theoretically, inferior opponents. On paper, those are not games we should lose (with the obvious exception of Miami, but that game wasn't close). Two of them were at home. This team, as it currently is constructed, probably IS a 5-5 or 6-4 team against the remaining schedule, given that the remaining 10 games are much harder than the first 8 were. We will have 5 games against teams that better than we are right now (considering that they are ahead of us on the season, and we've been playing notably worse lately than our full-season ratings).

Now, the reason I am not terrified yet is that there is still the potential that Jefferson returns somewhat soon. And if he does, I think we can go on a run. His game and his presence changes so much about the identity of the team. And on top of that, his return gives us some mystery for opponents. The team will look so different than it has the past month, making it harder to gameplan for us.

DukieInKansas
02-01-2016, 04:26 PM
I always expect them to win. The players and coaching staff have been busy this past week working on the team being a bit more cohesive and involving everyone in the offense. To my untrained/uninformed mind, the team starts finding/using MP3 on offense near the basket for his easy 2s and does well. When they get away from that, they lose their lead and then don't seem to try to get him involved again. (As I said - untrained/uninformed mind - perhaps using MP3 close to the basket is actually taken away as an option rather than left behind by team choice. And yes, if you told me a year ago that I would be seeing MP3 as a strong force in our success, I wouldn't have believed it. But, boy, am I glad it is so.)

Kedsy
02-01-2016, 04:59 PM
The only disagreement I have with Kedsy is that we have lost these close games to, theoretically, inferior opponents. On paper, those are not games we should lose (with the obvious exception of Miami, but that game wasn't close). Two of them were at home. This team, as it currently is constructed, probably IS a 5-5 or 6-4 team against the remaining schedule, given that the remaining 10 games are much harder than the first 8 were. We will have 5 games against teams that better than we are right now (considering that they are ahead of us on the season, and we've been playing notably worse lately than our full-season ratings).

I hear what you're saying but would point out that historically Duke's ACC losses often come in games that are "not games we should lose." In the past five seasons before this one, for example, 12 of our 18 ACC regular-season losses have come against unranked teams, and only 6 against ranked teams. In other words two-thirds of our ACC regular season losses (over five season) have come in games nobody probably expected us to lose. The team seems to hype itself up more effectively against the better teams. So it doesn't necessarily follow that harder games will lead to more (or even as many) losses.

moonpie23
02-01-2016, 05:04 PM
so, i'm confused.....is it OVER? or, NOT over?


all these stats n stuff...

CDu
02-01-2016, 05:22 PM
I hear what you're saying but would point out that historically Duke's ACC losses often come in games that are "not games we should lose." In the past five seasons before this one, for example, 12 of our 18 ACC regular-season losses have come against unranked teams, and only 6 against ranked teams. In other words two-thirds of our ACC regular season losses (over five season) have come in games nobody probably expected us to lose. The team seems to hype itself up more effectively against the better teams. So it doesn't necessarily follow that harder games will lead to more (or even as many) losses.

Right, but note the math there. We have 18 ACC losses in 5 seasons, or less than 4 a year. We have 4 in less than half of this season. One or two losses over the course of a 16-18 game season is totally within reason. Three unexpected losses in four games is an entirely different matter, especially when we have no meaningful wins to turn to for encouragement. The only remotely good win we have was 1.5 months ago before Jefferson got hurt and against a team that was really struggling at that time but has just this month found their stride as a team.

That is not to say we can't go 7-3 or 8-2. Especially if Jefferson plays all of the bigger games. Just that I think 5-5 or 6-4 is a lot more reasonable without more clarity on Jefferson.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-02-2016, 06:42 PM
Duke by 10+ tonight.

Ima Facultiwyfe
02-02-2016, 07:06 PM
Duke by 10+ tonight.

Yup! And the game will never be in doubt. Go guys!

Love, Ima

arnie
02-02-2016, 07:22 PM
Yup! And the game will never be in doubt. Go guys!

Love, Ima

And to go full circle on this thread, we get Len Elmore tonight, always the optimist.

swood1000
02-02-2016, 07:55 PM
Getting back a co-captain who averaged 11.4 points and 10.3 rebounds has got to energize this team!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-03-2016, 07:54 AM
Duke by 10+ tonight.

To be fair, I called that spread before we knew K was out.

Willing to give a free pass on last night - getting the W was all that mattered. Statement game can be against... State.

Let's Go Duke!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-14-2016, 10:01 AM
Anyone feeling more optimistic yet?

GTHC!

CDu
02-14-2016, 11:18 AM
Anyone feeling more optimistic yet?

GTHC!

Not sure how they have figured it out, but the defense that had been sub-150 level (the level necessary to drop us from the 30-40 range to outside the top-125 in less than two months) has suddenly found its stride the last two games. Against two fairly/very good offenses our defense looked very solid. It couldn't have happened at a better time. Let's hope it continues!

53n206
02-14-2016, 03:29 PM
Anyone feeling more optimistic yet?

GTHC!

Cautiously optimistic. This is been a long and winding road.

BluDvlsN1
02-14-2016, 07:46 PM
Anyone feeling more optimistic yet?

GTHC!

Fresh off of our UVA win, with the defense we've been playing. Yes!

nc has had their share of issues recently, they barley escaped BC.

We have a lot to navigate successfully, if we can get to the place where
we have the opportunity, it"s not out of the question.

We have shooter'(s).
Positive thoughts!

5943

HK Dukie
02-14-2016, 09:14 PM
Anyone feeling more optimistic yet?

GTHC!

I'm optimistic that is the case.

And why shouldn't they be? KenPom has Duke at 11th and more than half those games are without Amile. ESPNs BPI has Duke at 6th. And these numbers are rising.

#Riseup

Newton_14
02-14-2016, 09:49 PM
First, thanks for starting this thread. I distinctly recall a conversation in the break room at work with a uncheat fan the day after the first State win. They were all ragging me that week with "NIT, NIT", and "Is K's back hurting yet?"... the usual lunatic fringe/whinybaby portion of that fan base, which makes up, oh, about 98% of the total fan base.

I said that burying us now was premature, it was still a good team, would hold their own until Amile returned, and then would be totally fine. He said "I don't know dude, you got a lot of tough games coming up... UVA, Louisville twice, us twice... you seriously are not going to win any of those games, and will likely lose at GaTech". I said, "a lot of those games are at home, and we will beat GaTech". He replied with "well yall lost to bad teams at home... you aint beating Louisville or UVA"...

I just smiled and walked away. Looking back, Notre Dame is better than people realized, and Syracuse has just been on fire. Even at home, those were not the horrible losses we felt they were at the time, and we really did not play well, especially on defense in either game.

Bottom line, I was optoemistic at the time of that conversation, and I am even more optoemistic now. They are back to playing at a Top 15 Team type level with a vastly improved defense, and an offense that is still very stout with multiple weapons. They can beat any team as they stand right now, and if they get Amile back, they can realistically become a Top 10 type team again.


They will have to earn it in every single game, as none of them will come easy down the stretch, but I believe in them. I really do.

Great thread Mountain Man!

itshoopsbabee
02-14-2016, 10:15 PM
Fresh off of our UVA win, with the defense we've been playing. Yes!

nc has had their share of issues recently, they barley escaped BC.

We have a lot to navigate successfully, if we can get to the place where
we have the opportunity, it"s not out of the question.

We have shooter'(s).
Positive thoughts!

5943

Ummm...minor nit with BluDevlsN1 - on March 4, 2014 Grayson was a senior in high school...signature malfunction?

westwall
02-14-2016, 10:34 PM
Ummm...minor nit with BluDevlsN1 - on March 4, 2014 Grayson was a senior in high school...signature malfunction?

Nah! That just makes Grayson's point production back then even MORE impressive! :)

BluDvlsN1
02-14-2016, 10:45 PM
Ummm...minor nit with BluDevlsN1 - on March 4, 2014 Grayson was a senior in high school...signature malfunction?

Thanks for the correction

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-18-2016, 09:26 AM
Just thought that since the ACC #1 is BACK in play and we knocked off ANOTHER top tier foe (can't quite recall which school) I would remind some folks about this thread.

There's PLENTY of room on the optimism bandwagon, ladies and gents!

CDu
02-18-2016, 10:58 AM
With the degree to which the defense has improved, there is no reason why we can't win the NCAA championship. Not saying we will, or are even likely to do so (we aren't - no individual team is likely to do so). But we can. I still don't know how they did it, but this group went from being a below-average defensive team - not just at the ACC level, but nationally - during late-December through early February to suddenly being an elite defensive team in these last 3 games. If we can keep playing defense like this, we are good enough to beat anybody. That's even without Jefferson or Jones.

Seriously. We just won against a top-10 team on their court while playing 4 guys for 35+ minutes and a fifth guy for 32 minutes. The two guys we're missing, when/if they come back, are more "glue" guys than impact players offensively, so in theory it should be easier to incorporate them back into the team than it would be for a star player.

But we have two of the best individual offensive players in the country in Ingram and Allen. We have a wild card in Kennard, who when on might just be as good as those first two offensively (though he's way more inconsistent). And we're now finding a defensive identity to go along with those offensive weapons.

Two weeks ago, I was skeptical that this team would find its stride without Jefferson. Now, I'm not. They've found their stride. And they are terrific.

Life will get a lot easier when/if Jefferson and/or Jones return, as that gives us more wiggle room on any given night. But last night showed that this team can compete with anyone on any night.

MarkD83
02-18-2016, 11:20 AM
I will join the optimist thread and bring up my reasons for being optimistic

1) Duke does not have a bench, but with the number of commercial breaks, timeouts, the fitness of Duke's players and Coach K's ability to control games, does Duke really need a bench? (5 is enough, down from 8 last year)
2) Tournaments are won by players that can penetrate and take over games in crunch time. I count 2 maybe 3 (Kennard) or 4 (Thornton) of these players on Duke.
3) Tournaments are also won with good ball handling and good decisions at the end of games. I count 4 players that can handle the ball and will highlight that Thornton is now making a lot of great decisions in critical situations.
4) Defense wins championships and Duke has figured out how to defend guards. If you can stop the guards from being effective it does not matter how many big guys a team has, they won't get the ball.

The final refreshing thought came to me while I was reading some of the threads on IC. Folks were complaining that UNC could not stop players from getting to the basket for easy jumpers or fouls. This sounded so reminiscent of DBR threads when Duke lost to Lehigh, Mercer and VCU. It is refreshing to see that Duke has the players that can spread out a team and get to the basket rather than the other way around.

MarkD83
02-19-2016, 01:54 PM
I am embracing the optimist thread and won't let it disappear, so here is an optimistic take on Duke's injury situation.

Having Amile and Matt being injured ensures that the other 5-6 players

1) won't complain about playing time
2) will have ample chance to improve their chemistry on the court
3) won't get tired at practice since they really can't practice 5x5

BTW I believe that not tiring a team out during practice at this time of the year is a true benefit. By now the players should be in good shape so running drills are of no benefit (save your energy for the game).

Having 5 x 5 scrimmages just makes for tired legs and the potential for more injuries.

Game-planning for the opponent is more important than any full-speed activities that you could be doing to fill practice time.

The "eight is enough" team last year definitely benefited from less strenuous practices.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-05-2016, 04:18 PM
I am at peak optimism!

fuse
02-09-2018, 09:10 PM
While I wish I could take credit for it, I thought it was time to resurrect this thread.

For me, right now, I am trying to rediscover the joy of watching a bunch of young men play a sport I love and a coach I admire.

Life is far too short to get sucked in a vortex of negativity because a group of kids who owe none of us anything aren’t performing up to a set of expectations others are imposing upon them.

Let them run their race, and let us all find the joy in celebrating a remarkable group of young men.

Let’s Go Duke!

CDu
02-09-2018, 09:29 PM
Things I am optimistic about:
- Marques Bolden looked GOOD for an extended stretch yesterday. Not only did he look good, but Coach K was talking about it post-game. I hope that is a sign of things to come. If he is a consistent option off the bench, it makes us way less reliant on the superfrosh duo to stay on the floor.
- there was a stretch in the first half where Allen was draining shots. He fell hard late in the first, and disappeared thereafter. But that glimmer gave me hope that the shooter is still there. I don’t expect 2016 Allen to return. I am not sure I even want that Allen. But if he can return to being a confident, 40% 3pt shooter again, it will go a long way for this team.
- We have had chances to win late in all but one game, despite long stretches of very poor play in each. This is in large part because...
- We still have the most talented team in the country

MarkD83
02-10-2018, 06:31 AM
While I wish I could take credit for it, I thought it was time to resurrect this thread.

For me, right now, I am trying to rediscover the joy of watching a bunch of young men play a sport I love and a coach I admire.

Life is far too short to get sucked in a vortex of negativity because a group of kids who owe none of us anything aren’t performing up to a set of expectations others are imposing upon them.

Let them run their race, and let us all find the joy in celebrating a remarkable group of young men.

Let’s Go Duke!

Well said. I believe we are often disappointed when we are too focused on our expectations for the team. This is especially true when we are still in the middle of the season and project what we think they won't accomplish rather than focus on what they have and can still accomplish.

Duke is in the top 4 in the ACC and in-line for a bye in the ACC tournament. They are still also in-line for a top seed (2 or 3, hopefully 1) in the NCAA.

Troublemaker
02-10-2018, 10:25 AM
Pretty much everything is in Coach K's hands. (For most Duke fans, I think that is an optimistic statement and therefore I'm in the right thread.)

Defense? To start off with, we have a good zone. Coach K has called it such and I agree. Does it work in all situations against all opponents? Of course not, but it IS a good zone. Even now, if Coach K decided to play every single defensive possession for the rest of the season in zone, Duke would likely finish top 40 in defense. At any point in time, Coach K could just go to that (from his perspective) desperate plan, and it would work. If you agree with me, this is an obvious point of optimism in that there is a solution up his sleeve.

M2M defense? I actually think Coach K found a working formula when we went 7 consecutive games holding an opponent under 1 point/possession. Roughly, the formula is ball pressure + icing + mixing in big man drops. It's just that (1) Coach K went away from the formula against SJU and UNC, and (2) the formula is untested against good offenses. So, what I hope to see is (1) Coach K resume using the formula immediately against GaTech tomorrow, and (2) Coach K continue to use the formula against good offenses and/or guards that threaten him on film like SJU's Ponds. Remember, when Coach K went away from the formula and played defense differently, we stunk on defense against UNC and SJU. So, it behooves him to try the formula on good offenses and threatening guards as well. Because his alternative plans stunk.

And IF the formula I endorse fails against good teams or great guards, we can always fall back to the zone that's up the sleeve.

Trevon? If he doesn't improve, Coach K can always just bench him. If it comes to that, I would prefer Goldwire. Essentially I prefer a PG's handle at the 1. But, sigh, yes we could even go with Grayson at the 1 and start Alex on the wing, although it'll make us vulnerable against certain teams that pressure the ball.

To summarize, I think everything is in Coach K's hands. I don't believe our problem is "effort" or "heart"; I think those are just sports cliches. 95% of our problems boil down to (1) Coach K not consistently playing a defensive scheme that maximizes the size, length, and athleticism of the roster and (2) very shaky point guard play. You solve those two things, and Duke will play like a 1 seed even if we're not a 1 seed in the postseason.

UNCfan
02-10-2018, 10:51 AM
I believe putting pressure on the ball to reduce passing windows is the biggest improvement any struggling defense can make. You guys can outscore anyone. You just need better on-ball defense more consistently throughout the game, then the switching issues become less prevalent. Technique can be taught and success will bread the pride they need to fuel the effort. Playing more people will be needed to maximize this effort. There is still time for you to pull it together and get a one seed. Win out from here, including the ACCT, and it is well within reach. OMG, what just happened?

dukelifer
02-10-2018, 12:32 PM
I have seen very good Duke teams falter down the stretch and fair Duke teams make a late season run. Things can click and teams can get hot. We will just have to wait to see what happens. The team has the elements and an improving bench. It could happen even with a few losses. Maybe this team will be better as a chaser than the ones being chased.

devildeac
02-10-2018, 12:32 PM
I believe putting pressure on the ball to reduce passing windows is the biggest improvement any struggling defense can make. You guys can outscore anyone. You just need better on-ball defense more consistently throughout the game, then the switching issues become less prevalent. Technique can be taught and success will bread the pride they need to fuel the effort. Playing more people will be needed to maximize this effort. There is still time for you to pull it together and get a one seed. Win out from here, including the ACCT, and it is well within reach. OMG, what just happened?


You left the dark side?

;)

dukebluesincebirth
02-10-2018, 12:52 PM
Another reason for optimism for this particular season and team...as I sit here and watch #1 Villanova losing at home to an unranked team, I’m reminded that there’s no dominant team in college basketball right now. The big trophy is still completely up for grabs. While Duke may have its problems, they’re still not too far behind any team in the nation. Everyone talks about this historic UVA defense, and we could have easily beaten them. We gave UNC life by turning it over. We know we can beat them. This Duke team has not responded well to hot shooters or teams making big runs at them. They can develop a tougher mindset in the next few weeks. It mostly mental. If the mindset develops, it will translate to the court. Instead of panicking or folding up the tent, they’ll respond with more resilience in those tough situations. They haven’t yet met their challenges head on, but maybe they will. We shall see.

jv001
02-10-2018, 01:20 PM
I know that we've lost 3 of our last 4 games but I really feel that things are about to change.
First: Marques, Alex and Jack have gotten some pretty productive minutes and I think Javin will soon follow. That is if his injury is behind him. This gives us a good bench in case of foul trouble or God forbid another injury.
Second: We have some very astute posters on DBR and if they can see the obvious problems that our freshmen are having, you know that our great coaching staff can see it as well. So, I think we will see improvement in defensive rebounding, good point guard play and better defense.
Third: I don't think effort has been a problem, but I believe we'll see more team energy/team support from our guys. I want to see more enthusiasm from our guys when a good play is made. Especially at dead ball times.
Fourth: I think Grayson is about to put up some good numbers. I know his all-around game has been good but his shooting is off. We saw a glimpse of a turnaround in the first half against the cheats and I believe he will begin to put up some good point totals.

I also think that by ACCT time the media will once again be talking about how Duke is now one of the 3 or 4 favorites to win it all.

How's that for positive thinking. God bless and GoDuke!

weezie
02-10-2018, 01:34 PM
Yeah!!! What jv001 said ^^^.

And, as another of my good chums here, 91devil, also maintains, "Back DUKE or Back Off!"

jv001
02-10-2018, 01:41 PM
Yeah!!! What jv001 said ^^^.

And, as another of my good chums here, 91devil, also maintains, "Back DUKE or Back Off!"

Now I like that weezie. I'm all in!! GoDuke!

Furniture
02-10-2018, 02:03 PM
All in!!!

Devilwin
02-10-2018, 02:55 PM
If they would gel, they can certainly win it all. No doubt.

jv001
02-27-2018, 02:02 PM
It looks like we need this thread back on the front pages. Lot's of doubting debbies on DBR at this time. We just went 5-1 and saw our defense climb from the 100+ range to 13. Now let's send the cheats back to where they belong. 9-F you cheating frauds. GoDuke!

Billy Dat
02-27-2018, 02:12 PM
It looks like we need this thread back on the front pages. Lot's of doubting debbies on DBR at this time. We just went 5-1 and saw our defense climb from the 100+ range to 13. Now let's send the cheats back to where they belong. 9-F you cheating frauds. GoDuke!

I agree. We're more than fine. Big game this weekend but as long as everyone is available and healthy, I think we continue to re-integrate Marvin and settle on a solid rotation. The defense has improved dramatically, the bench is improving at the same time, the runway is getting shorter but I have faith.

Ultrarunner
02-27-2018, 02:19 PM
I agree. We're more than fine. Big game this weekend but as long as everyone is available and healthy, I think we continue to re-integrate Marvin and settle on a solid rotation. The defense has improved dramatically, the bench is improving at the same time, the runway is getting shorter but I have faith.

And we will get to play with some rest. I'm betting that the jump shots fall a little better with legs that haven't played four games in nine days against four top-50-ish (KenPom has 'Cuse at 51 today) teams.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-27-2018, 02:45 PM
It is amazing what difference two points make. Or a half second. You would think if there were an extra half second last night, we would be somehow a vastly different team.

We are still a title contender! Let's go get banners!

chrishoke
02-27-2018, 02:58 PM
In an extreme show of optimism, I just purchased final four tickets in San Antonio. Go Devils.

dukelifer
02-27-2018, 03:17 PM
It is amazing what difference two points make. Or a half second. You would think if there were an extra half second last night, we would be somehow a vastly different team.

We are still a title contender! Let's go get banners!

Duke is definitely in the mix- but end of half and game execution has been an issue all year. That is what separates teams that move on from those that do not since one or perhaps all games will be close. Blowouts throughout are rare in the tourney.

Duke31122
02-27-2018, 03:44 PM
To me, Duke is more than fine. Did last night hurt, yes. However we just got Marvin back. As a team we had one practice with Marvin since he’s been back. Between being tired and not having a chance to practice to get Marvin back into the rotation, there was a lot to deal with the last two games.

Last night we played a hungry Vt team, at home, on senior night, desperately needing a win to get into the NCAA. When we go to the ACC and NCAA tourney, this team will flourish. One because we will have had two extended breaks between VT and UNC and UNC and ACC tourney. This will give us time to practice and get the offense where it needs to be.

Right now the defense is one of the best in the country. In 2015, that was a concern this time of year. The Offense can easily be corrected with practice time and rest. K is big on practice time. I trust the knowledge of K, Capel, and the staff to get the offense where in needs to be. The guys are bought into the program, you don’t make this much progress especially on the defensive end without guys buying in.

From here on out we have a home game and neutral site games (barring a South Carolina like draw). This team is battle tested and has grown immensely in a couple of months. We have a great team leader and coach. Duke will be fine.

Wander
02-27-2018, 03:45 PM
Since the UNC loss, we've accomplished exactly what we needed to by hugely improving the defense and going 5-1. I think Duke, Kansas, and Virginia are the top teams right now.

UrinalCake
02-27-2018, 03:46 PM
It is amazing what difference two points make. Or a half second. You would think if there were an extra half second last night, we would be somehow a vastly different team.

If there had been an extra half-second on the clock, Grayson probably just takes one more dribble before shooting. But I know what you mean... if VT's last shot had hit the rim rather than air-balling, Carter likely grabs the board and we win.