Is this Duke team a better offensive team than last years Championship team?

[BigZ]

I wanted to do some research comparing last years Championship team and this team. While this team has a long way to go still I think this team has more offensive punch than last year's team.

Last Years top 3 Freshmen averaged. 41.7 points / game while being most of the entire offense outside of the 15.3 points / game provided by Quinn Cook. Last season Plumlee, Allen, Jones and Jefferson averaged a total of 18.7 points / game.

This Years top 3 Freshmen average a total of 37.3 points / game. Those 3 freshmen over their last five games have averaged 47.1 points. This season also comes with a huge jump in production from other players. Allen is average 16.2 points more this season, 8.9 more for Jones, 5.3 more for Jefferson and 3.7 more points per game for Plumlee.

I wanted to make these points to illustrate that this team very much is a National Title contender this season, especially if you consider that last years Duke Team, Kentucky Team and Wisconsin Teams are likely better than any team you will see this season.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I feel this team minus Jefferson is a good team, ranked 10-14. With him... well, let's say it is better.

[wavedukefan70s]

A few tweeks get hot at the right time.yes i believe we can.

[jbay201]

definitely especially with the new rules encouraging driving to the basket and guard play.

We have 5 guys that have the ability to take it the hole on any play as well as the ability of those players to knock down 3's at a decent clip. Add to that the best coach in basketball and we have a strong chance to be playing in a NC game again!

[gurufrisbee]

A couple games ago I did mention in another thread how this team's offensive ball movement was as good as I could ever remember a Duke team. I still think so. Makes this offense very dangerous because we're always getting good looks - and we have some very good shooters.

[Saratoga2]

I wanted to do some research comparing last years Championship team and this team. While this team has a long way to go still I think this team has more offensive punch than last year's team.

Last Years top 3 Freshmen averaged. 41.7 points / game while being most of the entire offense outside of the 15.3 points / game provided by Quinn Cook. Last season Plumlee, Allen, Jones and Jefferson averaged a total of 18.7 points / game.

This Years top 3 Freshmen average a total of 37.3 points / game. Those 3 freshmen over their last five games have averaged 47.1 points. This season also comes with a huge jump in production from other players. Allen is average 16.2 points more this season, 8.9 more for Jones, 5.3 more for Jefferson and 3.7 more points per game for Plumlee.

I wanted to make these points to illustrate that this team very much is a National Title contender this season, especially if you consider that last years Duke Team, Kentucky Team and Wisconsin Teams are likely better than any team you will see this season.

Did you compare the first games for this team against the entire season for last years team? If so, wouldn't it make more sense to compare this after the teams played more of the schedule, as things tend to get more difficult as the season progresses into the heart of the ACC?

[smvalkyries]

I don't think you can compare them. It's like trying to compare pre three point shot teams to post three teams. Last year teams were allowed to play defense and did. This year only post players can play defense. FOM works both ways benefitting Duke because our coach is smarter, our drivers shoot free throws better and everyone can drive under these rules but hurting us because we can't play perimeter defense either and we are going to be pressed by fouls all year esp w/o Jefferson. Also I predict by year end almost everyone will be playing zone esp against us.

[BD80]

Funny thing, our team is one of the nation's best in points per possession, but our coach has a reputation for being a defensive coach.

Well, more of a rep for being a winning coach, but still ...

How long until calipari takes credit for Duke's success, claiming everyone learned how to drive the basket from him?

[Wander]

We have a very good offensive team, maybe even a good enough offensive team to get to the Final Four, but the lack of anyone close to Okafor in the post on offense makes the answer a big "no."

[MarkD83]

Funny thing, our team is one of the nation's best in points per possession, but our coach has a reputation for being a defensive coach.

Well, more of a rep for being a winning coach, but still ...

How long until calipari takes credit for Duke's success, claiming everyone learned how to drive the basket from him?

I think his full name is John "Naismith" Calipari, so he should take credit :)
I mean he has already redefined that winning is more draft picks rather than more points than the other team.

[fuse]

Last year's team brought a variety of looks on the offensive end- pure post play, drive and kick, etc. Said differently, Jahlil, Justice, Quinn, Tyus all brought something different to the table.

This year's team is so guard oriented that we may not be one dimensional and it is not unreasonable to think if you can stop Grayson, you can stop Luke, Matt, Thornton. It's unlikely all four have a cold/off night at the same tme or that there are many teams that have guards that can shut down 2-3 positions consistently. Ingram is really growing into the X factor a lot of the experts predicted at the beginning of the season. I hope he continues to be tough with the minutes he is playing and does not hit a wall similar to Jabari playing a bit out of position.

I think we have the firepower to hang with almost anybody.
How we are able to stay healthy and improve defensively will be key.

If our defense can improve at the right time like last year's team, it could be another special season.

[wavedukefan70s]

I think last night was a good guage of the teams resolve and determination. That alone can get you pretty far.a little more development from jeter and amile back may be just enough.

[WillJ]

I am unaware of any other team that has three players - Ingram, Allen and Kennard - who are so hard to guard under the new rules.

[COYS]

This is an interesting question. Last year's team was running away in the KenPom offensive efficiency category for the first part of the year. Interestingly enough, though, the offense cooled off a bit ("cooled off" is a relative term, it was still devastating) when the defense started to soar. While I didn't take screen shots or anything, I recall the adj KenPom efficiency being around 123.5 or so at its high water mark before settling at 121.6 for post tourney numbers. Wisconsin was the team that actually ran away with the offensive adj efficiency title, finishing with a truly ridiculous 127.9 rating. I know comparing KenPom across years is difficult since each season the ratings are adjusted relative to the teams from that season, but that is far and away the highest offensive rating in the KenPom era. Fortunately for us, they never figured out how to stop Grayson or Tyus on the other end of the floor.

This season, our offense currently sits at 121.0, which is good for the top spot at the moment but should also put into perspective just how good last year's team was on the offensive end, even if they didn't finish the season ranked number one. Many other posters (myself included) have noted how good coach K is at getting his teams to score. The staff has made some amazing adjustments to keep the offense efficient in the absence of Amile. It's hard to say whether or not the team can continue flying this high for the rest of the season, but they are definitely within striking distance of being better than last year's team. The fact that we are even comparing a team with two lottery picks and a sweet shooting senior point guard to this year's squad with only one likely lottery pick, a reclassified freshman, and another freshman guard ranked in the 20's all getting major minutes is a testament to how much of a master Coach K is at putting his guys in a position to succeed. A K coached Duke squad being good on offense is about as reliable as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west. We should enjoy it.

[pfrduke]

We've already had two worse offensive efficiency performances this season (against Kentucky and Utah) than we had all of last season. Last year's team failed to hit a point per possession only 3 times all season, and we've done it twice before we get to the hard part of the schedule.

[CDu]

The answer to that question for me is this: no. These guys are terrific, and are the #1 offense in the country as of right now. But they are scoring slightly less efficiently than last year's team (adjusted offensive efficiency of 121.0 so far this year versus 121.6 last year) despite not having faced the toughest part of the schedule yet (as compared to last year's full season).

But it's certainly an elite offensive team. The funny thing for me is that there was lots of hemming and hawing over where the points would come from on this team. Well, the answer appears to be "from almost everywhere." It's a really good offensive team, and just a so-so defensive team. Of course, some of the defensive struggles are a result of losing Jefferson, so it isn't necessarily fair to compare to preseason expectations defensively. But the offense has been terrific from day 1.

[tux]

The answer to that question for me is this: no. These guys are terrific, and are the #1 offense in the country as of right now. But they are scoring slightly less efficiently than last year's team (adjusted offensive efficiency of 121.0 so far this year versus 121.6 last year) despite not having faced the toughest part of the schedule yet (as compared to last year's full season).

But it's certainly an elite offensive team. The funny thing for me is that there was lots of hemming and hawing over where the points would come from on this team. Well, the answer appears to be "from almost everywhere." It's a really good offensive team, and just a so-so defensive team. Of course, some of the defensive struggles are a result of losing Jefferson, so it isn't necessarily fair to compare to preseason expectations defensively. But the offense has been terrific from day 1.


Right. But last year's team struggled defensively as well, until they sorta figured it out for the stretch run. I.e., I think last year's team had the talent to be very good defensively but needed time to become competent on that end of the floor. This year's team is good enough offensively to hang with anyone, but w/o Amile we are more susceptible to a poor shooting night IMO.

So the question to me is if this team can take steps to become better defensively. Okafor was not a great rim protector or rebounder. I think an experienced Marshall has the chops to provide that component. Winslow was the X-factor last year. And this year, Thornton seems to have more natural on-ball skills defensively than Tyus or Quinn. Brandon, with his length and shot blocking, provides a little of what made Winslow so good and brings some unique things as well. Honestly, it's hard for me to see why this year's team can't become as good defensively as last year's team. Step 1: We need Amile back and healthy.

Finally, just thinking about the two teams, the biggest differential to me is having an elite PG in Tyus versus a good, but still evolving PG in Thornton. When things got tough last year, it was often Tyus who really kept the team pointed in the right direction...

[BigWayne]

definitely especially with the new rules encouraging driving to the basket and guard play.

We have 5 guys that have the ability to take it the hole on any play as well as the ability of those players to knock down 3's at a decent clip. Add to that the best coach in basketball and we have a strong chance to be playing in a NC game again!

It all depends on how the officiating progresses during the conference games and into the tournaments. Especially with AJ on the bench, we saw last night how vulnerable this team can be to foul trouble.