MBB: Duke 81, BC 64 Post-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Put your post-game thoughts here.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

A few jitters to start, a few missed FT's and 3's, but a solid first road win for our Devils! LGD GTHc!

[Kfanarmy]

That was some pretty ugly basketball, aside from about 4 minutes in the 2nd half. Defense consistently out of position.

[arnie]

Good neutral court win. Looking forward to playing on the road and an ACC crowd against WF this Wednesday.

[TKG]

I know we are early in the season but this team reminds me of the Jabari Parker team; potential offensive explosion every time they step on the court but unable to stop dribble penetration and the pick-and-roll.

[CameronDuke]

Good first "road" win of the season although BC's home crowd sounded like a library for most of the game. Wake Forest will surely be a more rabid road crowd Duke will face. Ingram is starting to come into his own and his ability to utilize his length inside for shots over smaller defenders and his touch from deep are really advanced for a player so young. It is nice to have a guy like Kennard to come off the bench and give us 17. Matty and Grayson continue to provide solid leadership and scoring as well as hustle and conceptual skills defensively. Thornton was a bit off tonight (played just 15 minutes with 1-2 shooting and an assist) but still seems to have his heart in the right place and appears mature as a person. Our inside scoring and interior defense are still a bit of a chink in our armor but MP3 and Jeter give us hustle as well and an occasional bucket or two inside when set up in the right position by driving guards. Any win in the conference counts the same and road wins are especially nice. This may seem like a ho hum, manufactured ACC victory we have all been accustomed (spoiled) to seeing but for a team that starts two freshmen and a sophomore and brings two more freshmen off the bench, this was a solid effort to grasp what Coach K wanted to do.

Can't wait to see how we come out against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem.

[duke4ever19]

Good neutral court win. Looking forward to playing on the road and an ACC crowd against WF this Wednesday.

Neutral is right. Plenty of pro-Duke cheers this afternoon. Surprised how empty the place was considering Duke was the opponent.

[devildeac]

Neutral is right. Plenty of pro-Duke cheers this afternoon. Surprised how empty the place was considering Duke was the opponent.

Must have been rather deflating to the few Boston folks in attendance:rolleyes:.

[Saratoga2]

The starting lineup seemed to have communication issues with the TO bug impacting Derryck making passes that weren't there and Brandon initially a little sloppy as well. Even when he came back in during the second half Derryck didn't seem to be over the jitters and wound up sitting a lot. He also had multiple fouls but I think it was the carelessness with the ball that sat him down. That put a lot of pressure on Matt to be the primary ball handler. He had some problems but did an acceptable job overall.

I thought BC played a MTM that stayed in closer to the basket, which cut off a lot of our slashing opportunities. Our 3 pt shooting was cold so along with the TO's we were struggling early. We got steals and rebounds and got fast break opportunities which helped us pull away. Brandon showed a variety of scoring methods and BC couldn't defend him.

Our best lineup was with Grayson, Brandon, Luke, Matt and Marshall. They are just better with the ball, not as many careless TO's, good passing, 4 very good scorers and decent defense. Luke is a clever scorer and if his 3 goes down more regularly, he could average 20. Brandon is a freak of nature. So smooth while Grayson just takes it to the defense. Matt will get his in any way the defense makes available. Great to see them coming along. Chase had a few good plays so perhaps he will build on that and give us an option should Marshall tire or get into foul trouble.

I didn't look at the stats as yet, but it seemed as though our 4 bigger guards did a good job of rebounding. BC is not a very good team, but it was still a road win and the first ACC matchup for our freshmen.

[arnie]

Must have been rather deflating to the few Boston folks in attendance:rolleyes:.

Also deflating to ACC fans - BC hosting the defending NCAA National Championship Team and no interest in Boston. This simply doesn't happen in any other venue. Can we "trade" them in for UCONN or simply drop back to a 14 team bball conference and apply more pressure to ND on football side?

[ChillinDuke]

...

Our best lineup was with Grayson, Brandon, Luke, Matt and Marshall. They are just better with the ball, not as many careless TO's, good passing, 4 very good scorers and decent defense. Luke is a clever scorer and if his 3 goes down more regularly, he could average 20. Brandon is a freak of nature. So smooth while Grayson just takes it to the defense. Matt will get his in any way the defense makes available. Great to see them coming along. Chase had a few good plays so perhaps he will build on that and give us an option should Marshall tire or get into foul trouble.

...

It's not really time to throw in the towel in terms of development, especially remembering that last year's team went 2-2 in the ACC before having that breakout game at Louisville. And even then, they proceeded to go 4-3 in conference before their next breakout game at UVA which was the gateway to 12 straight ACC wins. So, there is certainly still time for this team to find themselves.

But I find myself agreeing (admitting?) with Saratoga's post above. Derryck just isn't coming along as fast as we probably need him to for this particular team. And don't take that as some major dig at Derryck - it's not at all. My point is more that I think our best chance at beating teams (and beating teams consistently) is with the 4 guards mentioned above in a lineup together. There is so much offensive firepower in that lineup - any of those 4 can go for 20 in just about any game. And if two of them do, we have good odds to win the game.

Given where our defense is right now - I'm just starting to think we are a long ways away from dramatic improvement (without Amile in the lineup). I think our best shot is to just double down on offense and see if we can outscore teams.

Of course, some incremental gains in our defense and/or Chase and/or Marshall and/or Derryck would help and perhaps help greatly. But standing at today and looking out into the future, I think my best plan would be to go with those 4 and Marshall and see where we land.

Interested to see where K goes with this team.

- Chillin

[mo.st.dukie]

But I find myself agreeing (admitting?) with Saratoga's post above. Derryck just isn't coming along as fast as we probably need him to for this particular team. And don't take that as some major dig at Derryck - it's not at all. My point is more that I think our best chance at beating teams (and beating teams consistently) is with the 4 guards mentioned above in a lineup together.

- Chillin

I disagree about Derryck. This was his third straight start and he was coming off a great game against LBSU. Clearly K has confidence in him to give him those three starts. He's coming along quite nicely but it's always important to remember with all players that progress is not linear, it's full of 1 step forward, 2 steps back and 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Derryck had a bad game today but prior to this game he was showing excellent progression and my guess is that we will see him have another good game sometime soon. Derryck has a different game compared to our other guards and brings some great speed and on-ball defense. His jumpshot has been really solid as well and he's shooting well from 3. He'll be an important piece to this team and will have some games where us fans will be very happy he's on our side.

[dukelifer]

I disagree about Derryck. This was his third straight start and he was coming off a great game against LBSU. Clearly K has confidence in him to give him those three starts. He's coming along quite nicely but it's always important to remember with all players that progress is not linear, it's full of 1 step forward, 2 steps back and 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Derryck had a bad game today but prior to this game he was showing excellent progression and my guess is that we will see him have another good game sometime soon. Derryck has a different game compared to our other guards and brings some great speed and on-ball defense. His jumpshot has been really solid as well and he's shooting well from 3. He'll be an important piece to this team and will have some games where us fans will be very happy he's on our side.
I agree. Derryck will have better games but there will be times when he will sit- depending on the matchups and Freshman mistakes. He is not Tyus but he is capable of being a big contributor.

Duke was the only road team to win in ACC play today. It is not easy to win impressively on the road- particularly with a bunch of very inexperienced players. I was happy to see Luke turn a poor shooting first half around. Ingram is clearly a special player. I was not sure he was ready to go pro- but the ceiling is unbelievably high for that guy. He will be leaving as his potential is too great- even if his body is not ready for the next level. Grayson is a bit crazy. He needs to be careful out there- cannot afford to lose him. The team is fun to watch but it starts getting hard in the ACC. Wake is playing well. Never an easy place to play and their fans will be loud and intimidating.

[BD80]

I disagree about Derryck. ... He's coming along quite nicely but it's always important to remember with all players that progress is not linear, it's full of 1 step forward, 2 steps back and 2 steps forward, 1 step back. ... He'll ... have some games where us fans will be very happy he's on our side.

So he's like Darth Jar Jar? Deceptively effective?

[KandG]

I was at the game and the number of Duke fans was overwhelming and far more vocal than the BC fans, though to be fair, I'm not sure all the BC students are back yet this soon after the start of 2016. But the sad reality is also that there just isn't much local interest in BC basketball, and the team did little to nothing to reward those who did show up to root for BC. If it sounded like a library on the broadcast to home viewers, that's because it was like that in the actual stadium.

The first ten minutes of the game were extremely ugly as others have noted, with the Duke offense looking mechanical at best and scattered at worst. It was a little too easy for BC to focus on Grayson and wall off his penetration, given the shaky ball movement & decision making early on in the halfcourt offense. Derryck was especially guilty of questionable decisions where he would penetrate only to pass when he should shoot, or force a shot when there was nothing there.

The turnovers Duke forced (leading to transition points) and the fouls they drew from overaggressive BC defenders did seem to loosen the team up, and they more or less dominated thereafter, even with several defensive lapses (thank goodness BC couldn't make open 15 footers). I really liked Kennard's off-ball movement and how aggressive he remained even after he had several open shots fail to drop. Ingram is something special even if he still looks raw -- BC had no answer for his length and he seems to make a few plays a game where his arms enable something good (a rebound, a deflection, a block) even when he's out of position.

Matt looked like the most composed player on the court by far, on both ends of the court -- even when he got burned once backdoor, he slapped his head like he knew what he did wrong immediately and knew not to let it happen again, whereas some of the younger guys looked simply confused after getting beat. I loved the way Matt always seemed to be in the right place on the court, and how well he ran things on offense and worked to get Brandon open looks.

I still worry how well we'll do against better teams when we have so little going inside besides Grayson slashing and Brandon shooting over people on mismatches -- I recall Plumlee getting one post up and rolling to the basket once, likewise for Jeter. This team still has a lot of learning to do...but the positive is that their ceiling is significant as well. I enjoyed watching them a lot up close today, highlight plays, mistakes and all.

[Pghdukie]

I kringe everytime cameras show AJ.

[miramar]

Ingram played 40 minutes, Allen 39, Jones 38, and Plumlee 34. I know that they are well rested and that Coach K knows how to handle minutes, but this would be a great time for Jeter to step up.

No matter what, Ingram and Kennard played some great stretches of basketball, and if they and Thornton continue to develop then this could turn into a really tough team once Amile comes back.

[burnspbesq]

Just tuning in now to watch the replay (took the kid to LAX to head back to school, then went to Amoeba in Hollywood to spend the gift certificate).

When did G-Man start rocking the earring???

[dukelifer]

Just tuning in now to watch the replay (took the kid to LAX to head back to school, then went to Amoeba in Hollywood to spend the gift certificate).

When did G-Man start rocking the earring???

Many years ago

[FerryFor50]

Any game that doesn't end in a Duke injury is a good game to me.

Was a bit worried when Allen hit his head on the floor. Not sure why there was no foul called on the play - the defender bumped Allen and caused him to go off balance. Doesn't the defender need to leave room for a shooter to land?

[Saratoga2]

Ingram played all 40 minutes with 25 points and 9 rebounds. Some mistakes, but also some good defense.
Allen played 39 minutes with 17 points, 9 rebounds and quite a few assists with good spirited defense
Kennard played 27 minutes with 17 points and 5 rebounds. Good composure despite 3 point shooting issues. His defense was solid
Jones I lost track of his numbers which were good and I believe he played well up in the 30's. Very valuable player
Plumlee played 34 minutes had 1 point and 5 rebounds. He made a couple of good defensive plays
Jeter was in briefly and had one good block where he was aggressive and demonstrated his good mobility. I think 2 points on foul shots. Something to build on
Thornton had a weak game with sloppy turnovers and found himself out of the game. He needs to bounce back against Wake.

Wake is a much better team than BC so we will be challenged on Wednesday night. Plumlee needs to be more aggressive on defense. He can do well at times but must play aggressively. In major minutes just has to do better than 5 rebounds for Duke to succeed. The announcers were speculating that Amile might not get back until the ACC tourney. Say it isn't so.

[kAzE]

I agree. Derryck will have better games but there will be times when he will sit- depending on the matchups and Freshman mistakes. He is not Tyus but he is capable of being a big contributor.

Duke was the only road team to win in ACC play today. It is not easy to win impressively on the road- particularly with a bunch of very inexperienced players. I was happy to see Luke turn a poor shooting first half around. Ingram is clearly a special player. I was not sure he was ready to go pro- but the ceiling is unbelievably high for that guy. He will be leaving as his potential is too great- even if his body is not ready for the next level. Grayson is a bit crazy. He needs to be careful out there- cannot afford to lose him. The team is fun to watch but it starts getting hard in the ACC. Wake is playing well. Never an easy place to play and their fans will be loud and intimidating.

I don't think Derryck's lack of playing time had anything to do with poor play. It was more a function of Luke's excellent performance. We have a weird situation now where our 5 best players are all basically guards, although luckily, Brandon is still quite effective playing in the front court. However, this means we can really only play 3 of our 4 "true" guards at any one time if we want to avoid playing Brandon at the 5. Minutes for Derryck and Luke will likely fluctuate depending on whoever has the hot hand in that particular game. (Although I think Luke is slightly higher on the totem pole, and will likely get 20 minutes regardless) Against Long Beach, that was clearly Derryck. Tonight, it was Luke.

[DukeDevil]

Was a bit worried when Allen hit his head on the floor. Not sure why there was no foul called on the play - the defender bumped Allen and caused him to go off balance. Doesn't the defender need to leave room for a shooter to land?

I actually think, when I saw the replay, that he wasn't bumped from behind, but rather the dunked ball came down right in his face and he pulled back from it in surprise, and lost his balance as a result. That was the impression amongst the people in the room with me as well.

[Kedsy]

But I find myself agreeing (admitting?) with Saratoga's post above. Derryck just isn't coming along as fast as we probably need him to for this particular team.

I don't wish to offend, but this sounds like classic "one game trend" thinking. Tonight Derryck didn't pile up the stats, but here are his and Luke's basic offensive numbers for the last six games before tonight:

Derryck: 28.5 mpg; 12.2 ppg; 3.7 apg with 2.47 a/to ratio; 49.1% FG%; 53.3% 3-pt%; 81.3% FT%

Luke: 23.7 mpg; 12.7 ppg; 1.5 apg with 1.8 a/to ratio; 36.8% FG%; 31.3% 3-pt%; 92.3% FT%

Looking at those numbers, which player looks like he has been "coming along" faster? To my mind, they're both doing pretty well but neither is excelling consistently in every game or in every facet of the game. Which is not unusual for freshmen. But it would be a mistake to let one down game color your season-long impressions of improvement or readiness.

[Gooch]

Not sure if the announcers mentioned it but Danny Ainge was at courtside tonight. Looked really bored.

[uh_no]

Also deflating to ACC fans - BC hosting the defending NCAA National Championship Team and no interest in Boston. This simply doesn't happen in any other venue. Can we "trade" them in for UCONN or simply drop back to a 14 team bball conference and apply more pressure to ND on football side?

but hey, at least the ACC got the boston market, right?

actually, i think i would take boston market over BC 10 times out of 10...but only if it comes with gravy.

the northeast schools should really just dump football and join the big east. uconn, bc, syracuse...it never worked. nobody up there gives a crap about college football. a big part of it is not having the college sports scene being run by big state schools...except uconn...but connecticut is tiny. (and i guess rutgers...but jesus...how the hell did the big 10 ever vote to let them in?)

there's also a major concentration of pro sports between NY and boston...i mean, NY alone has 9 pro sports teams (11 if you count buffalo)...boston adds another 4...all in the distance from charlotte to durham...uconn is only really successful since there's nothing else to do in connecticut...and there're a lot of wealthy residents who want their state school to look good.

sigh. i look forward to the start of the ACC season when we play wake on wednesday.

edit: also the current "rumor" if you can even call it that is that the big 12 might invite uconn...i'm all for uconn having proper opponents again...but yeesh....and UWV thought they had to travel a lot....

[duke74]

Not sure if the announcers mentioned it but Danny Ainge was at courtside tonight. Looked really bored.

Think they did...and mentioned that he was sitting with Steve Pagliuca. If I remember correctly...

[Saratoga2]

I don't wish to offend, but this sounds like classic "one game trend" thinking. Tonight Derryck didn't pile up the stats, but here are his and Luke's basic offensive numbers for the last six games before tonight:

Derryck: 28.5 mpg; 12.2 ppg; 3.7 apg with 2.47 a/to ratio; 49.1% FG%; 53.3% 3-pt%; 81.3% FT%

Luke: 23.7 mpg; 12.7 ppg; 1.5 apg with 1.8 a/to ratio; 36.8% FG%; 31.3% 3-pt%; 92.3% FT%

Looking at those numbers, which player looks like he has been "coming along" faster? To my mind, they're both doing pretty well but neither is excelling consistently in every game or in every facet of the game. Which is not unusual for freshmen. But it would be a mistake to let one down game color your season-long impressions of improvement or readiness.

I also think Derryck is coming along nicely, although last night he was poor with his passing early on and then when inserted in the second half he repeated that. He did start, which is a reflection of how coach K thinks about he. As a freshman, he is bound to have learning experience games and this may have been one of those. Better to learn against BC then Wake. Derryck also piled up the fouls early and that may have had a lot to do with the amount of time he sat.

[CDu]

Just tuning in now to watch the replay (took the kid to LAX to head back to school, then went to Amoeba in Hollywood to spend the gift certificate).

When did G-Man start rocking the earring???

He has had the earring for several years.

[CDu]

Any game that doesn't end in a Duke injury is a good game to me.

Was a bit worried when Allen hit his head on the floor. Not sure why there was no foul called on the play - the defender bumped Allen and caused him to go off balance. Doesn't the defender need to leave room for a shooter to land?

There was actually very little contact, and the refs deemed it incidental. They even reviewed it. The contact had no implications on Allen's room to land - it happened near the rim, several feet away from where Allen landed.

The reality is that Allen's aggressive-bordering-on-reckless style puts him at risk where even the slightest contact (and the contact there was slight) could lead to a bad fall. It is sort of the mirror opposite of Matt Jones, who takes no such risks when going to the basket. Allen's attacking style is effective, but comes with risk. We are going to have to live with that risk.

[MCFinARL]

There was actually very little contact, and the refs deemed it incidental. They even reviewed it. The contact had no implications on Allen's room to land - it happened near the rim, several feet away from where Allen landed.

The reality is that Allen's aggressive-bordering-on-reckless style puts him at risk where even the slightest contact (and the contact there was slight) could lead to a bad fall. It is sort of the mirror opposite of Matt Jones, who takes no such risks when going to the basket. Allen's attacking style is effective, but comes with risk. We are going to have to live with that risk.

Yes. Coach K apparently commented on this in the post-game presser (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=210611746&DB_OEM_ID=4200):

"(He's) powerful, and then he's fearless. So he goes with a little bit of a reckless abandon," coach Mike Krzyzewski said after the 15th-ranked Blue Devils beat Boston College 81-64 in the Atlantic Coast Conference opener for both teams.

"He usually is either knocked to the floor or he falls to the floor because of those Herculean plays that he makes," Krzyzewski said.

Allen does the same thing in practice, but his coach doesn't dare tell him to take it easy.

"I think you have a greater chance of getting hurt by tempering your natural instincts," Krzyzewski said.

[Troublemaker]

That was some pretty ugly basketball, aside from about 4 minutes in the 2nd half. Defense consistently out of position.


I know we are early in the season but this team reminds me of the Jabari Parker team; potential offensive explosion every time they step on the court but unable to stop dribble penetration and the pick-and-roll.

You guys are being too harsh on the defense, imo. Duke held them to 38 points thru 30 minutes of play, which should translate to an offensive efficiency of sub-80 for BC. In the final 10 minutes, we took our foot off the gas, and BC was able to score 26 points in those final 10 minutes to raise their offensive efficiency to 89.

Two things:

We still beat our Pomeroy projection. We were supposed to give up 64 points to them in 68 possessions, but instead we gave up 64 points to them in 72 possessions.
We covered the Pomeroy spread of 12 points and the Vegas spread of 14 points
You could quibble about the defense in the final 10 minutes, but we're asking a lot from our players at that point. We had three players who played 38+ minutes including Brandon who went all 40. I don't need psycho-intensity from our guys for 40 minutes against BC. I'd prefer they nurse the lead and rest their legs a bit, and I think even Coach K understands that as well.



The starting lineup seemed to have communication issues with the TO bug impacting Derryck making passes that weren't there and Brandon initially a little sloppy as well. Even when he came back in during the second half Derryck didn't seem to be over the jitters and wound up sitting a lot. He also had multiple fouls but I think it was the carelessness with the ball that sat him down. That put a lot of pressure on Matt to be the primary ball handler. He had some problems but did an acceptable job overall.

The lineup that starts has a negative plus/minus on the season for a team that overall has a scoring margin of +18.6/gm. There doesn't appear to be great basketball chemistry among the starters. It's inexcusable to pass the ball out of bounds on a simple drive-and-short-kick to a fellow perimeter player standing five feet away. DT and BI were both guilty of that against BC, with each being the passer once and the receiver once.



I thought BC played a MTM that stayed in closer to the basket, which cut off a lot of our slashing opportunities. Our 3 pt shooting was cold so along with the TO's we were struggling early. We got steals and rebounds and got fast break opportunities which helped us pull away. Brandon showed a variety of scoring methods and BC couldn't defend him.

That's exactly right. BC packed it in and we had to be very careful on drives because their wing players were stepping in to try and draw the charge. Even though we were missing threes early, we were still drawing fouls on our drive-and-kick attempts, which eventually put Duke in the bonus. What got Duke's offense going in Q2 of the game was bonus free throws, fastbreaks off BC turnovers, and the wrinkle we threw in offensively where we cleared out the left side for Brandon to take his man 1-on-1. That clearout was so productive for us, as it resulted in a monster jam for Brandon, two short soft jumpers, and a layup at the rim, and maybe a couple of other things I can't recall right now.

Finally, Coach started using our "Baseline Screens" set more often, which freed up a curling Luke for easy (for him) two-pt attempts.

[Pghdukie]

It's a long,grueling league season. We can't keep asking core group to keep playing 38-40 minutes a game.

[oakvillebluedevil]

I don't wish to offend, but this sounds like classic "one game trend" thinking. Tonight Derryck didn't pile up the stats, but here are his and Luke's basic offensive numbers for the last six games before tonight:

Derryck: 28.5 mpg; 12.2 ppg; 3.7 apg with 2.47 a/to ratio; 49.1% FG%; 53.3% 3-pt%; 81.3% FT%

Luke: 23.7 mpg; 12.7 ppg; 1.5 apg with 1.8 a/to ratio; 36.8% FG%; 31.3% 3-pt%; 92.3% FT%

Looking at those numbers, which player looks like he has been "coming along" faster? To my mind, they're both doing pretty well but neither is excelling consistently in every game or in every facet of the game. Which is not unusual for freshmen. But it would be a mistake to let one down game color your season-long impressions of improvement or readiness.

Interesting point, Kedsy. The counting stats here surprised me, as I've been in the same boat as those who feel Derryck hasn't been coming along as quickly as Luke. As I think about it, though, that feeling doesn't come from stats as much as the 'eye test' that DT isn't helping the team as much as Luke overall.

I took a look at Neals384's excellent +/- lineup data and found some numbers that back up that view.

All numbers are +/- per 40 minutes, up through Long Beach St (though I'd imagine the BC game will tell the same story):




With Jefferson
Without Jefferson
Total


Kennard Only
27
53
39


Thornton Only
4
4
4



Both
26
12
17




This quick cut is pretty stark, and points to the fact that Luke is helping the team more when he's out there.

For reference, every point in the grid had at least 45 minutes played (it ended up as total of ~90 with Luke only, 170 with DT only, and ~190 with both).

[flyingdutchdevil]

I was at the game with the wife and a few friends:

1) As many have commented, it was a neutral game. No joke, but there were more Duke fans than BC fans. Can you imagine that? A home game that had more opposing fans than home fans? Kinda insane. But it's tough to blame BC. 1) students are still on holiday (and like Duke, BC is private with most students being out of state). 2) BC sucks at basketball. 3) Boston doesn't care about college basketball or football (I mean, this is the city with the best pro sports portfolio over the last decade)

2) Everyone was bored. BC fans, Duke fans, Danny Ainge, probably Steve Pagliuca. The game wasn't competitive, the environment sucked, and the arena isn't a good one for basketball.

3) Ingram is the most exciting player to watch live.

4) Every Duke fan was screaming for MP3 to get rid of the ball the second he touched it. It was very telling.

5) Luke Kennard is a good player. He is intelligent, has a great handle, and is really good in the mid-range and around the rim. But I refuse to believe he's an elite 3pt shooter until I see it.

[Channing]

I was at the game with the wife and a few friends:

1) As many have commented, it was a neutral game. No joke, but there were more Duke fans than BC fans. Can you imagine that? A home game that had more opposing fans than home fans? Kinda insane.

See, e.g., University of Alabama @ Duke (football)

[uh_no]

But I refuse to believe he's an elite 3pt shooter until I see it.

you realize matt jones shot 14.3% from 3 his freshman year, right? and then "just" 37% last year.

Luke shot well enough in high school games to be invited to the mcdonalds three point contest, and then shot well enough to win it. you don't just lose your three point shooting ability.

Further, FT percentage is one of the BEST indicators for 3 point shooting percentage....KP uses it as one of the biggest factors in selecting his shooters club (which he "guarantees" will shoot 40+% every year). Kennard is shooting a mediocre 91.7%...good for 10th in the country.

Further, Knnard doesn't seem tobe losing playing time after taking, and missing open threes. If he weren't hitting these in practice, he wouldn't have the green light, and he'd be riding the bench right now instead of playing a ton of minutes.

So we have three massive indicators that the kid is actually a really good three point shooter that for some reason or another has yet to show up in games. Maybe he'll stink at it for 4 years, who knows....but three point shots are a fickle thing. I have no doubts in the kid.

[sagegrouse]

See, e.g., University of Alabama @ Duke (football)

Wasn't it even worse? A whole bunch of Bama fans bought Duke SEASON TICKETS in order to get a seat at the game.

[devildeac]

Wasn't it even worse? A whole bunch of Bama fans bought Duke SEASON TICKETS in order to get a seat at the game.

Plus, they moved to various parking lots in the Derm area to live there for weeks (well, maybe a week:o*) before the game. Then they unloaded those tix at a buck or two apiece IIRC on various web sites.

*(well, maybe a few days:o:o)

[Henderson]

Wasn't it even worse? A whole bunch of Bama fans bought Duke SEASON TICKETS in order to get a seat at the game.


What else they gonna do? By November cousin Jolene is past breeding season.

[Furniture]

My 2 cents.
On the whole I think this was a very good result and the team played very well. I thought the defense was much better and although offense may have seemed to struggle at times you can't ignore the result.
In regards the DT vs. Luke discussion I think both are coming along with their ups and downs. This game wasn't great for DT but in the previous game he played great and he had quiet a few votes for MOM. The Long beach game Luke didn't play well. I think Matt did great and he always pitches in with some scoring. Funny thing is that in his post game comments K stated that we have three main scorers. Matt is not considered one of them but you can't ignore what he is doing almost every game.
Marshall is getting a lot of stick from many but K had only praise for him especially with his communication which I suppose is something most of us can't see.
Brandon had another sneaky game. Before you know it he has a bunch of points! What about that dunk!!!!
With my limed experience being a basketball fan it seems that we always have discussions like this at this time of year. Where will the team go? One week good the next week bad. One week O is good the next week D is bad.
I love it…..

[NSDukeFan]

With my limed experience being a basketball fan it seems that we always have discussions like this at this time of year. Where will the team go? One week good the next week bad. One week O is good the next week D is bad.
I love it…..

I just hope this year's team doesn't turn into a lemon. That would make me go bananas.

[Devilwin]

Played well overall, but Plumlee has to contribute more than he did..Much more when we go up against ACC schools better than BC is. And I firmly believe he is capable.

[jasoninchina]

What else they gonna do? By November cousin Jolene is past breeding season.

To me, it's rich that someone living in Sin City, a place with actual sin going on 24/7, would comment on the supposed, stereotypical sin of an entire state. It's no excuse if you are joking.

[brevity]

What else they gonna do? By November cousin Jolene is past breeding season.


To me, it's rich that someone living in Sin City, a place with actual sin going on 24/7, would comment on the supposed, stereotypical sin of an entire state. It's no excuse if you are joking.

Anti-Alabama sentiments are a bit tired and more than a bit offensive, but this was probably not the best way to make your point. Las Vegas is a fairly ordinary city when you live there, only with better public works, and more restaurants and stores open all hours for the local employees that form the backbone of all the tourist stuff everyone else sees.

Never been to China, and I am somewhat jealous.

[jasoninchina]

Anti-Alabama sentiments are a bit tired and more than a bit offensive, but this was probably not the best way to make your point. Las Vegas is a fairly ordinary city when you live there, only with better public works, and more restaurants and stores open all hours for the local employees that form the backbone of all the tourist stuff everyone else sees.

Never been to China, and I am somewhat jealous.

It is fine if you disagree with my approach. That doesn't bother me. It does bother me when someone makes an asinine comment about a place to which s/he has likely never been.

[NSDukeFan]

It is fine if you disagree with my approach. That doesn't bother me. It does bother me when someone makes an asinine comment about a place to which s/he has likely never been.

I thought he/she was trying to agree with you, just not your example and was trying to compliment you by saying they would like to go, but maybe I was reading things wrong?

[ChillinDuke]

Interesting point, Kedsy. The counting stats here surprised me, as I've been in the same boat as those who feel Derryck hasn't been coming along as quickly as Luke. As I think about it, though, that feeling doesn't come from stats as much as the 'eye test' that DT isn't helping the team as much as Luke overall.

I took a look at Neals384's excellent +/- lineup data and found some numbers that back up that view.

All numbers are +/- per 40 minutes, up through Long Beach St (though I'd imagine the BC game will tell the same story):




With Jefferson
Without Jefferson
Total


Kennard Only
27
53
39


Thornton Only
4
4
4



Both
26
12
17




This quick cut is pretty stark, and points to the fact that Luke is helping the team more when he's out there.

For reference, every point in the grid had at least 45 minutes played (it ended up as total of ~90 with Luke only, 170 with DT only, and ~190 with both).

This is a great post and really meshes with how I'm thinking about this. While DT certainly isn't playing poorly, especially for a freshman, and "learning games" are to be expected, I don't think he is delivering what this team needs to succeed without Amile. In particular, I'd like to see that APG number higher and really think it shouldn't be hard to do so given his ability to drive, his seeming difficulty finishing, and the multitude of shooters we have around him. Two or three drive and kicks a game don't seem to be asking for a lot.

And more importantly, we need DT to be the first denier in terms of guarding drives. Or at least funnel those drives somewhere where he has help.

I haven't seen those things from him with consistency. And so, unless he develops them pretty fast, I'm starting to kick around the idea of going with a shooting/scoring lineup as opposed to a lineup that is perhaps more well-rounded with DT. It's sort of a more high variance concept I'm thinking. It's ACC play now - so time to start thinking about "who we are".

- Chillin

[jasoninchina]

I thought he/she was trying to agree with you, just not your example and was trying to compliment you by saying they would like to go, but maybe I was reading things wrong?

OK. All of that is fine. I was not trying to denigrate anyone or even Las Vegas as a whole. My point was pointing out the irony in the person making a derogatory remark about Alabama when where s/he lives certainly has many more questionable activities going on than Alabama supposedly has occurring in it. Also, it angered me that s/he took a shot at the state of Alabama which is where my mother's family has lived for many years.

I don't have any interest any discussing this any further. Let's please discuss the good win over BC.

[JPtheGame]

It's a long,grueling league season. We can't keep asking core group to keep playing 38-40 minutes a game.

Then we ask the whole group to lose more often. Theres no one on this bench capable of contributing in a consistently meaningful way.

[ChillinDuke]

My 2 cents.
On the whole I think this was a very good result and the team played very well. I thought the defense was much better and although offense may have seemed to struggle at times you can't ignore the result.
In regards the DT vs. Luke discussion I think both are coming along with their ups and downs. This game wasn't great for DT but in the previous game he played great and he had quiet a few votes for MOM. The Long beach game Luke didn't play well. I think Matt did great and he always pitches in with some scoring. Funny thing is that in his post game comments K stated that we have three main scorers. Matt is not considered one of them but you can't ignore what he is doing almost every game.
Marshall is getting a lot of stick from many but K had only praise for him especially with his communication which I suppose is something most of us can't see.
Brandon had another sneaky game. Before you know it he has a bunch of points! What about that dunk!!!!
With my limed experience being a basketball fan it seems that we always have discussions like this at this time of year. Where will the team go? One week good the next week bad. One week O is good the next week D is bad.
I love it…..

You're main points are largely right. But I'll point out on the bolded...

Essentially all season, the O has been unequivocally good while the D has been almost unequivocally bad. Recency bias, "this guy's getting better", "where will we go?", whatever you want to point to in our subjective discussions, it's all fair and good. But one objective point that is inarguable, our KenPom AdjD has been declining almost every single game. We are currently at 50 with no obvious way of reversing course.

It's not a sky is falling situation. It's just getting to the point in the season where we may have to admit that the D is not good. And if, in fact, the D is not good, our chances for any meaningful results this season (Reg Season, ACCT, NCAAT) are quite low.

Understanding that people enjoy the season different ways, some of us (or just me) are beginning to look at the defense with some now-defensible skepticism. These next few games (maybe through the first UNC), I will be watching that side of the ball very intently.

- Chillin

[uh_no]

You're main points are largely right. But I'll point out on the bolded...

Essentially all season, the O has been unequivocally good while the D has been almost unequivocally bad. Recency bias, "this guy's getting better", "where will we go?", whatever you want to point to in our subjective discussions, it's all fair and good. But one objective point that is inarguable, our KenPom AdjD has been declining almost every single game. We are currently at 50 with no obvious way of reversing course.

It's not a sky is falling situation. It's just getting to the point in the season where we may have to admit that the D is not good. And if, in fact, the D is not good, our chances for any meaningful results this season (Reg Season, ACCT, NCAAT) are quite low.

Understanding that people enjoy the season different ways, some of us (or just me) are beginning to look at the defense with some now-defensible skepticism. These next few games (maybe through the first UNC), I will be watching that side of the ball very intently.

- Chillin

it's fair to point our our defense dropped quite far last year before rising again.

The diffence this year, I think, though, is that the D should be anchored by guys like matt, marshall, and grayson who were around last year....yet matt appears so be (perhaps selective perception) the worst at just letting people by...and marshall at times makes horrible hedging decisions.

Maybe ingram, derryck, and luke will make huge strides as last year's frosh did, but without bolstering the interior, i have my doubts.

In short, I think a turnaround like last season is unlikely without some extra contribution on the interior, either the effective return of amile, or some miracle of obi and chase.

[Kedsy]

We are currently at 50 with no obvious way of reversing course.

It's not a sky is falling situation. It's just getting to the point in the season where we may have to admit that the D is not good. And if, in fact, the D is not good, our chances for any meaningful results this season (Reg Season, ACCT, NCAAT) are quite low.

On March 15, 2015, Duke's defense was ranked #57 in KenPom. Was there an obvious way of reversing course then? Should we have admitted at that point in the season that our D was not good? And that therefore our chances for meaningful results in the NCAAT (the regular season and ACC Tournament were finished at that point) were quite low?

I don't mean to pick on you, but there's a whole lot of season left. And even when there isn't a whole lot of season left, "meaningful results" will still be attainable with a little luck if the light bulb goes on. And even if our D remains mediocre, plenty of teams attain meaningful results in the NCAAT with mediocre D.

Bottom line, I don't think we know anything, or have to admit anything, at this stage in the season. Or really any stage in the season, unless the season is already over.

[Wander]

On March 15, 2015, Duke's defense was ranked #57 in KenPom. Was there an obvious way of reversing course then? Should we have admitted at that point in the season that our D was not good? And that therefore our chances for meaningful results in the NCAAT (the regular season and ACC Tournament were finished at that point) were quite low?

I don't mean to pick on you, but there's a whole lot of season left. And even when there isn't a whole lot of season left, "meaningful results" will still be attainable with a little luck if the light bulb goes on. And even if our D remains mediocre, plenty of teams attain meaningful results in the NCAAT with mediocre D.

Bottom line, I don't think we know anything, or have to admit anything, at this stage in the season. Or really any stage in the season, unless the season is already over.

To say nothing of the fact that we're missing our best defensive player right now...

[ChillinDuke]

On March 15, 2015, Duke's defense was ranked #57 in KenPom. Was there an obvious way of reversing course then? Should we have admitted at that point in the season that our D was not good? And that therefore our chances for meaningful results in the NCAAT (the regular season and ACC Tournament were finished at that point) were quite low?

I don't mean to pick on you, but there's a whole lot of season left. And even when there isn't a whole lot of season left, "meaningful results" will still be attainable with a little luck if the light bulb goes on. And even if our D remains mediocre, plenty of teams attain meaningful results in the NCAAT with mediocre D.

Bottom line, I don't think we know anything, or have to admit anything, at this stage in the season. Or really any stage in the season, unless the season is already over.

I know you're not picking on me. It's an interesting discussion. Your point is fair. But I feel mine is fair too. It doesn't mean that either view is unreasonable.

As of January 3, 2015, Duke was 13-0 with wins (all numbers final KenPom) @ #3 Wisconsin, vs #15 Michigan State (neutral), vs #41 Stanford (neutral), vs #54 Temple (neutral), vs #72 Connecticut (neutral). All of those wins were by double figures.

As of January 3, 2015 Duke is 12-2 with notable wins (all numbers current KenPom) vs #24 Indiana (home), vs #45 VCU (neutral), vs #64 Georgetown (neutral). One of those wins was by double figures. Our only two other games against Top ~100 ish competition were wins vs #76 Yale (home) and vs #119 Siena (home). Losses have come vs #15 Kentucky (neutral) and vs #44 Utah (neutral). One of those losses was by double figures.

You'll forgive me for giving Duke a bit more defensive leeway on 1/3/2015 than I am currently affording them.

The BC team that we beat fairly handily yesterday was ranked #190 in the country. They are average, at best. I know the ACC is the ACC, but 190 is also 190. I'm as happy as everyone else that we got a win. But other than the fact that this was conference play, I'm not sure how meaningful a win would've been if it was over Marshall or Louisiana Monroe (#188 and #189).

Wake is #94 and on the road. And ACC. And just played Louisville (#5) to the final minute in the Yum! Center. This will be a real test. If we win this one, I'll certainly temper my current view. The team will have earned as much at that point.

- Chillin