Phase III 2015-2016 (Begin ACC play: BC through Syracuse)

[CDu]

With the win over Long Beach State, we have completed our pre-conference schedule (and Phase II). Now, as we prepare for the reset of the calendar, we begin Phase III: ACC play. This phase will include the games from BC to Syracuse. So away we go!

HealthSeems like every time I do one of these, health always finds its way to the forefront of discussion. This year is no different. With Jefferson's injury likely to keep him out through this entire phase, it is pretty important that we avoid any additional issues with health. Especially in the frontcourt, but pretty much throughout the lineup. When you only have 6 ACC-ready players, you can't lose any one of them. So let's hope we don't.

Chase Jeter's DevelopmentWhen Jefferson went down, a lot of the talk was about how this would be an opportunity for the backup bigs to step up and get valuable experience. Well, so far, that's not been how it has played out. Jeter has looked... shaky at best. He just hasn't figured out how to play at the college level yet. And so far, his minutes have been limited accordingly. Right now, he's just filling in minutes while Plumlee sits. Will the light come on for Jeter in ACC play? My suspicion is that, if the light does come on, it won't be during Phase III. But it is something to keep an eye on, as until it does we are going to have to claw for everything we get.

Ingram as a full-time PF - can it work in conference play?As a result of Jeter and ObiVrank not being up to snuff, Brandon Ingram has gone from being a combo forward to being a full-time PF. Not only that, but he is also essentially our only PF, coming out only briefly unless in foul trouble or in a blowout game. Can he continue to excel in that role? So far, so good. But he hasn't exactly faced murderer's row as a PF so far. Granted, our start to the ACC schedule may not fully test this issue (more on that later). But some of our matchups will put his PF-readiness to the test. It will be interesting to see how he handles it. I'm not concerned about him on the offensive end, but will he hold up on the defensive end?

The freshmen guards.Kennard and Thornton have each had some really nice performances this month. Kennard has shown the savvy and poise to get good looks all season, but has simply had trouble seeing the ball go through the hoop. Thornton has been learning on the job, but appears to be starting to get dialed in. The talent is obviously there for both. The key from here is consistency. We need them to be productive, because without Jefferson and with Jeter ineffective we pretty much HAVE to play them major minutes. I expect both to play well in the second half of the season, but their progress will be important for our success.

Will the team defense improve?One of the many areas in which Jefferson's absence hurts is on the defensive end. For one thing, he's our most experienced player. He is also our most vocal player. And he's our best interior defender. His loss hurts both as individual defense and team defense. Furthermore, we now don't have a true PF playing at all, and we essentially go small (or very small). How will the defense hold up in ACC play? Can we keep teams off the boards sufficiently? Can our guards force turnovers? So far, we've looked shaky defensively, and we haven't exactly faced a bunch of juggernaut offenses (Indiana excluded). Is that what we're resigned to being until Jefferson returns, or can this group find its groove on that end?

Or can we just outscore everyone?As shaky as our defense has looked, the offense has generally been very good. With the exception of the atrocities against Utah and Kentucky, we've pretty much scored at will. During this phase, I'd expect that to continue. Can we simply outscore our first six opponents? We're the #2 offense in the country in terms of efficiency (and not far from #1), so maybe we can just gun our way through the tough games. With the spread-out offense we run, and with talents like Ingram and Allen on the perimeter, it's possible. Here's where Kennard and Thornton come back to mention. Kennard's shooting ability and craftiness off the dribble will be a huge boost if he can start to have those jumpers fall, and Thornton's quickness and athleticism can get us some easy buckets off the dribble when teams focus on Ingram and Allen too much.

True road games - are we ready?This is a very young and inexperienced team. Several of our key players have never played a road game in college. Well, we'll get that monkey off our back and then some in Phase III, as 3 of our first 4 are on the road. Thankfully, it's not a disastrous lineup of road games (more on that in a bit). But can we avoid getting clipped in our early road tests? Are we ready for the atmosphere? We'll just never know until our team faces that test.

Know thy enemy.Now that we've gone over the key points for our team in this phase, I'd like to give a brief rundown of who we will be facing. They are, in order, @BC, @Wake, vs VT, @Clemson, vs Notre Dame, vs Syracuse.

BC: This team is... not good. Not good at all. They are barely over .500, and they have losses to Santa Clara, UMass-Lowell, UC-Irvine, and Penn State. They have a fifth-year senior lead guard (Eli Carter), and that's about it. They do have to ginormous bigs that rotate for one another, but other than that they are small and not good. This is a game that shouldn't put Ingram to the test as a PF. This should be an easy win - it should be our easiest ACC game of the season.

Wake: the Deacs are a team on the rise. Devin Thomas has become a handful inside, and is a real All-ACC possibility. Mitoglou is kind of like Ryan Kelly - a stretch four. They have a very talented freshman guard in Crawford, who can shoot the 3 and drive and dish. He seems to be a very complete player. Codi Miller-McIntyre has been All-ACC caliber, but is working his way back into form. After that, though, it's mostly "meh." They'll be a tough test in the Joel, and this could very conceivably be our first ACC loss of the season.

VT: This is a plucky squad coached by a plucky coach in Buzz Williams. They have a trio of small ballhandlers led by former Maryland lead guard Seth Allen, a talented bull of a PF in LeDay, a sharpshooter in Bibbs, an athletic SF in Clarke, and three low-skilled behemoths rotating inside. The team is a bit short on skill, but not short on physicality or effort (as is standard for Williams-coached teams). LeDay poses the first real test of Ingram's capability defensively at PF, as he's a 6'7", 235lb bruiser. But this should be a Duke win, and fairly comfortably so.

Notre Dame: This is simply not the same Notre Dame team as last year. No Jerian Grant. No Pat Connaughton. Their two best players gone from a team that nearly beat Kentucky and beat us twice last year, and they really haven't replaced those guys. Beachem, Vasturia, and Jackson have increased their workload, but they were all in place last year too. They lost to Monmouth and Alabama and haven't looked at all convincing this year. They may wind up a middle-of-the pack ACC team, but I can't see much more than that. Jackson is a jitterbug of a PG who can create off the dribble or can shoot the 3. Beachem and Vasturia are both fantastic spot shooters but not much more. Auguste is, like Devin Thomas, a handful inside, and a probable All-ACC guy. Colson is the x-factor. He's a low-skilled but high-energy "big". At just 6'5", 226, he plays much bigger (thanks in part to his long arms and strength). It will be interesting to see how he defends Ingram. The problem for Notre Dame is that they quite literally bring nothing else to the table. Ryan and Farrell are their primary reserves, and neither is noteworthy (Ryan can shoot solidly from 3 but does nothing else; Farrell is just minutes filler at guard). If Notre Dame sniffs even the slightest bit of foul trouble, they are toast. They are essentially a poor man's version of the current Duke team. Unless we struggle shooting or they shoot the lights out, this should be a Duke win.

Syracuse: This team has had a weird start to their season. They looked really impressive in winning a pre-conference tourney beating UConn and Texas A&M. But then they lost at home to a bad Wisconsin team, and followed it up with losses to Georgetown, St John's, and more recently Pittsburgh. You'll of course recognize our old friend Gbinije, who has developed into a legitimate college star in his fifth year. He does a bit of everything for the Orange, and is far and away their best player. They also have designated gunner Cooney, a guy who shoots better from 3 than from 2. They also have a stretch-4 in Lydon coming off the bench, shooting over 45% from 3. And Tyler Roberson continues the long tradition of having a skinny, long-armed forward in the 6'8"-6'9" range. DaJuan Coleman has returned and is solid in the middle, but only gives them 15-20 mpg. The problem for the Cuse is that they are even thinner in rotation than we are. They play just five guys even 16 mpg, and just six guys top 9 mpg. Gbinije and Cooney play basically the entire game, and if either is in foul trouble their perimeter options stink. They have just two guys who can handle the ball at all, and one is more a wing (Gbinije) than a PG while the other is a not-at-all-good PG who plays sparingly (Joseph). My only concern in this game is the zone. If we handle the zone, though, we should beat Syracuse. This is yet another game in which Ingram's lack of bulk is not an issue, because the Cuse don't have any physicality at PF.

[Wander]

Amile or not, this is the easiest ACC stretch we'll have all season - the first 4 games are probably the 4 worst ACC teams. We still don't have a great win (or bad loss), and I think we really need to finish no worse than 5-1 in this phase if we're going to get a high (say 1, 2, or 3) NCAA seed.

[Olympic Fan]

You left out Clemson (Jan. 13) -- On the road, kind of ... Clemson is playing in Greenville this season while Littlejohn is remodeled.

The Tigers rotate two huge bigs in the middle, who rebound and block shots ... but their best player is power forward Jason Blossomgame. He will be a real test for Brandon at PF -- he's not that tall (6-7), but he's extremely physical. Matt might draw the assignment ... that would leave Brandon on Donte Graham, who is more his size -- 6-8, 210 -- and not nearly as physical.

I agree that this is the weakest stretch of the season. Duke could easily get through it 6-0.

But I worry about the game at Wake -- a real tough matchup, especially at power forward. Without Amile, we have nobody who can match up with Thomas.

Notre Dame and Syracuse are mid-level ACC teams and could be threats, but I like Duke's chances in Cameron.

[sagegrouse]

Great summary, CDu! I would add only two things, neither truly necessary:


What is Plan B, and does it have a chance of working? There will be times, even in Phase III, where both Marshall and Chase are in foul trouble. How well will Sean and Vrank be able to fill in?
As a fillip to "Or can we just outscore everyone?" -- I would offer, "Is this the most offensively proficient set of guards and wings in Duke history?" IMHO (where the H has been long missing) it could be, with Ingram, Allen, Jones, Kennard and Thornton all scorers. We don't expect all five to be scoring 15+ points in each game -- or any game -- but we should expect at least three to be contributing at the level -- and not the same three every game.

[OldPhiKap]

I like the optimism of 6-0 but we're gonna have to play a whole lot better to do that.

I would not be surprised at 5-1, would not really even be surprised with 4-2. Cupcakes are over. This is a huge step-up in competition and venue, with a lot of freshmen who have never experienced ACC conference play. And we get everyone's best shot.

I think we have a chance to be a really good squad come March. But we're likely to take some lumps early.

Love to be wrong.

[Troublemaker]

Excellent Phase post, CDu. I think you hit on all the important questions for Phase III.


I like the optimism of 6-0 but we're gonna have to play a whole lot better to do that.

I would not be surprised at 5-1, would not really even be surprised with 4-2. Cupcakes are over. This is a huge step-up in competition and venue, with a lot of freshmen who have never experienced ACC conference play. And we get everyone's best shot.

I think we have a chance to be a really good squad come March. But we're likely to take some lumps early.

Love to be wrong.

Yeah, @WFU and @Clemson are two games where beauty points don't even matter. I'll consider it an excellent outcome if we beat them by 1 point on those days. Conference road games are no joke.

[kAzE]

Will the team defense improve?One of the many areas in which Jefferson's absence hurts is on the defensive end. For one thing, he's our most experienced player. He is also our most vocal player. And he's our best interior defender. His loss hurts both as individual defense and team defense. Furthermore, we now don't have a true PF playing at all, and we essentially go small (or very small). How will the defense hold up in ACC play? Can we keep teams off the boards sufficiently? Can our guards force turnovers? So far, we've looked shaky defensively, and we haven't exactly faced a bunch of juggernaut offenses (Indiana excluded). Is that what we're resigned to being until Jefferson returns, or can this group find its groove on that end?

Or can we just outscore everyone?As shaky as our defense has looked, the offense has generally been very good. With the exception of the atrocities against Utah and Kentucky, we've pretty much scored at will. During this phase, I'd expect that to continue. Can we simply outscore our first six opponents? We're the #2 offense in the country in terms of efficiency (and not far from #1), so maybe we can just gun our way through the tough games. With the spread-out offense we run, and with talents like Ingram and Allen on the perimeter, it's possible. Here's where Kennard and Thornton come back to mention. Kennard's shooting ability and craftiness off the dribble will be a huge boost if he can start to have those jumpers fall, and Thornton's quickness and athleticism can get us some easy buckets off the dribble when teams focus on Ingram and Allen too much.


I think we've done a good job on the perimeter for the most part defensively. We allow some open threes especially in the corners sometimes due to overplaying passing lanes, but forcing turnovers on the perimeter and on entry passes has been our strength. Post defense, transition defense, and help defense on dribble drives have not been as good. Amile's return would help with 2 of those, but lazy transition defense has been a constant. Our guards need to hustle back to prevent easy layups, that's just inexcusable. Other than that, I'm not sure how much we really can improve. We just don't have the size to bang down low. If Chase can learn how to protect the paint without fouling, I suppose that would be our ticket to improving defensively. I wouldn't expect Marshall to improve significantly at this point. He is what he is. Brandon can only front larger players in the post and hope to get a deflection. He's just not going to be able to hold his ground against much stronger power forwards without help.

Hopefully Amile will be back by the time we enter the most difficult stretch of the conference schedule, but if not, our 2 games against the Heels are going to be very high scoring, with both teams being elite offenses and mediocre (relative to other ranked teams) defensively.

[sagegrouse]

Excellent Phase post, CDu. I think you hit on all the important questions for Phase III.



Yeah, @WFU and @Clemson are two games where beauty points don't even matter. I'll consider it an excellent outcome if we beat them by 1 point on those days. Conference road games are no joke.

Fortunately, it is also a road game for Clemson; it's being played in Greenville while Littlejohn is under renovation. We'll see what the game-day atmosphere turns out to be at the "Bon Secours Wellness Arena" -- oh, my!

[CDu]

You left out Clemson (Jan. 13) -- On the road, kind of ... Clemson is playing in Greenville this season while Littlejohn is remodeled.

The Tigers rotate two huge bigs in the middle, who rebound and block shots ... but their best player is power forward Jason Blossomgame. He will be a real test for Brandon at PF -- he's not that tall (6-7), but he's extremely physical. Matt might draw the assignment ... that would leave Brandon on Donte Graham, who is more his size -- 6-8, 210 -- and not nearly as physical.

I agree that this is the weakest stretch of the season. Duke could easily get through it 6-0.

But I worry about the game at Wake -- a real tough matchup, especially at power forward. Without Amile, we have nobody who can match up with Thomas.

Notre Dame and Syracuse are mid-level ACC teams and could be threats, but I like Duke's chances in Cameron.

Doh! Totally forgot the breakdown of Clemson. I don't think of Blossomgame as overly physical, but rather just really athletic. He is strong for his frame (220), but he seems more quick/explosive than powerful. As opposed to, say, Bonsi Colson, who is a true bruiser.

But Blossomgame is probably the third-most physical PF player on the Phase 3 schedule, and he is certainly more physical than Grantham and Ingram (who isn't?). I would expect Ingram to guard Blossomgame, and I am not overly worried there.

I agree about Wake. That is the game that concerns me. They have size, experience, some star power, a true home court advantage. We should win, but that game could be a loss. The rest are all games we should win comfortably. It really is a nice way to start conference play with such a young team.

[DukieInBrasil]

If Luke can keep his play in the same range as what he's done lately, then that will be a huge boost to our chances during this Phase. Having a guy who can go off for 25 as your 6th man is a big deal. Having that same game guy be good for at least 10 points in any given game is important. Tied to Luke's 6th man role is Derryck's role as the PG, which he has played pretty well lately. I would expect for DT to continue starting as the PG and for Luke to come in as the 6th man, and essentially the entirety of our depth for the 1-4 positions. If Luke can give us 25 solid mpg then that allows everyone else to play ~35mpg, which is a lot but not insane. The exception to this is MP3 who will need around 10mpg from Jeter, and Jeter may not be ready for anything more than just a "minutes filler" role for the foreseeable future. I haven't seen much from Chase to indicate that he's ready for the ACC.
My projected minutes would leave us with about 5mpg with Brandon as the 5, which we may be able to get away with during this Phase of weak(er) competition than is coming down the road.
I'm looking forward to seeing how this squad responds to the need for more team cohesiveness on the defensive side of the ball. The offense has been stellar, and with something resembling an above average defense, this team could be right there at the top of the ACC, even before Amile comes back!

[cato]

Five Blue Devils have attempted three point shots this year. Here are their percentages:

Jones: 45.6%
Allen: 40.0%
Thornton: 43.3%
Ingram: 36.2%
Kennard: 30.0%

It would be really nice to see Kennard bump up that percentage a bit during this phase, but I not hopeful for a big jump at this point.

[COYS]

Five Blue Devils have attempted three point shots this year. Here are their percentages:

Jones: 45.6%
Allen: 40.0%
Thornton: 43.3%
Ingram: 36.2%
Kennard: 30.0%

It would be really nice to see Kennard bump up that percentage a bit during this phase, but I not hopeful for a big jump at this point.

Brandon started the season horribly from thre point range. His 36.2% for the whole season is less meaningful of his initial poor percentage was just part of adjusting to college ball. The same is true for Luke. He was at 17% four or five games ago (I can't remember). That will drag his percentage down for the rest of the season, no matter what. The question is, is the recent improvement more indicative of the shooter he will be for the rest of the season (35-40% with the potential to go off for a ton of threes) or will he continue to struggle with accuracy? Free throw percentage is usually a better indication of long term shooting accuracy than three point shooting. Something is a little off with him in games by the eye test, especially yesterday when he missed badly on his first two attempts and clearly had a hitch in his shot. Still, his excellent free throw shooting and reputation from high school make me confident that he can fight through whatever it is that's hindering his accuracy. I'm going to get that he will be a solid threat from three from here on, even if he is a bit streaky.

[cato]

Brandon started the season horribly from thre point range. His 36.2% for the whole season is less meaningful of his initial poor percentage was just part of adjusting to college ball. The same is true for Luke. He was at 17% four or five games ago (I can't remember). That will drag his percentage down for the rest of the season, no matter what. The question is, is the recent improvement more indicative of the shooter he will be for the rest of the season (35-40% with the potential to go off for a ton of threes) or will he continue to struggle with accuracy? Free throw percentage is usually a better indication of long term shooting accuracy than three point shooting. Something is a little off with him in games by the eye test, especially yesterday when he missed badly on his first two attempts and clearly had a hitch in his shot. Still, his excellent free throw shooting and reputation from high school make me confident that he can fight through whatever it is that's hindering his accuracy. I'm going to get that he will be a solid threat from three from here on, even if he is a bit streaky.

Agreed re free throw shooting. That gives me long term hope. But with this much of the season in the books, I no longer expect Kennard to make big jump this season. Hopefully he will go off several more times, but I think the struggles with consistent accuracy will continue.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

[kAzE]

Agreed re free throw shooting. That gives me long term hope. But with this much of the season in the books, I no longer expect Kennard to make big jump this season. Hopefully he will go off several more times, but I think the struggles with consistent accuracy will continue.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

Really? I'm not worried about him in the slightest. I think the major adjustment that he's still working through is coming off the bench and being at best the 2nd or 3rd option offensively. A guy like him, who has been the #1 guy on every team he's played with his entire career and then suddenly becomes a bench player, is going to struggle with being expected to produce efficiently in smaller volume. He'll be fine, shooters have off games. In almost every other facet of the game (especially ball handling, getting to the free throw line consistently, rebounding, and defense), he's come in as a freshman and performed remarkably well relative to most people's expectations. Of the 4 freshman, his role and minutes have been the most consistent, which tells us that Coach K isn't worried, either. The only thing NOT consistent about his game right now is his outside shooting. He's a future 20+ PPG scorer and All-American candidate if we manage to keep him for 3 or 4 years.

[Kedsy]

The same is true for Luke. He was at 17% four or five games ago (I can't remember). That will drag his percentage down for the rest of the season, no matter what. The question is, is the recent improvement more indicative of the shooter he will be for the rest of the season (35-40% with the potential to go off for a ton of threes) or will he continue to struggle with accuracy?

FWIW, in six December games, Luke shot 10 for 32 (31.3%) from three-land. Granted, that's better than the 28.6% he shot in 7 November games (8 for 28). But not that much better.

[cato]

Really? I'm not worried about him in the slightest. I think the major adjustment that he's still working through is coming off the bench and being at best the 2nd or 3rd option offensively. A guy like him, who has been the #1 guy on every team he's played with his entire career and then suddenly becomes a bench player, is going to struggle with being expected to produce efficiently in smaller volume. He'll be fine, shooters have off games. In almost every other facet of the game (especially ball handling, getting to the free throw line consistently, rebounding, and defense), he's come in as a freshman and performed remarkably well relative to most people's expectations. Of the 4 freshman, his role and minutes have been the most consistent, which tells us that Coach K isn't worried, either. The only thing NOT consistent about his game right now is his outside shooting. He's a future 20+ PPG scorer and All-American candidate if we manage to keep him for 3 or 4 years.

I'm not worried about him in the slightest. He is an excellent addition on the perimeter. My point is narrow: during the out-of-conference slate, I had hoped that Luke would round into being a more consistent shooter from beyond the arc. At this point, I think Luke is essentially the 3P shooter that he is going to be for this first year.

[Indoor66]

IMO Luke is settling down and has most of it figured out. He will continue to improve and contribute.

[CDu]

I think we are still way too few attempts into his career to know what kind of shooter Kennard is.

[uh_no]

I think we are still way too few attempts into his career to know what kind of shooter Kennard is.

we have a high school career worth of numbers to know what kind of shooter kennard is. He had a reasonable slump. he's shown he can shoot in games.

[cato]

we have a high school career worth of numbers to know what kind of shooter kennard is. He had a reasonable slump. he's shown he can shoot in games.

This was my expectation. At some point, actual college performance begins to outweigh prior expectations.

I am trying to recall players who significantly improved their shooting during a season, this far in. Singler his senior year?

Most jumps seem to happen year to year, instead of over the course of a year. Not sure how to check any stats on this, though.

[Troublemaker]

Coach K did say in the postgame that (paraphrasing) the staff was trying to develop Luke into being a player like Grayson and Brandon who can hurt defenses three ways -- 2s, 3s, and FTs. So the staff clearly has a very high opinion of Luke's potential. Hopefully we'll start to see him realize it more consistently in this Phase.

[CDu]

we have a high school career worth of numbers to know what kind of shooter kennard is. He had a reasonable slump. he's shown he can shoot in games.

I agree - probably should have worded it "we don't have enough attempts to confidently say that he is going to be a ~30% shooter this year.

[kAzE]

I agree - probably should have worded it "we don't have enough attempts to confidently say that he is going to be a ~30% shooter this year.

The simple fact that he has the blessing of the coaching staff to shoot some of the shots that he takes is reassurance enough for me. I would probably say he takes the most "green light" shots of anyone on the team. I'm talking about those early shot clock looks when a defender is nearby, and Luke is maybe 27-28 feet from the hoop and just launches before the defender realizes it's going up. You don't get to shoot those unless you're making a lot of them in practice.

[Olympic Fan]

This was my expectation. At some point, actual college performance begins to outweigh prior expectations.

I am trying to recall players who significantly improved their shooting during a season, this far in. Singler his senior year?

Most jumps seem to happen year to year, instead of over the course of a year. Not sure how to check any stats on this, though.

The best example is Shane Battier.

He arrived with the reputation as a deadly shooter after winning the 3-point contest at the McDonald's Game.

Then he hit 4-of-25 3-pointers in his freshman season (16.7 percent).

He was off to another terrible start in his sophomore season -- 11-of-41 through the first 21 games. He hit 1-of-1 in Game 22 (vs. NC State), then exploded to hit 4-of-4 against Maryland at home. Over the last 18 games that season, he hit 28-of-57 3's (49.1 percent). He was over 40 percent in his last two seasons, converting 203 3-pointers in those two years.

I just hope it doesn't take Luke as long as Shane to find his touch, but he's proof that it CAN happen at midseason.

PS -- There is another example but I can't cite numbers. But when Jim Fitzsimmons was a freshman in 1969-70 (playing freshman ball), he started out ice cold. It was a great freshman team -- I think the only undefeated freshman team in Duke history with Gary Melchionnu, Alan Shaw, Richie O'Connor and Jeff Dawson. We figured, well, one bust out of five prospects isn't too bad. Then Fitzsimmons started hitting and in his last 4-5 games, he didn't miss. I THINK he was 29-of-31 from the floor -- and they were almost all jump shots. It was incredible. Fitz became the first member of that class to bail, transferring home to Harvard (he was a Boston kid). He ended up leading the Ivy in scoring. Dawson was next (becoming a star at Illinois). O'Connor played two-plus years before leaving for Fairfield (where he led the Stags to the NIT -- a big deal in those days). All were recruiting by Bucky Waters, who was great at getting them ... lousy at keeping them.

But Fitzsimmons was another great shooter, who started slow and at midseason found his touch.

[sagegrouse]

PS -- There is another example but I can't cite numbers. But when Jim Fitzsimmons was a freshman in 1969-70 (playing freshman ball), he started out ice cold. It was a great freshman team -- I think the only undefeated freshman team in Duke history with Gary Melchionnu, Alan Shaw, Richie O'Connor and Jeff Dawson. We figured, well, one bust out of five prospects isn't too bad.

I think the Jeff Mullins, Jay Buckley, Buzzy Harrison team was undefeated, although I don't have access to the records. The frosh used to play the other Big Four teams three times and then fill in with whoever else was available, including military teams.

[dukelifer]

I agree - probably should have worded it "we don't have enough attempts to confidently say that he is going to be a ~30% shooter this year.

He had two 0-fers that hasn't helped that percentage. He is efficient from the line and perhaps should bring his game inside a bit more. He is a capable driver and with the new rules should be able to get to the rim and get fouled or make the shot. I would rather have him drive than I would Matt - who may be a better spot up shooter.

[Bob Green]

Will the team defense improve?One of the many areas in which Jefferson's absence hurts is on the defensive end. For one thing, he's our most experienced player. He is also our most vocal player. And he's our best interior defender. His loss hurts both as individual defense and team defense. Furthermore, we now don't have a true PF playing at all, and we essentially go small (or very small). How will the defense hold up in ACC play? Can we keep teams off the boards sufficiently? Can our guards force turnovers? So far, we've looked shaky defensively, and we haven't exactly faced a bunch of juggernaut offenses (Indiana excluded). Is that what we're resigned to being until Jefferson returns, or can this group find its groove on that end?



After health, which is always #1, the most important factor in Phase III will be improvement on defense. Specifically, improving the interior defense. We will face bigger, more talented players with the commencement of conference games so the team needs to figure out the rotations and help assignments to cut back on giving up easy baskets. Moreover, we cannot allow the opponent to pound the offensive boards to earn second chance points. Defensive rebounding will need to be a point of emphasis. LBSU outrebounded us 42-31 including grabbing 16 offensive boards.

[DukieInBrasil]

He had two 0-fers that hasn't helped that percentage. He is efficient from the line and perhaps should bring his game inside a bit more. He is a capable driver and with the new rules should be able to get to the rim and get fouled or make the shot. I would rather have him drive than I would Matt - who may be a better spot up shooter.

I agree with this wholeheartedly! and the stats back it up. Matt is shooting better from 3 (45.6%) than he is from 2 (42.2%, whereas not only does Luke shoot better from 2 (51.1%) than 3 (30%), his FT% is much, much better than Matt's (93 vs 77%).
Although Matt hasn't done so nearly as much this year, i remember last year that in several consecutive games Matt had fast break layups get blocked from behind b/c he can't dunk. In addition to not dunking, he doesn't have the quickness or hops to be an ideal slashing 2pt shooter since he can't get the separation or elevation necessary for quality 2pt looks with consistency. Luke may not be super quick, but he can dunk, and he does seem to have the knack for creating separation and getting decent 2pt shots.
Matt is our leading 3pt shooter, so we should be focusing on ways to get him those shots. Luke is our leading FT shooter, and a high quality 2pt shooter, so we should be focusing on ways to get him those shots. By playing to their strengths, they may also end up improving areas where they are weaker.

[CDu]

I agree with this wholeheartedly! and the stats back it up. Matt is shooting better from 3 (45.6%) than he is from 2 (42.2%, whereas not only does Luke shoot better from 2 (51.1%) than 3 (30%), his FT% is much, much better than Matt's (93 vs 77%).
Although Matt hasn't done so nearly as much this year, i remember last year that in several consecutive games Matt had fast break layups get blocked from behind b/c he can't dunk. In addition to not dunking, he doesn't have the quickness or hops to be an ideal slashing 2pt shooter since he can't get the separation or elevation necessary for quality 2pt looks with consistency. Luke may not be super quick, but he can dunk, and he does seem to have the knack for creating separation and getting decent 2pt shots.
Matt is our leading 3pt shooter, so we should be focusing on ways to get him those shots. Luke is our leading FT shooter, and a high quality 2pt shooter, so we should be focusing on ways to get him those shots. By playing to their strengths, they may also end up improving areas where they are weaker.

Just to be clear, Jones can in fact dunk. Why he chooses not to do so in games, I am not sure. Maybe he doesn't want to risk injury by elevating to dunk. But he has done so (with ease) in warmups numerous times.

[Troublemaker]

I agree with this wholeheartedly! and the stats back it up. Matt is shooting better from 3 (45.6%) than he is from 2 (42.2%, whereas not only does Luke shoot better from 2 (51.1%) than 3 (30%), his FT% is much, much better than Matt's (93 vs 77%).
Although Matt hasn't done so nearly as much this year, i remember last year that in several consecutive games Matt had fast break layups get blocked from behind b/c he can't dunk. In addition to not dunking, he doesn't have the quickness or hops to be an ideal slashing 2pt shooter since he can't get the separation or elevation necessary for quality 2pt looks with consistency. Luke may not be super quick, but he can dunk, and he does seem to have the knack for creating separation and getting decent 2pt shots.
Matt is our leading 3pt shooter, so we should be focusing on ways to get him those shots. Luke is our leading FT shooter, and a high quality 2pt shooter, so we should be focusing on ways to get him those shots. By playing to their strengths, they may also end up improving areas where they are weaker.

Matt should drive to pass or to use his floater and resist going for a layup unless the path is completely clear. I wouldn't want him to be just a stand-still shooter (not that you're suggesting that) because Matt does have the passing skills to find dropoffs and kickouts, and he doesn't turn the ball over. The 4-out offense works best when all 4 can drive, pass, and shoot.

More shooting percentage stats here: http://hoop-math.com/Duke2016.php

Matt has, by far, the worst FG% at the rim at 34.1%, so it makes sense that he becomes more choosy about challenging inside. However, interestingly, Matt is the best of the perimeter players on 2-pt jumpers, shooting 53%. (I suspect that they count floaters and maybe even hook shots as "2-pt jumpers" because somehow Amile has attempted nine 2-pt jumpers this season, which doesn't seem right.) The worst at 2-pt jumpers so far? Grayson, who is only shooting 36.7% on them. Either Grayson gets better at hitting his midranger and long 2s, or he should stick to layup attempts and threes.

[Saratoga2]

The central post covers the key areas very well. I do think that our offense, while efficient, can be slowed down by taking away our slashing baskets (see Kentucky game), but the opponent will need big aggressive front court players who can do it without incurring a large number of fouls. Without our layups, we become a three point shooting team and the offensive efficiency becomes average.

Defense is the weak spot without Amile and somewhat weak with him. Clearly MP3 does not give us a top notch rim protector or rebounder inside and Brandon is a wonderful talent but still very thin to contest against the PFs we will see. I just hope we don't get Brandon hurt using in this way, but see no alternative. I also think that using Brandon inside so much will tire him and hurt his offensive effectiveness.

Perhaps against some of the Phase III teams with big but athletically or skill limited PF's we can use Obi and or Vrank and not incur too much of a penalty. Chase is bigger than Brandon but still not that muscular kid that can hold his own inside and he also lacks court awareness so perhaps a better solution in those games is to let our currently bench bound bigs bang with theirs and let our offensive players outscore theirs.

If Chase starts to get it, and in addition can get stronger, then we become a much better team. I cross my fingers and hope that it can happen by March.

[azzefkram]

Clearly MP3 does not give us a top notch rim protector or rebounder inside.

This is just plain false. Marshall's BLK% is 7.7 which is top 100 (68) in DI and more than double Amile's. We would have to go back nearly a decade to Shelden to find a regular with a higher BLK% than MP3. His DR% is 20.4 which is 201 in DI and more than Amile's and more than Jah's last year. He is also third on the team in Stl%. Marshall has his warts like all our players but they aren't on the defensive side of the equation. Our issues on defense remain on the perimeter and the team stats back that up.

[Saratoga2]

This is just plain false. Marshall's BLK% is 7.7 which is top 100 (68) in DI and more than double Amile's. We would have to go back nearly a decade to Shelden to find a regular with a higher BLK% than MP3. His DR% is 20.4 which is 201 in DI and more than Amile's and more than Jah's last year. He is also third on the team in Stl%. Marshall has his warts like all our players but they aren't on the defensive side of the equation. Our issues on defense remain on the perimeter and the team stats back that up.

Sorry but in watching him play I find his defense lacking. You quote statistics and how his blocks are twice as good as Amile's but would you rather have Amile or Marshall as a defender? Marshall's help defense on penetration is weak and his defensive rebounding is not good which I believe is based on his not positioning himself wisely. Matt is a terrific defender, Grayson is energetically involved in the defense, Brandon is long and quick although not as experienced as he might be on defense, Luke is surprisingly good in positioning himself defensively and Derryck is quick and does a reasonable job defensively despite being a freshman, yet the team without Amile is not really very efficient defensively. Personally I think Marshall contributes to the weakness and I believe the coaches see it the same way, hence the reduced minutes compared to the other starters. I guess we agree to disagree on this point.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This is just plain false. Marshall's BLK% is 7.7 which is top 100 (68) in DI and more than double Amile's. We would have to go back nearly a decade to Shelden to find a regular with a higher BLK% than MP3. His DR% is 20.4 which is 201 in DI and more than Amile's and more than Jah's last year. He is also third on the team in Stl%. Marshall has his warts like all our players but they aren't on the defensive side of the equation. Our issues on defense remain on the perimeter and the team stats back that up.

I wholeheartedly agree. Mp3's assets are rebounding and decent rim protection. It's his offense that is the eye soar, and especially iso offense. MP3 truly shines, however, as the second big man for both D and O, and right now his game is suffering because he isn't a first banana in the front court (unlike Amile, who is our first banana in the front court).

[Newton_14]

After health, which is always #1, the most important factor in Phase III will be improvement on defense. Specifically, improving the interior defense. We will face bigger, more talented players with the commencement of conference games so the team needs to figure out the rotations and help assignments to cut back on giving up easy baskets. Moreover, we cannot allow the opponent to pound the offensive boards to earn second chance points. Defensive rebounding will need to be a point of emphasis. LBSU outrebounded us 42-31 including grabbing 16 offensive boards.

Totally agree Bob. At the start of the season after watching them play a few games, I felt 3 things needed to happen for this team to be a legit Top 5 Team and Final Four threat (Not counting staying healthy which did not happen obviously) 1. Thornton develops into a solid PG, 2. Chase develops to the point where he starts over MP3 or at least a mainstay in the rotation with MP3/Amile and 3. The team defense improves enough where we only play zone because we want too vs having to play zone to have a chance.

Only 1 of the 4 (counting health) has come to fruition, that being Thornton has become a solid starter and still improving.

Our defense just isn't there, and I don't think it matters much which is worse, interior or perimeter defense. On the whole we just aren't very good at it. Much of the problem is age and inexperience. All of the freshman get lost a lot in the man to man, and sorry, stats/smats, we aren't protecting the rim, no matter who is back there. K being K, in all of the cupcake games as I call them, he has insisted on playing man to man trying to give the guys as many minutes as possible at it, even to the detriment of the score. He even did it against Utah. We probably beat them if we mix in a lot of 1-3-1 and 2-3, but K stayed in man almost exclusively during that game.

When we start conference play we are going to have to play a lot of zone to have a chance imo, including against the bottom feeders especially on he road. Or as CDU opines in his great write up, we just outscore them ala the Long Beach State game. We can be very effective at the 1-3-1, with Brandon the freak of nature up top. That length will get him 2-3 steals it seems like, almost every game. Speaking of Brandon's length and defense, anyone else notice a new wrinkle in the Long Beach St game, where on baseline inbound plays, we put BOTH Brandon and MP3 on the inbounder? I have never seen that tried before. Will be interesting to see if we see that in conference play and if it is effective.

I do like our offense, even though we do rely on the 3 Ball a lot. (Which is not a terrible thing with our shooters). The Super-Four (Brandon, Grayson, Matt, Luke) + Derryck, are all highly capable scorers, unique in skillset, and dangerous against any opponent. Two of them can go for 30 on any given night (Grayson & Brandon) and the other 3 can go for 20 on any given night. All 5 can hit the 3, and all 5 have shown the ability to attack the rim, again in unique ways, with Brandon and Grayson the most dangerous.

So right now, assessing them w/o Amile, we can and probably will score a lot on most nights unless we are cold as ice, like in the Utah game, but our defense is going to be porous I fear. If we play unccheat w/o Amile, it will be very ugly unless we hit 15+ three's.

It will be interesting to reassess them after this Phase to see how the defense fared and what the W/L record in the phase ends up being.

Thanks for the great write up CDU. Very well done!


>N_14

Go Devils!

[azzefkram]

Sorry but in watching him play I find his defense lacking. You quote statistics and how his blocks are twice as good as Amile's but would you rather have Amile or Marshall as a defender? Marshall's help defense on penetration is weak and his defensive rebounding is not good which I believe is based on his not positioning himself wisely. Matt is a terrific defender, Grayson is energetically involved in the defense, Brandon is long and quick although not as experienced as he might be on defense, Luke is surprisingly good in positioning himself defensively and Derryck is quick and does a reasonable job defensively despite being a freshman, yet the team without Amile is not really very efficient defensively. Personally I think Marshall contributes to the weakness and I believe the coaches see it the same way, hence the reduced minutes compared to the other starters. I guess we agree to disagree on this point.

And yet MP3 just played 31 minutes in a game where we spent much of the 2nd half up 20+. Since Amile went down our defensive efficiency has been 93.5, 97, 87.5 and 105.7. The last one is ugly but when you give up 26 points (out of 81) in transition you tend to get ugly. Those number are remarkably similar to the numbers we were putting up with Amile. Marshall is not the cause of our defensive woes. Drtg and DWS rank him in the top 3 for our regulars. Amile is a better overall player and a more versatile defender but Marshall is better at manning the 5 from a defensive standpoint. We are a better team with both of our bigs.

[Bob Green]

This is just plain false. Marshall's BLK% is 7.7 which is top 100 (68) in DI and more than double Amile's. We would have to go back nearly a decade to Shelden to find a regular with a higher BLK% than MP3. His DR% is 20.4 which is 201 in DI and more than Amile's and more than Jah's last year. He is also third on the team in Stl%. Marshall has his warts like all our players but they aren't on the defensive side of the equation. Our issues on defense remain on the perimeter and the team stats back that up.

Let's check back on those stats halfway through the ACC schedule. Our opponents are about to become bigger and more talented so my expectation is Plumlee's production is going to free fall. I hope I am wrong. I hope Plumlee develops into an All ACC performer. I'm not holding my breath. He has a lot of limitations on both ends of the court, which will be exposed by ACC big men. This team's Achilles Heel is interior defense.

[Saratoga2]

And yet MP3 just played 31 minutes in a game where we spent much of the 2nd half up 20+. Since Amile went down our defensive efficiency has been 93.5, 97, 87.5 and 105.7. The last one is ugly but when you give up 26 points (out of 81) in transition you tend to get ugly. Those number are remarkably similar to the numbers we were putting up with Amile. Marshall is not the cause of our defensive woes. Drtg and DWS rank him in the top 3 for our regulars. Amile is a better overall player and a more versatile defender but Marshall is better at manning the 5 from a defensive standpoint. We are a better team with both of our bigs.

I agree that we are much better with both of our experienced bigs available. If Chase can develop, we will also have an alternative.

[azzefkram]

I agree that we are much better with both of our experienced bigs available. If Chase can develop, we will also have an alternative.

I think Chase has a lot of potential but I am concerned (for the team, not for Chase) that it won't be realized this season.

[azzefkram]

Let's check back on those stats halfway through the ACC schedule. Our opponents are about to become bigger and more talented so my expectation is Plumlee's production is going to free fall. I hope I am wrong. I hope Plumlee develops into an All ACC performer. I'm not holding my breath. He has a lot of limitations on both ends of the court, which will be exposed by ACC big men. This team's Achilles Heel is interior defense.

I have that concern with all our players. FWIW Marshall's defensive stats did not take a huge hit last year in conference play.

[Saratoga2]

Let's check back on those stats halfway through the ACC schedule. Our opponents are about to become bigger and more talented so my expectation is Plumlee's production is going to free fall. I hope I am wrong. I hope Plumlee develops into an All ACC performer. I'm not holding my breath. He has a lot of limitations on both ends of the court, which will be exposed by ACC big men. This team's Achilles Heel is interior defense.

Looking at the BC game as an example, MP3's offense was largely his setting of screens and his receipt of passes back to the screener when they were unable to penetrate. MP3 then redistributed effectively. He doesn't roll into the basket quickly so doesn't get a lot of rebounds considering his size and position. He really has problems catching balls inside and invariably takes the ball down for a dribble and head fakes before taking the ball up. He really doesn't take the ball inside well either getting offensive foul calls or traveling. He is missing a lot of free throws so getting fouled doesn't help his scoring much. So MP3 is best when setting screens and possibly finishing on dunks but otherwise is a non entity on offense.

On defense he made a block and got a steal last night that were the result of hustle. On the other hand he seldom was in position to rebound and he tended to be late in getting a hand up on a shooter so essentially negated his size and strength. It is frustrating to watch, because he can make the plays but needs to be more aggressive. Keeping his fouls under control may be the thinking, but having him in the game with so little defensive impact is not a good result either.

[Troublemaker]

Looking at the BC game as an example, MP3's offense was largely his setting of screens and his receipt of passes back to the screener when they were unable to penetrate. MP3 then redistributed effectively. He doesn't roll into the basket quickly so doesn't get a lot of rebounds considering his size and position. He really has problems catching balls inside and invariably takes the ball down for a dribble and head fakes before taking the ball up. He really doesn't take the ball inside well either getting offensive foul calls or traveling. He is missing a lot of free throws so getting fouled doesn't help his scoring much. So MP3 is best when setting screens and possibly finishing on dunks but otherwise is a non entity on offense.

I think that is mostly valid criticism of Marshall's offensive game. I'd be fine if he didn't make any post moves the rest of the season. Stick to being available for dumpoffs and to rolling after ball screens.



On defense he made a block and got a steal last night that were the result of hustle. On the other hand he seldom was in position to rebound and he tended to be late in getting a hand up on a shooter so essentially negated his size and strength. It is frustrating to watch, because he can make the plays but needs to be more aggressive. Keeping his fouls under control may be the thinking, but having him in the game with so little defensive impact is not a good result either.

I think Marshall's done pretty well on defense. It would help if you DVR the next game and cite specific timestamped plays so we can discuss what you think his bad plays are. I think we probably disagree on some basic assumptions about what his role on defense is. For example, he was "late in getting a hand up on a shooter"? If you're talking about those 17-footers that he was allowing BC's center Clifford to take, that absolutely was part of the gameplan. On ball screens, Marshall's responsibility was to cut off penetration and if that means BC's guards passed to Clifford for an open 17-footer, so be it. Clifford made like one out of five attempts, and he was away from the basket and couldn't offensive rebound on those plays.

I'm not saying MP3's a great defender, and I wouldn't be surprised if Devin Thomas really takes it to him on Wednesday. I wish Marshall had a 7'2" wingspan instead of a 6'8" wingspan, but I would disagree that Marshall has "so little defensive impact." There are probably some basic assumptions about his role that need to be addressed because he mostly is successful in fulfilling his responsibilities, imo.

[NSDukeFan]

Will this phase be the appropriate time to jump on the Matt Jones bandwagon?

Here is a list of some pretty good past Duke juniors with their counting stats, along with Matt's numbers (granted only through 14 games):

Matt Jones 14.9ppg, 3.2rpg, 2.3apg
Quinn Cook 11.6 pig, 2.2 RPGs, 4.4 apg
Seth Curry 13.2ppg, 2.6rpg, 2.4apg,
Jon Scheyer 14.9 ppg, 3.6rpg, 2.8apg
Daniel Ewing 12.6ppg, 2.6rpg, 1.9apg, 0.8tpg
Nate James 11.0ppg, 4.5rpg, 1.9apg
Trajan Langdon 14.7 ppg, 2.9rpg, 1.9apg
Thomas Hill 14.6ppg, 3.4rpg, 1.5apg
Kevin Strickland 11.5ppg, 4.6rpg, 1.3apg

This team has only played 14 games, so it is not an apples to apples comparison, but I would argue that Matt has very quietly had an outstanding start to his Junior season that ranks up there with some fantastic Duke alumni. I will be very interested to see if this team's current most experienced player (in terms of starts and minutes played, while Amile is out) keeps playing at this high a level for the rest of the phase and season.

[mattman91]

Will this phase be the appropriate time to jump on the Matt Jones bandwagon?

Here is a list of some pretty good past Duke juniors with their counting stats, along with Matt's numbers (granted only through 14 games):

Matt Jones 14.9ppg, 3.2rpg, 2.3apg
Quinn Cook 11.6 pig, 2.2 RPGs, 4.4 apg
Seth Curry 13.2ppg, 2.6rpg, 2.4apg,
Jon Scheyer 14.9 ppg, 3.6rpg, 2.8apg
Daniel Ewing 12.6ppg, 2.6rpg, 1.9apg, 0.8tpg
Nate James 11.0ppg, 4.5rpg, 1.9apg
Trajan Langdon 14.7 ppg, 2.9rpg, 1.9apg
Thomas Hill 14.6ppg, 3.4rpg, 1.5apg
Kevin Strickland 11.5ppg, 4.6rpg, 1.3apg

This team has only played 14 games, so it is not an apples to apples comparison, but I would argue that Matt has very quietly had an outstanding start to his Junior season that ranks up there with some fantastic Duke alumni. I will be very interested to see if this team's current most experienced player (in terms of starts and minutes played, while Amile is out) keeps playing at this high a level for the rest of the phase and season.

Matt Jones - 3 and done!

[COYS]

Matt Jones - 3 and done!

One and done
Two and through
Three and free?

[OldPhiKap]

Three and free?

Was is Rashad McCants or Sean May that compared UNC to jail?

[CDu]

Was is Rashad McCants or Sean May that compared UNC to jail?

It was McCants. May was always appreciative of his time at UNC, and during their championship celebration he was actually quoted as saying he was coming back for his senior year and would try to bring his buddies back too. Of course, he thought better of it a week or so later, and went pro. May seemed like a pretty decent guy. Just a guy who wasn't afraid to hit the food a little harder than necessary.

McCants was the only of that group that was always chafing in their system. He was never really happy there. Or anywhere, apparently. McWonts is still one of my favorite all-time nicknames I've heard. Just so accurately encompasses him. (Tyus Stones is right up there too, of course)

[OldPhiKap]

It was McCants. May was always appreciative of his time at UNC, and during their championship celebration he was actually quoted as saying he was coming back for his senior year and would try to bring his buddies back too. Of course, he thought better of it a week or so later, and went pro. May seemed like a pretty decent guy. Just a guy who wasn't afraid to hit the food a little harder than necessary.

McCants was the only of that group that was always chafing in their system. He was never really happy there. Or anywhere, apparently. McWonts is still one of my favorite all-time nicknames I've heard. Just so accurately encompasses him. (Tyus Stones is right up there too, of course)

I thought "McCancer" was pretty accurate. Just ask D'oh.

[Saratoga2]

I think that is mostly valid criticism of Marshall's offensive game. I'd be fine if he didn't make any post moves the rest of the season. Stick to being available for dumpoffs and to rolling after ball screens.



I think Marshall's done pretty well on defense. It would help if you DVR the next game and cite specific timestamped plays so we can discuss what you think his bad plays are. I think we probably disagree on some basic assumptions about what his role on defense is. For example, he was "late in getting a hand up on a shooter"? If you're talking about those 17-footers that he was allowing BC's center Clifford to take, that absolutely was part of the gameplan. On ball screens, Marshall's responsibility was to cut off penetration and if that means BC's guards passed to Clifford for an open 17-footer, so be it. Clifford made like one out of five attempts, and he was away from the basket and couldn't offensive rebound on those plays.

I'm not saying MP3's a great defender, and I wouldn't be surprised if Devin Thomas really takes it to him on Wednesday. I wish Marshall had a 7'2" wingspan instead of a 6'8" wingspan, but I would disagree that Marshall has "so little defensive impact." There are probably some basic assumptions about his role that need to be addressed because he mostly is successful in fulfilling his responsibilities, imo.

Unfortunately, I will not get an opportunity to watch the Wake game as my wife has arranged a social night out. I am also not sure I am technically able to do a time stamped analysis, but that is a good idea for getting more specific.

In general again, I think Marshall has made good plays defensively, like a block and takeaway in the last game. I wonder if he has been cautioned not to be too aggressive for fear of picking up additional fouls. What I do see is a player who hesitates to go for the block or get his hand up on a shooter when he has time. I am not talking about trying to get out to the corner, which is too much to expect, but when the shooter is directly in front of him and gets the shot away without an effective challenge from Marshall. Either he is slow to make the play or he is hesitant to pick up fouls. I can't imagine defending UNC or Kansas without having Marshall and Chase going all out. Marshall started the Kentucky game very aggressively and for the first half looked like a different player, but hasn't repeated that.

Thinking back to Zoubek, he was a player without a lot of athleticism. He was massive and seemed to have learned positioning and how to impact the opponents offense inside. Marshall is nearly as large and is definitely more athletic. Somehow he has to channel those attributes to get a better effect.

[DukieInBrasil]

Unfortunately, I will not get an opportunity to watch the Wake game as my wife has arranged a social night out. I am also not sure I am technically able to do a time stamped analysis, but that is a good idea for getting more specific.

In general again, I think Marshall has made good plays defensively, like a block and takeaway in the last game. I wonder if he has been cautioned not to be too aggressive for fear of picking up additional fouls. What I do see is a player who hesitates to go for the block or get his hand up on a shooter when he has time. I am not talking about trying to get out to the corner, which is too much to expect, but when the shooter is directly in front of him and gets the shot away without an effective challenge from Marshall. Either he is slow to make the play or he is hesitant to pick up fouls. I can't imagine defending UNC or Kansas without having Marshall and Chase going all out. Marshall started the Kentucky game very aggressively and for the first half looked like a different player, but hasn't repeated that.

Thinking back to Zoubek, he was a player without a lot of athleticism. He was massive and seemed to have learned positioning and how to impact the opponents offense inside. Marshall is nearly as large and is definitely more athletic. Somehow he has to channel those attributes to get a better effect.

Zoubek had great per minute numbers for much of his career, but the effect that you mention didn't take place until late in the ACC season his Sr. year. I don't have the stats in front of me, but i'd wager Z's counting stats weren't all that much better than MP3's up to the 1st ACC game in each respective campaign.
I agree with you though that if MP3 were able to channel his energy and attributes he'd have a greater effect. Without a good frontcourt partner, i don't know how much more we should be expecting from MP3 on the defensive side. On the offensive side though...
He doesn't have good hands and his offensive moves are mechanical and poorly timed, but he could do a much better job with opportunistic scoring if he'd just stop bringing every single ball he touches down to his waist, and/or pump-faking so much. The dude is physically imposing and has really good hops, he should be punishing opposing bigs in the post. Part of that is that our guards need to do a better job of getting him the ball in places he can use it: A) going to the basket ie., NOT an iso play B) at his chest or higher and C) with some touch. That being said, there are only a few chances a game where this might happen, but we should be able to find up to 3 shots per game for MP3 that meet those criteria. We should not be spending any time setting MP3 up for iso plays.

[Kedsy]

Zoubek had great per minute numbers for much of his career, but the effect that you mention didn't take place until late in the ACC season his Sr. year.

I don't know why people keep saying this. Brian Zoubek's positioning and defense were stellar from the first game of his senior season, if not earlier.


I don't have the stats in front of me, but i'd wager Z's counting stats weren't all that much better than MP3's up to the 1st ACC game in each respective campaign.

Here are the stats, through 14 games for each senior:

PER GAME:


mins pts rebs assts blks stls
MP3 25.6 5.9 7.1 1.0 1.9 1.1
Z 16.4 6.0 7.1 0.8 0.6 0.6


PER 40 MINS


pts rebs assts blks stls
MP3 9.2 11.1 1.6 3.0 1.7
Z 14.6 17.4 1.9 1.4 1.6


So, you're right that Z's counting stats weren't much better than Marshall's. In fact, Marshall's are better in assists, steals, and blocks, the same in rebounding, and virtually the same in points. But in per minute production, Zoubek was significantly (more than 50%) better than Marshall's in points and rebounds.

But not blocks. I don't see how anybody could complain about Marshall's "rim protection" this season. He's in the top 60 nationally in blocks per game (5th in the ACC).

[superdave]

I don't know why people keep saying this. Brian Zoubek's positioning and defense were stellar from the first game of his senior season, if not earlier.

Here are the stats, through 14 games for each senior:

PER GAME:


mins pts rebs assts blks stls
MP3 25.6 5.9 7.1 1.0 1.9 1.1
Z 16.4 6.0 7.1 0.8 0.6 0.6


PER 40 MINS


pts rebs assts blks stls
MP3 9.2 11.1 1.6 3.0 1.7
Z 14.6 17.4 1.9 1.4 1.6


So, you're right that Z's counting stats weren't much better than Marshall's. In fact, Marshall's are better in assists, steals, and blocks, the same in rebounding, and virtually the same in points. But in per minute production, Zoubek was significantly (more than 50%) better than Marshall's in points and rebounds.

But not blocks. I don't see how anybody could complain about Marshall's "rim protection" this season. He's in the top 60 nationally in blocks per game (5th in the ACC).

As always, Kedsy with the facts....

I have to say, Marshall has exceeded expectations this season. I think we will all be pleased with Marshall's production in the 20-22 minutes per game range once Amile returns. If he can give us 6 points, 6 boards, 2 blocks and a lot of hustle in 22 minutes, I will be ecstatic.

Look at Marshalls minutes over his career. The past two games he has been over 30 minutes for the second and third times in his career. The other was Kentucky in November. This season he has been at 20+ minutes every single game. Last season he had two 20+ minute games. His first two seasons he had none.

He is being asked to do a lot more this season, even with Amile in the lineup. I am happy he is getting his shot after five years and would love to see him keep doing what he is doing, except maybe be a little stronger coming down with rebounds and stop dropping the ball to his waist in the blocks.

In other news, the new Bachelor is from the same hometown as the Plumlees. Anyone else......uhm...nevermind. Sorry.

[DukieInBrasil]

I don't know why people keep saying this. Brian Zoubek's positioning and defense were stellar from the first game of his senior season, if not earlier.



Here are the stats, through 14 games for each senior:

PER GAME:


mins pts rebs assts blks stls
MP3 25.6 5.9 7.1 1.0 1.9 1.1
Z 16.4 6.0 7.1 0.8 0.6 0.6


PER 40 MINS


pts rebs assts blks stls
MP3 9.2 11.1 1.6 3.0 1.7
Z 14.6 17.4 1.9 1.4 1.6


So, you're right that Z's counting stats weren't much better than Marshall's. In fact, Marshall's are better in assists, steals, and blocks, the same in rebounding, and virtually the same in points. But in per minute production, Zoubek was significantly (more than 50%) better than Marshall's in points and rebounds.

But not blocks. I don't see how anybody could complain about Marshall's "rim protection" this season. He's in the top 60 nationally in blocks per game (5th in the ACC).

thanks for verifying what i said, much of his career includes the beginning of his Sr season as well. What i was referring to, was the implication that Z somehow "found it" late in his Sr. season, when the reality was that he finally was just able to just stay on the court.

[OldPhiKap]

Z also had the benefit of playing with Lance, Kelly, Singler, MP1 and MP2. A lot of scoring options from the four (or posted three), and big bodies to wear down opposing defenders. That's three 6'`10" guys and two 6'8" guys in addition to Z.

By contrast, the big guys we have to help MP3 are Brandon (6'9"), Amile (6'9" -- out), Chase (6'10" -- developing), and two players (Obi @ 6'9" and Robinson at 6'8") who are either playing minimally or redshirting respectively. With Amile out, we really only have one scoring option down low to drag the defender/rebounder off MP3 in the block. Even with Amile in, he is not our primary offensive weapon (although I would argue our most irreplaceable player)

So, I think the stats are helpful but it is not really apples to apples. 2010 was an extremely balanced and deep team. 2015, so far, is an outside-oriented team with little depth.

[CDu]

Z also had the benefit of playing with Lance, Kelly, Singler, MP1 and MP2. A lot of scoring options from the four (or posted three), and big bodies to wear down opposing defenders. That's three 6'`0" guys and two 6'8" guys in addition to Z.

By contrast, the big guys we have to help MP3 are Brandon (6'9"), Amile (6'9" -- out), Chase (6'10" -- developing), and two players (Obi and Robinson) who are either playing minimally or redshirting. With Amile out, we really only have one scoring option down low to drag the defender/rebounder off MP3 in the block.

So, I think the stats are helpful but it is not really apples to apples. 2010 was an extremely balanced and deep team. 2015, so far, is an outside-oriented team with little depth.

Just to be clear, the 2010 team was an extremely deep team in the frontcourt. We played 4 bigs regularly, and had a 5th big playing sparingly as a backup SF (who probably should have redshirted because he wasn't physically ready and there were not minutes available at his position). But that team was very much lacking in depth on the perimeter. We had literally one reserve wing player (who played only sparingly). We played 7.5 players when it counted.

[OldPhiKap]

Just to be clear, the 2010 team was an extremely deep team in the frontcourt. We played 4 bigs regularly, and had a 5th big playing sparingly as a backup SF (who probably should have redshirted because he wasn't physically ready and there were not minutes available at his position). But that team was very much lacking in depth on the perimeter. We had literally one reserve wing player (who played only sparingly). We played 7.5 players when it counted.

I will accept that friendly amendment, correct.

[kAzE]

Just to be clear, the 2010 team was an extremely deep team in the frontcourt. We played 4 bigs regularly, and had a 5th big playing sparingly as a backup SF (who probably should have redshirted because he wasn't physically ready and there were not minutes available at his position). But that team was very much lacking in depth on the perimeter. We had literally one reserve wing player (who played only sparingly). We played 7.5 players when it counted.

But I think under normal circumstances, depth in the front court is preferable to depth in the back court. Guards are usually able to maintain a high level of energy for longer periods of time. Bigger guys are going to get tired faster, it's just a function of having a significantly bigger body to move around and more muscle mass to oxygenate. Coach K regularly plays his best guards 35+ minutes, even with talented backups. (Tyus and Quinn both averaged more than 35 minutes after Rasheed's dismissal last year, even with Grayson Allen and Matt Jones on the team) The fact that Brandon Ingram has played 75 minutes over the last 2 games is a sign that we are really hurting up front. In any normal year with adequate front court depth, I think we would prefer a 6'9" guy like Brandon to play minutes in the lower 30s. Even Justise (who was arguably last year's most talented player, and the player most comparable to Brandon Ingram in terms of role) played just 29 minutes a game last year.

[sagegrouse]

thanks for verifying what i said, much of his career includes the beginning of his Sr season as well. What i was referring to, was the implication that Z somehow "found it" late in his Sr. season, when the reality was that he finally was just able to just stay on the court.

IIRC (and there is always a first time), DBR discovered a star hiding in plain sight during his junior season. He started games through January but typically would come out after three or four minutes and not play much more. Thing is, his plus/minus was fabulous during that limited playing time, and it was remarked upon many times here on DBR. His senior year, his stats were also amazing in limited playing time, when he was coming off the bench -- how about 16 rebounds per 40 minutes.

The end of the story is well known. Zoubs became a starter against Maryland and went for 16 points and 17 rebounds, and we never looked back. As a starter, he averaged only 25 MPG but still posted 10 RPG.

[CDu]

Well, with the loss to Syracuse, we can officially put a bow on Phase III. Or maybe a better choice of phrase will be tie it up and throw it in the garbage. A 3-3 record in the easy stretch of our schedule was not what we hoped for at all. Let's take a look back at the discussion points:

Health: Thankfully we had no further issues with health, but the absence of Jefferson certainly cast a large shadow over this phase.

Jeter: This phase represented a real opportunity for Jeter to step up. Early in the season, Coach K spoke of the team having 8 starters. Well, it seems clear that this was just coachspeak, perhaps an attempt to boost Jeter's confidence. He clearly isn't ACC-starter quality yet. His inability to step in and play even adequate basketball as a fill-in for Plumlee and Ingram was a big part of our losses, as once either was in foul trouble we were toast. And in the Cuse game, he was replaced by Obi (who also added nothing). This isn't meant to bash Jeter; freshmen bigs are often not ready, and especially so in a weak recruiting class like this year. But it is what it is.

Ingram at PF: This was a bit of a mixed bag. Ingram was, as expected, terrific offensively. But against the better PFs in this phase (notsbly Blossomgame and especially Colson) he struggled defensively and got in foul trouble. I am not sure that he is ready defensively for a full-time role there.

Kennard and Thornton: Again, a mixed bag. Thornton didn't play very well in this phase. It is clear that he is not cut from the same cloth as Irving and Jones. It may take a year or two for him to really find his game. Kennard, on the other hand, showed some real promise in this phase. His all-around scoring game is quite impressive, and he looks like a future star. Of course, we can't go without mentioning the clunker he closed this phase with: his 0-9 day (combined with Jones' 2-11 day) just buried us against the Cuse.

Team defense:. Awful. We clearly miss Jefferson most here. The rebounding, defending PFs, communication, positioning, it was all lacking in this phase, and as such our defensive efficiency ranking has plummeted to the 120s.

Team offense: This is one area in which we haven't suffered so much. We briefly jumped to the top of the nation in efficiency, and are currently a top-4 team even after the train wreck performances by Kennard and Jones on Monday. Moving Ingram to the PF and putting Plumlee on the baseline as a recipient of dropoffs has worked fabulously. We really can score with anyone. Unfortunately, it hasn't completely offset the defensive deficiency, as we have lost three straight heartbreakers.

Road-ready? Again, a mixed bag. We did start out with a pair of relatively comfy wins over BC and Wake, but we began our slide with the road loss to Clemson. Of course, our next two losses were at home, so it is probably not fair to blame the location for that Clemson loss.

So now we are on to Phase IV. Lots of questions are still to be answered in the coming phase. Let's hope it goes better than Phase III did.

[Saratoga2]

Well, with the loss to Syracuse, we can officially put a bow on Phase III. Or maybe a better choice of phrase will be tie it up and throw it in the garbage. A 3-3 record in the easy stretch of our schedule was not what we hoped for at all. Let's take a look back at the discussion points:


Jeter: This phase represented a real opportunity for Jeter to step up. Early in the season, Coach K spoke of the team having 8 starters. Well, it seems clear that this was just coachspeak, perhaps an attempt to boost Jeter's confidence. He clearly isn't ACC-starter quality yet. His inability to step in and play even adequate basketball as a fill-in for Plumlee and Ingram was a big part of our losses, as once either was in foul trouble we were toast. And in the Cuse game, he was replaced by Obi (who also added



So now we are on to Phase IV. Lots of questions are still to be answered in the coming phase. Let's hope it goes better than Phase III did.

Excellent overall post and it sums things up realistically. The one thing I might add is that when I saw Chase play against top high school talent, he didn't seem to show up. Since then my opinion of him is that while fairly fluid in his movements, he as yet hasn't got that toughness and perhaps strength needed to contest inside. I have been hoping for more from him but so far only a brief flash here or there. The upshot of his woes is that we have found out Sean is not able to do much while Marshall has played a lot and perhaps finally is beginning to realize that he has to play aggressive to be effective. It doesn't do the team a lot of good to have a rim protector who plays soft. The other question Jeter's slow development raises in my mind is Vrank's development. Clearly we are going to be short of big men next year, especially if Giles gets hurt. Maybe it is time to give Vrank a few minutes to see what he can do. You can't teach size as the saying goes.

[superdave]

Team defense:. Awful. We clearly miss Jefferson most here. The rebounding, defending PFs, communication, positioning, it was all lacking in this phase, and as such our defensive efficiency ranking has plummeted to the 120s.


Coach K played A LOT (yes, I'm yelling it!) of man-to-man defense this phase. I would have expected a lot more zone to protect Marshall. This makes last year's extended zone experiment a full on aberration (at this point) rather than a trend.

That being said, I would expect to see the 1-3-1 come back along with Amile. That is a spectacular zone with Ingram up front and Amile in the middle. The length and quickness can be killer.

In addition to protecting Marshall from foul trouble, I thought Coach K would play more zone and press/trap more to keep offenses guessing and off-balance. Amile is our best defender and can guard multiple positions well. So the man defense is tough, and half-court games are particularly tough without him. We're a smaller team, so why not run more? It worked during the Boozer injury in 2001 and we've got guard depth.

My assumption about why Coach K did not go this route is two-fold. First, he knows Amile is coming back. It is early enough in the season that he does not need to scrap season long plans and teach a new offensive and defensive scheme. Amile should be back with time to get re-integrated and the team can continue learning the plans. Second, this team is young so Coach K wants them to take their lumps and buckle down and learn. A little adversity can be a good teaching tool. You have their attention.

So Coach K sticks with man defense. He does not really extend the bench to give minutes to Jeter/Obi. He lets his guys play through foul trouble and extended shooting slumps. He sits resigned on the bench without throwing out junk defenses to squeak out a win. This is a learning phase, and it is frustrating because we're losing. But we are learning and getting better on most accounts. Here's hoping we regroup well with Amile and get on a roll in late February because of the lessons learned in January.

[DukieInBrasil]

Excellent overall post and it sums things up realistically. The one thing I might add is that when I saw Chase play against top high school talent, he didn't seem to show up. Since then my opinion of him is that while fairly fluid in his movements, he as yet hasn't got that toughness and perhaps strength needed to contest inside. I have been hoping for more from him but so far only a brief flash here or there. The upshot of his woes is that we have found out Sean is not able to do much while Marshall has played a lot and perhaps finally is beginning to realize that he has to play aggressive to be effective. It doesn't do the team a lot of good to have a rim protector who plays soft. The other question Jeter's slow development raises in my mind is Vrank's development. Clearly we are going to be short of big men next year, especially if Giles gets hurt. Maybe it is time to give Vrank a few minutes to see what he can do. You can't teach size as the saying goes.

I also don't understand why Vrank isn't getting any PT. Yadda yadda, coach K sees them in practice, yadda yadda, you earn playing time, yadda yadda each player runs their own race. Well, K already threw away Vrank's redshirt option so that he could play, what, like 10 minutes this season against nobodies? Let the kid get a minute per game against real teams, let him get in there wreck some opposing players, pick up a few fouls, hell he might even get a rebound since no one else on the team aside from MP3 seems to be able to get one lately. Then, MP3 can come back in and play withe energy we have become accustomed to. I must add, MP3 played hella great during this phase, turning in some double doubles, scoring more than 10 points on multiple occasions and just being a stud. Who would have ever thought that MP3 would become our most reliable offensive option in ANY situation EVER?

[Troublemaker]

My assumption about why Coach K did not go this route is two-fold.

I think there's a far more ordinary reason. Our zones have stunk since Amile got injured. I mean, I'm talking about right from the tip of the Utah game onwards, it's been clear that the zones are weaker than the m2m, such that it is.

I think playing more zone during this Phase would've led to worse defeats. We played zone last season (although not as much as I think most people seem to believe) because the zone worked when it was employed, for the most part.

Nobody was a bigger fan than me of the 1-3-1 earlier in the season, but I would've been horrified if we saw more of it this Phase.

When Amile's back, all bets are off. We might see more zone mixed in then.

[kAzE]

I think there's a far more ordinary reason. Our zones have stunk since Amile got injured. I mean, I'm talking about right from the tip of the Utah game onwards, it's been clear that the zones are weaker than the m2m, such that it is.

I think playing more zone during this Phase would've led to worse defeats. We played zone last season (although not as much as I think most people seem to believe) because the zone worked when it was employed, for the most part.

Nobody was a bigger fan than me of the 1-3-1 earlier in the season, but I would've been horrified if we saw more of it this Phase.

When Amile's back, all bets are off. We might see more zone mixed in then.

I think the zone will be used heavily upon Amile's return. With such a short bench, we need to play zone to conserve energy on defense. It will help us offensively (especially our perimeter guys) to have energy down the stretch in close games. Our jump shooting, free throw, and rebounding numbers are sure to be better if our players are less tired.

[superdave]

I think there's a far more ordinary reason. Our zones have stunk since Amile got injured. I mean, I'm talking about right from the tip of the Utah game onwards, it's been clear that the zones are weaker than the m2m, such that it is.

I think playing more zone during this Phase would've led to worse defeats. We played zone last season (although not as much as I think most people seem to believe) because the zone worked when it was employed, for the most part.

Nobody was a bigger fan than me of the 1-3-1 earlier in the season, but I would've been horrified if we saw more of it this Phase.

When Amile's back, all bets are off. We might see more zone mixed in then.

Do you think we could have won 2 of the last 3 had we mixed in some zone and some pressing in each game? I think so. It's like those old junk-ball pitchers that keep you off balance because they have so many pitches in their arsenal, even though their fastball is long gone.

Do you think we could have kept Brandon and Marshall out of foul trouble if we had gone zone for stretches? I also think this is true.

I think Coach realized its January and that his team is young. Watching him sit back on the bench rather than changing the defensive scheme makes me think he is playing the long game, not the short game this season.

[CDu]

Do you think we could have won 2 of the last 3 had we mixed in some zone and some pressing in each game? I think so. It's like those old junk-ball pitchers that keep you off balance because they have so many pitches in their arsenal, even though their fastball is long gone.

Do you think we could have kept Brandon and Marshall out of foul trouble if we had gone zone for stretches? I also think this is true.

I think Coach realized its January and that his team is young. Watching him sit back on the bench rather than changing the defensive scheme makes me think he is playing the long game, not the short game this season.

Well, we certainly did switch to zone (and trapped) in the Clemson game. Unfortunately, we did both so poorly that we allowed basket after basket. The zone was also used for stretches against Notre Dame, and again that didn't work. I didn't see the Cuse game, so I can't say if a zone was used. But since foul trouble wasn't the issue in that game, I suspect we stayed man-to-man. So I don't think he is playing the long game. He has been making in-game adjustments; they just haven't been working lately.

[Listen to Quants]

Well, we certainly did switch to zone (and trapped) in the Clemson game. Unfortunately, we did both so poorly that we allowed basket after basket. The zone was also used for stretches against Notre Dame, and again that didn't work. I didn't see the Cuse game, so I can't say if a zone was used. But since foul trouble wasn't the issue in that game, I suspect we stayed man-to-man. So I don't think he is playing the long game. He has been making in-game adjustments; they just haven't been working lately.

Oh, well the summary is that the sky fell in and a piece hit Chicken Little on the head.

[NSDukeFan]

Well, we certainly did switch to zone (and trapped) in the Clemson game. Unfortunately, we did both so poorly that we allowed basket after basket. The zone was also used for stretches against Notre Dame, and again that didn't work. I didn't see the Cuse game, so I can't say if a zone was used. But since foul trouble wasn't the issue in that game, I suspect we stayed man-to-man. So I don't think he is playing the long game. He has been making in-game adjustments; they just haven't been working lately.

I don't think coach K believes that much in losses for the good in the long run. I think he would much rather learn while winning. Winning helps more with end of tournament seeding, which may be more important than any increased learning in a loss vs. a win.

[DukieInBrasil]

one other thing we learned in this Phase was something nobody really looked forward to: who do we turn to at end of game situations when it is close? We learned that we should not be turning to Matt Jones, seeing as how he was 0-3 in those situations. One shot was an airball, one shot was a brick, and one was a play where some people think a foul should have been called, which would have given Duke a chance to win, or tie.
I wonder why Duke decided to go with Matt over either Grayson or Luke, who are both much better FT shooters and also much better at getting foul calls. Luke is the worst at shooting 3s among those options, but the difference between Matt and Grayson on 3s has been minimal all year. Matt is also the least talented of those three at getting his own shot 1-on-1.

[kAzE]

one other thing we learned in this Phase was something nobody really looked forward to: who do we turn to at end of game situations when it is close? We learned that we should not be turning to Matt Jones, seeing as how he was 0-3 in those situations. One shot was an airball, one shot was a brick, and one was a play where some people think a foul should have been called, which would have given Duke a chance to win, or tie.
I wonder why Duke decided to go with Matt over either Grayson or Luke, who are both much better FT shooters and also much better at getting foul calls. Luke is the worst at shooting 3s among those options, but the difference between Matt and Grayson on 3s has been minimal all year. Matt is also the least talented of those three at getting his own shot 1-on-1.

Matt was only getting the rebound off of a Grayson Allen shot attempt on that play, but I agree that the 3 against ND with like 11 seconds on the shot clock was a poor decision. We don't really have a go-to guy right now. Our best offensive players are underclassmen and none of our captains can go and get themselves a bucket. I think Grayson is as close as we are going to get, and he should be the #1 option in late game situations. He's been our most effective scorer.

Brandon has also had plays run for him in close late-game situations and has come up short on at least 2 occasions off the top of my head. He had the floater attempt that could have tied the game with less than 10 seconds to go against Clemson, and a clear out iso situation on the left side vs ND late in the ball game. Brandon seems to be much more effective in the first half of games. Perhaps the effect of playing such heavy minutes?

Luke would also be a good option late since he is very creative with the ball in his hands and he's automatic from the foul line, but he needs to start being more consistent.

[Troublemaker]

one other thing we learned in this Phase was something nobody really looked forward to: who do we turn to at end of game situations when it is close? We learned that we should not be turning to Matt Jones, seeing as how he was 0-3 in those situations. One shot was an airball, one shot was a brick, and one was a play where some people think a foul should have been called, which would have given Duke a chance to win, or tie.
I wonder why Duke decided to go with Matt over either Grayson or Luke, who are both much better FT shooters and also much better at getting foul calls. Luke is the worst at shooting 3s among those options, but the difference between Matt and Grayson on 3s has been minimal all year. Matt is also the least talented of those three at getting his own shot 1-on-1.

Both the Clemson play and Notre Dame play were run for Brandon.

Against Clemson, Derryck and Brandon ran a pick-and-pop which Clemson defended well by switching. After the switch, Derryck had a big man on him so he drove. Matt's defender leaned in to help so he got the kick.

Again Notre Dame, we isolated Brandon on the left side, something that has produced good results for Duke this season. Again, Matt's defender helped when Brandon drove, so Matt got the kick.

If we were to criticize these plays, it would probably be along the lines of the plays not being terribly creative.

But we should not criticize them for being plays that were "run for Matt."

When Lebron gets double-teamed on a game-ending play, and he kicks to JR Smith, that does not mean the play was run for JR Smith.