MBB: Duke vs. Georgia Southern (12/15, 7 pm, ESPN2) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[MChambers]

Can't believe this thread hasn't been started yet. You guys still recovering from finals?

Interesting to see how Duke adjusts without our best inside player. Time for the freshman to step it up!

[davekay1971]

My biggest points of interest tonight:

1) How many minutes will Plumlee be able to log while playing aggressively on the boards and on defense, without getting into foul trouble? With Amile out, he'll have to be able to stay on the court and give effective production on the glass and defending the lane. We know Marshall can do that, but can he do it without fouling in order to stay on the court.

2) How dose Chase respond in the minutes he gets?

Coach K, who has always liked to use the stretch 4, will undoubtedly try Ingram in that role with Marshall and Jeter playing the 5. It could be an effective lineup, but Marshall is just so much bigger, stronger, and more experienced than Jeter, he's going to have to handle the bulk of those minutes, and Jeter is going to have to be effective when he spells Marshall.

[fuse]

Wishing Chase would be a drop in "understudy" for Amile's role.

Seems like Laura Keeley has already suggested Thornton with the start and Brandon at the 4.

Either way, we lose a lot of strength and experience at the 4.

Would love to see both Chase and Thornton excel tonight and play confidently.

[dukebballcamper90-91]

Obi time

[flyingdutchdevil]

My biggest points of interest tonight:

1) How many minutes will Plumlee be able to log while playing aggressively on the boards and on defense, without getting into foul trouble? With Amile out, he'll have to be able to stay on the court and give effective production on the glass and defending the lane. We know Marshall can do that, but can he do it without fouling in order to stay on the court.

2) How dose Chase respond in the minutes he gets?

Coach K, who has always liked to use the stretch 4, will undoubtedly try Ingram in that role with Marshall and Jeter playing the 5. It could be an effective lineup, but Marshall is just so much bigger, stronger, and more experienced than Jeter, he's going to have to handle the bulk of those minutes, and Jeter is going to have to be effective when he spells Marshall.

Agree with both of your points. However, these are the two biggest points for the next game.

Georgia Southern is bad. I mean really bad. They are ranked 297 by KenPom with a defense ranked 317. This will most likely be the worst team that Duke plays all year. With or without Amile, the outcome of this game has already been decided and I think any conclusions drawn from this game will be premature.

I do think the rotation will be telling. If Duke is up by 20 (I should say when Duke is up by 20), will a) Jeter have played substantial minutes and b) does Obi play at all?

[kAzE]

Given the quality of opponent, I don't think we will be able to take away much of anything from this game. Good chance to play Chase for extended minutes and knock off the rust from the finals hiatus for everyone else. I'd like to see Chase play 25+ minutes tonight. He needs to be a significant contributor going forward, so the more minutes he can get before the competition starts picking up, the better. I have a feeling Vrank is going to be involved as well, he'll need to play spot minutes if and when Marshall gets in foul trouble. Dunno what the deal with Obi is, but he seems to be behind Vrank on the depth chart.

[Indoor66]

Given the quality of opponent, I don't think we will be able to take away much of anything from this game. Good chance to play Chase for extended minutes and knock off the rust from the finals hiatus for everyone else. I'd like to see Chase play 25+ minutes tonight. He needs to be a significant contributor going forward, so the more minutes he can get before the competition starts picking up, the better. I have a feeling Vrank is going to be involved as well, he'll need to play spot minutes if and when Marshall gets in foul trouble. Dunno what the deal with Obi is, but he seems to be behind Vrank on the depth chart.

You may be right about Chase. Maybe a chance like this is what will get him into a more confident state of mind. We shall see.... :cool:

[CDu]

Agree with both of your points. However, these are the two biggest points for the next game.

Georgia Southern is bad. I mean really bad. They are ranked 297 by KenPom with a defense ranked 317. This will most likely be the worst team that Duke plays all year. With or without Amile, the outcome of this game has already been decided and I think any conclusions drawn from this game will be premature.

I do think the rotation will be telling. If Duke is up by 20 (I should say when Duke is up by 20), will a) Jeter have played substantial minutes and b) does Obi play at all?

Agreed. There is basically no rational scenario in which Jefferson's absence matters in this game. Standard caveats (injuries, any given Sunday, yadda yadda yadda) apply, but realistically we are going to win this game with or without Jefferson. Heck, we'd win this game without Jefferson AND Plumlee.

I don't expect that we'll see a lot of Jeter in this game. I'm anticipating closer to 15-20 minutes for him, with Plumlee playing 30-ish, and Ingram spending almost all of his time at PF. I say this because (without looking at the lineups) I suspect Ga Southern lacks size at PF.

I suspect we're going to go small a lot while Jefferson is out, playing Ingram at the 4 as much as possible. I say this because it seems to be that our young wings are ahead of our young bigs in terms of readiness. So rather than trying to mitigate the damage with a lesser option at PF, we'll try to flip the script on teams and play Ingram as a stretch 4. There are only going to be a handful of teams that can make us pay for doing that (UNC being one) by posting up Ingram on defense.

[Olympic Fan]

I obviously expect Jeter's minutes to increase. I doubt he starts -- I agree that Thornton moves back in the starting role and Ingram plays the four -- but he'll definitely be the first big off the bench. I suspect he gets 15-20 minutes -- it's funny Cdu also predicted 15-20 minutes and said that's not seeing a lot of him ... I think 15-20 minutes is a fairly substantial bump for a kid averaging eight minutes a game (with two DNP).

I will be interested to see who gets minutes in the post BEHIND Jeter. The two candidates are Vrank and Obi. K has to be looking ahead for the chance that against bigger teams we'll need at least one of them for depth. Which comes off the bench first? Which gets more burn? I'm guessing that one of them gets 10-12 minutes.

Aside from that, I'm just looking for consistency from the young guys. Allen hasn't had a true down game since Kentucky. I hope he continues that. Ingram appeared to be breaking out just before the exam break. I want that to continue. Luke has been up and down with his shot. I'd like to see him start hitting with consistency -- one game proves nothing, but it's got to start somewhere. Finally, I'd like to see Derryck do a little better job as a distributor.

Finally, I'd like to see the team play well. The games after exam break are notorious for sloppy, unfocused play.

I know that Georgia Southern is a weak opponent and the victory should never be in doubt. But I also know that Coach K doesn't like to waste the opportunity to get better. This might be little more than a glorified scrimmage, but even a scrimmage has value if it's taken seriously.

[CDu]

I obviously expect Jeter's minutes to increase. I doubt he starts -- I agree that Thornton moves back in the starting role and Ingram plays the four -- but he'll definitely be the first big off the bench. I suspect he gets 15-20 minutes -- it's funny Cdu also predicted 15-20 minutes and said that's not seeing a lot of him ... I think 15-20 minutes is a fairly substantial bump for a kid averaging eight minutes a game (with two DNP).

It's all relative, I guess. I was referencing the 15-20mpg against the concept that "a lot" is "like a starter," so not a lot. If you are referencing the 15-20mpg against what he was getting before, then it would be a lot.


I will be interested to see who gets minutes in the post BEHIND Jeter. The two candidates are Vrank and Obi. K has to be looking ahead for the chance that against bigger teams we'll need at least one of them for depth. Which comes off the bench first? Which gets more burn? I'm guessing that one of them gets 10-12 minutes.

I think it's unlikely that either of Vrankovic or Obi logs 10-12 mpg in a serious game over the next several weeks/months, unless there is foul trouble. I just don't see Coach K playing a guy who is not ready. I think we're more likely to just see more of Jeter if the game warrants more size. I could see one of those two bigs get into the 6-8 mpg range. But 10-12 (when Jeter wasn't logging that much time) seems like a stretch.

My guess is that the current top 7 guys combine to fill the vast majority of Jefferson's minutes. I think Ingram Kennard, and Thornton will see about 12-15 more mpg combined, Plumlee will get a few more minutes (2-3), and Jeter will see another 8-10 mpg. That would leave 2-8 mpg for the rest of the team, which feels about right for the amount of time that I'd see Obi/Vrankovic getting.

[UrinalCake]

Against an overmatched and undersized opponent, we will no doubt go small and play Ingram at the 4. But this won't tell us much as far as what lineups we'll use against stronger opponents, including Utah this weekend. Still, with exam rust weighing heavily along with it being the first game without Amile, I imagine K will play his best lineup for this game and not worry too much about developing guys for down the road.

[Olympic Fan]

It's all relative, I guess. I was referencing the 15-20mpg against the concept that "a lot" is "like a starter," so not a lot. If you are referencing the 15-20mpg against what he was getting before, then it would be a lot.

It reminds me of the old joke: A guy is asked how often he and his wife have sex. He says "Almost never -- once or twice a week". His wife is asked the same question. She says, "Constantly -- once or twice a week."


I think it's unlikely that either of Vrankovic or Obi logs 10-12 mpg in a serious game over the next several weeks/months, unless there is foul trouble. I just don't see Coach K playing a guy who is not ready. I think we're more likely to just see more of Jeter if the game warrants more size. I could see one of those two bigs get into the 6-8 mpg range. But 10-12 (when Jeter wasn't logging that much time) seems like a stretch.

Sorry if I wasn't clear -- I was talking about tonight's game. Obviously I don't expect to see rank or Obi getting 10-12 minutes against Utah or one of the ACC teams in early January. But to be prepared for the 3-4 minutes we MIGHT need one of those guys -- Utah has the most productive big man in college basketball this year (7-footer Jakob Poeltl) -- I expect at least one of them to get 10-12 minutes in tonight's blowout.

The situation reminds me of 2003 ... we had freshmen Shelden Williams and Shav Randolph in the post, along with senior Casey Sanders and junior Nick Horvath (who was more of a stretch four). At the end of the bench, playing just 59 minutes all season, was a 6-10, 250 pound freshman named Michael Thompson. He disappeared late in the season (he played just three minutes in seven straight games in March) until Duke faced Central Michigan in the second round of the NCAA playoffs. CMU's star was future NBA center Chris Kamen and he was killing us (25 points). Randolph was unable to play (mono, if I remember correctly), Sanders picked up five fouls in 11 total minutes and Horvath was totally ineffective. Late in the game, K turned to Thompson to give Shelden a rest and he turned in 10 solid minutes matched with Kamen (MT had 0 points, 1 rebound, but two blocked shots).

A year later, we're in the NCAA semifinals and because of some of the worst officiating in NCAA history (bad for both side), Duke ran out of big men and lost a late lead. I've always thought that if Thompson was still there to give us 5-10 minutes of decent defense aganist Okafor in the post, K would have another national title. Unfortunately, Thompson transferred early in the season.

Again, I don't think Vrank or Obi will go 10-12 minutes against Poeltl or Devin Thomas or Charles Mitchell ... but I could easy see a situation where we need a strong big man for a few possessions. Obviously, Marshall is the first choice, but he can't play 40 minutes. Jeter is the next post option, but he can still be pushed around. Ingram's certainly not going to put a body on anybody.

That's why I think either Vrank or Obi -- maybe both -- play 10 or 12 minutes TONIGHT. And I think we see them again against Elon and maybe Long Beach State. They are auditioning for a walk-on role at some point during the stretch when Amile is out.

[CDu]

Sorry if I wasn't clear -- I was talking about tonight's game. Obviously I don't expect to see rank or Obi getting 10-12 minutes against Utah or one of the ACC teams in early January. But to be prepared for the 3-4 minutes we MIGHT need one of those guys -- Utah has the most productive big man in college basketball this year (7-footer Jakob Poeltl) -- I expect at least one of them to get 10-12 minutes in tonight's blowout.

Ah, I gotcha. Yeah, that's certainly possible. The only reasons why that might not happen would be (a) if Coach K wants to get Jeter more time since he's the guy that will be relied more upon, or (b) if Coach K decides to focus more on getting the small ball lineup more work.

But yeah, in games like this, it's certainly possible that Obi or Vrankovic could sneak into double-digit minutes. And it would be interesting to to see which one (if either) does so.

[Edouble]

As we have seen over the years, Coach K rarely handles losing an important starter by just plugging in the next guy, especially when there is not a "next guy" available that does the same thing as the player that went down.

Someone's or someones role(s) will most likely be redefined, whether it is in this game or over the next few games. I think we are likely to see much more involvement from Luke when all is said and done, but there will most likely be some radical changes that noone here has suggested yet.

I personally expect to see the starting lineup with a serious shakeup, eg Derryck, Grayson, Luke, Ingram, Plumlee.

I am excited to see what happens.

[MChambers]

You expect Matt Jones to come off the bench? I'd be very surprised. I think Luke will play a lot more than he has to date, but I'd be shocked if it's because Jones didn't start.

[BD80]

It reminds me of the old joke: A guy is asked how often he and his wife have sex. He says "Almost never -- once or twice a week". His wife is asked the same question. She says, "Constantly -- once or twice a week."



...

Do you talk with your spouse immediately after sex? "No. But we could, her cell phone # is on speed dial"

[cato]

You expect Matt Jones to come off the bench? I'd be very surprised. I think Luke will play a lot more than he has to date, but I'd be shocked if it's because Jones didn't start.

Agreed. Then again, didn't Duhon get the staring nod over Nate James after Boozer went down in 2001?

[sagegrouse]

Ah, I gotcha. Yeah, that's certainly possible. The only reasons why that might not happen would be (a) if Coach K wants to get Jeter more time since he's the guy that will be relied more upon, or (b) if Coach K decides to focus more on getting the small ball lineup more work.

But yeah, in games like this, it's certainly possible that Obi or Vrankovic could sneak into double-digit minutes. And it would be interesting to to see which one (if either) does so.

Well, there are 31 minutes that someone will play and that Amile won't. Could the answer be, "All of the above?"

[MChambers]

Agreed. Then again, didn't Duhon get the staring nod over Nate James after Boozer went down in 2001?
He did. So I suppose it could happen, but I don't think it will happen tonight. This team needs veteran leadership and defense.

[Edouble]

You expect Matt Jones to come off the bench? I'd be very surprised. I think Luke will play a lot more than he has to date, but I'd be shocked if it's because Jones didn't start.

No, I do not expect Matt Jones to come off the bench.

I said I expected a "serious shakeup". That lineup was just an example of a "serious shakeup".

Here's another example of a "serious shakeup": Luke, Grayson, Matt, Chase, MP3


Agreed. Then again, didn't Duhon get the staring nod over Nate James after Boozer went down in 2001?

Precisely. And Matt Jones and Nate James are pretty similar players as things go. No player's ego takes precedence over the success of the team.

[budwom]

It reminds me of the old joke: A guy is asked how often he and his wife have sex. He says "Almost never -- once or twice a week". His wife is asked the same question. She says, "Constantly -- once or twice a week."



Sorry if I wasn't clear -- I was talking about tonight's game. Obviously I don't expect to see rank or Obi getting 10-12 minutes against Utah or one of the ACC teams in early January. But to be prepared for the 3-4 minutes we MIGHT need one of those guys -- Utah has the most productive big man in college basketball this year (7-footer Jakob Poeltl) -- I expect at least one of them to get 10-12 minutes in tonight's blowout.

The situation reminds me of 2003 ... we had freshmen Shelden Williams and Shav Randolph in the post, along with senior Casey Sanders and junior Nick Horvath (who was more of a stretch four). At the end of the bench, playing just 59 minutes all season, was a 6-10, 250 pound freshman named Michael Thompson. He disappeared late in the season (he played just three minutes in seven straight games in March) until Duke faced Central Michigan in the second round of the NCAA playoffs. CMU's star was future NBA center Chris Kamen and he was killing us (25 points). Randolph was unable to play (mono, if I remember correctly), Sanders picked up five fouls in 11 total minutes and Horvath was totally ineffective. Late in the game, K turned to Thompson to give Shelden a rest and he turned in 10 solid minutes matched with Kamen (MT had 0 points, 1 rebound, but two blocked shots).

A year later, we're in the NCAA semifinals and because of some of the worst officiating in NCAA history (bad for both side), Duke ran out of big men and lost a late lead. I've always thought that if Thompson was still there to give us 5-10 minutes of decent defense aganist Okafor in the post, K would have another national title. Unfortunately, Thompson transferred early in the season.

Again, I don't think Vrank or Obi will go 10-12 minutes against Poeltl or Devin Thomas or Charles Mitchell ... but I could easy see a situation where we need a strong big man for a few possessions. Obviously, Marshall is the first choice, but he can't play 40 minutes. Jeter is the next post option, but he can still be pushed around. Ingram's certainly not going to put a body on anybody.

That's why I think either Vrank or Obi -- maybe both -- play 10 or 12 minutes TONIGHT. And I think we see them again against Elon and maybe Long Beach State. They are auditioning for a walk-on role at some point during the stretch when Amile is out.

Apropos to all this talk about minutes per game, and because i'm grumpy that it's been dark outside since 3pm, leads me to discuss a statistical pet peeve I have.
I don't understand the rationale for stating a player's minutes per game by diving his total minutes by the number of games in which he has played, as opposed to the number of total games his team has played.
For example, Jeter gets credit for 8 minutes per game (57 minutes/ 7 games in which he's played), while I think the denominator should be 9, the number of games Duke has played (meaning he's played six minutes/game).
I suppose an adjustment could be made for games in which a player wasn't available....(not that any of this is important, but hey, numbers are wonderful).
An extreme case would be for a kid to play 10 minutes in only one game (and not play in the other 8 games), and hence he's said to play 10 minutes per game....does that really make any statistical sense?
If anyone thinks this is kind of stupid, I readily agree. Now it's Heady Topper time!

[MChambers]

No, I do not expect Matt Jones to come off the bench.

I said I expected a "serious shakeup". That lineup was just an example of a "serious shakeup".

Here's another example of a "serious shakeup": Luke, Grayson, Matt, Chase, MP3
I missed the "e.g." part. Sorry about that.

If I had to guess, I'd say Luke starts, not Derryck. But I don't see a serious shakeup looming.

Of course, none of us know, because we don't see practices.

[Bob Green]

2) How does Chase respond in the minutes he gets?



There is a lot to watch and see tonight as we get our first glimpse of the team sans Jefferson with Jeter's response to increased playing time at the top of the list. He has skills, but the luxury of being able to adjust to the college game at his own pace is gone. Hopefully, Jeter is motivated to take advantage of an opportunity. Yep, opportunity is knocking will Chase Jeter answer the door? I'm excited to find out.

[Edouble]

Ah, I gotcha. Yeah, that's certainly possible. The only reasons why that might not happen would be (a) if Coach K wants to get Jeter more time since he's the guy that will be relied more upon, or (b) if Coach K decides to focus more on getting the small ball lineup more work.

But yeah, in games like this, it's certainly possible that Obi or Vrankovic could sneak into double-digit minutes. And it would be interesting to to see which one (if either) does so.

I think that Coach K is going to make adjustments to the lineup/minutes distribution to go all-in on either a) or b) above.

If we go with a) bumping up Jeter's minutes in order to have a more traditional frontcourt, I would expect the rest of the lineup to be adjusted accordingly to mask some of Jeter's weaknesses or to create new strengths, eg play Luke and Derryck together more to have maximum playmaking ability on the court at the same time, play Obi more or put Brandon at the two to help with rebounding.

I hesitate to suggest that Obi could get more minutes at this point, but the Elliot Williams move several season back came out of nowhere for me. Maybe Obi is suddenly ready at just the right time. There is always an outside chance.

If we go with b) I would expect Chase to be the odd man out, with Plumlee expected to operate in the paint solo while all of the perimeter guys each see a relative bump in their PT.

[Edouble]

I missed the "e.g." part. Sorry about that.

If I had to guess, I'd say Luke starts, not Derryck. But I don't see a serious shakeup looming.

Of course, none of us know, because we don't see practices.

No problem!

I included some of my further guesswork in another post. It will probably be wrong.

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Georgia Southern, starters posted....

http://www.scacchoops.com/georgia-southern-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-12152015

Kennard gets the start.

[Troublemaker]

Coach K said on the radio it is a broken foot. No surgery. Healing timetable to be determined later.

Apparently a timetable determined now is pretty worthless. But a timetable determined later will be more accurate.

No word on the timetable to determine the timetable.

[Troublemaker]

Looks like chat is up: http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox

Let's see how the new look Devils play!

[Edouble]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Georgia Southern, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/georgia-southern-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-12152015

Kennard gets the start.

FYI, constructive criticism, I would be much more interested in this link if you provided jersey numbers for the players. As it is, for me, these stats are not worth much, as I can't pick out any of the opposing players without knowing their jersey numbers. I am unable to use their last names to identify them.

[-jk]

Sorry, my first post didn't take. For those who haven't found it:

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[Saratoga2]

Clearly they miss Amile's defensive presence and communication skills. MP3 tries hard but is slow to react and is anything but smooth on offense. Chase didn't show much in his minutes to the half. Duke is getting beaten off the dribble and from the 3 point line although are in control of the game.

Duke has real talent in Matt, Brandon and Grayson with both Derryck and Luke being real players who are growing with experience. Don't see any quick fix inside.

Sean and Vrank must be still weaker or they would get some pT.