Do you think of Duke as an offensive- or a defensive-minded team?

[flyingdutchdevil]

I've always thought of Duke as a defensive-minded team. I became a Duke fan in 2003 during my freshman year and always believed that D came first, Duke would win because of D, and Coach K was a defensive genius. However, recently, Duke has been destroying teams with offense. So, to tackle this problem, I looked at KenPom's offensive and defensive rankings from 2002-2016. They are as follows:



Year
Offensive Ranking
Defensive Ranking


2002
1
1


2003
11
16


2004
3
4


2005
16
3


2006
4
18


2007
51
7


2008
19
8


2009
8
36


2010
1
8


2011
5
21


2012
10
81


2013
5
31


2014
2
116


2015
3
12


2016
1
40


Average
9.3
26.8


Median
5
16



NOTE: This data is only looking at rankings rather than efficiency rating. This data is a measure of how Duke does in comparison to all other ~350 teams rather than how Duke does in in a given year compared another Duke year. But it is a good measuring stick for how Duke's offense compares to its defense in relation to every other team in the country.

I've come to the following conclusions:

1) It's safe to say that, from 2002-2016, Duke has been a much better offensive team than a defensive one, with an average of 9.3 offensive ranking vs 26.8 defensive ranking. More telling is the median, where Duke's offensive ranking is 5 compared to 16 for defensive ranking in the same period.

2) In the 15 year period, Duke's defense has only been ranked 3 times ahead of its defense (2005, 2007, 2008) vs 11 times for offense ahead of defense. The other data point Duke was ranked 1 in both categories.

3) Duke has been ranked in the top 5 for offensive efficiency 9 out of the last 15 years. That is an absolutely incredible number. On the flip side, Duke has in the top 5 defensive rankings only 3 times, and the last time was 2005. The last time Duke was in the top 10 defensively was 2010.

[elvis14]

I've always thought of Duke as an offensive team capable of playing good defense. I feel like we can usually outscore teams but when we play good defense we can be a great team.

[OldPhiKap]

Sometimes, the best defense is a good offense.

I think we try to put pressure on the other team to keep up, and try to get a few consecutive stops in order to create separation through mini-runs.

But at the end of the day, we are at our best when the defense is cranked up to 11.

[MChambers]

I've always thought of Duke as a top tier defensive team, but the numbers don't lie. Duke is more of an offensive force.

I wonder if you would have seen similar numbers in the 86-91 time period? I would have thought that the 1988 and 1989 teams were better on defense than offense.

I think the 1992 team was the first Coach K team that dominated offensively.

[CDu]

Historically, Duke under Coach K was a defensive-minded team that ALSO played great offense. But in the one-and-done era Coach K's defensive philosophies have not translated as well. Note that if you break this into up-to-2010 vs 2011-present, you get the following:

Pre-2011
Average offensive rank: 12.67
Average defensive rank: 11.22
medians: 8 (O) vs 8 (D)

2011-present:
Average offensive rank: 4.33
Average defensive rank: 50.17
medians: 4 (O) vs 35.5 (D)

Clearly, Coach K had some trouble adapting his defensive philosophies as the one-and-done era became prolific. Hopefully, last year's team (which finished 16th in defense despite three freshmen playing major minutes) is evidence that he's starting to figure it out.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Historically, Duke under Coach K was a defensive-minded team that ALSO played great offense. But in the one-and-done era Coach K's defensive philosophies have not translated as well. Note that if you break this into up-to-2010 vs 2011-present, you get the following:

Pre-2011
Average offensive rank: 12.67
Average defensive rank: 11.22
medians: 8 (O) vs 8 (D)

2011-present:
Average offensive rank: 4.33
Average defensive rank: 50.17
medians: 4 (O) vs 35.5 (D)

Clearly, Coach K had some trouble adapting his defensive philosophies as the one-and-done era became prolific. Hopefully, last year's team (which finished 16th in defense despite three freshmen playing major minutes) is evidence that he's starting to figure it out.

I also think that these numbers support USA Basketball's influence on Coach K's offensive philosophy. With offensive geniuses like D'Antoni around, Coach K has definitely picked up a few things. While Coach K has been leading Team USA since 2005, I'd argue that it wasn't really until 2008 - when Coach K had Jason Kidd leading an offense of Wade, Lebron, Kobe, and Melo - that the offense really came out.

[Jeffrey]

Clearly, Coach K had some trouble adapting his defensive philosophies as the one-and-done era became prolific. Hopefully, last year's team (which finished 16th in defense despite three freshmen playing major minutes) is evidence that he's starting to figure it out.

Strongly agree, this is the issue, and more zone may be the answer. Hard to play intense man-to-man with one & dones spending relatively little time together.

[Jeffrey]

IMO, our recent top recruits (Rivers, Parker, Okafor, and, even, Irving) have been much better on the offensive side. If possible, many would have probably gone straight to the NBA. I suspect they helped their NBA draft position by largely focusing their efforts on their offensive game. This may continue to be an issue with bringing in one of the top ranked classes. IMO, a nice problem to have.

[Kedsy]

Hopefully, last year's team (which finished 16th in defense despite three freshmen playing major minutes) is evidence that he's starting to figure it out.

It's amazing how much the Tournament affects these rankings. Last season, for example, we were ranked #57 on defense going into the Tournament, but ended at #12.

In 2011, on the other hand, we were ranked #3 on defense going into the Tournament but ended at #21.

Did Coach K suddenly figure it out the final six games of the 2015 season? Should 2011 be included in the era of non-defensive-minded teams because of poor defensive performances in the last couple of games while we tried to reincorporate Kyrie into the lineup?

Injuries have a major effect as well. In 2013, our defense was ranked #4 in January 2013, just after Ryan Kelly got hurt. By the time he came back, we were down to #24. We went in to the Tournament ranked #25 and ended at #31. So should that team be considered non-defensive-minded because of Ryan's injury? If you count 2011 and 2013 on the "good" side of the ledger, what does that say about the pattern, other than the fact that the 2012 and 2014 teams played poor defense?

All that said, I agree with the conclusion that Duke in the "modern era" has been an offensive juggernaut that often played good D as well. But I also think by the end of this season, Duke still could potentially be an elite defensive team. Long way to go, we'll just have to wait and see how things pan out.

[COYS]

All that said, I agree with the conclusion that Duke in the "modern era" has been an offensive juggernaut that often played good D as well. But I also think by the end of this season, Duke still could potentially be an elite defensive team. Long way to go, we'll just have to wait and see how things pan out.

Excellent breakdown of the numbers, as always, Kedsy. I agree with you that taking into account injuries is particularly important. You mentioned the 2013 team, which was elite on defense right before Ryan went down. But he was also injured in 2012. If I remember correctly, Duke's defense was already middling, but it plummeted to its final rank only after Ryan went down. In my opinion, the final numbers don't tell the tale of the 2011 team, which was pretty dang elite on defense for the vast majority of the season before trying to reintegrate Kyrie and running into an Arizona team that probably played the best on offense any team has against Duke in this entire time frame. Duke was relatively healthy in many of the years prior to the OAD era (at least as far as OAD recruits at Duke).

Certainly, Duke's recent inconsistencies on defense should not be overlooked. But I do think it remains to be seen whether or not this is a blip or a trend. Duke has only had two seasons in this period in which a major player didn't go down with an injury for a significant amount of time. 2014 was a disaster on defense. 2015, a team that featured the most OAD's of any of the teams, proved to be very good by the end of the season. The team was inconsistent, but ended up being really good. The 2011 team was elite on defense with Kyrie for the first nine games, then stayed elite until he was reintroduced, so that's not exactly evidence for OAD's being the cause of the recent lower defensive rankings of Duke teams.

I suspect that the youth and inexperience of freshmen has played a role in recent Duke defensive "struggles" (I put it in quotes because really, 2014 was the only complete disaster on defense. 2012 was pretty bad, too, but the loss of Ryan made the final ranking look worse than it probably would have been). However, I also don't think it is a determining factor. Injuries have also played an important role. I'm also not sure that switches to zone defense or other schemes are necessarily the answer, either. Last year's team hardly played any zone once the tournament started . . . and that's where it played its best defense. That being said, it is fun to watch Coach K change his strategy. We wax poetic about him on these boards, all the time, but we really are the luckiest fan base in the game. Over 30 years of success at the highest level and he's still adapting and improving.

[Troublemaker]

All that said, I agree with the conclusion that Duke in the "modern era" has been an offensive juggernaut that often played good D as well. But I also think by the end of this season, Duke still could potentially be an elite defensive team. Long way to go, we'll just have to wait and see how things pan out.

I agree with this, Kedsy. I'm still expecting a top-15 defense by the end of the season. Once Derryck takes over the PG spot for good, I'm envisioning a team where Derryck provides amazing pressure on the ball with Matt and Grayson shutting down the wings and Amile, MP3, Brandon, and hopefully Chase providing enough rebounding and rim-protection between the 4 of them to consistently play very good defense. I think Brandon's 7'3" wingspan and concomitant shot-blocking ability might be an underrated aspect of the defense in man D. And in 1-3-1 when we go 1-3-1, he will continue to be terrifying for guards to deal with.

[Jeffrey]

Last year's team hardly played any zone once the tournament started . . . and that's where it played its best defense

Very true!

How much defensive confidence do you think Okafor would have had by March, if we had solely played man up until then?

[Wander]

IMO, our recent top recruits (Rivers, Parker, Okafor, and, even, Irving) have been much better on the offensive side. If possible, many would have probably gone straight to the NBA. I suspect they helped their NBA draft position by largely focusing their efforts on their offensive game. This may continue to be an issue with bringing in one of the top ranked classes. IMO, a nice problem to have.

I agree with the first sentence, but this may just be a sample size issue and not be indicative of the future. There have been plenty of one-and-done recruits who were more defensive oriented: Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, Justice Winslow.

[Jeffrey]

I agree with the first sentence, but this may just be a sample size issue and not be indicative of the future. There have been plenty of one-and-done recruits who were more defensive oriented: Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, Justice Winslow.

I agree, for our example, Ingram plays solid D. My point is the days of playing intense man, every minute of the season, are probably over as we adapt to the one & done age. I think we built Okafor's defensive confidence, using some pre-March zone, and then he was finally ready to play solid man in the tournament.