Phase II - 2015-16 (Buffalo thru Long Beach St) [Archive]

Troublemaker

12-03-2015, 10:21 PM

Only 5 games in Phase II. I have about 8 questions for this Phase. Here are the first 4. I'll post the second 4 later on tonight or possibly tomorrow morning.

1. CAN WE STAY HEALTHY?

It perhaps seems a bit of a distant memory now but Phase I actually began with concern over preseason injuries to Matt and Amile. They ended up playing from Game 1 and didn’t show much if any ill effects, and they and the rest of the team stayed healthy all the way through the previous Phase. No games were missed by anyone due to injury. Hopefully that continues.

2. HOW’S THE SCHEDULE LOOK?

Dates, opponent, and current KenPom ranking:

12/5 - Buffalo (#160)
12/15 - Georgia Southern (#297)
12/19 - Utah (#35)
12/28 - Elon (#235)
12/30 - Long Beach St (#207)

As you can see, this is a very soft portion of the schedule, particularly the post-finals opponent (Georgia Southern) and post-winter break opponent (Elon). A good Phase to give more playing time to some guys who haven’t played much like Jeter and to perhaps experiment with or hone various defensive and offensive wrinkles.

Utah is the marquee game of this Phase and this season’s NYC/NJ-in-December opponent. It is, of course, a rematch of last season’s Sweet 16 game that Duke won 63-57. The Utes essentially brought everyone back except for star point guard Delon Wright and backup big man Dallin Bachynski, both seniors who graduated. Their star this season is projected lottery pick center Jakob Poeltl, a sophomore averaging 21 and 10.

Wright was originally replaced at PG by JUCO transfer Lorenzo Bonam, who disappointed with his play. Larry Krystkowiak then benched Bonam for shooter Kenneth Ogbe, with SG Brandon Taylor taking over PG duties. These newest-look Utes have only played one game so far as of the time of this writing, an impressive 83-75 home win over rival BYU (ESPN recap (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=400816757), Youtube highlights with Bill Walton commentating (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLpUmUWZRtU)). I feel like they're a more dangerous team with this change in personnel and so we should track their progress leading up to our matchup with them with this change in place.

3. HOW ARE THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT RULE CHANGES / EMPHASES AFFECTING DUKE?

So far, Duke has adjusted very well to them this season. Hopefully that continues in this Phase.

Duke has attempted 216 free throws this season (making 152) to our opponents’ 132 attempts.

In terms of advanced stats, Duke ranks 55th in the country in free throw rate on offense (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2016-advanced-school-stats.html#adv_school_stats::29) and 38th in the country in free throw rate allowed on defense (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2016-advanced-opponent-stats.html#adv_opp_stats::29).

It’s very nice to rank so highly in both. For comparison’s sake, UNC is 226th on offense (22nd on defense) and UVA is 315th on offense and 204th on defense. (UVA usually does great defensively with this stat, so we should track their progress.)

4. WILL INGRAM CONTINUE EMERGING INTO ONE OF DUKE’S TOP 2 SCORERS?

This one’s pretty easy to track, right? He’s currently Duke’s 3rd-leading scorer (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils) and will very likely become Duke’s 2nd-leading scorer at some point, possibly as soon as this Phase.

There’s no real backup plan to this, imo. Brandon and Grayson comfortably lead Duke in usage (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2016.html#advanced::17), and the only reason Brandon isn’t already top 2 in scoring is because he has struggled with inefficiency until the Indiana game.

If Indiana was his breakout game in terms of scoring more efficiently more consistently, then he will naturally rise in points per game. Which will be good for Duke. I’m as big a fan of Matt and Amile as anyone, but I’m most comfortable with them as supporting scorers alongside Luke and Derryck, guys who could explode for 15+ in any game. That’s a lot of scoring firepower overall.

Brandon is extremely gifted, someone who should very often be a mismatch because he can shoot over smaller guys and drive past bigger guys.

Troublemaker

12-03-2015, 10:36 PM

(UVA usually does great defensively with this stat, so we should track their progress.)

To clarify, UVA has done well with defensive free throw rate (essentially, not fouling) in previous seasons.

However, they were, fair or not, the poster boy for much of last season's talk about college basketball, the product, going downhill. It's interesting to me that they haven't started off well in defensive free throw rate this season, and they've committed more fouls than their opponents this season through 7 games. It's too early to conclude that they've been damaged by the freedom of movement rules, though. But it's worth tracking.

As an aside, I like the college basketball product better this season. The games end in 2 hours or less (probably due to the reduction in timeouts), and the game does seem more free-flowing with better offensive play.

Olympic Fan

12-03-2015, 11:43 PM

Utah dropped out of the top 25 after being routed 90-66 by Miami, but they've won three games in a row since to get to 6-1.

There's a good chance they can get back in the rankings before we play them (they are at 26th and 27th in the two polls this week). They do have a potentially difficult game with Wichita State before facing Duke, but not sure whether they'll have to face Fred Van Vleet -- Wichita has not been very good without him.

Hoping Utah can make it to the Duke game at 9-1 ... I'm certain we'll be 9-1 too. Hey, if I were a player I wouldn't look ahead, but as a fan, I certainly can. Utah is the only potential threat left before conference play starts. Win that one and we'll go into ACC play with a 12-1 record and a probable top 5 ranking.

Troublemaker

12-04-2015, 11:44 AM

5. WILL THE MAN-TO-MAN DEFENSE SHOW IMPROVEMENT? WILL WE SEE ZONE?

For the first question, probably only a very good performance in the Utah game will completely satisfy us. I do agree with what others have said about the Indiana defensive performance being a pretty good one, despite the final numbers. This isn’t scientific, but it seems like Duke’s halfcourt D is able to defend deeper into the shot clock than previously. Instead of 2-3 actions causing a leak, it’s now taking the opponent 5-6 actions, an “action” being a ball screen, handoff, backdoor cut, down screen, etc. -- anything a good, patient offense might use to spring open a scorer.

For the second question, any of these games could be interesting. As noted in my first post, the weaker opponents might be used to experiment with or hone a scheme or tactic. Will we see the 1-3-1 again? More of the 2-3 zone that played 2 possessions against Indiana?

Personally, I still like the 1-3-1 a lot and hope to see it being honed in this Phase. Quick, little guards can sometimes be torture for Duke’s defense, and I like how the 1-3-1 can sort of turn that around. It stops penetration, and then the length up top can really bother small guards who aren’t used to seeing it. It might be something to utilize against Utah and 5’-10” Brandon Taylor. (I would’ve thought we could’ve used it against Yogi Ferrell, too. However, one thing about Big Ten teams is that they do see the 1-3-1 in their league because Michigan uses it and so does Maryland to a lesser extent, and perhaps that was a factor along with the M2M being pretty good.)

6. DERRYCK THORNTON - EVENTUAL PG STARTER, OR MERELY SUB / SPECIALIST?

I doubt we’ll be able to answer this question with finality in this Phase, but we can see if he’s making strides. More on that in a second. The “Specialist” in the question refers to Derryck needing to play major minutes against teams that pressure. Regardless of whether he consistently plays starter’s minutes or not, Derryck will very likely play starter’s minutes against UNC and Louisville, for example. They are not opponents in this Phase, so I won’t belabor the point, but Derryck's ball-handling and ability to break down pressure off the dribble are crucial against those two opponents. For this Phase, Utah usually plays a conservative defense, and hopefully none of the other opponents can pressure our guards into mistakes.

One thing I'm hoping to see from Derryck is for him to make his great asset, penetration, become more beneficial for Duke. What I mean by that is that he’s only shooting 42.9% at the rim right now (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2016.php) (2nd-worst on the team after Matt), and he is currently 2nd on the team in assist rate (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2016.html#advanced::13). As the only true PG on the roster, he shouldn’t be 2nd to anyone in assist rate. Both of these numbers need to climb.

I actually think Derryck is a pretty good finisher if he can get that shot up on the glass, but he’s gotten blocked a few times on predetermined drives. As for assists, he’s currently on a two-game streak of failing to complete his deliveries to big men after penetration. In the Indiana game, there were a couple of bounce-passes he definitely shouldn’t have attempted that got deflected for turnovers. In the Utah St game -- and this is more open for debate -- I thought he put a little too much mustard on a couple of dumpoff passes to Chase that couldn’t be handled.

I do think it can be argued that Derryck is more of a scoring PG than a distributing PG with fantastic feel/anticipation for passing. But, he can do better than his current level. For sure, that assist rate can go up, whether that means completing more dumpoffs successfully or kicking out for open 3s more often. Hopefully both.

7. HOW WILL JETER LOOK IN THIS PHASE WITH INCREASED PLAYING TIME?

Coach K said in his Utah St presser that he needs to get Chase more minutes, and that they are developing him to become the 8th starter on the team, i.e. someone who is counted upon as much as the top 7, who are all already “starters” apparently. (The concept of having “8 starters” on a basketball team does bring a smile to my face.) As such, Phase II seems very likely to be a period of increased playing time for Chase.

Let’s see what happens. I’m optimistic that he’ll solidify himself in the rotation as a good backup big man at the very least. I think he has good touch/feel for scoring and can rebound. Not sure about his defense because of limited playing time, but we’ll probably all have a better idea after this Phase.

8. WILL THE VETERANS CONTINUE TO BE AWESOME?

Most likely yes. The foursome of Grayson, Matt, Amile, and Marshall deserve better than this tacked-on question at the end. But Phase posts typically are about potential that hasn’t been reached yet, either as a team or individually. These four are all playing at or near their ceilings given their respective talent levels and experience levels, imo. We just need them to continue to do it.

Now, of course, certain rate stats and counting stats will come down as Duke plays more games and plays them against tough ACC competition. For example, Matt and Grayson probably aren’t 48% and 47% 3-pt shooters, respectively. But these four should continue to please us with their play. If someone IS playing over his head, we most likely wouldn’t find out in this Phase anyway, given the soft schedule.

Saratoga2

12-04-2015, 01:34 PM

Only 5 games in Phase II. I have about 8 questions for this Phase. Here are the first 4. I'll post the second 4 later on tonight or possibly tomorrow morning.

1. CAN WE STAY HEALTHY?

It perhaps seems a bit of a distant memory now but Phase I actually began with concern over preseason injuries to Matt and Amile. They ended up playing from Game 1 and didn’t show much if any ill effects, and they and the rest of the team stayed healthy all the way through the previous Phase. No games were missed by anyone due to injury. Hopefully that continues.

2. HOW’S THE SCHEDULE LOOK?

Dates, opponent, and current KenPom ranking:

12/5 - Buffalo (#160)
12/15 - Georgia Southern (#297)
12/19 - Utah (#35) Utah should be our only test during this period. They have size and talent. Be interesting to see how coach K game plans for them
12/28 - Elon (#235)
12/30 - Long Beach St (#207)

As you can see, this is a very soft portion of the schedule, particularly the post-finals opponent (Georgia Southern) and post-winter break opponent (Elon). A good Phase to give more playing time to some guys who haven’t played much like Jeter and to perhaps experiment with or hone various defensive and offensive wrinkles. I think our back up for Giles next year will be Vrank not Obi. Like to see him get some PT in the easy part of the schedule. I believe Chase will be a 4 next year.

Wright was originally replaced at PG by JUCO transfer Lorenzo Bonam, who disappointed with his play. Larry Krystkowiak then benched Bonam for shooter Kenneth Ogbe, with SG Brandon Taylor taking over PG duties. These newest-look Utes have only played one game so far as of the time of this writing, an impressive 83-75 home win over rival BYU (ESPN recap (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=400816757), Youtube highlights with Bill Walton commentating (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLpUmUWZRtU)). I feel like they're a more dangerous team with this change in personnel and so we should track their progress leading up to our matchup with them with this change in place.

3. HOW ARE THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT RULE CHANGES / EMPHASES AFFECTING DUKE?

So far, Duke has adjusted very well to them this season. Hopefully that continues in this Phase.

Duke has attempted 216 free throws this season (making 152) to our opponents’ 132 attempts.

In terms of advanced stats, Duke ranks 55th in the country in free throw rate on offense (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2016-advanced-school-stats.html#adv_school_stats::29) and 38th in the country in free throw rate allowed on defense (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2016-advanced-opponent-stats.html#adv_opp_stats::29).

It’s very nice to rank so highly in both. For comparison’s sake, UNC is 226th on offense (22nd on defense) and UVA is 315th on offense and 204th on defense. (UVA usually does great defensively with this stat, so we should track their progress.)

4. WILL INGRAM CONTINUE EMERGING INTO ONE OF DUKE’S TOP 2 SCORERS?

This one’s pretty easy to track, right? He’s currently Duke’s 3rd-leading scorer (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils) and will very likely become Duke’s 2nd-leading scorer at some point, possibly as soon as this Phase.

There’s no real backup plan to this, imo. Brandon and Grayson comfortably lead Duke in usage (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2016.html#advanced::17), and the only reason Brandon isn’t already top 2 in scoring is because he has struggled with inefficiency until the Indiana game.

If Indiana was his breakout game in terms of scoring more efficiently more consistently, then he will naturally rise in points per game. Which will be good for Duke. I’m as big a fan of Matt and Amile as anyone, but I’m most comfortable with them as supporting scorers alongside Luke and Derryck, guys who could explode for 15+ in any game. That’s a lot of scoring firepower overall.

Brandon is extremely gifted, someone who should very often be a mismatch because he can shoot over smaller guys and drive past bigger guys.
Duke has a lot of upside offensively. We know what Amile and MP3 are likely to do. Matt has also been consistent in his offense. Grayson is likely to draw more defense and his scoring average drop with time, but Brandon, Luke and Derryck are likely to continue to provide increasing offensive numbers as the phase 2 wears on. Chase may also get more minutes and chip in with a few more than MP3 would in the same minutes. Overall, I expect an upward trend in our offense through phase II. In the ACC portion of the schedule, we will need to deal with more physical defenses so that will be where our offense will need to mature.

Bob Green

12-05-2015, 06:24 AM

4. WILL INGRAM CONTINUE EMERGING INTO ONE OF DUKE’S TOP 2 SCORERS?

This one’s pretty easy to track, right? He’s currently Duke’s 3rd-leading scorer (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils) and will very likely become Duke’s 2nd-leading scorer at some point, possibly as soon as this Phase.

There’s no real backup plan to this, imo. Brandon and Grayson comfortably lead Duke in usage (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2016.html#advanced::17), and the only reason Brandon isn’t already top 2 in scoring is because he has struggled with inefficiency until the Indiana game.

If Indiana was his breakout game in terms of scoring more efficiently more consistently, then he will naturally rise in points per game. Which will be good for Duke. I’m as big a fan of Matt and Amile as anyone, but I’m most comfortable with them as supporting scorers alongside Luke and Derryck, guys who could explode for 15+ in any game. That’s a lot of scoring firepower overall.

Brandon is extremely gifted, someone who should very often be a mismatch because he can shoot over smaller guys and drive past bigger guys.

After health, which always comes first, the continued development of Brandon Ingram is the storyline for Phase II. Will he build off of his Indiana performance? He has the talent so it seems playing with intensity is the difference. As Dickie V pointed out, repeatedly, during the broadcast, Ingram participated in a vigorous pregame workout with Nate James and came out on fire. Perhaps these pregame sessions with Coach James will become standard.

The team needs Ingram to develop into a star because, as Troublemaker points out, he creates match up problems for the opponent. Creating and exploiting favorable match ups is standard procedure for coaches. Ingram provides Coach K an opportunity to create match up advantages on both ends of the court. His length on defense allows him to create havoc in passing lanes to disrupt the opponent's offensive flow.

Phase II should provide enjoyable basketball to watch as Coach K and staff continue to prepare the team for the upcoming conference grind.

kAzE

12-06-2015, 10:12 AM

After health, which always comes first, the continued development of Brandon Ingram is the storyline for Phase II. Will he build off of his Indiana performance? He has the talent so it seems playing with intensity is the difference. As Dickie V pointed out, repeatedly, during the broadcast, Ingram participated in a vigorous pregame workout with Nate James and came out on fire. Perhaps these pregame sessions with Coach James will become standard.

The team needs Ingram to develop into a star because, as Troublemaker points out, he creates match up problems for the opponent. Creating and exploiting favorable match ups is standard procedure for coaches. Ingram provides Coach K an opportunity to create match up advantages on both ends of the court. His length on defense allows him to create havoc in passing lanes to disrupt the opponent's offensive flow.

Phase II should provide enjoyable basketball to watch as Coach K and staff continue to prepare the team for the upcoming conference grind.

Ingram is a huge factor, but I think this phase will be a great opportunity for all the freshman to continue to build on what they have done thus far. I think we know more or less what we are going to get from the veterans, so I would be looking for the youngsters to become more consistent in their roles.

Brandon needs to continue to be aggressive and use his length and size to his advantage as often as possible on both ends of the floor.

Derryck finally had a good game passing the ball against Buffalo, and this would be the main area of improvement that could really help the team. This has been a great offense despite having one of the lowest assist to made FG ratios of any recent Duke team. If we want to score consistently versus great defensive teams, the entire team will need to improve their ball handling and passing. I'm not saying we can become the Spurs overnight, but even marginal improvements in this area would hugely benefit our offensive efficiency against the Kentuckys of the world.

Luke just needs to start hitting shots consistently, he's been getting open and playing pretty good D, he just needs to adjust to being the 3rd or 4th option on offense and learn how to get hot quickly rather than through volume.

Chase just needs to play more. Too small of a sample size to even get a feel for his strengths and weaknesses right now. Amile has been playing at an All-ACC level thus far, but I think this stretch would be a good chance to rest Amile a bit and get some exposure for Chase. He has had some positive moments in his brief appearances, and I think he has the potential to fire up his teammates because of his personality. I'd like to see him at the 4 possibly at some point because of his high level of skill in the post.

Troublemaker

12-09-2015, 08:59 PM

kAzE

12-09-2015, 11:49 PM

9. IS INGRAM TRENDING TOWARDS PLAYING MORE '3' or MORE '4' OR ABOUT EQUAL?

Using Neals' lineup data, I came up with this table of minutes for Brandon:

Game
Ingram Minutes at SF
Ingram Minutes at PF / C

Siena
16
12

Bryant
19
5

Kentucky
14
5

VCU
13
13

Georgetown
0
16

Yale
11
23

Utah St
18
7

Indiana
14
18

Buffalo
14
24

The samples are small, but Derryck may be the driving factor here.

The 3 bolded games are the games Derryck started, and that's when Brandon began to play more PF. (Brandon came off the bench against Georgetown and Yale before returning to the starting lineup against Utah St).

Then Derryck came off the bench again beginning with Utah St. However, in the most recent game against Buffalo, Derryck played very well, and Brandon saw his most minutes at the 4/5 since Derryck was starter. (Buffalo is a small team, though.)

It may just be as simple as this: If Derryck is worthy of playing a lot of minutes, then Brandon will play more PF because Grayson and Matt are going to play a lot of minutes, too.

I suspected Brandon would be the starter at PF by the end of the year this offseason, and I think I may be on the right track. However, I thought he'd be starting next to Marshall. Amile has blown away my best expectations already, and I think we're just a better team with Ingram at the 4 and Amile at the 5. Brandon clearly is more comfortable playing against bigs on offense, and Amile has been cleaning the glass effectively even against legit big men. Defensively, we obviously lose some size, but I think we can compensate for it well with the length and quickness of those two. The defense has definitely been improving.

superdave

12-10-2015, 09:39 AM

I think both Derryck and Brandon will get as many minutes as they can handle. The team just has a higher ceiling with them out there. They will hit a wall at some point in January/February, and will likely screw up on defense a time or two and earn a seat. But recent history shows Coach K wants his best players on the court a lot.

Marshall has been averaging about 25 minutes per game. I expect that to come back to about 20 per. Whether he starts at the 5 or not does not matter. I think he's going to play 20 minutes. And if he's a part of our best defensive lineup, those could be crunchtime minutes.

Defense might be the one thing that trumps talent for Coach K, and Marshall has proven to be a pretty good defender this year. He's been an efficient player who does everything he is asked. I think at the end of close games, we will play six guys with Luke and Chase on the outside looking in. Whether it is Derryck or Marshall out there depends on the matchups. I am not sure who starts is really relevant though, it's about who finishes.

Lar77

12-10-2015, 11:20 AM

Marshall has been averaging about 25 minutes per game. I expect that to come back to about 20 per. Whether he starts at the 5 or not does not matter. I think he's going to play 20 minutes. And if he's a part of our best defensive lineup, those could be crunchtime minutes.

Defense might be the one thing that trumps talent for Coach K, and Marshall has proven to be a pretty good defender this year. He's been an efficient player who does everything he is asked. I think at the end of close games, we will play six guys with Luke and Chase on the outside looking in. Whether it is Derryck or Marshall out there depends on the matchups. I am not sure who starts is really relevant though, it's about who finishes.

It depends on crunchtime situation, doesn't it? If we are likely to be fouled, Thornton (the guy made 7 of 8 in a crunch situation two weeks ago), Allen, and Kennard will be on the floor. So far, Amile is showing a surprisingly decent FT ability this season, has leadership/experience, and better choice than Marshall. Jones would likely round that lineup off or a Jones/Ingram combination.

But who plays if we're down 7?

azzefkram

12-10-2015, 01:06 PM

It depends on crunchtime situation, doesn't it? If we are likely to be fouled, Thornton (the guy made 7 of 8 in a crunch situation two weeks ago), Allen, and Kennard will be on the floor. So far, Amile is showing a surprisingly decent FT ability this season, has leadership/experience, and better choice than Marshall. Jones would likely round that lineup off or a Jones/Ingram combination.

But who plays if we're down 7?

Amile has the exact same FT% on the same amount of shots. Both are captains. Amile may be a better choice but certainly not for the reasons you mentioned.

Saratoga2

12-10-2015, 04:16 PM

Amile has the exact same FT% on the same amount of shots. Both are captains. Amile may be a better choice but certainly not for the reasons you mentioned.

I noticed Amile's free throw form had changed back to one giving him a flat trajectory at the beginning of the season. Recently he has given it additional arc and it appears his percentage is on the rise. Time will tell. He has so many positives in his game that if would be a great thing if he could shot 75% from the line.

Troublemaker

12-12-2015, 11:25 AM

DukieTiger

12-12-2015, 12:18 PM

In Luke Winn's Power Rankings column (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/12/10/power-rankings-michigan-state-north-carolina-kansas), he had this graphic for Duke through 9 games:

http://www.si.com/sites/default/files/2015/12/10/pr_12_10_15_duke.gif

So, 2-big lineups have the advantage so far. (I think Neals did the same analysis and came up with similar.)

Worth tracking.

KenPom tracks the most frequently used lineups for each team on a 5-game basis, and only 3 of the top 10 lineups from the last 5 games were 2-big lineups. Of course, those 3 are in the top 4 in terms of frequency, and make up about 40% of court time.

Not sure what my point is, other than to point out that K's favored lineups tend to be 2-big lineups, but lack of depth, blowouts, or matchups perhaps are preventing those lineups from staying on the court as much recently. The big lineups still have more possessions on the year, but I think it's at least worth wondering if we're seeing a trend toward smaller lineups.

superdave

12-15-2015, 09:25 AM

Here's the per game minute distribution to date -
Grayson 33
Matt 31
Amile 30
Brandon 27
Marshall 25
Derryck 25
Luke 20
Chase 8

Obviously, Chase should pick up a lot of Amile's minutes if we play bigger teams and need two bigs in the game. But I do not think he gets up into the 30 minute range. I do think our scheme evolves to a faster pace, so Derryck and Luke should pick up whatever minutes Chase does not. I would assume it goes something like this - Marshall 30, Derryck 30, Luke 25, Chase 15 with the remainder going to the other guys.

Do we use our smaller size and speed to run more? That seems likely given the 2001 model after the Boozer injury. Does Obi pick up 2-3 minutes per game in conference games given our opponents will be bigger than these mid-majors we've seen? I think that is very possible, especially with foul trouble likely on occasion.

The positives - Marshall is playing well and staying out of foul trouble. The light came on for Brandon. The light may be close to coming on for Derryck and Luke. Two weeks until conference play starts.

kAzE

12-15-2015, 12:15 PM

Please please please let the rest of the team stay healthy. I may come come close to a heart attack on every single Grayson Allen reckless drive to the rim.

Saratoga2

12-20-2015, 07:03 AM

Here we are, partway through Phase II, a team that is not deep and one bitten by the injury and illness bug. Amile will probably not return until the end of January or later while Grayson's play with the flu or something equivalent should be long gone for the next game. We are only one additional injury away from having a short bench. Brandon is being asked to mix it up inside and if hurt would be a monumental loss, while Grayson plays so aggressively that he somewhat likely to sustain an injury during the season. All teams have to be concerned about injury but ours is not that deep, something that didn't seem to be the case going into the season. It would have seemed that Sean or Vrank might bolster the front court and that Chase would progress faster than he has. I agree with those who point out that if any of these players were ready, they would be getting minutes with Amile injured. Most of us trust the coaches judgment implicitly, it is just a disappointment that our front court players haven't come along as well as hoped.

We still do have a lot of talent on the team and need to salvage a decent record while awaiting Amile's return. To that end, we have made significant progress as I see it in some key players

I see both Matt and Luke as being similar in that they are big guards, over 6'4", who are not super athletes but are good enough to play excellent defense, score in a variety of ways and be flexible enough to play the small forward when needed. Both are smart like Jon Scheyer and don't turn the ball over so represent the backbone of the team.

Brandon is that super athlete with super ball skills for his size. He too can play excellent defense with his length bothering anyone he guards and the ability to front the 1-3-1 zone as a plus. He can score in numerous ways although having to play him inside and for long stretches has got to tire him out and perhaps impact his shooting when very tired. Unfortunately, we aren't a deep enough team to rest him a lot and may have to accept reduced scoring while he is asked to play inside.

Grayson is our uber aggressive slasher with super athletic ability. He also has a nice shot and is good from the free throw line. Of course he was ill for the last game and should come back to more normal production and efficiency upon return from the holidays. The question I have is whether the increase size and athleticism of ACC play will negate some of his slashing effectiveness. The sample of Kentucky and Utah is too small to know if that is a trend.

Derryck has progressed although some on the board are not pleased with his rate of progress. He still is our quickest player and has a really good handle. His assist/turnover ratio is good and he can shoot and score and has been good from the line in most games. I like our chances with him running point as he grows more confident. Heaven knows we need depth at guard as we will often go with 4 perimeter players and need at least one guy to sub in when we get into foul trouble.

Our front court will have to survive with Marshall at the 5 for about 25 minutes a game. I don't think Marshall has really improved with his offense around the basket or his rebounding considering his size. He can use his big body to resist centers like Poeltl and is valuable from that point of view. Those who see him as a very good defensive player are seeing things that I don't. In my view he is a journeyman at best.

Chase has the height and fluidity of movement that we desperately need inside. The problem is that he doesn't seem to have the court vision or awareness on defense and has yet to become strong enough to compete for the ball. Having watched him in AAU ball be a nonfactor, I didn't expect much and he is more of a project at this point than a gifted player. That is not to say the light bulb can't go on at any time so we can keep hoping he will get stronger and more aware

Sean may be limited due to injury. It is a mystery why he isn't good enough to get minutes, but the coaches see his play and they know what is going on.

Vrank is another story. He has Marshall size and seems to have similar athletic ability. Clearly the coaches think he needs additional development prior to seeing any or much PT. He could well become the next Marshall type but probably next year. What little I have seen of him makes me believe he may actually develop offensive moves inside.

So for the time being, we are a 4 and 1 team with a hope of developing at least one more inside player. When Amile returns, we should be competitive as a team that can make the sweet 16 and possibly further.

Bob Green

12-20-2015, 07:20 AM

9. IS INGRAM TRENDING TOWARDS PLAYING MORE '3' or MORE '4' OR ABOUT EQUAL?

Ingram is trending toward playing a whole lot more 4 and a significant amount of 5 until Jefferson returns. Ingram plus four guards is our best line-up at this point. Moreover, I have zero confidence in Plumlee's ability to avoid foul trouble against quality opponents.

jipops

12-20-2015, 10:53 AM

Ingram is trending toward playing a whole lot more 4 and a significant amount of 5 until Jefferson returns. Ingram plus four guards is our best line-up at this point. Moreover, I have zero confidence in Plumlee's ability to avoid foul trouble against quality opponents.

And Ingram actually is more of a guard than anything else. Our best lineup right now may actually be 5 guards. Sure that lineup would struggle defensively against other front courts as well as on the boards but that is going to happen with any other alternatives we can throw out there right now. But what it does do is throw 5 guys out there that can score and put the ball on the floor and potentially create foul issues for the other team with this whole "freedom of movement" thing. I don't want to give up on Plumlee, but he is just not a skilled player on either end of the floor. In some games his length and mobility payoff in hustle plays but the talent is just not there. He has no body control and very little in the way of basketball instincts. His terrific energy is much more suited to coming off the bench.

Saratoga2

12-20-2015, 04:36 PM

DukieInBrasil

12-21-2015, 11:44 AM

And Ingram actually is more of a guard than anything else. Our best lineup right now may actually be 5 guards. Sure that lineup would struggle defensively against other front courts as well as on the boards but that is going to happen with any other alternatives we can throw out there right now. But what it does do is throw 5 guys out there that can score and put the ball on the floor and potentially create foul issues for the other team with this whole "freedom of movement" thing. I don't want to give up on Plumlee, but he is just not a skilled player on either end of the floor. In some games his length and mobility payoff in hustle plays but the talent is just not there. He has no body control and very little in the way of basketball instincts. His terrific energy is much more suited to coming off the bench.

MP3's play vs. Kentucky raised my hopes for his play this year, and he just hasn't played close to that level again. Perhaps teams are preparing for him a little more than Kentucky did. Not sure if i agree that he is better suited to coming off the bench, at this point in the season, given who is available. When Amile returns i might agree.
Others have mentioned that they don't want to seem him get iso plays and i agree, but that's on the players who are giving him the ball in iso situations. I think that there are several ways to use MP3 on offense that are not detrimental but those all come at the expense of other options that are (almost always) better. However, against teams like Kentucky or Utah, which have lots of length inside, Grayson, Matt or Derryck driving with insistence on finishing at the rim is an option that ranks lower than Grayson, Jones or Thornton driving and then dishing to MP3 when the D commits to the driver. However, the pass has to be A) chest high or above, B) going to the rim and C) with enough touch for MP3 to handle because his hands are not good enough to do anything productive withe ball if A, B and C are not met. I've not seen those guys be able to complete A, B & C often enough to make that a good play to use very much.
MP3 is still having a much better Sr. season than i would have predicted after his Fr., or So. season, but his utility is still not high enough with Amile out for the team to get much benefit from him. I hope that he finds a way to change that equation to become more useful b/c i love it when Duke Sr. captains have a Sr. season that end with a Natty!!!

Troublemaker

12-24-2015, 01:28 PM

10. DID KENNARD HAVE HIS "BREAKOUT" GAME AGAINST UTAH?

I'd like to see Luke follow up his performance against the Utes with two good games against Elon and LBSU, the two final opponents of this Phase. What's "good"? Let's say an average of 15 points and 6 rebounds over the two games on efficient shooting plus passing the eye test for good defense.

In the N&O article linked on the front page yesterday (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article51119620.html), the following was said about Luke:

“Luke has to play better,” Krzyzewski said after the [Georgia Southern game]. “Luke, in practice the last three days, had been lights out. Sharp, tough, whatever. He hasn’t translated that to a game.
“He potentially can put up big numbers.”

In practices, according to his coaches and teammates, Kennard has made the adjustment and oftentimes is Duke’s leading scorer. But when he was inserted into the starting lineup after Amile Jefferson’s foot injury, he struggled
It seems like Luke has been putting it all together in practice but just hasn't been translating things to games. Hopefully Utah was the end of that contrast. It should be noted that when Luke is on the court, he's third on the team in usage (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2016.html#advanced::17) behind Grayson and Brandon, so our staff expects big things from him. I think during this period of time when Amile is out, it will help a lot to have a third explosive scorer on the team alongside Grayson and Brandon to hopefully offset some of the loss of rebounding and defense. Plus, I loved the way Luke rebounded against Utah and wouldn't be surprised if he could provide 5 boards a game from the wing.

Jackson

12-25-2015, 04:29 PM

Not sure if this is the right place for this post but here goes anyway. My daughter and I are going to the Elon game on Monday. How easy is it to get pictures taken with players after the game? Is there a place to wait, any etiquette? Any information would be greatly appreciated!

superdave

12-30-2015, 11:14 AM

10. DID KENNARD HAVE HIS "BREAKOUT" GAME AGAINST UTAH?

I'd like to see Luke follow up his performance against the Utes with two good games against Elon and LBSU, the two final opponents of this Phase. What's "good"? Let's say an average of 15 points and 6 rebounds over the two games on efficient shooting plus passing the eye test for good defense.

In the N&O article linked on the front page yesterday (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article51119620.html), the following was said about Luke:

It seems like Luke has been putting it all together in practice but just hasn't been translating things to games. Hopefully Utah was the end of that contrast. It should be noted that when Luke is on the court, he's third on the team in usage (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2016.html#advanced::17) behind Grayson and Brandon, so our staff expects big things from him. I think during this period of time when Amile is out, it will help a lot to have a third explosive scorer on the team alongside Grayson and Brandon to hopefully offset some of the loss of rebounding and defense. Plus, I loved the way Luke rebounded against Utah and wouldn't be surprised if he could provide 5 boards a game from the wing.

Luke is averaging 28 minutes, over 17 points and shooting 35% from 3 in Amile's absence. He is also getting to the free throw line and playing pretty good D. If he can become more efficient on the offensive end, he's going to be one of the best 6th men in the country.

superdave

12-30-2015, 11:21 AM

4. WILL INGRAM CONTINUE EMERGING INTO ONE OF DUKE’S TOP 2 SCORERS?

This one’s pretty easy to track, right? He’s currently Duke’s 3rd-leading scorer (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils) and will very likely become Duke’s 2nd-leading scorer at some point, possibly as soon as this Phase.

There’s no real backup plan to this, imo. Brandon and Grayson comfortably lead Duke in usage (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2016.html#advanced::17), and the only reason Brandon isn’t already top 2 in scoring is because he has struggled with inefficiency until the Indiana game.

If Indiana was his breakout game in terms of scoring more efficiently more consistently, then he will naturally rise in points per game. Which will be good for Duke. I’m as big a fan of Matt and Amile as anyone, but I’m most comfortable with them as supporting scorers alongside Luke and Derryck, guys who could explode for 15+ in any game. That’s a lot of scoring firepower overall.

Brandon is extremely gifted, someone who should very often be a mismatch because he can shoot over smaller guys and drive past bigger guys.

YES!

Brandon has scored 24, 23, 26, 15, 26 in the last 5 games. That is 22.8 per game and over 57% shooting including 13-26 from 3. That is 1.52 points per FG attempt (I was not sure how to get ppp).

His efficiency is really good over that stretch, he is blocking shots (7) and getting in the passing lanes (10), so his D is good too. I will take it!

kAzE

12-30-2015, 02:15 PM

Luke is averaging 28 minutes, over 17 points and shooting 35% from 3 in Amile's absence. He is also getting to the free throw line and playing pretty good D. If he can become more efficient on the offensive end, he's going to be one of the best 6th men in the country.

I'd say he's already that. You'd be hard pressed to find a handful of guys more talented who are coming off the bench for their teams. Kennard would be a go-to scorer for 90% of D-1 programs as a freshman.

YES!

Brandon has scored 24, 23, 26, 15, 26 in the last 5 games. That is 22.8 per game and over 57% shooting including 13-26 from 3. That is 1.52 points per FG attempt (I was not sure how to get ppp).

His efficiency is really good over that stretch, he is blocking shots (7) and getting in the passing lanes (10), so his D is good too. I will take it!

Here's a question for everyone: Where does Brandon Ingram's talent stack up vs. Duke's all-time best? I think he's arguably the most gifted player to play at Duke since Kyrie Irving. Jabari/Jah both have cases, but I think Brandon is a slight step up from even those 2. He's going to be a complete player, while Jah and Jabari both have a lot of room for improvement on defense. So does Kyrie, but he's SO good offensively, it more than makes up for anything he's lacking on D. The crazy thing is, Brandon has barely begun to show his full potential. Imagine what he could do once he fills out that bean pole frame. I have no idea how much better he can get. His ceiling as a player is unfathomable.

Pghdukie

12-30-2015, 03:28 PM

I'm going to reserve my judgement on Ingram until after the season. I don't think he has played against quality opponents game after game. The rigorous schedule, the travel, school work, etc,can really wear a player down. I'll enjoy watching him play and wish him much success.

Bob Green

12-31-2015, 05:40 AM

After health, which always comes first, the continued development of Brandon Ingram is the storyline for Phase II.

Amile Jefferson's broken foot is the dominant storyline of Phase II. Injuries are so disruptive to team development and with no timeline known for Jefferson's return everyone, coaches, teammates and fans, are in a holding pattern.

Brandon Ingram has been consistently excellent throughout Phase II as have been fellow freshmen Derryck Thornton and Luke Kennard. We exit this phase and head to conference play with a six man rotation comprised of three freshmen, a sophomore, a junior and a senior. The seventh guy, freshman Chase Jeter, remains not ready for prime time.

My main concern departing Phase II is the short rotation. When will Jefferson return? Will the light turn on for Jeter? Or are we looking at playing six guys major minutes the next two months? My secondary concern is our interior defense. Without Jefferson, the interior is very vulnerable especially as bigger, more talented teams show up on the schedule.

Furniture

12-31-2015, 08:16 AM

I'd say he's already that. You'd be hard pressed to find a handful of guys more talented who are coming off the bench for their teams. Kennard would be a go-to scorer for 90% of D-1 programs as a freshman.

Here's a question for everyone: Where does Brandon Ingram's talent stack up vs. Duke's all-time best? I think he's arguably the most gifted player to play at Duke since Kyrie Irving. Jabari/Jah both have cases, but I think Brandon is a slight step up from even those 2. He's going to be a complete player, while Jah and Jabari both have a lot of room for improvement on defense. So does Kyrie, but he's SO good offensively, it more than makes up for anything he's lacking on D. The crazy thing is, Brandon has barely begun to show his full potential. Imagine what he could do once he fills out that bean pole frame. I have no idea how much better he can get. His ceiling as a player is unfathomable.

I'll bite. I think you have made a good case and in theory it's spot on. However, I want to see how he does in the conference games because after all is said and done its results that count...

Saratoga2

12-31-2015, 08:29 AM

Amile Jefferson's broken foot is the dominant storyline of Phase II. Injuries are so disruptive to team development and with no timeline known for Jefferson's return everyone, coaches, teammates and fans, are in a holding pattern.

Brandon Ingram has been consistently excellent throughout Phase II as have been fellow freshmen Derryck Thornton and Luke Kennard. We exit this phase and head to conference play with a six man rotation comprised of three freshmen, a sophomore, a junior and a senior. The seventh guy, freshman Chase Jeter, remains not ready for prime time.

My main concern departing Phase II is the short rotation. When will Jefferson return? Will the light turn on for Jeter? Or are we looking at playing six guys major minutes the next two months? My secondary concern is our interior defense. Without Jefferson, the interior is very vulnerable especially as bigger, more talented teams show up on the schedule.

We share the same concerns as MP3 isn't much of a defensive force inside. He seems to be unable to decide which player to defend and often is caught in between and even out of position to rebound. Tough to pin ones hopes on Amile but I see no alternative. Hoping to outscore opponents who can shoot better than 50% against us is skating on thin ice. Chase has not come around quickly and may need all of this year and into next year to begin to make a contribution.

Troublemaker

12-31-2015, 09:51 AM

We share the same concerns as MP3 isn't much of a defensive force inside. He seems to be unable to decide which player to defend and often is caught in between and even out of position to rebound.

A little bit harsh on MP3, Saratoga. Any time he's caught defending two players at once, it's not his fault. For example, I remember one occasion in yesterday's game where Brandon completely blew an assignment which forced Marshall to play two opponents at once. MP3 actually does pretty well in those situations. I like and am amused by his "wax on wax off" rotating of his arms as he fakes in one direction and then goes to cover the player in the other direction. He's successfully forced some misses covering two guys at once.

I would say overall, MP3 is a better rim protector than Jahlil was last season (excepting games in March). MP3's not an elite rim protector because he only has a 6'8" wingspan, but he's pretty good with what God gave him. I thought he played very well against LBSU and hope to see more performances like that going forward.

DukieInBrasil

12-31-2015, 11:47 AM

I'd say he's already that. You'd be hard pressed to find a handful of guys more talented who are coming off the bench for their teams. Kennard would be a go-to scorer for 90% of D-1 programs as a freshman.

Kennard is not one of the best 6th men in the country, so far. His season long stats are decent, not great. <40% FG 30% 3FG, but an astounding 95% FT. His rebounding is quite good from the wing, however his ball-control skill so far has been mediocre. His play has certainly improved in the last 5 games or so, and if he were to play at the same level from his last 5 games, or improve on it as he seems capable of doing, then he may very well move into the discussion for best 6th Man nationally. You may very well be right that most teams don't bring anyone more talented off the bench than him, but talent and production are different things.
Luke definitely improved his play during Phase II and if he builds on that and improves that much again during Phase III, then not only will he be in the discussion for beset 6th Man, but Duke's team play will benefit immensely too.

Furniture

12-31-2015, 11:55 AM

Kennard is not one of the best 6th men in the country, so far. His season long stats are decent, not great. <40% FG 30% 3FG, but an astounding 95% FT. His rebounding is quite good from the wing, however his ball-control skill so far has been mediocre. His play has certainly improved in the last 5 games or so, and if he were to play at the same level from his last 5 games, or improve on it as he seems capable of doing, then he may very well move into the discussion for best 6th Man nationally. You may very well be right that most teams don't bring anyone more talented off the bench than him, but talent and production are different things.
Luke definitely improved his play during Phase II and if he builds on that and improves that much again during Phase III, then not only will he be in the discussion for beset 6th Man, but Duke's team play will benefit immensely too.

If anything I was a bit disappointed with Lukes effort last night. Just a feeling I had that he could have a little more Grayson in him.

kAzE

12-31-2015, 12:50 PM

Kennard is not one of the best 6th men in the country, so far. His season long stats are decent, not great. <40% FG 30% 3FG, but an astounding 95% FT. His rebounding is quite good from the wing, however his ball-control skill so far has been mediocre. His play has certainly improved in the last 5 games or so, and if he were to play at the same level from his last 5 games, or improve on it as he seems capable of doing, then he may very well move into the discussion for best 6th Man nationally. You may very well be right that most teams don't bring anyone more talented off the bench than him, but talent and production are different things.
Luke definitely improved his play during Phase II and if he builds on that and improves that much again during Phase III, then not only will he be in the discussion for beset 6th Man, but Duke's team play will benefit immensely too.

Huh? He's obviously not shot the ball well, but Luke is averaging a team best 0.7 turnovers among our rotation players. I don't follow your logic there.

JohnJ

12-31-2015, 12:57 PM

Kennard is not one of the best 6th men in the country, so far. His season long stats are decent, not great. <40% FG 30% 3FG, but an astounding 95% FT. His rebounding is quite good from the wing, however his ball-control skill so far has been mediocre. His play has certainly improved in the last 5 games or so, and if he were to play at the same level from his last 5 games, or improve on it as he seems capable of doing, then he may very well move into the discussion for best 6th Man nationally. You may very well be right that most teams don't bring anyone more talented off the bench than him, but talent and production are different things.
Luke definitely improved his play during Phase II and if he builds on that and improves that much again during Phase III, then not only will he be in the discussion for beset 6th Man, but Duke's team play will benefit immensely too.

I just checked stats on the top 25 teams in the AP and Luke is the only 6th man averaging double digit ppg. I am not sure of "starters" so I used minutes per game to judge the 5 starters.

Seems to me Luke is already the best 6th man based on this metric.