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Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-30-2015, 12:36 PM
[SPOILER ALERT: OLD MAN RANT WILL FOLLOW THIS DISCLAIMER - BE ADVISED]

/Cue Andy Rooney voice

You know what really chaps my hide lately across the sporting universe, from ESPN all the way down to this forum and bar conversations? Knee jerk reactions to EVERYTHING that just happened. I will list a few examples from this board and the sporting community that we ought to all be familiar enough with.

Duke wins the national championship, boosted by a gutty performance from Grayson Allen. Take away talking point - Allen could go pro with the other two freshman studs!

Duke loses to Kentucky two weeks ago. Talking points -Allen should stay at least one more full season, he isn't ready to face real athletes.

Football edges Va Tech in 4 OTs - this team just finds ways to win! Fun to watch! Overacheiving and the sky is the limit. Cutcliffe for president!

Duke loses the next two games - this team was always overrated and never stood a chance of contending for a conference title. Our play calling is horrible and we are overmatched physically at every position. Shame on us for getting suckered into believing in these guys.

Duke edges Wake in the final week - so much to celebrate with this team! We have come so far! Our disappointment reflects such different expectations than before. Let's go win our bowl game and be even better next year!

Honestly, it is enough to make a fan's head spin. In this instant-analysis age, people are SO eager to make huge pronouncements on the basis of what they saw five minutes ago, there is zero sense of perspective. The hyperbole of seeing Duke as either a middle-ACC team with 12 losses or a serious Final Four contender makes me queasy.

Perhaps I shouldn't be so thin-skinned, but when I see posts saying "MP3 just dunked! Why doesn't that idiot coach play him more?" (last season's rallying cry) or "Brandon Ingram will isn't living up to the hype, what is wrong let's bench him" (after four games) it makes me want to ask our fans to take a deep breath.

Perhaps someone not on a mobile device can select a few of the more choice "sky is falling" comments from championship years on this forum to illustrate my point. The same frustration stems from "you should have seen summer practice, Player X is going to explode this fall."

I don't know whether this oversimplified "analysis" is just an instant gratification reality of our new Twitterverse, or just a desire to be "FIRST!" in having declared Ingram a bust or MP3 a stud, but it makes my head hurt.

Now then: I don't pretend it is going anywhere or likely to change. I just don't like it, and would feel better if some other old fogies would echo my sentiments. Otherwise, I will gracefully leave this here and go back to reading instant polls on whether LSU should havr fired Miles after a few bad games.

COYS
11-30-2015, 12:50 PM
I don't know whether this oversimplified "analysis" is just an instant gratification reality of our new Twitterverse, or just a desire to be "FIRST!" in having declared Ingram a bust or MP3 a stud, but it makes my head hurt.

Now then: I don't pretend it is going anywhere or likely to change. I just don't like it, and would feel better if some other old fogies would echo my sentiments. Otherwise, I will gracefully leave this here and go back to reading instant polls on whether LSU should havr fired Miles after a few bad games.

I completely agree that people are prone to over-valuing the most recent impression they have of a player/team. But I don't think this is anything new. I think it's a human characteristic. More experienced fans tend to react less strongly one way or the other simply because they've seen more ups and downs and understand that things will probably even out, soon enough. I feel that I'm generally pretty even-keeled as a fan. But my immediate reaction to a big loss or a big win is always pretty hyperbolic (I hit my head on a door way jumping around when Tyus drilled the late three against Wisconsin shouting, "We're the greatest! We're the greatest!")

That being said, I think the internet just makes it harder to tune out hyperbole in either direction. Fans can post their reactions immediately for all to see. Instead of someone just talking at the water cooler about a player, they're putting it out there where everyone can read it. I think it just makes it seem like we're jumping to conclusions based on small sample-sizes when, in reality, fans are just doing what they've always done. Sportswriters on sites like ESPN know that a big part of being a fan is catharsis. They profit off of that. Many sportswriters simply feed the beast. And that beast is easier to feed when instant communication like Twitter is possible.

NashvilleDevil
11-30-2015, 01:23 PM
[SPOILER ALERT: OLD MAN RANT WILL FOLLOW THIS DISCLAIMER - BE ADVISED]

/Cue Andy Rooney voice

You know what really chaps my hide lately across the sporting universe, from ESPN all the way down to this forum and bar conversations? Knee jerk reactions to EVERYTHING that just happened. I will list a few examples from this board and the sporting community that we ought to all be familiar enough with.

Duke wins the national championship, boosted by a gutty performance from Grayson Allen. Take away talking point - Allen could go pro with the other two freshman studs!

Duke loses to Kentucky two weeks ago. Talking points -Allen should stay at least one more full season, he isn't ready to face real athletes.

Football edges Va Tech in 4 OTs - this team just finds ways to win! Fun to watch! Overacheiving and the sky is the limit. Cutcliffe for president!

Duke loses the next two games - this team was always overrated and never stood a chance of contending for a conference title. Our play calling is horrible and we are overmatched physically at every position. Shame on us for getting suckered into believing in these guys.

Duke edges Wake in the final week - so much to celebrate with this team! We have come so far! Our disappointment reflects such different expectations than before. Let's go win our bowl game and be even better next year!

Honestly, it is enough to make a fan's head spin. In this instant-analysis age, people are SO eager to make huge pronouncements on the basis of what they saw five minutes ago, there is zero sense of perspective. The hyperbole of seeing Duke as either a middle-ACC team with 12 losses or a serious Final Four contender makes me queasy.

Perhaps I shouldn't be so thin-skinned, but when I see posts saying "MP3 just dunked! Why doesn't that idiot coach play him more?" (last season's rallying cry) or "Brandon Ingram will isn't living up to the hype, what is wrong let's bench him" (after four games) it makes me want to ask our fans to take a deep breath.

Perhaps someone not on a mobile device can select a few of the more choice "sky is falling" comments from championship years on this forum to illustrate my point. The same frustration stems from "you should have seen summer practice, Player X is going to explode this fall."

I don't know whether this oversimplified "analysis" is just an instant gratification reality of our new Twitterverse, or just a desire to be "FIRST!" in having declared Ingram a bust or MP3 a stud, but it makes my head hurt.

Now then: I don't pretend it is going anywhere or likely to change. I just don't like it, and would feel better if some other old fogies would echo my sentiments. Otherwise, I will gracefully leave this here and go back to reading instant polls on whether LSU should havr fired Miles after a few bad games.

Forget it Mtn. Devil it's the internet.

camion
11-30-2015, 01:26 PM
BB Recency Bias: Once it drops off of the first page of the bulletin board it's gone.

Troublemaker
11-30-2015, 01:30 PM
I feel like I've been recently guilty of this with Derryck. After his MSG games, I thought he would just continue on an upward path, and I even wrote that it had crossed my mind that he could be OAD.

But it looks like there will be more ups and downs to be had with Derryck. And that's fine! He's a freaking 18-yr-old freshman.

Tom B.
11-30-2015, 01:30 PM
The funny thing is that I went through just about every one of those emotional swings while following the football team this year, but they ended up pretty much where I thought they'd be. A friend of mine runs a contest at the beginning of each football season in which we try to predict the number of wins the team will have at the end of the season, and this year I picked seven. My rationale: I thought we'd overachieved a bit the last two seasons (not that I'm complaining -- they were very enjoyable seasons!), and might come down to earth a bit this year. I just didn't think it would unfold the way it did, with some of our early season competition being weaker than expected (Georgia Tech), some of our late season competition being stronger than expected (e.g., Virginia, which had improved from lousy to something resembling passable football by the time we played them, and they caught us in a rough patch), and one loss to a team that I thought we'd probably lose to, though I never in my wildest dreams imagined how it would happen (Miami).

Hope the guys can make a liar out of me and get win number eight in a bowl.

Potato Head
11-30-2015, 01:56 PM
Duke edges Wake in the final week - so much to celebrate with this team! We have come so far! Our disappointment reflects such different expectations than before. Let's go win our bowl game and be even better next year!

This one isn't so much a knee jerk as it is reasonable, positive optimism.

Spot on about everything else, though. I don't think everybody is really that fickle, I just think that people have different opinions about stuff, and when a result matches up with one group's opinions about something they're going to be really loud and people with the opposing opinion aren't. The media wants to appeal to everyone so they're going to be unreasonable and react to everything so that everybody has something they're amused by. Not just sports, any type of news these days is just talking heads that force themselves to have opinions on everything without any perspective whatsoever.

mkirsh
11-30-2015, 02:23 PM
Try being a Skins fan in DC - last week everyone was calling for Gruden to be fired and RG3 to play; this week we're palyoff bound and need to extend Cousins before someone else nabs him in free agency. It's a function of more media outlets needing to fill air time, and opinion being the preferred content of said media outlets. Turn on ESPN and you don't find highlights of the incredible Broncos-Pats game, but instead debate on whether Manning and his 5 MVPs is the GOAT vs Brady and his 4 super bowls (with asterisks, and those need debate too) is the GOAT. Opinion draws eyeballs and sells ads, and the more controversial the better, so recent events get over-magnified to fill the time.

Listen to Quants
11-30-2015, 02:34 PM
I feel like I've been recently guilty of this with Derryck. After his MSG games, I thought he would just continue on an upward path, and I even wrote that it had crossed my mind that he could be OAD.

But it looks like there will be more ups and downs to be had with Derryck. And that's fine! He's a freaking 18-yr-old freshman.

Sure, me too. However, if you are willing to say, "hey, we are just updating our priors with new data in a data-thin space so we are being perfectly rational" then I am.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-30-2015, 05:36 PM
Sure, me too. However, if you are willing to say, "hey, we are just updating our priors with new data in a data-thin space so we are being perfectly rational" then I am.

I guess what I am trying to say is... I am the only level-headed person on the internet!

/eye roll/

Well, thanks for those of you who piped up here or in a message echoing my frustration. I agree that some of it is the difference in being young and being jaded, some is our lovely new "internet age," and some just comes from the nature of fandom.

As fans, we react - sometimes disproportionately - to the successes and failures of our team. That is part of what it means to care.

Isaac Sours
11-30-2015, 06:07 PM
[SPOILER ALERT: OLD MAN RANT WILL FOLLOW THIS DISCLAIMER - BE ADVISED]
Otherwise, I will gracefully leave this here and go back to reading instant polls on whether LSU should havr fired Miles after a few bad games.

The SEC coaching carousel is to me. Cutcliffe was fired by Ole Miss after a 10-3 season a while back (and im thankful for it, since we have him now). Now Richt was fired at UGA after a 3 loss season. Miles was almost out the door. It's ridiculous. You can't win the national championship on an undefeated season every year. Not even Saban and the Tide figured out how to never lose.

Sometimes, teams lose a game due to pure dumb luck, or human fallibility, or unforseen circumstances. Coaches don't have control over every second of the game. They don't. It's unfair to blame them for everything, and fire them after 8,9,10 win seasons.

duke74
11-30-2015, 06:17 PM
I recently retired (mandatory) from Deloitte after 38 years (27 as ptr), and also am an adjunct professor at St. John's University in NY in the Accounting and Taxation Dept.

One of the most important considerations for auditors is professional skepticism as we perform our work, and a significant piece of that is the recognition and overcoming of biases (confirmation, availability, etc), including "recency bias." What has occurred recently plays a greater role in evaluating, say, audit evidence. We stress this to our professionals (as have the regulators). I also teach this to my grad students in my Accounting Ethics and Professionalism class.

So, this is not a localized or even unusual phenomenon. The trick, I think, is to recognize that the bias (or tendency) exists and deal with it appropriately.

Bob Green
11-30-2015, 06:32 PM
Cutcliffe was fired by Ole Miss after a 10-3 season a while back (and im thankful for it, since we have him now).

Perhaps I am misunderstanding your statement; however, Coach Cutcliffe was 4-7 his last season (2004) at Ole Miss. He was 10-3 the year before (2003) including a Cotton Bowl victory.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-30-2015, 06:59 PM
I recently retired (mandatory) from Deloitte after 38 years (27 as ptr), and also am an adjunct professor at St. John's University in NY in the Accounting and Taxation Dept.

One of the most important considerations for auditors is professional skepticism as we perform our work, and a significant piece of that is the recognition and overcoming of biases (confirmation, availability, etc), including "recency bias." What has occurred recently plays a greater role in evaluating, say, audit evidence. We stress this to our professionals (as have the regulators). I also teach this to my grad students in my Accounting Ethics and Professionalism class.

So, this is not a localized or even unusual phenomenon. The trick, I think, is to recognize that the bias (or tendency) exists and deal with it appropriately.

I take it back - you are the most reasonable person on the internet

duke74
11-30-2015, 07:05 PM
I take it back - you are the most reasonable person on the internet

My wife of 40 years might disagree, but appreciate the compliment. :)

devil84
12-01-2015, 10:26 AM
Honestly, it is enough to make a fan's head spin. In this instant-analysis age, people are SO eager to make huge pronouncements on the basis of what they saw five minutes ago, there is zero sense of perspective. The hyperbole of seeing Duke as either a middle-ACC team with 12 losses or a serious Final Four contender makes me queasy.

Perhaps I shouldn't be so thin-skinned, but when I see posts saying "MP3 just dunked! Why doesn't that idiot coach play him more?" (last season's rallying cry) or "Brandon Ingram will isn't living up to the hype, what is wrong let's bench him" (after four games) it makes me want to ask our fans to take a deep breath.

Perhaps someone not on a mobile device can select a few of the more choice "sky is falling" comments from championship years on this forum to illustrate my point. The same frustration stems from "you should have seen summer practice, Player X is going to explode this fall."

I don't know whether this oversimplified "analysis" is just an instant gratification reality of our new Twitterverse, or just a desire to be "FIRST!" in having declared Ingram a bust or MP3 a stud, but it makes my head hurt.

Now then: I don't pretend it is going anywhere or likely to change. I just don't like it, and would feel better if some other old fogies would echo my sentiments. Otherwise, I will gracefully leave this here and go back to reading instant polls on whether LSU should havr fired Miles after a few bad games.

Old fogey here. Just remember that people tend post on the Internet when they have strong feelings. Those of us who feel that the 18-23 year olds on the team will likely be normal student-athletes who might just be somewhat inconsistent from game to game aren't posting our proclamations of greatness (or less-than-greatness). It's fun to watch the journey. I'm just not that moved to post when one of these young men's performance doesn't match my expectations. But that's just me...and the Internet doesn't exist without people voicing their opinions. They're fun to read, mostly, except when they swing from "Isn't player X AWESOME?" to "BENCH PLAYER X" to "PLAYER X IS AMAZING" in the span of three games. I am SO thankful the Internet did not exist when I was with the team! I couldn't have dealt with that kind of pressure from our own fans!

So, I totally agree with you, MtnDevil. Sometimes the oversimplification, the instant gratification, the hyperventilating over small details or a single game performance makes my head hurt. For what it's worth, it's not always generational, as my 24 and 26 year old children agree with us old fogeys. I try to look at posts/threads like that and see the passionate Duke fan behind the words. That's a good thing. If watching these young men doesn't bring you to emotional extremes, then you're probably not reading or posting here. I love passionate Duke fans! However, we do have to have SOMETHING to talk about, and extremes in emotions and expectations bubbles to the top.

One thing that I've noticed about the Internet is that every post has the same importance. It's all the same text, no volume or inflection to differentiate it from the next; no ability to see the looks on people's faces after reading it; the only real difference is the poster's name and avatar (and that can be a HUGE difference indicating quality and knowledge -- though some readers overlook reading the name). Some posters stand out due to the quality their (usually prolific) postings, others who don't post often can run together. It's kind of easy to think that the "whole board" thinks that because PosterA wrote a lengthy post extolling PlayerX's many virtues after game 1, then PosterB posted a memorable post detailing PlayerX's numerous shortcomings after Game 2, then PosterC posts a memorable, lengthy post about PlayerX's many positive contributions to Game3. The reality is that it's three memorable posts, not the collective mindset of every Duke fan out there -- most of whom aren't posting! Looking at it this way helps me keep my sanity when reading the boards.