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CharlestonDave
11-30-2015, 01:00 AM
I know it is way, way early in the season and this team should only get better as the season goes on .

That said, from what you have seen to date , realistically how far do you think Duke can go in March? Of course injuries could play a significant role but obviously no one can predict that.

kAzE
11-30-2015, 01:29 AM
I believe a Final Four is in play here, given good luck with health and continued development. It's about a good combination of experience and talent as anyone in the country, and with the best coach, it's hard not to like this team a lot. The offensive firepower from the perimeter is insane, and we're so versatile defensively, able to give the opposition so many different looks on D. This is a team built to win in different ways if necessary, and that's a nice thing to have in your back pocket.

Jim3k
11-30-2015, 02:11 AM
I believe a Final Four is in play here, given good luck with health and continued development. It's about a good combination of experience and talent as anyone in the country, and with the best coach, it's hard not to like this team a lot. The offensive firepower from the perimeter is insane, and we're so versatile defensively, able to give the opposition so many different looks on D. This is a team built to win in different ways if necessary, and that's a nice thing to have in your back pocket.

"So yer telling me there's a chance?"

OldPhiKap
11-30-2015, 06:32 AM
As far as our defense will take us.

If we do that and stay healthy, the sky's the limit. There is no dominant team out there that is head and shoulders above everyone else.

I will say this though -- mid-majors are having a good start to the season. Tourney gets more parity every year it seems.

OZZIE4DUKE
11-30-2015, 07:09 AM
39-1, and we've already lost the 1. LGD!

Bluedevil114
11-30-2015, 07:09 AM
There is not a dominate team this year. Kentucky and Kansas may be the two best with several teams in the mix for the next two spots. What has to happen for Duke to compete for a national championship this year?

1. Defense needs to improve especially with the man to man defense.
2. Thornton has to develop into a distributor and claim the majority of the point guard minutes.
3. Marshall and Jefferson have to be a threat to score to keep defenses honest like the Utah State game.
4. Grayson, Luke and Matt need to continue to hit from deep and drive to the rim to draw contact.
5. Ingram needs to get more aggressive and learn when to drive versus settle for the jumper.
6. Reduce turnovers.
7. Limit the other team ability and ease to drive to the basket.
8. Reduce the number of silly fouls.
9. All five players rebound.
10. Avoid injuries.

That's it. We do these ten things we hang another banner. Get to work Coach K. Go Duke!

davekay1971
11-30-2015, 07:31 AM
Sort of a pointless thought game, IM(h)O, and not one I love. Here's my thoughts as to why...

1) Even if this were a junior/senior laden team, it would be too early in the season to get an idea how good they will be 4 months from now. Players develop all the way through college, even during their senior years (yes, Mr. Zoubek, I AM talking about you).

2) This team has 4 freshmen likely to contribute anywhere from spot sub minutes to major starter minutes. They have already grown tremendously in the last month. Add another four months of much more competitive play...we have no idea how they'll look in March/April.

3) Our star player is a sophomore who played as a limited reserve for most of last season and had his coming out party during the last game of last season. Scary as it is, Greyson Allen still has less college basketball court time now than Justise Winslow had January of last year. He will also be developing as the season progresses.

4) Half of our team still need to learn how to play defense. The Parker/Hood team never did learn. Last year's team was spotty defensively then became a defensive juggernaut in March. Again, we have no idea how this team will look on the defensive side of the court in four months.

5) "How far we go" in March also depends on how well other heavily freshmen-laden teams develop, who we get in matchups, etc. Is there much difference in quality of a team that hits a bad matchup in a bad day in the Sweet 16 and one that makes the Final Four? No. The 2011 Duke squad was one of the best of K's career, and got bounced by a red-hot Arizona team while Duke was still trying to work back in a future NBA all-star who'd missed most of the season with injury. Roll out the ball November 30 (before Kyrie went down with his foot injury) between the 2014-2015 Duke team and the 2010-2011 Duke team and the Irving/Singler/Smith team would eat the Parker/Winslow/Jones team and spit out their bones. But the 2011 team ran into a hot opponent when they were still struggling with repercussions of an injury and they were gone in the Sweet 16. The 2015 team stayed healthy and found their defensive groove at the right time and won the natty. Anyone see all that coming in November of 2010 and 2014?

6) Just personally, I hate focusing on the NCAA tournament during the first parts of the season. This is an exciting young team that has to develop itself, it's identity...as K says, to run it's own race. None of us has a clue how they'll do in the NCAAT, and right now, it doesn't matter. Let's see how they do against Indiana for starters.

Now...GET OFF MY LAWN!

Indoor66
11-30-2015, 08:21 AM
If this team continues to develop at the pace it has up to this point, it has a very high ceiling. I got my bet down!

flyingdutchdevil
11-30-2015, 08:44 AM
Duke can win it all, for the following reasons:

1) we have a strong mix between talent and experience. And some of that talent also has experience (Grayson, AJ, M Jones).

2) our young guys can only get better and will get better

3) we have Coach K

4) biiiiiiiig down year in college hoops. IMO, 15+ teams that a legimiate shot of winning the tourney.

sagegrouse
11-30-2015, 09:02 AM
Here's the "pro" case for Duke:

Three strong scorers in Grayson, Brandon and Luke -- Grayson and Luke being lights-out shooters and Grayson and Brandon being able to score from anywhere.
Good point guard play and "clutch" scoring from Derryck.
Versatile play and strong defense from Matt.
Savvy play, really good defense, and strong rebounding from Marshall and Amile. Some offense from Chase would be a huge plus.
The defense comes together in February and March.

Plus an observation: Most of the time Duke will have only one of Marshall and Amile on the court because of their offensive limitations. That's OK -- they can both average 25 minutes.

The "anti" case has two arguments:

Are you kidding me? This is a freshman-dominated team and last year's win, although not a fluke, had three extraordinary freshmen who had played together in international competition. Ain't gonna be a Final Four or an ACC championship.
The "pro" case has a series of reasonable but optimistic assumptions. Virtually all of them need to happen for Duke to compete and win at the highest levels. Not too likely.

This will be a fun team to watch because of the talent on the court, and -- maybe -- the team will mature into one of the best teams in the country.

Indoor66
11-30-2015, 09:15 AM
Here's the "pro" case for Duke:

Three strong scorers in Grayson, Brandon and Luke -- Grayson and Luke being lights-out shooters and Grayson and Brandon being able to score from anywhere.
Good point guard play and "clutch" scoring from Derryck.
Versatile play and strong defense from Matt.
Savvy play, really good defense, and strong rebounding from Marshall and Amile. Some offense from Chase would be a huge plus.
The defense comes together in February and March.

Plus an observation: Most of the time Duke will have only one of Marshall and Amile on the court because of their offensive limitations. That's OK -- they can both average 25 minutes.

The "anti" case has two arguments:

Are you kidding me? This is a freshman-dominated team and last year's win, although not a fluke, had three extraordinary freshmen who had played together in international competition. Ain't gonna be a Final Four or an ACC championship.
The "pro" case has a series of reasonable but optimistic assumptions. Virtually all of them need to happen for Duke to compete and win at the highest levels. Not too likely.

This will be a fun team to watch because of the talent on the court, and -- maybe -- the team will mature into one of the best teams in the country.

I wouldn't sleep on Amile's ability to score. He showed some of it Sunday, albeit against lesser competition. Amile did not become Philadelphia Schoolboy POY without excellent offensive skills. They are there - now they are being unleashed.

elvis14
11-30-2015, 09:38 AM
I've been thinking about this lately. I've watched all the games on TV (most more than once). I attended CTC and yesterday's Utah State game so I've seen them in person. I've read DBR a lot (too much). My Facebook feed is full of Duke pages (side note, really appreciate DBR even more once you start seeing other unmoderated public forums). So after being neck deep in Duke hoops for a while and thinking about this team I can confidently say that I have no freaking idea how far this team can go. I see some glimpses of great play and growth then I see us have to use a 1-3-1 to beat Yale. I see D.Thornton make great strides and steadily improve then I see him play horribly against Utah State (not bashing the kid, he had a really bad day, he'll be fine). Ingram is ? who the heck knows. These inconsistencies are to be expected from a young team but I can't really figure this team out yet. They might turn out to be great (that K guy knows a thing or two) but at the same time they could continue to be fairly clueless on defense and get beat by the good teams (see the UK game). I'm going to enjoy the ride either way but I don't have expectations because I have no idea what to expect yet.

fraggler
11-30-2015, 10:17 AM
Crazy stuff happens during the tourney, so really, any year Duke could take it. But there have been years where I thought we were at least a Sweet Sixteen team and we flamed out on the very first day of the tourney. Other years, as was pointed out about the Irving year, we had a possible title contender that ran into a Derrick Williams buzzsaw. And while I immensely enjoyed last year, I didn't think we had the look of a title team until we won it.

Based on what we have seen waaaay too early to really judge, I put us closer to the early exit teams than the deep run teams. I need to see us against better competition to not just evaluate our actual talent, but also our moxie. I love the positive projections for the team that a lot on this board have put out, but I need to see more before I jump on board. That said, this does seem to be a down year across the board in college basketball so we might be good enough to take the whole thing on a fluke kind of like UConn's last two titles.

Kedsy
11-30-2015, 10:27 AM
Unless we end up in the West Regional of the NCAA Tournament, the farthest Duke will go this season is to Coral Gables, Florida, 830 miles from Durham.

whereinthehellami
11-30-2015, 10:31 AM
Sort of a pointless thought game, IM(h)O, and not one I love. Here's my thoughts as to why...


I feel the same about it being a pointless exercise in futility but I love it because it is my favorite time of the year. Hopes and expectations dancing around my head like overweight sugar plum fairies drinking forties of milk stout and singing randy Christmas carols. With that said, i'm thinking it all comes down to match-ups. Teams with more athleticism or teams with more experience will give Duke fits and that will come into play around the sweet 16.

gumbomoop
11-30-2015, 10:31 AM
This will be a fun team to watch because of the talent on the court, and -- maybe -- the team will mature into one of the best teams in the country.

Three strong scorers in Grayson, Brandon and Luke -- Grayson and Luke being lights-out shooters and Grayson and Brandon being able to score from anywhere.


I'll guess sagegrouse's overall comment expresses an overwhelming consensus on EK right now: "fun, talent, maybe, mature, one of best."

I do think we should add Luke to sagegrouse's praise of Grayson and Brandon as guys who can "score from anywhere." Luke is 3-bomber, but also mid-range-step-back-pull-up shooter, and stutter-drive-amphibious-finisher-dime-dropper. Luke sees the floor, and the game.

I'll guess that as the season progresses, Derryck will be somewhat up-down, but our only PG. A logical question is: who initiates the offense (rather than who is the backup PG) when Derryck is on bench either resting or because not having good game? I'll guess Luke will gradually become more the initiator than Matt. Possibly all of Grayson, Brandon, and Luke will initiate themselves, as scorers from anywhere. Looks like we have plenty of scorers, including tricky Amile [get him the ball more, yes?], and might not need a consistently steady PG Thornton to put points up.

Duke can go deep, but only if D matures, some combo of pressure, m2m, and zone.

ETA: Indoor66 ^ on Amile, spot on.

Li_Duke
11-30-2015, 10:35 AM
It's too early to tell. If I was to put a 95% confidence limit on my guess, based on what we've seen so far, I would say we'll go anywhere from a 1st round exit to winning the national championship.

If I had to make a single guess? Round 32 exit.

Neals384
11-30-2015, 10:56 AM
Here's the "pro" case for Duke:

Three strong scorers in Grayson, Brandon and Luke -- Grayson and Luke being lights-out shooters and Grayson and Brandon being able to score from anywhere.
Good point guard play and "clutch" scoring from Derryck.
Versatile play and strong defense from Matt.
Savvy play, really good defense, and strong rebounding from Marshall and Amile. Some offense from Chase would be a huge plus.
The defense comes together in February and March.

Plus an observation: Most of the time Duke will have only one of Marshall and Amile on the court because of their offensive limitations. That's OK -- they can both average 25 minutes.

The "anti" case has two arguments:

Are you kidding me? This is a freshman-dominated team and last year's win, although not a fluke, had three extraordinary freshmen who had played together in international competition. Ain't gonna be a Final Four or an ACC championship.
The "pro" case has a series of reasonable but optimistic assumptions. Virtually all of them need to happen for Duke to compete and win at the highest levels. Not too likely.

This will be a fun team to watch because of the talent on the court, and -- maybe -- the team will mature into one of the best teams in the country.

Well, Amile and Plum have started every game. They have been on court at the same time for a total of 141 minutes out of 280 so far. Duke is +52 in those minutes vs. +55 with either or both on the bench.

sagegrouse
11-30-2015, 11:30 AM
Well, Amile and Plum have started every game. They have been on court at the same time for a total of 141 minutes out of 280 so far. Duke is +52 in those minutes vs. +55 with either or both on the bench.

Yep, and thanks for the data. I expect Brandon and Luke to become really strong offensive options and push the big guys for playing time.

Troublemaker
11-30-2015, 11:34 AM
Technically, even 16 seeds have a greater-than-zero chance of winning the national championship, even if that number is 0.0000001% or something like that. So, yes, Duke CAN win it all. We'll be among the ten teams with the best chances to win 6 games, and it'll come down to injuries, shooting luck, matchups, and playing well at the right time.



A logical question is: who initiates the offense (rather than who is the backup PG) when Derryck is on bench either resting or because not having good game? I'll guess Luke will gradually become more the initiator than Matt.

It'll probably still be Matt. I think of the "initiator" of the offense as the person up top who makes the first entry pass into our "sets." We would rather see Luke be on the wing curling in to receive the entry pass (a la Grayson) than the person who makes the entry pass. Likewise, when we're running "horns" (two bigs come to the elbows) to receive the entry pass, we would rather have Matt enter the ball to the bigs and have Luke be the wing that comes and receives the handoff from the big at the elbow, ready to attack.

In our sets this season, the wings are the attacking positions, which is where we want Grayson and Luke to be. The wings attack off curls and handoffs from bigs. The point up top merely makes the entry pass to initiate things, which is a suitable role for Matt when Derryck is not in the game.

Now, there will be certain opponents that play our sets so well and/or pressure the ball so well that we can't get into our sets. Kentucky and VCU were such opponents. Under those circumstances, we'll run more ball-screen offense or spread motion offense and then it makes sense for Matt to go off-the-ball and have attackers like Derryck, Grayson, Luke, and Brandon initiate.

COYS
11-30-2015, 12:26 PM
Here's the "pro" case for Duke:

[
The defense comes together in February and March.



Ultimately, I think this will be the deciding factor. Much has been made about how none of Brandon, Luke, or Derryck has been able to put together consistently good play on the offensive end. Matt struggles on offense when he has to initiate offensive sets. And Grayson, as amazing as he has been, is still not nearly as effective when he has to handle the ball. Despite all of that, Duke has been dominant on the offensive end, retaining the #1 mark on KenPom and increasing the difference between Duke and current #2, Miami. It is looking like yet another season when coach K puts together a top five offensive team with the potential to be number 1. Amile's offensive rebounding and Grayson and Matt's excellent outside shooting have helped compensate for the turnovers and inconsistent play from our other offensive threats. Matt and Grayson might come back down to earth a bit on their shooting, but I also expect Luke, Brandon, and Derryck to pick it up a little, even if they remain inconsistent. The UK game showed that long teams with NBA caliber athletes will give us trouble . . . but there aren't many of those hanging around. Plus, we gained valuable experience in that game and, in the event of a rematch, I bet our guys will acquit themselves better, win or lose.

Meanwhile, it the defense moved in the opposite KenPom direction up to the Utah State game. We've shown that we're capable of playing tight D in stretches, but we will have to become more consistent on that end. As Sage mentioned, the defense doesn't have to be perfect now. Last year's squad didn't become formidable on defense until very late in the year. However, I wouldn't mind seeing improved quality on D a bit earlier this year. Indiana's #9 ranked offense should be a good test for us. At the very least, we'll get to see if the Utah State was a sign of some improvement on that end, or a blip on what has been a (mildly) rocky start to the year on defense.

ChillinDuke
11-30-2015, 12:28 PM
Far.

- Chillin

CameronBlue
11-30-2015, 12:49 PM
I see some glimpses of great play and growth then I see us have to use a 1-3-1 to beat Yale.

Zounds! Be gone with this pejorative meme, this anti-zone invective!! The zone will set us free!

The zone was devised as a response to the new rules not to mask defensive weaknesses. With Amile out front it enables Duke to disrupt the passing lanes and apply pressure at the point which K loves. I think K is still experimenting with it and has not yet fully committed to it. I also think it's one reason we see Thornton coming off the bench during this early part of the season.

elvis14
11-30-2015, 01:19 PM
Zounds! Be gone with this pejorative meme, this anti-zone invective!! The zone will set us free!

The zone was devised as a response to the new rules not to mask defensive weaknesses. With Amile out front it enables Duke to disrupt the passing lanes and apply pressure at the point which K loves. I think K is still experimenting with it and has not yet fully committed to it. I also think it's one reason we see Thornton coming off the bench during this early part of the season.

I understand what you are saying here and I agree with you but I'm thinking that Coach K usually WANTS to play man as much as he can. So when we switch to a zone out of necessity (and the necessity isn't to protect someone because of fouls) against a team like Yale I see it as a bit of a red flag. If the new rules make us use the zone more then I'm all for it but there are some teams (like Utah State or Yale) for which the only reason we should HAVE to play zone is to work on it for when we need it against better teams.

JPtheGame
11-30-2015, 05:59 PM
Depends on the draw. If we play teams and are able to keep their guards out of the lane, we can beat anyone. If we run into some 4th year guard with no size but excellent handles or a Lehigh-type 2/3 that just keeps slashing at will......we could lose first weekend.

CameronBlue
12-02-2015, 10:34 AM
Zounds! Be gone with this pejorative meme, this anti-zone invective!! The zone will set us free!

The zone was devised as a response to the new rules not to mask defensive weaknesses. With Amile out front it enables Duke to disrupt the passing lanes and apply pressure at the point which K loves. I think K is still experimenting with it and has not yet fully committed to it. I also think it's one reason we see Thornton coming off the bench during this early part of the season.

HEY DBR!! What the HELL dude??!!:p

Skitzle
12-02-2015, 10:40 AM
Zounds! Be gone with this pejorative meme, this anti-zone invective!! The zone will set us free!

The zone was devised as a response to the new rules not to mask defensive weaknesses. With Amile out front it enables Duke to disrupt the passing lanes and apply pressure at the point which K loves. I think K is still experimenting with it and has not yet fully committed to it. I also think it's one reason we see Thornton coming off the bench during this early part of the season.

At this speed of adaptation, those who want a deeper rotation only need to wait until 2019 or so.

-jk
12-02-2015, 01:05 PM
HEY DBR!! What the HELL dude??!!:p

Chill... I've been doing my Dr. Krzyzewski or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Stall (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?20125-Dr-Krzyzewski-or-How-I-Learned-to-Stop-Worrying-and-Love-the-Stall) threads for years!

It's an old meme.

-jk

duke blue brewcrew
12-02-2015, 02:26 PM
Shouldn't this be labeled a basketball thread? :p

Indoor66
12-02-2015, 03:25 PM
Shouldn't this be labeled a basketball thread? :p

Especially in light of what has been going on over at the dump on the hump since dean's daze!

tux
12-02-2015, 04:37 PM
I'm not as optimistic as most of you. This team seems pretty fragile to me. By fragile I mean a big gap between playing poorly and playing well. It's hard for me to imagine them stringing together 3 wins (ACC) or 6 wins (NCAA) against good to great competition. But I agree that there are not any dominant teams this year, so I guess anything could happen.

I should add that I really enjoy watching this team play (in case the above comes across as overly negative...)