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Kedsy
11-24-2015, 05:41 PM
I saw in the Georgetown post-game thread that somebody was questioning how Grayson Allen, after torching Georgetown for 9 points and 3 assists in a three-and-a-half minute stretch early in the second half, then went on a prolonged stretch where he essentially did nothing. Some hypothesized that it was because Georgetown went into a zone around that time, and I'm sure that had something to do with it, but from my seat in the Garden, it seemed to me it was because Derryck Thornton came out of the game soon after Grayson's burst of goodness.

So I went back through all five of our games so far to see how Grayson and Derryck performed when they were on the floor together vs. how they fared when one was on the floor without the other. Far as I can tell, we have yet to play a minute when neither of them were on the court, even in garbage time. Here's the data:



GRAYSON min FGm FGa FG% 3m 3a 3% FTm FTa FT% assts to a/to DERRYCK min FGm FGa FG% 3m 3a 3% FTm FTa FT% assts to a/to assists to Grayson
ALONE ALONE
Siena 19 6 9 0.667 2 3 0.667 6 6 1.000 1 0 9 0 2 0.000 0 1 0.000 2 2 1.000 0 0
Bryant 13 2 7 0.286 0 3 0.000 3 4 0.750 3 2 8.5 2 2 1.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1
UK 11 0 6 0.000 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1 12 0 2 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 1 2
VCU 9 3 5 0.600 0 2 0.000 1 1 1.000 0 1 3.5 1 2 0.500 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0
Gtown 6 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 2 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1

ALONE TOTALS 58 11 27 0.407 2 9 0.222 10 11 0.909 4 4 35 3 8 0.375 0 1 0.000 2 2 1.000 1 4
ALONE per 40 7.59 18.62 0.407 1.38 6.21 0.222 6.90 7.59 0.909 2.76 2.76 1.00 3.43 9.14 0.375 0.00 1.14 0.000 2.29 2.29 1.000 1.14 4.57 0.25

TOGETHER TOGETHER
Siena 12 2 4 0.500 0 2 0.000 2 2 1.000 1 1 12 1 6 0.167 1 3 0.333 0 0 0.000 2 1 0
Bryant 18.5 6 11 0.545 3 4 0.750 6 6 1.000 3 0 18.5 0 7 0.000 0 2 0.000 0 0 0.000 4 0 1
UK 17 2 5 0.400 1 1 1.000 1 3 0.333 1 3 17 3 5 0.600 1 2 0.500 0 0 0.000 2 2 1
VCU 27.5 6 10 0.600 4 6 0.667 7 8 0.875 3 2 27.5 6 9 0.667 2 3 0.667 3 5 0.600 4 3 2
Gtown 32 9 12 0.750 5 6 0.833 9 9 1.000 4 2 32 3 6 0.500 0 1 0.000 8 10 0.800 2 1 2

TOGETHER TOTALS 107 25 42 0.595 13 19 0.684 25 28 0.893 12 8 107 13 33 0.394 4 11 0.364 11 15 0.733 14 7 6 (5 on threes)
TOGETHER per 40 9.35 15.70 0.595 4.86 7.10 0.684 9.35 10.47 0.893 4.49 2.99 1.50 4.86 12.34 0.394 1.50 4.11 0.364 4.11 5.61 0.733 5.23 2.62 2.00


The numbers, while almost certainly affected by low sample size and the myriad factors that make plus/minus a difficult stat to trust, are pretty compelling. Even more so since more than half of Grayson's "alone" minutes, and exactly half of Derryck's, came in our cupcake games. The tentative conclusion I draw is both players play WAY better when the other is on the court.

Look at Grayson's shooting percentages, for example, or Derryck's assists (1 in 35 minutes w/o Grayson and 14 in 107 mins w/ Grayson). Or any of the per 40 numbers. Anyway, it may not mean anything, but I thought I'd share it with the Board.

COYS
11-24-2015, 06:13 PM
I saw in the Georgetown post-game thread that somebody was questioning how Grayson Allen, after torching Georgetown for 9 points and 3 assists in a three-and-a-half minute stretch early in the second half, then went on a prolonged stretch where he essentially did nothing. Some hypothesized that it was because Georgetown went into a zone around that time, and I'm sure that had something to do with it, but from my seat in the Garden, it seemed to me it was because Derryck Thornton came out of the game soon after Grayson's burst of goodness.

So I went back through all five of our games so far to see how Grayson and Derryck performed when they were on the floor together vs. how they fared when one was on the floor without the other. Far as I can tell, we have yet to play a minute when neither of them were on the court, even in garbage time. Here's the data:



GRAYSON min FGm FGa FG% 3m 3a 3% FTm FTa FT% assts to a/to DERRYCK min FGm FGa FG% 3m 3a 3% FTm FTa FT% assts to a/to assists to Grayson
ALONE ALONE
Siena 19 6 9 0.667 2 3 0.667 6 6 1.000 1 0 9 0 2 0.000 0 1 0.000 2 2 1.000 0 0
Bryant 13 2 7 0.286 0 3 0.000 3 4 0.750 3 2 8.5 2 2 1.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1
UK 11 0 6 0.000 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1 12 0 2 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 1 2
VCU 9 3 5 0.600 0 2 0.000 1 1 1.000 0 1 3.5 1 2 0.500 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0
Gtown 6 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 2 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1

ALONE TOTALS 58 11 27 0.407 2 9 0.222 10 11 0.909 4 4 35 3 8 0.375 0 1 0.000 2 2 1.000 1 4
ALONE per 40 7.59 18.62 0.407 1.38 6.21 0.222 6.90 7.59 0.909 2.76 2.76 1.00 3.43 9.14 0.375 0.00 1.14 0.000 2.29 2.29 1.000 1.14 4.57 0.25

TOGETHER TOGETHER
Siena 12 2 4 0.500 0 2 0.000 2 2 1.000 1 1 12 1 6 0.167 1 3 0.333 0 0 0.000 2 1 0
Bryant 18.5 6 11 0.545 3 4 0.750 6 6 1.000 3 0 18.5 0 7 0.000 0 2 0.000 0 0 0.000 4 0 1
UK 17 2 5 0.400 1 1 1.000 1 3 0.333 1 3 17 3 5 0.600 1 2 0.500 0 0 0.000 2 2 1
VCU 27.5 6 10 0.600 4 6 0.667 7 8 0.875 3 2 27.5 6 9 0.667 2 3 0.667 3 5 0.600 4 3 2
Gtown 32 9 12 0.750 5 6 0.833 9 9 1.000 4 2 32 3 6 0.500 0 1 0.000 8 10 0.800 2 1 2

TOGETHER TOTALS 107 25 42 0.595 13 19 0.684 25 28 0.893 12 8 107 13 33 0.394 4 11 0.364 11 15 0.733 14 7 6 (5 on threes)
TOGETHER per 40 9.35 15.70 0.595 4.86 7.10 0.684 9.35 10.47 0.893 4.49 2.99 1.50 4.86 12.34 0.394 1.50 4.11 0.364 4.11 5.61 0.733 5.23 2.62 2.00


The numbers, while almost certainly affected by low sample size and the myriad factors that make plus/minus a difficult stat to trust, are pretty compelling. Even more so since more than half of Grayson's "alone" minutes, and exactly half of Derryck's, came in our cupcake games. The tentative conclusion I draw is both players play WAY better when the other is on the court.

Look at Grayson's shooting percentages, for example, or Derryck's assists (1 in 35 minutes w/o Grayson and 14 in 107 mins w/ Grayson). Or any of the per 40 numbers. Anyway, it may not mean anything, but I thought I'd share it with the Board.

Definitely something to keep an eye on. I wonder if Derryck's assists are up when they're on the court together because Grayson has been our primary shot maker. Passes to Luke and Brandon have hardly resulted in made baskets. Passes to Amile or Marshall for an assist are tougher without a floor spacer on the court like Grayson. Matt's really the only other guy who has been shooting well, but without Grayson in the game and with Brandon struggling, defenses can key in on Matt which reduces his effectiveness. This is all speculation, of course, but it is something to continue to watch.

JNort
11-24-2015, 06:25 PM
I saw in the Georgetown post-game thread that somebody was questioning how Grayson Allen, after torching Georgetown for 9 points and 3 assists in a three-and-a-half minute stretch early in the second half, then went on a prolonged stretch where he essentially did nothing. Some hypothesized that it was because Georgetown went into a zone around that time, and I'm sure that had something to do with it, but from my seat in the Garden, it seemed to me it was because Derryck Thornton came out of the game soon after Grayson's burst of goodness.

So I went back through all five of our games so far to see how Grayson and Derryck performed when they were on the floor together vs. how they fared when one was on the floor without the other. Far as I can tell, we have yet to play a minute when neither of them were on the court, even in garbage time. Here's the data:



GRAYSON min FGm FGa FG% 3m 3a 3% FTm FTa FT% assts to a/to DERRYCK min FGm FGa FG% 3m 3a 3% FTm FTa FT% assts to a/to assists to Grayson
ALONE ALONE
Siena 19 6 9 0.667 2 3 0.667 6 6 1.000 1 0 9 0 2 0.000 0 1 0.000 2 2 1.000 0 0
Bryant 13 2 7 0.286 0 3 0.000 3 4 0.750 3 2 8.5 2 2 1.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1
UK 11 0 6 0.000 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1 12 0 2 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 1 2
VCU 9 3 5 0.600 0 2 0.000 1 1 1.000 0 1 3.5 1 2 0.500 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0
Gtown 6 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 2 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 1

ALONE TOTALS 58 11 27 0.407 2 9 0.222 10 11 0.909 4 4 35 3 8 0.375 0 1 0.000 2 2 1.000 1 4
ALONE per 40 7.59 18.62 0.407 1.38 6.21 0.222 6.90 7.59 0.909 2.76 2.76 1.00 3.43 9.14 0.375 0.00 1.14 0.000 2.29 2.29 1.000 1.14 4.57 0.25

TOGETHER TOGETHER
Siena 12 2 4 0.500 0 2 0.000 2 2 1.000 1 1 12 1 6 0.167 1 3 0.333 0 0 0.000 2 1 0
Bryant 18.5 6 11 0.545 3 4 0.750 6 6 1.000 3 0 18.5 0 7 0.000 0 2 0.000 0 0 0.000 4 0 1
UK 17 2 5 0.400 1 1 1.000 1 3 0.333 1 3 17 3 5 0.600 1 2 0.500 0 0 0.000 2 2 1
VCU 27.5 6 10 0.600 4 6 0.667 7 8 0.875 3 2 27.5 6 9 0.667 2 3 0.667 3 5 0.600 4 3 2
Gtown 32 9 12 0.750 5 6 0.833 9 9 1.000 4 2 32 3 6 0.500 0 1 0.000 8 10 0.800 2 1 2

TOGETHER TOTALS 107 25 42 0.595 13 19 0.684 25 28 0.893 12 8 107 13 33 0.394 4 11 0.364 11 15 0.733 14 7 6 (5 on threes)
TOGETHER per 40 9.35 15.70 0.595 4.86 7.10 0.684 9.35 10.47 0.893 4.49 2.99 1.50 4.86 12.34 0.394 1.50 4.11 0.364 4.11 5.61 0.733 5.23 2.62 2.00


The numbers, while almost certainly affected by low sample size and the myriad factors that make plus/minus a difficult stat to trust, are pretty compelling. Even more so since more than half of Grayson's "alone" minutes, and exactly half of Derryck's, came in our cupcake games. The tentative conclusion I draw is both players play WAY better when the other is on the court.

Look at Grayson's shooting percentages, for example, or Derryck's assists (1 in 35 minutes w/o Grayson and 14 in 107 mins w/ Grayson). Or any of the per 40 numbers. Anyway, it may not mean anything, but I thought I'd share it with the Board.

Nice data it would be interesting of we could take all these sstats and tables and put them in the "Phase" threads so we can see the improvements and declines as the season goes.

As to this one I'd say the eye test definitely agrees with it. Seems Grayson plays better attacking off the ball and catching it in stride as he rolls to the hoop.

SilkyJ
11-24-2015, 07:21 PM
Interesting data, Kedsy. They appear to be our best two penetrators and most capable of getting their own shot--Brandon as well, but he hasn't done a great job of it to date. My sense is that its their ability to drive & create that allows them to play so well together. They draw multiple defenders, spread the floor and defenders can't help off them. Will be interesting to track this throughout the season.

Listen to Quants
11-24-2015, 10:15 PM
Interesting observation Kedsy. Kudos on noting this. A rigorous test of the hypothesis would involve *only* the data from here forward since it is not possible to state how much multiple hypothesis sifting occurred in origination of this (depends upon how gigantic Kedsy's brain is). probably a lot of hypotheses. :)

uh_no
11-24-2015, 11:04 PM
great writeup. it will certainly be interesting to watch going forward.

Hopefully kenpom puts his per-lineup stats back up like he had last year....

Kedsy
11-29-2015, 08:36 PM
The Yale box score is screwed up, and I can't tell exactly when Derryck played in the last 10 minutes of the first half. So I can't add that game to this observation.

As for Utah State this afternoon:

GRAYSON ALONE: 20 min; 3-10 (1-4 3pt); 2-2 FT; 2/0 a/to
GRAYSON TOGETHER: 9.5 min; 5-5 (1-1 3pt) 2-2 FT; 0/0 a/to

DERRYCK ALONE: 10.5 min; 1-4 (0-0 3pt) 0-2 FT; 0/1 a/to
DERRYCK TOGETHER: 9.5 min; 0-5 (0-1 3pt); 0-0 FT; 2/0 a/to

So, again, Derryck's assists are all when Grayson is on the floor (in this case, both assists were actually on baskets by Grayson); and Grayson shot much better when Derryck was on the floor (100% vs. 30% without Derryck).

If I can figure out the Yale situation, I'll update the grid, but for now, we can count Utah State as another data point in support of the theory that both players play significantly better when the other is on the floor.

Li_Duke
11-30-2015, 10:32 AM
The Yale box score is screwed up, and I can't tell exactly when Derryck played in the last 10 minutes of the first half. So I can't add that game to this observation.

As for Utah State this afternoon:

GRAYSON ALONE: 20 min; 3-10 (1-4 3pt); 2-2 FT; 2/0 a/to
GRAYSON TOGETHER: 9.5 min; 5-5 (1-1 3pt) 2-2 FT; 0/0 a/to

DERRYCK ALONE: 10.5 min; 1-4 (0-0 3pt) 0-2 FT; 0/1 a/to
DERRYCK TOGETHER: 9.5 min; 0-5 (0-1 3pt); 0-0 FT; 2/0 a/to

So, again, Derryck's assists are all when Grayson is on the floor (in this case, both assists were actually on baskets by Grayson); and Grayson shot much better when Derryck was on the floor (100% vs. 30% without Derryck).

If I can figure out the Yale situation, I'll update the grid, but for now, we can count Utah State as another data point in support of the theory that both players play significantly better when the other is on the floor.


I'm not sure you can count this as a data point that BOTH players play SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER when the other is on the floor. Grayson - yes; Derryck - terrible either way.

kAzE
11-30-2015, 10:54 AM
Nice post! I did notice very distinctly in the Yale game how it seemed like our offense went into neutral when Derryck was off the floor. It's very similar to the rough situation that Wichita State finds itself in now with the injury to Fred Van Vleet. With Ron Baker moving to point guard (essentially what Grayson does when Derryck is on the bench), they not only lose their best point guard, they also lose their best shooting guard. When you're used to moving with out the ball and hunting your shot, it's very difficult to try to transition to a role where you're handling the ball much more. Grayson is a decent ball handler, but his creativity is not the best. He can break someone down on the fast break, but in the half court, he uses screens, a quick first step, and athleticism to get by his defender rather than his dribbling. Derryck's development as a perimeter threat also helps Grayson out in terms of spacing.

HOWEVER. With the emergence of Luke, who is a little more of a natural ball handler than Grayson in my opinion, I think Grayson gets freed up a bit more to do his thing, which is flare to the high post, quick inside cuts, and spotting up for jumpers. He is at his best when he can catch the ball and attack. If defenses begin to respect Luke a bit more on the perimeter (he's on everybody's scouting report now after the Utah St game), it's just going to create more space and more driving/cutting lanes for everyone. I think Luke also has some room to grow as a distributor. He gets into the paint very easily using his crafty dribbling and shot fakes, so a dump off or kick out to an open teammate should be the next thing he tries to perfect once he gets his scoring going.

So in the end, I think Luke will gradually get more responsibility handling the ball. Matt Jones has struggled a bit as a point guard (7 turnovers over the last 4 games), and I would expect the majority of the point guard duties to be handled by Derryck and Luke as the season progresses, which will benefit Matt and Grayson as primarily scorers.

Kedsy
11-30-2015, 10:58 AM
I'm not sure you can count this as a data point that BOTH players play SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER when the other is on the floor. Grayson - yes; Derryck - terrible either way.

Perhaps. He certainly shot poorly either way. I would note that Derryck had 8.4 assists per 40 and no turnovers while he and Grayson were both on the floor (and had no assists and 3.8 turnovers per 40 minutes while on the floor without Grayson). For a point guard, one could argue that's significantly better, especially if you add it to the earlier data points (14 assists and 7 turnovers in our first five games with Grayson and 1 assist and 4 turnovers in our first five games without Grayson).

uh_no
11-30-2015, 11:47 AM
Perhaps. He certainly shot poorly either way. I would note that Derryck had 8.4 assists per 40 and no turnovers while he and Grayson were both on the floor (and had no assists and 3.8 turnovers per 40 minutes while on the floor without Grayson). For a point guard, one could argue that's significantly better, especially if you add it to the earlier data points (14 assists and 7 turnovers in our first five games with Grayson and 1 assist and 4 turnovers in our first five games without Grayson).

I think this is probably bigger than any of the other stats posted. It's something I'll have to keep a much closer eye on on wednesday.