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Oriole Way
11-21-2015, 07:07 PM
After watching Duke through 4 games, it's clear we have a talented, but young, team. There will be growing pains, but we have a good mix of upperclassman experience (Jefferson, Plumlee, and Jones), a potential star (Allen), and a talented freshman class with future impact players (Ingram, Thornton, Kennard, Jeter) who have taken turns struggling with different facets of the game, as well as showing glimpses of skill and potential. I like this team's chances of making the Final Four if the players can develop and stay healthy.

The most intriguing thing to me about this team at the moment is determining a starting lineup from game to game. I think we'll see changing lineups throughout the year based on matchups, hot and cold players, and (but hopefully not) injuries. I'd like to offer up a case for our best current starting lineup being one which brings Brandon Ingram off the bench as the 6th man for the next few games: Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee.

I think one of the few takeaways from the Kentucky loss is that this Duke team is going to need a true point guard to run the show. That player is obviously Derryck Thornton, and Coach K quickly inserted Thornton into the starting lineup immediately following the first loss of the young season. The move paid off, and Duke's ceiling this year is directly tied to how quickly and effectively Thornton becomes Coach K's extension on the floor. But one of the issues with this team, which is ultimately a good thing, is that we have 6 players that all make convincing cases to be starters. Allen came off the bench against VCU and had a career game in terms of scoring. But moving forward, I feel Brandon Ingram should come off the bench for the foreseeable future.

Ingram has been horribly inefficient over 4 games. He's shooting under 40% from the field, under 30% from 3, and under 60% on free throws. Negative assist to turnover ratio. Averaging 2.5 fouls per 24 minutes which is fairly high. Allen got benched for one bad game and rebounded. But Grayson has been sensational in his other games. He rebounded from the worst performance of his career with one of his best. Ingram had a particularly poor game against Kentucky in which he was plagued by foul trouble. But unlike Grayson, Brandon's level of performance in the other 3 games has been mediocre at best.

Some people might claim that Allen is better suited to coming off the bench. They might look at him as a scoring sparkplug 6th man. But I strongly disagree. I believe that Allen is going to be a national player of the year candidate. He puts pressure on defenses and gets opposing defenders in foul trouble because he has such a great first step off the dribble. He has a great shooting stroke, an excellent ability to drive to the rim, and a developing mid-range game. He needs to start. Right now, he's our best player.

Our upperclassmen have played extremely well and, for the moment, deserve to continue starting. Matt Jones has played exceptionally well thus far, and he's too good of a defender to send him to the bench right now or any time soon. It also helps his case that he has Coach K's total trust. Amile Jefferson is playing and rebounding too well to be benched, and both he and Marshall Plumlee fill out the traditional PF and C spots well. They are seasoned vets in great physical condition. They provide exceptional rebounding in the post and consistently solid post defense, aspects no one else on the team has provided thus far. Ingram, meanwhile, is still skinny, still getting used to the extra weight he put on this summer, and yet to fully catch up to the speed of the college game. He should be the odd man out of the starting lineup. If Thornton started out on the bench for the first 3 games of the season based on his uneven play during the preseason, and if Allen got benched for a poor game against Kentucky, then it's only logical and fair for Ingram to come off the bench for a few games to work on his issues following a poor 4 games to start the season.

Ingram is likely a few weeks or longer from getting up to speed and having the light come on for him. I'd love to see him breakout against Georgetown, but it's not an easy matchup for him or for Duke in general. Starting spots must be earned, and Ingram doesn't deserve it right now. I'll be interested to see if Coach K makes a move with him any time soon if he continues to struggle.

Devilwin
11-21-2015, 07:10 PM
After watching Duke through 4 games, it's clear we have a talented, but young, team. There will be growing pains, but we have a good mix of upperclassman experience (Jefferson, Plumlee, and Jones), a potential star (Allen), and a talented freshman class with future impact players (Ingram, Thornton, Kennard, Jeter) who have taken turns struggling with different facets of the game, as well as showing glimpses of skill and potential. I like this team's chances of making the Final Four if the players can develop and stay healthy.

The most intriguing thing to me about this team at the moment is determining a starting lineup from game to game. I think we'll see changing lineups throughout the year based on matchups, hot and cold players, and (but hopefully not) injuries. I'd like to offer up a case for our best current starting lineup being one which brings Brandon Ingram off the bench as the 6th man for the next few games: Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee.

I think one of the few takeaways from the Kentucky loss is that this Duke team is going to need a true point guard to run the show. That player is obviously Derryck Thornton, and Coach K quickly inserted Thornton into the starting lineup immediately following the first loss of the young season. The move paid off, and Duke's ceiling this year is directly tied to how quickly and effectively Thornton becomes Coach K's extension on the floor. But one of the issues with this team, which is ultimately a good thing, is that we have 6 players that all make convincing cases to be starters. Allen came off the bench against VCU and had a career game in terms of scoring. But moving forward, I feel Brandon Ingram should come off the bench for the foreseeable future.

Ingram has been horribly inefficient over 4 games. He's shooting under 40% from the field, under 30% from 3, and under 60% on free throws. Negative assist to turnover ratio. Averaging 2.5 fouls per 24 minutes which is fairly high. Allen got benched for one bad game and rebounded. But Grayson has been sensational in his other games. He rebounded with the worst performance of his career with one of his best. Ingram had a particularly poor game against Kentucky in which he has been plagued by foul trouble. But unlike Grayson, Brandon's level of performance in the other 3 games has been mediocre at best.

Some people might claim that Allen is better suited to coming off the bench. They might look at him as a scoring sparkplug 6th man. But I strongly disagree. I believe that Allen is going to be a national player of the year candidate. He puts pressure on defenses and gets opposing defenders in foul trouble because he has such a great first step off the dribble. He has a great shooting stroke, an excellent ability to drive to the rim, and a developing mid-range game. He needs to start. Right now, he's our best player.

Our upperclassmen have played extremely well and, for the moment, deserve to continue starting. Matt Jones has played exceptionally well thus far, and he's too good of a defender to send him to the bench right now or any time soon. It also helps his case that he has Coach K's total trust. Amile Jefferson is playing and rebounding too well to be benched, and both he and Marshall Plumlee fill out the traditional PF and C spots well. They are seasoned vets in great physical condition. They provide exceptional rebounding in the post and consistently solid post defense, aspects no one else on the team has provided thus far. Ingram, meanwhile, is still skinny, still getting used to the extra weight he put on this summer, and yet to fully catch up to the speed of the college game. He should be the odd man out of the starting lineup. If Thornton started out on the bench for the first 3 games of the season based on his uneven play during the preseason, and if Allen got benched for a poor game against Kentucky, then it's only logical and fair for Ingram to come off the bench for a few games to work on his issues following a poor 4 games to start the season.

Ingram is likely a few weeks or longer from getting up to speed and having the light come on for him. I'd love to see him breakout against Georgetown, but it's not an easy matchup for him or for Duke in general. Starting spots must be earned, and Ingram doesn't deserve it right now. I'll be interested to see if Coach K makes a move with him any time soon if he continues to struggle.

Excellent take. Ingram will be a great one eventually, but has been very unimpressive so far.

vick
11-21-2015, 07:26 PM
Some people might claim that Allen is better suited to coming off the bench. They might look at him as a scoring sparkplug 6th man. But I strongly disagree. I believe that Allen is going to be a national player of the year candidate. He puts pressure on defenses and gets opposing defenders in foul trouble because he has such a great first step off the dribble. He has a great shooting stroke, an excellent ability to drive to the rim, and a developing mid-range game. He needs to start.

Allen played 37 minutes. Who cares whether he started or didn't?

DeBlueDevil
11-21-2015, 07:34 PM
Way too early. Keep in mind this is the first time any of these freshman have experienced this high level of play. K has started him for a reason. All of your points are very valid, but let's give the kid a little more than 4 games (1 of which against arguably the best team in the country) to figure it out. Brandon is by far not the only person on this team that hasn't been playing well. It's early. Be patient and let things play out. K will do exactly what needs to be done. For now, enjoy the ride.

Oriole Way
11-21-2015, 07:42 PM
Way too early. Keep in mind this is the first time any of these freshman have experienced this high level of play. K has started him for a reason. All of your points are very valid, but let's give the kid a little more than 4 games (1 of which against arguably the best team in the country) to figure it out. Brandon is by far not the only person on this team that hasn't been playing well. It's early. Be patient and let things play out. K will do exactly what needs to be done. For now, enjoy the ride.

If that's what you believe, then why didn't that line of thinking apply to Grayson Allen? Why was he benched after one bad game? He's a sophomore with experience and the two highest scoring games to start a season by any Duke player since Johnny Dawkins. Why didn't he get a little more time than 3 games to figure it out? Why was it not "way too early" to have him come off the bench? Are you suggesting that Ingram deserves a pass because he's a freshman and talented, but Allen does not because he's not a freshman, and/or he's not as talented? Does Ingram somehow have more margin for error because of his size or skillset? Honest questions for you.

And by the way, I'm going to continue talking about it because I find it interesting. I enjoy discussing the team with fellow Duke fans. That's the primary purpose of this message board. So please excuse me when I decline to be patient and take it easy, and just assume Coach K will take care of it. I'm sure he will, but I'm still going to engage in a discussion about the team and what interests me about Duke basketball. This is exactly how I enjoy the ride. Please respect the fact I "enjoy the ride" differently than you do.

Troublemaker
11-21-2015, 07:47 PM
It's possible. I can also see Coach just repeating the VCU starting lineup and then re-evaluating things after this weekend if Ingram struggles again vs Georgetown.


Allen played 37 minutes. Who cares whether he started or didn't?

Also this.

duke09hms
11-21-2015, 07:48 PM
If that's what you believe, then why didn't that line of thinking apply to Grayson Allen? Why was he benched after one bad game? He's a sophomore with experience and the two highest scoring games to start a season by any Duke player since Johnny Dawkins. Why didn't he get a little more time than 3 games to figure it out? Why was it not "way too early" to have him come off the bench? Are you suggesting that Ingram deserves a pass because he's a freshman and talented, but Allen does not because he's not a freshman, and/or he's not as talented? Does Ingram somehow have more margin for error because of his size or skillset? Honest questions for you.

You're placing too much importance on "starting." When you play 90+% of the game, who cares if you start or come off the bench? It's not like Ingram is averaging 38 mpg and playing poorly. Psychologically maybe Ingram might lose confidence if he's benched whereas Grayson knows he has the cred of destroying Wisconsin in the championship game and not be bothered by coming off the bench.

I think Ingram should get as much time as he can handle to acclimate to the college game. Him and Kennard seems like players who need the game to slow JUST A LITTLE bit before they start dominating. All the signs are there.

jv001
11-21-2015, 07:48 PM
I agree with your assessment of Ingram, but I don't know if benching him this early is the answer. I know K didn't start Grayson but I believe he knew Grayson would accept the challenge, plus Grayson came off the bench last year and did well late in the season. I think Ingram's problem is more of a confidence one. Especially in his shooting. Coach K has said that the young guys tie their game to how they are playing on offense. I was glad to see Kennard play a good floor game despite his continued cold shooting. He seems to get it. Just my take. GoDuke!

YmoBeThere
11-21-2015, 07:49 PM
If that's what you believe, then why didn't that line of thinking apply to Grayson Allen? Why was he benched after one bad game? He's a sophomore with experience and the two highest scoring games to start a season by any Duke player since Johnny Dawkins. Why didn't he get a little more time than 3 games to figure it out? Why was it not "way too early" to have him come off the bench? Are you suggesting that Ingram deserves a pass because he's a freshman and talented, but Allen does not because he's not a freshman, and/or he's not as talented? Does Ingram somehow have more margin for error because of his size or skillset? Honest questions for you.

And by the way, I'm going to continue talking about it because I find it interesting. I enjoy discussing the team with fellow Duke fans. That's the primary purpose of this message board. So please excuse me when I decline to be patient and take it easy, and just assume Coach K will take care of it. I'm sure he will, but I'm still going to engage in a discussion about the team and what interests me about Duke basketball. This is exactly how I enjoy the ride. Please respect the fact I "enjoy the ride" differently than you do.

Because much of Grayson's issues that game were self-induced. He forced many plays he shouldn't have. I haven't seen this as a big issue with Ingram so far. IMHO, Grayson loves the coast to coast 1 man play too much.

Oriole Way
11-21-2015, 07:50 PM
It's possible. I can also see Coach just repeating the VCU starting lineup and then re-evaluating things after this weekend if Ingram struggles again vs Georgetown.

Agreed, I think we see the same starting lineup tomorrow. But I'll be paying close attention to Ingram.

Honestly, it's a good problem to have. 6 guys playing well enough or talented enough to start.

wallyman
11-21-2015, 07:51 PM
If that's what you believe, then why didn't that line of thinking apply to Grayson Allen? Why was he benched after one bad game? He's a sophomore with experience and the two highest scoring games to start a season by any Duke player since Johnny Dawkins. Why didn't he get a little more time than 3 games to figure it out? Why was it not "way too early" to have him come off the bench? Are you suggesting that Ingram deserves a pass because he's a freshman and talented, but Allen does not because he's not a freshman, and/or he's not as talented? Does Ingram somehow have more margin for error because of his size or skillset? Honest questions for you.

No one's being "benched." Seven guys, at least, play. Was MP3 "benched" because his minutes went way down Friday? Ingram may or may not start because only 5 of the 7 can. But Allen was our most important player despite not starting Friday and we'll need major minutes from Ingram whether or not he's one of the five on the floor when the game begins.

DeBlueDevil
11-21-2015, 07:58 PM
If that's what you believe, then why didn't that line of thinking apply to Grayson Allen? Why was he benched after one bad game? He's a sophomore with experience and the two highest scoring games to start a season by any Duke player since Johnny Dawkins. Why didn't he get a little more time than 3 games to figure it out? Why was it not "way too early" to have him come off the bench? Are you suggesting that Ingram deserves a pass because he's a freshman and talented, but Allen does not because he's not a freshman, and/or he's not as talented? Does Ingram somehow have more margin for error because of his size or skillset? Honest questions for you.

And by the way, I'm going to continue talking about it because I find it interesting. I enjoy discussing the team with fellow Duke fans. That's the primary purpose of this message board. So please excuse me when I decline to be patient and take it easy, and just assume Coach K will take care of it. I'm sure he will, but I'm still going to engage in a discussion about the team and what interests me about Duke basketball. This is exactly how I enjoy the ride. Please respect the fact I "enjoy the ride" differently than you do.

Woah woah. Relax. I wasn't suggesting that you're wrong in your stance by any means. I am not suggesting Brandon deserves a pass at all more than any other player on this team. My response is just in the rationale that it's is very early. My response would've been the same for Grayson as well and I would've said K will do what needs to be done. In Grayson's case, K felt he served better coming off the bench.

I think many place way too much importance in starting and look at Grayson's not starting as a punishment. Having played basketball, there's some players whom actually prefer the 6th man role. Some players play well starting and others enjoy coming off the bench. Most just do what needs to be done to win. Manu Ginobli has spent years in a six man role, does that mean he's in the dog house or isn't good enough to start?

Grayson, had one bad game against a top 5 team. I fully expect him to bounce back as he already did scoring 30 off the bench. As I said before, all of your points are valid, I just feel a thread such as "benching Brandon Ingram" let alone ANY player on the roster is a bit much at this point given none of us have any clue how this team is going to come together. Again, not a discouraging debate but you have your opinion and I have mine. Don't get so defensive.

Oriole Way
11-21-2015, 08:06 PM
You're placing too much importance on "starting." When you play 90+% of the game, who cares if you start or come off the bench? It's not like Ingram is averaging 38 mpg and playing poorly. Psychologically maybe Ingram might lose confidence if he's benched whereas Grayson knows he has the cred of destroying Wisconsin in the championship game and not be bothered by coming off the bench.

I think Ingram should get as much time as he can handle to acclimate to the college game. Him and Kennard seems like players who need the game to slow JUST A LITTLE bit before they start dominating. All the signs are there.

You make a very good point about Allen being more capable of flourishing in a bench role right away, since he's already shown the ability to do so. But on the flip side, if Ingram is going to have his confidence hurt by being demoted to the bench to the point it's detrimental to his development, he doesn't deserve to start anyway.

I think Thornton is going to be a special player, and he's more vital to Duke's success than Ingram (although of course, both players are going to be vital). The reason is that Duke sorely needs a point guard. If Thornton could handle coming off the bench while working on some of his game, so can Ingram. He's too talented not to be effective off the bench.

The thing I might be overlooking here is whether promises were made to Ingram and his family about playing time and starting. I don't think that's ever really been Coach K's style, so I'm assuming that's not the case, but I'm willing to accept it's a possibility. That scenario would make my case for benching him moot.

Either way, I don't buy the "who cares if you're starting if you're playing most of the game" argument. Players like Allen should start. The guys who get big minutes as 6th men, to use the NBA as an example, are usually undersized, excellent shooters, and/or poor defenders (i.e. NBA 6th Man of the Year players such as Jamal Crawford, Jason Terry, Lou Williams, Ben Gordon, J.R. Smith, Leandro Barbosa). Almost never does an NBA team bring their best player off the bench. My contention is that Allen is currently Duke's best player. He should play heavy minutes as a starter because, bottom line, I believe that makes Duke the best team it can be. You should start your best 5 unless you have an undersized or one-dimensional scoring sparkplug, or a rare exception like Manu Ginobili who excelled coming off the bench and preferred it, despite clearly being one of his team's best 2 or 3 players. Allen is not that kind of player. He shouldn't be a 6th man.

DeBlueDevil
11-21-2015, 08:11 PM
You make a very good point about Allen being more capable of flourishing in a bench role right away, since he's already shown the ability to do so. But on the flip side, if Ingram is going to have his confidence hurt by being demoted to the bench to the point it's detrimental to his development, he doesn't deserve to start anyway.

I think Thornton is going to be a special player, and he's more vital to Duke's success than Ingram (although of course, both players are going to be vital). The reason is that Duke sorely needs a point guard. If Thornton could handle coming off the bench while working on some of his game, so can Ingram. He's too talented not to be effective off the bench.

The thing I might be overlooking here is whether promises were made to Ingram and his family about playing time and starting. I don't think that's ever really been Coach K's style, so I'm assuming that's not the case, but I'm willing to accept it's a possibility. That scenario would make my case for benching him moot.

Either way, I don't buy the "who cares if you're starting if you're playing most of the game" argument. Players like Allen start. The guys who get big minutes as 6th men, to use the NBA as an example, are usually undersized, excellent shooters, and/or poor defenders (i.e. NBA 6th Man of the Year players such as Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, Ben Gordon, J.R. Smith, Leandro Barbosa). Almost never does an NBA team bring their best player off the bench. My contention is that Allen is currently Duke's best player. He should play heavy minutes as a starter because, bottom line, I believe that makes Duke the best team it can be. You should start your best 5 unless you have an undersized or one-dimensional scoring sparkplug, or a rare exception like Manu Ginobuli who excelled coming off the bench and preferred it, despite clearly being one of his team's best 2 or 3 players. Allen is not that kind of player. He shouldn't be a 6th man.

Well put. The only thing I can think of is there's at least 1 HOF coach that disagrees with you.

Clearly you're more qualified to make that judgement than him.

Oriole Way
11-21-2015, 08:18 PM
Well put. The only thing I can think of is there's at least 1 HOF coach that disagrees with you.

Clearly you're more qualified to make that judgement than him.

Gotcha. None of us is Coach K so we shouldn't share our opinions about basketball or speculate about the future. I'm not smarter than him. Noted. Thanks so much for pointing that out to me.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-21-2015, 08:25 PM
Gotcha. None of us is Coach K so we shouldn't share our opinions about basketball or speculate about the future. I'm not smarter than him. Noted. Thanks so much for pointing that out to me.

Apologies if I am mistaken, but didn't you call for a talented young Quinn Cook to get more playing time to get more game experience early in his career when he was looking unwieldy and overmatched?

Ingram is widely acknowledged as one of the most talented young men in America. It's a thin line between building a young man's confidence, and putting him on the sidelines to watch and learn. This team is extremely young, and without some freshmen stepping up will be in a tough way come March. Grayson is a veteran by this team's standards and was forcing things too much against Kentucky.

I know that K's not above reproach, but I do believe that if you take a kid like Ingram and relegate him to the bench after four games, you risk damaging his psyche. I do trust K far more than myself (or you, no offense) to read the players in practice and determine who's game ready and who needs to sit for a bit.

Pghdukie
11-21-2015, 08:26 PM
Big difference in playing in the Hi-School gym in front of 200 family and friends as compared to United Center and Madison Square Garden. Lets give the freshman a few more games to accumulate themselves to the pace of play as well as the magnitude.

DeBlueDevil
11-21-2015, 08:28 PM
Gotcha. None of us is Coach K so we shouldn't share our opinions about basketball or speculate about the future. I'm not smarter than him. Noted. Thanks so much for pointing that out to me.

Not trying to frustrate you friend. I'm not questioning your stance. I just hate to see you so bothered over something this early in the season. K has tested many great Duke players over the years. I imagine this is more of the same.

You seem highly disappointed about Grayson not starting last game. With statements like "Grayson isn't a 6th man role player". Well, I'm sorry but who died and made Grayson J.J. Redick or Shane Battier. You insinuated that I said Brandon deserved a pass, well why does Grayson deserve one? Because he's a year older? Because he's had a few good games. How do you know Brandon isn't out performing everyone in practice? How do you know K doesn't feel Brandon is the best player on this team? Oh right, K promised his parents during recruitment. Let's start that speculation.

All I'm saying is I'm all for basketball discussion about this awesome Duke squad but some of your points while valid, in my opinion deserve a very basic response such as the one I gave.

-jk
11-21-2015, 08:28 PM
Take it easy, folks...

-jk

cptnflash
11-21-2015, 08:33 PM
Completely agree that based on what we've seen so far, the starting / most minutes lineup should be Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee, unless matchups dictate otherwise. So far, Ingram has been reminiscent of Austin Rivers - lots of hype, high usage, low efficiency on offense, and limited intensity on defense. Like everyone, I hope he improves, but so far he's not one of our best 5 players and I'd like to see him come off the bench.

Oriole Way
11-21-2015, 08:34 PM
Apologies if I am mistaken, but didn't you call for a talented young Quinn Cook to get more playing time to get more game experience early in his career when he was looking unwieldy and overmatched?

Ingram is widely acknowledged as one of the most talented young men in America. It's a thin line between building a young man's confidence, and putting him on the sidelines to watch and learn. This team is extremely young, and without some freshmen stepping up will be in a tough way come March. Grayson is a veteran by this team's standards and was forcing things too much against Kentucky.

I know that K's not above reproach, but I do believe that if you take a kid like Ingram and relegate him to the bench after four games, you risk damaging his psyche. I do trust K far more than myself (or you, no offense) to read the players in practice and determine who's game ready and who needs to sit for a bit.

Indeed I did. That was a different situation, though. I wanted more playing time for a young player who possessed a skillset that Duke team was lacking. With Ingram, I want him to come off the bench for a few games. I don't want him playing any fewer minutes. And I still believe he's going to be one of our best two players. I just think he should be getting his 25+ minutes per game off the bench for a few games and see how he responds. Believing that doesn't mean I think I know any better than Coach K does. I know that you know that, but there's always been a contingent on this board that jumps all over people with that kind of criticism. It's frustrating, and that attitude is antithetical to the spirit and purpose of this board.

cptnflash
11-21-2015, 08:36 PM
I should add that so far, Coach K appears to agree, as Ingram has played fewer minutes than Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee. So it's really just a matter of who starts.

DeBlueDevil
11-21-2015, 08:36 PM
Completely agree that based on what we've seen so far, the starting / most minutes lineup should be Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee, unless matchups dictate otherwise. So far, Ingram has been reminiscent of Austin Rivers - lots of hype, high usage, low efficiency on offense, and limited intensity on defense. Like everyone, I hope he improves, but so far he's not one of our best 5 players and I'd like to see him come off the bench.

Fair enough, I respectfully disagree and feel 4 games is a bit early to make a call on ANY of these kids just yet. I'm willing to let things play out a little longer before making that call.

DeBlueDevil
11-21-2015, 08:40 PM
Indeed I did. That was a different situation, though. I wanted more playing time for a young player who possessed a skillset that Duke team was lacking. With Ingram, I want him to come off the bench for a few games. I don't want him playing any fewer minutes. And I still believe he's going to be one of our best two players. I just think he should be getting his 25+ minutes per game off the bench for a few games and see how he responds. Believing that doesn't mean I think I know any better than Coach K does. I know that you know that, but there's always been a contingent on this board that jumps all over people with that kind of criticism. It's frustrating, and that attitude is antithetical to the spirit and purpose of this board.

No one was jumping on you or discouraging your debate friend. My only disagreement was titling a thread "Benching Brandon Ingram" or ANY player at this point in a young season is a bit much is all. Otherwise, you're free to your side and I more than respect that.

Bluedevil114
11-21-2015, 09:00 PM
Fair enough, I respectfully disagree and feel 4 games is a bit early to make a call on ANY of these kids just yet. I'm willing to let things play out a little longer before making that call.

I just hope in the closing minutes of a tight game that we lead that Ingram and Jefferson are not in position to get fouled and have to shoot free throws. That is when Ingram should be benched like Jah. When you have proven over four games that you are not a consistent free throw shooter. Duke should have won that game by 12.

wsb3
11-21-2015, 09:04 PM
Indeed I did. That was a different situation, though. I wanted more playing time for a young player who possessed a skillset that Duke team was lacking. With Ingram, I want him to come off the bench for a few games. I don't want him playing any fewer minutes. And I still believe he's going to be one of our best two players. I just think he should be getting his 25+ minutes per game off the bench for a few games and see how he responds. Believing that doesn't mean I think I know any better than Coach K does. I know that you know that, but there's always been a contingent on this board that jumps all over people with that kind of criticism. It's frustrating, and that attitude is antithetical to the spirit and purpose of this board.

In marriage & on this board I think it better to stay with the discussion at hand. Situations are different as Oriole Way stated. I think I know one thing & that is we all hope Ingram is one of our two best players & lives up to the hype. I thought we moved into contention for the NC when he signed. I think it also helps that I don't think we will see a super team anywhere this year & could truly be one of those years where there may be twenty teams that can win it all.

I may have missed this but it seems no one had a problem with Kennard staying in the lineup despite not shooting well at all, while some of us myself included probably wanted to see Ingram come out the game last night. For me the answer is simple.. Kennard played with great energy the entire time & I am not seeing that with Ingram...yet. The play last night when possessions were crucial & he passively reached for the ball instead of just grabbing it really disturbed me. I don't care who you are I want to see you play hard. We all know Jefferson & Plumlee are not making any all-american teams but don't we love them because they play with everything they have?

As far as Grayson is concerned I don't read much into his not starting. We have all seen Coach K many times do this to get a message across. He started the second half if I remember correctly. I expect he will start tomorrow. Not much question at this point that he is our best player.

Coach K certainly knows the personalities of his players better than me. Who did not expect Thornton to be running the point this year but Coach K felt a need to ease him into the starting lineup. Maybe Ingram has lost some confidence & benching him may knock him back to much. Coach K is better suited to make these decisions than all of us but at the same time if there is anyone here that has never questioned some of his decisions raise your hand. My hand is not raised. I am pretty sure Coach K would not tell you he has always had the right answer for each situation. No one does. Not even him. Please don't throw anything at me. I love Coach K.. Very grateful that he came here, stayed here, & as a Duke fan since the days of Jeff Mullins, Jack Marin, & Bob Verga helped this big kid see some dreams come true.

Saturday night & we are having this discussion..We do not lack passion do we?

weezie
11-21-2015, 09:04 PM
Wow.

This is a ridiculous thread. :mad:

MChambers
11-21-2015, 09:09 PM
Wow.

This is a ridiculous thread.

+1

Total waste of time.

DeBlueDevil
11-21-2015, 09:26 PM
+1

Total waste of time.

+2. I regret even responding to the initial post and attempting to calm the storm.

duke09hms
11-21-2015, 09:37 PM
Eh I think it's engendered some good discussion. Would like to change the thread title to "Brandon Ingram" though. Mods?

Indoor66
11-21-2015, 09:42 PM
Mines bigger than yours. Now, back to basketball please.

NYBri
11-21-2015, 10:03 PM
Completely agree that based on what we've seen so far, the starting / most minutes lineup should be Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee, unless matchups dictate otherwise. So far, Ingram has been reminiscent of Austin Rivers - lots of hype, high usage, low efficiency on offense, and limited intensity on defense. Like everyone, I hope he improves, but so far he's not one of our best 5 players and I'd like to see him come off the bench.

If Ingram doesn't score another point in his career except a game wining dagger at the buzzer in CH, I'll take it.

:cool:

Neals384
11-21-2015, 10:29 PM
I may have missed this but it seems no one had a problem with Kennard staying in the lineup despite not shooting well at all, while some of us myself included probably wanted to see Ingram come out the game last night. For me the answer is simple.. Kennard played with great energy the entire time & I am not seeing that with Ingram...yet. The play last night when possessions were crucial & he passively reached for the ball instead of just grabbing it really disturbed me. I don't care who you are I want to see you play hard. We all know Jefferson & Plumlee are not making any all-american teams but don't we love them because they play with everything they have?

It is so rare to see a Dukie get out-hustled that it's almost shocking when it happens. In the first 6 minutes of the second half, Tillman (Ingram's man) had 2 O Rebounds, 4 D rebounds a dunk, two free throws and a steal.


As far as Grayson is concerned I don't read much into his not starting. We have all seen Coach K many times do this to get a message across. He started the second half if I remember correctly. I expect he will start tomorrow. Not much question at this point that he is our best player.

Yes, Allen started the 2nd half in place of Jones.

Neals384
11-21-2015, 10:30 PM
Eh I think it's engendered some good discussion. Would like to change the thread title to "Brandon Ingram" though. Mods?

This. I cringed when I read the thread title.

cptnflash
11-21-2015, 10:54 PM
Wow.

This is a ridiculous thread. :mad:

Wow. This is what bothers me about DBR sometimes: a highly sporked poster belittling a perfectly reasonable discussion. Ingram has been our lowest efficiency player so far. He's our most highly ranked freshman, on par with Kyrie and Austin (#3 overall in their respective classes), and more highly ranked than Justice, Tyus, Nolan, or Kyle (to name a few from the past 10 years or so). Sorry that you're mad, but this is a perfectly reasonable discussion given Brandon's performance so far.

To be clear, I hope he gets better, as I'm sure everyone does. But a thread about lineups / playing time based on performance (which, again, Coach K seems to agree with) shouldn't make anybody mad.

Jarhead
11-21-2015, 11:03 PM
My recollection is that Coach K often decides who starts by their performance in practice. On the other hand with a roster that is more green than blue, he will experiment with a starting lineup. That's what he is doing now. I'm guessing that he is also working on a development plan for each of the newcomers. So, keep up the good work, Coach, but could someone put Ingram on cardio and weight machines with a good weight building diet?

Edouble
11-21-2015, 11:32 PM
My recollection is that Coach K often decides who starts by their performance in practice. On the other hand with a roster that is more green than blue, he will experiment with a starting lineup. That's what he is doing now. I'm guessing that he is also working on a development plan for each of the newcomers. So, keep up the good work, Coach, but could someone put Ingram on cardio and weight machines with a good weight building diet?

No cardio, no machines. Squats, deadlifts, pullups, and dips only.

I say give him the Mike Dunleavy diet too. Peanut butter sandwiches and whole milk before bed, I believe!

sagegrouse
11-22-2015, 12:10 AM
If that's what you believe, then why didn't that line of thinking apply to Grayson Allen? Why was he benched after one bad game? He's a sophomore with experience and the two highest scoring games to start a season by any Duke player since Johnny Dawkins. Why didn't he get a little more time than 3 games to figure it out? Why was it not "way too early" to have him come off the bench? Are you suggesting that Ingram deserves a pass because he's a freshman and talented, but Allen does not because he's not a freshman, and/or he's not as talented? Does Ingram somehow have more margin for error because of his size or skillset? Honest questions for you.

And by the way, I'm going to continue talking about it because I find it interesting. I enjoy discussing the team with fellow Duke fans. That's the primary purpose of this message board. So please excuse me when I decline to be patient and take it easy, and just assume Coach K will take care of it. I'm sure he will, but I'm still going to engage in a discussion about the team and what interests me about Duke basketball. This is exactly how I enjoy the ride. Please respect the fact I "enjoy the ride" differently than you do.
I am having a little trouble on the "benching" of Grayson. Didn't he play 37 mins.?

Also, my advice is to take it easy and enjoy the other posters, even when they are wrong. It may be your turn soon enough.

Oriole Way
11-22-2015, 08:49 AM
To the posters like DeBlueDevil, weezie, and MChambers who called me out for this thread being ridiculous or a waste of time, I'll point out that I have gotten comments like those multiple times about lineup moves in the past. Moves that I have suggested ahead of time that were eventually made by Coach K.

During the 2008-2009 season, I was one of the few posters on this board who called for making Jon Scheyer the team's point guard and giving Elliot Williams more minutes and moving him into the starting lineup. In fact, I was one of the first posters on the DBR message board - if not the very first poster - to recommend sliding Jon Scheyer over to PG (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14233-MBB-Clemson-74-Duke-47-Post-Game-Thread&p=253653#post253653). I made the suggestion following what was perhaps Duke's worst loss in the Coach K era against Clemson that season, and I immediately went to war with several posters who thought my idea wouldn't work or wouldn't happen. Including some similar comments to those in this thread from weezie and MChambers.

I also butted heads with Jumbo, a well-respected poster who was one of the most prolific posters on this site at the time who has since disappeared, throughout much of that season over Coach K's usage of Elliot Williams. Duke's season that year was turned around when Coach K moved Jon Scheyer to PG and inserted Elliot Williams into the starting lineup, another move which I specifically called ahead of time (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14466-MBB-Duke-Boston-College-postgame-thread&p=259199#post259199), against St. John's. I called for it for the very game (St. John's) that Coach K wound up making the Scheyer/Williams moves, actually. Here's another post where I explained why the move made sense (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14233-MBB-Clemson-74-Duke-47-Post-Game-Thread&p=253773#post253773) when multiple posters were disagreeing with me.

My best post on DBR in the 12+ years that I've been posting here was my case for using Jon Scheyer as the team's PG (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14566-the-case-for-continuing-to-use-Jon-Scheyer-at-the-point&p=261240#post261240). DeBlueDevil's sarcastic comment about me thinking I know more than Coach K reminded me of another post made in those days sarcastically dismissing my suggestion of making Scheyer the team's PG (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14233-MBB-Clemson-74-Duke-47-Post-Game-Thread&p=253682#post253682). I wound up in a heated disagreement with that poster (who still posts here) over the course of multiple threads, but I feel I debated my opinions effectively and in a civil manner.

I'm not always going to be right about my suggestions, and I've been wrong many times before, but when I make a starting lineup suggestion or playing time suggestions, I'm making those assertions based on a solid understanding of the game of basketball, extensive experience watching Duke teams in the past, and statistics.

Brandon Ingram could very easily have his breakout game today against Georgetown, score 25 points with a versatile line doing it all to lead us to a big win, and start the rest of the way. I hope that winds up happening! All I'm saying is that based on his play thus far, and especially if he continues to struggle, I think the best move for him and for the team is to bring him off the bench - just for a few games. But I could be wrong, and I will be happy for him and for the team if I am. Either way, getting some criticism from a few posters isn't going to discourage me from making the suggestion and discussing it with fellow Duke fans.

Furniture
11-22-2015, 10:07 AM
Oriole. I wouldn't take these comments as criticism. Anyway...
It's a valid discussion but I hope he doesn't get benched. It must be just a question of time...

flyingdutchdevil
11-22-2015, 10:18 AM
Oriole. I wouldn't take these comments as criticism. Anyway...
It's a valid discussion but I hope he doesn't get benched. It must be just a question of time...

I think Oriole may have interpreted these comments as 'Coach K's word is gospel and no one should ever criticize him', which the posters may or may not have been thinking. If that's the case, I side with Oriole that we should be free to criticize playing time choices and starting choices if we do it in a constructive way, which Oriole certainly did. The only issue I have with this thread is the title, which I do find unfortunate (and I would assume that Oriole would change it if he could).

On the subject at hand, I too have been confused and slightly disappointed by Ingram's play for the first four games. It's way too early to come up with any concrete conclusions, but it this season were to end today, I couldn't see how Ingram was ranked in the top 50, not to mention top 5. But every player improves at different paces, and I hope that 'lightbulb' clicks on sooner rather than later. This team cannot go deep without Grayson and Ingram, our two players with the most scoring potential. The jury is out on how effective Thornton can score, but he's looking really good. Thornton's four game progress has been one of the most exciting parts of this young team. I already have adopted him as my new favorite Devil for the next x years (ala Nolan and Cook. I missed on Sulaimon). But Ingram hasn't shown improvement, and his game against VCU was easily his worst.

Side note on Thornton: he's gonna be a leader for Duke sooner rather than later. When Ingram had missed four or so FT shots, Thornton went to talk to Ingram at the line. It was an awesome bonding moment for the two freshman. So happy Thornton is a Dukie!

Furniture
11-22-2015, 10:38 AM
Good point FDD. I also think Thornton will be a great energizing leader! Anyway, I also noticed several of the team giving Brandon encouragement which sort of contradicts some comment I read (somewhere) that this team doesn't have chemistry.
This afternoon is going to be fun!!

flyingdutchdevil
11-22-2015, 10:45 AM
Good point FDD. I also think Thornton will be a great energizing leader! Anyway, I also noticed several of the team giving Brandon encouragement which sort of contradicts some comment I read (somewhere) that this team doesn't have chemistry.
This afternoon is going to be fun!!

I couldn't agree more. I think this team has amazing off the court chemistry. In Matt Jones, they have an egoless father figure who has taken the little ones under his wing. In MP3 and AJ, they have two senior veterans who know their on court roles better than anyone. And in Grayson, they have a hardworking, down to earth bulldog. They clearly enjoy each other on the court. They have little on court basketball chemistry right now, but that will change!

Troublemaker
11-22-2015, 11:11 AM
Thornton's four game progress has been one of the most exciting parts of this young team.

Agreed.


I already have adopted him as my new favorite Devil for the next x years (ala Nolan and Cook. I missed on Sulaimon).

I hate to say this but it HAS crossed my mind that x = 0.5

Let's see if the upward trend continues over the next few games. If it does, then great. I would take Derryck playing great and raising the ceiling for this team to do great things at the cost of him possibly not being around for next season's super team. I just try to take it season-by-season, and I have confidence in Coach K and staff to scramble and figure something out in the offseason if needed.

vick
11-22-2015, 11:30 AM
Completely agree that based on what we've seen so far, the starting / most minutes lineup should be Thornton/Allen/Jones/Jefferson/Plumlee, unless matchups dictate otherwise. So far, Ingram has been reminiscent of Austin Rivers - lots of hype, high usage, low efficiency on offense, and limited intensity on defense. Like everyone, I hope he improves, but so far he's not one of our best 5 players and I'd like to see him come off the bench.

The difference between this case and Rivers (or the Elliot Williams example Oriole Way mentions) is that we have very, very little game data on Ingram to go on--even an 80% confidence interval around Ingram's three point shooting would be 14%-46%, if I remember my probabilities right. Maybe he turns out to be an inefficient player, but as a counterexample, last year Justice Winslow had a couple of similarly inefficient stretches (albeit with lower usage)--it just wasn't the first four games of the season.

johnb
11-22-2015, 11:46 AM
I see no similarity between Brandon Ingram and Austin Rivers, who's probably the least liked Duke star at DBR.

While I'm more impressed by Matt Jones' overall play, I like Grayson's athleticism and spunk. If he plays his current game AND he's our best player at the end of the year, however, I'm not sure we'll be in the top 10. And his current game is nowhere near NPOY material. we need him, but to be really successful, we need some other guys to step up, particularly Brandon and Thornton.

Fortunately, Thornton looks like a different guy than he did a week ago. I look forward to what he can in January.

As for this whole thread, why the bickering? Why can't we all unite in support of Northern Iowa?

NM Duke Fan
11-22-2015, 12:25 PM
Some interesting points in this thread. Perhaps it would have created less "bickering" if the title had been something along the lines of "Better to bring Brandon off the bench for now?"

In any case, it is clear that 6 players are likely to get major minutes at present as essentially starters, and the seventh shows every sign of being close to that level of play in short order, Luke just needs some shots to fall. And with Chase, although he may take longer to adjust and needs some more strength for his position, he has shown lots of energy and passion. His time will come, the talent is there.

It is going to be more like a typical Duke season, with the freshmen having plenty of growing pains and some ups and downs. Last year was more of an anomaly! Watching the kids grow, each at their own pace, is a part of the joy of college basketball. And this team has plenty of potential to be an excellent team by the end of the year. I think if anything Coach K is better than ever at adjusting scheme and lineups. To me, his recent international experience and collaboration with Boeheim has helped his flexibility and adaptability... and maybe even his sense of timing with lineup adjustments

uh_no
11-22-2015, 12:30 PM
Fortunately, Thornton looks like a different guy than he did a week ago. I look forward to what he can in January.


I'm still not entirely sold on thornton. He had a really good game, no doubt, but I still haven't seen him serve as the facilitator that I think this team needs as a PG.

One of Tyus' best skills was knowing when the team needed him to score, and knowing when it needed him to facilitate, and doing either of those things very well. We see Tyler can go full speed and try to get points....but I haven't seen him do much else....it seems to be score or turnover.

Now that's probably an OVERLY pessimistic view, as he did have 4 assists last night, but that has been the high in the two "real" games we've played, and he's got a 1:1 A/TO in those two games. For this team to succeed, that's going to need to improve. The lack of playing facilitator (or scorer for that matter), really hurt us against KY.

That all said, I'm content to sit back and watch him improve over the course of the year. We have THE ultimate decision maker in Jon coaching him, and he clearly has a lot of talent. Expect some bumps, though, as he finds the ability to play effectively.

uh_no
11-22-2015, 01:03 PM
hope for a good game from him off the bench.

weezie
11-22-2015, 01:14 PM
I stand corrected. oriole way called it.

DeBlueDevil
11-22-2015, 03:50 PM
No doubt. Great call by Oriole. As I stated in my rebuttals earlier I'm a huge fan of debate and respect anyone's opinion. I just found the title of the thread and the initial tone to be a little "touchy" is all. In the end, like the rest of you I'm hoping all of these kids succeed!

Again, good call Oriole. Let's hope Brandon learns from today's experience.

-jk
11-22-2015, 03:58 PM
So let's respectfully rebut opinions, and not attack the opinionated...

-jk

fuse
11-22-2015, 04:36 PM
The real question becomes, starting or not, what is Brandon Ingram willing to do to earn more than spot duty?
15 minutes of role play feels about right until he begins to assert himself.

I want all good things for Brandon and all Duke players.
I anticipate a roller coaster as everyone on the team gels and roles are solidified.

Newton_14
11-22-2015, 10:12 PM
Agreed, I think we see the same starting lineup tomorrow. But I'll be paying close attention to Ingram.

Honestly, it's a good problem to have. 6 guys playing well enough or talented enough to start.

I am going to stand up for Oriole Way on this one. I gave him props using the comments feature and will say it here. It was a great post with exception of the title. I felt the title was too harsh/negative, but his post was not. He made very valid and accurate points. I felt like K would bring Brandon off the bench today and he did. Unfortunately Brandon still struggled and it cost him minutes this time, which I worry about more than starting. I am a worrier in that regard, and always have been because I want the kids to be happy and be good teammates, and as we know some kids respond well to being sat for awhile and some don't. Winslow went through that last year (though injury also played a role) and he barely played in the 1K game against St Johns, but came back strong after 4 or 5 bad games.

I said it in the post game thread and will say it here, Brandon is struggling to figure out what will work against College Defenses and what won't, and he is now officially pressing. However, he is uber talented, a winner, and will figure it out. I hope he reviews the film of the two games, sees what we saw, then gets in the gym and works with a positive attitude. The upperclassmen need to help him in this regard with encouragement, guidance, and with pointing out ways Brandon can be better effective. Even Grayson can help him by pointing out the struggles he had as a freshman, and the mental stuff.

I have no problem with Brandon coming off the bench, nor with Kennard coming off the bench, I just hope neither of them sulk, and that both will recognize why they are not starting, and work on their games to improve. I think we are better with both of them playing well and getting solid minutes. I would hope both of them can be content being a 6th man or 7th man, while still getting starter type minutes. With Thornton now locked in as the starting PG, and Grayson playing at AA status, it comes down to Brandon or Matt being the 6th man. K is not likely to bring Matt of the bench, unless that ends up being the best move for the team.

If Brandon starts playing like the player we all know he can be, he will get plenty of minutes. Still might not start, but only 5 guys can. No one is supplanting Amile, and as much as K loves small ball, starting Amile at the 5 with Brandon at the 4 is not likely. They will surely play together in those spots at times, but I doubt we see it as a starting line up.

It's one of those unique years where it may not be possible to start or play the 5 best players together, but as of right now, I would argue 5 current best players started the game today. Long season though.

Furniture
11-22-2015, 11:05 PM
I didnt have a problem with this thread as I eluded before the game but now I may have. I mean should we now be celebrating the validity of it?
No criticism of the OP but somehow I don't feel right about this thread anymore. Over the years there have been discussions about Quinn and his attitude and performance and Austin too (maybe others) but not a dedicated one about benching them.
For heavens sake! When infractions are received its always about if a certain player reads the post and how he would feel.
How will Brandon feel if he reads this?!!!

gep
11-22-2015, 11:14 PM
I've never played team sports in any formal fashion. Can you guys let me know what "starting" means. I mean, if Grayson doesn't start, but gets 37 minutes and 30 points, does it really matter that he doesn't start? And for Brandon, if he doesn't start, but gets "starter" minutes as he grows, is that such a negative? Maybe starting the game means more and is more that I can imagine. I remember, in previous years, some have said that it's more important in who ends the game - especially a close game - than who starts. In that respect, Luke was in at the end of the VCU game (IIRC).

uh_no
11-22-2015, 11:16 PM
I didnt have a problem with this thread as I eluded before the game but now I may have. I mean should we now be celebrating the validity of it?
No criticism of the OP but somehow I don't feel right about this thread anymore. Over the years there have been discussions about Quinn and his attitude and performance and Austin too (maybe others) but not a dedicated one about benching them.
For heavens sake! When infractions are received its always about if a certain player reads the post and how he would feel.
How will Brandon feel if he reads this?!!!

hopefully the same as if he were to look at his stats.

as was pointed out, the post was well defended in stats/facts. If a player can't come to terms with how they're playing, then there're other issues. A bigger concern is people dumping on players for whatever reasons and getting away from facts.

I don't think anyone here says brandon stinks or can't contribute to this team or should give up now...just that at this point, the team has played better when he is not on the floor.

I'd hope that any duke player would look at that and challenge themselves to improve. So from that perspective, I hope brandon sees this, and hope that he challenges himself to figure out how he is going to contribute to this team....all the fans and coaches are behind him in that journey.

jipops
11-22-2015, 11:49 PM
We're still a week away from December. I have no concerns about Ingram.

JNort
11-23-2015, 12:36 AM
Maybe I am seeing something different (like always on here) but I have seen nothing wrong with Ingram other than he just isn't an aggressive scorer. No other issues he looks good to me.

AtlDuke72
11-23-2015, 08:54 AM
Maybe I am seeing something different (like always on here) but I have seen nothing wrong with Ingram other than he just isn't an aggressive scorer. No other issues he looks good to me.

I hope that you are right, but so far he has shown nothing that would make him a likely one and done player which is what was said about him throughout his recruitment. I am hoping that he starts showing the talent this year, but my guess is that he needs another year or two to mature. Of course, having him do that next year would be great for what is already looking like an awesome team.

Ichabod Drain
11-23-2015, 09:03 AM
I'm still not entirely sold on thornton. He had a really good game, no doubt, but I still haven't seen him serve as the facilitator that I think this team needs as a PG.

One of Tyus' best skills was knowing when the team needed him to score, and knowing when it needed him to facilitate, and doing either of those things very well. We see Tyler can go full speed and try to get points...but I haven't seen him do much else...it seems to be score or turnover.

Now that's probably an OVERLY pessimistic view, as he did have 4 assists last night, but that has been the high in the two "real" games we've played, and he's got a 1:1 A/TO in those two games. For this team to succeed, that's going to need to improve. The lack of playing facilitator (or scorer for that matter), really hurt us against KY.

That all said, I'm content to sit back and watch him improve over the course of the year. We have THE ultimate decision maker in Jon coaching him, and he clearly has a lot of talent. Expect some bumps, though, as he finds the ability to play effectively.

I actually never saw Tyler do that.

NYBri
11-23-2015, 09:13 AM
Maybe I am seeing something different (like always on here) but I have seen nothing wrong with Ingram other than he just isn't an aggressive scorer. No other issues he looks good to me.
Having him at the foul line to attack the zone is a perfect spot for him to do what he does best...hit the jumper or drive to the rim. Loved that move by K and it may offer him a chance to build the confidence.

Troublemaker
11-23-2015, 09:19 AM
If Brandon starts playing like the player we all know he can be, he will get plenty of minutes. Still might not start, but only 5 guys can. No one is supplanting Amile, and as much as K loves small ball, starting Amile at the 5 with Brandon at the 4 is not likely. They will surely play together in those spots at times, but I doubt we see it as a starting line up.

One point of disagreement, my friend.

I don't know if that lineup will technically start or not -- as you know, a lot of that is just a matter of semantics -- but I would be surprised if the lineup that receives the most minutes this season ISN'T Thornton-Allen-Jones-Ingram-(Center), with (Center) most likely being Amile.

I just don't see any way around it. Derryck, Grayson, and Matt are all too good not to receive starter's minutes. And once Luke gets his shot going, 120 minutes total just for those 4 guys will be barely enough.

Interesting stat about Luke: he's played 96 total minutes now and hasn't committed a single turnover yet this season. What a great job the freshman has done protecting the ball. Luke's probably the most polished freshman right now, but his talent level is lower than Derryck's or Brandon's (but still pretty high on an absolute scale) and he hasn't gotten his shot going. He's going to continue to deserve 20 mpg when his shot starts falling. In competitive games, I see the minutes on the perimeter being something like this: Derryck(30), Grayson(35), Matt(35), Luke (20).

Brandon will be converted to a stretch-4 and the 1-3-1 zone will become a staple of our defense. That's what I see happening.

FerryFor50
11-23-2015, 09:35 AM
One point of disagreement, my friend.

I don't know if that lineup will technically start or not -- as you know, a lot of that is just a matter of semantics -- but I would be surprised if the lineup that receives the most minutes this season ISN'T Thornton-Allen-Jones-Ingram-(Center), with (Center) most likely being Amile.

I just don't see any way around it. Derryck, Grayson, and Matt are all too good not to receive starter's minutes. And once Luke gets his shot going, 120 minutes total just for those 4 guys will be barely enough.

Interesting stat about Luke: he's played 96 total minutes now and hasn't committed a single turnover yet this season. What a great job the freshman has done protecting the ball. Luke's probably the most polished freshman right now, but his talent level is lower than Derryck's or Brandon's (but still pretty high on an absolute scale) and he hasn't gotten his shot going. He's going to continue to deserve 20 mpg when his shot starts falling. In competitive games, I see the minutes on the perimeter being something like this: Derryck(30), Grayson(35), Matt(35), Luke (20).

Brandon will be converted to a stretch-4 and the 1-3-1 zone will become a staple of our defense. That's what I see happening.

I agree with this, simply because he will have to - Amile and Marshall, as much as I love em, are limited offensively. Having Ingram out there at the 4 with the other guys gives the offense a more dynamic look and takes some of the heat off Grayson Allen.

This year's Duke team can survive one offensive liability, but not two. Okafor, Jones and Winslow aren't coming back through the door.

RepoMan
11-23-2015, 09:45 AM
I have no problem with Brandon coming off the bench, nor with Kennard coming off the bench, I just hope neither of them sulk, and that both will recognize why they are not starting, and work on their games to improve. I think we are better with both of them playing well and getting solid minutes. I would hope both of them can be content being a 6th man or 7th man, while still getting starter type minutes.

Agree with all of this. And, because we have exceptional veteran leadership, I am optimistic that sulking will not become an issue.

Troublemaker
11-23-2015, 10:23 AM
I agree with this, simply because he will have to - Amile and Marshall, as much as I love em, are limited offensively. Having Ingram out there at the 4 with the other guys gives the offense a more dynamic look and takes some of the heat off Grayson Allen.

This year's Duke team can survive one offensive liability, but not two. Okafor, Jones and Winslow aren't coming back through the door.

That's exactly right. In fact, the conversion to full-time Stretch 4 may have already started. In Neals' plus-minus lineups for the G'town game (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36813-2015-16-Season-Plus-Minus&p=840558#post840558), we can see that Brandon ONLY played the 4 and some 5 yesterday, the latter when we were trying to close out the game. And this is against Georgetown, a big team, mind you.

If you put Brandon at the 4, he's usually going to be quicker than the man guarding him. If he can pull his game together and also start shooting like he's capable of, all of a sudden we have a dynamic second option to pair with Grayson.

Even with his struggles yesterday, you could see his potential at the 4. There was one play where Duke was in our usual "Horns" set and he received the entry pass at the elbow, turned, and drove one step into the big guarding him. Tweet, blocking foul called. So easy. There were also a couple of plays where he set a high-ball screen and popped out to the wing and was wide open. Our guards will get used to finding him for easy threes on those plays.

The concern with Brandon at the 4 will be two-fold:

1) Getting posted up. This one I would invite. First of all, we're going to zone more this season than usual, and in the 1-3-1, he'd usually be up top anyway. Second of all, if he does get posted up, fine! With the rules and points of emphasis the way they are this season, please waste your time posting up instead of giving the ball to your guards to drive, hypothetical opponent. Brandon will just need to maintain verticality when posted up so he doesn't collect fouls.

2) Rebounding. Again, mitigated somewhat if we're playing 1-3-1 with Brandon at the top and Amile in the middle, who can use his great rebounding instincts to hopefully hold his own on the boards in there. The perimeter will also have to do a good job helping out on the boards.

My working theory is that the offensive advantage gained with Brandon at the 4 far outweighs any dropoff in defense and rebounding. Duke should be the best offense in the country with Brandon as stretch 4.

FerryFor50
11-23-2015, 10:26 AM
That's exactly right. In fact, the conversion to full-time Stretch 4 may have already started. In Neals' plus-minus lineups for the G'town game (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36813-2015-16-Season-Plus-Minus&p=840558#post840558), we can see that Brandon ONLY played the 4 and some 5 yesterday, the latter when we were trying to close out the game. And this is against Georgetown, a big team, mind you.

If you put Brandon at the 4, he's usually going to be quicker than the man guarding him. If he can pull his game together and also start shooting like he's capable of, all of a sudden we have a dynamic second option to pair with Grayson.

Even with his struggles yesterday, you could see his potential at the 4. There was one play where Duke was in our usual "Horns" set and he received the entry pass at the elbow, turned, and drove one step into the big guarding him. Tweet, blocking foul called. So easy. There were also a couple of plays where he set a high-ball screen and popped out to the wing and was wide open. Our guards will get used to finding him for easy threes on those plays.

The concern with Brandon at the 4 will be two-fold:

1) Getting posted up. This one I would invite. First of all, we're going to zone more this season than usual, and in the 1-3-1, he'd usually be up top anyway. Second of all, if he does get posted up, fine! With the rules and points of emphasis the way they are this season, please waste your time posting up instead of giving the ball to your guards to drive, hypothetical opponent. Hopefully Brandon will maintain verticality when posted up so he doesn't collect fouls.

2) Rebounding. Again, mitigated somewhat if we're playing 1-3-1 with Brandon at the top and Amile in the middle, who can use his great rebounding instincts to hopefully hold his own in there. The perimeter will also have to do a good job helping out on the boards.

But, my working theory is that the offensive advantage gained with Brandon at the 4 far outweighs any dropoff in defense and rebounding. Duke should be the best offense in the country with Brandon as stretch 4.

Ingram's issues at 4/5 will be strength/weight related. But he has better quickness and athleticism and length than *most* of the college 4s/5s out there, so that would be a wash, I think.

Also, an advantage of Brandon at the 4 is that all of those wide open 15 foot jumpers than Amile passes up will now be an actual threat and a zone killer. I see Ingram being able to fill the Jabari/Rodney Hood role.

Troublemaker
11-23-2015, 10:33 AM
Ingram's issues at 4/5 will be strength/weight related. But he has better quickness and athleticism and length than *most* of the college 4s/5s out there, so that would be a wash, I think.

Also, an advantage of Brandon at the 4 is that all of those wide open 15 foot jumpers than Amile passes up will now be an actual threat and a zone killer. I see Ingram being able to fill the Jabari/Rodney Hood role.

Exactly what I'm thinking again.

Brandon-at-4 will create a situation where most opponents can't guard us in m2m BUT they ALSO can't zone to slow us down. Meanwhile, hopefully Duke's 1-3-1 will work to slow down most teams using Brandon and Amile's length. We can zone effectively, but the opponent can't. That's a great situation to be in under the current season's rules. That's the idea, anyway. Let's see what Coach is thinking and how it plays out.

FerryFor50
11-23-2015, 10:36 AM
Exactly what I'm thinking again.

Brandon-at-4 will create a situation where most opponents can't guard us in m2m BUT they also can't zone to slow us down. Meanwhile, hopefully Duke's 1-3-1 will work to slow down most teams using Brandon and Amile's length. We can zone effectively, but the opponent can't. That's the idea, anyway. Let's see what Coach is thinking and how it plays out.

Have we seen much 3-2 zone, a la Syracuse? (I was out of town last week and missed most of the games)

I feel like having Ingram at the top of that zone would be pretty nice and we could play Amile/MP3 in that look on the block.

Will be an interesting season for sure, and this team is brimming with potential. Just hope they put it all together.

kAzE
11-23-2015, 10:43 AM
Ingram is probably the most talented player on the team. He's the one guy that we have that 99% of opposing teams won't have a good guy to match up with. He's the spearhead of our 1-3-1 zone. That said, he has absolutely struggled adjusting to the speed and intensity of the college game. I think he's also struggling with not being the #1 option on offense. The first couple of games, it seemed like the coaching staff wanted him to focus on getting his shot, but it quickly became apparent that he lacked either the killer instinct or just enough touch to justify him as our #1 or #1A option, and he has struggled to fit in since then.

Ingram will get it going at some point, as he is way too talented to keep playing this poorly. I believe the same is true of Kennard, and even Jeter, who had a brilliant 2 or 3 minutes against Georgetown. Thornton has already put a slow start behind him and is looking more confident each game. Hopefully, he develops his play making instincts to become a better facilitator, because with his creativity handling the ball, he really could be the catalyst this offense needs to become dominant. It would help Ingram out as well, as he is having trouble getting his own shot.

I still think the best starting lineup at some point will include Ingram, but he will need to be brought along more slowly than initially anticipated. This is not last year's recruiting class, with 2 NBA ready freshmen from game 1. Ingram should still be a 1 and done. Hopefully, his best games will come in February and March.

FerryFor50
11-23-2015, 10:44 AM
Ingram is probably the most talented player on the team. He's the one guy that we have that 99% of opposing teams won't have a good guy to match up with him. He's the spearhead of our 1-3-1 zone. That said, he has absolutely struggled adjusting to the speed and intensity of the college game. I think he's also struggling with not being the #1 option on offense. The first couple of games, it seemed like the coaching staff wanted him to focus on getting his shot, but it quickly became apparent that he lacked either the killer instinct or just enough touch to justify him as our #1 or #1A option, and he has struggled to fit in since then.

Ingram will get it going at some point, as he is way too talented to keep playing this poorly. I believe the same is true of Kennard, and even Jeter, who had a brilliant 2 or 3 minutes against Georgetown. Thornton has already put a slow start behind him and is looking more confident each game. Hopefully, he develops his play making instincts to develop into a better facilitator, because with his creativity handling the ball, he really could be the catalyst this offense needs to become dominant. It would help Ingram out as well, as he is having trouble getting his own shot.

I think Ingram is just finding his way and where he fits. And the coaching staff is as well. I don't have any concerns about Ingram. I was much more concerned about Allen after the Kentucky game, and we see how that's played out the last few games. ;)

duke blue brewcrew
11-23-2015, 10:58 AM
I didnt have a problem with this thread as I eluded before the game but now I may have. I mean should we now be celebrating the validity of it?
No criticism of the OP but somehow I don't feel right about this thread anymore. Over the years there have been discussions about Quinn and his attitude and performance and Austin too (maybe others) but not a dedicated one about benching them.
For heavens sake! When infractions are received its always about if a certain player reads the post and how he would feel.
How will Brandon feel if he reads this?!!!

I don't think anyone is celebrating anything. I think the thread's intent and initial post by Oriole were spot on. Ingram has struggled early on in his Duke career. IMHO He doesn't have the physical strength to assert himself in the paint, or in 50/50 ball situations, and I believe his efforts to get stronger have impacted his jumper to some degree. All of this is normal stuff for a talented kid to go through as he makes an adjustment to the HS game. The real problem is EXPECTATIONS. Over the past now several years that Duke has seen O&D players come through the program, it's been very evident immediately that the O&Ds were simply on another level. Not just great players, but special players in an almost man among boys setting on the court. So naturally, when Ingram was billed as a for sure O&D, we all as fans expected to see this same story line continue. When it didn't, at least early on, we were left to scratch out heads and wonder what's going on. Every player has to run their own race, it's cliche but true. Who knows, maybe Ingram has the light bulb come on as the season progresses and proves to be that O&D player that all of the pre-season prognosticators said he would be. There are other very talented freshmen players on Duke's team still working to figure things out at the next level. Perception has not met early reality with Ingram early on, so let's all re-adjust expectations on Ingram to that of a really talented, but needs some time to grow into it nature, and enjoy the ride as he matures and blossoms. He's going to be talented, and given his uniqueness, probably very special. What Ingram needs now (to reiterate) IMHO is time, growth, patience and experience. Ingram has a leg up on anyone else potentially in his position outside of the Duke program, in that he has the best coaching staff and teammates in the biz helping him work through it.

dukebballcamper90-91
11-23-2015, 11:33 AM
Ingram did some things that don't show up on stat sheet like disrupting the offense when he was at top of the 1-3-1.

J_C_Steel
11-23-2015, 11:56 AM
Brandon Ingram is clearly the fulcrum of this year's Duke team. If Ingram can grow and improve as an overall player, and especially as a scorer, this team has Final Four potential. But I think Ingram will need to be able to put up a regular 15/7/3 line for that to happen. He has the talent; the coaches just need to bring out the results. Derryck Thornton looks like a point guard who will get better throughout the year and, potentially, play a leadership role in March. I'm still wary of Thornton's defense, as he appears flat-footed when involved in a pick-and-roll, but even if the defense never comes around he can still bring value as an offensive facilitator and third scoring option.

As others have mentioned, here would be my ideal starting 5:

Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson

Sixth man -- Kennard
Backup 5 -- Plumlee
4/5 Depth -- Jeter

It's not last year's 8, but that was a special bunch. Both Jones and Jefferson can play excellent defense. I can see Coach K still utilizing zone concepts to avoid foul trouble and mask the defensive deficiencies of Thornton and Allen, but that lineup can score the ball. Should be fun to watch this year's team evolve.

Devilwin
11-23-2015, 12:40 PM
I think Ingram is on the verge of the light coming on. Thornton and Kennard played well against Georgetown, and so did Jeter with limited minutes. Ingram is just too talented for it to be much longer.
I see this team only getting better. Some observations:
Grayson Allen's three point shooting is off the hook right now. Just wish he'd have taken more of those against UK.
Thornton is looking more and more comfortable with each game.
Matt's shot still erratic from three point land, but I love how he leads.
Amile is never going to be a good free throw shooter. Not ever. But he does so much for this team in other areas, and we are fortunate indeed to have him.
Like the way Kennard is slowly coming around as well. Those threes are gonna start falling, and he has other skills beyond just outside shooting.
Ingram, as I said, will get there. I feel the kid came in so ballyhooed, he's forcing the issue.
Marshall is showing great inside play, and gives us strength we need.
Wondering about Obi. Read somewhere that he gave Okafor fits in practice.
Jeter appears fearless,I like his game, and his minutes will come.
This youngster dominated team will take its lumps this year, but they are very capable of giving some lumps too.
March and April could be very special this year, again!

jipops
11-23-2015, 12:52 PM
Ingram is probably the most talented player on the team. He's the one guy that we have that 99% of opposing teams won't have a good guy to match up with. He's the spearhead of our 1-3-1 zone. That said, he has absolutely struggled adjusting to the speed and intensity of the college game. I think he's also struggling with not being the #1 option on offense. The first couple of games, it seemed like the coaching staff wanted him to focus on getting his shot, but it quickly became apparent that he lacked either the killer instinct or just enough touch to justify him as our #1 or #1A option, and he has struggled to fit in since then.

Ingram will get it going at some point, as he is way too talented to keep playing this poorly. I believe the same is true of Kennard, and even Jeter, who had a brilliant 2 or 3 minutes against Georgetown. Thornton has already put a slow start behind him and is looking more confident each game. Hopefully, he develops his play making instincts to become a better facilitator, because with his creativity handling the ball, he really could be the catalyst this offense needs to become dominant. It would help Ingram out as well, as he is having trouble getting his own shot.

I still think the best starting lineup at some point will include Ingram, but he will need to be brought along more slowly than initially anticipated. This is not last year's recruiting class, with 2 NBA ready freshmen from game 1. Ingram should still be a 1 and done. Hopefully, his best games will come in February and March.

I think you may be hitting on something here. Chances are Ingram has developed his game to this point by being accustomed to having the ball in his hands. I have very little to base this on but does seem like a reasonable guess given his obvious ability to make moves off the dribble and get into the lane. Now he is playing much more off the ball with Derryck and Grayson dictating it. This is potentially a huge mental adjustment for Brandon to make and not one to be taken lightly. But I as I said up thread, it is very early and I have no concerns. He's a baller, he'll be fine.

CDu
11-23-2015, 12:53 PM
Have we seen much 3-2 zone, a la Syracuse? (I was out of town last week and missed most of the games)

I feel like having Ingram at the top of that zone would be pretty nice and we could play Amile/MP3 in that look on the block.

Will be an interesting season for sure, and this team is brimming with potential. Just hope they put it all together.

Minor quibble, but Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone, not a 3-2. We have played 1-3-1 and 2-3 this year, but no 3-2.

FerryFor50
11-23-2015, 01:04 PM
Minor quibble, but Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone, not a 3-2. We have played 1-3-1 and 2-3 this year, but no 3-2.

Oops.

Then, point stands... how do we think a 3-2 would fare?

CDu
11-23-2015, 01:22 PM
Oops.

Then, point stands... how do we think a 3-2 would fare?

Depends. I haven't been too impressed with Ingram's mobility yet. He seems slow-ish laterally and in his reaction to drives. That's a problem on the top of a 3-2 (1-2-2) zone, both in terms of rotating in the zone (the top of the zone has a TON of movement responsibilities) and in terms of preventing dribble penetration up the middle. It might work with his length, but it puts a lot on the shoulders of Ingram defensively, and I'm not sure if that's what we really want right now.

Basically, I think any zone with Ingram, Jefferson, Plumlee, and Jones has the potential to be effective, but only if Ingram is effective. If he's not effective, then you need to have him in a minimized role in a zone, like on the baseline of a 2-3.

luvdahops
11-23-2015, 01:39 PM
What kind of competition did Brandon face in high school? I know he helped lead Kinston to 4 straight Class 3-A State Championships, but isn't 3-A comprised of mid-sized schools? Or at least smaller than 4-A and 3-A/4-A. A quick web check lists Kinston HS as having an enrollment around 1,200.

For reference, Luke Kennard's HS (Franklin, OH) has an enrollment of 940. And there were question marks about the level of competition he played against in HS.

Just curious, but is it possible that Brandon is having an ever bigger competitive adjustment to college ball? Maybe seeing guys with comparable size and athleticism regularly for the first time? Or at least much more frequently? I know he played well on the All-Star circuit last year, but he just doesn't look confident on the court at all right now.

duke blue brewcrew
11-23-2015, 02:03 PM
Brandon Ingram is clearly the fulcrum of this year's Duke team. If Ingram can grow and improve as an overall player, and especially as a scorer, this team has Final Four potential. But I think Ingram will need to be able to put up a regular 15/7/3 line for that to happen. He has the talent; the coaches just need to bring out the results. Derryck Thornton looks like a point guard who will get better throughout the year and, potentially, play a leadership role in March. I'm still wary of Thornton's defense, as he appears flat-footed when involved in a pick-and-roll, but even if the defense never comes around he can still bring value as an offensive facilitator and third scoring option.

As others have mentioned, here would be my ideal starting 5:

Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson

Sixth man -- Kennard
Backup 5 -- Plumlee
4/5 Depth -- Jeter

It's not last year's 8, but that was a special bunch. Both Jones and Jefferson can play excellent defense. I can see Coach K still utilizing zone concepts to avoid foul trouble and mask the defensive deficiencies of Thornton and Allen, but that lineup can score the ball. Should be fun to watch this year's team evolve.

I would disagree that Ingram is the fulcrum of this Duke team's season. If he gets things heading in the right direction, it can only help the Blue Devils, that much I agree with. However, I would argue that the development of Thornton is far more important to Duke's success. Having a true Captain of the Ship, an extension of the coach on the floor, has always been the more important piece historically for successful Coach K teams. Ingram is an incredible piece of this year's Duke puzzle, and has the opportunity to make a significant mark. I'm not discounting his abilities or importance. That said, once DT got into the lineup, and started learning and contributing on the fly, Duke's play has been a lot better. Once Ingram & Kennard start getting traction, then the Blue Devils could be a potentially lethal, hell-to-deal-with kind of team. My immediate future starting line-up would be:

Thornton, Allen, Jones, Jefferson and Plumlee. Bench contributors: Kennard, Ingram and Jeter.

devildeac
11-23-2015, 02:48 PM
What kind of competition did Brandon face in high school? I know he helped lead Kinston to 4 straight Class 3-A State Championships, but isn't 3-A comprised of mid-sized schools? Or at least smaller than 4-A and 3-A/4-A. A quick web check lists Kinston HS as having an enrollment around 1,200.

For reference, Luke Kennard's HS (Franklin, OH) has an enrollment of 940. And there were question marks about the level of competition he played against in HS.

Just curious, but is it possible that Brandon is having an ever bigger competitive adjustment to college ball? Maybe seeing guys with comparable size and athleticism regularly for the first time? Or at least much more frequently? I know he played well on the All-Star circuit last year, but he just doesn't look confident on the court at all right now.

Not sure what kind of competition he faced in high school as I don't follow much NC HS sports now except our children's alma mater. You are correct that 3A is comprised of mid-sized schools and smaller than 4A and/or 3A/4A combined conferences which tend to be in areas not populated enough to have separate 3A and 4A conferences. There are several HS in the Raleigh area and throughout NC now that are 4AA, having enrollments greater than about 2100-2200 students. Football and basketball tournaments/championships are now divided that way and have been for several years. Your thoughts are interesting ones as I think we've had that discussion before about a couple former Duke MBB players, Casey Sanders and Semi Ojeleye come to mind first, as players from smaller HS who had really good prep careers and then struggled at the ACC level.

Clay Feet POF
11-23-2015, 03:06 PM
However, I would argue that the development of Thornton is far more important to Duke's success. Having a true Captain of the Ship, an extension of the coach on the floor, has always been the more important piece historically for successful Coach K teams. Ingram is an incredible piece of this year's Duke puzzle, and has the opportunity to make a significant mark.
.

Absolutely agree with this. Thornton will be the pathfinder of this teams journey through the NCAAT. I'm so impress with his development to this point. I see a hint of him wanting to lead, but deferring to the veteran player until he has full control of Coach K's game plan. Really great that we have him to replace Tyus. I hope we have him next year to lead that Super Class.

As GS said...........Let's GO

Channing
11-23-2015, 03:08 PM
For Duke to be a very good team that makes the S16 and perhaps the E8, I don't think BI has to be the fulcrum. However, to be a true championship contender, I think BI has to be at worst our 1B player next to GA. He has the size and length to be the ultimate matchup nightmare that other teams just can't matchup with.

I also think BI can and will get there. He is so long, and so athletic, that I think it may at times look like he isn't trying that hard. Usually someone with that build is so lanky that it takes incredible effort just to run in a straight line. BI, on the other hand, seems to have incredible coordination and fluidity to his moves.

He will be outstanding - he has too much skill not to excel. He just needs more muscle mass (I say get him in the pool and swimming!). With him running the high post, we become almost impossible to zone.

dukelifer
11-23-2015, 03:28 PM
Ingram is probably the most talented player on the team. He's the one guy that we have that 99% of opposing teams won't have a good guy to match up with. He's the spearhead of our 1-3-1 zone. That said, he has absolutely struggled adjusting to the speed and intensity of the college game. I think he's also struggling with not being the #1 option on offense. The first couple of games, it seemed like the coaching staff wanted him to focus on getting his shot, but it quickly became apparent that he lacked either the killer instinct or just enough touch to justify him as our #1 or #1A option, and he has struggled to fit in since then.

Ingram will get it going at some point, as he is way too talented to keep playing this poorly. I believe the same is true of Kennard, and even Jeter, who had a brilliant 2 or 3 minutes against Georgetown. Thornton has already put a slow start behind him and is looking more confident each game. Hopefully, he develops his play making instincts to become a better facilitator, because with his creativity handling the ball, he really could be the catalyst this offense needs to become dominant. It would help Ingram out as well, as he is having trouble getting his own shot.

I still think the best starting lineup at some point will include Ingram, but he will need to be brought along more slowly than initially anticipated. This is not last year's recruiting class, with 2 NBA ready freshmen from game 1. Ingram should still be a 1 and done. Hopefully, his best games will come in February and March.

The talent is there but he is definitely struggling against better and more physical players. It will come. Grant Hill had a few poor games as a frosh. He turned out to be pretty good. I just wish Ingram would bring his game in closer. I think he would be more effective at 15 ft and in.

COYS
11-23-2015, 03:53 PM
Depends. I haven't been too impressed with Ingram's mobility yet. He seems slow-ish laterally and in his reaction to drives. That's a problem on the top of a 3-2 (1-2-2) zone, both in terms of rotating in the zone (the top of the zone has a TON of movement responsibilities) and in terms of preventing dribble penetration up the middle. It might work with his length, but it puts a lot on the shoulders of Ingram defensively, and I'm not sure if that's what we really want right now.

Basically, I think any zone with Ingram, Jefferson, Plumlee, and Jones has the potential to be effective, but only if Ingram is effective. If he's not effective, then you need to have him in a minimized role in a zone, like on the baseline of a 2-3.

CDu, I agree with your assessment of Ingram's quickness to a point. However, there are also times where he will show incredible quickness (despite many defensive lapses, he had a great deflection on a pass in the second half yesterday that required him to rotate really quickly to cut off a pass to a cutting guard. He even rotated late but made up for it with his long arms and a surprisingly quick first step). We've seen it more on the offensive end with some of his drives where he shows a very quick first step and/or his spin move, which is also super quick, even if his finishing has been a little inconsistent. I actually think his issue on defense has more to do with reaction time, anticipation, and positioning than it does with his over all quickness. He has seemed slow and will sometimes leave his 7'3'' arms down at his sides when closing out shooters. Maybe he's just used to using his long arms against high school competition instead of moving his feet. At his size, it's impossible for him to be the quickest guy on the court, but I think with better footwork, anticipation, and positioning, he should have plenty of quickness to be a plus defender. At any rate, he has not figured out how to use his physical tools on the defensive end at the college level yet. Hopefully he'll figure that out quickly.

luvdahops
11-23-2015, 04:39 PM
CDu, I agree with your assessment of Ingram's quickness to a point. However, there are also times where he will show incredible quickness (despite many defensive lapses, he had a great deflection on a pass in the second half yesterday that required him to rotate really quickly to cut off a pass to a cutting guard. He even rotated late but made up for it with his long arms and a surprisingly quick first step). We've seen it more on the offensive end with some of his drives where he shows a very quick first step and/or his spin move, which is also super quick, even if his finishing has been a little inconsistent. I actually think his issue on defense has more to do with reaction time, anticipation, and positioning than it does with his over all quickness. He has seemed slow and will sometimes leave his 7'3'' arms down at his sides when closing out shooters. Maybe he's just used to using his long arms against high school competition instead of moving his feet. At his size, it's impossible for him to be the quickest guy on the court, but I think with better footwork, anticipation, and positioning, he should have plenty of quickness to be a plus defender. At any rate, he has not figured out how to use his physical tools on the defensive end at the college level yet. Hopefully he'll figure that out quickly.

Not to put words in CDu's mouth, but I believe he was specifically referencing Brandon's lateral - or "reactive" - quickness, which is distinct from the premedidated quickness that evidences itself in a first step with the ball or sharp cut to the hoop. Most players have similar levels of both types, but occasionally you see meaningful disparities. Former Suns PG Kevin Johnson was perhaps the most prominent example that comes to mind of a player with an exceptional first step, but only decent lateral quickness. Ty Lawson is arguably similar in this respect. So far, it appears that this may be the case with Brandon. The Black Falcon is arguably the opposite - very good lateral quickness but no real shake in his first step.

Billy Dat
11-23-2015, 05:24 PM
What kind of competition did Brandon face in high school? I know he helped lead Kinston to 4 straight Class 3-A State Championships, but isn't 3-A comprised of mid-sized schools? Or at least smaller than 4-A and 3-A/4-A. A quick web check lists Kinston HS as having an enrollment around 1,200.
For reference, Luke Kennard's HS (Franklin, OH) has an enrollment of 940. And there were question marks about the level of competition he played against in HS.
Just curious, but is it possible that Brandon is having an ever bigger competitive adjustment to college ball? Maybe seeing guys with comparable size and athleticism regularly for the first time? Or at least much more frequently? I know he played well on the All-Star circuit last year, but he just doesn't look confident on the court at all right now.

I think it's pretty safe to say that Football is the only sport where the road to college runs through the high school team. For nearly every other sport, including basketball, major D1 prospects play most of their "determine my future" games for club/AAU teams and the best kids tend to wind up on high powered teams that play against other high powered teams over and over again. Between his AAU schedule and his summer camp attendance, the kid has faced some prime competition. However, he didn't log the same kind of Team USA experience that Jeter and Kennard did in the summer of 2014 when they played on the FIBA squad with Tyus and Justise. I think that experience is a notch above. Still, he was in the Nike Hoops Summit and he looked great.

The kid just has no confidence right now and doesn't know who he is on this team.

It permeates everything he does. He is tentative on both sides of the ball. I completely chalk this one up to the coaches to get him going, and he needs to do the hard work of listening to what they say and making it happen on the court. Right now though, because he hasn't forced his way to prominence through performance, he is in a holding pattern. We took a big step toward forming an identity in the 2 games since Kentucky but we are still a ways off. What do we know? Grayson Allen is the offensive alpha dog, Derryck Thornton is the point guard and Matt, Marshall and Amile are the glue. What needs to happen now is for someone else to emerge so that Matt can go back to being the "3 and D" guy that maximizes his talent. I agree that for Duke to maximize its potential, at least on paper, we want Brandon to be that guy so that we can wreck people with small ball.

Going back to the Hoop Summit, against elite competition, he was a different player and the difference was confidence. He knew what shots to take, how to set them up, etc. Defense in those scenarios is always tricky, but he knew who he was on offense. Now? I never see him in attack mode. The bad shooting nights in the first two games, combined with his inability to get it going against Kentucky have sapped him. The coaches need to help him get that swagger back.

jv001
11-23-2015, 05:39 PM
I think it's pretty safe to say that Football is the only sport where the road to college runs through the high school team. For nearly every other sport, including basketball, major D1 prospects play most of their "determine my future" games for club/AAU teams and the best kids tend to wind up on high powered teams that play against other high powered teams over and over again. Between his AAU schedule and his summer camp attendance, the kid has faced some prime competition. However, he didn't log the same kind of Team USA experience that Jeter and Kennard did in the summer of 2014 when they played on the FIBA squad with Tyus and Justise. I think that experience is a notch above. Still, he was in the Nike Hoops Summit and he looked great.

The kid just has no confidence right now and doesn't know who he is on this team.

It permeates everything he does. He is tentative on both sides of the ball. I completely chalk this one up to the coaches to get him going, and he needs to do the hard work of listening to what they say and making it happen on the court. Right now though, because he hasn't forced his way to prominence through performance, he is in a holding pattern. We took a big step toward forming an identity in the 2 games since Kentucky but we are still a ways off. What do we know? Grayson Allen is the offensive alpha dog, Derryck Thornton is the point guard and Matt, Marshall and Amile are the glue. What needs to happen now is for someone else to emerge so that Matt can go back to being the "3 and D" guy that maximizes his talent. I agree that for Duke to maximize its potential, at least on paper, we want Brandon to be that guy so that we can wreck people with small ball.

Going back to the Hoop Summit, against elite competition, he was a different player and the difference was confidence. He knew what shots to take, how to set them up, etc. Defense in those scenarios is always tricky, but he knew who he was on offense. Now? I never see him in attack mode. The bad shooting nights in the first two games, combined with his inability to get it going against Kentucky have sapped him. The coaches need to help him get that swagger back.

There is not one thing I disagree with in your post BillyDat. Ingram's confidence is very low right now and it's evident the coaches and teammates are trying hard to get Brandon going. I believe if he begins to put some points on the board, he'll be ok. Coach K has said more than one time, young players see the game through their offense. I think he said this last year with our Championship team( boy that sounds good). Brandon is the most important player Coach needs to get going. With is size and talent, he can make us a FF team if everyone else reaches their potential. Good Post Billy Dat. GoDuke!

ricks68
11-23-2015, 05:51 PM
Not sure what kind of competition he faced in high school as I don't follow much NC HS sports now except our children's alma mater. You are correct that 3A is comprised of mid-sized schools and smaller than 4A and/or 3A/4A combined conferences which tend to be in areas not populated enough to have separate 3A and 4A conferences. There are several HS in the Raleigh area and throughout NC now that are 4AA, having enrollments greater than about 2100-2200 students. Football and basketball tournaments/championships are now divided that way and have been for several years. Your thoughts are interesting ones as I think we've had that discussion before about a couple former Duke MBB players, Casey Sanders and Semi Ojeleye come to mind first, as players from smaller HS who had really good prep careers and then struggled at the ACC level.

How big was JJ's high school?

ricks

luvdahops
11-23-2015, 06:01 PM
I think it's pretty safe to say that Football is the only sport where the road to college runs through the high school team. For nearly every other sport, including basketball, major D1 prospects play most of their "determine my future" games for club/AAU teams and the best kids tend to wind up on high powered teams that play against other high powered teams over and over again. Between his AAU schedule and his summer camp attendance, the kid has faced some prime competition. However, he didn't log the same kind of Team USA experience that Jeter and Kennard did in the summer of 2014 when they played on the FIBA squad with Tyus and Justise. I think that experience is a notch above. Still, he was in the Nike Hoops Summit and he looked great.

The kid just has no confidence right now and doesn't know who he is on this team.

It permeates everything he does. He is tentative on both sides of the ball. I completely chalk this one up to the coaches to get him going, and he needs to do the hard work of listening to what they say and making it happen on the court. Right now though, because he hasn't forced his way to prominence through performance, he is in a holding pattern. We took a big step toward forming an identity in the 2 games since Kentucky but we are still a ways off. What do we know? Grayson Allen is the offensive alpha dog, Derryck Thornton is the point guard and Matt, Marshall and Amile are the glue. What needs to happen now is for someone else to emerge so that Matt can go back to being the "3 and D" guy that maximizes his talent. I agree that for Duke to maximize its potential, at least on paper, we want Brandon to be that guy so that we can wreck people with small ball.

Going back to the Hoop Summit, against elite competition, he was a different player and the difference was confidence. He knew what shots to take, how to set them up, etc. Defense in those scenarios is always tricky, but he knew who he was on offense. Now? I never see him in attack mode. The bad shooting nights in the first two games, combined with his inability to get it going against Kentucky have sapped him. The coaches need to help him get that swagger back.

A lot of fair points, but I would say that based on what I have seen, defense in club/AAU ball - even among the elite teams - is nowhere near what you see in college, or even among highly competitive high schools (I will admit that my perspective may be skewed from living in Metro Chicago, where the HS competition is fierce and, btw, plenty of D-1 coaches/assistant coaches frequently attend games). And I think that is what Brandon is struggling with most. He is no longer an automatic mismatch with whomever is guarding him. And not just against Kentucky. Georgetown had a lot of athletic, mobile guys in the 6-7 to 6-9 range, too.

My memory may be faulty, but didn't Brandon's rankings among the Class of 2015 shoot up a bit just based on the all-star games and Hoops Summit (i.e. from the 10-15 range to top 5)? Maybe that was an overcorrection of sorts? Brick Oettinger was an outlier in ranking him at #17, but maybe that was just based on a longer term view (from a NC native).

Potato Head
11-23-2015, 06:16 PM
Even playing below the level where he should be playing Ingram is still valuable to the team. But we look better as a collective when Thornton gets big minutes so I'm happy with Brandon as a 6th man right now.

Pghdukie
11-23-2015, 06:31 PM
At least this isn't a "TOE" thread. Ingram will be fine. Give him some adjustment time

77devil
11-23-2015, 06:44 PM
Even playing below the level where he should be playing Ingram is still valuable to the team. But we look better as a collective when Thornton gets big minutes so I'm happy with Brandon as a 6th man right now.

Coach K loves the intensity that MP3 brings every day. He loves the senior leadership, defense, rebounding, and glue of Amile. Coach K wants a PG on the floor who is the extension of himself. Grayson is the Alpha Dog and K has stated that this is Matt's team. So where does that leave Brandon? Can his ego deal with being a super 6th man like Corey Maggette? Perhaps Coach K will switch between Matt and Brandon starting at the 3 depending on the match up. These are the kind on problems others would beg to have. We are very fortunate.

rocketeli
11-23-2015, 08:44 PM
What's happening with Brandon Ingram reminds me of what happened with one of DBRs favorite players, Harrison Barnes. Barnes wanted/needed to change the way he played the game (in his case due to a relative lack of athleticism) and he struggled initially, out on the wing, trying to figure out what to do. Ingram seems to have really bought into the idea that he needs to be more of a perimeter player due to his build but he's not really sure what he should be doing out there and it's messed up his offensive game. I'm sure that even coming from a smaller school he played in enough AAU high level circuits and all-star games to have gone up against burly guys before, so maybe he coaches should tell him "It's OK to go inside out, just feel free to back up at times and shoot/drive" and that would make it clearer for him and he would be more comfortable on the court.

OldPhiKap
11-23-2015, 09:02 PM
Not responding to anyone in particular, but really curious about the hand-wringing after four games. The biggest issue is not his play, or anyone's in particular. It is that we don't have established players that let a talented freshman just slip into the line-up. Amile is the only one with a fair number of starts, and he was our fifth scoring option last year. Our best player so far, AG, was the last guy off the bench in last year. Did he even start a game last year? Did Marshall? Maybe a few for Matt (maybe not)?

This whole team will be a development project. Ingram will be fine. But his launch is hampered by a lack of an established returning framework from which to launch.

Color me "not worried" at all.

Edouble
11-23-2015, 09:35 PM
Not responding to anyone in particular, but really curious about the hand-wringing after four games. The biggest issue is not his play, or anyone's in particular. It is that we don't have established players that let a talented freshman just slip into the line-up. Amile is the only one with a fair number of starts, and he was our fifth scoring option last year. Our best player so far, AG, was the last guy off the bench in last year. Did he even start a game last year? Did Marshall? Maybe a few for Matt (maybe not)?

This whole team will be a development project. Ingram will be fine. But his launch is hampered by a lack of an established returning framework from which to launch.

Color me "not worried" at all.

Are you, eh, drinking on a Monday night? Referring to our best player as "Allen Grayson", a la Doris Burke?

You don't remember that Matt started last year? Once Winslow got healthy, he slid to the 4 and Matt was inserted into the starting five.

No disrepect, but I am genuinely surprised as these memory lapses from such an active and respected poster! :confused::eek:

OldPhiKap
11-23-2015, 10:07 PM
Are you, eh, drinking on a Monday night? Referring to our best player as "Allen Grayson", a la Doris Burke?

You don't remember that Matt started last year? Once Winslow got healthy, he slid to the 4 and Matt was inserted into the starting five.

No disrepect, but I am genuinely surprised as these memory lapses from such an active and respected poster! :confused::eek:

Okay, he started 14 of 39 games (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=209273483) last year. A little over a third of the games. 14 games in total through his career before this season. His career high was 34 minutes in a game against SDSt. in the tourney. Not the experience of a returning Quinn Cook for example, let alone the prior teams when we often brought in just one frost into the line-up.

My point was not to diss Matt obviously. It is that Ingram is playing on the least-experienced team (minute-wise) since Dawkins came to town. Part of his "struggles" are due to jumping into a team with little experienced leadership and set roles. Easier for Grant to join a team with Bobby and Christian as an extreme example.

It is hard to argue that GA has been out best player so far it seems to me (although I could well argue that Matt, Amile and Marshall have been the standard-bearers so far). Yes, fingers outpaced my autocorrect -- AG = Attorney General in my world, type it more often than I should I guess.

And yes, single malt with A single rock. ymmmmm.

Ingram will be fine. But he is is joining a very inexperienced team. Will be harder for him but good in the long run.


A better measurement than starts to my point -- would love to see how many minutes our four returning players had coming into the season, as opposed to past squads. I am guessing it is a pretty far down the list.

budwom
11-24-2015, 08:50 AM
I'm also a bit perplexed about all the Ingram concern. He has one major problem as I see it: inexperience.
Then he'll play a bunch of games and he won't have that problem.

There are going to be quite a few ups and downs this year, but I'm expecting a general upward trajectory for the team
as a whole and for Ingram as well. Patience, grasshoppers!

Henderson
11-24-2015, 09:28 AM
Ingram will be fine. But he is is joining a very inexperienced team. Will be harder for him but good in the long run.



I'm also a bit perplexed about all the Ingram concern. He has one major problem as I see it: inexperience.
Then he'll play a bunch of games and he won't have that problem. * * * Patience, grasshoppers!

I agree with these points of view. Sometimes a person learns best by just playing. Sometimes a person learns best by watching. Sometimes a person learns best by watching film. Brandon Ingram is experiencing all three, all part of Coach K's March/April strategy for him I'm sure.

One of the many things I've come to appreciate about K is his ability to figure out how best to develop a player, rather than using a cookie-cutter approach.

Just watch how Brandon plays late in the season, and judge his impact then, not now. I predict you'll be pleased.

P.S. Having worked in state government for years, I still find it hard to type "GA", which to me represents Gilbert-Adams. But "AG" rolls of the fingertips so naturally as OPK explained well, so it requires some focus to type "GA" in reference to Grayson. I hope people will forgive Doris, OPK, and the rest of us with this malady.

Indoor66
11-24-2015, 09:36 AM
I agree with these points of view. Sometimes a person learns best by just playing. Sometimes a person learns best by watching. Sometimes a person learns best by watching film. Brandon Ingram is experiencing all three, all part of Coach K's March/April strategy for him I'm sure.

One of the many things I've come to appreciate about K is his ability to figure out how best to develop a player, rather than using a cookie-cutter approach.

Just watch how Brandon plays late in the season, and judge his impact then, not now. I predict you'll be pleased.

P.S. Having worked in state government for years, I still find it hard to type "GA", which to me represents Gilbert-Adams. But "AG" rolls of the fingertips so naturally as OPK explained well, so it requires some focus to type "GA" in reference to Grayson. I hope people will forgive Doris, OPK, and the rest of us with this malady.

Isn't the highlighted the Roy Williams approach? :confused::cool:

Neals384
11-24-2015, 10:00 AM
To the posters like DeBlueDevil, weezie, and MChambers who called me out for this thread being ridiculous or a waste of time, I'll point out that I have gotten comments like those multiple times about lineup moves in the past. Moves that I have suggested ahead of time that were eventually made by Coach K.

During the 2008-2009 season, I was one of the few posters on this board who called for making Jon Scheyer the team's point guard and giving Elliot Williams more minutes and moving him into the starting lineup. In fact, I was one of the first posters on the DBR message board - if not the very first poster - to recommend sliding Jon Scheyer over to PG (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14233-MBB-Clemson-74-Duke-47-Post-Game-Thread&p=253653#post253653). I made the suggestion following what was perhaps Duke's worst loss in the Coach K era against Clemson that season, and I immediately went to war with several posters who thought my idea wouldn't work or wouldn't happen. Including some similar comments to those in this thread from weezie and MChambers.

I also butted heads with Jumbo, a well-respected poster who was one of the most prolific posters on this site at the time who has since disappeared, throughout much of that season over Coach K's usage of Elliot Williams. Duke's season that year was turned around when Coach K moved Jon Scheyer to PG and inserted Elliot Williams into the starting lineup, another move which I specifically called ahead of time (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14466-MBB-Duke-Boston-College-postgame-thread&p=259199#post259199), against St. John's. I called for it for the very game (St. John's) that Coach K wound up making the Scheyer/Williams moves, actually. Here's another post where I explained why the move made sense (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14233-MBB-Clemson-74-Duke-47-Post-Game-Thread&p=253773#post253773) when multiple posters were disagreeing with me.

My best post on DBR in the 12+ years that I've been posting here was my case for using Jon Scheyer as the team's PG (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14566-the-case-for-continuing-to-use-Jon-Scheyer-at-the-point&p=261240#post261240). DeBlueDevil's sarcastic comment about me thinking I know more than Coach K reminded me of another post made in those days sarcastically dismissing my suggestion of making Scheyer the team's PG (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?14233-MBB-Clemson-74-Duke-47-Post-Game-Thread&p=253682#post253682). I wound up in a heated disagreement with that poster (who still posts here) over the course of multiple threads, but I feel I debated my opinions effectively and in a civil manner.

I'm not always going to be right about my suggestions, and I've been wrong many times before, but when I make a starting lineup suggestion or playing time suggestions, I'm making those assertions based on a solid understanding of the game of basketball, extensive experience watching Duke teams in the past, and statistics.

Brandon Ingram could very easily have his breakout game today against Georgetown, score 25 points with a versatile line doing it all to lead us to a big win, and start the rest of the way. I hope that winds up happening! All I'm saying is that based on his play thus far, and especially if he continues to struggle, I think the best move for him and for the team is to bring him off the bench - just for a few games. But I could be wrong, and I will be happy for him and for the team if I am. Either way, getting some criticism from a few posters isn't going to discourage me from making the suggestion and discussing it with fellow Duke fans.

Hi, Oriole,

When you're the smartest person in the room, it's best to be a bit subtle and extremely tactful when reminding everyone "I told you so." It took me many years to figure this out. And many more years to realize I wasn't really the smartest person in the world.

flyingdutchdevil
11-24-2015, 11:11 AM
Hi, Oriole,

When you're the smartest person in the room, it's best to be a bit subtle and extremely tactful when reminding everyone "I told you so." It took me many years to figure this out. And many more years to realize I wasn't really the smartest person in the world.

Oriole Way was getting attacked left, right, and center despite a) bringing an interesting proposal, b) bringing evidence, and c) being respectful or the players and the coaches. And yet, a lot of posters - including ones with plenty of pitchforks - dismissed the idea in a very harsh, obnoxious, and disrespectful way. And Oriole Way wrote that post above before Sunday's game.

What is sad is that Oriole Way hasn't posted since that post, and I will stand up and say that his opinion should be highly valued on this board, even if the posts on this thread don't show that.

kAzE
11-24-2015, 11:51 AM
I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. Ingram is not playing well right now, and we need to play the 5 guys that give us the best chance to win each game. This is not the collegiate developmental league. This is about getting Ws. He should come off the bench until he begins to show improvement. We appear to be having more success with Thornton taking on a larger offensive load, and it's not justifiable to bench any of the veterans from last year's team right now. Ingram will have his time. He just needs to progress at his own pace.

MChambers
11-24-2015, 11:56 AM
Oriole Way was getting attacked left, right, and center despite a) bringing an interesting proposal, b) bringing evidence, and c) being respectful or the players and the coaches. And yet, a lot of posters - including ones with plenty of pitchforks - dismissed the idea in a very harsh, obnoxious, and disrespectful way. And Oriole Way wrote that post above before Sunday's game.

What is sad is that Oriole Way hasn't posted since that post, and I will stand up and say that his opinion should be highly valued on this board, even if the posts on this thread don't show that.
As one with a few pitchforks who dismissed the thread, let me say that I probably overreacted a bit to the horrible title of the thread and was somewhat obnoxious regarding the thread (but didn't attack any poster). But the title of the thread was indefensible. If the thread had been titled, should "Ingram's playing time be reduced?", I doubt I would have had such a negative reaction.

And some of the subsequent posts started theorizing about Ingram's mental outlook, which I don't think can be observed from the stands or one's couch. For example, one poster said that Ingram needed to show a "sense of urgency". I don't know what that means or how we can know if a player has it. That's a pet peeve for me, in all sports.

If all the thread was about was whether Ingram should come off the bench, that's fine, but to me that's not really worthy of discussion here. The coaches know far more about the factors involved in making that determination. They see how the player is practicing, for one thing. They also know far more about the player's mindset. Plus, the Duke coaching staff has had many wonderful players come off the bench, notwithstanding their obvious talent, including many who became All-Americans and lottery picks. It's not like doing this is a big deal.

devildeac
11-24-2015, 12:41 PM
I agree with these points of view. Sometimes a person learns best by just playing. Sometimes a person learns best by watching. Sometimes a person learns best by watching film. Brandon Ingram is experiencing all three, all part of Coach K's March/April strategy for him I'm sure.

One of the many things I've come to appreciate about K is his ability to figure out how best to develop a player, rather than using a cookie-cutter approach.

Just watch how Brandon plays late in the season, and judge his impact then, not now. I predict you'll be pleased.

P.S. Having worked in state government for years, I still find it hard to type "GA", which to me represents Gilbert-Adams. But "AG" rolls of the fingertips so naturally as OPK explained well, so it requires some focus to type "GA" in reference to Grayson. I hope people will forgive Doris, OPK, and the rest of us with this malady.

Hell, I think about GA as the state where Augusta and Atlanta are located:o.

devildeac
11-24-2015, 01:17 PM
Hell, I think about GA as the state where Augusta and Atlanta are located:o.

And, of course, everyone knows to where the Devil went down;).

OldPhiKap
11-24-2015, 01:20 PM
And, of course, everyone knows to where the Devil went down;).

(the Devil's solo was better. Just sayin')

Oriole Way
11-24-2015, 02:14 PM
Hi, Oriole,

When you're the smartest person in the room, it's best to be a bit subtle and extremely tactful when reminding everyone "I told you so." It took me many years to figure this out. And many more years to realize I wasn't really the smartest person in the world.

Thanks for your advice, but I'll continue using an approach which has served me well over the years. As flyingdutchdevil pointed out (thank you, fdd, by the way), I was simply defending myself against low blows and criticism that I felt originated from a mindset that didn't know about my posting history here.

I know I'm not the smartest person in the room. Even a simpleton should know that a group of posters that include many Duke alums will feature many more intelligent people than him or herself.

Oriole Way
11-24-2015, 02:23 PM
As one with a few pitchforks who dismissed the thread, let me say that I probably overreacted a bit to the horrible title of the thread and was somewhat obnoxious regarding the thread (but didn't attack any poster). But the title of the thread was indefensible. If the thread had been titled, should "Ingram's playing time be reduced?", I doubt I would have had such a negative reaction.

And some of the subsequent posts started theorizing about Ingram's mental outlook, which I don't think can be observed from the stands or one's couch. For example, one poster said that Ingram needed to show a "sense of urgency". I don't know what that means or how we can know if a player has it. That's a pet peeve for me, in all sports.

If all the thread was about was whether Ingram should come off the bench, that's fine, but to me that's not really worthy of discussion here. The coaches know far more about the factors involved in making that determination. They see how the player is practicing, for one thing. They also know far more about the player's mindset. Plus, the Duke coaching staff has had many wonderful players come off the bench, notwithstanding their obvious talent, including many who became All-Americans and lottery picks. It's not like doing this is a big deal.

One of the reasons I stopped posting here over the past few years (and now primarily post on the Scout board) is because of thinking like this. In my honest opinion, you stating that the original title of this thread was "horrible" is, in and of itself, absurd. It was a thread title describing EXACTLY what the subject of my post was. That is an objective fact. I presented what I felt was a reasonable and interesting argument for bringing Ingram off the bench. For you to dismiss my post, get offended by the title, see Coach K independently make the exact move I was suggesting in my post, and then continue to criticize the title of the post is quite surprising, for lack of a more pointed word.

Listen, I know players, alumni players, recruits, their families, etc. read this board. But if I'm going to "criticize" a player, it will be in an educated, responsible, and civil manner backed up by statistics and tangible video evidence. The original title of the thread was not only in my opinion defensible, it was perfectly reasonable.

You won't find many more passionate Duke fans than me. I feel I have some interesting viewpoints to share occasionally. But the overly sensitive nature of many board moderators and regular posters, and the heavy-handed approach by some moderators towards censoring opinions which don't toe what is an overly effusive pro-Duke "company line", are weaknesses of this board. They are the main reasons for why I post here much less than I'd like to.

This will be the last meta-post I'll make about this board in general. I'll ignore all the criticism from now on; I've stated my case.

Everything from me in this thread from now on will be specifically about Ingram - a talented player who I have extremely high hopes for the rest of the season - and his play.

JPtheGame
11-24-2015, 03:12 PM
"They need you right now. But when they don't, they'll cast you out, like a leper. See, their morals, their code... it's a bad joke. Dropped at the first sign of trouble. They're only as good as the world allows them to be. I'll show you, when the chips are down, these... these civilized people? They'll eat each other. See, I'm not a monster, I'm just ahead of the curve."

Everyone should go read how happy we were on the day that Ingram committed. Let's try to be at least that happy now that he's here and we get to watch him grow and develop under the best coach in basketball.

Devilwin
11-24-2015, 03:25 PM
(the Devil's solo was better. Just sayin')

Met ole Charlie once at the PTI airport. Was there waiting to pick up the wife from her flight, and Charlie came walking by. I spoke to him, he shook my hand, we wound up talking music for 20 minutes. Super nice guy.

jimsumner
11-24-2015, 03:40 PM
And, of course, everyone knows to where the Devil went down;).

That was on my mind.

fidel
11-24-2015, 04:14 PM
That was on my mind.

Always.

devildeac
11-24-2015, 04:52 PM
That was on my mind.

Hopefully, not on a Rainy Night...

;)

dball
11-24-2015, 05:02 PM
In my honest opinion, you stating that the original title of this thread was "horrible" is, in and of itself, absurd. It was a thread title describing EXACTLY what the subject of my post was

Not to go all Princess Bride on it, but not sure the title said EXACTLY what you meant based on your entire post. Generally, when a player is benched, it means he or she does not play. They are removed from participation. This, of course, is different from not starting or coming off the bench. So, based on the body of your post, "Should Brandon come off the bench" might have more accurately stated a synopsis of your argument.

Players are most typically benched for violations of team rules (Joe was late for practice and was benched for the first half) but nonperformance is possible (the manager benched Joe since he wasn't hitting).

Being on the bench at the beginning of play is different from being benched which indicates the player will be held out of participation.

Pghdukie
11-24-2015, 05:13 PM
See Manziel,Johnny Football.

Furniture
11-24-2015, 05:38 PM
Here is my 2cents.
I didn't like the title of the thread either and as somebody else said it set the tone and give's off a punishment vibe straight away. Also, to be honest there other things in the post which I wonder if they are in the spirit of what DBR is supposed to be.
For instance:

Ingram has been horribly inefficient over 4 games. He's shooting under 40% from the field, under 30% from 3, and under 60% on free throws. Negative assist to turnover ratio. Averaging 2.5 fouls per 24 minutes which is fairly high. Allen got benched for one bad game and rebounded. But Grayson has been sensational in his other games. He rebounded from the worst performance of his career with one of his best. Ingram had a particularly poor game against Kentucky in which he was plagued by foul trouble. But unlike Grayson, Brandon's level of performance in the other 3 games has been mediocre at best.

Ingram is likely a few weeks or longer from getting up to speed and having the light come on for him. I'd love to see him breakout against Georgetown, but it's not an easy matchup for him or for Duke in general. Starting spots must be earned, and Ingram doesn't deserve it right now. I'll be interested to see if Coach K makes a move with him any time soon if he continues to struggle.

In the Decorum and posting guidelines it states that you can't be destructively Negative. Its a thoughtful post in many way and the title and some of these comments on their own is one thing but summed up may have poked the bear…..No offense..

uh_no
11-24-2015, 05:48 PM
Negative assist to turnover ratio.

Well, when you're so bad that you have negative assists, I'm not sure how you can be positive on a guy!

Or maybe he has negative turnovers!

yale sounds like a perfect team against whom to break out

luvdahops
11-24-2015, 06:09 PM
A lot of fair points, but I would say that based on what I have seen, defense in club/AAU ball - even among the elite teams - is nowhere near what you see in college, or even among highly competitive high schools (I will admit that my perspective may be skewed from living in Metro Chicago, where the HS competition is fierce and, btw, plenty of D-1 coaches/assistant coaches frequently attend games). And I think that is what Brandon is struggling with most. He is no longer an automatic mismatch with whomever is guarding him. And not just against Kentucky. Georgetown had a lot of athletic, mobile guys in the 6-7 to 6-9 range, too.

My memory may be faulty, but didn't Brandon's rankings among the Class of 2015 shoot up a bit just based on the all-star games and Hoops Summit (i.e. from the 10-15 range to top 5)? Maybe that was an overcorrection of sorts? Brick Oettinger was an outlier in ranking him at #17, but maybe that was just based on a longer term view (from a NC native).

Answering my own question here, but per the RSCI website, Brandon went from #18 in the Post-Summer 2014 rankings (October 2014; composite of 24/12/26/18/20/11) to #4 in the Class of 2015 Final rankings (May 2015; composite of 14/3/3/4/2/3). This was presumably a reflection of his play in All-Star games and the Hoop Summit, as well as his senior season in HS ball.

Whatever the main drivers may have been, this trajectory is distinctly different from that of Jah, Jabari, Austin and Kyrie (and arguably Tyus), all of whom had been rated in the top handful of players in their class for several years. Which is a long-winded way of saying that it may be unrealistic to expect the same sort of immediate stardom for Brandon. Note that I do fully expect that he will wind up a starter, key contributor at both ends and likely top 2-3 scorer for us over the course of the full season. And a lottery pick in the 2016 Draft. But his path there will probably be bumpier that what we have been conditioned to expect (spolied!) from our sure-fire OADs.

COYS
11-24-2015, 06:29 PM
Answering my own question here, but per the RSCI website, Brandon went from #18 in the Post-Summer 2014 rankings (October 2014; composite of 24/12/26/18/20/11) to #4 in the Class of 2015 Final rankings (May 2015; composite of 14/3/3/4/2/3). This was presumably a reflection of his play in All-Star games and the Hoop Summit, as well as his senior season in HS ball.

Whatever the main drivers may have been, this trajectory is distinctly different from that of Jah, Jabari, Austin and Kyrie (and arguably Tyus), all of whom had been rated in the top handful of players in their class for several years. Which is a long-winded way of saying that it may be unrealistic to expect the same sort of immediate stardom for Brandon. Note that I do fully expect that he will wind up a starter, key contributor at both ends and likely top 2-3 scorer for us over the course of the full season. And a lottery pick in the 2016 Draft. But his path there will probably be bumpier that what we have been conditioned to expect (spolied!) from our sure-fire OADs.

Not that this negates your point, exactly, but Kyrie actually jumped up the rankings relatively late, too, although not quite as late as Brandon. Originally it was Brandon Knight who was regarded as the prize point guard of the class of 2010. The Duke staff actually backed off of Knight and zeroed in on Kyrie before the rankings reflected how much Kyrie had come on as a prospect. In fact, I think prospects that shoot up the rankings late are sometimes underrated. I mean, Kyrie should have actually been number 1 in 2010 but no recruiting service was willing to go so far as to unseat the Pigeon.

Henderson
11-24-2015, 06:33 PM
Whatever the main drivers may have been, this trajectory is distinctly different from that of Jah, Jabari, Austin and Kyrie (and arguably Tyus), all of whom had been rated in the top handful of players in their class for several years. Which is a long-winded way of saying that it may be unrealistic to expect the same sort of immediate stardom for Brandon.

Well, the examples you cited were drafted 3rd, 2nd, 10th and 1st in their respective drafts. Not bad. Even if his trajectory ends up at a lower level than that of Jah, Jabari, Rivers, and Kyrie, there's still a lot of room for a lottery pick and a long successful NBA career.

It's OK to bloom late, and BI doesn't look to me like a guy who's likely not to bloom. I think K is setting him up for 2016, not worrying much about 2015. And I'd wager he won't disappoint.

OldPhiKap
11-24-2015, 06:59 PM
Hopefully, not on a Rainy Night...

;)

... On a midnight train ...


(Or for BJS fans, ... "on a fast train, honey")

JNort
11-24-2015, 07:01 PM
One of the reasons I stopped posting here over the past few years (and now primarily post on the Scout board) is because of thinking like this. In my honest opinion, you stating that the original title of this thread was "horrible" is, in and of itself, absurd. It was a thread title describing EXACTLY what the subject of my post was. That is an objective fact. I presented what I felt was a reasonable and interesting argument for bringing Ingram off the bench. For you to dismiss my post, get offended by the title, see Coach K independently make the exact move I was suggesting in my post, and then continue to criticize the title of the post is quite surprising, for lack of a more pointed word.

Listen, I know players, alumni players, recruits, their families, etc. read this board. But if I'm going to "criticize" a player, it will be in an educated, responsible, and civil manner backed up by statistics and tangible video evidence. The original title of the thread was not only in my opinion defensible, it was perfectly reasonable.

You won't find many more passionate Duke fans than me. I feel I have some interesting viewpoints to share occasionally. But the overly sensitive nature of many board moderators and regular posters, and the heavy-handed approach by some moderators towards censoring opinions which don't toe what is an overly effusive pro-Duke "company line", are weaknesses of this board. They are the main reasons for why I post here much less than I'd like to.

This will be the last meta-post I'll make about this board in general. I'll ignore all the criticism from now on; I've stated my case.

Everything from me in this thread from now on will be specifically about Ingram - a talented player who I have extremely high hopes for the rest of the season - and his play.

My thoughts as well. I've been using this board for ohh idk I guess around 6 years and those points have always stood true. Too many sensitive people on this site, however it is the most well spoken site.

Didn't have a problem with the title to the thread either. Most people knew upon reading the title that it meant play coming off the bench. Some just like a good argument

Bay Area Duke Fan
11-24-2015, 07:15 PM
Ingram is likely a few weeks or longer from getting up to speed and having the light come on for him. I'd love to see him breakout against Georgetown, but it's not an easy matchup for him or for Duke in general. Starting spots must be earned, and Ingram doesn't deserve it right now. I'll be interested to see if Coach K makes a move with him any time soon if he continues to struggle.

It's a bit too late for that.

Furniture
11-24-2015, 07:39 PM
It's a bit too late for that.

Sorry the confusion. I was quoting the OP....

lotusland
11-24-2015, 08:36 PM
Hopefully, not on a Rainy Night...

;)

I'd take a fast train...leaving at at midnight.

rocketeli
11-24-2015, 08:38 PM
My thoughts as well. I've been using this board for ohh idk I guess around 6 years and those points have always stood true. Too many sensitive people on this site, however it is the most well spoken site.

Didn't have a problem with the title to the thread either. Most people knew upon reading the title that it meant play coming off the bench. Some just like a good argument

This. the DBR board is mostly a great forum, and one of the few sports boards where you can read intelligent comments. However, there sometimes pop up a minority of posters that need to learn the critical difference between saying "I find X offensive" and "X is offensive." The first is a rationale, legitimate way of sharing a concern, one that you are implicitly acknowledging is based on your own background, experiences, ethnicity, etc, and might not be shared by everyone else, and the other is declaring yourself the moral dictator of the Internet and implying that other peoples values are irrelevant.

lotusland
11-24-2015, 08:47 PM
This. the DBR board is mostly a great forum, and one of the few sports boards where you can read intelligent comments. However, there sometimes pop up a minority of posters that need to learn the critical difference between saying "I find X offensive" and "X is offensive." The first is a rationale, legitimate way of sharing a concern, one that you are implicitly acknowledging is based on your own background, experiences, ethnicity, etc, and might not be shared by everyone else, and the other is declaring yourself the moral dictator of the Internet and implying that other peoples values are irrelevant.

Well said. I've never understood why the folks with delicate sensibilities get to decide what is offensive. Be offended if you must but wouldn't you be happier if you just toughened up a bit?

Furniture
11-24-2015, 11:22 PM
You can call me a wanker anytime you like I will not get offended. I thought that one of the main things on this site was not to over criticize the players. They may read this??. So THIS discussion wasn't so much about being over sensitive to any poster but to Brandon himself.
Anyway. Enough is enough....

sagegrouse
11-25-2015, 12:18 AM
Well said. I've never understood why the folks with delicate sensibilities get to decide what is offensive. Be offended if you must but wouldn't you be happier if you just toughened up a bit?

I would like the Board here to be a conversation, not an argument. And from time to time I have urged posters to to tone down their remarks and subtract some certitude from their positions -- even when they are right or, perhaps, ESPECIALLY when they are right. As I have learned from my own posts over the past ten or so years, it is hard to do.

The cost of a shrillness of tone is that, over time, we may lose valuable posters from the Board, and, in fact, that has occurred. It doesn't have to happen -- almost everyone who posts here is quite intelligent and can express opinions politely and respectfully.

All the best,
Sage Grouse

oldnavy
11-25-2015, 06:43 AM
You can call me a wanker anytime you like I will not get offended. I thought that one of the main things on this site was not to over criticize the players. They may read this??. So THIS discussion wasn't so much about being over sensitive to any poster but to Brandon himself.
Anyway. Enough is enough...

Well if Brandon is offended or concerned over what is said on a fan board, he has bigger issues that he needs to deal with than his BB game..... just saying!

Henderson
11-25-2015, 10:38 AM
Well if Brandon is offended or concerned over what is said on a fan board, he has bigger issues that he needs to deal with than his BB game... just saying!

Yes. The same applies to coaches too. In all sports.

But even more so, because coaches are grownups and should be able to take a critical internet post without being mollycoddled to protect them from Duke fan critiques.

Bob Green
11-25-2015, 10:52 AM
I'd take a fast train...

Gimme a ticket for an aeroplane
Ain't got time to take a fast train

devildeac
11-25-2015, 11:09 AM
Gimme a ticket for an aeroplane
Ain't got time to take a fast train

I'll bet you've been saving your Box Tops for a long time to redeem that one, Bob...

OldPhiKap
11-25-2015, 11:32 AM
Gimme a ticket for an aeroplane
Ain't got time to take a fast train


I'll bet you've been saving your Box Tops for a long time to redeem that one, Bob...

As long as he doesn't get too Cock(er)y, I'll cover the mail for him.

JNort
11-25-2015, 01:23 PM
You can call me a wanker anytime you like I will not get offended. I thought that one of the main things on this site was not to over criticize the players. They may read this??. So THIS discussion wasn't so much about being over sensitive to any poster but to Brandon himself.
Anyway. Enough is enough...
It's fine imo to criticize and debate their game just as long as nobody criticizes them in a more personal manner. We can all see how they perform on the court so we should therefore be able to draw conclusions about their abilities there. Calling a player lazy or stupid or whatever else would be uncalled for.

DeBlueDevil
12-03-2015, 10:41 AM
:rolleyes:

NSDukeFan
02-15-2016, 06:44 AM
I think Ingram should continue to start even if Amile comes back at full strength.

phaedrus
02-15-2016, 11:55 AM
I think Ingram should continue to start even if Amile comes back at full strength.

Bold suggestion.

On another note, I haven't seen much discussion of how BI stacks up against the Duke freshmen of antiquity. In the last two seasons, we saw two freshmen have historically great freshman seasons, and they now rank 1-2 all-time in both points and rebounds among Duke freshmen. Prior to the season, the general view was that Ingram, while very talented, came from a weaker recruiting class and was likely to struggle a little more than Okafor and Parker. After 25 games, I think Ingram stacks up very favorably with those two. He is averaging 17.2 ppg, almost identical to Okafor's average. As long as Duke plays 10 or so more games (we have six regular season games remaining), he is likely to become the third Duke freshman to crack 600 points. He is shooting better from three than J.J. Redick as a freshman. He also averages 6.7 rebounds per game and 1.5 blocks per game, the latter of which beats Parker's and Okafor's averages, and puts him within spitting distance of #2 all-time among freshmen. It's safe to say he is, overall, a far superior defender to Okafor or Parker.

In short, Ingram has exceeded high expectations, and I think he's already having a top-5 season among all-time Duke freshmen. If he finishes the season well, there will be an argument that his was the best.

uh_no
02-15-2016, 12:06 PM
I think Ingram should continue to start even if Amile comes back at full strength.

not sure if you're being sarcastic...but isn't this a "duhh" given ingram's usage?

K starts his 5 best players...almost always....and if Ingram isn't one of the 5 best players on this team, even with amile, then I'm not uh_no.

Ingram is clear and away the second most used player on the offensive side of the floor, behind grayson.

Grayson:
.88*.25 = 22% of all possessions used
Ingram:
.82*.24=20% of all possessions

The rest:
Luke: 12%
Matt: 14%
DT: 12%
MP: 10%

Should he come back, I think either
1) amile comes off the bench to allow guys like derryck and matt, who have earned their roles on the floor to continue to be rewarded, while allowing us to get amile out there as soon as the situation calls

2) Matt loses his job. I was waffling with whether it would be matt or derryck, but I went with matt for two reasons. First, i don't think grayson would be able to guard the PG nearly as effectively as derryck...and the defense has been on fire of late. Second, brandon sliding to the 3 is matt's position...On the flip side, grayson is statistically our PG whenever he is on the floor. The offense would still probably run, and the defense would be accounted for by having mr 2 dollar bill helping on the interior.

kAzE
02-15-2016, 12:21 PM
I think Amile comes off the bench when he makes his return. What happens after that is up to match ups. Grayson and Brandon are the 2 best players, and I don't think Matt comes off the bench, since he's always guarding the other team's best player, so it's either Derryck or Marshall who will take a seat if Amile makes a strong case that's ready to return to the starting lineup.

I advocated this starting lineup before the season began: Amile, Brandon, Matt, Grayson, Derryck. I think this is potentially our quickest lineup, with the ability to emulate a homeless man's version of the Golden State Warriors. 5 very mobile and offensively skilled guys who can all score, pass, and make plays. (If only Amile could shoot 3s)

However, Marshall has really proven himself a capable starter. I believed in his size and athletic ability from the start, but never thought he could sustain such heavy minutes. His size has certainly been a huge factor in our turnaround defensively over the last 4 games. Not sure how he gets benched, either. It'll be a tough call, but it all depends on how ready Amile is.

oldnavy
02-15-2016, 12:22 PM
not sure if you're being sarcastic...but isn't this a "duhh" given ingram's usage?

K starts his 5 best players...almost always...and if Ingram isn't one of the 5 best players on this team, even with amile, then I'm not uh_no.

Ingram is clear and away the second most used player on the offensive side of the floor, behind grayson.

Grayson:
.88*.25 = 22% of all possessions used
Ingram:
.82*.24=20% of all possessions

The rest:
Luke: 12%
Matt: 14%
DT: 12%
MP: 10%

Should he come back, I think either
1) amile comes off the bench to allow guys like derryck and matt, who have earned their roles on the floor to continue to be rewarded, while allowing us to get amile out there as soon as the situation calls

2) Matt loses his job. I was waffling with whether it would be matt or derryck, but I went with matt for two reasons. First, i don't think grayson would be able to guard the PG nearly as effectively as derryck...and the defense has been on fire of late. Second, brandon sliding to the 3 is matt's position...On the flip side, grayson is statistically our PG whenever he is on the floor. The offense would still probably run, and the defense would be accounted for by having mr 2 dollar bill helping on the interior.

I think the answer at least in the short run is 1). Amile probably will not be ready for starter's minutes for a while after he gets back to full speed. I doubt he is doing anything that can simulate game speed for his endurance.

killerleft
02-15-2016, 01:50 PM
At a time when a lot of freshmen have hit the mythical 'wall', Brandon seems to have found another gear. If Duke is going far in the postseason, he may have to find even another one. Defensive rebounding seems to be a special thing with him. Is there a way to keep him near the basket? And still allow the team to play great team defense, too?

If only we had one more Ingram!:) A healthy Amile would work, too.

oldnavy
02-15-2016, 02:09 PM
At a time when a lot of freshmen have hit the mythical 'wall', Brandon seems to have found another gear. If Duke is going far in the postseason, he may have to find even another one. Defensive rebounding seems to be a special thing with him. Is there a way to keep him near the basket? And still allow the team to play great team defense, too?

If only we had one more Ingram!:) A healthy Amile would work, too.

I Brandon's wall was the first few weeks of the season. He has really come on.

I was a little skeptical at first, but now I am very impressed with his game!!

The kid flat out kept us alive Saturday. Without him we would have never got back into that game!

MChambers
02-15-2016, 05:01 PM
Bold suggestion.

On another note, I haven't seen much discussion of how BI stacks up against the Duke freshmen of antiquity. In the last two seasons, we saw two freshmen have historically great freshman seasons, and they now rank 1-2 all-time in both points and rebounds among Duke freshmen. Prior to the season, the general view was that Ingram, while very talented, came from a weaker recruiting class and was likely to struggle a little more than Okafor and Parker. After 25 games, I think Ingram stacks up very favorably with those two. He is averaging 17.2 ppg, almost identical to Okafor's average. As long as Duke plays 10 or so more games (we have six regular season games remaining), he is likely to become the third Duke freshman to crack 600 points. He is shooting better from three than J.J. Redick as a freshman. He also averages 6.7 rebounds per game and 1.5 blocks per game, the latter of which beats Parker's and Okafor's averages, and puts him within spitting distance of #2 all-time among freshmen. It's safe to say he is, overall, a far superior defender to Okafor or Parker.

In short, Ingram has exceeded high expectations, and I think he's already having a top-5 season among all-time Duke freshmen. If he finishes the season well, there will be an argument that his was the best.

Watching Saturday's game, I was thinking that he's better as a freshman than any of last year's Duke freshmen, and they were darned good. Brandon is just amazing. I don't know if anyone in college ball can match up with him.

TruBlu
02-15-2016, 05:02 PM
At a time when a lot of freshmen have hit the mythical 'wall', Brandon seems to have found another gear. If Duke is going far in the postseason, he may have to find even another one. Defensive rebounding seems to be a special thing with him. Is there a way to keep him near the basket? And still allow the team to play great team defense, too?

If only we had one more Ingram!:) A healthy Amile would work, too.

There have been numerous times where he has gotten awesome rebounds when he was not in an ideal rebounding position. His looong arms have gathered rebounds that most other players would have no chance to get.

Early in the season, I thought he may be around for a couple years. Now, all I can say is: "Thanks for the one year, and have a good pro career."

grad_devil
02-15-2016, 05:22 PM
Watching Saturday's game, I was thinking that he's better as a freshman than any of last year's Duke freshmen, and they were darned good. Brandon is just amazing. I don't know if anyone in college ball can match up with him. (emphasis added)

I agree that Brandon is having one heckuva freshman campaign, but the bold portion above gave me pause. Mr. Okafor - ACC Freshman of the Year AND ACC Player of the Year - says hello.

MChambers
02-15-2016, 05:27 PM
I agree that Brandon is having one heckuva freshman campaign, but the bold portion above gave me pause. Mr. Okafor - ACC Freshman of the Year AND ACC Player of the Year - says hello.
You raise a good point, because Jahlil was wonderful last year. I'd still pick Ingram, but it's close. And I certainly understand if others disagree.

kAzE
02-15-2016, 05:27 PM
I agree that Brandon is having one heckuva freshman campaign, but the bold portion above gave me pause. Mr. Okafor - ACC Freshman of the Year AND ACC Player of the Year - says hello.

Um . . . and Tyus Jones, who almost single handedly won us both games vs Wisconsin down the stretch and hit the game winner in the Virginia game on the road that sparked the run that led to a championship.

Oh, and he was the MOP of the Final Four.

By the way, Justise Winslow was pretty good too. Probably the #1 reason we were a dominant defensive team the latter part of the year.

All 4 of those guys are pretty much on the same level to me. Brandon is fantastic, but you can't possibly say he's better than any of those 3 guys from last year. He's certainly been asked to do more and play more minutes. None of those guys from last year played this many minutes, so per game averages don't mean as much.

Thus far this year, Grayson had inherited the closer role from Tyus. Brandon still hasn't made much of an impact offensively in crunch time (though given ample opportunity). I just don't think we will see another freshman with stones like Tyus for a LOOOOOOONG time. The guy was just a cold blooded assassin with the game on the line.

uh_no
02-15-2016, 06:00 PM
Um . . . and Tyus Jones, who almost single handedly won us both games vs Wisconsin down the stretch

Grayson allen says hi

once we were down by 9...the scoring went:
grayson 3pts
grayson 2+1
grayson 2 fts
tyus 2+1
justice 2 fts
tyus 2
grayson 2
tyus 3
JO 2
JO 2
tyus 3
tyus 2 fts

so totals:
grayson 10
tyus 13

did tyus have more points? yeah. but the two free throws at the end could have gone to anyone...

saying he single handedly won it sort of doesn't give credit to the fact that

a) the only reason we were even in the game was grayson's 8 points in 70 seconds.
b) tyus' points were mixed with contributions from everyone else on the
c) grayson's steal/foul/thing

Tyus certainly played a huge role in the win....everyone on the team did. Saying he singlehandedly won it doesn't do justice to the major contributions of others' though.

kAzE
02-15-2016, 06:04 PM
Grayson allen says hi

once we were down by 9...the scoring went:
grayson 3pts
grayson 2+1
grayson 2 fts
tyus 2+1
justice 2 fts
tyus 2
grayson 2
tyus 3
JO 2
JO 2
tyus 3
tyus 2 fts

so totals:
grayson 10
tyus 13

did tyus have more points? yeah. but the two free throws at the end could have gone to anyone...

saying he single handedly won it sort of doesn't give credit to the fact that

a) the only reason we were even in the game was grayson's 8 points in 70 seconds.
b) tyus' points were mixed with contributions from everyone else on the
c) grayson's steal/foul/thing

Tyus certainly played a huge role in the win...everyone on the team did. Saying he singlehandedly won it doesn't do justice to the major contributions of others' though.

Thus, the "almost." Plus, Tyus nailed those 2 free throws. Can't say anyone else other than maybe Quinn could have for sure hit both. But regardless, if you're focusing on 1 guy, then you missed the point of my post. It was not to give credit of the national championship to Tyus Jones, it was to emphasize how good all our freshman last year were.

wavedukefan70s
02-15-2016, 07:11 PM
Our freshmen last year were phenomenal. The freshmen this year are pretty good.;)

NSDukeFan
02-15-2016, 07:20 PM
not sure if you're being sarcastic...but isn't this a "duhh" given ingram's usage?

K starts his 5 best players...almost always...and if Ingram isn't one of the 5 best players on this team, even with amile, then I'm not uh_no.

Ingram is clear and away the second most used player on the offensive side of the floor, behind grayson.

Grayson:
.88*.25 = 22% of all possessions used
Ingram:
.82*.24=20% of all possessions

The rest:
Luke: 12%
Matt: 14%
DT: 12%
MP: 10%

Should he come back, I think either
1) amile comes off the bench to allow guys like derryck and matt, who have earned their roles on the floor to continue to be rewarded, while allowing us to get amile out there as soon as the situation calls

2) Matt loses his job. I was waffling with whether it would be matt or derryck, but I went with matt for two reasons. First, i don't think grayson would be able to guard the PG nearly as effectively as derryck...and the defense has been on fire of late. Second, brandon sliding to the 3 is matt's position...On the flip side, grayson is statistically our PG whenever he is on the floor. The offense would still probably run, and the defense would be accounted for by having mr 2 dollar bill helping on the interior.
Sorry, should have smiley faced or some kind of emoticon to indicate sarcasm. I don't expect there would be many Duke fans legitimately suggesting benching Ingram at this point, which I think this thread was suggesting. Things can change over a couple months.

MChambers
02-15-2016, 08:19 PM
Brandon is fantastic, but you can't possibly say he's better than any of those 3 guys from last year. He's certainly been asked to do more and play more minutes. None of those guys from last year played this many minutes, so per game averages don't mean as much.

I am saying that. Feel free to disagree, but don't say I can't possibly say it. I think he's better individually than Okafor, Jones, or Winslow.

Dukehky
02-15-2016, 08:35 PM
I am saying that. Feel free to disagree, but don't say I can't possibly say it. I think he's better individually than Okafor, Jones, or Winslow.

Brandon may be a better player, only time will tell, but the 3 last year had each other and Quinn to feed off of. Brandon has Grayson and no one else is offensively dependable.

I don't think you can compare it really. The teams are just miles apart in terms of what is around them.

duke4ever19
02-15-2016, 08:48 PM
I am saying that. Feel free to disagree, but don't say I can't possibly say it. I think he's better individually than Okafor, Jones, or Winslow.

I'm with you. Ingram is "super, scintillating, sensational! A diaper dandy, and elevator man, a P.T.P-er, and a danger from the trifecta!

Now, he's no space-eater, but he's true high-riser and knows how to Slam, Bam, Jam!

Wheat/"/"/"
02-15-2016, 08:58 PM
I am saying that. Feel free to disagree, but don't say I can't possibly say it. I think he's better individually than Okafor, Jones, or Winslow.

I agree, and it's not all that close.
As much as I like Okafor's game, if I was starting an NBA expansion team tomorrow, I'd be hard pressed to take anyone before Ingram.
His future is bright.

Pghdukie
02-15-2016, 09:43 PM
There was a player named Jefferson that had alot to do with the overall team growth and development of the freshman last year. I believe that Jeter's play this season would have been much more advanced had AJ been healthy.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 01:12 AM
I agree, and it's not all that close.
As much as I like Okafor's game, if I was starting an NBA expansion team tomorrow, I'd be hard pressed to take anyone before Ingram.
His future is bright.

I still think there's a debate to be had between Justise and Brandon. Don't let recency cloud your judgment. I think Justise has as good a chance as any of our recent super freshman to be a franchise level player. Brandon of course probably has the highest potential due to his freakish athletic ability, but I think it's a coin toss between him and Justise. I also think Justise was our best player for most of the huge winning stretch that we had after the Virginia game, when he got healthy from that nagging shoulder injury. He was arguably (and in my opinion) the best player on the team last year, all things considered. His health was the real catalyst for the huge run we put together after a 6 game stretch where we lost 3 games.

The one thing he's missing from his NBA repertoire is a long range shot. If he can start hitting those with consistency, he'll be an all-star. He's already a top 5 defender in the NBA. With him, the Heat are the #3 defense, and among players to defend at least 50 field goal attempts this season, Justise ranks tied for third in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage (32.8%), up there with Kawhi Leonard (32.8%) and Ricky Rubio (32.8). And he's not out there guarding scrubs. They put him on on the other team's best guy every night. LeBron, Durant, whoever it is, Winslow is guarding those guys. He's a 19 year old defensive savant. If our defense was elite last year (#12 KenPom), it sure as hell wasn't because of Jahlil Okafor or Tyus Jones. It was Matt Jones, Quinn Cook, and Justise Winslow.

Brandon's physical measurements probably give him the higher ceiling (though Justise probably has more muscle in one arm than BI's entire body), but it's still tough to tell who will ultimately be the better player in the long run. Neither of them have really scratched the surface of their potential yet.

lotusland
02-16-2016, 07:01 AM
It's interesting to consider the lineup if Amile did return at full strength. I think Amile gives us a little better defense at the 4 than Ingram but Brandon provides way more offense. I think playing Amile and Marshall together will actually limit Marshall's productivity on offense by clogging the middle. The offense with 4 shooters plus Marshall has been awesome. Lately they've been able to get some stops at key points too. As mentioned, Amile won't come back 100% initially. He would probably get some time at the 4 and 5 with Marshall playing closer to 30 minutes than 40. By the time Amile reaches 100% K will have time to workout the best lineup and rotation. I think time is running out for Amile to return and play at 100% before the season ends. With Giles coming off a a serious injury it would be awesome to have Amile's leadership and rebounding next year. Maybe he could even add that 10- 15 foot jumper to his game.

MChambers
02-16-2016, 08:05 AM
I agree, and it's not all that close.
As much as I like Okafor's game, if I was starting an NBA expansion team tomorrow, I'd be hard pressed to take anyone before Ingram.
His future is bright.

I'm getting that uncomfortable feeling one gets when a UNC fan agrees with him or her. Where'd I go wrong? What's he trying to pull?

Seriously, thanks, Wheat. For an advocate of the low post like you to say Ingram is better is interesting.

dukelifer
02-16-2016, 08:25 AM
I still think there's a debate to be had between Justise and Brandon. Don't let recency cloud your judgment. I think Justise has as good a chance as any of our recent super freshman to be a franchise level player. Brandon of course probably has the highest potential due to his freakish athletic ability, but I think it's a coin toss between him and Justise. I also think Justise was our best player for most of the huge winning stretch that we had after the Virginia game, when he got healthy from that nagging shoulder injury. He was arguably (and in my opinion) the best player on the team last year, all things considered. His health was the real catalyst for the huge run we put together after a 6 game stretch where we lost 3 games.

The one thing he's missing from his NBA repertoire is a long range shot. If he can start hitting those with consistency, he'll be an all-star. He's already a top 5 defender in the NBA. With him, the Heat are the #3 defense, and among players to defend at least 50 field goal attempts this season, Justise ranks tied for third in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage (32.8%), up there with Kawhi Leonard (32.8%) and Ricky Rubio (32.8). And he's not out there guarding scrubs. They put him on on the other team's best guy every night. LeBron, Durant, whoever it is, Winslow is guarding those guys. He's a 19 year old defensive savant. If our defense was elite last year (#12 KenPom), it sure as hell wasn't because of Jahlil Okafor or Tyus Jones. It was Matt Jones, Quinn Cook, and Justise Winslow.

Brandon's physical measurements probably give him the higher ceiling (though Justise probably has more muscle in one arm than BI's entire body), but it's still tough to tell who will ultimately be the better player in the long run. Neither of them have really scratched the surface of their potential yet.

Brandon is a freak athlete - unusual in every respect. Once the strength develops- and it will- he is going to be a top 10 NBA player. Not quite sure if Brandon has that "refuse to lose" gene that the great ones seem to have. Time will tell. Justise is a great athlete who developed physically at 19. I am not sure he will be at that same elite level but he will have a solid and long NBA career.

killerleft
02-16-2016, 08:52 AM
Brandon is as much fun to watch as was the freshman Johnny Dawkins. His potential is up there. Way up there. We may not have seen his best college games yet. If that scrawny body holds out...

Do not presume that Brandon doesn't have a killer instinct, as a couple on this board have done. That is a joke. He shows it a bit differently, that's all.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-16-2016, 09:16 AM
I'm getting that uncomfortable feeling one gets when a UNC fan agrees with him or her. Where'd I go wrong? What's he trying to pull?

Seriously, thanks, Wheat. For an advocate of the low post like you to say Ingram is better is interesting.

I am the guy that believes that the best basketball is played inside out...but I also have a great appreciation for big guys, (any team), who can actually play small. Few can do it like I see in Ingram.

What sets him apart is his length combined with good ball handling. I also like that he has a feel for the nuance of the pace of a game with his dribble. It's rare that big guys have the feel that you often see in the better guards and wings.

He has a nice shot and can finish at the rim. He's also not afraid to get in there and mix it up.

What's not to like?

Sure he needs to get stronger, and for sure he will.

I would not want to be the GM that has to explain someday how I passed up on the next all-star Kevin Durant lite player in the next draft.

PS-Winslow and Okafor are quality NBA players. Nothing against them, but Ingram has the opportunity to be special.

MCFinARL
02-16-2016, 09:40 AM
Brandon is as much fun to watch as was the freshman Johnny Dawkins. His potential is up there. Way up there. We may not have seen his best college games yet. If that scrawny body holds out...

Do not presume that Brandon doesn't have a killer instinct, as a couple on this board have done. That is a joke. He shows it a bit differently, that's all.

Yes, I think people can be fooled by his sleepy-eyed expression into not always seeing the fight in him. The way he has played at the crucial moments of our last few games, especially rounding up key defensive boards, shows a very strong will to win.

Troublemaker
02-16-2016, 09:52 AM
I would not want to be the GM that has to explain someday how I passed up on the next all-star Kevin Durant lite player in the next draft.

But neither do GMs want to explain passing up on "Lebron lite" either. It's funny, but perhaps one aspect of how scouts will evaluate Simmons vs Ingram will be figuring out which of their common comparisons to a top 5 NBA player is the most unrealistic.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 10:17 AM
Brandon is a freak athlete - unusual in every respect. Once the strength develops- and it will- he is going to be a top 10 NBA player. Not quite sure if Brandon has that "refuse to lose" gene that the great ones seem to have. Time will tell. Justise is a great athlete who developed physically at 19. I am not sure he will be at that same elite level but he will have a solid and long NBA career.

What? There's no basis for that assumption. Do you realize how good the top 10 . . . even top 20 players in the NBA are?

Here's a quick top 10 off the top of my head:

1. Curry
2. LeBron
3. Durant
4. Westbrook
5. Davis
6. Kawhi
7. Paul
8. Draymond
9. George
10. Harden

That doesn't even include guys like Kyrie, Klay Thompson, Wall, Cousins, Griffin, Melo, Howard, Marc Gasol, and Drummond, and the young future superstars like Karl Towns. If Brandon is better than any of those guys, he will have destroyed my highest expectations for him.

Just because he kind of looks like Durant does not make him Durant. KD is an ELITE shooter. Extremely accurate off the dribble, and unlimited range. A career 88.2% free throw shooter. Brandon is not that type of shooter. Though he could certainly improve, I don't see him reaching KD's level of shooting prowess. Few ever do. Let's also not forget that KD averaged 11.1 rebounds per game in his 1 season at Texas. Brandon does not rebound the ball at that rate.

Look, I'm not trying to say Brandon has no chance to become a top 10 player, I'm just saying it's not very likely. Players in the NBA are just too damn good. Just let Brandon be Brandon and see what happens. He's a very nice player, but he's got a LONG way to go before being included in any top 10 player discussions. The recency bias is strong with this board.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 10:21 AM
But neither do GMs want to explain passing up on "Lebron lite" either. It's funny, but perhaps one aspect of how scouts will evaluate Simmons vs Ingram will be figuring out which of their common comparisons to a top 5 NBA player is the most unrealistic.

There's no debate . . . the #1 pick is the NBA ready player with a NBA body. Simmons, and it's not close. Brandon is going to start out much slower. Look at how much he struggled to adapt to the physicality of playing division 1 basketball. If money wasn't a factor, another year or even 2 of college would probably be better for his overall development, because his body is just not ready for the NBA grind.

Troublemaker
02-16-2016, 10:30 AM
There's no debate . . . the #1 pick is the NBA ready player with a NBA body. Simmons, and it's not close. Brandon is going to start out much slower. Look at how much he struggled to adapt to the physicality of playing division 1 basketball. If money wasn't a factor, another year or even 2 of college would probably be better for his overall development, because his body is just not ready for the NBA grind.

I don't think immediate impact ranks that highly on a GM's list, though. If Simmons is better in Year 1 and Year 2, but Ingram -- once his body fills out a bit -- is better starting Year 3, every GM would take Brandon.

The decision will hinge on whether the team drafting #1 thinks Simmons can develop a jumpshot or not. If Simmons finds a reliable jumpshot one day, he very likely will be the better player than Brandon and a top 10 player overall. But if not, Brandon has a good chance of being better.

flyingdutchdevil
02-16-2016, 10:31 AM
But neither do GMs want to explain passing up on "Lebron lite" either. It's funny, but perhaps one aspect of how scouts will evaluate Simmons vs Ingram will be figuring out which of their common comparisons to a top 5 NBA player is the most unrealistic.

This is a 2-man draft. Ingram and Simmons are, without question, the top two players, and whoever gets the third pick is gonna be pissed (probably the 76ers). Nbadraft.net has a Euro dude at 3, Kris Dunn at 4, and Buddy Hield at 5. Dunn and Hield are awesome college players, but they would probably be two of the weakest 4 and 5 picks in a loooooooong time.

And my two cents on Duke players in the last 5-6 years? Ingram has the opportunity to be the best (even more impactful than Kyrie), and I'd take him in a heartbeat over Okafor or Winslow. Okafor is all offense right now and Winslow is all defense. I hope they balance out in their careers. Ingram? He's shown insane potential on both sides of the ball, which is very unique (like Anthony Davis).

dukelifer
02-16-2016, 10:34 AM
What? There's no basis for that assumption. Do you realize how good the top 10 . . . even top 20 players in the NBA are?

Here's a quick top 10 off the top of my head:

1. Curry
2. LeBron
3. Durant
4. Westbrook
5. Davis
6. Kawhi
7. Paul
8. Draymond
9. George
10. Harden

That doesn't even include guys like Kyrie, Klay Thompson, Wall, Cousins, Griffin, Melo, Howard, Marc Gasol, and Drummond, and the young future superstars like Karl Towns. If Brandon is better than any of those guys, he will have destroyed my highest expectations for him.

Just because he kind of looks like Durant does not make him Durant. KD is an ELITE shooter. Extremely accurate off the dribble, and unlimited range. A career 88.2% free throw shooter. Brandon is not that type of shooter. Though he could certainly improve, I don't see him reaching KD's level of shooting prowess. Few ever do. Let's also not forget that KD averaged 11.1 rebounds per game in his 1 season at Texas. Brandon does not rebound the ball at that rate.

Look, I'm not trying to say Brandon has no chance to become a top 10 player, I'm just saying it's not very likely. Players in the NBA are just too damn good. Just let Brandon be Brandon and see what happens. He's a very nice player, but he's got a LONG way to go before being included in any top 10 player discussions. The recency bias is strong with this board.
I was projecting forward when many of these guys you list are on the tails of their careers- like 6 years from now. That said- as you note the pros are all good and the separation is not clear or big. My thought is that Brandon is more likely to be in the discussion than Justise and I am a huge Justise fan- but Justise does have that do whatever it takes attitude which I am waiting to see from Brandon.

Kedsy
02-16-2016, 11:49 AM
If our defense was elite last year (#12 KenPom)...

Our defense was not elite last year. Pomeroy ranked it #57 going into the NCAA tournament. Our D was elite during the tournament, which is why we ended at #12. In any event, Justise is looking like an elite defender in the NBA. But if he develops a shot, I think he'll be a great 3-and-D guy. I'll be surprised if he's known as one of the best all-around or "franchise level" players.


What? There's no basis for that assumption. Do you realize how good the top 10 . . . even top 20 players in the NBA are?

I'm not saying Brandon will be a top 10 player, but the list is pretty fluid. Five years ago, only four of your listed top 10 would have been on the list. And maybe four of your second 10. Five years from now, I'd expect similar turnover.


Just because he kind of looks like Durant does not make him Durant. KD is an ELITE shooter. Extremely accurate off the dribble, and unlimited range. A career 88.2% free throw shooter. Brandon is not that type of shooter.

Again, not saying Brandon will be as good a shooter as KD. But FWIW, Brandon so far has both a better 2-pt FG% (.522 to .505) and 3-pt FG% (.409 to .404) than Durant had in his one year of college. Free throw percentage, of course, isn't close (.670 to .816).

BD80
02-16-2016, 11:51 AM
... he's got a LONG way to go before being included in any top 10 player discussions. ...

I dunno, there's a virus going around near the Olympic site that could change the landscape pretty quickly ...

Li_Duke
02-16-2016, 11:54 AM
What? There's no basis for that assumption. Do you realize how good the top 10 . . . even top 20 players in the NBA are?

Here's a quick top 10 off the top of my head:

1. Curry
2. LeBron
3. Durant
4. Westbrook
5. Davis
6. Kawhi
7. Paul
8. Draymond
9. George
10. Harden

That doesn't even include guys like Kyrie, Klay Thompson, Wall, Cousins, Griffin, Melo, Howard, Marc Gasol, and Drummond, and the young future superstars like Karl Towns. If Brandon is better than any of those guys, he will have destroyed my highest expectations for him.

Just because he kind of looks like Durant does not make him Durant. KD is an ELITE shooter. Extremely accurate off the dribble, and unlimited range. A career 88.2% free throw shooter. Brandon is not that type of shooter. Though he could certainly improve, I don't see him reaching KD's level of shooting prowess. Few ever do. Let's also not forget that KD averaged 11.1 rebounds per game in his 1 season at Texas. Brandon does not rebound the ball at that rate.

Look, I'm not trying to say Brandon has no chance to become a top 10 player, I'm just saying it's not very likely. Players in the NBA are just too damn good. Just let Brandon be Brandon and see what happens. He's a very nice player, but he's got a LONG way to go before being included in any top 10 player discussions. The recency bias is strong with this board.

I think you'll find some real believers that Justice has a chance to be Kawhi or PG in time. So he has a chance to be top 10 at some point of his career. That's definitely true of Brandon and, of course, Kyrie. Some would even say that of JO. Think about some of these top 10 players and their career arcs for a minute or two.
1. Curry wasn't considered anything more than a good guard for his first 3 years in the NBA. He did not become all-star level until the year before last (age 25 - 7 years older than Brandon today).
6.,8.,9.. Neither of these guys were top picks: Kawhi (#15), Draymond (2nd rounder), PG (#10), these guys had even less chance of becoming top 10 then Ingram today.
10. Harden - he was a 6th man for his first 3 years until he went to Houston where he blossomed into all-NBA.
Even Kevin Durant struggled early, shooting under 30% from 3 his first season (although pure usage meant that he was the ROY).

sagegrouse
02-16-2016, 12:18 PM
I think you'll find some real believers that Justice has a chance to be Kawhi or PG in time. So he has a chance to be top 10 at some point of his career. That's definitely true of Brandon and, of course, Kyrie. Some would even say that of JO. Think about some of these top 10 players and their career arcs for a minute or two.
1. Curry wasn't considered anything more than a good guard for his first 3 years in the NBA. He did not become all-star level until the year before last (age 25 - 7 years older than Brandon today).
6.,8.,9.. Neither of these guys were top picks: Kawhi (#15), Draymond (2nd rounder), PG (#10), these guys had even less chance of becoming top 10 then Ingram today.
10. Harden - he was a 6th man for his first 3 years until he went to Houston where he blossomed into all-NBA.
Even Kevin Durant struggled early, shooting under 30% from 3 his first season (although pure usage meant that he was the ROY).

I suppose "PG" is Paul George?

kAzE
02-16-2016, 12:36 PM
Our defense was not elite last year. Pomeroy ranked it #57 going into the NCAA tournament. Our D was elite during the tournament, which is why we ended at #12. In any event, Justise is looking like an elite defender in the NBA. But if he develops a shot, I think he'll be a great 3-and-D guy. I'll be surprised if he's known as one of the best all-around or "franchise level" players.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree . . . I think Justise is absolutely on a trajectory to be a perennial All-Star. He's not "only defense," he's just not being asked to produce very much on the offensive side of the ball with guys like Wade, Bosh, Deng, and Gerald Green on the team, there's already plenty of scoring from the wing. Justise will develop offensively and become a very capable scorer in time. But his defense is already good enough to earn all defensive team honors. Again, he's 19. Kawhi Leonard averaged 7 PPG as a 20 year old rookie.



I'm not saying Brandon will be a top 10 player, but the list is pretty fluid. Five years ago, only four of your listed top 10 would have been on the list. And maybe four of your second 10. Five years from now, I'd expect similar turnover.

5 years ago, this list would have been just as hard, or maybe even tougher to crack:

1. LeBron
2. Howard (Yes, he was that good before injuries took him down)
3. Wade (Consistently a top 3 player until 2012, due to injuries)
4. Kobe
5. Paul
6. Durant
7. Rose
8. Westbrook
9. Dirk
10+: Duncan/Pau Gasol/Nash/Melo

Every guy on that list with the possible exception of Rose and/or Dwight is a future hall of famer. The point here is that while the list is fluid, even getting into that territory is pretty special, and not something that every promising young prospect should be expected to reach.

Kedsy
02-16-2016, 01:07 PM
5 years ago, this list would have been just as hard, or maybe even tougher to crack:


Yeah, except five years later, six new guys cracked it. My point is that probably half your list (or more) will be different in five years and some young guys will be on it. Maybe one of them will be Brandon Ingram, maybe not. But I don't agree (as you seem to) that it's out of the question.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 01:26 PM
Yeah, except five years later, six new guys cracked it. My point is that probably half your list (or more) will be different in five years and some young guys will be on it. Maybe one of them will be Brandon Ingram, maybe not. But I don't agree (as you seem to) that it's out of the question.

I don't think it's out of the question, I just think it's unlikely (But I would say that for almost anyone other than surefire guys like LeBron), and far from a certainty. Also, the current top 10 are VERY young on average, so even 5 years from now, most of those guys should still be at or near the top of their game (barring injuries of course). Karl Towns is probably going to be a fixture in the top 10 for a pretty long time as well, not to mention he's going to have to compete with the likes of Ben Simmons, and possibly Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, etc.

Brandon, by all indications should have a very good chance to be an all-star some day, but that only puts him in roughly the top 24 players, not the top 10.

There are a LOT of really, REALLY good players that will probably never be a top 10 player:

Lillard, Love, Butler, Lowry, Millsap, Horford, Wall, DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, DeRozan, Kemba Walker, Bledsoe, and many more.

These guys are all franchise/max contract level players. There's nothing wrong with that. Top 10 is hallowed ground.

COYS
02-16-2016, 01:26 PM
We're just going to have to agree to disagree . . . I think Justise is absolutely on a trajectory to be a perennial All-Star. He's not "only defense," he's just not being asked to produce very much on the offensive side of the ball with guys like Wade, Bosh, Deng, and Gerald Green on the team, there's already plenty of scoring from the wing. Justise will develop offensively and become a very capable scorer in time. But his defense is already good enough to earn all defensive team honors. Again, he's 19. Kawhi Leonard averaged 7 PPG as a 20 year old rookie.



5 years ago, this list would have been just as hard, or maybe even tougher to crack:

1. LeBron
2. Howard (Yes, he was that good before injuries took him down)
3. Wade (Consistently a top 3 player until 2012, due to injuries)
4. Kobe
5. Paul
6. Durant
7. Rose
8. Westbrook
9. Dirk
10+: Duncan/Pau Gasol/Nash/Melo

Every guy on that list with the possible exception of Rose and/or Dwight is a future hall of famer. The point here is that while the list is fluid, even getting into that territory is pretty special, and not something that every promising young prospect should be expected to reach.


I love Justise. I think he will be a really good NBA player. But he will have to improve DRAMATICALLY on the offensive end to put him on an All Star path. His PER this year is not at all good 7.39. He has a negative Value Added of -64.5 and a Estimated Wins Added of -2.2. His 15.9% turnover rate is the WORST of all qualified rookies. And he has a TS% lower than 50%.

Now, I think a lot of this will improve. I bet his turnover rate will decrease quite a bit, which alone will improve his PER. His assist rate of 15.6 isn't bad at all for a small forward. Hopefully he will continue to improve his shooting. He's also being asked to do very little on the offensive end, which might actually be limiting him enough that he simply isn't comfortable with the ball. But at the end of the day, he really hasn't shown much potential to be an All Star level player. Again, I hope that we see dramatic improvement from him. Give his age and athletic ability, I'll be surprised if he doesn't become a really solid pro. But he has a looooooong way to go before we can talk All Star level offensive ability (and lets face it, All Star appearances are almost entirely based on offense). Let's let him become something other than one of the worst offensive players in the league first.

As for Brandon, I don't think there's any reason to doubt his ability at the next level. He is clearly a top 2 pick this year. Some metrics have Brandon as far and away our best defender, and honestly, I believe it (interestingly, those same metrics peg Matt as our worst defender in the six man rotation). We haven't relied on him to be a primary stopper, but his combo of length and athleticism is off the charts. He routinely alters or blocks shots and while he gets steals at a decent rate, he deflects and disrupts far more passes than he gets credit for. He has the ability to be a great shooter off the dribble and his potential on the pick n' roll is mouth watering with the combo of his shooting ability and passing ability. His upside will be limited by how much he's able to contribute on the boards at the next level and how accurate he becomes as a shooter. If he can become a knock down NBA three point shooter and FT shooter, then Durant-lite will be an appropriate nickname. If I had to pick from the recent OAD guys who would have the best NBA career (pretending I'm envisioning their future in the NBA at the time they left college), I'd still go with Kyrie just because his college efficiency was mind-boggling, but with Brandon's physical tools, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he comes out on top five years from now. If for some reason all of these guys were drafted in the same year going off of their college performance only, I'd pick like this:

1) Kyrie
2) Brandon
3) Jah
4) Jabari
5) Justise
6) Austin
7) Tyus

Note, I'm not knocking any of these guys in any way, shape, or form. But I do think the praise that Brandon gets is worthy. He started more slowly than our other recent star freshmen have, but he has shown an ability that will put him alongside Kyrie, Jah, and Jabari in the annals of Duke history.

Quick aside: Austin really does get shortchanged a little. He played on a team with far more balance (Seth, Mason, Ryan, Andre) and still put up some sensational numbers. He was shy of those four guys I mentioned above in terms of dominance, but just barely. Take away Ryan's injury that kept him out of our tournament games (ACC and NCAAT) and I'm certain we would remember that 2012 team differently.

huey
02-16-2016, 01:37 PM
Brandon is as much fun to watch as was the freshman Johnny Dawkins. His potential is up there. Way up there. We may not have seen his best college games yet. If that scrawny body holds out...

Do not presume that Brandon doesn't have a killer instinct, as a couple on this board have done. That is a joke. He shows it a bit differently, that's all.

I think it really comes out during the last 5 or 6 minutes of tight games. Watch when he grabs a rebound and Thornton comes up to him asking for the ball. If it's a close game, I bet you'll see Brandon waving him off since he wants to bring it up, he wants to set up the play, and he wants to guarantee a win. It's not selfishness, but a realization that he's the best guy out there and he needs to really put the team on his shoulders on the offensive end at the end of games.

I think this will be more apparent/developed when he's in the NBA. That was the knock on Okafor before the draft too. But there's something that's so fluid about Jah's moves that allows him to pull them off without strength of will/rage. With guards, you have to use much more strength of will to push yourself into a drive where you hurtle your body at the big guys under the basket. I think Brandon will have that will to make him successful at the next level, sleepy T-Mac eyes and all.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 03:22 PM
I'm not saying Brandon will be a top 10 player, but the list is pretty fluid. Five years ago, only four of your listed top 10 would have been on the list. And maybe four of your second 10. Five years from now, I'd expect similar turnover.

In 5 years,

1. Steph Curry will be 32, should still be a top 10 player if his ankles hold up
2. LeBron will be 36, maybe out of the top 10, maybe not. Depends on how his body deals with the next 5 years
3. Durant will be 32, easily a top 2 player still
4. Westbrook will be 32, possible decline with some loss of athleticism/injuries, but I'm not betting against him, should still be top 10
5. Davis will be 27 and in his absolute prime, I expect him to be the best player in the league by this time
6. Kawhi will be 29, and in his prime
7. Paul will be 35, very likely no longer top 10
8. Draymond will be 30, it's a toss up whether or not he can keep this up for 5 years
9. George will be 30, top 10 for sure
10. Harden will be 31, toss up for me

Kyrie will be 28, in my opinion he will be one of, if not the best point guard in the league and easily top 10 player
Klay will be 31, honestly, he should have been #10 ahead of Harden in my original list because of his two-way capability. Such a good shooter, no reason to think he won't be top 10 or close to it.
Andre Drummond will be 27, and the most dominant big man with 2 eyebrows, easily top 10
Karl Towns will be 25, and probably in the discussion with Drummond and Davis for the best big man in the league.

Just because the best 10 players 5 years ago have changed dramatically doesn't mean it will be the same case 5 years from now. The current generation of stars in the NBA are quite young, and very few of them are in the "aging superstar" category, as was the case 5 years ago with Kobe, Dirk, Duncan, etc.

There will absolutely be 2 or 3 young guys who rise up and hit a level of superstardom that we can't predict, but that current crop of guys is pretty damn incredible. It's hard to see many guys encroaching that top 10 for awhile. Like I said, Brandon certainly has a chance, I just think it's unlikely. There's just so much of his game that has yet to be developed. Nobody knows what the finished product will be. He could be anything from a very good scorer but not all-star to a bona fide super star.

Kedsy
02-16-2016, 04:32 PM
Just because the best 10 players 5 years ago have changed dramatically doesn't mean it will be the same case 5 years from now. The current generation of stars in the NBA are quite young, and very few of them are in the "aging superstar" category, as was the case 5 years ago with Kobe, Dirk, Duncan, etc.

From your list of five years ago, Howard was 25, Rose was 22, Anthony was 26, Wade was 29, and Pau Gasol was 30. If we were having this conversation five years ago, I assume you would have told me that Howard, Rose, and Anthony would certainly be in the top 10 in 2016 and that Wade and Gasol maybe, if they could stay injury free. But it didn't happen that way.

I'd also note that in your 5-years-ago list, at least three of the players (Durant, Rose, Westbrook) couldn't have been on the list five years before that and probably five wouldn't have (Howard and Paul were up-and-comers, but neither played in the All Star Game in 2006). So that's a turnover of five between 2006 and 2011, and six between 2011 and 2016. My guess is that sort of turnover is the norm and the top ten list changes a lot more frequently than you think it does.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 04:40 PM
From your list of five years ago, Howard was 25, Rose was 22, Anthony was 26, Wade was 29, and Pau Gasol was 30. If we were having this conversation five years ago, I assume you would have told me that Howard, Rose, and Anthony would certainly be in the top 10 in 2016 and that Wade and Gasol maybe, if they could stay injury free. But it didn't happen that way.

I'd also note that in your 5-years-ago list, at least three of the players (Durant, Rose, Westbrook) couldn't have been on the list five years before that and probably five wouldn't have (Howard and Paul were up-and-comers, but neither played in the All Star Game in 2006). So that's a turnover of five between 2006 and 2011, and six between 2011 and 2016. My guess is that sort of turnover is the norm and the top ten list changes a lot more frequently than you think it does.

As soon as the post locked me out editing, I was about add another sentence about injuries potentially affecting 2 or 3 of the guys I talked about. That was certainly the case with Melo, Rose, and Howard (Though I didn't actually have Melo in the top 10, just in contention with some others). If we go back a few more years, you can add Brandon Roy to that unfortunate list (he was SO good). But even compensating for injuries and normal turnover, we're talking about 3, maybe 4 spots on that list that are up for grabs in the next 5 years. Could Brandon be one of those guys? There's a chance, it's just slim. That's all I'm saying. We really should see how THIS year plays out before talking about how he stacks up in the NBA.

Ichabod Drain
02-16-2016, 04:43 PM
Ingram has a cathedral like ceiling. More so than any other one and done Duke has had. That's just my opinion.

Kedsy
02-16-2016, 04:55 PM
We really should see how THIS year plays out before talking about how he stacks up in the NBA.

No argument on that point. I'm just saying things change fast and you never know what it'll look like in five years.

FerryFor50
02-16-2016, 05:16 PM
In 5 years,

1. Steph Curry will be 32, should still be a top 10 player if his ankles hold up
2. LeBron will be 36, maybe out of the top 10, maybe not. Depends on how his body deals with the next 5 years
3. Durant will be 32, easily a top 2 player still
4. Westbrook will be 32, possible decline with some loss of athleticism/injuries, but I'm not betting against him, should still be top 10
5. Davis will be 27 and in his absolute prime, I expect him to be the best player in the league by this time
6. Kawhi will be 29, and in his prime
7. Paul will be 35, very likely no longer top 10
8. Draymond will be 30, it's a toss up whether or not he can keep this up for 5 years
9. George will be 30, top 10 for sure
10. Harden will be 31, toss up for me

Kyrie will be 28, in my opinion he will be one of, if not the best point guard in the league and easily top 10 player
Klay will be 31, honestly, he should have been #10 ahead of Harden in my original list because of his two-way capability. Such a good shooter, no reason to think he won't be top 10 or close to it.
Andre Drummond will be 27, and the most dominant big man with 2 eyebrows, easily top 10
Karl Towns will be 25, and probably in the discussion with Drummond and Davis for the best big man in the league.

Just because the best 10 players 5 years ago have changed dramatically doesn't mean it will be the same case 5 years from now. The current generation of stars in the NBA are quite young, and very few of them are in the "aging superstar" category, as was the case 5 years ago with Kobe, Dirk, Duncan, etc.

There will absolutely be 2 or 3 young guys who rise up and hit a level of superstardom that we can't predict, but that current crop of guys is pretty damn incredible. It's hard to see many guys encroaching that top 10 for awhile. Like I said, Brandon certainly has a chance, I just think it's unlikely. There's just so much of his game that has yet to be developed. Nobody knows what the finished product will be. He could be anything from a very good scorer but not all-star to a bona fide super star.

No Okafor on that list? I'd say his ceiling is up there with Towns.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 05:19 PM
No Okafor on that list? I'd say his ceiling is up there with Towns.

Jah is good, probably even better than similar guys such as Al Jefferson and Enes Kanter, and I love him for what he did in 2015, but no way he should be compared to Karl Towns anymore. Towns is up in Kevin Garnett/Anthony Davis territory (in my opinion). He just turned 20 years old and is averaging 17 and 10 on 54% shooting, 38% from 3, and 85% from the foul line. Defensively, it's not even close. And Towns has only improved as the season has progressed. He's probably one the top 5 most untradeable assets in the league right now.

FerryFor50
02-16-2016, 05:30 PM
Jah is good, probably even better than similar guys such as Al Jefferson and Enes Kanter, and I love him for what he did in 2015, but no way should he be compared to Karl Towns anymore. Towns is up in Kevin Garnett/Anthony Davis territory (in my opinion).

What exactly has Towns shown you that puts him in Garnett/Davis territory?

He definitely is a better defender than Jah and has better range on his shot, but Jah is superior to Towns on the block and has bested him in head to head matchups this season. (tied in wins/losses, though)

Okafor stats vs MIN
1/4 - 21 minutes, 10 pts, 2 steals, 1 block, 3 boards
11/23 - 33 minutes, 25 points, 12 boards, 2 blocks

Towns stats vs PHI
1/4 - 25 min, 8 points, 6 boards
11/23 - 19 min, 6 points, 2 boards, 2 blocks

That's with Towns having a better overall supporting cast than Jahlil does.

Towns' career high for points is 35. Jah's career high is 26, and that was most recently done against Demarcus Cousins (along with 10 rebounds).

The future is bright for both, provided Jah learned his lessons from his off court issues.

kAzE
02-16-2016, 05:37 PM
What exactly has Towns shown you that puts him in Garnett/Davis territory?

He definitely is a better defender than Jah and has better range on his shot, but Jah is superior to Towns on the block and has bested him in head to head matchups this season. (tied in wins/losses, though)

Okafor stats vs MIN
1/4 - 21 minutes, 10 pts, 2 steals, 1 block, 3 boards
11/23 - 33 minutes, 25 points, 12 boards, 2 blocks

Towns stats vs PHI
1/4 - 25 min, 8 points, 6 boards
11/23 - 19 min, 6 points, 2 boards, 2 blocks

That's with Towns having a better overall supporting cast than Jahlil does.

Towns' career high for points is 35. Jah's career high is 26, and that was most recently done against Demarcus Cousins (along with 10 rebounds).

The future is bright for both, provided Jah learned his lessons from his off court issues.

He's just a much better shooter, ball handler, and defender. Versatility makes a big difference. Jah does 1 thing very well: scoring in the post, but he's rated as one of the worst defensive big men in the league, and is a very average rebounder for his size. Not sure why Jah's matchup with DeMarcus Cousins is significant, because Boogie doesn't try on defense most of the time. Conversely, Boogie dominated Jah on the other end with 28 points, 12 boards and 5 assists and the Kings won.

Strangely, both of these guy's career highs came in their most recent game before the All-Star Break. Towns posted 35, 11, and 3 blocks on 12 of 19 shooting, 11 of 13 from the foul line. He limited Jonas Valanciunas to 12 and 7 in a win over the #2 team in the Eastern Conference, and then proceeded to win the skills challenge as a 7 foot tall center.

FerryFor50
02-16-2016, 05:41 PM
He's just a much better shooter and defender. Versatility makes a big difference. Jah does 1 thing very well: scoring in the post, but he's rated as one of the worst defensive big men in the league. Not sure why Jah's matchup with DeMarcus Cousins is significant, because Boogie doesn't try on defense most of the time. Conversely, Boogie dominated Jah on the other end with 28 points, 12 boards and 5 assists and the Kings won.

Strangely, both of these guy's career highs came in their most recent game before the All-Star Break. Towns scored 35, 11, and 3 blocks on 12 of 19 shooting, 11 of 13 from the foul line. He limited Jonas Valanciunas to 12 and 7 in a win over the #2 team in the Eastern Conference.

Boogie dominates everyone. :)

Edouble
02-16-2016, 06:31 PM
This is a 2-man draft. Ingram and Simmons are, without question, the top two players, and whoever gets the third pick is gonna be pissed (probably the 76ers). Nbadraft.net has a Euro dude at 3, Kris Dunn at 4, and Buddy Hield at 5. Dunn and Hield are awesome college players, but they would probably be two of the weakest 4 and 5 picks in a loooooooong time.

And my two cents on Duke players in the last 5-6 years? Ingram has the opportunity to be the best (even more impactful than Kyrie), and I'd take him in a heartbeat over Okafor or Winslow. Okafor is all offense right now and Winslow is all defense. I hope they balance out in their careers. Ingram? He's shown insane potential on both sides of the ball, which is very unique (like Anthony Davis).

Nitpick... then it's not actually unique. It's rare.

dukejim1
02-17-2016, 12:26 AM
No Okafor on that list? I'd say his ceiling is up there with Towns.

But the NBA style of play is moving away from the best utilization of Jah's skill unless he develops a really good mid-range jumper.

Billy Dat
02-17-2016, 06:31 AM
I think the controversial ending to the Duke v UVA game thwarted a new round of "Brandon Ingram keeps rising" press. With two huge road games this week, and Brandon's continued emergence as a huge focal point of our offense, he'll have his chance to shine again.

sagegrouse
02-17-2016, 08:40 AM
Original post by kAze. [Karl Anthony Towns is] just a much better shooter, ball handler, and defender. Versatility makes a big difference. Jah does 1 thing very well: scoring in the post, but he's rated as one of the worst defensive big men in the league, and is a very average rebounder for his size. Not sure why Jah's matchup with DeMarcus Cousins is significant, because Boogie doesn't try on defense most of the time. Conversely, Boogie dominated Jah on the other end with 28 points, 12 boards and 5 assists and the Kings won.

Strangely, both of these guy's career highs came in their most recent game before the All-Star Break. Towns posted 35, 11, and 3 blocks on 12 of 19 shooting, 11 of 13 from the foul line. He limited Jonas Valanciunas to 12 and 7 in a win over the #2 team in the Eastern Conference, and then proceeded to win the skills challenge as a 7 foot tall center.

But the NBA style of play is moving away from the best utilization of Jah's skill unless he develops a really good mid-range jumper.

Those who condemn Jahlil to mediocrity because of defensive play or absence of a mid-range jumper should recognize that Jah is a prodigy. He just turned 20 years old, and most of his early basketball career has been devoted to perfecting his offensive game around the basket, at which he excels on a scale of the very best centers. I see nothing to suggest that his basic physical skills will prevent him from becoming an excellent defensive player and rebounder; nor do I think there is any reason to believe that his offensive game will expand beyond his current range.

Carping on Okafor's faults is a bit like criticizing a brilliant young pianist for mastery of Beethoven but not Mozart.

tux
02-17-2016, 08:46 AM
Those who condemn Jahlil to mediocrity because of defensive play or absence of a mid-range jumper should recognize that Jah is a prodigy. He just turned 20 years old, and most of his early basketball career has been devoted to perfecting his offensive game around the basket, at which he excels on a scale of the very best centers. I see nothing to suggest that his basic physical skills will prevent him from becoming an excellent defensive player and rebounder; nor do I think there is any reason to believe that his offensive game will expand beyond his current range.

Carping on Okafor's faults is a bit like criticizing a brilliant young pianist for mastery of Beethoven but not Mozart.


I thought folks did the same thing to Kyrie. He was young and playing on a bad team (with some bad teammates) and everyone spent more time harping on anything he didn't do well. Obviously, some of the criticism is fair, but like Okafor, what Kyrie did well was off the charts... To put Towns into the KG/Davis bin is hyperbole to me; we'll see how things look down the road...

Edouble
02-17-2016, 09:04 AM
I thought folks did the same thing to Kyrie. He was young and playing on a bad team (with some bad teammates) and everyone spent more time harping on anything he didn't do well. Obviously, some of the criticism is fair, but like Okafor, what Kyrie did well was off the charts... To put Towns into the KG/Davis bin is hyperbole to me; we'll see how things look down the road...

It's incredibly high praise to loop KAT with Garnet and Davis, as those are basically MVP type players. Garnet won an MVP, and Davis certainly projects as a guy who will win one in the next 2-3 years.

Food for thought though... I was talking with a friend who is in my fantasy hoops league at the mid season point last week, and we both agreed that KAT would be a lock to go in the first round of our fantasy league draft next season. Intimidating statistics are a huge part of winning an NBA MVP.

bluedev_92
02-17-2016, 09:27 AM
Those who condemn Jahlil to mediocrity because of defensive play or absence of a mid-range jumper should recognize that Jah is a prodigy. He just turned 20 years old, and most of his early basketball career has been devoted to perfecting his offensive game around the basket, at which he excels on a scale of the very best centers. I see nothing to suggest that his basic physical skills will prevent him from becoming an excellent defensive player and rebounder; nor do I think there is any reason to believe that his offensive game will expand beyond his current range.

Carping on Okafor's faults is a bit like criticizing a brilliant young pianist for mastery of Beethoven but not Mozart.

Well put!

fraggler
02-17-2016, 09:33 AM
Those who condemn Jahlil to mediocrity because of defensive play or absence of a mid-range jumper should recognize that Jah is a prodigy. He just turned 20 years old, and most of his early basketball career has been devoted to perfecting his offensive game around the basket, at which he excels on a scale of the very best centers. I see nothing to suggest that his basic physical skills will prevent him from becoming an excellent defensive player and rebounder; nor do I think there is any reason to believe that his offensive game will expand beyond his current range.

Carping on Okafor's faults is a bit like criticizing a brilliant young pianist for mastery of Beethoven but not Mozart.

Also, those who say he doesn't have a midrange jumper haven't been watching him play. It is a little weird that people especially Duke fans have basically decided that at barely 20 he will never get better. He is good enough on the low post to change how teams play him - especially if he ever gets some decent teammates. That is a big deal, and a bigger deal than simply being another 6-10 guy shooting 3s, who is marginal down low. He is a bucket getter, and I think people sleep on how important it is to have one if you want to make deep post season runs. I will agree that he will not likely become an elite rebounder or defender, but he will find his way there to be a net positive in those areas. Looking at the two right now, KAT has a higher ceiling as a two-way impact player, but if Jah gets his head on right and keeps working, he could be a game changer on O.

Li_Duke
02-17-2016, 09:53 AM
If I was picking players for 5 years from now, my list would be something like this:
Current aging stars: Chris Paul, Lebron, Anthony, Lowry, Bosh, Horford, Millsap, M Gasol (not considering guys likely to have retired within 5 years)
Current superstars who will still be in prime in 5 years: Curry, Davis, Harden, Durant, Westbrook
2nd tier stars who will still be in prime in 5 years: Draymond Green, Thompson, Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Bledsoe, Cousins, Butler, Irving, Love, Drummond, George, Leonard, Wall, Beal, Lillard, Gobert, Hayward, Favors
Young NBA/soon to be NBA players who have the most potential to be stars: Porzingis, Antetokounmpo, Towns, Wiggins, Simmons
Young NBA/soon to be NBA players who also have potential to be stars: Oladipo, Noel, McCollum, Okafor, Parker, Winslow, Stanley Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Mudiay, Russell, Turner, Hood, Exum, Ingram

Of the currently aging superstar, I'd consider Lebron the only one who has a chance to be top 10 in 5 years.

Barring major injury, I think we can safely say Curry, Davis, and Durant will still be in the top 10. Westbrook's game is built on superior athleticism; I'm not betting on him being top 10 5 years from now. I'm also skeptical about Harden's ability to be top 10 5 years from now; like Carmelo Anthony, his game is based too much on spectacular individual offense, and his defense is sub-par.

Of the "2nd tier", barring major injury, I think Leonard and George will be in the top 10 (they already are). Next likeliest would be Irving, Drummond, possibly Cousins and Griffin (depending on whether they implode). I don't know if Green will have as much value in a different system. DeAndre Jordan's game will suffer as he loses his athleticism. Thompson, Bledsoe, Butler, Lillard, Wall, Beal, Gobert, Hayward, and Favors feel like they are destined to be good players, but not superstars.

If I was a Bayesian, I would put Curry, Davis, Durant, Leonard, and George as having a high prior probability (>50%) of being top 10 in 5 years. Another 4 have about a 25-50% chance of being top 10 in 5 years: Lebron, Irving, Drummond, Cousins, Griffin, Westbrook, and Harden. Everyone else listed, I'd put at 2-<25% chance.

In regards to all the Duke players on the list, I admit I might be biased toward Duke players. Unfortunately Parker's injury may have capped his ceiling. Hood has been better than most people expected (excluding Duke fans); I think he'll be considered as good as Hayward as early as next year.

I didn't consider players still in high school. Let them show they can perform in college first.

yancem
02-17-2016, 09:59 AM
Also, those who say he doesn't have a midrange jumper haven't been watching him play. It is a little weird that people especially Duke fans have basically decided that at barely 20 he will never get better. He is good enough on the low post to change how teams play him - especially if he ever gets some decent teammates. That is a big deal, and a bigger deal than simply being another 6-10 guy shooting 3s, who is marginal down low. He is a bucket getter, and I think people sleep on how important it is to have one if you want to make deep post season runs. I will agree that he will not likely become an elite rebounder or defender, but he will find his way there to be a net positive in those areas. Looking at the two right now, KAT has a higher ceiling as a two-way impact player, but if Jah gets his head on right and keeps working, he could be a game changer on O.

I unfortunately haven't had a chance to watch Okafor play much live but if you watch his highlights, he's taking and making quite a few 12-15 footers, some off the dribble and even a few of the turn around type. He has also show a solid face up and drive game. He's pretty damn nimble for his size and much more than just a low block threat. And again, he is only a 20 year old rookie. I'm also not so sure if defense is as bad as some suggest. His on ball defense seems pretty solid and he should learn how to play better help/team defense as he gains experience. He does need to rebound a little better which hopefully will also come with experience, it's not like he doesn't have the size and hands to be a great rebounder.

kAzE
02-17-2016, 10:01 AM
Those who condemn Jahlil to mediocrity because of defensive play or absence of a mid-range jumper should recognize that Jah is a prodigy. He just turned 20 years old, and most of his early basketball career has been devoted to perfecting his offensive game around the basket, at which he excels on a scale of the very best centers. I see nothing to suggest that his basic physical skills will prevent him from becoming an excellent defensive player and rebounder; nor do I think there is any reason to believe that his offensive game will expand beyond his current range.

Carping on Okafor's faults is a bit like criticizing a brilliant young pianist for mastery of Beethoven but not Mozart.

Any criticism I directed toward Jah were on the basis of him being compared to KAT, who is just on a higher tier, and rightfully so. He was the #1 pick for good reason.

Plus, I just said he'll probably be better than Al Jefferson or Enes Kanter . . . those guys are not mediocre, they are very good offensive players. He'll probably even be better than Greg Monroe. All those guys are elite interior scorers. However, Jah will need to work on his rebounding if that statement is going to hold up.

I still remain skeptical of his defensive potential. His positioning and knowledge will improve with experience, but he currently doesn't have the lateral quickness or explosiveness to become an elite pick and roll defender.

Des Esseintes
02-17-2016, 10:04 AM
Those who condemn Jahlil to mediocrity because of defensive play or absence of a mid-range jumper should recognize that Jah is a prodigy. He just turned 20 years old, and most of his early basketball career has been devoted to perfecting his offensive game around the basket, at which he excels on a scale of the very best centers. I see nothing to suggest that his basic physical skills will prevent him from becoming an excellent defensive player and rebounder; nor do I think there is any reason to believe that his offensive game will expand beyond his current range.

Carping on Okafor's faults is a bit like criticizing a brilliant young pianist for mastery of Beethoven but not Mozart.
Has anyone in this thread "condemned" Okafor to "mediocrity"? The 2015 draft was beyond loaded, and it's not Okafor's fault he entered the league with multiple generational talents. Karl Towns has looked so far like a potential best-player-alive. Okafor has looked like a potential All-Star. It's not slagging Okafor to make that distinction. Further, you'd be hard pressed to find a respected NBA observer who *wouldn't* draw that distinction right now.

I mean, sure, Okafor is a prodigy. I agree. But then what do you call the guys (KAT and 36 Latvia) who are no older than him and who do a half dozen things already better than he may *ever* do them? It's almost impossible for Okafor's single advantage in post scoring to overcome the multiple deficits elsewhere. But again, all that means is that his ceiling is "only" third best player in a fantastic draft. Are we really going to be so childish as to call that an insult to the man?

fraggler
02-17-2016, 10:14 AM
But the NBA style of play is moving away from the best utilization of Jah's skill unless he develops a really good mid-range jumper.

From the several games I have watched, Jah has a very nice face up game - not just a good jumper, but the ability to leverage it into opportunities at the rim. A team with a better coach (or just better players), could even better utilize his versatility on offense.

Li_Duke
02-17-2016, 10:15 AM
Has anyone in this thread "condemned" Okafor to "mediocrity"? The 2015 draft was beyond loaded, and it's not Okafor's fault he entered the league with multiple generational talents. Karl Towns has looked so far like a potential best-player-alive. Okafor has looked like a potential All-Star. It's not slagging Okafor to make that distinction. Further, you'd be hard pressed to find a respected NBA observer who *wouldn't* draw that distinction right now.

I mean, sure, Okafor is a prodigy. I agree. But then what do you call the guys (KAT and 36 Latvia) who are no older than him and who do a half dozen things already better than he may *ever* do them? It's almost impossible for Okafor's single advantage in post scoring to overcome the multiple deficits elsewhere. But again, all that means is that his ceiling is "only" third best player in a fantastic draft. Are we really going to be so childish as to call that an insult to the man?

I'm going to go ahead and predict that the 2015 draft will go down as being the best since 2003 (Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Anthony). Compared to 2003, it won't have as much top level talent, but it will have greater depth of very good talent.

kAzE
02-17-2016, 10:19 AM
For those of you who are calling my KAT/Garnett/Davis comparison "hyperbole", here's a comparison of their age 20 seasons:

Garnett: 17.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.1 BPG, 1.4 SPG, 2.3 TOPG, 49.9 FG%, 28.6 3FG%, 75.4 FT%
Davis: 13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.8 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.4 TOPG, 51.6 FG%, 0.0 3FG%, 75.1 FT%
Towns: 17.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.8 BPG, 0.6 SPG, 2.1 TOPG, 54.4 FG%, 37.5 3FG%, 85.2 FT%

That's not hyperbole. He's the best shooter AND rebounder of the 3 at age 20. The shooting isn't even close, his shooting range opens up a ridiculous number of options for any offense. Defensively, there's a debate still to be had, but KAT is not a single step below those guys. His skills challenge victory was no fluke, he's one of the most skilled 7 footers to ever enter the league, and his career trajectory is pointing WAY up.

Des Esseintes
02-17-2016, 10:26 AM
I'm going to go ahead and predict that the 2015 draft will go down as being the best since 2003 (Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Anthony). Compared to 2003, it won't have as much top level talent, but it will have greater depth of very good talent.

Yeah, and the 2015 UK team is going to go down as an all-time "how did they lose?" team. Town, Lyles, and Booker all look like they can BALL. Like All-NBA for Towns and All-Star games for the other two ball. Cauley-Stein seems bound for a long career, too. Even in as random an event as NCAA tournament, Calipari's failure to win out with that preponderance of talent is pretteee desultory. Glorious.

tbyers11
02-17-2016, 10:28 AM
Yeah, and the 2015 UK team is going to go down as an all-time "how did they lose?" team. Town, Lyles, and Booker all look like they can BALL. Like All-NBA for Towns and All-Star games for the other two ball. Cauley-Stein seems bound for a long career, too. Even in as random an event as NCAA tournament, Calipari's failure to win out with that preponderance of talent is pretteee desultory. Glorious.

Two words. Harrison twins

Des Esseintes
02-17-2016, 10:28 AM
Two words. Harrison twins

That's on Cal.

tbyers11
02-17-2016, 10:31 AM
That's on Cal.

Total agreement. He needed to manage them better. If that meant benching them or taking the ball out of their hands in crunch time, he should have done so. Ulis has made a big leap from frosh to soph, but I still think he would been a better primary ballhandler/decision maker late in games

FerryFor50
02-17-2016, 11:00 AM
In regards to all the Duke players on the list, I admit I might be biased toward Duke players. Unfortunately Parker's injury may have capped his ceiling. Hood has been better than most people expected (excluding Duke fans); I think he'll be considered as good as Hayward as early as next year.

I didn't consider players still in high school. Let them show they can perform in college first.

I dunno. Parker looked pretty springy in the Rising Stars game on all-star weekend...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/02/13/jabari-parker-windmills-posterizes-kristaps-porzingis-in-rising-stars-challenge/
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25482481/watch-jabari-parker-throws-down-windwill-dunk-during-rising-stars-challenge


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_x0TVMsb34

FerryFor50
02-17-2016, 11:02 AM
Total agreement. He needed to manage them better. If that meant benching them or taking the ball out of their hands in crunch time, he should have done so. Ulis has made a big leap from frosh to soph, but I still think he would been a better primary ballhandler/decision maker late in games

Or, he needed to convince them to declare for the draft rather than stick around.

However, to be fair, the Harrisons carried UK to a couple wins in the NCAAs.

flyingdutchdevil
02-17-2016, 11:02 AM
I dunno. Parker looked pretty springy in the Rising Stars game on all-star weekend...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/02/13/jabari-parker-windmills-posterizes-kristaps-porzingis-in-rising-stars-challenge/
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25482481/watch-jabari-parker-throws-down-windwill-dunk-during-rising-stars-challenge


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_x0TVMsb34

Yeah, Parker's athleticism isn't the problem. It's his 3pt shooting (or lack thereof) and poor defense / rebounding.

FerryFor50
02-17-2016, 11:04 AM
Has anyone in this thread "condemned" Okafor to "mediocrity"? The 2015 draft was beyond loaded, and it's not Okafor's fault he entered the league with multiple generational talents. Karl Towns has looked so far like a potential best-player-alive. Okafor has looked like a potential All-Star. It's not slagging Okafor to make that distinction. Further, you'd be hard pressed to find a respected NBA observer who *wouldn't* draw that distinction right now.

I mean, sure, Okafor is a prodigy. I agree. But then what do you call the guys (KAT and 36 Latvia) who are no older than him and who do a half dozen things already better than he may *ever* do them? It's almost impossible for Okafor's single advantage in post scoring to overcome the multiple deficits elsewhere. But again, all that means is that his ceiling is "only" third best player in a fantastic draft. Are we really going to be so childish as to call that an insult to the man?

Porzingis is the one that really catches my attention over KAT and Okafor. 7'3" with shotblocking, athleticism, rebounding *and* 3 point range? yes, please.

FerryFor50
02-17-2016, 11:07 AM
Yeah, Parker's athleticism isn't the problem. It's his 3pt shooting (or lack thereof) and poor defense / rebounding.

I noticed this season that he's actually stopped taking as many 3s.

Last season he didn't take a ton - just .6 per game. But this season, he's only taking .1 per game.

So while he's not great at shooting 3s, at least he recognizes it and doesn't try to take them.

I think he can develop that part of his game, but remember, he had to recover from an ACL injury over the offseason that likely prevented him from developing anything in his game.

FerryFor50
02-17-2016, 11:09 AM
Porzingis is the one that really catches my attention over KAT and Okafor. 7'3" with shotblocking, athleticism, rebounding *and* 3 point range? yes, please.

Here's a cool article on Porzingis:

http://hoopshype.com/2016/02/15/before-the-knicks-this-is-how-kristaps-porzingis-was-in-spain/

Check out the hands... Okafor-esque!

https://usathoopshype.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/porzingis-seville-1.jpg

huey
02-17-2016, 11:18 PM
Hope we don't have to question Ingram's killer instinct again. What a game. What rebounds. What shots.

tbyers11
02-17-2016, 11:32 PM
Hope we don't have to question Ingram's killer instinct again. What a game. What rebounds. What shots.

Agreed. When we were down 8 at 68-60 coming out of the timeout after like 5 questionable foul calls (or non-calls) in a row went against us, Brandon took over. 3 straight TOUGH shots made to keep us close. Looked like he had a little bit of the Laettner MF'er in him

mdj
02-17-2016, 11:35 PM
Hope we don't have to question Ingram's killer instinct again. What a game. What rebounds. What shots.

He looked a little disinterested during the post game interview but I'll let it slide :)

flyingdutchdevil
02-17-2016, 11:40 PM
He looked a little disinterested during the post game interview but I'll let it slide :)

With Matt Jones potentially out, we should bring Ingram off the bench. Better yet, put him in the dog house ;)

BluDvlsN1
02-18-2016, 12:15 AM
Hope we don't have to question Ingram's killer instinct again. What a game. What rebounds. What shots.

5959

BluDvlsN1
02-18-2016, 01:23 PM
A Tweet last night via Blue Devil Nation:
"@BlueDevilNation: Brandon Ingram could barely make it to the team bus. He was spent. he gave his heart and soul for Duke and they won 74-73 in a stunner."

Doria
02-18-2016, 02:14 PM
My roommate, who is a recent Duke BB convert, has christened Ingram "Bringam" because Brandon always brings it :D