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Kedsy
11-11-2015, 03:59 PM
Hallelujah! The 2015-16 season is upon us. The first regular season game of the season is Friday night against Siena, and what better way to commemorate the occasion than with a DBR Phase report? Phase I runs for eight games, from the Siena game to the ACC/Big 10 Challenge game against Indiana on December 2. So, here goes…

1. CAN WE STAY HEALTHY?

As always, our Phase report starts with health. And after our two exhibition games, it’s easy to see why. Already, 67% of our captains have fallen with injuries. And while the word is that both Matt Jones (groin) and Amile Jefferson (ankle) are practicing at full speed, and that Matt is probable for Duke’s season opener (while Amile is day-to-day), the early injuries illustrate how fragile a college basketball season can be. Here’s hoping the team can stay healthy for the rest of the season.

2. HOW’S THE SCHEDULE LOOK?

Though it’s hard to say with any degree of reliability, based on Pomeroy’s pre-season rankings it looks like this early season slate will be a bit more difficult than last season’s. Our first eight games are against:

Siena (#171 in pre-season Pomeroy)
Bryant (#240)
Kentucky (in Chicago) (#2)
VCU (in NYC) (#53)
Georgetown (#27) or Wisconsin (#9) (in NYC)
Yale (#115)
Utah State (#96)
Indiana (#13)

Stacking those rankings up against last season’s first eight games (using Pomeroy’s post-season rankings), it looks like this:

2015-16: #2; #13; #9/#27; #53; #96; # 115; #171; #240
2014-15: #3; #15; #41; #54; #263; #293; #305; #321

So, the "top" of our schedule looks more challenging than last season (if we play Wisconsin it's much more challenging), and the "bottom" of our schedule looks worlds better than last season's array of cupcakes. In 2014-15, Pomeroy ranked Duke's non-conference SOS as 105th in the country (111th, not counting the NCAA Tournament). This season should be a lot better.

Incidentally, Pomeroy's pre-season rankings have Duke at #1. The AP poll has us at #5, putting us in the pre-season Top 5 for the third straight year, the pre-season top 10 for the 8th straight year, and the pre-season Top 15 for the 20th straight year. Duke has now been ranked in an NCAA-best 156 consecutive AP polls, the second-longest stretch in program history and the seventh-longest in NCAA history.

Even more amazing, our being ranked 5th by the AP marks the 19th consecutive season that Duke has been in the Top 5 at some point during the season.


3a. HOW GOOD ARE OUR ROOKIES?

Of course, a major reason our team is ranked so highly is because of Duke's stellar recruiting class, which is the #1 ranked class for the second straight year, and our 4th #1 ranked class since the RSCI began in 1998 (1999 and 2002 being the other two). It's also our fourth top 5 class in the past five years (9th top 5 class in the 18 seasons of the RSCI's existence), and seventh top 10 class in a row (12th top 10 class in the last 18 seasons). And, for what it's worth, next year's recruiting class will probably also be ranked #1, continuing Coach K's recruiting mastery. Duke fans are truly blessed.

But there's also been a lot of talk that this year's #1 recruiting class isn't up to the same level as other top classes. Considering that we have seven new faces (eight, if you include walk-on Brennan Besser) and only four returning veterans, how good our newcomers are will go a long way into determining whether Duke justifies our early top 5 ranking.

The freshmen include four players ranked in the top 25 by RSCI: Brandon Ingram (#4); Derryck Thornton (#13); Chase Jeter (#14); and Luke Kennard (#21). Since the RSCI was invented, Duke has never had more than four top 25 recruits, although we have had exactly four twice before (last season and in 2002). For completeness sake, here's the history:

NUMBER OF DUKE'S TOP 25 RECRUITS

2015-16: 4
2014-15: 4
2013-14: 1
2012-13: 2
2011-12: 1
2010-11: 1
2009-10: 3
2008-09: 1
2007-08: 2
2006-07: 3 (plus #28)
2005-06: 2
2004-05: 1
2003-04: 1
2002-03: 4
2001-02: 0
2000-01: 1
1999-00: 3 (plus #26)
1998-99: 1

So, how good are Duke's newcomers? Will they live up to their lofty ranking? I don't think we'll know the answer until we've seen them play in real games. We may not know until the end of the season.

An even more important question for many people is will the freshmen be able to play Duke defense? This has been an issue in recent years, and I've seen skepticism on the part of some DBR posters that we'll ever get back to playing vintage Duke D so long as Coach K continues to rely so heavily on freshmen. Again, we may not know the answer for awhile, but my response would be to look at the following lists:

List 1: Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, Greg Paulus
List 2: Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Justise Winslow

Freshmen who struggled playing Duke-style defense vs. freshmen who hit the ground running defensively. Sure, it's easier to master Coach K's defensive concepts the longer you've been around, but when it comes to first-year players, I'd argue it's simply an issue of some can, some can't. We just have to hope that (at least) Derryck and Brandon end up in the "can" camp.

As to how the freshmen have looked so far, I think it's promising but inconclusive. Brandon can clearly score, and can certainly get to the free throw line (he had an incredible 92% free throw rate in the exhibition games, and shot a serviceable 74% on those free throws), but his three-point shooting needs work (11% on 9 attempts in the exhibitions). Derryck and Luke can also fill the basket, but neither seem to be especially strong playmakers at this point in their careers. Chase is something of a stat magnet (21.6 pts per 40; 17.3 rebs per 40 in the exhibitions), but is getting mixed reviews as far as readiness. Sean Obi is a rebounding machine, but by all accounts is not quite ready for the big-time. Antonio Vrankovic and Justin Robinson both appear likely to redshirt.


3b. HOW GOOD ARE OUR VETERANS?

Our four returning players have all been supporting cogs for their entire Duke careers. Three of them are captains now, and they are all stepping into larger, different roles this season. How well they adapt to their new roles will be critical to how far this Duke team can go.

So, how good will they be? Again, it's hard to say at this point. But looking at their performances in the exhibition games, I'm cautiously optimistic.

And yes, I understand you can't tell much from exhibition performances against undermanned Division II teams, especially when it comes to big men, since the Division II teams tend to have much smaller personnel. But those caveats also applied last season, so perhaps a comparison of how our veterans performed this season vs. last season's exhibitions might have some value.

Whether it has value or not, here it is, converting both years' performances into per 40 minutes numbers:

AMILE JEFFERSON
Last year (per 40 mins): 15.4 pts; 16.4 rebs; 2.1 assts; 0 blks; 0 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 31.7 pts; 23.3 rebs; 11.7 assts; 6.7 blks; 3.3 stls

MARSHALL PLUMLEE
Last year (per 40 mins): 13.3 pts; 10.0 rebs; 2.2 assts; 1.1 blks; 2.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 23.8 pts; 14.3 rebs; 2.9 assts; 2.9 blks; 3.8 stls

MATT JONES
Last year (per 40 mins): 25.3 pts; 0 rebs; 0 assts; 0 blks; 3.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 28.6 pts; 3.8 rebs; 7.6 assts; 0 blks; 0 stls

GRAYSON ALLEN
Last year (per 40 mins): 27.8 pts; 4.4 rebs; 3.3 assts; 0 blks; 2.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 20.7 pts; 5.9 rebs; 8.2 assts; 1.5 blks; 2.2 stls


Amile's performance especially stands out. In the 24 minutes before he turned his ankle, he led Duke's team in per 40: points, field goals made, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds, assists, blocks, and fewest turnovers, as well as eFG% and true shooting percentage, and he wasn't too far behind Marshall and Brandon for most steals, either. Plus he's one of our best defenders. That's an exceptional performance, no matter the opponent. If he can continue his stellar play once the games count, it will mean very good things for Duke.

Marshall also seems poised to thrive in his senior season, although it remains to be seen if his minutes diminish as the season wears on and the freshmen grow into their roles. Matt and Grayson both seem to be more well-rounded than we saw last season. And Coach K has been quoted as saying, "Grayson Allen will be one of the best players in the country." So, like I said earlier, when it comes to our veterans, I'm cautiously optimistic.


4a. WILL DEFENSE BE OUR CALLING CARD?

Another thing about our upperclassmen is they're all defense-first players. Amile Jefferson was our best defensive communicator last season and showed excellent defensive positioning. He has also shown the ability to step up defensively in big games, most notably as a freshman against Doug McDermott in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, and then of course against Frank Kaminsky in last season's championship game. Marshall Plumlee was also a stalwart defender last season, and Matt Jones has found his way to the floor mostly because of his defensive ability. Grayson Allen showed flashes of strong D as well.

Derryck Thornton is an extremely quick guard who comes to Duke with the reputation of a defensive ballhawk, probably with as much defensive potential as any Duke guard since Chris Duhon in 2004. And Brandon Ingram might be the longest small forward in college today. Even 9th man Sean Obi has a good defensive reputation and as a freshman at Rice had the 3rd best defensive rebounding percentage in the nation (30.2%, significantly better than any Duke player has ever accomplished since they started statistically distinguishing offensive from defensive rebounds). So even though the jury's still out on Chase Jeter's and Luke Kennard's defensive chops, the team clearly has the potential to put the D in Duke better than any team we've seen around here in awhile.

But will they meet that potential? Again, we'll have to wait and see. Comparing how we did in the exhibitions against past Duke exhibition performance, we seem to be middle of the road (going back to 2005-06, which is as far as I can find stats for the exhibition games):

DEFENSIVE POINTS PER 100 POSSESSION DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy defensive rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)

2007-08: 55.5 (#8)
2008-09: 57.7 (#36; #17 pre-NCAAT)
2005-06: 64.8 (#18)
2009-10: 66.2 (#8; #4 pre-NCAAT)
2014-15: 70.6 (#12; #57 pre-NCAAT)
2006-07: 71.1 (#7)
2015-16: 74.3
2010-11: 75.4 (#21; #3 pre-NCAAT)
2011-12: 86.9 (#81; #62 pre-NCAAT)
2013-14: 87.4 (#116; #102 pre-NCAAT)
2012-13: 88.9 (#31; #25 pre-NCAAT)

Doesn't tell us too much, although our really bad defensive teams of 2012 and 2014 did show their true colors as early as the exhibitions. Also, it probably tells us that if defense is going to be Duke's calling card this season, there's a lot of work to do to get there. The fact that two of our strongest veteran defenders (Matt and Amile) combined for only five minutes (due to injury) in our second exhibition may also have affected our defensive performance for the worse.

Which brings up an interesting twist to this question. A lineup featuring Derryck, Matt, Brandon, Amile, and Marshall would appear to be a potential defensive juggernaut, with good size and a defensive advantage at all five positions. However, a much better offensive lineup of Derryck, Luke, Grayson, Brandon, and Amile would seem to have size issues and a potential defensive disadvantage at three, maybe four positions. Obviously there are a lot of mix-and-match possiblities, but how often we play with lineups similar to the first set vs. the second set may be the determining factor in how good Duke's defense will be overall. It's also very possible that we'll be a little Jekyll-and-Hyde defensively at different points in any particular game. Hopefully, Coach K will set his lineups to take the best advantage of the game situation, for example, to use an offensive-minded lineup to build a lead and a defensive-minded lineup to keep it.

One last comment on this topic: zone defense. With a 7-footer in the middle, the imposing length of Brandon and Amile, and several 6'5" guards to roam the perimeter, the occasional zone could be a devastating weapon in Duke's defensive arsenal. And in the exhibitions, Coach K mixed up his defenses, using several different zone looks. So it looks like zone is here to stay. And just a couple years ago who'd have thought we'd ever hear that at Duke under Coach K?


4b. WILL SCORING BE A PROBLEM?

There has been some concern among Duke aficionados as to where the points are going to come from for Duke this season. And if we do score, is it all going to be one-on-one? I have to admit I'm less concerned about this than a lot of people, if for no other reason than Coach K has assembled a top ten offense every year for the past seven (according to Pomeroy, anyway).

Brandon Ingram, Grayson Allen, Derryck Thornton, and Luke Kennard all seem to be able to fill the basket, and at least the first three can clearly find their own shot. Amile Jefferson has always been capable around the basket and appeared in the exhibitions to have raised the level of his offense significantly. Marshall Plumlee and Matt Jones both look at least a little improved on the offensive end, and Chase Jeter seems to have a knack for scoring as well.

Once again, comparing this year's Duke exhibition performance with past seasons, the early returns would seem to suggest this won't be a worry:

OFFENSIVE POINTS PER 100 POSSESSION DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy offensive rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)

2015-16: 141.2
2014-15: 135.8 (#3)
2005-06: 135.0 (#4)
2007-08: 133.5 (#19)
2008-09: 131.0 (#8; #4 pre-NCAAT)
2010-11: 130.8 (#5)
2006-07: 123.7 (#51)
2013-14: 121.8 (#2)
2009-10: 119.0 (#1)
2012-13: 117.3 (#5)
2011-12: 113.4 (#10; #9 pre-NCAAT)

So, while obviously this doesn't account for the comparative strength of opponents, this year's team had by far the best offensive performance in the exhibitions in at least the past 11 seasons.

This year's team also had the second-best exhibition assist-to-turnover ratio in at least the past 11 seasons, and the fourth-highest assists per possession. So maybe it won't be all one-on-one play, after all.

For completeness sake, here are those stats and a few others that might be of interest:



Year A/to A/Poss A/FG FT/Poss Diff100
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2016 2.15 26.2% 53.1% 19.7% 67.0
2015 1.75 28.2% 66.7% 22.7% 65.2
2014 1.74 21.8% 54.1% 24.5% 34.4
2013 1.00 18.2% 45.8% 20.5% 28.3
2012 1.09 23.8% 53.8% 15.2% 26.5
2011 2.23 34.2% 75.3% 19.3% 55.4
2010 1.10 25.8% 59.0% 14.7% 52.8
2009 1.41 25.7% 55.4% 17.9% 73.4
2008 1.69 24.7% 51.8% 18.7% 78.0
2007 1.50 25.7% 59.1% 19.7% 52.7
2006 1.66 28.8% 61.5% 20.8% 70.2


Key:
A/to = assist to turnover ratio
A/Poss = percentage of possessions ending with an assist
A/FG = percentage of field goals assisted
FT/Poss = percentage of possessions ending with free throws
Diff100 = point differential per 100 possessions (i.e., point spread if game were 100 possessions long)


With so many newcomers, one would think that our O will only get better as the season moves along. At this point I'm not worried about our offense.


5. HOW FAST WILL WE GO?

With the shot clock being lowered from 35 seconds to 30, the games almost by necessity should be faster-paced. On top of that, this year's Duke team has a plethora of speedy ballplayers, including a lightning quick point guard. Everybody loves to watch running, pressing teams, and the forced turnovers and easy scores would seem to be desirable outcomes. Many a pre-season has come with Coach K promising his team would run. But in the end, those promises rarely bear fruit.

Again, looking at the exhibitions, here's the relative speeds-of-play over the past 11 years:

POSSESSIONS PER GAME DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy adjusted tempo rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)

2007-08: 89.3 (#16)
2009-10: 89.1 (#249)
2010-11: 84.9 (#51)
2005-06: 83.3 (#30)
2015-16: 82.2
2008-09: 79.8 (#122)
2006-07: 76.0 (#202)
2013-14: 75.5 (#116)
2014-15: 74.4 (#114)
2012-13: 74.2 (#96)
2011-12: 73.7 (#96)

With the weird exception of 2009-10 and the lesser exception of 2006-07, this stat seems to be a decent predictor of pace. Or it would be if we knew how much the shorter shot clock contributed to faster pace in this year's exhibitions. My guess is we'll have more possessions per game than we've had in the recent past, and our overall tempo rank will be a little better than last year but not exceptionally so.


6a. WHO WILL START?

In our first exhibition game, we started our four veterans plus Brandon Ingram. In the second exhibition game, with Matt Jones out with an injury, Luke Kennard replaced Matt in the starting lineup. It seemed odd to many people around here (including me) that our only natural point guard, Derryck Thornton, didn't start, although it's worth noting that Derryck led the team in exhibition minutes (59). Our five leading minute-getters were Derryck (59), Brandon (56), Luke (56), Grayson (54), and Marshall (42), although obviously minutes were skewed by the injuries to (and resultant unavailability of) Matt and Amile. Still, it's interesting that the four guys who played the most were all perimeter players.

Moving forward, my guess is we'll see a lot of different starting lineups. It's possible, as the freshmen become more acclimatized to high-level college basketball, that one or more of them will replace the veterans in the starting lineup. Another question is whether Coach K will move from a traditional 2-big, 3-wing lineup to a more Coach K-like, 1-big, 4-wing lineup. It's something to look for, anyway.

6b. WHO WILL BE IN THE ROTATION?

A more interesting question to me is who will get rotation minutes? I think the answer is more complicated this year than it usually is, due to the uncertainty of what position Brandon Ingram will spend most of his time. Coach K has called Brandon a "six-foot-nine guard," and his rail thin physique would seem to fit more on the perimeter than in the paint, but we've often seen Coach K "go small" to get more scorers on the floor and take advantage of offensive mismatches. So, which way will he go?

The answer to that question will heavily affect our rotation. As many of you know, I developed a formula to predict Duke's rotations based on a combination of recruiting rank and college experience. But this year, the formula's prediction is different depending on whether Brandon is considered a perimeter player or an interior player (and let me note that this distinction is a defensive one -- for example, Ryan Kelly was an "interior" player for the purposes of the formula, even though he spent a lot of his time on the perimeter on offense).

If Brandon Ingram is a perimeter player, the formula predicts a seven-man rotation, as follows:

PERIMETER ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen
INTERIOR ROTATION: Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, Chase Jeter.

But if Brandon is an interior player, the formula would predict this seven-man rotation:

PERIMETER ROTATION: Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard
INTERIOR ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee

In the first scenario, Luke Kennard is the odd man out (although I have heard that the Duke staff thinks that Luke was underrated by the recruiting services, and if he were ranked just one or two spots higher then the formula would have predicted him as the 8th man, getting 10 or 12 minutes, in this scenario). In the second scenario, Chase Jeter ends up just missing the cut. Even before we heard from the Duke staff that Sean Obi isn't ready, the formula predicted he would be outside the rotation no matter what.

So, what's going to happen? My personal prediction is we split the difference. Brandon will spend significant time both on the perimeter and in the interior, and we will therefore have an 8-man rotation, with both Luke and Chase getting decent rotation minutes. If the exhibitions are a decent guide, it will be Chase that ends up as the 8th man, playing 10 or 12 mpg. But there's always the chance that he improves rapidly over time and eats into Marshall's minutes by the end of the season.


7. WHAT MAGIC WILL COACH K COME UP WITH?

It's amazing that after a 30-plus year career and with all his accomplishments that Coach K continues to innovate and surprise. I can't wait to see what new twists he comes up with this season.

8. GO DUKE!!!

Here's to another exhilarating ride. Go Duke!

Duke76
11-11-2015, 08:23 PM
thanks Kedsy and all the rest that make this EK board so enjoyable to read. Looking forward to another great season regardless of whether we win the last game of our season or not. Its gonna be fun to see them progress through the year. Can't wait to see how we react to the the first pressure situation of the year. The anticipation of the Kentucky game has already started for me.

I'd like to know our record over the years with Coach K when we face a Top 5 team in an early test. Bet it is pretty good compared to others.

Furniture
11-11-2015, 11:23 PM
Crazy long excellent post. I have read it twice....

sagegrouse
11-12-2015, 09:21 AM
[From Kedsy's Phase I Report]

6b. WHO WILL BE IN THE ROTATION?

A more interesting question to me is who will get rotation minutes? I think the answer is more complicated this year than it usually is, due to the uncertainty of what position Brandon Ingram will spend most of his time. Coach K has called Brandon a "six-foot-nine guard," and his rail thin physique would seem to fit more on the perimeter than in the paint, but we've often seen Coach K "go small" to get more scorers on the floor and take advantage of offensive mismatches. So, which way will he go?

The answer to that question will heavily affect our rotation. As many of you know, I developed a formula to predict Duke's rotations based on a combination of recruiting rank and college experience. But this year, the formula's prediction is different depending on whether Brandon is considered a perimeter player or an interior player (and let me note that this distinction is a defensive one -- for example, Ryan Kelly was an "interior" player for the purposes of the formula, even though he spent a lot of his time on the perimeter on offense).

If Brandon Ingram is a perimeter player, the formula predicts a seven-man rotation, as follows:

PERIMETER ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen
INTERIOR ROTATION: Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, Chase Jeter.

But if Brandon is an interior player, the formula would predict this seven-man rotation:

PERIMETER ROTATION: Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard
INTERIOR ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee

In the first scenario, Luke Kennard is the odd man out (although I have heard that the Duke staff thinks that Luke was underrated by the recruiting services, and if he were ranked just one or two spots higher then the formula would have predicted him as the 8th man, getting 10 or 12 minutes, in this scenario). In the second scenario, Chase Jeter ends up just missing the cut. Even before we heard from the Duke staff that Sean Obi isn't ready, the formula predicted he would be outside the rotation no matter what.

So, what's going to happen? My personal prediction is we split the difference. Brandon will spend significant time both on the perimeter and in the interior, and we will therefore have an 8-man rotation, with both Luke and Chase getting decent rotation minutes. If the exhibitions are a decent guide, it will be Chase that ends up as the 8th man, playing 10 or 12 mpg. But there's always the chance that he improves rapidly over time and eats into Marshall's minutes by the end of the season.

Kedsy, I believe the Duke rotation will be eight or nine men. Yes, I know, the history says otherwise, but K has changed his approach in the last couple of years. I think it is his Olympic experience, but I would accept the explanation that the world has changed in the one-and-done era, including the fact that top freshmen are far better prepared today than ten or twenty years ago.

Accordingly, the rotation will be:


Amile, Marshall, Chase
Brandon
Matt, Grayson, Luke, Derryck

The likelihood of either Chase or Luke not being part of the rotation seems to me to be vanishingly small (I don't know what that means, but the profs used to use that term in the Math Department). Moreover, both -- esp. Chase -- would be threats to transfer. I believe K has indicated that both would play and that Sean Obi, if he improves, has a chance for playing time as well.

Last year, I would argue that Duke had an eight-man rotation -- nine players had more than 300 minutes, but Grayson played significant minutes only after Rasheed left the team.

Kindly,
Sage

superdave
11-12-2015, 10:29 AM
Kedsy, I believe the Duke rotation will be eight or nine men. Yes, I know, the history says otherwise, but K has changed his approach in the last couple of years. I think it is his Olympic experience, but I would accept the explanation that the world has changed in the one-and-done era, including the fact that top freshmen are far better prepared today than ten or twenty years ago.

Accordingly, the rotation will be:


Amile, Marshall, Chase
Brandon
Matt, Grayson, Luke, Derryck

The likelihood of either Chase or Luke not being part of the rotation seems to me to be vanishingly small (I don't know what that means, but the profs used to use that term in the Math Department). Moreover, both -- esp. Chase -- would be threats to transfer. I believe K has indicated that both would play and that Sean Obi, if he improves, has a chance for playing time as well.

Last year, I would argue that Duke had an eight-man rotation -- nine players had more than 300 minutes, but Grayson played significant minutes only after Rasheed left the team.

Kindly,
Sage


I think foul trouble on the front line will play into this. Can Marshall play as aggressively as he likes to and stay out of foul trouble? Or does that keep a lid on his minutes and free more up for Jeter (an maybe some for Obi too)? Does Jeter foul enough to let some of his minutes leak to Obi? Freshmen big men dont always get rotations, shot blocking and hand checking right and get whistled a decent bit.

I also think a pressing/trapping defense will mean we run subs in and out more often and likely means a deeper bench. I dont see Coach K playing 40 minutes of hell, but a couple minutes of hell here and there could get Jeter and Kennard regular minutes in smaller doses. If they play 5-6 minutes in the first half of every game, does that make them a part of the rotation? I think so. I dont think double digit minutes is required as a hurdle. I think regular minutes, even in the big games, is the hurdle, although some may disagree.

Kedsy
11-12-2015, 11:01 AM
Last year, I would argue that Duke had an eight-man rotation -- nine players had more than 300 minutes, but Grayson played significant minutes only after Rasheed left the team.

Last season, in games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points, we played:

2 games in which 8 players had double-figure minutes.
8 games in which 7 players had double-figure minutes.
9 games in which 6 players had double-figure minutes.
1 game in which 5 players had double-figure minutes.

That doesn't sound like an 8-man rotation to me. It sounds like a six-and-a-half or maybe a seven-man rotation. The fact that nine players played more than 300 minutes just tells me it wasn't always the same seven guys who played (obvious since Rasheed left the team in mid-season).

I admit it could be a definitional issue. If we move the bar down to 6 or 7 or 8 minutes (from 10), then we might get to your 8-man rotation. But if Luke and/or Chase get 6 or 7 minutes a game, would we really consider them integral parts of the rotation?

That said, I agree with you that we could have an eight-man rotation this season, because of Brandon's positional flexibility. I hope so, anyway.

sagegrouse
11-12-2015, 01:29 PM
I think foul trouble on the front line will play into this. Can Marshall play as aggressively as he likes to and stay out of foul trouble? Or does that keep a lid on his minutes and free more up for Jeter (an maybe some for Obi too)? Does Jeter foul enough to let some of his minutes leak to Obi? Freshmen big men dont always get rotations, shot blocking and hand checking right and get whistled a decent bit.

I also think a pressing/trapping defense will mean we run subs in and out more often and likely means a deeper bench. I dont see Coach K playing 40 minutes of hell, but a couple minutes of hell here and there could get Jeter and Kennard regular minutes in smaller doses. If they play 5-6 minutes in the first half of every game, does that make them a part of the rotation? I think so. I dont think double digit minutes is required as a hurdle. I think regular minutes, even in the big games, is the hurdle, although some may disagree.

Somehow, I seem to use 10 MPG as a benchmark for "being in the rotation." Admittedly (what does that really mean?), such a player would get 20 MPG during blowouts. But averaging 8-9 MPG in conference and post-season is significant.

sagegrouse
11-12-2015, 01:39 PM
Last season, in games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points, we played:

2 games in which 8 players had double-figure minutes.
8 games in which 7 players had double-figure minutes.
9 games in which 6 players had double-figure minutes.
1 game in which 5 players had double-figure minutes.

That doesn't sound like an 8-man rotation to me. It sounds like a six-and-a-half or maybe a seven-man rotation. The fact that nine players played more than 300 minutes just tells me it wasn't always the same seven guys who played (obvious since Rasheed left the team in mid-season).

I admit it could be a definitional issue. If we move the bar down to 6 or 7 or 8 minutes (from 10), then we might get to your 8-man rotation. But if Luke and/or Chase get 6 or 7 minutes a game, would we really consider them integral parts of the rotation?

That said, I agree with you that we could have an eight-man rotation this season, because of Brandon's positional flexibility. I hope so, anyway.
I am also "grading the personnel at hand." Luke and Derryck, IMHO (where the H is AWOL), are more ready to play than Grayson was last year and will get their minutes. That means four guards will play significant minutes. Brandon will play. Then, if Chase has any offensive punch, he's gonna play, along with Amile and der Field Marshall.

Per your excellent analysis, the lineup and rotation may be opponent-specific. If eight players are "regularly" in the rotation, but typically only seven play 10 MPG, we have foundered on the definitional rocks -- but eight players averaging ten MPG would meet my criterion for "in the rotation."

superdave
11-12-2015, 03:54 PM
In a statistical ode to Kedsy, I thought it would be interesting to compare some of the bigger rookie classes at Duke to see what percentage of total team minutes they played and percentage of the team's points they scored. Here you go -

2015 - Okafor, Jones, Winslow, Allen
50.3% of the minutes
57.0% of the points

2007 - Scheyer, Henderson, Zoubek, Thomas
36.8% of the minutes
36.3% of the points

2006 - McRoberts, Paulus, Boykin, Boateng, Pocius
32.5% of minutes
21.7% of the points

2003 - Reddick, Williams, Randolph, Dockery, Thompson, Melchioni
38.6% of the minutes
42.8% of the points

2003 and 2015 had some scoring punch based on the fact that the freshmen were big scorers, namely JJ and Jahlil.

Here are the points per 40 minutes stats for each class -
2003 17.96
2006 10.86
2007 13.89
2015 17.98

Anyone care to guess who the top 5 players in points per 40 were?

Billy Dat
11-12-2015, 04:06 PM
First off, great job on an excellent Phase post.

I am fixated on the "How Good are our Rookies" segment, which obviously relates to the same segment about the veterans.

I am thinking about rookies vs vets for the other top ranked RSCI classes that you identified, who was "the man" on those teams, and how the season turned out. Most of the following is from memory so I may get a few things wrong:

99 class - Jason Williams, Boozer, Dunleavy et al. Primary returning vets Shane, Nate, C-Well, Sanders
They had a great year, especially in conference. Jason Williams was obviously great but C-Well was POY in Conference and Shane emerged as great too. The vets were vital but it was a pretty good vet vs rookie production mix

02 class - Redick, Shelden, Shav, Dock, Lee with veterans Dahntay, Duhon, Ewing, Casey
A very good but not great year. Similar to the prior example, the rookies (JJ and Shel) produced pretty well with the vets probably being more important on balance, but it was a good mix.

13 class - Jah, Tyus, Justise, Grayson, Quinn, Matt Jones, Amile, Marshall
Here we see the frosh playing the dominant role and the team becomes THE CHAMPS!

Then we have this year - which year is it most like? If we think about which guys on either side of the ledger became legit NBA players - as a proxy for talent - it looks like:

01-02:
3 rookies (Jay Will would have been a 10+ year pro), 1 veteran
02-03:
1 rookie, 2 vets
14-15
At least 2 rookies (we don't know about Tyus and Grayson), perhaps zero vets

And this year? It's too early to tell, I'd say Ingram may be the best bet.

All that is to say it feels like there are more unknowns then ever since we brought in this kind of talent because there are no sure fire pros among the vets and we really don't know how the rooks.

I'd say that is we see evidence that 3-4 of these guys can be career NBA players - and the pool is probably Grayson, Brandon, Luke, Chase and Derryck - then we are cooking with gas. If they aren't, it doesn't mean we aren't destined for great things, but K's approach usually is based on talents making reads and plays and not scrappers flawlessly executing a 'system' -cough-Wisconsin-cough.

Kedsy
11-12-2015, 04:06 PM
In a statistical ode to Kedsy, I thought it would be interesting to compare some of the bigger rookie classes at Duke to see what percentage of total team minutes they played and percentage of the team's points they scored. Here you go -

2015 - Okafor, Jones, Winslow, Allen
50.3% of the minutes
57.0% of the points

2007 - Scheyer, Henderson, Zoubek, Thomas
36.8% of the minutes
36.3% of the points

2006 - McRoberts, Paulus, Boykin, Boateng, Pocius
32.5% of minutes
21.7% of the points

2003 - Reddick, Williams, Randolph, Dockery, Thompson, Melchioni
38.6% of the minutes
42.8% of the points

2003 and 2015 had some scoring punch based on the fact that the freshmen were big scorers, namely JJ and Jahlil.

Here are the points per 40 minutes stats for each class -
2003 17.96
2006 10.86
2007 13.89
2015 17.98

Anyone care to guess who the top 5 players in points per 40 were?

Might as well add 2000 and 1998:

2000 -- J Williams, Boozer, Dunleavy, Sanders, Horvath, A Buckner
45.9% of minutes
46.0% of points (17.4 pts per 40)

1998 -- Will Avery, Elton Brand, Shane Battier, Chris Burgess
34.8% of minutes
32.7% of points (16.1 pts per 40)

superdave
11-12-2015, 04:17 PM
Might as well add 2000 and 1998:

2000 -- J Williams, Boozer, Dunleavy, Sanders, Horvath, A Buckner
45.9% of minutes
46.0% of points (17.4 pts per 40)

1998 -- Will Avery, Elton Brand, Shane Battier, Chris Burgess
34.8% of minutes
32.7% of points (16.1 pts per 40)

Good point. 2000 was pretty similar but not quite as dominant as 2015.

Here's 2010 and 2012 Kentucky classes that were so good -

2010 - Wall, Boogie, Bledsoe, Orton, Dodson, Hood
57.7% of the minutes
65.3% of the points


2012 - Davis, Kidd Gilchrist, Tegue, Wiltjer
53.6% of the minutes
53.1% of the points

The Kentucky freshmen class in 2010 played more of the minutes and scored more the team's points than this past year's Duke freshmen. But they were not National Champs!

Kedsy
11-12-2015, 04:25 PM
Then we have this year - which year is it most like? If we think about which guys on either side of the ledger became legit NBA players - as a proxy for talent - it looks like:

01-02:
3 rookies (Jay Will would have been a 10+ year pro), 1 veteran
02-03:
1 rookie, 2 vets
14-15
At least 2 rookies (we don't know about Tyus and Grayson), perhaps zero vets

And this year? It's too early to tell, I'd say Ingram may be the best bet.

Regarding 2002-03, I realize Shelden only stuck around six years in the NBA, but he was a lottery pick (and he did last six years). If you're counting Dahntay as a "legit" NBA player (only two seasons with 20+ mpg in his career), I think you ought to count Shelden too.

As far as which mix does this season most resemble, the answer may be none of them. But that's OK. This year's team should be able to score and they should be able to defend. Whether they can step up at crunch time or gel for the post-season, it's way too early to tell.

Kedsy
11-12-2015, 04:28 PM
Good point. 2000 was pretty similar but not quite as dominant as 2015.

Here's 2010 and 2012 Kentucky classes that were so good -

2010 - Wall, Boogie, Bledsoe, Orton, Dodson, Hood
57.7% of the minutes
65.3% of the points


2012 - Davis, Kidd Gilchrist, Tegue, Wiltjer
53.6% of the minutes
53.1% of the points

The Kentucky freshmen class in 2010 played more of the minutes and scored more the team's points than this past year's Duke freshmen. But they were not National Champs!

And here's 1982-83 Duke:

1983 -- J Dawkins, Alarie, D Henderson, Bilas, Jackman, W Williams
61.7% of the minutes
66.0% of the points (17.1 pts per 40)

They weren't national champs, either. But Welden Williams scored 25 points per 40 minutes!

superdave
11-12-2015, 04:34 PM
Here's the top 5 points per 40 freshmen, of the ones I looked at -

Okafor 22.99
Randolph! 21.99
Reddick 19.55
Grayson Allen 19.00
Winslow 17.33

I guess you could look at alpha freshmen like Jabari and Luol, but I'd argue that these guys came in with big freshmen classes so it's a much different scenario.

Billy Dat
11-12-2015, 04:53 PM
Regarding 2002-03, I realize Shelden only stuck around six years in the NBA, but he was a lottery pick (and he did last six years). If you're counting Dahntay as a "legit" NBA player (only two seasons with 20+ mpg in his career), I think you ought to count Shelden too.

That's fair. Shelden was an NBA-level talent who just couldn't put it together when he got to the NBA. It's tempting to say that Dahntay "wanted it more" but Shelden kept playing a year in France and then a year in China after clearing $12MM in the NBA so he clearly had some fire to keep playing.

Back to the rookies, I keep thinking of 2002-03 when Shav was the anointed star but JJ became the man. I wonder if we'll see something similar with everyone anointing Brandon. The preseason makes one think Brandon is the kind of position-less player K will never tire of plugging in anywhere to get a mismatch.

Kedsy
11-12-2015, 05:27 PM
Here's the top 5 points per 40 freshmen, of the ones I looked at -

Okafor 22.99
Randolph! 21.99
Reddick 19.55
Grayson Allen 19.00
Winslow 17.33

I guess you could look at alpha freshmen like Jabari and Luol, but I'd argue that these guys came in with big freshmen classes so it's a much different scenario.

Elton Brand had 22.8, Johnny Dawkins had 20.2, Mark Alarie had 18.5, and Will Avery had 17.6. And don't forget Weldon Williams*. ;)



* - Weldon scored 25.0 pts per 40, best of them all, but he only played 40 minutes his freshman season.

NSDukeFan
11-13-2015, 09:10 AM
Great phase report!

I like that the team seems to be back to playing higher ranked pre-conference opponents as it seemed to me last year was a bit of an aberration with so many teams ranked 300 or worse. Duke shouldn't lose any games to teams ranked 150-200, but at least they tend to be stronger teams, with more competitive games even if there is the risk of a Vermont or a loss in there.

As always, I am excited to see how this year develops and how all the players grow.

I agree completely with your point about coach K. No matter how much we think about the season and project what might happen and how much players might play and what the rotation(s) might look like, he will always come up with something surprising. Another great reason to enjoy cheering for Duke.

Lar77
11-13-2015, 11:12 AM
Kedsy,

Thank you for this great opening report. How does KenPom figure preseason rankings? I'm surprised that Duke would be #1 given the hype down the road.

As you note, this is a team that seems to have a lot of flexibility and it will be interesting to see how K uses it. Based on the exhibitions, Brandon could be used often as a guard. Kennard is too good to not see a lot of time, but understand your analysis about who gets squeezed.

Home opener tonight. Best time of the year.

Kedsy
11-13-2015, 11:46 AM
How does KenPom figure preseason rankings?

This may help answer your question: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/preseason_ratings_2015

CDu
11-13-2015, 11:58 AM
99 class - Jason Williams, Boozer, Dunleavy et al. Primary returning vets Shane, Nate, C-Well, Sanders
They had a great year, especially in conference. Jason Williams was obviously great but C-Well was POY in Conference and Shane emerged as great too. The vets were vital but it was a pretty good vet vs rookie production mix

All that is to say it feels like there are more unknowns then ever since we brought in this kind of talent because there are no sure fire pros among the vets and we really don't know how the rooks.

I'd say that is we see evidence that 3-4 of these guys can be career NBA players - and the pool is probably Grayson, Brandon, Luke, Chase and Derryck - then we are cooking with gas. If they aren't, it doesn't mean we aren't destined for great things, but K's approach usually is based on talents making reads and plays and not scrappers flawlessly executing a 'system' -cough-Wisconsin-cough.

Minor quibble, but the 1999 freshman class included Sanders, so he was part of the "et al" in that group and not a returning vet.

I agree that there is more uncertainty in this group than in recent years, but I do think the talent is there. I suspect that Ingram, Jeter, Thornton, and others (probably Allen and Kennard) will eventually play in the NBA.

I agree with those who say it is likely to be an 8-man rotation. I say this for a couple of reasons:
1. Coach K has tended to have an expanded rotation only when there hasn't been a clear differential in talent among the top rotation guys; and
2. We don't have a clear presence at center, so I expect that position to be by committee.

I think we will have to play at least 3 of Jefferson, Plumlee, Jeter, and Obi for significant minutes. And I don't think there is a clear enough difference between the guards to see one guy fall out of the rotation. I think one of Jeter and Obi will get squeezed out (at this point, it looks like Obi), but I think the 5 main perimeter guys will all get significant run.

flyingdutchdevil
11-13-2015, 12:30 PM
Minor quibble, but the 1999 freshman class included Sanders, so he was part of the "et al" in that group and not a returning vet.

I agree that there is more uncertainty in this group than in recent years, but I do think the talent is there. I suspect that Ingram, Jeter, Thornton, and others (probably Allen and Kennard) will eventually play in the NBA.

I agree with those who say it is likely to be an 8-man rotation. I say this for a couple of reasons:
1. Coach K has tended to have an expanded rotation only when there hasn't been a clear differential in talent among the top rotation guys; and
2. We don't have a clear presence at center, so I expect that position to be by committee.

I think we will have to play at least 3 of Jefferson, Plumlee, Jeter, and Obi for significant minutes. And I don't think there is a clear enough difference between the guards to see one guy fall out of the rotation. I think one of Jeter and Obi will get squeezed out (at this point, it looks like Obi), but I think the 5 main perimeter guys will all get significant run.

Yeah. I agree with this. I previously thought that Kennard (and possibly Jeter) would get squeezed, but it looks like Obi is the one (unless Coach K is playing a deception game during exhibitions, which I highly doubt). I agree that all perimeter players will get minutes, but I think we will see some prioritization come the middle of ACC player where 3 (maybe 4) of the players will be getting significantly more minutes than the other 2 (or 1). I'm not saying that those 2 (or 1) will be out of the rotation, but they may be playing 10-15 a game.

Billy Dat
11-13-2015, 12:31 PM
Laura Keeley has a new video "5 things I am looking for" piece that is an nice accompaniment to this phase post:
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article44490174.html

flyingdutchdevil
11-13-2015, 12:47 PM
Laura Keeley has a new video "5 things I am looking for" piece that is an nice accompaniment to this phase post:
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article44490174.html

Laura really likes to say "Grayson Allen"

Neals384
12-03-2015, 11:29 AM
Lotta discussion upthread about minutes. Here are the actual minutes for phase I (total minutes divided by 8).



Name
Average


Allen
33:03


Jefferson
30:45


Jones
29:50


Thornton
25:42


Ingram
25:28


Plumlee
25:12


Kennard
20:59


Jeter
06:31


Vrankovic
01:11


Obi
00:40


Pagliuca
00:40

ChillinDuke
12-03-2015, 01:18 PM
OK, last update of the minutes forecast spreadsheet for now...I'll be off the forum for a while. If Duke has an overseas trip, I'll check in again and "close the entries" before that trip. Did you all know there are bragging rights and sporks for the most accurate forecast?




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Antonio
Walk-ons
Total


gumbomoop
22
25
16
30
25
22
18
25
18
0
0
201


neals384
25
30
13
25
25
15
17
30
20
0
0
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
30
25
10
20
30
20
0
0
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
0
200


CDu
28
28
16
28
22
24
12
22
20
0
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
0
200


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
0
200


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
2
2
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
0
2
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
0
200


mr. synellinden
22
32
8
30
32
16
10
26
24
0
0
200


Troublemaker
30
35
20
25
30
20
10
30
0
0
0
200


flyingdutchdevil
27.5
32.5
15
25
25
10
12.5
27.5
22.5


197.5


79-77
28
33
12
31
25
12
15
28
16


200


Average
27.2
29.8
12.4
27.8
26.9
15.7
16.6
27.5
15.8
0.1
0.3



Std Dev
4.4
2.9
5.5
3.0
2.9
4.9
4.3
2.7
6.7
0.5
0.7




Was this the final "cool spreadsheet"? A lot of decent guesses in here.

- Chillin

ETA: Sorry, I still don't get how to link correctly when posting. [embarrassed]

CDu
12-03-2015, 01:40 PM
Was this the final "cool spreadsheet"? A lot of decent guesses in here.

- Chillin

ETA: Sorry, I still don't get how to link correctly when posting. [embarrassed]

Nah, the final one is here:


OK, here is the final list.




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others
Total


79-77
28
33
12
31
25
12
15
28
16
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
200


CDu
28
32
10
30
25
20
15
25
15
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
200


DallasDevil
27
33
11
23
30
21
17
29
7
3
201


David Bunklley
20
29
16
25
27
18
17
30
18
0
200


DukieTiger
28
27
16
20
32
20
23
29
5
0
200


flyingdutchdevil
30
32.5
15
25
25
10
12.5
27.5
22.5
0
200


Furniture
30
30
14
26
25
20
20
25
10
0
200


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
200


gumbomoop
28
30
11
20
29
27
24
27
4
0
200


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
4
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
26
27
20
20
27
15
0
200


jipops
32
29
12
24
33
13
21
28
6
2
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
2
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
200


kAzE
28
31
8
33
32
12
24
30
2
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
200


luvdahops
30
30
12
27
28
20
20
25
8
0
200


mattman91
30
32
7
27
32
18
20
30
4
0
200


MChambers
28
28
19
23
26
24
20
27
5
0
200


mr. synellinden
28
32
12
30
32
16
16
26
8
0
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
200


neals384
30
30
10
25
25
18
20
30
12
0
200


NSDukeFan
29
31
12
26
28
17
20
28
8
1
200


phaedrus
27
31
14
28
28
18
20
24
8
2
200


sagegrouse
28
28
15
25
28
20
20
28
5
3
200


timmy c
30
32
12
15
32
26
22
29
2
0
200


Troublemaker
30
30
10
20
30
20
25
30
3
2
200


wherethehellami
28
29
10
25
30
20
20
30
7
1
200


Average
28.4
30.2
11.9
25.9
28.2
17.4
19.3
27.8
10.3
0.7
200.0



OK, later on when I'm scoring this, I'm also going to calculate a score for "Average". Is it possible that the average of all our guesses is the best guess? Crowd sourcing of minutes?

Neals384
12-03-2015, 03:14 PM
During the offseason, we had lots of discussion about Brandon's role: would he play the 3 or the 4. I've summarized the minutes for phase 1, and it turns out he played 44% of his minutes at the 4 and 48% of his minutes at the 3. The rest of the time he was at the 5, or teamed with Vrank or Obi - I separated those out as they mostly represent garbage time.

So, is Duke better with Brandon at the 3 or at the 4? With Brandon at the 3, Duke averaged +20 per 40 minutes. With Brandon at the 4, Duke averaged +14 per 40 minutes. Too soon to draw any real conclusions, since some of this comes from cupcake games and a lot depends on matchups.



Lineup
'+/-
Mins
Per 40
Avg. Mins
Pct Time


Ingram at the 5 (no MPIII, Jeff or Jeter)
+7
04:20
64.6
00:33
2.13%


Ingram at the 4 (with MPIII, Jeff or Jeter)
+32
01:30:33
14.1
11:19
44.45%


Ingram at the 3 (with 2 bigs)
+50
01:38:30
20.3
12:19
48.35%


With Obi or Vrank
-18
00:10:21
-69.6
01:18
5.08%


Ingram Total
71
03:23:44
13.9
25:28
100.00%