Kedsy
11-11-2015, 03:59 PM
Hallelujah! The 2015-16 season is upon us. The first regular season game of the season is Friday night against Siena, and what better way to commemorate the occasion than with a DBR Phase report? Phase I runs for eight games, from the Siena game to the ACC/Big 10 Challenge game against Indiana on December 2. So, here goes…
1. CAN WE STAY HEALTHY?
As always, our Phase report starts with health. And after our two exhibition games, it’s easy to see why. Already, 67% of our captains have fallen with injuries. And while the word is that both Matt Jones (groin) and Amile Jefferson (ankle) are practicing at full speed, and that Matt is probable for Duke’s season opener (while Amile is day-to-day), the early injuries illustrate how fragile a college basketball season can be. Here’s hoping the team can stay healthy for the rest of the season.
2. HOW’S THE SCHEDULE LOOK?
Though it’s hard to say with any degree of reliability, based on Pomeroy’s pre-season rankings it looks like this early season slate will be a bit more difficult than last season’s. Our first eight games are against:
Siena (#171 in pre-season Pomeroy)
Bryant (#240)
Kentucky (in Chicago) (#2)
VCU (in NYC) (#53)
Georgetown (#27) or Wisconsin (#9) (in NYC)
Yale (#115)
Utah State (#96)
Indiana (#13)
Stacking those rankings up against last season’s first eight games (using Pomeroy’s post-season rankings), it looks like this:
2015-16: #2; #13; #9/#27; #53; #96; # 115; #171; #240
2014-15: #3; #15; #41; #54; #263; #293; #305; #321
So, the "top" of our schedule looks more challenging than last season (if we play Wisconsin it's much more challenging), and the "bottom" of our schedule looks worlds better than last season's array of cupcakes. In 2014-15, Pomeroy ranked Duke's non-conference SOS as 105th in the country (111th, not counting the NCAA Tournament). This season should be a lot better.
Incidentally, Pomeroy's pre-season rankings have Duke at #1. The AP poll has us at #5, putting us in the pre-season Top 5 for the third straight year, the pre-season top 10 for the 8th straight year, and the pre-season Top 15 for the 20th straight year. Duke has now been ranked in an NCAA-best 156 consecutive AP polls, the second-longest stretch in program history and the seventh-longest in NCAA history.
Even more amazing, our being ranked 5th by the AP marks the 19th consecutive season that Duke has been in the Top 5 at some point during the season.
3a. HOW GOOD ARE OUR ROOKIES?
Of course, a major reason our team is ranked so highly is because of Duke's stellar recruiting class, which is the #1 ranked class for the second straight year, and our 4th #1 ranked class since the RSCI began in 1998 (1999 and 2002 being the other two). It's also our fourth top 5 class in the past five years (9th top 5 class in the 18 seasons of the RSCI's existence), and seventh top 10 class in a row (12th top 10 class in the last 18 seasons). And, for what it's worth, next year's recruiting class will probably also be ranked #1, continuing Coach K's recruiting mastery. Duke fans are truly blessed.
But there's also been a lot of talk that this year's #1 recruiting class isn't up to the same level as other top classes. Considering that we have seven new faces (eight, if you include walk-on Brennan Besser) and only four returning veterans, how good our newcomers are will go a long way into determining whether Duke justifies our early top 5 ranking.
The freshmen include four players ranked in the top 25 by RSCI: Brandon Ingram (#4); Derryck Thornton (#13); Chase Jeter (#14); and Luke Kennard (#21). Since the RSCI was invented, Duke has never had more than four top 25 recruits, although we have had exactly four twice before (last season and in 2002). For completeness sake, here's the history:
NUMBER OF DUKE'S TOP 25 RECRUITS
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 4
2013-14: 1
2012-13: 2
2011-12: 1
2010-11: 1
2009-10: 3
2008-09: 1
2007-08: 2
2006-07: 3 (plus #28)
2005-06: 2
2004-05: 1
2003-04: 1
2002-03: 4
2001-02: 0
2000-01: 1
1999-00: 3 (plus #26)
1998-99: 1
So, how good are Duke's newcomers? Will they live up to their lofty ranking? I don't think we'll know the answer until we've seen them play in real games. We may not know until the end of the season.
An even more important question for many people is will the freshmen be able to play Duke defense? This has been an issue in recent years, and I've seen skepticism on the part of some DBR posters that we'll ever get back to playing vintage Duke D so long as Coach K continues to rely so heavily on freshmen. Again, we may not know the answer for awhile, but my response would be to look at the following lists:
List 1: Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, Greg Paulus
List 2: Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Justise Winslow
Freshmen who struggled playing Duke-style defense vs. freshmen who hit the ground running defensively. Sure, it's easier to master Coach K's defensive concepts the longer you've been around, but when it comes to first-year players, I'd argue it's simply an issue of some can, some can't. We just have to hope that (at least) Derryck and Brandon end up in the "can" camp.
As to how the freshmen have looked so far, I think it's promising but inconclusive. Brandon can clearly score, and can certainly get to the free throw line (he had an incredible 92% free throw rate in the exhibition games, and shot a serviceable 74% on those free throws), but his three-point shooting needs work (11% on 9 attempts in the exhibitions). Derryck and Luke can also fill the basket, but neither seem to be especially strong playmakers at this point in their careers. Chase is something of a stat magnet (21.6 pts per 40; 17.3 rebs per 40 in the exhibitions), but is getting mixed reviews as far as readiness. Sean Obi is a rebounding machine, but by all accounts is not quite ready for the big-time. Antonio Vrankovic and Justin Robinson both appear likely to redshirt.
3b. HOW GOOD ARE OUR VETERANS?
Our four returning players have all been supporting cogs for their entire Duke careers. Three of them are captains now, and they are all stepping into larger, different roles this season. How well they adapt to their new roles will be critical to how far this Duke team can go.
So, how good will they be? Again, it's hard to say at this point. But looking at their performances in the exhibition games, I'm cautiously optimistic.
And yes, I understand you can't tell much from exhibition performances against undermanned Division II teams, especially when it comes to big men, since the Division II teams tend to have much smaller personnel. But those caveats also applied last season, so perhaps a comparison of how our veterans performed this season vs. last season's exhibitions might have some value.
Whether it has value or not, here it is, converting both years' performances into per 40 minutes numbers:
AMILE JEFFERSON
Last year (per 40 mins): 15.4 pts; 16.4 rebs; 2.1 assts; 0 blks; 0 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 31.7 pts; 23.3 rebs; 11.7 assts; 6.7 blks; 3.3 stls
MARSHALL PLUMLEE
Last year (per 40 mins): 13.3 pts; 10.0 rebs; 2.2 assts; 1.1 blks; 2.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 23.8 pts; 14.3 rebs; 2.9 assts; 2.9 blks; 3.8 stls
MATT JONES
Last year (per 40 mins): 25.3 pts; 0 rebs; 0 assts; 0 blks; 3.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 28.6 pts; 3.8 rebs; 7.6 assts; 0 blks; 0 stls
GRAYSON ALLEN
Last year (per 40 mins): 27.8 pts; 4.4 rebs; 3.3 assts; 0 blks; 2.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 20.7 pts; 5.9 rebs; 8.2 assts; 1.5 blks; 2.2 stls
Amile's performance especially stands out. In the 24 minutes before he turned his ankle, he led Duke's team in per 40: points, field goals made, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds, assists, blocks, and fewest turnovers, as well as eFG% and true shooting percentage, and he wasn't too far behind Marshall and Brandon for most steals, either. Plus he's one of our best defenders. That's an exceptional performance, no matter the opponent. If he can continue his stellar play once the games count, it will mean very good things for Duke.
Marshall also seems poised to thrive in his senior season, although it remains to be seen if his minutes diminish as the season wears on and the freshmen grow into their roles. Matt and Grayson both seem to be more well-rounded than we saw last season. And Coach K has been quoted as saying, "Grayson Allen will be one of the best players in the country." So, like I said earlier, when it comes to our veterans, I'm cautiously optimistic.
4a. WILL DEFENSE BE OUR CALLING CARD?
Another thing about our upperclassmen is they're all defense-first players. Amile Jefferson was our best defensive communicator last season and showed excellent defensive positioning. He has also shown the ability to step up defensively in big games, most notably as a freshman against Doug McDermott in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, and then of course against Frank Kaminsky in last season's championship game. Marshall Plumlee was also a stalwart defender last season, and Matt Jones has found his way to the floor mostly because of his defensive ability. Grayson Allen showed flashes of strong D as well.
Derryck Thornton is an extremely quick guard who comes to Duke with the reputation of a defensive ballhawk, probably with as much defensive potential as any Duke guard since Chris Duhon in 2004. And Brandon Ingram might be the longest small forward in college today. Even 9th man Sean Obi has a good defensive reputation and as a freshman at Rice had the 3rd best defensive rebounding percentage in the nation (30.2%, significantly better than any Duke player has ever accomplished since they started statistically distinguishing offensive from defensive rebounds). So even though the jury's still out on Chase Jeter's and Luke Kennard's defensive chops, the team clearly has the potential to put the D in Duke better than any team we've seen around here in awhile.
But will they meet that potential? Again, we'll have to wait and see. Comparing how we did in the exhibitions against past Duke exhibition performance, we seem to be middle of the road (going back to 2005-06, which is as far as I can find stats for the exhibition games):
DEFENSIVE POINTS PER 100 POSSESSION DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy defensive rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)
2007-08: 55.5 (#8)
2008-09: 57.7 (#36; #17 pre-NCAAT)
2005-06: 64.8 (#18)
2009-10: 66.2 (#8; #4 pre-NCAAT)
2014-15: 70.6 (#12; #57 pre-NCAAT)
2006-07: 71.1 (#7)
2015-16: 74.3
2010-11: 75.4 (#21; #3 pre-NCAAT)
2011-12: 86.9 (#81; #62 pre-NCAAT)
2013-14: 87.4 (#116; #102 pre-NCAAT)
2012-13: 88.9 (#31; #25 pre-NCAAT)
Doesn't tell us too much, although our really bad defensive teams of 2012 and 2014 did show their true colors as early as the exhibitions. Also, it probably tells us that if defense is going to be Duke's calling card this season, there's a lot of work to do to get there. The fact that two of our strongest veteran defenders (Matt and Amile) combined for only five minutes (due to injury) in our second exhibition may also have affected our defensive performance for the worse.
Which brings up an interesting twist to this question. A lineup featuring Derryck, Matt, Brandon, Amile, and Marshall would appear to be a potential defensive juggernaut, with good size and a defensive advantage at all five positions. However, a much better offensive lineup of Derryck, Luke, Grayson, Brandon, and Amile would seem to have size issues and a potential defensive disadvantage at three, maybe four positions. Obviously there are a lot of mix-and-match possiblities, but how often we play with lineups similar to the first set vs. the second set may be the determining factor in how good Duke's defense will be overall. It's also very possible that we'll be a little Jekyll-and-Hyde defensively at different points in any particular game. Hopefully, Coach K will set his lineups to take the best advantage of the game situation, for example, to use an offensive-minded lineup to build a lead and a defensive-minded lineup to keep it.
One last comment on this topic: zone defense. With a 7-footer in the middle, the imposing length of Brandon and Amile, and several 6'5" guards to roam the perimeter, the occasional zone could be a devastating weapon in Duke's defensive arsenal. And in the exhibitions, Coach K mixed up his defenses, using several different zone looks. So it looks like zone is here to stay. And just a couple years ago who'd have thought we'd ever hear that at Duke under Coach K?
4b. WILL SCORING BE A PROBLEM?
There has been some concern among Duke aficionados as to where the points are going to come from for Duke this season. And if we do score, is it all going to be one-on-one? I have to admit I'm less concerned about this than a lot of people, if for no other reason than Coach K has assembled a top ten offense every year for the past seven (according to Pomeroy, anyway).
Brandon Ingram, Grayson Allen, Derryck Thornton, and Luke Kennard all seem to be able to fill the basket, and at least the first three can clearly find their own shot. Amile Jefferson has always been capable around the basket and appeared in the exhibitions to have raised the level of his offense significantly. Marshall Plumlee and Matt Jones both look at least a little improved on the offensive end, and Chase Jeter seems to have a knack for scoring as well.
Once again, comparing this year's Duke exhibition performance with past seasons, the early returns would seem to suggest this won't be a worry:
OFFENSIVE POINTS PER 100 POSSESSION DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy offensive rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)
2015-16: 141.2
2014-15: 135.8 (#3)
2005-06: 135.0 (#4)
2007-08: 133.5 (#19)
2008-09: 131.0 (#8; #4 pre-NCAAT)
2010-11: 130.8 (#5)
2006-07: 123.7 (#51)
2013-14: 121.8 (#2)
2009-10: 119.0 (#1)
2012-13: 117.3 (#5)
2011-12: 113.4 (#10; #9 pre-NCAAT)
So, while obviously this doesn't account for the comparative strength of opponents, this year's team had by far the best offensive performance in the exhibitions in at least the past 11 seasons.
This year's team also had the second-best exhibition assist-to-turnover ratio in at least the past 11 seasons, and the fourth-highest assists per possession. So maybe it won't be all one-on-one play, after all.
For completeness sake, here are those stats and a few others that might be of interest:
Year A/to A/Poss A/FG FT/Poss Diff100
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2016 2.15 26.2% 53.1% 19.7% 67.0
2015 1.75 28.2% 66.7% 22.7% 65.2
2014 1.74 21.8% 54.1% 24.5% 34.4
2013 1.00 18.2% 45.8% 20.5% 28.3
2012 1.09 23.8% 53.8% 15.2% 26.5
2011 2.23 34.2% 75.3% 19.3% 55.4
2010 1.10 25.8% 59.0% 14.7% 52.8
2009 1.41 25.7% 55.4% 17.9% 73.4
2008 1.69 24.7% 51.8% 18.7% 78.0
2007 1.50 25.7% 59.1% 19.7% 52.7
2006 1.66 28.8% 61.5% 20.8% 70.2
Key:
A/to = assist to turnover ratio
A/Poss = percentage of possessions ending with an assist
A/FG = percentage of field goals assisted
FT/Poss = percentage of possessions ending with free throws
Diff100 = point differential per 100 possessions (i.e., point spread if game were 100 possessions long)
With so many newcomers, one would think that our O will only get better as the season moves along. At this point I'm not worried about our offense.
5. HOW FAST WILL WE GO?
With the shot clock being lowered from 35 seconds to 30, the games almost by necessity should be faster-paced. On top of that, this year's Duke team has a plethora of speedy ballplayers, including a lightning quick point guard. Everybody loves to watch running, pressing teams, and the forced turnovers and easy scores would seem to be desirable outcomes. Many a pre-season has come with Coach K promising his team would run. But in the end, those promises rarely bear fruit.
Again, looking at the exhibitions, here's the relative speeds-of-play over the past 11 years:
POSSESSIONS PER GAME DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy adjusted tempo rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)
2007-08: 89.3 (#16)
2009-10: 89.1 (#249)
2010-11: 84.9 (#51)
2005-06: 83.3 (#30)
2015-16: 82.2
2008-09: 79.8 (#122)
2006-07: 76.0 (#202)
2013-14: 75.5 (#116)
2014-15: 74.4 (#114)
2012-13: 74.2 (#96)
2011-12: 73.7 (#96)
With the weird exception of 2009-10 and the lesser exception of 2006-07, this stat seems to be a decent predictor of pace. Or it would be if we knew how much the shorter shot clock contributed to faster pace in this year's exhibitions. My guess is we'll have more possessions per game than we've had in the recent past, and our overall tempo rank will be a little better than last year but not exceptionally so.
6a. WHO WILL START?
In our first exhibition game, we started our four veterans plus Brandon Ingram. In the second exhibition game, with Matt Jones out with an injury, Luke Kennard replaced Matt in the starting lineup. It seemed odd to many people around here (including me) that our only natural point guard, Derryck Thornton, didn't start, although it's worth noting that Derryck led the team in exhibition minutes (59). Our five leading minute-getters were Derryck (59), Brandon (56), Luke (56), Grayson (54), and Marshall (42), although obviously minutes were skewed by the injuries to (and resultant unavailability of) Matt and Amile. Still, it's interesting that the four guys who played the most were all perimeter players.
Moving forward, my guess is we'll see a lot of different starting lineups. It's possible, as the freshmen become more acclimatized to high-level college basketball, that one or more of them will replace the veterans in the starting lineup. Another question is whether Coach K will move from a traditional 2-big, 3-wing lineup to a more Coach K-like, 1-big, 4-wing lineup. It's something to look for, anyway.
6b. WHO WILL BE IN THE ROTATION?
A more interesting question to me is who will get rotation minutes? I think the answer is more complicated this year than it usually is, due to the uncertainty of what position Brandon Ingram will spend most of his time. Coach K has called Brandon a "six-foot-nine guard," and his rail thin physique would seem to fit more on the perimeter than in the paint, but we've often seen Coach K "go small" to get more scorers on the floor and take advantage of offensive mismatches. So, which way will he go?
The answer to that question will heavily affect our rotation. As many of you know, I developed a formula to predict Duke's rotations based on a combination of recruiting rank and college experience. But this year, the formula's prediction is different depending on whether Brandon is considered a perimeter player or an interior player (and let me note that this distinction is a defensive one -- for example, Ryan Kelly was an "interior" player for the purposes of the formula, even though he spent a lot of his time on the perimeter on offense).
If Brandon Ingram is a perimeter player, the formula predicts a seven-man rotation, as follows:
PERIMETER ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen
INTERIOR ROTATION: Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, Chase Jeter.
But if Brandon is an interior player, the formula would predict this seven-man rotation:
PERIMETER ROTATION: Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard
INTERIOR ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee
In the first scenario, Luke Kennard is the odd man out (although I have heard that the Duke staff thinks that Luke was underrated by the recruiting services, and if he were ranked just one or two spots higher then the formula would have predicted him as the 8th man, getting 10 or 12 minutes, in this scenario). In the second scenario, Chase Jeter ends up just missing the cut. Even before we heard from the Duke staff that Sean Obi isn't ready, the formula predicted he would be outside the rotation no matter what.
So, what's going to happen? My personal prediction is we split the difference. Brandon will spend significant time both on the perimeter and in the interior, and we will therefore have an 8-man rotation, with both Luke and Chase getting decent rotation minutes. If the exhibitions are a decent guide, it will be Chase that ends up as the 8th man, playing 10 or 12 mpg. But there's always the chance that he improves rapidly over time and eats into Marshall's minutes by the end of the season.
7. WHAT MAGIC WILL COACH K COME UP WITH?
It's amazing that after a 30-plus year career and with all his accomplishments that Coach K continues to innovate and surprise. I can't wait to see what new twists he comes up with this season.
8. GO DUKE!!!
Here's to another exhilarating ride. Go Duke!
1. CAN WE STAY HEALTHY?
As always, our Phase report starts with health. And after our two exhibition games, it’s easy to see why. Already, 67% of our captains have fallen with injuries. And while the word is that both Matt Jones (groin) and Amile Jefferson (ankle) are practicing at full speed, and that Matt is probable for Duke’s season opener (while Amile is day-to-day), the early injuries illustrate how fragile a college basketball season can be. Here’s hoping the team can stay healthy for the rest of the season.
2. HOW’S THE SCHEDULE LOOK?
Though it’s hard to say with any degree of reliability, based on Pomeroy’s pre-season rankings it looks like this early season slate will be a bit more difficult than last season’s. Our first eight games are against:
Siena (#171 in pre-season Pomeroy)
Bryant (#240)
Kentucky (in Chicago) (#2)
VCU (in NYC) (#53)
Georgetown (#27) or Wisconsin (#9) (in NYC)
Yale (#115)
Utah State (#96)
Indiana (#13)
Stacking those rankings up against last season’s first eight games (using Pomeroy’s post-season rankings), it looks like this:
2015-16: #2; #13; #9/#27; #53; #96; # 115; #171; #240
2014-15: #3; #15; #41; #54; #263; #293; #305; #321
So, the "top" of our schedule looks more challenging than last season (if we play Wisconsin it's much more challenging), and the "bottom" of our schedule looks worlds better than last season's array of cupcakes. In 2014-15, Pomeroy ranked Duke's non-conference SOS as 105th in the country (111th, not counting the NCAA Tournament). This season should be a lot better.
Incidentally, Pomeroy's pre-season rankings have Duke at #1. The AP poll has us at #5, putting us in the pre-season Top 5 for the third straight year, the pre-season top 10 for the 8th straight year, and the pre-season Top 15 for the 20th straight year. Duke has now been ranked in an NCAA-best 156 consecutive AP polls, the second-longest stretch in program history and the seventh-longest in NCAA history.
Even more amazing, our being ranked 5th by the AP marks the 19th consecutive season that Duke has been in the Top 5 at some point during the season.
3a. HOW GOOD ARE OUR ROOKIES?
Of course, a major reason our team is ranked so highly is because of Duke's stellar recruiting class, which is the #1 ranked class for the second straight year, and our 4th #1 ranked class since the RSCI began in 1998 (1999 and 2002 being the other two). It's also our fourth top 5 class in the past five years (9th top 5 class in the 18 seasons of the RSCI's existence), and seventh top 10 class in a row (12th top 10 class in the last 18 seasons). And, for what it's worth, next year's recruiting class will probably also be ranked #1, continuing Coach K's recruiting mastery. Duke fans are truly blessed.
But there's also been a lot of talk that this year's #1 recruiting class isn't up to the same level as other top classes. Considering that we have seven new faces (eight, if you include walk-on Brennan Besser) and only four returning veterans, how good our newcomers are will go a long way into determining whether Duke justifies our early top 5 ranking.
The freshmen include four players ranked in the top 25 by RSCI: Brandon Ingram (#4); Derryck Thornton (#13); Chase Jeter (#14); and Luke Kennard (#21). Since the RSCI was invented, Duke has never had more than four top 25 recruits, although we have had exactly four twice before (last season and in 2002). For completeness sake, here's the history:
NUMBER OF DUKE'S TOP 25 RECRUITS
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 4
2013-14: 1
2012-13: 2
2011-12: 1
2010-11: 1
2009-10: 3
2008-09: 1
2007-08: 2
2006-07: 3 (plus #28)
2005-06: 2
2004-05: 1
2003-04: 1
2002-03: 4
2001-02: 0
2000-01: 1
1999-00: 3 (plus #26)
1998-99: 1
So, how good are Duke's newcomers? Will they live up to their lofty ranking? I don't think we'll know the answer until we've seen them play in real games. We may not know until the end of the season.
An even more important question for many people is will the freshmen be able to play Duke defense? This has been an issue in recent years, and I've seen skepticism on the part of some DBR posters that we'll ever get back to playing vintage Duke D so long as Coach K continues to rely so heavily on freshmen. Again, we may not know the answer for awhile, but my response would be to look at the following lists:
List 1: Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, Greg Paulus
List 2: Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Justise Winslow
Freshmen who struggled playing Duke-style defense vs. freshmen who hit the ground running defensively. Sure, it's easier to master Coach K's defensive concepts the longer you've been around, but when it comes to first-year players, I'd argue it's simply an issue of some can, some can't. We just have to hope that (at least) Derryck and Brandon end up in the "can" camp.
As to how the freshmen have looked so far, I think it's promising but inconclusive. Brandon can clearly score, and can certainly get to the free throw line (he had an incredible 92% free throw rate in the exhibition games, and shot a serviceable 74% on those free throws), but his three-point shooting needs work (11% on 9 attempts in the exhibitions). Derryck and Luke can also fill the basket, but neither seem to be especially strong playmakers at this point in their careers. Chase is something of a stat magnet (21.6 pts per 40; 17.3 rebs per 40 in the exhibitions), but is getting mixed reviews as far as readiness. Sean Obi is a rebounding machine, but by all accounts is not quite ready for the big-time. Antonio Vrankovic and Justin Robinson both appear likely to redshirt.
3b. HOW GOOD ARE OUR VETERANS?
Our four returning players have all been supporting cogs for their entire Duke careers. Three of them are captains now, and they are all stepping into larger, different roles this season. How well they adapt to their new roles will be critical to how far this Duke team can go.
So, how good will they be? Again, it's hard to say at this point. But looking at their performances in the exhibition games, I'm cautiously optimistic.
And yes, I understand you can't tell much from exhibition performances against undermanned Division II teams, especially when it comes to big men, since the Division II teams tend to have much smaller personnel. But those caveats also applied last season, so perhaps a comparison of how our veterans performed this season vs. last season's exhibitions might have some value.
Whether it has value or not, here it is, converting both years' performances into per 40 minutes numbers:
AMILE JEFFERSON
Last year (per 40 mins): 15.4 pts; 16.4 rebs; 2.1 assts; 0 blks; 0 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 31.7 pts; 23.3 rebs; 11.7 assts; 6.7 blks; 3.3 stls
MARSHALL PLUMLEE
Last year (per 40 mins): 13.3 pts; 10.0 rebs; 2.2 assts; 1.1 blks; 2.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 23.8 pts; 14.3 rebs; 2.9 assts; 2.9 blks; 3.8 stls
MATT JONES
Last year (per 40 mins): 25.3 pts; 0 rebs; 0 assts; 0 blks; 3.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 28.6 pts; 3.8 rebs; 7.6 assts; 0 blks; 0 stls
GRAYSON ALLEN
Last year (per 40 mins): 27.8 pts; 4.4 rebs; 3.3 assts; 0 blks; 2.2 stls
This year (per 40 mins): 20.7 pts; 5.9 rebs; 8.2 assts; 1.5 blks; 2.2 stls
Amile's performance especially stands out. In the 24 minutes before he turned his ankle, he led Duke's team in per 40: points, field goals made, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds, assists, blocks, and fewest turnovers, as well as eFG% and true shooting percentage, and he wasn't too far behind Marshall and Brandon for most steals, either. Plus he's one of our best defenders. That's an exceptional performance, no matter the opponent. If he can continue his stellar play once the games count, it will mean very good things for Duke.
Marshall also seems poised to thrive in his senior season, although it remains to be seen if his minutes diminish as the season wears on and the freshmen grow into their roles. Matt and Grayson both seem to be more well-rounded than we saw last season. And Coach K has been quoted as saying, "Grayson Allen will be one of the best players in the country." So, like I said earlier, when it comes to our veterans, I'm cautiously optimistic.
4a. WILL DEFENSE BE OUR CALLING CARD?
Another thing about our upperclassmen is they're all defense-first players. Amile Jefferson was our best defensive communicator last season and showed excellent defensive positioning. He has also shown the ability to step up defensively in big games, most notably as a freshman against Doug McDermott in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, and then of course against Frank Kaminsky in last season's championship game. Marshall Plumlee was also a stalwart defender last season, and Matt Jones has found his way to the floor mostly because of his defensive ability. Grayson Allen showed flashes of strong D as well.
Derryck Thornton is an extremely quick guard who comes to Duke with the reputation of a defensive ballhawk, probably with as much defensive potential as any Duke guard since Chris Duhon in 2004. And Brandon Ingram might be the longest small forward in college today. Even 9th man Sean Obi has a good defensive reputation and as a freshman at Rice had the 3rd best defensive rebounding percentage in the nation (30.2%, significantly better than any Duke player has ever accomplished since they started statistically distinguishing offensive from defensive rebounds). So even though the jury's still out on Chase Jeter's and Luke Kennard's defensive chops, the team clearly has the potential to put the D in Duke better than any team we've seen around here in awhile.
But will they meet that potential? Again, we'll have to wait and see. Comparing how we did in the exhibitions against past Duke exhibition performance, we seem to be middle of the road (going back to 2005-06, which is as far as I can find stats for the exhibition games):
DEFENSIVE POINTS PER 100 POSSESSION DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy defensive rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)
2007-08: 55.5 (#8)
2008-09: 57.7 (#36; #17 pre-NCAAT)
2005-06: 64.8 (#18)
2009-10: 66.2 (#8; #4 pre-NCAAT)
2014-15: 70.6 (#12; #57 pre-NCAAT)
2006-07: 71.1 (#7)
2015-16: 74.3
2010-11: 75.4 (#21; #3 pre-NCAAT)
2011-12: 86.9 (#81; #62 pre-NCAAT)
2013-14: 87.4 (#116; #102 pre-NCAAT)
2012-13: 88.9 (#31; #25 pre-NCAAT)
Doesn't tell us too much, although our really bad defensive teams of 2012 and 2014 did show their true colors as early as the exhibitions. Also, it probably tells us that if defense is going to be Duke's calling card this season, there's a lot of work to do to get there. The fact that two of our strongest veteran defenders (Matt and Amile) combined for only five minutes (due to injury) in our second exhibition may also have affected our defensive performance for the worse.
Which brings up an interesting twist to this question. A lineup featuring Derryck, Matt, Brandon, Amile, and Marshall would appear to be a potential defensive juggernaut, with good size and a defensive advantage at all five positions. However, a much better offensive lineup of Derryck, Luke, Grayson, Brandon, and Amile would seem to have size issues and a potential defensive disadvantage at three, maybe four positions. Obviously there are a lot of mix-and-match possiblities, but how often we play with lineups similar to the first set vs. the second set may be the determining factor in how good Duke's defense will be overall. It's also very possible that we'll be a little Jekyll-and-Hyde defensively at different points in any particular game. Hopefully, Coach K will set his lineups to take the best advantage of the game situation, for example, to use an offensive-minded lineup to build a lead and a defensive-minded lineup to keep it.
One last comment on this topic: zone defense. With a 7-footer in the middle, the imposing length of Brandon and Amile, and several 6'5" guards to roam the perimeter, the occasional zone could be a devastating weapon in Duke's defensive arsenal. And in the exhibitions, Coach K mixed up his defenses, using several different zone looks. So it looks like zone is here to stay. And just a couple years ago who'd have thought we'd ever hear that at Duke under Coach K?
4b. WILL SCORING BE A PROBLEM?
There has been some concern among Duke aficionados as to where the points are going to come from for Duke this season. And if we do score, is it all going to be one-on-one? I have to admit I'm less concerned about this than a lot of people, if for no other reason than Coach K has assembled a top ten offense every year for the past seven (according to Pomeroy, anyway).
Brandon Ingram, Grayson Allen, Derryck Thornton, and Luke Kennard all seem to be able to fill the basket, and at least the first three can clearly find their own shot. Amile Jefferson has always been capable around the basket and appeared in the exhibitions to have raised the level of his offense significantly. Marshall Plumlee and Matt Jones both look at least a little improved on the offensive end, and Chase Jeter seems to have a knack for scoring as well.
Once again, comparing this year's Duke exhibition performance with past seasons, the early returns would seem to suggest this won't be a worry:
OFFENSIVE POINTS PER 100 POSSESSION DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy offensive rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)
2015-16: 141.2
2014-15: 135.8 (#3)
2005-06: 135.0 (#4)
2007-08: 133.5 (#19)
2008-09: 131.0 (#8; #4 pre-NCAAT)
2010-11: 130.8 (#5)
2006-07: 123.7 (#51)
2013-14: 121.8 (#2)
2009-10: 119.0 (#1)
2012-13: 117.3 (#5)
2011-12: 113.4 (#10; #9 pre-NCAAT)
So, while obviously this doesn't account for the comparative strength of opponents, this year's team had by far the best offensive performance in the exhibitions in at least the past 11 seasons.
This year's team also had the second-best exhibition assist-to-turnover ratio in at least the past 11 seasons, and the fourth-highest assists per possession. So maybe it won't be all one-on-one play, after all.
For completeness sake, here are those stats and a few others that might be of interest:
Year A/to A/Poss A/FG FT/Poss Diff100
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2016 2.15 26.2% 53.1% 19.7% 67.0
2015 1.75 28.2% 66.7% 22.7% 65.2
2014 1.74 21.8% 54.1% 24.5% 34.4
2013 1.00 18.2% 45.8% 20.5% 28.3
2012 1.09 23.8% 53.8% 15.2% 26.5
2011 2.23 34.2% 75.3% 19.3% 55.4
2010 1.10 25.8% 59.0% 14.7% 52.8
2009 1.41 25.7% 55.4% 17.9% 73.4
2008 1.69 24.7% 51.8% 18.7% 78.0
2007 1.50 25.7% 59.1% 19.7% 52.7
2006 1.66 28.8% 61.5% 20.8% 70.2
Key:
A/to = assist to turnover ratio
A/Poss = percentage of possessions ending with an assist
A/FG = percentage of field goals assisted
FT/Poss = percentage of possessions ending with free throws
Diff100 = point differential per 100 possessions (i.e., point spread if game were 100 possessions long)
With so many newcomers, one would think that our O will only get better as the season moves along. At this point I'm not worried about our offense.
5. HOW FAST WILL WE GO?
With the shot clock being lowered from 35 seconds to 30, the games almost by necessity should be faster-paced. On top of that, this year's Duke team has a plethora of speedy ballplayers, including a lightning quick point guard. Everybody loves to watch running, pressing teams, and the forced turnovers and easy scores would seem to be desirable outcomes. Many a pre-season has come with Coach K promising his team would run. But in the end, those promises rarely bear fruit.
Again, looking at the exhibitions, here's the relative speeds-of-play over the past 11 years:
POSSESSIONS PER GAME DURING DUKE'S EXHIBITION GAMES (best to worst)
(final Pomeroy adjusted tempo rank, including post-season, in parenthesis)
2007-08: 89.3 (#16)
2009-10: 89.1 (#249)
2010-11: 84.9 (#51)
2005-06: 83.3 (#30)
2015-16: 82.2
2008-09: 79.8 (#122)
2006-07: 76.0 (#202)
2013-14: 75.5 (#116)
2014-15: 74.4 (#114)
2012-13: 74.2 (#96)
2011-12: 73.7 (#96)
With the weird exception of 2009-10 and the lesser exception of 2006-07, this stat seems to be a decent predictor of pace. Or it would be if we knew how much the shorter shot clock contributed to faster pace in this year's exhibitions. My guess is we'll have more possessions per game than we've had in the recent past, and our overall tempo rank will be a little better than last year but not exceptionally so.
6a. WHO WILL START?
In our first exhibition game, we started our four veterans plus Brandon Ingram. In the second exhibition game, with Matt Jones out with an injury, Luke Kennard replaced Matt in the starting lineup. It seemed odd to many people around here (including me) that our only natural point guard, Derryck Thornton, didn't start, although it's worth noting that Derryck led the team in exhibition minutes (59). Our five leading minute-getters were Derryck (59), Brandon (56), Luke (56), Grayson (54), and Marshall (42), although obviously minutes were skewed by the injuries to (and resultant unavailability of) Matt and Amile. Still, it's interesting that the four guys who played the most were all perimeter players.
Moving forward, my guess is we'll see a lot of different starting lineups. It's possible, as the freshmen become more acclimatized to high-level college basketball, that one or more of them will replace the veterans in the starting lineup. Another question is whether Coach K will move from a traditional 2-big, 3-wing lineup to a more Coach K-like, 1-big, 4-wing lineup. It's something to look for, anyway.
6b. WHO WILL BE IN THE ROTATION?
A more interesting question to me is who will get rotation minutes? I think the answer is more complicated this year than it usually is, due to the uncertainty of what position Brandon Ingram will spend most of his time. Coach K has called Brandon a "six-foot-nine guard," and his rail thin physique would seem to fit more on the perimeter than in the paint, but we've often seen Coach K "go small" to get more scorers on the floor and take advantage of offensive mismatches. So, which way will he go?
The answer to that question will heavily affect our rotation. As many of you know, I developed a formula to predict Duke's rotations based on a combination of recruiting rank and college experience. But this year, the formula's prediction is different depending on whether Brandon is considered a perimeter player or an interior player (and let me note that this distinction is a defensive one -- for example, Ryan Kelly was an "interior" player for the purposes of the formula, even though he spent a lot of his time on the perimeter on offense).
If Brandon Ingram is a perimeter player, the formula predicts a seven-man rotation, as follows:
PERIMETER ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen
INTERIOR ROTATION: Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, Chase Jeter.
But if Brandon is an interior player, the formula would predict this seven-man rotation:
PERIMETER ROTATION: Derryck Thornton, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard
INTERIOR ROTATION: Brandon Ingram, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee
In the first scenario, Luke Kennard is the odd man out (although I have heard that the Duke staff thinks that Luke was underrated by the recruiting services, and if he were ranked just one or two spots higher then the formula would have predicted him as the 8th man, getting 10 or 12 minutes, in this scenario). In the second scenario, Chase Jeter ends up just missing the cut. Even before we heard from the Duke staff that Sean Obi isn't ready, the formula predicted he would be outside the rotation no matter what.
So, what's going to happen? My personal prediction is we split the difference. Brandon will spend significant time both on the perimeter and in the interior, and we will therefore have an 8-man rotation, with both Luke and Chase getting decent rotation minutes. If the exhibitions are a decent guide, it will be Chase that ends up as the 8th man, playing 10 or 12 mpg. But there's always the chance that he improves rapidly over time and eats into Marshall's minutes by the end of the season.
7. WHAT MAGIC WILL COACH K COME UP WITH?
It's amazing that after a 30-plus year career and with all his accomplishments that Coach K continues to innovate and surprise. I can't wait to see what new twists he comes up with this season.
8. GO DUKE!!!
Here's to another exhilarating ride. Go Duke!