Much more fire power in the backcourt this year ?

[lotusland]

The front page article claims Duke will have much more fire power this year. I expect good things from the guards this year but I don't expect "much" more firepower from Thornton and Kennard over Cook and Jones. That was a pretty potent backcourt last year. I do think Duke will rely more on their guards for scoring this year .

[FerryFor50]

Depends on if you consider Brandon Ingram to be a guard.

I think that's where most of the offense will come from, with Grayson Allen next.

[jimsumner]

If we change "back-court" to "perimeter," the answer becomes affirmative, good buddy.

[Wander]

I agree, I think the claim is absurd. Expecting either our backcourt to be better than a unit which won the national championship and was arguably the best backcourt in the country is setting yourself up for disappointment. Now, I know "better than" is not the same as "much more firepower than," but recall that for most of last season Jones and Cook were not good defenders, so it's sort of equivalent in this case.

[lotusland]

If we change "back-court" to "perimeter," the answer becomes affirmative, good buddy.

The article was about Kennard and Allen and specifically said "back-court". Duke closed out the year starting 4 "perimeter" players plus Okafor. So far this year we have two post players and 3 perimeter players in most of the time except when Ingram is at the 4 spot. Maybe we get more points this year out of players not named Plumlee, Obi, Jeter, or Jefferson than we did from players not named Okafor, Plumlee or Jefferson last year but I don't think we know enough to say it will be "much more" at this point.

I agree that the team's success on offense will rely more on perimeter play by virtue of losing Okafor, gaining Ingram and Kennard and giving Allen a bigger role but it's going to be tough for those guys to be "much better" and only time will tell.

[cato]

Quinn Cook's response:
http://youtu.be/yTXNYqvyuI4

[jipops]

I think this claim is very much up in the air at this point. First of all, I have a hard time believing that Thornton is going to come in and have the same type of impact that Tyus Jones did. I don't think anybody does, really. Though Derryck appears to be talented and a very good athlete, Tyus was just one of those freshman floor general anomalies. We just can't expect to see that again right off the bat from a freshman. And I don't see how there is a secondary ball handler and distributor on this team that measures up to a senior Quinn Cook, not even close.

I have little doubt that both Jones and Allen have substantially improved for this season and Kennard certainly appears to be a capable player based on a limited sample set. Ingram is undoubtedly a very talented player and appears to be a natural perimeter player but if we're going to lump him into the category of "back court" player then we should do the same for Winslow.

Therefore, if "firepower" in the backcourt means scoring and playmaking, I have a hard time seeing us as having "much more firepower" than last season. It's possible, but not likely...actually less likely than not. Our potential secondary ball handler is any combination of Jones, Kennard, or Ingram. Now Ingram is an intriguing option at that role but if we have to go the way of either M Jones or Kennard, then I don't see that measuring up at all to '14-'15 Cook. And we don't even know for sure if any one of those three WON'T be the primary ball handler. What if Thornton takes the bulk of the pre-ACC season getting up to speed? And let's not forget what an excellent defender Cook became his senior season. He was in amazing shape last year and was able to hawk the ball consistently. I believe we have one of the better overall defenders in the country this year in Matt Jones but who else is going to be able to reliably defend the perimeter? I suppose it is possible that Thornton is an improvement over Tyus Jones in that department.

It is possible that DBR is referring simply to the sheer number of able and talented players available to play in the back court being greater than last season. I wouldn't agree with that either. Actually I think that comes out the same.

'14-'15 - T Jones, M Jones, Cook, Allen, Winslow (notice not including Sheed)
'15-'16 - Thornton, M Jones , Allen, Kennard, Ingram


So I would like to know what was meant by "much more firepower". As of right now, I just don't see it. And the argument could have been made at the end of last season that Cook and Jones ended up being best back court duo in the country.

[jimsumner]

The article was about Kennard and Allen and specifically said "back-court". Duke closed out the year starting 4 "perimeter" players plus Okafor. So far this year we have two post players and 3 perimeter players in most of the time except when Ingram is at the 4 spot. Maybe we get more points this year out of players not named Plumlee, Obi, Jeter, or Jefferson than we did from players not named Okafor, Plumlee or Jefferson last year but I don't think we know enough to say it will be "much more" at this point.

I agree that the team's success on offense will rely more on perimeter play by virtue of losing Okafor, gaining Ingram and Kennard and giving Allen a bigger role but it's going to be tough for those guys to be "much better" and only time will tell.

Duke ran its offense through a post player last season. Duke will run its offense through two perimeter players this season.

Down the stretch last season Duke started a perimeter player who averaged 6 points per game. I do not expect that to be the case this season.

"Fire-power" and effectiveness are not the same thing. This team's perimeter could be less effective as ball-handlers, playmakers, defenders and rebounders and still have more firepower.

Duke's offense will be more perimeter-oriented this season than was the case last season.

[sagegrouse]

Zees problem is so e-e-e-asy:

Winslow = Ingram.

M. Jones '15 < M. Jones '16

Alors, the problem then is whether

Messrs. Grayson '15, Cook and Tyus Jones have more or less, how do you say, "zee firepower," than Messrs. Grayson '16, Kennard and Thornton? M. Grayson was not a factor during the regular season last year. Alors, in terms of "zee firepower," this year is greater than last year by having cinq Bleus Diables who will score.

[lotusland]

Duke ran its offense through a post player last season. Duke will run its offense through two perimeter players this season.

Down the stretch last season Duke started a perimeter player who averaged 6 points per game. I do not expect that to be the case this season.

"Fire-power" and effectiveness are not the same thing. This team's perimeter could be less effective as ball-handlers, playmakers, defenders and rebounders and still have more firepower.

Duke's offense will be more perimeter-oriented this season than was the case last season.

You're trying hard but all your saying is that because we don't have Okafor we'll rely more on the perimeter players that we have which is what I said. My interpretation: firepower = scoring ability. You've only argued that they'll have more opportunity to score not ability.

I see lots of potential for Ingram, Allen and Kennard and I'll be happy if they surpass Cook, Jones and Winslow but they haven't shown it yet and in any event I doubt they exhibit "much more" ability to score.

[killerleft]

You're trying hard but all your saying is that because we don't have Okafor we'll rely more on the perimeter players that we have which is what I said. My interpretation: firepower = scoring ability. You've only argued that they'll have more opportunity to score not ability.

I see lots of potential for Ingram, Allen and Kennard and I'll be happy if they surpass Cook, Jones and Winslow but they haven't shown it yet and in any event I doubt they exhibit "much more" ability to score.

Perhaps in regards to the definition of 'firepower' you might want to amend your interpretation to alllow that Duke 'will take more shots from the positions occupied by perimeter players'. Firepower means that the ammo will be used, not that it will always hit the target. If our firepower achieves its objectives, which in this case can probably be defined as 'baskets', at a good rate, then we will be 'cooking with gas'. I will leave it to someone else to define that.

[Wander]

So this has now morphed into "if we define the backcourt as everyone but the center, then the backcourt will take more shots than last year." Um, ok, fine.

There's just no way that Thornton and Kennard provide as good offense as Jones and Cook did. Now, could they be close enough such that they balance the presumed improvement of Allen and Jones? I guess so, but even in that case, which I would call the realistic best case scenario, the "firepower" would be about the same between the two teams, not "much more" for this one.

[jimsumner]

You're trying hard but all your saying is that because we don't have Okafor we'll rely more on the perimeter players that we have which is what I said. My interpretation: firepower = scoring ability. You've only argued that they'll have more opportunity to score not ability.

I see lots of potential for Ingram, Allen and Kennard and I'll be happy if they surpass Cook, Jones and Winslow but they haven't shown it yet and in any event I doubt they exhibit "much more" ability to score.

Cook, Jones and Winslow combined for around 34 ppg last season.

I would put the over/under on Ingram, Allen and Kennard well north of 34 ppg this season.

[CDu]

Cook, Jones and Winslow combined for around 34 ppg last season.

I would put the over/under on Ingram, Allen and Kennard well north of 34 ppg this season.

Cook (15.3 ppg), Jones (11.8 ppg), and Winslow (12.6 ppg) actually combined for 39.7 ppg. I wouldn't expect substantially this year's trio of Ingram, Allen, and Kennard to put up substantially more than last year's trio*.

I suspect that you were replacing Tyus Jones with Matt Jones, but I'm pretty sure the previous poster was referring to Tyus when he/she said "Jones."

I concur with those that say we aren't likely to have "much more firepower" this year by the generally-accepted sports definition of the term. We'll have maybe more, but I don't know about "much more". We essentially have Allen and Ingram replacing Cook and Winslow. I think that's probably close to a wash, with an edge perhaps going to the outgoing players due to Cook's experience and versatility. We have Thornton replacing Tyus Jones. That's a definite downgrade on the offensive end. We have Kennard and an older Matt Jones replacing Allen and a younger Matt Jones. That is a clear edge to this team. So on aggregate, I think the two fivesomes are fairly close.

*I say this with the exception of the adjustment for pace as every team in college bball will see an increase in possessions per game this year due to the shot clock change. Given the increase in possessions, we should see more scoring across the boards. So we have to remember to deflate these stats (or use rate stats) when comparing across years. Also, remember that those stats for last year's group were brought down somewhat by the time Sulaimon was getting minutes. I suspect that more than a couple of Sulaimon's 7.5ppg would have gone to our top 3 perimeter scorers.

[Kedsy]

I suspect that more than a couple of Sulaimon's 7.5ppg would have gone to our top 3 perimeter scorers.

Well, I also suspect Derryck Thornton will score a fair amount (probably more than Sulaimon's 7.5) and "more than a couple" of his points would go to our top 3 perimeter scorers if for whatever reason he doesn't play. And those points won't go to them if he does play, so I'm not sure bringing Sulaimon into the discussion strengthens the case for last year's backcourt firepower.

[CDu]

Well, I also suspect Derryck Thornton will score a fair amount (probably more than Sulaimon's 7.5) and "more than a couple" of his points would go to our top 3 perimeter scorers if for whatever reason he doesn't play. And those points won't go to them if he does play, so I'm not sure bringing Sulaimon into the discussion strengthens the case for last year's backcourt firepower.

I realize I may have confused things by comparing T. Jones to two people (my bad). So let's start over and take a more holistic look at things.

Let's assume (for giggles' sake) that Sulaimon and Allen were essentially one player last year. They combined for 302 points, or 7.7 ppg. The top 3 guys averaged 39.7 ppg. Matt Jones (the 4th guy for much of the season) averaged 6.0 ppg. So the team's perimeter guys averaged 53.4 ppg.

If it weren't for pace adjustment, I would not expect this year's group to do much more than that. I'd expect our top three scorers to be in the neighborhood of 40 ppg. I'd expect the other two to be in the neighborhood of around 12-18 ppg combined (depending upon how the minutes play out). that's 52-58 ppg.

Now, with pace adjustment they'll definitely outscore last year's group. Let's conservatively assume 5% more possessions (meaning about 1/3 of possessions are affected by the 14% reduction in shot clock). Let's also assume a 5% increase in scoring across the board as a result of the 5% increase in possessions (assuming no change in efficiency, which may or may not be reasonable but considering the simplicity of the initial assumption it's probably fair here). So 52-58 ppg last year would be roughly equivalent (efficiency-wise) to 55-61 ppg this year.

So unless the quintet this year combine for 65+ ppg, I am not sure it would be appropriate to say that this year's team has MUCH more firepower than last year's team (after accounting for pace adjustment). Especially considering that this year's group will be given way more opportunities to score than last year's group (because we catered to Okafor last year at the expense of opportunities for Cook, Winslow, and Jones). And I'm just not convinced that this year's perimeter group is going to get into the 65+ ppg range.

If they DO get to the 65+ ppg range, I'll happily say that this year's group had more firepower. But that would be a 13+ ppg average for the fivesome, which seems a bit steep to me.

All this though is a bit pointless. I think we'll have enough scoring. We will get enough (15-18 ppg?) from our bigs that we'll probably score 75-80 ppg. And with our defense (which should be improved over last year) I think that'll be just fine.

[jimsumner]

I was (incorrectly) assuming that Jones referred to Matt not Tyus. Then again Matt Jones was starting on the perimeter the second half of the season, while Winslow was starting at the 4, so the perimeter group of Cook, Jones and Jones combined for 34 ppg.

Was Winslow a perimeter player when Jefferson was starting and a post player when Matt Jones was starting? Did Duke have three perimeter starters, then four?

Some definitional ambiguity.

But I'm pretty certain Duke isn't going to have a Mason Plumlee-Jabari Parker-Jahlil Okafor level low-post scorer this season, that Duke is going to push the pace and an awful lot of the scoring is going to come from Ingram (a player K keeps referring to as a guard), Allen, Jones, Kennard and Thornton.

And I think these perimeter players have the firepower to meet that challenge.

[CDu]

But I'm pretty certain Duke isn't going to have a Mason Plumlee-Jabari Parker-Jahlil Okafor level low-post scorer this season, that Duke is going to push the pace and an awful lot of the scoring is going to come from Ingram (a player K keeps referring to as a guard), Allen, Jones, Kennard and Thornton.

And I think these perimeter players have the firepower to meet that challenge.

I agree with both of these points. Though I would also say that last year's perimeter players also had the firepower to meet that challenge (though they didn't need to, because we had Okafor). Which was, I think, the point of this thread.