SI College Basketball Preview

[luvdahops]

Full ACC preview linked below, but predicts a 3-way tie for first with Duke, UNC and UVA each at 13-5

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/10/15/acc-preview-duke-north-carolina-duke-virginia-louisville

Below is the Duke preview

DUKE
SI/Hanner Projected 2015-16 stats
NAME POS. PPG RPG APG ORTG POSS MINS
Grayson Allen SG 16.4 4.0 1.7 119.7 23% 78%
Brandon Ingram G/F 15.6 6.9 1.6 114.7 24% 78%
Derryck Thornton PG 11.9 3.9 4.1 109.4 22% 75%
Amile Jefferson PF 10.2 8.6 1.3 126.2 18% 72%
Matt Jones SG 9.5 3.4 1.3 116.5 17% 69%
Chase Jeter PF/C 7.9 4.8 0.6 109.4 22% 46%
Marshall Plumlee C 5.3 5.0 0.7 122.6 13% 52%

Because he had to complete a summer course after reclassifying to 2015, Derryck Thornton joined the Blue Devils later than usual for a freshman. Still, the 6'2" guard’s ability was immediately evident: Quick hands and feet, pushing the tempo offensively, picking up opposing guards for 94 feet. On a team replete with options, Thornton must reprise Tyus Jones’s performance as a steely first-year floor leader.

Comments:
I am not familiar with the Hanner stat projections. Projections for Grayson, Brandon, Amile and Marshall are pretty well in line with mine (and I suspect many others on DBR), but I would be surprised to see Derryck, Matt or Chase hit theirs. Omitting Luke seems like the biggest delta. He may only be 7th or 8th in mpg, but could easily wind up our #3 or #4 scorer, something like 10 ppg in 18-20 mpg. No love for Obi either, but that seems a bit more understandable based on what we know today. The assist projections seem conservative generally, especially for Grayson and Brandon.

[Olympic Fan]

The 13-5 ACC prediction for Duke, UNC and Virginia is interesting.

For one thing, Duke has not finished worse than 13-5 in the ACC since the 2007 team went 8-8.

As I look at the schedule, I start by projecting an 9-0 record in Cameron. I know that's optimistic, but Duke has lost one home game in the last three years. Four of the last six years, Duke has been unbeaten at home. So 9-0 ... or at worst 8-1 is reasonable.

Then look at the road schedule. Duke SHOULD beat Boston College, Clemson and Wake on the road (oddly, our first three ACC road games). Later, we get Georgia Tech in Atlanta.

That should be 12 or 13 ACC wins right there.

How many can Duke win from:

at N.C. State
at Miami
at UNC
at Louisville
at Pitt

I think that in the last few years, Duke has been at a disadvantage with the unbalanced schedule. This year, I think it breaks in our favor -- we only get Virginia in Durham and Notre Dame at home, along with Florida St and Syracuse. That's four of the projected first-division ACC teams that we only see in Cameron. We do get UNC and NC State, projected to be top half of the league, home and away, but the only first-division team we get on the road and not at home is Miami.

Let's see about UNC and Virginia ... give them the same 9-0 home base that I project for Duke (although UNC lost five home games a year ago -- four in the ACC ... Virginia lost just one, to Duke)

Virginia has tough road games:

at Duke
at Miami
at FSU
at Louisville
at Pitt

They also have very winnable road games at Georgia Tech, Wake and Clemson. I think they can get to 13-5 or better without major problems.

North Carolina has winnable road games at VPI and at BC, but that's it. Their tough road games are:

at Virginia
at Duke
at NC State
at FSU
at Notre Dame
at Louisville
at Syracuse

Wow ... I hadn't looked at it before, but I think UNC faces the toughest ACC schedule this season. Give them a 9-0 home record (which is a stretch) and those two fairly easy ACC wins and that only gets them top 11 ACC wins. That means that they have to beat at least two tough ACC teams on the road to get to 13.

Duke gets to 13 ACC wins by winning the games they should win ... Virginia gets to 12 wins by that formula ... UNC only gets to 11 wins that way.

Personally, I think all three will get to 13 ACC wins, but one of Duke and/or Virginia should get to 15 wins. Not sure UNC can do that.

[gumbomoop]

I really like Olympic Fan's analysis ^ of the projected ACC top tier. Agree wholeheartedly with his assertion that UNC has the toughest ACC road schedule this season. I will guess that any of the 3 that hold serve at home (9-0) will reach 14 wins. And any of the 3 to go 9-0 at home and win away at any of the other top 3 is surely the favorite to finish first and win 15.

Kudos to Olympic Fan for solid analysis, digging deep (enough right now) into schedules.

[DukieTiger]

The 13-5 ACC prediction for Duke, UNC and Virginia is interesting.

For one thing, Duke has not finished worse than 13-5 in the ACC since the 2007 team went 8-8.

As I look at the schedule, I start by projecting an 9-0 record in Cameron. I know that's optimistic, but Duke has lost one home game in the last three years. Four of the last six years, Duke has been unbeaten at home. So 9-0 ... or at worst 8-1 is reasonable.

Then look at the road schedule. Duke SHOULD beat Boston College, Clemson and Wake on the road (oddly, our first three ACC road games). Later, we get Georgia Tech in Atlanta.



Just a note on the road schedule - @Clemson will be semi-away, as Littlejohn is being renovated this season and Clemson will be playing home games in my beloved hometown of Greenville*. If anything, that makes the road schedule even more manageable since Littlejohn is a tough place to play and I'd imagine an off campus game will draw more Duke fans.

*As an aside, I'm really hoping that the NCAA finally sends the tournament back to Greenville after a 13 year boycott due to the confederate flag controversy. I was in high school the last (and only) time the tourney came through, and got to see the Williams-Dunleavy-Boozer juggernaut come through. City's really grown since then and would do a great job as hosts, I'd guess.