2015-16 Hot Stove Baseball

[burnspbesq]

Painful ending to the season, but I don't know even one fellow Mets fan (or anyone else for that matter) who expected in July that we would be one of the two last teams playing. Hopefully this begins a run of success for a few years. And had we not given away two or three games in the WS (sigh...), this may have had a different outcome. But nonetheless the Royals deserve the accolades.

Don't know whether Cespedes or Murphy will be back, but our starters are a great building block in the near term.

LGM ... forever.

My dream opening-day lineup for the 2016 Mets (ironically enough, opening day will be in KC):

Granderson, RF
Wright, 1B
Conforto, LF
Cespedes, CF
Arenado, 3B (obtained in a trade for Harvey, Duda, and Flores)
d'Arnaud, C
Herrera, 2B
Tejada, SS
de Grom, P

Reserve position players: Plawecki, C; Muno, 3B; Tovar, SS/2B; Cuddyer, LF/RF/1B; Lagares, CF; Johnson, 2B/1B/LF
Other starting pitchers: Syndergaard, Matz, Niese, Colon
Relief pitchers: Familia, Clippard, Robles, Blevins, Montero, Verrett

[jimsumner]

My dream opening-day lineup for the 2016 Mets (ironically enough, opening day will be in KC):

Granderson, RF
Wright, 1B
Conforto, LF
Cespedes, CF
Arenado, 3B (obtained in a trade for Harvey, Duda, and Flores)
d'Arnaud, C
Herrera, 2B
Tejada, SS
de Grom, P

Reserve position players: Plawecki, C; Muno, 3B; Tovar, SS/2B; Cuddyer, LF/RF/1B; Lagares, CF; Johnson, 2B/1B/LF
Other starting pitchers: Syndergaard, Matz, Niese, Colon
Relief pitchers: Familia, Clippard, Robles, Blevins, Montero, Verrett

If you want to trade Harvey for a 3B, the Yanks will take him off your hands for Headley and spare change. :)

[duke74]

My dream opening-day lineup for the 2016 Mets (ironically enough, opening day will be in KC):
...
Cespedes, CF
Arenado, 3B (obtained in a trade for Harvey, Duda, and Flores)
d'Arnaud, C
...


Do you think that we'll trade Matt this offseason, along with Duda and Flores? And that we'll sign Cespedes?

I actually think that Murph will be back. We'll tender to get the draft pick, which might scare away potential bidders...

interesting scenario.

[DukieInKansas]

My dream opening-day lineup for the 2016 Mets (ironically enough, opening day will be in KC):

Granderson, RF
Wright, 1B
Conforto, LF
Cespedes, CF
Arenado, 3B (obtained in a trade for Harvey, Duda, and Flores)
d'Arnaud, C
Herrera, 2B
Tejada, SS
de Grom, P

Reserve position players: Plawecki, C; Muno, 3B; Tovar, SS/2B; Cuddyer, LF/RF/1B; Lagares, CF; Johnson, 2B/1B/LF
Other starting pitchers: Syndergaard, Matz, Niese, Colon
Relief pitchers: Familia, Clippard, Robles, Blevins, Montero, Verrett

And I'm hoping the Royals opt to delay distribution of rings until the weekend series against the Twins.

[burnspbesq]

Do you think that we'll trade Matt this offseason, along with Duda and Flores? And that we'll sign Cespedes?

I actually think that Murph will be back. We'll tender to get the draft pick, which might scare away potential bidders...

interesting scenario.

Probably not, but the idea of putting Scott Boras in an un-resolvable conflict of interest by offering one of his clients in trade for another of his clients amuses me to no end.

Murphy is going to be looking for four years and $60 million. Cespedes is going to be looking for six years and $120 million. I'd rather go with Cespedes, but I can certainly understand anyone who is skeptical that the Wilpons will pull the trigger on a deal of that magnitude.

I'm mostly indifferent as between Clippard and Reed. Whichever can be had for less money.

If the Mets want to radically upgrade their middle infield defense, they could trade for Profar and sign Kendrick as a free agent.

[burnspbesq]

If you want to trade Harvey for a 3B, the Yanks will take him off your hands for Headley and spare change. :)

$70 million in spare change?

[Blue in the Face]

I'm mostly indifferent as between Clippard and Reed. Whichever can be had for less money.
Well Reed's under team control and Clippard's a free agent, so not much uncertainty as to who will cost more.

[Jim3k]

I'm mostly indifferent as between Clippard and Reed. Whichever can be had for less money.



No reason to be merely indifferent about Clippard. Just designate him for assignment and be done with him.

I saw him for most of the season, until late July, when Billy decided to clear the salary decks and go young. In this case, for a 20-year old A class pitcher (Casey Meisner) for Clippard. Until then, all I ever saw from Clippard was an inability to control late innings. If he came in, runners were going to get on and probably score. The rest of the A's weren't too bad, both position players and starters. But Clippard's (along with other bullpen pitchers) weak performance led to the A's poor season. Clippard just couldn't hold a lead. He continued to under-perform in the Mets' post-season. That's his trajectory.

Get what you can for him, but don't keep him.

[duke74]

Probably not, but the idea of putting Scott Boras in an un-resolvable conflict of interest by offering one of his clients in trade for another of his clients amuses me to no end.

Murphy is going to be looking for four years and $60 million. Cespedes is going to be looking for six years and $120 million. I'd rather go with Cespedes, but I can certainly understand anyone who is skeptical that the Wilpons will pull the trigger on a deal of that magnitude.

I'm mostly indifferent as between Clippard and Reed. Whichever can be had for less money.

If the Mets want to radically upgrade their middle infield defense, they could trade for Profar and sign Kendrick as a free agent.

NY Post (Martin) today on possible changes (FAs and others):
Blevins-prob back
Cespedes - gone ($/yrs)
Clippard - gone
Colon - prob back
Harvey - Arb eligible. trade bait?
Johnson - try to bring back
Murphy - tender
Niese (signed) - Back for trade piece?
O'Flaherty - uncertain. Ineffective when obtained
Parnell - Prob gone
Reed - Arb eligible, already at $5 million
Uribe - valuable, but with a healthy Wright, needed?

[weezie]

Well sir, might be time to shut this old thread down and begin the off season thread with....

Dusty Baker named new manager of the nat. Why am I thinking that this may not be the solution in that locker room?

[YmoBeThere]

As much I disliked many of his in-game moves, the Reds did drop off after he left. Obviously, personnel health plays an issue...

[JBDuke]

Congrats to the Royals on their World Series Championship. Time to start a new thread!

Trades, free agent signings, winter meetings, etc. Discuss MLB news here for the next few months. We'll start a Spring Training thread come February...

[luvdahops]

Well sir, might be time to shut this old thread down and begin the off season thread with...

Dusty Baker named new manager of the nat. Why am I thinking that this may not be the solution in that locker room?

Having lived through Dusty for four years with the Cubs, I don't think this is a bad hire. He tends to do well with veteran clubs, much less so with working in young and untested talent. How he handles Harper will obviously be key. His track record with talented players with challenging personalities has been mixed (e.g. pretty good with Bonds, not so good with Carlos Zambrano). We will see.

[weezie]

^^^ Harper now qualifies as tested :) though.

Kirk Gibson, our Gibby rumored to be talking to the Dodgers? He was diagnosed with Parkinson's so I hope the rumors mean he's doing well with it.
His local Detroit tv analysis/color was excellent. Great baseball mind.

[Dev11]

Arenado, 3B (obtained in a trade for Harvey, Duda, and Flores)

I'll have what (s)he's having. Not even the Rockies would be this dumb. Arenado is perhaps the second most valuable position player in the National League.

[Olympic Fan]

While I'm not a fan of Dusty Baker, he has had some success as a manager.

Of course, his reputation is that he destroys young arms with overwork. That dates back a decade ago to a time when he routinely had gifted young hurlers throw 120-plus pitches a start -- over and over again. Many in the Cubs organization believe that he's guilty of destroying Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. When confronted by this, Baker routinely shrugged it off and refused to address the issue.

However, there is some evidence that he's learned from his mistakes. as this article from 2011 suggests, he wasn't nearly as obtuse in Cincinnati as he was in San Francisco and Chicago:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13948

It would be very interesting to watch. But if I were Steven Strasburg (or his agent), I'd keep a very close eye on Baker.

PS I don't claim to know what happened, but the Nats first leaked that they were signing Bud Black to manage ... then they landed Baker. The story I've been reading is that they low-balled Black, offering him a two-year salary that would have made him the lowest paid manager in baseball. Now, I don't know if Black is better than Baker or not, but if Black is the guy you want, you let a little money (and in the context of Washington's salary picture, it is a very little bit of money) cost you the guy you wanted in the first place? Or did they agree to sign Black, then find that Baker was available and then low-ball Black to free themselves up to get Baker?

Either way, a sloppy way to do business.

[Blue in the Face]

PS I don't claim to know what happened, but the Nats first leaked that they were signing Bud Black to manage ... then they landed Baker. The story I've been reading is that they low-balled Black, offering him a two-year salary that would have made him the lowest paid manager in baseball. Now, I don't know if Black is better than Baker or not, but if Black is the guy you want, you let a little money (and in the context of Washington's salary picture, it is a very little bit of money) cost you the guy you wanted in the first place? Or did they agree to sign Black, then find that Baker was available and then low-ball Black to free themselves up to get Baker?

They'd interviewed Baker several weeks ago, so the only reason to offer Black the job in the first place was that he was their choice over Baker.

[FerryFor50]

My dream opening-day lineup for the 2016 Mets (ironically enough, opening day will be in KC):

Granderson, RF
Wright, 1B
Conforto, LF
Cespedes, CF
Arenado, 3B (obtained in a trade for Harvey, Duda, and Flores)
d'Arnaud, C
Herrera, 2B
Tejada, SS
de Grom, P

Reserve position players: Plawecki, C; Muno, 3B; Tovar, SS/2B; Cuddyer, LF/RF/1B; Lagares, CF; Johnson, 2B/1B/LF
Other starting pitchers: Syndergaard, Matz, Niese, Colon
Relief pitchers: Familia, Clippard, Robles, Blevins, Montero, Verrett

I can't imagine Arenado costing THAT much. A top line starting pitcher, a power hitting 1B and a SS prospect? Arenado could probably be had for Harvey straight up.

[Tappan Zee Devil]

I can't imagine Arenado costing THAT much. A top line starting pitcher, a power hitting 1B and a SS prospect? Arenado could probably be had for Harvey straight up.


I would probably do that if I were the Mets. Harvey has Boros as an agent and they will absolutely lose him in two years.

[burnspbesq]

I can't imagine Arenado costing THAT much. A top line starting pitcher, a power hitting 1B and a SS prospect? Arenado could probably be had for Harvey straight up.

The Mets can afford to overpay. Moving Duda clears the way for Wright to move to IB, which I think will prolong his career, and the farm system is loaded with middle-infield prospects with higher ceilings than Flores.

[FerryFor50]

The Mets can afford to overpay. Moving Duda clears the way for Wright to move to IB, which I think will prolong his career, and the farm system is loaded with middle-infield prospects with higher ceilings than Flores.

I'd rather see them turn Duda and Flores into other assets, like upgrading the OF a little or the bullpen.

[sagegrouse]

Well sir, might be time to shut this old thread down and begin the off season thread with...

Dusty Baker named new manager of the nat. Why am I thinking that this may not be the solution in that locker room?

Matt Williams was "clueless" about managing a baseball team. According to all reports, it was a tension-filled locker room. Dusky Baker will do fine if all he does is fill out the lineup card and let the players play. Not too hard. Lessee ... Taylor, Rendon, Harper, Zimmerman ....

I blame Williams for Harper's losing nearly a full season of productivity in 2014. He jerked Harper out of the lineup for not running out a fly ball -- defensible, but in this case the wrong approach to a young star. Afterwards, Harper played totally out of control (according to teammates as well as my observations) until he finally tore a thumb tendon on a reckless slide into third base. While he returned later in the summer, he did not have any strength in his injured hand, and he only recorded 13 HRs for the season. As we all remember, his power returned in the playoffs against the Giants. The Nats still lost when Williams mishandled the bullpen that series.

[mkirsh]

While I'm not a fan of Dusty Baker, he has had some success as a manager.

Of course, his reputation is that he destroys young arms with overwork. That dates back a decade ago to a time when he routinely had gifted young hurlers throw 120-plus pitches a start -- over and over again. Many in the Cubs organization believe that he's guilty of destroying Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. When confronted by this, Baker routinely shrugged it off and refused to address the issue.


Nats announced highly regarded Mike Maddux as pitching coach, which hopefully removes any of the concern about Baker mismanaging the pitching staff (that is, of course, if the Lerners learned their lesson and actually have a signed contract before announcing the deal).
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/11/04/nationals-hire-mike-maddux-pitching-coach/75172248/

There is a small red flag in the article, which notes that the Nats hired him before Baker. I'm not sure how often this happens, but have some worry that the arranged marriage could cause issues (does Maddux view Baker as his boss, or GM Mike Rizzo?)

[Blue in the Face]

The Twins have won the bidding for the rights to Byung-Ho Park, a heavy-hitting Korean first baseman. His Korean league stats are rather jaw-dropping, though obviously that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. To provide some comparison, Jung Ho Kang had a very impressive rookie season with the Pirates this year, putting up a .355 obp and .466 slugging in pretty regular playing time. From ages 19 to 27 in Korea, he had a .383 obp and .504 slugging. From ages 25 - 27, his ops was .973, .876 and 1.198. He hit 40 HR's his last season, but never more than 25 prior to that. In the same league, Park's career numbers through age 28 are a .387 obp and .564 slg. His last 3 years, his ops was 1.039, 1.119 and 1.150, topping 50 HR's each of the last 2 years. We'll see what he can do in mlb, but if he translates in similar fashion to how Kang did this year, he and Sano could be quite a power duo.

[Duke79UNLV77]

While I'm not a fan of Dusty Baker, he has had some success as a manager.

Some success as a manager? Not every coach or manager can be the Coach K of his/her profession, but Baker has acquitted himself quite well: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/get-the-record-straight-dusty-baker-is-no-consolation-prize-as-a-manager/2015/11/05/d489e22a-83cf-11e5-9afb-0c971f713d0c_story.html

[Olympic Fan]

The first Vegas odds of the 2016 season are out and the Cubs are the early favorites to win it all:

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/1065539/cubs-favorites-win-2016-world-series

Personally, I think the Giants are a bit undervalued -- not only is there the "every other year" thing, but they also have $60 million in bad money coming off the books, so there is a good chance to made a major score or two in the free agent market.

[Blue in the Face]

So uh, that's not Nationals Park.

http://i.imgur.com/hKXlh07.png

(Team calendars are all prepared by a licensee, and the Nationals apparently had no part in choosing, or even reviewing, the cover image before publication).

[Olympic Fan]

I've been reading speculation and Jon Heyman was talking about the Yankees trading Andrew Miller to the Nats for Steven Strasberg.

Apparently, Strasberg is available because he's only under team control for one more year. Miller is coming off a great year as the Yankees closer, but they have Betances who can fill that role (although if he becomes a closer, who fills his 8th inning role?). Not sure if anybody else would be involved in the deal. Or if Heyman is actually reporting anything of substance.

[YmoBeThere]

The Twins have won the bidding for the rights to Byung-Ho Park, a heavy-hitting Korean first baseman. His Korean league stats are rather jaw-dropping, though obviously that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. To provide some comparison, Jung Ho Kang had a very impressive rookie season with the Pirates this year, putting up a .355 obp and .466 slugging in pretty regular playing time. From ages 19 to 27 in Korea, he had a .383 obp and .504 slugging. From ages 25 - 27, his ops was .973, .876 and 1.198. He hit 40 HR's his last season, but never more than 25 prior to that. In the same league, Park's career numbers through age 28 are a .387 obp and .564 slg. His last 3 years, his ops was 1.039, 1.119 and 1.150, topping 50 HR's each of the last 2 years. We'll see what he can do in mlb, but if he translates in similar fashion to how Kang did this year, he and Sano could be quite a power duo.

Can anyone say Hee Sop Choi?

[Jim3k]

The Phillies picked up on waivers Blue Devil Dan Otero from the A's. Dan said he didn't even know he was being waived.

Susan Slusser (http://www.sfgate.com/athletics/article/Oakland-A-s-lose-reliever-Dan-Otero-on-waivers-6608302.php).

In addition, switch pitcher Pat Venditte was claimed off the waiver wire by Toronto.

[Blue in the Face]

Rough day for off-field news. Former Braves pitcher Tommy Hanson passed away at 29 (http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/braves-pitcher-tommy-hanson-coma-report-article-1.2428878) due to organ failure.

And Jose Reyes was arrested in Hawaii (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14095418/jose-reyes-colorado-rockies-arrested-maui-domestic-abuse) for assaulting his wife. He will be the first player subject to discipline under mlb's new domestic abuse policy (introduced a few months ago).

[weezie]

^^^ Awful, awful news. Just so sad and shocking.

[Olympic Fan]

The Yankees traded backup catcher John Ryan Murphy to the Twins for young outfielder Aaron Hicks:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14107273/newyork-yankees-acquire-aaron-hicks-minnesota-twins-john-ryan-murphy

Not a mega deal or anything, but it reportedly foreshadows a deal for veteran OF Brett Gardner, a 2015 all-star who slumped badly down the stretch (with a bad wrist).

Hicks has not been all that productive so farm but he's supposed to have a lot of talent. At worst, he replaces Chris Young as the team's fourth outfielder.

Moving Murphy means the Yankees have to either bring up Gary Sanchez or Austin Romine. Sanchez has a major league bat, but is reportedly an inferior catcher. Romine can catch, but he's not much of a hitter,

[weezie]

...Hicks has not been all that productive so farm but he's supposed to have a lot of talent...

Apparently there's a lot of upside with young Hicks.

In other news, former Duke reliever Mike Seander is dating Josie Canseco, daughter of Jose?! Seander, now known as Mike Stud is trying to get a rap career off the ground. :confused:

You never know what you might pick up at 3:30am if you can't sleep, turn on the tv in the kitchen and catch a few minutes of TMZ!

[wilson]

The Barves have traded Andrelton Simmons to the Angels for Erick Aybar:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14115615/andrelton-simmons-atlanta-braves-losangeles-angels-trade-erick-aybar
Simmons was my favorite Barves player at the time of my breakup. Freddie Freeman is now the only remaining player to whom I ever had any emotional connection. The degree to which today's Barves bear no resemblance to the team I loved for so many years is genuinely astounding. And while I know that some of the pieces left behind by the Wren administration were woeful underperformers and some of the contracts were problematic, the wholesale dismantling of the team has been drastic and glaring. You can't convince me that there's not a certain middle-finger-to-Atlanta feel about it all.
This is especially galling in light of last week's team release stating that team profits were up in 2015 (http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2015/11/05/braves-more-profitable-in-2015.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bizj_atlanta+%28Atlanta+Busin ess+Chronicle%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher), even though revenue declined by $16 million. The franchise was able to offset that decline through "lower player salaries and decreased operating costs." So basically, they made more money by slashing the roster down to an embarrassing husk of a team, and diminishing the gameday experience for fans.
Oh, and there's more good news! You'll soon be able to buy Cobb Barves stock! (http://m.ajc.com/news/sports/baseball/liberty-media-plans-new-braves-stock/npLtK/) So Liberty Media pumped up franchise value by avoiding stadium debt by getting ~a half billion dollars in public money, and now you can buy a tiny sliver of the value you already helped to pay for. Um, thanks but no thanks. The malfeasance and contempt for the consumer has reached insulting proportions. These people can't pack up for their gridlocked hellscape soon enough.

[JasonEvans]

The Barves have traded Andrelton Simmons to the Angels for Erick Aybar:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14115615/andrelton-simmons-atlanta-braves-losangeles-angels-trade-erick-aybar

I've seen some stories point out that Simmons lack of production at the plate was just too frustrating to the Braves. Plus, starting next season Simmons goes from being a cheap young player to a kid earning over $10 mil per season (or something like that). The word is the Braves got back one great pitching prospect, a guy who may turn into a #1 starter in a couple years, and another prospect who is pretty good and will either be a useful pitcher or a useful trade piece down the line.

So, I get that this is a deal that makes sense for the Braves. The way they have stockpiled young pitching talent is impressive -- one writer said they are setting themselves up to win a lot of 1-0 or 2-1 games in a couple years with tons of pitching but no offense. Still, I can't help but lament losing the finest fielder of his generation just as he is entering his prime. I kinda hate the way the MLB seems to value unproven prospects over guys who have actually shown ability at the major league level. I know it is a product of the economics of the game (that makes young team-controlled players so important) but that still doesn't make it enjoyable to the fans.

-Jason "I went to one Braves game this year, the fewest number of games for me in decades... I may not even go to one next year" Evans

[wilson]

...I can't help but lament losing the finest fielder of his generation just as he is entering his prime. I kinda hate the way the MLB seems to value unproven prospects over guys who have actually shown ability at the major league level. I know it is a product of the economics of the game (that makes young team-controlled players so important) but that still doesn't make it enjoyable to the fans.

-Jason "I went to one Braves game this year, the fewest number of games for me in decades... I may not even go to one next year" EvansYep, you're right on target. I too understand the value of prospects, but the Barves don't actually know what they got in this trade. And furthermore, they may have gotten the Angels' top prospect, but that's also one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
Also, I don't fully understand the frustration with Simmons' offensive output. I mean, his lifetime batting average is a whopping 6 points lower than Ozzie Smith, a comparable player known much more as a defensive wiz than an offensive force. I understand that it's a different era and teams now rely on their middle infielders for much more pop than they did in the '70s and '80s, but if the Barves had bothered to build a decent roster around Simmons, then a .256 hitter in the 7 or 8 hole who is good for ~3-4 WAR per year based on his fielding alone would have been perfectly serviceable. The Barves are committing outright front-office malpractice, and their claim that the team will contend in 2017 is nothing short of laughable.

[Blue in the Face]

Craig Kimbrel goes from San Diego to the Red Sox for 4 prospects. Obviously a nice piece for a team that struggled in the pen, but they gave up a lot.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14124091/boston-red-sox-acquire-craig-kimbrel-san-diego-padres

[Olympic Fan]

I've seen some stories point out that Simmons lack of production at the plate was just too frustrating to the Braves. Plus, starting next season Simmons goes from being a cheap young player to a kid earning over $10 mil per season (or something like that). The word is the Braves got back one great pitching prospect, a guy who may turn into a #1 starter in a couple years, and another prospect who is pretty good and will either be a useful pitcher or a useful trade piece down the line.



Actually, according to Baseball Reference, Simmons goes from $3 million in 2015 to $6 million in 2016 and $8 million in 2017. He doesn't top $10 million until 2018, when he gets $11 million. The thing is, he's under team control until 2021.

Aybar, on the other hand will make $8.5 million next year -- so the Braves are paying $2.5 million MORE for a shortstop who is (1) six years older; (2) weaker at the plate last season; and (3) not even on the same planet defensively. They also got a pitcher ranked the 25th prospect in baseball by the MLB Network. For contrast, the Padres got four prospects for Craig Kimbrell -- two of them rated higher than the kid the Braves got for Simmons.

Anyway you look at it, this was a HORRIBLE trade for the Braves. Simmons was not only the best defensive shortstop in baseball (saving 71 more runs over the last three years than the second-best defensive shortstop (Crawford of the Giants), but he was the best defensive PLAYER in baseball (saving 21 more runs than the second best). Or put it another way, he earned more defensive win shares in his first four years than Ozzie Smith won over any four-year span in his career.

Simmons is not a great hitter, but his career OPS-plus of 85 is not bad for a shortstop. Just an aside, the Royals just won the World Series with a gold glove shortstop who had a 68 OPS-plus. The Orioles won a bunch of titles with a gold glove shortstop named Mark Belanger, who had a career OPS-plus of 68. And while Ozzie Smith ended up with a career OPS-plus of 87 -- he only developed as a decent hitter late in his career -- after his first four years, Smith's OPS-plus was 78.

This deal makes no sense. Why give up a great young shortstop when he have him cheap for five more years? Unless Newcomb turns into a dominant player (and he was pretty mediocre in his brief stint in AA ball last season) -- and while he's a good prospect, nobody is rating him that highly -- this is going to rank as the worst deal in modern Braves history (and that's saying something for a team that traded a group of player that became an all-star shortstop, an all-star closer, an all-star starting pitcher and a serviceable young catcher to rent Mark Teixiera for 150 games ... in the end, the Braves traded him away for Casey Kotchman and another great prospect named Steve Marek).

[Blue in the Face]

Jordan Zimmermann becomes the first big free agent to sign, going to Detroit for $110MM over 5 years. Probably good value, though his 2015 season could be some cause for concern going forward.


http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14249237/jordan-zimmermann-detroit-tigers-reach-free-agent-deal

[Blue in the Face]

And now Price goes to Boston for $217MM over 7 years, highest average value ever for a pitcher.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14268105/david-price-agrees-7-year-217-million-deal-boston-red-sox

[weezie]

Dave Dombrowski my departed crush.... Not necessarily the looks but the brains and nerve.

[Olympic Fan]

Some pretty major moves happening in the last two days.

The biggest push is by the Diamondbacks, who signed Zack Greinke as a free agent and traded with the Braves for Shelby Miller. How does that shift the balance of power in the NL West?

The Cubs picked up Ben Zobrist as a free agent to play second base. That made Starlin Castro expendable so the Cubs shipped him off to the Yankees for Adam Warren (he was mostly long relief with the Yankees, but the Cubs are talking about him as a starter. For the Yanks, he fills a gaping hole at second base. As a Yankee fan I love the deal -- Castro is young (he turns 26 in March) and he's a right-handed bat. And he's a three-time all-star.

[YmoBeThere]

As a Yankee fan I love the deal -- Castro is young (he turns 26 in March) and he's a right-handed bat. And he's a three-time all-star.

Which makes me wonder why the Cubs did it. Not looking at stats and career arcs, but my guess is that Maddon wanted this as a clubhouse issue more than anything else. Not to knock Zobrist but he will be 35 next year, hardly peak playing age for a middle infielder. Plus Zobrist will be more expensive over the 4 year period if my understanding of Castro's contract is correct. Granted, Castro's WAR numbers are meager compared to Zobrist's, but it seems the Cubs just spent about $3 million for a couple wins next year. Hmmm, maybe it does make sense.

[gurufrisbee]

Zobrist has a lot of history with Maddon from their Tampa days. And Castro fell off so much at the end of the season the Cubs were not even regularly starting him as I recall.

We've been having a busy off season up here in Mariner Land. Dipoto has walked in as the new GM and begun cleaning house. Which is probably good since Jack Z was an absolute nightmare as a GM.

[luvdahops]

Zobrist has a lot of history with Maddon from their Tampa days. And Castro fell off so much at the end of the season the Cubs were not even regularly starting him as I recall.

We've been having a busy off season up here in Mariner Land. Dipoto has walked in as the new GM and begun cleaning house. Which is probably good since Jack Z was an absolute nightmare as a GM.

Castro actually thrived once he was put back in the lineup at second base, hitting a MLB-best .369 in September IIRC, but also fielding much more sharply and consistently. Cashman had apparently tried to trade for him as a 2B before the deadline, so seems to have had Castro on his radar for awhile.

I did not see Zobrist coming, though he is a good fit for the Cubs. But between Castro and Javier Baez - who was much improved at the plate vs. 2014, has plus speed and is the best pure fielder among the Cubs glut of middle infielders - I thought they were set with 2B options. Baez still may be moved for a young starter as I understand it. Or he could play the super-sub role, backing up at 2B, SS and 3B and maybe logging some time in the OF. Maddon loves versatility.

[budwom]

Dave Dombrowski my departed crush... Not necessarily the looks but the brains and nerve.

I've been a big Dombrowski fan since his days with the dear departed Expos...but I don't think it takes that much nerve to spend/overspend? other people's
money. I really like Price, but in today's game, with the ultra inflated contracts (loooong contracts) I really don't know what constitutes a sage deal any more.

But the Saux (like the Tigers at one point) have gobs to spend, so spend he will.

[duke74]

The Cubs picked up Ben Zobrist as a free agent to play second base. That made Starlin Castro expendable so the Cubs shipped him off to the Yankees for Adam Warren (he was mostly long relief with the Yankees, but the Cubs are talking about him as a starter. For the Yanks, he fills a gaping hole at second base. As a Yankee fan I love the deal -- Castro is young (he turns 26 in March) and he's a right-handed bat. And he's a three-time all-star.

This is a great deal for the Yankees. Warren a valuable piece, but this continues Cashman's restructuring of the NYY into a much younger, athletic team. Didi, Hicks, Sanchez, Bird, Judge. Under the Boss, you probably would have never seen them in the Bronx (Core 4 being the I think exception due to the suspension and Gene Michaels' insistence).

This NY Post article by Joel Sherman is pretty good in explaining this new Yankee "mindset."

http://nypost.com/2015/12/08/what-the-starlin-castro-deal-tells-us-about-yankees-new-mindset/

And it just came across the wires that the NYY traded Justin Wilson to the Tigers for 2 prospects (including one ex-Met farmhand). More youth.

Meanwhile my Mets made a less spectacular, but possibly, good deal trading Jon Niese for the Buccos' Neil Walker. Similar numbers as Murphy (and actually Zobrist as well). One year deal. Niese is a .500 pitcher, but is a lefty who could have been in the pen and did provide depth for the youngsters in the rotation. Now upping talks with Colon, but might be too expensive for a security move. And still need to uptick SS and replace our 3 and 4 hitters from last year.

[CDu]

Which makes me wonder why the Cubs did it. Not looking at stats and career arcs, but my guess is that Maddon wanted this as a clubhouse issue more than anything else. Not to knock Zobrist but he will be 35 next year, hardly peak playing age for a middle infielder. Plus Zobrist will be more expensive over the 4 year period if my understanding of Castro's contract is correct. Granted, Castro's WAR numbers are meager compared to Zobrist's, but it seems the Cubs just spent about $3 million for a couple wins next year. Hmmm, maybe it does make sense.

The last two sentences sum it up nicely. But to add to that, it is worth noting that, prior to one of the most ridiculous finishes to a season I have ever seen by Castro, he was abysmal. There is just a lot of uncertainty with Castro. He is still young, but one has to have some concerns about a player who hasn't gotten better (may have gotten worse) since his early success in the big leagues. Someone made a comp to Garry Templeton, who was great early but fizzled by his mid/late 20s. I am not going to say Castro is headed there, but it is a possibility. Hopefully the change of scenery does him well.

As for the Cubs, they get an upgrade offensively at 2B for an extra $4.5 million per year. They also get Warren, who joins a list of swingmen (relievers who can be stretched out to start if a need arises. I don't think they have any intentions of Warren starting, and right now they have a full rotation (Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hendricks, Hammel). But Epstein and Co. prefer to have contingency plans to mitigate risk. They have several guys (Wood, Cahill, Richard, and now Warren) who can fill in adequately as a 5th starter in a pinch, while also providing solid value in the bullpen.

I would say these two moves (Zonrist signing and Castro trade) are all about mitigating risk for the Cubs. They know they have a strong nucleus, so it is all about trying to address potential questions to avoid screwing it up. Zobrist is safe, and heck he is likely to be better than Castro in the near term, and they add to their stockpile of pitching insurance. The tradeoff is Castro's potential, but I think the org felt it wasn't worth the risk of a relapse from Castro back to atrociousness.

And I don't think clubhouse concerns were a factor. Castro was a terrific teammate. He took his benching extremely well, stayed focused, and ended up really helping down the stretch. This was about upgrading the position and filling a leadoff spot, and as I said mitigating risk.

[burnspbesq]

Meanwhile my Mets made a less spectacular, but possibly, good deal trading Jon Niese for the Buccos' Neil Walker. Similar numbers as Murphy (and actually Zobrist as well). One year deal. Niese is a .500 pitcher, but is a lefty who could have been in the pen and did provide depth for the youngsters in the rotation. Now upping talks with Colon, but might be too expensive for a security move. And still need to uptick SS and replace our 3 and 4 hitters from last year.

I like this deal. Walker is an above-average second baseman, Niese was going to become surplus to requirements as soon as Wheeler is ready to go, and it costs the team about net $1 million in 2016 payroll. It gives Herrera another year to get ready. If Colon can be persuaded to come back for $3-4 million to be the number five starter for half the season before going to the pen, great; if not, some combination of Verrett, Gilmartin, and Montoya will have to suffice. The deal got done without having to give up Nimmo or Cecchini. Finally, getting Walker out of the Pirates' lineup is worth two games a year to the Mets even if he has a season-ending injury in spring training; the guy has been a stone Met-killer for the last couple of seasons.

[burnspbesq]

Aaaaand ... the Mets completely retool their middle infield in the space of about six hours.

Welcome to Flushing, Asdrubal Cabrera.

http://nypost.com/2015/12/09/mets-land-ss-asdrubal-cabrera-in-whirlwind-rebound/

[duke74]

Aaaaand ... the Mets completely retool their middle infield in the space of about six hours.

Welcome to Flushing, Asdrubal Cabrera.

http://nypost.com/2015/12/09/mets-land-ss-asdrubal-cabrera-in-whirlwind-rebound/

With Torres hurt and Flores just going down, a needed move. Hope he has something left...seems to have been slipping a bit the last few years (eg in range), but should suffice.

Still need some hitting or we're again like in the beginning of the 2015 season until the Yoennis trade and other July gets.

[weezie]

...Welcome to Flushing, Asdrubal Cabrera...

That is one sweet pick up, that is. He'll be fine at the plate.

And welcome to the D, Justin Wilson.

[Mal]

I did not see Zobrist coming, though he is a good fit for the Cubs. But between Castro and Javier Baez - who was much improved at the plate vs. 2014, has plus speed and is the best pure fielder among the Cubs glut of middle infielders - I thought they were set with 2B options. Baez still may be moved for a young starter as I understand it. Or he could play the super-sub role, backing up at 2B, SS and 3B and maybe logging some time in the OF. Maddon loves versatility.

You're quite right that, after an atrocious first half of the season, including a continuation of fielding issues, Castro responded to being benched/moved to 2B/being used sparingly about as well as anyone I've ever seen. He never spouted off or pouted, cried to the media, any of that. He just went about working harder and trying to get relevant again. He was a big part of the late run and pre-NLCS postseason success the Cubs had. At the end of the day, though, I think Epstein and Maddon were never terribly enamored of his skill set and value as fitting in to their overall vision, and a 6 week torrid streak wasn't enough to change his fate. When you get right down to it, he's a singles hitter who only walks 30x/yr. and doesn't field well at a premium defensive position. He made a couple All-Star teams when the Cubs were so awful his competence and talent made him stand out, but he's sporting a career OPS of .725. The power still hasn't come, and he was a liability in the infield.

Just a couple nits on the above quoted: the scuttlebutt here in Chicago around Zobrist was pretty deafening, actually, so that move surprised no one around these parts. He's a Maddon guy through and through and they have history together. Also, I'm not sure about that fielding claim re: Baez. Addison Russell is reminiscent of Barry Larkin at SS. Not as versatile as Baez, who could probably play 2B, SS, 3B or in the outfield, though. I wouldn't be shocked if the longterm plan is for Baez to move to third and Bryant goes to a corner outfield spot, especially if Soler doesn't reach his potential or they move Schwarber to the AL, where he's probably got more value as a DH than the somewhat shaky outfielder or butcher of a catcher he is in the NL.

[luvdahops]

You're quite right that, after an atrocious first half of the season, including a continuation of fielding issues, Castro responded to being benched/moved to 2B/being used sparingly about as well as anyone I've ever seen. He never spouted off or pouted, cried to the media, any of that. He just went about working harder and trying to get relevant again. He was a big part of the late run and pre-NLCS postseason success the Cubs had. At the end of the day, though, I think Epstein and Maddon were never terribly enamored of his skill set and value as fitting in to their overall vision, and a 6 week torrid streak wasn't enough to change his fate. When you get right down to it, he's a singles hitter who only walks 30x/yr. and doesn't field well at a premium defensive position. He made a couple All-Star teams when the Cubs were so awful his competence and talent made him stand out, but he's sporting a career OPS of .725. The power still hasn't come, and he was a liability in the infield.

Just a couple nits on the above quoted: the scuttlebutt here in Chicago around Zobrist was pretty deafening, actually, so that move surprised no one around these parts. He's a Maddon guy through and through and they have history together. Also, I'm not sure about that fielding claim re: Baez. Addison Russell is reminiscent of Barry Larkin at SS. Not as versatile as Baez, who could probably play 2B, SS, 3B or in the outfield, though. I wouldn't be shocked if the longterm plan is for Baez to move to third and Bryant goes to a corner outfield spot, especially if Soler doesn't reach his potential or they move Schwarber to the AL, where he's probably got more value as a DH than the somewhat shaky outfielder or butcher of a catcher he is in the NL.

Just curious, but what are your sources for "scuttlebutt here in Chicago". I am not a Cubs die-hard but do follow the team, and local sports in general, pretty closely, and can't recall seeing anything more than early, passing mentions of Zobrist, which seemed more like knee-jerk nods to his history with Maddon than to any real perceived fit with the Cubs.

FWIW, Jed Hoyer and others in the Cubs organization, as well as many MLB scouts, are on record as saying Baez is the best pure fielder among the organization's middle infielders. Russell is very smooth and gets good jumps, but he has nowhere near the range or arm strength of Baez. That said, Russell has definitely established himself there as a starter, in part because he has proven that he can hit MLB pitching. As you note, where Baez fits is still a question mark, in part because of his versatility, but also because he has not established himself as firmly as an everyday, MLB-caliber hitter (though he made huge strides in 2015 vs. 2014, eliminating the leg kick and much of the excess motion in his swing). I agree that 3B is probably the most likely long-term destination, at least with the Cubs, and it would not shock me to see Bryant moved to RF or even CF. But it would also not shock me to see Baez traded, whether this year or next, and penciled in as a starting SS somewhere else.

[Olympic Fan]

I ripped the Braves for the Andrelton Simmon trade -- which I still believe will turn out of be one of the worst trades in the last decade -- but the more I read and hear about the Shelby Miller deal with the Diamondbacks, the more I think the Braves hit a home run on that one.

In fact, a deal trading Miller -- a solid, young, middle of the rotation starter -- straight up for OF Enfer Inciarte would have been reasonable. He was the second best defensive outfielder in baseball last year and while his offensive numbers are not great (he was great against righthanders; weak against lefties), but his 2015 WAR was significantly higher than Miller's.

You can argue the relative value of Miller and Inciarte, but that's not the whole deal. The Braves also got SS Darby Swanson, the No. 1 prospect in Arizona's system (and No. 10 overall in baseball, according to ESPN) and RHP Aaron Blair, the No. 3 prospect in the Arizona system and No. 61 in all of baseball on ESPN's list. Swanson is at least a couple of years away from the majors, but there is a good chance that Blair, who gad a good year in Triple A last summer, will be in the Braves' rotation at some point next season.

Not sure the two deals balance out, although if Swanson does eventually blossom at shortstop, it does soften the blow of giving Simmons away from a handful of magic beans.

[Bob Green]

Hot Stove Baseball isn't one of my passions so hopefully the DBR faithful can provide me some insight on a couple of questions:

First the important one...

1. Have the Cardinals made any interesting moves? Hopefully the team will be healthy in 2016 as that would be a grand improvement over 2015.

Now the trivial one...

2. Are the Red Sox sufficiently shoring up their line-up to be a legit contender?

Allow me to explain the second question. My boss and a couple of co-workers are big Boston fans so this is the time of the year where I have to listen to their Red Sox optimism until my ears bleed. Personally, I think they are delusional and the Red Sox will be cellar dwellers once again, but the participants in this thread are much more knowledgeable than I am. I know Boston signed David Price but what else have they done?

Enlighten me folks! Thanks.

[CDu]

Well holy schnikeys! The Cubs have apparently capped off a monstrous week of activity with the signing of Jason Heyward. Heyward has been a rather productive (though not as productive as many anticipated) hitter thus far in his career, but also has been an elite defensive RF for the Braves and Cardinals. He's been around for seemingly forever, but is only 26. He was widely regarded as the best bat on the market.

The Cubs' drafting and trading success gave them the room to make this move. Most likely, they'll also need to make another trade or two to make the money work. Perhaps they do a salary dump of Jason Hammel, and they'll likely need to trade one of Soler or Schwarber to open up a corner OF spot for Heyward (or more accurately to not waste one of those two guys on the bench) for a young starting pitching option.

My guess is they'll trade Soler, which would mean that they've replaced Castro and Soler (two very inconsistent bats) with Zobrist and Heyward. Even considering the substantial salary difference between Soler and Heyward, I'll take that tradeoff.

[rasputin]

Well holy schnikeys! The Cubs have apparently capped off a monstrous week of activity with the signing of Jason Heyward. Heyward has been a rather productive (though not as productive as many anticipated) hitter thus far in his career, but also has been an elite defensive RF for the Braves and Cardinals. He's been around for seemingly forever, but is only 26. He was widely regarded as the best bat on the market.

The Cubs' drafting and trading success gave them the room to make this move. Most likely, they'll also need to make another trade or two to make the money work. Perhaps they do a salary dump of Jason Hammel, and they'll likely need to trade one of Soler or Schwarber to open up a corner OF spot for Heyward (or more accurately to not waste one of those two guys on the bench) for a young starting pitching option.

My guess is they'll trade Soler, which would mean that they've replaced Castro and Soler (two very inconsistent bats) with Zobrist and Heyward. Even considering the substantial salary difference between Soler and Heyward, I'll take that tradeoff.

Heyward can play center field, and I expect that he will do so for the Cubs.

[CDu]

Heyward can play center field, and I expect that he will do so for the Cubs.

While I'm sure he CAN play CF, I'm not so sure that putting him in CF between two defensive liabilities like Soler (no range) and Schwarber (no clue) is the best idea. That, and because I suspect budget will be a concern (eventually the young guys are going to become expensive), I think they'll move Soler for a young-and-cheap starter, then dump Hammel, and find a plus-defensive CF to give them two fantastic OF and one liability.

I mean, they could run a lineup out of:

Heyward (L)
Zobrist (S)
Rizzo (L)
Bryant (R)
Schwarber (L)
Russell (S)
Montero (L)
Pitcher
Defense-first CF

That's still a masher of a lineup, and it is also a fantastic defensive group at 1B, 2B, SS, RF, and CF.

Whereas if you keep Soler and put Heyward in CF, you get an average CF, two bad corner OF, but a more awesome offense.

[luvdahops]

While I'm sure he CAN play CF, I'm not so sure that putting him in CF between two defensive liabilities like Soler (no range) and Schwarber (no clue) is the best idea. That, and because I suspect budget will be a concern (eventually the young guys are going to become expensive), I think they'll move Soler for a young-and-cheap starter, then dump Hammel, and find a plus-defensive CF to give them two fantastic OF and one liability.

I mean, they could run a lineup out of:

Heyward (L)
Zobrist (S)
Rizzo (L)
Bryant (R)
Schwarber (L)
Russell (S)
Montero (L)
Pitcher
Defense-first CF

That's still a masher of a lineup, and it is also a fantastic defensive group at 1B, 2B, SS, RF, and CF.

Whereas if you keep Soler and put Heyward in CF, you get an average CF, two bad corner OF, but a more awesome offense.

Denard Span is a free agent CF name that has been linked to the Cubs, and would seem like a good fit. Plays strong defense and could bat leadoff (.352 career OBP with speed to boot). Also, I'm not sure whether Javier Baez would be seriously considered for the job full-time, but he is playing some CF in winter ball.

Addison Russell is a right-handed hitter btw.

[CDu]

Denard Span is a free agent CF name that has been linked to the Cubs, and would seem like a good fit. Plays strong defense and could bat leadoff (.352 career OBP with speed to boot). Also, I'm not sure whether Javier Baez would be seriously considered for the job full-time, but he is playing some CF in winter ball.

Addison Russell is a right-handed hitter btw.

Yeah, not sure why I typed S there. He clearly is a righty.

If we got Span, I'd imagine he would bat 9th. I think Heyward or Zobrist (both of whom are better OBP guys than Span) fit the "get on base in front of the big bats" a bit better.

I've heard that Baez is learning CF, and maybe that will work. But I'm skeptical that the Cubs would be willing to gamble that his bat and his glove will play in CF for a team that should absolutely contend for a title. That's also part of the reason I think they might trade Soler: he had some awesome playoff moments, but he's a weak OF and he had a pretty pedestrian regular season.

[Chicago 1995]

Hot Stove Baseball isn't one of my passions so hopefully the DBR faithful can provide me some insight on a couple of questions:

First the important one...

1. Have the Cardinals made any interesting moves? Hopefully the team will be healthy in 2016 as that would be a grand improvement over 2015.



They've got a good bit of money and a hole to fill now that Heyward is off the table. Rumors are they are going hard in on Alex Gordon.




Now the trivial one...

2. Are the Red Sox sufficiently shoring up their line-up to be a legit contender?

Allow me to explain the second question. My boss and a couple of co-workers are big Boston fans so this is the time of the year where I have to listen to their Red Sox optimism until my ears bleed. Personally, I think they are delusional and the Red Sox will be cellar dwellers once again, but the participants in this thread are much more knowledgeable than I am. I know Boston signed David Price but what else have they done?

Enlighten me folks! Thanks.

The Sox signed Price. They also traded for Craig Kimbrel and a very well thought of bullpen arm Carson Smith. Added some OF Flexiblity with Chris Young too. They'll be better next year, and shouldn't be cellar dwellers. Good enough to win the division? Maybe. Need health to be in our corner, and need Hanley Ramirez to happily move to first without issue.

[Mal]

Just curious, but what are your sources for "scuttlebutt here in Chicago".

No one reputable or anything, just a number of the more diehardish fans I know around town. One of them informed me via e-mail a day or two before the signing that it was going to happen. So maybe scuttlebutt's the wrong word - semi-informed rumormongering, perhaps. I would imagine some of them had to have been hearing things on the radio, but I refuse to listen to sports radio so I don't know the ultimate source. I do seem to recall there being talk about possibly trading for him last summer, so he's apparently been on the radar for awhile.

Thanks for the info. on Hoyer's statements re: Baez. Interesting. He didn't do much to show off that natural defensive prowess in the series against the Cardinals this fall, but I trust it's there.

With Hayward now in the barn, that's a team with a serious glut of young corner outfield talent. If you throw Bryant into the discussion, they've got the NL rookie of the year; a 22-year-old who hit 5 homers in the playoffs including one that landed on the top of a scoreboard; Heyward, who as CDu notes feels like he's been around forever but is only 26 and sports 3 GG's and had a 6.5 WAR last season; and the possibly now expendable Jorge Soler, who's only 23 and himself popped 3 playoff homeruns this season. I wouldn't be surprised if Soler is moved for pitching, or possibly a catcher.

If Heyward moves to CF and they don't trade Soler, you could see an order that goes something like: Heyward, Zobrist, Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Soler, Montero, Russell, pitcher. That's an awfully dangerous lineup. There are still a lot of K's at 3-7, though.

The Cardinals have to be pretty annoyed with the Cubs now that they've signed the two main free agents they were carrying. Those two moves alone might take St. Louis out of the favorite spot in the NL Central, since they haven't made any splashy signings yet.

[luvdahops]

Yeah, not sure why I typed S there. He clearly is a righty.

If we got Span, I'd imagine he would bat 9th. I think Heyward or Zobrist (both of whom are better OBP guys than Span) fit the "get on base in front of the big bats" a bit better.

I've heard that Baez is learning CF, and maybe that will work. But I'm skeptical that the Cubs would be willing to gamble that his bat and his glove will play in CF for a team that should absolutely contend for a title. That's also part of the reason I think they might trade Soler: he had some awesome playoff moments, but he's a weak OF and he had a pretty pedestrian regular season.

Agree that Span could bat 9th, but FWIW his career OBP (.352) is virtually identical to those of Heyward (.353) and Zobrist (.355). Also worth noting that career OBPs batting 1st are .350 for Span, .354 for Heyward and .329 for Zobrist. Who bats leadoff might depend more on whether Maddon prefers speed to power in that slot, and which bat there allows for the best overall lineup balance. It's always nice to have options though. Especially if you're Joe Maddon.

Totally agree that Soler is expendable, and that his perceived value may never be higher after his playoff run last year. And that Baez is probably a fall-back option at best in center. Seems more likely that he is being groomed for a super sub role, capable of backing up at 2B, SS, 3B and CF, and maybe getting ~400 PAs if he can firmly establish his ability to hit major league pitching.

[CDu]

Agree that Span could bat 9th, but FWIW his career OBP (.352) is virtually identical to those of Heyward (.353) and Zobrist (.355). Also worth noting that career OBPs batting 1st are .350 for Span, .354 for Heyward and .329 for Zobrist. Who bats leadoff might depend more on whether Maddon prefers speed to power in that slot, and which bat there allows for the best overall lineup balance. It's always nice to have options though. Especially if you're Joe Maddon.

Totally agree that Soler is expendable, and that his perceived value may never be higher after his playoff run last year. And that Baez is probably a fall-back option at best in center. Seems more likely that he is being groomed for a super sub role, capable of backing up at 2B, SS, 3B and CF, and maybe getting ~400 PAs if he can firmly establish his ability to hit major league pitching.

Span's lifetime OBP looks comparable due to two terrific years at the beginning of his career. In the last three years, he's OBP'd .327, .355, and .365, and in the last five years it has been those three plus a .342 and a .328. Not bad by any means, but not quite as good as the other two. Zobrist has been consistently over .350 for the last 5 years. Heyward is a bit more of an unknown because of his youth, but he has gone for .341, .351, and .359 the last 3 years. Furthermore, both Heyward (10.8%) and Zobrist (12.0%) sport healthier walk rates than Span (not bad at 8.7%, but not in the same ballpark as the other two). The reason I really like the idea of Span as a #9 is because that is essentially sticking a second leadoff man in front of the Zobrist/Heyward pairing. So you'd essentially have 3 leadoff types back to back to back.

I agree with the idea that Baez becomes a super sub. It seems like Epstein's plan is to have 9 (or even 10) starting-caliber players, so that he can rotate them for days off and/or sub in for injury. So I could see Baez getting at least 2-3 starts a week in the infield, giving Zobrist and Russell and Bryant a regular day off each week or so. If he could add OF to the mix, he could work his way into the lineup that much more often if the bat arrives.

[YmoBeThere]

Tankers acquire Chapman from Reds for 4 players. I think they are all prospects. Not sure if this makes sense given current Yankees' bullpen? I haven't seen data but closers going to setup roles hasn't necessarily worked well. But that is just anecdotal and could be entirely wrong.

[Olympic Fan]

Tankers acquire Chapman from Reds for 4 players. I think they are all prospects. Not sure if this makes sense given current Yankees' bullpen? I haven't seen data but closers going to setup roles hasn't necessarily worked well. But that is just anecdotal and could be entirely wrong.

Some interesting aspects to the trade.

I agree that adding Chapman to Miller and Betances could create ego issues like the Nats got when they added Papelbon. Or it could create the greatest three-inning closing team in baseball history (if the Yankees can just have the lead after six). Or it could be setting up another trade -- Miller's name has been bandied about. With his age and contract and lack of off-field issues, he's a very valuable trading chip. Joel Sherman (the respected Yankee beat guy) says the plan is to keep all three, but we'll see.

There is also the issue of Chapman's ongoing domestic dispute issue. He's going to face a suspension -- and maybe a long suspension for that incident. That's expected. But the kicker would be his pending free agency. Chapman is set to be a free agent after the 2016 season. But if his suspension is longer than 45 games, he would NOT be a free agent and would have to play a second year in New York before he can bolt.

The fact is that the Yankees got him for two second-line prospects (the best might be the 10th best prospect in their system) and two third-line prospects, so whatever happens, it's a very low-risk deal.

[YmoBeThere]

Additionally, Chapman is up for arbitration and is likely due a big payday. After sinking too much money into Votto, Bruce, and to a lesser extent Phillips, they(the Reds) likely can't afford Chapman. The Votto contract in particular will be an albatross around their neck for many more years.

[budwom]

the stat that jumped out at me re Chapman was that he threw the 62 fastest pitches recorded in 2015....his overall average pitch was over 99 mph...that be fast.

[jimsumner]

Two years ago Miller and Betances set up Robertson for the Yankees. Will Miller gladly move back to a setup role after he's seen Paris? That could be the key to making this work.

[Blue in the Face]

Two years ago Miller and Betances set up Robertson for the Yankees. Will Miller gladly move back to a setup role after he's seen Paris? That could be the key to making this work.
Two years ago Miller was in Baltimore and Boston, not the Bronx. But regardless of uniform, you're right that he was in a set-up role, as he'd been for several years since being turned into a reliever.

[YmoBeThere]

It should be noted that I'm not getting down on Joey Votto the player. His numbers over his career have been great and last year he produced a WAR of 7.7 or so, in the Top 10 of MLB. However, his contract runs through his age 40 or 41 season and he has a history of knee trouble. This doesn't bode well in the out years for a small market team. Soon their payroll will be Joey Votto $25MM, everyone else, $25 MM.

[Jim3k]

I'm not sure about this. (http://www.sfgate.com/athletics/article/A-s-make-Henderson-Alvarez-signing-official-6724737.php) Alvarez has been good for the Marlins in the past. He's only 25, but is recovering from shoulder surgery and may not play until May.

Right now, though, the A's have little to lose.

[YmoBeThere]

The Dodgers replaced the departed Zach Greinke with Scott Kazmir. That's an upgrade, right?

[rasputin]

The Dodgers replaced the departed Zach Greinke with Scott Kazmir. That's an upgrade, right?

Definitely not an upgrade.

[YmoBeThere]

Definitely not an upgrade.

Yes, but it did save them $18 million a year for a couple years. I think the takeaway from the playoffs was that there is a lot of good pitching to be had for not a super lot(see Mets) and you can't have other issues such as too much money on a bunch of old players past their prime.

[duke74]

Yes, but it did save them $18 million a year for a couple years. I think the takeaway from the playoffs was that there is a lot of good pitching to be had for not a super lot(see Mets) and you can't have other issues such as too much money on a bunch of old players past their prime.

See your point, but isn't the economics of the Mets' staff the result of the fairly rapid development of youngsters not yet arbitration or FA eligible? The key pieces (including the BP) were all basically homegrown (Matt Harvey, Jacob DeGrom, Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia). Noah was a centerpiece in the RA Dickey trade with the Jays and Wheeler (TJ surgery last year) came in the Beltran trade with the Giants. And Niese (since traded) came up through the farm system. The only FA pitching vet that I think played a significant role was Bartolo Colon.

So while they can be had "cheaply," certain things have to come together to accomplish that. And it can't last...No way we'll be able to keep them all in a few years, so this may be a win-now team while we still can roll out these guys.

[CDu]

See your point, but isn't the economics of the Mets' staff the result of the fairly rapid development of youngsters not yet arbitration or FA eligible? The key pieces (including the BP) were all basically homegrown (Matt Harvey, Jacob DeGrom, Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia). Noah was a centerpiece in the RA Dickey trade with the Jays and Wheeler (TJ surgery last year) came in the Beltran trade with the Giants. And Niese (since traded) came up through the farm system. The only FA pitching vet that I think played a significant role was Bartolo Colon.

So while they can be had "cheaply," certain things have to come together to accomplish that. And it can't last...No way we'll be able to keep them all in a few years, so this may be a win-now team while we still can roll out these guys.

Yup. It is similar with hitters (see Cubs, Chicago). You can get talent for cheap, but not through free agency. If you are acquiring talent via free agency, you are going to pay a premium to get it. The draft and trades for prospects are the only way to acquire cheap talent, and they only stay cheap for a few years.

Kazmir is a HUGE step down from Greinke in talent. It is possible that Kazmir plus whatever is obtained/kept with the salary savings is better, but that is no guarantee. But in terms of player for player, it is a big step back.

[YmoBeThere]

Agreed with both of you, talent obtained through the draft/player development can be had at much more reasonable prices. It does create smaller windows in which to be competitive. For smaller market teams(such as the Reds), this appears to be the only way to build a viable playoff contender. While I was there(2009-2012) they won two division titles and appeared in the Wild Card after I left. They had to pay up for some of their players(Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, etc.) which quickly left them with a payroll that allowed little flexibility.

I was being facetious with my Greinke/Kazmir comment. The takeaway for me is that they couldn't advance with both Kershaw and Greinke, perhaps that isn't the key to postseason success.

[CDu]

Agreed with both of you, talent obtained through the draft/player development can be had at much more reasonable prices. It does create smaller windows in which to be competitive. For smaller market teams(such as the Reds), this appears to be the only way to build a viable playoff contender. While I was there(2009-2012) they won two division titles and appeared in the Wild Card after I left. They had to pay up for some of their players(Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, etc.) which quickly left them with a payroll that allowed little flexibility.

I was being facetious with my Greinke/Kazmir comment. The takeaway for me is that they couldn't advance with both Kershaw and Greinke, perhaps that isn't the key to postseason success.

The playoffs are a crapshoot. The key to postseason success is talent, good fortune, and opportunities. If you keep making it, odds are you will win it. Make the playoffs just once and you need extreme luck on your side. The Dodgers could have advanced, but had the misfortune of running into Murphy during his two-week out of body experience.

The Dodgers might be good enough without Greinke to keep going back to the playoffs. But that doesn't mean that a Kershaw/Greinke combo isn't a formula for playoffs success.

[YmoBeThere]

The playoffs are a crapshoot. The key to postseason success is talent, good fortune, and opportunities. If you keep making it, odds are you will win it. Make the playoffs just once and you need extreme luck on your side. The Dodgers could have advanced, but had the misfortune of running into Murphy during his two-week out of body experience.

The Dodgers might be good enough without Greinke to keep going back to the playoffs. But that doesn't mean that a Kershaw/Greinke combo isn't a formula for playoffs success.

The Dodgers have had 4 opportunities in 3 years with the Kershaw/Greinke combo. They could only manage a series win against the Braves. It was an expensive experiment which wasn't meeting expectation. Meanwhile, the Giants managed to win 3 WS in 5 years. I'm sure they would maintain it was a crapshoot.

[CDu]

The Dodgers have had 4 opportunities in 3 years with the Kershaw/Greinke combo. They could only manage a series win against the Braves. It was an expensive experiment which wasn't meeting expectation. Meanwhile, the Giants managed to win 3 WS in 5 years. I'm sure they would maintain it was a crapshoot.

And the Giants' key to success? Two elite starting pitchers. Also, not sure how one gets 4 playoff opportunities in 3 years (?). But again, that's a pretty small sample. And yes, it's a crapshoot. Want to know why it is a crapshoot? Because the Giants didn't even make the playoffs in the other two years. They just happened to catch fire at the right time in their last 3 trips to the playoffs. They had INCREDIBLY good timing in their hot streaks.

There is no magical formula. If there was, then the same team would win each year. The Cardinals won it once in the past decade with a team that barely topped .500 baseball. They didn't have some magical formula for success; they just got hot at the right time, while their opponents (most notably the Tigers) imploded at the right time.

I have no doubt that the Dodgers could win a World Series if they had Kershaw and Greinke for a decade. They won't have them, so we won't see it happen. But any team that can consistently make the playoffs year after year can win the World Series.

[JBDuke]

Last night, the Nationals traded righty reliever Drew Storen to the Toronto Blue Jays for lefty outfielder Ben Revere. This was a need-for-need trade. With Denard Span leaving via free agency (and signing a 3-year deal with the Giants earlier this week), the Nationals were in need of a leadoff batter. They also needed another starting-caliber outfielder, as they weren't ready to commit to Michael Taylor as a full-time starter, which I think is right. Taylor has many tools, and played pretty well, but needs more plate discipline before he's ready to step into a roster for a contender. And they also needed another left-handed batter for the lineup, as the current projected lineup only included lefties Harper and Murphy. Revere fills all three of those needs.

As for Storen, the Nationals were obviously not convinced that he could perform under pressure, as they had twice signed players to come in and close replacing Storen in that job - Soriano in 2013 and Papelbon in 2015. It looks like the Nats are going to keep Papelbon, despite the late-season dugout fight with MVP Bryce Harper, as they struck out in their pursuit of the best closers on the market so far this offseason. (They might still move Papelbon, but the options look pretty thin unless they can get a closer for him, and they'd have to pay a big bill, I suspect.)

So, the Blue Jays get a high quality right-handed reliever with some closing experience to shore up their bullpen, and the Nats get the left-handed, leadoff hitting outfielder they needed to plug that hole. The Nats sent some money with Storen, and will get a player to be named later.

Washington's starting lineup now projects like this:

Revere (L) - CF
Rendon (R) - 3B
Harper (L) - RF
Zimmerman (R) - 1B
Murphy (L) - 2B
Werth (R) - LF
Ramos (R) - C
Espinosa (R) - SS

Bench bats - outfielder den Dekker (L), 1B/OF Robinson (L), middle infielder Drew (L), catcher Lobaton (S), maybe 1B/OF Moore (R) if he's not traded or released, maybe outfielder Taylor (R) if he's not sent down to Syracuse, maybe middle infielder Turner (R) but my bet is he starts at Syracuse

That's not bad if they can stay healthy. Unfortunately, they've got a lot of guys with a history of injuries - especially Werth, Zimmerman, Rendon, and Ramos.

As for the pitching, what it looks like right now:

Starters: Scherzer (R), Strasburg (R), Gonzalez (L), Roark (R), Ross (R)
Relievers: Papelbon (R) - closer, Perez (L), Rivero (L), Kelley (R), and a bunch of possibilities for the remaining one or two spots.

The starters should be good, although they're rolling the dice that Roark and Ross are both ready to go. Roark has one good year of starting experience (15 wins in 2014), but was inconsistent out of the pen last year. Ross looked good in his half-season last year, but hasn't had a full season in the majors yet, and has never thrown more than about 150 innings in a year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Rizzo bring in another starting pitcher, even though I like both Roark and Ross. The relievers were the big weakness last year, and will have to answer questions this year. Is Papelbon bullpen poison? Can he continue his long-term success as a closer? Will the veterans that the Nats signed - Perez and Kelley - stabilize the L/R setup roles? How will the young guns perform? I feel better about the pen than last year, with the exception of the closer.

[weezie]

Justin Upton, welcome to The D!

[budwom]

Justin Upton, welcome to The D!

I am most happy with this....some possibly very solid additions to El Tigres...if Victor's knee can be duct taped sufficiently, could be
a solid lineup...

[weezie]

Hey you Natty fans, are you stoked for Cespedes?

[duke74]

Hey you Natty fans, are you stoked for Cespedes?

Guess if they can't beat us they need to sign our rejects....

[mkirsh]

Hey you Natty fans, are you stoked for Cespedes?

Until he decided to re-sign with the Mets. Nats missing out on free agents is becoming a thing.

[duke74]

Until he decided to re-sign with the Mets. Nats missing out on free agents is becoming a thing.

Three yrs, 25 per. Opt out after one. The sports talk crazies and twitterverse had to have had an effect on our small market owners...the Wilpons...

[Blue in the Face]

The latest news isn't quite as rosy on the other side of town - 1B Greg Bird, who had was very promising in limited time as a rookie this year, will miss the entire 2016 season after having shoulder surgery. It'd certainly be nice if Tex could wrap up his contract with another solid year.

http://nypost.com/2016/02/01/yankees-greg-bird-to-miss-2016-due-to-shoulder-surgery/

[weezie]

FYI, my DirecTv MLB pkg is throwing in the extra innings on other devices for "free"...maybe you ATT folks are getting a better deal on the six monthly payments. Last year it was 32.99, this year 28.00 with Verizon.

There's also a rumor that a new package of fan's choice of strictly home team choice games will be available for $80 total in 2017. Anybody heard anything about that?

[DU82]

FYI, my DirecTv MLB pkg is throwing in the extra innings on other devices for "free"...maybe you ATT folks are getting a better deal on the six monthly payments. Last year it was 32.99, this year 28.00 with Verizon.

There's also a rumor that a new package of fan's choice of strictly home team choice games will be available for $80 total in 2017. Anybody heard anything about that?

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25430538/mlb-to-offer-single-team-mlbtv-packages-in-2016

Now if only they'll drop the blackouts for games involving "your region's team". I'm 250 miles away from "my team", the Nationals, and 300 miles away from the Orioles, but all their games get blacked out in Durham. Plus, MASN and Time Warner still haven't settled their lawsuit (that I believe TWC has lost a few times) so we don't get ANY games. If this continues, it'll be frustrating to miss seeing them lose to the defending National League Champions.

[Blue in the Face]

Big news from the Caribbean World Series, with the defection of the Gourriel brothers from the Cuban team. ["An open attitude of surrender to the merchants of professional baseball for profit", according to the Cuban communist party newspaper]. Their father is a real legend of Cuban baseball, and two other brothers were long-time stars as well, so this is surely not being well received back home. Older brother Yulieski Gourriel has been a standout in past World Baseball Classics, and will be eligible for free agency right away once he's cleared by MLB. He's already 31, but was ranked by baseball america as the #1 player in Cuba, so should draw a lot of interest. Younger brother Lourdes hasn't been as accomplished, but he's only 22. He'd be subject to international bonus pools until his birthday in October, which would limit the teams that could bid on him before then. It'll be interesting to see if he pursues a deal right away, or punts the year to try and get a bigger contract in the fall.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/ct-cuban-baseball-player-mlb-20160208-story.html

[brevity]

Big news from the Caribbean World Series, with the defection of the Gourriel brothers from the Cuban team. ["An open attitude of surrender to the merchants of professional baseball for profit", according to the Cuban communist party newspaper].

So they've already signed with the Yankees? That was quick.

[DU82]

So they've already signed with the Yankees? That was quick.

I believe the Dodgers have taken over that title.

[Blue in the Face]

The NY Post had good poll today. Bigger moron: Mejia or JPP?

Mejia jumps out to a commanding lead. (At least until JPP gets himself back to a fireworks store).


New York Mets pitcher Jenrry Mejia has received a permanent suspension from Major League Baseball after testing positive for a banned performance-enhancing substance for the third time. Major League Baseball announced the suspension Friday, saying that Mejia tested positive for Boldenone and that the right-hander also is permanently suspended from playing Minor League Baseball. Mejia, 26, is the first player in baseball history to receive a permanent suspension under MLB's joint drug prevention and treatment program.
So we can make fun of him, but really, he's just a trailblazer.


http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14768114/jenrry-mejia-new-york-mets-suspended-permanently-mlb-third-positive-ped-test

[duke74]

Mejia jumps out to a commanding lead. (At least until JPP gets himself back to a fireworks store).


So we can make fun of him, but really, he's just a trailblazer.


http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14768114/jenrry-mejia-new-york-mets-suspended-permanently-mlb-third-positive-ped-test

Thank God Familia became a dominant closer last year. Moron's role was unclear this year anyhow.

As we say around here, next play (in a different context of course).