Phase 0 2015-2016 (Exhibitions)

[SilkyJ]

I'm still recovering from yesterday's thriller, but with the first exhibition game days away, its officially time for the very official phase posts. We are replacing 4/5 starters, a fantastic senior leader, and a massive amount of production from last year. Needless to say that leaves a lot of questions as we enter the season, probably more than usual. I will seek to identify the questions and gaps on our team and then suggest how we can address them to reach our ultimate goal: back to back banners. I humbly (ha!) submit my opinions for consideration:

1) Health
Obligatory health section. We seem to be in good shape heading into our first exhibition, which we should expect (if people are getting injured in practice we’re doing something wrong), but its not always the case.

2) Leadership
I have long pounded the drums on this subject and am a firm believer that at least one strong senior leader must be among our best players/contributors to make a deep run in March. I’ve posted about this so many times (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?27545-Phase-IV-%282011-2012%29&p=550279#post550279), but I’ll run the numbers back for y’all. There has been only 1 Duke final four team (out of 11) that did not have a senior amongst it top ~3 best players: 1991. That team featured a bunch of mid-classmen (Laetter, Hurley, T.Hill, Davis) and some no-name freshman named Grant Hill. It overcame this senior gap by having 3 guys’ whose jerseys hang in the rafters and have a small army of rings, all American trophies, ACC POY trophies, and final 4 MOP trophies between them. The senior who played the most was Koubek @ 15mpg. Every other team had a senior in what I would call “the top 2”:

'86: Dawkins
'89: Ferry
'90: Henderson
'91: see above
'92: Laettner
'94: Hill
'99: Langdon
'01: Battier
'04: Duhon*
'10: Scheyer
'15: Cook

Half of those guys have their jersey hanging in the rafter.

*Duhon was the 5th leading scorer on the ’04 team, but was the top minutes getter, top assist man and might have been the most important player. When he went down late in the year (ACC tourney IIRC) we all were extremely worried. Again, that team overcame the lack of a big senior scorer by starting 5 NBA players (Redick, Deng, Duhon, Sheld, Ewing) and bringing a 6th off the bench (Shav, who cashed an NBA paycheck for 10 years).

Conversely, look at our teams since 2000 without a strong senior leader (or senior amongst its top 2-3 players) and in particular how far they went in March.

’02: Strong junior presence led by juniors Jwill, Dun, and Boozer and transfer eligible Dahntay, but no senior leadership whatsoever (Christensen was the senior who logged the most minutes). Sweet 16.
’07: No scholarship seniors on the roster. The worst duke seasons since ’95. First round loss.
’09: Greg Paulus begins the year as the senior who should emerge, but regresses badly and loses his starting job. 2nd round loss.
’12: Miles is the lone senior, has a decent season but only starts half the games and compiles a 6&7 stat line. An effective rebounder/post man, but not a presence you have to plan for. First round loss.
’14: Our seniors are Tyler and Josh, both marginal players at best (a combined 4.5ppg) First round loss.

After the '14 loss to Mercer, K called this issue out in his summer presser saying that we didn't have enough talented leadership. He must have started reading my emails, though I still haven't received my walk-on invitation :)

To the present: this team clearly lacks this person. I intentionally put this issue #1 (sort of), same as I did in the phase post linked above, b/c I view this issue to be our biggest obstacle. I want to believe that Amile or Marshall will emerge and earn 30mpg, but neither has a realistic chance to be in the top 2-3 scorers this year. The only upperclassman who does is Matt Jones, and I will get to that.

3) Integrating the Froshies
Integrating 6 new freshman is never easy, especially when 2 of them are going to start and 3 or 4 will see real minutes. I saw this first hand in 2002-2003 when I joined JJ, Sheld, Shav, Thompson, Dockery, and Melchionni as the heir apparents to Jwill, Dun, and 'Los (their arrivals were slightly more ballyhooed than mine). That class had 4 Mickie D’s, though really 5 with Sheld (off the court issues left him off the team) and that team started JJ and Shelden most but not all games, with Dockery and Shav playing meaningful though varying supporting roles.

This year we can expect something similar with Brandon and Derryck likely to start a lot of games, Luke and Chase playing a supporting role and likely to see their minutes fluctuate through the year. Given our reliance on freshman whom we’ve never seen play a college game, I think we are forced to look at the strength of the incoming class to estimate our abilities. While we have a #1 recruiting class,not all #1 recruiting classes are created equal. Someone recently posted this thread on Category 5 (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36592-John-Gasaway-on-quot-Category-5-quot-College-Hoops-Rosters&highlight=category) rosters, defined by incredible recruiting classes and significant returning players. The author seems to equate our last two recruiting classes b/c they hit a certain “point” threshold, but I think our classes are very different. Classes that include a consensus #1 recruit and potential #1 overall NBA pick are different than classes that don’t. Last year we had the #1 overall recruit, another top 5 recruit in Tyus (#5 entering his senior year, 7 after it), and two top 20-25 guys in Grayson and Justise. This year we have 1 top 5 guy, and 2 top 25 guys. Equally important, this class is seen as universally weaker than the ’14 or ’16 classes, so we’re getting slightly less talent in a significantly worse class. I don’t want to sound overly negative, but folks should be realistic that the quality of play from our freshman this year is not likely to rival that from a year ago and K is going to have his work cut out for him.

4) Matt Jones: This team’s X-Factor
In years where we cannot follow our traditional formula of riding a senior leader, I think we need to make big bets to compensate. In ’11-12 I quickly started the “Start Quinn Cook” thread (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?26400-Quinn-Cook-start&highlight=leader)when it became clear that our team lacked a true PG. By trying to go with Austin & Seth, we were limited in our playmaking abilities and went out early. The only way that team was going to be successful was if Quinn was running the point.

I think the same is true here. If Matt cannot emerge as a really strong contributor, I think are no better than a sweet 16 team. We need steady, consistent play and in particular scoring from an upperclassman. Matt, whose leadership has been strongly praised by K, seems to be the most likely candidate. Much of our season may hinge on his ability to make a Nolan-like Soph-Jr leap. If I’m being honest, I fear average athleticism and a fairly one-dimensional game (and he’s still not a great shooter) may hinder this jump. I’ll let Ozzie put out the good vibes for this, but I’m skeptical.

Many years where we go far in March someone or something emerges to help us make a late run. Zoubek in 2010. Justise sliding to the 4 next last year (and Matt starting). Duhon for James swap in ’01. If that is to happen this year, I think you will see it come from Matt.

5) Where will the offense come from?
Perhaps the hardest question to answer for this team will be who will lead us in scoring any given night.

The consensus seems to be that Grayson and Brandon will be our top two scorers, but after that a lot of questions emerge. Derryck seems to be a pretty natural scorer and I’d expect him to probably be our 3rd leading scorer this season, but that’s not a given by any means. Matt has the potential to score any night, but is he ready to make the leap and be a consistent offensive force? Luke looks like the best shooter on the team and might be one of our top 3 scorers, but he plays the same position as our best returning scorer (Grayson) and best defensive player/captain (Matt). If Luke’s defense is better than most freshman, then maybe he’ll see the court and I’ll worry less about scoring. He’s also likely to play spot PG duty so that could boost his minutes a bit.

So far I’ve named 4 guards and a forward. Offense for this team is undoubtedly going to come from the perimeter, and that means a lot of jump shots. If Grayson, Derryck, Brandon and Matt all turn out to be 40% 3 point shooters, or if Luke works his way to 20mpg, then offense won’t be a problem, but if they turn out to be just average then this team will struggle to score at times. We don’t have a go-to force to dump the ball into for an easy basket and our best 3 scorers are likely 2 freshman and a sophomore. We could see a lot of games in the 60s.

6) The Team’s Identity or: How I learned to stop worrying and love Amile & Marshall

Over the summer we lost our top 4 scorers, senior leader, 73% of our points, 77% of our assists, and 60% of our rebounds. The last stat is particularly telling: we return an abnormally large portion of our rebounding. Over the summer there was much debate on whether Chase and Obi would challenge MP3 and Amile for minutes down low. Early on, it appears our senior captains are well ahead of the game and I’d expect them to start early and often. With them on the court, we look poised to be a very good rebounding team: Amile and Marshall averaged 10.8 & 9.8 rebs/40min, respectively last year (~4 o-rebs/40 each). The ozzimist in me thinks we can use this to our advantage and look a lot like the 2010 team. In fact, there are a lot of similarities between the Amile/Marshall frontline and the Thomas/Zoubek frontline:

- Jefferson #21 RSCI, Thomas #20. Both were late commits. Both started on and off since their freshman year and started roughly the same # of games (59 vs 62), both average ~5ppg, and are the same size at 6’8/6’9” & 225 with similar styles.
- Marshall and Zoubek check-in at the same size: 7’0v7’1 and 250v260, Zoubek was actually a much higher rated recruit at #25 RSCI vs Marshall’s #60 ranking, but both are pretty much big space eaters down low who can grab a lot of boards.

Marshall is unlikely to be anywhere near as effective as Zoubek’s 16.6reb/40mins, but Amile is also a stronger rebounder than Thomas by a 3reb/40min margin, so it could be close to a wash overall. The difference between this team and 2010 is that we don’t have a 3 headed upperclassmen monster surrounding our big guys, so Amile and Marshall will have to be extra effective.

Given that this team may struggle to score, but has great size in the post and excellent athleticism 1-3, I would expect K to reinvent the team as he did in 2010 and focus on ball pressure, defense and rebounding. Of course, the best defensive teams tend to be older and understand K’s schemes more, so focusing on defense may be tough with so many young guys. But with two seniors anchoring the post and other vets like Matt and Grayson, I think we have enough good defensive pieces and ultimately look a lot like 2010.

I will caveat this prediction and say that if we are struggling to score and win games with this formula, we could easily go small and move Ingram to the 4 and put one of Amile/MP3 on the bench. This would add another scorer (Luke or Matt) and overall allow us to play more guards, which is our strength and something K loves to do. My guess is we'll start by going big and seeing if that works, but K has no problem moving to a smaller lineup if that formula doesn't work. I expect to see some tinkering during these exhibitions and early games, and I'm curious to see if our defensive/post-heavy lineups are more effective overall than our offensive/guard-heavy lineups.

7) In K We Trust

You might get the impression from my post that I’m a little negative on this team. That might be fair. I don’t think we have a national championship level team at this point. On the flip side, looking at our competition there aren't any teams that really stand out to me as truly dominant or Category 5.

What we do have is the GOAT sitting on the bench. Players come and players go, but he wins championships decade over decade. Sometimes it happens (’15) and sometimes it doesn’t (’14), and while we hold a high bar and ultimately judge teams based on their performance in March, I am definitely looking forward to watching this team grow. Let’s let the master try and paint one more masterpiece.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Nice analysis, as always, SilkyJ. Thanks.

Positive Matt vibes will be started almost immediately. Like on Friday night when I pay attention to our Bball team for the first time. It'll be split attention, however, like loving your second child just as much as the first. It's football season and that child is having a helluva season so far! :cool:

[jimsumner]

Would you accept a minor amendment to 2014? That team also had Andre Dawkins as a senior, technically a grad student.

And I think Jefferson's ability-or lack thereof-to become a senior stud is very important to this team. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of 12 and 8 from him this year.

[SilkyJ]

Would you accept a minor amendment to 2014? That team also had Andre Dawkins as a senior, technically a grad student.

And I think Jefferson's ability-or lack thereof-to become a senior stud is very important to this team. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of 12 and 8 from him this year.

Re: '14: good amendment, though I think you'll agree that my point still holds. Andre only started 4 games, played 13mpg and was our 5th leading scorer. A senior stud he was not.

That year Andre did average 0.58pts/min, or ~23pts/40mins. My guess is that rates as a top 10 season in terms of scoring productivity among Duke players in the modern era (calling our keeper of stats: Kedsy). Being that senior stud is a lot more than scoring. Its about leadership, consistency, being the go-to guy in crunch time, making critical defensive plays, intangibles, etc. Andre just wasn't in a position to be that guy.

I would love to see Amile emerge. 12 & 8 would be a really good season for him and is well within reach, but I don't think it will be enough to make him "a top 2 guy." In the list I ran down above, the lowest PPG average, besides Duhon's, was Cook's at 15ppg. Amile may be in a position to get to 14-15ppg, but it will take a significant jump. Let's hope he or Matt can make that leap.

[SilkyJ]

'86: Dawkins
'89: Ferry
'90: Henderson
'91: see above
'92: Laettner
'94: Hill
'99: Langdon
'01: Battier
'04: Duhon*
'10: Scheyer
'15: Cook


Thanks to Brevity for pointing out that I missed 1988. Junior Danny Ferry led the team in scoring at 19ppg, followed by Senior guard Kevin Strickland at 16ppg. Senior Billy King was also a captain, started all 35 games, and anchored the D.

[jimsumner]

Re: '14: good amendment, though I think you'll agree that my point still holds. Andre only started 4 games, played 13mpg and was our 5th leading scorer. A senior stud he was not.

That year Andre did average 0.58pts/min, or ~23pts/40mins. My guess is that rates as a top 10 season in terms of scoring productivity among Duke players in the modern era (calling our keeper of stats: Kedsy). Being that senior stud is a lot more than scoring. Its about leadership, consistency, being the go-to guy in crunch time, making critical defensive plays, intangibles, etc. Andre just wasn't in a position to be that guy.

I would love to see Amile emerge. 12 & 8 would be a really good season for him and is well within reach, but I don't think it will be enough to make him "a top 2 guy." In the list I ran down above, the lowest PPG average, besides Duhon's, was Cook's at 15ppg. Amile may be in a position to get to 14-15ppg, but it will take a significant jump. Let's hope he or Matt can make that leap.

Including Dawkins with '88 does change the 4.5 ppg narrative. And I wasn't suggesting Jefferson as a top-2 player but as another bullet point, every bit as important as anything Matt Jones does.

[fidel]

Silky, this Phase post is Jumbo-esque. Well done.

This team is an uncut diamond right now. So much potential, so much risk. This is going to be a fun year.

[Troublemaker]

SilkyJ - Thanks for the excellent Phase 0 post to kick off the season!

Like Jim, I believe Amile is the best bet to answer a couple of your important questions, i.e. senior leader who's a top-3 player overall, and also the third-leading scorer. I think Jim's estimate of 12 ppg for him is reasonable. It'd be a relatively consistent 12 ppg that Amile would score. By contrast, Luke might come off the bench and score 16 points one night because he's hot but then only 4 points the next game because either we didn't need his shooting that game or because he was off, thus averaging out to less than 12 ppg. I could envision any of Luke, Derryck, Matt, and even Marshall averaging in the high single-digits for scoring in support of the top scorers.

[fuse]

Would you accept a minor amendment to 2014? That team also had Andre Dawkins as a senior, technically a grad student.

And I think Jefferson's ability-or lack thereof-to become a senior stud is very important to this team. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of 12 and 8 from him this year.

Not in any way questioning your judgment/insight.
If Amile is a consistent 12/8 guy, this team has the opportunity to maximize their potential.

Someone pointed out the best Duke teams have at least three reliable scorers.
Adding Amile to the list of scoring threats with Ingram and our guards will really open up the floor.

[NYBri]

Would you accept a minor amendment to 2014? That team also had Andre Dawkins as a senior, technically a grad student.

And I think Jefferson's ability-or lack thereof-to become a senior stud is very important to this team. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of 12 and 8 from him this year.

An eight to ten foot jumper would help with that. We'll see if he's comfortable with it.

[Olympic Fan]

Someone recently posted this thread on Category 5 (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36592-John-Gasaway-on-quot-Category-5-quot-College-Hoops-Rosters&highlight=category) rosters, defined by incredible recruiting classes and significant returning players. The author seems to equate our last two recruiting classes b/c they hit a certain “point” threshold, but I think our classes are very different. Classes that include a consensus #1 recruit and potential #1 overall NBA pick are different than classes that don’t. Last year we had the #1 overall recruit, another top 5 recruit in Tyus (#5 entering his senior year, 7 after it), and two top 20-25 guys in Grayson and Justise. This year we have 1 top 5 guy, and 2 top 25 guys. Equally important, this class is seen as universally weaker than the ’14 or ’16 classes, so we’re getting slightly less talent in a significantly worse class. I don’t want to sound overly negative, but folks should be realistic that the quality of play from our freshman this year is not likely to rival that from a year ago and K is going to have his work cut out for him.

The problem with equating classes from year to year is simply that all classes are not created equal. In fact, no classes are.

The 2013 Class that produced Okafor, Winslow, Jones and Allen is one of the strongest, deepest classes in modern times.

The 2014 Class that produced Ingram, Kennard, Jeter and Thornton isn't regarded as NEARLY as strong. So getting the No. 5 player in 2013 is a very different thing than getting the No. 5 player in 2014. Just one example -- Justise Winslow was not a top 10 payer in the Class of 2013 ... he would easily be top 5 in the class of 2014.

So no -- even though the rankings are similar, it would be a big mistake to equate this year's Duke recruiting class with last year's. That's not to say that this year's class is bad or even mediocre, but relative to the upperclass talent in college basketball, it's not as good as last year's class.

FWIW, next year's class is shaping up to be a good one. Maybe not quite as strong as 2013, but much stronger than 2014.

[SilkyJ]

Including Dawkins with '88 does change the 4.5 ppg narrative. And I wasn't suggesting Jefferson as a top-2 player but as another bullet point, every bit as important as anything Matt Jones does.

Sorry, you lost me. Are you referring to King/Strickland in '88? Or Dawkins in '14? None of them averaged 4.5ppg, they averaged 16.1, 5.1, and 7.9, respectively, in their final seasons.

I think you're referring to King in '88, but that doesn't change the narrative as Strickland was a senior captain, started 34 of 35 games and was our 2nd leading scorer at 16ppg.

I agree with your last point: Amile is likely to be every bit as important as Matt, but IMHO one of them needs to get north of 12-14ppg in order for us to make a deep March run. I really see it as a binary, which I realize is not necessarily how others think.


The problem with equating classes from year to year is simply that all classes are not created equal. In fact, no classes are.

The 2013 Class that produced Okafor, Winslow, Jones and Allen is one of the strongest, deepest classes in modern times.

The 2014 Class that produced Ingram, Kennard, Jeter and Thornton isn't regarded as NEARLY as strong. So getting the No. 5 player in 2013 is a very different thing than getting the No. 5 player in 2014. Just one example -- Justise Winslow was not a top 10 payer in the Class of 2013 ... he would easily be top 5 in the class of 2014.

So no -- even though the rankings are similar, it would be a big mistake to equate this year's Duke recruiting class with last year's. That's not to say that this year's class is bad or even mediocre, but relative to the upperclass talent in college basketball, it's not as good as last year's class.

FWIW, next year's class is shaping up to be a good one. Maybe not quite as strong as 2013, but much stronger than 2014.

Can't tell if you're trying to agree or disagree with me, but we are very much on the same page. Your years off, however. Okafor, Winslow, Jones, Allen were in the HS class of 2014, and the current class (Ingram, et al) is the class of 2015. So when I say the class of 2015 (i.e. our current froshies) is weaker than the '14 and '16 class (the part of my post you bolded), I think we're on the same page.

Moreover, as you point out, the '14 class (Okafor et al) was one of the deeper classes in the last decade, so we should expect a drop off this year given we are almost equally as reliant on freshman this year as we were last year.

[Saratoga2]

I will caveat this prediction and say that if we are struggling to score and win games with this formula, we could easily go small and move Ingram to the 4 and put one of Amile/MP3 on the bench. This would add another scorer (Luke or Matt) and overall allow us to play more guards, which is our strength and something K loves to do. My guess is we'll start by going big and seeing if that works, but K has no problem moving to a smaller lineup if that formula doesn't work. I expect to see some tinkering during these exhibitions and early games, and I'm curious to see if our defensive/post-heavy lineups are more effective overall than our offensive/guard-heavy lineups.

In K We Trust

Taking for last point first, we have a decided advantage with coach K and the staff. They have a proven record but more than that, coach K learned to set alignments to best utilize the talent on the team. This team has what appears to be special defensive abilities. I expect coach K to use Amile and Matt to stabilize the defense with both Brandon and Derryck having the physical characteristics to be exceptional defenders. I also feel Grayson has shown growth in his defensive abilities. We have big men who are in my mind questionable. So I believe coach K will emphasize defense pressure and attempt to develop the offense throughout the season.

Where will the offense come from?

I agree this is a serious question since we lost so much from last years championship team. It is unlikely that we will get a lot of inside scoring from Marshall and while Amile may improve offensively, he is probably not more than a ten point a game guy. Chase is a freshman and may not get significant minutes and will have to adapt to DIV I play.
Like most people, I believe the majority of the scoring will have to come from the guards and small forward positions. Brandon has a lot of ability and perhaps can give us a double digit scoring average. Matt will also chip in but expecting more than a 10 or 12 point average from him is probably optimistic. Grayson has shown great slashing ability but this year may draw the opponents best defender. Derryck is a freshman as is Luke. Both may be able to chip in so that opponents will have to deal with multiple threats. Comments related to Justin to date makes one wonder if he is a dark horse that will get minutes and provide some scoring. Coach K has numbers so pushing the ball makes sense this year. Fast break and points after turnovers could become a significant percentage of our points.

Integrating the Frosh

Yes we have a lot of freshmen. Most of the talk surrounds Brandon and Derryck, however Luke and Chase could well get increasing playing time as the season continues. Then we have Sean, while not a frosh, he has yet to see the floor in a scheduled game. Throw in Antonio and Justin and we have a large number of neophytes who will be a challenge to smoothly integrate into our team concept. Brandon and Derryck will have to come along quickly and contribute right away as starters and play well on both sides of the ball for us to be competitive. Luke is potentially an offensive weapon. If he proves to be anything like Jon Scheyer, we could have a real find in him. The others are a wait and see game. The idea put forth of leadership is critical. It will have to fall to Matt and Amile to encourage the freshmen to play team ball as our coaches on the floor.

[dukejim1]

I believe Kennard will be a good ppm guy and will be the third scorer if he can play enough defense to get the minutes. It will also be key if Grayson and he can play in the same combination.






I will caveat this prediction and say that if we are struggling to score and win games with this formula, we could easily go small and move Ingram to the 4 and put one of Amile/MP3 on the bench. This would add another scorer (Luke or Matt) and overall allow us to play more guards, which is our strength and something K loves to do. My guess is we'll start by going big and seeing if that works, but K has no problem moving to a smaller lineup if that formula doesn't work. I expect to see some tinkering during these exhibitions and early games, and I'm curious to see if our defensive/post-heavy lineups are more effective overall than our offensive/guard-heavy lineups.

In K We Trust

Taking for last point first, we have a decided advantage with coach K and the staff. They have a proven record but more than that, coach K learned to set alignments to best utilize the talent on the team. This team has what appears to be special defensive abilities. I expect coach K to use Amile and Matt to stabilize the defense with both Brandon and Derryck having the physical characteristics to be exceptional defenders. I also feel Grayson has shown growth in his defensive abilities. We have big men who are in my mind questionable. So I believe coach K will emphasize defense pressure and attempt to develop the offense throughout the season.

Where will the offense come from?

I agree this is a serious question since we lost so much from last years championship team. It is unlikely that we will get a lot of inside scoring from Marshall and while Amile may improve offensively, he is probably not more than a ten point a game guy. Chase is a freshman and may not get significant minutes and will have to adapt to DIV I play.
Like most people, I believe the majority of the scoring will have to come from the guards and small forward positions. Brandon has a lot of ability and perhaps can give us a double digit scoring average. Matt will also chip in but expecting more than a 10 or 12 point average from him is probably optimistic. Grayson has shown great slashing ability but this year may draw the opponents best defender. Derryck is a freshman as is Luke. Both may be able to chip in so that opponents will have to deal with multiple threats. Comments related to Justin to date makes one wonder if he is a dark horse that will get minutes and provide some scoring. Coach K has numbers so pushing the ball makes sense this year. Fast break and points after turnovers could become a significant percentage of our points.





Integrating the Frosh

Yes we have a lot of freshmen. Most of the talk surrounds Brandon and Derryck, however Luke and Chase could well get increasing playing time as the season continues. Then we have Sean, while not a frosh, he has yet to see the floor in a scheduled game. Throw in Antonio and Justin and we have a large number of neophytes who will be a challenge to smoothly integrate into our team concept. Brandon and Derryck will have to come along quickly and contribute right away as starters and play well on both sides of the ball for us to be competitive. Luke is potentially an offensive weapon. If he proves to be anything like Jon Scheyer, we could have a real find in him. The others are a wait and see game. The idea put forth of leadership is critical. It will have to fall to Matt and Amile to encourage the freshmen to play team ball as our coaches on the floor.

[Furniture]

Funny fact is that nobody really knows but what fun is there without speculation!
Maybe Luke is going to be like Seth so with this team will we see the return of the phrase "live by the three, die by the three"?

[superdave]

2) Leadership
I have long pounded the drums on this subject and am a firm believer that at least one strong senior leader must be among our best players/contributors to make a deep run in March. I’ve posted about this so many times (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?27545-Phase-IV-%282011-2012%29&p=550279#post550279), but I’ll run the numbers back for y’all. There has been only 1 Duke final four team (out of 11) that did not have a senior amongst it top ~3 best players: 1991. That team featured a bunch of mid-classmen (Laetter, Hurley, T.Hill, Davis) and some no-name freshman named Grant Hill. It overcame this senior gap by having 3 guys’ whose jerseys hang in the rafters and have a small army of rings, all American trophies, ACC POY trophies, and final 4 MOP trophies between them. The senior who played the most was Koubek @ 15mpg. Every other team had a senior in what I would call “the top 2”:

'86: Dawkins
'89: Ferry
'90: Henderson
'91: see above
'92: Laettner
'94: Hill
'99: Langdon
'01: Battier
'04: Duhon*
'10: Scheyer
'15: Cook

Half of those guys have their jersey hanging in the rafter.

*Duhon was the 5th leading scorer on the ’04 team, but was the top minutes getter, top assist man and might have been the most important player. When he went down late in the year (ACC tourney IIRC) we all were extremely worried. Again, that team overcame the lack of a big senior scorer by starting 5 NBA players (Redick, Deng, Duhon, Sheld, Ewing) and bringing a 6th off the bench (Shav, who cashed an NBA paycheck for 10 years).

Conversely, look at our teams since 2000 without a strong senior leader (or senior amongst its top 2-3 players) and in particular how far they went in March.

’02: Strong junior presence led by juniors Jwill, Dun, and Boozer and transfer eligible Dahntay, but no senior leadership whatsoever (Christensen was the senior who logged the most minutes). Sweet 16.
’07: No scholarship seniors on the roster. The worst duke seasons since ’95. First round loss.
’09: Greg Paulus begins the year as the senior who should emerge, but regresses badly and loses his starting job. 2nd round loss.
’12: Miles is the lone senior, has a decent season but only starts half the games and compiles a 6&7 stat line. An effective rebounder/post man, but not a presence you have to plan for. First round loss.
’14: Our seniors are Tyler and Josh, both marginal players at best (a combined 4.5ppg) First round loss.

After the '14 loss to Mercer, K called this issue out in his summer presser saying that we didn't have enough talented leadership. He must have started reading my emails, though I still haven't received my walk-on invitation :)

To the present: this team clearly lacks this person. I intentionally put this issue #1 (sort of), same as I did in the phase post linked above, b/c I view this issue to be our biggest obstacle. I want to believe that Amile or Marshall will emerge and earn 30mpg, but neither has a realistic chance to be in the top 2-3 scorers this year. The only upperclassman who does is Matt Jones, and I will get to that.



Thanks for kicking the Phase posts off for us, Silky. Good work here.

From my perspective, Matt is the personality guy that the freshmen gravitate towards. I think that has been mentioned in a few articles. Amile is more the no-nonesense leader who is not as high on the cool factor scale as Matt. That probably works pretty well as a combo.

I think it is also helpful to look at our last two titles for guidance. In 2010, Coach K found a grind it out system that worked for the personnel, and put them in a position to maximize their efficiency. In 2015, Coach K had a supremely talented group and put them in a position to grow together and make plays and exploit matchups. They could overcome poor stretches to play flawless basketball for big stretches (@UVa and the Title Game).

Where does this team fall on that contiuum, or is there another way Coach K will find to win? He's mentioned ratcheting up the defensive pressure and has the athletes to do it. Let's see what that looks like, and if these guys are good enough at it to stick with the press/trap scheme for a the whole season. Easy, transition buckets off live ball turnovers are nice. That may be a good way for a young team to start the season until they learn the motion offense and how to maximize their strengths and exploit opponents. I do expect the path to meander a bit and the end product in March to look pretty different from what we see the next month or so.

[luvdahops]

Would you accept a minor amendment to 2014? That team also had Andre Dawkins as a senior, technically a grad student.

And I think Jefferson's ability-or lack thereof-to become a senior stud is very important to this team. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of 12 and 8 from him this year.

I am with you Jim. I think Amile is much more likely to break through as a scorer this year than Matt. And I think he fits the pattern of guys like Tong Lang, Chris Collins, Quinn and others of guys who have been up and down contributors in their first three seasons but came up big as seniors.

I love Matt and what he brings both tangibly and intangibly. But with the composition of this year's roster, it is hard for me to envision him getting either the minutes or the touches to be much more than a 7-8 ppg scorer. Unless he has expanded his offensive game dramatically.

[Potato Head]

I don't think senior leadership is super important in the tournament, it's more about having players step up/get hot at the right time, which freshmen like Tyus, Justise, and Grayson did as much as any of the upperclassmen. Where the experience hurts will probably be conference season.

I also think the depth of this team will cover any drop in quality, we're at least two deep with talented players at every position, with one glaring exception, and it's the one reason I think we may struggle this year. Despite the late addition of Thornton we still only have a single point guard and he's a true freshman. Experience is generally important, sure, but it's most important with the guys who have the ball the most. If we struggle it'll be because Thornton struggled and the 2's couldn't help pick up the slack.

[Kedsy]

Nice phase post, SilkyJ. Interesting stuff. Predictably, I have a few comments.


2) Leadership
I have long pounded the drums on this subject and am a firm believer that at least one strong senior leader must be among our best players/contributors to make a deep run in March.


Saying we need a senior who is one of our best players is very different from saying we need a senior who is one of our top two scorers. On the one hand, I'm not sure why having a Chris Duhon or Billy King type player would be any less of a senior leader than someone who scores 15 ppg. On the other hand, while Quinn Cook last season was a tremendous leader and happened to be our second-leading scorer, I don't know that we can honestly say he was one of our best two players. In fact, for much of last season, I seem to recall some people (don't remember if you were among them or not) making a similar argument about last year's team -- that we probably wouldn't succeed in the Tournament because all of our best players were freshmen.

Also, why is a senior leader more important than a junior leader? Does the extra year really make that much of a difference? The only thing I can think of is that seniors know this is their last go-round and might play with a sense of near-desperation, leaving it all out on the floor because this is their last chance to meet their collegiate goals. That said, I don't see a difference between a team with senior leaders and a team like our 2002 team, with four starting juniors, at least some of whom expected to leave after the season. Putting that team on the other side of the ledger feels a bit like data fitting to me. Even with that team you only list five teams on the "bad" side, and while three of those teams lost in the first round (the 2009 team lost in the Sweet 16, by the way, not the second round), I just don't think four or five is enough data points to prove your theory. Especially since Duke has had other subpar seasons and/or tournament showings where we did have a senior among our top two scorers (1987, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2008), not to mention Sweet 16 teams that underachieved compared to their regular season success (2000, 2003, 2005 (Daniel Ewing was not actually one of our top two scorers, but he was very close so I suppose we can count it), 2006, 2011), and there could have been many other reasons why the four (non-2002) teams you list didn't achieve as much as we'd hoped.

So, while I agree that successful teams need strong leadership, I don't necessarily subscribe to the narrow definition you've set. That said, I totally agree it's a good question to ask and something to watch during the 2015-16 season.



5) Where will the offense come from?[/B]
Perhaps the hardest question to answer for this team will be who will lead us in scoring any given night.

This is a really good question, in that the answer is not clear at this point (though I agree with the consensus that it'll probably be Grayson and Brandon on most nights). But it's not a question I'm particularly concerned about. The last time Coach K wasn't able to come up with a highly effective offensive scheme for a Duke team was in 2007. I have confidence that our team will be able to score.


In fact, there are a lot of similarities between the Amile/Marshall frontline and the Thomas/Zoubek frontline:

* * *

- Jefferson #21 RSCI, Thomas #20. Both were late commits. Both started on and off since their freshman year and started roughly the same # of games (59 vs 62), both average ~5ppg, and are the same size at 6’8/6’9” & 225 with similar styles.
- Marshall and Zoubek check-in at the same size: 7’0v7’1 and 250v260, Zoubek was actually a much higher rated recruit at #25 RSCI vs Marshall’s #60 ranking, but both are pretty much big space eaters down low who can grab a lot of boards.

Marshall is unlikely to be anywhere near as effective as Zoubek’s 16.6reb/40mins, but Amile is also a stronger rebounder than Thomas by a 3reb/40min margin, so it could be close to a wash overall. The difference between this team and 2010 is that we don’t have a 3 headed upperclassmen monster surrounding our big guys, so Amile and Marshall will have to be extra effective.

I think this is a stretch. While it's true Amile is a much better rebounder than Lance Thomas ever was, Marshall's rebound per 40 minutes numbers for his three seasons at Duke were: 8.8, 10.2, and 9.8. Looking at Zoubek's 16.6 rp40, that's a lot bigger difference than Amile's advantage over Thomas. As much as we all want Marshall to reproduce Zoubek's senior season, the fact remains that Marshall is not a "big space eater down low who can grab a lot of boards." He's a pretty good defensive player who can dunk and block some shots.



Given that this team may struggle to score, but has great size in the post and excellent athleticism 1-3, I would expect K to reinvent the team as he did in 2010 and focus on ball pressure, defense and rebounding. Of course, the best defensive teams tend to be older and understand K’s schemes more, so focusing on defense may be tough with so many young guys. But with two seniors anchoring the post and other vets like Matt and Grayson, I think we have enough good defensive pieces and ultimately look a lot like 2010.


This is a really good point. I expect defense to be our calling card this season, but it's true that at least in the recent past it has seemed that our freshmen have struggled to master Coach K's defensive concepts. The key in my mind will be whether Derryck and Brandon live up to their defensive reputation and potential. If they can both dominate defensively, then adding them to Amile, Marshall, Matt, and Grayson should make us truly fearsome on the defensive end. If they don't, the season may not go as well as we hope.

That said, I don't think our defense will look at all like 2010. Our 2010 team played a very unusual defense for a Duke team, a sagging man-to-man that used great rotation and help D to cut off two-point shots, while closing out quickly on the many threes our opponents felt obligated to take. The rotations and positioning required a lot of system knowledge and experience, something this year's team doesn't really have, but what actually made the 2010 team's defense so good was that while our opponents took more than 34% of their shots from three point range, they only made 28.2% of those three-point shots, the lowest opposing three-point success rate ever for a Duke team. And if you believe Pomeroy on that subject, the low opposing percentage might have largely been a product of luck. So the 2010 team's defense might not have even been as good as we thought it was.

In contrast, this year's team should be able to play vintage Duke D -- make it difficult for opponent's to initiate a play, swarm the passing lanes to force turnovers, make playing offense a chore for our opponents. Perhaps a top 10 D as in 2010, but looking and feeling very different.


That year Andre did average 0.58pts/min, or ~23pts/40mins. My guess is that rates as a top 10 season in terms of scoring productivity among Duke players in the modern era (calling our keeper of stats: Kedsy).

Close, but not quite top 10. Here are Duke's top point per minute scorers over the past 20 years:

1. JJ Redick, 2006: 28.86 pp40
2. Jason Williams, 2001: 27.13 pp40
3. Roshown McLeod, 1998: 25.77 pp40
4. Carlos Boozer, 2002: 25.70 pp40
5. Jason Williams, 2002: 25.40 pp40
6. Kyrie Irving, 2011: 25.35 pp40
7. Jabari Parker, 2014: 24.98 pp40
8. Nolan Smith, 2011: 24.27 pp40
9. Elton Brand, 1999: 24.22 pp40
10. Corey Maggette, 1999: 23.97 pp40
11. JJ Redick, 2005: 23.43 pp40
12. Andre Dawkins, 2014: 23.13 pp40
13. Dahntay Jones, 2003: 23.00 pp40
14. Shane Battier, 2001: 22.83 pp40
15. Elton Brand, 1998: 22.80 pp40
16. Taylor King, 2008, 22.55 pp40

Not sure how far back the "modern era" goes, but I believe there were several more per minute scorers ahead of Andre if we go all the way back to the beginning of Coach K's tenure.

[gam7]

Great post, SilkyJ - good insight as usual.

Could one of the phase posters provide an overview of the phase starts/ends this year? Specifically, is the 18-game conference season broken up into two nine-game phases? Two phases, each ending with Carolina? Three six-game phases? Three phases broken up more strategically? My vote would be for the conference season to be broken into three phases - 5-8-5. First of the conference phases ending with Notre Dame at home. Second conference phase is the pivotal stretch of the season, starting with Syracuse at home to (hopefully) get our feet under us, and then 3 game road trip, followed by very tough homestand (State-->Louisville-->UVA) and topped off with @Carolina. Third phase would have @Louisville and Carolina at home as bookends.

[tux]

This is a really good point. I expect defense to be our calling card this season, but it's true that at least in the recent past it has seemed that our freshmen have struggled to master Coach K's defensive concepts. The key in my mind will be whether Derryck and Brandon live up to their defensive reputation and potential.

I don't necessarily expect Duke to struggle on D, but I'm skeptical that Duke will be able to ratchet up the pressure. K has promised pressure in several pre-seasons only to retreat once the season starts. Maybe Derryck and Brandon are relatively good defenders, but they're still freshmen and freshmen have a habit of getting a bit lost on that end of the court. I.e., I'll believe it when I see it.

That said, I do see this team a little like 2010. I think we'll have to grind it out much more than last year's team. Focus on getting good shots, not turning it over, and playing solid *team* defense in the half court. To me, Marshall is the biggest unknown and thus IMO has the biggest chance to take a surprising leap. His MPG should go up the most compared to Amile and Matt. I'm interested to see how he plays when he's on the court for longer stretches (and also in the 2nd half) of games. For some reason, I'm optimistic.

[MChambers]

I don't necessarily expect Duke to struggle on D, but I'm skeptical that Duke will be able to ratchet up the pressure. K has promised pressure in several pre-seasons only to retreat once the season starts. Maybe Derryck and Brandon are relatively good defenders, but they're still freshmen and freshmen have a habit of getting a bit lost on that end of the court. I.e., I'll believe it when I see it.
Agreed. Despite having coached many teams that played great defense, half court D has always been the key for Coach K.

One caveat: the new shot clock may encourage a full court press that slows the offense from getting into a half court set.

[Kedsy]

Great post, SilkyJ - good insight as usual.

Could one of the phase posters provide an overview of the phase starts/ends this year? Specifically, is the 18-game conference season broken up into two nine-game phases? Two phases, each ending with Carolina? Three six-game phases? Three phases broken up more strategically? My vote would be for the conference season to be broken into three phases - 5-8-5. First of the conference phases ending with Notre Dame at home. Second conference phase is the pivotal stretch of the season, starting with Syracuse at home to (hopefully) get our feet under us, and then 3 game road trip, followed by very tough homestand (State-->Louisville-->UVA) and topped off with @Carolina. Third phase would have @Louisville and Carolina at home as bookends.

I'm pretty sure we decided to go with 6-7-5: BC through Syracuse; NCSU through UNC; Louisville through UNC.

[Kedsy]

I don't necessarily expect Duke to struggle on D, but I'm skeptical that Duke will be able to ratchet up the pressure. K has promised pressure in several pre-seasons only to retreat once the season starts. Maybe Derryck and Brandon are relatively good defenders, but they're still freshmen and freshmen have a habit of getting a bit lost on that end of the court. I.e., I'll believe it when I see it.

We'll see. If Derryck can be the ball-hound everyone says he can then the pressure would start there. We haven't really had a guy like that since 2004. If Brandon can use his length on the perimeter, and Matt can shut down his man, and Grayson can use his motor and athleticism, then the passing lanes will be more perilous than usual for our opponents. If Amile and Marshall play the solid positional defense we've seen from them in the past, then even if there's a breakdown on the perimeter we'll be OK most of the time.

So while it's true that Tyus and Jahlil and Jabari and Austin got "a bit lost on that end of the court," over the longer haul we've seen Tommy Amaker and Bobby Hurley and Grant Hill and Shane Battier and Chris Duhon and Justise Winslow (among others) show serious defensive chops right out of the gate. I agree we won't know until we see, but Derryck at least has that sort of reputation, while Tyus/Jahlil/Jabari/Austin did not.


That said, I do see this team a little like 2010. I think we'll have to grind it out much more than last year's team. Focus on getting good shots, not turning it over, and playing solid *team* defense in the half court. To me, Marshall is the biggest unknown and thus IMO has the biggest chance to take a surprising leap. His MPG should go up the most compared to Amile and Matt. I'm interested to see how he plays when he's on the court for longer stretches (and also in the 2nd half) of games. For some reason, I'm optimistic.

I just don't see the resemblance to the 2010 team. That team started three seniors and two juniors in the Final Four. The "alarmingly unathletic" quote, while misguided on many levels, did have a kernel of truth. The veteran team played at a slow pace, made few mistakes on offense, and played a sagging defense dependent on experience and positioning. They did things that experienced teams do. This team appears very young and very athletic, should play at a much faster pace and, with a freshman PG, make more mistakes with the ball. And if we play to our defensive strengths, our D won't resemble that team's D any significant aspect. We may want the team to "focus on getting good shots, not turning it over and playing solid *team* defense in the half-court," but that's not generally the way young teams do it.

[superdave]

3 Point Shooting
Ingram 1-9 11.1%
Allen 4-10 40.0%
Jones 3-6 50.0%
Kennard 8-18 44.4%
Thornton 5-12 41.67%

Team 22-56 39.3%

Assists : Turnovers
Ingram 3:6
Allen 11:5
Jones 4:0
Kennard 6:2
Thornton 4:1

[superdave]

Rebounding
Jefferson 14 in 24 minutes 23.3 per 40 minutes
Plumlee 15 in 44 13.6 per 40
Jeter 16 in 37 17.3 per
Obi 8 in 19 16.8 per
Vrankovic 2 in 10 8 per
Robinson 3 in 10 12 per


Field Goal %
Jefferson 8-8 100%
Plumlee 11-13 84.6%
Jeter 8-8 100%
Obi 3-4 75.0%
Vrankovic 1-2 50.0%
Robinson 0-2 0.0%

[CDu]

Rebounding
Jefferson 14 in 24 minutes 23.3 per 40 minutes
Plumlee 15 in 44 13.6 per 40
Jeter 16 in 37 17.3 per
Obi 8 in 19 16.8 per
Vrankovic 2 in 10 8 per
Robinson 3 in 10 12 per


Field Goal %
Jefferson 8-8 100%
Plumlee 11-13 84.6%
Jeter 8-8 100%
Obi 3-4 75.0%
Vrankovic 1-2 50.0%
Robinson 0-2 0.0%

Thanks for compiling the stats. At this point, it's probably important to note that these rebound numbers are almost irrelevant. The two teams we played were TINY, so those guys should be pounding the boards (as they did).

Still, the good news is that we were supposed to blow these two opponents out, and we did so. So mission accomplished, on to Phase I!

[MChambers]

Thanks for compiling the stats. At this point, it's probably important to note that these rebound numbers are almost irrelevant. The two teams we played were TINY, so those guys should be pounding the boards (as they did).

Still, the good news is that we were supposed to blow these two opponents out, and we did so. So mission accomplished, on to Phase I!

I think the most of the stats are not very important, but my impression is that Livingstone has some size.

[CDu]

I think the most of the stats are not very important, but my impression is that Livingstone has some size.

Guys taller than 6'5" played just 53 minutes of that game, and nobody taller than 6'8". They had lots of stout guys, but they were short. Not as short as Florida Southern for sure, though.

Some of that, too, is pace of play. Both Florida Southern and Livingstone really push the tempo. That and the new rule changes resulted in a pace of play in the low-to-mid-80s.

[English]

Some of that, too, is pace of play. Both Florida Southern and Livingstone really push the tempo. That and the new rule changes resulted in a pace of play in the low-to-mid-80s.

Is that low-to-mid-80s possessions by each team? Combined possessions for both teams? I haven't heard pace of play quantified unless we're talking about the number of possessions, so I'm assuming that's what you mean.

I don't know of a handy reference for how many possessions Duke averaged last year per game, or the general D-I average for last year as an appropriate point of reference to know if low-to-mid-80s is fast or not. I'll guess from your context that, indeed, that's a fast-paced game flow.

[Kedsy]

I don't know of a handy reference for how many possessions Duke averaged last year per game, or the general D-I average for last year as an appropriate point of reference to know if low-to-mid-80s is fast or not. I'll guess from your context that, indeed, that's a fast-paced game flow.

Last year's Duke team averaged just over 66 possessions per game. That was about the 110th fastest pace in Division I. The D-I average was probably around 64 ppg. I don't think any team in Division I got as high as the low-80s, though I think a few team were in the mid-70s.

[CDu]

Is that low-to-mid-80s possessions by each team? Combined possessions for both teams? I haven't heard pace of play quantified unless we're talking about the number of possessions, so I'm assuming that's what you mean.

I don't know of a handy reference for how many possessions Duke averaged last year per game, or the general D-I average for last year as an appropriate point of reference to know if low-to-mid-80s is fast or not. I'll guess from your context that, indeed, that's a fast-paced game flow.

Possessions per team. For context, Duke averaged 66 per last year, and were above average in pace. The fastest pace last year (VMI) was 77. Most teams were in the 60-70 range.

So we are talking about 30-40 additional shots per game, meaning 15-20 or more additional rebounds per game up for grabs.

Some of that is the shot clock, so we should see some stat inflation. But a lot was the pace of play.

[Kedsy]

Possessions per team. For context, Duke averaged 66 per last year, and were above average in pace. The fastest pace last year (VMI) was 77. Most teams were in the 60-70 range.

Are you getting those numbers from KenPom? His numbers are adjusted for competition. They're probably not too far off, but I guess it depends on whether your schedule is filled with fast-paced or slow-paced teams. In Duke's case, I ran a quick calculation and got 66.2 possessions per game, which is obviously very close to Pomeroy's 66.0 ppg.

[CDu]

Are you getting those numbers from KenPom? His numbers are adjusted for competition. They're probably not too far off, but I guess it depends on whether your schedule is filled with fast-paced or slow-paced teams. In Duke's case, I ran a quick calculation and got 66.2 possessions per game, which is obviously very close to Pomeroy's 66.0 ppg.

Yes, from Pomeroy. Yes, they are adjusted, but they give you a good idea of what "normal" is. I wasn't concerned with being exact, just wanted to give a ballpark.

The pace of those first two games was WAY above what we have typically seen from Duke.