Scenario 12 - Mens Basketball

[whereinthehellami]

Scenario 12


Under Scenario 12, Duke loses 12 games and the season unfolds as follows:


Ingram is inconsistent but shows flashes of dominance, but the lottery looks like a reach. Lack of strength becomes apparent and he spends most of his time avoiding contact, settling for shots on the perimeter.
Allen becomes the number one option on offense but tends to force shots a little too much.
Jefferson, Jones, and Plumlee are what they have been. Solid role players with leadership skills but are not factors at the end of games.
Kennard is a revelation on the offense side but doesn't seem to mesh with the other starters.
Thornton struggles with his consistency (turnovers) and confidence in his shot.
Jeter gets lost in the frontcourt depth and sees sporadic minutes as an energy guy.
As a team they struggle to find the consistency and chemistry that a top 10 team needs.
The team does not make the sweet 16 but shows enough promise that most of the fan base is excited about the next year (Tatum).



How would you feel about Scenario 12?

[fuse]

Did I miss scenarios one through eleven?

[Jim3k]

It would be a good idea to see someone about that overuse of barbiturates. :cool:

[Troublemaker]

I'd be fine with that season. In fact, I might adore watching it.

This upcoming season is a classic honeymoon season for a sports fan. We're in between a national championship season from last year and, by all accounts, a loaded Preseason #1 Duke team for next year (as long as Giles commits, knock on wood).

Don't get me wrong. I will root hard for this current team to be the best in the country. But, if at some point, I realize it's just not going to happen or they're too far away, i.e. We're a 3rd place ACC team and a 4 seed in the NCAAs that probably won't make the Final Four.

Then, fine. I'll just kick back and enjoy my honeymoon season and the development of our young players and the final games of our beloved seniors.

[eddiehaskell]

We play #18 ND and #6 Virginia once. Non-conference we play #16 Utah, #1 UK and #15 Indiana. Worst case, I would think we're competitive with Utah/Indiana. I'm thinking 12 losses means we lose 8 conference games and finish 6th or 7th in the ACC.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't think we have lost 12 games in a season in nearly twenty years. Just sayin'


It certainly can happen. But I would not expect a lot of folks embracing that result with the talent we have.

[Troublemaker]

We play #18 ND and #6 Virginia once. Non-conference we play #16 Utah, #1 UK and #15 Indiana. Worst case, I would think we're competitive with Utah/Indiana. I'm thinking 12 losses means we lose 8 conference games and finish 6th or 7th in the ACC.

That's true. Scenario 12 in its exact form probably means Duke is a bubble team.

So I'll amend my previous post to say that I'd be perfectly fine with it as long as Duke makes the tournament. I'm okay with any down season where Duke at least makes the NCAAs, especially since it would be squeezed in between a national championship season and a likely Preseason #1 season.

I'll re-iterate, though, that I expect this season's team to be a top 8 team and very enjoyable to watch. Just saying, I'd be okay with the hypothetical Scenario 12.

[Indoor66]

I think the doom, gloom and boom boys might be more than slightly off base.

[whereinthehellami]

I'm not really trying to be doom and gloom, it comes naturally to me. So I got that going for me. But this was more of a would there be a scenario in which I felt the season would be hard to watch if things didn't go as well as many here have hoped. To echo Troublemaker, I personally would be fine with Scenario 12 if the team showed togetherness and growth throughout the season. Again, like Troublemaker said, as long as we get into the tourney....where anything can happen.

[superdave]

I'm not really trying to be doom and gloom, it comes naturally to me. So I got that going for me. But this was more of a would there be a scenario in which I felt the season would be hard to watch if things didn't go as well as many here have hoped. To echo Troublemaker, I personally would be fine with Scenario 12 if the team showed togetherness and growth throughout the season. Again, like Troublemaker said, as long as we get into the tourney...where anything can happen.

Is this a reverse jinx? If it is, are you allowed to say so?

If not, I hope you can find someone to hug you today.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Even for the tail end of the off season, I find this to be a strange form of navel gazing. How about this:

Would any/all of you be "okay" with a season where Grayson is NPOY, K is NCOY, we rise to the top ranking, but lose in round one of the NCAA and all our players go pro?

I understand trying to discern what levels of expectations arr, but outlining particular scenarios seems weird.

How about if we squeak into the tournament after a strong ACC tourney performance, knock off some top teams, but in the Elite Eight game, the team bus gets stuck because everyone tries to assist a stranded group of nuns on the side of the road and we forfeit the game? Would you be satisfied with that?

[Kedsy]

I don't think we have lost 12 games in a season in nearly twenty years. Just sayin'

Exactly 20 years. The last time we lost as many as 12 games in a season was 1995-96. It also happened in 1994-95, but before that it was all the way back to 1982-83. If it happens this season, I predict DBR will explode.

[tux]

Exactly 20 years. The last time we lost as many as 12 games in a season was 1995-96. It also happened in 1994-95, but before that it was all the way back to 1982-83. If it happens this season, I predict DBR will explode.

I'm with you. I'm laughing at the folks saying they'd be okay with 12 losses. Let's get to loss #10 and see what those folks are posting on this board ;)

[dukelifer]

I'm with you. I'm laughing at the folks saying they'd be okay with 12 losses. Let's get to loss #10 and see what those folks are posting on this board ;)
I suppose a lot will depend on how Duke loses those games. 12 losses is a lot but if Duke is not competitive in those games- then the wheels have fallen off and there are bigger problems at hand. Duke will struggle for sure given the lack of experience at key positions- but I expect they find themselves quickly. That is why Coach K gets the big bucks.

[phaedrus]

Exactly 20 years. The last time we lost as many as 12 games in a season was 1995-96. It also happened in 1994-95, but before that it was all the way back to 1982-83. If it happens this season, I predict DBR will explode.

But it's only been 9 years since we lost 11 games. That year, we brought back a couple of promising players after a #1 finish in the final polls. We brought in a top-10 recruit, a top-20 recruit, and a top-30 recruit. For most Duke fans I know, it was the most frustrating and least enjoyable team they'd watched in a long time*. The returning players weren't able to step up as we had hoped. The recruits did not disappoint but were not ready to carry a top team. The team lost 8 games in the ACC, got a #6 seed in the tournament, and then [unspeakable things].

I think this team will be better than the 06-07 team, in no small part because the field is weaker. But in the absence of anything substantive to discuss, it's worth considering how we'll feel if the 06-07 season ends up being the closest comparison.

*Admittedly, only because we are incredibly spoiled fans - but we're as spoiled now as we were then, maybe more so.

[CDu]

But it's only been 9 years since we lost 11 games. That year, we brought back a couple of promising players after a #1 finish in the final polls. We brought in a top-10 recruit, a top-20 recruit, and a top-30 recruit. For most Duke fans I know, it was the most frustrating and least enjoyable team they'd watched in a long time*. The returning players weren't able to step up as we had hoped. The recruits did not disappoint but were not ready to carry a top team. The team lost 8 games in the ACC, got a #6 seed in the tournament, and then [unspeakable things].

I think this team will be better than the 06-07 team, in no small part because the field is weaker. But in the absence of anything substantive to discuss, it's worth considering how we'll feel if the 06-07 season ends up being the closest comparison.

*Admittedly, only because we are incredibly spoiled fans - but we're as spoiled now as we were then, maybe more so.

I couldn't give you credit other than this post, so consider this as an alternative credit.

At first, I scoffed internally at the idea of a 12-loss season. But your post made me reconsider. While I don't think this team is in jeopardy of losing 10+ games, it's worth being aware of the possibility. It has only been 9 seasons since a similar season occurred, and in somewhat similar circumstances (losing all of the top scorers from the previous year, incorporating several frosh into the starting lineup).

I do think that this year's team has a bit of an edge in that we have senior frontcourt players and lots of frontcourt depth. But there are definitely some serious questions, including PG (like that team had) and a lack of proven scorers (like that team had). Hopefully Allen provides more of a scoring boost than Nelson did, and hopefully our freshmen are more ready to take center stage (Ingram is far ahead of Henderson in terms of ranking) right away.

[Kedsy]

I couldn't give you credit other than this post, so consider this as an alternative credit.

At first, I scoffed internally at the idea of a 12-loss season. But your post made me reconsider. While I don't think this team is in jeopardy of losing 10+ games, it's worth being aware of the possibility. It has only been 9 seasons since a similar season occurred, and in somewhat similar circumstances (losing all of the top scorers from the previous year, incorporating several frosh into the starting lineup).

I do think that this year's team has a bit of an edge in that we have senior frontcourt players and lots of frontcourt depth. But there are definitely some serious questions, including PG (like that team had) and a lack of proven scorers (like that team had). Hopefully Allen provides more of a scoring boost than Nelson did, and hopefully our freshmen are more ready to take center stage (Ingram is far ahead of Henderson in terms of ranking) right away.

The 2007 team was also a strong defensive team that had trouble scoring. BUT that team had zero seniors and only one junior on the entire roster (not counting walk-ons). And a freshman class with rankings #4, #13, #14, and #21 is far superior to one with rankings of #10, #20, #25, and #28. This year's team has advantages both in experience and talent over that year's team. We should (emphasis on "should") be a much better team than the 2007 team.

[Troublemaker]

I'm with you. I'm laughing at the folks saying they'd be okay with 12 losses. Let's get to loss #10 and see what those folks are posting on this board ;)

Hey, I can only speak for myself, but I remember being very supportive of the '07 team that Phaedrus mentioned. I believe I even compared the travails that those youngsters experienced to the growing pains that the '86 team had to endure when they were younger before they emerged as a championship-level team in '86. (Hmm, looking back, that comparison is problematic in many ways, but '83 did eventually become '86, same as '07 helped lay the foundation for '10). The timetable is much more squeezed nowadays, but I can get behind a struggling season that lays the foundation for the expected championship-level team next season. And again, a big key to all this is the national championship that was JUST won last season. If this year's team struggles, I can just pop in some games from last season and watch Tyus, Quinn, et al go to work. So many memorable games.

[tux]

The 2007 team was also a strong defensive team that had trouble scoring. BUT that team had zero seniors and only one junior on the entire roster (not counting walk-ons). And a freshman class with rankings #4, #13, #14, and #21 is far superior to one with rankings of #10, #20, #25, and #28. This year's team has advantages both in experience and talent over that year's team. We should (emphasis on "should") be a much better team than the 2007 team.

I agree. And also worth mentioning: I think K and staff have learned a lot in those 9 years about managing a relatively young team. Even if this season (talent + experience-wise) was identical to 2007, I'd expect them to find their footing much more quickly...

[mo.st.dukie]

I would not be happy with that at all. You don't just get content with bad performance just because you were great last year and might be great next year. And it's far from a given that next year will be great. Let's say this scenario happens this year and then next year we have a star player out with an injury and another not so great season. I don't think that's being spoiled at all, that's just being hungry for more. I think everybody should want that, to not be content with mediocrity because of what was accomplished in the past. Losing sucks, I don't care if we are competitive and only lose by 1 point in each of the 12 losses, it's still no fun to lose.

All that said, it's not like I'm going to talk trash about how horrible the players and coaches are if this does play out. It's not good but it's also not the end of the world nor would it spell doom for the program. Also, as others have mentioned, making the tournament is a huge plus because anything can happen there regardless of how many losses a team has. The tournament provides an opportunity for redemption and to end the season with some positives. So 12 losses but a big run to the Elite Eight, I can be fine with that.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The 2007 team was also a strong defensive team that had trouble scoring. BUT that team had zero seniors and only one junior on the entire roster (not counting walk-ons). And a freshman class with rankings #4, #13, #14, and #21 is far superior to one with rankings of #10, #20, #25, and #28. This year's team has advantages both in experience and talent over that year's team. We should (emphasis on "should") be a much better team than the 2007 team.

I agree. An 11-loss season, especially as we are ranked in the top 5-6 in most polls, would be a huge disappointment. I'm not expecting a FF appearance or even a share of the ACC reg season championship/ACC Tournament (yes, yes DBR, I understand there isn't such thing as a ACC reg season championship. But I still care about it), but I am absolutely expecting 1) an NCAA Tournament appearance, 2) less than 10 losses, 3) a second weekend in the NCAA Tournament, and 4) at least 1 UNC beatdown. Of all of these, I think 4) is the least likely. The other 3, with our coaching staff, returning players, and talented frosh, is more than achievable.

I am one of the most pessimistic posters on this board, and even I think an 11+ loss season is nearly impossible.

[phaedrus]

I agree. An 11-loss season, especially as we are ranked in the top 5-6 in most polls, would be a huge disappointment. I'm not expecting a FF appearance or even a share of the ACC reg season championship/ACC Tournament (yes, yes DBR, I understand there isn't such thing as a ACC reg season championship. But I still care about it), but I am absolutely expecting 1) an NCAA Tournament appearance, 2) less than 10 losses, 3) a second weekend in the NCAA Tournament, and 4) at least 1 UNC beatdown. Of all of these, I think 4) is the least likely. The other 3, with our coaching staff, returning players, and talented frosh, is more than achievable.

I am one of the most pessimistic posters on this board, and even I think an 11+ loss season is nearly impossible.

Just for reference, the 06-07 team was ranked #12 preseason. If I remember right, they fell out of the rankings mid-season and eventually squeaked back in.

[Wander]

At first, I scoffed internally at the idea of a 12-loss season. But your post made me reconsider. While I don't think this team is in jeopardy of losing 10+ games, it's worth being aware of the possibility. It has only been 9 seasons since a similar season occurred, and in somewhat similar circumstances (losing all of the top scorers from the previous year, incorporating several frosh into the starting lineup).

I do think that this year's team has a bit of an edge in that we have senior frontcourt players and lots of frontcourt depth. But there are definitely some serious questions, including PG (like that team had) and a lack of proven scorers (like that team had). Hopefully Allen provides more of a scoring boost than Nelson did, and hopefully our freshmen are more ready to take center stage (Ingram is far ahead of Henderson in terms of ranking) right away.

I agree, and actually I think it's probably a little bit more likely than you do. It's pretty common for the national champion to be overrated the following year, and I think that's happening here, by both the polls and the fan base. I think people are vastly underestimating how much we lost, even with a good class coming in and taking into account the whole line of thinking of "it's what you have, not what you lost." But like Troublemaker, if I'm right and we lose more games than most people think we will, I won't mind. We just won a national championship, are at absolute worst tied with Kentucky as the best college basketball program right now, and are getting great classes - as long as we don't miss the tournament entirely, I won't be disappointed in the season.

[Kedsy]

I don't think that's being spoiled at all...

High major basketball teams that have a current streak of more than two (2) consecutive seasons with fewer than 11 losses:

Kansas (26)
Duke (8)
Louisville (5)
Oregon (5)
Arizona (3)


High major basketball teams that have a current streak of more than two (2) consecutive seasons with fewer than 10 losses:

Duke (8)
Louisville (3)
Arizona (3)


NOTE: I didn't include Gonzaga (8 in both lists) or VCU (4 in both lists) because they don't (or didn't, in the case of VCU) play in high-major conferences


Those are pretty short lists. Since (and counting) 2012, every high major team except Duke has had at least one season with double-digit losses.

Let's face it, the fact that we're having this discussion proves that we're very, very spoiled.

[Li_Duke]

That 06-07 team included Freshmen Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas, and Zoubek. 3 out of 4 graduated and won a national championship in 2010, citing all the prior losing as a learning experience. If 15-16 is similar to 06-07, but we win the 2019 National Championship with seniors Thornton, Kennard, Jeter, Robinson, and Vrankovic, I would be ok with that scenario.

[lotusland]

Even for the tail end of the off season, I find this to be a strange form of navel gazing. How about this:

Would any/all of you be "okay" with a season where Grayson is NPOY, K is NCOY, we rise to the top ranking, but lose in round one of the NCAA and all our players go pro?

I understand trying to discern what levels of expectations arr, but outlining particular scenarios seems weird.

How about if we squeak into the tournament after a strong ACC tourney performance, knock off some top teams, but in the Elite Eight game, the team bus gets stuck because everyone tries to assist a stranded group of nuns on the side of the road and we forfeit the game? Would you be satisfied with that?

Is that scenario 11? How about we let the nuns fend for themselves???! Some of them can fly for crying out loud and others are known to pop school kids on the hand with a ruler!!!

[Saratoga2]

I would think it is more likely that Brandon will play small forward and prove hard to defend. Grayson is tenacious and is likely to show improvement on both sides of his game coming off such a strong performance in the tourney. Even if our upperclassmen don't show a lot of improvement we still have Derryck and Luke to shore up the scoring. Our defense should be outstanding. We are deep at the 4 and 5 positions if not NBA quality. I'm optimistic that we will hold most opponents scoring down while we will get enough to keep our losses down. I don't believe we will lose 12 and should return to the tourney and get at least to the sweet 16, barring injuries.

[sagegrouse]

I do think that this year's team has a bit of an edge in that we have senior frontcourt players and lots of frontcourt depth. But there are definitely some serious questions, including PG (like that team had) and a lack of proven scorers (like that team had). Hopefully Allen provides more of a scoring boost than Nelson did, and hopefully our freshmen are more ready to take center stage (Ingram is far ahead of Henderson in terms of ranking) right away.

Another factor is coaching: K has, as we saw last season, adapted to coaching in the one-and-done era. Moreover, he's a better coach and recruiter than ten years ago, thanks to his U.S. national team experience (the recruiting due to his soaring rep and the coaching due to his exposure to NBA players and other great coaches).

[sagegrouse]

That 06-07 team included Freshmen Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas, and Zoubek. 3 out of 4 graduated and won a national championship in 2010, citing all the prior losing as a learning experience. If 15-16 is similar to 06-07, but we win the 2019 National Championship with seniors Thornton, Kennard, Jeter, Robinson, and Vrankovic, I would be ok with that scenario.

Not sure what you meant, but all four got Duke degrees.

[Li_Duke]

Not sure what you meant, but all four got Duke degrees.

But only 3 won a national championship in 2010. :)

However, point taken; I should have said "stayed in school until after their senior year".

[CDu]

Another factor is coaching: K has, as we saw last season, adapted to coaching in the one-and-done era. Moreover, he's a better coach and recruiter than ten years ago, thanks to his U.S. national team experience (the recruiting due to his soaring rep and the coaching due to his exposure to NBA players and other great coaches).

Yes, Coach K's handling of the one-and-done era is certainly a plus. Though that has manifested itself most in the defensive side of the ball. Strangely enough, Duke's 2007 team was terrific defensively (thanks in large part to Nelson and McRoberts), but struggled to be the worst Duke team offensively in the KenPom era (they finished 51st in offensive efficiency - the only Duke team to finish outside the top-20 since probably the mid-90s).

I do think we're better positioned to not slip as much as we did that year, for a few reasons:
1. Our top-tier recruits are more highly thought of than the top-tier guys from that class
2. We are more athletic and more physical at guard
3. We seem to have more polished skill players offensively (Kennard comparable to Scheyer, Allen more ready than Nelson, Ingram more gifted offensively than Henderson)
4. We have more depth and more quality depth inside (Obi and Jeter are ahead of Thomas and an injured Zoubek)
5. Coach K seems to have learned from that season
6. The landscape of college bball is much different now, as the one-and-done era has really run roughshod over the elite teams' rosters

Still, that season should definitely give pause for the expectations this season.

[whereinthehellami]

I'm seeing a lot of talk about how Duke's defense should be something for this team with 7 freshman to hang their collective hat on. Duke's defense requires a lot of communication and tends to fare better with guys who have played together enough to establish chemistry. This could take a while to develop this year and for coach to find the right roster mix.

IMO Duke has some guys that look like good individual defenders. But how will all of that come together for a good team defense? and how long will it take to come together? I think patience will be needed while the team figures this out, there could be a few easy buckets on communication breakdowns.

[Kedsy]

I'm seeing a lot of talk about how Duke's defense should be something for this team with 7 freshman to hang their collective hat on. Duke's defense requires a lot of communication and tends to fare better with guys who have played together enough to establish chemistry. This could take a while to develop this year and for coach to find the right roster mix.

IMO Duke has some guys that look like good individual defenders. But how will all of that come together for a good team defense? and how long will it take to come together? I think patience will be needed while the team figures this out, there could be a few easy buckets on communication breakdowns.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the list of Duke freshmen in the Coach K era who "got it" immediately on defense is fairly long, including Amaker, Hurley, G Hill, Battier, Duhon, and (just last season) Winslow. It's not unreasonable to assume that a player like Derryck Thornton, who comes in with a reputation as a defensive ball hawk, could be cut from the same defensive cloth as these other successful Duke freshmen. And we're not really hanging anything on seven freshmen, since probably only three or four of them will actually be in the rotation. Also, since the four returning players are all fairly strong defenders, that should help the newcomers hit the ground running.

It may very well be that it may take some time for the team to gel, both offensively and defensively. But I see no reason for your seeming negativity.

[jipops]

Scenario 12


Under Scenario 12, Duke loses 12 games and the season unfolds as follows:




Who is coaching this team? Roy?

[whereinthehellami]

Who is coaching this team? Roy?

If Roy was coaching this team, we would be talking about a whole other scenario! With that said I think Roy is going to look pretty smart this year, I don't see as much talk about timeouts.

Coaching can only take you so far. At some point the players have to execute and you have to win with what you have. Remember VT took Duke to OT last year. If a handful of those kind of games go down to the wire with a young team, who knows which way they fall. Coach K will certainly help but IMO having a young team (execution) factors into the equation more than coaching.

Some of these responses are pretty funny, calling me a pessimist, saying the OP was odd. I guess I am more of a bigger picture guy. The minutes per game minutiae doesn't really interest me but talking about how the season will play is more intriguing to me. And as I said before I don't think Duke will lose 12 games this year but could see it as a possible scenario....scenario 12 in fact. After the season is over I will unveil scenario 13. I don't think this board is ready for it right now.

[Indoor66]

After the season is over I will unveil scenario 13. I don't think this board is ready for it right now.

Is scenario 13 the one that involves soylent green?

[Kedsy]

If Roy was coaching this team, we would be talking about a whole other scenario! With that said I think Roy is going to look pretty smart this year, I don't see as much talk about timeouts.

Coaching can only take you so far. At some point the players have to execute and you have to win with what you have. Remember VT took Duke to OT last year. If a handful of those kind of games go down to the wire with a young team, who knows which way they fall. Coach K will certainly help but IMO having a young team (execution) factors into the equation more than coaching.

Some of these responses are pretty funny, calling me a pessimist, saying the OP was odd. I guess I am more of a bigger picture guy. The minutes per game minutiae doesn't really interest me but talking about how the season will play is more intriguing to me. And as I said before I don't think Duke will lose 12 games this year but could see it as a possible scenario...scenario 12 in fact. After the season is over I will unveil scenario 13. I don't think this board is ready for it right now.

What was scenario 3?

[OldPhiKap]

Is scenario 13 the one that involves soylent green?

"To serve mankind"

Same, but different.

[jipops]

If Roy was coaching this team, we would be talking about a whole other scenario! With that said I think Roy is going to look pretty smart this year, I don't see as much talk about timeouts.

Coaching can only take you so far. At some point the players have to execute and you have to win with what you have. Remember VT took Duke to OT last year. If a handful of those kind of games go down to the wire with a young team, who knows which way they fall. Coach K will certainly help but IMO having a young team (execution) factors into the equation more than coaching.


Some of these responses are pretty funny, calling me a pessimist, saying the OP was odd. I guess I am more of a bigger picture guy. The minutes per game minutiae doesn't really interest me but talking about how the season will play is more intriguing to me. And as I said before I don't think Duke will lose 12 games this year but could see it as a possible scenario...scenario 12 in fact. After the season is over I will unveil scenario 13. I don't think this board is ready for it right now.

Agree with you on this. I think coaching can be over-valued in many discussions regarding team performance. And an experienced, deep, and balanced team like uNC's will certainly make Roy look pretty smart.

I think the degree of variance is very wide this season compared to most seasons. The prospective talent figures to be quite high but we don't know much about what the true roles will be. At least before last season we could make the sure bet that Okafor was going to be a dominating low post presence. And we heard the same overture a few times from K before the season started that those freshmen were not normal freshmen. We haven't really heard that from him this time around. My guess is that we will be up and down, losing a few it is perceived we shouldn't and taking a few big ones. Some games, especially early on, we'll look sloppy and under prepared. Other games Ingram might look like he's ready for the league right now. Tyus had the benefit of Quinn in the back court. Derryck has no such luxury. He will likely have the biggest growing pains as he is also coming into the season the least prepared.

It should be a fun ride, but I may need an extra beer or two during some games.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If Roy was coaching this team, we would be talking about a whole other scenario! With that said I think Roy is going to look pretty smart this year, I don't see as much talk about timeouts.

Coaching can only take you so far. At some point the players have to execute and you have to win with what you have. Remember VT took Duke to OT last year. If a handful of those kind of games go down to the wire with a young team, who knows which way they fall. Coach K will certainly help but IMO having a young team (execution) factors into the equation more than coaching.

Some of these responses are pretty funny, calling me a pessimist, saying the OP was odd. I guess I am more of a bigger picture guy. The minutes per game minutiae doesn't really interest me but talking about how the season will play is more intriguing to me. And as I said before I don't think Duke will lose 12 games this year but could see it as a possible scenario...scenario 12 in fact. After the season is over I will unveil scenario 13. I don't think this board is ready for it right now.

Well, I will just be sitting over here waiting. Let me know when you unveil #13. In the meantime, I will be looking out for those nuns.

[devildeac]

Well, I will just be sitting over here waiting. Let me know when you unveil #13. In the meantime, I will be looking out for those nuns.

"Nuns run bald through Vatican halls, pregnant, pleadin' immaculate conception"

[eddiehaskell]

Ok, Ok...maybe 9 or 10 losses doesn't sound too unrealistic. If so, hopefully we are playing our best toward the end...going in as a dangerous 4-5 seed.

[superdave]

Ok, Ok...maybe 9 or 10 losses doesn't sound too unrealistic. If so, hopefully we are playing our best toward the end...going in as a dangerous 4-5 seed.

Find somebody to hug you today, my friend.

[johnb]

I'm okay with 12 losses between now and K's retirement in 2025.