FB Duke @ Virginia Tech, 3:30 PM 10/24/15, ESPNU

[loran16]

After a weekend where bball momentarily took over the spotlight, football is back this weekend. Like the 2013 season, Duke comes into the game in Blackburg needing just one win to become bowl eligible.

Duke somehow opened as 6 point underdogs in vegas, but that line is already down to 2.5. I expect it to drop lower honestly, that's a bonkers line given that many of the statistical measures like Duke to win outright.

Some other news today, VT's original starting QB on the year, Michael Brewer, will be the starter again this week. He'd injured himself against OSU in the opener, but came back midway through the loss last week to Miami to relieve Brandon Motley, who'd been the QB in his place. Motley wasn't a good passer but was a strong runner, which was a large part of VT's offense. Brewer is strictly a passer, and he wasn't very good last year. He'll honestly be a better matchup for a Duke team who has issues with QB Runs (but does well against conventional runs), although Motley will still see time in certain packages. The team will need to recognize when Motley is in.

Advanced Stat Profile on VT:
Overall: #54 FPlus, #56 S&P+, #54 FEI, #45 Sagarin Predictor

Basically every advanced metric seems to agree That VTech is a slightly above average to average team, around 45-55. For Comparison, two of those metrics have Duke in the top 25, while FEI has Duke at #36 and Sagarin has Duke at #29.

Offense:
Passing: #47 in S&P+
Rushing: #95 in S&P+.

These #s aren't totally reflective of the VT we'll face this week, as mentioned above, with Brewer in instead of Motley. That said, while VT is meh as usual on offense, they're not truly terrible as they have been in prior years (their #s are actually better than Duke this year).

Passing wise, VT's primary receiver is Isaiah Ford, a sophomore, who gets the most targets by far (57 on the year, compared to 36 for the #2) and has half of their passing TDs. Their #2 wide receiver is sophomore Cam Phillips who gets 36 targets, and after that, they use their tight ends a bunch. So Cash and the LBs may be covering linebackers a bunch this game.

Rushing wise, VT's leading rusher in attempts was Brenden Motley, but as noted before, he won't be starting this week. Other than that, they rely on freshman Travon McMillian, who's averaging 7.1 yards per carry, which is pretty terrific. He started this season getting few carries, but got 16 vs Miami, so expect him to get a lot this game. He's the real threat. The next few backs are less impressive.

Strategy wise, they basically run as much as an average team on running downs and pass on passing downs just a bit more than average.

Defense:
Passing: #44 S&P+
Rushing: #33 S&P+

VT is traditionally a great D bad O team, but while the O is closer to average than normal, the D is not particularly special this year - this isn't BC or Northwestern here, so the Duke offense should be able to get a little more done.

They're above average in both run and pass D, but not elite at either thing (Duke has the better D!). Their best pass D aspect has been getting sacks, which is the thing Duke has avoided this year, but even there the sack rate is 23rd. Their star cornerback (the younger Fuller brother) is out for the year, which may be the reason for this.

In short, I like Duke's chances here. Duke should be able to get some points here against this team, and the D should be able to hold off VT.

[OldPhiKap]

Excellent breakdown Loran.

Need to handle the pass rush/blitz that VT thrives on, and stay out of third and long which just invited the pressure. Sirk needs to work through his progressions and not take the first dump pass available.

Great challenge, will be interesting to see how we come off the bye week.

[Bob Green]

Starting with defense because Duke's identity to date this season is a defensive team, we must contain Travon McMillan to force Virginia Tech into obvious passing situations. When we know they are going to pass it will be time to mix up the approach to keep Brewer off balance. We need to utilize various blitz packages while mixing in some double coverage on his primary target Ford. Our secondary must play up to its reputation in this game as the Hokies can both run and pass. We've seen improved play with the front six this season so we will need that to continue.

On offense, balance is our key to success. With Jela Duncan back and looking strong, there are three backs available to establish the running game. Virginia Tech's defensive line is strong with Luther Maddy and Dadi Nicholas but I do not believe their secondary is as strong as in past seasons, cornerback Fuller was recently lost for the season, so Sirk needs to successfully throw the ball downfield, which will open up the run game. It is paramount we achieve success running and passing because if we don't Bud Foster will make defensive adjustments to shutdown the one dimension where we are successful.

Typically, Duke has an advantage on special teams, but I do not know much about Virginia Tech's special teams. Nothing jumped out at me during the VT - Miami game on Saturday. This is a game we should win because Duke is better than Virginia Tech but it will be a tough, close game. We have to go prove we are better on the field.

Prediction (useless but fun): Duke 20, Virginia Tech 16

[OldPhiKap]

How is. Their defense against the bubble screen?

Another key -- no turnovers. Team that makes the fewest mistakes wins.

[Bob Green]

Here is an interesting article on VT's offense and running back Travon McMillian:

http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/football/article_12525ead-6750-56eb-8b24-3ae2b5197e57.html


McMillian has seen his number of carries go up each of the past four games. In the last two games, he’s run for 195 yards on 27 carries.


Tech is 3-0 when it rushes for 200 yards or more in a game and 0-4 when it does not.

[BigWayne]

Typically, Duke has an advantage on special teams, but I do not know much about Virginia Tech's special teams.

Historically, special teams, especially punt blocking, was a strong suit at VT. However, the last few years this has not been the case.

[OldPhiKap]

Big key is to make good progress on first down. Third and long is inviting a bad blitz with a QB who needs to improve on checking down. Give me second and six, third and two all day long.

[devildeac]

From the News and Observer this am about how the D is preparing for the Turkeys:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article40521441.html

[TKG]

Sirk needs to work through his progressions and not take the first dump pass available.

This, to me, will be absolutely critical on Saturday.

[budwom]

Big key is to make good progress on first down. Third and long is inviting a bad blitz with a QB who needs to improve on checking down. Give me second and six, third and two all day long.

Yes, and the understanding that passes on first down are allowed. At times this year it looks like we didn't know that. Playing run, run, third and long on
Va. Tech is not a great strategy. Cut seems to recognize our offense needs a turbo charge......should be interesting to see what they come up with.

[peloton]

Cut seems to recognize our offense needs a turbo charge...

While I understand that a twin-scroll turbocharger is the bomb, I hear that the Alls turbocharger is pretty effective also! :rolleyes:

[uh_no]

Yes, and the understanding that passes on first down are allowed. At times this year it looks like we didn't know that. Playing run, run, third and long on
Va. Tech is not a great strategy. Cut seems to recognize our offense needs a turbo charge......should be interesting to see what they come up with.

fingers crossed for HBC!

[budwom]

fingers crossed for HBC!

Hudson's Bay Company???

[AustinDevil]

Hudson's Bay Company???

Head Ball Coach???

[budwom]

ah, I like that guy. Got Hudson's Bay on my mind what with the young and energetic Mr. Justin Trudeau now running the show just to the north of us.
An interesting change for the maple leaf people (of whom I am quite fond).

[Bob Green]

A couple of more Virginia Tech articles courtesy of the Richmond Times-Dispatch:

http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/football/article_3ba0111e-a0cc-5a21-9b4b-686e1fde58d9.html


Virginia Tech expects to have a better idea today if senior defensive tackle Corey Marshall will play Saturday against Duke. Marshall, the former Dinwiddie High School standout, has missed the past two games after straining his hamstring against Pittsburgh on Oct. 3.

http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/football/article_4d9d1f6c-8062-5d66-a016-3d961a3c6211.html


The all-conference defensive end doesn’t have a single sack this year. His last quarterback sack came on Nov. 28 against Virginia. Dating back to last year’s Military Bowl, Nicolas has now gone eight straight games without a sack, the longest such stretch of his college career.

[Olympic Fan]

It's interesting to see the continuing perception that Virginia Tech has a great defense, when in fact, Duke is significantly better than the Hokies in almost every important category:

Total defense: Duke (fourth in the nation) -- 252.8 yards/VPI (61st nationally) -- 348.9 yards
Scoring defense: Duke (second nationally) -- 9.3 ppg; VPI (48th nationally) -- 23.4 ppg
Passing defense: Duke (second nationally) -- 131.2 yards/VPI (17th nationally) -- 171.3 (Note: Duke is also No. 2 in the nation and No. 1 in the ACC in pass efficiency defense; VPI ranks 7th in the ACC)
Rushing defense: Duke (29th nationally) -- 121.7 yards; VPI (83rd nationally) -- 177.6 yards

Now it's true that those numbers can be skewed by the schedule -- especially Duke's high rank in pass defense (Duke has not played a good passing team yet). But Duke's superior rank as a run defense should be significant -- Duke has generally played better running teams. Virginia Tech did open with Ohio State, but that's the only ranked team they've played (well, they lost to Pitt before they were ranked).

The fact is that Virginia Tech is pretty good against the pass -- very good cover corners and they play such good man-to-man defense that they can blitz a lot (which is why they are tied for third in the ACC in sacks ... while we are tied for 11th).

But Tech is very mediocre against the run -- and have had special problems with running quarterbacks. This is a long term problem in Blacksburg ... I think it has to do with playing almost 100 percent man-to-man coverage in the secondary -- when a QB breaks contain, he can go a long way.

The point is -- while Tech is very solid on defense, this is not a scary defense. They are not nearly as good defensively as Boston College or Northwestern ... statistically they have been slightly better than Georgia Tech defensively (and look at who Georgia Tech has played -- two top 10 teams and four teams currently in the top 25 ... and that doesn't count the best offense in the ACC at the moment, unranked UNC).

Tech used to be so good in special teams that they called it "Beamer Ball." That hasn't been true for a long time. Going into this game, Duke is ahead of the Hokies in almost every special team category -- net punting, kickoff returns, punt returns, field goals made, field goal pct. ... Tech does have slightly better numbers when it comes to net kickoff coverage.

I think the one unknown is VPI's offensive potential. The loss of Brewer in the Ohio State game was a big blow. The coaches can say what a great job Motley has done in relief, but that's all coach speak. It was a BIG dropoff. With Brewer back, they can take advantage of their two great receivers -- Ford on the outside and Hodges at TE. The kid McMillian really seems to be blossoming at TB.

So while I think most people tend to overrate their defense (which is good, not great) and their special teams (which are mediocre, not great), I do think most of us tend to underrate their offense ...

I like Duke's chances Saturday, but I think it's a tough, competitive game that could be flipped by turnovers. The last two Duke-Tech games have come down to Ross Martin's field goal kicking -- he hit 2-of-2 kicks from over 50 yards (while their guy was 1-of-3) in a 13-10 win two years ago. Martin missed the only two field goals he missed all last season in a 17-16 loss to VPI in Durham (their guy hit 1-of-1).

[Bob Green]

So while I think most people tend to overrate their defense (which is good, not great) and their special teams (which are mediocre, not great), I do think most of us tend to underrate their offense ...

An article at Pilot Online (Norfolk paper) yesterday stated Virginia Tech is 3-0 when they rush for more than 200 yards and 0-4 when they do not. Of course, passing quarterback Brewer has been sidelined so the Hokies offense has been more dependent on the run. Regardless, I am optimistic Duke's defense will contain the Virginia Tech running game and force obvious passing situations.

[nyesq83]

Let's Go Duke!

Time to make more history. The future is unwritten and Duke Football is baaaa-aaack!

From Resurrection to Insurrection. It is time for the offense to fire on all cylinders.

Duke is the better team. May this weekend prove that we have the better program!

[wilson]

Three of four ESPN analysts are picking our boys. All expect a low-scoring affair:
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/87149/acc-week-8-game-picks-does-dukes-win-streak-end-in-blacksburg

[Bob Green]

5604

[Tom B.]

Three of four ESPN analysts are picking our boys. All expect a low-scoring affair:
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/87149/acc-week-8-game-picks-does-dukes-win-streak-end-in-blacksburg

Per ESPN, Duke DE Kyler Brown is out with a knee injury and won't play on Saturday.

[nyesq83]

Three of four ESPN analysts are picking our boys. All expect a low-scoring affair:
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/87149/acc-week-8-game-picks-does-dukes-win-streak-end-in-blacksburg

David Hale, who picks VT, is the worst guesser of the four analysts so far this season. Hope he holds true to form.

[loran16]

The Key Play is an excellent VaTech blog, and they preview each opponent of VT with Film. Here's their analysis of Duke:

http://www.thekeyplay.com/virginia-tech-football/2015/10/10688/blue-devils-went-down-blacksburg-virginia-tech-vs-duke-preview

Well worth a read.

[Scorp4me]

The Key Play is an excellent VaTech blog, and they preview each opponent of VT with Film. Here's their analysis of Duke:

http://www.thekeyplay.com/virginia-tech-football/2015/10/10688/blue-devils-went-down-blacksburg-virginia-tech-vs-duke-preview

Well worth a read.

Good article and I learned quite a lot. Think maybe we could forward this to the coaches calling the plays? :)

[jimsumner]

The Key Play is an excellent VaTech blog, and they preview each opponent of VT with Film. Here's their analysis of Duke:

http://www.thekeyplay.com/virginia-tech-football/2015/10/10688/blue-devils-went-down-blacksburg-virginia-tech-vs-duke-preview

Well worth a read.

Some good stuff. The biggest omission, IMO, is no mention of Duke's special teams. If this turns out to be a close, low-scoring game, then Martin, Monday, Edwards and Smith could be crucial.

[Bob Green]

Well worth a read.

Thanks for the link. The video clips and commentary were enjoyable.

[BigWayne]

Some good stuff. The biggest omission, IMO, is no mention of Duke's special teams. If this turns out to be a close, low-scoring game, then Martin, Monday, Edwards and Smith could be crucial.
Here's an article about special teams (kickoff) for you. (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article41257506.html)

[jimsumner]

Here's an article about special teams (kickoff) for you. (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article41257506.html)

I wish Duke had gone for the touchback at the beginning of the second half against Northwestern. And Duke's last kickoff in the Sun Bowl. Your kick unit has to make it work. Duke's usually does. But the misses do stick out.

[Bob Green]

But the misses do stick out.

It seems to be a High Risk - High Reward strategy. The misses Jim points out were painful.

[budwom]

yup, last year we had some posts about what a great strategy we had in not going for touchbacks...we felt we could consistently
pin our opponents deep in their own territory....I was dubious about the risk/reward ratio then, and still am.
If you can boot the he11 out of the ball, do it. Quite a few very good teams do this for a reason.

[killerleft]

Whoa! Big game for Duke. I'm headed to Lexington for the Barbeque Festival for the first time since Sherriff Hege had machine gun nests on top of buildings after 9-11. After a visit to Speedy's (first time) and then the festival itself, we're headed back home to watch Duke whup up on VT. If the Blue Devils can get the offense going, I'm Alls-in on a 31-13 score. If not, we can Cash in on another big day from the defense and Mr. Martin.

Go Barbeque, and Go Duke!!

Turkey BBQ is good, too.

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[riverside6]

Live stats for Duke/Virginia Tech...
(http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-at-virginia-tech-football-live-stats-10242015)
http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-at-virginia-tech-football-live-stats-10242015

[duke09hms]

Offense looking much better but VT able to move the ball on offense pretty easily.

[duke09hms]

Wtf is going on. Martin just missed a 29 yd. FG. Still up 14-10 at half.

[jwillfan]

Someone at VT has a Ross Martin voodoo doll

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Duke's line play on both offense and defense are key factors in this game. Five years ago this possibility would have been laughed out of the room!

The VT QB is trying to get our D line to reveal our scheme, but being both large and clever fellows, our players disguise the scheme. Gotta love it!

[75Crazie]

I am seeing signs that both of Tech's lines (O & D) are starting to dominate. I hope Duke proves me wrong.

[duke09hms]

Yea VT able to run at will on our D-line. Unlike our previous crap opponents we can't sell out against the run.
And no pressure on their QB when he drops back

[uh_no]

Inability to sustain second half drives is becoming increasingly frustrating

[PSurprise]

I still do not understand why they dont use more time to run the clock down with the ball in fg distance. Mind boggling

[InSpades]

The time management this entire 4th quarter has been baffling. VT in no hurry while down 8 (possibly 2 scores, turned out to be 1). Duke always in a hurry to snap the ball when they are up 8 or tied.

Now we give them the ball back w/ a minute left... as a Giants fan I recognize and appreciate this time management.

[Tommac]

My ESPNU has gone black and I can't see the end.

[CDu]

My ESPNU has gone black and I can't see the end.

You haven't missed much good. (Yet)

[75Crazie]

Horrible, horrible, horrible, incredibly horrible play-calling.

[CDu]

Just AWFUL playcalling inside the 5 there. I can't imagine what Montgomery is thinking.

[InSpades]

Those play calls from the 5... you take the ball out of Sirks hands for 2 of your 3 chances. Don't get it.

[77devil]

Terrible play calling in the 3rd OT.

[6th Man]

Love Duke and love Cutcliffe, but 1st and goal in 3rd OT and take it out of Sirk and Powell's hands is the worst decision I've seen in many many years.

[JasonEvans]

4OTs... This is not making me any younger.

I am sure there is a reason VT isn't running McMillen and Rodgers on every play, I just don't know what it is.

[75Crazie]

4OTs... This is not making me any younger.

I am sure there is a reason VT isn't running McMillen and Rodgers on every play, I just don't know what it is.
Agreed. As bad as Duke's play-calling has been, Tech's hasn't been much better ... until this 4th OT, where they're returning to their 4Q strategy.

[JasonEvans]

You have to go for 2 in the 4th OT, right?

[JasonEvans]

Boom! That was quick. Now....

Convert this!!!!!!!!

[CDu]

We might back our way out with awin here!

[75Crazie]

I have to say, for anybody who doesn't have a rooting interest, this is one heck of a game.

[JasonEvans]

Boom! That was quick. Now....

Convert this!!!!!!!!

Yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!

[CDu]

HUGE credit to Sirk for bailing Montgomery out. Thank goodness!!!

[75Crazie]

Holy cow. This game was handed to us. Tech got back in the game with McMillan ... and then pretty much forgot about him in the OTs. That made up for our downright abysmal play-calling in the 3rd OT. What a game!

[dukelifer]

HUGE credit to Sirk for bailing Montgomery out. Thank goodness!!!

Wow- heck of a game. The boys are playing well.