2015 Bowl speculation

[Olympic Fan]

Well, we're halfway through the (regular) season. I know that the last six games will impact our bowl destination immensely, but if outsiders are starting to think about it, so should we.

When the season opened, ESPN's bowl projections had us in the Independence Bowl -- pretty close to bottom of the barrel.

Going into last week, ESPN had upgraded us into the Pinstripe Bowl. It's new, but it's pretty cool -- New York City ... Yankee Stadium. The bowl likes traditional names -- last year was BC vs. Penn State.

As of this morning, CBS Sports came out with their projections. They also had Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl -- vs. Nebraska:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

I'd love that -- a replay of the 1955 Orange Bowl (we won 34-7).

Of course, if we win the division, it could be a lot better than that.

A couple of points to consider:

(1) For the last three ACC seasons (the three seasons we've gone to bowls), the selection process was a little screwy. In 2012, two bowl eligible teams (UNC and Miami) were on probation and unable to go. In each of the last two years, FSU qualified for the national championship game/playoff and that opened up another ACC bowl spot.

Keep that in mind as the season plays out -- UNC's punishment from the NCAA is not likely to come in time for this year, but one of Clemson or FSU could qualify for the playoffs, which would open up another ACC spot (Jerry Palm of CBS has Clemson in the playoff as one today).

(2) The ACC champion will play in either the Peach Bowl (probably) or the Fiesta this year ... the Orange is hosting a playoff semifinal.

(3) The ACC Bowl Lineup (in order of selection):

-- The Peach or the Fiesta. The ACC champion gets this automatically, unless the champion is in the playoff. In that case, the CFP Selection Committee chooses the next most attractive ACC team.

-- Citrus Bowl -- this only applies in years when the ACC plays a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl. That won't happen this year, so the Citrus is out for the ACC.

-- The Russell Athletic Bowl -- my guess is that if we win the Coastal Division and lose in the title game, this is where we end up if the ACC champ makes the playoffs (that would be Clemson or FSU ... the other one would get the Peach/Fiesta ... if the ACC champ doesn't get the playoffs, then Clemson and FSU will split the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell)

The Tier One Bowls (all have equal selection status -- they get together in a room and divvy up the teams they want):

-- Belk, Sun, Pinstripes and Music City or Taxslayer (we get one or the other, not both)

Tier Two Bowls (again, equal status)

-- Military Bowl, Independence Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl

The dregs:

-- St. Petersburg Bowl (if not filled by Conference USA or AAC)

-- The Birmingham Bowl (if not filled by the SEC or AAC)

That's nine certain bowl spots ... with two more likely (the St. Pete and Birmingham Bowls are usually scrambling for at least one team). The ACC has no failed to put a bowl eligible team in a bowl in more than a decade.

I'd be disappointed if we didn't at least earn a Tier One Bowl -- I obviously lust after the ACC spot in the Peach or Fiesta (both are considered top six bowls this season).

I also think it's neat that after 18 years of losing seasons, we've reached the point where the big question is not: "Can we get to a bowl?" But "Where will we go bowling?"

[devildeac]

Still have a minuscule chance here:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36514-Duke-a-Trendy-Playoff-Sleeper

;)

[Bob Green]

Well, we're halfway through the (regular) season. I know that the last six games will impact our bowl destination immensely, but if outsiders are starting to think about it, so should we.

The Bye Week is upon us so no better time to start the bowl game speculation.

Lots of football left to play but I see us as the #3 team in the ACC pecking order at this point behind Clemson and FSU, which means we should be playing in a Tier 1 bowl game or better. The Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando on December 29 seems to me to be the objective to set our eyes upon. Of course, I would be elated if we did better.

Notre Dame figures into the equation as well.

[freshmanjs]

Well, we're halfway through the (regular) season. I know that the last six games will impact our bowl destination immensely, but if outsiders are starting to think about it, so should we.

When the season opened, ESPN's bowl projections had us in the Independence Bowl -- pretty close to bottom of the barrel.

Going into last week, ESPN had upgraded us into the Pinstripe Bowl. It's new, but it's pretty cool -- New York City ... Yankee Stadium. The bowl likes traditional names -- last year was BC vs. Penn State.

As of this morning, CBS Sports came out with their projections. They also had Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl -- vs. Nebraska:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

I'd love that -- a replay of the 1955 Orange Bowl (we won 34-7).

Of course, if we win the division, it could be a lot better than that.

A couple of points to consider:

(1) For the last three ACC seasons (the three seasons we've gone to bowls), the selection process was a little screwy. In 2012, two bowl eligible teams (UNC and Miami) were on probation and unable to go. In each of the last two years, FSU qualified for the national championship game/playoff and that opened up another ACC bowl spot.

Keep that in mind as the season plays out -- UNC's punishment from the NCAA is not likely to come in time for this year, but one of Clemson or FSU could qualify for the playoffs, which would open up another ACC spot (Jerry Palm of CBS has Clemson in the playoff as one today).

(2) The ACC champion will play in either the Peach Bowl (probably) or the Fiesta this year ... the Orange is hosting a playoff semifinal.

(3) The ACC Bowl Lineup (in order of selection):

-- The Peach or the Fiesta. The ACC champion gets this automatically, unless the champion is in the playoff. In that case, the CFP Selection Committee chooses the next most attractive ACC team.

-- Citrus Bowl -- this only applies in years when the ACC plays a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl. That won't happen this year, so the Citrus is out for the ACC.

-- The Russell Athletic Bowl -- my guess is that if we win the Coastal Division and lose in the title game, this is where we end up if the ACC champ makes the playoffs (that would be Clemson or FSU ... the other one would get the Peach/Fiesta ... if the ACC champ doesn't get the playoffs, then Clemson and FSU will split the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell)

The Tier One Bowls (all have equal selection status -- they get together in a room and divvy up the teams they want):

-- Belk, Sun, Pinstripes and Music City or Taxslayer (we get one or the other, not both)

Tier Two Bowls (again, equal status)

-- Military Bowl, Independence Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl

The dregs:

-- St. Petersburg Bowl (if not filled by Conference USA or AAC)

-- The Birmingham Bowl (if not filled by the SEC or AAC)

That's nine certain bowl spots ... with two more likely (the St. Pete and Birmingham Bowls are usually scrambling for at least one team). The ACC has no failed to put a bowl eligible team in a bowl in more than a decade.

I'd be disappointed if we didn't at least earn a Tier One Bowl -- I obviously lust after the ACC spot in the Peach or Fiesta (both are considered top six bowls this season).

I also think it's neat that after 18 years of losing seasons, we've reached the point where the big question is not: "Can we get to a bowl?" But "Where will we go bowling?"


i think the playoff speculation thread is more interesting ;)

[loran16]

If winning the ACC doesn't happen (yeah probably not), then Russell or Pinstripe would be ideal for me. Russell is in A. a fun place (Orlando) and B. is on a weekend, which makes it doable for me. And I'm from new york, so Pinstripe would be awesome. Here's hoping.

[brevity]

if the ACC champ doesn't get the playoffs, then Clemson and FSU will split the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell

Nice early summary. So... if Duke keeps winning and wants to avoid that Tier 1 popularity contest, how do they break that 2-team strangehold?

1. Win the ACC championship.
2. Win the Coastal division and face an undefeated Atlantic division opponent in the ACC championship. If Duke wins, see #1. If Duke loses, the opponent is probably in the playoff, making room for Duke and the second-best Atlantic team to take the Peach/Fiesta and the Russell.
3. Is there a third realistic possibility? I don't see Duke getting hand-picked over the second-best Atlantic team even if it has more losses.

It's all premature speculation, seeing as how Pittsburgh and UNC can say the same thing if they keep winning.

[Bob Green]

Russell is in A. a fun place (Orlando) and B. is on a weekend, which makes it doable for me.

The Russell Athletic Bowl is on Tuesday December 29 according to the bowl game schedule at ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13004471/2015-2016-college-football-playoff-schedule-bowl-schedule

[loran16]

The Russell Athletic Bowl is on Tuesday December 29 according to the bowl game schedule at ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13004471/2015-2016-college-football-playoff-schedule-bowl-schedule


You are correct. Bummer - was looking at last year's schedule apparently.

[SCMatt33]

A few other things to keep in mind. Notre Dame can spoil the party here. I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure that unless ND is in one of the Access Bowls (Playoff, Fiesta, or Peach, others not possible due to contracts with the other 4 power 5 conferences), they will take up an ACC bowl slot. With that in mind, it would seem quite possible that Duke does everything right, but ends up in tier 1 due to ND, Clemson And FSU getting two spots in playoff/access, plus the Russell spot. I'm also not sure on this, but I believe it's technically possible that all three of ND, Clemson, and FSU makes the playoff/access bowls as the other 4 power conferences get their slots in the Rose/Sugar bowls, meaning that only ACC and Group of 5 have a guaranteed slot in the Peach/Fiesta bowls. The other two should be true at larges. I'd say it's not very likely that all three get in, but it's technically possible, especially if one of the three makes the playoff.

[loran16]

A few other things to keep in mind. Notre Dame can spoil the party here. I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure that unless ND is in one of the Access Bowls (Playoff, Fiesta, or Peach, others not possible due to contracts with the other 4 power 5 conferences), they will take up an ACC bowl slot. With that in mind, it would seem quite possible that Duke does everything right, but ends up in tier 1 due to ND, Clemson And FSU getting two spots in playoff/access, plus the Russell spot. I'm also not sure on this, but I believe it's technically possible that all three of ND, Clemson, and FSU makes the playoff/access bowls as the other 4 power conferences get their slots in the Rose/Sugar bowls, meaning that only ACC and Group of 5 have a guaranteed slot in the Peach/Fiesta bowls. The other two should be true at larges. I'd say it's not very likely that all three get in, but it's technically possible, especially if one of the three makes the playoff.

I believe that if Clemson makes the playoff, Notre Dame can take the ACC's BCS spot, leaving FSU out of the BCS position (assuming FSU goes 11-1). So it does seem extremely likely Duke winds up in Tier 1.

That said, if Duke wants say pinstripe instead of Sun (again), having Notre Dame in Russell helps.

[SCMatt33]

I believe that if Clemson makes the playoff, Notre Dame can take the ACC's BCS spot, leaving FSU out of the BCS position (assuming FSU goes 11-1). So it does seem extremely likely Duke winds up in Tier 1.

That said, if Duke wants say pinstripe instead of Sun (again), having Notre Dame in Russell helps.

So is there a reason that you couldn't have Clemson in the Playoff, ND in Fiesta and FSU in peach, especially if both have one loss, you're probably down to 2 loss teams from other conferences at that point, or is it just that likely that a 2 loss team gets picked ahead of fsu

[BigWayne]

I believe that if Clemson makes the playoff, Notre Dame can take the ACC's BCS spot, leaving FSU out of the BCS position (assuming FSU goes 11-1).
I didn't go dig up proof, but I am pretty sure this is not the case. ND only gets in the top 6 CFP related bowls on their own. The Russell slot is the highest ACC slot they can take.

[Native]

As a recent NYC transplant, keeping my fingers crossed for the Pinstripe Bowl.

Of course, if we get a more "prestigious" bowl, you won't hear complaints from me.

[Olympic Fan]

I didn't go dig up proof, but I am pretty sure this is not the case. ND only gets in the top 6 CFP related bowls on their own. The Russell slot is the highest ACC slot they can take.

You are correct -- Notre Dame can have no impact on the ACC's top six spot (this year the Peach or the Fiesta). The ACC champ (or the substitute if the ACC champ is in the playoff) can play against Notre Dame in the Peach/Fiesta, but Notre Dame can't take the ACC slot.

Notre Dame CAN take an ACC bowl berth from the Citrus (which doesn't apply this year) down. There is one caveat -- the old "one-win rule" still applies to Notre Dame. If Duke was 9-3 and Notre Dame was 7-5, no ACC bowl could take Notre Dame ahead of us. If we were 9-3 and they are 8-4, then they could -- and would -- be picked ahead of us. That rule used to apply to every ACC bowl selection, but now it ONLY applies to Notre Dame.

BTW: Every year when bowl selection comes around there are fans who worry that because of our small attendance and small fan base, that we will get screwed. That hasn't happened yet -- and Duke had good turnouts in Charlotte and Atlanta (and the Sun Bowl doesn't expect much of a turnout from Eastern teams), plus out TV ratings have been good -- and for most bowls these days, that's more important than attendance.

I'm confident that we'll get the bowl we earn on the field.

[OldPhiKap]

You are correct -- Notre Dame can have no impact on the ACC's top six spot (this year the Peach or the Fiesta). The ACC champ (or the substitute if the ACC champ is in the playoff) can play against Notre Dame in the Peach/Fiesta, but Notre Dame can't take the ACC slot.

Notre Dame CAN take an ACC bowl berth from the Citrus (which doesn't apply this year) down. There is one caveat -- the old "one-win rule" still applies to Notre Dame. If Duke was 9-3 and Notre Dame was 7-5, no ACC bowl could take Notre Dame ahead of us. If we were 9-3 and they are 8-4, then they could -- and would -- be picked ahead of us. That rule used to apply to every ACC bowl selection, but now it ONLY applies to Notre Dame.

BTW: Every year when bowl selection comes around there are fans who worry that because of our small attendance and small fan base, that we will get screwed. That hasn't happened yet -- and Duke had good turnouts in Charlotte and Atlanta (and the Sun Bowl doesn't expect much of a turnout from Eastern teams), plus out TV ratings have been good -- and for most bowls these days, that's more important than attendance.

I'm confident that we'll get the bowl we earn on the field.

There was a pretty sizeable Duke turnout in El Paso. Certainly not as large as our opponent from nearby Arizona, but more than respectable.

But otherwise agree. So far, Duke has been treated fairly and we have shown up for the games. We need to keep up the attendance as best we can, because that is a huge part of the equation.

And of course the obvious -- get to the championship and win, no one can deny you.

[budwom]

the bowl picture now is marginally more clear than it was two months ago. I'd say we need to get to the end of October before
the picture begins to clarify a bit.

[duke blue brewcrew]

The Bye Week is upon us so no better time to start the bowl game speculation.

Lots of football left to play but I see us as the #3 team in the ACC pecking order at this point behind Clemson and FSU, which means we should be playing in a Tier 1 bowl game or better. The Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando on December 29 seems to me to be the objective to set our eyes upon. Of course, I would be elated if we did better.

Notre Dame figures into the equation as well.

With Notre Dame not a full fledged member of the ACC, how does their bowl prospects impact the ACC teams in the hunt for a bowl?

[Bob Green]

With Notre Dame not a full fledged member of the ACC, how does their bowl prospects impact the ACC teams in the hunt for a bowl?

If you click on the ESPN bowl schedule link I posted above, you will see how Notre Dame impacts ACC teams. For example, the Russell Athletic Bowl:


Russell Athletic Bowl: ACC/ND vs. Big 12
Orlando | Orlando Citrus Bowl
5:30 p.m. on ESPN

or the Hyundai Sun Bowl:


Hyundai Sun Bowl: ACC/ND vs. Pac-12
El Paso, Texas | Sun Bowl
2 p.m. on CBS

or the Military Bowl:


Military Bowl presented By Northrop Grumman: ACC/ND vs. American
Annapolis, Maryland | Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
2:30 p.m. on ESPN

The ACC Bowl games are also Notre Dame bowl games.

[throatybeard]

-- Belk, Sun, Pinstripes and Music City or Taxslayer (we get one or the other, not both)


Crud. I was hoping we'd participate in two different bowls. That way I could go to whichever one wasn't in El Paso or Florida.

[CameronBornAndBred]

You are correct -- Notre Dame can have no impact on the ACC's top six spot (this year the Peach or the Fiesta). The ACC champ (or the substitute if the ACC champ is in the playoff) can play against Notre Dame in the Peach/Fiesta, but Notre Dame can't take the ACC slot.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong, but are you sure that you are right? ESPN's ACC blog has ND slotted for the Fiesta in their predictions.

Capital One Orange Bowl (College Football Playoff): Clemson Tigers


Fiesta Bowl (New Year’s Six): Notre Dame Fighting Irish


Russell Athletic Bowl: Florida State Seminoles


TaxSlayer Bowl: Miami Hurricanes


Belk Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels


New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Duke Blue Devils


Hyundai Bowl: Pittsburgh Panthers


Quick Lane Bowl: Louisville Cardinals


Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman: NC State Wolfpack


Camping World Independence Bowl: Virginia Tech Hokies


Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/86698/acc-week-6-bowl-projections-noles-tigers-stay-in-the-playoff-hunt

I would assume under your scenario of ND not being able to take the slot, but still being able to be there against an ACC team, then there should be two teams listed.

[tux]

the bowl picture now is marginally more clear than it was two months ago. I'd say we need to get to the end of October before
the picture begins to clarify a bit.

This was my thought as well. I'm very excited for Duke to be sitting on the cusp of bowl eligibility in mid-October, but I'd like to see Duke get to six wins by Halloween before I start letting myself daydream about bowl destinations.

That said...

I see 1-3 losses on ND's schedule. USC and Stanford will be their toughest games remaining. I see ND finishing 9-3, and more likely to be 10-2 than 8-4. Unfortunately, Duke's first half is much easier than the backside of their schedule, as we all know. But, as pointed out by others, we're ranked higher right now than any of our remaining opponents. To be fair, UNC could make a reasonable case for being ranked just ahead of us at this point, although I take it that voters are slightly more impressed by our loss at home to NW than UNC stinking it up in their opener vs. USC on national TV.

Here are my gut-level probabilities for how Duke finishes:

11-1: 6%
10-2: 15% (^wins coastal)
9-3: 30% (could win coastal, but unlikely)
8-4: 30%
7-5: 15%
6-6: 3%
5-7: 1%

[SCMatt33]

I have no idea if you are right or wrong, but are you sure that you are right? ESPN's ACC blog has ND slotted for the Fiesta in their predictions.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/86698/acc-week-6-bowl-projections-noles-tigers-stay-in-the-playoff-hunt

I would assume under your scenario of ND not being able to take the slot, but still being able to be there against an ACC team, then there should be two teams listed.

So according to the 2015 ACC Football Guide (http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_docs/m-footbl/2015accfbguide.pdf) (See page 20 of the .pdf, listed as page 18 in the guide), Notre Dame only participates from the Citrus Bowl (when we're in it) on down. In ESPN's scenario, Clemson in the playoff counts as the ACC's guaranteed team. The current structure of the Playoff/New Year's 6 is that the champion of each power 5 conference has a guaranteed slot for it champion (plus one guaranteed Group of Five slot). The Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowls have separate contractual obligations to take teams from certain conferences regardless of the playoff status of the champion. So last year, when FSU made the playoff, the Orange Bowl was still obligated to take an ACC team (Georgia Tech). Since the Rose and Sugar Bowls were playoff games and the champs of the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 made the playoff, there was no guarantee of a second team being selected (though each conference still got at least 2 based on merit). This year, if an ACC team makes the Playoff, there is no guarantee that a second team would get picked. That ND was projected to make the Fiesta bowl is merely a coincidence, though it does help in that they wouldn't use an ACC slot.

[Olympic Fan]

I have no idea if you are right or wrong, but are you sure that you are right? ESPN's ACC blog has ND slotted for the Fiesta in their predictions.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/86698/acc-week-6-bowl-projections-noles-tigers-stay-in-the-playoff-hunt

I would assume under your scenario of ND not being able to take the slot, but still being able to be there against an ACC team, then there should be two teams listed.

I'm sure that I am right and ESPN is wrong. Notre Dame might get a spot in the Fiesta Bowl, but it won't be the ACC's spot in the Peach/Fiesta -- whether Clemson makes the playoff or not.

And to clear up the point that confused throatybeard -- the ACC gets one of the Music City or Taxslayer Bowl -- not both.

Always interesting to see if there will be a crunch at the end. As noted, the ACC is guaranteed nine bowl spots -- 10 if Clemson/FSU make the playoffs ... eight if Notre Dame steals one of the spots from Russell on down.

How many bowl-eligible teams will the ACC end up with? Last year, we had 11 (12 if you count Notre Dame) and all got bowl bids.

Going into this week's games:

-- Boston College: The Eagles are 3-3, but need FOUR more wins to qualify for a bowl, since two of those wins came against FCS opponents (Maine and Howard) and you can only count one towards bowl eligibility. They still have at Clemson, Notre Dame, at Louisville, Virginia Tech and NC State ... plus one likely win against Syracuse. Very little chance the Eagles are bowl eligble.

-- Clemson: 5-0 at the moment and a lock to be bowl eligible

-- Duke: 5-1 at the moment and a near lock to be bowl eligible

-- FSU: 5-0 at the moment and a lock to be bowl eligible

-- Georgia Tech: 2-4 at the moment and in real trouble. They have game remaining with Florida State and Georgia. So unless they upset one of those two, they need to win out against Pitt, at Virginia, VPI and at Miami to keep the ACC's second longest bowl streak alive.

-- Louisville: 2-3 and in pretty good shape. They've still got work to do. They probably ho to 2-4 with a loss at FSU, but after that, everything is winnable -- BC, at Wake, Syracuse, Virginia, Pitt and Kentucky. I think they make it easy.

-- Miami: 3-2 and also in pretty good shape. They still have a loss to Clemson coming, but they should win 3-4-5 of their other six remaining games -- VPI, at Duke, Virginia, at UNC, Georgia Tech and at Pitt. None are sure wins, but they should win enough to go bowling.

-- North Carolina: 4-1 and in good shape, despite the fact that like BC, they need to win seven (FCS wins over NC A&T and Delaware). But the seven games left include two they should win -- Wake Forest and Virginia -- and five that are tossups. They'll make it (as much as I hate to say that).

-- NC State: 4-2 Pack fans are panicking, although they should be okay. Like BC and UNC, they elected to play two FCS teams (Eastern Kentucky and Old Dominion) and that means they need to win seven. They have games with Wake Forest, Syracuse and BC that they should be favored in and games with FSU and Clemson that they will be expected to lose. Their safety net is the UNC finale -- they beat the Heels a year ago, but might need to win again to insure a bowl bid.

-- Pitt: 4-1 and in good shape. Tough gamje with Notre Dame ahead, along with a probably win vs. Syracuse. Get that one and they need just one more out of at Ga tech, UNC, at Duke, Louisville and Miami. They'll make it.

-- Syracuse: 3-2, but a longshot to get to six wins. Their best chances are at Virginia and BC at home. Hard to see them making it.

-- Virginia: 1-4 and up the creek. Okay, they should get 'Cuse at home this week, but after that, they have to upset somebody to win. That means they have to upset four of their final six teams to qualify. Maybe one or two, but not four.

-- VPI: 3-3 and still alive. Nothing easy left -- at BC and at Virginia should be wins ... that's five if they get both. That leaves them needing to win one of at Miami, Duke, at Georgia Tech and UNC. They probably make it, but it's not a lock.

-- Wake Forest: 3-3 and a longshot. The Deacs have sure losses to Notre Dame and Clemson remaining. They're underdogs against everybody else at UNC, NC State, Louisville and Duke. They need to win three of those four -- not going to happen

So to sum up:

Almost certainly out: BC, Virginia, Syracuse and Wake.

That leaves 10 potential bowl teams -- and a couple of those (Georgia Tech and NC State) are on the edge

[BigWayne]

I'm sure that I am right and ESPN is wrong. Notre Dame might get a spot in the Fiesta Bowl, but it won't be the ACC's spot in the Peach/Fiesta -- whether Clemson makes the playoff or not.



ESPN is wrong.

The NY6 bowls are controlled by the CFP committee and their contracts with ESPN and the Bowls. So to get the correct information, you go to the CFP website:

Participants in the New Year’s Bowls

Both participants in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls are contracted outside the playoff arrangement (Big Ten and Pac-12 to Rose Bowl; SEC and Big 12 to Sugar Bowl; ACC to Orange Bowl against the highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame). If a conference champion qualifies for the playoff, then the bowl will choose a replacement from that conference. When those bowls host the semifinals and their contracted conference champions do not qualify, then the displaced champion(s) will play in one of the other New Year’s bowls.

[tux]

-- Pitt: 4-1 and in good shape. Tough game with Notre Dame ahead, along with a probably win vs. Syracuse. Get that one and they need just one more out of at Ga tech, UNC, at Duke, Louisville and Miami. They'll make it.

Great rundown. Thanks.

It'll be interesting to look back at this at the end of this month and then as we approach the end of the season.

I highlighted the Pitt section b/c that's one remaining schedule that could easily put them at 5-7 IMO.

[DU82]

ODU moved up to FBS and Conference USA last year, so State only needs six wins.

[SCMatt33]

ESPN is wrong.

The NY6 bowls are controlled by the CFP committee and their contracts with ESPN and the Bowls. So to get the correct information, you go to the CFP website:

Participants in the New Year’s Bowls

Both participants in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls are contracted outside the playoff arrangeI'm a real wanker for saying this.ment (Big Ten and Pac-12 to Rose Bowl; SEC and Big 12 to Sugar Bowl; ACC to Orange Bowl against the highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame). If a conference champion qualifies for the playoff, then the bowl will choose a replacement from that conference. When those bowls host the semifinals and their contracted conference champions do not qualify, then the displaced champion(s) will play in one of the other New Year’s bowls.

Just to be clear, though, it only claims that a contracted bowl (Orange for the ACC) will choose a replacement for a playoff team from the same conference, and that a champion who fails to make the playoff when the contracted bowl is a semifinal host will be guaranteed an NY6 slot. It does not claim that if a champion qualifies for the playoff in a year when the contracted bowl is the host, an unaffiliated bowl will have to take another team from that conference. The ACC does get a bit screwed here because the rotation has the sugar and rose bowls host the same year. That means, when one of the other power conference teams has a a playoff team in that season, 6 of the remaining 8 slots are true at large bids (ACC and Group of Five have auto bids). When it happens to the ACC, only 3 of the 8 spots are available (4 champs plus Go5 have auto bids). Next season, when the Peach and Fiesta host, there will only be 2 true at large spots in the NY6 as all power 5 conferences plus the Go5 slot will have a guarantee for a non playoff team. The possibility that ESPN brought up is absolutely possible.

[hallcity]

Just to be clear, though, it only claims that a contracted bowl (Orange for the ACC) will choose a replacement for a playoff team from the same conference, and that a champion who fails to make the playoff when the contracted bowl is a semifinal host will be guaranteed an NY6 slot. It does not claim that if a champion qualifies for the playoff in a year when the contracted bowl is the host, an unaffiliated bowl will have to take another team from that conference. The ACC does get a bit screwed here because the rotation has the sugar and rose bowls host the same year. That means, when one of the other power conference teams has a a playoff team in that season, 6 of the remaining 8 slots are true at large bids (ACC and Group of Five have auto bids). When it happens to the ACC, only 3 of the 8 spots are available (4 champs plus Go5 have auto bids). Next season, when the Peach and Fiesta host, there will only be 2 true at large spots in the NY6 as all power 5 conferences plus the Go5 slot will have a guarantee for a non playoff team. The possibility that ESPN brought up is absolutely possible.

Am I understanding correctly that if Clemson or FSU makes the playoffs that it's possible that no other ACC team will play in a New Year's Day bowl?

[hallcity]

Just to be clear, though, it only claims that a contracted bowl (Orange for the ACC) will choose a replacement for a playoff team from the same conference, and that a champion who fails to make the playoff when the contracted bowl is a semifinal host will be guaranteed an NY6 slot. It does not claim that if a champion qualifies for the playoff in a year when the contracted bowl is the host, an unaffiliated bowl will have to take another team from that conference. The ACC does get a bit screwed here because the rotation has the sugar and rose bowls host the same year. That means, when one of the other power conference teams has a a playoff team in that season, 6 of the remaining 8 slots are true at large bids (ACC and Group of Five have auto bids). When it happens to the ACC, only 3 of the 8 spots are available (4 champs plus Go5 have auto bids). Next season, when the Peach and Fiesta host, there will only be 2 true at large spots in the NY6 as all power 5 conferences plus the Go5 slot will have a guarantee for a non playoff team. The possibility that ESPN brought up is absolutely possible.

Do I understand correctly that if let's say Clemson goes to the playoff that it's possible that no ACC team will go to the Peach Bowl or any other New Year's Day bowl? If that's accurate, I could see it happening if the Peach Bowl gets to line up an SEC team like Florida versus Notre Dame. The Fiesta Bowl might not be too interested in an FSU team with two losses much less a Duke team with two losses. It would be ridiculous for Duke to go 11-2 and end up in the Pinstripe Bowl but it could happen. Still, Duke's awfully unlikely to win out in the regular season so this is mostly academic.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Don't trust ESPN's research. One of their announcers during the LSU - USC game commented that Mrs. Miles wasn't in Baton Rouge because she was in North Carolina seeing her son play.... her son, the preferred walk on for UNC which had a bye Saturday.

[duke09hms]

Do I understand correctly that if let's say Clemson goes to the playoff that it's possible that no ACC team will go to the Peach Bowl or any other New Year's Day bowl? If that's accurate, I could see it happening if the Peach Bowl gets to line up an SEC team like Florida versus Notre Dame. The Fiesta Bowl might not be too interested in an FSU team with two losses much less a Duke team with two losses. It would be ridiculous for Duke to go 11-2 and end up in the Pinstripe Bowl but it could happen. Still, Duke's awfully unlikely to win out in the regular season so this is mostly academic.

Speaking for the many Duke alumni in the NE, I'd be pretty happy with the Pinstripe Bowl in NYC.
If we don't win the ACC, hopefully our recent entries to the Belk and Sun will keep us from going to those bowls again.

Of course, given we're only at 5 wins, all this bowl talk is still premature.

[SCMatt33]

Do I understand correctly that if let's say Clemson goes to the playoff that it's possible that no ACC team will go to the Peach Bowl or any other New Year's Day bowl? If that's accurate, I could see it happening if the Peach Bowl gets to line up an SEC team like Florida versus Notre Dame. The Fiesta Bowl might not be too interested in an FSU team with two losses much less a Duke team with two losses. It would be ridiculous for Duke to go 11-2 and end up in the Pinstripe Bowl but it could happen. Still, Duke's awfully unlikely to win out in the regular season so this is mostly academic.

Yes, by the way I read it, it is possible that if an ACC team makes the playoff, no other ACC team gets a NY6 game. That being said, the Peach Bowl doesn't get to "line up" whoever it wants. After auto bids are given out, (Rose, Sugar, and one Go5 bid), the last three teams will be the 3 highest ranked teams still available according to the playoff committee. From the committees rules (emphasis mine):


All displaced conference champions and the highest ranked champion from a non-contract conference, as ranked by the committee, will participate in selected other bowl games and will be assigned to those games by the committee. If berths in the selected other bowl games remain available after those teams have been identified, the highest ranked other teams, as ranked by the committee, will fill those berths in rank order.’(Note: A “displaced conference champion” is a champion of a contract conference that does not qualify for the playoff in a year when its contract bowl hosts a semifinal game.)

So if the committee ranks both ND and FSU high enough, it doesn't matter what the Peach and Fiesta bowl would rather line up, those two teams will play on New Years. The thing that makes it plausible for one to be left out is 1) the general consensus on the strength (or lack thereof) of the ACC and 2) only 3 true at large birth being available, making it unlikely that a 2 loss FSU would be in the best 3 available. A 2-loss ND might have a chance depending on when their second loss comes.

[OldPhiKap]

Don't trust ESPN's research. One of their announcers during the LSU - USC game commented that Mrs. Miles wasn't in Baton Rouge because she was in North Carolina seeing her son play.... her son, the preferred walk on for UNC which had a bye Saturday.

Maybe that's what Mrs. Miles wants Mr. Miles to think, and you just busted her.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Maybe that's what Mrs. Miles wants Mr. Miles to think, and you just busted her.
Considering how involved she is in football operations at LSU, I don't know! Now if you'd said she needed to check on their son, I could understand that. I questioned his choice of colleges from the get go.

[Pghdukie]

Haven't done the research (lazy) but is it possible that Duke's football and basketball teams could be playing in NYC at the same time ? That could be quite the experience!

[DU82]

Haven't done the research (lazy) but is it possible that Duke's football and basketball teams could be playing in NYC at the same time ? That could be quite the experience!

Duke-Utah 12/19, Pinstripe Bowl is 12/26.

[BD80]

ESPN is wrong. ...

inconceivable

[OldPhiKap]

inconceivable

You keep using that word . . . .

[Bob Green]

ESPN Week 7 bowl projections have Duke playing in the TaxSlayer Bowl:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/86944/acc-week-7-bowl-projections-clemson-fsu-in-new-years-six-games

CBS Sports still says Pinstripe Bowl:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

[throatybeard]

ESPN Week 7 bowl projections have Duke playing in the TaxSlayer Bowl:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/86944/acc-week-7-bowl-projections-clemson-fsu-in-new-years-six-games

CBS Sports still says Pinstripe Bowl:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Well we were undefeated this week...

[Indoor66]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early for this. Pure mental masturbation.

[budwom]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early for this. Pure mental masturbation.

It really is pure craziness. In three more weeks we might get some clarity. Until then, it's like rolling dice.

[devildeac]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early for this. Pure mental masturbation.

Well...

We have rosterbation, we might as well have bowlsturbation:o

[wilson]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early for this. Pure mental masturbation.


Well...

We have rosterbation, we might as well have bowlsturbation:oWe're totally just giving ourselves a bowl job.

[Olympic Fan]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early for this. Pure mental masturbation.

Not really. We are almost certainly going to a bowl. Certainly a lot has to be decided, but this is reasonable speculation.

There's another thread -- suggesting Duke might be a contender for the national football playoff -- where I made a jerk of myself objecting to what I saw ridiculous speculation.

Allow me to explain -- I LOVE speculation and I'm the most optimistic person on this board. But there has to be a reasonable limit. Just an example, but a couple of other history buffs and I would get together and debate counterfactuals. What happens at Gettysburg if Ewell attacks Culp's Hill that first evening? What happens if Stuart remembers what his job is and acts to shield and scout for Lee's infantry? What happens if Lee listens to Longstreet and attempts to maneuver to Meade's left (between the Union Army and Washington) instead of launching frontal attacks against the Union line? What if Sickles doesn't move his troops into the open where his defeat threatened Little Top? All interesting questions with debatable outcomes ... discussing them illuminated our knowledge of what really happened.

But there was always one guy who would ruin it. What would have happened, he asked, of Lee had had a platoon of Sherman tanks? It's like the old Saturday night Live routine: What would have happened if Spartacus has had a Piper Cub as a scouting plane?

Things would get silly awfully fast. Maybe that's what I reacted so strongly to the silly proposition that Duke was a national title contender, even after the loss to Northwestern.

But speculating about bowl destinations is not ridiculous. Certainly the picture will become clearer as the season wears on and we find out if Duke is going to be 7-5 or 10-2. Right now, we are the third ACC team in the pecking order, but UNC, Miami and even Virginia Tech could easily pass us. Our bowl could fluctuate from the Fiesta (if we win the ACC title game) to maybe the Independence Bowl is we go 1-5 the rest of the way.

Obviously, we could lose out and miss a bowl, but that's an extreme longshot.

So pardon us if we start looking at the bowl picture and how it changes as the season plays out.

[OldPhiKap]

Amazing that we are likely headed to a bowl, and pre-season national title contender Georgia Tech is not. "And we helped."

I am fine with dreaming/discussing about where we may play. Also agree that the next four weeks will be critical to where we are on the pecking order. Not mutually exclusive.

Gotta beat VT. Will be tough, we are a slight dog and hard to strongly disagree with that. If the offense has made progress over the bye week, though, we can by dynamite if everything clicks.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

What a change in culture in such a short time! It was not very long ago that the speculation was about which game(s) Duke could win. Now the expectation that is Duke will go to a bowl.... but which one?????

[brevity]

When it comes to needless DBR speculation, I have learned two things:

1. I have a limit;
2. DBR does not.


It's like the old Saturday night Live routine: What would have happened if Spartacus has had a Piper Cub as a scouting plane?

"If I may shift gears for a moment, gentlemen: Coach Ditka versus a hurricane, who would win?"

"Ditka, Ditka!!"

"Hold on, hold on, hold on. The name of the hurricane is Hurricane Ditka."

[devildeac]

We're totally just giving ourselves a bowl job.

Wilson is on a roll, from Helsinki to bowl jobs and something tells me he's not Finnish(ed) yet. Somebody spork him again because I've been told too many sporks from me to/for him:o.

[budwom]

Can't imagine why someone would ignore Pitt. Saying we're third in the pecking order is definitely arguable. Pitt, unc, Miami and VT are ALL going to be tough games.
We'll actually know something in 2-3 weeks.

[Olympic Fan]

Can't imagine why someone would ignore Pitt. Saying we're third in the pecking order is definitely arguable. Pitt, unc, Miami and VT are ALL going to be tough games.
We'll actually know something in 2-3 weeks.

I should have mentioned Pitt as a contender, right up there with UNC and Miami.

But we ARE third in the pecking order at the moment -- check both polls. That reflects national perception.

Obviously, that could change in the blink of an eye ... which is why we need to keep updating this list.

[budwom]

Sure. But I could see us winning or losing any of the next four games. I don't see us winning more than two of them, but I hope I'm wrong...VT
seems to be a great opportunity, not sure I understand why we're 4 pt underdogs or so. I think unc and Miami will be tougher.

[Avvocato]

Sure. But I could see us winning or losing any of the next four games. I don't see us winning more than two of them, but I hope I'm wrong...VT
seems to be a great opportunity, not sure I understand why we're 4 pt underdogs or so. I think unc and Miami will be tougher.

I agree. With our struggles to score points against Power 5 teams, UNC and Miami are tough match-ups for us at the moment. Not that we can't win those games, but it would really help to beat VT to give us some breathing room.

[Bob Green]

Sure. But I could see us winning or losing any of the next four games. I don't see us winning more than two of them, but I hope I'm wrong...VT
seems to be a great opportunity, not sure I understand why we're 4 pt underdogs or so. I think unc and Miami will be tougher.

Obviously we all desire the team to go 4-0 the next four games, but a 2-2 performance sets us up to finish the regular season at 9-3 (6-2) as long as we finish by beating teams we are suppose to beat (Virginia and Wake Forest). Duke has been very good at beating teams they are suppose to beat the past few seasons. Starting the four game stretch out with a win over VT sure would be nice.

Miami is going to be a tough game as Brad Kaaya is an accurate passer with extreme poise in the pocket. I watched the entire VT - Miami game on Saturday afternoon and my #1 takeaway was how good Kaaya is in the pocket. He doesn't need a lot of time and can really shred an opponent's secondary with his accuracy. Our secondary is a team strength but this is a game where it will be imperative to consistently pressure the quarterback.

[budwom]

Obviously we all desire the team to go 4-0 the next four games, but a 2-2 performance sets us up to finish the regular season at 9-3 (6-2) as long as we finish by beating teams we are suppose to beat (Virginia and Wake Forest). Duke has been very good at beating teams they are suppose to beat the past few seasons. Starting the four game stretch out with a win over VT sure would be nice.

Miami is going to be a tough game as Brad Kaaya is an accurate passer with extreme poise in the pocket. I watched the entire VT - Miami game on Saturday afternoon and my #1 takeaway was how good Kaaya is in the pocket. He doesn't need a lot of time and can really shred an opponent's secondary with his accuracy. Our secondary is a team strength but this is a game where it will be imperative to consistently pressure the quarterback.

I agree 100%. We have good defensive backs, and the DL has played great against the run, but our pass rush vs. good passing teams is definitely TBD. I can see Miami (for reasons you mention) and unc
giving us problems with their passing games....though at least we shouldn't be overconfident vs unc as we were last year.

I'd take 9-3 in an instant, by the way.

p.s. definitely want to see us improve on offense (passing the ball downfield especially) as Cut said we would. Work hard, boys.

[nyesq83]

Wilson is on a roll, from Helsinki to bowl jobs and something tells me he's not Finnish(ed) yet. Somebody spork him again because I've been told too many sporks from me to/for him:o.

Sporktacular?

[-jk]

It's a given I'm not a football guy (and please don't ask about my understanding of my son's baseball efforts; yikes!). It seems to me while we stop the run pretty well, we haven't played any teams yet that have a really solid passing game. How do our next few games look on passing? Are we ready?

-jk

[BigWayne]

It's a given I'm not a football guy (and please don't ask about my understanding of my son's baseball efforts; yikes!). It seems to me while we stop the run pretty well, we haven't played any teams yet that have a really solid passing game. How do our next few games look on passing? Are we ready?

-jk

As budwom mentions above, Miami will challenge our pass defense. By the time all the pumpkins are smashed, we'll know where we stand.

[OldPhiKap]

As budwom mentions above, Miami will challenge our pass defense. By the time all the pumpkins are smashed, we'll know where we stand.

Agreed Miami and the Heels have the two most athletic quarterbacks we are scheduled to play all year. Both teams have explosive play capability.

As mentioned above, I want to win every game. If we finished this stretch 7-3 with no major injuries and an improving team, I would feel good about the stretch run. 8-2 would be a very very good result. 6-4 would be disappointing but not inconceivable. Duke, VT, Miami, UNC and Pitt are all fairly even. And let that sentence sink in for a minute.

LGD!

[Bob Green]

We are 6-1 and bowl eligible with the win over Virginia Tech so speculation can begin in earnest. Will it be the Pinstripe Bowl?

[CameronBornAndBred]

With FSU tanking, we can definitively take them out of the playoff picture, and there is a good chance that after they play Clemson they will have 2 losses. They will still be highly attractive to any bowl committee.

[-bdbd]

With NC at Pitt on Thurs, one of our 2 remaining divisional co-undefeateds will go down (I personally think that Pitt takes care of business at home), and if we can beat a Miami team in turmoil and potentially w/o a head coach on Halloween, then it sets up two weeks of possible division-deciding football in Chapel Hill and then in Durham vs Pitt....

[wilson]

With FSU tanking, we can definitively take them out of the playoff picture, and there is a good chance that after they play Clemson they will have 2 losses. They will still be highly attractive to any bowl committee.This is a very good point. FSU's loss today significantly re-jiggers (technical term) the ACC bowl pecking order. One the one hand, today's win over VA Tech pushes the needle in a positive direction with regard to our team's quality and potential. On the other hand, Florida State is now likely to end up in an upper-end bowl game that we might have otherwise had a shot at, such as the Russell Athletic in Orlando or the Tax Slayer (née Gator) in Jacksonville.

[AustinDevil]

This is a very good point. FSU's loss today significantly re-jiggers (technical term) the ACC bowl pecking order. One the one hand, today's win over VA Tech pushes the needle in a positive direction with regard to our team's quality and potential. On the other hand, Florida State is now likely to end up in an upper-end bowl game that we might have otherwise had a shot at, such as the Russell Athletic in Orlando or the Tax Slayer (née Gator) in Jacksonville.
Yes, Florida State was eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, but who among you was placing high odds on FSU to the playoff prior to the fun in Atlanta? I don't think yesterday really changed the pecking order, but instead just solidified it.

[SCMatt33]

This is a very good point. FSU's loss today significantly re-jiggers (technical term) the ACC bowl pecking order. One the one hand, today's win over VA Tech pushes the needle in a positive direction with regard to our team's quality and potential. On the other hand, Florida State is now likely to end up in an upper-end bowl game that we might have otherwise had a shot at, such as the Russell Athletic in Orlando or the Tax Slayer (née Gator) in Jacksonville.

It won't necessarily change it too much. Having all three of ND, FSU and Clemson in NY6 bowls was always very unlikely, meaning one would be in the normal bowl rotation. ND and Clemson can still make that happen.

[Bob Green]

It won't necessarily change it too much. Having all three of ND, FSU and Clemson in NY6 bowls was always very unlikely, meaning one would be in the normal bowl rotation. ND and Clemson can still make that happen.

CBS Sports agrees with you. They currently have Clemson in the College Football Playoff, ND in a NY6 bowl (Fiesta), FSU in the Russell Athletic Bowl and Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl against Nebraska.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

[uh_no]

CBS Sports agrees with you. They currently have Clemson in the College Football Playoff, ND in a NY6 bowl (Fiesta), FSU in the Russell Athletic Bowl and Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl against Nebraska.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

assuming clemson beats FSU in two weeks...

what does it take for duke to pass them all in the pecking order and be the top non-CFP team?

I think if duke wins out, and wins the ACC championship (I can dream...), then the ACC simply gets passed over for the CFP. Duke would have to get the BCS bid, i'd think.

If duke wins out and loses in the title game, I thin they still stay ahead of FSU...and still have a decent chance for a NY6...being 11-2.

anything less puts us at probably 3 losses...and then i think FSu stays up.

[Olympic Fan]

Just to update the ACC bowl picture:

-- Four ACC teams have become bowl eligible: Clemson, FSU, Duke and Pitt (note: UNC has six wins, but since two of those wins were over FCS teams, they need seven to qualify)

-- No ACC has been eliminated from bowl consideration, but a couple are hanging on by a thread. BC is in the worst shape. The Eagles are 3-5, but like UNC, they played two FCS teams, so they need seven wins. That means they've got to win out against VPI, NC State (at home), Notre Dame in Fenway Park and @Syracuse. That's not going to happen. Georgia Tech kept their hopes alive with that miracle win Saturday. They are 3-5 but only need six. Can they finish 3-1 against @ Virginia, VPI at home, @ Miami and Georgia at home? Wake Forest is 3-5 and needs to finish 3-1 against Louisville and Notre Dame at home, @ Clemson and Duke at home. That's farfetched. Virginia is 2-5 and needs to finish 4-1 against Georgia Tech at home, @ Miami, @ Louisville, Duke and VPI at home. Syracuse is 3-4 and must finish 3-2 against @ FSU, @ Louisville, Clemson at home, @ NC State, BC at home. Virginia Tech is 3-5 and needs to finish 3-1 against @ BC, @ Georgia Tech, UNC at home and @ Virginia.

Of this group, I think Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have the best shot to qualify, but it's going to be tough for any of them.

-- I think Louisville is in good shape, even at 3-4. They've got to finish 3-2, which they should get @ Wake, Syracuse and Virginia at home, @ Pitt and @ Kentucky.

-- On the other hand, Miami is a question mark, even at 4-3. They only need to go 2-3 down the stretch, but what's happening to that team. Is Kaaya out long-term? Is Golden gone? Is they team ready to quit. No killer games left, but no gimmies either -- @ Duke, Virginia at home (okay, almost a gimmie), @ UNC, Georgia Tech at home and @ Pitt. They can do it if Kaaya returns healthy and they keep fighting. But do those arrogant thugs want to keep fighting for a very minor bowl?

This week could produce two more bowl eligible teams -- but it won't be easy for UNC at Pitt and NC State at hoem against Clemson. On the other hand, BC will probably become the first certain non-qualifier at home against Virginia Tech.

As for Duke's status ... I would say that as of this week, Duke is still the ACC's third bowl team (behind Clemson and FSU; just ahead of No. 4 Pitt and No. 5 UNC). Right now that probably puts us at the top of tier one: Belk, Pinstripe, Sun or Music City/Taxslayer. Since we were in the Sun last year and the Belk two years ago, I agree that the Pinstripe or Music City/Taxslayer (the ACC gets one of these, not both) seem the most likely. But we could move up to the Russell Athletic if we win out.

[BigWayne]

If we win out we go to the Peach Bowl. If we win out the regular season and lose to Clemson or FSU in the title game, we are going to one of the tier 1 group.

FSU losing means they are in line to get the Russell slot. If FSU had not lost yesterday, they would have had a chance to get a NY6 slot and get the ACC an extra bowl slot. Only way we get that slot now is if FSU beats Clemson and Clemson stays in the top 11 somehow.

If Notre Dame loses to Stanford and one more, then they suck up an ACC slot, probably the Russell.

[BD80]

... If Notre Dame loses to Stanford and one more, then they suck up an ACC slot, probably the Russell.

Don't make me root for ND football. Please don't

[OldPhiKap]

Don't make me root for ND football. Please don't

This. Gotta be another way to drop ND out of our hair.

[CameronBornAndBred]

ESPN ACC blog projections now have us pegged in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/87330/acc-week-8-bowl-projections-fsu-tumbles-out-of-new-years-six

[royalblue]

They could end up 6-6 if they lose their last 5 games

[BigWayne]

Don't make me root for ND football. Please don't

If we win out regular season and lose to Clemson in the CG, then we block a 9-3 ND from the Russell. However, FSU could still get it ahead of us as the one win rule does not apply inside the conference anymore.

[OldPhiKap]

Duke v. Whisky in Pinstripe? Duke v. Vols in Belk?

So says http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13968797/college-football-bowl-projections-week-8

[Olympic Fan]

Just two weeks ago, Duke was No. 3 in the ACC bowl pecking order ... now, I'm not sure how far down the scale we are.

After Saturday, seven ACC teams have qualified for bowls -- Clemson, FSU and UNC are clearly the league's top three attractions at the moment. Four other teams are 6-3 -- Duke, NC State, Pitt and Miami. How those four rank, I don't know, except to suggest that our reputation can't be too good after the beating we took in Chapel Hill.

Rather than try and parse how the bowls will rank the four 6-3 team teams, allow me to suggest that we're probably playing for a Tier One ACC Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Music City/TaxSlayer) next week against Pitt. Lose that one and we're looking at a Tier Two Bowl: The Military Bowl, The Independence Bowl and The Quick Lane Bowl.

I'm not saying a victory over Pitt guarantees us a Tier One Bowl, but it certainly makes it more likely.

The ACC does have nine guaranteed bowl spots (and two other possible ones). That's going to be all we need this year. As I noted, seven teams are in at the moment. Louisville -- 5-4 at the moment -- is almost certain to qualify (they finish with Virginia at home, at Pitt and at Kentucky ... they're almost certain to get the one win they need). I also think Virginia Tech has a decent chance to qualify. But it's no lock -- they've got to win two of three from at Georgia Tech (on Thursday night) UNC at home (in Frank Beamer's last home game) and at Virginia.

The nation's longest bowl streak is at stake -- 22 straight years.

I don't think anybody else can get bowl eligible. Boston College is already eliminated. Syracuse, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Wake would have to win out to qualify. That's not going to happen.

[Bob Green]

After Saturday, seven ACC teams have qualified for bowls -- Clemson, FSU and UNC are clearly the league's top three attractions at the moment. Four other teams are 6-3 -- Duke, NC State, Pitt and Miami. How those four rank, I don't know, except to suggest that our reputation can't be too good after the beating we took in Chapel Hill.



It is difficult to be objective this morning after yesterday's beat down, but my gut reaction is we need to win out to secure a Tier 1 bowl game. Of the seven teams currently qualified, our pecking order is most likely seventh seeing as Pitt gave Notre Dame a decent game yesterday while NC State scored 28 points on Boston College a team we beat with three FGs. Beating Pitt next week followed by victories over non-bowl game qualifiers Virginia and Wake Forest will move us up to Tier 1 status. Lose one of those three games and say hello to Annapolis and the Military Bowl.

[arnie]

It is difficult to be objective this morning after yesterday's beat down, but my gut reaction is we need to win out to secure a Tier 1 bowl game. Of the seven teams currently qualified, our pecking order is most likely seventh seeing as Pitt gave Notre Dame a decent game yesterday while NC State scored 28 points on Boston College a team we beat with three FGs. Beating Pitt next week followed by victories over non-bowl game qualifiers Virginia and Wake Forest will move us up to Tier 1 status. Lose one of those three games and say hello to Annapolis and the Military Bowl.

I don't really care which bowl, just hope we're matched up against a run-oriented offense. Win the bowl game and the last 2 weeks is distant memory.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Despite the emotional drubbing of the last two weeks, lots of reasons to watch Duke football for the rest of the season. Plenty to play for, and this is a good team. We can still make this one of the best seasons in the last three decades.

Go Duke!

[budwom]

I don't really care which bowl, just hope we're matched up against a run-oriented offense. Win the bowl game and the last 2 weeks is distant memory.

Yup. Our run defense really is greatly improved this year, but all the so-called stats on being a great defensive team were illusory, as we've faced few good passing
teams. NCCU, Tulane, GT, Army and BC are all mediocre to poor passing teams...

I'm still thrilled with where we are as a program...hope we can win at least two more before bowl time.

[Bob Green]

The bowl prognosticators still have us slotted into Tier 1 bowls:

Phil Steele: Belk Bowl vs. Arkansas
CBS Sports: Pinstripe Bowl vs. Minnesota
ESPN (Schlabach): Music City Bowl vs. Arkansas
ESPN (McMurphy): TaxSlayer vs. Texas A&M

Step 1 is to beat Pittsburgh this Saturday.

[OldPhiKap]

The bowl prognosticators still have us slotted into Tier 1 bowls:

Phil Steele: Belk Bowl vs. Arkansas
CBS Sports: Pinstripe Bowl vs. Minnesota
ESPN (Schlabach): Music City Bowl vs. Arkansas
ESPN (McMurphy): TaxSlayer vs. Texas A&M

Step 1 is to beat Pittsburgh this Saturday.

Yup and yup.

TCB, baby.

[wallyman]

Yup and yup.

TCB, baby.
If we get there, definitely no easy games in those bowls.

[OldPhiKap]

If we get there, definitely no easy games in those bowls.

Agreed. IIRC we have been underdogs in all three bowl games so nothing new. Led all three late in the fourth quarter and saw it slip away -- hope something new at the end there.

[Bob Green]

If we get there, definitely no easy games in those bowls.

Bowl games are not suppose to be easy. The bowl game represents the culmination of an entire years hard work and preparation. It is an opportunity to finish the season with a bang...the Crown Jewel...the Grand Finale!

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW, Sports Illustrated agrees with CBSSports -- Minnesota, Pinstripe.

[budwom]

Well, bowl speculation is good clean fun. But I thought it was premature a few weeks ago, and I think it still is.

Let's see how we do vs Pitt this weekend. A win keeps us in contention for a Tier 1 bowl, while laying another egg
will heavily dampen our chances.

[blazindw]

Well, bowl speculation is good clean fun. But I thought it was premature a few weeks ago, and I think it still is.

Let's see how we do vs Pitt this weekend. A win keeps us in contention for a Tier 1 bowl, while laying another egg
will heavily dampen our chances.

On the contrary, I feel that now that we are bowl eligible, the speculation is okay. It's any speculation before that 6th win that I would consider to be premature. That speculation becomes more educated as we narrow down the season and we can really see how teams are lining up, particularly Clemson and ND.

[moonpie23]

don't know if this was mentioned, but this morning, Mike golic picked clemson to defeat duke in the acc champ game....

i thought that was odd

[Bob Green]

...this morning, Mike golic picked clemson to defeat duke in the acc champ game...

Was the prediction during the men's basketball section of the show?

[budwom]

On the contrary, I feel that now that we are bowl eligible, the speculation is okay. It's any speculation before that 6th win that I would consider to be premature. That speculation becomes more educated as we narrow down the season and we can really see how teams are lining up, particularly Clemson and ND.

I surely agree that to speculate pre six wins is a bad notion.....and speculation is harmless and fun....but the range of possibilities is so great at this time (do we finish 9-3(4)? 6-6?)
that just about anything could happen. (I say this as it relates to Duke, and not the rest of the ACC). The picture is a whole lot clearer for some other teams, like Clemmons for example.

[Bob Green]

Two of four bowl game prognosticators have us slotted into Tier 1 games, while the other two have us in Tier 2 games:

Phil Steele: Pinstripe Bowl
ESPN (Schlabach): Belk Bowl

CBS Sports: Independence Bowl
ESPN (McMurphy): Quick Lane Bowl

We need to win out and finish 8-4 to get a Tier 1 Bowl in my opinion. One victory and a 7-5 record will result in a trip to the Military Bowl.

[Olympic Fan]

Two of four bowl game prognosticators have us slotted into Tier 1 games, while the other two have us in Tier 2 games:

Phil Steele: Pinstripe Bowl
ESPN (Schlabach): Belk Bowl

CBS Sports: Independence Bowl
ESPN (McMurphy): Quick Lane Bowl

We need to win out and finish 8-4 to get a Tier 1 Bowl in my opinion. One victory and a 7-5 record will result in a trip to the Military Bowl.

I agree with this reasoning. As it now stands, the winner of the UNC-Clemson ACC title game gets a major bowl (Peach if UNC wins; playoffs if Clemson wins)

FSU almost certainly gets the Russell Bowl (If UNC beats Clemson, they get a better bowl by rule; if they lose to Clemson, the Russell would prefer 10-2 or even 9-3 FSU to 11-2 UNC. If FSU beats Florida (No. 7 in the CFP rankings), the 'Noles MIGHT get a New Year's Six bowl, but even then it's a longshot.

BTW: Notre Dame almost certainly gets a New Year's Day bowl, even if they lose to Stanford (although that would certainly eliminate them from the playoffs). That would keep them from stealing an ACC bowl spot (they can replace an ACC team from the Russell on down).

Right now, UNC looks like they are getting a Tier one bowl (unless they upset Clemson in Charlotte) -- probably the Belk Bowl. Pitt is currently the next in line.

That leaves: 6-4 Duke; 6-4 NC State; 6-4 Miami and 6-4 Louisville as fighting for the last two Tier One bids. Today, I think we miss. Louisville is the hottest of those teams, although the Cards have to play Pitt this week, so one of those teams takes a hit.

I think if Duke finishes 2-0, the Devils are in good shape -- Tier One for sure, probably the Pinstripe Bowl.

Two losses to finish out and we're scraping the bottom of the ACC's bowl barrel -- we would be passed by 6-6 Virginia Tech (assuming the Hokies win one of their last two to qualify). A 1-1 finish and it will be interesting. There is still a chance for Tier One at 7-5, depending on what other teams do, but more likely we're a Tier Two team in that scenario.

One interesting Tier Two option -- the Military Bowl in Annapolis on Dec. 28. Navy is slotted to host that bowl UNLESS Navy qualifies for the New Year's Six -- there is one slot reserved for the top team from the "other five" conferences and right now Navy is the highest ranked "other five" team (they are, in fact, one place ahead of UNC in the CFP standings). I'm pulling for Navy to win out and get a big bowl -- if we are relegated to the Military Bowl, I don't want to play Navy on their home field (although this team has done pretty well against the option).

My bowl lineup is predicated on the idea that Clemson wins out and beats UNC in Charlotte. Personally, the only way that doesn't happen is if DeShaun Watson is hurt and can't play.

If by chance UNC wins in Charlotte to finish 12-1, the Heels get the ACC slot in the New Year's six lineup -- this year, the Peach Bowl. Clemson might still get an at large spot in the New Year's Day six, but the ACC would be knocked out of the playoffs.

(PS For those who think UNC could qualify for the playoffs, I suggest you check their record -- TWO FCS wins, a loss to a sub .500 power team and no wins against anybody in the CFP Top 25 ... alright, they would have a win over Clemson in this scenario, but that would be their only quality win. There are going to be a bunch of one-loss teams with better resumes.)

[asbcheeks]

Two of four bowl game prognosticators have us slotted into Tier 1 games, while the other two have us in Tier 2 games:

Phil Steele: Pinstripe Bowl
ESPN (Schlabach): Belk Bowl

CBS Sports: Independence Bowl
ESPN (McMurphy): Quick Lane Bowl

We need to win out and finish 8-4 to get a Tier 1 Bowl in my opinion. One victory and a 7-5 record will result in a trip to the Military Bowl.

McMurphy actually has us in both Quick Lane AND TaxSlayer.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14135689/college-football-bowl-projections-week-11

Obviously a great deal of care and consideration goes into these projections.

[Indoor66]

McMurphy actually has us in both Quick Lane AND TaxSlayer.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14135689/college-football-bowl-projections-week-11

Obviously a great deal of care and consideration goes into these projections.

The boys will be exhausted after that day!

[budwom]

we keep speculating on our bowl and we keep losing. So I'm going to ignore everything until the season ends and then
read about it in the newspaper. Maybe that strategy will get us a few more wins.

[devildeac]

we keep speculating on our bowl and we keep losing. So I'm going to ignore everything until the season ends and then
read about it in the newspaper. Maybe that strategy will get us a few more wins.

Well, some of this was true...

:(

[fuse]

Belk sure feels like best possible outcome.

Military bowl against Navy as a home game would not be optimal.

[arnie]

Belk sure feels like best possible outcome.

Military bowl against Navy as a home game would not be optimal.

cbs has us in Shreveport against Arizona

[duke09hms]

Belk sure feels like best possible outcome.

Military bowl against Navy as a home game would not be optimal.

If Navy beats Houston on Friday, they're a lock for a big New Year's bowl right? Even though we match up great against option teams, they look pretty strong this year.

[Olympic Fan]

If Navy beats Houston on Friday, they're a lock for a big New Year's bowl right?

Not quite -- they still have the American Conference championship game on Dec. 5 -- the Navy-Houston winner wins the West Division, but must meet the East winner --probably Temple -- in the title game. If Navy wins that, they still have to beat Army on the 12th to lock up the major bowl bid.

Interesting that if Navy does beat Houston and Temple, the committee has said they will delay filling the last New Year's Day six bowl spot a week, until after the Army-Navy game, just in the remote chance that Army could upset the Middies. Not sure what other bowl situations that would impact. And I'm not sure who else would be in line for the major bowl bid -- certainly not Houston, Temple or Memphis (all teams Navy would have beaten in that scenario). Maybe Toledo (if they win out in the MAC)?

Agree that after the Virginia loss, we're looking at either the Independence or the Military bowl ... although if we lose to wake and VPI beats Virginia, we could very well end up in Detroit for the Quciken Lanes Bowl.

[Olympic Fan]

Nothing major, but today's early games had at least some impact on Duke's bowl destination.

-- With Houston beating Navy, that assures that Navy will be in the Military Bowl -- which is our most likely bowl destination. Tough opponent for a tier two bowl -- this in the best Navy team in 25 years (although we have played well this year against the option). They'll be 10-2 after beating Army in two weeks.

-- Not sure what to make of Miami's upset of Pitt, but it's probably the worst thing that could happen to us. For one thing, it means Miami finishes 7-5 and they are almost certainly ahead of us in the bowl pecking order, even if we do beat Wake tomorrow to also finish 7-5. But the real impact could be that the loss solidifies Pitt's status as a tier one bowl team. They won't get better than that, but unless UNC drops, they will be the top team that the tier one bowls will be bidding for.

The reason I think this is important deals with a conversation I had with an ACC official earlier this week about the league's bowl prospects. He told me that the Pinstripe Bowl really wants Duke ... but that they want Pitt even more. If they have a shot at Pitt, they take Pitt ... if they somehow miss Pitt, Duke is their next choice (not sure if being 6-6 or 7-5 makes a difference ... also not sure of what goes on when the ACC gets together with the tier one bowls and divvies up three teams -- a year ago, the Pinstripe had to take 7-5 Boston College, which has the worst traveling fanbase in the ACC -- much worse than ours; my guess is that the Pinstripe gets a break this year and gets who they want ... and that's Pitt).

At any rate, the Pinestripe is the best we can do ... and even that's a longshot. As I said earlier, we're likely to end up in the Military Bowl against 10-2 Navy.

Other things I learned -- the Belk Bowl REALLY wants Virginia Tech for Frank Beamer's last game. If the Hokies beat Virginia tomorrow, they are in Charlotte at 6-6. If they lose and finish 5-7 (no bowl), then NC State probably gets the Belk spot.

Also, I was told that the Peach Bowl is zeroed in on Florida State -- if the Noles beat Florida tomorrow night. For that to happen, Clemson has to qualify for the playoff ... that would send UNC to the Russell Bowl. (Note: the only way UNC avoids the Russell is if the Heels upset Clemson in the ACC title game, then they get a big bowl -- probably the Peach, which would relegate FSU to the Russell; for bowl purposes, UNC's game with NC State is meaningless to the Heels.

[nyesq83]

Thanks, Oly for all you have done to fill us in this season.

My dedication to Duke Football has taken a big hit since the Miami unpleasantness. I won't go to Wake tomorrow.

I may go to the bowl game, if it doesn't interfere with a more desirable concert at the National theater here in Richmond, VA.

Sorry, I can only handle so much heartbreak.

[johnb]

for our long term fortunes, I'd say we root for Oklahoma tonight, since that is crucial to notre dame not getting into the playoffs. I don't know their pain threshold, but if they are left out of the playoffs a couple of times, they might be willing to fully join the acc. Obviously, we should be careful what we wish for since they'd likely join the Coastal, but if we want big time football, we could use ND as a yearly opponent.

[jv001]

Nothing major, but today's early games had at least some impact on Duke's bowl destination.

-- With Houston beating Navy, that assures that Navy will be in the Military Bowl -- which is our most likely bowl destination. Tough opponent for a tier two bowl -- this in the best Navy team in 25 years (although we have played well this year against the option). They'll be 10-2 after beating Army in two weeks.

-- Not sure what to make of Miami's upset of Pitt, but it's probably the worst thing that could happen to us. For one thing, it means Miami finishes 7-5 and they are almost certainly ahead of us in the bowl pecking order, even if we do beat Wake tomorrow to also finish 7-5. But the real impact could be that the loss solidifies Pitt's status as a tier one bowl team. They won't get better than that, but unless UNC drops, they will be the top team that the tier one bowls will be bidding for.

The reason I think this is important deals with a conversation I had with an ACC official earlier this week about the league's bowl prospects. He told me that the Pinstripe Bowl really wants Duke ... but that they want Pitt even more. If they have a shot at Pitt, they take Pitt ... if they somehow miss Pitt, Duke is their next choice (not sure if being 6-6 or 7-5 makes a difference ... also not sure of what goes on when the ACC gets together with the tier one bowls and divvies up three teams -- a year ago, the Pinstripe had to take 7-5 Boston College, which has the worst traveling fanbase in the ACC -- much worse than ours; my guess is that the Pinstripe gets a break this year and gets who they want ... and that's Pitt).

At any rate, the Pinestripe is the best we can do ... and even that's a longshot. As I said earlier, we're likely to end up in the Military Bowl against 10-2 Navy.

Other things I learned -- the Belk Bowl REALLY wants Virginia Tech for Frank Beamer's last game. If the Hokies beat Virginia tomorrow, they are in Charlotte at 6-6. If they lose and finish 5-7 (no bowl), then NC State probably gets the Belk spot.

Also, I was told that the Peach Bowl is zeroed in on Florida State -- if the Noles beat Florida tomorrow night. For that to happen, Clemson has to qualify for the playoff ... that would send UNC to the Russell Bowl. (Note: the only way UNC avoids the Russell is if the Heels upset Clemson in the ACC title game, then they get a big bowl -- probably the Peach, which would relegate FSU to the Russell; for bowl purposes, UNC's game with NC State is meaningless to the Heels.

Thanks for your work on Duke Football, it's appreciated. As for Miami at 7-5, I'll always know it should be 6-6. Even though we didn't deserve to win because of playing so lousy for most of the game, we did comeback and actually won the game until the striped shirted morons stepped in. ACC officials are terrible and that includes all major sports. GoDuke!

[Bob Green]

As for Miami at 7-5, I'll always know it should be 6-6.

Miami is 8-4.

[fisheyes]

Now that we are 7-5 I think that we should be in good shape for the Pinstripe Bowl. BC last year represented the ACC at the same 7-5 record. They made a strong presentation to the committee that there were a lot of BC alums in the NYC area. I think that we can do the same! Better than the Military Bowl against Navy. Thoughts?

[budwom]

yes, many Submasondixonites* will complain about non balmy weather in NYC in December (not sure Maryland would be any better) but it's a great venue with a
big Duke fan base in the area. Hope we don't face a team that throws the ball well.

*The vitriol against the Pinstripe Bowl was pretty startling last year on a bunch of Duke message boards.

[dukebsbll14]

yes, many Submasondixonites* will complain about non balmy weather in NYC in December (not sure Maryland would be any better) but it's a great venue with a
big Duke fan base in the area. Hope we don't face a team that throws the ball well.

*The vitriol against the Pinstripe Bowl was pretty startling last year on a bunch of Duke message boards.

Military Bowl would attract the Duke in DC crowd which is also pretty substantial (Annapolis is about 40 min away).

Also, there's a casino by BWI Airport.

[budwom]

Military Bowl would attract the Duke in DC crowd which is also pretty substantial (Annapolis is about 40 min away).

Also, there's a casino by BWI Airport.

They could also play it at Dulles Airport, making it the first bowl game ever to be played at a prison (I spent 11 hours stuck there two weeks ago. What a dysfunctional dump.)

[dukebsbll14]

They could also play it at Dulles Airport, making it the first bowl game ever to be played at a prison (I spent 11 hours stuck there two weeks ago. What a dysfunctional dump.)

There's no way that could be worse than if it was at Newark Airport though. In the terminal where all of the NC flights come in, they don't even have indoor bathrooms. You have to go outside (not like literally find a bush but they have trailers set up outside). I had to clarify that last part because it is, after all, Newark.

[Henderson]

Military Bowl would attract the Duke in DC crowd which is also pretty substantial.

Do you really think hordes of DC area Duke grads, who never went to football games when they were students, are going to drive to Annapolis and sit in the cold on December 28 to watch Duke play Navy with absolutely nothing at stake? When Duke's MBB team is playing that night?

[dukebsbll14]

Do you really think hordes of DC area Duke grads, who never went to football games when they were students, are going to drive to Annapolis and sit in the cold on December 28 to watch Duke play Navy with absolutely nothing at stake? When Duke's MBB team is playing that night?

Probably the same amount who live in New York, and also did not go to football games as students, who would sit in the cold (New York winter cold) and watch Duke play a game the day after Christmas with absolutely nothing at stake.

[duke09hms]

Do you really think hordes of DC area Duke grads, who never went to football games when they were students, are going to drive to Annapolis and sit in the cold on December 28 to watch Duke play Navy with absolutely nothing at stake? When Duke's MBB team is playing that night?

Yep, the last three bowls indicate that Duke alums will come out now that we're actually competitive and trying. At stake is our first bowl in in 53 years.

[Olympic Fan]

Miami is 8-4.

Miami finished 7-5 ... it was Duke that finished 8-4.

But, yes, I expect Duke will have a good turnout --whether we end up in the Pinstripe Bowl or in the Military Bowl.

It's amazing how skeptics keep knocking our supposedly small fan base (and based on home attendance, that's fair), but Duke's turnout for the Belk Bowl in 2012 and the Peach (Chik-fil-A) Bowl in 2014 were exceptional -- above bowl expectations. There wasn't a big turnout for the Sun Bowl, but that's expected -- the bowl doesn't expect or allot many tickets for eastern teams.

The point is tat our reputation for turnout is excellent -- at least with the bowls.

[jimsumner]

Yep, the last three bowls indicate that Duke alums will come out now that we're actually competitive and trying. At stake is our first bowl in in 53 years.

Please note that Duke's last bowl win was in January 1961, which means it was the culmination of the 1960 season, which means it has been 55 seasons since Duke won a bowl game.

And yes, I'm old enough to remember it.

[duke09hms]

Please note that Duke's last bowl win was in January 1961, which means it was the culmination of the 1960 season, which means it has been 55 seasons since Duke won a bowl game.

And yes, I'm old enough to remember it.

Ah yes, 54 yrs/55 seasons. The 53 year number was unfortunately the number I threw around last year :(

Let's do it DUKE! Now that we only have the bowl game left, we can say that our late-season collapse might help us get a more beatable bowl opponent. Who's the likely Big 10 rep in the Pinstripe? And who is more beatable, this Big 10 team or Navy?

[DeweyDevil]

Do you really think hordes of DC area Duke grads, who never went to football games when they were students, are going to drive to Annapolis and sit in the cold on December 28 to watch Duke play Navy with absolutely nothing at stake? When Duke's MBB team is playing that night?

I live in Northern Virginia and work in DC. I hope that if Duke goes to an ACC "Tier 2" Bowl it's the Military Bowl and not Shreveport or Detroit. I've pre-ordered a couple of tickets to the Military Bowl through www.goduke.com and would likely order more if that is Duke's bowl destination. Since the Military Bowl is in the afternoon, I could even work a half day in DC and then head out to Annapolis for the bowl game. Navy-Marine Corp Stadium is a very nice stadium. I haven't been there since Duke last played Navy in Annapolis about 3 or 4 years ago.

[84crazy]

Sigh...playing in a bowl game has degenerated into the equivalent of getting a participation trophy in little league.
Anything to have young eyeballs to watch the 25 minutes of commercials per hour

[budwom]

Sigh...playing in a bowl game has degenerated into the equivalent of getting a participation trophy in little league.
Anything to have young eyeballs to watch the 25 minutes of commercials per hour

One of the genuine benefits (besides for recruiting) is the extra month of practice it affords. That's no small thing...good chance to move some people around.

[sagegrouse]

Sigh...playing in a bowl game has degenerated into the equivalent of getting a participation trophy in little league.
Anything to have young eyeballs to watch the 25 minutes of commercials per hour

You're right, and to think we went from 1995-2011 without getting a participation trophy.

[84crazy]

Time to go out and win a bowl game!!!! Man up and finish strong, play to win and score till the end of the game. I'm so fed up with announcers and coaches getting scared to lose a lead and playing the clock too early instead of keeping their foot on the gas pedal and letting the kids do what they've been trained to do. Should be looking at winning our third bowl game in the last four years instead of our first in 50! Let's Go Duke!

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Sigh...playing in a bowl game has degenerated into the equivalent of getting a participation trophy in little league.
Anything to have young eyeballs to watch the 25 minutes of commercials per hour

Let's not forget the revenue bowl games bring in. After deducting the costs to participate, the athletic department will make some money.

[JasonEvans]

Sigh...playing in a bowl game has degenerated into the equivalent of getting a participation trophy in little league.

Are you suggesting that there are only 4 real participants in the college football post-season?

[Bob Green]

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. LSU

http://campusinsiders.com/news/2015-2016-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13-11-29-2015

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. Missouri

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

[brevity]

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. LSU

http://campusinsiders.com/news/2015-2016-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13-11-29-2015

The Alleva Bowl, sponsored by Aleve.

[arnie]

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. LSU

http://campusinsiders.com/news/2015-2016-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13-11-29-2015

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. Missouri

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

LSU? Ugh we don't need that. Missouri is much more beatable.

[Olympic Fan]

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. LSU

http://campusinsiders.com/news/2015-2016-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13-11-29-2015

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. Missouri

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Neither projection makes a lot of sense.

The first one has Clemson in the playoff, UNC in the Peach and FSU in the Russell. But for Clemson to be in the playoff, they have to beat UNC -- and if that happens, 10-2 FSU (coming off a dominant win over Florida) is a much more attractive draw for the Peach than UNC, coming off a loss to Clemson. They also have VPI in the Military Bowl -- I think they are locked into the Belk Bowl.

The CBS projection has VPI in the Belk as expected and FSU in the Peach (with UNC in the Russell). Their mistake is the Pinstripe -- they have 7-5 NC State in the Pinstripe ... believe me, if it comes down to us or NC State, it will be us. I still think it's Pitt, but if not Pitt then Duke -- although I hear that Miami is making a big behinds the scenes push for the Pinstripe.

[OldPhiKap]

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. LSU

http://campusinsiders.com/news/2015-2016-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-13-11-29-2015

Independence Bowl: Duke vs. Missouri

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

I don't really want a part of either of them. I'll take Navy in Annapolis.

[devildeac]

Neither projection makes a lot of sense.

The first one has Clemson in the playoff, UNC in the Peach and FSU in the Russell. But for Clemson to be in the playoff, they have to beat UNC -- and if that happens, 10-2 FSU (coming off a dominant win over Florida) is a much more attractive draw for the Peach than UNC, coming off a loss to Clemson. They also have VPI in the Military Bowl -- I think they are locked into the Belk Bowl.

The CBS projection has VPI in the Belk as expected and FSU in the Peach (with UNC in the Russell). Their mistake is the Pinstripe -- they have 7-5 NC State in the Pinstripe ... believe me, if it comes down to us or NC State, it will be us. I still think it's Pitt, but if not Pitt then Duke -- although I hear that Miami is making a big behinds the back push for the Pinstripe.


FIFY.:mad::mad:

[fuse]

While I doubt my family makes it to the bowl this year, all I hope for is the opportunity for Duke to compete and win Duke's first bowl game in forever.
One more game, DukeGang- go get it! Let's Go Duke!

[BigWayne]

Neither projection makes a lot of sense.

The first one has Clemson in the playoff, UNC in the Peach and FSU in the Russell. But for Clemson to be in the playoff, they have to beat UNC -- and if that happens, 10-2 FSU (coming off a dominant win over Florida) is a much more attractive draw for the Peach than UNC, coming off a loss to Clemson. They also have VPI in the Military Bowl -- I think they are locked into the Belk Bowl.

The CBS projection has VPI in the Belk as expected and FSU in the Peach (with UNC in the Russell). Their mistake is the Pinstripe -- they have 7-5 NC State in the Pinstripe ... believe me, if it comes down to us or NC State, it will be us. I still think it's Pitt, but if not Pitt then Duke -- although I hear that Miami is making a big behinds the scenes push for the Pinstripe.

I am pretty sure the Peach and the other 5 bowls contracted by the CFP scheme get their teams picked by order of the CFP rankings. Basically, you have to be in the top 10-11 to get one of these 12 slots or be a lower ranked winner of one of the P5 conferences or the top champion from the other 5.

[Olympic Fan]

I am pretty sure the Peach and the other 5 bowls contracted by the CFP scheme get their teams picked by order of the CFP rankings. Basically, you have to be in the top 10-11 to get one of these 12 slots or be a lower ranked winner of one of the P5 conferences or the top champion from the other 5.

To get a top six bowl, you have to be in the top 12 of the CFP rankings (or win a power 5 conference) -- which FSU will be after this week's poll comes out (so will UNC, although they drop out of the top 12 if they lose to Clemson).

Top 12 doesn't guarantee anything -- only conference champions and any other top six finisher are guaranteed spots in a top six bowl. But the bowls do not have to pick by order -- they are free to pick any eligible team. Bowls often lean over backwards to pick teams from their conference tie ins -- pretty certain, for instance, that the Rose Bowl will match the winner of the Pac 12 title game (Stanford-USC) against a Big 10 team (probably Ohio State, maybe the Iowa-MSU loser).

One other quirk -- there is one spot reserved in the top six for the top team from outside the power five. That teams does not have to be in the top 12 of the rankings. This year, that bid will almost certainly go to the winner of Saturday's Houston-Temple game.

So break it down this way -- there are 12 spots open for the top six bowls (two playoff bowls and four other major bowls). Five places have to go to conference champions. One has to go to the top non-power 5 team. That leaves six at large spots. As it now stands, Ohio State, Notre Dame and FSU are almost certain to get three of those spots.

You can take it FWIW, but I'm told that the Peach REALLY wants Florida State. unless something happens to squeeze the Noles out (which is possible) or unless UNC beats Clemson (which puts UNC in either the playoff or the Peach). Behind the scenes talk about a Notre Dame-FSU matchup, which would be the Peach's dream scenario.

[SCMatt33]

To get a top six bowl, you have to be in the top 12 of the CFP rankings (or win a power 5 conference) -- which FSU will be after this week's poll comes out (so will UNC, although they drop out of the top 12 if they lose to Clemson).

I'm pretty sure that top 12 rule was the old criteria for BCS eligibility and isn't part of the CFP. Sorry I'm not linking this, but I'm on my phone and inserting hyperlinks crashes the browser for some reason. Anyway, the FAQ page on the CFP's website lists the procedure for selecting teams for non playoff, non contracted bowls (Peach and Fiesta this year). The first two are the Go5 auto bid and displaced conference champs (UNC is the only team that could meet this criteria as Clemson would make the playoff and Stanford or Florida would go to a contracted bowl should they win and miss the playoff. The third criteria is as follows:

(3) the remaining teams ranked highest in the committee’s rankings.

This sounds to me like they go in direct numerical order. The FAQ goes on to give some leeway as to which bowl a particular team will go to within the NY6, but it's pretty clear that a lower ranked team cannot be selected over a higher ranked team unless it's for an auto bid or contracted bowl. If FSU is ahead of UNC, FSU gets the nod (except for the extremely unlikely scenario that both FSU and UNC are ranked high enough to get in.)

[Olympic Fan]

I'm pretty sure that top 12 rule was the old criteria for BCS eligibility and isn't part of the CFP. Sorry I'm not linking this, but I'm on my phone and inserting hyperlinks crashes the browser for some reason. Anyway, the FAQ page on the CFP's website lists the procedure for selecting teams for non playoff, non contracted bowls (Peach and Fiesta this year). The first two are the Go5 auto bid and displaced conference champs (UNC is the only team that could meet this criteria as Clemson would make the playoff and Stanford or Florida would go to a contracted bowl should they win and miss the playoff. The third criteria is as follows:

(3) the remaining teams ranked highest in the committee’s rankings.

This sounds to me like they go in direct numerical order. The FAQ goes on to give some leeway as to which bowl a particular team will go to within the NY6, but it's pretty clear that a lower ranked team cannot be selected over a higher ranked team unless it's for an auto bid or contracted bowl. If FSU is ahead of UNC, FSU gets the nod (except for the extremely unlikely scenario that both FSU and UNC are ranked high enough to get in.)

Sorry, but I inquired about this about a month ago from an ACC official who deal with football and what he reported to me is what I passed on to you.

And what I'm telling you about the Peach Bowl and their desire to get Florida State comes straight from a very well connected source in the ACC office ... you don't have to believe it if you don't want.

[Bob Green]

ESPN Projections Week 13:

http://espn.go.com/ncf/story/_/id/14254993/college-football-bowl-projections-week-13

Military Bowl: Duke vs. Navy (Schlabach)
Independence Bowl: Duke vs. Missouri (McMurphy)

These projections have Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, Pittsburgh in the Pinstripe Bowl and Florida State in the Peach Bowl.

[SCMatt33]

Sorry, but I inquired about this about a month ago from an ACC official who deal with football and what he reported to me is what I passed on to you.

And what I'm telling you about the Peach Bowl and their desire to get Florida State comes straight from a very well connected source in the ACC office ... you don't have to believe it if you don't want.

That's not necessarily mutually exclusive from what I said. There's certainly plenty of lobbying going on behind the scenes. Certainly, the Peach Bowl could make it known to the committee which teams from the rankings it wants, as I said, there will be 4 teams (1 Go5 and 3 at large) that fill the Peach and Fiesta bowls. Those 4 can be divided between the two bowls in any way the committee chooses so I can imagine that both are 1) lobbying to avoid the Go5 team, and 2) lobbying for teams with large canvases who don't need to travel far (i.e. FSU). Furthermore, I'm only saying that the teams who go to the Fiesta and Peach bowl will also be the highest ranked in the final poll. How the proverbial sausage gets made I don't know. If FSU is in the peach bowl, they will be ranked higher than UNC. Whether the bowl placement is made because of the final rankings, or whether the final rankings get fudged to match the desired bowl placement could certainly be debated.

[sagegrouse]

That's not necessarily mutually exclusive from what I said. There's certainly plenty of lobbying going on behind the scenes. Certainly, the Peach Bowl could make it known to the committee which teams from the rankings it wants, as I said, there will be 4 teams (1 Go5 and 3 at large) that fill the Peach and Fiesta bowls. Those 4 can be divided between the two bowls in any way the committee chooses so I can imagine that both are 1) lobbying to avoid the Go5 team, and 2) lobbying for teams with large canvases who don't need to travel far (i.e. FSU). Furthermore, I'm only saying that the teams who go to the Fiesta and Peach bowl will also be the highest ranked in the final poll. How the proverbial sausage gets made I don't know. If FSU is in the peach bowl, they will be ranked higher than UNC. Whether the bowl placement is made because of the final rankings, or whether the final rankings get fudged to match the desired bowl placement could certainly be debated.

I seem to recall all the rumors and inside information two years ago about the Peach Bowl -- and most of it was wrong. But (human) nature abhors a vacuum.

[Olympic Fan]

I seem to recall all the rumors and inside information two years ago about the Peach Bowl -- and most of it was wrong. But (human) nature abhors a vacuum.

Actually, it was our esteemed beat writer who got it wrong ... most of the posters on their board nailed it.

[BigWayne]

I seem to recall all the rumors and inside information two years ago about the Peach Bowl -- and most of it was wrong. But (human) nature abhors a vacuum.

Two years ago was in the BCFP era. It's now completely different. This new procedure was adopted unanimously by the BCS Group – June 20, 2012 (http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-protocol) and has not been amended as far as I can tell.

The CFP committee is supposed to pick the teams by the rankings according to this procedure.

All displaced conference champions and the highest ranked champion from a non-contract conference, as ranked by the committee, will participate in selected other bowl games and will be assigned to those games by the committee. If berths in the selected other bowl games remain available after those teams have been identified, the highest ranked other teams, as ranked by the committee, will fill those berths in rank order.

Selected other bowl games is the term they use for the 4 bowls not used as CFP semifinal games. There are a bunch of other subjective criteria then applied to determine which teams go to which bowls.

The main reason I said top 10-11 is because there are 12 total slots. The one taken by the non P5 team will probably be a lower ranked team. One of the P5 champs might be outside the top 12. At this point, that would probably only be USC if they beat Stanford.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I assume all the speculation is about to end; is there an unwritten (or written rule) that they wait for the CFP selections before offering bids?

[HK Dukie]

I assume all the speculation is about to end; is there an unwritten (or written rule) that they wait for the CFP selections before offering bids?

As much as it would annoy me, if UNC beats Clemson I think they should be in the top 4 for the playoffs. The ACC gets a bad rap and it is not justified. In particular this is true for the Coastal. Did you know the Coastal went 10-4 vs the Atlantic this year, the division that includes the #1 team in Football? Even versus the SEC in the final week of the season the ACC went 3-1 (last year 4-0).

An ACC conference champ that has won 12 straight games, from the tougher division, with the Pac10 champ having at least 2 losses with a worse schedule strength, would indicate they must be strongly in the conversation.

Hopefully Clemson will eliminate my sympathy.

[Highlander]

As much as it would annoy me, if UNC beats Clemson I think they should be in the top 4 for the playoffs. The ACC gets a bad rap and it is not justified. In particular this is true for the Coastal. Did you know the Coastal went 10-4 vs the Atlantic this year, the division that includes the #1 team in Football? Even versus the SEC in the final week of the season the ACC went 3-1 (last year 4-0).

An ACC conference champ that has won 12 straight games, from the tougher division, with the Pac10 champ having at least 2 losses with a worse schedule strength, would indicate they must be strongly in the conversation.

Hopefully Clemson will eliminate my sympathy.

No way UNC makes the CFP game. They are 14th in the most recent ranking with too much ground to make up. Maybe if they destroyed Clemson by 50 points they'd have an outside shot, but even then I highly doubt it. There are 6 major conference champions (including Notre Dame) and 4 spots, so two are going to be left out. Here's how I think they break down:
1) ACC - Clemson is in if they win. UNC has no shot.
2) SEC - Alabama is in if they win. Florida has little to no shot.
3) B12 - Oklahoma (IIRC) has no conf championship game, so they are at risk. But if Clemson or Alabama lose, they are definitely in.
4) B10 - Iowa or MSU - OSU has no shot since they can't build a stronger case than whoever wins this game, and no way two teams from the same conference make it this year.
5) Notre Dame - Equal record to UNC currently with a better loss, and they're likely being left out.
6) PAC12 - Stanford/USC - UNC arguably has a better record than Stanford, win or lose. But this conference is likely being left out.

So for UNC to have a remote shot, the following would have to happen (IMO):
1) UNC beats Clemson in convincing fashion (30+ points).
2) Florida beats Alabama, all but eliminating the SEC.
3) Okahoma and B10 champs are now guaranteed a spot.
4) UNC is left to make their case for the last two spots with Notre Dame, Baylor, Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma State, etc. In that scenario I think ND gets in, and UNC has a decent argument since they would be 12-1 and conference champs. Taking Baylor, OSU, or OkSt. would be taking a second team from those conferences, and the payday there would be huge. Florida likely has a strong argument as the SEC champion, but their loss the previous week to FSU (a team UNC did not have to play) hurts them.

Most likely scenario if UNC wins is that they knock Clemson (and the ACC) out of the college football championship. So it's in the ACC's best interest for everyone to cheer for Clemson :)

[Bob Green]

Phil Steele:

https://www.philsteele.com/bowls/15-16/bowlprojections.html

Pinstripe Bowl: Duke vs. Indiana

[JasonEvans]

3) B12 - Oklahoma (IIRC) has no conf championship game, so they are at risk. But if Clemson or Alabama lose, they are definitely in.

I'm confused by your comment that Oklahoma is "at risk." I cannot think of any scenario where the Sooners are not a done deal for the CFP. They are the only sure-thing at this point but they are a sure-thing. They have no more games left to play and there is no way they drop to #5.

Clemson - win and they are the #1 seed (unless they win a close, ugly game and Bama just rolls Florida)
Alabama - win and they are the #2 seed
Oklahoma - in already (though I suspect the Big10 winner will likely leap them in the standings)
Big10 winner - the winner of Iowa-MSU will be in for sure and there is almost no way the loser makes it.

But, if Clemson or Alabama lose, it gets dicey.

I think it will be hard to put Ohio St in after they didn't even make the Big10 championship game. In essence, by putting them in and leaving either Iowa or MSU out, you are rewarding the Buckeyes for having a worse season than the teams that earned a spot in the Big10 title game. But if not Ohio St, then who goes?

It would be a lot easier if Florida had beaten FSU and was a 1-loss team. Then, they could go with a win over Alabama. But, they lost to FSU and even beating Alabama by a couple TDs proably would not be enough to get them in.

I think UNC's loss to South Carolina and their wretched out of conference scheduling is too much for the Heels to overcome. The committee won't want to put in a team that played such a cupcake non-conference slate. As an aside, can anyone figure out how FSU lost to Ga Tech, Tech;s only ACC win this season???! Without that loss, I think FSU would be primed to take a spot in the CFP if Clemson or Bama lost.

If Stanford just wallops USC, I think they may be in with a Clemson/Bama slip, but now you are taking a 2-loss team when there are other 1-loss teams who seem deserving. This is tough.

It will be muuuuuch better for the committee if Bama and Clemson win. Then you have 4 teams that everyone agrees are the right 4 and I doubt anyone complains too loudly. But, if we get an upset in the ACC or SEC, it throws this thing into chaos. Lets say Iowa loses a very close game to MSU, would you still put Iowa in there? What about Clemson or Bama losing a close one, could they still hold on to the #4 spot and a place in the playoff? Wouldn't a 12-1 Clemson or an 11-2 Bama be one of the 4 best teams in the land?

-Jason "this ain't easy!" Evans

[mike88]

No way UNC makes the CFP game. They are 14th in the most recent ranking with too much ground to make up. Maybe if they destroyed Clemson by 50 points they'd have an outside shot, but even then I highly doubt it. There are 6 major conference champions (including Notre Dame) and 4 spots, so two are going to be left out. Here's how I think they break down:
1) ACC - Clemson is in if they win. UNC has no shot.
2) SEC - Alabama is in if they win. Florida has little to no shot.
3) B12 - Oklahoma (IIRC) has no conf championship game, so they are at risk. But if Clemson or Alabama lose, they are definitely in.
4) B10 - Iowa or MSU - OSU has no shot since they can't build a stronger case than whoever wins this game, and no way two teams from the same conference make it this year.
5) Notre Dame - Equal record to UNC currently with a better loss, and they're likely being left out.
6) PAC12 - Stanford/USC - UNC arguably has a better record than Stanford, win or lose. But this conference is likely being left out.

So for UNC to have a remote shot, the following would have to happen (IMO):
1) UNC beats Clemson in convincing fashion (30+ points).
2) Florida beats Alabama, all but eliminating the SEC.
3) Okahoma and B10 champs are now guaranteed a spot.
4) UNC is left to make their case for the last two spots with Notre Dame, Baylor, Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma State, etc. In that scenario I think ND gets in, and UNC has a decent argument since they would be 12-1 and conference champs. Taking Baylor, OSU, or OkSt. would be taking a second team from those conferences, and the payday there would be huge. Florida likely has a strong argument as the SEC champion, but their loss the previous week to FSU (a team UNC did not have to play) hurts them.

Most likely scenario if UNC wins is that they knock Clemson (and the ACC) out of the college football championship. So it's in the ACC's best interest for everyone to cheer for Clemson :)

Notre Dame has two losses currently; UNC has (unfortunately) only 1
If UNC beats Clemson, and Alabama wins, then the playoff becomes:

1. Alabama
2. B10 winner
3. Oklahoma
4. ??? - with UNC and Ohio State, and possibly a PAC-10 champion Stanford having the best cases - I would give the final spot to ACC Champ UNC

If Alabama loses too, then things are a little crazier

[Olympic Fan]

No way UNC makes the CFP game. They are 14th in the most recent ranking with too much ground to make up. Maybe if they destroyed Clemson by 50 points they'd have an outside shot, but even then I highly doubt it. There are 6 major conference champions (including Notre Dame) and 4 spots, so two are going to be left out. Here's how I think they break down:
1) ACC - Clemson is in if they win. UNC has no shot.
2) SEC - Alabama is in if they win. Florida has little to no shot.
3) B12 - Oklahoma (IIRC) has no conf championship game, so they are at risk. But if Clemson or Alabama lose, they are definitely in.
4) B10 - Iowa or MSU - OSU has no shot since they can't build a stronger case than whoever wins this game, and no way two teams from the same conference make it this year.
5) Notre Dame - Equal record to UNC currently with a better loss, and they're likely being left out.
6) PAC12 - Stanford/USC - UNC arguably has a better record than Stanford, win or lose. But this conference is likely being left out.


Not quite true ... UNC is 11-1 at the moment ... Notre Dame has finished at 10-2. If UNC beats Clemson (which beat Notre Dame) they are at 12-1. Heck, even if they lose to Clemson, they finish with a better record than Notre Dame (11-2 vs 10-2).

Also curious why you say UNC has "no shot" while you say Florida has "little to no shot" What makes two loss Florida -- coming off a major thumping at the hands of Florida State -- have a better chance than one-loss UNC -- especially since UNC will have just beaten the higher ranked team?

I agree that UNC's resume is not great stuff -- right now they have two FCS wins and haven't beaten a single team in the CFP Top 25. Their best wins are 8-4 Pitt and 8-4 (really 7-5) Miami ... and they have a bad loss to a losing South Carolina team.

Still, a 12-1 finish with a closing victory over No. 1 Clemson would certainly carry a lot of weight. The committee has made it clear that championships are a major component in their decision. Would 12-1 ACC champ UNC be passed over for 11-2 Pac 12 champ Stanford (assuming Stanford beats USC)? For 10-2 Notre Dame (with no conference title)? For 11-1 Ohio State (with no conference title)?

Look, I hate the cheaters as much as anybody, but I am very afraid that if they beat Clemson, they get in. Of course, I think their chances of beating Clemson are very slim, so this is probably a futile debate.

PS I think Oklahoma is the one absolute lock to be in the playoffs. They don't have a conference championship game, but they have won the Big 12 championship -- outright. The Michigan State-Iowa winner is in. Alabama and Clemson are in if they win their conference title games. That's the four. If Alabama and/or Clemson stumble, then UNC, Stanford, Ohio State fight for the 1/2 openings.

[Highlander]

I'm confused by your comment that Oklahoma is "at risk." I cannot think of any scenario where the Sooners are not a done deal for the CFP. They are the only sure-thing at this point but they are a sure-thing. They have no more games left to play and there is no way they drop to #5.

Clemson - win and they are the #1 seed (unless they win a close, ugly game and Bama just rolls Florida)
Alabama - win and they are the #2 seed
Oklahoma - in already (though I suspect the Big10 winner will likely leap them in the standings)
Big10 winner - the winner of Iowa-MSU will be in for sure and there is almost no way the loser makes it.

But, if Clemson or Alabama lose, it gets dicey.


-Jason "this ain't easy!" Evans

The reason I had Oklahoma as a maybe was in a scenario where Iowa, Clemson, and Alabama all win out. IMO, you cannot keep those 3 teams out because they won their conference championship game. OSU doesn't have a championship game to win, so everyone else would essentially be gunning for their spot (as you note, the B10 winner would likely pass them in the standings). I see your point that if not the B12 champ, then who? Probably unlikely they could get bumped. But if anyone were to get bumped in that scenario because something crazy happened, I think it would be the idle Sooners.

[Olympic Fan]

The reason I had Oklahoma as a maybe was in a scenario where Iowa, Clemson, and Alabama all win out. IMO, you cannot keep those 3 teams out because they won their conference championship game. OSU doesn't have a championship game to win, so everyone else would essentially be gunning for their spot (as you note, the B10 winner would likely pass them in the standings). I see your point that if not the B12 champ, then who? Probably unlikely they could get bumped. But if anyone were to get bumped in that scenario because something crazy happened, I think it would be the idle Sooners.

Just to clarify -- there are no committee guidelines that specially reward the winner of a conference championship game ... the big one is for a conference champion.

A year ago, the Big 12 had co-champions and that did hurt. But this year, Oklahoma is the clear-cut Big 12 champion.

It's possible that the Big Ten championship game winner may pass them in the standings, but no one else has a chance. And since they can't lose this weekend, the Sooners are a lock for the playoffs.

BTW. It will be interesting to see the CFP Show on ESPN tonight (7 p.m.) and see the penultimate rankings. This most interesting things to watch for will be UNC's placement (do they crack the top 10), how far FSU climbs (they need to get in the top 12 to keep the Peach Bowl option open) and how far Florida drops (I think they will be so far down that they are clearly out of the playoff picture).

Pretty sure the top five will be the same as last week: 1. Clemson, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Iowa and 5. Michigan State. The order might change slightly, but those clearly have to be the top five. Who is No. 6? I'm guessing Stanford, but it could be Ohio State.

[Highlander]

Not quite true ... UNC is 11-1 at the moment ... Notre Dame has finished at 10-2. If UNC beats Clemson (which beat Notre Dame) they are at 12-1. Heck, even if they lose to Clemson, they finish with a better record than Notre Dame (11-2 vs 10-2).

I was looking at the most recent college football rankings which were from last Tuesday, so they had ND at 11-1. Still, ND has two losses to top 10 teams and UNC has one loss to a team with a losing record and no top 10 wins. Not as strong a case as I had originally thought, but it is essentially a record vs. SOS argument.


Also curious why you say UNC has "no shot" while you say Florida has "little to no shot" What makes two loss Florida -- coming off a major thumping at the hands of Florida State -- have a better chance than one-loss UNC -- especially since UNC will have just beaten the higher ranked team?



re: Florida vs. UNC: I am a bit cynical in that if it comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and a 2 loss SEC champion, the committee could easily decide to go with the SEC champ over the ACC champ, especially since UNC's SOSe << Florida's SOS. Just have a hard time seeing the SEC champion not making the playoff and being vaulted by the ACC champion.

[Olympic Fan]

I was looking at the most recent college football rankings which were from last Tuesday, so they had ND at 11-1.

Really? Notre Dame was never 11-1 ... they were 10-1 before the Stanford game.


re: Florida vs. UNC: I am a bit cynical in that if it comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and a 2 loss SEC champion, the committee could easily decide to go with the SEC champ over the ACC champ, especially since UNC's SOSe << Florida's SOS. Just have a hard time seeing the SEC champion not making the playoff and being vaulted by the ACC champion.

So you are counting on SEC bias ... a two-loss SEC team that had to go overtime to beat Florida Atlantic, that only beat East Carolina on a fluke play and just got killed by FSU in the last week of the regular season gets in?

And while Florida's TWO losses are better than UNC's ONE loss, it's hard to say the same about their wins. They have one quality win (over Ole Miss). The rest of their record is drek -- and the SEC East is a far weaker division this season than the ACC Coastal. And while Florida's overall SOS is better than UNC's SOS, it's not as you imply a big gap -- Florida was No. 29 and UNC No. 43.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

[budwom]

I fully expect unc will beat Clemson. Having said that, I don't see them ascending enough to make the playoffs , but they could.

As far as Alabama losing to Florida: I see absolutely zero chance of this happening unless Alabama implodes. Florida's offense is simply a mess right now.

[84crazy]

Are you suggesting that there are only 4 real participants in the college football post-season?

Not in the least! I'm saying the need for football games for advertising revenue has led to so many bowl games they can't even find teams with winning records to put them in. So basically you're rewarded for playing any level of football because ads can be sold. TV tends to overdue a good thing by taking it to excess

[rasputin]

I don't know if this has been mentioned previously, but the speculation from last week that our bowl opponent would be Missouri is now over. Mizzou has decided not to participate in a bowl game.

[Highlander]

Really? Notre Dame was never 11-1 ... they were 10-1 before the Stanford game.

So you are counting on SEC bias ... a two-loss SEC team that had to go overtime to beat Florida Atlantic, that only beat East Carolina on a fluke play and just got killed by FSU in the last week of the regular season gets in?

And while Florida's TWO losses are better than UNC's ONE loss, it's hard to say the same about their wins. They have one quality win (over Ole Miss). The rest of their record is drek -- and the SEC East is a far weaker division this season than the ACC Coastal.

Essentially, yes. SEC bias and strength of schedule, both of which work in Florida's favor. As you noted, Florida has one more quality win, and UNC's one loss came to the last place team in Florida's division. I also think winning the SEC East still carries more weight (rightly or wrongly) in CFB than winning the ACC Coastal.

As for the ACC Coastal vs. the SEC East, their records against the top 25 and overall W/L totals are almost identical (ACC has a few more overall wins, SEC has more T25 wins), so I think it is a stretch to say the SEC east is "far weaker" than the ACC Coastal. But it's very tough to compare conference relative strengths IMO because it comes down to what are you measuring - OOC strength, conference strength, # of quality teams, or # of "above average teams"?

I also think this is moot, as there is no way both UNC and Florida win this weekend.

[Troublemaker]

Clemson is only 5-pt favorites over UNC right now. Will be verrry interesting if they lose. I guess if you're OSU, you're rooting for UNC to win a close one against Clemson and for Michigan St to blowout Iowa.

Bama is 17-pt favorites over Florida.

[OldPhiKap]

SI has us in the Belk Bowl v. Miss. St.

And for the record, I do NOT need more cowbell.

[sagegrouse]

Here's my prediction: If either Alabama or Clemson lose, the Big Ten will get two slots -- the conference champion plus Ohio State. Reasoning? In the cases cited, there are either four or five teams with one or fewer losses, and Ohio State will get the nod over a one-loss UNC or a two-loss Alabama.

[Troublemaker]

Here's my prediction: If either Alabama or Clemson lose, the Big Ten will get two slots -- the conference champion plus Ohio State. Reasoning? In the cases cited, there are either four or five teams with one or fewer losses, and Ohio State will get the nod over a one-loss UNC or a two-loss Alabama.

Scuttlebutt is that Stanford would jump OSU (http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14261790/ohio-state-buckeyes-test-value-not-having-conference-title) despite being a 2-loss team. So, OSU would need Bama or Clemson to lose (realistically, Clemson), Stanford to lose, and for good measure, they should hope MSU (the team that beat OSU) wins emphatically against Iowa.

I don't follow college football closely, but apparently OSU's schedule is a problem. Their only impressive win was this past weekend at Michigan. Stanford has played a much tougher schedule.

[SCMatt33]

Not good news for Carolina being left down at 10 behind FSU and ND. They'd have to jump 6 spots to get in which seems like a tall order, especially with Ohio State 4 spots ahead of them and sitting at home unable to lose. I would think that they'll need both Bama and Stanford to lose to have any chance. That would open up a spot for them and one for Ohio State to both jump in.

[Olympic Fan]

Not good news for Carolina being left down at 10 behind FSU and ND. They'd have to jump 6 spots to get in which seems like a tall order, especially with Ohio State 4 spots ahead of them and sitting at home unable to lose. I would think that they'll need both Bama and Stanford to lose to have any chance. That would open up a spot for them and one for Ohio State to both jump in.

Actually, I think UNC could jump FSU, Notre Dame AND Ohio State with a win over Clemson -- plus they would jump the loser of Michigan State-Iowa. Winning a conference championship would be a big deal to the committee -- and UNC would have a title, while none of those three would have one.

The team UNC really has to worry about is Stanford. If Stanford beats Southern Cal for the Pac 12 championship, they might get a playoff spot ahead of UNC. It would be a tough call -- both would be conference champs, UNC would have a slightly better record (12-1 vs. 11-2), but Stanford would have a much better strength of schedule -- and their two losses were to top 15 teams (Northwestern and Oregon), while UNC's loss was to a bad SEC team.

The ESPN talking heads all seemed to think Stanford would be ahead of UNC in that scenario. Don't know how much I trust the talking heads -- but if I was UNC, I'd be pulling hard for Stanford to lose to Southern Cal.

I'll go on record as predicting that the four finalists will be conference champions ... no Ohio State (or no second Big Ten team) and no Notre Dame.

If Clemson wins (as I expect), they have to stay ahead of Alabama -- their last opponent is ranked higher than Bama's opponent. And, Highlander, no way Florida jumps from No. 18 to the top four -- even by beating Alabama.

[brevity]

I'll go on record as predicting that the four finalists will be conference champions ... no Ohio State (or no second Big Ten team) and no Notre Dame.

I feel like you and I both wrote about this at length in the Other People's Football (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36396-Other-People-s-Football-(2015-edition)&p=841643#post841643) thread a few days ago, and I applaud your patience in transferring your arguments to this new and unnecessary venue. I lack such patience and am loath to repeat myself.

So instead I wanted to focus on the above prediction, which seems likely to happen, but becomes problematic if Clemson, Alabama, and Iowa all lose. (Let's say Stanford wins.) In that event, the power conference champions will be current #3 Oklahoma (Big XII), #5 Michigan State (Big Ten), #7 Stanford (Pac-12), #10 North Carolina (ACC), and #18 Florida (SEC). I agree that UNC would pass #9 FSU and #8 Notre Dame, but under these circumstances, I disagree that they would pass #6 Ohio State.

The two main arguments against Ohio State are that they (1) will not play for a conference championship, and (2) shouldn't be picked before the team that beat them, Michigan State. But in the above scenario, they suddenly look better than the ACC and SEC champs, and can still be picked after Michigan State:

1. Michigan State
2. Oklahoma
3. Stanford
4. Ohio State

To show how fragile that #4 slot can be, if Clemson and Alabama lose, but Iowa wins, I think Ohio State is out.

1. Oklahoma
2. Iowa
3. Stanford
4. North Carolina

Seems like Stanford is probably in if either Clemson or Alabama loses.

[BigWayne]

ND at 8 and FSU at number 9 are looking pretty good to make NY6 bowls along with Clemson. If UNC manages to barely beat Clemson, it's conceivable all 4 of these teams make NY6 bowls. ACC might not have enough teams to fill all the lower slots.*

* - Currently there are 75 teams eligible for 80 spots. There are 3 teams that can still get to 6-6, but are heavy underdogs this weekend.
As many as five 5-7 teams will get in on APR rankings. Nebraska, Vanderbilt, Boston College, and GaTech are I think the highest APR rated 5-7 teams.

[nocilla]

Not quite true ... UNC is 11-1 at the moment ... Notre Dame has finished at 10-2. If UNC beats Clemson (which beat Notre Dame) they are at 12-1. Heck, even if they lose to Clemson, they finish with a better record than Notre Dame (11-2 vs 10-2).



Well with 2 FCS wins, UNC is really only 10-1 and would be 10-2 with a loss to Clemson.

[tux]

Actually, I think UNC could jump FSU, Notre Dame AND Ohio State with a win over Clemson -- plus they would jump the loser of Michigan State-Iowa. Winning a conference championship would be a big deal to the committee -- and UNC would have a title, while none of those three would have one.

The team UNC really has to worry about is Stanford. If Stanford beats Southern Cal for the Pac 12 championship, they might get a playoff spot ahead of UNC. It would be a tough call -- both would be conference champs, UNC would have a slightly better record (12-1 vs. 11-2), but Stanford would have a much better strength of schedule -- and their two losses were to top 15 teams (Northwestern and Oregon), while UNC's loss was to a bad SEC team.

The ESPN talking heads all seemed to think Stanford would be ahead of UNC in that scenario. Don't know how much I trust the talking heads -- but if I was UNC, I'd be pulling hard for Stanford to lose to Southern Cal.

I'll go on record as predicting that the four finalists will be conference champions ... no Ohio State (or no second Big Ten team) and no Notre Dame.

If Clemson wins (as I expect), they have to stay ahead of Alabama -- their last opponent is ranked higher than Bama's opponent. And, Highlander, no way Florida jumps from No. 18 to the top four -- even by beating Alabama.


I agree with your prediction about the four finalists being conference champions. And that's how it should be! I understand the arguments for how Clemson could lose a close game to UNC and still make the top-4 over UNC, but on some level that's kinda crazy. We had human polls, then we replaced them with computers, and now we're back to humans. (But it's a "distinguished" panel, so what could go wrong? ;)

Here's my recipe for college football:
1. Big-12 gets a championship game
2. Playoff expanded to 8 teams
3. Power-5 conference champs get automatic slots
4. Committee picks 3 at-large, and seeds the bracket
5. Highest ranked non-power-5 team gets in if ranked in the top-10 (or top-15, maybe)
6. Quarterfinals played on home field of higher seeded team in early December
7. Winners move on with semis/finals organized the same way as they currently are (as Jan bowls)
8. Quarterfinals losers eligible for other Dec/Jan bowl games
9. Every team still plays 12 regular season games, but conferences with a championship game play 11 scheduled games up to the weekend before Thanksgiving. Then, the two division winners face off in the conference championship game on Thanksgiving weekend at a neutral site, and the other teams match up against their cross-division counterpart. Home/away alternate between divisions from year to year. So, for example, UNC-Clemson would have played in Charlotte last weekend and the other ACC games would have been:

2. FSU vs Pitt
3. Louisville vs Miami
4. NC State vs Duke
5. Syracuse vs VT
6. Wake vs UVA
7. BC vs GT

So everyone, including the division winners, play just 12 games before the playoff. I think this makes it fair across the board, as no team is getting an extra game to add/subtract from their resume...

[CameronBornAndBred]

ESPN's ACC blog crew ships us off to Detroit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/88903/acc-week-13-bowl-projections-a-belk-bowl-sendoff-for-frank-beamer

[RepoMan]

In a game against Minnesota: http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/127808/big-ten-bowl-projections-week-13-consolation-prizes-could-be-sweet

Frankly, while not a top-notch game, I would love to end with a win, and we should be that team.

[asbcheeks]

ESPN's ACC blog crew ships us off to Detroit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/88903/acc-week-13-bowl-projections-a-belk-bowl-sendoff-for-frank-beamer

He also leaves Shreveport without an ACC team. I was under the impression that if there aren't enough bowl-eligible ACC teams to go around, then Quick Lane would be the first bowl off the table. Is that not right?

[Olympic Fan]

So instead I wanted to focus on the above prediction, which seems likely to happen, but becomes problematic if Clemson, Alabama, and Iowa all lose. (Let's say Stanford wins.) In that event, the power conference champions will be current #3 Oklahoma (Big XII), #5 Michigan State (Big Ten), #7 Stanford (Pac-12), #10 North Carolina (ACC), and #18 Florida (SEC). I agree that UNC would pass #9 FSU and #8 Notre Dame, but under these circumstances, I disagree that they would pass #6 Ohio State.

The two main arguments against Ohio State are that they (1) will not play for a conference championship, and (2) shouldn't be picked before the team that beat them, Michigan State. But in the above scenario, they suddenly look better than the ACC and SEC champs, and can still be picked after Michigan State:
.

People continue to get this wrong.

It has nothing to do with whether or not you PLAY for a conference championship. It has everything to do with whether or not you WIN a conference championship. That is the first criteria for the committee selection and it played out last year when the conference left out was the Big 12, which had co-champs. This year, Oklahoma won the Big 12 outright and are a lock even without the playoff game. Last year, Ohio State won the Big Ten title (in an impressive rout of Wisconsin) ... they year, they can't win the championship.

It would take extraordinary circumstances for a non-conference champion to make the Final Four. Notre Dame, which is kind of a special case because they don't have a conference, might do it -- we've yet to see a scenario where they can argue to be one of the nation's top four teams.

Brevity, you and I disagree about Ohio State. I hope you are right -- I'd hate to see the Cheats in the playoffs. I THINK we have nothing to worry about -- I expect Clemson to win Saturday (just check the head-to-head results against common opponents -- UNC was better against Wake ... Clemson had the edge against NC State, Georgia Tech and, of course, South Carolina). But if the worst happens and UNC beats Clemson to win the ACC championship, I have no doubt that the 12-1 ACC champs would move ahead of the 11-1 non-champs from Ohio State. And it's not like Ohio State has a big strength-of-schedule edge on UNC. They beat Michigan -- and in this scenario, UNC would have beaten No. 1 Clemson, which is a much better win that anything the Buckeyes have on their resume. What's Ohio State's next best win? Penn State? Pitt is better than Penn State. Ohio State really has a lame schedule -- they are 35th, just ahead of UNC's 44th (and that will rise after they face Clemson):

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Sagarin actually has Ohio State at 61 SOS, and UNC at 63 ... by that measure, UNC's schedule will be better than Ohio State's after Saturday's game.

http://www.fbschedules.com/2015/12/2015-college-football-strength-of-schedule-rankings-dec-1/

And it helps that UNJC's loss was very early (the first game), while Ohio State's (although a better loss) was late -0- the next to last game for the Buckeyes.

I argue that Stanford, not Ohio State, is the main threat to UNC moving into the playoffs -- provided the Cardinal beats USC to win the Pac 12 title. I shudder to think what happens if the Trojans and the Cheats win Saturday.

[brevity]

People continue to get this wrong.

It has nothing to do with whether or not you PLAY for a conference championship. It has everything to do with whether or not you WIN a conference championship. That is the first criteria for the committee selection and it played out last year when the conference left out was the Big 12, which had co-champs. This year, Oklahoma won the Big 12 outright and are a lock even without the playoff game. Last year, Ohio State won the Big Ten title (in an impressive rout of Wisconsin) ... they year, they can't win the championship.

Ah, sorry that I pressed that button. My word choice was deliberate, but I can't think of a safer way to say it.

I was trying to point out how Ohio State's inability to play for a conference championship might be viewed by the CFP committee when compared to teams that played in one and lost: Clemson, Alabama, and especially Iowa or Michigan State. I wasn't trying to make any statement about the Big XII, this year or last.

All in all, this is a fairly minor point that only comes into play if the lower-ranked teams become conference champions.

[SoCalDukeFan]

9. Every team still plays 12 regular season games, but conferences with a championship game play 11 scheduled games up to the weekend before Thanksgiving. Then, the two division winners face off in the conference championship game on Thanksgiving weekend at a neutral site, and the other teams match up against their cross-division counterpart. Home/away alternate between divisions from year to year. So, for example, UNC-Clemson would have played in Charlotte last weekend and the other ACC games would have been:

2. FSU vs Pitt
3. Louisville vs Miami
4. NC State vs Duke
5. Syracuse vs VT
6. Wake vs UVA
7. BC vs GT

So everyone, including the division winners, play just 12 games before the playoff. I think this makes it fair across the board, as no team is getting an extra game to add/subtract from their resume...

I think this is very creative but I see two issues - one team in the conference championship game would lose a home game. Maybe you could fix that by having the championship game a home game for one of the teams and alternate like the other games. Which also creates a problem as I think the conferences like being able to use the championship game as a big revenue deal. Also, teams not in the championship game might have to play each other twice.

SoCal

[JasonEvans]

Question -- if Clemson loses to UNC in a well-played and really competitive game, maybe in OT on 2-point conversion or some other kind of fluke play, would there be any argument for still allowing Clemson to make the CFP? They'd only have one loss and would have impressive wins over ND and FSU (both top 10 in the playoff rankings). Would they really be undeserving of a bid?

Of course, the counter-question is how to you take Clemson and not take UNC (which just beat them and would have an identical record), but I think you can make a compelling case that the 2 wins over ND and FSU as well as the lone loss to UNC is more impressive than Carolina's body of work.

-Jason "I hope Clemson manhandles the Heels, but what do folks think about this scenario?" Evans

[tux]

I think this is very creative but I see two issues - one team in the conference championship game would lose a home game. Maybe you could fix that by having the championship game a home game for one of the teams and alternate like the other games. Which also creates a problem as I think the conferences like being able to use the championship game as a big revenue deal. Also, teams not in the championship game might have to play each other twice.

SoCal

Your first point is a bigger issue IMO. I wouldn't mind if a few teams had to play a conference opponent twice. After all, the championship game could be a rematch as well. Rematches are not that common in college football, but they do happen, and I think they can be really interesting games. It would also serve as a little "Atlantic vs Coastal Challenge", with some bragging rights on the line...

[tux]

Question -- if Clemson loses to UNC in a well-played and really competitive game, maybe in OT on 2-point conversion or some other kind of fluke play, would there be any argument for still allowing Clemson to make the CFP? They'd only have one loss and would have impressive wins over ND and FSU (both top 10 in the playoff rankings). Would they really be undeserving of a bid?

Of course, the counter-question is how to you take Clemson and not take UNC (which just beat them and would have an identical record), but I think you can make a compelling case that the 2 wins over ND and FSU as well as the lone loss to UNC is more impressive than Carolina's body of work.

-Jason "I hope Clemson manhandles the Heels, but what do folks think about this scenario?" Evans


That very well could happen if the game is close. I think it's even more likely that Alabama would get in with a loss to UF. UF is NOT getting in unless they beat Alabama 60-0, and maybe not even then. And the CFP committee is not leaving the SEC out of the playoff. So, Alabama is in regardless of what happens IMO.

I love that we now have a playoff, but I'm skeptical of the committee...

[budwom]

I am fearing (actually expecting) unc will beat CLemson...their offense has been on fire of late, and Clemson's defense has been dubious. It makes me sick to feel this way.

[BigWayne]

He also leaves Shreveport without an ACC team. I was under the impression that if there aren't enough bowl-eligible ACC teams to go around, then Quick Lane would be the first bowl off the table. Is that not right?
Most likely a moot point as BC and GT are likely to become eligible as 5-7 APR leading teams. Remember when we were thinking Duke might benefit from this rule a few years back?

[JasonEvans]

Most likely a moot point as BC and GT are likely to become eligible as 5-7 APR leading teams. Remember when we were thinking Duke might benefit from this rule a few years back?

I'm confused. Neither BC nor GT have 5-7 records, not even close. They are both 3-9.

The 5-7 teams with the highest APRs (http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14272580/three-sun-belt-schools-accept-bowl-bids-two-more-try-join-them) are Nebraska (985), Missouri and Kansas State (976), Minnesota and San Jose State (975), Illinois and Rice (973). Missouri said it would not accept a bowl bid, while the other schools said they would accept a bid.

[jimsumner]

The NCAA needs to find a way to prune some bowl games--at least five, IMO--before next season. Having 5-7 teams making a bowl game is ludicrous.

[OldPhiKap]

The NCAA needs to find a way to prune some bowl games--at least five, IMO--before next season. Having 5-7 teams making a bowl game is ludicrous.

A few weeks ago, when trying to find the date of the Shriveport bowl, I hit an article which basically stated they had a somewhat-disasterous sponsorship with Duck Commander and that they survived to this year. I cannot imagine they are alone in real financial struggles.

The free market may take care of this problem, sooner rather than later.

[BigWayne]

I'm confused. Neither BC nor GT have 5-7 records, not even close. They are both 3-9.

The 5-7 teams with the highest APRs (http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14272580/three-sun-belt-schools-accept-bowl-bids-two-more-try-join-them) are Nebraska (985), Missouri and Kansas State (976), Minnesota and San Jose State (975), Illinois and Rice (973). Missouri said it would not accept a bowl bid, while the other schools said they would accept a bid.

My bad, I was going by a list I found on Wikipedia and thought the teams they had listed were 5-7 teams.

[Wander]

Just wanted to point out that all the discussion about UNC having a chance to make the playoff proves that most of us were right about Duke's possible playoff chances a while back. Obviously, we all know that Duke is nowhere near good enough to be anywhere close to this discussion now. But the point was that a hypothetical 12-1 Duke team would have a chance to make the playoff, a point mocked by a bunch of people here yet clearly correct now.

The lesson in all this is just a warning for future seasons: teams are generally eliminated by "conventional wisdom" waaaaay too early in the season. Basically, no 1-loss power conference team is ever out of it until the very end of the season, and even 2-loss power conference teams are all theoretically alive through, say, October and possibly beyond depending on specific circumstances of that season.

[BigWayne]

The NCAA needs to find a way to prune some bowl games--at least five, IMO--before next season. Having 5-7 teams making a bowl game is ludicrous.

Having 5-7 teams in bowls will probably make it happen. The reason it got this way is because the low end conferences got tired of their teams getting bumped by P5 teams. They made deals with the new bowls like the Bahamas Bowl and Cure Bowl to get their teams slots. Some of these extra games are also a product of the TV deal frenzy of the last few years. If they have trouble selling ads, some of these games might go away.

[Pghdukie]

Call me old school, but 6-6 or even 7-5 teams shouldn't go to bowl games. Let alone 5-7 records. I admit it all about the $$$$$. But 40 bowls/80 teams ? Just my .01 worth.

[A-Tex Devil]

Late to party, but even as a card carrying Carolina-hater, I firmly believe they should get in if they beat Clemson and that the ACCCG should be a play in game no different than the Big Ten game. The one, strong, knock on UNC is that it hasn't beaten anyone at all this year. That's true. But if they beat Clemson, they will have the biggest win of anyone on the biggest stage. UNC needs to jump 6 teams to get in. Here are my thoughts on why it *should* happen if they win.

1. If they beat Clemson, they should jump all of Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida St. for obvious reasons

2. They should jump the loser of the Big Ten CG. If it's Mich. St., 1 loss champion gets in over 2 loss non-champion by default in my opinion. If it's Iowa, they are the same, essentially, but UNC is a conference champion.

3. If Stanford wins, too. Stanford lost 2 games. From my standpoint, it should be nigh impossible to get in a 4 team playoff with more than 1 loss when other 0 or 1 loss power 5 teams are available, regardless of whether you are a conference champion or not. I am in dwindling minority there, I realize, but 2 loss teams should need a near miracle to get into the playoff. In any event, setting that aside, if UNC beats Clemson, its SoS is going to jump up quite a lot, and I think the extra loss outweighs any strength of schedule difference should UNC actually beat Clemson.

4. The Ohio St. problem. Other than OU, all of the teams are being evaluated right now WITHOUT the benefit of the extra boost of being a conference champion. If UNC wins, and the committee pays as much lip service to conference champions as they did last year, UNC should get in over Ohio St. Ohio St. has one good win all year when you go back and look. So similarly, being conference champion should outweigh the difference in strength of schedule, which may not be all that marked after the UNC/Clemson game.

I feel dirty writing all of that, but there it is. That said, UNC dug its grave. It is probably going to pay for doubling up on FCS teams this year much like Baylor paid last year. If you want to cost in the non-con, you better not lose once, that's for sure.

Would love to see more black and white requirements where the committee makes fewer judgment calls, and couple it with playing 2 Power 5 non-cons a year, but it would never happen.

[budwom]

word seems to be the Pinstripe Bowl is making a push for Duke...we might need some help from the ACC, which is always a dubious proposition.

[Devilsforlife]

word seems to be the Pinstripe Bowl is making a push for Duke...we might need some help from the ACC, which is always a dubious proposition.

After the Miami debacle, the conference owes it to us.

[Olympic Fan]

We won't find out for sure until about 2-3 p.m. Sunday afternoon, but looking more and more like Pinstripe Bowl -- against either Indiana (great offense, no defense) or Wisconsin

With Clemson's win, it looks like FSU to the Peach Bowl and UNC drops to the Russell Bowl.

Virginia Tech to the Belk Bowl (against Arkansas?)

That's all I'm hearing at the moment.

[YmoBeThere]

We won't find out for sure until about 2-3 p.m. Sunday afternoon, but looking more and more like Pinstripe Bowl -- against either Indiana (great offense, no defense) or Wisconsin

With Clemson's win, it looks like FSU to the Peach Bowl and UNC drops to the Russell Bowl.

Virginia Tech to the Belk Bowl (against Arkansas?)

That's all I'm hearing at the moment.

6-6 Indiana or 9-3 Wisconsin seems quite a disparity in quality. Are the latter seeking some measure of revenge for what happened on the hardwood?

[Indoor66]

We won't find out for sure until about 2-3 p.m. Sunday afternoon, but looking more and more like Pinstripe Bowl -- against either Indiana (great offense, no defense) or Wisconsin

With Clemson's win, it looks like FSU to the Peach Bowl and unc drops to the Toilet Bowl.

Virginia Tech to the Belk Bowl (against Arkansas?)

That's all I'm hearing at the moment.

There, I fixed it for you. :cool:

[luburch]

6-6 Indiana or 9-3 Wisconsin seems quite a disparity in quality. Are the latter seeking some measure of revenge for what happened on the hardwood?

FWIW Indiana had OSU, Michigan, and Iowa all on the ropes. Should have beaten Michigan, likely would have beaten OSU if their starting RB and QB both don't leave the game with injury.

[Devilsforlife]

FWIW Indiana had OSU, Michigan, and Iowa all on the ropes. Should have beaten Michigan, likely would have beaten OSU if their starting RB and QB both don't leave the game with injury.

They also lost at home to an awful Rutgers team and were blown out by a mediocre Penn St. squad on the road. Very hot and cold team. If we play them, I'd expect a 55-48 type shootout.

[luburch]

They also lost at home to an awful Rutgers team and were blown out by a mediocre Penn St. squad on the road. Very hot and cold team. If we play them, I'd expect a 55-48 type shootout.

They were up 21 points to Rutgers late in the game and somehow managed to lose. It was hideous. The game they lost to PSU was also on the road without their 1st or 2nd string QB and 1st string RB.

Not saying Indiana is a juggernaut but they're more of an 8-4 team than a 6-6 team. Despite what their record is. As was said above, great offensive, mediocre rush defense, non existent pass defense.

[Olympic Fan]

They were up 21 points to Rutgers late in the game and somehow managed to lose. It was hideous. The game they lost to PSU was also on the road without their 1st or 2nd string QB and 1st string RB.

Not saying Indiana is a juggernaut but they're more of an 8-4 team than a 6-6 team. Despite what their record is. As was said above, great offensive, mediocre rush defense, non existent pass defense.

Just like us ...

Just to be clear -- the stuff I posted about the Pinstripe is just gossip I picked up at the basketball game Saturday (albeit from a couple of usually plugged in sources). I wouldn't start making hotel reservations yet. And the stuff about our opponent is less than that.

Anyway, we know for sure in a couple of hours.

[Bob Green]

Anyway, we know for sure in a couple of hours.

I'm anxiously awaiting the announcement. For purely selfish reasons, if we do not get the Pinstripe, I hope we get the Independence Bowl as I have a personal schedule issue that will prevent me from camping out in front of the TV during the Military Bowl.

[jimsumner]

I'm anxiously awaiting the announcement. For purely selfish reasons, if we do not get the Pinstripe, I hope we get the Independence Bowl as I have a personal schedule issue that will prevent me from camping out in front of the TV during the Military Bowl.

With all due respect Bob, every fall over a hundred college football teams begin the season with one, unified thought--anything but Shreveport.

[YmoBeThere]

With all due respect Bob, every fall over a hundred college football teams begin the season with one, unified thought--anything but Shreveport.

And this fan looks at a map and says, "Shreveport is actually closer than El Paso..." :) (I'm in San Antonio)

[Bob Green]

With all due respect Bob, every fall over a hundred college football teams begin the season with one, unified thought--anything but Shreveport.

I understand and agree 99.9 percent of the time. Unfortunately, I'm forced to be selfish this year. Hopefully, we get the Pinstripe so my selfishness can become moot.

[blazindw]

I understand and agree 99.9 percent of the time. Unfortunately, I'm forced to be selfish this year. Hopefully, we get the Pinstripe so my selfishness can become moot.

I'm with you Bob. I'm spending the holidays in DFW with my family so an Independence Bowl bid means I can go. Also, I could do Military since I will have returned to DC by then. All in all, I'm hoping that we get into a bowl that's a winnable game. I want our seniors to have that feeling of going out on top.

[dukebsbll14]

Joe Giglio of the News and Observer seems to be providing some good insight into this: https://twitter.com/jwgiglio

From what he is saying, Duke to the Pinstripe Bowl would mean knocking Pitt out of a Tier 1 bowl, which according to the ACC rules an 8 win team can't be kept out of Tier 1. But apparently the ACC officials are okay with it?

His official stance appears to be that no one knows what's happening, but someone's fanbase will be unhappy.

[Olympic Fan]

Joe Giglio of the News and Observer seems to be providing some good insight into this: https://twitter.com/jwgiglio

From what he is saying, Duke to the Pinstripe Bowl would mean knocking Pitt out of a Tier 1 bowl, which according to the ACC rules an 8 win team can't be kept out of Tier 1. But apparently the ACC officials are okay with it?

His official stance appears to be that no one knows what's happening, but someone's fanbase will be unhappy.

I've never seen or heard of the ACC rule that an eight-win team could be knocked out of a Tier One Bowl. I just rechecked the ACC bowl page in the media guide and there is no mention of an 8-win rule. There used to be a one-win rule (there still is, but it only applies to Notre Dame, if the Irish take an ACC bowl), but even under that rule, 7-5 Duke could jump 8-4 Pitt.

Not saying it will happen ... but that appears to be the gossip at the moment. And there do seem to be hints that Pitt I going to the Military Bowl.

I do find that surprising.

[MarkD83]

If that 8 win rule is true than I just became even more upset about the Miami game

[Olympic Fan]

I just realized that if 8-win Pitt is knocked out of the Tier One, it won't be 7-5 (officially) Duke that does the knocking ... it's a virtual lock that 6-6 Virginia Tech gets the Tier One Belk Bowl.

Under the old one-win rule, that would have been impossible, but, as I said, that rule now only applies to Notre Dame.

[dukebsbll14]

I've never seen or heard of the ACC rule that an eight-win team could be knocked out of a Tier One Bowl. I just rechecked the ACC bowl page in the media guide and there is no mention of an 8-win rule. There used to be a one-win rule (there still is, but it only applies to Notre Dame, if the Irish take an ACC bowl), but even under that rule, 7-5 Duke could jump 8-4 Pitt.

Not saying it will happen ... but that appears to be the gossip at the moment. And there do seem to be hints that Pitt I going to the Military Bowl.

I do find that surprising.

Huh. I've seen several media members throw around the term "protected" in reference to Miami and Pitt being Tier 1 teams, so I never actually took the time to fact check it. But before the Duke-Pinstripe talk began about a week ago, both Pitt/Miami were figured to be locks for tier 1 because they had 8 wins. Kevin White effect?

Anyways, sorry not sorry to Pitt and Miami that people just like us more.

[OldPhiKap]

Duke has such.a large alum presence in the Tri-State, I would think that we are attractive to the Pinstripe. And we travelled relatively well the last three bowl games, even north Juarez last year.

[mbird30]

According to 247 sports duke is going to play Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl. Also this article http://www.crimsonquarry.com/2015/12/6/9856674/hoosiers-heading-to-pinstripe-bowl-will-face-duke

[devildeac]

According to 247 sports duke is going to play Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl. Also this article http://www.crimsonquarry.com/2015/12/6/9856674/hoosiers-heading-to-pinstripe-bowl-will-face-duke

From the twitterverse:


"Adam Rowe
‏@BlueDevilLair
According to sources, Duke will play in the Pinstripe Bowl on December 26th against Indiana http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/Duke-to-play-in-Pinstripe-Bowl-on-December-26th-against-Indiana-41783972 … via @247Sports"

[BigWayne]

Huh. I've seen several media members throw around the term "protected" in reference to Miami and Pitt being Tier 1 teams, so I never actually took the time to fact check it. But before the Duke-Pinstripe talk began about a week ago, both Pitt/Miami were figured to be locks for tier 1 because they had 8 wins. Kevin White effect?

Anyways, sorry not sorry to Pitt and Miami that people just like us more.

The whole Tier system is not to group the teams by merit. The tier system is for grouping the picking order of the bowls. The tier process allows all bowls in a tier to state their preference. If all of them want different teams, then everybody is set. If two bowls at the same tier want the same team, the league helps arbitrate a negotiation. Other than the one win rule related to ND, the ACC does not have rules for picking. If the Russell Bowl really wanted VT, they could have picked them.

[wilson]

Duke Athletics' official Facebook page has confirmed the Pinstripe Bowl, but no word yet on our opponent.