Duke a Trendy Playoff Sleeper?

[dukeclassof2016]

Rather than debate the merits of this claim, how about we revel in the fact that Coach Cutcliffe has built us up to the point where such claims are even made?!

"Duke's case for making the College Football Playoff should have ended, theoretically, when it lost at home to Northwestern.

Only now Northwestern sits at 4-0 with wins over the Blue Devils and Stanford. It's ranked No. 16 in the country. If the Wildcats keep winning—not necessarily running the table but playing like a team it's OK to have lost to—the Blue Devils can still make a run.

And based on their upcoming schedule, they might.

Duke beat Georgia Tech convincingly last week and has no ranked teams left on the schedule. Here is all that stands between it and 11-1:

Oct. 3: vs. Boston College
Oct. 10: at Army
Oct. 17: Bye
Oct. 24: at Virginia Tech
Oct. 31: vs. Miami
Nov. 7: at North Carolina
Nov. 14: vs. Pittsburgh
Nov. 21: at Virginia
Nov. 28: at Wake Forest

If the Blue Devils sweep their October games, as this bold prediction thinks they will, it won't take long to start piecing their chances together.

Even with a poor strength of schedule, the Dukies have what (hopefully) counts as a quality loss and a chance to play Florida State or Clemson on a neutral field in the ACC title game. If they beat Virginia Tech and Miami, they'll have momentum, too.

I don't think Duke will make the playoff, but I do think we might start talking about it. And I think that conversation starts in October."

Read more here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2573568-bold-college-football-predictions-for-month-of-october/page/4

[uh_no]

Rather than debate the merits of this claim, how about we revel in the fact that Coach Cutcliffe has built us up to the point where such claims are even made?!

"Duke's case for making the College Football Playoff should have ended, theoretically, when it lost at home to Northwestern.

Only now Northwestern sits at 4-0 with wins over the Blue Devils and Stanford. It's ranked No. 16 in the country. If the Wildcats keep winning—not necessarily running the table but playing like a team it's OK to have lost to—the Blue Devils can still make a run.

And based on their upcoming schedule, they might.

Duke beat Georgia Tech convincingly last week and has no ranked teams left on the schedule. Here is all that stands between it and 11-1:

Oct. 3: vs. Boston College
Oct. 10: at Army
Oct. 17: Bye
Oct. 24: at Virginia Tech
Oct. 31: vs. Miami
Nov. 7: at North Carolina
Nov. 14: vs. Pittsburgh
Nov. 21: at Virginia
Nov. 28: at Wake Forest

If the Blue Devils sweep their October games, as this bold prediction thinks they will, it won't take long to start piecing their chances together.

Even with a poor strength of schedule, the Dukies have what (hopefully) counts as a quality loss and a chance to play Florida State or Clemson on a neutral field in the ACC title game. If they beat Virginia Tech and Miami, they'll have momentum, too.

I don't think Duke will make the playoff, but I do think we might start talking about it. And I think that conversation starts in October."

Read more here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2573568-bold-college-football-predictions-for-month-of-october/page/4

of the things i thought i might see on DBR today, this was not one of them.

we would be behind literally every non-acc big-5 1-loss team. the chances of there NOT being 4 of them is slim. I also would not bet much us on us winning the ACC title game. maybe if the offense improves meteorically, possibly....but there STILL would be too many 1-loss teams that didn't play our cupcake laden schedule.

[JasonEvans]

Oct. 3: vs. Boston College
Oct. 10: at Army
Oct. 17: Bye
Oct. 24: at Virginia Tech
Oct. 31: vs. Miami

If the Blue Devils sweep their October games, as this bold prediction thinks they will, it won't take long to start piecing their chances together.

I don't know much, but Duke will certainly have a tough time getting a win versus Bye. I am wracking my brain, but I can't recall the last time Bye lost... ever!

-Jason "I bet I get negative rep points for this :) " Evans

[Wander]

I mean, fine, but any BCS team that is not 0-4 or 1-3 at this point can technically think the same thing. It would have been a fun thing to think about had we beaten Northwestern, but no.

I'll say this. This is as good a year as any for us to win the ACC, as FSU and Clemson look good but not unbeatable.

[devildeac]

I don't know much, but Duke will certainly have a tough time getting a win versus Bye. I am wracking my brain, but I can't recall the last time Bye lost... ever!

-Jason "I bet I get negative rep points for this :) " Evans

Don't tempt us...

:p

That being said, I commented on unc's schedule recently and figured that "the c*rolina way" would dictate they count their bye week as a W:rolleyes: .

From post #2 here:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36494-ACC-announces-game-times-for-10-10

"I note that unc does not have a game that day. Based on the c*rolina way, do they get to count that as a win?:rolleyes:"

[CameronBlue]

Trendy? In the way that all the cool people in the insane asylum hang out at the water cooler? Sure. But for those outside that little culture club a trendier pick would be Cash for the Heisman. C'est la musique à mes oreilles homme! Regardez ce que voulez-vous parler, ce que vous parler, de quoi Parlez-vous?

[Olympic Fan]

This is one of the silliest threads I've ever seen on DBR.

Duke -- playing the schedule Duke plays -- has zero chance of earning a spot in the Final Four -- even with an 12-1 finish.

In fact, the way the national perception of the ACC is now, it's not certain that FSU or Clemson could make it with a 12-1 finish.

Next year, when Duke plays at Northwestern and at Notre Dame OOC and Louisville in conference, it might be possible. Not this year.

[brevity]

In fact, the way the national perception of the ACC is now, it's not certain that FSU or Clemson could make it with a 12-1 finish.

Most likely playoff scenarios, knowing only what we know now:

1. Big Ten champion (Ohio State/Michigan State), SEC champion (Ole Miss/LSU/Georgia), Big 12 champion (TCU/Baylor), Pac-12 champion (UCLA/Utah).
2. Three of the above, Notre Dame.
3. SEC champion, two of the above, best SEC West team not already invited.
4. Three of the above, undefeated ACC champion.
5. SEC champion, two of the above, SEC East team if its only loss is in the SEC title game.
6. Big Ten champion, two of the above, second-place Big 10 team.
7. Pac-12 champion, two of the above, second-place Pac-12 team.
8. Big 12 champion, two of the above, second-place Big 12 team.
9. Three of the above, undefeated team outside Power 5 conferences.
10. Three of the above, one-loss ACC champion.

That's ten possibilities, in honor of the Big 12.

[Olympic Fan]

Most likely playoff scenarios, knowing only what we know now:

1. Big Ten champion (Ohio State/Michigan State), SEC champion (Ole Miss/LSU/Georgia), Big 12 champion (TCU/Baylor), Pac-12 champion (UCLA/Utah).
2. Three of the above, Notre Dame.
3. SEC champion, two of the above, best SEC West team not already invited.
4. Three of the above, undefeated ACC champion.
5. SEC champion, two of the above, SEC East team if its only loss is in the SEC title game.
6. Big Ten champion, two of the above, second-place Big 10 team.
7. Pac-12 champion, two of the above, second-place Pac-12 team.
8. Big 12 champion, two of the above, second-place Big 12 team.
9. Three of the above, undefeated team outside Power 5 conferences.
10. Three of the above, one-loss ACC champion.

That's ten possibilities, in honor of the Big 12.

Let me make this point: I believe that any undefeated power five team -- whether ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Pac 12 or Big 12 -- will be included. There won't be more than one or two undefeateds.

If it does come down to one-loss teams, then the ACC may b in real trouble. If FSU/Clemson want to be in the playoffs, they better go 13-0 (Obviously, only one of them can). A 12-1 FSU or Clemson would need a LOT of help to make the Final Four. In view of the SEC prejudice out there, they could even lose out to a 12-2 SEC team ... say Alabama loses to Georgia today, then runs the table.

Next year, Duke -- with its improved schedule -- could make the playoffs at 13-0 ...

[uh_no]

Next year, Duke -- with its improved schedule -- could make the playoffs at 13-0 ...

We are the music-makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
-Willy Wonka

[wilson]

Next year, Duke -- with its improved schedule -- could make the playoffs at 13-0 ...


We are the music-makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
-Willy WonkaI'll have what [he]'s having.
-diner lady in When Harry Met Sally

[Mabdul Doobakus]

It's hard for me to entertain any such talk until we demonstrate any kind of offense.

The defense played out of its mind against Georgia Tech and Edwards had that kickoff return TD, and so we managed a win--barely--against maybe the best team left on our schedule. But without any consistent offense we could lose to literally anyone and it would not surprise me. Any talk of 12-1 is insane to me right now.

[Acymetric]

I think you guys are missing the point. The key here is that if we continue to win, especially towards the end of the season you may start to hear analysts talk about whether Duke deserves a playoff spot if we were to win out and win the ACC championship. Even if they ultimately agree that the answer is no (which would be likely) that is huge. Of course we've got a ways to go before any of this starts falling into place and will probably need to find some answers on offense but we made it through probably the toughest 3 game stretch of the season 2-1, I like our path through the rest of the regular season.

[uh_no]

I think you guys are missing the point. The key here is that if we continue to win, especially towards the end of the season you may start to hear analysts talk about whether Duke deserves a playoff spot if we were to win out and win the ACC championship. Even if they ultimately agree that the answer is no (which would be likely) that is huge. Of course we've got a ways to go before any of this starts falling into place and will probably need to find some answers on offense but we made it through probably the toughest 3 game stretch of the season 2-1, I like our path through the rest of the regular season.

they were already doing that last year and then we dumped the bucket two weeks in a row.

almost bad as being typically terrible, is being hyped up and choking. let's leave that up to the guys down the road and not toot our horn before our time.

[Edouble]

We are the music-makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.
-Willy Wonka

We are the hungry ones. Your torments call us like dogs in the night. And we do feed, and feed well.
-Mr. Dark

[Olympic Fan]

they were already doing that last year and then we dumped the bucket two weeks in a row.

almost bad as being typically terrible, is being hyped up and choking. let's leave that up to the guys down the road and not toot our horn before our time.

Who was talking about Duke last year?

I think I follow the NCAA selection talk as much as anybody and I don't recall Duke's ever mentioned by a credible commentator. Last year we had Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, the two Mississippi schools, TCU, Baylor, a couple of West Coast schools, Michigan State and Ohio State that were in the conversion. Three or four other major powers were mentioned early in the process -- but never Duke. At no point were we ever a team anybody talked about. We peaked at No. 19 in the polls (just before the back to back losses to VPI and the Cheaters) -- that's hardly in the conversation.

And we're not going to be in the playoff discussion this season, even in the unlikely event if we do win out and shock a Clemson or an FSU in the ACC title game. We're just not in the national consciousness -- and there's nobody we could beat that would put us on the radar. Our schedule just isn't tough enough.

I did mention next season, not because I think it can happen, but we do get Notre Dame early and a win there ... coupled with a long winning streak to start the season, could at least put us in the national conversation. But I think we'd have to go 13-0 to have a chance to crack the top four. We're still a long, LONG way from being even a "trendy pick" for the playoffs.

But as much as I love the progress Cut has made, let's start knocking on the top 10 before we start talking about earning a playoff spot.

[Pghdukie]

I don't believe Committee will consider Duke viable for a playoff game, OR even a quality bowl game until WW is filling up with butts in the seats. A team that does not draw very well gets the short stick.
Just my .02 worth

[hallcity]

I don't believe Committee will consider Duke viable for a playoff game, OR even a quality bowl game until WW is filling up with butts in the seats. A team that does not draw very well gets the short stick.
Just my .02 worth

Miami has always had problems putting butts in seats and they've been to plenty of fine bowl, just not lately. Still, I'd say the best that a 12-1 record would get Duke would be a Peach Bowl berth -- not that I think a 12-1 record is anything more than a pipe dream. Would an 11-2 record get Duke in the Peach Bowl if Clemson or FSU makes the playoffs? That's a bit less implausible.

[Dukehky]

Better chance of the basketball team repeating than the football team making the playoff.

[grad_devil]

Better chance of the basketball team repeating than the football team making the playoff.

"So you're saying there's a chance..."

[AustinDevil]

Miami has always had problems putting butts in seats and they've been to plenty of fine bowl, just not lately. Still, I'd say the best that a 12-1 record would get Duke would be a Peach Bowl berth -- not that I think a 12-1 record is anything more than a pipe dream. Would an 11-2 record get Duke in the Peach Bowl if Clemson or FSU makes the playoffs? That's a bit less implausible.

A 12-1 Duke in the Peach-Fil-A, under current ACC process, would be a Duke that went 12-0 before losing the ACC Championship game, right? Because whether one-loss or three-, isn't the ACC Champion guaranteed at least the Orange Bowl?

[Olympic Fan]

A 12-1 Duke in the Peach-Fil-A, under current ACC process, would be a Duke that went 12-0 before losing the ACC Championship game, right? Because whether one-loss or three-, isn't the ACC Champion guaranteed at least the Orange Bowl?

Not this year -- the Orange Bowl is one of the semifinal bowls for the playoffs. The ACC champion is in the Chick-fil-A or Fiesta (unless the champion is in the playoff)

[johnb]

Rather than debate the merits of this claim, how about we revel in the fact that Coach Cutcliffe has built us up to the point where such claims are even made?!

"Duke's case for making the College Football Playoff should have ended, theoretically, when it lost at home to Northwestern.

Only now Northwestern sits at 4-0 with wins over the Blue Devils and Stanford. It's ranked No. 16 in the country. If the Wildcats keep winning—not necessarily running the table but playing like a team it's OK to have lost to—the Blue Devils can still make a run.

And based on their upcoming schedule, they might.

Duke beat Georgia Tech convincingly last week and has no ranked teams left on the schedule. Here is all that stands between it and 11-1:

Oct. 3: vs. Boston College
Oct. 10: at Army
Oct. 17: Bye
Oct. 24: at Virginia Tech
Oct. 31: vs. Miami
Nov. 7: at North Carolina
Nov. 14: vs. Pittsburgh
Nov. 21: at Virginia
Nov. 28: at Wake Forest

If the Blue Devils sweep their October games, as this bold prediction thinks they will, it won't take long to start piecing their chances together.

Even with a poor strength of schedule, the Dukies have what (hopefully) counts as a quality loss and a chance to play Florida State or Clemson on a neutral field in the ACC title game. If they beat Virginia Tech and Miami, they'll have momentum, too.

I don't think Duke will make the playoff, but I do think we might start talking about it. And I think that conversation starts in October."

Read more here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2573568-bold-college-football-predictions-for-month-of-october/page/4

As long as dukeclassof2016 isn't one of our players (and that none of the players start counting chickens), I don't see a problem with this thread. If we run the table, I can devise a scenario where we would at least be considered for the playoff. Being able to come up with a theoretical chance for the NC as late as October... awesome.

I can also imagine scenarios in which we lose or almost lose every single game on the schedule. None of these teams is a cupcake, starting with Army. As is obvious, it seems that offseason naysayers were right: it takes a toll to lose a starting qb and a couple of offensive stars who are now playing every Sunday. Otoh, these last couple of weeks were the strongest Duke defensive performances I've ever seen. Just awesome. I don't know how they'd do against top level offenses, but they sure look great against midlevel power offenses. May the games continue!

[toooskies]

I just want a bowl win, and getting into the playoff isn't going to get us one. Not with the offense playing the way it is.

Instead I'm actually hoping for some unexpected losses in the regular season so that we're not a massive underdog in our bowl game. We face enough post-season disadvantages as it is.

[killerleft]

I just want a bowl win, and getting into the playoff isn't going to get us one. Not with the offense playing the way it is.

Instead I'm actually hoping for some unexpected losses in the regular season so that we're not a massive underdog in our bowl game. We face enough post-season disadvantages as it is.

I'm with you on the need for much improvement from the offense, but the day I start hoping for losses will be the day somebody needs to take power of attorney and run my affairs. I'll be that far gone. Real strange statement.

[Bob Green]

Instead I'm actually hoping for some unexpected losses in the regular season so that we're not a massive underdog in our bowl game.

Wow! As Killerleft states, "Real strange statement."

I'm hoping we win out!

[devildeac]

Wow! As Killerleft states, "Real strange statement."

I'm hoping we win out!

Hell, yea! Because, if we win out, that means our defense remained excellent, our offense (likely) improved, our special teams made few mistakes and/or broke some big plays and we had a bit of luck. Cut, the staff, the players, the university and the fans would be ecstatic if we got a high level bowl game against Big Name State (or Private) University and entered the game as underdogs and, at 12-1, most likely, not massive ones. I'm dreaming here, folks, and don't consider it likely except as magical speculation.

Hoping for losses? Sheesh.

[Acymetric]

I don't believe Committee will consider Duke viable for a playoff game, OR even a quality bowl game until WW is filling up with butts in the seats. A team that does not draw very well gets the short stick.
Just my .02 worth

Anybody who pays attention (and you can bet the folks counting the money are) knows that Duke fans have been traveling for bowl games. Duke was out-cheering a Manziel fevered A&M fanbase less than two years ago at a premier new years eve bowl...our attendance issues will not be a problem for our bowl draw.

[A-Tex Devil]

This thread title reminds me of a certain quote from The Wolf in Pulp Fiction. One game at a time... :cool:

[uh_no]

This thread title reminds me of a certain quote from The Wolf in Pulp Fiction. One game at a time... :cool:

oh oh i know it:

"pretty please with sugar on top...clean the <redacted> car!"

[Papa John]

This is one of the silliest threads I've ever seen on DBR.

Duke -- playing the schedule Duke plays -- has zero chance of earning a spot in the Final Four -- even with an 12-1 finish.

In fact, the way the national perception of the ACC is now, it's not certain that FSU or Clemson could make it with a 12-1 finish.

Next year, when Duke plays at Northwestern and at Notre Dame OOC and Louisville in conference, it might be possible. Not this year.

I'm not a big fan of superlatives... The chances of Duke gaining a berth in the national championship playoff is extraordinarily slim, but it sure as heck ain't zero. So, so much would have to fall our way though, in addition to going 12-1. We'd have to beat an undefeated Clemson in the ACC championship. Northwestern would have to win the Big Ten. It would help if GaTech would recover and go to a bowl, along with Miami and UNC and VaTech and Pitt and BC... The Pac 10 teams would have to wreak havoc on one another so that they're all saddled with 2 losses... The SEC would need to do the same... The Big 12 would need to have a 1-loss champion and everyone else saddled with at least 2 losses... Basically, the scenario would need to be that Clemson and Northwestern go undefeated, nobody else does, most everybody else has 2 losses, and Duke runs the table, beating that undefeated Clemson in the process... Highly unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility, at least for the time being...

[JasonEvans]

Basically, the scenario would need to be that Clemson and Northwestern go undefeated, nobody else does, most everybody else has 2 losses, and Duke runs the table, beating that undefeated Clemson in the process... Highly unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility, at least for the time being...

One other factor is that Duke would need to start winning games in the most impressive way possible. It is not just that we would need to beat Miami, VT, UNC, and Clemson/FSU, we would need to post 10+ point wins against most of those clubs and a couple 20 or 30 point beatdowns wouldn't hurt at all.

-Jason "it is not going to happen, we all know that, but we can at least speculate a bit for fun" Evans

[CDu]

I'm not a big fan of superlatives... The chances of Duke gaining a berth in the national championship playoff is extraordinarily slim, but it sure as heck ain't zero. So, so much would have to fall our way though, in addition to going 12-1. We'd have to beat an undefeated Clemson in the ACC championship. Northwestern would have to win the Big Ten. It would help if GaTech would recover and go to a bowl, along with Miami and UNC and VaTech and Pitt and BC... The Pac 10 teams would have to wreak havoc on one another so that they're all saddled with 2 losses... The SEC would need to do the same... The Big 12 would need to have a 1-loss champion and everyone else saddled with at least 2 losses... Basically, the scenario would need to be that Clemson and Northwestern go undefeated, nobody else does, most everybody else has 2 losses, and Duke runs the table, beating that undefeated Clemson in the process... Highly unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility, at least for the time being...

I'd say even more than that. I'd say that there would have to be no 2-loss SEC teams. I think a 2-loss SEC champion would get in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team that wins the ACC over a (then) 1-loss Clemson team. Heck, is it feasible that the ACC representative could not be the ACC champion, with Clemson getting in ahead of Duke? Because their resume would be superior to ours (by virtue of beating Notre Dame and FSU and Louisville and South Carolina).

So basically you have to get to a 3-loss SEC champion, a 2-3 loss Big-12 champion, and all of the Big-10 teams not named Northwestern with 3 losses (darn straight that a 2-loss OSU or MSU team gets in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team).

And Duke probably has to hammer the rest of our schedule, as Jason said.

I mean, there is no realistic chance of it happening, but there is technically a nonzero chance of it happening.

[OldPhiKap]

I'd say even more than that. I'd say that there would have to be no 2-loss SEC teams. I think a 2-loss SEC champion would get in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team that wins the ACC over a (then) 1-loss Clemson team. Heck, is it feasible that the ACC representative could not be the ACC champion, with Clemson getting in ahead of Duke? Because their resume would be superior to ours (by virtue of beating Notre Dame and FSU and Louisville and South Carolina).

So basically you have to get to a 3-loss SEC champion, a 2-3 loss Big-12 champion, and all of the Big-10 teams not named Northwestern with 3 losses (darn straight that a 2-loss OSU or MSU team gets in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team).

And Duke probably has to hammer the rest of our schedule, as Jason said.

I mean, there is no realistic chance of it happening, but there is technically a nonzero chance of it happening.

We either will make it in the playoff, or we won't. So, it's like a 50/50 thing. #OwnStats


(I would rather have our schedule, and do as well as we can, than worry about strength of schedule this year. We have Notre Dame on the road next year, then start to cycle back through FSU and Clemson as our out-of-division games soon enough. Our rising strength of schedule hopefully coincides with the rising strength of our program each year).

[nmduke2001]

I made a $1,000 inflation adjusted bet with a buddy that Duke would win a football National Championship before Auburn won a Basketball Championship. We settled on a compounded 2.5% inflation rate.

[brevity]

I made a $1,000 inflation adjusted bet with a buddy that Duke would win a football National Championship before Auburn won a Basketball Championship. We settled on a compounded 2.5% inflation rate.

How specific is the language in this bet? I have next to zero confidence that Auburn basketball can win it all under its current regime, but you might want to provide for a bet cancellation and refund if Auburn wins a title that is later vacated.

[CDu]

I made a $1,000 inflation adjusted bet with a buddy that Duke would win a football National Championship before Auburn won a Basketball Championship. We settled on a compounded 2.5% inflation rate.

Did you stipulate whether this bet carries on to descendants? Because I have trouble seeing either winning their respective championship in the next, oh, 30 years.

But I guess if I had to pick one to happen, it would be Duke.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'd say even more than that. I'd say that there would have to be no 2-loss SEC teams. I think a 2-loss SEC champion would get in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team that wins the ACC over a (then) 1-loss Clemson team. Heck, is it feasible that the ACC representative could not be the ACC champion, with Clemson getting in ahead of Duke? Because their resume would be superior to ours (by virtue of beating Notre Dame and FSU and Louisville and South Carolina).

So basically you have to get to a 3-loss SEC champion, a 2-3 loss Big-12 champion, and all of the Big-10 teams not named Northwestern with 3 losses (darn straight that a 2-loss OSU or MSU team gets in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team).

And Duke probably has to hammer the rest of our schedule, as Jason said.

I mean, there is no realistic chance of it happening, but there is technically a nonzero chance of it happening.

No, see even a 3 loss SEC champion would be ahead of us, because that would show HOW STRONG the SEC is this year.

Or something.

[nmduke2001]

How specific is the language in this bet? I have next to zero confidence that Auburn basketball can win it all under its current regime, but you might want to provide for a bet cancellation and refund if Auburn wins a title that is later vacated.
Good point. You know Bruce Pearl and his "barbecues".


Did you stipulate whether this bet carries on to descendants? Because I have trouble seeing either winning their respective championship in the next, oh, 30 years.

But I guess if I had to pick one to happen, it would be Duke.
First of all, I hope we live more than 30 years, buddy. Second, I have faith in Cut.

[CDu]

Good point. You know Bruce Pearl and his "barbecues".


First of all, I hope we live more than 30 years, buddy. Second, I have faith in Cut.

Seconded, man. I definitely hope to see you at the 45th year reunion! But while I have faith in Cut building a perrennial competitor, I don't think he will coaching long enough to get us a title. And who knows what the next coach does.

[JasonEvans]

No, see even a 3 loss SEC champion would be ahead of us, because that would show HOW STRONG the SEC is this year.

Or something.

Are you ready for this...

Sagarin Conference rankings:

SEC - West
Big 12
Pac 12 - South
ACC -Coastal (that's us!)
SEC - East
ACC - Atlantic
PAC 12 - North
Big Ten - West
Independents (Notre Dame, BYU, and Army)
Big Ten - East


-Jason "someone explain to me why Ohio State and/or MSU deserve to play for the title" Evans

[MarkD83]

-Jason "someone explain to me why Ohio State and/or MSU deserve to play for the title" Evans

They won't because Northwestern will go undefeated and Duke will meet them in the National Championship game with a chance at redemption.

(I love my Duke blue kool-aid)

[wilson]

They won't because Northwestern will go undefeated and Duke will meet them in the National Championship game with a chance at redemption.

(I love my Duke blue kool-aid)Then Collins gets Northwestern to its first-ever NCAA Tournament and the two schools meet in the basketball title game, establishing a nerd chokehold on 2016 bragging rights.

[Wander]

I'd say even more than that. I'd say that there would have to be no 2-loss SEC teams. I think a 2-loss SEC champion would get in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team that wins the ACC over a (then) 1-loss Clemson team. Heck, is it feasible that the ACC representative could not be the ACC champion, with Clemson getting in ahead of Duke? Because their resume would be superior to ours (by virtue of beating Notre Dame and FSU and Louisville and South Carolina).

So basically you have to get to a 3-loss SEC champion, a 2-3 loss Big-12 champion, and all of the Big-10 teams not named Northwestern with 3 losses (darn straight that a 2-loss OSU or MSU team gets in ahead of a 1-loss Duke team).

And Duke probably has to hammer the rest of our schedule, as Jason said.

I mean, there is no realistic chance of it happening, but there is technically a nonzero chance of it happening.

I don't think it matters how many losses the SEC champion is a 0, 1, 2, or 3 loss team. The way to look at it is this: we would need a situation where the 4 playoff teams are from 4 different conferences (reasonable). So what matters is how many losses the NEXT SEC team has, because the SEC champion is going to be one of those four almost no matter what. So, I'd say the tiny chance Duke has requires the following, in decreasing order of likelihood:

1. No team outside the Big 5 conferences is a playoff contender (this is probably just equivalent to Notre Dame losing again)
2. No SEC team other than the champion has 2 losses or less
3. Either the Big 12 champion OR Big 10 champion OR Pac 12 champion has 3 or more losses
4. Duke wins all the remaining games, including the ACC championship

So I think the path is actually pretty simple. Just amazingly unlikely.

[Olympic Fan]

Sorry I sneered at this thread ...

I didn't realize that you guys wanted to visit Cloud Cuckoo Land.

Please, enjoy your wallowing in your delusions.

I'll look forward to the day when talking about Duke and the NCAA football playoffs will actually be realistic.

[CDu]

Sorry I sneered at this thread ...

I didn't realize that you guys wanted to visit Cloud Cuckoo Land.

Please, enjoy your wallowing in your delusions.

I'll look forward to the day when talking about Duke and the NCAA football playoffs will actually be realistic.

I actually agree in principle with you that it isn't going to happen. But I find this post offensive, unlike your first post. Especially since every post in the last two pages is (a) not delusional and (b) acknowledges that the chances are pretty darn close to zero. There is nothing cuckoo about that.

To say that the chances are are zero however, is cuckoo. It is true that the chances are close enough to zero that (given we will only see one outcome of the thousands/millions of potential outcomes) we won't see it happen. But the probability is not zero.

You were right to scoff at the idea that we are a trendy sleeper. You were wrong to scoff at the discussion of the potential scenarios that would get us in, especially because all discussions of these scenarios talk about how ridiculously unlikely it is to happen.

[wilson]

I actually agree in principle with you that it isn't going to happen. But I find this post offensive, unlike your first post. Especially since every post in the last two pages is (a) not delusional and (b) acknowledges that the chances are pretty darn close to zero. There is nothing cuckoo about that.

To say that the chances are are zero is, however, is cuckoo. It is true that the chances are close enough to zero that (given we will only see one outcome of the thousands/millions of potential outcomes) we won't see it happen. But the probability is not zero.

You were right to scoff at the idea that we are a trendy sleeper. You were wrong to scoff at the discussion of the potential scenarios that would get us in, especially because all discussions of these scenarios talk about how ridiculously unlikely it is to happen.Agreed here. Just because you don't wanna hang out in Cloud Cuckoo Land doesn't mean you gotta go all Lord Business on it.
5556

[OldPhiKap]

I have Kragle on my keyboard.

One week at a time.

[English]

I actually agree in principle with you that it isn't going to happen. But I find this post offensive, unlike your first post. Especially since every post in the last two pages is (a) not delusional and (b) acknowledges that the chances are pretty darn close to zero. There is nothing cuckoo about that.

To say that the chances are are zero however, is cuckoo. It is true that the chances are close enough to zero that (given we will only see one outcome of the thousands/millions of potential outcomes) we won't see it happen. But the probability is not zero.

You were right to scoff at the idea that we are a trendy sleeper. You were wrong to scoff at the discussion of the potential scenarios that would get us in, especially because all discussions of these scenarios talk about how ridiculously unlikely it is to happen.

If having a legit shot at top honors in any sport was a prerequisite for discussing the possibilities on an internet message board, the internet would be a cold place for most fanbases. OF, I think perhaps you've been spoiled by whatever region's collective fanbases you're privy to hearing if you think the past couple of pages of this thread are outlandish. You should spend some time in the nation's capitol listening to the (Washington DC football team) fans begin each year with a laundry list of why their guys are surefire SuperBowl champs. Or, you definitely shouldn't.

[OldPhiKap]

If having a legit shot at top honors in any sport was a prerequisite for discussing the possibilities on an internet message board, the internet would be a cold place for most fanbases. OF, I think perhaps you've been spoiled by whatever region's collective fanbases you're privy to hearing if you think the past couple of pages of this thread are outlandish. You should spend some time in the nation's capitol listening to the (Washington DC football team) fans begin each year with a laundry list of why their guys are surefire SuperBowl champs. Or, you definitely shouldn't.

. . . or live in Georgia. The Dawgs are gonna win the national championship every year. Just ask 'em.

[sagegrouse]

Are you ready for this...

Sagarin Conference rankings:

SEC - West
Big 12
Pac 12 - South
ACC -Coastal (that's us!)
SEC - East
ACC - Atlantic
PAC 12 - North
Big Ten - West
Independents (Notre Dame, BYU, and Army)
Big Ten - East


-Jason "someone explain to me why Ohio State and/or MSU deserve to play for the title" Evans


Hmmm.... That means that the ACC Coastal outranks the SEC East. So,... Duke, GT, UNC, Miami, VPI, UVa, and Pitt are better this year than Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Mizzou? I'll have to think about that.

[Wander]

Hmmm.... That means that the ACC Coastal outranks the SEC East. So,... Duke, GT, UNC, Miami, VPI, UVa, and Pitt are better this year than Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Mizzou? I'll have to think about that.

Well, the scores are extremely close, but yes, I think it's fair to say they're about equal. The very bottom (Vandy and UVA) are about the same, the SEC East is probably a bit better at the top (Florida and Georgia vs Duke and UNC), Georgia Tech and Tennessee sort of cancel out, Miami and South Carolina sort of cancel out, but then Virginia Tech/Pitt are a little better than Kentucky/Mizzou. So I can see it being close to even.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Are you ready for this...

Sagarin Conference rankings:

SEC - West
Big 12
Pac 12 - South
ACC -Coastal (that's us!)
SEC - East
ACC - Atlantic
PAC 12 - North
Big Ten - West
Independents (Notre Dame, BYU, and Army)
Big Ten - East


-Jason "someone explain to me why Ohio State and/or MSU deserve to play for the title" Evans

How dare you inject facts and statistics into this discussion? This goes one of two ways: The SEC Champion goes undefeated and receives rave reviews for escaping unscathed in such a ruthless conference, or, the SEC champion has three losses and receives rave reviews for winning a conference so competitive and so deep. ESPN will not change the narrative, no matter what the facts are.

In seriousness, my personal opinion is that I am happy to be this deep in the season and have any discussion of Duke in a playoff not be the mad ravings of an unstoppable moron, but instead an outside chance requiring a sequence of unlikely events.

[Merlindevildog91]

Hmmm.... That means that the ACC Coastal outranks the SEC East. So,... Duke, GT, UNC, Miami, VPI, UVa, and Pitt are better this year than Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Mizzou? I'll have to think about that.

Greyson Lambert couldn't play at UVA, but starts at UGA. But I think that's more of an indictment of Mike London than a statement regarding SEC East football.

[wilson]

Greyson Lambert couldn't play at UVA, but starts at UGA. But I think that's more of an indictment of Mike London than a statement regarding SEC East football.This is an interesting fact to me, too. It seems that Georgia has really missed on their QB recruiting in the last couple of years. There's certainly a loud chorus of voices in Atlanta and environs saying so.
I think your point about Mike London is a good one too, but there is a noticeable void under center in Athens right now. At this point, the response among many Dawg fans is, "Wait until Eason gets here [Jacob Eason, consensus #1 recruit in the 2016 class, who is set to enroll at UGA in January]." But even that could be a strikeout.
Seth Emerson of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's UGA sports blog had a good piece about this yesterday:
https://www.dawgnation.com/football/team-news/analysis-how-did-georgia-arrive-at-this-quarterback-quandary

[sagegrouse]

This is an interesting fact to me, too. It seems that Georgia has really missed on their QB recruiting in the last couple of years. There's certainly a loud chorus of voices in Atlanta and environs saying so.
I think your point about Mike London is a good one too, but there is a noticeable void under center in Athens right now. At this point, the response among many Dawg fans is, "Wait until Eason gets here [Jacob Eason, consensus #1 recruit in the 2016 class, who is set to enroll at UGA in January]." But even that could be a strikeout.
Seth Emerson of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's UGA sports blog had a good piece about this yesterday:
https://www.dawgnation.com/football/team-news/analysis-how-did-georgia-arrive-at-this-quarterback-quandary

Funny thing, it isn't primarily about HS credentials and physical attributes, but about college systems and coaching. I am thankful for Coach Cutcliffe.

[wilson]

Funny thing, it isn't primarily about HS credentials and physical attributes, but about college systems and coaching. I am thankful for Coach Cutcliffe.This is part of the story. I do agree with you that the right college coach can do a lot, even with a player who may not have been as highly-regarded coming out of high school, but on the other hand, I'm not quite ready to proclaim the Georgia coaching staff deficient in that regard. Aaron Murray wasn't that long ago. I suppose you could argue that OC Mike Bobo (now head coach at Colorado State) was the main guy when it came to QBs and that his departure left the UGA coaching staff lacking, but he didn't exactly leave chopped liver to replace him.

[BD80]

Sorry I sneered at this thread ...

I didn't realize that you guys wanted to visit Cloud Cuckoo Land.

Please, enjoy your wallowing in your delusions.

I'll look forward to the day when talking about Duke and the NCAA football playoffs will actually be realistic.

Compare such talk today to ten, twenty or thirty years ago. Realistic is relative.

(OK, even assuming there were NCAA football playoffs back then)

[-bdbd]

I'll have what [he]'s having.
-diner lady in When Harry Met Sally

Little known story - the Director gave his MOTHER the part with that line in 'When Harry Met Sally.' Best line in the movie! ;)

[BD80]

Little known story - the Director gave his MOTHER the part with that line in 'When Harry Met Sally.' Best line in the movie! ;)

What a meathead

[wilson]

Little known story - the Director gave his MOTHER the part with that line in 'When Harry Met Sally.' Best line in the movie! ;)


What a meatheadI actually did know that about the movie, and it's indeed a great little tidbit.
I have also been to that very deli, Katz's Deli in SoHo. It's grimy, they're rude and lazy, and the sandwich was fine but overrated. Bummer.

[BD80]

Duke's playoff hopes that depend on NWU success in the Big Whatever not looking real good right now: UM 21 - NWU 0, end of 1st quarter, UM driving.

[Pghdukie]

Cloud Cuckoo Land - I can see this thread turning into minutes played, cinder blocks, and other board hyjinks. But it is fun to dream !!

[Tripping William]

Cloud Cuckoo Land - I can see this thread turning into minutes played, cinder blocks, and other board hyjinks. But it is fun to dream !!

Beer? Did someone say beer? :o

[CDu]

Still not a zero percent chance. But if it was a .00001% chance before today, it is like a .00000001% chance now.

[sagegrouse]

Still not a zero percent chance. But if it was a .00001% chance before today, it is like a .00000001% chance now.

Yeah minimal, for sure. But, for the fun of it, here's an analytical framework:

Probability that (a) Duke runs the table

Times

The probability that (b) there are not four more worthy teams in the eyes of the CFP Selection Committee.

The probability of (a) is something like 0.6 to the sixth power for the regular season, or about five percent (Duke has about a 60 percent chance in every remaining game; actually Duke's P{win} is higher for UVa and Wake than for the others). Duke has a 40 percent chance of winning the conference championship (may seem high, but this is a team on a roll after eight consecutive wins). That "highly scientific" calculation gives Duke a two percent chance of ending the season 12-1.

The probability of (b) -- I think -- is a lot higher. After all, the CFP picks four teams. A 12-1 Duke team might get the nod if, for example, there are three dominant winners in the other four major conferences (so there is no logical #2 as a candidate) and the fourth conference is an unrelenting mess, where no one has an impressive record. Then a one-loss Duke becomes a credible candidate (and BTW also must have a better record than independents Notre Dame and BYU). I think there's about a 40-50 percent chance this happens. Part of my judgment is that the highly political CFP Selection Committee will want to "spread the wealth" and try to avoid giving two playoff bids to one conference. This, in combination with one conference being won by, say a three-loss team, might do it. Moreover, don't underrate the attraction of a Duke team with a 12-1 record.

In conclusion, I think the hard part is winning the remaining games. All together, now -- duh....!!!

[Acymetric]

Yeah minimal, for sure. But, for the fun of it, here's an analytical framework:

Probability that (a) Duke runs the table

Times

The probability that (b) there are not four more worthy teams in the eyes of the CFP Selection Committee.

The probability of (a) is something like 0.6 to the sixth power for the regular season, or about five percent (Duke has about a 60 percent chance in every remaining game; actually Duke's P{win} is higher for UVa and Wake than for the others). Duke has a 40 percent chance of winning the conference championship (may seem high, but this is a team on a roll after eight consecutive wins). That "highly scientific" calculation gives Duke a two percent chance of ending the season 12-1.

The probability of (b) -- I think -- is a lot higher. After all, the CFP picks four teams. A 12-1 Duke team might get the nod if, for example, there are three dominant winners in the other four major conferences (so there is no logical #2 as a candidate) and the fourth conference is an unrelenting mess, where no one has an impressive record. Then a one-loss Duke becomes a credible candidate (and BTW also must have a better record than independents Notre Dame and BYU). I think there's about a 40-50 percent chance this happens. Part of my judgment is that the highly political CFP Selection Committee will want to "spread the wealth" and try to avoid giving two playoff bids to one conference. This, in combination with one conference being won by, say a three-loss team, might do it. Moreover, don't underrate the attraction of a Duke team with a 12-1 record.

In conclusion, I think the hard part is winning the remaining games. All together, now -- duh....!!!

Unless the 3 loss team comes from the SEC (in which case the team will probably still be the #1 overall), or is Ohio State in which case they would sneak in at #4 over a 1 loss Duke (defending champ bias).

[Wander]

Still not a zero percent chance. But if it was a .00001% chance before today, it is like a .00000001% chance now.

I don't agree. The Northwestern angle is overrated. I think the only scenario it would matter in is if a 12-1 Duke team is competing with an undefeated non-Power 5 team, which of course is possible. Our schedule is weak enough that we will not win a "tiebreaker" with a Power 5 team no matter what Northwestern or Clemson does. If it was .00001% before, it is about .00002% now. The slight increase comes from Oklahoma losing, which slightly increases the chance that the Big 12 champion has 2 losses instead of 0 or 1.

[budwom]

I actually did know that about the movie, and it's indeed a great little tidbit.
I have also been to that very deli, Katz's Deli in SoHo. It's grimy, they're rude and lazy, and the sandwich was fine but overrated. Bummer.

Blasphemy, if you're discussing the pastrami sandwich. Exemplary. Deli rankers in NYC consistently rate it as the best, or among the very best, for pastrami.

[Wander]

So, while still recognizing that the chances of this happening are well under 1%, I think the main thing that needs to happen other than Duke improbably winning all our remaining games is chaos in the Pac-12. The goal is for the conference champion to have 3 losses. Then, the committee takes the Big 12, Big 10, SEC, and ACC champion. There are a few other things needed for that scenario (like Notre Dame taking another loss somewhere), but the Pac-12 eating each other is I think the most important thing.