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View Full Version : Sean Obi, lookin' good



gumbomoop
09-28-2015, 12:28 AM
And I'm amazed at the skepticism among Duke fans as to Obi's impact. On the Scout Board. the consensus is that he'll be a marginal player -- maybe the 11th man.

My reaction is: When was the last time K took a transfer who didn't turn out to be an impact player -- right away? The answer, for the record, is never -- every transfer to K's program has started in his first eligible season (although in Curry's case, it was only after Kyrie's injury); every transfer has ended up first-team All-ACC, except Rodney Hood and he was the top vote-getter on the second team in his one season at Duke; every transfer has been a first-round NBA draft pick except Seth Curry ... and he's currently in the NBA.

Why do people think Obi will be different?

He comes in as a proven rebounder -- he had more rebounds in his freshmen year at Rice than any Duke freshman since Mike Gminski in 1977. At least one NBA big man (Andre Drummond of the Detroit Pistons) has called Obi the toughest defender he's ever had to go against. Okafor is on record as praising his defensive work in practice. And there's little question that he'll be our strongest, most physical player at 6-9, 270 (only Vrankovic has the physical size to match Obi).

Look, I'm not suggesting the Obi is a sure or even likely starter and certainly not a star -- his offensive skills are suspect. But I think a guy who can rebound at the highest level and play tough, physical defense in the post will see significant playing time. We'll need somebody like him to match up with strong, powerful post players -- like Anya and Abu at NC State, Mitchell at Georgia Tech, Auguste at Notre Dame, Meeks at UNC and, if we play them, Carter at Maryland or Diallo at Kansas.

AFAICR, I haven't been among the skeptics. But like Oly Fan, I am curious about the sources of Obi-skepticism. It's as if Sean's sartorial splendiferousness marks him as too valuable an adornment to waste on mere PT.

But that may not suffice to explain the thing. My semi-serious [as opposed to the totally serious sartorial theory] [I]speculation is:

(1) Some posters think K might play Amile some at the 5, with Brandon at the 4, thus reducing the available minutes at the 5, Sean's position.
(2) Some posters think Chase will play exclusively at the 5, because Amile is the logical starting 4, replaced at the 4 for maybe 15 mpg by Brandon.
(3a) Some posters see Marshall as ahead of Sean, given this will be his 5th year, compared to Sean's 2d. As Sean doesn't appear likely to follow Rodney Hood's OAD-at-Duke career, he's gonna take next year to get used to "real" high major ball [Rice doesn't quite count, in this thinking], so he'll be ready to shine in the future. [This particular viewpoint doesn't want to focus too much on Sean's prospects if, say, some unnamed top-5 Cs join the 2016 or 2017 matriculants.]
(3b) Some posters are very, very fond of Marshall, for his enthusiasm, fierce play, loyalty, and humor. They think, too, that Duke just plays well when Marshall is out there. He deserves a chance to play, he might be a strong contributor, let's look forward to his and our enjoying his senior season.
(4a) Some posters don't see any clear leader for minutes at the 5, so a kind of default position is that Marshall, Chase, and Sean will split the 40 minutes. Unless Sean rally outshines the highly ranked Chase and the experienced Marshall, his share of the split would only be 12-13 mpg anyway. Good enough, but not anything to get excited about.
(4b) Given the default position that "K ain't gonna play 9," one of the 3 Cs will lose out. This is a very athletic team, except for Sean, so he's out.

I don't think I subscribe to any of the above. But because I do think the Brandon Domino will fall toward his playing some as stretch 4, that would mean Chase is mostly a 5, which in turn means it would be surprising for any of Sean, Marshall, or Chase consistently to reach 20 mpg. Perhaps K will give 2 of the 3 Cs the 40 minutes on a game-by-game basis, rotating them depending on the opponents' bigs.

OldPhiKap
09-28-2015, 06:54 AM
FWIW, Jah said last year that part of his development was due to having to practice against Sean last year. I think the question is how he transitions from Rice-like competition to ACC play. Last year of practice should have him ready to go.

loran16
09-28-2015, 07:51 AM
gumbo, Obi's statistical profile at Rice had him as a monster rebounder, so when he announced his transfer, it was indeed exciting.

The reason for the lack of confidence anymore is simply how little he was mentioned last year. The last two transfers to come in (Rodney Hood and Seth Curry) were talked about often during their year they had to sit out. With Obi, there was basically silence. And with the position he's in being filled with other players....it's easy to suspect that he's not going to be a big impact player.

Troublemaker
09-28-2015, 09:59 AM
With Obi, there was basically silence. And with the position he's in being filled with other players....it's easy to suspect that he's not going to be a big impact player.

Right. In addition to gumbo's analysis above, the recruitment of Bolden in the '16 class and Carter and Bamba in '17 demonstrate (to me at least) that unlike Duke's previous transfers, our coaches don't expect Obi to be a starting-level talent at Duke. He may turn out to be a valuable reserve player, though.

WRT to this upcoming season, to use some of the logic gumbo mentioned above, I believe Duke will have a 4-man post-rotation.

I suspect, based on Coach K's previous tendencies, that this 4-man post-rotation will look like this:

PF - Amile 25 mpg, Brandon 15 mpg
C - ?????? 20 mpg, Marshall 15 mpg, Amile 5 mpg

You can quibble with the exact minutes, obviously, but essentially we have to figure out who the starting center playing ~20 mpg is going to be.

The choice is between Chase and Sean. One will be the starter. One will sit all game long.

It's more or less a guess, but I choose Chase for the starter and Sean for the bench.

gumbomoop
09-28-2015, 10:18 AM
(1) With Obi, there was basically silence. (2) And with the position he's in being filled with other players....it's easy to suspect that he's not going to be a big impact player.

Your (1) is a factor I forgot, so make it #5 in my post. Your (2) is related to my (3a), (4a), and (4b).

I'm agnostic on the subject of minutes distribution among Sean, Marshall, and Chase. My post was intended to address the several possible reasons for Sean-skepticism. Not exactly to refute the skepticism; more to think aloud about its sources.

I am not agnostic re one issue relevant to C-minutes: I do not believe Amile will play much at all at the 5, so I think there will be 40 minutes for Sean, Marshall, and Chase to fight for. But if -- unlikely but if -- the Brandon Domino falls so that Brandon logs most of his time as a stretch 4, then K might surprise with lots and lots of small-ball, including Amile at the 5 for major minutes. That would effectively mean a 6-man rotation for the major minutes, with, say, 2 of Sean, Marshall, and Chase "in the rotation" as the 7-8 men for 12-13 minutes each. The Cs get squeezed, and one of them gets squeezed out.

This extreme anti-pivot scenario actually pivots on a combo of a Brandon-Luke Domino: Brandon being a killer stretch 4, unguardable, plus Luke being so much better than advertised on both O and D that he demands 25-30 mpg.

I do not subscribe to this outrageous 6 + 2 rotation scenario. But K is krazy, so I'm just covering my bets.


... and Sean for the bench.

Lookin' good from there, presumably?

This poster is an admitted and serial maker of trouble, in this particular case, for Olympic Fan. I propose s/he be banned from EK for life, or at least until Sean graduates. [Understand now, I propose banishment for Troublemaker, not Oly Fan...... What the hell, both of 'em. Leaves more space for the rest of us to spout fanatic nonsense.]

flyingdutchdevil
09-28-2015, 10:22 AM
Right. In addition to gumbo's analysis above, the recruitment of Bolden in the '16 class and Carter and Bamba in '17 demonstrate (to me at least) that unlike Duke's previous transfers, our coaches don't expect Obi to be a starting-level talent at Duke. He may turn out to be a valuable reserve player, though.

WRT to this upcoming season, to use some of the logic gumbo mentioned above, I believe Duke will have a 4-man post-rotation.

I suspect, based on Coach K's previous tendencies, that this 4-man post-rotation will look like this:

PF - Amile 25 mpg, Brandon 15 mpg
C - ?????? 20 mpg, Marshall 15 mpg, Amile 5 mpg

You can quibble with the exact minutes, obviously, but essentially we have to figure out who the starting center playing ~20 mpg is going to be.

The choice is between Chase and Sean. One will be the starter. One will sit all game long.

It's more or less a guess, but I choose Chase for the starter and Sean for the bench.

Consider me a huuuuuuuuuge Obi fan. He's clearly a great rebounder, and everything that we've read about him says that defense is also a strong and well-known attribute. His offense is clearly a question mark and he could be MP3 as a sophomore (6 pp 40 min) or MP1 as a senior (13 points per 40 min) and anything in between.

Right now, this team is better positioned for defense than offense (when was the last time you said that about a Duke team!). Thornton, Jefferson, Jones, Ingram, and Obi are all perceived as better-than-average defenders and above (especially Ingram at the 3). The jury is still out on Allen, Kennard, and MP3. So, with such defensive tools at Coach K's disposal, will be continue with a defensive player at the 5 (in which case Obi gets the nod) or try and inject more offensive talent (in which case Jeter is the better candidate)? I really don't know.

Also, Troublemaker, I don't agree with you on MP3's minutes (and not be a few minutes here and there). Between Obi, Jeter, and MP3, I think MP3 gets the short straw. He will provide leadership, but with Jefferson and Jones expected to garner a lot of minutes, how important is on the court leadership from MP3 (I have no doubt that MP3 will be a great leader on the bench and in the locker room). What else can MP3 provide that Obi and Jeter cannot? One of these three player's minutes will inevitably get squeezed, and I see MP3 as the odd man out.

johnb
09-28-2015, 10:36 AM
My hunch is that Obi may not be especially crucial in games in which our opponents are simply overmatched--which is likely to be over half the time. In big games, those against top 25 type teams with deep front lines, Obi can be crucial. If he gets 12 or 20 really solid minutes against the Carolinas and Kentuckys and and against the elite ACC teams, and most of the rest of our guys perform to expectation, Sean can be the X factor that pushes us into the national top rank.

Oh, and I wouldn't worry that Obi spent a year at a low major school like Rice. He just spent a year defending Jah and doing rebounding drills alongside MP3 and Amile. He should be much more acclimated than our freshmen.

flyingdutchdevil
09-28-2015, 10:48 AM
My hunch is that Obi may not be especially crucial in games in which our opponents are simply overmatched--which is likely to be over half the time. In big games, those against top 25 type teams with deep front lines, Obi can be crucial. If he gets 12 or 20 really solid minutes against the Carolinas and Kentuckys and and against the elite ACC teams, and most of the rest of our guys perform to expectation, Sean can be the X factor that pushes us into the national top rank.

Oh, and I wouldn't worry that Obi spent a year at a low major school like Rice. He just spent a year defending Jah and doing rebounding drills alongside MP3 and Amile. He should be much more acclimated than our freshmen.

Obi probably came into Rice as a better rebounder than MP3, Amile, and Jah are right now. Rebounding is one of the few transferable skills from one school to another or one league to another (ie college to the NBA). I expect him to have insane rebounding numbers per 40 min. The other facets of his game are more open to debate, however.

Troublemaker
09-28-2015, 11:01 AM
I am not agnostic re one issue relevant to C-minutes: I do not believe Amile will play much at all at the 5, so I think there will be 40 minutes for Sean, Marshall, and Chase to fight for.

Oh, I can easily envision a stallball, closeout lineup of: PG, Allen, MJones, Ingram, Jefferson

Coach being Coach.


Understand now, I propose banishment for Troublemaker

You're trying to protect your status as #1 Luke fan on the board, I presume. (Notice how above I didn't specify which PG for the stallball, closeout lineup).




What else can MP3 provide that Obi and Jeter cannot?

A beloved 5th-year-senior's experience and energizer-bunny play off the bench. And with respect to Obi, shotblocking ability is likely a difference.

Keep in mind also that Duke seniors tend to experience a Senior Bump in which the quality of their games go up a few notches.

I think Duke fans and Duke players loved MP3's energetic 10mpg off the bench last season. Many of us were clamoring to see more of him, actually. Add in a Senior Bump where his game becomes further refined and mistake-free, and I think we'll again love his play off the bench this season. It would be surprising to me if he gets shut out of the rotation.

flyingdutchdevil
09-28-2015, 11:09 AM
A beloved 5th-year-senior's experience and energizer-bunny play off the bench. And with respect to Obi, shotblocking ability is likely a difference.

Keep in mind also that Duke seniors tend to experience a Senior Bump in which the quality of their games go up a few notches.

I think Duke fans and Duke players loved MP3's energetic 10mpg off the bench last season. Many of us were clamoring to see more of him, actually. Add in a Senior Bump where his game becomes further refined and mistake-free, and I think we'll again love his play off the bench this season. It would be surprising to me if he gets shut out of the rotation.

I guess I'm just falling into "shiny-new-toy" syndrome (although my thoughts on Kennard have been made very clear on this board). I'm really excited to see what Jeter and Obi can provide.

It's a very good problem to have.

gumbomoop
09-28-2015, 11:22 AM
Oh, I can easily envision a stallball, closeout lineup of: PG, Allen, MJones, Ingram, Jefferson.

I thought you were banned.

Until the mods make a public announcement of your lengthy "holiday," I'll bite.

I agree with you re closeout smallball. But my reference in post #5 to the "outrageous 6 + 2 rotation scenario" was to "lots and lots of small-ball," not merely closeout.

On the narrower issue of closeout smallball -- let's say 2 minutes left, Duke up 6 points -- I doubt Jefferson is on the floor, unless his FT % significantly improves. I can envision Krzy going really small, with Brandon, Grayson, Derryck, Matt, and Luke. I suspect these will be our 5 best combo dribblers and FT shooters. As time winds down, each time the opposing team decides to lengthen the game by fouling, maybe K subs in the best FT shooting big. But he's as likely to stick with ultra-small lineup to close out.

Shorter shot clock will make for some tense closeouts, I guess.

flyingdutchdevil
09-28-2015, 11:27 AM
I thought you were banned.

Until the mods make a public announcement of your lengthy "holiday," I'll bite.

I agree with you re closeout smallball. But my reference in post #5 to the "outrageous 6 + 2 rotation scenario" was to "lots and lots of small-ball," not merely closeout.

On the narrower issue of closeout smallball -- let's say 2 minutes left, Duke up 6 points -- I doubt Jefferson is on the floor, unless his FT % significantly improves. I can envision Krzy going really small, with Brandon, Grayson, Derryck, Matt, and Luke. I suspect these will be our 5 best combo dribblers and FT shooters. As time winds down, each time the opposing team decides to shorten the game by fouling, maybe K subs in the best FT shooting big. But he's as likely to stick with ultra-small lineup to close out.

Shorter shot clock will make for some tense closeouts, I guess.

Does this mean Ingram has to guard the opposing 5 in your small ball scenario? That sounds like the worst idea in the world.

Ingram at the 3 is starting to really make a lot of sense to me, given his height, speed, and length to guard nearly any 3. At the 4, Ingram can have some success, especially against the model 4s. But can you envision Ingram trying to guard Kennedy Meeks? I'm pretty sure Meeks has had snacks that weigh more than Ingram!

duke blue brewcrew
09-28-2015, 11:31 AM
FWIW, Jah said last year that part of his development was due to having to practice against Sean last year. I think the question is how he transitions from Rice-like competition to ACC play. Last year of practice should have him ready to go.

I couldn't agree more here. Obi's transfer year, and practicing against Jah all last season should have him ready to go. We've all read some outstanding commentss about Obi from Drummond, Jah and others. I think Obi is a constant contributor this year. MP3 may get a slight nod on PT given it's his final year in the program (among other things), and Chase will benefit from splitting time between the 4 & 5. That said, no way does Obi get left out in the cold in the rotation. As other's have pointed out in this thread, Sean is a beast down low and will be a huge asset against other wide-bodied space eaters in the paint that Duke will be facing this season. Unless Obi surprises all of us with some offensive refinement yet to be reported on, I'm not sure I see a scenario where Amile and Sean are on the floor at the same time however. They are both more defensively focused players, so I view that as an either/or situation.

COYS
09-28-2015, 11:31 AM
On the narrower issue of closeout smallball -- let's say 2 minutes left, Duke up 6 points -- I doubt Jefferson is on the floor, unless his FT % significantly improves. I can envision Krzy going really small, with Brandon, Grayson, Derryck, Matt, and Luke. I suspect these will be our 5 best combo dribblers and FT shooters. As time winds down, each time the opposing team decides to lengthen the game by fouling, maybe K subs in the best FT shooting big. But he's as likely to stick with ultra-small lineup to close out.

Shorter shot clock will make for some tense closeouts, I guess.

There is very little doubt in my mind that we will miss Quinn and Tyus calmly knocking down free throws at the end of close games. However, I feel it is also necessary to point out that while Quinn and Tyus were virtually automatic from the stripe as games closed out, we still had plenty of guys on the court who were inconsistent/bad free throw shooters. None of Justise, Jah, or Amile inspired confidence from the line yet all three played plenty of close-out minutes. Coach K is very good at rotating players in and out for offense and defense so I can easily imagine a situation in which Derryck, Luke, Grayson, Matt and Brandon play small ball offense when the other team is fouling while Obi (or another big), Amile, Brandon, Matt, and Derryck play defense. If we have timeouts saved, we make enough shots, and the opposing team calls timeouts, the staff will have plenty of opportunities to make sure our best free throw shooters are on the court when we have the ball and our best defenders are on the court when the opposition has the ball.

Of course, this assumes that Derryck and Brandon prove to be quality free throw shooters. If they aren't, we could have some, ahem, exciting finishes.

gumbomoop
09-28-2015, 11:41 AM
Does this mean Ingram has to guard the opposing 5 in your small ball scenario? That sounds like the worst idea in the world.

I have many ideas worse than this.

But the specific scenario under discussion is ..... specific. It refers only to closeout, and even then would depend on the exact lead and time remaining. Yes, I do in fact believe we will see the 5 specific players I listed in some closeout situations. The purpose of closeout ball is to ..... close out, i.e., win the game. Its purpose is not to relieve fans' nervousness by increasing the lead, though that's preferable. Its purpose is to maintain a lead, even risking its modest reduction as the clock winds down.

Yes, I absolutely believe K will trust his best 5 FT shooters to ..... make FTs, thus putting ever more pressure on the opposing team to hurry up [down?] court to jack up 3s, rather than dump it down low to the center to dunk it over, let's say Matt, who's guarding the the desperate opponent's C. Matt will be instructed not to foul his guy, if that guy happens to secure the bricked 3. K is and isn't Krzy.

duke09hms
09-28-2015, 11:51 AM
There is very little doubt in my mind that we will miss Quinn and Tyus calmly knocking down free throws at the end of close games. However, I feel it is also necessary to point out that while Quinn and Tyus were virtually automatic from the stripe as games closed out, we still had plenty of guys on the court who were inconsistent/bad free throw shooters. None of Justise, Jah, or Amile inspired confidence from the line yet all three played plenty of close-out minutes. Coach K is very good at rotating players in and out for offense and defense so I can easily imagine a situation in which Derryck, Luke, Grayson, Matt and Brandon play small ball offense when the other team is fouling while Obi (or another big), Amile, Brandon, Matt, and Derryck play defense. If we have timeouts saved, we make enough shots, and the opposing team calls timeouts, the staff will have plenty of opportunities to make sure our best free throw shooters are on the court when we have the ball and our best defenders are on the court when the opposition has the ball.

Of course, this assumes that Derryck and Brandon prove to be quality free throw shooters. If they aren't, we could have some, ahem, exciting finishes.

Anyone know what Obi's FT% is or how good he is at FT shooting? His rebounding and defense would be extremely useful in clock-killing situations where we have the lead. Even more so if he can nail FTs.

BoiseDevil
09-28-2015, 11:55 AM
I couldn't agree more here. Obi's transfer year, and practicing against Jah all last season should have him ready to go. We've all read some outstanding commentss about Obi from Drummond, Jah and others. I think Obi is a constant contributor this year. MP3 may get a slight nod on PT given it's his final year in the program (among other things), and Chase will benefit from splitting time between the 4 & 5. That said, no way does Obi get left out in the cold in the rotation. As other's have pointed out in this thread, Sean is a beast down low and will be a huge asset against other wide-bodied space eaters in the paint that Duke will be facing this season. Unless Obi surprises all of us with some offensive refinement yet to be reported on, I'm not sure I see a scenario where Amile and Sean are on the floor at the same time however. They are both more defensively focused players, so I view that as an either/or situation.

I hope I'm wrong, but he was the only guy on the floor who looked overmatched/out of place.

I hope to be wrong, and granted it was only 6 pickup games over two days.

My guess is he will develop, but won't see the floor once ACC games start. The biggest tell for me was the body language of his teammates when he dropped passes or shuffled his feet/got rejected near the rim.

tbyers11
09-28-2015, 11:56 AM
Anyone know what Obi's FT% is or how good he is at FT shooting? His rebounding and defense would be extremely useful in clock-killing situations where we have the lead. Even more so if he can nail FTs.

FTs not good. In his one year at Rice he was 53-101 for 52.5%

I find it interesting that his 101 FTA was far and away the most for a Rice player in 2014. 2nd place was 79.

For comparison, last year Jahlil, Tyus, Justise, and Quinn all had more than 101 FTA and Amile was close with 92.

Guess Duke gets all the calls, huh? :)

Kedsy
09-28-2015, 11:57 AM
Anyone know what Obi's FT% is or how good he is at FT shooting? His rebounding and defense would be extremely useful in clock-killing situations where we have the lead. Even more so if he can nail FTs.

Sean's free throw percentage at Rice was 54.4% . So, not so good, unless he improved drastically during his redshirt season.


EDIT: tbyers11 beat me to it, although according to sports-reference.com, he was 62 for 114.

jimsumner
09-28-2015, 12:44 PM
Ideally, in trying to protect a late lead, you are able to use the deadballs resulting from fouls to substitute. In other words, get your small, ball-handing, foul-shooting team on the floor on offense. When the other team fouls, you get your best defensive lineup in.

Obviously, this doesn't always work. But most of the time you shouldn't be left with five guards playing D.

Then again, if the opponent wants to shoot 3s, you may want five guards on D.

Recall that last year Duke went with Winslow, Jones, Allen, Cook and Jones in these situations and it seemed to work pretty well.

Back to Obi. Rice is a lower level of competition than the ACC. But I suspect it's higher than Liberty. Louisville is counting on grad-student transfers from schools that played lesser schedules than did Rice.

Obi did have some chances against top-tier competition and acquitted himself well. He had eight points and nine rebounds against Texas A& M, 10 points and 12 rebounds against Texas, eight rebounds against Tommy and Harvard.

He had 19 rebounds against South Alabama, 17 against Marshall.

Obi can rebound. And defend.

Can he score? Not sure. Suspect not all that much. But if Jefferson makes the offensive jump as a scorer that I expect and am predicting, then I think Duke can make the tradeoff. And it's not like Marshall Plumlee is going to be a primary option on offense. Jeter? Could change the offensive equation.

I have no idea how the center rotation will play out but I'm really looking forward to finding out.

As an aside. I don't recall the specifics. But sometime last spring a poster on another Duke board stated that he had heard from the coaches that Obi would never be more than a role player at Duke. I can't prove it but I suspect this was the Typhoid Mary of Obi-doubting. Within days, I heard this narrative repeated all over the Duke universe. I read it on the internet, so it has to be true.

And it's not consistent with anything I've heard about Obi.

Let's be clear. I'm not expecting Elton Brand, V. 2. But I also don't expect him to sit on the bench, twiddling his thumbs. I think he'll get a chance to make his case.

kAzE
09-28-2015, 12:49 PM
AFAICR, I haven't been among the skeptics. But like Oly Fan, I am curious about the sources of Obi-skepticism. It's as if Sean's sartorial splendiferousness marks him as too valuable an adornment to waste on mere PT.

But that may not suffice to explain the thing. My semi-serious [as opposed to the totally serious sartorial theory] [I]speculation is:

(1) Some posters think K might play Amile some at the 5, with Brandon at the 4, thus reducing the available minutes at the 5, Sean's position.
(2) Some posters think Chase will play exclusively at the 5, because Amile is the logical starting 4, replaced at the 4 for maybe 15 mpg by Brandon.
(3a) Some posters see Marshall as ahead of Sean, given this will be his 5th year, compared to Sean's 2d. As Sean doesn't appear likely to follow Rodney Hood's OAD-at-Duke career, he's gonna take next year to get used to "real" high major ball [Rice doesn't quite count, in this thinking], so he'll be ready to shine in the future. [This particular viewpoint doesn't want to focus too much on Sean's prospects if, say, some unnamed top-5 Cs join the 2016 or 2017 matriculants.]
(3b) Some posters are very, very fond of Marshall, for his enthusiasm, fierce play, loyalty, and humor. They think, too, that Duke just plays well when Marshall is out there. He deserves a chance to play, he might be a strong contributor, let's look forward to his and our enjoying his senior season.
(4a) Some posters don't see any clear leader for minutes at the 5, so a kind of default position is that Marshall, Chase, and Sean will split the 40 minutes. Unless Sean rally outshines the highly ranked Chase and the experienced Marshall, his share of the split would only be 12-13 mpg anyway. Good enough, but not anything to get excited about.
(4b) Given the default position that "K ain't gonna play 9," one of the 3 Cs will lose out. This is a very athletic team, except for Sean, so he's out.

I don't think I subscribe to any of the above. But because I do think the Brandon Domino will fall toward his playing some as stretch 4, that would mean Chase is mostly a 5, which in turn means it would be surprising for any of Sean, Marshall, or Chase consistently to reach 20 mpg. Perhaps K will give 2 of the 3 Cs the 40 minutes on a game-by-game basis, rotating them depending on the opponents' bigs.

I'm somewhere in between 3a and 3b. Given that Marshall is a leader on the team and has been a student of this system for 5 years, I would expect him to get the first crack at the starting gig. I agree with the 3b part in that I thought the team performed well with Marshall on the floor. The fact that I like him as a person isn't really part of the equation, I sincerely thought that the team had minimal drop off in effectiveness while he was out there. I wouldn't be surprised if we were even slightly better defensively with him subbing in for Okafor.

Of course, if Obi or Jeter prove that they are deserving of playing more minutes or even starting, things could easily change. Marshall off the bench could be the best case scenario, due to his high energy style of play. I'm hoping that Jeter or Obi can play their way into the rotation. That would just mean that we have a really deep front court, and that's always a good thing to have.

sagegrouse
09-28-2015, 09:16 PM
Right. In addition to gumbo's analysis above, the recruitment of Bolden in the '16 class and Carter and Bamba in '17 demonstrate (to me at least) that unlike Duke's previous transfers, our coaches don't expect Obi to be a starting-level talent at Duke. He may turn out to be a valuable reserve player, though.



I wouldn't overemphasize "roster planning" in this day and age. You get a really good player for one year at a time. Maybe Sean Obi will be one and done?

English
09-29-2015, 11:54 AM
I wouldn't overemphasize "roster planning" in this day and age. You get a really good player for one year at a time. Maybe Sean Obi will be one and done?

Well, I think semantically, it's not possible for Sean Obi to be a one and done in his third year of college and second year of college basketball, but that aside, would Sean Obi going pro after his first year of Duke hoops be considered the most surprising NBA defection in Duke basketball history?

Bay Area Duke Fan
09-29-2015, 12:14 PM
Well, I think semantically, it's not possible for Sean Obi to be a one and done in his third year of college and second year of college basketball, but that aside, would Sean Obi going pro after his first year of Duke hoops be considered the most surprising NBA defection in Duke basketball history?

Shavlik Randolph ???

cato
09-29-2015, 12:45 PM
Well, I think semantically, it's not possible for Sean Obi to be a one and done in his third year of college and second year of college basketball, but that aside, would Sean Obi going pro after his first year of Duke hoops be considered the most surprising NBA defection in Duke basketball history?

I realize this reflects my Duke centric* view of the universe, but to me, Rodney Hood was just as much a "one and done" player as players who left after their first year.

*I suppose it is even worse than Duke centric, since Rodney presumably contributed a lot to the program during his year practicing, but not playing with the team.

English
09-29-2015, 01:23 PM
I realize this reflects my Duke centric* view of the universe, but to me, Rodney Hood was just as much a "one and done" player as players who left after their first year.

*I suppose it is even worse than Duke centric, since Rodney presumably contributed a lot to the program during his year practicing, but not playing with the team.

You're certainly entitled to your opinion, and you can choose to approach college basketball with a focus narrowed exclusively toward Duke, but had you broadened your view slightly to the rest of the country--or even to the rest of the southeast--you might've spotted Rodney on the SEC All-Freshman team in his true freshman year. He was joined on that team by Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The latter two gentlemen are what those stuffy traditionalists would label "one-and-done" players. Well, right after those same traditionalists stopped complaining about the decay of college basketball in the OAD era.

I'm super psyched that Rodney choose to spend the years following his would-be one-and-done season in Durham, but there's no definition of the OAD phrase that would cover Rodney Hood in my mind. Nor would it apply to Sean Obi in any instance.

sagegrouse
09-29-2015, 01:48 PM
Well, I think semantically, it's not possible for Sean Obi to be a one and done in his third year of college and second year of college basketball, but that aside, would Sean Obi going pro after his first year of Duke hoops be considered the most surprising NBA defection in Duke basketball history?


You're certainly entitled to your opinion, and you can choose to approach college basketball with a focus narrowed exclusively toward Duke, but had you broadened your view slightly to the rest of the country--or even to the rest of the southeast--you might've spotted Rodney on the SEC All-Freshman team in his true freshman year. He was joined on that team by Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The latter two gentlemen are what those stuffy traditionalists would label "one-and-done" players. Well, right after those same traditionalists stopped complaining about the decay of college basketball in the OAD era.

I'm super psyched that Rodney choose to spend the years following his would-be one-and-done season in Durham, but there's no definition of the OAD phrase that would cover Rodney Hood in my mind. Nor would it apply to Sean Obi in any instance.

English, I think you forgot to begin your responses with the phrase, "Sniff, sniff...."

cato
09-29-2015, 03:14 PM
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, and you can choose to approach college basketball with a focus narrowed exclusively toward Duke, but had you broadened your view slightly to the rest of the country--or even to the rest of the southeast--you might've spotted Rodney on the SEC All-Freshman team in his true freshman year. He was joined on that team by Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The latter two gentlemen are what those stuffy traditionalists would label "one-and-done" players. Well, right after those same traditionalists stopped complaining about the decay of college basketball in the OAD era.

I'm super psyched that Rodney choose to spend the years following his would-be one-and-done season in Durham, but there's no definition of the OAD phrase that would cover Rodney Hood in my mind. Nor would it apply to Sean Obi in any instance.

Yikes. My one and only point is that I care much more about players once they commit to Duke, and once those players do commit, I do not care whether they last played in high school or college.

There is no need to get into a battle about labels. I was just as sad to see Rodney go/excited for his prospects as I was for Jabari. I would loved to have seen them wear Duke on their jerseys longer, but this is the world we live in -- you have to take the team one year at a time.

lotusland
09-29-2015, 09:22 PM
In a prior Minutes thread I ranked Obi 9th in likely MPG which would almost certainly leave him out of the rotation most games. Duke will definitely have a player(s) sitting next year who would dominate at Rice. To me Obi and Jeter are largely unknown but I'm guessing Jeter plays more than Obi (no reason just sheer speculation). For the 2013-2014 season, Rice's RPI was 301 out of 349 http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/rpijust after Long Island and just before Niagara. New Jersey Tech finished just a few spots behind Rice. Stats for New Jersey Tech and Rice just aren't useful measures for production at Duke imo. That's not to say that Obi will be a factor this year or that he won't be but I don't see any evidence that points to him playing ahead of MP3 or Jeter at this point.

Henderson
09-29-2015, 09:27 PM
What's the scouting report on Sean Obi's ability to catch the ball? That is, does he have good hands? It seems a skill (attribute?) that can determine a lot. I hate those "doh!" moments when someone like Zoubs or MPx has one and lets it go.

JohnJ
09-29-2015, 11:15 PM
In a prior Minutes thread I ranked Obi 9th in likely MPG which would almost certainly leave him out of the rotation most games. Duke will definitely have a player(s) sitting next year who would dominate at Rice. To me Obi and Jeter are largely unknown but I'm guessing Jeter plays more than Obi (no reason just sheer speculation). For the 2013-2014 season, Rice's RPI was 301 out of 349 http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/rpijust after Long Island and just before Niagara. New Jersey Tech finished just a few spots behind Rice. Stats for New Jersey Tech and Rice just aren't useful measures for production at Duke imo. That's not to say that Obi will be a factor this year or that he won't be but I don't see any evidence that points to him playing ahead of MP3 or Jeter at this point.

I get your point. However, Rice's SOS was 154 (165 Kenpom) so not that bad. Their problem was they never won. In this case, I think it is very usefull to look at a person's stats - at times they were playing against decent competition.

Troublemaker
09-30-2015, 09:41 AM
This season, the NCAA will continue its quest to re-make the college game to more resemble the NBA game, which most basketball fans regard as an excellent product right now. To that end, there has been another barrage of new rule changes/emphases made by the Rules Committee headed by Coach Rick Byrd to be implemented this season. Coach K, after he read the changes the Rules Committee came up with, actually called up Rick Byrd and told him (I'm paraphrasing), "You've changed college basketball more in one summer than in the previous 25 years." So, our Coach expects the rules impact to be dramatic, and I've read other coaches like Bill Self say the same thing.

With that in mind, does the new rules/emphases affect Sean Obi's value? The consensus scouting report on him seems to be: strong, physical, traditional ground-bound center who plays very good 1-on-1 post defense and is a great rebounder, but probably won't bring much to the table on offense. That sounds like Kendrick Perkins to me (albeit with more rebounding ability), and if the college game is going to start to resemble the NBA game, that's not a good sign for playing time for traditional centers cut from the Kendrick Perkins cloth.

On defense, 1-on-1 post defense is devalued in an environment where ball-handlers can penetrate at will because of touch fouls called on the perimeter. It becomes much more important for your center to be a mobile shotblocker so he can rim-protect against penetrators. Both Jeter and MP3 will likely fill that role better than Obi, and the role is doubly important since Amile is not much of a shotblocker himself (except, thankfully, in national championship games!).

On offense, you want your center to be able to set a solid screen on the perimeter for your ball-handler (Grayson, Brandon, Derryck), which Sean can do, but then the big man must make an athletic "rim run" to the basket to draw help defenders and threaten the defense with lob-dunk possibilities. Once again, I suspect Chase and Marshall will fit this description better than Sean.

Sean's rebounding should be outstanding, but is it that much of a differentiator over Jeter and Plumlee to compensate for the possible deficiencies I mentioned above in a more NBA-like college basketball environment? Also, since Amile is already an outstanding rebounder himself at PF, he doesn't need that much more rebounding from his center. The center that best complements Amile's game will be someone who's athletic, a shotblocker, and can occasionally hit a midrange jumper (Jeter?) to give Amile space to demonstrate that he indeed has a crafty post game and good touch to score around the basket, which many of us have suspected for three years.

Saratoga2
09-30-2015, 09:57 AM
This season, the NCAA will continue its quest to re-make the college game to more resemble the NBA game, which most basketball fans regard as an excellent product right now. To that end, there has been another barrage of new rule changes/emphases made by the Rules Committee headed by Coach Rick Byrd to be implemented this season. Coach K, after he read the changes the Rules Committee came up with, actually called up Rick Byrd and told him (I'm paraphrasing), "You've changed college basketball more in one summer than in the previous 25 years." So, our Coach expects the rules impact to be dramatic, and I've read other coaches like Bill Self say the same thing.

With that in mind, does the new rules/emphases affect Sean Obi's value? The consensus scouting report on him seems to be: strong, physical, traditional ground-bound center who plays very good 1-on-1 post defense and is a great rebounder, but probably won't bring much to the table on offense. That sounds like Kendrick Perkins to me (albeit with more rebounding ability), and if the college game is going to start to resemble the NBA game, that's not a good sign for playing time for traditional centers cut from the Kendrick Perkins cloth.

On defense, 1-on-1 post defense is devalued in an environment where ball-handlers can penetrate at will because of touch fouls called on the perimeter. It becomes much more important for your center to be a mobile shotblocker so he can rim-protect against penetrators. Both Jeter and MP3 will likely fill that role better than Obi, and the role is doubly important since Amile is not much of a shotblocker himself (except, thankfully, in national championship games!).

On offense, you want your center to be able to set a solid screen on the perimeter for your ball-handler (Grayson, Brandon, Derryck), which Sean can do, but then the big man must make an athletic "rim run" to the basket to draw help defenders and threaten the defense with lob-dunk possibilities. Once again, I suspect Chase and Marshall will fit this description better than Sean.

Sean's rebounding should be outstanding, but is it that much of a differentiator over Jeter and Plumlee to compensate for the possible deficiencies I mentioned above in a more NBA-like college basketball environment? Also, since Amile is already an outstanding rebounder himself at PF, he doesn't need that much more rebounding from his center. The center that best complements Amile's game will be someone who's athletic, a shotblocker, and can occasionally hit a midrange jumper (Jeter?) to give Amile space to demonstrate that he indeed has a crafty post game and good touch to score around the basket, which many of us have suspected for three years.

None of us have seen anything of Obi and of course Jeter is a freshman. Obi's reputation, as you point out, is of an imposing physical presence who can rebound and probably hold of a big opposing center. Jeter seemed fluid but soft in the high school level games I watched. Personally, I haven't seen enough to know who will be the better player at the start of the season. We have seen Marshall over the years. He is big, high energy and such but I don't see him as having offensive moves other than the dunk and he frequently runs around on the perimeter and leaves the basket area undefended. In my opinion, none of those three really stands out, but Marshall and Sean have more experience so one of those is likely to start. Then there is the dark horse Vrankovic who no one is talking about.

I believe it is a wait and see proposition with all other positions on the court well filled, we can afford to take that approach.

CDu
09-30-2015, 10:02 AM
None of us have seen anything of Obi and of course Jeter is a freshman. Obi's reputation, as you point out, is of an imposing physical presence who can rebound and probably hold of a big opposing center. Jeter seemed fluid but soft in the high school level games I watched. Personally, I haven't seen enough to know who will be the better player at the start of the season. We have seen Marshall over the years. He is big, high energy and such but I don't see him as having offensive moves other than the dunk and he frequently runs around on the perimeter and leaves the basket area undefended. In my opinion, none of those three really stands out, but Marshall and Sean have more experience so one of those is likely to start. Then there is the dark horse Vrankovic who no one is talking about.

I believe it is a wait and see proposition with all other positions on the court well filled, we can afford to take that approach.

I'm in the same boat as you Saratoga. The center position is just a complete unknown to me at this point. Jeter certainly has the highest recruiting ranking, but by far the least experience. Plumlee and Obi were similarly-rated out of high school (i.e., not very highly rated), but Plumlee has rarely played and Obi has rarely played against ACC-level competition. I am quite comfortable saying that I have no idea who will get the most minutes, or whether any of the 3 get more than ~15 mpg. Historically speaking, transfers have never not made an impact at Duke. But with the times changing, who knows if that history will continue? I'm just happy to let it play out rather than try to guess which of the three (if any) gets major minutes this year.

westwall
09-30-2015, 11:43 AM
Historically speaking, transfers have never not made an impact at Duke.

Isn't there a boatload of evidence to the contrary??

Kedsy
09-30-2015, 11:52 AM
Isn't there a boatload of evidence to the contrary??

Read his post again and note the double-negative. He said transfers at Duke have never not made an impact.

westwall
09-30-2015, 12:03 PM
He said transfers at Duke have never not made an impact.

Thank you, Kedsy. My faith in CDu is restored!

Troublemaker
09-30-2015, 12:18 PM
I hope I'm wrong, but he was the only guy on the floor who looked overmatched/out of place.

I hope to be wrong, and granted it was only 6 pickup games over two days.

My guess is he will develop, but won't see the floor once ACC games start. The biggest tell for me was the body language of his teammates when he dropped passes or shuffled his feet/got rejected near the rim.

Incidentally, BoiseDevil, if you want to drop any more tidbits about what you observed during the mere 6 pickup games over 2 days, I think we would love to read what you thought of the other players who participated. Did any Blue Devil look really good out there?

Kedsy
09-30-2015, 12:57 PM
Incidentally, BoiseDevil, if you want to drop any more tidbits about what you observed during the mere 6 pickup games over 2 days, I think we would love to read what you thought of the other players who participated. Did any Blue Devil look really good out there?

Is this where "Nick Horvath" is the only appropriate response?

Troublemaker
09-30-2015, 01:01 PM
Preseason is Alex Murphy time, too :-)

Disclaimers aside, I do think the denizens here would kill for a pickup report or two.

Kedsy
09-30-2015, 01:56 PM
Disclaimers aside, I do think the denizens here would kill for a pickup report or two.

I agree. It's always nice to pick up additional data, even if subjective.

CDu
09-30-2015, 02:04 PM
Isn't there a boatload of evidence to the contrary??


Read his post again and note the double-negative. He said transfers at Duke have never not made an impact.


Thank you, Kedsy. My faith in CDu is restored!

Sorry for the tortured grammar! Yeah, they have always (a better choice of words than "never not" for sure) made an impact.

It's possible that Obi doesn't make much of an impact - maybe Coach K has revised his recruiting strategy such that he's willing to bring in less-than-impactful transfers when depth is needed. But Obi would be the first transfer to not make an impact in the Coach K era if he does ride the pine.

flyingdutchdevil
09-30-2015, 02:39 PM
I love the discussion of our 5 spot this year. I know many are sick of talking about it, but what aren't you sick of talking about in the off-season? That's why they call it the "off" season.

Anywho, regardless of who plays the most minutes, I think we're going to be okay. Worst case scenario, we have MP3: a solid defender, rebounder, and screener who provides very little on the offensive end. Best case: a defensive juggernaut/rebounder OR an solid offensive option who keeps the defenses honest. Regardless, I'm not expecting too much from the 5, although a defensive juggernaut would be really nice to have (Hi Sean!).

I think the more pressing questions are:

1) How will out 1 fair this year?
2) Can we score inside at all, including posting up and driving?
3) What do we do with Ingram, a talented, long player who is perfect for a Duke spread 4 but will probably spend more time at the 3?
4) Can Amile improve his offensive game?
5) Can Grayson and Ingram combine for at least 30 per game?

CDu
09-30-2015, 04:23 PM
I think the more pressing questions are:

1) How will out 1 fair this year?
2) Can we score inside at all, including posting up and driving?
3) What do we do with Ingram, a talented, long player who is perfect for a Duke spread 4 but will probably spend more time at the 3?
4) Can Amile improve his offensive game?
5) Can Grayson and Ingram combine for at least 30 per game?

I agree that there are lots of unknowns. I do think the "who plays the 5?" question is about as pertinent as many of the others, though, as I don't think 40 minutes of play at last-year's-Plumlee level is sufficient.

With regards to your other 5 questions, my thoughts are as follows:

1) this is a big question mark. I expect Thornton to be promising but inconsistent, as is the case for almost all freshmen PGs. But the real question is who fills in behind him? We have Kennard (the most likely candidate), Allen (who has never shown PG skills), Jones (even less evidence of PG skills), and Ingram (a strong ballhandler but like Allen a purely score-first player). I'd guess Kennard leads the backup duties, but it will be very much a ballhandling-by-committee offense after Thornton. I think we'll be effective offensively, mainly because we have a number of capable ballhandlers who can score for themselves (i.e., we aren't reliant on the system to generate points; individuals can get them on their own).

2) I think we have 3 or 4 guys (Ingram, Allen, Kennard, and Thornton who can score off the dribble. I'd expect the quartet of bigs (the three centers and Jefferson) to get their share of garbage buckets. I don't expect a big post game on offense, aside from unless Jeter really surprises or we invert with Ingram posting up a wing.

3) I think Ingram is ticketed to play primarily at SF, which is his natural spot. Offensively, he could play a dangerous stretch 4. But he's just too skinny for that. Thankfully, his athleticism and skill set fits perfectly on the wing as a SF. So I think he'll play the majority of his minutes on the wing, with occasional minutes at PF as needed (backing up Jefferson there).

4) I guess anything's possible, but I'm expecting Jefferson to continue his role of the past two years: sneaky player around the paint/baseline, but not a primary offensive threat. Maybe he gets an adequate mid-range jumper, but I'm not counting on it. And, frankly, I don't think his offense will be critical for our success.

5) I have little doubt those two can combine for 30 ppg. Whether they will or not is strictly a matter of opportunity. And that will depend on how ready Kennard, Jones, and Thornton are to score from the perimeter. I think our five perimeter guys will approach (maybe exceed) 55 ppg as a group; I just don't know how those points will be distributed.

BoiseDevil
10-01-2015, 01:21 AM
I agree. It's always nice to pick up additional data, even if subjective.

Observations from an amateur:
Derryck Thornton can play!!!!
- missed his first two jumpers and he looked out of rhythm, but settled in
- sweet jumper off a pick and roll
- strong finish off a Miles screen got fouled hard by Z but still made the reverse layup
- super quick on D and fundamentally sound on screens
- Duhon dropped a sweet 18-foot step back but totally pushed off to get space
Match ups:
Du v Derryck
Big Z v Miles/Marshall
Dockery v Lee M/Trajan
Matt J v Grayson (battled like mofos to stalemate)
Obi v Amile
Old guys won both games but there were some REALLY bad old guy calls and I'd say they played even.
Items worth noting:
- Miles missed every 14-foot jumper short
- Z can still battle
- game is too fast for Obi on this day (had trouble catching and finishing, but rebounded OK)
- Grayson didn't pass up an open shot, made half
- Matt Jones played great D on Grayson and had one sweet block on him and drew an impressive charge
- Jones hit his open jumpers, two off the dribble, but missed all of the contested ones
- Dockery still can't hit a jumper
- Amile is Amile and I love it!
I'll try to place a vid but it doesn't show much (and I mistaked Du for Nolan)

BoiseDevil
10-01-2015, 01:22 AM
Observations from an amateur:
Derryck Thornton can play!!!!
- missed his first two jumpers and he looked out of rhythm, but settled in
- sweet jumper off a pick and roll
- strong finish off a Miles screen got fouled hard by Z but still made the reverse layup
- super quick on D and fundamentally sound on screens
- Duhon dropped a sweet 18-foot step back but totally pushed off to get space
Match ups:
Du v Derryck
Big Z v Miles/Marshall
Dockery v Lee M/Trajan
Matt J v Grayson (battled like mofos to stalemate)
Obi v Amile
Old guys won both games but there were some REALLY bad old guy calls and I'd say they played even.
Items worth noting:
- Miles missed every 14-foot jumper short
- Z can still battle
- game is too fast for Obi on this day (had trouble catching and finishing, but rebounded OK)
- Grayson didn't pass up an open shot, made half
- Matt Jones played great D on Grayson and had one sweet block on him and drew an impressive charge
- Jones hit his open jumpers, two off the dribble, but missed all of the contested ones
- Dockery still can't hit a jumper
- Amile is Amile and I love it!
I'll try to place a vid but it doesn't show much (and I mistaked Du for Nolan)

Today' Game
Thornton v Duhon
Miles v Marshall
Matt J v Grayson
Sean K v Amile
Zoubek v Obi
Thornton:
- jumper was really off today, all good shots but I'd say he was 40% at best
- crazy quick D
- he dropped two or three AMAZING fast break assists (one was a near-impossible angle bounce pass)
- he'll do fine when the coaches get their hands on him
Marshall had one THUNDEROUS putback, maybe top 10 putback flushes I've EVER seen (he also air balled a 16-footer and back-rimmed a wide open dunk)
Duhon can still stroke it and maybe passed up one open jumpsuit in the two days I've watched these pickup games
Zoubek is LARGE. Can still rebound more than his area and is strong as an ox. Obi looks pedestrian in his presence
Obi - he's a work in progress, looked smooth on 16 foot jumper
Amile - very impressive D and an improved handle. I still don't see a super-confident 15-footer, but it's apparent he's been working on it as it is better. This kid is an absolute treasure of a human being.
Matt & Grayson - both studs, again cancelled each other out, Grayson has been the better outside shooter of the two, but both are really good. Both play great D, especially on each other.

Troublemaker
10-01-2015, 01:39 AM
Thanks, Boise! Get ready for a deluge of well-deserved sporks!