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uh_no
09-26-2015, 04:54 PM
Now that Duke controls it's own destiny in the coastal division, I realized it was time to start keeping track of the possible outcomes.

Of the 249752 possible remaining outcomes of coastal division games, duke wins the division in 79224 of them.

I made those numbers up....and while it would be fun to code up the tie-breaking rules and simulate all possibilities to see how it changes over the course of the year, I write far too much code for other things. But that doesn't mean we can't look at some numbers by hand:

Week 4:
Duke over GT

week 5:
BC @ Duke (OOD)
UNC @ GT
pitt @vt

week 6:
GT @ Clemson (rivalry)
miami @ FSU (rivalry)
uva @ pitt
NCSU @ VT (OOD)

week 7:
pitt @ gt
vt @ miami
WFU @ UNC (OOD)
cuse @ UVA (OOD)

week 8:
duke @ vt
FSU @ GT (OOD)
clemson @ miami (OOD)
uva @ UNC
pitt @ cuse (rivalry)

week 9:
miami @ duke
gt @ uva
unc @ pitt
VT @ BC (rivalry)

week 10:
duke @ UNC
uva @ miami

week 11:
pitt @ duke
vt @ gt
miami @ unc
uva @ UL (rivalry)

week 12:
duke @ uva
gt @ miami
unc @ vt
UL @ pitt (OOD)

week 13:
duke @ wf (rivalry)
miami @ pitt
UNC @ ncsu (rivalry)
vt @ uva

So:
Teams that control their own destiny: EVERYONE (except GT, who needs everyone to lose once, and duke to lose twice)
Teams that are eliminated: nobody!

Who to cheer for next week?
Duke!
probably GT, since GT already has a loss, so we have an effective 1.5 game lead on them. Further, GT's OOD with clemson and FSU is far harder than UNC's wake/ncsu, and they're far more likely to pick up a loss there than UNC. Oh. and ABC :)
Probably Pitt, since their OOC seems slightly tougher with lousiville in it.

P.S. There are 34,359,738,368 possible remaining outcomes.

-jk
09-26-2015, 05:06 PM
I saw a coastal division poll/odds during the game, but didn't really pay attention other than noting Duke was way low. Did anyone catch it?

-jk

Acymetric
09-26-2015, 05:10 PM
I saw a coastal division poll/odds during the game, but didn't really pay attention other than noting Duke was way low. Did anyone catch it?

-jk

GT was around 47%, probably lower now ;). Think Duke was 2nd to last at 3% or something like that.

Richard Berg
09-26-2015, 05:18 PM
Duke was picked #5 or #6, with a 3.9% chance. No respect.

Acymetric
09-26-2015, 05:21 PM
Duke was picked #5 or #6, with a 3.9% chance. No respect.

Pretty sure Pitt was last but could be mistaken.

BigWayne
09-26-2015, 05:33 PM
Duke was picked #5 or #6, with a 3.9% chance. No respect.

It's not a "pick." What they showed was based on the ESPN FPI numerical rankings, which come from a computerized calculation similar to the RPI scheme used in hoops.

Duke's page is here: http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=150&year=2015

The numbers will update tomorrow or Monday after all today's scores get put in.

Like any other computer based scheme, early in the season the numbers are not very good predictors. Until each team has 2 or 3 conference games in the book, you shouldn't really pay any attention to what comes from these. Also, in my opinion, their calculation makes way too big of an adjustment for home/away.

Olympic Fan
09-26-2015, 05:33 PM
We're at the point now where (aside from pulling for Duke), we pull for every Atlantic team vs. a Coastal team.

Other than that, it's tough -- until we play Miami, VPI, UNC and Pitt, I really don't know who we need the most help with.

I think uh_no is right that we pull for Georgia Tech against UNC. Not only do we have the tiebreaker against the Jackets, they have Clemson and FSU. UNC has Wake and NC State.

I won't be so bold as to say we're the Coastal favorites at the moment, but I would be shocked if we don't finish ahead of Georgia Tech -- or at least tied with them where out head-to-head might matter.

Could be wrong, but a 6-2 conference record has won the Coastal for the last three years (actually 5-3 won it in 2012).

devildeac
09-26-2015, 05:54 PM
We're at the point now where (aside from pulling for Duke), we pull for every Atlantic team vs. a Coastal team.

Other than that, it's tough -- until we play Miami, VPI, UNC and Pitt, I really don't know who we need the most help with.

I think uh_no is right that we pull for Georgia Tech against UNC. Not only do we have the tiebreaker against the Jackets, they have Clemson and FSU. UNC has Wake and NC State.

I won't be so bold as to say we're the Coastal favorites at the moment, but I would be shocked if we don't finish ahead of Georgia Tech -- or at least tied with them where out head-to-head might matter.

Could be wrong, but a 6-2 conference record has won the Coastal for the last three years (actually 5-3 won it in 2012).

And some coaches gave out championship rings for one of the teams with a 5-3* record:rolleyes:.

uh_no
09-26-2015, 05:58 PM
And some coaches gave out championship rings for one of the teams with a 5-3* record:rolleyes:.

I heard their championship trophy didn't show up, though. They gave it an 'A' nonetheless.

OldPhiKap
09-26-2015, 06:15 PM
Now that Duke controls it's own destiny in the coastal division, I realized it was time to start keeping track of the possible outcomes.

Of the 249752 possible remaining outcomes of coastal division games, duke wins the division in 79224 of them.

I made those numbers up....and while it would be fun to code up the tie-breaking rules and simulate all possibilities to see how it changes over the course of the year, I write far too much code for other things. But that doesn't mean we can't look at some numbers by hand:

Week 4:
Duke over GT

week 5:
BC @ Duke (OOD)
UNC @ GT
pitt @vt

week 6:
GT @ Clemson (rivalry)
miami @ FSU (rivalry)
uva @ pitt
NCSU @ VT (OOD)

week 7:
pitt @ gt
vt @ miami
WFU @ UNC (OOD)
cuse @ UVA (OOD)

week 8:
duke @ vt
FSU @ GT (OOD)
clemson @ miami (OOD)
uva @ UNC
pitt @ cuse (rivalry)

week 9:
miami @ duke
gt @ uva
unc @ pitt
VT @ BC (rivalry)

week 10:
duke @ UNC
uva @ miami

week 11:
pitt @ duke
vt @ gt
miami @ unc
uva @ UL (rivalry)

week 12:
duke @ uva
gt @ miami
unc @ vt
UL @ pitt (OOD)

week 13:
duke @ wf (rivalry)
miami @ pitt
UNC @ ncsu (rivalry)
vt @ uva

So:
Teams that control their own destiny: EVERYONE (except GT, who needs everyone to lose once, and duke to lose twice)
Teams that are eliminated: nobody!

Who to cheer for next week?
Duke!
probably GT, since GT already has a loss, so we have an effective 1.5 game lead on them. Further, GT's OOD with clemson and FSU is far harder than UNC's wake/ncsu, and they're far more likely to pick up a loss there than UNC. Oh. and ABC :)
Probably Pitt, since their OOC seems slightly tougher with lousiville in it.

P.S. There are 34,359,738,368 possible remaining outcomes.

Given that GT hosts the heels, I'd say that Duke and GT are my favorite teams next Saturday.

devildeac
09-26-2015, 06:22 PM
Given that GT hosts the heels, I'd say that Duke and GT are my favorite teams next Saturday.

I have two favorite teams: Duke and whoever is playing unc.

OZZIE4DUKE
09-26-2015, 06:41 PM
I have two favorite teams: Duke and whoever is playing unc.
Needless to say, I heartily agree with devildeac! LGD! GTHc! And next week, go GaTech! 9F!

75Crazie
09-26-2015, 06:55 PM
I'm curious as to how seriously people can think we can compete for a championship. I need to see at least some evidence of a competent offense before I start believing that. The past two games showed me the same thing: a decent running game for a quarter or so, and then defensive adjustments that leave us with absolutely no answer at all. Should I have any hope that Cutcliffe will develop some sort of answer for this offense, and particularly the quarterback play? I sure hope so, because (as somebody else mentioned on the other thread) this is probably our best defense since 1971 and I would sure hate to see this defense get worn down by the end of the year as that one did.

duke09hms
09-26-2015, 07:10 PM
I'm curious as to how seriously people can think we can compete for a championship. I need to see at least some evidence of a competent offense before I start believing that. The past two games showed me the same thing: a decent running game for a quarter or so, and then defensive adjustments that leave us with absolutely no answer at all. Should I have any hope that Cutcliffe will develop some sort of answer for this offense, and particularly the quarterback play? I sure hope so, because (as somebody else mentioned on the other thread) this is probably our best defense since 1971 and I would sure hate to see this defense get worn down by the end of the year as that one did.

Yep, I feel the same way about our offense. Sirk is a huge question mark at QB, and I don't know if we can trust him to make big plays with his arm. He almost reminds me of Tim Tebow. Unfortunately it's the NFL-version of Tim Tebow and not college - always looking to run and unable to make consistent completions.

The thing is, Sirk IS an accurate passer, which seems like it's something that can't be coached. He needs to work on his command of the offense and decision-making, which is something Cutcliffe can teach. With the #1 defense coming to town next week, we will find out how much he improves this week.

While our passing game definitely isn't championship level, all we need to win the ACC Coastal championship is 5 more ACC wins, and our schedule breaks pretty well for that. BC and Wake as our OOD opponents.

Pghdukie
09-26-2015, 08:05 PM
Good teams show improvement through the season. Plus the injury bug stays away. Will the offense show improvement - we'll see. The defense has certainly carried their share of the load. Add in the league games tend to carry more weight.

Olympic Fan
09-26-2015, 08:10 PM
I'm curious as to how seriously people can think we can compete for a championship. I need to see at least some evidence of a competent offense before I start believing that. The past two games showed me the same thing: a decent running game for a quarter or so, and then defensive adjustments that leave us with absolutely no answer at all. Should I have any hope that Cutcliffe will develop some sort of answer for this offense, and particularly the quarterback play? I sure hope so, because (as somebody else mentioned on the other thread) this is probably our best defense since 1971 and I would sure hate to see this defense get worn down by the end of the year as that one did.

Wow ... haven't you heard, defense wins championships?

Duke is currently the only team in the ACC that's beaten a ranked opponent.

Seriously ... obviously the offense needs to get better. But, hey, teams do get better. It's not such a longshot. We have a young QB with some great physical skills. He should improve with experience. We have a decent OL and we've run the ball effectively against some tough defenses . We scored more points on Northwestern than Stanford did ... we scored more on Georgia Tech than Notre Dame did.

The schedule is in our favor. The defense looks better than at any time since the early 1970s. The special teams are back on track. Our 2013 team started slowly too -- and we're ahead of that pace (3-1 vs. 2-2).

Why isn't a championship feasible?

Wander
09-26-2015, 08:25 PM
I'm curious as to how seriously people can think we can compete for a championship.

A national championship, sure, our offense is no where close to good enough. But this question can't be answered in a vacuum - look around you at the ACC. We just beat the preseason division favorite, Virginia Tech just lost to East Carolina (again), Virginia just lost a game at home by over 40 points, we don't play FSU or Clemson, Pitt lost their best player to injury... I don't see any reason why the division title is out of the question.

duke09hms
09-26-2015, 08:42 PM
A national championship, sure, our offense is no where close to good enough. But this question can't be answered in a vacuum - look around you at the ACC. We just beat the preseason division favorite, Virginia Tech just lost to East Carolina (again), Virginia just lost a game at home by over 40 points, we don't play FSU or Clemson, Pitt lost their best player to injury... I don't see any reason why the division title is out of the question.

Yep, a Coastal championship is definitely POSSIBLE but way too early to make any prognostications. The issue with being so reliant on one side of the ball is that our margin of error is nil. We needed two huge special teams plays and a dominant defensive performance to hang on against GT, a team whose quality is still unknown. Don't forget, they were down 30-8 against ND late in the 4th before scoring those garbage time TDs. Them blowing out two cupcakes early on doesn't tell us anything about GT.

There are still so many toss-up games to come - BC (Northwestern clone), Miami/UNC (undisciplined talent who just might put it together against us), VT (always tough), and Pitt/UVA/Wake as the "more" likely wins but still far from gimmes. I feel like it's still way too soon for this thread, but I'm glad we're in the conversation.

One game at a time folks, and if that takes us to the ACC CG, hey one game at a time, and maybe HELLLLOO PLAYOFFS?!?!?!?

Beat BC!!

P.S. I regretted ever complaining about Boone today. He might be inaccurate, but he rarely threw dumb INTs.

P.P.S. GO GEORGIA TECH! BEAT UNC plzzzzzz

uh_no
09-26-2015, 09:22 PM
Beat BC!!

P.S. I regretted ever complaining about Boone today. He might be inaccurate, but he rarely threw dumb INTs.

P.P.S. GO GEORGIA TECH! BEAT UNC plzzzzzz

i remember a few untimely INTs in a few bowl games....

you're right, though. I contemplated making a full post comparing boone and what we've seen with sirk, but the crux is:

running: advantage sirk. he used the keeper several times today to very good effect. not that boone didn't or couldn't, but it wasn't a primary weapon in our offense
accuracy: advantage sirk. I think i remember one real stinker that he launched into the bench. on the ints, it wasn't that he was inaccurate, just that there happened to be an interleaved GT player that went unnoticed...Boone would miss that pass in the flat multiple times a game...sometimes it seemed like more than half the time...putting it in the dirt, behind the runner, into the bench, as well as missing receivers downfield high way more often than not.
arm strenght: advantage sirk. he often outthrows streaking receivers...it seems boone would usually come up sorter, forcing the receivers to make arcobat moves to catch it behind them

Deceision making: BIG advantage boone...usually. given the fact that sirk seemingly has so many checks in his column, why did we win so many games? if boone was innaccurate, he rarely put the ball in places that would get him in trouble (at least until he felt like he needed to "make something happen"....then it was a spin of the roulette wheel). we saw it last week, where sirk was convinced NW was "giving him the checkdown"....when it was quite clear that they weren't giving that at all (or to the tune of a yard a catch). The few clunkers today "how did you not see that guy????" It's like the game is just a smidgen to fast for him just yet. It's not just the trigger decisions, though. How many times did he decide to take the keeper option on 3rd and long only to come up 5 yards short? I remember 2 distinctly....and vaguely remember another.

Part of that, IMO is explainable by the fact that sirk's usage was situational before this year, mostly with set plays on the goal line. Boone, on the other hand, got plenty of reps while renfree was still in town, including a couple drives in the belk bowl, if i recall. COmbined with the 2 years off (redshirt/injury), Sirk's simply way behind. Cut said as much in his show (which they played in the stadium a couple hours before the game). What's optimistic is that he was better today than he was last week....many of the throws were aimed in FRONT of the line of scrimmage, which was a change! I expect him to have a steep learning curve and get better week by week.

Olympic Fan
09-26-2015, 09:52 PM
There are still so many toss-up games to come - BC (Northwestern clone), Miami/UNC (undisciplined talent who just might put it together against us), VT (always tough), and Pitt/UVA/Wake as the "more" likely wins but still far from gimmes. I feel like it's still way too soon for this thread, but I'm glad we're in the conversation.

One game at a time folks, and if that takes us to the ACC CG, hey one game at a time, and maybe HELLLLOO PLAYOFFS?!?!?!?


Of course, there are a lot of tossup games remaining. But the fact we beat the overwhelming favorite in the Coastal Division to open 1-0 in the ACC is a strong starting point. I don't think Duke has a sure win left in the conference (even Wake), but there's not a team we can't beat either. Keep in mind that only FSU and Clemson have won more ACC games than Duke since the start of the 2013 season. Nobody in the Coastal has been more consistent than us. In fact, only Georgia Tech (11 ACC wins) is close to us (12 ACC wins). Nobody else has more than 8 ACC wins in that span.

The truth is we don't have to beat everybody. A 6-2 ACC finish will most likely earn Duke a spot in the ACC title game (like it did in 2013, when we started 0-2 in the ACC). That's reasonable, even with a team that does have to get better on offense. Two years ago, our 0-2 ACC start could be blamed somewhat to the loss of Boone with a collarbone injury. But we also gave up 96 points in those two losses (38 to Georgia Tech and 58 to Pitt). Obviously our defense had to get better then -- and it did.

The one game at a time mantra is for players. We're fans. Of course we're going to speculate and look ahead.

PS The Boston College game means a lot. For one thing, it's a chance to open 2-0 in the ACC for the first time since 1994!

arnie
09-26-2015, 10:15 PM
Of course, there are a lot of tossup games remaining. But the fact we beat the overwhelming favorite in the Coastal Division to open 1-0 in the ACC is a strong starting point. I don't think Duke has a sure win left in the conference (even Wake), but there's not a team we can't beat either. Keep in mind that only FSU and Clemson have won more ACC games than Duke since the start of the 2013 season. Nobody in the Coastal has been more consistent than us. In fact, only Georgia Tech (11 ACC wins) is close to us (12 ACC wins). Nobody else has more than 8 ACC wins in that span.

The truth is we don't have to beat everybody. A 6-2 ACC finish will most likely earn Duke a spot in the ACC title game (like it did in 2013, when we started 0-2 in the ACC). That's reasonable, even with a team that does have to get better on offense. Two years ago, our 0-2 ACC start could be blamed somewhat to the loss of Boone with a collarbone injury. But we also gave up 96 points in those two losses (38 to Georgia Tech and 58 to Pitt). Obviously our defense had to get better then -- and it did.

The one game at a time mantra is for players. We're fans. Of course we're going to speculate and look ahead.

PS The Boston College game means a lot. For one thing, it's a chance to open 2-0 in the ACC for the first time since 1994!

Think Wake is a very likely win, UVA probable since they should be disinterested late in the year. Without Conner, would think we'd be favored over Pitt. Win those 3 and 2 of the others - that might do it. At the very least, with Wake and Army remaining, a bowl game seems very likely.

brevity
09-26-2015, 10:57 PM
...we don't play FSU or Clemson...

We might.

OldPhiKap
09-26-2015, 11:17 PM
Wow ... haven't you heard, defense wins championships?

Duke is currently the only team in the ACC that's beaten a ranked opponent.

Seriously ... obviously the offense needs to get better. But, hey, teams do get better. It's not such a longshot. We have a young QB with some great physical skills. He should improve with experience. We have a decent OL and we've run the ball effectively against some tough defenses . We scored more points on Northwestern than Stanford did ... we scored more on Georgia Tech than Notre Dame did.

The schedule is in our favor. The defense looks better than at any time since the early 1970s. The special teams are back on track. Our 2013 team started slowly too -- and we're ahead of that pace (3-1 vs. 2-2).

Why isn't a championship feasible?

Agree with all of this, but would add that our O line was better than decent IMO. Tech dialed up he net riot D in the second half, daring Sirk to beat them outside. We need to get better at that and I hope/expect us to do so.

Bob Green
09-27-2015, 08:08 AM
PS The Boston College game means a lot. For one thing, it's a chance to open 2-0 in the ACC for the first time since 1994!

I agree the Boston College game means a lot fortunately it means a lot for the right reason, it is an opportunity to open 2-0 in the ACC. A loss against Georgia Tech yesterday would have meant the BC game was vital as the team would be fighting to prevent an 0-2 start in the ACC.

Coach Cutcliffe called the GT victory a milestone win and I do not interpret his comment as either an overstatement or coach speak. Yesterday was huge. In his post game press conference (available in its entirety at GoDuke.com), Coach Cutcliffe said it will be important to see how the team responds to the win. The team's response to the Northwestern loss was positive, now the team has to show they can respond to a big win. I'm paraphrasing so I encourage anyone who is interested to go watch the press conference themselves. Coach Cutcliffe has interesting, thought provoking comments on many of the individual players such as Cash, Norman, Edwards, Smith, Powell and Duncan as well as the defense, special teams and offense as whole units plus he shares his thoughts on the targeting rule at the end.

Johnell Barnes will be ineligible for the 1st half against Boston College so this is an opportunity for another receiver to step up and perform.

TKG
09-27-2015, 11:38 AM
I heard their championship trophy didn't show up, though. They gave it an 'A' nonetheless.

Sounds like the academic philosophy for all the athletes at Orange County Community College: don't show up but get a A nonetheless.

uh_no
10-03-2015, 07:00 PM
Coastal division games have wrapped up for the week, and here's where we stand:

Duke beat BC (woot woot!)
UNC took down GT (:((()
Pitt took down VT

With the loss, VT obviously doesn't control their own destiny anymore, joining GT, who is now 2 games out.

Looking to next week:
GT @ Clemson (rivalry)
miami @ FSU (rivalry)
uva @ pitt
NCSU @ VT (OOD)

lots of out of division play going on, and obviously we root for all of those to lose. Another GT loss likely effectively eliminates them. Duke would have to lose 4 of their last 6 (knock on wood...).
A loss by VT or miami is not as condemning at this point, since it's not to a division rival, though if pitt wins, and VT loses, VT ends up in a rather tight spot.
I think the answer has to be to pull for uva over pitt...mostly because it seems uva stinks pretty good, and they have a slightly seemingly easier OOD, with cuse instead of UL.

That's it. duke's off from ACC play for the next two weeks, and the division will likely shake out a little by the time we run into vt.

uh_no
10-15-2015, 12:33 PM
In last week's action

Clemson kept GT in the "unvictorious" column
FSU beat down miami
pitt picked up another win over UVA
and state couldn't beat VT

Georgia tech has almost no shot of winning the coastal...as both Duke and UNC would have to go 4-4...and seeing as duke and UNC play each-other, at least one will pick up one, and both yet have uva, duke has wake...etc.

So basically, thanks for trying GT, try again next year. GT can be eliminated by the end of the month if UNC wins their next and duke wins their next 2....barring any losses for GT.

pitt picked up another win, also pulling them up to 2-0. With a win over another contender VT, they are looking like they have an early chance to make a good run. The GT game on saturday would be a nice time for them to pick up their first loss :D

So who controls their destiny? It's down to three this week, the undefeateds, UNC, Duke and Pitt.

So what's on tap for next week?
pitt @ gt
vt @ miami
WFU @ UNC (OOD)
cuse @ UVA (OOD)

I can't believe this is happening, but obviously we want GT to knock off pitt. When was the last season we actively were pulliing for GT to win games in conference? If pitt wins, though, it's not the end of the world, as Duke and UNC still have yet to give them a loss.

Obviously we must pull for WF and Syracuse..

The VT Miami game is the interesting one. Yes miami has a loss, but it was to FSU. VT has a relative cakewalk in, but already has a loss. If we chalk the clemson game up to a loss for miami, that puts them at best 6-2...which would give them all the tiebreakers. VT on the other hand, already lost to pitt, but could still finish 7-1 with a win. I think the root has to go to miami, putting each at best 6-2.

devildeac
10-15-2015, 12:53 PM
In last week's action

Clemson kept GT in the "unvictorious" column
FSU beat down miami
pitt picked up another win over UVA
and state couldn't beat VT

Georgia tech has almost no shot of winning the coastal...as both Duke and UNC would have to go 4-4...and seeing as duke and UNC play each-other, at least one will pick up one, and both yet have uva, duke has wake...etc.

So basically, thanks for trying GT, try again next year. GT can be eliminated by the end of the month if UNC wins their next and duke wins their next 2....barring any losses for GT.

pitt picked up another win, also pulling them up to 2-0. With a win over another contender VT, they are looking like they have an early chance to make a good run. The GT game on saturday would be a nice time for them to pick up their first loss :D

So who controls their destiny? It's down to three this week, the undefeateds, UNC, Duke and Pitt.

So what's on tap for next week?
pitt @ gt
vt @ miami
WFU @ UNC (OOD)
cuse @ UVA (OOD)

I can't believe this is happening, but obviously we want GT to knock off pitt. When was the last season we actively were pulliing for GT to win games in conference? If pitt wins, though, it's not the end of the world, as Duke and UNC still have yet to give them a loss.

Obviously we must pull for WF and Syracuse..

The VT Miami game is the interesting one. Yes miami has a loss, but it was to FSU. VT has a relative cakewalk in, but already has a loss. If we chalk the clemson game up to a loss for miami, that puts them at best 6-2...which would give them all the tiebreakers. VT on the other hand, already lost to pitt, but could still finish 7-1 with a win. I think the root has to go to miami, putting each at best 6-2.

Devildeac checking in with another vote for the team from W-S wearing black and gold and whatever other hues they've also added to their school colors.:rolleyes:

Or, as always 5570.

Olympic Fan
10-15-2015, 01:04 PM
The VT Miami game is the interesting one. Yes miami has a loss, but it was to FSU. VT has a relative cakewalk in, but already has a loss. If we chalk the clemson game up to a loss for miami, that puts them at best 6-2...which would give them all the tiebreakers. VT on the other hand, already lost to pitt, but could still finish 7-1 with a win. I think the root has to go to miami, putting each at best 6-2.

I think I'll just watch the Miami-VPI game without pulling either way -- I'd say it works out about equally for us either way. On second thought, I'll lean a little towards Virginia Tech. They are both threats, but I think Miami has more talent ... they just have a habit of squandering that talent (especially after a tough loss to FSU). I don't want them to get any momentum or confidence.

If we end up beating them head-to-head, it won't matter that much.

I'll pull hard for Wake at UNC -- but as much because the Cheats are the Cheats as the equally valid reason that it helps us in the Coastal. Unfortunately, I have little hope a Wake winning in Kenan.

The one I'm really focused on -- from the perspective of helping us in the Coastal -- it Pitt and Georgia Tech. I know that Tech has struggled (four straight losses -- although two were to top 10 teams and the other two to Coastal contenders Duke and UNC), but they are still a dangerous team -- we saw Johnson turn things around midway though last season. They still have a lot of the talent that won the Coastal a year ago and finished in the top 10 -- including Justin Thomas at QB. I haven't looked at the odds, but I think this game is really a tossup.

OldPhiKap
10-15-2015, 01:18 PM
I think I'll just watch the Miami-VPI game without pulling either way -- I'd say it works out about equally for us either way. On second thought, I'll lean a little towards Virginia Tech. They are both threats, but I think Miami has more talent ... they just have a habit of squandering that talent (especially after a tough loss to FSU). I don't want them to get any momentum or confidence.

If we end up beating them head-to-head, it won't matter that much.

I cannot really "root" for either of these teams. I do feel sorry that Beamer is hitting such a touch stretch and is likely in his last year of coaching. We have to beat them both, so kind of a wash for me.


I'll pull hard for Wake at UNC -- but as much because the Cheats are the Cheats as the equally valid reason that it helps us in the Coastal. Unfortunately, I have little hope a Wake winning in Kenan.

9F. All day, every day. Glad when other reasons align too.

The one I'm really focused on -- from the perspective of helping us in the Coastal -- it Pitt and Georgia Tech. I know that Tech has struggled (four straight losses -- although two were to top 10 teams and the other two to Coastal contenders Duke and UNC), but they are still a dangerous team -- we saw Johnson turn things around midway though last season. They still have a lot of the talent that won the Coastal a year ago and finished in the top 10 -- including Justin Thomas at QB. I haven't looked at the odds, but I think this game is really a tossup.

Boy, it's hard for me to pull for Paul Johnson. Four straight losses, and FSU next week -- this is as "much win" as anything they have left (okay, UGa still looms at the end of the year). I am torn on the "rather have Pitt lose a step in the conference race" versus "hate to play Pitt right after a loss" so I guess I'll have a cold beer or two and enjoy. Within ten minutes, I'll know for whom I shall root.


Good breakdown, my personal views in bold.

BigWayne
10-15-2015, 01:36 PM
The one I'm really focused on -- from the perspective of helping us in the Coastal -- it Pitt and Georgia Tech. I haven't looked at the odds, but I think this game is really a tossup.

Based on the current situation of numerical ratings, a lot of ACC games are essentially tossups that have to be won on the field. The teams basically break into 3 groups:

1) Clemson and FSU - Should be expected to win any game against the rest of the league.
2) UVA, Wake, BC, Syracuse - Should be expected to lose to the rest of the league. Tossups within the group.
3) Everybody else - should be underdogs or favored heavily against groups 1 and 2 and close to tossups against the main body of teams.

NCSU seems to be trying to get themselves into group 2 the last couple weeks but the numbers don't show it yet.

budwom
10-15-2015, 01:39 PM
I can't imagine any clarity for another two weeks, but I do agree with the general breakdown of groupings above.

Olympic Fan
10-15-2015, 03:06 PM
Boy, it's hard for me to pull for Paul Johnson. Four straight losses, and FSU next week -- this is as "much win" as anything they have left (okay, UGa still looms at the end of the year). I am torn on the "rather have Pitt lose a step in the conference race" versus "hate to play Pitt right after a loss" so I guess I'll have a cold beer or two and enjoy. Within ten minutes, I'll know for whom I shall root.

Interesting take as far as figuring your emotions out as the game plays out.

Last Sunday night, I turned on the Pats at the Cowboys. I hate both teams. I wasn't sure I could watch, but after five minutes I found myself pulling for the Cheating Patriots, hoping they would pour it on "America's (Self-Proclaimed) Team". Just the sight of Jerry Jones makes we want to kick in the screen. I'll go back to hating the Patriots next week.

Something similar happened when I was in college. I was at the ACC Tournament when South Carolina upset North Carolina in the Championship game. The next week, the East Regionals were in Raleigh and I had tickets. My friend and I went, planning to support the ACC champion, despite our distaste for Frank McGuire's thuggish program. Not five minutes into the game, we were standing in our seats, cheering for Penn ... and we came back the next day to cheer Digger Phelps' Fordham team past South Carolina in the consolation game.

To be fair, we didn't know what a douche Digger was at the time ... but we did know about the Gamecocks. No matter how much Duke hate is out there these days, it's not 1/10th -- not 1/100th, not 1/1000th -- of the hate ACC fans held for the Gamecocks in those days.

I guess my point is that sometimes our emotions dictate our attitudes. I'm pretty sure that I'll be pulling for the two Tech teams Saturday. But I won't know for sure until I sit back and start watching.

CameronBornAndBred
10-15-2015, 03:24 PM
ESPN's ACC blog takes note...

After the Duke Blue Devils knocked off the preseason favorite Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets a few weeks ago, safety Jeremy Cash proclaimed the Coastal Division now runs through Durham.


Bold?


Not really. Cash has a point.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/86855/look-whos-leading-the-coastal-again-its-duke

OldPhiKap
10-17-2015, 02:54 PM
It is SO hard to root for Paul Johnson . . . .

guess I can find a silver lining no matter how this one ends. Should be a good finish.

devildeac
10-17-2015, 03:40 PM
It is SO hard to root for Paul Johnson . . . .

guess I can find a silver lining no matter how this one ends. Should be a good finish.

Pitt has 3rd and 12 at the GT 36 with 1:30 to go. Not sure anyone can trust Pitt to kick a (potential) game-winning FG if they don't get the 1st down:rolleyes:.

devildeac
10-17-2015, 03:42 PM
Pitt has 3rd and 12 at the GT 36 with 1:30 to go. Not sure anyone can trust Pitt to kick a (potential) game-winning FG if they don't get the 1st down:rolleyes:.

Oh, my. Blewitt didn't this year. 56 yarder on 4th and 12 with 1:11 remaining.

n8lbs
10-17-2015, 03:42 PM
Not sure anyone can trust Pitt to kick a (potential) game-winning FG if they don't get the 1st down:rolleyes:.

Blewitt answered your skepticism with a 56 yard field goal.

Bob Green
10-17-2015, 04:17 PM
Virginia Tech at Miami is entertaining. Both offenses moving the ball at will in the 1st quarter. The Hokie quarterback, Motley, is demonstrating significant mobility.

Wander
10-17-2015, 04:31 PM
Well, our tiebreaker with Georgia Tech is almost certainly worthless now. Oh well.

Bob Green
10-17-2015, 05:09 PM
'Canes with the lead at the half. Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya is a very talented pocket passer. He is poised in the pocket and delivers accurate passes. Unless VT figures out how to get more pressure, Kaaya is going to continue to pick them apart across the middle.

Olympic Fan
10-17-2015, 05:20 PM
'Canes with the lead at the half. Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya is a very talented pocket passer. He is poised in the pocket and delivers accurate passes. Unless VT figures out how to get more pressure, Kaaya is going to continue to pick them apart across the middle.

Really bonehead move by Frank Beamer.

VPI ties the game with under 1 minute left, then get good kickoff coverage to hold Miami at the 19 with 52 seconds. Miami runs the ball, obviously planning to run out the half and go in to the lockerroom tied. But Beamer starts calling timeouts ... and after using two timeouts to stop the clock after running players, Miami hits a big pass on 3rd down, moves up on a penalty, then scores the TD 2with under 10 seconds left.

So Miami up 20-13 at the half.

Great late choke by Virginia too. They have the ball in a 14-14 game with under a minute left in the half. But Johns gets hit as he throws, the ball pops in the air and Syracuse gets it. On the first play after that, Dungey scrambles 30 yards for a TD to give the 'Cuse a 21-14 halftime lead.

Bob Green
10-18-2015, 06:26 AM
1. Pitt 3-0
2. Duke 2-0
3. UNC 2-0
4. Miami 1-1
5. UVa 1-1
6. VT 1-2
7. GT 0-4

uh_no
10-18-2015, 07:04 AM
In this week's action, unfortunately the coastal took out their cross division opponents, with UNC beating wake, and uva taking out syracuse.

In actual games, Blewitt didn't do so this year, and split the uprights for a 56 yard game winner. yeeha. GT is now officially eliminated from division contention. They would require pitt to lose all their remaining games, which would give UNC and Duke a third win each, with one of those two picking up a fourth against the other. WOW. I don't no if I've ever seen a team eliminated when most of the division has played only 2 games....but The Cut Blockers pulled it off.

Miami took down VT, which means after miami plays clemson next week, they'll each have 2 losses. Each still has an outside shot, as they have yet to play the 3 teams at the top of the division....but their records may currently be inflated, as they have yet to play the 3 teams at the top of the division.

Manifest Destiny:
Obviously the 3 undefeated teams are each in the driver's seat. This will most assuredly change a week from thursday, when UNC travels Pitt. Hide your locker rooms, kids, they're not safe.

Looking ahead to next week:

duke @ vt
FSU @ GT (OOD)
clemson @ miami (OOD)
uva @ UNC
pitt @ cuse (rivalry)

If duke were to beat VT, VT would be in a world of hurt, at 3 losses, with losses to pitt and UNC. They would effectively have to hope that the winner of duke and pitt dropped another two somewhere else (to unc???) but then they'd still have to have a UNC team with 3 losses, which is possible, but they'd need a lot to bounce their way.

GT isn't beating FSU in this universe or any other. 0-5 for a team with playoff aspirations? incredible.

Miami isn't beating clemson. This'll give them loss #2, and a 2 game buffer for the teams at the top. UVA is not worth including at this point IMO.

Obvoiusly we want UVA to beat UNC. They still would have a shot at the division, but I simply don't think they're good enough. Lets get duke a buffer at the top as soon as possible. go hoos.

maybe cuse can bounce back from their tough loss to uva?i'm not optimistic.



Meat of the schedule coming up. The winner WON'T go undefeated....would love for the other teams to pick up losses. It's quite possible the winner is 7-1, looking at remaining schedules.

budwom
10-18-2015, 09:52 AM
My chapeau is off to anyone who has clarity on the coastal division after yesterday. I got a good look at all the teams, and
frankly I could see us winning or losing any of the next four games (not that UVA and Wake will be easy).

Sorry to see Pitt win, but I can never be sad when Paul Johnson loses.

OldPhiKap
10-18-2015, 10:46 AM
My chapeau is off to anyone who has clarity on the coastal division after yesterday. I got a good look at all the teams, and
frankly I could see us winning or losing any of the next four games (not that UVA and Wake will be easy).

Sorry to see Pitt win, but I can never be sad when Paul Johnson loses.

Agreed with all of this.

Always pulling to win every game obviously, but it would be hard to be terribly disappointed if we go 3-1 over the next four. As long as the loss isn't against those cheating bastages from down the road. Given how even things are, would not be shocked at 2-2. All four are close to toss-up I think, including at VTech.

And I will admit I cheered when Blewitt hit that 56 harder. It just came out. As the old Stephen Colbert noted, you should always think with your gut and not your brain because there are more nerve endings in your gut than your brains. (He wasn't sure that was true, but it felt right in his gut).

arnie
10-18-2015, 05:32 PM
Really bonehead move by Frank Beamer.

VPI ties the game with under 1 minute left, then get good kickoff coverage to hold Miami at the 19 with 52 seconds. Miami runs the ball, obviously planning to run out the half and go in to the lockerroom tied. But Beamer starts calling timeouts ... and after using two timeouts to stop the clock after running players, Miami hits a big pass on 3rd down, moves up on a penalty, then scores the TD 2with under 10 seconds left.

So Miami up 20-13 at the half.

Great late choke by Virginia too. They have the ball in a 14-14 game with under a minute left in the half. But Johns gets hit as he throws, the ball pops in the air and Syracuse gets it. On the first play after that, Dungey scrambles 30 yards for a TD to give the 'Cuse a 21-14 halftime lead.
Vegas opened with VPI as a 6-pt fav - now dropped to 3.5. Kind if surprised it's not closer to Pick.

uh_no
10-19-2015, 12:04 AM
Vegas opened with VPI as a 6-pt fav - now dropped to 3.5. Kind if surprised it's not closer to Pick.

it's duke. duke has a ridiculous record agaainst the spread the past few years, i think.

OldPhiKap
10-20-2015, 06:58 AM
Props to Isaac Sours' football update on the front page today. Julio has stepped up football coverage on the front page, which is great for me and probably necessary on the SB Nation platform. If you are a poster here, Isaac, well done.

Olympic Fan
10-20-2015, 05:24 PM
I was just looking at this weekend's games and considering probabilities when I realized:

We like to say that as long as Duke is unbeaten, Duke has its fate in its own hands.

But I realized that even if Duke loses this weekend, Duke will STILL have its fate in its own hands.

Virginia Tech has already lost twice in the ACC, so even if they beat us, they need us to lose another game to make that relevant.

Duke still has to play the two teams with no ACC losses (Pitt and UNC) and the two teams with one ACC loss (Virginia and Miami). If the Devils lose to VPI and win out, then Duke is guaranteed the Coastal title -- and a spot in Charlotte -- no matter how many teams tie at 7-1 (technically, only one other team could get to 7-1 ... and we'd have beaten them head-to-head).

Obviously, that doesn't mean the Virginia Tech game is meaningless -- far from it. I'm not really counting on finishing 8-0 in the ACC (although that would be great). Important to win every ACC game possible.

Still, win or lose this week, we have our fate in our own hands going into the Miami game.

-jk
10-20-2015, 05:35 PM
How 'bout let's just win anyway...

;)

-jk

peloton
10-20-2015, 07:35 PM
My contribution to this thread is plain and simple. One...game...at...a...time. The most important game on the schedule is the Duke/VT game, without question in my opinion. While I enjoy prognosticating some myself, I'm sure Coach Cutcliffe is keeping this team grounded in regard to what could be accomplished with continued hard work and the right mentality. After all, we're not even bowl eligible yet. I think with a bit of improvement on the offensive unit's part this team has a high ceiling. It's going to be mighty fun to see what they're capable of the second half of the season. But back to Virginia Tech - I would love to see Duke assist in sending off Frank Beamer into retirement. Let's beat the stuffing out of the Turkeys.

BigWayne
10-23-2015, 05:52 PM
Saw this today in Mark Schlabach's prediction story....

2. Clemson will finish unbeaten and make the playoff

The No. 6 Tigers probably aren't getting nearly enough credit for what they've done so far this season. They'll win their next two road games at Miami and NC State to move to 8-0, and then they'll knock off No. 9 Florida State at Death Valley on Nov. 7, ending the Seminoles' 30-game winning streak against ACC foes. It will be smooth sailing for the Tigers from there, with regular-season games against Syracuse (road), Wake Forest (home) and South Carolina (road). Clemson will beat Duke in the ACC championship game to finish 13-0.

CameronBornAndBred
10-23-2015, 06:00 PM
Saw this today in Mark Schlabach's prediction story....

2. Clemson will finish unbeaten and make the playoff

The No. 6 Tigers probably aren't getting nearly enough credit for what they've done so far this season. They'll win their next two road games at Miami and NC State to move to 8-0, and then they'll knock off No. 9 Florida State at Death Valley on Nov. 7, ending the Seminoles' 30-game winning streak against ACC foes. It will be smooth sailing for the Tigers from there, with regular-season games against Syracuse (road), Wake Forest (home) and South Carolina (road). Clemson will beat Duke in the ACC championship game to finish 13-0.
Most of that is true.

OldPhiKap
10-23-2015, 06:16 PM
Happy to get there and see what happens.

uh_no
10-24-2015, 01:28 PM
miami getting spanked, as expected, cuse giving pitt a run for it's money...unexpected surprise.

budwom
10-24-2015, 02:04 PM
miami getting spanked, as expected, cuse giving pitt a run for it's money...unexpected surprise.

I expect Al Golden might get the Golden Parachute before dinner tonight. Hideous home defeat.

PSurprise
10-24-2015, 02:27 PM
I expect Al Golden might get the Golden Parachute before dinner tonight. Hideous home defeat.

I'm surprised he made it to the 3rd Quarter

Olympic Fan
10-24-2015, 07:52 PM
Well, the three unbeaten Coastal teams all won -- UNC slopped past Virginia, but they won a lot easier than Pitt, which needed a fake punt in the final minutes to beat Syracuse with a final play field goal. Of course, that game was as lopsided as Clemson-Miami compared to Duke's 4OT win over Va Tech.

So the two Techs are out of the Coastal race ... Miami and Virginia (two ACC losses each) are all but out of it.

That leaves Pitt, UNC and Duke. At this point, those are the last three teams that matter.

Pitt and UNC meet Thursday night in Pittsburgh.

Duke gets a reeling Miami ... Will Kaaya play? Will Al Golden still be on the sidelines for the 'Canes? Will Miami pack it in (as they have quite a few times in recent years) or will they get mad and bounce back?

uh_no
10-24-2015, 08:19 PM
This weeks games have wrapped up (with the exception of GT...but they were eliminated from contention last week.

The good guys beat the hokies, keeping pace with the other top teams
FSU will probably beat GT
clemson obliterated miami
UVA took the fight to UNC, but unce shut them out down the stretch
pitt needed blewitt to not blow it...and he didn't....for the second game in a row.

So where does that leave us?
Pitt is half way home, and duke and UNC are lurking in the background. So since we know GT is already eliminated. What would it take for the other teams to win the division?

Lets start from the Bottom (these discard some of the more interesting scenarios, like miami or virginia getting in the mix....which are certainly possible and could confound things)
VT:
Tech is now 1-3. The best they can finish is 5-3 with only a tiebreaker against UNC. So they'd need both pitt and duke to finish 4-4, and UNC to finish at BEST 5-3. Pitt has to lose out, that gets us to at least 4-4, meaning UNC would pick up wins against both us and Pitt, making them at worst 5-3. That would put them in a tiebreaker with VT, which VT would win.

So VT needs:
win out
pitt lose out
duke to lose out except to pitt
UNC to lose out except to pitt and duke

I think you can safely cross these guys off the list.

Miami:
Miami is now 1-2 with games yet against all the division leaders. Should they win out, they'd be 6-2 with all the relevant tiebreakers. The three undefeateds would have to pick up an extra loss somewhere (other than miami), which at least two of them will do against each other. Miami is still VERY much in the mix, despite the thwacking today, as they have get an atrocious GT team, a very mediocre UVA, and games yet against the three leaders.

UVA:
UVA is also 1-2, but in a much more difficult position since they've lost to pitt and UNC already. If they were to win out, they'd need duke to finish at best 6-2 and the others 5-3. I would put the odds of this at very low. It's within the realm of possibility....but there's little chance none of those teams gets to those numbers to knock out UVA (or that UVA goes undefeated.

So looking forward to next week.

week 9:
miami @ duke
gt @ uva
unc @ pitt
VT @ BC (rivalry)

At least one of the unbeatens will go down when UNC plays Pitt thursday even. Pitt would be at 5 with a win, which is a bit scary...as the opportunities for losses are dwindling (except for us of course), but I still think UNC is the more dangerous team, especially given pitt needing heroics two weeks in a row to beat thoroughly mediocre teams. plus ABC. A pitt win eliminates VT.

GT will likely still be looking for their first win against UVA. I bet they get it. If UVA loses they better hope pitt also lost, or they're eliminated. (note that pitt and and UNC would have to both lose out after that, and duke would have to lose against likely miami)

Not sure we care about VT much any more, but as we've now beaten them, we gotta root for them. It's almost absurdly impossible for them to win the division...and now that we've beaten them, we want them to finish as well as possible. beat BC. a VT loss eliminates them (best they can do is 4-4, and they already lost to pitt)

And last but not least, miami. We want duke to win! (duh!). I think people have been selling miami short. sure they got blown out today, but they've had a murderous schedule with clemson and FSU (and still duke UNC and pitt to come!). Plus they played FSU close, and beat a VT team that we had a lot of trouble with today (given without the running back guy). This one we shouldn't take for granted. HOWEVER, as was pointed out, the game doesn't matter too much. If we lose, we still control our destiny, as we still can force 1 loss to each of Pitt and UNC. It just gives us a bit less leeway down the stretch (especially if we DON'T beat BOTH unc and pitt...highly possible...or if we lose to some other in division rival).


So there you have it. another win, another step closer, someone will get a loss next week. lets just make sure Duke comes out tied for first on the other side!

eddiehaskell
10-24-2015, 08:57 PM
I wanna see 5 more wins in a row!!! That's a huge feat, but it's exciting when the football team gets a chance to be on the national scene this late in the season. I really hate to think ahead and possibly jinx things, but a win against Miami probably means a top 20 ranking. I think Wake and UVA are "should win" games - Pitt, UNC and Miami all seem like tough 50/50 games. Luckily, Pitt and Miami are both home games. If Duke and UNC both come in at 7-1, that may be the biggest Duke/UNC football game in my lifetime. The winner is probably close to a top 10 team and playing FSU/Clemson for the ACC championship. I believe Duke or UNC could give FSU/Clemson a good game.

uh_no
10-24-2015, 10:14 PM
well heidi-how about that

GT beat FSU.

doesnt change a thing in the coastal.

good for them.

dragoneye776
10-24-2015, 11:49 PM
Annoyed that GTech got its first ACC win against FSU. Diminishes the impact of the upcoming Clemson/FSU game. If Clemson wins, the win doesn't look as nice in its playoff resume. If FSU win, the ACC may not get a team in the playoff.

Cool thing to note, the three top Coastal team (Duke, Pitt, UNC) basically play a round robin the next three weeks. First is Pitt/UNC, then UNC/Duke, and then Duke/Pitt.

Devil in the Blue Dress
10-24-2015, 11:56 PM
Annoyed that GTech got its first ACC win against FSU. Diminishes the impact of the upcoming Clemson/FSU game. If Clemson wins, the win doesn't look as nice in its playoff resume. If FSU win, the ACC may not get a team in the playoff.

Cool thing to note, the three top Coastal team (Duke, Pitt, UNC) basically play a round robin the next three weeks. First is Pitt/UNC, then UNC/Duke, and then Duke/Pitt.
Based on the way Clemson is playing, they're not going to let anything or anybody diminish the impact of their play. FSU could be the one in trouble in that match up.

Olympic Fan
10-25-2015, 02:25 AM
I wanna see 5 more wins in a row!!! That's a huge feat, but it's exciting when the football team gets a chance to be on the national scene this late in the season. I really hate to think ahead and possibly jinx things, but a win against Miami probably means a top 20 ranking. I think Wake and UVA are "should win" games - Pitt, UNC and Miami all seem like tough 50/50 games. Luckily, Pitt and Miami are both home games. If Duke and UNC both come in at 7-1, that may be the biggest Duke/UNC football game in my lifetime. The winner is probably close to a top 10 team and playing FSU/Clemson for the ACC championship. I believe Duke or UNC could give FSU/Clemson a good game.

Don't know why you would say that -- over the past three seasons, Duke has been better on the road -- in 2013-15, Duke is 13-4 at home and 12-1 on the road (0-4 on neutral fields). Most of our big wins -- two wins at VPI, the win at UNC and last year's win at Georgia Tech -- were on the road.

But as for the FSU-Clemson matchup, I'm not sure if makes that much difference to Clemson's playoff chances -- they were already set up to make the playoffs if they finish unbeaten ... and miss the playoffs if they lose one. It does reduce the ACC's chances in that if FSU beats Clemson, there's a good chance neither makes the playoffs.

Just looking ahead some more and I realized that we're in the same situation this coming week as we were against VPI -- win or lose and we'll STILL have our fate in our own hands. Even with a loss to Miami, we could still finish 7-1 in the ACC and we would still win any tiebreaker (since Miami already has two losses). Again, winning this week is a big deal, but even a loss doesn't knock us that far back in the Coastal race.

uh_no
10-25-2015, 10:07 AM
Don't know why you would say that -- over the past three seasons, Duke has been better on the road -- in 2013-15, Duke is 13-4 at home and 12-1 on the road (0-4 on neutral fields). Most of our big wins -- two wins at VPI, the win at UNC and last year's win at Georgia Tech -- were on the road.

But as for the FSU-Clemson matchup, I'm not sure if makes that much difference to Clemson's playoff chances -- they were already set up to make the playoffs if they finish unbeaten ... and miss the playoffs if they lose one. It does reduce the ACC's chances in that if FSU beats Clemson, there's a good chance neither makes the playoffs.

Just looking ahead some more and I realized that we're in the same situation this coming week as we were against VPI -- win or lose and we'll STILL have our fate in our own hands. Even with a loss to Miami, we could still finish 7-1 in the ACC and we would still win any tiebreaker (since Miami already has two losses). Again, winning this week is a big deal, but even a loss doesn't knock us that far back in the Coastal race.

To be fair, we also have now, a win over GT, a win over miami, and win over UNC at home....so i'm not sure I'd say most.

We've had good wins both at home and on the road.

Olympic Fan
10-25-2015, 12:39 PM
To be fair, we also have now, a win over GT, a win over miami, and win over UNC at home...so i'm not sure I'd say most.

We've had good wins both at home and on the road.

The win over UNC at home was in 2012 -- not the 2013-15 time frame. And this year's win at home was over a much weaker Georgia Tech team than the one that won the Coastal a year ago. It's a good home win, but not as good as the 2014 road win in Atlanta (over a team that finished with 11 wins and an Orange Bowl victory)

The one great home win in the last three seasons was the 2013 win over Miami (balanced by our one road loss in that span -- at Miami).

So we have a better road record than home record and MOST of our best wins (not all) have come on the road.

Olympic Fan
10-25-2015, 12:55 PM
Sorry to double post, but I was thinking ...

The worst team in the Coastal just beat the second-best team in the Atlantic.

Well, I don't really think Georgia Tech is the worst team in the Coastal, but they were 0-4 and in last place before beating the Noles. In fact, they are STILL last in the Coastal even after beating FSU.

Anyway, I started looking. I think we will all concede that Clemson is the best team in the ACC and they are in the Atlantic. And FSU is probably the second-best team and they are in the Atlantic.

But overall, the Coastal is much stronger -- as of this moment, the Coastal is 6-3 in head-to-head matchups with the Atlantic.

Clemson has two of those wins (over Georgia Tech and Miami).

There are five more games left matching teams from the two divisions (six, if you count the ACC title game). I think the Coastal has two more pretty sure wins -- VPI at Boston College and Duke at Wake. I think the Atlantic has one more sure win (Virginia at Louisville ... two more if you count Clemson vs. the division champ in the title game). Two more are tossups -- Louisville at Pitt and UNC at NC State.

I think there is a very good chance that the deeper Coastal ends up with a significant edge on the top-heavy Atlantic.

arnie
10-25-2015, 03:41 PM
Sorry to double post, but I was thinking ...

The worst team in the Coastal just beat the second-best team in the Atlantic.

Well, I don't really think Georgia Tech is the worst team in the Coastal, but they were 0-4 and in last place before beating the Noles. In fact, they are STILL last in the Coastal even after beating FSU.

Anyway, I started looking. I think we will all concede that Clemson is the best team in the ACC and they are in the Atlantic. And FSU is probably the second-best team and they are in the Atlantic.

But overall, the Coastal is much stronger -- as of this moment, the Coastal is 6-3 in head-to-head matchups with the Atlantic.

Clemson has two of those wins (over Georgia Tech and Miami).

There are five more games left matching teams from the two divisions (six, if you count the ACC title game). I think the Coastal has two more pretty sure wins -- VPI at Boston College and Duke at Wake. I think the Atlantic has one more sure win (Virginia at Louisville ... two more if you count Clemson vs. the division champ in the title game). Two more are tossups -- Louisville at Pitt and UNC at NC State.

I think there is a very good chance that the deeper Coastal ends up with a significant edge on the top-heavy Atlantic.

Yes, and for all the local talk about how unfair for NCSU to have to compete in the Atlantic; in the past 3 years, the records between divisions has been 7-7 each year. In fact State head coach repeatedly rationalizes his horrible OOC schedules with statements re: ease of playing a Coastal schedule. The only ACC team that can talk tough scheduling is GATech by playing full Coastal, FSU and Clemson.

eddiehaskell
10-25-2015, 04:41 PM
Don't know why you would say that -- over the past three seasons, Duke has been better on the road -- in 2013-15, Duke is 13-4 at home and 12-1 on the road (0-4 on neutral fields). Most of our big wins -- two wins at VPI, the win at UNC and last year's win at Georgia Tech -- were on the road.
I'm not sure if your sample size is big enough to say there's actually something making Duke better on the road. I think if you were to ask the staff, they'd honestly rather play big games at home.

2013 included a 48-30 win over 9-4 Miami at home, but a loss to 6-7 Miami on the road in 2014.

We lost to Pitt at home 58-55 in '13 and came back to beat them on the road in '14 51-48 (2OT). Yeah, a good road win, but an extremely close shoot out at home too.

We beat VT on the road in '13 13-10 and lost to VT at home in 2014 16-17...both low scoring close games.

Obviously a down year for GT but beating them a home this year is still a good win.

The only thing that sorta stands out to me is beating UNC in '13 (by two) and losing at home the next year 45-20.

If anything I'd say we played well on the road and at home, but just happened to win a few more of the close ones while on the road.

Wander
10-25-2015, 04:53 PM
I'm not sure if your sample size is big enough to say there's actually something making Duke better on the road. I think if you were to ask the staff, they'd honestly rather play big games at home.

2013 included a 48-30 win over 9-4 Miami at home, but a loss to 6-7 Miami on the road in 2014.

We lost to Pitt at home 58-55 in '13 and came back to beat them on the road in '14 51-48 (2OT). Yeah, a good road win, but an extremely close shoot out at home too.

We beat VT on the road in '13 13-10 and lost to VT at home in 2014 16-17...both low scoring close games.

Obviously a down year for GT but beating them a home this year is still a good win.

The only thing that sorta stands out to me is beating UNC in '13 (by two) and losing at home the next year 45-20.

If anything I'd say we played well on the road and at home, but just happened to win a few more of the close ones while on the road.

I agree, and I'm not really sure what the point of the argument was. It's pretty obvious that it's better to play at home than on the road.

Bob Green
10-25-2015, 05:20 PM
I agree, and I'm not really sure what the point of the argument was. It's pretty obvious that it's better to play at home than on the road.

In 2013 conference games we were 2-2 at home and 4-0 on the road so we won twice as many games on the road. The point of the argument is in the very recent past Duke has been a good road team.

Wander
10-25-2015, 05:27 PM
In 2013 conference games we were 2-2 at home and 4-0 on the road so we won twice as many games on the road. The point of the argument is in the very recent past Duke has been a good road team.

The original statement was "luckily, [these important games] are both home games," with the implication that it's better for us to play at home than on the road. This is basically the most innocuous, least controversial statement one can make about sports. The fact that one can pick out subsections of time where we won more games on the road than at home doesn't change that at all. No said or implied we are a bad road team, and I agree with you that we are a good one.

Olympic Fan
10-25-2015, 06:12 PM
I agree, and I'm not really sure what the point of the argument was. It's pretty obvious that it's better to play at home than on the road.

Is it obvious?

So what that we've been better on the road than at home over the last 2 1/2 years. Forget the evidence ... it's OBVIOUS that playing at home is better.

(Actually, I don't necessarily think we play better on the road .. merely that our homefield edge is virtually non-existent. Maybe when we start filling up Wade with a crowd that approximates Cameron, that will change. But at the moment, there's no evidence that what you say is obvious is real ... the evidence is actually the other way -- our record is better on the road and MOST of our biggest wins have come on the road. I don't know why -- maybe it's better for the team to get away from classes and half-filled Wade(our last two home crowds have been just over 20,000 fans), to travel together and to bond on the road.)

eddiehaskell
10-25-2015, 11:41 PM
My point is - look at the scores instead of just wins and loses. With the exception of UNC it's not like we were getting blown out at home. We played well at home AND on the road. I don't think you can simply look at a couple 1-3 point defeats at home over the course of 3 seasons as evidence we are better on the road. Considering the close scores, play all those games over and maybe the home record is better. Do you really think the players and staff would rather play big games on the road? And heck, look at the 0-4 record on neutral fields where there's usually more fans pulling against Duke. If there's something in the road air, surely we'd have won some of those, right? Maybe we beat A&M and/or ASU in home games instead of losing by a combined 9 points.

arnie
10-27-2015, 08:20 AM
If Duke, Pitt and UNC all finish with a 7-1 ACC record (and each 1-1 against each other)the tie-breaker will be interesting. It appears that the championship game representative would be selected from the BCS standings? Except that if one team is within 5 positions of other leading team, then head-to-head is used (the third team would fall out). Is this interpretation correct?? Of course, its highly likely one of the teams will lose to someone else or one of the three will win both games. But if not, the Coastal championship appears to rely on BCS standings.

(Three team (or more) tiebreaker procedure will be used to break all ties to identify the Championship game representative. Once a team is eliminated from the tie, the tie-breaking procedures restart for the remaining teams. If the three (or more) team tie can only be reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaking procedure will then be applied).

Combined head-to-head winning percentage among the tied teams.
Winning percentage of the tied teams within the division.
Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference winning percentage, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken fi rst to last, using the league’s tie-breaking procedures.
Combined winning percentage versus all common non-divisional opponents.
Combined winning percentage versus all non-divisional opponents.
Winning percentage versus common non-divisional opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference winning percentage) and proceeding through other common non-divisional opponents based upon their divisional order of finish.
The tied team with the highest ranking in the full Bowl Championship Series Standings following the conclusion of regular season games, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the two-team tiebreaking procedure shall be applied between the top two ranked tied teams. If all tied teams are not ranked in the full Bowl Championship Series Standings, the computer ranking portion of the Standings will be used, eliminating the high and the low computer ranking, and averaging the remaining rankings.
The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee.

SCMatt33
10-27-2015, 08:59 AM
If Duke, Pitt and UNC all finish with a 7-1 ACC record (and each 1-1 against each other)the tie-breaker will be interesting. It appears that the championship game representative would be selected from the BCS standings? Except that if one team is within 5 positions of other leading team, then head-to-head is used (the third team would fall out). Is this interpretation correct?? Of course, its highly likely one of the teams will lose to someone else or one of the three will win both games. But if not, the Coastal championship appears to rely on BCS standings.

(Three team (or more) tiebreaker procedure will be used to break all ties to identify the Championship game representative. Once a team is eliminated from the tie, the tie-breaking procedures restart for the remaining teams. If the three (or more) team tie can only be reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaking procedure will then be applied).

Combined head-to-head winning percentage among the tied teams.
Winning percentage of the tied teams within the division.
Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference winning percentage, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken fi rst to last, using the league’s tie-breaking procedures.
Combined winning percentage versus all common non-divisional opponents.
Combined winning percentage versus all non-divisional opponents.
Winning percentage versus common non-divisional opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference winning percentage) and proceeding through other common non-divisional opponents based upon their divisional order of finish.
The tied team with the highest ranking in the full Bowl Championship Series Standings following the conclusion of regular season games, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the two-team tiebreaking procedure shall be applied between the top two ranked tied teams. If all tied teams are not ranked in the full Bowl Championship Series Standings, the computer ranking portion of the Standings will be used, eliminating the high and the low computer ranking, and averaging the remaining rankings.
The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee.

This is correct based on what I've read from the preseason ACC media guide. The only thing is that it's been updated to reflect the CFP replacing the BCS, so computers aren't a part of it. From this perspective, it would help tremendously if Pitt lost to ND next week, even if it doesn't directly affect the coastal race.

CDu
10-27-2015, 09:30 AM
Yes, and for all the local talk about how unfair for NCSU to have to compete in the Atlantic; in the past 3 years, the records between divisions has been 7-7 each year. In fact State head coach repeatedly rationalizes his horrible OOC schedules with statements re: ease of playing a Coastal schedule. The only ACC team that can talk tough scheduling is GATech by playing full Coastal, FSU and Clemson.

To be fair, the point about having to compete in the Atlantic is that they have virtually no shot at making the ACC championship. Yes, the middle/bottom of the Atlantic is worse than the top/middle of the Coastal. But they are forced to play FSU and Clemson every year, whereas the Coastal teams (Miami excluded) get several seasons where they don't face EITHER team. So every game in the Coastal is competitive (because there are a lot of good but not great teams), whereas you can all but pen in two losses for every non-FSU/Clemson team in the Atlantic.

Are there more "loseable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules? Sure. But there are more "winnable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules too.

And in terms of winning the ACC, a team in the Coastal could have to just beat one of FSU or Clemson on the right day, whereas a team from the Atlantic (not named FSU or Clemson) would likely have to beat both of them to pull it off, or have a very friendly tiebreaker scenario.

It's a totally different argument. The quality of the competition top to bottom is better in the Coastal. But the ceiling for Atlantic teams not named Clemson or FSU is lower than that for the Coastal teams.

tux
10-27-2015, 10:27 AM
To be fair, the point about having to compete in the Atlantic is that they have virtually no shot at making the ACC championship. Yes, the middle/bottom of the Atlantic is worse than the top/middle of the Coastal. But they are forced to play FSU and Clemson every year, whereas the Coastal teams (Miami excluded) get several seasons where they don't face EITHER team. So every game in the Coastal is competitive (because there are a lot of good but not great teams), whereas you can all but pen in two losses for every non-FSU/Clemson team in the Atlantic.

Are there more "loseable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules? Sure. But there are more "winnable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules too.

And in terms of winning the ACC, a team in the Coastal could have to just beat one of FSU or Clemson on the right day, whereas a team from the Atlantic (not named FSU or Clemson) would likely have to beat both of them to pull it off, or have a very friendly tiebreaker scenario.

It's a totally different argument. The quality of the competition top to bottom is better in the Coastal. But the ceiling for Atlantic teams not named Clemson or FSU is lower than that for the Coastal teams.

This is a fair analysis of the situation. But, what I find funny, is that folks take the *current* state of affairs and argue that some re-alignment, etc. needs to be done. When the divisions were first formed, having VT, GT, and Miami in the coastal didn't look so "easy". And, you know what, FSU and Clemson aren't guaranteed to be the two best teams next year, or 5 years from now. I realize that's sorta an obvious point, but it needs to be said. To a certain extent, the football schools the ACC added have played down to ACC levels more than they've elevated the ACC's profile. Hopefully, that changes in the near future.

arnie
10-27-2015, 10:36 AM
To be fair, the point about having to compete in the Atlantic is that they have virtually no shot at making the ACC championship. Yes, the middle/bottom of the Atlantic is worse than the top/middle of the Coastal. But they are forced to play FSU and Clemson every year, whereas the Coastal teams (Miami excluded) get several seasons where they don't face EITHER team. So every game in the Coastal is competitive (because there are a lot of good but not great teams), whereas you can all but pen in two losses for every non-FSU/Clemson team in the Atlantic.

Are there more "loseable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules? Sure. But there are more "winnable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules too.

And in terms of winning the ACC, a team in the Coastal could have to just beat one of FSU or Clemson on the right day, whereas a team from the Atlantic (not named FSU or Clemson) would likely have to beat both of them to pull it off, or have a very friendly tiebreaker scenario.

It's a totally different argument. The quality of the competition top to bottom is better in the Coastal. But the ceiling for Atlantic teams not named Clemson or FSU is lower than that for the Coastal teams.

Yes, you are absolutely correct that winning the Atlantic is much more difficult at the present time. I'm simply arguing against the perception that Duke has is it so easy, while State's schedule is so difficult; therefore, State should only schedule patsies (see Dave Doeren and Giglio with N&O). Of course if Miami hires Butch Davis and they pick up the UNC AFAM curricula for athletes, the top of Coastal strength could change quickly. We need another ESPN 30 for 30 with The U 2.0.

Indoor66
10-27-2015, 11:59 AM
My head is about to explode. How about we let them play for three more weeks before we start this permutation plan?:mad:

CameronBornAndBred
10-27-2015, 12:26 PM
This is a fair analysis of the situation. But, what I find funny, is that folks take the *current* state of affairs and argue that some re-alignment, etc. needs to be done. When the divisions were first formed, having VT, GT, and Miami in the coastal didn't look so "easy".
So very true. Less than 10 years ago, immediately prior to Cut's arrival on campus, there was a very real chorus of people calling for Duke to drop from FBS status, or to do away with our football program all-together. 6 years later, we were playing for an ACC championship.

uh_no
10-27-2015, 01:14 PM
My head is about to explode. How about we let them play for three more weeks before we start this permutation plan?:mad:

HA. I've been updating this since the first week of the season!

What fun would life be if we didn't challenge ourselves to do mental gymnastics, figuring out things which have no business being figured?

Indoor66
10-27-2015, 01:47 PM
HA. I've been updating this since the first week of the season!

What fun would life be if we didn't challenge ourselves to do mental gymnastics, figuring out things which have no business being figured?

Yeah. Angels & Pinheads. :)

BD80
10-27-2015, 02:04 PM
So very true. Less than 10 years ago, immediately prior to Cut's arrival on campus, there was a very real chorus of people calling for Duke to drop from FBS status, or to do away with our football program all-together. 6 years later, we were playing for an ACC championship.

So you're saying that we are a Cut above where we were?

jimsumner
10-27-2015, 02:13 PM
So, we're agreed that the best thing for Duke is to hope that both Pitt and UNC lose on Thursday night? :)

luvdahops
10-27-2015, 02:20 PM
To be fair, the point about having to compete in the Atlantic is that they have virtually no shot at making the ACC championship. Yes, the middle/bottom of the Atlantic is worse than the top/middle of the Coastal. But they are forced to play FSU and Clemson every year, whereas the Coastal teams (Miami excluded) get several seasons where they don't face EITHER team. So every game in the Coastal is competitive (because there are a lot of good but not great teams), whereas you can all but pen in two losses for every non-FSU/Clemson team in the Atlantic.

Are there more "loseable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules? Sure. But there are more "winnable" games on the Coastal teams' schedules too.

And in terms of winning the ACC, a team in the Coastal could have to just beat one of FSU or Clemson on the right day, whereas a team from the Atlantic (not named FSU or Clemson) would likely have to beat both of them to pull it off, or have a very friendly tiebreaker scenario.

It's a totally different argument. The quality of the competition top to bottom is better in the Coastal. But the ceiling for Atlantic teams not named Clemson or FSU is lower than that for the Coastal teams.

Don't Georgia Tech and Clemson play each year too?

CameronBornAndBred
10-27-2015, 02:22 PM
So, we're agreed that the best thing for Duke is to hope that both Pitt and UNC lose on Thursday night? :)
5616

CDu
10-27-2015, 03:35 PM
Don't Georgia Tech and Clemson play each year too?

Yes, somebody is Clemson's regular partner. I think it is indeed Georgia Tech. So add them to Miami in the "teams who get screwed" column.

davekay1971
10-28-2015, 11:52 AM
I thought, as the season moves on, this is a good time to start a thread on the race to win our football division.

Certainly the pundits, pre-season, didn't see the contest as it is currently shaping up. IIRC, Duke was predicted to be dead last (shocking!). I think GaTech and VaTech were expected to battle for first in the Coastal, and, obviously, that has not turned out as predicted either.

At this moment, UNC, Duke, and Pitt are all one loss teams, undefeated in the Coastal. And all of the teams are very, very close to having undefeated records. UNC gave away the South Carolina game. Pitt lost at the last second to an undefeated Iowa team (on the road). And Duke, of course, was in control against Northwestern before our offense collapsed in the second half. We were one or two plays away (particularly the turnover deep in NW territory toward the end of the first half) from winning that game. Not only are the three top teams in the Coastal unexpected contenders, all three are very, very good (one of them cheats, of course, but we all know that).

This weekend, Duke gets a big mystery with Miami - very talented, now with an interim coach, humiliated by Clemson last weekend. And Pitt and UNC get each other. The first half of the Coastal conference play is closing out in very interesting fashion, and setting up for a close, hotly contested second half of conference play.

uh_no
10-28-2015, 11:55 AM
I thought, as the season moves on, this is a good time to start a thread on the race to win our football division.


http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36483-Coastal-Division-Championship-Picture

it's been going on since week 5 :)

davekay1971
10-28-2015, 02:24 PM
Missed that! Oh well. Been remarkable to see what Duke, Pitt, and UNC are doing, and all very much under the radar, given how close we are to each of those teams being undefeated. One wonders, without each team having one close loss, how much national attention or respect this race would get! Sorry to jump in late and miss the existing thread! Spending too much time on the OT board, clearly!

devildeac
10-28-2015, 02:30 PM
Missed that! Oh well. Been remarkable to see what Duke, Pitt, and UNC are doing, and all very much under the radar, given how close we are to each of those teams being undefeated. One wonders, without each team having one close loss, how much national attention or respect this race would get! Sorry to jump in late and miss the existing thread! Spending too much time on the OT board, clearly!

But clearly not enough time here:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?3840-Ymm-Beer

;)

duke blue brewcrew
10-29-2015, 07:00 PM
GO PITT, beat those CHeaters!

duke09hms
10-29-2015, 08:03 PM
Looks like UNCs defense is finally fixed. Up 13-3 at Pitt deep into the 2nd.

Yep and they just forced a TO in Pitt territory.

duke09hms
10-29-2015, 08:12 PM
UNC offense explosive as usual. 20-3 in one series. Coupled with newly solid defense. Dangerous team for us next weekend.

OldPhiKap
10-29-2015, 08:22 PM
Ugh.

sagegrouse
10-29-2015, 09:53 PM
Ugh.

Also, the Heels figured out a way to get two extra days to prepare for their arch-rival.

OldPhiKap
10-29-2015, 09:57 PM
Also, the Heels figured out a way to get two extra days to prepare for their arch-rival.

Yup, that bothers me too.

We can't choose the obstacles before us though, all we can do is fight to overcome them. 9F. Beat Miami, then move to the next.

OldPhiKap
10-29-2015, 10:12 PM
Blewitt

dragoneye776
10-29-2015, 10:48 PM
I remember a post a while ago wondering about Duke's chances at making the playoff. While I agree that Duke has no shot at the playoff, the strength of these coastal teams probably gives us the best shot we'll have in a while.

We are currently ranked #22 (and #18 in Coaches), let's say that improves to #17 after we beat Miami by a large margin. (These rankings are all biased estimates of course)

UNC beats Pitt (UNC becomes ranked at ~20-25) and Pitt drops out of rankings
Duke beats UNC (win over ranked team gets us up from #17 to ~12)
Pitt beats Notre Dame (Pitt comes back into rankings at ~15-20)
Duke beats Pitt by a large margin (improve from #12 to ~8)

Say by then Baylor drops a few games because their quarterback is out, and TCU gets upset because their defense has been so bad. LSU gets a few losses as SEC teams beat each other up. Then it'll be #8 Duke vs #2 Clemson in the ACC Championship game. If your disbelief has been suspended this far, then if Duke beats Clemson (and Northwestern comes back to being a decent ranked team), this will be the closest shot we'll have at the playoff for a really long time.

Let's say the conference champs are
Big10 - Ohio State
SEC - LSU (but has 2 losses)
Big12 - TCU (but has a bad upset to poor defense all season)
Pac12 - Stanford (but has same loss as we do to Northwestern)
ACC - Clemson (only loss to Duke in ACC Championship game)
Duke - ACC Champ, beat #20 UNC, #17 Pitt, #2 Clemson, only loss to #18 Northwestern (if only we beat Northwestern!)

bob blue devil
10-30-2015, 07:12 AM
bringing point from other thread since it's more relevant here - if unc wins its next game against duke, their odds of winning the coastal are really good, ~80% type good (napkin math). their remaining schedule after duke is miami, @vtech, @ncsu. they would need to drop 2 of those 3 AND duke or pitt would need to go undefeated (they play head-to-head and then duke has the much easier path w/@uva and @wfu vs. hosting lou and mia).

BigWayne
10-30-2015, 11:34 AM
We need to take care of business this week at home and next week down the road in Cheatville. Most of the permutations will be happy ones after that.

Bob Green
10-30-2015, 03:29 PM
We need to take care of business this week at home and next week down the road in Cheatville. Most of the permutations will be happy ones after that.

Exactly. Win the games and everything will be fine.

Speaking of Carolina, a team with a very good offense, an interesting fact on Head Coach Fedora, he was 12-2 winning the Conference USA Championship in his fourth season at Southern Mississippi, after going 22-17 the first three seasons. His first three seasons at UNC, he is 21-17.

JasonEvans
11-01-2015, 10:54 AM
Would I be correct in stating that if we win out, we are still Coastal champs, right? Carolina would have a loss but our win would give us the tiebreak over them. Everyone else would have at least 2 losses.

-Jason "so the Miami loss really does not matter... at least that is what I will keep telling myself :mad:" Evans

uh_no
11-01-2015, 10:57 AM
we know the results. not going to bother with them

Controls their own destiny:
UNC. Obviously still undefeated.
Duke. If duke were to win out, they would have the tiebreaker over UNC. They lost their margin for error though.

Still alive: everyone except GT
VT kept their hopes alive with UNC beating pitt. they need unc to beat duke and duke to beat pitt, so that duke and pitt finish 4-4 and unc finishes 5-3

UVA and miami kept their hopes alive with wins. Finishing 6-2 might be enough, though, as miami still has games against unc and pitt...that would be a turnaround...uva is in a tougher position, only aving duke left


week 10:
duke @ UNC
uva @ miami

root for UVA.

If duke loses, their title hopes are all but shot. that would put UNC at 5-0 and duke at 3-2. duke would have to win out to get to 6-2 and unc lose out at 5-3. If they both finish 6-2, it depends on who else finishes up here. if miami gets there, they'll likely win the division with their losses coming OOD. Otherwise, it's UNC all the way. So in either case, with a loss against UNC, duke would almost assuredly lose any tiebreaker situation.

The answer is clear: win this week. there is no other option.

OldPhiKap
11-01-2015, 10:57 AM
Would I be correct in stating that if we win out, we are still Coastal champs, right? Carolina would have a loss but our win would give us the tiebreak over them. Everyone else would have at least 2 losses.

-Jason "so the Miami loss really does not matter... at least that is what I will keep telling myself :mad:" Evans

This is correct, and I am sure this is Cut's message today. Well, that and we need to play better in all three phases if we want to make that happen.

uh_no
11-21-2015, 04:06 PM
yeah i stopped updating....but UNC clinched.

barf.

Isaac Sours
11-22-2015, 01:54 AM
Props to Isaac Sours' football update on the front page today. Julio has stepped up football coverage on the front page, which is great for me and probably necessary on the SB Nation platform. If you are a poster here, Isaac, well done.

Silly me, responding to threads over a month old. I had been wondering what people thought, though, and since we're getting closer to the end of the season I figured I'd check my mentions. I appreciate the props. Football updates every Monday, if you haven't noticed by now :)

superdave
11-22-2015, 09:42 AM
yeah i stopped updating...but UNC clinched.

barf.

When does this get vacated? They better hurry up and get their "championship" rings before the Ncaa gets after them.