K and Cut get some CBS Eye on College BBall Love

[Billy Dat]

"The Trifecta: Which program has the best football and basketball combo?"
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25314272/the-trifecta-which-program-has-the-best-football-and-basketball-combo

The Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, Sam Vecenie triumvirate produce a great podcast, are fun Twitter follows and produce solid blog posts and articles. They have been doing some great preseason coverage and they give the K/Cut combo some decent love in this piece, especially Norlander.

[Kedsy]

"The Trifecta: Which program has the best football and basketball combo?"
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25314272/the-trifecta-which-program-has-the-best-football-and-basketball-combo

The Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, Sam Vecenie triumvirate produce a great podcast, are fun Twitter follows and produce solid blog posts and articles. They have been doing some great preseason coverage and they give the K/Cut combo some decent love in this piece, especially Norlander.

On the other hand, Parrish also picked Duke to be the team most likely to not live up to its preseason expectations this season.

[Billy Dat]

On the other hand, Parrish also picked Duke to be the team most likely to not live up to its preseason expectations this season.

There's a lot of Duke and K gushing throughout the piece, even when Parrish picks Duke to not live up to Top 10 predictions. Parrish is a real character when you listen to him, a motor-mouthed Southern boy who goes on extended riffs, Norlander is more the laconic Northeast hipster and Vecenie is the Left Coast chillwave newbie (he replaced Jeff Goodman last year) who is most prominent on the recruiting beat.

[Kedsy]

On the other hand, Parrish also picked Duke to be the team most likely to not live up to its preseason expectations this season.

So this got me thinking, how likely are we not to live up to preseason expectations in 2015-16? Historically, how has Duke under Coach K done in the year after a Final Four season?



Year Next pre-season AP Next final AP Next NCAAT
---- ------------------ ------------- -------------
1986 unr 17 16
1988 1 9 4
1989 10 15 2
1990 6 6 1
1991 1 1 1
1992 3 10 32
1994 8 unr n/a
1999 10 1 16
2001 1 1 16
2004 11 3 16
2010 1 3 16
2015 ? ? ?


So in our previous 11 Final Fours, the following season we have failed to meet our pre-season ranking five times, and either met or exceeded our pre-season ranking six times. But in 2011 we were pre-season #1 and ended #3 after arguably our best player missed almost the whole season, so I'm not counting that as failing to meet pre-season expectations. And 1995 shouldn't really count for anything, since Coach K missed most of the season. And in two of the other seasons when we failed to meet our pre-season ranking (1989 and 1990), we made the Final Four again. Really, the only legitimate entry on the bad side of this ledger was 1993 (and even then we finished in the top 10).

Perhaps more interesting, in the season following a Final Four under Coach K, we've either been ranked in the top 3 in the final AP poll or made the Final Four (or both) eight out of the eleven times (not including this season, obviously). The only years one of these things didn't happen were 1987, 1993, and 1995 (which, again, should really get an asterisk). Each of the last four times we've made the Final Four (again, not counting 2015), the following season we were ranked in the top 3 of the Final AP poll (and then got knocked out in the Sweet 16, so it's not all candy and roses).

Obviously past isn't necessarily prologue, etc., etc. But it's interesting.

[Wander]

So in our previous 11 Final Fours, the following season we have failed to meet our pre-season ranking five times, and either met or exceeded our pre-season ranking six times. But in 2011 we were pre-season #1 and ended #3 after arguably our best player missed almost the whole season, so I'm not counting that as failing to meet pre-season expectations. And 1995 shouldn't really count for anything, since Coach K missed most of the season. And in two of the other seasons when we failed to meet our pre-season ranking (1989 and 1990), we made the Final Four again. Really, the only legitimate entry on the bad side of this ledger was 1993 (and even then we finished in the top 10).

Perhaps more interesting, in the season following a Final Four under Coach K, we've either been ranked in the top 3 in the final AP poll or made the Final Four (or both) eight out of the eleven times (not including this season, obviously). The only years one of these things didn't happen were 1987, 1993, and 1995 (which, again, should really get an asterisk). Each of the last four times we've made the Final Four (again, not counting 2015), the following season we were ranked in the top 3 of the Final AP poll (and then got knocked out in the Sweet 16, so it's not all candy and roses).

Obviously past isn't necessarily prologue, etc., etc. But it's interesting.

Even the greatest coach of all time isn't the difference between a team missing the NIT and making the Final Four.

[Kedsy]

Even the greatest coach of all time isn't the difference between a team missing the NIT and making the Final Four.

First of all, that's the one thing you take from my post? Huh.

Second, I never suggested the 1995 team would have made the Final Four. The question was whether or not that team would have lived up to its pre-season ranking. And while it seems unlikely given how that team ended up, I think we can't really say with any certainty.

Duke was ranked #11 in the country when Coach K stepped away (and was #7 in the country before his final game, which Duke lost by just 5 points while K was obviously distracted by the pain). The remaining 19 games included six (6!) one-possession losses and four other losses by 7 or fewer points (plus four wins, meaning only five losses without Coach K were decided by 10 or more points). I would argue that the "greatest coach of all time" might have been the difference in 7 or 8 wins (maybe even 10 or more if the team had built confidence and gotten on a roll) which likely would have gotten us into the NCAA tournament. Would the team have lived up to its pre-season ranking? Again, it seems unlikely now, but who knows how it would have gone if K had been there and healthy?