FB: Duke vs. Northwestern 9/19 12:30 EDT

[Henderson]

Duke opens as a 1 point favorite, and the line quickly moved to -3.

[duke blue brewcrew]

Might as well get this thread started.

Both teams are 2-0 with impressive wins. Duke opened as a 1 point favorite. That's now been bet in Vegas to 3 points. So early money says Duke by a field goal. What do the experts at DBR say?

It's 12:30 EDT. Sorry for the mistake. Can a mod correct the title?

I personally love the respect Duke is getting against a ranked opponent, that's awesome! I'm hoping Jela is back for this game. Until now, Duke has not needed him. However, now that Duke has a ranked Power 5 match-up, having Duncan as a weapon to plug into the game-plan would be HUGE! Speaking of huge, Duke's D has been impressive up to this point. Now that the Blue Devils are facing some higher caliber bullets this coming weekend, it will be interesting to see how that part of the story plays out. GO DUKE!

[duke79]

Where will the game be televised? ESPN3?

[Henderson]

Where will the game be televised? ESPN3?

Yes, I'm showing ESPN3. Could change.

[Olympic Fan]

Where will the game be televised? ESPN3?

There is another thread about this. The game is on ESPN3, but also on the ACC Network.

I don't have the complete list, but the ACC Network is nation-wide -- 125 stations in all, including all 10 of the nation's top 10 markets.

[duke blue brewcrew]

There is another thread about this. The game is on ESPN3, but also on the ACC Network.

I don't have the complete list, but the ACC Network is nation-wide -- 125 stations in all, including all 10 of the nation's top 10 markets.

Here's the full list for local and national:

http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/How-to-watch-Duke-vs-Northwestern-39406979

[rasputin]

There is another thread about this. The game is on ESPN3, but also on the ACC Network.

I don't have the complete list, but the ACC Network is nation-wide -- 125 stations in all, including all 10 of the nation's top 10 markets.

I've been pleasantly surprised the last couple of years in having an independent station here in St. Louis as part of the ACC Network. Even got to see a few of our FB games in HD.

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting story today ... apparently a Northwestern defensive lineman tweeted out a prediction that Northwestern would shut Duke out ... nice bulletin board material. Reminds me of 1971, when Duke headed west to play No. 10 Stanford and their QB Don Bunce predicted a 42-0 Stanford win ... Duke won 9-7.

Interesting that Northwestern comes to Durham ranked No. 23 ... Duke has beaten ranked teams the last two years -- No. 16 Virginia Tech in 2013 and No. 22 Georgia Tech in 2014. But both of those games were on the road -- Duke hasn't beaten a ranked team at home since 1994, when No. 23 Duke beat No. 13 Virginia.

The last time an unranked Duke team beat a ranked team? That would be a year earlier, when in Barry Wilson's last home game, unranked Duke upset No. 22 NC State in a quagmire of mud. The game came three days after Wilson announced his resignation, effective at the end of the season.

[brevity]

Interesting story today ... apparently a Northwestern defensive lineman tweeted out a prediction that Northwestern would shut Duke out ... nice bulletin board material.

It's a third party tweet (https://twitter.com/ChrisBunn21/status/643445847267635200) that includes a video. Not sure if you can post a video to a bulletin board. Wait, DBR is a kind of bulletin board, so I guess I just did.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=258&v=PtygrUa5GjE

Go to the 4:25 mark. Northwestern DL Ifeadi Odenigbo sounds like he's speaking generally about a defense that has gone two games without allowing a touchdown and is trying to get better. Sports motivation is subjective, so believe what you want, but it's not like he's obviously calling Duke out or anything. He wasn't asked about Duke until later.

[duke79]

Here's the full list for local and national:

http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/How-to-watch-Duke-vs-Northwestern-39406979

Is the ACC Network on DISH?

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Is the ACC Network on DISH?

Here's a link to a complete listing of stations in The ACC network for this coming Saturday:
http://www.theacc.com/news/acc-football-on-the-acc-network-northwestern-at-duke-09-19-2015

[Olympic Fan]

Go to the 4:25 mark. Northwestern DL Ifeadi Odenigbo sounds like he's speaking generally about a defense that has gone two games without allowing a touchdown and is trying to get better. Sports motivation is subjective, so believe what you want, but it's not like he's obviously calling Duke out or anything. He wasn't asked about Duke until later.

The exact quote (from the 4:25 mark in your video) is Northwestern DL Ifeadi Odenigbo saying, "For next week, we expect to hold the team ... we expect to have a shutout."

Parse that any way you want ... it sounds like bulletin board material to me.

[OldPhiKap]

We have a ranked team coming into town, and the game is widely seen as pretty close to pick-em. I have trouble believing that we need more motivation than that.

[Native]

Duke hasn't beaten a ranked team at home since 1994, when No. 23 Duke beat No. 13 Virginia.

Wasn't 2013 Miami (http://espn.go.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=333200150) ranked?

[Isaac Sours]

Wasn't 2013 Miami (http://espn.go.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=333200150) ranked?

You, my good sir, are correct. They were 24th in the nation. We beat them at home, by multiple touchdowns, on the back of like 300+ rushing yards.

[JetpackJesus]

Here's a link to a complete listing of stations in The ACC network for this coming Saturday:
http://www.theacc.com/news/acc-football-on-the-acc-network-northwestern-at-duke-09-19-2015

Thanks for posting that link. I thought Honolulu had a ACC Network affiliate based on last season, but I couldn't remember for certain or what channel. Now I can set my DVR in case I don't wake up in time to catch the 6:30 a.m. start. And I won't waste time cursing ESPN 3 for not having the game up.

[Bob Green]

A quick read:

http://dailynorthwestern.com/2015/09/14/sports/football-northwestern-enters-top-25-fitzgerald-downplays-importance/


Fitzgerald stressed that Duke will pose a serious challenge for NU, calling the Blue Devils “the fastest team we’ve played yet this year.”

[loran16]

Football Outsiders has its statistical measures up already for this season, although right now they're probably 2/3 preseason projections and 1/3 actual results (due to the tiny sample size). For those unfamiliar, they have two measures, S&P+ and FEI, which are merged into their combined metric F/+. Unfortunately, the run/pass projections aren't up at the moment. Here's what they say about the game:

Northwestern Offense vs Duke Defense:
NW Offense S&P+ = #121 in the Nation,
Duke Defensive S&P+ = #19 in the Nation.

Garbage Offense vs Strong Defense. Northwestern's Offense relies on the rush - in 2 games they have 123 carries to 40 passes. Their average is good but not great so far. Duke's defense has been historically bad vs the rushing game, but has been stout so far this year. This will be the first real test in this regard. Note that their freshman QB can scramble for yardage - dude had 68 on the ground vs Stanford. Bottling up running QBs has always been a Duke issue. One thing that should help is NW is apparently dealing with injuries to the OLine.

Duke Offense v Northwestern Defense:
Duke Offense S&P+ = #91 in the Nation
NW Defensive S&P+ = #8 in the Nation

Bad Offense vs Elite Defense. The stats don't love Duke's offense so far. This is mainly due to projections I'm sure, but also, the #s aren't particularly impressed by Tulane's D (Ranked #82 in the Country), so the credit for doing well against it is less than you'd think (and even less credit is given to a 1-AA win). By contrast, Northwestern's D is supposed to be elite. Stanford's O isnt good at all, but NW shut it completely down. The NW Defense last year was pretty balanced - good vs both run and pass. This will be a HUGE step up for Sirk and the offense.

----------
Overall, Duke is projected to be the better team, but it's close. It's at home so we should win. But the #s suggest this is going to be a very low scoring game with a lot of punts. Avoiding turnovers will be huge, as is making the most of our field position and special teams.

[duke blue brewcrew]

A quick read:

http://dailynorthwestern.com/2015/09/14/sports/football-northwestern-enters-top-25-fitzgerald-downplays-importance/

Interesting article. Their OL issues should help Duke's DL to some degree, and hopefully impact how the Blue Devils are able to attack the NW offense. I liked Coach Fitzgerald's comments about Duke and Coach Cut at the end, that was a nice tip of the cap.

[Billy Dat]

Small tangent - Cut, all class all the time

https://twitter.com/JamesConner_/status/643783765043642368

[duke blue brewcrew]

Small tangent - Cut, all class all the time

https://twitter.com/JamesConner_/status/643783765043642368

Another proud moment for all Duke fans, thanks for sharing!

[luvdahops]

A quick read:

http://dailynorthwestern.com/2015/09/14/sports/football-northwestern-enters-top-25-fitzgerald-downplays-importance/

I am pretty familiar with both programs. I believe Duke will have a big speed advantage in this one, as Northwestern does not have the same kind of dynamic playmakers on either side of the ball, although their secondary is very good, and perhaps only a notch below Duke's. But none of their WRs or RBs are real breakaway threats, and while QB Clayton Thorson is a solid dual-threat guy, he is not in Sirk's class as an athlete. However, despite some musical chairs and injuries on the OL, NW's line play has generally been very strong on both sides; they completely dominated Stanford in the trenches. The Wildcats are very good at pounding the ball on the ground, mixing in short passes and chewing clock, while occasionally taking shots downfield. Duke's front seven will hopefully be up for the challenge.

[devildeac]

Looks like the line this AM is Duke -3. I'd be reeaal happy with a 14-10 Duke victory. (or 14-13, or 17-16 or 10-7:o)

[Dev11]

We have a local Duke Admissions event starting 3 hours after the game begins on Saturday and I'm on the panel. Will they mind if I ignore the potential future students and just watch the game on my phone?

[devildeac]

We have a local Duke Admissions event starting 3 hours after the game begins on Saturday and I'm on the panel. Will they mind if I ignore the potential future students and just watch the game on my phone?

If your phone's big enough, you could have several potential future students watch the end of the game with you;).

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

We have a local Duke Admissions event starting 3 hours after the game begins on Saturday and I'm on the panel. Will they mind if I ignore the potential future students and just watch the game on my phone?

Perhaps this is a screening opportunity ......

[Bob Green]

It seems Shaun Wilson is not impressed by the NU shutout talk:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article35358366.html

It is true that NU defense hasn't given up a touchdown this season. It is also true that NU defense hasn't faced Duke's offense this year. I'm expecting a low scoring game, but points will be scored. FWIW (not much) Duke 20, Northwestern 14 is my prediction. It should be a great Saturday afternoon of football.

[devildeac]

It seems Shaun Wilson is not impressed by the NU shutout talk:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article35358366.html

It is true that NU defense hasn't given up a touchdown this season. It is also true that NU defense hasn't faced Duke's offense this year. I'm expecting a low scoring game, but points will be scored. FWIW (not much) Duke 20, Northwestern 14 is my prediction. It should be a great Saturday afternoon of football.

Hell, I'll be happy if we don't score a TD and beat them 9-7 on the strength/accuracy of Ross Martin's legs/3 FGs.

[Bob Green]

Game preview from a Northwestern site:

http://www.insidenu.com/2015/9/16/9328835/northwestern-duke-football-preview-three-matchups-to-watch

The three match-ups:

1. Shaun Wilson and Thomas Sirk vs. Northwestern's front seven - Advantage Northwestern
2. Justin Jackson vs Duke's front seven - Advantage Northwestern
3. Ross Martin vs Jack Mitchell - Advantage Duke

[duke blue brewcrew]

Game preview from a Northwestern site:

http://www.insidenu.com/2015/9/16/9328835/northwestern-duke-football-preview-three-matchups-to-watch

The three match-ups:

1. Shaun Wilson and Thomas Sirk vs. Northwestern's front seven - Advantage Northwestern
2. Justin Jackson vs Duke's front seven - Advantage Northwestern
3. Ross Martin vs Jack Mitchell - Advantage Duke

1. The author for this article get's an F for research, and thinking outside the box score. It doesn't feel like he considered the talent on Duke's O-Line at all when writing this section on Wilson & Sirk vs. NW Front 7. He only considered
NW's talent and what two individuals have done in two games against outclassed opponents where neither player competed for the entirety of the game.
2. The author does nearly the same thing when considering Jackson vs. the Duke Front 7. There's no mention of upgraded talent by Duke other than a dismissive statement about what Duke has done so far this year, and how awful they were
last year against the run. I wonder what the author will be thinking when he see's Duke's 8th man in the box, Mr. Cash?! It's clear that the author thinks Jackson is far more comparable to James Conner than Badie or McClain. Saturday will
tell us more about that issue.
3. Ehh...he got one right just by looking at a box score and career stats.

[Pghdukie]

Will weather be a factor ?

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Will weather be a factor ?

Muggy is in the forecast along with lots of sun and a high in the mid to high 80s.

[duke blue brewcrew]

Muggy is in the forecast along with lots of sun and a high in the mid to high 80s.

That's perfect Duke Football weather for welcoming in a northern team. I know it get's hot in Chicago too during the summer, but that SE humidity will smack you in the face if you're not used to it.

[Bob Green]

A couple of comments from Coach Cutcliffe's radio show last evening:

1. On Northwestern's defense, they are big, physical and disciplined. Every player knows his assignment and is where he is suppose to be.

2. On Shaun Wilson, he has the talent to be a special player. His performance against Kansas last year, where he set the Duke single game rushing record, was not a fluke. He can consistently be that good when healthy. After the Kansas game, Wilson hurt his ankle and then struggled with turf toe so he was not healthy the remainder of the season. Wilson is healthy now.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

A couple of comments from Coach Cutcliffe's radio show last evening:

1. On Northwestern's defense, they are big, physical and disciplined. Every player knows his assignment and is where he is suppose to be.

2. On Shaun Wilson, he has the talent to be a special player. His performance against Kansas last year, where he set the Duke single game rushing record, was not a fluke. He can consistently be that good when healthy. After the Kansas game, Wilson hurt his ankle and then struggled with turf toe so he was not healthy the remainder of the season. Wilson is healthy now.

It's apparent in Shaun's series of tweets that he's well and ready to go..... the tweets followed the Northwestern comments about expecting a shut out and other examples of being insufficiently informed about this year's Duke team.

[MarkD83]

We have a local Duke Admissions event starting 3 hours after the game begins on Saturday and I'm on the panel. Will they mind if I ignore the potential future students and just watch the game on my phone?

This reminds me of a business dinner I attended once. It was during a Duke-UNC game and I kept stepping out to the bar to catch the score. I then noticed that one of the group from our customer was also stepping out every 10-15 mins. We crossed paths in the bar, found out we both went to Duke and then spent the rest of the night at the bar. Instant points with the customer.

So...as a test of their potential as Duke students I would turn on the game and the ones that join you get some positive points. (Only kidding.)

[-jk]

This reminds me of a business dinner I attended once. It was during a Duke-UNC game and I kept stepping out to the bar to catch the score. I then noticed that one of the group from our customer was also stepping out every 10-15 mins. We crossed paths in the bar, found out we both went to Duke and then spent the rest of the night at the bar. Instant points with the customer.

So...as a test of their potential as Duke students I would turn on the game and the ones that join you get some positive points. (Only kidding.)

Meh... My mother had to duck out of her son's wedding rehearsal dinner a bit early to make a tipoff. And almost everyone understood...

-jk

[UT Dukie]

I was married March 31, 2001. Lots of Carolina fans present. I was one of two Duke fans "stepping away" from the wedding reception for trips to the bathroom (by large screen TVs). One bathroom trip took much of a second half, I'm afraid. Oh, and wife is a Carolina grad.

[nocilla]

Here is the Northwestern Q&A with Steve Wiseman of the Herald Sun.

http://www.insidenu.com/2015/9/17/9338581/northwestern-duke-football-matchup-preview-q-a/in/9090142

[budwom]

That's perfect Duke Football weather for welcoming in a northern team. I know it get's hot in Chicago too during the summer, but that SE humidity will smack you in the face if you're not used to it.

I know this is a popular theme, but it just isn't true. NW is a very well conditioned team as evidenced by how they simply wore down Stanford. We may well win the game, but the old Yankees Can't Take the Heat
theory will not be a factor.

[Bob Green]

Here is the Northwestern Q&A with Steve Wiseman of the Herald Sun.

An excellent overall job by Steve Wiseman answering the questions. The only thing I would add is when evaluating Duke's passing game one must take into account the running backs. Both Shaquille Powell and Shaun Wilson are superb receivers coming out of the backfield on wheel routes and dump passes.

[devildeac]

I know this is a popular theme, but it just isn't true. NW is a very well conditioned team as evidenced by how they simply wore down Stanford. We may well win the game, but the old Yankees Can't Take the Heat
theory will not be a factor.

Don't know what the weather was like in Chicago all week but yesterday it was 83 degrees and 56% humidity. At the same time, in Derm, it was 82 degrees with 58% humidity. Dew points in both zip codes were darn near the same. Budwom is astute but he also live in Vermont where they use all their humidity to make beer:rolleyes::o.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I know this is a popular theme, but it just isn't true. NW is a very well conditioned team as evidenced by how they simply wore down Stanford. We may well win the game, but the old Yankees Can't Take the Heat
theory will not be a factor.

We had much the same discussion about Duke playing in New Orleans earlier this season. I'm happy for no rain mostly because it will be more comfortable to watch the game in our beautiful stadium. These two teams are so closely matched, as Coach Cutcliffe and others have observed, that we can anticipate a great game.

[budwom]

Don't know what the weather was like in Chicago all week but yesterday it was 83 degrees and 56% humidity. At the same time, in Derm, it was 82 degrees with 58% humidity. Dew points in both zip codes were darn near the same. Budwom is astute but he also live in Vermont where they use all their humidity to make beer:rolleyes::o.

as a sign of the apocalypse, DD, we have been having crazy warm weather up here in Vermont for the past two weeks, a number of record highs. Several 90s last week, 85 the past few days with more to come thru Saturday.
We complaineth not as the ice floes will surely descend on us in due time...(normal high temp for today is 70)....

I can't wait to see how we do vs. NW's defense, which is genuinely stout....I don't think this will be easy at all...(i'll be there to supervise, but probably can't stop by the tents given
the early (again, again, again) start time.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

as a sign of the apocalypse, DD, we have been having crazy warm weather up here in Vermont for the past two weeks, a number of record highs. Several 90s last week, 85 the past few days with more to come thru Saturday.
We complaineth not as the ice floes will surely descend on us in due time...(normal high temp for today is 70)....

I can't wait to see how we do vs. NW's defense, which is genuinely stout....I don't think this will be easy at all...(i'll be there to supervise, but probably can't stop by the tents given
the early (again, again, again) start time.

I, too, look forward to seeing the offensive and defensive match ups.

[devildeac]

as a sign of the apocalypse, DD, we have been having crazy warm weather up here in Vermont for the past two weeks, a number of record highs. Several 90s last week, 85 the past few days with more to come thru Saturday.
We complaineth not as the ice floes will surely descend on us in due time...(normal high temp for today is 70)....

I can't wait to see how we do vs. NW's defense, which is genuinely stout....I don't think this will be easy at all...(i'll be there to supervise, but probably can't stop by the tents given
the early (again, again, again) start time.


The O/U on this game is 49, IIRC from this AM's News and Observer listing. I know what I'd take if I were a betting man.

[Bob Green]

Uniform for the game:

5502

[luvdahops]

Uniform for the game:

5502

Very nice! This and the Blue helmet/White jersey/Blue pants are my favorite combos by a wide margin.

[Dev11]

Very nice! This and the Blue helmet/White jersey/Blue pants are my favorite combos by a wide margin.

I wish the blue on the helmet matched the blue on the jersey, but oh well.

[loran16]

The Football Outsiders/Study Hall projection for this game, using FO's F/+ metric, is now up here:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/17/9341289/college-football-picks-predictions-tv-schedule-week-3

The projection is: Duke 22.4, Northwestern 14.6.

[nocilla]

ESPN's David Hale suggest that Duke needs to improve it's ground game.

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/85594/dukes-ground-game-needs-to-improve-against-northwestern

He says that Duke's ypc has been dropping since mid way through last season. I wonder if the vanilla play calling is one reason we haven't seen an improvement in our first 2 games?

[NSDukeFan]

The Football Outsiders/Study Hall projection for this game, using FO's F/+ metric, is now up here:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/17/9341289/college-football-picks-predictions-tv-schedule-week-3

The projection is: Duke 22.4, Northwestern 14.6.

I would even be ok with Duke 22, Nortwestern 15.

[devildeac]

I would even be ok with Duke 22, Nortwestern 15.

Cool. 5 Ross Martin FG and a 95 yd KO return for Edwards and PAT takes care of the scoring for the good guys and Northwestern can still brag their defense hasn't given up a TD yet this year;).

[duke79]

I wish the blue on the helmet matched the blue on the jersey, but oh well.

I agree with you....and I'd like to see the jersey the color of the helmet. I prefer the deeper shade of blue (although I realize that may not be the true "Duke blue").

Otherwise, this is a good look for Duke.......classic with a slightly modern touch.

[Bob Green]

ESPN's David Hale suggest that Duke needs to improve it's ground game.

He says that Duke's ypc has been dropping since mid way through last season. I wonder if the vanilla play calling is one reason we haven't seen an improvement in our first 2 games?

While his overall point might have traction, some of the examples he uses are misleading.


But even against the woeful North Carolina defense of 2014, Duke still mustered just 3.82 yards-per-rush.

Duke quickly fell behind 14-0 and had to play catch up all game. Teams playing from behind tend to throw the ball.


For the first half of last season, the Blue Devils had one of the ACC’s best running games, averaging 5.97 yards per rush on non-sack plays — ninth-best among Power 5 programs. In the final five games of 2014, however, that number plummeted to just 3.85 yards-per-carry, 55th in the Power 5 during that stretch.

The yards per carry statistic is skewed by long runs. Wilson had runs of 69, 68 and 45 yards against Kansas and a 26 yard run against Elon; Thomas Sirk had a 50 yard run against Tulane. In the second half of the season, Wilson was less than 100 percent healthy and Sirk's playing opportunities were limited to short yardage situations.

I don't totally disagree with Hale's statement Duke needs to run the ball better, but I do believe he is guilty of cherry picking stats. This week's game against Northwestern is going to show us a lot about the offense.

[Acymetric]

While his overall point might have traction, some of the examples he uses are misleading.



Duke quickly fell behind 14-0 and had to play catch up all game. Teams playing from behind tend to throw the ball.



The yards per carry statistic is skewed by long runs. Wilson had runs of 69, 68 and 45 yards against Kansas and a 26 yard run against Elon; Thomas Sirk had a 50 yard run against Tulane. In the second half of the season, Wilson was less than 100 percent healthy and Sirk's playing opportunities were limited to short yardage situations.

I don't totally disagree with Hale's statement Duke needs to run the ball better, but I do believe he is guilty of cherry picking stats. This week's game against Northwestern is going to show us a lot about the offense.

This was almost my exact thought when I read that article. Hard to keep those kinds of numbers up all season.

[snowdenscold]

We will stand a house divided come Saturday, as my wife is a Northwestern grad. I normally would never be able to get her to watch any college football game, but she's actually willing to watch this one "with" me...

[luvdahops]

Cool. 5 Ross Martin FG and a 95 yd KO return for Edwards and PAT takes care of the scoring for the good guys and Northwestern can still brag their defense hasn't given up a TD yet this year;).

Something that hasn't gotten much mention thus far is that Duke will have a significant advantage on special teams. Our kickers and returners are demonstrably better than Northwestern's, and our coverage units probably rate a slight edge as well.

[MCFinARL]

I wish the blue on the helmet matched the blue on the jersey, but oh well.

Yes--but it is better than the blue of the stripe and D emblem on the white helmets from last week--that looked like turquoise.

[94duke]

The "shiny" blue doesn't look particularly good on any of the helmets (blue, white, or black). I think it's the metallic/shiny paint. The blue should be matte like the rest of the colors.

[duke blue brewcrew]

We are under the 24hrs and counting mark until kick-off Duke fans. That always makes the rest of the Friday go smoother...home stretch time! GO DUKE!

[OldPhiKap]

Big game, big test. Get 'er done, Devils!

[riverside6]

Live stats for the game here...

http://www.scacchoops.com/northwestern-at-duke-football-live-stats-09192015

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Not exactly a full house from what I've seen on the TV.

Devon Edwards is the man.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Can we get chat for those of us unable to watch please?

Go Duke!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Sirk with a nice physical run for the TD. 7-0 Duke.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Most of the work has been on the ground thus far. Shaq Powell also had a nice run on that drive, where he plowed ahead with a pile of defenders on him for an extra ten yards or so.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Impressed by Duke's physical play on both sides of the ball so far. Gang tackling Northwestern's runners.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Pretty please, chat?

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Jeremy Cash just destroyed an option play. 6 yard loss.

And then on the next play he's twenty yards downfield in pass coverage. Dude is everywhere.

[Papa John]

Good point... Why is DBR chat not open for football games? Someone who has the capability to do so should open it up, as I'm sure there are plenty of folks who would love to jump in and share observations...

That aside, thus far we've played a solid game, particularly on D. Northwestern is not an offensive juggernaut, mind you, but we've stuffed the run for the most part, with the exception of their first play from scrimmage. On the other side of the ball, I think we need to run on 3rd and less than 5 more than we are [there have been a couple of times where it's clear that NW is dropping back into coverage on 3rd and 4, and a run call between the tackles might have gained a first down], but other than that we're moving the ball against a solid D. Cannot complain with our performance. Go Devils!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

The new guy in the #3 jersey looks like he's 8 years old. Also he just ran backwards 5 yards and then fumbled the ball out of bounds. I miss the old #3.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Good point... Why is DBR chat not open for football games?

Usually it is. As someone stuck in a hospital room for the next 36 hours, would love it today.

[Papa John]

The new guy in the #3 jersey looks like he's 8 years old. Also he just ran backwards 5 yards and then fumbled the ball out of bounds. I miss the old #3.

Rahming is going to be a special player—that was a youthful mistake...

[nyesq83]

Dang it's only the end of the first quarter. Played conservatively. Ball protection. Love Duke!

We have gotten away with lots of mistakes so far...

[Mabdul Doobakus]

So far, these two QBs are averaging less than 3 yards per pass attempt. A more impressive array of checkdowns and dumpoffs you will never see. I mean, they're actually combining for about 4 yards per completion. 45 yards on 11 combined completions.

[jjasper0729]

So far, these two QBs are averaging less than 3 yards per pass attempt. A more impressive array of checkdowns and dumpoffs you will never see. I mean, they're actually combining for about 4 yards per completion. 45 yards on 11 combined completions.

I was about to comment on the fact that our passes, with the exception of two or three so far have all been sideways and they snuff it out after 1 or 2 yards.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

With both offenses stuck in mud, this game seems likely to be decided by special teams and turnovers.

Sirk with 2 more completions for 3 more yards total.

[nyesq83]

I think we got away from aggressive play and are now being too conservative on offense. Northwestern has found confidence on D
.
.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I was about to comment on the fact that our passes, with the exception of two or three so far have all been sideways and they snuff it out after 1 or 2 yards.

There was that one slant that went for 15 yards, which was about 8 or 9 yards over the middle in the air, and that one tremendously inaccurate shot downfield, and that's all I can think of.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

We are eating these option plays alive.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Northwestern finally has an open receiver downfield, hits the guy in both hands, and he drops it. Another punt.

Excellent punting so far.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Will Monday is killing it today. 57 yards punt. Averaging 50+ on 5 punts.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Northwestern punts again. There have been 3 punts in the last 6 minutes of real time (not game time). The punts are coming fast and furious. Duke is slowly inching their way down field by virtue of Will Monday being about 5 yards better per punt than the Northwestern punter. Another 10 punts or so and we'll be in field goal range.

[nyesq83]

Sirk's inaccuracy downfield is affecting the playcalling, I fear. He can throw long, but can he throw tight/accurate?

Defensive struggle.

We need some speed. We need a misdirection play executed to perfection.

We need stamina, we need to not get frustrated. Oh Lucas Patrick made a mistake.

We are making them work.

[duke79]

Duke O-Line needs to give Sirk more time to pass downfield.

[jjasper0729]

I thought he was touted as having an accurate downfield arm. We have only thrown it downfield more than 10 yards once. That's a super small sample size. They are starting to stack the box because we aren't making them give a cushion. Maybe it's a trap but it's going to lead to some frustration potentially.

[ChrisP]

Bad unsportsmanlike penalty there. We finally had some decent field position and then...a boneheaded move knocks us back :(

[Mabdul Doobakus]

ULTRAconservative. Cut is understandably very pleased with the play of the defense and doesn't want to give Northwestern any help. It's not very exciting to watch, but it may be the right strategy. This is the football equivalent of stall ball.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

McCaffrey with a big play on a free play on the Northwestern offsides. Turns a very short pass into a big gain.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

FG here would make this a two score game which might be insurmountable with only 35 minutes left to play.

[duke09hms]

MAX MCCAFFREY! huge conversion on 3rd and five. Accurate pass under pressure, good hands!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Ugh. Interception on a pass into the flat. Huge mistake.

[ChrisP]

Well, that stinks :(

[duke09hms]

Defense is gonna have to save our rear this game. After years of replacing and reloading on the O-line, I think we've finally taken a step back this year.

[grossbus]

Too many passes into the flat!! Like we used to do. Inervating.

[ChrisP]

Just...ugh!!!

[grossbus]

Fumble by Wilson. Dang.

[duke09hms]

cmon defense, we gonna need you guys to stand up!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Laura Keeley ‏@laurakeeley 7 minutes ago
On throwback day, Duke & Northwestern doing their best to throw it back to the era before offense was a thing. 8 combined 3 & outs.

9 now.



Duke with turnovers on two straight plays. Exactly what we can't do. And as bad as the Sirk was turnover was, this one is on our side of the field and now gives Northwestern serious life.

[duke09hms]

Is it Northwestern's kicker that's inaccurate? I think I read that somewhere ...

[Mabdul Doobakus]

OMG. Three straight turnovers. Maybe.

[ChrisP]

Please let that be an iincomplete pass!

[nyesq83]

I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. you gotta be kidding me.

[jjasper0729]

It's getting easy to anticipate swing passes since that's all we are doing. Everything is sideways :/

[Papa John]

D has been absolutely solid thus far. O has been wildly inconsistent. We should be entering halftime up 14-0, but will likely head in up 7-3... That's a 10-point swing due to offensive sloppiness... Some poor play-calling on O... I'd like to see more zone read, fewer screens, and would be nice to see us take some shots downfield if we elect to pass the ball...

[grossbus]

Slow learners. Same play Nearly a TD for them. Throw the ball DOWN the field.

[duke09hms]

Who the hell is playing RT for us? Guy is getting abused

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Phew. We lucked out. That was PROBABLY a forward pass, but we have to something other than just throw the pass in the flat time and time again because they're jumping that route, clearly.

[duke09hms]

Who starts on offense in 2nd half?

[jjasper0729]

They've figured out that if the back leaks out to the right side, then it's probably a pass in the flat. They aren't trying to get to Sirk a that point because they can jump up and bat it down or tip it and intercept it like the one end did. We've got to go between the tackles or do a sweep outside and then go downfield, not in the flat with all these swing passes.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

D has been absolutely solid thus far. O has been wildly inconsistent. We should be entering halftime up 14-0, but will likely head in up 7-3... That's a 10-point swing due to offensive sloppiness... Some poor play-calling on O... I'd like to see more zone read, fewer screens, and would be nice to see us take some shots downfield if we elect to pass the ball...

I'm very disappointed. I know we're winning, and the defense has been tremendous. But we had a chance to go up two scores and instead the offense, despite playing ultraconservative, has managed to hand Northwestern 3 points. Playing THIS conservative should minimize your mistakes.

Will Monday is on fire.

[nyesq83]

Sorry for wanking, I wrote a version of "fudge"

[duke09hms]

Will Monday, Duke MVP

[grossbus]

Our punter is our best offensive weapon.

Can't stand our play selection.

Cut. "Don't want offense to play in a box". Please.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Who calls the plays? Is it Cut? Our offensive performance seemed like it had more to do with playcalling and gameplanning than any other factor. We're playing in a box, sure. Whose fault is that?

[nyesq83]

T Sirk looks like Renfree during the Army game - bonehead.

He is better than this, he is not looking for opportunity, and the Dbacks are keying on his short stuff.

[Papa John]

Will Monday, Duke MVP

Disagree... Monday has been so-so thus far... He's put 3 punts in the end zone that should have been inside the 20. His job is not simply to boom punts, it's also to pin the other team inside their own 20, and he's done a poor job of that when given the opportunity today...

Cut is spot-on. D has been amazing, and the O has been playing in a box. O needs to be more aggressive—couldn't agree more...

[6th Man]

Our punter is our best offensive weapon.

Can't stand our play selection.

Cut. "Don't want offense to play in a box". Please.

I was glad to hear Cut frustrated with play calling. I'm guessing he gives Montgomery an earful at the half. I'm enjoying watching the defense play. Best I have seen a Duke defense look.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Disagree... Monday has been so-so thus far... He's put 3 punts in the end zone that should have been inside the 20. His job is not simply to boom punts, it's also to pin the other team inside their own 20, and he's done a poor job of that when given the opportunity today...

Cut is spot-on. D has been amazing, and the O has been playing in a box. O needs to be more aggressive—couldn't agree more...

I think that's a little unfair. I understand your point, but most of his punts have been from Duke's side of the field, and at that point you're just trying to kick the crap out of the ball because that's generally going to end up with the ball landing inside the 20. He's just kicking it better than anyone--including himself--would expect. I don't remember any punts coming from Northwestern's side of the field that landed in the end zone. His net punting average is still probably astronomical.

Top net punting average in the NFL last year was 43.3 yards. Sirk's gross is 55.3. With the 3 touchbacks and 12 return yards for Northwestern, his net should be around 45 yards. Not bad.

[nyesq83]

No zip on the Sirk tosses

[Papa John]

I think that's a little unfair. I understand your point, but most of his punts have been from Duke's side of the field, and at that point you're just trying to kick the crap out of the ball because that's generally going to end up with the ball landing inside the 20. He's just kicking it better than anyone--including himself--would expect. I don't remember any punts coming from Northwestern's side of the field that landed in the end zone. His net punting average is still probably astronomical.

He's had 3 punts from around midfield, two of which he booted 10-yards through the back of the end-zone, giving his coverage absolutely no chance of downing it... He's had a mediocre day thus far...

[duke09hms]

He's had 3 punts from around midfield, two of which he booted 10-yards through the back of the end-zone, giving his coverage absolutely no chance of downing it... He's had a mediocre day thus far...

hmm I may have to check the exact stats after the game but up until Sirk's red zone INT, we were inching down the field, trading 3 and outs, solely on the back of Monday's punting.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

He's had 3 punts from around midfield, two of which he booted 10-yards through the back of the end-zone, giving his coverage absolutely no chance of downing it... He's had a mediocre day thus far...

I added this to my post probably after you already responded, so I'll repeat it here:

Top net punting average in the NFL last year was 43.3 yards. Sirk's gross is 55.3. With the 3 touchbacks and 12 return yards for Northwestern, his net should be around 45 yards.

When you're gaining more field position for your team than even the best punters in the NFL did last year, I don't think "mediocre" is a fair descriptor of your performance. "Short of perfect" might be more accurate.

[Papa John]

I added this to my post probably after you already responded, so I'll repeat it here:

Top net punting average in the NFL last year was 43.3 yards. Sirk's gross is 55.3. With the 3 touchbacks and 12 return yards for Northwestern, his net should be around 45 yards.

When you're gaining more field position for your team than even the best punters in the NFL did last year, I don't think "mediocre" is a fair descriptor of your performance. "Short of perfect" might be more accurate.

You should be analyzing this situationally... Monday's gross may be 55.3, but when you have a chance to pin the team inside their own 10 and you punt it into the back of the end zone, you've failed in your job as a punter... He's done that 3 times today...

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Ugh. It's like I said earlier. Turnovers and special teams would decide this game.

[duke79]

UGH.....not a good start to the second half.

[duke09hms]

Blocked the extra point! 9-7 Northwestern

[Mabdul Doobakus]

You should be analyzing this situationally... Monday's gross may be 55.3, but when you have a chance to pin the team inside their own 10 and you punt it into the back of the end zone, you've failed in your job as a punter... He's done that 3 times today...

Forget the gross. The net is 45, which is awesome. Yes, there are times in this game where he could've done better, but I think you're holding him to too high a standard.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

And now Northwestern is going to pull from Duke's playbook and go ultraconservative. They just gave us the ball at the 40 because they didn't want to give Edwards a shot at a return.

[duke09hms]

man I am not liking Sirk running the ball for so many plays. Dude is gonna get hurt at this rate.

[grossbus]

Maybe it is a good thing Monday is not giving them a chance to return it.

Offense still stinky.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

That offensive series didn't look any different than the first half. Defense now in a position where playing a near perfect game may not be enough, which has to be discouraging.

[luvdahops]

I added this to my post probably after you already responded, so I'll repeat it here:

Top net punting average in the NFL last year was 43.3 yards. Sirk's gross is 55.3. With the 3 touchbacks and 12 return yards for Northwestern, his net should be around 45 yards.

When you're gaining more field position for your team than even the best punters in the NFL did last year, I don't think "mediocre" is a fair descriptor of your performance. "Short of perfect" might be more accurate.

4th touchback, in a situation where we could have really benefitted from keeping them pinned down deep. Just not smart.

[duke09hms]

Too reliant on our D to hold them. Offense is gonna have to string some 1st downs to keep the D off the field.

[grossbus]

Now the D is faltering until Cash.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

4th touchback, in a situation where we could have really benefitted from keeping them pinned down deep. Just not smart.

OK, but you guys are acting like a 36 yard net punt is some kind of travesty. Again, to use the NFL as a standard, the worst punter in the NFL last year averaged 36 yards, but that means that HALF his punts were worse than what Monday just did. Of all the people to complain about in this game, maybe let's not complain about the guy whose worst punts of the day have been good enough to replace an NFL punter.

[Papa John]

4th touchback, in a situation where we could have really benefitted from keeping them pinned down deep. Just not smart.

But his net is amazing, so we should ignore the fact that he's not giving his coverage a chance to down it...

D is still playing solid. Offense needs to come out from under its rock...

[CDu]

Key to hold them to a FG there. With how poorly the offense is playing, I have trouble seeing us score twice. So keeping them with a TD was huge. Hopefully they can find some sort of offense.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

OK. Still a one score game. We just need a couple of big plays.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

We should go for it here.

[duke09hms]

Nice 4th down conversion!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Wow, three first downs in one drive.

[duke09hms]

Interesting we're not really trusting Sirk to throw. Isn't Northwestern's strength their run defense over their pass defense?

[El_Diablo]

Jeeeeeeeeeeeez....

[duke79]

We HAVE to play better on offense.......

[CDu]

That was disheartening. Gotta get points there. Just an incredibly disappointing showing on offense today so far. Defense has played amazingly well. They deserve better.

[Vincetaylor]

Can't believe people are complaining about Monday. He is he least of our problems. Sirk just isn't that good. Can't spread the field at all and it's making our offense way too easy to defend.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Probably been five years or so since I can remember feeling this limited and ineffective on offense. I haven't seen Sirk play enough to know this with certainty, but it sure seems like he has a limited skill set, and it's really hard to grind out scores when the defense doesn't respect your ability to make big plays down field.

[CDu]

Interesting we're not really trusting Sirk to throw. Isn't Northwestern's strength their run defense over their pass defense?

Well, Sirk hasn't shown any ability to throw accurately today.

[CDu]

Probably been five years or so since I can remember feeling this limited and ineffective on offense. I haven't seen Sirk play enough to know this with certainty, but it sure seems like he has a limited skill set, and it's really hard to grind out scores when the defense doesn't respect your ability to make big plays down field.

Yeah, this game doesn't feel winnable unless Sirk can throw it.

[duke09hms]

Well, Sirk hasn't shown any ability to throw accurately today.

Hmm that is true, but we're mostly only letting him throw in obvious 3rd and long situations. Would have expected a redshirt junior to make better decisions overall though.

[grossbus]

"I have trouble seeing us score twice. "

I have trouble seeing us score once.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Almost the big play we needed. Right call though.

[CDu]

Hmm that is true, but we're mostly only letting him throw in obvious 3rd and long situations. Would have expected a redshirt junior to make better decisions overall though.

We tried throwing early in the game, but he looked awful. They will need to go back to it now. But I understand why they stopped.

[duke09hms]

Well, Sirk hasn't shown any ability to throw accurately today.

O-line is also getting dominated by the Northwestern D-line regularly.

[jjasper0729]

In all fairness, they've only given him a few opportunities. One was an 8 yard pass that Barnes caught and got 7 more off of it. The other, McCaffrey bobbled it and turnd it into a big gain. The other three passes were in third and long. We haven't taken any shots really on first or second down. We have barely used our receivers at all. Everything is turning into a swing pass to a running back.

[CDu]

"I have trouble seeing us score twice. "

I have trouble seeing us score once.

I was trying to be optimistic. :(

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Man, both QBs have been legitimately terrible today.

I mean, the Northwestern QB has actually been worse than Sirk I would say.

[duke09hms]

DEFENSE!!! Keeping us in the game!!!

Come on O!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

In all fairness, they've only given him a few opportunities. One was an 8 yard pass that Barnes caught and got 7 more off of it. The other, McCaffrey bobbled it and turnd it into a big gain. The other three passes were in third and long. We haven't taken any shots really on first or second down. We have barely used our receivers at all. Everything is turning into a swing pass to a running back.

I do think this is the fairest point that can be made in Sirk's defense. If you're only giving him a chance to complete downfield throws on 3rd and long, then he's going to look bad.

[CDu]

Defense doing all they can. They are the reason we are still alive. Let's hope the light comes on for the offense.

[duke09hms]

Man, both QBs have been legitimately terrible today.

I mean, the Northwestern QB has actually been worse than Sirk I would say.

Yeah but the NU QB is a RS freshman. Sirk is a RS junior, 4th year on the team. Kind of expected better decision-making and play-reading from him.

[Papa John]

I'm still trying to figure out why it's not 14-12 right now... Absolutely ridiculous that the stripped return for TD was not reviewed—play was not dead, and runner was not down...

[CDu]

In all fairness, they've only given him a few opportunities. One was an 8 yard pass that Barnes caught and got 7 more off of it. The other, McCaffrey bobbled it and turnd it into a big gain. The other three passes were in third and long. We haven't taken any shots really on first or second down. We have barely used our receivers at all. Everything is turning into a swing pass to a running back.

I remember at least one awful deep throw on first down early. I think two or three. None were close.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I'm still trying to figure out why it's not 14-12 right now... Absolutely ridiculous that the stripped return for TD was not reviewed—play was not dead, and runner was not down...

That scenario may not be reviewable, not sure. They had whistled the play dead for forward progress.

[duke09hms]

Don't know why swing passes to the flat are our bread and butter. Just doesn't make sense from a risk-reward standpoint. High risk, low reward.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Northwestern stops us on 3rd down, and respects our offense so little that they apply a holding penalty.

[jjasper0729]

Don't know why swing passes to the flat are our bread and butter. Just doesn't make sense from a risk-reward standpoint. High risk, low reward.

I was just thinking what the analyst just said. He's looking to the safety valve way too quick. Not bothering to look down field or work to that last resort. Unless that's the play call to look downfield for just a count or two then throw it to the flat. Everything is sideways.

[El_Diablo]

And we punt it into the back of the endzone again.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Sirk seems afraid to throw the ball. If the first receiver is not wide open he's throwing into the flat. Period.

[Papa John]

That scenario may not be reviewable, not sure. They had whistled the play dead for forward progress.

You're likely correct, because it was clearly a strip-and-6... Oh well... D still coming up huge today, offense needs to wake up... All we need is one TD. C'mon—let's go Duke!

[duke09hms]

And we punt it into the back of the endzone again.

ok but still the least of our worries. Defense is keeping us in the game. Offense needs to do SOMETHING

[Mabdul Doobakus]

How is that legal?

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Nice run by Powell, squeezing through a tight hole. Our commitment to this game plan is admirable. Big third down coming up. I predict a toss into the flat or Sirk tries to pick it up with his legs. Who wants to disagree with me?

[duke09hms]

Nice run by Powell, squeezing through a tight hole. Our commitment to this game plan is admirable. Big third down coming up. I predict a toss into the flat or Sirk tries to pick it up with his legs. Who wants to disagree with me?

I'll wager on a stuffed run up the middle by our RB.

... damnit you win, Sirk up the middle, short of 1st down.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

A QB draw. Different only because there was no option to throw in the first place.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Let's try to do better with the kick coverage this time.

[Papa John]

Really wish we'd let Martin try the 49-yard FG rather than go for it on 4th-and-7... Oh well... Frustrating game, because we should be winning... Let's go Devils!

[Pghdukie]

Defense on the field too much. Will slowly tire out. O MUST step up

[SilkyJ]

Somebody tell me why we didn't go for a 49 yrd FG when we have Ross Martin on the sideline? Its hot out, the ball is carrying, thats like an effective 45 yarder for him

[duke09hms]

Really wish we'd let Martin try the 49-yard FG rather than go for it on 4th-and-7... Oh well... Frustrating game, because we should be winning... Let's go Devils!

yeah shoulda gone for that FG try.

Dammit, still can't believe we gave up a kickoff TD to start the half!

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Somebody tell me why we didn't go for a 49 yrd FG when we have Ross Martin on the sideline? Its hot out, the ball is carrying, thats like an effective 45 yarder for him

I think they were worried about giving up the field position on a miss on a kick that was probably 50/50 at best (anyone know Martin's career % from that distance?). I'm ok with the decision, but it was a tough spot on the field to be in.

[grossbus]

Our offense cannot overcome this.

[duke09hms]

Our offense cannot overcome this.

yea that is probably game

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Wow. Why did we sell out on that play? Opened ourselves right up to that. No second line.

[75Crazie]

I think they were worried about giving up the field position on a miss on a kick that was probably 50/50 at best (anyone know Martin's career % from that distance?). I'm ok with the decision, but it was a tough spot on the field to be in.
I would have put his chances with the kick much greater than the chances of this offense gaining 7 yards on that one play. And I don't understand going for 7 yards at midfield but settling for a field goal on 4th and 2 at the 20.

[Papa John]

I think they were worried about giving up the field position on a miss on a kick that was probably 50/50 at best (anyone know Martin's career % from that distance?). I'm ok with the decision, but it was a tough spot on the field to be in.

Given how the D had been playing to that point, that would be just another poor decision by the coaching staff if field position was the rationale there... We're unraveling at this point, which is disheartening to see... Offense needs to show up and answer with points on this drive, otherwise it's over...

[CDu]

Unless Edwards can break one here, I think that was the ballgame. No life on offense today.

[duke09hms]

I would have put his chances with the kick much greater than the chances of this offense gaining 7 yards on that one play. And I don't understand going for 7 yards at midfield but settling for a field goal on 4th and 2 at the 20.

4th and 7 from the 30, I think it's an easy call to go for the FG. Our offense is rarely converting that and Martin has converted kicks like that before.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

How bad is Sirk at throwing the ball downfield that we're just not even interested in trying it?

[SilkyJ]

I think they were worried about giving up the field position on a miss on a kick that was probably 50/50 at best (anyone know Martin's career % from that distance?). I'm ok with the decision, but it was a tough spot on the field to be in.

He's 4-6 (67%) from 50+, 11-16 (69%) from 40-49, so I'd say he's a lot better than 50/50 from there. He's an all-american and a strength. Our offense is struggling, go to the senior. That was a poor play call.

Ross's Stats at the bottom: http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=205497324

[duke09hms]

OK, down 9 in the 4th quarter, we suddenly decide to open up the passing offense?

[Mabdul Doobakus]

This offense is pointless. I mean, we're not even trying.

[nyesq83]

Sirk is not looking for options

[grossbus]

Have we had a third down pass that was actually thrown far enough for the first down?

[Mabdul Doobakus]

He's 4-6 (67%) from 50+, 11-16 (69%) from 40-49, so I'd say he's a lot better than 50/50 from there. He's an all-american and a strength. Our offense is struggling, go to the senior. That was a poor play call.

Ross's Stats at the bottom: http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=205497324

I was trying to find the numbers, but yeah, given those numbers, I agree with those who say it was a poor decision not to kick it. Especially since the chance of this offense picking up 7 yards in that spot was probably like 10-15%.

[CDu]

Have we had a third down pass that was actually thrown far enough for the first down?

Sirk is checking down almost instantly.

[loran16]

Sirk is checking down almost instantly.

In his first two games, he would frequently throw into double coverage rather than check down. In this game, he is like scared NOT to check down. It is beyond baffling

[Papa John]

Sirk is checking down almost instantly.

Sirk is way too tentative... I think I'd put Boehme in next drive, just to change it up and see what happens...

Also, just want to say that the D has passed the test today—they've only given up one TD and a couple of FGs, which should be good enough for a W...

[WakeDevil]

Was the fifth punt into the end zone? Was that the fifth punt that didn't come close to allowing the coverage to down the ball inside the ten?

[duke09hms]

In his first two games, he would frequently throw into double coverage rather than check down. In this game, he is like scared NOT to check down. It is beyond baffling

Big step in competition. First two games, probably knew the defenses couldn't do anything about it. Seems like he lacks confidence in the face of a tough D. Northwestern defense is top-10 I think.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

It's one thing to run this chicken poop offense when you're up 7-0. But doing it down two scores is embarrassing. Instead of trying to win, it seems like we're trying to limit how much we lose by. We're better than this.

[75Crazie]

This is going to get ugly, and the defensive stats will not tell the true story. The Duke D had that offense completely stymied for the better part of three quarters. ANY kind of offensive productivity would have won this game. Not that it's over yet ... but it is over.

[loran16]

Big step in competition. First two games, probably knew the defenses couldn't do anything about it. Seems like he lacks confidence in the face of a tough D. Northwestern defense is top-10 I think.

Oh it is. But if he can't have confidence, he can't run the offense. It requires confidence to make the throw even against a tough d.

[grossbus]

I'm beginning to suspect our wideouts are not getting any separation.

Big conversion there.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Was the fifth punt into the end zone? Was that the fifth punt that didn't come close to allowing the coverage to down the ball inside the ten?

I don't understand why this is causing so much consternation. I mean, one, the punt bounced on the two before it rolled into the end zone. But two, it was a 40 yard net punt. This is probably better than NFL average. How is this a thing? It's like complaining about a QB who's completing 70% of his passes because he's not completing 80% of his passes.

[75Crazie]

I don't understand why this is causing so much consternation. I mean, one, the punt bounced on the two before it rolled into the end zone. But two, it was a 40 yard net punt. This is probably better than NFL average. How is this a thing? It's like complaining about a QB who's completing 70% of his passes because he's not completing 80% of his passes.
It is not a thing. Monday is player of the game.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Rahming just stopped running? Not sure he couldn't have gotten to that.

[luvdahops]

Warren Long's previous best career gain was 21 yards. Our offense is playing right into their hands. At least we finally got a strategic punt from Monday.

[duke09hms]

I don't know if our offensive playcalling/execution is really this bad or their defense is just that good.

[CDu]

I don't know if our offensive playcalling/execution is really this bad or their defense is just that good.

It is both, along with a gunshy QB.

[arnie]

This is going to get ugly, and the defensive stats will not tell the true story. The Duke D had that offense completely stymied for the better part of three quarters. ANY kind of offensive productivity would have won this game. Not that it's over yet ... but it is over.

Offense reminds me of the Franks/Roof years, fortunately D is best in years. Not gonna win 8 games with this approach on O, but should best the weaker teams. I'm surprised Cut hasn't changed things up today.

[Papa John]

I don't understand why this is causing so much consternation. I mean, one, the punt bounced on the two before it rolled into the end zone. But two, it was a 40 yard net punt. This is probably better than NFL average. How is this a thing? It's like complaining about a QB who's completing 70% of his passes because he's not completing 80% of his passes.

That was Monday's best punt of the day, and the first one downed inside the 20... Compare that to the other 4 opportunities he's had to down it inside the 20 and you'll understand why he has not been the player of the day.

They need to not attempt a check-down screen to the RB in the wide flat again today—we've tried it about a half-dozen times today and it's been a 1-on-4 each time...

[75Crazie]

I don't know if our offensive playcalling/execution is really this bad or their defense is just that good.
It's some combination of Sirk inexperience, poor offensive strategy, and good Northwestern defense. I'm just not sure how much weight each of those deserves.

[grossbus]

I'm changing the channel.

[Pghdukie]

O never did anything to get N's defense guessing or on their heels. When D knows what's coming-it's not pretty for the O

[75Crazie]

That was Monday's best punt of the day, and the first one downed inside the 20... Compare that to the other 4 opportunities he's had to down it inside the 20 and you'll understand why he has not been the player of the day.
Strongly disagree. As Mabdul said, at least one (I think more) of those punts hit prior to the end zone. I think carping about a career punting day by our punter, when it had absolutely no bearing on the game, is a disservice.

[duke09hms]

Wonder if this will kill the attendance for the rest of the home games.

[duke79]

NOT Duke's day today......too many mistakes. No offense.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

That was Monday's best punt of the day, and the first one downed inside the 20... Compare that to the other 4 opportunities he's had to down it inside the 20 and you'll understand why he has not been the player of the day.

They need to not attempt a check-down screen to the RB in the wide flat again today—we've tried it about a half-dozen times today and it's been a 1-on-4 each time...

Well, I didn't make him player of the day. I object to his performance being called mediocre. He's punted around ten times now, maybe more, and even his worst punts have been average at worst by any reasonable standard of a college punter.

How boring has this game been that we've spent the last two hours arguing about the punter?

[duke09hms]

Feel bad for the defense, getting worn down now.

[luvdahops]

I don't understand why this is causing so much consternation. I mean, one, the punt bounced on the two before it rolled into the end zone. But two, it was a 40 yard net punt. This is probably better than NFL average. How is this a thing? It's like complaining about a QB who's completing 70% of his passes because he's not completing 80% of his passes.

Probably because you don't seem to acknowledge the limitations of net punting average as a stat. or the negative impact of touchbacks in certain situations. I doubt the Duke staff will be happy with Monday's performance today. Though he is well down the list of things that went wrong today.

[duke09hms]

Probably because you don't seem to acknowledge the limitations of net punting average as a stat. or the negative impact of touchbacks in certain situations. I doubt the Duke staff will be happy with Monday's performance today.

ehh it was an OK performance. Duke staff will have a lot bigger issues on their hands.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Probably because you don't seem to acknowledge the limitations of net punting average as a stat. or the negative impact of touchbacks in certain situations. I doubt the Duke staff will be happy with Monday's performance today.

You do get that net punting average accounts for the touchbacks though, right?

[Papa John]

Strongly disagree. As Mabdul said, at least one (I think more) of those punts hit prior to the end zone. I think carping about a career punting day by our punter, when it had absolutely no bearing on the game, is a disservice.

Rewind the game... Four of those punts hit 6-10 yard into the end-zone. One of them was downed inside the 20. Monday was mediocre. He boomed his punts, yes, but half of his job is to get it inside the 20 where his coverage team can down it—he completely failed in that area... Special teams gets a C today, Defense gets a B+, Offense gets a D... We should have won this game—the D played well enough for us to win... I'm disappointed in a poor performance from our offense, and a poorly called game by the coaches. However, given how well the coaching staff has done over the past few seasons, I'll give them a pass here—everyone's entitled to a brain fart every now and then... This was a missed opportunity, but we can recover... Go Duke!

[El_Diablo]

Strongly disagree. As Mabdul said, at least one (I think more) of those punts hit prior to the end zone. I think carping about a career punting day by our punter, when it had absolutely no bearing on the game, is a disservice.

Since when does field position have absolutely no bearing on the game?

Career punting day? Come on.

[Pghdukie]

The O needed a play or 2 to Jumpstart and get some momentum. A strategic punt inside the 10, then a turnover may have given the O a much needed shot of adrenaline. Then again the Powerball is 208 million tonight

[loran16]

Since when does field position have absolutely no bearing on the game?

Career punting day? Come on.

It was both probably not the best Monday could've done punting and at the same time, not even close to the reason why they lost this game.

[duke79]

UGH......not a good loss......Defense played well......but the coaches have to figure how to move the ball better on offense.

[duke09hms]

Since when does field position have absolutely no bearing on the game?

Career punting day? Come on.

This is getting ridiculous. Doesn't matter how far we pin them back, once we force a punt, our offense isn't going to do anything with it anyway.

Special teams failed us today but not because of our punting. Giving up that KO TD was a killer then muffing that punt ended all hopes.

[Papa John]

How boring has this game been that we've spent the last two hours arguing about the punter?

Agreed... Punting did not decide this game... Poor execution on offense and one bad special teams play were the difference... Oh well—next play...

[Pghdukie]

Defense played well enough to win.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

If you're punting from your own 40, and you're a hall of fame punter, you could I suppose, some of the time, punt 50 yards with enough hang time to allow your coverage team to not allow a return. That would be a fantastic result. That's very, very hard to duplicate. A 40 yard net punt is a good punt no matter where you are on the field and no matter how it is achieved. You guys are asking for hall of fame punting. The standard here is just unreasonable.

[El_Diablo]

It was both probably not the best Monday could've done punting and at the same time, not even close to the reason why they lost this game.

I agree. But no one is saying it's the reason we lost the game. They're just examples of poor execution. I think everyone would likely agree that the offense was much worse overall.

[75Crazie]

Since when does field position have absolutely no bearing on the game?

Career punting day? Come on.
I would love to see the relative starting field positions for both teams, taking turnovers (and the one kick return) out of the equation. In the game I saw today, we soundly won that battle.

And yes, we are spending way too much bandwidth on this. I see our punting today as a net positive, others see it as a net negative ... but regardless, it had absolutely no impact on the result.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Also, for what it's worth, the only limitation of net punting as a stat is that it doesn't give enough credit to the punter who is punting on a short field, maybe kicks it net 30 yards, but pins the other team inside the 10 or whatever. Because then his net average will be low, but it was an excellent punt. But a net average can't overestimate how much field position you've gained.

I'm almost positive Will Monday's net average was over 40 yards today, which means that Duke gained 40+ yards of field position when Monday punted. It's hard finding college net punting stats. I found stats from 2013. Only 12 of 120 teams had a net punting average of better than 40 yards. I know everyone's tired of arguing about this, but it's frustrating to me how high a standard we're placing on Monday.

His entire job description is basically to give Duke better field position, and he did that better than 90-95% of college punters do, on average. Could he have done still better by not kicking the ball into end zone? Yes, he could have been better than 100% of college punters, I suppose, and given Duke 45 yards of field position per punt, but I guess he wasn't up to it. Maybe next week.

[Devil77]

Defense played well enough to win.
True, but I think we lost to a better team.

[Pghdukie]

Yes the punter averaged 40 net yds, but a muffed kick or a kick out of bounds inside the 10 may have resulted in good fortune for the good guys. In golf - it's called drive for show and putt for dough. We Lost