Duke NBA Players in Hall of Fame?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

With Brand's retirement, I was wondering if he has a chance to make the Hall of Fame. It seemed to me he is just below that tier of player, but consider:

Bernard King
Joe Dumars
Alonzo Mourning
Adrian Dantley....

All very good players, never really transcendent talent, in the hall.

Actually, as I was typing this, I looked up his career accomplishments and find him another tier below these guys. Two-time All Star doesn't make the cut I suppose.

Regardless, fantastic career, made a ton of cash, kicked the "Duke can't develop big men" myth, and represented the university admirably.

So, will Grant Hill be the first Duke NBA player in the Hall of Fame? Seems our most likely bet in the near future.

Let's look at current Duke NBA players and try to guess who has the best chance to crack into the hall (disclaimer: all percentages are pulled from my rear end and based on nothing)

Carlos Boozer - 2 time all star, very similar resume and career stats to Brand. Most of his career is in the books. Chance of Hall: 5%
Deng - 2 time all star, defensive second team... maybe five or six years remaining on his career. If he were to find the right team and hit his stride, I could see him making a late push. He took a bit of a dip last year in Miami, but you could cite several reasons for that. This season will be very telling. Chance: 10%
Kyrie - 3 time all star, rookie of the year. Huge potential if he can carve our a career as LeBron's second banana and tag some trophies. Chance: 25%
Justise Winslow - Justise will be served. Chance: 100%

Anything I'm missing? Someone I forgot? Anyone see Plumlees making a huge leap? JJ getting into the discussion with a few titles? Gerald scoring 30+ a season? Feel I'm selling Boozer short?

#offseasondiscussions

[CDu]

Technically I don't think there is an NBA Hall of Fame. There is the Naismith Hall, which expands beyond the NBA. Laettner has been honored there as part of the Dream Team. But yeah, Hill is our best chance in the near term. He had 6 or 7 great years before injuries destroyed him. Hopefully that is enough. Brand won't get there. Neither will Deng or Boozer. Irving might (health permitting), especially if Cleveland wins a few titles. That is about it.

[Billy Dat]

Basketball Reference created a formula that begins placing a probability on a player once they've played in 400 games.

Elton is on the list at less than 10% chance

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

[sagegrouse]

Technically I don't think there is an NBA Hall of Fame. There is the Naismith Hall, which expands beyond the NBA. Laettner has been honored there as part of the Dream Team. But yeah, Hill is our best chance in the near term. He had 6 or 7 great years before injuries destroyed him. Hopefully that is enough. Brand won't get there. Neither will Deng or Boozer. Irving might (health permitting), especially if Cleveland wins a few titles. That is about it.

Ah, yes. But hope springs eternal in the human breast. There is also Jabari and Jahlil and the aforementioned Justise in the years to come.

[CDu]

Ah, yes. But hope springs eternal in the human breast. There is also Jabari and Jahlil and the aforementioned Justise in the years to come.

Oh, of course. Guys whose careers are just starting certainly have a chance. I just felt it not worth discussing until they actually have an NBA resume to discuss.

[sagegrouse]

Oh, of course. Guys whose careers are just starting certainly have a chance. I just felt it not worth discussing until they actually have an NBA resume to discuss.

You Pratt School of Engineering guys never did understand fantasy.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Basketball Reference created a formula that begins placing a probability on a player once they've played in 400 games.

Elton is on the list at less than 10% chance

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

Well then, I redact my claims that my percentages were extracted from my tookus.

Looks like they have Deng and Boozer at less than one percent. Is it possible that my nuanced methodology is biased towards Duke players?

I agree that it seems our "best" chances outside of Grant are our recent/soon-to-be NBA draftees. We are procuring a higher number of players at the highest level of talent.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Oh, of course. Guys whose careers are just starting certainly have a chance. I just felt it not worth discussing until they actually have an NBA resume to discuss.

Boy are you going to feel silly when Justise goes into the hall. You will owe me a drink sometime in 2034.

[luburch]

Only 2034?

I fully expect that at a young age of 38 Justise will be averaging a triple-double on the way to his 9th NBA Finals.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Boy are you going to feel silly when Justise goes into the hall. You will owe me a drink sometime in 2034.

Sorry Mountain Devil. You're wrong. Dead wrong.

You must be retired 6 years to get into the Naismith HOF, which means Winslow would have retired in 2028. That's would make Winslow's career only 13 years long and retirement at age 32. I do not believe that.

CDu owes you a drink sometime in 2038, cus I expect Winslow to play until he's at least 36.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sorry Mountain Devil. You're wrong. Dead wrong.

You must be retired 6 years to get into the Naismith HOF, which means Winslow would have retired in 2028. That's would make Winslow's career only 13 years long and retirement at age 32. I do not believe that.

CDu owes you a drink sometime in 2038, cus I expect Winslow to play until he's at least 36.

I was counting on him retiring after ten straight finals MVPs. Guess you see more like fifteen. I figured he would be eager to start his political career.

Agree to disagree.

[Duvall]

Anything I'm missing? Someone I forgot?


Well, there's one Duke alum whose chances of eventually making the Hall of Fame I would put in the mid-90s, at least.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, there's one Duke alum whose chances of eventually making the Hall of Fame I would put in the mid-90s, at least.

I thought Nate James had already turned down the HOF?

[Richard Berg]

They tried to rename it "Hall of Davidson", but Patrick thought it was a little tacky. Steph is appealing the decision.

[superdave]

Basketball Reference created a formula that begins placing a probability on a player once they've played in 400 games.

Elton is on the list at less than 10% chance

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

I was going to link this list as well. Seems pretty useful and an unbiased way to look at things.

Check out the explanation of how they arrive at the %: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Two highly ranked modern players who are HOF eligible, but not in are Jack Sikma (0.8698) and Tim Hardaway (0.7919). That's pretty high if you assume anything over 50% is likely in. Grant Hill is at 0.89 so stands a very good chance of getting in, even if not on the first ballot. I think Grant has earned himself a lot of goodwill over the years which should help.

[ChillinDuke]

I was going to link this list as well. Seems pretty useful and an unbiased way to look at things.

Check out the explanation of how they arrive at the %: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Two highly ranked modern players who are HOF eligible, but not in are Jack Sikma (0.8698) and Tim Hardaway (0.7919). That's pretty high if you assume anything over 50% is likely in. Grant Hill is at 0.89 so stands a very good chance of getting in, even if not on the first ballot. I think Grant has earned himself a lot of goodwill over the years which should help.

This.

89%. Higher than Carmelo (currently).

Not sure how they calculate it, but add in his college career, commentating (presumably continuing), NBA Inside Stuff host, I believe he's a philanthropist, and his general demeanor/steward of the game. I imagine he gets in.

- Chillin

[sagegrouse]

This.

89%. Higher than Carmelo (currently).

Not sure how they calculate it, but add in his college career, commentating (presumably continuing), NBA Inside Stuff host, I believe he's a philanthropist, and his general demeanor/steward of the game. I imagine he gets in.

- Chillin

You forgot the most important part: character. An influential players' wife was asked a few years ago if there was widespread "fooling around" by players on road trips. "Let me put it this way," she said, "there is Grant Hill, and then there is everyone else." Ouch!

Also, he is co-owner and vice chairman of the Atlanta Hawks.

FWIW, Grant Hill has a world-class collection of African-American art,which has been displayed a the Nasher Museum at Duke.

[msdukie]

Well, there's one Duke alum whose chances of eventually making the Hall of Fame I would put in the mid-90s, at least.

Which would be 90+ points more than he ever scored....

[gurufrisbee]

Basketball Reference created a formula that begins placing a probability on a player once they've played in 400 games.

Elton is on the list at less than 10% chance

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

Looking at that I was left with a couple responses:

* Steve Nash is 98%, Amare is 73%, Marion is 76%, and Joe Johnson is 51%. HOW DID THE SUNS NEVER MAKE THE NBA FINALS?!?!?

* I get that it's based on the premise of "if they retired today" but it looks weird to see guys like Harden, Curry, Westbrook, Love all so low.

* It's also very strange to see on the retired side guys with such low numbers like Calvin Murphy (1%), Bill Walton (2%), Connie Hawkins (5%), Gus Johnson (5%), Wayne Embry (6%), Guy Rodgers (9%) - who are all IN the HOF already.

* Grant Hill looks likes Duke's only lock to make it in right now (or any time soon). For the future, I'm thinking Kyrie is a nice bet if he can stay healthier. The lack of Blue Devils in the HOF doesn't really bother me. They were great in college and that's what they are there for.

* I'll take Okafor or T.Jones for more likely to end up in the HOF than Winslow.

* Dick Groat should be in the HOF. Not the basketball one, but still.

[johnb]

After Grant, I'd guess Adam Silver is most likely, with no one else having played themselves in as yet. High hopes for the next 15 years.

[theAlaskanBear]

Even though brand and boozer will not make the hall, it's worth noting they have both had terrific careers...and boozers is still ongoing. Elton is 49th on the NBA all time rebounding list, and boozer is 61. Brand only has 400 fewer points than Grant freakin Hill.

[COYS]

Even though brand and boozer will not make the hall, it's worth noting they have both had terrific careers...and boozers is still ongoing. Elton is 49th on the NBA all time rebounding list, and boozer is 61. Brand only has 400 fewer points than Grant freakin Hill.

Brand will always be underrated because he played his best years with the then irrelevant clippers (where he was a Top 10 NBA player for a few seasons) and then ruptured his Achilles, which robbed him of the backend of his prime. Even with that terrible injury setback, he still had a career to be envied. His peak wasn't quite as high as Grant's, but his career arc is very similar.

[CDu]

Even though brand and boozer will not make the hall, it's worth noting they have both had terrific careers...and boozers is still ongoing. Elton is 49th on the NBA all time rebounding list, and boozer is 61. Brand only has 400 fewer points than Grant freakin Hill.

Yeah, and both Brand and Hill had their careers dramatically altered by ankle/achilles injury at the age of 28. Hill was coming off a borderline-MVP season and was, along with Tim Duncan, the most prized free agent coming into his age 28 season. But ankle injuries late in the previous season and subsequent complications limited him to just 47 games over the next 4 seasons (basically, his entire prime). He returned and was a double-digit scorer for the next 8 seasons, but he was never the same. Brand was a season removed from a 24.7 ppg, 10 rpg season, and produced six 20 ppg and six 10 rpg seasons in his first 8 years. But the dreaded achilles injury bit him, and he never again topped 15 ppg or 9 rpg in a full season.

I think, had these two guys not gotten those injuries, they'd both have wound up locks for the Hall of Fame. Fortunately for Hill, he was prominent enough early in his career that he will likely still get in. Unfortunately for Brand, he played in anonymity for too long early and didn't have enough opportunities to shine in the spotlight before injuries derailed his career.