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sagegrouse
08-05-2015, 11:51 AM
ESPN is out with its "No-Longer-Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2015-2016." (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/13369291/maryland-terrapins-north-carolina-tar-heels-lead-no-longer-way-too-early-top-25)

Here are the Top 10:


Maryland
North Carolina
Kentucky
Virginia
Kansas
Duke
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Wichita State
Villanova



Hmmm.... Looks like no clear favorite this year. What do the odds say?

Here's one view, from Bovada (http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/college-basketball-futures):

Kentucky 5/1
Duke 8/1
Maryland 10/1
Kansas 12/1
North Carolina 12/1

Four of the same teams in the Top 5. We are missing Virginia, which Bovada has at 25/1. I have no quibble with Duke at #6 preseason or at #2. Who the heck knows how good we will be with all the new players coming in?

brevity
08-05-2015, 12:59 PM
Another DBR thread that pretends (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36213) to be about preseason rankings, but isn't. This is a post from one ESPN writer, not a poll. Wake me when we see a grouping of more than one opinion.



Maryland
North Carolina
Kentucky
Virginia
Kansas
Duke
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Wichita State
Villanova


I don't entirely agree with the order, but those are a decent set of 10 teams. The only quibble is the lack of Western presence, which is more damning if you click the article. The writer puts Gonzaga, Cal, Utah, and Arizona between #11-15, which shows a great deal of laziness, and worse, Eastern snobbery. He's saying, "look, I wanted to put one of these teams in the Top 10, but I couldn't figure out which one." (To be fair, 10 is kind of an arbitrary number, and the article lists 25.)

I'm no gambling expert, and I know odds change as the season progresses, but preseason odds are more about April 2016, while preseason rankings are -- or should be -- more about October 2015. They shouldn't be that similar.

Eakane
08-05-2015, 01:02 PM
Not to jinx it, but who's to say whether we can be as good as last year?

Okafor > Jeter/Obi/Vrankovic? Probably, but they bring a lot to the table
Winslow > Ingram? Push. Winslow started slow, but finished unbeleivably
T. Jones > Thornton? Probably. But DT is exacatly what we need.
Cook > Kennard?
2015-16 Jefferson, Allen, M. Jones and MP3 > 2014-15 versions? Very probably.
J. Robinston = Daddy David? Hopefully!

Hard to imagine that any three freshman could be as good as last year's troica (and without Allen, we're not the defending champs)
.
Last years crop of freshmen were not only really good, but came up really big in big games. The thing that impressed me was how poised the team was; never panicking when we were down, or down late. Didn't they understand that they were only freshmen and were supposed to panic?! We were in trouble at Virginia, at St. Johns, at Va. Tech, and at home against Carolina, to name just a few. We looked to be in trouble in the tournament against Gonzaga, Mich. St., and of course, Wisky. How could a freshmen-led team be so composed in those situations?? Credit goes, of course, to the coaching Staff, and I'd say also to Amile and Quinn.

We might not be quite as good, but I'd say starting 6-10, and making a little climb to the top 5 is very possible. We'll get an early indication when we face off with Kentucky.
I can't wait!

burns15
08-05-2015, 01:46 PM
Not to jinx it, but who's to say whether we can be as good as last year?

Okafor > Jeter/Obi/Vrankovic? Probably, but they bring a lot to the table
Winslow > Ingram? Push. Winslow started slow, but finished unbeleivably
T. Jones > Thornton? Probably. But DT is exacatly what we need.
Cook > Kennard?
2015-16 Jefferson, Allen, M. Jones and MP3 > 2014-15 versions? Very probably.
J. Robinston = Daddy David? Hopefully!

Hard to imagine that any three freshman could be as good as last year's troica (and without Allen, we're not the defending champs)
.
Last years crop of freshmen were not only really good, but came up really big in big games. The thing that impressed me was how poised the team was; never panicking when we were down, or down late. Didn't they understand that they were only freshmen and were supposed to panic?! We were in trouble at Virginia, at St. Johns, at Va. Tech, and at home against Carolina, to name just a few. We looked to be in trouble in the tournament against Gonzaga, Mich. St., and of course, Wisky. How could a freshmen-led team be so composed in those situations?? Credit goes, of course, to the coaching Staff, and I'd say also to Amile and Quinn.

We might not be quite as good, but I'd say starting 6-10, and making a little climb to the top 5 is very possible. We'll get an early indication when we face off with Kentucky.
I can't wait!

The great thing is, we don't have to be better than or as good as last year! We just have to be better than everyone else THIS year! Heck not even that, just better than the team we are playing for 6 nights in 3 weekends in March... that's all folks. So I would be more interested to see us evaluated against these other team rather than against last years team... if we want to decide this team's potential. In regards to that, I think we have a higher ceiling than anyteam in the top 10 if all the freshmen develop and contribute near their "ranking" level. Maryland scares me a bit, but they have little tournament experience. UNC will be good, they have a lot of older, more experienced players... but do they really have elite, high end talent (yes, Paige, Jackson, and Brice Johnson are all good... but have any of them played at a constant, elite level besides perhaps Paige). Even Paige really is a 2 guard, and UNC loses a lot defensively there with size and strength. Everyone else, is in a similar position to us... lose significant talent from the prior year (players or coaching) and don't bring in as much as we do.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
08-05-2015, 05:58 PM
Not to jinx it, but who's to say whether we can be as good as last year?

Okafor > Jeter/Obi/Vrankovic? Probably, but they bring a lot to the table
Winslow > Ingram? Push. Winslow started slow, but finished unbeleivably
T. Jones > Thornton? Probably. But DT is exacatly what we need.
Cook > Kennard?
2015-16 Jefferson, Allen, M. Jones and MP3 > 2014-15 versions? Very probably.
J. Robinston = Daddy David? Hopefully!

Hard to imagine that any three freshman could be as good as last year's troica (and without Allen, we're not the defending champs)
.
Last years crop of freshmen were not only really good, but came up really big in big games. The thing that impressed me was how poised the team was; never panicking when we were down, or down late. Didn't they understand that they were only freshmen and were supposed to panic?! We were in trouble at Virginia, at St. Johns, at Va. Tech, and at home against Carolina, to name just a few. We looked to be in trouble in the tournament against Gonzaga, Mich. St., and of course, Wisky. How could a freshmen-led team be so composed in those situations?? Credit goes, of course, to the coaching Staff, and I'd say also to Amile and Quinn.

We might not be quite as good, but I'd say starting 6-10, and making a little climb to the top 5 is very possible. We'll get an early indication when we face off with Kentucky.
I can't wait!

I might be overly optimistic, but starting 6-10 sounds like a low bar. I will revisit when schedules come out, but I would be disappointed if we weren't at least 8-8, and like to imagine 12-4 is realistic.

Kedsy
08-05-2015, 06:02 PM
I might be overly optimistic, but starting 6-10 sounds like a low bar. I will revisit when schedules come out, but I would be disappointed if we weren't at least 8-8, and like to imagine 12-4 is realistic.

I assume you're making fun? He meant 6th to 10th, rising into the top 5 as the season progresses.

Neals384
08-05-2015, 06:15 PM
I'm no gambling expert, and I know odds change as the season progresses, but preseason odds are more about April 2016, while preseason rankings are -- or should be -- more about October 2015. They shouldn't be that similar.

That sounds about right. So the pundits are expecting Duke to improve from preseason #6 to the #2 favorite to win the title, while Roy coaches his team from preseason #2 down to #5.

MarkD83
08-05-2015, 08:56 PM
These "rankings" are great because they may make UNC nervous enough that 2015-16 is not a guaranteed championship year and they may self-impose a post season ban....

-----

What are you nuts or have you been drinking too much?

BD80
08-05-2015, 10:27 PM
I might be overly optimistic, but starting 6-10 sounds like a low bar. I will revisit when schedules come out, but I would be disappointed if we weren't at least 8-8, and like to imagine 12-4 is realistic.


I assume you're making fun? He meant 6th to 10th, rising into the top 5 as the season progresses.

We should be allowed to use a different color text to indicate sarcasm, or other type of buffoonery (my specialty).

gurufrisbee
08-06-2015, 01:21 AM
I have no quibble with where Duke is. Who knows?

But I don't like these rankings. I think Maryland and NC are too high. They weren't that good last year and Dez Well and Tokoto are actually pretty significant losses.

Virginia, Kansas, Iowa St, and Oklahoma all were better than those two teams last season and lost less. For a pre-season ranking I think they should all be ahead of the Twerps and Terd Heels.

luburch
08-06-2015, 07:16 AM
I have no quibble with where Duke is. Who knows?

But I don't like these rankings. I think Maryland and NC are too high. They weren't that good last year and Dez Well and Tokoto are actually pretty significant losses.

Virginia, Kansas, Iowa St, and Oklahoma all were better than those two teams last season and lost less. For a pre-season ranking I think they should all be ahead of the Twerps and Terd Heels.


I can't speak to Oklahoma, but Virginia lost their best player, Kansas lost two players (well probably 1.5 counting Alexander as a half), and Iowa State lost their head coach. I think Maryland being ranked first in a preseason poll is fine when you look at their loaded roster. UNC I can understand the arguement that they are too high. Heck, I think Duke is probably too high if it truly is a preseason poll and not a projection of where they will finish. Too many unknowns at this point.

Wahoo2000
08-06-2015, 03:20 PM
I can't speak to Oklahoma, but Virginia lost their best player, Kansas lost two players (well probably 1.5 counting Alexander as a half), and Iowa State lost their head coach. I think Maryland being ranked first in a preseason poll is fine when you look at their loaded roster. UNC I can understand the arguement that they are too high. Heck, I think Duke is probably too high if it truly is a preseason poll and not a projection of where they will finish. Too many unknowns at this point.

I believe the writer of the article/poll even stated something along the lines of, "you can put the top 7 in just about whatever order you want, and I'm not going to complain too much". I'm sure it'll end up shaking out a little differently, and as usual, somewhere between 3 and probably 5 teams will separate themselves as the "cream of the crop". For now though, there are legit arguments to be made for any of those teams to be in the top 2-3.

Color me "super interested" to see how Turgeon and Williams develop the boatloads of experienced talent they have on their respective UMD and UNC rosters. If all coaching were equal, I'd pick those 2 squads based on the combo of talent and experience in a tier by themselves.

DarkstarWahoo
08-07-2015, 05:02 PM
I can't speak to Oklahoma, but Virginia lost their best player, Kansas lost two players (well probably 1.5 counting Alexander as a half), and Iowa State lost their head coach. I think Maryland being ranked first in a preseason poll is fine when you look at their loaded roster. UNC I can understand the arguement that they are too high. Heck, I think Duke is probably too high if it truly is a preseason poll and not a projection of where they will finish. Too many unknowns at this point.

Brogdon was UVA's best player last year. Not by an incredible margin, but he was decisively more important to the team. It hurts to lose Anderson, but Brogdon would have been the bigger blow (and he was closer to leaving than most UVA fans think).

EDIT: I did write this post before looking at any advanced stats. Based on PER, Brogdon was actually UVA's fifth-best player, behind Anthony Gill (who was first by a wide margin), Mike Tobey (!), Anderson and Darion Atkins.

(Jeff Jones actually had the second-highest PER, so they're clearly not adjusting for playing time. So I'll go ahead and remove him from the discussion with a respectful head nod to his father's contributions to the UVA program and continued health.)

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
08-08-2015, 12:26 AM
I assume you're making fun? He meant 6th to 10th, rising into the top 5 as the season progresses.

Absolutely all in fun.

gumbomoop
09-01-2015, 03:08 PM
Here's a challenge, from ESPN's John Gasaway.

http://johngasaway.com/2015/09/01/your-first-look-at-the-ap-preseason-top-10/

Look at the paragraph immediately after his list/projection of AP preseason poll. He says the first 7 listed are AP preseason top-7 locks, though the order may not be exactly his projection.

Olympic Fan
09-01-2015, 03:20 PM
Here's a challenge, from ESPN's John Gasaway.

http://johngasaway.com/2015/09/01/your-first-look-at-the-ap-preseason-top-10/

Look at the paragraph immediately after his list/projection of AP preseason poll. He says the first 7 listed are AP preseason top-7 locks, though the order may not be exactly his projection.

It's a fair list -- considering his caveat that he's sure of the top seven, but not the order.

For another list, check out the latest Vegas odds on the 2016 title:

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/college-basketball-futures

Kentucky is the favorite at 5-1, but Duke is the second betting favorite at 8-1, just ahead of Maryland (10-1) and Kansas and UNC (both 12-1). If I were betting (I'm not a gambler), I'd put my money on Virginia at 25-1.

Indoor66
09-01-2015, 04:02 PM
It's a fair list -- considering his caveat that he's sure of the top seven, but not the order.

For another list, check out the latest Vegas odds on the 2016 title:

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/college-basketball-futures

Kentucky is the favorite at 5-1, but Duke is the second betting favorite at 8-1, just ahead of Maryland (10-1) and Kansas and UNC (both 12-1). If I were betting (I'm not a gambler), I'd put my money on Virginia at 25-1.

I've already got my bet down on Duke. I got 12 to 1 a month ago. (In Reno.)

brevity
09-01-2015, 04:10 PM
It's a fair list...

It's the same list as the one atop this thread, just in a slightly different order.

Eamonn Brennan, August 5:

1. Maryland
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Virginia
5. Kansas
6. Duke
7. Iowa State
8. Oklahoma
9. Wichita State
10. Villanova

John Gasaway, September 1:

1. North Carolina
2. Maryland
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. Iowa State
6. Virginia
7. Duke
8. Oklahoma
9. Villanova
10. Wichita State

More evidence that preseason rankings have become an example of voters copying each other's papers, seemingly incapable of independent thought.

Wahoo2000
09-01-2015, 04:38 PM
It's the same list as the one atop this thread, just in a slightly different order.

Eamonn Brennan, August 5:

1. Maryland
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Virginia
5. Kansas
6. Duke
7. Iowa State
8. Oklahoma
9. Wichita State
10. Villanova

John Gasaway, September 1:

1. North Carolina
2. Maryland
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. Iowa State
6. Virginia
7. Duke
8. Oklahoma
9. Villanova
10. Wichita State

More evidence that preseason rankings have become an example of voters copying each other's papers, seemingly incapable of independent thought.

Iowa State is breaking in a new coach, does anyone know if that also means a new system? I feel like they're likely to take a step back without Hoiberg, but no real basis for that other than me thinking that coaching is SO important to a team's success in college bball. There are really only about 10-12 coaches in America I think that could replicate that level of success at ISU...