Phil Jackson takes a shot....

[rhcpflea99]

At best, the Knicks would get the first pick and tab center Jahlil Okafor, although Jackson thinks he might not be aggressive enough. "Also, if you look at the guys who came to the NBA from Duke, aside from Grant Hill, which ones lived up to expectations?"

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13269490/the-phil-files-part-4-trade-shook-new-york

Not sure if that is a shot at Coach K or Phil is just losing his mind.

[Jeffrey]

Boozer exceeded expectations.

[phaedrus]

Exceeded:
Boozer
Redick
Randolph
Kyrie
Miles Plumlee
Lance

Didn't meet:

S. Williams
Nolan

Withholding judgment:

Rivers

Everyone else (since '99) has more or less met my expectations.

[sagegrouse]

At best, the Knicks would get the first pick and tab center Jahlil Okafor, although Jackson thinks he might not be aggressive enough. "Also, if you look at the guys who came to the NBA from Duke, aside from Grant Hill, which ones lived up to expectations?"

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13269490/the-phil-files-part-4-trade-shook-new-york

Not sure if that is a shot at Coach K or Phil is just losing his mind.

This appears to be from an article from January 10 after J.R. and Shumpert were traded to the Cavs.

The Duke quote appears to be a rhetorical question and not especially a shot.

I am not sure why this outdated reference should be a thread.

[Jeffrey]

Didn't meet:

S. Williams
Nolan



I think that list is much longer starting with the greatest to play at Duke. Then adding key injuries (Hurley, J. Williams, etc.) and Ferry.

[phaedrus]

I was starting at '99, since that's when I started having expectations about NBA success.

[roywhite]

I think that list is much longer starting with the greatest to play at Duke. Then adding key injuries (Hurley, J. Williams, etc.) and Ferry.

Are you referring to Art Heyman?

If so, that would make some sense, at least to explain Jackson's perception. Jackson was only 4 years younger than Heyman.

[Jeffrey]

I was starting at '99, since that's when I started having expectations about NBA success.

Do you truly believe Kyrie has exceeded expectations? He was the best PG in college hoops as a November & early Dec. Freshman.

[Jeffrey]

Are you referring to Art Heyman?

If so, that would make some sense, at least to explain Jackson's perception. Jackson was only 4 years younger than Heyman.

Thanks, I needed that! :D

[Reilly]

If you compare the player's "win shares" ranking for their draft class against what number pick the player was, quite a few in the K era have exceeded expectations.

Banks - 14th in win shares, 28th pick
Dennard - 39/78th
Brian Davis - 43/48th
Mason - 2/22nd
Corey - 10/13th
Battier - 5/6th
Booz - 2/24th
Deng - 3/7th
Duhon - 20/38th
McRoberts - 20/37
JJ - 7/11th
Singler - 20/33rd
Ryan Kelly - 17/48th
Hood - 4/23rd
Miles - 15/26th

Grant Hill met expectations: 3rd in win shares/3rd pick

Kyrie has come close: 2nd in win shares/1st pick
Elton - same: 2/1
Johnny D was 14/10

Hurley, Avery, and Nolan ended up with the worst "win shares" number for their draft classes.

[Billy Dat]

As his recent behavior has indicated, Big Chief Triangle is living in a 2009 world.

[Highlander]

If you compare the player's "win shares" ranking for their draft class against what number pick the player was, quite a few in the K era have exceeded expectations.

Banks - 14th in win shares, 28th pick
Dennard - 39/78th
Brian Davis - 43/48th
Mason - 2/22nd
Corey - 10/13th
Battier - 5/6th
Booz - 2/24th
Deng - 3/7th
Duhon - 20/38th
McRoberts - 20/37
JJ - 7/11th
Singler - 20/33rd
Ryan Kelly - 17/48th
Hood - 4/23rd
Miles - 15/26th

Grant Hill met expectations: 3rd in win shares/3rd pick

Kyrie has come close: 2nd in win shares/1st pick
Elton - same: 2/1
Johnny D was 14/10

Hurley, Avery, and Nolan ended up with the worst "win shares" number for their draft classes.

We've been down this road before, and I don't want to rehash those arguments, but I would note that Laettner and Ferry haven't been mentioned. They certainly get a bad rap as the poster boys for Duke All Americans who didn't pan out in the pro's (unfair or no). And Phil played against both while he was coach of the Bulls. Do you have their respective win share #s?

[Jeffrey]

We've been down this road before, and I don't want to rehash those arguments, but I would note that Laettner and Ferry haven't been mentioned. They certainly get a bad rap as the poster boys for Duke All Americans who didn't pan out in the pro's (unfair or no). And Phil played against both while he was coach of the Bulls. Do you have their respective win share #s?

I agree, those two would have been high on Phil's list.

[sagegrouse]

We've been down this road before, and I don't want to rehash those arguments, but I would note that Laettner and Ferry haven't been mentioned. They certainly get a bad rap as the poster boys for Duke All Americans who didn't pan out in the pro's (unfair or no). And Phil played against both while he was coach of the Bulls. Do you have their respective win share #s?


I agree, those two would have been high on Phil's list.

I have done a detailed analysis, in the manner of St. Thomas Aquinas, in looking at the "Vertical and Horizontal Equality" of Christian Laettner and other players.

Vertical Equality: In terms of the 1992 draft, #3 pick Laettner, in comparison to the top 15 picks, was #4 in points, #4 in rebounds and #4 in assists. Other players from that draft, who were below Christian but did about as well were #4 Jimmy Jackson, #6 Tom Gugliotta, and #9 Clarence Weatherspoon. Laettner clearly had a less impactful career than #1 Shaquille and # 2 Alonzo -- duh! -- he did well in comparison to others in the 1992 draft.

Horizontal Equality: I also looked at Christian in comparison to the #3 picks from 1984 (Jordan) through 1998 (LaFrentz). Of the 15 #3 selections, Christian was # 7 in points, # 3 in rebounds, and #6 in assists. Clearly, in terms of "horizontal equality," Christian exceeded the average performance of # 3 picks. Lots of rebounds and lots of assists seems to be a rare combination (Jordan was # 1 in both and Grant was # 5 in rebounds and # 3 in assists).

Christian Laettner was a good, solid # 3 pick in the draft, both compared to his peers in the 1992 draft and the other players picked at # 3.

[duke blue brewcrew]

Exceeded:
Boozer
Redick
Randolph
Kyrie
Miles Plumlee
Lance

Didn't meet:

S. Williams
Nolan

Withholding judgment:

Rivers

Everyone else (since '99) has more or less met my expectations.

Off the top of my head, two glaring omissions from the exceeds expectations column include: Brand, Deng. Both have been All-Stars
Meets Expectations - Mike Dunleavy

[Duvall]

We've been down this road before, and I don't want to rehash those arguments, but I would note that Laettner and Ferry haven't been mentioned. They certainly get a bad rap as the poster boys for Duke All Americans who didn't pan out in the pro's (unfair or no). And Phil played against both while he was coach of the Bulls. Do you have their respective win share #s?

Laettner, drafted 3rd, is 5th in win shares behind Shaq, Mourning, Robert Horry, and P.J. Brown. (http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_1992.html) Not too bad, probably would have ended up higher without the Achilles.

Ferry, drafted 2nd, was 11th. (http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_1989.html) Not good.

[Reilly]

...

Ferry, drafted 2nd, was 11th. (http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_1989.html) Not good.

... and yet better than Pervis Ellison (17th win shares/1st pick; JR Reid 16th WS/5th pick; Stacey King 22nd WS/6th pick; and Randy White 29 WS/8th pick).

[OldPhiKap]

^^^^^. AAARRGGHHHH!!!!!!!! Don't say that name! You know how much more therapy is gonna cost?!?

[phaedrus]

Do you truly believe Kyrie has exceeded expectations? He was the best PG in college hoops as a November & early Dec. Freshman.

I expected he would eventually be one of the top PGs in the league, but not that he would almost immediately be one of the most electrifying offensive players in the league. Might be more accurate to say that he exceeded expectations his first two years, but merely met (very high) expectations his third and fourth years.

[Steven43]

I have done a detailed analysis, in the manner of St. Thomas Aquinas, in looking at the "Vertical and Horizontal Equality" of Christian Laettner and other players.

Vertical Equality: In terms of the 1992 draft, #3 pick Laettner, in comparison to the top 15 picks, was #4 in points, #4 in rebounds and #4 in assists. Other players from that draft, who were below Christian but did about as well were #4 Jimmy Jackson, #6 Tom Gugliotta, and #9 Clarence Weatherspoon. Laettner clearly had a less impactful career than #1 Shaquille and # 2 Alonzo -- duh! -- he did well in comparison to others in the 1992 draft.

Horizontal Equality: I also looked at Christian in comparison to the #3 picks from 1984 (Jordan) through 1998 (LaFrentz). Of the 15 #3 selections, Christian was # 7 in points, # 3 in rebounds, and #6 in assists. Clearly, in terms of "horizontal equality," Christian exceeded the average performance of # 3 picks. Lots of rebounds and lots of assists seems to be a rare combination (Jordan was # 1 in both and Grant was # 5 in rebounds and # 3 in assists).

Christian Laettner was a good, solid # 3 pick in the draft, both compared to his peers in the 1992 draft and the other players picked at # 3.
This is basically what I have tried to explain to people--though I have not had the informative statistics you provided--when Christian gets mentioned as having been a failure in the NBA. I don't understand why he is perceived that way, and it bothers me.

I suspect a big part of the reason is the fact that he went to Duke and he's white. I don't have anything to back that up; just my perception. I really wish all the Duke-bashing would stop. It wasn't this way before 2001. I don't see why it has to continue forever. I'm tired of it.

Why aren't the other Blue Blood schools and their players held to the same standard as Duke? It's ridiculous.

[superdave]

Laettner, drafted 3rd, is 5th in win shares behind Shaq, Mourning, Robert Horry, and P.J. Brown. (http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_1992.html) Not too bad, probably would have ended up higher without the Achilles.

Ferry, drafted 2nd, was 11th. (http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_1989.html) Not good.

Robert Horry and PJ Brown were in the right place at the right time for a really long time.

[JasonEvans]

What started out as a truly silly thread talking about a months-old article has morphed into some fascinating research by Reilly and Sage. Mad props to both of you! This is what makes the DBR great!

-Jason "Sporks all around! " Evans

[lotusland]

I agree, those two would have been high on Phil's list.

Langdon should probably be included too but really he was just drafted too high for a 6'3 shooting guard with average quickness. Outstanding college player who might have stuck in the right situation but not a lock by any means.

[Highlander]

This is basically what I have tried to explain to people--though I have not had the informative statistics you provided--when Christian gets mentioned as having been a failure in the NBA. I don't understand why he is perceived that way, and it bothers me.

I suspect a big part of the reason is the fact that he went to Duke and he's white. I don't have anything to back that up; just my perception. I really wish all the Duke-bashing would stop. It wasn't this way before 2001. I don't see why it has to continue forever. I'm tired of it.

Why aren't the other Blue Blood schools and their players held to the same standard as Duke? It's ridiculous.

Probably some racial, "I hate Christian Laettner" component to it. I tend to think the "success" argument is primarily because he spent the majority of his NBA career on teams that were bad. The argument is essentially "If he were so great, why didn't his teams win?"

To draw a comparison - Vinny Testaverde and Kerry Collins are top 12 in all time passing yards in the NFL, and had long careers. But I never hear either mentioned in a list of the top QB's to ever play the game.

Ultimately it depends on what ruler you use. I like the win shares scale as it is the most fair.

[CDu]

Langdon should probably be included too but really he was just drafted too high for a 6'3 shooting guard with average quickness. Outstanding college player who might have stuck in the right situation but not a lock by any means.

Yeah, although Langdon is a complicated case. He probably could have still been a top-20 win-shares guy for his class, but he chose not to hang around as a reserve in the NBA and instead was a star in Europe for nearly a decade. So he wound up 29th in win shares after being drafted 11th.

He certainly wasn't the biggest bust of his draft class though. Avery and Radojevic took the cake in that regard, each producing negative win shares.

[sagegrouse]

This is basically what I have tried to explain to people--though I have not had the informative statistics you provided--when Christian gets mentioned as having been a failure in the NBA. I don't understand why he is perceived that way, and it bothers me.

I suspect a big part of the reason is the fact that he went to Duke and he's white. I don't have anything to back that up; just my perception. I really wish all the Duke-bashing would stop. It wasn't this way before 2001. I don't see why it has to continue forever. I'm tired of it.

Why aren't the other Blue Blood schools and their players held to the same standard as Duke? It's ridiculous.

I wouldn't overreact to such talk, galling as it may be. Those who are inclined to criticize the Duke program are often clutching at straws. And despite the seeming volume of such criticism, Duke is by far the most popular basketball program. For example, see the 2014 article, "Duke Tops Harris Poll Of Favorite College Basketball Teams For Fifth Straight Year." (http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2014/03/27/Research-and-Ratings/Harris-Poll.aspx)

Laettner was not as big a star in the NBA as he was in college, which was reflected in his # 3 draft position. In fact, how could he have been? Knowledgeable members of the sports press have more than once cited him as one of the top five college players of all time. He had a good, solid NBA career, which would have been even better without the Achilles tendon problem.

[Jeffrey]

I have done a detailed analysis, in the manner of St. Thomas Aquinas, in looking at the "Vertical and Horizontal Equality" of Christian Laettner and other players.

Vertical Equality: In terms of the 1992 draft, #3 pick Laettner, in comparison to the top 15 picks, was #4 in points, #4 in rebounds and #4 in assists. Other players from that draft, who were below Christian but did about as well were #4 Jimmy Jackson, #6 Tom Gugliotta, and #9 Clarence Weatherspoon. Laettner clearly had a less impactful career than #1 Shaquille and # 2 Alonzo -- duh! -- he did well in comparison to others in the 1992 draft.

Horizontal Equality: I also looked at Christian in comparison to the #3 picks from 1984 (Jordan) through 1998 (LaFrentz). Of the 15 #3 selections, Christian was # 7 in points, # 3 in rebounds, and #6 in assists. Clearly, in terms of "horizontal equality," Christian exceeded the average performance of # 3 picks. Lots of rebounds and lots of assists seems to be a rare combination (Jordan was # 1 in both and Grant was # 5 in rebounds and # 3 in assists).

Christian Laettner was a good, solid # 3 pick in the draft, both compared to his peers in the 1992 draft and the other players picked at # 3.

Excellent analysis.... thanks!

My expectations for Christian were not based on his draft position. It was a rare year of amazing bigs. There were many other years, during your analysis period, when, I think, Christian would have been one of the top two picks.

My expectations for Christian were based upon his play at Duke. He was the best Duke player during the Coach K period of many great players. I think he was one of the five best ACC players since 1970 (Thompson, Sampson, Bias, Duncan, and Laettner).

[BD80]

I would suggest consulting Knickerbocker fans, they will verify that Phil Jackson is an expect in failing to meet expectations.

[Monmouth77]

Excellent analysis.... thanks!

My expectations for Christian were not based on his draft position. It was a rare year of amazing bigs. There were many other years, during your analysis period, when, I think, Christian would have been one of the top two picks.

My expectations for Christian were based upon his play at Duke. He was the best Duke player during the Coach K period of many great players. I think he was one of the five best ACC players since 1970 (Thompson, Sampson, Bias, Duncan, and Laettner).

Another fun tool is the player comparisons (similarity scores) posted on the basketball-reference site. It is derivative of the win-shares metric and some other calculations. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/laettch01.html

Laettner's career is most similar to guys like Antonio McDyess, Hedo Turkoglu, Derrick Coleman and Luol Deng (through 13 seasons). All very nice NBA players with an all-star appearance here and there.

But based on Laettner's brilliant college career, people compare him to, say, Dirk Nowitski or Paul Pierce. That's the disconnect.

[Duvall]

I wouldn't overreact to such talk, galling as it may be. Those who are inclined to criticize the Duke program are often clutching at straws. And despite the seeming volume of such criticism, Duke is by far the most popular basketball program. For example, see the 2014 article, "Duke Tops Harris Poll Of Favorite College Basketball Teams For Fifth Straight Year." (http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2014/03/27/Research-and-Ratings/Harris-Poll.aspx)

I mean, you keep saying that like the fact that Duke gets a small plurality in a poll that most records what college basketball program comes to mind first for people that don't follow college basketball somehow negates the fact that it's damned annoying that radio and television personalities and Internet and print publications feel comfortable filling column space with attacks on Duke, on Duke's coach, on Duke's players, on Duke fans for choosing to like the school and Duke alumni for having chosen to go there.

Does it matter? Not really. But it sure as hell is wearying.

[Jeffrey]

I think Laettner was Coach K's greatest success! Christian did not play nice with others (except Brian) and Coach K exploited, the hell out of, that fact. Hurley made Laettner better and Christian made Bobby much better. If Christian's, many, NBA coaches had Coach K's leadership and motivational skills, then I think Laettner would have had a much better NBA career. Instead, Christian moved from team to team when that was less common.

[Jeffrey]

I mean, you keep saying that like the fact that Duke gets a small plurality in a poll that most records what college basketball program comes to mind first for people that don't follow college basketball somehow negates the fact that it's damned annoying that radio and television personalities and Internet and print publications feel comfortable filling column space with attacks on Duke, on Duke's coach, on Duke's players, on Duke fans for choosing to like the school and Duke alumni for having chosen to go there.

Does it matter? Not really. But it sure as hell is wearying.

Is it just a hoops, or even sporting, issue? Long-term success, in America, frequently results in a target on your back. I know many wealthy people who feel compelled to hide their success and wealth. Duke can't hide it!

[Des Esseintes]

Is it just a hoops, or even sporting, issue? Long-term success, in America, frequently results in a target on your back. I know many wealthy people who feel compelled to hide their success and wealth. Duke can't hide it!

Yeah, well, that doesn't explain why such salt o' the earth types as the Dartmouth or Princeton graduates running programming for radio and magazines around the country feel such glee criticizing Duke's purported elitism.

[FerryFor50]

Phil Jackson is still trying to come to terms with what it means to be a successful coach in the NBA without two of the top 5 players in the NBA on the same team.

[gurufrisbee]

Phil Jackson is still trying to come to terms with what it means to be a successful coach in the NBA without two of the top 5 players in the NBA on the same team.

I was just about to write the same thing!

Why is it Duke's fault if players from Duke weren't as good in the NBA as they were in college?

How often do we see:

* NBA team wildly overdrafts a guy?
* Injury
* Players whose size and skill set were made for the college game but not the NBA game

And what if the guys from Duke who don't pan out are really just showing that they flourished while under the guide of the best coach in the history of the sport - and not the scrubs they got stuck with at the next level.

[wsb3]

Ferry played for 14 seasons in the NBA & Laettner played for 13 & made an all star team..I always thought the bust label was unfair.

[FerryFor50]

Ferry played for 14 seasons in the NBA & Laettner played for 13 & made an all star team..I always thought the bust label was unfair.

Laettner was also on a good track until his Achilles injury.

http://thehoopdoctors.com/2013/07/top-10-nba-careers-ruined-by-achilles-injuries-1992-2013/

[COYS]

Laettner was also on a good track until his Achilles injury.

http://thehoopdoctors.com/2013/07/top-10-nba-careers-ruined-by-achilles-injuries-1992-2013/

I think it's official that the "Laettner was a Bust" narrative is almost entirely based on Laettner hate and not on actual facts. He had a really good career that would've been even better without the achilles tendon tear (which, as most know, is far harder to recover from than even an ACL, just ask Elton who was actually on a borderline HOF trajectory prior to his achilles tear). Meanwhile, if anything has plagued Duke's best NBA prospects, it's been injury luck. Laettner, Hill, Williams, Brand, Maggette (to a lesser extent), Kyrie . . . Give Grant a little bit more health and he would've been a top 5 NBA player for far longer than he actual was. Let Brand get a few more years in his prime prior to tearing his achilles and he would've been a top 5 PF for an entire decade. Laettner is in a similar boat to Brand but with perhaps a slightly lower ceiling. As for Williams . . . dang motorcycle. Maggette's injuries were more of the death by a thousand cuts variety, but they probably prevented him from being a consistent 20ppg scorer. And Kyrie has HOF abilities if his game develops and he can stay healthy. Even with all these injuries, none of these guys were busts (except for Williams, perhaps, since his career ended so quickly). However, there are a lot of really productive years lost to injury in this list of players.

[Indoor66]

I think it's official that the "Laettner was a Bust" narrative is almost entirely based on Laettner hate and not on actual facts. He had a really good career that would've been even better without the achilles tendon tear (which, as most know, is far harder to recover from than even an ACL, just ask Elton who was actually on a borderline HOF trajectory prior to his achilles tear). Meanwhile, if anything has plagued Duke's best NBA prospects, it's been injury luck. Laettner, Hill, Williams, Brand, Maggette (to a lesser extent), Kyrie . . . Give Grant a little bit more health and he would've been a top 5 NBA player for far longer than he actual was. Let Brand get a few more years in his prime prior to tearing his achilles and he would've been a top 5 PF for an entire decade. Laettner is in a similar boat to Brand but with perhaps a slightly lower ceiling. As for Williams . . . dang motorcycle. Maggette's injuries were more of the death by a thousand cuts variety, but they probably prevented him from being a consistent 20ppg scorer. And Kyrie has HOF abilities if his game develops and he can stay healthy. Even with all these injuries, none of these guys were busts (except for Williams, perhaps, since his career ended so quickly). However, there are a lot of really productive years lost to injury in this list of players.

You can add Hurley to this list, as well.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think it's official that the "Laettner was a Bust" narrative is almost entirely based on Laettner hate and not on actual facts. He had a really good career that would've been even better without the achilles tendon tear (which, as most know, is far harder to recover from than even an ACL, just ask Elton who was actually on a borderline HOF trajectory prior to his achilles tear). Meanwhile, if anything has plagued Duke's best NBA prospects, it's been injury luck. Laettner, Hill, Williams, Brand, Maggette (to a lesser extent), Kyrie . . . Give Grant a little bit more health and he would've been a top 5 NBA player for far longer than he actual was. Let Brand get a few more years in his prime prior to tearing his achilles and he would've been a top 5 PF for an entire decade. Laettner is in a similar boat to Brand but with perhaps a slightly lower ceiling. As for Williams . . . dang motorcycle. Maggette's injuries were more of the death by a thousand cuts variety, but they probably prevented him from being a consistent 20ppg scorer. And Kyrie has HOF abilities if his game develops and he can stay healthy. Even with all these injuries, none of these guys were busts (except for Williams, perhaps, since his career ended so quickly). However, there are a lot of really productive years lost to injury in this list of players.

I'm not so sure. I think the "Laettner was a Bust" is based on college performance vs NBA performance rather than the more accurate Draft Position vs NBA performance.

Laettner was the college star in the 1990s. This carried well into his NBA career. I can't really think of a college player in the last half century who was more celebrated as a college player. With the publicity, the accolades, and the success that Laettner achieved, many expected him to also achieve these in the NBA. Incredibly unrealistic, but that's they way fans think.

[jimsumner]

You can add Hurley to this list, as well.

Johnny Dawkins lost a step to a knee injury and I don't think he ever got it back. And although unlikely to ever be stars, Gene Banks, Mark Alarie and Roshown McLeod all had their careers come to a sudden end because of injuries. Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy both have missed a boatload of games. Josh McRoberts had the best season of his career in 2014 and missed most of the 2015 season with an injury, while rookies Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood had injuries. Nolan Smith's attempt to get back into the league was short-circuited by an ACL injury.

One would think that McRoberts and Parker will make full recoveries and Hood looked pretty darn good this summer. And the NBA has a brutally long season and injuries are common. But the injury bug does seem to bite former Duke players with some regularity.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Johnny Dawkins lost a step to a knee injury and I don't think he ever got it back. And although unlikely to ever be stars, Gene Banks, Mark Alarie and Roshown McLeod all had their careers come to a sudden end because of injuries. Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy both have missed a boatload of games. Josh McRoberts had the best season of his career in 2014 and missed most of the 2015 season with an injury, while rookies Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood had injuries. Nolan Smith's attempt to get back into the league was short-circuited by an ACL injury.

One would think that McRoberts and Parker will make full recoveries and Hood looked pretty darn good this summer. And the NBA has a brutally long season and injuries are common. But the injury bug does seem to bite former Duke players with some regularity.

You can say similar things about other programs (Marquette, UCLA quickly come to mind). Injuries are injuries, and I don't think Duke is unique at all in this matter.

Frankly speaking, I'd rather be known as the school that "underperforms in the NBA" rather than the school whose players "get injured regularly" because at least you can be effective on the floor and you can't on the bench. However, I feel that both of these statements are innaccurate when you compare to other schools.

[CDu]

I'm not so sure. I think the "Laettner was a Bust" is based on college performance vs NBA performance rather than the more accurate Draft Position vs NBA performance.

Laettner was the college star in the 1990s. This carried well into his NBA career. I can't really think of a college player in the last half century who was more celebrated as a college player. With the publicity, the accolades, and the success that Laettner achieved, many expected him to also achieve these in the NBA. Incredibly unrealistic, but that's they way fans think.

I agree that it had little to do with draft spot and everything to do with his college success/persona. Laettner was extremely successful in college. He went to four Final Fours, won two titles, was a Player of the Year nationally, and was the face of the most successful program of the era. That success led to him getting selected for the Dream Team, over the clearly more talented Shaquille O'Neal and perhaps more talented (we would find out later definitely more talented) Alonzo Mourning. That college success, along with the Dream Team selection over O'Neal and (to a lesser degree) Mourning implicitly set the bar for his NBA career. On top of that, he was extremely polarizing. People who didn't like him REALLY didn't like him. So they would certainly take any chance to criticize him.

So basically, he was set up for failure for two reasons: unbelievable college success, and that unbelievable college success getting him a spot on the Dream Team over a guy that most felt was a better player. If he couldn't outplay (or keep up with) O'Neal in the NBA, he was going to be viewed as a bust. He was a very good pro for about 6 or 7 years, then had the awful achilles injury and was never the same.

I think he also suffered a bit from playing in an era where his skill set wasn't as valued as it would be today. He was a classic stretch 4. But back then, your PF was not asked to shoot from the perimeter (because the 3pt shot was still the realm of smaller players). If he'd come to the NBA 10 years later, his career might have gone more successfully. He might have been more like a Chris Bosh.

[COYS]

You can say similar things about other programs (Marquette, UCLA quickly come to mind). Injuries are injuries, and I don't think Duke is unique at all in this matter.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Duke is unique with the injuries to former players. However, there was a perception (since largely debunked) that Duke guys systematically don't perform well in the NBA. I do think that part of the reason that misconception persisted was because some of the Duke stars who were best poised to be consistent top picks suffered injuries that prevented them from becoming perennial All NBA stars. Having just one iconic player in the league can bolster a program's perception for a long time, regardless of what has happened, recently. Grant Hill was on pace to be pretty close to an all time great. He was certainly a consistent top 5 player year in and year out when healthy. However, the second half of his prime years were robbed by injury. If he stays healthy and remains in the spotlight, then I think he could have single-handedly shrugged off the Duke-NBA myth. It's possible Laettner was doomed to appear like a bust no matter what just because of his college success (kind of like Tim Tebow, although Tebow was far worse in the NFL while many also suspected he wouldn't be able to handle the NFL game), but I still believe that if Hill hadn't suffered so many injuries, that myth may never have gotten traction.

At any rate, I think we're debating something that only someone with one foot stuck in the 20th Century like Phil Jackson really believes. The list of Dukies who have gone on to long, profitable, and successful NBA careers is so long at this point it's really a question of where Duke ranks on the all-time alumni list rather than whether or not Duke producers players who can cut it in the league.

[rasputin]

I'm not so sure. I think the "Laettner was a Bust" is based on college performance vs NBA performance rather than the more accurate Draft Position vs NBA performance.

Laettner was the college star in the 1990s. This carried well into his NBA career. I can't really think of a college player in the last half century who was more celebrated as a college player. With the publicity, the accolades, and the success that Laettner achieved, many expected him to also achieve these in the NBA. Incredibly unrealistic, but that's they way fans think.

College players in the last half century who were more celebrated (or equally celebrated) than Laettner would include
Lew Alcindor
Bill Walton
Pistol Pete Maravich

[JasonEvans]

I can't really think of a college player in the last half century who was more celebrated as a college player. With the publicity, the accolades, and the success that Laettner achieved, many expected him to also achieve these in the NBA. Incredibly unrealistic, but that's they way fans think.

Wellllll, I'm not so sure about this. Yes, everyone felt Laettner was clutch in college and that he was a "winner" who wanted the ball in important games, but I don't know that he was nearly as widely "celebrated" as you seem to indicate. Plenty of folks felt Shaq was the better player Laettner's senior year and Christian wasn't even really in the NPOY conversation as a junior. He was only ACC Player of the Year once and only a first team All-American once. Those are amazing accomplishments, but there have been plenty of 2+ time All-Americans over the past twenty years and lots of guys to achieve the same awards as Laettner before their senior season. There wasn't much conversation or controversy at all about him being picked 3rd in the NBA draft, everyone was fairly sure that Mourning and Shaq would be better pros.

I think a fairly solid argument can be made that Tim Duncan, Jason Williams, and Tyler Hansbrough were more "celebrated" than Laettner in college. If you go back before Laettner's time, certainly Ralph Sampson, Michael Jordan, David Thompson, Bill Walton, and Lew Alcindor were more decorated in college than Laettner was.

I say none of this to bring down Christian or taint his legacy, but the reality is that he was not someone who stood out above all the other college greats in terms of his individual college career.

-Jason "the success of the Duke TEAM clouds our memory a bit, I think and enhances Christian's stature in retrospect" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't think anyone is arguing that Duke is unique with the injuries to former players. However, there was a perception (since largely debunked) that Duke guys systematically don't perform well in the NBA. I do think that part of the reason that misconception persisted was because some of the Duke stars who were best poised to be consistent top picks suffered injuries that prevented them from becoming perennial All NBA stars. Having just one iconic player in the league can bolster a program's perception for a long time, regardless of what has happened, recently. Grant Hill was on pace to be pretty close to an all time great. He was certainly a consistent top 5 player year in and year out when healthy. However, the second half of his prime years were robbed by injury. If he stays healthy and remains in the spotlight, then I think he could have single-handedly shrugged off the Duke-NBA myth. It's possible Laettner was doomed to appear like a bust no matter what just because of his college success (kind of like Tim Tebow, although Tebow was far worse in the NFL while many also suspected he wouldn't be able to handle the NFL game), but I still believe that if Hill hadn't suffered so many injuries, that myth may never have gotten traction.

At any rate, I think we're debating something that only someone with one foot stuck in the 20th Century like Phil Jackson really believes. The list of Dukies who have gone on to long, profitable, and successful NBA careers is so long at this point it's really a question of where Duke ranks on the all-time alumni list rather than whether or not Duke producers players who can cut it in the league.

I think you hit the nail on the head with the lack of a Superstar. Grant Hill was a great player, but injuries and this guy named Michael Jordan really stole the show when Grant shined brightest.

Duke doesn't have the equivalent of a Jordan (UNC), a Magic (MSU), a Chamberlain (Kansas), Isiah (IU), or a Kareem (UCLA). We've had Stars (Hill, Kyrie) and really good All-Stars (Boozer, Brand, Laettner), but never a transcendent player. And the vast majority of schools don't have one (does Kentucky?).

I also think the exposure of Duke basketball leading to unrealistic expectations has a lot to do with it. Okafor was talked about 15x as much as Russell during the college basketball year, and I'm sure Okafor's professional career will be much more scrutinized than Russell's. Whether it's fair or not, expectations is the game you play when you come to Duke.

[Duvall]

I also think the exposure of Duke basketball leading to unrealistic expectations has a lot to do with it. Okafor was talked about 15x as much as Russell during the college basketball year, and I'm sure Okafor's professional career will be much more scrutinized than Russell's. Whether it's fair or not, expectations is the game you play when you come to Duke.

This seems unlikely given the franchises where each player landed. But it is more likely that any struggles by Okafor would be attributed to Duke in a way that struggles by Russell wouldn't be attributed to OSU.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wellllll, I'm not so sure about this. Yes, everyone felt Laettner was clutch in college and that he was a "winner" who wanted the ball in important games, but I don't know that he was nearly as widely "celebrated" as you seem to indicate. Plenty of folks felt Shaq was the better player Laettner's senior year and Christian wasn't even really in the NPOY conversation as a junior. He was only ACC Player of the Year once and only a first team All-American once. Those are amazing accomplishments, but there have been plenty of 2+ time All-Americans over the past twenty years and lots of guys to achieve the same awards as Laettner before their senior season. There wasn't much conversation or controversy at all about him being picked 3rd in the NBA draft, everyone was fairly sure that Mourning and Shaq would be better pros.

I think a fairly solid argument can be made that Tim Duncan, Jason Williams, and Tyler Hansbrough were more "celebrated" than Laettner in college. If you go back before Laettner's time, certainly Ralph Sampson, Michael Jordan, David Thompson, Bill Walton, and Lew Alcindor were more decorated in college than Laettner was.

I say none of this to bring down Christian or taint his legacy, but the reality is that he was not someone who stood out above all the other college greats in terms of his individual college career.

-Jason "the success of the Duke TEAM clouds our memory a bit, I think and enhances Christian's stature in retrospect" Evans

Laettner graduated with the following NCAA tournament records:

Most points scored: 407
Most free throws made: 142
Most free throw attempts: 167
Most games won: 21
Most games played: 23

Now, Duke may have played great team basketball (which is obviously above the individual), but let's not sugar coat the obvious: Laettner was downright successful in college and - when it counted the most (the NCAA Tournament) - he was brilliant. Also, he was a really liked player in college. Duke wasn't anywhere near the behemoth that they are today. They were treated more like the glorified cinderellas of today. Of course, during the early 90s when Laettner was an upperclassman and had gained some success, that perception began to shift.

Also, here are some other accolades that Laettner won in college:

USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year (1991)
2× NCAA champion (1991–1992)
NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player (1991)
National college player of the year (1992)
Consensus first-team All-American (1992)
Consensus second-team All-American (1991)
ACC Player of the Year (1992)
2× ACC Athlete of the Year (1991–1992)

It's a pretty compelling list. The best player on the best basketball team will always gain praise. It's only natural.

[Jeffrey]

Also, he was a really liked player in college. Duke wasn't anywhere near the behemoth that they are today. They were treated more like the glorified cinderellas of today. Of course, during the early 90s when Laettner was an upperclassman and had gained some success, that perception began to shift.


Yep, the LSU fans treated him with great respect!

[Jeffrey]

I think a fairly solid argument can be made that Tim Duncan, Jason Williams, and Tyler Hansbrough were more "celebrated" than Laettner in college.

Please, make it for Williams and Hansbrough.

I think David Thompson was the best to play in the ACC. I think only Sampson, Bias, and Duncan also had Laettner level ACC careers.

[brlftz]

Please, make it for Williams and Hansbrough.

I think David Thompson was the best to play in the ACC. I think only Sampson, Bias, and Duncan also had Laettner level ACC careers.

agree, I was at Duke at the time, and Laettner was unique. He had an aura of invincibility that went beyond mere basketball skills and a personality that fascinated people. People cared about whether he won or lost, and non-basketball fans followed him. Will anyone be doing 30 for 30 specials about hansblahblah 15 years from now?

[brevity]

Will anyone be doing 30 for 30 specials about hansblahblah 15 years from now?

On ESPN? Probably not. But maybe on the Travel Channel.

[JasonEvans]

Please, make it for Williams and Hansbrough.

JWill won national player of the year awards as a soph and was the consensus NPOY as a junior. Laettner only won NPOY as a senior. JWill was a first-team All-American 2 times, as a soph and a junior, while Laettner was only a 1st team All-American once. JWill scored more points per game as a soph than Christian did as a senior. It is sorta close (because JWill only played 3 seasons as opposed to 4 for Christian) but JWill got more national acclaim and awards than Laettner did.

Hansbrough was a 3 time first-team All-American, which is extremely rare and far exceeds what Laettner achieved. He is the leading scorer in ACC history, something that made national headlines. Laettner never achieved anything like that (other than hitting "the shot" and winning a pair of rings to Hasbro's 1).

-Jason "take away the rings* (which I consider a team achievement) and Laettner is no more than a fairly typical NPOY performer in terms of his national accolades" Evans

* - This sounds utterly ridiculous as rings are the ultimate goal and perhaps the ultimate measuring stick. Still, I stick by my assertion that Laettner wasn't even close to "the most celebrated" college hoops player of the past 50 years

[rasputin]

On ESPN? Probably not. But maybe on the Travel Channel.

I'd like the record to reflect my unsuccessful attempt to spork this.

[brlftz]

...I stick by my assertion that Laettner wasn't even close to "the most celebrated" college hoops player of the past 50 years

I guess we're using different definitions of "celebrated". None those people were close to being the cultural phenomenon that Laettner was and still is.

[Richard Berg]

On ESPN? Probably not. But maybe on the Travel Channel.
Zing!

[JasonEvans]

I guess we're using different definitions of "celebrated". None those people were close to being the cultural phenomenon that Laettner was and still is.

I 100% agree. I did not see the statement as a measure of "cultural phenomenon." I was thinking of "celebrated" as awards and accolades. That is why my responses largely focused on that arena.

I would add one more thing -- if "the shot" does not go in, Laettner's career is really only a little bit more impressive than, for example, Frank Kaminsky. Obviously, "the shot" is a signature moment and something that exemplifies the cool-under-pressure-and-unflinching-desire-to-win attitude that makes Laettner such a special player, but it is sorta interesting to think about how much our perception of him is tied up in that one event that could have easily gone a different direction.

-Jason "I feel ill from some of my posts in this thread... I'll take Laettner a million times over Hanstravel!" Evans

[sagegrouse]

I'm not so sure. I think the "Laettner was a Bust" is based on college performance vs NBA performance rather than the more accurate Draft Position vs NBA performance.

Laettner was the college star in the 1990s. This carried well into his NBA career. I can't really think of a college player in the last half century who was more celebrated as a college player. With the publicity, the accolades, and the success that Laettner achieved, many expected him to also achieve these in the NBA. Incredibly unrealistic, but that's they way fans think.

Lew Alcindor, Bill Walton, and -- just a little bit earlier -- the Big O. The Big E was also more highly touted than Laettner, based primarily on one game against Big Lew.

Edit: and I should have added Pistol Pete, but he never won a damned thing in college.

[Clay Feet POF]

On ESPN? Probably not. But maybe on the Travel Channel.


You still got It!

[BD80]

On ESPN? Probably not. But maybe on the Travel Channel.

Brevity is the wit of us all

[flyingdutchdevil]

Brevity is the wit of us all

Brevity is the only poster on DBR whose jokes always land. It's pretty amazing. Most posters achieve a 50% hit rate. Some, like myself, are below 25%. But Brevity? A solid 100%. Impressive...very impressive.

[sagegrouse]

Brevity is the only poster on DBR whose jokes always land. It's pretty amazing. Most posters achieve a 50% hit rate. Some, like myself, are below 25%. But Brevity? A solid 100%. Impressive...very impressive.

That's because -- all together now -- Brevity is the Soul of Wit.

[Jeffrey]

Hansbrough was a 3 time first-team All-American, which is extremely rare and far exceeds what Laettner achieved. He is the leading scorer in ACC history, something that made national headlines. Laettner never achieved anything like that (other than hitting "the shot" and winning a pair of rings to Hasbro's 1).

-Jason "take away the rings* (which I consider a team achievement) and Laettner is no more than a fairly typical NPOY performer in terms of his national accolades" Evans

* - This sounds utterly ridiculous as rings are the ultimate goal and perhaps the ultimate measuring stick. Still, I stick by my assertion that Laettner wasn't even close to "the most celebrated" college hoops player of the past 50 years

As usual, your facts are completely accurate. However, I strongly disagree with some of your opinions.

I agree with your statement, "rings are the ultimate goal and perhaps the ultimate measuring stick". How many times were Hansbrough's teams a #1 seed and how many times did they make it to the Final Four? IIRC, he was on three #1 seeds and only made it to two Final Fours. How many times were Laettner's teams a #1 seed and how many times did they make it to the Final Four? IIRC, he was on only one #1 seed and made it to all four Final Fours. How many other players have started at four Final Fours? IIRC, none!

I totally disagree with your statements, "take away the rings* (which I consider a team achievement) and Laettner is no more than a fairly typical NPOY performer in terms of his national accolades" and "Laettner never achieved anything like that (other than hitting "the shot" and winning a pair of rings to Hasbro's 1)". IMO, Laettner did a hell of a lot more than hitting "the shot". What is the hardest NCAA Tournament game to win? IMO, the Regional Finals. And, aside from "the shot", how did Christian perform in his four Regional Finals which made him the only player to have started at four Final Fours?

1989 Regional Finals: Freshman Laettner goes 9/10 from the field (90%) and 6/7 from the line (85.7%) outscoring Ferry & Henderson. Christian is also the leading rebounder.

1990 Regional Finals: Laettner goes 7/8 from the field (87.5%) and 9/11 from the line (81.8%). Christian also hits this game winning buzzer-beater!

1991 Regional Finals: Laettner goes 5/6 from the field (83.3%) and 9/9 from the line (100%).

1992 Regional Finals: Laettner goes 10/10 from the field (100%) and 10/10 from the line (100%). And, as you said, Christian hits "the shot".

Please note, there was no buzzer-beater to take in 1989 (won by 8) or 1991 (won by 17). If there had have been, look at his stats, my calculator tells me Laettner would have made all four of "the shot"s.

I stick by my assertion that Laettner was the best to play at Duke and significantly better than Hansbrough.

[gurufrisbee]

Getting back to the point of the thread:

Phil paid like 40 million last year to build a team around Melo and Barganini.

This off season he committed 24 million more next year for Robin Lopez, Derrick Williams, and Aaron Afflalo.

Phil very well be the best expert ever on guys in the NBA who don't live up to expectations.

But he also RE-signed Lance Thomas - a Duke player who has MORE than exceeded his expectations and who is, easily, the best Knick for his salary on the entire time.

Phil is, as usual, full of crap.