PDA

View Full Version : Where will the points come from in 2015/2016



Saratoga2
04-29-2015, 07:04 PM
This is a rrelated subject to the prediction of how many minutes players will get next season. Many who post have us with at least two if not three starting freshmen. That situation means our defense will have to grow as the season moves along. Will we initially give up 70 and more points as game for the first couple of months or more? If we do, we will need to replace the scoring from 4 key players last season. It looks like the front court is not filled with scorers unless Brandon moves there. I rather think he is a better fit at the 3. So where is the bulk of the scoring coming from?

1. Ingram If he averages 15 it would be an excellent season for a freshman
2. Kennard If he averages 12 it would be great, but he has to get significant minutes to achieve that
3. Allen He has the potential to average 12 to be conservative but again, he has to get the minutes
4. Jones If he has improved his shot over the summer I would hope he could get 8 a game
5. Thornton An unknown as far as scoring. Maybe he can get 7 on average
6. Jefferson Let us hope he has a breakout year and can get his average up to 8 a game
7. Everyone else A lot to expect from the remaining guys is 10 a game.

That would be 70 a game and keep us in most games. I would be interested in how others see the scoring going and especially based on the minutes per game predictions.

CDu
04-29-2015, 08:05 PM
I don't think 8 ppg would be much of a breakout for Jefferson. With his current offensive role this year, averaging 28 mpg would get him to 8 ppg. I would consider double-figure scoring to be a breakout for him.

As for scoring, it is really hard to guess without knowing who wins the PT, and there are battles expected at at least two positions next year.

I will guess that Allen, Jones, and Kennard combine for around 30-35 ppg. I won't begin to guess with confidence how those will shake out.

I think Jefferson will get around 10 ppg.

I think Thornton adds 10 ppg or so.

I think Ingram can add 15 ppg.

And I think the triumvirate of bigs adds another 8-10 ppg.

That would put us in the 73-80 ppg range as a team.

OldPhiKap
04-29-2015, 08:07 PM
How many times do we play Virginia?

Newton_14
04-29-2015, 08:44 PM
I don't think 8 ppg would be much of a breakout for Jefferson. With his current offensive role this year, averaging 28 mpg would get him to 8 ppg. I would consider double-figure scoring to be a breakout for him.

As for scoring, it is really hard to guess without knowing who wins the PT, and there are battles expected at at least two positions next year.

I will guess that Allen, Jones, and Kennard combine for around 30-35 ppg. I won't begin to guess with confidence how those will shake out.

I think Jefferson will get around 10 ppg.

I think Thornton adds 10 ppg or so.

I think Ingram can add 15 ppg.

And I think the triumvirate of bigs adds another 8-10 ppg.

That would put us in the 73-80 ppg range as a team.

Agree and at the start of the season I expect things to be like the glory days of the 80's defensively, where the defense is well ahead of the offense. I do not see them giving up lots of points. Amile, MP3, Matt, Grayson can all defend their position well, as well as defend well in a team defense concept, and I expect that Ingram, and Thornton will also be high level defenders. Don't know about Jeter, but the tools are there. I think this team has a chance to be outstanding defensively. All the guys I named too except Thornton (don't know) rebound really well also.

As for scoring, Ingram is going to score double figures, only question is will he be closer to 15ppg or 20ppg. Kennard is a Natural Born Scorer, so as long as he gets decent minutes, he is going to put the ball in the hole in a myriad of ways. Grayson is also a guy that can score and as he as shown us already in limited minutes, he is both a scorer and a shooter. Combine those two talents with incredible athletic ability and you have the formula for a high volume scorer. I have little doubt that Grayson will be a mainstay as a starter, playing enough minutes to average double figures. I will be quite surprised if he does not make a big jump in minutes and points. Matt will do what he always does. Hit timely 3's, and pick his spots to drive it. Not a high volume scorer, but we won't need him to be.

Amile is the guy who I want to finally score the ball the way most of us know he can. Another year older, seasoned vet, having gone through the wars, and very crafty from foul line in. Hopefully this is finally the year where Amile stays aggressive at all times, and attacks the basket early and often. I will be very disappointed if he does not do that. We will see.

Kennard's defense is the wild card. Can he defend enough to stay on the floor? With Grayson, Matt, and Ingram, the competition is fierce. On the one hand, Kennard strikes me as the type of guy like Scheyer, who walks in the door on Day 1, and hangs double figures on teams night in and night out. His defense is my only question mark.

I honestly have no idea what Chase Jeter can do offensively or defensively. I just have not seen him play enough to get a read on him. I hear he is a good shooter for a big man, which would be very helpful. If true, K can play him with MP3 and not worry about spacing. Is he a threat from 3 or just a solid mid-range shooter?

Kedsy
04-29-2015, 09:00 PM
Will we initially give up 70 and more points as game for the first couple of months or more?

You kind of just slide this in there, but I don't think we'll give up that many points. Our defense before the tournament in 2014-15 was not particularly good, but we still only gave up 67.6 points per game in our first 32 games. Our defense in 2013-14 was dreadful, but we only gave up 67.4 points per game. I fully expect the 2015-16 version to be much better defensively than either of those editions (note again that I'm talking about pre-tournament 2014-15 Duke; Duke's 2015 during-the-tournament defense will be hard to match).

I'm assuming Brandon and Derryck will be better defensively than Jahlil and Tyus. This is based both on superior quickness and at least some defensive reputation for both players. Amile and Matt are both outstanding defenders. I thought, aside from some foolish fouls, Grayson showed pretty good defensive chops. Marshall as a fifth-year senior should be more than adequate, and Sean could be one of the best defensive rebounders in the country (and defensive rebounding is part of defense). I have no idea how good Luke's or Chase's defense will be, but with a seemingly very deep team if they can't cut it on defense they probably won't play so much. Personally, I think defense is going to be Duke's calling card next season. Assuming we play at a similar pace to the past couple seasons, we shouldn't give up anywhere close to 70 ppg.

That said, I think we need to acknowledge that points per game isn't nearly as good a way to have this discussion as points per possession. If Duke plays at a much faster pace then it's possible we'll give up 70+ ppg, but in that case our scoring per game will also be up too.


I don't think 8 ppg would be much of a breakout for Jefferson. With his current offensive role this year, averaging 28 mpg would get him to 8 ppg. I would consider double-figure scoring to be a breakout for him.

As for scoring, it is really hard to guess without knowing who wins the PT, and there are battles expected at at least two positions next year.

I will guess that Allen, Jones, and Kennard combine for around 30-35 ppg. I won't begin to guess with confidence how those will shake out.

I think Jefferson will get around 10 ppg.

I think Thornton adds 10 ppg or so.

I think Ingram can add 15 ppg.

And I think the triumvirate of bigs adds another 8-10 ppg.

That would put us in the 73-80 ppg range as a team.

I agree with everything here. I also think Derryck might have some scoring upside above 10 ppg. If Chase plays good minutes, then the Marshall/Sean/Chase "triumvirate" might go up a little as well. On the downside, while I likewise expect Amile to be around 10 ppg, he might stick at around 8ppg. It's possible the Grayson/Matt/Luke combo could end up in the 27 to 30 range, though I personally think your estimate is more likely.

So your range looks right to me, again assuming we play at a similar pace to the past few seasons (our Pomeroy adjusted pace in both 2014-15 and 2013-14 was 66.0). I think we'll see something along the lines of 74 to 79 ppg for Duke and 60 to 65 ppg for our opponents. And I'll be happy if that's the case.

-jk
04-29-2015, 09:04 PM
Agree and at the start of the season I expect things to be like the glory days of the 80's defensively, where the defense is well ahead of the offense. I do not see them giving up lots of points. Amile, MP3, Matt, Grayson can all defend their position well, as well as defend well in a team defense concept, and I expect that Ingram, and Thornton will also be high level defenders. Don't know about Jeter, but the tools are there. I think this team has a chance to be outstanding defensively. All the guys I named too except Thornton (don't know) rebound really well also.

As for scoring, Ingram is going to score double figures, only question is will he be closer to 15ppg or 20ppg. Kennard is a Natural Born Scorer, so as long as he gets decent minutes, he is going to put the ball in the hole in a myriad of ways. Grayson is also a guy that can score and as he as shown us already in limited minutes, he is both a scorer and a shooter. Combine those two talents with incredible athletic ability and you have the formula for a high volume scorer. I have little doubt that Grayson will be a mainstay as a starter, playing enough minutes to average double figures. I will be quite surprised if he does not make a big jump in minutes and points. Matt will do what he always does. Hit timely 3's, and pick his spots to drive it. Not a high volume scorer, but we won't need him to be.

Amile is the guy who I want to finally score the ball the way most of us know he can. Another year older, seasoned vet, having gone through the wars, and very crafty from foul line in. Hopefully this is finally the year where Amile stays aggressive at all times, and attacks the basket early and often. I will be very disappointed if he does not do that. We will see.

Kennard's defense is the wild card. Can he defend enough to stay on the floor? With Grayson, Matt, and Ingram, the competition is fierce. On the one hand, Kennard strikes me as the type of guy like Scheyer, who walks in the door on Day 1, and hangs double figures on teams night in and night out. His defense is my only question mark.

I honestly have no idea what Chase Jeter can do offensively or defensively. I just have not seen him play enough to get a read on him. I hear he is a good shooter for a big man, which would be very helpful. If true, K can play him with MP3 and not worry about spacing. Is he a threat from 3 or just a solid mid-range shooter?

If we have two frosh getting major minutes, team defense will take a bit...

-jk

1999ballboy
04-29-2015, 09:15 PM
For probably the fourth time on threads like this, I started to type a full breakdown of the team and couldn't do it. The main reason being the center position. It's really hard to predict without having seen either Obi or Jeter really play at this level. We have some idea of what we're getting with Marshall, but how are those three gonna split their minutes? Are we gonna play small-ball with Ingram filling the Jabari Parker role, Jefferson at the 5 and Grayson and Matt on the wings? Is Vrankovic gonna surprise everybody and sneak into the mix? I have absolutely no idea. I'm at more of a loss for preseason minutes/points speculation than usual.

-jk
04-29-2015, 09:18 PM
I'll toss my usual wet blanket: it depends on the match-ups. (Go figure!) And, of course, a Molotov cocktail: the "Hot Hand"!

-jk

theschwartz
04-29-2015, 09:31 PM
I'd be interested to see who our go-to guy will be next year when we absolutely need a bucket, someone we can expect to come up huge in clutch situations. Unlike previous off-seasons, the answer isn't immediately clear to me. Seems like Ingram could step into that role. Although it's not unusual for a freshman to take on that responsibility--just look at our freshmen last year (especially Tyus), Jabari the previous year, Rivers in 2011-2012--I never want to just assume that a kid is going to be ready to be "the guy" the moment he steps on campus. It's a lot to ask of a freshman. Those freshmen I mentioned were incredibly special players and I hesitate to just assume that Ingram will slide right in and replace them. I wonder if Grayson will be ready for that kind of role; he definitely showed he was ready in the biggest game of his life. Can he repeat that kind of performance every night when opposing teams are game-planning against him and know he's going to have the ball in his hands? What about Matt? Can he step up and hit a clutch 3 when we absolutely need it? Perhaps someone like Thornton or Kennard or Jefferson will step up and become that guy.

(On a side note: I would love to see Amile have a Carawell-esque senior year. Obviously very different players, but the leap that C-well made from his junior to senior year was critical to Duke's success that year. Can Amile do the same?)

It's an important question. Just think how many times Tyus saved our bacon last year, or Jabari the previous year. I'm hoping someone from next year's team can emerge and be that guy.

wacobluedevil
04-29-2015, 09:40 PM
who averaged 11.4 ppg as a freshman at Rice, plus he's had a year working with K and his staff.

CDu
04-29-2015, 09:53 PM
I can't shake the suspicion that folks are overselling Allen's readiness to be a leading man. He definitely had a few great games. But these games came when he was an afterthought and when teams weren't gameplanning for him. And even then, it was only a handful of games. It remains to be seen if he will be able to replicate that success with more consistency when teams are ready for his contributions and have a scouting report that includes him. I can't help but wonder if, like Kennard and Thornton as frosh, we will see Allen show some growing pains next year. I hope not, but it is definitely a thought in the back of my mind.

I agree with Newton_14 that early in the year we may have some bumps finding our offensive identity. I strongly suspect that Ingram will be our focal point, but all of the other pieces are up in the air. But like Newton and Kedsy said, on the defensive end I think we have a chance to be better earlier. Jefferson and Jones are terrific defensively and should play more. Ingram and Thornton are reportedly better defensively than Okafor and Jones. We don't have a defender as good as Winslow, but we may be substantially better at the other four spots.

I also wonder if we will consider sticking with the liberal use of the 2-3 zone. A back line of Jeferson and Ingram at forward and Plumlee or Jeter at C would be enough height/length to make Boeheim drool, and Jones and Thornton certainly have the athleticism to hound folks on the perimeter. So if the zone was more than just a one-time trick, I think next year's squad could potentially take it up a notch.

dukelifer
04-30-2015, 08:23 AM
I can't shake the suspicion that folks are overselling Allen's readiness to be a leading man. He definitely had a few great games. But these games came when he was an afterthought and when teams weren't gameplanning for him. And even then, it was only a handful of games. It remains to be seen if he will be able to replicate that success with more consistency when teams are ready for his contributions and have a scouting report that includes him. I can't help but wonder if, like Kennard and Thornton as frosh, we will see Allen show some growing pains next year. I hope not, but it is definitely a thought in the back of my mind.

I agree with Newton_14 that early in the year we may have some bumps finding our offensive identity. I strongly suspect that Ingram will be our focal point, but all of the other pieces are up in the air. But like Newton and Kedsy said, on the defensive end I think we have a chance to be better earlier. Jefferson and Jones are terrific defensively and should play more. Ingram and Thornton are reportedly better defensively than Okafor and Jones. We don't have a defender as good as Winslow, but we may be substantially better at the other four spots.

I also wonder if we will consider sticking with the liberal use of the 2-3 zone. A back line of Jeferson and Ingram at forward and Plumlee or Jeter at C would be enough height/length to make Boeheim drool, and Jones and Thornton certainly have the athleticism to hound folks on the perimeter. So if the zone was more than just a one-time trick, I think next year's squad could potentially take it up a notch.
Last year's team had Cook as a leader who had the skillset and experience to make a big contribution on the floor. With all the returning players and new players - consistency is the key. No one has shown it as of yet. Matt is the most experienced player who has the tools to be an offensive leader. I agree that this team could be disruptive on D and perhaps that will keep them close in games. Allen and Kennard are going to be good in the closing moments. Consistency will be the goal. It should be an interesting ride.

sagegrouse
04-30-2015, 08:41 AM
I can't shake the suspicion that folks are overselling Allen's readiness to be a leading man. He definitely had a few great games. But these games came when he was an afterthought and when teams weren't gameplanning for him. And even then, it was only a handful of games. It remains to be seen if he will be able to replicate that success with more consistency when teams are ready for his contributions and have a scouting report that includes him. I can't help but wonder if, like Kennard and Thornton as frosh, we will see Allen show some growing pains next year. I hope not, but it is definitely a thought in the back of my mind.

.
CDu, I love ya' like a brother, but I am on the opposite side of this argument.

First and least significantly, is the human instinct to focus on the recruits, whom no one has seen at the college level, and ignore the talent on the bench.

Second and more important, we have a player that is extremely athletic, who can shoot, and who is more intense than anyone else on the Duke team. Do you see how he goes for the ball, not only in the Final Four but in his limited minutes throughout the season. Oh, did I mention he makes his free throws?

Third, K loves intense players.

Fourth, I expect him to be an above-average defender. He is not bad now. Did you see him flick the all away from Kaminsky when he guarded him on one play during the Final?

Five, as Coach says, he is fearless.

Six, Jiminy Christmas! Duke created a whole new award just because of Grayson. And, and... the coaches will retroactively find comparable plays and players in past National Championships. So, Coach K goes to this effort and then decides to leave Grayson on the bench next season?

R-i-i-i-g-h-t!!

I happen tot hin

GGLC
04-30-2015, 09:10 AM
Sage, I think you and CDu are saying slightly different things.

BrazyATX
04-30-2015, 09:38 AM
Lets not forget last season we had a lot of question marks as well. Among them were these three more frequently than others:

1. Yes we had Quinn, but before this season did anyone expect him to become the leader he did or the improvement he saw on both offense and defense? If I remember correctly, there was more speculation on whether or not he would be comfortable playing off the ball.

2. Going into last season, who saw Tyus as the go to for points late? If you say you did, you're lying. If was Jahlil for most.

3. How good will our defense be?


I will agree that there are a ton of question marks this year, but we had a similar amount of concerns last year among high expectations. I expect Matt Jones to continue to improve on his shot, becoming more consistent and hopefully quicker with his release. I do not expect Amile to suddenly become someone we run plays for. I just don't see him as that guy based on the 3 years we've had him so far, and given some of the potential offensively gifted players we'll have around him. Marshall is Marshall. Great team guy, great hussle always, likely to see a slight improvement on defense, no expectations at all offensively.

Grayson and Obi are to me the most intriguing among those returning. Grayson really came on strong at the end as everyone here knows. But between the Wake game and the Championship game, we only saw glimpses but not enough time played to gauge how consistent he can be. Plus as many have said, it is different when teams game plan for you. The biggest thing I hope we avoid is a Suliamon type of regression (I know, there was more going on with Sheed than there likely is with Allen, but still). Obi averaged nearly a double double as a freshman, but it was at Rice. Who plays virtually no one (although I seem to recall seeing a post with his stats against other power 5 teams and they were decent). Rebounding ability is something that translates across levels of competition I believe, so as far as expectations, we have another rebounder. His offensive ability is such a big question mark though.

CDu
04-30-2015, 09:54 AM
Sage, I think you and CDu are saying slightly different things.

Bingo! I'm not saying Allen won't be a starter. I'm not saying Allen won't be the top minutes-getter of Jones/Kennard/Allen. I'm saying I won't be at all surprised if we see a bumpy season for him as he goes from being an afterthought to the opponents to being one of the main guys opponents gameplan for. In fact, my post kind of implies that I think Allen will be a primary minutes-getter; the opponent wouldn't be gameplanning for a guy getting 10-15 mpg.

Henderson
04-30-2015, 10:05 AM
Bingo! I'm not saying Allen won't be a starter. I'm not saying Allen won't be the top minutes-getter of Jones/Kennard/Allen. I'm saying I won't be at all surprised if we see a bumpy season for him as he goes from being an afterthought to the opponents to being one of the main guys opponents gameplan for. In fact, my post kind of implies that I think Allen will be a primary minutes-getter; the opponent wouldn't be gameplanning for a guy getting 10-15 mpg.

There's also the possibility that Allen's game may warrant starter minutes, but turn out to be best used to light fires from off the bench, a role he played pretty well last season.

sagegrouse
04-30-2015, 10:08 AM
Bingo! I'm not saying Allen won't be a starter. I'm not saying Allen won't be the top minutes-getter of Jones/Kennard/Allen. I'm saying I won't be at all surprised if we see a bumpy season for him as he goes from being an afterthought to the opponents to being one of the main guys opponents gameplan for. In fact, my post kind of implies that I think Allen will be a primary minutes-getter; the opponent wouldn't be gameplanning for a guy getting 10-15 mpg.

Fair point, and I addressed a different subject -- some posters have doubted if Grayson will be a starter. You didn't say that.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-30-2015, 10:43 AM
How many times do we play Virginia?

Four?

Henderson
04-30-2015, 11:09 AM
How many times do we play Virginia?


Four?

No, it's "Fore!" Rumor has it that OPK played behind Rick Pitino at Augusta National and nailed him in the butt with a 4 iron from the tee, then presented him with a "Here Comes Duke" t-shirt in the clubhouse.

OK, that's almost all made up, but it's more fun than the real story.

flyingdutchdevil
04-30-2015, 11:58 AM
1 - Ingram - 14ppg
2 - Allen - 12ppg
3 - Jefferson - 10ppg
4 - Thornton - 9 ppg
5 - M Jones - 8ppg
6 - Sean Obi - 6ppg
7 - Jeter - 4 ppg
8 - MP3 - 3ppg
9 - Kennard - 3 ppg
TOTAL: 69 ppg

FireOgilvie
04-30-2015, 12:10 PM
1 - Ingram - 14ppg
2 - Allen - 12ppg
3 - Jefferson - 10ppg
4 - Thornton - 9 ppg
5 - M Jones - 8ppg
6 - Sean Obi - 6ppg
7 - Jeter - 4 ppg
8 - MP3 - 3ppg
9 - Kennard - 3 ppg
TOTAL: 69 ppg

You must be assuming that Kennard never gets off the bench. This year is very tough to predict, but I think he'll be on our of top 2 scorers and will play a lot of minutes at PG as well as on the wing. I will also be very surprised if Ingram leads the team in scoring; it's either going to be Allen or Kennard, IMO.

flyingdutchdevil
04-30-2015, 12:18 PM
You must be assuming that Kennard never gets off the bench. This year is very tough to predict, but I think he'll be on our of top 2 scorers and will play a lot of minutes at PG as well as on the wing. I will also be very surprised if Ingram leads the team in scoring; it's either going to be Allen or Kennard, IMO.

Let's just say that I'm muuuuuuch higher on Obi and Jeter than most on this board, and I'm muuuuch lower on Kennard than most on this board.

yancem
04-30-2015, 01:53 PM
1 - Ingram - 14ppg
2 - Allen - 12ppg
3 - Jefferson - 10ppg
4 - Thornton - 9 ppg
5 - M Jones - 8ppg
6 - Sean Obi - 6ppg
7 - Jeter - 4 ppg
8 - MP3 - 3ppg
9 - Kennard - 3 ppg
TOTAL: 69 ppg


Let's just say that I'm muuuuuuch higher on Obi and Jeter than most on this board, and I'm muuuuch lower on Kennard than most on this board.

Apparently not that high on them. Picking them as 6th and 7th in ppg doesn't seem to showing too much confidence.

flyingdutchdevil
04-30-2015, 02:00 PM
Apparently not that high on them. Picking them as 6th and 7th in ppg doesn't seem to showing too much confidence.

Hahaha. Fair enough.

But I think Obi starts and gets plenty of minutes and Jeter is my wild card. Unlike this year or last year, I don't think we're a high scoring team next year. So I capped the scoring at 70. And I wouldn't be shocked to see it go in the 60s.

This team has the makings of a killer defensive team. So many athletes and so many players who like to play defense. There are indeed a lot of freshman, but freshman teams can be successful at D (see Kentucky, 2012 and Duke, March-April 2015)

dukelifer
04-30-2015, 02:08 PM
1 - Ingram - 14ppg
2 - Allen - 12ppg
3 - Jefferson - 10ppg
4 - Thornton - 9 ppg
5 - M Jones - 8ppg
6 - Sean Obi - 6ppg
7 - Jeter - 4 ppg
8 - MP3 - 3ppg
9 - Kennard - 3 ppg
TOTAL: 69 ppg

No way Kennard is that low. The kid is a shooting savant. You will be surprised.

flyingdutchdevil
04-30-2015, 02:12 PM
No way Kennard is that low. The kid is a shooting savant. You will be surprised.

If he can't get off the bench, he can't score. And I'm assuming that Thornton, Allen, Jones, and Ingram get a ton of minutes at the 1-3.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see our front court being dominated by the four listed above.

robed deity
04-30-2015, 02:40 PM
1 - Ingram - 14ppg
2 - Allen - 12ppg
3 - Jefferson - 10ppg
4 - Thornton - 9 ppg
5 - M Jones - 8ppg
6 - Sean Obi - 6ppg
7 - Jeter - 4 ppg
8 - MP3 - 3ppg
9 - Kennard - 3 ppg
TOTAL: 69 ppg

69 points seems awfully low. Even the relatively offensively challenged 2007 team averaged more. I agree this might be a more defensive minded team, but anything under 75 is short changing their offensive potential imo.

roywhite
04-30-2015, 02:51 PM
69 points seems awfully low. Even the relatively offensively challenged 2007 team averaged more. I agree this might be a more defensive minded team, but anything under 75 is short changing their offensive potential imo.

...and it looks like we'll see a 30-second shot clock; I'm guessing closer to 78 points/game or better.

I see Grayson Allen, Ingram, and Kennard as the best scorers here, though they may compete some for playing time.

subzero02
04-30-2015, 03:03 PM
1 - Ingram - 14ppg
2 - Allen - 12ppg
3 - Jefferson - 10ppg
4 - Thornton - 9 ppg
5 - M Jones - 8ppg
6 - Sean Obi - 6ppg
7 - Jeter - 4 ppg
8 - MP3 - 3ppg
9 - Kennard - 3 ppg
TOTAL: 69 ppg

I really can't see Kennard averaging so few points. The kid is way too talented on the offensive side of the ball to be held to such a low average.

JohnJ
04-30-2015, 03:31 PM
Sean Obi:

It seems that most people on this thread seem to think that Sean has very limited offensive capability. However, when you look back at his year at Rice, he led the team in scoring and had very decent numbers:

Points/gym: 11.4
Points per 40 min: 17.2 puts

Everyone seems to agree that he has very good rebounding stats:

Reb/game: 9.3
Reb per 40 min: 14.1

So the real question is how much playing time is going to get. If he gets rotation minutes, his results from Rice suggests he will be scoring points. I, for one, think he will start.

Richard Berg
04-30-2015, 03:34 PM
I really can't see Kennard averaging so few points. The kid is way too talented on the offensive side of the ball to be held to such a low average.

Offensive talent has never been enough to get off K's bench. See: Andre Dawkins, Marty Pocius, Taylor King...

JohnJ
04-30-2015, 03:36 PM
I agree. I think Sean starts due to his defense and rebounding.

MChambers
04-30-2015, 03:43 PM
I agree. I think Sean starts due to his defense and rebounding.
His rebounding seems great, and defensive rebounding is part of defense, but we have no idea about the rest of his defensive skills, do we?

Kedsy
04-30-2015, 03:47 PM
...and it looks like we'll see a 30-second shot clock; I'm guessing closer to 78 points/game or better.

This is a good point, and I assume most (if not all) the estimates in this thread are assuming a pace similar to what we've played in the recent past (our possessions per 40 minutes over the last six seasons have been: 66.3, 65.5, 68.2, 68.8, 70.2, 66.5). But if there's a 30-second shot clock and the number of possessions go up, then both Duke's scoring and the estimates given here should all be increased proportionately (# of increased possessions multiplied by predicted points per possession).


Sean Obi:

It seems that most people on this thread seem to think that Sean has very limited offensive capability. However, when you look back at his year at Rice, he led the team in scoring and had very decent numbers:

Points/gym: 11.4
Points per 40 min: 17.2 puts

Everyone seems to agree that he has very good rebounding stats:

Reb/game: 9.3
Reb per 40 min: 14.1

So the real question is how much playing time is going to get. If he gets rotation minutes, his results from Rice suggests he will be scoring points. I, for one, think he will start.

Sean's offensive rating at Rice was only 101.2, not particularly strong, especially on a low, mid-major. He didn't appear to shoot from beyond more than a few feet and couldn't hit free throws (54.4%). So, unlike his rebounding (which I expect to stay strong, possibly elite, at Duke), I'd say it's unlikely his offensive production will translate to the higher level of play. He'll probably only score on putbacks and receipt of dishes when his man leaves him to cover a drive.

dukelifer
04-30-2015, 03:55 PM
If he can't get off the bench, he can't score. And I'm assuming that Thornton, Allen, Jones, and Ingram get a ton of minutes at the 1-3.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see our front court being dominated by the four listed above.

I guess we will see - but he can handle, shoot from anywhere and hit throws at a high percentage. Unless he is a sieve on D- he will play.

Richard Berg
04-30-2015, 04:07 PM
Unless he is a sieve on D- he will play.
I hear Nick Horvath dunked all over him in pickup games.

JohnJ
04-30-2015, 04:16 PM
Sean's offensive rating at Rice was only 101.2, not particularly strong, especially on a low, mid-major. He didn't appear to shoot from beyond more than a few feet and couldn't hit free throws (54.4%). So, unlike his rebounding (which I expect to stay strong, possibly elite, at Duke), I'd say it's unlikely his offensive production will translate to the higher level of play. He'll probably only score on putbacks and receipt of dishes when his man leaves him to cover a drive.

It would not surprise me if you are right. It was just a revelation after all that I have read that Sean led his team in scoring as a freshman. It will be interesting to see what he does after working with the coaching staff for a year.

JohnJ
04-30-2015, 04:18 PM
His rebounding seems great, and defensive rebounding is part of defense, but we have no idea about the rest of his defensive skills, do we?

I know I don't. I am extrapolating from his size, rebounding ability and reported atheliticism.

dukelifer
04-30-2015, 04:53 PM
Offensive talent has never been enough to get off K's bench. See: Andre Dawkins, Marty Pocius, Taylor King...

When only 1 of your 4 returning players was a starter and none of the returnees averaged more than 6 points per game- I think all the old rules go out the window.

Kedsy
04-30-2015, 05:03 PM
When only 1 of your 4 returning players was a starter and none of the returnees averaged more than 6 points per game- I think all the old rules go out the window.

That might be true if we didn't have 5 or 6 quality newcomers. I agree with the OP that anyone who plays consistently poor defense next season will find himself near the bottom of the rotation, no matter how good his offense is. With the possible exception of Derryck and Brandon, though I have hopes that both will be more than adequate defensively.

CDu
04-30-2015, 05:04 PM
When only 1 of your 4 returning players was a starter and none of the returnees averaged more than 6 points per game- I think all the old rules go out the window.

See, JJ Redick, cerca 2003. Sometimes the team needs a scorer, even if he isn't great defensively. Not necessarily saying that will be the case with Kennard next year, but it isn't out of the question for the staff to go with offense over defense at SG.

COYS
04-30-2015, 05:12 PM
3, 2, 5, 10, 5, 1, 8, 19, 51, 4, 16, 3, 11, 1

Those are Duke's adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers for the KenPom era (going backwards from this past season). What I take from this is that I will be THOROUGHLY surprised if Duke doesn't have a good offense next year. The only year on this list that was outside the top 20 was 2007 when Duke had a hobbled Greg Paulus running an offense through Josh McRoberts who was better suited to be a facilitator rather than a go-to scorer. That team had a lot of offensive talent but it was young and either not quite ready for prime time (Gerald) or (in my opinion) slightly underutilized (Jon).

Otherwise, Duke has managed to maintain a ridiculously high level of on offense no matter who comes and goes. The departure of J Will, Carlos, and Mike, who led us to the number 1 offense, was followed by CDu, JJ, and Dahntay keeping Duke strong at number 11. After the abysmal (by Duke standards) year in 2007, the staff shook up the style and raised a team that lost it's only healthy post player to the draft in McRoberts to 16 in the nation (and at parts in the season when the team was firing on all cylinders, it was ranked even higher). After Gerald left for the pros and E Will transfered, the staff handed the offense to Jon who took it up from 8 to number 1. Despite losing the fulcrum of the offense in Kyrie Irving early in the season, Nolan and Kyle piloted Duke to the number 5 offense the following season. In both 2012 and 2013, Duke had the top offense in the land at times, only to see Ryan injured. Despite his injuries in both seasons, Duke still had a top 10 offense. Last year, the offense was led by Jabari, Rodney, and (at times) Rasheed. This year, the offense was almost equally as efficient despite losing all three of those guys.

While we lost a lot of talent, we already have at least one guy with the mentality to be a go-to scorer returning in Grayson. Ingram is one of the best scorers in the incoming class. And Luke is known as a scorer, as well. I wouldn't necessarily expect Duke to be as efficient on offense this coming year as they were in the past two or three seasons. However, I fully expect Brandon, Derryck, Grayson, Luke, Amile, and Matt to pick up the slack, with some bonus points from our other bigs. I'll be surprised if Duke isn't a top 20 offensive team. And I'll be mildly surprised if we're not top 10. I'm pegging Brandon, Grayson, and Derryck to be the leading scorers with Amile, Matt and Luke all scoring in double figures with enough regularity that two out of those three average just under or above 10 ppg. I wouldn't be surprised to see a distribution similar to the '07/08 season (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/150/year/2008/duke-blue-devils) when we had five guys in double figures. Obviously, pace will play a role in the actual numbers, but I just don't see this team struggling to score. We have four natural scorers in Derryck, Grayson, Brandon, and Luke plus experienced guys like Matt and Amile who are capable of increasing their scoring output, as well.

I'm not worried at all.

COYS
04-30-2015, 05:15 PM
Offensive talent has never been enough to get off K's bench. See: Andre Dawkins, Marty Pocius, Taylor King...

On the other hand, JJ got minutes (granted, on a more depleted team) right off the bat despite being a mediocre defender his freshman year. Similarly, Jabari and Jahlil also got all the minutes they could handle, as well. I think if the offensive skill of a player is really high on a team that doesn't have many other options, K will put you in. I'm in the camp that thinks Luke will get enough minutes to reach double figures more than a few times next season.

Edit - I see CDu beat me to it.

Kedsy
04-30-2015, 05:23 PM
On the other hand, JJ got minutes (granted, on a more depleted team) right off the bat despite being a mediocre defender his freshman year. Similarly, Jabari and Jahlil also got all the minutes they could handle, as well. I think if the offensive skill of a player is really high on a team that doesn't have many other options, K will put you in. I'm in the camp that thinks Luke will get enough minutes to reach double figures more than a few times next season.

We'll see. I haven't made up my mind yet how I think it will go. But the thing about Luke is, we don't really know if his offense will be better than that provided by Derryck, Grayson, Brandon, or Chase -- we don't even know for sure if he'll be better than Matt. If he's the fourth or fifth best offensive player, it won't get him minutes if his defense is poor. Even if he's the second or third best offensive player, if he's not significantly better than the options behind him, and if those options are much better defensively, it probably won't help him.

That said, we also have no idea if Luke's defense will be unsatisfactory. Other than Matt, it's hard at this point to even make a good guess the relative defensive ability of our perimeter players.

JNort
04-30-2015, 07:48 PM
1 - Ingram - 17ppg
2 - Allen - 14ppg
- Jefferson - 8ppg
- Thornton - 10 ppg
- M Jones - 8ppg
- Sean Obi - 2 ppg
- Jeter - 7 ppg
- MP3 - 5 ppg
- Kennard - 5 ppg

JNort
04-30-2015, 07:54 PM
I guess we will see - but he can handle, shoot from anywhere and hit throws at a high percentage. Unless he is a sieve on D- he will play.

Yeahin high school he could. I would be willing to bet he doesn't this coming year. If he cracked 8ppg I would be blown away. Not even mildly surprised but blown away

Every year there is someone on the roster most of the board falls in love with because of their offensive capabilities. This year it's Luke and just like every one before him he won't get the pt his first year. Look for him to have a Grayson Allen type year or maybe even lower.

Newton_14
04-30-2015, 09:16 PM
We'll see. I haven't made up my mind yet how I think it will go. But the thing about Luke is, we don't really know if his offense will be better than that provided by Derryck, Grayson, Brandon, or Chase -- we don't even know for sure if he'll be better than Matt. If he's the fourth or fifth best offensive player, it won't get him minutes if his defense is poor. Even if he's the second or third best offensive player, if he's not significantly better than the options behind him, and if those options are much better defensively, it probably won't help him.

That said, we also have no idea if Luke's defense will be unsatisfactory. Other than Matt, it's hard at this point to even make a good guess the relative defensive ability of our perimeter players.

I'm still stuck on Luke being a volume scorer from Day 1, but, like you point out, the talent of the other guys could keep Luke off the floor if for some reason he can't guard. I have no doubt that kid can score though. I really don't. If he gets rotation minutes he is going to be a double digit scorer.

As for other defenders beyond Matt on the perimeter, I am thoroughly convinced Grayson will be a high level defender, and very strong rebounder for his position. That kid attacks the glass for defensive rebounds just as "controlled maniacally" as he does when trying to score there. I went back and watched a mix tape from his Sr year in High School and my God the dude was just killing it. (I know, I know, its a mixtape, I get it).

I know CDu and others are apprehensive about Grayson being a double digit scorer, but I'm not. I personally feel Grayson is our best returning player. Sure, he will likely have some growing pains, go through the Sophomore Slump at times, etc, but I firmly believe he is going to be a double digit scorer, good to above average defender, great rebounder for his position, and one of the top players on the team. The guy has talent in droves.

With Grayson, Matt, Derryck, Brandon, and Luke, we have a very strong perimeter next season. Backup PG by committee could get interesting at times, but I feel K will work a plan for success for the time Derryck is resting. If Derryck is physically and mentally ready for it, he might approach 35mpg anyway. Would not be the first time K asked a PG to play heavy minutes, even a freshman. (Amaker, Hurley, JWill, Kyrie for the short time we had him).

If Derryck is not ready for that many minutes, then the backup PG by committee plan will have to be a lot better. All 4 of the other guys though, have enough ball handling skills to make it work I think.

I can't wait. Hurry up October already! Let the good times continue to roll!!

dukelifer
04-30-2015, 09:26 PM
Yeahin high school he could. I would be willing to bet he doesn't this coming year. If he cracked 8ppg I would be blown away. Not even mildly surprised but blown away

Every year there is someone on the roster most of the board falls in love with because of their offensive capabilities. This year it's Luke and just like every one before him he won't get the pt his first year. Look for him to have a Grayson Allen type year or maybe even lower.

The kid had 22 pts in the Nike Hoop Summit. That game tells you a lot about players. Last year Winslow had 16 - before that Parker had 22- before that Rivers had 20. The kid has something.

subzero02
04-30-2015, 09:50 PM
See, JJ Redick, cerca 2003. Sometimes the team needs a scorer, even if he isn't great defensively. Not necessarily saying that will be the case with Kennard next year, but it isn't out of the question for the staff to go with offense over defense at SG.

I agree. I think Kennard will endear himself to the Duke fan base rather quickly with his offensive skill set. Speaking of JJ cerca 2003... Does anyone have a link to the video of him dismantling NC State in the second half of the 2003 ACC tourney championship game.

Kedsy
04-30-2015, 10:49 PM
I'm still stuck on Luke being a volume scorer from Day 1, but, like you point out, the talent of the other guys could keep Luke off the floor if for some reason he can't guard.

There are 120 minutes (plus however many minutes Brandon plays at PF) to be split among 5 guys. If Derryck plays 30+ and Brandon plays 25+ on the perimeter (plus however many at PF), that leaves a maximum of 65 minutes to be split among Matt, Grayson, and Luke. Matt is a returning starter and our best perimeter defender. He should play at least 25 mpg. Which leaves a maximum of 40 minutes to be split between Grayson and Luke. If Grayson is as good as you think he is, then the likelihood is Luke doesn't see the floor enough to be a double-digit scorer. Even if he can guard.

The way I see it, the only way Luke sees 20+ minutes is if one of the others disappoints. Or I guess he could become a breakout star, and force one of the others to the bench even though they haven't disappointed, but that doesn't seem likely for a guy rated in the 20s. Although we haven't seen the final ratings yet, so we don't even know for sure where Luke will be rated; maybe he's improved enough to jump into the top 15 or even top 10. I doubt it'll happen that way, but if it does, all bets may be off. No matter what we should have a very strong perimeter.

FireOgilvie
05-01-2015, 03:29 AM
Here are my general thoughts about the new guys and next year:

1) Derryck's scoring and general PG skills are probably being overrated on the board, in general. He's a great athlete, but not a great scorer right now and struggled a lot against good HS competition. I am expecting something more like Quinn's or maybe Nolan's freshman year (best case). Even with our lack of depth, I highly doubt he averages more than maybe 7-8 points a game.

2) Ingram has ridiculous potential, but I don't think he's going to come in and make the immediate scoring impact that some of our previous one-and-done guys made (and yes, he is almost certainly a one-and-done). I could see him averaging roughly 10-12 points/game.

3) Chase Jeter - he's a good athlete, but I don't see him averaging more than maybe 5 points/game.

4) Obi - the last time I saw him was a over a year ago, but he played below the rim and needed to work on his lateral quickness; I have no idea how he looks now.

5) Kennard - he has an incredible knack for scoring. I've said this before, but he's the type of guy that comes in and makes an impact right away (similar to Scheyer). He's also more than just a good shooter; he scores on broken plays, run-outs, and just generally being able to hit almost every shot he throws up at the rim. He doesn't need to be set and he can create his own shot off the dribble. He doesn't need to have plays run for him. He's similar in his scoring abilities in many ways to Seth Curry. He's also a fantastic free throw shooter. There's no question in my mind that he'll be in the mix at the end of tight games just because of his ability to handle the ball and hit free throws at a high percentage. I fully expect him to average double digit points. From what I've seen, his defense has been quite solid; it really shouldn't be a major issue. He's a good athlete and can move his feet. IMO, he's going to get minutes because he and Grayson are the only guys we have that can really put up huge scoring numbers.

One more thing - Scheyer was 28th in RSCI. Seth Curry was way down the list, if he even made it. Look at basically the entire Wisconsin team this past year except maybe Dekker. Some guys have intangible skills and qualities that are tough for ranking/recruiting services; I think Luke fits that in a lot of ways.

dukelifer
05-01-2015, 07:02 AM
There are 120 minutes (plus however many minutes Brandon plays at PF) to be split among 5 guys. If Derryck plays 30+ and Brandon plays 25+ on the perimeter (plus however many at PF), that leaves a maximum of 65 minutes to be split among Matt, Grayson, and Luke. Matt is a returning starter and our best perimeter defender. He should play at least 25 mpg. Which leaves a maximum of 40 minutes to be split between Grayson and Luke. If Grayson is as good as you think he is, then the likelihood is Luke doesn't see the floor enough to be a double-digit scorer. Even if he can guard.

The way I see it, the only way Luke sees 20+ minutes is if one of the others disappoints. Or I guess he could become a breakout star, and force one of the others to the bench even though they haven't disappointed, but that doesn't seem likely for a guy rated in the 20s. Although we haven't seen the final ratings yet, so we don't even know for sure where Luke will be rated; maybe he's improved enough to jump into the top 15 or even top 10. I doubt it'll happen that way, but if it does, all bets may be off. No matter what we should have a very strong perimeter.
I am not sold on Thornton playing big minutes unless he can hit jumpers. A Tyus Jones-like season is very very rare. Regardless, someone has to be the backup and that could be Grayson or Luke- both playing a bit out of natural position. I agree that this is a strong perimeter and at this point anything is possible.

jv001
05-01-2015, 07:09 AM
I am not sold on Thornton playing big minutes unless he can hit jumpers. A Tyus Jones-like season is very very rare. Regardless, someone has to be the backup and that could be Grayson or Luke- both playing a bit out of natural position. I agree that this is a strong perimeter and at this point anything is possible.

If Thornton can't be an effective point guard, Duke could use Ingram as a point forward. Such was the case with Grant Hill back in the day. Lot's of questions regarding the 2015-2016 Duke Blue Devils: Obi, Jeter, Kennard, Grayson, Thornton, MPIII and to a degree, Ingram. Then there's the question of can Matt Jones become a consistent shooter. We know he can defend, but can he be a better shooter. Can Amile come up with a consistent mid-range jumper? Can't wait to see how Coach K brings it all together. GoDuke!

David Bunkley
05-01-2015, 07:47 AM
I have never been in the "Coach K will have a deeper rotation this year" camp before, so I guess it's my turn. I think Thornton starts at PG, but this team will mostly run the motion offense (similar to 2010), so we'll see Allen and Kennard handle the ball a lot, too. Ingram will play both inside and outside and he and Allen will pace the offense. Kennard will see a lot of time off of the bench, similar to Scheyer's sophomore year, and be a consistent scoring threat. The bigs are going to be a revolving door, so whoever plays well will see time. I expect Amile to lead the charge on the inside, but we will be perimeter-oriented offensively. Here is my breakdown:

Player MMG PPG
Thornton 22 7
Allen 28 15
Jones 30 8
Ingram 30 14
Amile 22 9
Kennard 20 11
Obi 18 8
Plumlee 15 4
Jeter 15 6
Vrankovic - red shirt
Robinson - red shirt
Total - 200 mpg 82 ppg

#GODUKE

Kedsy
05-01-2015, 11:53 AM
I am not sold on Thornton playing big minutes unless he can hit jumpers.

Here's a table of Duke point guards since 1983. Many of these guards had the 4th, 5th, or even 6th most shots on the team that season, implying their shot-making ability was not the primary attribute that led them to playing big minutes. Seven times (out of 33) these lead guards shot under 40% overall. Seven times they shot under 35% from three-point (four times they shot under 32%; twice they shot under 30%). Greg Paulus, as a freshman, shot 31.4% from three and 37.3% overall, and didn't play particularly strong defense. But he still started and played 32.3 mpg, because he was the only point guard on the team.

I conclude that Derryck Thornton will start and play big minutes as long as he can play high major Division I point guard. His shooting ability will play only a minor part in determining his minutes.



Year PG class mpg shots FG% 3-pt%
1983 J Dawkins FR 35.8 1st 0.500 0.352
1984 T Amaker FR 36.3 5th 0.507 n/a
1985 T Amaker SO 33.8 3rd 0.449 n/a
1986 T Amaker JR 30.2 4th 0.449 n/a
1987 T Amaker SR 35.6 2nd 0.448 0.427
1988 Q Snyder JR 28.7 4th 0.480 0.446
1989 Q Snyder SR 30.4 4th 0.414 0.286
1990 B Hurley FR 33.4 4th 0.351 0.357
1991 B Hurley SO 34.7 3rd 0.423 0.404
1992 B Hurley JR 33.6 5th 0.433 0.421
1993 B Hurley SR 35.6 2nd 0.421 0.421
1994 J Capel* FR 26.4 5th 0.458 0.421
1995 J Capel SO 29.5 2nd 0.446 0.460
1996 J Capel JR 34.9 1st 0.376 0.330
1997 S Wojo JR 31.3 6th 0.443 0.394
1998 S Wojo SR 28.2 6th 0.387 0.388
1999 W Avery SO 31.0 1st 0.483 0.411
2000 J Williams FR 34.0 1st 0.419 0.354
2001 J Williams SO 31.8 1st 0.473 0.427
2002 C Duhon SO 35.1 5th 0.410 0.340
2003 C Duhon JR 36.0 4th 0.386 0.273
2004 C Duhon SR 35.4 4th 0.448 0.302
2005 D Ewing SR 34.5 2nd 0.427 0.347
2006 G Paulus FR 32.3 4th 0.373 0.314
2007 G Paulus SO 32.4 3rd 0.456 0.450
2008 G Paulus JR 27.7 4th 0.423 0.423
2009 J Scheyer* JR 32.8 3rd 0.397 0.385
2010 J Scheyer SR 36.8 3rd 0.399 0.383
2011 K Irving** FR 27.5 n/a 0.529 0.462
2011 N Smith SR 34.0 1st 0.458 0.350
2012 S Curry* JR 30.2 2nd 0.420 0.383
2013 Q Cook SO 33.6 3rd 0.416 0.393
2014 Q Cook JR 29.8 3rd 0.434 0.371
2015 T Jones FR 33.8 4th 0.412 0.372


* - not entirely clear who was the point guard on these teams
** - only played 11 games due to injury


One more thing - Scheyer was 28th in RSCI. Seth Curry was way down the list, if he even made it. Look at basically the entire Wisconsin team this past year except maybe Dekker. Some guys have intangible skills and qualities that are tough for ranking/recruiting services; I think Luke fits that in a lot of ways.

A lot of people are bringing up Jon Scheyer because he had a relatively low RSCI rating and he started and played good minutes as a freshman. But to understand why Jon Scheyer played as much as he did as a freshman, you have to look at the Duke 2006-07 roster:

D Nelson (JR) -- sometimes played perimeter; sometimes played as a very short PF
J McRoberts (SO) -- interior player
G Paulus (SO) -- perimeter player
D McClure (redshirt-SO) -- interior player with an RSCI rank of #71 two years before
J Boykin (SO) -- interior player with an RSCI rank of #60 who transferred out in 2006-07
M Pocius (SO) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #53 the year before
G Henderson (FR) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #10; troubled by asthma for much of the season
L Thomas (FR) -- interior player
B Zoubek (FR) -- interior player
J Scheyer (FR) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #28

Looking at that roster, you would have predicted Scheyer to be the 4th perimeter option, maybe the 3rd (when Nelson played inside). He leapfrogged Henderson, who had conditioning/asthma issues, but otherwise his place in the rotation was pretty much exactly as expected.

Luke Kennard doesn't have that advantage. If his final RSCI rank ends up in the 20s, we would expect him to be the 5th perimeter option, behind Derryck, Matt, Grayson, and Brandon. He clearly isn't leapfrogging Brandon in the rotation. Unless he comes to school with high major PG skills (very unlikely), he isn't beating out Derryck. That leaves Matt, a returning starter and our best defensive player, or Grayson, who had a similar RSCI rank, is a year more experienced, and pretty much does the same things Luke is reputed to do. There simply doesn't appear to be a Scheyer-like path to minutes for Luke.

roywhite
05-01-2015, 12:21 PM
Luke Kennard doesn't have that advantage. If his final RSCI rank ends up in the 20s, we would expect him to be the 5th perimeter option, behind Derryck, Matt, Grayson, and Brandon. He clearly isn't leapfrogging Brandon in the rotation. Unless he comes to school with high major PG skills (very unlikely), he isn't beating out Derryck. That leaves Matt, a returning starter and our best defensive player, or Grayson, who had a similar RSCI rank, is a year more experienced, and pretty much does the same things Luke is reputed to do. There simply doesn't appear to be a Scheyer-like path to minutes for Luke.

Poor Luke; he's doomed. Shall we tell him? Start a transfer thread?

I can see that you've put a lot of work into this analysis, but I've tried to watch him in action on tape or telecast as often as possible and IMO he's an excellent prospect who will play a lot in 2015-16.

I guess we'll see.

Kedsy
05-01-2015, 12:47 PM
Poor Luke; he's doomed. Shall we tell him? Start a transfer thread?

Not my point at all.

Before this past season, some people who'd seen Grayson play in high school or followed him in the high school all-star games thought Grayson would play a lot. And due to circumstances, he did end up playing in the Final Four and showing he was a good player who probably would have performed well all season, given the chance. But he didn't play all season, because he had too many people ahead of him. Once Rasheed and Semi were gone, Grayson was still the 8th guy in the rotation. In the four NCAA tournament games leading up to the Final Four, he only played 8 mpg.

Luke might have the same problem. Doesn't mean he's a bad player. Doesn't mean if he got a chance he wouldn't excel. Definitely doesn't mean he's "doomed," and certainly doesn't mean he should transfer. It means he has a lot of players ahead of him in his quest for playing time. Some guys are able to buck that and play a lot anyway. But if you do bother to spend some time on the analysis, you'll find it doesn't happen very often. Hardly ever, actually. Much more frequently, a really good player (e.g., Ryan Kelly in 2009-10; Michael Gbinije in 2011-12; Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye in 2013-14; and this without even getting into the likes of Olek Czyz, Marty Pocius, or Alex Murphy) don't play so much as freshmen because Duke has a very deep roster and there's a finite number of minutes.

FireOgilvie
05-01-2015, 01:23 PM
Not my point at all.

Before this past season, some people who'd seen Grayson play in high school or followed him in the high school all-star games thought Grayson would play a lot. And due to circumstances, he did end up playing in the Final Four and showing he was a good player who probably would have performed well all season, given the chance. But he didn't play all season, because he had too many people ahead of him. Once Rasheed and Semi were gone, Grayson was still the 8th guy in the rotation. In the four NCAA tournament games leading up to the Final Four, he only played 8 mpg.

Luke might have the same problem. Doesn't mean he's a bad player. Doesn't mean if he got a chance he wouldn't excel. Definitely doesn't mean he's "doomed," and certainly doesn't mean he should transfer. It means he has a lot of players ahead of him in his quest for playing time. Some guys are able to buck that and play a lot anyway. But if you do bother to spend some time on the analysis, you'll find it doesn't happen very often. Hardly ever, actually. Much more frequently, a really good player (e.g., Ryan Kelly in 2009-10; Michael Gbinije in 2011-12; Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye in 2013-14; and this without even getting into the likes of Olek Czyz, Marty Pocius, or Alex Murphy) don't play so much as freshmen because Duke has a very deep roster and there's a finite number of minutes.

I have research that shows that the USA's leading scorer at the Nike Hoop Summit all end up starting for their college programs as freshmen. Something will have to give.

None of the other guys you mentioned were as ready to play their freshman year as Luke is, IMO. Even if he doesn't start, he's not going to be buried on the bench.

Also, 4 out of the last 5 leading scorers at the Hoop Summit were Duke players. Nice.

dukelifer
05-01-2015, 01:26 PM
I have research that shows that the USA's leading scorer at the Nike Hoop Summit all end up starting for their college programs as freshmen. Something will have to give.

None of the other guys you mentioned were as ready to play their freshman year as Luke is, IMO. Even if he doesn't start, he's not going to be buried on the bench.

Also, 4 out of the last 5 leading scorers at the Hoop Summit were Duke players. Nice.

Yes- my same point a few posts down. Something will have to give here.

dukelifer
05-01-2015, 01:37 PM
Here's a table of Duke point guards since 1983. Many of these guards had the 4th, 5th, or even 6th most shots on the team that season, implying their shot-making ability was not the primary attribute that led them to playing big minutes. Seven times (out of 33) these lead guards shot under 40% overall. Seven times they shot under 35% from three-point (four times they shot under 32%; twice they shot under 30%). Greg Paulus, as a freshman, shot 31.4% from three and 37.3% overall, and didn't play particularly strong defense. But he still started and played 32.3 mpg, because he was the only point guard on the team.

I conclude that Derryck Thornton will start and play big minutes as long as he can play high major Division I point guard. His shooting ability will play only a minor part in determining his minutes.



Year PG class mpg shots FG% 3-pt%
1983 J Dawkins FR 35.8 1st 0.500 0.352
1984 T Amaker FR 36.3 5th 0.507 n/a
1985 T Amaker SO 33.8 3rd 0.449 n/a
1986 T Amaker JR 30.2 4th 0.449 n/a
1987 T Amaker SR 35.6 2nd 0.448 0.427
1988 Q Snyder JR 28.7 4th 0.480 0.446
1989 Q Snyder SR 30.4 4th 0.414 0.286
1990 B Hurley FR 33.4 4th 0.351 0.357
1991 B Hurley SO 34.7 3rd 0.423 0.404
1992 B Hurley JR 33.6 5th 0.433 0.421
1993 B Hurley SR 35.6 2nd 0.421 0.421
1994 J Capel* FR 26.4 5th 0.458 0.421
1995 J Capel SO 29.5 2nd 0.446 0.460
1996 J Capel JR 34.9 1st 0.376 0.330
1997 S Wojo JR 31.3 6th 0.443 0.394
1998 S Wojo SR 28.2 6th 0.387 0.388
1999 W Avery SO 31.0 1st 0.483 0.411
2000 J Williams FR 34.0 1st 0.419 0.354
2001 J Williams SO 31.8 1st 0.473 0.427
2002 C Duhon SO 35.1 5th 0.410 0.340
2003 C Duhon JR 36.0 4th 0.386 0.273
2004 C Duhon SR 35.4 4th 0.448 0.302
2005 D Ewing SR 34.5 2nd 0.427 0.347
2006 G Paulus FR 32.3 4th 0.373 0.314
2007 G Paulus SO 32.4 3rd 0.456 0.450
2008 G Paulus JR 27.7 4th 0.423 0.423
2009 J Scheyer* JR 32.8 3rd 0.397 0.385
2010 J Scheyer SR 36.8 3rd 0.399 0.383
2011 K Irving** FR 27.5 n/a 0.529 0.462
2011 N Smith SR 34.0 1st 0.458 0.350
2012 S Curry* JR 30.2 2nd 0.420 0.383
2013 Q Cook SO 33.6 3rd 0.416 0.393
2014 Q Cook JR 29.8 3rd 0.434 0.371
2015 T Jones FR 33.8 4th 0.412 0.372


* - not entirely clear who was the point guard on these teams
** - only played 11 games due to injury



A lot of people are bringing up Jon Scheyer because he had a relatively low RSCI rating and he started and played good minutes as a freshman. But to understand why Jon Scheyer played as much as he did as a freshman, you have to look at the Duke 2006-07 roster:

D Nelson (JR) -- sometimes played perimeter; sometimes played as a very short PF
J McRoberts (SO) -- interior player
G Paulus (SO) -- perimeter player
D McClure (redshirt-SO) -- interior player with an RSCI rank of #71 two years before
J Boykin (SO) -- interior player with an RSCI rank of #60 who transferred out in 2006-07
M Pocius (SO) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #53 the year before
G Henderson (FR) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #10; troubled by asthma for much of the season
L Thomas (FR) -- interior player
B Zoubek (FR) -- interior player
J Scheyer (FR) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #28

Looking at that roster, you would have predicted Scheyer to be the 4th perimeter option, maybe the 3rd (when Nelson played inside). He leapfrogged Henderson, who had conditioning/asthma issues, but otherwise his place in the rotation was pretty much exactly as expected.

Luke Kennard doesn't have that advantage. If his final RSCI rank ends up in the 20s, we would expect him to be the 5th perimeter option, behind Derryck, Matt, Grayson, and Brandon. He clearly isn't leapfrogging Brandon in the rotation. Unless he comes to school with high major PG skills (very unlikely), he isn't beating out Derryck. That leaves Matt, a returning starter and our best defensive player, or Grayson, who had a similar RSCI rank, is a year more experienced, and pretty much does the same things Luke is reputed to do. There simply doesn't appear to be a Scheyer-like path to minutes for Luke.

Those who came in as Freshman to play point are

J Dawkins
T Amaker
B Hurley
Capel although Grant was the man that year
J Williams
G Paulus
K Irving
T Jones

Other than Capel who I contend was not needed at point and Paulus- the rest of those guys are pretty special players. Maybe Thornton will be at that level and if so, Duke is in great shape. Paulus is really the outlier in this group of Frosh asked to play point from day 1. Of Course, Paulus played with some pretty talented seniors in Redick and Williams. This next year - Thornton will not have that luxury.

tbyers11
05-01-2015, 01:56 PM
Luke might have the same problem. Doesn't mean he's a bad player. Doesn't mean if he got a chance he wouldn't excel. Definitely doesn't mean he's "doomed," and certainly doesn't mean he should transfer. It means he has a lot of players ahead of him in his quest for playing time. Some guys are able to buck that and play a lot anyway. But if you do bother to spend some time on the analysis, you'll find it doesn't happen very often. Hardly ever, actually. Much more frequently, a really good player (e.g., Ryan Kelly in 2009-10; Michael Gbinije in 2011-12; Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye in 2013-14; and this without even getting into the likes of Olek Czyz, Marty Pocius, or Alex Murphy) don't play so much as freshmen because Duke has a very deep roster and there's a finite number of minutes.


I have research that shows that the USA's leading scorer at the Nike Hoop Summit all end up starting for their college programs as freshmen. Something will have to give.

None of the other guys you mentioned were as ready to play their freshman year as Luke is, IMO. Even if he doesn't start, he's not going to be buried on the bench.

Also, 4 out of the last 5 leading scorers at the Hoop Summit were Duke players. Nice.

Here is why I think Luke will get significant playing time and both arguments above might be correct.

First, as Fire Ogilvie said he is really good player and I think will be able to contribute meaningfully from the start. I agree with Kedsy that he might be 5th in the pecking order behind Derryck, Matt, Grayson, and Brandon and typically K only plays 4 perimeter guys meaningful minutes. However, I'm not sure I consider Brandon Ingram truly a perimeter guy in the sense that only 2 of Derryck, Matt, Grayson and Luke will be on the floor with him most of the time. I think Brandon's length and positional flexibility let him play a lot of "PF" against all but the biggest teams. I think 3 of those 4 will be in the lineup with Brandon a lot.

K has typically shown to like "small ball" lineups. When you don't break the 9 guys likely to get big minutes (I think both Robinson and Vrankovic either redshirt or are limited to mop-up minutes) into 5 perimeter guys (DT, MJ, GA, BI, LK) and 4 interior guys (AJ, MP3, CJ and SO) but just consider them as 9 guys I think Luke could get more minutes than all of the interior guys except for Amile. I honestly don't know how the minutes will shake out between MP3, Jeter and Obi, but when the rotation shortens I expect 2 of those 3 are likely to be the 8th and 9th men that get their minutes squeezed and not Luke.

The Gordog
05-01-2015, 01:57 PM
There are 120 minutes (plus however many minutes Brandon plays at PF) to be split among 5 guys. If Derryck plays 30+ and Brandon plays 25+ on the perimeter (plus however many at PF), that leaves a maximum of 65 minutes to be split among Matt, Grayson, and Luke. Matt is a returning starter and our best perimeter defender. He should play at least 25 mpg. Which leaves a maximum of 40 minutes to be split between Grayson and Luke. If Grayson is as good as you think he is, then the likelihood is Luke doesn't see the floor enough to be a double-digit scorer. Even if he can guard.

The way I see it, the only way Luke sees 20+ minutes is if one of the others disappoints. Or I guess he could become a breakout star, and force one of the others to the bench even though they haven't disappointed, but that doesn't seem likely for a guy rated in the 20s. Although we haven't seen the final ratings yet, so we don't even know for sure where Luke will be rated; maybe he's improved enough to jump into the top 15 or even top 10. I doubt it'll happen that way, but if it does, all bets may be off. No matter what we should have a very strong perimeter.

I think Brandon will play 15 MPG at the 4 and 15 at the 3.
Let's say Derryck plays 28 MPG and Luke gets the other 12 at PG, that leaves 65 minutes for Matt, Grayson and Luke, but Luke already has 12 to start with. Give him 10 more at SG for 22 and that leaves 55 for Matt and Grayson or 27.5 each.

In the frontcourt I just don't see the skinny freshman Jeter getting a lot of burn vs. the veteran Amile, the firey athletic Lieut. Plumlee, or the rebound machine Obi-wan. If he can hit free throws better than MP3/Amile/Obi (none of whom are good from the stripe) he will get in for late game siuations, though.

Brandon: 30
Derryck: 28
Grayson: 27.5
Matt: 27.5
Luke: 22
Amile: 25
MP3: 18
Sean: 17
Chase: 5

jv001
05-01-2015, 02:15 PM
I have research that shows that the USA's leading scorer at the Nike Hoop Summit all end up starting for their college programs as freshmen. Something will have to give.

None of the other guys you mentioned were as ready to play their freshman year as Luke is, IMO. Even if he doesn't start, he's not going to be buried on the bench.

Also, 4 out of the last 5 leading scorers at the Hoop Summit were Duke players. Nice.

Something to consider. If Ingram, Matt, Grayson, Luke and Thornton all play above average defense, then it come down to who can best put the ball in the basket. From what I've read regarding Thornton, he is a good defender. Matter of fact he seems to be a better defender than he is a perimeter shooter. But if he can play defense and distribute the ball, he'll get a lot of playing time. With Ingram at SF and some PF he'll get big minutes. That leaves Matt, Grayson and Luke to share minutes at PG, SG and SF. I agree with those posters that say Ingram ends up playing some PF by the end of the season. The center position has some big questions. Can MPIII improve on offense to go with his good defense. A jump hook like his two brothers would surely help. Amile has shown he can play proficient minutes at the center position as well. Then we have Sean Obi, who was a good enough player at Rice to average close to a double-double. What does that leave for Jeter. Is he big and strong enough to be a factor in his first year playing against good college centers. I think Coach K has his work cut out for him this season, but we all know he's up to the task. If it wasn't golf season, I'd wish Duke basketball was next week. However that would mean cold weather was here and I've just thawed out from last winter. GoDuke!

COYS
05-01-2015, 05:00 PM
A lot of people are bringing up Jon Scheyer because he had a relatively low RSCI rating and he started and played good minutes as a freshman. But to understand why Jon Scheyer played as much as he did as a freshman, you have to look at the Duke 2006-07 roster:

D Nelson (JR) -- sometimes played perimeter; sometimes played as a very short PF
J McRoberts (SO) -- interior player
G Paulus (SO) -- perimeter player
D McClure (redshirt-SO) -- interior player with an RSCI rank of #71 two years before
J Boykin (SO) -- interior player with an RSCI rank of #60 who transferred out in 2006-07
M Pocius (SO) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #53 the year before
G Henderson (FR) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #10; troubled by asthma for much of the season
L Thomas (FR) -- interior player
B Zoubek (FR) -- interior player
J Scheyer (FR) -- perimeter player with an RSCI rank of #28

Looking at that roster, you would have predicted Scheyer to be the 4th perimeter option, maybe the 3rd (when Nelson played inside). He leapfrogged Henderson, who had conditioning/asthma issues, but otherwise his place in the rotation was pretty much exactly as expected.

Luke Kennard doesn't have that advantage. If his final RSCI rank ends up in the 20s, we would expect him to be the 5th perimeter option, behind Derryck, Matt, Grayson, and Brandon. He clearly isn't leapfrogging Brandon in the rotation. Unless he comes to school with high major PG skills (very unlikely), he isn't beating out Derryck. That leaves Matt, a returning starter and our best defensive player, or Grayson, who had a similar RSCI rank, is a year more experienced, and pretty much does the same things Luke is reputed to do. There simply doesn't appear to be a Scheyer-like path to minutes for Luke.

I would add to this that Scheyer's high school RSCI ranking suffered mightily from Rival Hoops inexplicable decision to rank him as the 78th best recruit. Otherwise, he came in as the 13th, 20th, or 21st best recruit in the country by the other services. If Rivals had ranked him closer to where he almost certainly deserved to be ranked (at around 20), his RSCI would have probably been right at #20 or maybe even the high teens. This would have made Jon's contributions to the 2007 team even less of an outlier . . . which goes against my guess that Luke will see significant minutes next season.

That being said, Jon DID leapfrog Gerald. I know there was something going on with G's conditioning that was never fully explained that year, but part of why Jon played more was because his skill set (steady handle and scoring) were badly needed on the 2007 team. Luke will likely end up with a similar RSCI rank to what Jon would have had if Rivals hadn't had such an extreme rank for Jon. Given that Coach K called Luke and told him to practice his point skills after Tyus declared, I am willing to bet that Luke, in a fashion similar to Jon, will be looked at as the number 2 point guard when Derryck isn't on the floor. Also, in end of game situations I would be completely surprised if the staff doesn't use a small lineup with Brandon at the 4. Finally, I'm in the camp that thinks that Brandon will at least see SOME time at the 4 during the course of the game. All three of these factors lead me to believe that Luke will play. His path to playing time isn't as clear as Jon's was, however, these three factors (the need for a second ball handler, the loss of a large portion of our scoring from the previous year, and the fact that most of our best players are likely to be perimeter guys leading us to play small lineups for parts of every game) are reason enough for me to guess that Luke will fall somewhere between Jon's freshman season and Grayson's.

As an example, in the 2007-08 season, Duke's interior starters were Kyle and Lance. However, DeMarcus (in what I think might be similar to the role that Brandon will play) spend a decent amount of time at the 4, which freed up almost 15 minutes per game for a freshman Nolan (RSCI #18, which is probably similar to where Luke will end up), even though Nolan would have been expected to be the 5th perimeter option behind Greg, DeMarcus, Gerald, and Jon. If neither Obi nor Marshall steps up to claim significantly more minutes than Lance (18.5 mpg) and Brian (10.5 when healthy), I wouldn't be surprised to see Luke's mpg look a lot like Nolan during his freshman year.

Kedsy
05-01-2015, 06:16 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see Luke's mpg look a lot like Nolan during his freshman year.

This makes sense to me.

My earlier posts were NOT meant to imply Luke won't get any minutes -- to the contrary, I think he'll probably get between 10 and 15 mpg (and I'm waiting to see his final RSCI rank before guessing at which end of that continuum I think he'll fall). What I was trying to say is (a) those who think he'll play as much as Jon Scheyer did in 2007 (33.7 mpg) are very likely going to be disappointed; and (b) those who think he'll be a double-digit scorer will probably be disappointed too, if he only plays 10 to 15 minutes per game.

Those who are trying to plug Luke in for 20+ minutes by limiting Brandon to 30 mpg and Derryck to 25 (or 28 or whatever) are also (in my opinion) not being particularly realistic. If Brandon gets 33 and Derryck gets 30 (both more likely assumptions, IMO), then Luke's back down to 12 to 15 mpg again, even accepting all the other assumptions made by those posters.

My point has been that (absent injury) the only way Luke gets big minutes is if Derryck is not ready to play PG at a high major level, or if Grayson completely flops. And while both those things are certainly possible, most of the people predicting 20+ for Luke are picking 25+ for all the other perimeter players too. But I'll now admit to a third possibility, because I think tbyers11 has a good point -- it's also possible that Brandon plays primarily PF and two of our four bigs (Amile/Sean/Marshall/Chase) get squeezed out of the rotation. I don't think that's very likely, but it's certainly possible, and if it happens, then Luke might play 20+ minutes.

COYS
05-01-2015, 06:27 PM
This makes sense to me.

My earlier posts were NOT meant to imply Luke won't get any minutes -- to the contrary, I think he'll probably get between 10 and 15 mpg (and I'm waiting to see his final RSCI rank before guessing at which end of that continuum I think he'll fall). What I was trying to say is (a) those who think he'll play as much as Jon Scheyer did in 2007 (33.7 mpg) are very likely going to be disappointed; and (b) those who think he'll be a double-digit scorer will probably be disappointed too, if he only plays 10 to 15 minutes per game.

Those who are trying to plug Luke in for 20+ minutes by limiting Brandon to 30 mpg and Derryck to 25 (or 28 or whatever) are also (in my opinion) not being particularly realistic. If Brandon gets 33 and Derryck gets 30 (both more likely assumptions, IMO), then Luke's back down to 12 to 15 mpg again, even accepting all the other assumptions made by those posters.

My point has been that (absent injury) the only way Luke gets big minutes is if Derryck is not ready to play PG at a high major level, or if Grayson completely flops. And while both those things are certainly possible, most of the people predicting 20+ for Luke are picking 25+ for all the other perimeter players too. But I'll now admit to a third possibility, because I think tbyers11 has a good point -- it's also possible that Brandon plays primarily PF and two of our four bigs (Amile/Sean/Marshall/Chase) get squeezed out of the rotation. I don't think that's very likely, but it's certainly possible, and if it happens, then Luke might play 20+ minutes.

Ah yes. I see. It seems you and I are in agreement. I will also add that I will be surprised if Brandon, Grayson, Derryck, and Matt are all so poor offensively that we need Luke to be a big time scorer. I do think Luke's skill set is likely to be a nice complement to the four other perimeter. 10-15 minutes seems just about right assuming everyone else progresses as expected. I'm also with you that if Obi or Chase ends up demanding big minutes, Luke is likely the the guy who will see his minutes reduced first. I think ultimately Luke's playing time will be determined by whether or not Brandon sees time at PF and whether or not the staff sees Luke's contributions from the perimeter to be more important than Obi's/Chase's contributions from the post. Given Coach K's preference to play his best players the most minutes he can, I agree with you and doubt that Luke will split perimeter minutes almost evenly with our other perimeter options.

FireOgilvie
05-01-2015, 07:08 PM
This makes sense to me.

My earlier posts were NOT meant to imply Luke won't get any minutes -- to the contrary, I think he'll probably get between 10 and 15 mpg (and I'm waiting to see his final RSCI rank before guessing at which end of that continuum I think he'll fall). What I was trying to say is (a) those who think he'll play as much as Jon Scheyer did in 2007 (33.7 mpg) are very likely going to be disappointed; and (b) those who think he'll be a double-digit scorer will probably be disappointed too, if he only plays 10 to 15 minutes per game.

Those who are trying to plug Luke in for 20+ minutes by limiting Brandon to 30 mpg and Derryck to 25 (or 28 or whatever) are also (in my opinion) not being particularly realistic. If Brandon gets 33 and Derryck gets 30 (both more likely assumptions, IMO), then Luke's back down to 12 to 15 mpg again, even accepting all the other assumptions made by those posters.

My point has been that (absent injury) the only way Luke gets big minutes is if Derryck is not ready to play PG at a high major level, or if Grayson completely flops. And while both those things are certainly possible, most of the people predicting 20+ for Luke are picking 25+ for all the other perimeter players too. But I'll now admit to a third possibility, because I think tbyers11 has a good point -- it's also possible that Brandon plays primarily PF and two of our four bigs (Amile/Sean/Marshall/Chase) get squeezed out of the rotation. I don't think that's very likely, but it's certainly possible, and if it happens, then Luke might play 20+ minutes.

Why is that unrealistic? Justise averaged 29 min/game last year. Amile and Matt averaged 21 min/game while starting at various points.

If you expect Derryck to come in and smoothly run a top 15 team, you're going to be very frustrated. He's nowhere near a finished product, IMO. There was a reason people were talking about the redshirting rumor. Here are his statistics from the Dick's High School Nationals (sorry for the formatting crunch):

Date Result Opponent Min Pts OReb DReb Reb Ast Stl Blk TO PF
04/02 W 63-50 Blanche Ely 23 10 1 1 2 2 2 0 7 5
04/03 L 53-57 Montverde 34 9 0 1 1 3 2 0 6 4

Derryck averaged 9.5 pts, 2.5 assists, 6.5 TOs, and 4.5 PFs.

Here are Derryck's teammate Allonzo Trier's numbers from those 2 games:

Date Result Opponent Min Pts OReb DReb Reb Ast Stl Blk TO PF
04/02 W 63-50 Blanche Ely 28 18 2 1 3 0 1 0 4 4
04/03 L 53-57 Montverde 36 27 1 7 8 0 3 0 4 1

Trier averaged 22.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 0 assists (not a surprise if you've seen him play), and 4 TOs.

Trier had 11 points in 23 minutes at the Hoop Summit. Luke had 22 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 0 TOs in 22 minutes, and that was with only two 3-pointers. Brandon Ingram had 12 points, 3 reb in 26 min.

It seems like you expect K to play Derryck 30 min/game just because we don't have another natural PG. I'm guessing that doesn't happen, and don't think that's too unrealistic.

ElSid
05-01-2015, 08:40 PM
4) Obi - the last time I saw him was a over a year ago, but he played below the rim and needed to work on his lateral quickness; I have no idea how he looks now.

He looks like a million bucks, on the bench at least. Almost a shame we won't get to discuss Obi's blazer / bowtie game next year.

ElSid
05-01-2015, 08:43 PM
I think it was Henderson, but I think Grayson's talents might make him an ideal 6th man next year. He "needs the ball" when he's in the game. Sheed did too. Both were potent guys off the bench. For graySON to be an effective starter, he has to become more of a varied player. Much of last season, he got the ball and it was an individual show.

Dukehky
05-01-2015, 09:08 PM
I think it was Henderson, but I think Grayson's talents might make him an ideal 6th man next year. He "needs the ball" when he's in the game. Sheed did too. Both were potent guys off the bench. For graySON to be an effective starter, he has to become more of a varied player. Much of last season, he got the ball and it was an individual show.

Could not disagree more. He will be one of our best defenders and is a shooter and slasher, who I assume will improve his passing (wouldn't take much). How is that not a starter? Put your five best players on the court to start. It's a 40 minute game and they play 40 games at most. They don't get tired, play the best ones.

sagegrouse
05-01-2015, 09:23 PM
I think it was Henderson, but I think Grayson's talents might make him an ideal 6th man next year. He "needs the ball" when he's in the game. Sheed did too. Both were potent guys off the bench. For graySON to be an effective starter, he has to become more of a varied player. Much of last season, he got the ball and it was an individual show.


Could not disagree more. He will be one of our best defenders and is a shooter and slasher, who I assume will improve his passing (wouldn't take much). How is that not a starter? Put your five best players on the court to start. It's a 40 minute game and they play 40 games at most. They don't get tired, play the best ones.

K invented the "Own Shining Moment" award and gave it to Grayson for his Final-Four play -- and it was a defensive highlight at that. I believe strongly that K has already penciled him into the starting line-up and expects him to be a star.

Kedsy
05-01-2015, 09:49 PM
Why is that unrealistic? Justise averaged 29 min/game last year. Amile and Matt averaged 21 min/game while starting at various points.

It's unrealistic because Justise, Amile, and Matt played the 4th, 5th, and 6th most minutes on the team this season. People are penciling Brandon and Derryck in at similar minutes as the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd most minutes, and sorry but it's very unlikely to come out that way.


It seems like you expect K to play Derryck 30 min/game just because we don't have another natural PG. I'm guessing that doesn't happen, and don't think that's too unrealistic.

Yes, that is what I'm expecting. Just like Greg Paulus did in 2006, even though his defense and shooting weren't quite ready for the big time.

But, to be more clear, I expect Derryck either to play 30 mpg (if he's ready) or to play 10 to 15 mpg (if he's not ready). I don't think there's much chance of him playing 20 to 25 mpg, because if he's capable of playing that many minutes at PG then history suggests Coach K will use him for 30+.

Also, if he's as unready as you believe, I'd wonder why Coach K put on such a full court press to get him. I don't think it was for 2017 or 2018. So, while it's certainly very possible you're right that Derryck won't be able to "smoothly run a top 15 team," I have to believe that's what Coach K thinks he can do. Otherwise he would have been all in on Ennis and told Derryck he'd love to have him but no pressure.

FireOgilvie
05-01-2015, 10:48 PM
It's unrealistic because Justise, Amile, and Matt played the 4th, 5th, and 6th most minutes on the team this season. People are penciling Brandon and Derryck in at similar minutes as the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd most minutes, and sorry but it's very unlikely to come out that way.



Yes, that is what I'm expecting. Just like Greg Paulus did in 2006, even though his defense and shooting weren't quite ready for the big time.

But, to be more clear, I expect Derryck either to play 30 mpg (if he's ready) or to play 10 to 15 mpg (if he's not ready). I don't think there's much chance of him playing 20 to 25 mpg, because if he's capable of playing that many minutes at PG then history suggests Coach K will use him for 30+.

Also, if he's as unready as you believe, I'd wonder why Coach K put on such a full court press to get him. I don't think it was for 2017 or 2018. So, while it's certainly very possible you're right that Derryck won't be able to "smoothly run a top 15 team," I have to believe that's what Coach K thinks he can do. Otherwise he would have been all in on Ennis and told Derryck he'd love to have him but no pressure.

Brandon Ingram essentially said in a couple interviews that he wasn't going to come to Duke unless we landed a PG. Thornton was a much better option than the other guys for the long-term, obviously. Otherwise, I think we would have waited on him for next year. Thornton can come in and get better before we make a legitimate championship push in 2 seasons (if we land some of those 2016 guys). I don't see us winning anything this year (although you never know).

Thornton has great potential, but it's a stretch to look at his high school performances to this point and expect him to be a guy that gets 30 minutes/game when guys like Grayson and Luke could fill in at PG. As you said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him at something like ~10-15 min at the end of the year. I previously said he'd probably have a season like Quinn or Nolan's first one. They turned out to be great players for us, but they both struggled a lot at the beginning. You don't often see freshmen come on to a team and perform immediately like Tyus. Also, Paulus came in much better prepared and was more highly touted than Thornton and he still struggled a lot. He averaged 6 pts in 32 min. He played with JJ and Shelden and only averaged 5 assists (and 3 TOs), although the assists was a career high. Unlike this upcoming season, Paulus' team was definitely not deep; we only played 7 guys in double-digit minutes that year. But he was also ranked high coming out of HS because of his performance, not his athletic potential. That's the whole issue here with Thornton.

Also, look back at years like 2008-09 and 07-08 when we didn't have obvious separation between our backup guys. In 08-09, we had 9 guys between ~12 and 33 min. I could see that happening again.

Edit: The timing of Thornton's Duke announcement (the morning of our second in-home visit with Ingram) was not a coincidence, IMO.

OldPhiKap
05-01-2015, 10:57 PM
K invented the "Own Shining Moment" award and gave it to Grayson for his Final-Four play -- and it was a defensive highlight at that. I believe strongly that K has already penciled him into the starting line-up and expects him to be a star.

Absolutely agree with this. GA is a major part of next year until someone beats him out of it. And good luck with that.

Kedsy
05-02-2015, 12:56 AM
Brandon Ingram essentially said in a couple interviews that he wasn't going to come to Duke unless we landed a PG.

I can't imagine K brought in Derryck just so Brandon would say yes. I'm sure that was a decent perk, but he must think Derryck can bring something to the team this season.

Also, we punted Ennis to go after Derryck. Why would we do that if Coach K didn't think he'd be a big contributor in 2015-16?



Thornton can come in and get better before we make a legitimate championship push in 2 seasons (if we land some of those 2016 guys). I don't see us winning anything this year (although you never know).

Some people have expressed the opinion that having Derryck on the team decreases the chance of getting Dennis Smith, Jr., who in turn supposedly is interested in a package deal with Tatum and Giles. If that's true, then I can't imagine K would jeopardize that for a year of Brandon Ingram, unless Coach K thought we could be very good in 2015-16.

But even putting that aside, Duke should be a top 10 team this coming season, with a very strong defense and good offensive potential. I'm not nearly as bearish on the team as you seem to be.



Also, Paulus came in much better prepared and was more highly touted than Thornton and he still struggled a lot.

Greg Paulus was rated #13 by the RSCI, but in four of the five components that made up the RSCI that year, he was rated between 18 and 20. We know Derryck is rated #17 by ESPN this season. It remains to be seen how his final RSCI rank will compare to Greg's. For all we know, Derryck could be the more highly touted one.



In 08-09, we had 9 guys between ~12 and 33 min. I could see that happening again.

That's misleading. In 2009, when one guy dropped in to the rotation, another dropped out. In games after January 1, 2009 that were decided by less than 20 points, we only had 1 game in which more than 8 guys played 10+ minutes. And only 4 games in which exactly 8 guys played 10+ minutes. In contrast, we had 15 games in which 7 or fewer players played 10+ minutes. In other words, the 2008-09 season was the same 7-man rotation as usual, it just wasn't the same seven guys for the whole season, leading it to appear as if we went deeper if you only look at the season stats.

gumbomoop
05-02-2015, 02:51 AM
This Points thread seems to have passed the Minutes thread as the go-to conversation for our way-early thinking about starters, rotation, mpg, ppg for 2015-16.

The civility of the discussion is refreshing [playing with house money relieves a lot of stress], the analysis and reasoning in support of quite different predictions impressive, and acknowledgements of uncertainties sensible.

Way-early uncertainties that must affect our predictions include [hardly an exhaustive list but.....]:

- Can/will Brandon log 10-15 mpg at stretch 4?
- Does Grayson's shining moment translate into go-to dependability on O and relentlessness on D, or just maniacal brilliance to compensate for maddening inconsistency?
- Will Derryck exhibit smart floor vision, be a pass-first PG, have a good ATO, and gain the confidence of his teammates?
- How good is Luke, as solid backup PG, scorer against ACC-level competition?
- Which of Marshall, Sean, Chase will push ahead of the other 2, and why?
- Will K play some small-ball most games, and not just during stall-ball?
- Will K revert to a 7-man rotation, or will "8 is Enough" have persuaded him that "9 Might Work"?

We have plenty of talent, plenty. Which usually means O-talent. Although there's probably a consensus on EK that Brandon and Grayson are the most likely breakout PPG leaders, I suspect there's less feeling of certainty about these two early O-favorites, because Grayson just didn't play much and because Brandon skyrocketed toward the top of the guru-rankings only very recently. There may be a sense -- even a vague consensus -- that actually we have 1 likely star [combo wing 3/stretch 4 Ingram], supported, and even intermittently surpassed, by 4 very talented perimeter players. Plus, 4 roughly equal interior players; equal in the sense that each likely brings valuable strengths, but none is clearly a superior overall talent (D + O) to the other 3.

I expect something like a leveling of contribution among an 8-8.5-man rotation by ACC. This past season Duke had 4 stars and a solid supporting cast. The oft-observed truism that "K plays his best players a lot" was certainly the case in 2014-15. But Rasheed's dismissal had an uptick-impact not just on Matt's but also on Tyus's and Quinn's mpg. This season, we cannot expect Derryck to match Tyus's 34 mpg. Nor any of Marshall, Sean, or Chase to come anywhere near Jahlil's 30 mpg. Nor any of our wing 2s/small wing 3s to come anywhere near Quinn's 36. And although Brandon might well equal or even exceed Justise's 29, that would be precisely, and only, because he is likely to log some small-ball minutes at the stretch 4.

In the summer of 2014, it surely seemed highly improbable that Duke would have 2 lottery picks by May 2015. Our second possible 2015 first-rounder was Rasheed. This past season turned out shockingly well, because Jahlil was as good as advertised, because Tyus and Justise were better than advertised, because Quinn turned himself around in remarkable ways, and because the 4 remaining role players did not resent their roles. Yes, we might be equally shocked at how good Derryck, Luke, or Chase is; how Grayson becomes game-to-game the game-changer he was in the NC; how great a rebounder Sean is; how much more consistent Matt's shot becomes; how Amile remembers his O moves, and moves them. But it seems unwise to expect a repeat of the specific kinds of positive star-shocks [neither forgetting nor needing to dwell on the one negative] that characterized our run to the NC. Rather, it seems more likely that Duke in 2015-16 will be less a star-driven team than an egalitarian bunch of talented starters, including several who don't start. And who don't mind.

Henderson
05-02-2015, 11:12 AM
Absolutely agree with this. GA is a major part of next year until someone beats him out of it. And good luck with that.

I predict that Grayson Allen will have both the highest FT attempts per minute played and the highest FT made per minute played.

One of the things impressive about Allen is his understanding that slashing to the basket is valuable even if he doesn't score the basket. Defensive assignments break down. And Grayson has said repeatedly that his drives are opportunities to get fouled. Free throws count as points too, and this guy seems to get that.

Teams will have to game plan for this. I'd like to see Grayson Allen get sufficient minutes to draw attention, then show his ability to pass off when opposing players converge to stop that.

sagegrouse
05-02-2015, 01:57 PM
This Points thread seems to have passed the Minutes thread as the go-to conversation for our way-early thinking about starters, rotation, mpg, ppg for 2015-16.

The civility of the discussion is refreshing [playing with house money relieves a lot of stress], the analysis and reasoning in support of quite different predictions impressive, and acknowledgements of uncertainties sensible.

Way-early uncertainties that must affect our predictions include [hardly an exhaustive list but.....]:

- Can/will Brandon log 10-15 mpg at stretch 4?
Or maybe a lot more. IMHO (where the H is silent), unless Chase Jeter is "good to go" as an offensive threat, K starts Ingram at the power forward position. Why? Well, I don't see us starting two big men, unless one is an offensive force -- and I think that has to be Jeter. Also, I think Matt, Grayson and Derryck are likely to start.

- Does Grayson's shining moment translate into go-to dependability on O and relentlessness on D, or just maniacal brilliance to compensate for maddening inconsistency? That's the $64 question. I expect regular minutes will produce regular results for Grayson, and I think K does as well.

- Will Derryck exhibit smart floor vision, be a pass-first PG, have a good ATO, and gain the confidence of his teammates? I dunno, maybe he wants to be a Q-Dog, not an ATO. Tyus Jones was an believable performer as a freshman. Maybe, just maybe lightning will strike twice, but I believe it is more likely that Derryck is solid PG, but not a star of the same magnitude as Tyus.

- How good is Luke, as solid backup PG, scorer against ACC-level competition? Great question, and I hope he steadily improves and is at his best in March.

- Which of Marshall, Sean, Chase will push ahead of the other 2, and why? I think all four will get regular minutes. I agree that Amile will get the most play, at least early in the season.

- Will K play some small-ball most games, and not just during stall-ball? Count on it!

- Will K revert to a 7-man rotation, or will "8 is Enough" have persuaded him that "9 Might Work"? I think there will be nine players in the rotation, in that all the big guys are gonna play at least ten minutes per game -- plus Ingram -- plus Matt and Grayson and Luke and Derryck. The advantage of playing all four bigs is that we can be more aggressive on defense.

[/QUOTE]

subzero02
05-02-2015, 02:43 PM
I predict that Grayson Allen will have both the highest FT attempts per minute played and the highest FT made per minute played.

One of the things impressive about Allen is his understanding that slashing to the basket is valuable even if he doesn't score the basket. Defensive assignments break down. And Grayson has said repeatedly that his drives are opportunities to get fouled. Free throws count as points too, and this guy seems to get that.

Teams will have to game plan for this. I'd like to see Grayson Allen get sufficient minutes to draw attention, then show his ability to pass off when opposing players converge to stop that.

The guy definitely isn't scared of contact; he doesn't initiate contact but he makes it likely to happen.

Kedsy
05-02-2015, 03:49 PM
Or maybe a lot more. IMHO (where the H is silent), unless Chase Jeter is "good to go" as an offensive threat, K starts Ingram at the power forward position. Why? Well, I don't see us starting two big men, unless one is an offensive force -- and I think that has to be Jeter. Also, I think Matt, Grayson and Derryck are likely to start.

This is an interesting point. I did a quick run through of seasons from 1983 to 2015, and the only years in which we didn't play at least one scoring big man were 2010 and 2011 (Mason and Ryan both started, but neither were big scorers -- considering their potential to both be scorers, maybe even 2011 doesn't count).

In years like 1997, 2003, and 2008, instead of playing two big men who couldn't score, we played four small guys. So your supposition would seem to make a lot of sense. This line of thinking would also lead to Luke Kennard playing more minutes, which seems to be a popular opinion on the Board. And of course, Coach K is famous for going small whenever he can.

The only thing that nags at me is I can't seem to reconcile it with another of your opinions (which I tentatively share), namely:



I think all four [big men] will get regular minutes.


I mean, yeah, the four of them could share 50 to 55 minutes among them (assuming Brandon plays 25 to 30 mpg at PF and 5 to 10 mpg at SF), and if all four big men played equally (10 to 15 minutes each) I suppose you could say they all played regular minutes, but it's hard for me to imagine it really working out that way. And if you look at each one individually in more detail, it becomes even harder to reconcile:

-- Amile has played 20+ mpg two years running and will be a senior captain. You'd think he should play at least 20, right? Which would only leave 30 to 35 to be split among the other three.

-- Marshall played a shade under 10 mpg last year, but as a fifth-year senior captain, I guess many of us hoped he'd move up from that. But let's say 10 to 15 because in this scenario it's almost impossible to see him playing more. That leaves us with 15 to 25 minutes to be split between Sean and Chase.

-- In last summer's RSCI, Chase Jeter was the 9th ranked recruit in the country. He seems to have dropped in the major services (ESPN: 9th to 11th; Rivals: 8th to 16th; Scout: 9th to 12th; 247: 14th to 15th), but overall he should still end up in the teens somewhere. But 9th to teens can be significant in the historical model:

SINCE RSCI BEGAN IN 1998

Duke recruits rated from 1 to 5 have averaged 30.0 mpg (8 datapoints; HIGH: Jason Williams, 34.0; Austin Rivers, 33.2; LOW: Josh McRoberts, 24.5; Kyrie Irving 27.5);

Duke recruits rated from 6 to 10 have averaged 24.8 mpg (5 datapoints; HIGH: Tyus Jones, 33.9; Chris Duhon, 27.8; LOW: Shelden Williams, 19.2; Gerald Henderson, 19.3);

Duke recruits rated from 11 to 15 have averaged 22.9 mpg (6 datapoints; HIGH: Greg Paulus, 32.3; JJ Redick, 30.7; LOW: Ryan Kelly, 5.7; Shavlik Randolph, 10.6);

Duke recruits rated from 16 to 20 have averaged 14.2 mpg (7 datapoints: HIGH: DeMarcus Nelson, 19.2; Corey Maggette, 17.7; LOW: Casey Sanders, 4.2; Lance Thomas, 14.0).


So, if Chase is rated in the teens, then depending on his readiness, team depth, etc., he could end up looking like Ryan Kelly or Shavlik Randolph (I maintain Casey Sanders was just a miss by the recruiting community). And I know a lot of people here think that's what's going to happen, but I don't think we have enough information to tell yet.

But keeping that caveat, from a historical viewpoint we likely have to pencil Chase's minutes in for at least the mid-teens. That leaves us 0 to 10 for Sean Obi.

-- Acknowledging that perhaps I sound like a broken record, Sean Obi was the third best defensive rebounder in the country as a freshman. Now, after a year of practice against future NBA players, it's just hard for me to accept anything less than 15 to 20 mpg for such an elite rebounding talent. Not saying it's necessarily going to happen that way, but it's hard to accept otherwise.

Which leaves us with -5 to -20 minutes. Obviously impossible. But if Amile gets 20 mpg and Marshall/Chase/Sean split 45 mpg among them, that only leaves 15 mpg for Brandon at PF. Which means he'll play something like 18 mpg at SF, which (a) puts us back in the perimeter soup, with Luke Kennard getting squeezed for minutes; and (b) leaves us with two non-scoring big men for at least 10 mpg and up to 25 mpg if Chase doesn't score that much.

It really is a conundrum.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 02:19 PM
Just one man's opinion, but I believe we start the year with Ingram at the 3 and both Lance and Marshall getting 20-25 min starting at the 4 and 5. Give the seniors a chance to lead us and make the other newcomers force them off the court. If Lance can't get us 10-12 ppg at the 4, then maybe Ingram moves to the 4 for 20 min per game (like Winslow this year) or Jeter gets minutes at the 4. I expect Thornton to be more turnover prone than Tyus, but I also expect him to be a better penetrator and get both Lance and Marshall more finishes at the rim.

So in my scenario, who sits early at the wing? I expect Kennard to sit (plays 5-10 min per game), just like Grayson did this year. Grayson was a higher rated recruit coming out of HS. And I expect Luke to be a sub-par defender next year. If he comes in and lights it up like the second coming of JJ Redick, then maybe that pushes Ingram toward more time at the 4. This raises another interesting question. Who spells Thornton 5-10 min per game? I expect Grayson to get first shot, but if Luke turns out to be a better ball handler and distributor than Grayson, then that would also get him more court time.

By the end of the year, I could definitely see us moving Ingram to more time at the 4, just like we did with Justise this year. But I don't expect us to start the year that way. But what do I know?

Kedsy
05-04-2015, 02:24 PM
Just one man's opinion, but I believe we start the year with Ingram at the 3 and both Lance and Marshall getting 20-25 min starting at the 4 and 5. Give the seniors a chance to lead us and make the other newcomers force them off the court. If Lance can't get us 10-12 ppg at the 4, then maybe Ingram moves to the 4 for 20 min per game (like Winslow this year) or Jeter gets minutes at the 4. I expect Thornton to be more turnover prone than Tyus, but I also expect him to be a better penetrator and get both Lance and Marshall more finishes at the rim.

You mean Amile?



So in my scenario, who sits early at the wing? I expect Kennard to sit (plays 5-10 min per game), just like Grayson did this year. Grayson was a higher rated recruit coming out of HS.

Well, we'll see exactly where Luke is ranked in the final RSCI when it comes out. In the preliminary (last summer) RSCI for this class, Luke was rated #21, while Grayson was ranked #24 last year. So, actually, Luke was/is probably a higher rated recruit than Grayson coming out of high school. That said, they are similarly ranked, and the fact that Grayson has spent a year in the program and excelled on the biggest stage ought to count for something.

stillcrazie
05-04-2015, 02:25 PM
Just one man's opinion, but I believe we start the year with Ingram at the 3 and both Lance and Marshall getting 20-25 min starting at the 4 and 5. Give the seniors a chance to lead us and make the other newcomers force them off the court. If Lance can't get us 10-12 ppg at the 4, then maybe Ingram moves to the 4 for 20 min per game (like Winslow this year) or Jeter gets minutes at the 4. I expect Thornton to be more turnover prone than Tyus, but I also expect him to be a better penetrator and get both Lance and Marshall more finishes at the rim.

So in my scenario, who sits early at the wing? I expect Kennard to sit (plays 5-10 min per game), just like Grayson did this year. Grayson was a higher rated recruit coming out of HS. And I expect Luke to be a sub-par defender next year. If he comes in and lights it up like the second coming of JJ Redick, then maybe that pushes Ingram toward more time at the 4. This raises another interesting question. Who spells Thornton 5-10 min per game? I expect Grayson to get first shot, but if Luke turns out to be a better ball handler and distributor than Grayson, then that would also get him more court time.

By the end of the year, I could definitely see us moving Ingram to more time at the 4, just like we did with Justise this year. But I don't expect us to start the year that way. But what do I know?

Lance = Amile.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 03:50 PM
Lance = Amile.

Ha! OK, yes. Lance=Amile. Guess that's not the worst switch-up I could make. Let's hope so.

In case it's not obvious, I'm pulling for both Amile and Marshall to have big years and provide great defense and senior leadership - much like Lance and Zoubek. I think they'll be ready.

I've got no problem with Jeter and Obi backing them up with 10-15 min per game and waiting their turn for next year.

If Thornton can provide steady leadership at the point (modest turnovers, good decision-making) and break down defenses off the dribble like I think he can, then I think we can contend for a national championship with Plumlee, Jefferson, Ingram, Jones, Allen and Thornton all playing starters minutes and Obi, Jeter and Kennard playing key back-up roles. If Obi or Jeter or Kennard force K to play them more minutes, then we'll be that much better.

Kedsy
05-04-2015, 04:31 PM
If Thornton can provide steady leadership at the point (modest turnovers, good decision-making) and break down defenses off the dribble like I think he can, then I think we can contend for a national championship with Plumlee, Jefferson, Ingram, Jones, Allen and Thornton all playing starters minutes and Obi, Jeter and Kennard playing key back-up roles. If Obi or Jeter or Kennard force K to play them more minutes, then we'll be that much better.

I agree the biggest key to Duke's season will be the play of Derryck Thornton.

I also agree the biggest questions marks (besides Derryck) are just how good and ready are Sean Obi, Chase Jeter, and Luke Kennard. At this point, I think everyone is just guessing.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 05:04 PM
I agree the biggest key to Duke's season will be the play of Derryck Thornton.

I also agree the biggest questions marks (besides Derryck) are just how good and ready are Sean Obi, Chase Jeter, and Luke Kennard. At this point, I think everyone is just guessing.

Agreed. Fun to guess! I think Amile and Marshall are ready to make that Thomas/Zoubek senior leap. They've been preparing for this season their whole lives.

fuse
05-04-2015, 07:39 PM
One website suggests the points per game range since 2000 for Duke is 70-90, with 77 being about the mean, and 70 and 90 being pretty big outliers.

I think the team will be pretty raw next year, or at least there are a lot of question marks.

Ingram 15
Allen 15
Obi 12
Kennard 10
Thornton 12
Jones 8
Jefferson 8
Jeter 8
Plumlee 4

That puts the team right at 92, way above the 77 mean and would be a (recent) historically good points per game for the team for a season. I'd call this an optimistic swag, thinking we'll be closer to 70 ppg.

I need to re-think the above per player- fun food for thought.

CDu
05-04-2015, 09:42 PM
One website suggests the points per game range since 2000 for Duke is 70-90, with 77 being about the mean, and 70 and 90 being pretty big outliers.

I think the team will be pretty raw next year, or at least there are a lot of question marks.

Ingram 15
Allen 15
Obi 12
Kennard 10
Thornton 12
Jones 8
Jefferson 8
Jeter 8
Plumlee 4

That puts the team right at 92, way above the 77 mean and would be a (recent) historically good points per game for the team for a season. I'd call this an optimistic swag, thinking we'll be closer to 70 ppg.

I need to re-think the above per player- fun food for thought.

You can start the re-calibration here: Obi, Jeter, and Plumlee aren't going to combine for 24 points per game. I will be surprised if those three combine for 50 mpg, so I think there is no way they approach 20 ppg. Drop them by a combined 10 ppg and we are starting to get in the ballpark of reason.

fuse
05-05-2015, 08:59 AM
One website suggests the points per game range since 2000 for Duke is 70-90, with 77 being about the mean, and 70 and 90 being pretty big outliers.

I think the team will be pretty raw next year, or at least there are a lot of question marks.

Ingram 14
Allen 15
Obi 8
Kennard 10
Thornton 10
Jones 6
Jefferson 6
Jeter 4
Plumlee 2

That puts the team right at 92, way above the 77 mean and would be a (recent) historically good points per game for the team for a season. I'd call this an optimistic swag, thinking we'll be closer to 70 ppg.

I need to re-think the above per player- fun food for thought.

Fair enough, CDu. Adjusted above to come in around 75 ppg, which somehow still feels high to me even though I am certain the per player production is nothing more than a dart board.

Indoor66
05-05-2015, 09:33 AM
Fair enough, CDu. Adjusted above to come in around 75 ppg, which somehow still feels high to me even though I am certain the per player production is nothing more than a dart board.

I am not sure how straight this crew shoots. Last year a Final Four All Tourney Team member wasn't expected to get off the bench. Soothsayers we are not. :cool:

CDu
05-05-2015, 09:50 AM
I am not sure how straight this crew shoots. Last year a Final Four All Tourney Team member wasn't expected to get off the bench. Soothsayers we are not. :cool:

To be fair, if Sulaimon hadn't gotten dismissed, Allen wouldn't have gotten off the bench. ;)

ACCBBallFan
05-05-2015, 01:04 PM
The main problem with making projections off "SINCE RSCI BEGAN IN 1998", is that not all classes are created equal and this year's class is relatively weak. That and it cannot factor in who else is on the team battling for minutes.

This may not be a problem in top 5 or 10 guys in ths year's class but as we get into the teens and 20's, perhaps have to downgrade 5 or so RSCI points to equalize against top recruiting classes.

With respect to scoring, the center by committee should be able to replicated the double double that Sean Obi had by himself at Rice two years ago.

Amile a/k/a Lance is a deficit on Offense but is needed for senior leadership and defense but perhaps only 20 MPG with more scoing coming from Ingram or Jeter at PF the other 20 MPG.

I don't think scoring will be an issue at all among the permiter guys whose minutes are somehow spread across Thonton, Allen, Kennard, Jones and Ingram.

Rather than Jefferson/Plumlee starting, I would just as soon see them in ther 2014-15 NCAA championship bench roles with Sean Obi and Ingram starting when small ball is feasible given the opponent and Obi/Jefferson when not.

pfrduke
05-05-2015, 01:31 PM
I am not sure how straight this crew shoots. Last year a Final Four All Tourney Team member wasn't expected to get off the bench. Soothsayers we are not. :cool:

To be fair to all of us, Allen played 12 minutes the entire weekend in the 16/8 rounds. I'm not sure even Coach K expected him to get as far off the bench as he got.

Kedsy
05-05-2015, 01:55 PM
The main problem with making projections off "SINCE RSCI BEGAN IN 1998", is that not all classes are created equal and this year's class is relatively weak. That and it cannot factor in who else is on the team battling for minutes.

Well, I think you can factor in who else is on the team battling for minutes. I have done so in a different thread.

As far as controlling for weak vs. strong classes, I agree that's almost impossible to do. At least at Duke, though, it doesn't seem necessary to make such an adjustment to fairly accurately predict who will be in the rotation. That's assuming Coach K doesn't completely change his stripes in 2015-16, which I'm not ruling out after seeing him play zone in 2014-15 for extensive periods.

Saratoga2
05-05-2015, 01:58 PM
To be fair to all of us, Allen played 12 minutes the entire weekend in the 16/8 rounds. I'm not sure even Coach K expected him to get as far off the bench as he got.

There is no denying that Grayson is a real competitor who is pretty quick and very athletic. He also had good form on his shot and was another deadeye at the foul line. I thought his defense improved a lot during the season as he stopped giving up those gratuitous fouls. He has a decent handle and doesn't make a lot of mistakes handling the ball. I thought he should have gotten more PT at Rasheed's expense last year but in the end that situation resolved itself. The one thing I notice about Grayson is that he is not as big as they have him listed, which could make his future NBA prospects hinge on him developing his handle still further. I do think he will get significant minutes next season and may be competing with Luke for time. It is possible he will also fill a role when Derryck is not in the game. Given the PT, he is capable of putting up double figures consistently.

Troublemaker
05-27-2015, 10:04 PM
Coach K comments a little bit on next year's team from the K academy. We'll see if he feels the same way in October, but for now, it sounds like expects Duke to be able to score well.

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article22461912.html

http://bluedevilnation.net/2015/05/coach-k-talks-hoops/

Kedsy
05-27-2015, 10:26 PM
Coach K comments a little bit on next year's team from the K academy. We'll see if he feels the same way in October, but for now, it sounds like expects Duke to be able to score well.

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article22461912.html

http://bluedevilnation.net/2015/05/coach-k-talks-hoops/

Interesting that in neither of the articles was there really any mention of Chase Jeter.

Duvall
05-27-2015, 10:43 PM
Interesting that in neither of the articles was there really any mention of Chase Jeter.

Interesting, but is it surprising?

Kedsy
05-27-2015, 11:49 PM
Interesting, but is it surprising?

I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

dukelifer
05-28-2015, 12:06 AM
I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

He struggled in the All Star games for what that is worth. The kid will get there but I expect it will take a while for him to adjust to the college game - but you never know.

mr. synellinden
05-28-2015, 01:55 AM
I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

As you often note, the players outside of the top 10 tend to be a bit of a crapshoot. Also, this year's class is generally considered to be weaker than last year's. There's also a lot of competition for 4/5 minutes with Obi, Jefferson, Plumlee and Ingram likely ahead of him in the rotation.

CDu
05-28-2015, 07:25 AM
I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee were top-20 bigs that weren't ready to be major ofensive contributors right away. And in his minutes in the McDonald's game and Hoops Summit, Jeter didn't look the part of a college-ready scorer. Sometimes these guys need a little seasoning to reach the potential behind their rankings.

Ichabod Drain
05-28-2015, 08:21 AM
Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee were top-20 bigs that weren't ready to be major offensive contributors right away. And in his minutes in the McDonald's game and Hoops Summit, Jeter didn't look the part of a college-ready scorer. Sometimes these guys need a little seasoning to reach the potential behind their rankings.

Not to mention Jeter doesn't even turn 18 until August. He's very young for his class, as is Ingram.

CDu
05-28-2015, 09:01 AM
Not to mention Jeter doesn't even turn 18 until August. He's very young for his class, as is Ingram.

It is also widely considered a much weaker class than last year's class. For example, I am not sure that Ingram (#3 on ESPN) is as good as Winslow.

Duvall
05-28-2015, 09:11 AM
It is also widely considered a much weaker class than last year's class. For example, I am not sure that Ingram (#3 on ESPN) is as good as Winslow.

Class strength is a factor, but Winslow was mostly just underrated going into last season - it's not like more than two or three of the dozen players rated ahead of Winslow in 2014 were better than him either.

A player rated ~15 can give a range of results as a freshman - you might get Justise Winslow, you might get Theo Pinson. Jeter will probably end up somewhere in between.

Kedsy
05-28-2015, 09:22 AM
As you often note, the players outside of the top 10 tend to be a bit of a crapshoot. Also, this year's class is generally considered to be weaker than last year's. There's also a lot of competition for 4/5 minutes with Obi, Jefferson, Plumlee and Ingram likely ahead of him in the rotation.

Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).


Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee were top-20 bigs that weren't ready to be major ofensive contributors right away. And in his minutes in the McDonald's game and Hoops Summit, Jeter didn't look the part of a college-ready scorer. Sometimes these guys need a little seasoning to reach the potential behind their rankings.

I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

Saratoga2
05-28-2015, 09:50 AM
Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).



I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

The NBA camp measurements listed him at 6'9" (stocking feet) and 236 pounds. He looked to move fluidly in his all star games but seemed to lack aggressiveness. He seems to have the physical gifts to be a really good player but may take some time to adjust to the physicality of the college game. His scoring ability wasn't evident in the all star games that were televised so that will be a wait and see proposition.

I find him difficult to compare to any of our recent players. Kelly was a little taller and longer but not as athletically gifted, but Kelly won the 3 point shooting contest as I recall. I don't see a close parallel with him. Mason Plumlee was similar in size and had some skill handling and scoring but to me in not really that similar to Chase. I guess with Chase we have a unique kid who we will need to watch as he develops and see what he can really do. He should get plenty of PT.

JohnJ
05-28-2015, 09:56 AM
Interesting that in neither of the articles was there really any mention of Chase Jeter.

I agree this is interesting (and surprising). Every other top recruit got a mention and Luke got a lot of praise from Capel:

"Luke is a big-time scorer," Capel said. "He scores so well that his basketball IQ, his passing, those things are overlooked because you've got a guy that averages 40 points a game. You probably don't think he's passing that much, but Luke is a guy that doesn't need the ball that much, either. The ball doesn't get stuck in his hands. He either shoots it or he moves it. He's strong, strong-minded — that's where football comes in — he's tough."

For a top 15 recruit to not get a mention seems strange to me.

Kedsy
05-28-2015, 10:02 AM
He should get plenty of PT.

Well, that's the question, isn't it? Seems like many people don't think he'll get much PT at all, at least not as a freshman. I'm not sure what to think at this point.


The NBA camp measurements listed him at 6'9" (stocking feet) and 236 pounds.

...

Kelly was a little taller and longer...

Ryan Kelly's pre-draft measurements were 6'9.75" (stocking feet) and 228 pounds. So Ryan is three quarters of an inch taller. Chase has a better wingspan (7'1.5" to 6'11.5") and a better standing reach (9'2.5" to 9'2"), so he's actually a little longer. Their weights appear comparable. I agree Ryan had more of a reputation as a shooter, but dimensionally they appear pretty similar. That said, Ryan didn't play much as a freshman.

NSDukeFan
05-28-2015, 12:08 PM
Well, that's the question, isn't it? Seems like many people don't think he'll get much PT at all, at least not as a freshman. I'm not sure what to think at this point.




I also have no idea what to think but would love to have four years of between Ryan and Mason production, ideally minus a couple injuries.

ChillinDuke
05-28-2015, 12:20 PM
I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

I understand what you're saying. And you used the word "conundrum" above, which I think is fitting to describe our front line's minutes.

That said, the glaring difference (as others have pointed out, and you probably recognize as well) between Justise and Chase is one of need. Last year's team had no slashing power wing (indeed, many teams did not). We had Sulaimon who was more of a lanky finesse, shooting wing and Matt Jones thought of (at the time; preseason) as a stationary shooting wing. Quinn was expected to play a considerable amount of time as an off-ball shooter. So the finesse and/or shooting wings were already pretty crowded. Jah was expected to be Jah. And Amile and Plumlee were more or less known quantities at preseason. So Justise, to go along with his solid recruiting ranking, had a clear role to fill. And filled it in spades, but that's after the fact.

Chase does not have the second part of the formula. He enters, as you mention, higher ranked than Justise. But he immediately goes up against two seniors (one a fifth-year), both of which were named captains, and both of which are more than adequate at rebounding and defense. Sean Obi, entering his third college season, is also expected (again, preseason) to give us more than adequate rebounding.

So in summary, for Chase to fulfill the second part of the equation that would lead to relevance in these preseason minutes/points threads, he would have to be a scoring big. And probably clearly so. I have not seen him touted as an impact scorer. Ever. If others have, please shoot a link over as I'd love to read about it.

So, yeah. He basically goes unnoticed in a thread like this while a guy like Luke Kennard (not knocking the guy, just stating what I've been observing for weeks now on DBR) gets trotted out there as an impact player when he (by the recruiting numbers) resembles the "Grayson Allen" of the class in comparison to last year. Obviously, I value K's words more than the recruiting rankings. But I think you [all] get my point(s).

- Chillin

Saratoga2
05-28-2015, 12:54 PM
Ryan Kelly's pre-draft measurements were 6'9.75" (stocking feet) and 228 pounds. So Ryan is three quarters of an inch taller. Chase has a better wingspan (7'1.5" to 6'11.5") and a better standing reach (9'2.5" to 9'2"), so he's actually a little longer. Their weights appear comparable. I agree Ryan had more of a reputation as a shooter, but dimensionally they appear pretty similar. That said, Ryan didn't play much as a freshman.

Ryan had that look on the court as a smaller Kevin McHale. He could shoot, had a few moves inside and was a deceptively good defender and got his blocks without being a guy who got off the floor really well. It is hard to judge Chase, but he moves more like a small forward in a PF body. Can he put the ball on the floor and does he have any mid range game? Hard to know but neither Amile nor MP3 has those attributes although they should be way ahead on defense. I do think he is mmore of a raw athlete and can get off the floor. I think the real question is whether he can do well in the inside in the physical college game.

jimsumner
05-28-2015, 01:27 PM
My best guess is that the 4/5 rotation will be pretty fluid next season.

Jeter could go all Elliott Williams on us, barely playing in November, starting in February.

gumbomoop
05-28-2015, 01:50 PM
My best guess is that the 4/5 rotation will be pretty fluid next season.

And given the possibility/likelihood that Brandon plays some stretch 4, more fluid still. With an 8.5-man rotation, Jeter is likely to be either 8 or .5 for awhile.

With his effective go-to jump hook, he might provide a few interior points, but only if he's strong and smart enough on D. Whereas the lower-rated Kennard, with such a variety of skills and smarts on O, will get some good PT even if only adequate on D. I'll repeat a comment I've made before: I doubt there are 20 [10, even] better incoming frosh, in terms of smarts, multi-skills, and effectiveness. Repeatedly, the staff has hinted that Luke can play. The most interesting recent comment is Capel's: "The ball doesn't get stuck in his hands. He either shoots it or he moves it. He's strong, strong-minded — that's where football comes in — he's tough."

As for Jeter, they wouldn't build a Taymon Domzalski statue to him in Hooville, but he'd play big minutes up there early on.

gam7
05-28-2015, 02:11 PM
Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).



I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

I hope he is like both of them in terms of duration of time with the program. He is very young and saw his stock steadily rise during the time Duke recruited him, so despite his recent correction in the rankings, I like his trajectory. If he is patient, I see him being a very nice long-term piece, but not sure he sees himself that way (re: the "long-term" part).

Kedsy
05-28-2015, 02:26 PM
My best guess is that the 4/5 rotation will be pretty fluid next season.

Jeter could go all Elliott Williams on us, barely playing in November, starting in February.

For what it's worth, Elliot Williams averaged nearly 16 mpg in seven November games his freshman (only) season at Duke. The month he barely played was January.

CDu
05-28-2015, 02:45 PM
Well, Jeter was ranked #8 in last summer's RSCI. I said top 15 because I assume he'll drop some in the final RSCI. So far he's dropped from 9 to 11 in ESPN; from 9 to 15 in Scout, from 8 to 16 in Rivals, and from 14 to 15 in 247. Depending on how he comes out with the remaining experts in the composite, I think he should end up between 10 and 15, with a good chance to be ranked a little bit better than both Ryan (10,12,14,17,19,20,32) and Mason (10,12,12,17,18,21,55).



I guess the question is will Chase Jeter be more like Ryan Kelly or Mason Plumlee? Both came on to a team that already had Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Miles Plumlee along the frontline, with Kyle Singler on the wing. Ryan hardly played, but after he got over his injury, Mason played 14 mpg.

The analogs here aren't bad:

Zoubek => Sean Obi
Mi Plumlee => Marshall Plumlee
Thomas => Amile Jefferson
Singler => Brandon Ingram

So, there's precedent for both sides of this: Chase could be like Ryan or he could be like Mason.

I guess my surprise is it seems near-unanimous that he'll be like Ryan. While I'm not sure anyone can know at this point.

First, I wouldn't say I'm in the "Ryan Kelly comp" crowd. I could very well see Jeter as falling right in line with what Mason Plumlee did as a freshman: 14.1mpg, 3.7ppg, 3.1rpg. I don't see why saying that Jeter is similar to Plumlee suggests he should be discussed as a factor offensively. Plumlee couldn't get consistent minutes on a team that could absolutely have used a post scoring presence (until Zoubek figured out how to stay on the floor, our frontcourt was quite a liability). It wasn't for another year or two before Mason was a reasonable consideration as an impact player on offense.

jimsumner
05-28-2015, 03:38 PM
First, I wouldn't say I'm in the "Ryan Kelly comp" crowd. I could very well see Jeter as falling right in line with what Mason Plumlee did as a freshman: 14.1mpg, 3.7ppg, 3.1rpg. I don't see why saying that Jeter is similar to Plumlee suggests he should be discussed as a factor offensively. Plumlee couldn't get consistent minutes on a team that could absolutely have used a post scoring presence (until Zoubek figured out how to stay on the floor, our frontcourt was quite a liability). It wasn't for another year or two before Mason was a reasonable consideration as an impact player on offense.

Mason's freshman season might not be a good analog for anyone. Many had him penciled in as the starting 4 until he suffered a pre-season injury. A wrist injury, IIRC. He missed a sizeable chunk of the preseason, fell behind Lance Thomas and never caught up.

Seemed to work out okay.

CDu
05-28-2015, 03:52 PM
Mason's freshman season might not be a good analog for anyone. Many had him penciled in as the starting 4 until he suffered a pre-season injury. A wrist injury, IIRC. He missed a sizeable chunk of the preseason, fell behind Lance Thomas and never caught up.

Seemed to work out okay.

I don't think I'd blame his not-readiness offensively on the wrist injury. It's worth noting that Mason wasn't very effective offensively as a sophomore either (7.2 ppg in 25.9 mpg). Mason had real problems early in his career in reacting and making a secondary move. When he was able to do exactly what he planned at the onset of his move, he was as graceful and as a gazelle and incredibly effective and awe-inspiring. But when a defender beat him to the spot or bumped him and changed the path to the basket, he didn't handle it well. So I have a suspicion that Mason looked better in practice in preseason for a number of reasons: he was probably facing a slightly less physical opposition during practice than during games (though we go hard in practice, we aren't going to do too much to risk hurting each other in practice), and facing guys who weren't game-ready (Miles) or who weren't athletic enough (Zoubek) to stop him. I'm sure the injury didn't help, but given that he didn't really find an offensive game until he was a junior, I'm not sure I'd blame the injury on his low numbers.

That said, I definitely agree that Mason worked out fine over time, and that the 2010 season certainly worked out okay.

jimsumner
05-28-2015, 04:21 PM
I don't think I'd blame his not-readiness offensively on the wrist injury. It's worth noting that Mason wasn't very effective offensively as a sophomore either (7.2 ppg in 25.9 mpg). Mason had real problems early in his career in reacting and making a secondary move. When he was able to do exactly what he planned at the onset of his move, he was as graceful and as a gazelle and incredibly effective and awe-inspiring. But when a defender beat him to the spot or bumped him and changed the path to the basket, he didn't handle it well. So I have a suspicion that Mason looked better in practice in preseason for a number of reasons: he was probably facing a slightly less physical opposition during practice than during games (though we go hard in practice, we aren't going to do too much to risk hurting each other in practice), and facing guys who weren't game-ready (Miles) or who weren't athletic enough (Zoubek) to stop him. I'm sure the injury didn't help, but given that he didn't really find an offensive game until he was a junior, I'm not sure I'd blame the injury on his low numbers.

That said, I definitely agree that Mason worked out fine over time, and that the 2010 season certainly worked out okay.

But Lance Thomas didn't give Duke any offense in 2010. My understanding is that Mason's missed practice time in the 2009-10 preseason negatively impacted his defense, limiting the time he had to learn all the stuff that Duke expects freshmen to learn on defense, thus falling behind Lance Thomas, who very much understood what Duke wanted him to do on defense.

CDu
05-28-2015, 04:51 PM
But Lance Thomas didn't give Duke any offense in 2010. My understanding is that Mason's missed practice time in the 2009-10 preseason negatively impacted his defense, limiting the time he had to learn all the stuff that Duke expects freshmen to learn on defense, thus falling behind Lance Thomas, who very much understood what Duke wanted him to do on defense.

And all I am saying that Mason wasn't effective offensively as a frosh, which is the context of this whole discussion. Kedsy brought up that it was weird that Jeter wasn't discussed specifically as a source of offense despite currently being a top-15 recruit. I noted that two similarly rated recruits of recent memory weren't ready to be key sources of offense as freshmen. In fact, they weren't all that big offensively as sophomores either, despite being starters.

jimsumner
05-28-2015, 05:27 PM
Actually, I think is was Sagegrouse who raised the question of Jeter's offensive ability.

But since that posting, I think the discussion of Jeter's freshman PT, or lack thereof, has become a bit more nuanced.

Hence my suggestion that Plumlee and Jeter might not be the most accurate analogy, given that Plumlee's preseason injury held him back that season and we have no way of predicting that Jeter will suffer a significant pre-season injury.

CDu
05-28-2015, 05:43 PM
Actually, I think is was Sagegrouse who raised the question of Jeter's offensive ability.

But since that posting, I think the discussion of Jeter's freshman PT, or lack thereof, has become a bit more nuanced.

Hence my suggestion that Plumlee and Jeter might not be the most accurate analogy, given that Plumlee's preseason injury held him back that season and we have no way of predicting that Jeter will suffer a significant pre-season injury.

I am quite sure I was replying to Kedsy's post referencing two articles in which Coach K talks about our firepower without mentioning Jeter. Sagegrouse may have also mentioned this, but that isn't the conversation I was participating in to which you joined. Perhaps because you were viewing my posts through the lense of a different discussion is why your response isn't consistent with this discussion?

And as I said in my previous post (with reasoning included so I won't post it again), I don't think Mason's injury is why he wasn't effective offensively as a frosh. Unless you also think that injury limited him all the way through his sophomore year as well. Which seems silly. I think his offensive struggles were there regardless of the injury. I think what we saw offensively from Mason as a soph was better that what we would have seen from Mason as a frosh, even if he hadn't been hurt. And what we saw as a soph was a not very ready offensive player.

So no, I don't think we have to plan for a Jeter injury for Mason's early-career offensive struggles to be evidence that Jeter vould possibly not be ready to contribute offensively as a frosh.

ChillinDuke
05-29-2015, 09:22 AM
I am quite sure I was replying to Kedsy's post referencing two articles in which Coach K talks about our firepower without mentioning Jeter. Sagegrouse may have also mentioned this, but that isn't the conversation I was participating in to which you joined. Perhaps because you were viewing my posts through the lense of a different discussion is why your response isn't consistent with this discussion?

And as I said in my previous post (with reasoning included so I won't post it again), I don't think Mason's injury is why he wasn't effective offensively as a frosh. Unless you also think that injury limited him all the way through his sophomore year as well. Which seems silly. I think his offensive struggles were there regardless of the injury. I think what we saw offensively from Mason as a soph was better that what we would have seen from Mason as a frosh, even if he hadn't been hurt. And what we saw as a soph was a not very ready offensive player.

So no, I don't think we have to plan for a Jeter injury for Mason's early-career offensive struggles to be evidence that Jeter vould possibly not be ready to contribute offensively as a frosh.

I tend to agree with your points re: Mason's injury and also re: Chase's readiness.

At the risk of sounding silly, I'll offer to the Board another metric I personally use to gauge an incoming player's readiness: DBR's chatter/hype machine.

As DBR is obviously hyper-focused on our team in particular, we parse, deconstruct, reconstruct, and over-speculate on every single player's daily breathing habits let alone basketball skills let alone potential basketball skills let alone incoming players' potential basketball skills. So when taking this Board's extensive, often exhaustive, fairly robust, and often wide-ranging views as a whole and roughly trying to gauge a mean or median viewpoint as to any one topic, I find our conclusions to be a pretty good indicator of where things will shake out.

So whether you find my metric useful or not, my sense is the mean/median view is mainly quiet on the Chase Jeter readiness front. And while I do sometimes find myself disagreeing with this "mean/median" view on certain topics, I more often fall in line or close.

That's at least in part where I shake out re: my predictions on Chase for next season.

- Chillin

jimsumner
05-29-2015, 12:32 PM
I am quite sure I was replying to Kedsy's post referencing two articles in which Coach K talks about our firepower without mentioning Jeter. Sagegrouse may have also mentioned this, but that isn't the conversation I was participating in to which you joined. Perhaps because you were viewing my posts through the lense of a different discussion is why your response isn't consistent with this discussion?

And as I said in my previous post (with reasoning included so I won't post it again), I don't think Mason's injury is why he wasn't effective offensively as a frosh. Unless you also think that injury limited him all the way through his sophomore year as well. Which seems silly. I think his offensive struggles were there regardless of the injury. I think what we saw offensively from Mason as a soph was better that what we would have seen from Mason as a frosh, even if he hadn't been hurt. And what we saw as a soph was a not very ready offensive player.

So no, I don't think we have to plan for a Jeter injury for Mason's early-career offensive struggles to be evidence that Jeter vould possibly not be ready to contribute offensively as a frosh.

This is the sagegrouse quote that I referenced.

"Or maybe a lot more. IMHO (where the H is silent), unless Chase Jeter is "good to go" as an offensive threat, K starts Ingram at the power forward position. Why? Well, I don't see us starting two big men, unless one is an offensive force -- and I think that has to be Jeter. Also, I think Matt, Grayson and Derryck are likely to start."

This evolved into a general discussion as to whether Jeter would play more as a freshman than a comparably-ranked Plumlee played as a freshman. I noted that Duke expected Mason to start going into the fall until he missed three or so weeks due to an injury and dropped behind Thomas in the rotation, thus reducing the efficacy of the Plumlee-as-freshman-versus-Jeter-as freshman discussion.

Mason was a better offensive player than was Thomas in 2010. But Thomas was a better defender and that's why he started. Plumlee's injury made it harder for him to close that gap. I do not expect Jeter to miss three weeks with an injury this fall. Thus, I find the comparison with Plumlee to be flawed.

CDu
05-29-2015, 02:01 PM
This is the sagegrouse quote that I referenced.

"Or maybe a lot more. IMHO (where the H is silent), unless Chase Jeter is "good to go" as an offensive threat, K starts Ingram at the power forward position. Why? Well, I don't see us starting two big men, unless one is an offensive force -- and I think that has to be Jeter. Also, I think Matt, Grayson and Derryck are likely to start."

I'm not sure why you are arguing with me about what part of the conversation I was involved in, but whatever. Here is the portion of the thread in which the post you replied to was responding. So, no, it was not based off sage's post. It was based off a discussion of Coach K's recent comments about our team's offensive firepower (see below):


Coach K comments a little bit on next year's team from the K academy. We'll see if he feels the same way in October, but for now, it sounds like expects Duke to be able to score well.

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article22461912.html

http://bluedevilnation.net/2015/05/coach-k-talks-hoops/


Interesting that in neither of the articles was there really any mention of Chase Jeter.


I guess not, the way everyone is talking. But the kid is a top 15 recruit. Ranked higher than Justise Winslow was ranked last year. It seems weird to me that everyone is writing him off.

As for the rest:


This evolved into a general discussion as to whether Jeter would play more as a freshman than a comparably-ranked Plumlee played as a freshman. I noted that Duke expected Mason to start going into the fall until he missed three or so weeks due to an injury and dropped behind Thomas in the rotation, thus reducing the efficacy of the Plumlee-as-freshman-versus-Jeter-as freshman discussion.

No, it was (as I understood it) a discussion of where Duke will get its points (see the quotes above to which I was responding), and the strangeness (or lack thereof) that Jeter wasn't mentioned as an expected contributor to our offense. Hence I brought up Kelly and Plumlee, neither of whom were ready to contribute much offensively as freshmen (or even really as sophomores).

Now, you may have misinterpreted my post. But your commentary didn't (doesn't) really pertain to what I was talking about.


Mason was a better offensive player than was Thomas in 2010. But Thomas was a better defender and that's why he started. Plumlee's injury made it harder for him to close that gap. I do not expect Jeter to miss three weeks with an injury this fall. Thus, I find the comparison with Plumlee to be flawed.

No doubt that Mason was better offensively than Thomas even as a frosh. But that doesn't mean he was ready to be a good contributor on offense as a frosh. He wasn't even ready to be a good contributor on offense as a sophomore. His injury didn't help, but it certainly wasn't like he was going to be a key contributor offensively as a frosh, even if he was healthy and had beaten out Thomas. So, again, I stand by what I said: Mason wasn't ready to contribute offensively as a freshman, regardless of the injury. His offensive readiness is not why he played so little, but it was still there. And as such, in the context of my point (which is determining whether Jeter will be ready to contribute offensively as a frosh), Plumlee is in my opinion a very valid consideration as a comparison.

If I were talking about Jeter's ability to get on the floor, then I might agree with you that Plumlee was not a good comp. But that was not what I was talking about.

BD80
05-29-2015, 09:45 PM
A sure sign of BB withdrawal? When we start arguing about what we are arguing about

devildeac
05-29-2015, 10:30 PM
A sure sign of BB withdrawal? When we start arguing about what we are arguing about

"Is this a five minute argument or the full half hour?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-30-2015, 12:53 AM
A sure sign of BB withdrawal? When we start arguing about what we are arguing about

Ah, off-season.

Amazing how we turn on ourselves.

NSDukeFan
05-30-2015, 06:26 AM
Ah, off-season.

Amazing how we turn on ourselves.

We do not.

Indoor66
05-30-2015, 06:48 AM
We do not.

Yes we do. I agree with Mountain Devil and you are wrong. :cool:

roywhite
05-30-2015, 06:53 AM
Ah, off-season.

Amazing how we turn on ourselves.

Off-season.

Where we talk more about less.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-30-2015, 07:33 AM
Can we get Wheat in here? At least then we can all shake our fists in the same direction.

Until then, I guess I will start a thread on how disgusting puppies and kittens are, and one on how much I dislike beer.

MarkD83
05-30-2015, 07:41 AM
Off-season.

Where we talk more about less.

At least the discussion is about HOW the team will play rather than IF the team will play.:rolleyes:

NSDukeFan
05-30-2015, 09:39 AM
Can we get Wheat in here? At least then we can all shake our fists in the same direction.

Until then, I guess I will start a thread on how disgusting puppies and kittens are, and one on how much I dislike beer.

This post is all wrong. If Wheat were here, half the people would welcome the contributions from a rational UNC fan, half of us would slam whatever he posted because he is a UNC fan and there is no such thing as a rational one, half would not notice because they have figured out the ignore function, half would be asking who is Wheat?, half would acknowledge he walks the line between subtle digs at Duke and trolling and wonder if that is reasonable for a rival fan, half would check these numbers and do a regression analysis to see if this math is right.

Oh, and beer is good.

bob blue devil
05-30-2015, 10:26 AM
...half would not notice because they have figured out the ignore function...

Wait, what? Please, I beg you, help me!

devildeac
05-30-2015, 02:26 PM
This post is all wrong. If Wheat were here, half the people would welcome the contributions from a rational UNC fan, half of us would slam whatever he posted because he is a UNC fan and there is no such thing as a rational one, half would not notice because they have figured out the ignore function, half would be asking who is Wheat?, half would acknowledge he walks the line between subtle digs at Duke and trolling and wonder if that is reasonable for a rival fan, half would check these numbers and do a regression analysis to see if this math is right.

Oh, and beer is good.

I think this post is about half right.

The second paragraph is 100% correct. Unless it's for the half of the folks here who don't like/drink beer;).

rocketeli
05-31-2015, 08:48 AM
Wait, what? Please, I beg you, help me!

60% of the time it works every time.

OldPhiKap
05-31-2015, 11:19 AM
So, anyway -- is this where I am supposed to post that THIS is the year K goes ten deep?

Or am I restricted to wondering how the leg-kick-when-you-shoot training is going?

"Basketball play"

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-31-2015, 12:38 PM
This post is all wrong. If Wheat were here, half the people would welcome the contributions from a rational UNC fan, half of us would slam whatever he posted because he is a UNC fan and there is no such thing as a rational one, half would not notice because they have figured out the ignore function, half would be asking who is Wheat?, half would acknowledge he walks the line between subtle digs at Duke and trolling and wonder if that is reasonable for a rival fan, half would check these numbers and do a regression analysis to see if this math is right.

Oh, and beer is good.

Where on earth are you even getting your statistics from? I need to see some citations if you are going to make such outrageous claims. Best I can tell (I'm not a math major) you have three halves in there, which equals only four posters. That means it's just me, you, and Wheat posting here.

That's it. I'm swearing off this ludicrous thread full of so-called "Duke fans." I'm not even going to pay any more attention to what anyone posts here. I mean, until someone says something so absurd that I'm forced to violate my own self-ban from the thread to pipe up and make more comments. So, like, an hour or so.

How many days til tip off?

jimsumner
05-31-2015, 01:51 PM
Where on earth are you even getting your statistics from? I need to see some citations if you are going to make such outrageous claims. Best I can tell (I'm not a math major) you have three halves in there, which equals only four posters. That means it's just me, you, and Wheat posting here.

That's it. I'm swearing off this ludicrous thread full of so-called "Duke fans." I'm not even going to pay any more attention to what anyone posts here. I mean, until someone says something so absurd that I'm forced to violate my own self-ban from the thread to pipe up and make more comments. So, like, an hour or so.

How many days til tip off?

Did you know that 71 percent of statistics are made up on the spot?

Indoor66
05-31-2015, 02:23 PM
Did you know that 71 percent of statistics are made up on the spot?

But that is only half of the time - so the real percentage is 35.5% made up 100% of the time.

NSDukeFan
05-31-2015, 06:31 PM
Did you know that 71 percent of statistics are made up on the spot?

I thought KenPom found it was 68% when you adjust for pace.

devildeac
05-31-2015, 08:10 PM
I thought KenPom found it was 68% when you adjust for pace.

TWEET!!

F1 on NSDukeFan for excessive snarkiness.

Jim Sumner to the line shooting 2 and possession of the keyboard.

:p:o

OldPhiKap
05-31-2015, 08:17 PM
TWEET!!

F1 on NSDukeFan for excessive snarkiness.

Jim Sumner to the line shooting 2 and possession of the keyboard.

:p:o

"Jim Sumner gets all the calls"

devildeac
05-31-2015, 08:20 PM
"Jim Sumner gets all the calls"

As well he should-he's a Duke guy;).

OldPhiKap
05-31-2015, 08:21 PM
As well he should-he's a Duke guy;).

Yeah, you can tell by the way he kicks out his leg as he posts. They much teach that.

Rest assured, Wheat or Bo Ryan will get to the bottom of it.

Indoor66
06-01-2015, 08:02 AM
Yeah, you can tell by the way he kicks out his leg as he posts. They much teach that.

Rest assured, Wheat or Bo Ryan will get to the bottom of it.

And all of the FLOPS. The tragedy of it all....

MChambers
06-01-2015, 08:24 AM
And all of the FLOPS. The tragedy of it all....
Could we hire Lenny Wirtz to moderate this board?

flyingdutchdevil
06-01-2015, 08:26 AM
It's so difficult, and I'm gonna flip-flop. Grayson Allen starts. I just don't see how he doesn't. He will be one of the top 2 most athletic guys on the court, he can hit the 3 pt shot, take it to the rim, take his man off the dribble, finish in the air. I mean, with the exception of the mid-range jumper (which I think is a very overrated skill), he can do plenty of amazing things on the offensive end.

He leads the team in points next year. Ingram must be amazing to beat out Grayson for top scorer.

So...my starting line-up with bench players getting the most minutes in consecutive order:

1 - Thornton - 9ppg
2 - Allen - 15ppg
3 - Jones - 6ppg
4 - Ingram - 13ppg
5 - Jefferson - 8ppg

6 - Obi - 7ppg
7 - Jeter - 4ppg
8 - Kennard - 6ppg
9 - MP3 - 2ppg

Total points: 70

mgtr
06-01-2015, 08:36 AM
I am pretty much in line with FDD, particularly with regard to Allen. I believe he will start, and be a star. I will buy in to the idea of 15 PPG. The thing that could hold him back is fouling. He is so aggressive, he may get carried away and keep himself on the bench.

jimsumner
06-01-2015, 10:58 AM
It's so difficult, and I'm gonna flip-flop. Grayson Allen starts. I just don't see how he doesn't. He will be one of the top 2 most athletic guys on the court, he can hit the 3 pt shot, take it to the rim, take his man off the dribble, finish in the air. I mean, with the exception of the mid-range jumper (which I think is a very overrated skill), he can do plenty of amazing things on the offensive end.

He leads the team in points next year. Ingram must be amazing to beat out Grayson for top scorer.

So...my starting line-up with bench players getting the most minutes in consecutive order:

1 - Thornton - 9ppg
2 - Allen - 15ppg
3 - Jones - 6ppg
4 - Ingram - 13ppg
5 - Jefferson - 8ppg

6 - Obi - 7ppg
7 - Jeter - 4ppg
8 - Kennard - 6ppg
9 - MP3 - 2ppg

Total points: 70

Seventy ppg seems a bit on the conservative side. This Duke team should be an up-tempo squad. I don't see scoring as a problem.

I do agree that Allen and Ingram project as mid-teens scorers. And I see Jefferson channeling his inner-Tony Lang, c. 1994, giving Duke 11-12 ppg.

The rest is really up for grabs. Jones could be 5 ppg or 12 ppg. Was Gonzaga a harbinger of things to come? Or an aberration? I do see Jeter going higher than 4 ppg. Obi is a real wild card for me. I don't have a clue. Kennard could have double figures but only if he takes significant minutes away from Jones/Allen/Ingram or if Ingram plays the bulk of his minutes at the 4.

That's what should make this season a lot of fun, with some frustrations mixed in. Lots of ingredients, a master chemist and a challenging environment.

Could next season be like the 1991 season? Duke was replacing three senior starters and K had nine guys with multiple starts, lineups all over the place, with everything coming together at the end.

Or 2007, when Duke replaced four key seniors--two All-Americans--with multiple starters, lineups all over the place, with everything not coming together at the end.

Likely something in the middle. But interesting, nonetheless.

flyingdutchdevil
06-01-2015, 11:28 AM
Seventy ppg seems a bit on the conservative side. This Duke team should be an up-tempo squad. I don't see scoring as a problem.

I do agree that Allen and Ingram project as mid-teens scorers. And I see Jefferson channeling his inner-Tony Lang, c. 1994, giving Duke 11-12 ppg.

The rest is really up for grabs. Jones could be 5 ppg or 12 ppg. Was Gonzaga a harbinger of things to come? Or an aberration? I do see Jeter going higher than 4 ppg. Obi is a real wild card for me. I don't have a clue. Kennard could have double figures but only if he takes significant minutes away from Jones/Allen/Ingram or if Ingram plays the bulk of his minutes at the 4.

That's what should make this season a lot of fun, with some frustrations mixed in. Lots of ingredients, a master chemist and a challenging environment.

Could next season be like the 1991 season? Duke was replacing three senior starters and K had nine guys with multiple starts, lineups all over the place, with everything coming together at the end.

Or 2007, when Duke replaced four key seniors--two All-Americans--with multiple starters, lineups all over the place, with everything not coming together at the end.

Likely something in the middle. But interesting, nonetheless.

For me, this is the key. Last year, we knew the following about the 2014-15 team:

-Okafor would score and would start
-Winslow would be a Swiss Army knife and would start
-Tyus Jones could pass and would compete with Cook at the PG (which didn't happen)
-Amile would start

That's really all we knew, but it turns out that Okafor would be the best post-scorer since Duncan, Winslow would be at least good at everything and incredible at others, Tyus Jones would be clutch, Cook could lead, M Jones would complement the starting line up very well, and Amile Jefferson provided great depth in the post.

Here is what we know about next year:

-M Jones and Jefferson are above average defenders
-Thornton is our only true PG
-Allen can be a really good offensive player
-Ingram has plenty of talent

I'm sure we can add a few more, but what we know doesn't translate that well to stats.

However, there is one thing that I know for sure:

-This team will be really, really fun to watch. We will lose a few games due to [insert here: chemistry/poor defense/poor 3pt shooting/non-existent post-play], but this will be a really fun team to watch grow up between November to (hopefully) early April.

Coach K has a ton of pieces that don't really overlap much. We have scorers, defenders, rebounders, distributors, 3pt shooters, slashers, intangibles, leaders, and depth, but no one really knows how those pieces fit in now. Gonna be a lot of fun!!!

Is November here yet?

gumbomoop
06-01-2015, 11:44 AM
It's so difficult, and I'm gonna flip-flop. Grayson Allen starts. I just don't see how he doesn't. He will be one of the top 2 most athletic guys on the court, he can hit the 3 pt shot, take it to the rim, take his man off the dribble, finish in the air. I mean, with the exception of the mid-range jumper (which I think is a very overrated skill), he can do plenty of amazing things on the offensive end.

He leads the team in points next year. Ingram must be amazing to beat out Grayson for top scorer.

So...my starting line-up with bench players getting the most minutes in consecutive order:

1 - Thornton - 9ppg
2 - Allen - 15ppg
3 - Jones - 6ppg
4 - Ingram - 13ppg
5 - Jefferson - 8ppg

6 - Obi - 7ppg
7 - Jeter - 4ppg
8 - Kennard - 6ppg
9 - MP3 - 2ppg

Total points: 70

Criticism being necessary, I'll hope not to be overly disagreeable. But I do disagree some here.

I'll guess closer to 80 than 70 ppg. Although I do expect Ingram to play some as stretch 4, I don't expect him to begin the season there, nor Jefferson to begin, or end, the season as the starting 5. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ingram-Jefferson combo inside at some point, but only in selected situations. When Ingram is at the stretch 4, I'd think Krzyzewski would want a more beefy 5.

[Here I go beyond my disagreement with a couple of points in FDD's post to more general speculations.....] Because several guys are muti-positional (?), with Ingram, Jones, and Kennard especially intriguing (possibly Jeter, too), K will have lots of options. One I hope he'll pursue is early-season experimentation with full-court pressing. He's got 5 perimeter players (counting Ingram for this purpose), so they can go full blast whenever necessary; solid subs are available at every position. Plus, Amile is practiced at full-court disruption; maybe Jeter could do that, too.

Hard to see K reverting to only a 7-man rotation, as just now there seem no obvious top 7. Top 3 maybe -- Ingram, Thornton, Allen -- but not top 7. And because no obvious second big -- after obvious Jefferson -- an 8.5-man rotation seems more likely than 7. K has 9 guys (Vrankovic is an even wilder card than, say, Jeter) to play from the first game, and I don't expect 2 of them to fall clearly toward DNP-land by mid-season. I myself don't expect even one of them to land there by mid-season, so I'm sticking with 8.5. And as I wonder whether 8 and .5 may shift from game to game, it's more like 9, with 8 and 9 perhaps averaging only 6-7 mpg in second half of season. Some will not count 6-7 mpg as "in the rotation," but anyone who plays every game for those minutes is a rotation-guy by my count.

COYS
06-01-2015, 11:50 AM
For me, this is the key. Last year, we knew the following about the 2014-15 team:

-Okafor would score and would start
-Winslow would be a Swiss Army knife and would start
-Tyus Jones could pass and would compete with Cook at the PG (which didn't happen)
-Amile would start



I actually think a lot of us were on the fence about Justise starting or coming off the bench. He fell in the 11-20 range in terms of RSCI ranking and was competing with a rising junior in Rasheed, a guy we all thought was ready to put it all together after learning hard lessons his sophomore season, and a rising sophomore in Matt who had already proven a capable defender and had garnered starts during his freshman season. If Justise started, many thought it would potentially be in place of the loser of the PG battle between Quinn and Tyus.

We knew Okafor was a serious talent and that Justise and Tyus were great complements to the team, but I don't think we knew for sure that Justise would start.

Although I agree with your overall point. Next year will be interesting and full of surprises. I'm trying to think of the last season that didn't have a surprise starting lineup thrown in there at some point. I don't think anyone anticipated Justise starting at the 4 in any lineup combination that didn't include Rasheed this past season. The year before, everyone was surprised Rasheed didn't start right away and even more surprised when Matt won some starting gigs. The season before that, Alex Murphy was expected to fill in at the SF spot, as he was the guy that Gbinije saw as a real roadblock to playing time. Before that, I think people were surprised to see both Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston win starting spots.

I think we're in for a lot of surprises. There are so many question marks that it be even more surprising if there were no curveballs and the lineup stays fixed for the entire season.

flyingdutchdevil
06-01-2015, 11:54 AM
I'll guess closer to 80 than 70 ppg. Although I do expect Ingram to play some as stretch 4, I don't expect him to begin the season there, nor Jefferson to begin, or end, the season as the starting 5. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ingram-Jefferson combo inside at some point, but only in selected situations. When Ingram is at the stretch 4, I'd think Krzyzewski would want a more beefy 5.

I too used to think Ingram as a 3, but then I remembered, "this is Coach K we're talking about". The only time that Coach K hasn't utilized a stretch 4 is when he doesn't have one (2006, 2010). Coach K looooooooves his stretch 4s, and Ingram is the perfect definition of one. The only issue with Ingram is whether he can guard 4s, but he is 6'9" with a ridiculous 7'3" wingspan. What he makes for strength he makes up for in length.

I think we'll see Ingram as a 3 a lot, but I really expect that Ingram will finish the season playing ~75% of his minutes at the 4.

gumbomoop
06-01-2015, 12:04 PM
I too used to think Ingram as a 3, but then I remembered, "this is Coach K we're talking about". The only time that Coach K hasn't utilized a stretch 4 is when he doesn't have one (2006, 2010). Coach K looooooooves his stretch 4s, and Ingram is the perfect definition of one. The only issue with Ingram is whether he can guard 4s, but he is 6'9" with a ridiculous 7'3" wingspan. What he makes for strength he makes up for in length.

I think we'll see Ingram as a 3 a lot, but I really expect that Ingram will finish the season playing ~75% of his minutes at the 4.

I don't disagree with you here. And maybe Ingram playing lots of his late-season minutes as stretch 4 fits my speculation above ^ about 2 of Marshall, Sean, and Jeter being the 8-9 guys, with more limited minutes.

But I'll stick with my guess that when Ingram is at stretch 4, we're likely to see Marshall or Sean at the 5. So if, say, Ingram is stretch 4 for 16-18 mpg, then maybe for most of those minutes Marshall or Sean will be 5.

sagegrouse
06-01-2015, 12:15 PM
Thanks for the analysis, FDD and others. Here's my take: The potential of the team is enormously high; the uncertainty is substantial.

First, we have more talent returning this year than last year (not counting Rasheed and Semi from last year). We had four last year: Amile, Marshall, Matt and Quinn. This year we also have Amile, Marshall and Matt, all of whom figure to be better. Instead of Quinn, we have Grayson. In total, a lot of talent and experience.

Last year, new members of the team included:
Okafor, a vertitudinally capable scoring machine.
Winslow, a force of nature.
Tyus Jones, the quintessential PG.
Grayson Allen, who was not a factor early but came on in the FF.

This year, we have newcomers:
Sean Obi and Chase Jeter vs. Okafor. No one's likely to be anywhere near Jah, but we got two guys who can play.
Brandon Ingram vs. Justise. Different type players, but Ingram could be really good.
Derryck Thornton vs. Tyus. Same position, and I am not forecasting Derryck to be as good as Tyus, but he should be an adequate replacement.
Luke Kennard vs. Grayson. Luke could be better as a freshman than Grayson.
Vrank and Justin as wild cards and emergency depth.

We could be really good. We will have depth on the interior and much more experience there than a year ago. One of the freshman has to play like an A-A and a lottery pick -- Ingram? -- but I am happy for Luke or Chase to blow up. Thornton has to be able to own the PG position.

It should be a fun season.

Sage

COYS
06-01-2015, 12:20 PM
I too used to think Ingram as a 3, but then I remembered, "this is Coach K we're talking about". The only time that Coach K hasn't utilized a stretch 4 is when he doesn't have one (2006, 2010). Coach K looooooooves his stretch 4s, and Ingram is the perfect definition of one. The only issue with Ingram is whether he can guard 4s, but he is 6'9" with a ridiculous 7'3" wingspan. What he makes for strength he makes up for in length.



I would even add that in 2006, Josh McRoberts was originally believed to have stretch 4 abilities. He was a guard who grew a TON in high school and still maintained a lot of his passing and ball-handling ability. He even took 13 threes that season (making 5), most of them very early on when he seemed to have the green light from the staff before it became clear that it wasn't the best shot for the team. So even though Duke didn't play a stretch 4 in 2006, I think the original idea was that Josh would fill that role. I agree. Good floor spacing (which usually requires a player at the 4 or 5 spot that can hit threes) is a hallmark of a Coack K offense. Look how much the team struggled in 2012 and 2013 when Ryan went down with injuries.

So I'm definitely on your side of the debate. I think Brandon sees significant time at the 4. I'll be surprised if, by the end of the season, he's not at the very least splitting his minutes evenly between the three and four.

My thinking follows this logic -

-Matt has already started for parts of two seasons. Historically, that gives him an edge coming into this next season.

-Grayson played sparingly last year. However, three of the four players we lose from last year were perimeter-oriented players (four out of five if you count Rasheed as a loss . . . five out of six if you count Semi). If you're like me and you think Grayson will be on of our best players, then that means it is likely that both Grayson and Matt see the lots of time together on the floor.

-Coach K has no problem starting freshman point guards. The list is long, of course, but if you can play point guard and you're the only one on the team, you are likely to start. Therefore, I think it is likely that Derryck starts and gets as many minutes as he can handle.

-Brandon will be one of our best and most important players on the team. Top 5 freshman always start and (basically) always star for Coach K.

If all four of those things prove to be true, then I just don't see many scenarios where Brandon and three guards don't spend a lot of time on the court together. A combination of two forwards (Amile, Chase, Obi, and Marshall) would have to prove to be more effective than combos that include our only natural point guard, our best returning defender, our (most likely) best returning scorer, and our best incoming freshman. I certainly could be wrong, but at the end of the day, it's hard for me to bet that Grayson, Matt, and Derryck won't effectively force Brandon to play at the 4. And, while it was more out of necessity than design, Coach K played Rodney at the 4 and he is even smaller than Derryck and didn't possess the strength of Justise nor have the size of Jahlil and Marshall next to him.

flyingdutchdevil
06-01-2015, 01:23 PM
I don't disagree with you here. And maybe Ingram playing lots of his late-season minutes as stretch 4 fits my speculation above ^ about 2 of Marshall, Sean, and Jeter being the 8-9 guys, with more limited minutes.

But I'll stick with my guess that when Ingram is at stretch 4, we're likely to see Marshall or Sean at the 5. So if, say, Ingram is stretch 4 for 16-18 mpg, then maybe for most of those minutes Marshall or Sean will be 5.

Yeah, that does make a lot more sense. Especially if Sean turns out to be a monster on the boards and a really good post defender. I slotted in Amile at the 5 because a) I think he'll bulk up even more (ie NBA PF bulk), b) he's the most experienced frontcourt player, c) he's a two-year captain.

The frontcourt is really, really interesting in terms of how it plays out.

CDu
06-01-2015, 02:30 PM
I agree with jimsumner and gumbomoop that 70ppg for the team seems too low. Given the rules changes (meaning more possessions) and Duke's typical ppg output over the last 5-10 years, I'd be shocked if it is that low.

I do share the Dutchman's viewpoint that there is a lot up in the air in terms of PT. But I think we can bucket guys according to some general understandings:

PG: Thornton + a backup
wing: Allen/Jones/Kennard
big wing/stretch-4: Ingram
PF: Jefferson
C: Jeter/Obi/Plumlee

Based on that, I think we'll see the following scoring:

PG: Thornton (10ish), backup (2-3)
wing: Allen/Jones/Kennard (30ish)
big wing/stretch-4: Ingram (15ish)
PF: Jefferson (10ish)
C: Jeter/Obi/Plumlee (10ish)

That puts us at 77-78ish points, which feels about right to me.

SilkyJ
06-01-2015, 03:00 PM
Could next season be like the 1991 season? Duke was replacing three senior starters and K had nine guys with multiple starts, lineups all over the place, with everything coming together at the end.

Or 2007, when Duke replaced four key seniors--two All-Americans--with multiple starters, lineups all over the place, with everything not coming together at the end.


I agree, likely something in the middle. Christian Laettner and Grant Hill ain't walking through that door, but the '05 HS class, which was a large part of our team in '07 (Paulus, McBob...Boykin sorta) was largely considered a bust as a class (across the board, not just at Duke), and I don't expect this class to be that weak.


Yeah, that does make a lot more sense. Especially if Sean turns out to be a monster on the boards and a really good post defender. I slotted in Amile at the 5 because a) I think he'll bulk up even more (ie NBA PF bulk), b) he's the most experienced frontcourt player, c) he's a two-year captain.

The frontcourt is really, really interesting in terms of how it plays out.

I don't think Amile will be anywhere near NBA PF bulk this year. His frame just isn't built for it. There are two types of NBA PFs typically--tall but slender-ish 7 footers like say Pau and Duncan (checking in at a "slender" 250) or shorter beefier 6'8/6'9 types like say Boozer or Millsap who are still 250-260ish.

Amile checked in at 215lbs last year. I expect he'll get to about ~225 this year, which will make him very effective at PF (assuming he maintains his level of agility, on which he is reliant without explosive leaping ability), and occasionally effective at C depending on our opponent. So he may play some minutes at the 5, but with two true Centers in Obi and Marshall on the roster, I think he'll only play there 5-10mpg max. That said, there's a ton we don't know about Obi, MP3's 5th year senior "jump," and Amile's ability to make a jump offensively. If he can become an effective scorer in the 10-12ppg range, then maybe we can afford to play him at the 4 with a defensive minded 5 like Obi/MP3. If he can't raise his scoring, I think it'll be tough to play two players at the 4 & 5 who can't provide much scoring...and then you may be right and he may play a decent amount at the 5. But even then my guess is we'd rather play Obi/MP3 against more true centers and slide Ingram up to the 4, with Amile getting squeezed.

Also, while minutes and points are undoubtedly correlated, all this back and forth about Jeter's minutes may not be that germane to the main discussion of where the points come from. I think we all expect the majority of our points to come from the wing/backcourt given the offensive abilities of our big men, including Chase. If he ends up getting squeezed in the front court (someone(s) is going to) he'll clearly score only a couple ppg, and even if he plays 15-20 mpg, he may still only score 5-6ppg like Amile/MP3. He seems to have a little bit more offensive game than those two, but not a ton as of yet. So I'm not sure it really matters whether he plays 5, 10 or 20mpg, I don't think he's going to make a huge impact on our offense next year. Of course, I've been wrong before...I think :p

flyingdutchdevil
06-01-2015, 03:01 PM
I agree with jimsumner and gumbomoop that 70ppg for the team seems too low. Given the rules changes (meaning more possessions) and Duke's typical ppg output over the last 5-10 years, I'd be shocked if it is that low.

I do share the Dutchman's viewpoint that there is a lot up in the air in terms of PT. But I think we can bucket guys according to some general understandings:

PG: Thornton + a backup
wing: Allen/Jones/Kennard
big wing/stretch-4: Ingram
PF: Jefferson
C: Jeter/Obi/Plumlee

Based on that, I think we'll see the following scoring:

PG: Thornton (10ish), backup (2-3)
wing: Allen/Jones/Kennard (30ish)
big wing/stretch-4: Ingram (15ish)
PF: Jefferson (10ish)
C: Jeter/Obi/Plumlee (10ish)

That puts us at 77-78ish points, which feels about right to me.

The wild card here seems to be Jefferson. I am convinced that, come January, Ingram will play 75%+ of his time at the 4. With 3 competent shooters (Allen, Ingram, Kennard), a streaker shooter (M Jones), and an unknown (Thornton), there is a decent amount of shooting potential on this team. Remember how we all thought 3pt shooting was going to be a weakness last year? Well, on the surface, this team looks better than last year in terms of shooting potential (ie what we thought last summer of this past team vs how we view the shooting of next year's team now).

Assuming that shooting is to the normal Duke standard, Ingram will see plenty of time at the 4. Also, given that we have 3 big dudes at the 5 over 6'9" (Jeter/Obi/MP3), where does Jefferson fit in? I can't see how Jefferson only takes spot minutes at the 4, and the 5 seems way too crowded. But Jefferson has the most minutes played on this team, so that needs to count for something, right?

Jefferson's minute dilemma is really interesting.

cato
06-01-2015, 03:30 PM
The wild card here seems to be Jefferson. I am convinced that, come January, Ingram will play 75%+ of his time at the 4. With 3 competent shooters (Allen, Ingram, Kennard), a streaker shooter (M Jones), and an unknown (Thornton), there is a decent amount of shooting potential on this team. Remember how we all thought 3pt shooting was going to be a weakness last year? Well, on the surface, this team looks better than last year in terms of shooting potential (ie what we thought last summer of this past team vs how we view the shooting of next year's team now).

Assuming that shooting is to the normal Duke standard, Ingram will see plenty of time at the 4. Also, given that we have 3 big dudes at the 5 over 6'9" (Jeter/Obi/MP3), where does Jefferson fit in? I can't see how Jefferson only takes spot minutes at the 4, and the 5 seems way too crowded. But Jefferson has the most minutes played on this team, so that needs to count for something, right?

Jefferson's minute dilemma is really interesting.

Off hand, I cannot recall someone like Jefferson losing a spot in the rotation during K's tenure. He is a plus defender, a captain, has been either starter or logged heavy minutes the past two years, and will be a senior. Like you say, the great mystery is where Amile will fit in. I suspect the answer is "on the court," but I just don't know how yet.

flyingdutchdevil
06-01-2015, 03:38 PM
Off hand, I cannot recall someone like Jefferson losing a spot in the rotation during K's tenure. He is a plus defender, a captain, has been either starter or logged heavy minutes the past two years, and will be a senior. Like you say, the great mystery is where Amile will fit in. I suspect the answer is "on the court," but I just don't know how yet.

With you all the way. He's too valuable to Duke to not see significant minutes on the floor. If Ingram cannot be effective at the 4, then we have our answer. But history dictates that an Ingram-like player is much better at the 4 in Coach K's system than the 3. And Coach K likes winning.

I suspect that the first month will be all about trial-and-error with line-ups (significantly moreso than in previous years). I don't think that Amile will lose his spot in the rotation, but it's important to note that he only averaged 18.5 minutes in the last 15 games of the season. Like you said, as a plus defender, a captain, and a key contributor for the last two years, 18.5 minutes doesn't seem that significant.

MChambers
06-01-2015, 03:51 PM
With you all the way. He's too valuable to Duke to not see significant minutes on the floor. If Ingram cannot be effective at the 4, then we have our answer. But history dictates that an Ingram-like player is much better at the 4 in Coach K's system than the 3. And Coach K likes winning.
This would be true if Coach K had a system! But he adapts his approach to his roster, don't you know?

In all seriousness, he does tend to go small, thinking that speed beats strength in most situations. So maybe Ingram mostly plays at the 4.

Troublemaker
06-01-2015, 04:08 PM
But history dictates that an Ingram-like player is much better at the 4 in Coach K's system than the 3. And Coach K likes winning.

Yep. By the end of next season, I'd expect that the best +/- lineups for Duke will be the ones with Ingram at the 4. It's just a question of how much he's going to be able to play there. I think Duke may gradually ramp him up into that role the way they did it with Justise. I do think Brandon will end up playing fewer minutes at the 4 than Justise, though, because I expect Amile to have a fantastic senior season such that two-big lineups with Amile at the 4 will still be effective (just not as effective as 4-out-1-in lineups.)

One thing that should be mentioned (if it hasn't already) is that if college basketball is less physical next season (which is the stated goal of the rules committee), that will help Brandon, Chase, and Amile play more minutes at the 4 and 5.

Troublemaker
06-01-2015, 04:20 PM
Hard to see K reverting to only a 7-man rotation

Don't tug on Superman's cape.

Here's how I could see a 7-man rotation shaking out.





Starters



Rotation



in blowouts


25
Fr
DThornton

20
Fr
Kennard






30
So
Allen





0
Fr
Robinson


35
Fr
Ingram

25
Jr
MJones

0
So
Obi


35
Sr
Jefferson





0
Sr
Marshall


30
Fr
Jeter





-
Rs
Vrankovic



Amile is the backup C to Chase, and Ingram is the backup PF to Amile. So, all minutes at the 4 and 5 will be taken up by those three players.

Do I actually think that all the other bigs (MP3, Obi, Vrank) will get shut out of minutes in competitive games?

No, but I wouldn't put it past Coach K. I think this 7-man rotation is more likely than a 9-man rotation for this upcoming season. (But in the minutes prediction thread, I went with an 8-man rotation.)

gumbomoop
06-01-2015, 04:33 PM
Assuming that shooting is to the normal Duke standard, Ingram will see plenty of time at the 4. Also, given that we have 3 big dudes at the 5 over 6'9" (Jeter/Obi/MP3), where does Jefferson fit in? I can't see how Jefferson only takes spot minutes at the 4, and the 5 seems way too crowded. But Jefferson has the most minutes played on this team, so that needs to count for something, right?

Jefferson's minute dilemma is really interesting.


I don't think that Amile will lose his spot in the rotation, but it's important to note that he only averaged 18.5 minutes in the last 15 games of the season.... 18.5 minutes doesn't seem that significant.

I guess Jefferson's minutes will be most negatively impacted by the number of minutes Ingram plays as stretch 4. [Jeter could have an impact, too, though for now I'm inclined to see him battling Marshall and Sean for minutes at the 5.]. Jefferson's minutes would perhaps be most positively impacted by his significant improvement as an O-threat, e.g., FT-line jumper, more assertiveness along baseline, and some weight-gain that might slot him into the 5 for a few mpg.

But let's assume for the moment that Amile remains no real threat as a jump shooter, that only infrequently, and then mostly unplanned, does he have opportunities along the baseline, and that he doesn't gain enough weight to play much at all at the 5. Then, let's further assume that all this speculation about Ingram playing substantial minutes as stretch 4, with which I agree, comes to pass. Ok, say, Imgram plays 30 mpg, of which 20 are at stretch 4. That leaves Jefferson with ~ 20 mpg. A little less for Ingram at stretch 4, maybe Jefferson is up to 22-23 mpg.

Those are big, not spot, minutes. And, when K goes to stall-ball, Amile is unlikely to be on the floor; so in many games Amile's 20-25 (absolute tops) mpg will come in the first 36-37 minutes of the game. Plus, Amile will occasionally sit out some time because of foul trouble. A lot would have to go swimmingly for Amile actually to average 25 mpg.

But at 20-22 mpg, he's very important, and will be regularly acknowledged as such, I think.

Now, otoh, Jeter's minutes dilemma..........

gumbomoop
06-01-2015, 04:41 PM
Don't tug on Superman's cape.

Here's how I could see a 7-man rotation shaking out.





Starters



Rotation



in blowouts


25
Fr
DThornton

20
Fr
Kennard






30
So
Allen





0
Fr
Robinson


35
Fr
Ingram

25
Jr
MJones

0
So
Obi


35
Sr
Jefferson





0
Sr
Marshall


30
Fr
Jeter





-
Rs
Vrankovic



Amile is the backup C to Chase, and Ingram is the backup PF to Amile. So, all minutes at the 4 and 5 will be taken up by those three players.

Do I actually think that all the other bigs (MP3, Obi, Vrank) will get shut out of minutes in competitive games?

No, but I wouldn't put it past Coach K. I think this 7-man rotation is more likely than a 9-man rotation for this upcoming season. (But in the minutes prediction thread, I went with an 8-man rotation.)

You're making trouble here. If Jefferson averages 35 mpg over any 5-game stretch next season, I'll eat ..... well, a large bowl of gumbo in your honor. With a muffuletta on the side.

Listen to Quants
06-01-2015, 11:32 PM
....
That leaves us 0 to 10 for Sean Obi.

-- Acknowledging that perhaps I sound like a broken record, Sean Obi was the third best defensive rebounder in the country as a freshman. Now, after a year of practice against future NBA players, it's just hard for me to accept anything less than 15 to 20 mpg for such an elite rebounding talent. Not saying it's necessarily going to happen that way, but it's hard to accept otherwise.
.....

There were some circumstances that helped Obi to the third best defensive rebounding numbers as a freshman. There were 6 high use players on Rice in 2013-14 season. One was Obi, there were 4 guards (tallest listed as 6' 3") The lone non-Obi 'big' man in the high use group was 6' 7", 215 lbs, listed as a Forward but pulled down 3.4 reb/game, barely ahead of the 5' 9" guard who got 3.3 r/g. I never saw them, I'm working of their web site, but it sounds like a Snow White rebounding situation. Little competition from teammates. If the dwarfs box out, Ms. White will collect a lot of defensive boards.

Kedsy
06-02-2015, 12:52 AM
There were some circumstances that helped Obi to the third best defensive rebounding numbers as a freshman. There were 6 high use players on Rice in 2013-14 season. One was Obi, there were 4 guards (tallest listed as 6' 3") The lone non-Obi 'big' man in the high use group was 6' 7", 215 lbs, listed as a Forward but pulled down 3.4 reb/game, barely ahead of the 5' 9" guard who got 3.3 r/g. I never saw them, I'm working of their web site, but it sounds like a Snow White rebounding situation. Little competition from teammates. If the dwarfs box out, Ms. White will collect a lot of defensive boards.

Well, I usually like and agree with your analyses, and in this instance I can't say for certain, but I suspect you're completely wrong about this. Or, put a nicer way, you may be severely underestimating what Sean Obi accomplished as a freshman.

For example, in 2014-15, Rice had pretty much the same rotation that they did in 2013-14 -- they added a 6'5 freshman who got just 3 rpg and replaced Obi with a 6'10, 260 guy, giving them once again four short guys plus a center getting most of the minutes. Except the 6'10, 260 guy who replaced Obi in the starting lineup was 234th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, rather than 3rd. So what happened to Snow White, just one year later, eh? I haven't done a thorough analysis, but I bet among mid-majors and low-majors there are plenty of teams that played one big guy and four little guys, and almost none of those big guys were top three in the nation in defensive rebounding. Or even close.

I have no idea how well Sean's rebounding will translate to his time at Duke, but as others have pointed out, it happens to be a skill that usually translates pretty well when kids transfer from low/mid-majors to high major. In other words, elite rebounders don't usually turn out to be patsies when they move up in competition level. So at this point, we have no reason to sell Sean short, especially based on incomplete assumptions.

Kedsy
06-02-2015, 01:28 AM
There were some circumstances that helped Obi to the third best defensive rebounding numbers as a freshman. There were 6 high use players on Rice in 2013-14 season. One was Obi, there were 4 guards (tallest listed as 6' 3") The lone non-Obi 'big' man in the high use group was 6' 7", 215 lbs, listed as a Forward but pulled down 3.4 reb/game, barely ahead of the 5' 9" guard who got 3.3 r/g. I never saw them, I'm working of their web site, but it sounds like a Snow White rebounding situation. Little competition from teammates. If the dwarfs box out, Ms. White will collect a lot of defensive boards.

Digging a little deeper, from 2013-14 to 2014-15, in its rotation Rice replaced two guards with two slightly taller guards and replaced Sean Obi with a guy who was pretty much the exact same size as Sean Obi. If Sean's rebounding prowess was primarily due to his "dwarf" teammates boxing out, you'd expect the team to defensively rebound the same or better in 2014-15 (since the overall team was the same or a little taller). That is not what happened, however. With Obi, Rice was 104th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (70.3%) but without Obi the team was 196th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (68.7%).

Drilling down the numbers, if you separate Rice's primary center from the rest of the team, in 2014-15 the center (a guy the same size as Obi) grabbed 3.6 defensive rebounds per game while the rest of the team got 19.6 drpg. In 2013-14, Obi snagged 6.8 defensive rebounds per game while the rest of the team got 17.8 drpg. Overall, Rice's 2013-14 team had 1.4 more drpg than the 2014-15 version despite the non-centers rebounding better in 2014-15. Please tell me if I'm mischaracterizing your theory, but if you were right I'd have expected the 2014-15 center to have managed better than basically half the defensive rebounds Sean Obi corralled.

Listen to Quants
06-02-2015, 03:11 PM
There were some circumstances that helped Obi to the third best defensive rebounding numbers as a freshman. There were 6 high use players on Rice in 2013-14 season. One was Obi, there were 4 guards (tallest listed as 6' 3") The lone non-Obi 'big' man in the high use group was 6' 7", 215 lbs, listed as a Forward but pulled down 3.4 reb/game, barely ahead of the 5' 9" guard who got 3.3 r/g. I never saw them, I'm working of their web site, but it sounds like a Snow White rebounding situation. Little competition from teammates. If the dwarfs box out, Ms. White will collect a lot of defensive boards.


Well, I usually like and agree with your analyses, and in this instance I can't say for certain, but I suspect you're completely wrong about this. Or, put a nicer way, you may be severely underestimating what Sean Obi accomplished as a freshman.

For example, in 2014-15, Rice had pretty much the same rotation that they did in 2013-14 -- they added a 6'5 freshman who got just 3 rpg and replaced Obi with a 6'10, 260 guy, giving them once again four short guys plus a center getting most of the minutes. Except the 6'10, 260 guy who replaced Obi in the starting lineup was 234th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, rather than 3rd. So what happened to Snow White, just one year later, eh? I haven't done a thorough analysis, but I bet among mid-majors and low-majors there are plenty of teams that played one big guy and four little guys, and almost none of those big guys were top three in the nation in defensive rebounding. Or even close.

I have no idea how well Sean's rebounding will translate to his time at Duke, but as others have pointed out, it happens to be a skill that usually translates pretty well when kids transfer from low/mid-majors to high major. In other words, elite rebounders don't usually turn out to be patsies when they move up in competition level. So at this point, we have no reason to sell Sean short, especially based on incomplete assumptions.


Digging a little deeper, from 2013-14 to 2014-15, in its rotation Rice replaced two guards with two slightly taller guards and replaced Sean Obi with a guy who was pretty much the exact same size as Sean Obi. If Sean's rebounding prowess was primarily due to his "dwarf" teammates boxing out, you'd expect the team to defensively rebound the same or better in 2014-15 (since the overall team was the same or a little taller). That is not what happened, however. With Obi, Rice was 104th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (70.3%) but without Obi the team was 196th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (68.7%).

Drilling down the numbers, if you separate Rice's primary center from the rest of the team, in 2014-15 the center (a guy the same size as Obi) grabbed 3.6 defensive rebounds per game while the rest of the team got 19.6 drpg. In 2013-14, Obi snagged 6.8 defensive rebounds per game while the rest of the team got 17.8 drpg. Overall, Rice's 2013-14 team had 1.4 more drpg than the 2014-15 version despite the non-centers rebounding better in 2014-15. Please tell me if I'm mischaracterizing your theory, but if you were right I'd have expected the 2014-15 center to have managed better than basically half the defensive rebounds Sean Obi corralled.


The fact that K went out and got him and his outstanding defensive rebounding numbers as a freshman, suggest, at a minimum, Obi will be a good/serviceable D.Rebounder like a lot of other centers in the ACC. I never meant to say he would be bad. The question those facts do not answer for me is, 'is he likely to attain the heights of the great D.Rebounders, like Mason Plumlee, Brian Zoubek.'

My point was that the circumstances that got him such great numbers as a freshman take a bit of the shine off. You point out that he looks like a far better D.Rebounder than the guy who replaced him at Rice and that's a good thing, but is it enough? Look, you are doing a better job than I was of filling in the important details, but I think trying to get it right is really difficult or impossible by this method (post-hoc analysis of circumstances). Did Rice play zone much either year? Did the same players become better rebounders with another years experience? Did the coaches stress boxing out more one year than another? Those and other modifiers make it too tough for me to be at all sure. I remained convinced that in some such circumstances a good rebounder can get truly great numbers and that may have happened for Obi at Rice.

I bolded an interesting point you make. Is the evidence of that translation of quality rebounding from low to high D1 very solid (analytic)?

I'd really like the corrected +/- number on rebounding (team rebounding when the player is in minus the team rebounding when player is out) corrected for the other players on the court. I don't know if that is available for NCAA players, I haven't seen it but haven't looked hard.

Kedsy
06-02-2015, 03:53 PM
I bolded an interesting point you make. Is the evidence of that translation of quality rebounding from low to high D1 very solid (analytic)?

I'd really like the corrected +/- number on rebounding (team rebounding when the player is in minus the team rebounding when player is out) corrected for the other players on the court. I don't know if that is available for NCAA players, I haven't seen it but haven't looked hard.

Yeah, I don't know. There seems to be plenty of anecdotal evidence that it translates (e.g., Arsalan Kazemi, who went from Rice to Oregon and maintained his high defensive rebounding percentage; Kenneth Faried, whose defensive rebounding prowess translated from Morehead State to the NBA), but I've never seen any rigorous quantitative analysis. My guess is there aren't too many data points. Nor have I seen the +/- rebounding stats you're seeking.

CDu
06-02-2015, 04:42 PM
Yeah, I don't know. There seems to be plenty of anecdotal evidence that it translates (e.g., Arsalan Kazemi, who went from Rice to Oregon and maintained his high defensive rebounding percentage; Kenneth Faried, whose defensive rebounding prowess translated from Morehead State to the NBA), but I've never seen any rigorous quantitative analysis. My guess is there aren't too many data points. Nor have I seen the +/- rebounding stats you're seeking.

The analytics guys all say that rebounding is one of the stats that translates the best across levels of play. Almost everything else takes a dip the higher the level of competition, but not rebounding. Probably because so much of the skill is related to positioning, effort, and toughness rather than strictly athleticism. Obviously there are limits (i.e., the 6'5", 210lb guy who was a dominant high school rebounder isn't necessarily going to see that translate to the NBA). But within reason, rebounding is one of those stats that carries over across different levels of D-1 and from D-1 to the NBA.

That's not to say that Obi is going to be a top-5 defensive rebounder in the nation again. But given that (a) he was a dominant rebounder as a freshman, (b) he showed enough promise that Coach K sought him out as a transfer student, and (c) he has had a year of practicing against Okafor and Plumlee regularly and is now physically/maturity-wise a junior suggest to me that Obi will be at least a solid contributor next year. I'm not expecting a ton of double-doubles, but I'll be quite surprised if he is not an extremely good rebounder and a regular member of the rotation.

NSDukeFan
06-02-2015, 05:05 PM
The analytics guys all say that rebounding is one of the stats that translates the best across levels of play. Almost everything else takes a dip the higher the level of competition, but not rebounding. Probably because so much of the skill is related to positioning, effort, and toughness rather than strictly athleticism. Obviously there are limits (i.e., the 6'5", 210lb guy who was a dominant high school rebounder isn't necessarily going to see that translate to the NBA). But within reason, rebounding is one of those stats that carries over across different levels of D-1 and from D-1 to the NBA.

That's not to say that Obi is going to be a top-5 defensive rebounder in the nation again. But given that (a) he was a dominant rebounder as a freshman, (b) he showed enough promise that Coach K sought him out as a transfer student, and (c) he has had a year of practicing against Okafor and Plumlee regularly and is now physically/maturity-wise a junior suggest to me that Obi will be at least a solid contributor next year. I'm not expecting a ton of double-doubles, but I'll be quite surprised if he is not an extremely good rebounder and a regular member of the rotation.

I agree that Obi should be a very good rebounder next year, but the question remains as to what his role will be next year? I certainly don't have a clue, but will continue to devote time thinking about it and reading posts from people having an opinion about whether Obi is:

1) the starter logging 25-30 minutes and being one of the leading defensive rebounders in the country?
2) the starter who is often replaced in small-ball lineups averaging 20ish minutes each game?
3) the platoon starter with Marshall or Chase who is the best defensive rebounder on the team, but doesn't offer as much in other areas (defensive rotations, rim protection, offensive production, leadership, intensity?)
4) rotation player behind Marshall and/or Chase?
5) spot minute contributor not ready to contribute as much as some combination of Marshall, Chase, Amile and/or Ingram at the 4/5 spots, depending on how big or small the team plays?

I would be surprised by number 5, but not shocked by any of the possibilities. I am also quite unsure about how much to expect from Marshall or Chase and think there is a wide range of possibilities. Should be a great offseason for speculation. I hope everyone has been training their posting muscles (board posting and not basketball posting up, as I doubt this board has much to offer the Duke team in the latter.)

flyingdutchdevil
06-02-2015, 05:18 PM
I agree that Obi should be a very good rebounder next year, but the question remains as to what his role will be next year? I certainly don't have a clue, but will continue to devote time thinking about it and reading posts from people having an opinion about whether Obi is:

1) the starter logging 25-30 minutes and being one of the leading defensive rebounders in the country?
2) the starter who is often replaced in small-ball lineups averaging 20ish minutes each game?
3) the platoon starter with Marshall or Chase who is the best defensive rebounder on the team, but doesn't offer as much in other areas (defensive rotations, rim protection, offensive production, leadership, intensity?)
4) rotation player behind Marshall and/or Chase?
5) spot minute contributor not ready to contribute as much as some combination of Marshall, Chase, Amile and/or Ingram at the 4/5 spots, depending on how big or small the team plays?

I would be surprised by number 5, but not shocked by any of the possibilities. I am also quite unsure about how much to expect from Marshall or Chase and think there is a wide range of possibilities. Should be a great offseason for speculation. I hope everyone has been training their posting muscles (board posting and not basketball posting up, as I doubt this board has much to offer the Duke team in the latter.)

This is a great post. And I agree with you. After Amile, I am lost on Sean Obi's role. My guess and hope is 2, because that means Coach K has the tools to form a big, strong, punishing team or a fast, nimble, crafty team. He has the personnel to do either, but the question remains as which one will pan out (or both!)

Newton_14
06-02-2015, 09:33 PM
I agree that Obi should be a very good rebounder next year, but the question remains as to what his role will be next year? I certainly don't have a clue, but will continue to devote time thinking about it and reading posts from people having an opinion about whether Obi is:

1) the starter logging 25-30 minutes and being one of the leading defensive rebounders in the country?
2) the starter who is often replaced in small-ball lineups averaging 20ish minutes each game?
3) the platoon starter with Marshall or Chase who is the best defensive rebounder on the team, but doesn't offer as much in other areas (defensive rotations, rim protection, offensive production, leadership, intensity?)
4) rotation player behind Marshall and/or Chase?
5) spot minute contributor not ready to contribute as much as some combination of Marshall, Chase, Amile and/or Ingram at the 4/5 spots, depending on how big or small the team plays?

I would be surprised by number 5, but not shocked by any of the possibilities. I am also quite unsure about how much to expect from Marshall or Chase and think there is a wide range of possibilities. Should be a great offseason for speculation. I hope everyone has been training their posting muscles (board posting and not basketball posting up, as I doubt this board has much to offer the Duke team in the latter.)

Great post. I am very unsure on both Obi and Jeter right now. And I am leaning more and more that Kennard is going to play his way onto the court, along with Allen, Ingram, and Jones. I just feel those guys are going to play a lot and that means Ingram at the 4 for several minutes a game further squeezing PT for the bigs. Amile is going to play. Period. That leaves Marshall, Jeter, Obi fighting for a smaller amount of minutes.

If Kennard isn't ready (not likely in my opinion) then we play bigger a little more often, but Ingram still moves to the 4 several minutes. Unless we are playing a team with giants, K will have full confidence in playing Amile at the 5 as many minutes as he can get away with.

BluDvlsN1
06-28-2015, 06:09 PM
The JBA on Twitter: "A little fun this morning after the workout! 💦.💦.💦.🐇. @GraysonJAllen http://t.co/w22PRqkb0K"

https://mobile.twitter.com/jaxbasketball/status/614118558050725889

NSDukeFan
06-28-2015, 08:12 PM
Brandon 16
Amile 12
Grayson 11
Derryck 10
Matt 10
Sean 8
Luke 4
Marshall 5
Chase 3
Total 79

FireOgilvie
06-28-2015, 08:58 PM
The JBA on Twitter: "A little fun this morning after the workout! 💦.💦.💦.🐇. @GraysonJAllen http://t.co/w22PRqkb0K"

https://mobile.twitter.com/jaxbasketball/status/614118558050725889

That's seriously amazing.


Brandon 16
Amile 12
Grayson 11
Derryck 10
Matt 10
Sean 8
Luke 4
Marshall 5
Chase 3
Total 79

This list really shows how up-in-the-air our rotation and minutes are for next year. I personally believe there's almost zero chance that Amile scores more points than Grayson or that Obi scores more than Kennard, but who knows.

BluDvlsN1
06-28-2015, 09:51 PM
Ben Simmons #1 recruit in the country

Derryck Thornton, breaks his legs,

Short but oh so sweet

https://vine.co/v/Olw3nV1J1YW

gumbomoop
06-28-2015, 11:25 PM
I'm thrilled Thornton is coming to Duke.

Simmons was easily -- easily -- the best 2015 player I saw in the several all-star games a few months back.

Even more impressive than Luke Kennard.

I'm certain Simmons will average more ppg for LSU than will Luke for Duke.

And although I cannot be certain, I am at least confident that there are not 10, much less 20, entering frosh across the nation more talented than Kennard, in terms of multi-skills, savvy, efficiency, effectiveness.

flyingdutchdevil
06-29-2015, 09:06 AM
Brandon 16
Amile 12
Grayson 11
Derryck 10
Matt 10
Sean 8
Luke 4
Marshall 5
Chase 3
Total 79

This is so tough. I agree with you that Ingram, Jefferson, Grayson, and Thornton will be our top scorers, but I'm struggling with a) what percentage of the points do these 4 players get and b) who do you rank the four players in terms of points scored?

Cook and the 3 freshman accounted for 72% of the scoring this year. Next year, I think the top four account for ~65% of the points, if not more. Given that I think we'll average 75 points or less, I think the top four account for ~49 points. So, the breakdown for me would go Ingram - 14, Grayson - 14 - Amile - 11, Derryck - 10. After that, I have no idea. Will Jones turn into a consistent 3pt shooter and add a drive to his game (maybe)? Can Sean score against ACC-caliber big men (we know he can rebound with them, but score? I'm not so sure)? Will Luke and Chase play substantial minutes to get any points (I have no idea)? Will Marshall add anything offensive to his game other than the alley-oop and the pump fake (I'm not betting on it)?

Lots of questions, few answers right now.

CameronBornAndBred
11-25-2015, 02:11 PM
Sean Obi:

It seems that most people on this thread seem to think that Sean has very limited offensive capability. However, when you look back at his year at Rice, he led the team in scoring and had very decent numbers:

Points/gym: 11.4
Points per 40 min: 17.2 puts

Everyone seems to agree that he has very good rebounding stats:

Reb/game: 9.3
Reb per 40 min: 14.1

So the real question is how much playing time is going to get. If he gets rotation minutes, his results from Rice suggests he will be scoring points. I, for one, think he will start.
I'm bored at work, so I'm having fun looking back in this prediction thread. A lot of the talk was about the optimism (I didn't post in the thread, but I shared in the high hopes) for Sean Obi. As JohnJ pointed out, he was Rice's number one producer. So...what's happened? He didn't lose athletic ability, but in the short time I've seen him on the court, he hasn't shown me that had much. BUT...he must have something (besides simply being big) to lead a team in scoring. Hell, if all it took was being big and no athleticism, then every Plumlee would have led the way from their freshmen years.

Anyway, we've now got a decent feel for this team, and how the coaching staff sees them. (They see basically 7-8 guys that are ready to help out, and the others aren't getting off the bench.) It's a fun thread to look back and compare predictions to reality...but Obi is the one that stands out most mysteriously to me.

JNort
04-01-2016, 11:48 AM
Season over and here was the actual:

Allen 22
Ingram 17
Kennard 12
Jones 11
Jefferson 10
Plumlee 8
Thornton 8
Jeter 2
Vrank 1
Obi 1

*rounded decimal scoring

CDu
04-01-2016, 11:58 AM
Season over and here was the actual:

Allen 22
Ingram 17
Kennard 12
Jones 11
Jefferson 10
Plumlee 8
Thornton 8
Jeter 2
Vrank 1
Obi 1

*rounded decimal scoring
To be appropriate, this needs to adjust for games played. This list suggests we scored 90+ ppg, which is obviously not true.

Had Jefferson played al season, the numbers for Plumlee and Jeter (if not others as well) would go down.

Indoor66
04-01-2016, 01:15 PM
To be appropriate, this needs to adjust for games played. This list suggests we scored 90+ ppg, which is obviously not true.

Had Jefferson played al season, the numbers for Plumlee and Jeter (if not others as well) would go down.

I didn't read it that way. I read it as averages per player - and it is accurate - as per the games ACTUALLY played. It is an individual performance list, not a team totals list. :rolleyes:

CDu
04-01-2016, 01:58 PM
I didn't read it that way. I read it as averages per player - and it is accurate - as per the games ACTUALLY played. It is an individual performance list, not a team totals list. :rolleyes:

While it is accurate in a per-game sense for each player in a vaccuum, it is not accurate in the spirit of the thread (where will the points come from). The entire discussion in the thread was how we were going to score enough points per game to be a good offensive team. Thus, the point was to try to figure out where, in each game, we'd get the scoring to average a certain number of points as a team.

In another thread, I'd probably agree with you. But for the purposes of the "where will the points come from" thread, individual per-game numbers that aren't adjusted for games played isn't quite what we want.

Saratoga2
04-01-2016, 02:56 PM
Next season if Grayson remains, we can expect him to duplicate his numbers. A combination of Amile and Bolden/ Chase should outpace what MP3/Chase could do. Harry is likely to be a big scorer and combined with Jason should surpass Brandon's very good numbers. Luke, Derryck, Frank and Matt should produce more than a thin group at guard could do this past season. We should have more rested players and be able to play uptempo and get more possessions. It should be fun to watch.

flyingdutchdevil
04-01-2016, 03:05 PM
Next season if Grayson remains, we can expect him to duplicate his numbers. A combination of Amile and Bolden/ Chase should outpace what MP3/Chase could do. Harry is likely to be a big scorer and combined with Jason should surpass Brandon's very good numbers. Luke, Derryck, Frank and Matt should produce more than a thin group at guard could do this past season. We should have more rested players and be able to play uptempo and get more possessions. It should be fun to watch.

No we can't. At all. Our offensive prowess next year - assuming Giles healthy, Ingram leaves, Allen stays, Bolden comes, no unexpected players leaving (a lot of 'ifs') - will be ridiculous. And, sadly, there is only 1 ball and 40 minutes in a game. Allen and Kennard are proven offensive commodities. Thornton will improve. Jefferson averaged around 10 points a game and we should expect him to average something similar. Tatum is an offensive juggernaut ala Parker, Okafor, and Ingram (although hopefully a better defender than those players). Jackson has major offensive chops. Giles is supposedly Anthony Davis 2.0 (when healthy. Although I guess like Davis, he is often injured :(). And Bolden, if he comes, has some great post moves. With all of this - not to mention that Allen loves to share the ball - I see Allen's points (both in absolute and per minute) to dip and assists (both absolute and per minute) to go up.

I do agree with you that our offense will be insane and will be crazy fun to watch (like last year). We'll have all types of offensive scorers (3pt shooters, drivers, mid-rangers, post-ups, offensive rebounders, dunkers...you name it). But the big question is defense. Can we play D? A healthy Amile should help, but our freshman are still going to be freshman. And that isn't a good thing on defense.

CDu
04-01-2016, 03:34 PM
No we can't. At all. Our offensive prowess next year - assuming Giles healthy, Ingram leaves, Allen stays, Bolden comes, no unexpected players leaving (a lot of 'ifs') - will be ridiculous. And, sadly, there is only 1 ball and 40 minutes in a game. Allen and Kennard are proven offensive commodities. Thornton will improve. Jefferson averaged around 10 points a game and we should expect him to average something similar. Tatum is an offensive juggernaut ala Parker, Okafor, and Ingram (although hopefully a better defender than those players). Jackson has major offensive chops. Giles is supposedly Anthony Davis 2.0 (when healthy. Although I guess like Davis, he is often injured :(). And Bolden, if he comes, has some great post moves. With all of this - not to mention that Allen loves to share the ball - I see Allen's points (both in absolute and per minute) to dip and assists (both absolute and per minute) to go up.

I do agree with you that our offense will be insane and will be crazy fun to watch (like last year). We'll have all types of offensive scorers (3pt shooters, drivers, mid-rangers, post-ups, offensive rebounders, dunkers...you name it). But the big question is defense. Can we play D? A healthy Amile should help, but our freshman are still going to be freshman. And that isn't a good thing on defense.

Yup, and this is exactly why presenting the per-game numbers irrespective of games played is bad form in a "how will the team get its scoring?" type of thread.

I can certainly believe that Allen will be every bit as efficient, if not moreso, next year. But there is no reason to assume that he will replicate his total production. We're going to be even more loaded offensively at every other spot next year (Jefferson and Giles are better than Plumlee offensively; Tatum is likely as good as Ingram offensively). That alone will cut into Allen's scoring opportunities. Plus, we'll be deeper than we were this year, which should cut into Allen's minutes.

I agree that I think the offense will look a lot like this year's offense, but hopefully even better. And I agree that the question will be defense. Hopefully a healthier Jefferson and a healthier Jones make a big difference, along with continued improvements from the returning guys. If so, we stand a very good chance of being better defensively as well.

JNort
04-01-2016, 04:59 PM
While it is accurate in a per-game sense for each player in a vaccuum, it is not accurate in the spirit of the thread (where will the points come from). The entire discussion in the thread was how we were going to score enough points per game to be a good offensive team. Thus, the point was to try to figure out where, in each game, we'd get the scoring to average a certain number of points as a team.

In another thread, I'd probably agree with you. But for the purposes of the "where will the points come from" thread, individual per-game numbers that aren't adjusted for games played isn't quite what we want.

So what are you saying? That we only count the games after Amile went down? Or the games where Amile played? Not sure it matters either way when the thread started it was assumed we had a healthy roster for the entire year which obviously wasn't the case. Do we need to factor a players injury in these preseason threads cause that would be impossible

JNort
04-01-2016, 05:02 PM
No we can't. At all. Our offensive prowess next year - assuming Giles healthy, Ingram leaves, Allen stays, Bolden comes, no unexpected players leaving (a lot of 'ifs') - will be ridiculous. And, sadly, there is only 1 ball and 40 minutes in a game. Allen and Kennard are proven offensive commodities. Thornton will improve. Jefferson averaged around 10 points a game and we should expect him to average something similar. Tatum is an offensive juggernaut ala Parker, Okafor, and Ingram (although hopefully a better defender than those players). Jackson has major offensive chops. Giles is supposedly Anthony Davis 2.0 (when healthy. Although I guess like Davis, he is often injured :(). And Bolden, if he comes, has some great post moves. With all of this - not to mention that Allen loves to share the ball - I see Allen's points (both in absolute and per minute) to dip and assists (both absolute and per minute) to go up.

I do agree with you that our offense will be insane and will be crazy fun to watch (like last year). We'll have all types of offensive scorers (3pt shooters, drivers, mid-rangers, post-ups, offensive rebounders, dunkers...you name it). But the big question is defense. Can we play D? A healthy Amile should help, but our freshman are still going to be freshman. And that isn't a good thing on defense.

I disagree I think we can definitely expect him to repeat those numbers or better. We will most definitely be exploring this in later threads, most likely either a "minutes discussion" or another "where will the points come from" type thread. I'll wait to discuss this there if and hopefully when we find out Grayson returns :D

CDu
04-02-2016, 10:12 AM
So what are you saying? That we only count the games after Amile went down? Or the games where Amile played? Not sure it matters either way when the thread started it was assumed we had a healthy roster for the entire year which obviously wasn't the case. Do we need to factor a players injury in these preseason threads cause that would be impossible

It is simple. Take the total points accumulated by each player, divide by total games played by the team (36). That gives the answer to where the points came from on this team.

CDu
04-02-2016, 10:18 AM
I disagree I think we can definitely expect him to repeat those numbers or better. We will most definitely be exploring this in later threads, most likely either a "minutes discussion" or another "where will the points come from" type thread. I'll wait to discuss this there if and hopefully when we find out Grayson returns :D

So which player isn't going to get his shots in order to allow Allen to get his? Giles? Tatum? Jackson? Allen is going to face a lot more competition for shots next year than he did this year with so many minutes played by role players in Plumlee, Jones, and Thornton. Next year we are adding a lot more offensive weapons. So either they aren't going to get their opportunities (both in minutes and shots) or Allen is going to see a reduction in attempts (both by virtue of fewer minutes and fewer attempts per minute).

We aren't saying that Allen will be less effective/good next year. In fact, I think Allen will be better next year. But I think his count stats may take a hit as a result of having a deeper and more talented offensive team around him.

JNort
04-02-2016, 11:01 AM
So which player isn't going to get his shots in order to allow Allen to get his? Giles? Tatum? Jackson? Allen is going to face a lot more competition for shots next year than he did this year with so many minutes played by role players in Plumlee, Jones, and Thornton. Next year we are adding a lot more offensive weapons. So either they aren't going to get their opportunities (both in minutes and shots) or Allen is going to see a reduction in attempts (both by virtue of fewer minutes and fewer attempts per minute).

We aren't saying that Allen will be less effective/good next year. In fact, I think Allen will be better next year. But I think his count stats may take a hit as a result of having a deeper and more talented offensive team around him.


O I get what yall are saying, I just think Grayson will still average 20+ ppg

Troublemaker
04-02-2016, 02:08 PM
So which player isn't going to get his shots in order to allow Allen to get his? Giles? Tatum? Jackson? Allen is going to face a lot more competition for shots next year than he did this year with so many minutes played by role players in Plumlee, Jones, and Thornton. Next year we are adding a lot more offensive weapons. So either they aren't going to get their opportunities (both in minutes and shots) or Allen is going to see a reduction in attempts (both by virtue of fewer minutes and fewer attempts per minute).

We aren't saying that Allen will be less effective/good next year. In fact, I think Allen will be better next year. But I think his count stats may take a hit as a result of having a deeper and more talented offensive team around him.

Yep, completely agree with this.

Also, I think there's a decent chance Grayson will be the main facilitator of the offense next season (in a timeshare with others in that role.) Nobody on the team will be "THE point guard" but Grayson is my bet to lead the team in assists again next season. So, in that role, I think he will pick his spots to score a bit more and find ways to distribute to the three hungry, hungry freshmen scorers of Tatum, Giles, and Jackson and one hungry, hungry sophomore scorer in Kennard. All for team chemistry. Because if Grayson returns to Duke, it'll be in large part to win a second national championship, to do what Laettner, Hurley, Hill, etc did. And he'll possibly be a tri-captain with Amile and Matt, and in this leadership position and with that stated goal of winning Ring #2, he needs to be mindful of team chemistry and keeping his teammates well-fed. Because we'll have some hungry, hungry scorers on the team next season, looking to make their mark on college basketball like Grayson already did this past season. Grayson will keep them well fed. Leaders can eat last.