Is Duke football showing signs of life?

[Bob Green]

DBR asks the question and then concludes that, yes, progress is being made. Not as fast as we would like but nevertheless, progress is ongoing. I agree with DBR. While the loss to Navy was agonizing, at least we were in the game down to the last play. We are now 1-3 for the season, but let's take a look at the three losses:

1. UConn - we are guilty of underestimating the Huskies. UConn is now 4-0 after solidly drubbing Pittsburgh on Saturday.
2. Virginia - a team that has owned Duke recently and is currently 3-1 after beating Georgia Tech on Saturday. Yes, Virginia lost ugly at Wyoming, but they've now performed solidly for three straight Saturdays.
3. Navy - a disappointing loss however you slice it, but a game Duke was in to the final play. We let a victory slip through our fingers for sure.

So, what are our options? We could hang our heads and quit. Or, we can put the tough loss behind us and prepare for Miami. I believe in the second option. With the proper attitude, preparation, and a little luck (we all deserve a little luck), three or four more victories this year are achievable!

Next play - Go Duke! Beat Miami!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

So, what are our options? We could hang our heads and quit. Or, we can put the tough loss behind us and prepare for Miami. I believe in the second option. With the proper attitude, preparation, and a little luck (we all deserve a little luck), three or four more victories this year are achievable!

Next play - Go Duke! Beat Miami!

What do we do? We strap on our chin straps and get back to work Monday morning, that's what we do. We build on what we've done well and we work on fixing what went wrong. Other than quitting, there is no other choice.

Go Duke! Beat Miami!

[Troublemaker]

Duke needs to win a second game this season. Go 1-11 and all this talk of progress is just talk, imo.

[Devilsfan]

scored 43 points in a game (36 in the first half!!!)? I don't remember. Probably when some "Ol' Ball Coach" was at the helm. This is really something to build on. The offensive coordinator should be commended! We are playing a heck of a lot better. Go Devils!

[4decadedukie]

Bob and Ozzie = Right on Target

[OrangeDevil]

"Is Duke Football showing signs of life?" The DBR moderators and Bob Green offer hopeful, optimistic words of encouragement based on previous performance(s). I certainly hope they're right and that the team can string together several solid efforts resulting in wins. But I am much less sanguine about what lies ahead. While Football has not flat lined, the pulse is erratic and the patient is anemic, badly in need of an iron supplement. If the condition persists it might require a blood transfusion and replacing the physician.

Despite the offensive explosion, I was not especially encouraged by yesterday's game. I was heartbroken. That game was winnable; indeed, it seemed won until the 4th quarter when the offense stopped being offensive and the defense collapsed. Perhaps, as Bob suggests, there was something there to build on, but what I see is not very solid and the fundamental problems may be readily exposed (again) in the next several weeks. Duke remains an inconsistent football team as it heads into the teeth of the schedule and faces a series of solid teams most presenting greater athleticism and vastly superior depth (a core deficiency for Duke). Miami, Wake, VT, FSU, Clemson. Given what we've witnessed to date, can we realistically believe that Duke has what it takes to come away from any of these on top? The only remaining possibles, to my way of thinking, are GT and the pale blues, and even these appear to be long shots as well. I'm afraid that despite improvement in some areas, 1-11 remains a real possibility.

I don't wish to revisit the various issues that have bedeviled Duke Football. Most of those concerns, complaints, and criticisms that have been lodged on this board have some measure of validity. But it has come down to wins and given the difficulty of the remaining schedule, I just don't see many possibilities. More than ever, I hope I'm dead wrong in this dismal prognosis.

On a nostalgic note, yesterday's game made me strangely yearn for the days of the Mike McGee teams. Yes, I know, it could be boring as hell, but it was physical and almost always competitive. Opposing teams could not announce running plays and then line up and run it down Duke's throat.

Finally, on a decidedly more hopeful note, a Basketball prediction made without inside information or hard evidence, just a gut feeling: if we get either Monroe or Williams, all three (Czyz first) will fall our way.

[devilirium]

Actually, we scored 34 pts vs Wake Forest in the 1ST QUARTER in '99 under Carl Franks. We had 41 at the half. Predictably we had to hang onto win 48-35. :O)

[jimsumner]

"When was the last time a Duke football team...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

scored 43 points in a game?"

Uh, five games ago. Lost that one, also.

[bjornolf]

The way Duke has played offense the last few games, and assuming they continue to develop, and the way the Fighting Irish have NOT played offense this year, does anybody think we have a legit shot at hanging one on ND later this year, or at least keeping it close? Even if they are having a down year, that would be a signature win for both Duke and Roof.

What do ya'll think? Am I just still hung over from the first win?

[Highlander]

The way Duke has played offense the last few games, and assuming they continue to develop, and the way the Fighting Irish have NOT played offense this year, does anybody think we have a legit shot at hanging one on ND later this year, or at least keeping it close? Even if they are having a down year, that would be a signature win for both Duke and Roof.

What do ya'll think? Am I just still hung over from the first win?

I mentioned this to a friend on the way into work this morning. If (and that's a big IF) Duke were to beat Notre Dame, two things would undoubtedly happen:
1) Weis would be fired. If he isn't already on his way out, losing to Duke in football would be the nail in the coffin for any team who expects to contend for a national championship.
2) Roof would get an extension at the end of the season. Much like John Bunting's win over Miami kept him at UNC probably a year or two longer than he would have been otherwise, a signature win like this would buy time for Roof, be that good or bad depending on your view of Roof.

I'm not sure how you could see a win over ND as anything other than good for Duke, unless you're not a Roof fan.

The fact that we're even talking about it to me shows the football team has improved.

[6th Man]

I think Duke is FINALLY showing signs.....it's much better to have a heartbreaking loss than to get beat 42-7. It's great to see the offense finally do something. It's great to be competitive with some teams. Now we just need to figure out how to win.....and we will.

My only frustration comes from the kicking. Missing extra points is just not acceptable no matter who you are. I knew it was bad when we had a first and goal at the 9 at the beginning of the fourth quarter and we miss a 30 yard field goal. That was probably a game winning drive to put the game away and we came away with 0. No matter who you are, it's hard to win if you can't kick extra points. My hat is off to the walk-on for coming in and making a few. When Surgan signed at Duke and he was the 4th rated kicker, it made me wonder why he picked the Devils. He has me thinking now that he maybe knew he had some confidence problems in the heat of the battle. I saw where Florida wanted him. Those fans may have fed him to some real Gators with the level expected from their team.

Anyway, I am excited about the 43 points and the fact that we aren't getting blown out of the water. The improvement hasn't been a sprint, but at least there are signs! GO DUKE, shock the world and beat Miami!

[SoCalDukeFan]

We also lost winnable games last year - Wake Forest and UNC-CH for example.

I think that there is life in Duke football. The kicking game is pathetic and will be improved upon. We have some guys who can certainly play big time college football. We do make too many mistakes.

I am concerned that we lose too many games that could go either way. I know that Northwestern was one of those and we won. I had hoped that the Northwestern game would start a streak of winning those games, guess I was wrong.

We have winnable games on the schedule. We could upset someone.

IMHO Roof has shown he can recruit talent to Duke. He still needs to show that he can get the most out of the talent and that he can coach in game situations.

SoCal

[Wander]

The way Duke has played offense the last few games, and assuming they continue to develop, and the way the Fighting Irish have NOT played offense this year, does anybody think we have a legit shot at hanging one on ND later this year, or at least keeping it close? Even if they are having a down year, that would be a signature win for both Duke and Roof.

What do ya'll think? Am I just still hung over from the first win?

At the beginning of the year, people would joke around about Duke beating Notre Dame, even though it would obviously be an upset.

It would still be an upset. The difference is, it's gone from about a 1 in 400 chance to about a 1 in 4 chance. Actually, I know non-Duke fans who honestly believe we have a better team than Notre Dame. I don't know about that, but we certainly have a better passing game than ND, and we have a shot at beating them.

[Patrick Yates]

I think Duke loses the ND game, but I grant that the upset (and it will be nothing else) is more possible now than prior to the season.

However, I do not think Duke brings to the table what the teams that defeated ND brought to the table. GT and PSU have very good defenses. So does Michigan. Don't Laugh. Given Michigan's personell, they are only susceptable to one type of O, that being the Spread O. UM shut down ND and a quality PSU offense this year. So, ND has faced 3 quality D's this year. MSU is kind of an unknown, but ND did score 2 touchdowns.

Duke, for all the purported progress, is shakey, at best, on D. ND has a young O, and a weak O line. This means no rushing yards, and no time for Clausen to throw. I do not know if Duke can pressure the QB to the same extent as ND's previous opponents. Indeed, this is what the game comes down to. If we can D up, we have a chance to win.

ND is weak on O, but improving. Baptism by fire, etc etc. They will be better when we play them. So too will our D.

Our O will be fine. I predict a shootout.

However, one thing will not be in Duke's favor. Say what you will to the otherwise, EVERY D-1a we play over looks Duke. They see us as doormats. ND is going to struggle this year. No matter how bad it gets, ND will look at us as a winnable game. The players, and fans, will be jacked up when we come to town in a manner not seen outside a basketball arena. I think Duke does a good job of ambushing the opponents who look past us (for at least a half). Unfortunately, I do not think ND will be looking past Duke. As of now, they may have our visit circled on the schedule.

Patrick Yates

[JasonEvans]

Duke is actually ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the Sagarin rankings this week.

You may now pick your jaw up off the floor.

--Jason "I am sure that has happened before... maybe" Evans

[Wander]

However, I do not think Duke brings to the table what the teams that defeated ND brought to the table. GT and PSU have very good defenses. So does Michigan. Don't Laugh. Given Michigan's personell, they are only susceptable to one type of O, that being the Spread O. UM shut down ND and a quality PSU offense this year. So, ND has faced 3 quality D's this year. MSU is kind of an unknown, but ND did score 2 touchdowns.

What makes you think Georgia Tech has a "very good defense?"

[MulletMan]

What makes you think Georgia Tech has a "very good defense?"

Or Penn State a "quality offense" for that matter?

[Clipsfan]

Duke is actually ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the Sagarin rankings this week.

You may now pick your jaw up off the floor.

--Jason "I am sure that has happened before... maybe" Evans

And could very possibly fall much farther. It is very likely that they will start the season out 0-8, given that their next 4 opponents are Purdue, UCLA, BC and USC.

[arnie]

I think the next three weeks tell us if we have made progress. Making it a game at Miami, not getting blown away by VA Tech and winning the Wake Forest game would be signs of real progress. Remember that we have lost close games in most seasons including last year; therefore, losing a close game against a weak to middle of the road opponent is not worth celebrating.

I do agree that the talent level seems up a bit. We shall see!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Say what you will to the otherwise, EVERY D-1a we play over looks Duke. They see us as doormats.

I'll bet you a 9F that Miami does NOT overlook us this week. We almost beat them last year and they got off to a rocky start. This makes upsetting them much MUCH tougher.

[JDSBlueDevl]

Regarding Pitt, Pitt is bad. Pitt is VERY bad. That drubbing by UConn a week after UConn by all rights should have lost to Temple is more indicative of how bad Pitt is. The Pitt fans are just waking up to this. They have no QB. Their mental midget of a coach sticks with underperforming upperclassmen to the exclusion of more talented true freshmen. The OLine sucks. The DLine is banged up. There is no replacement for Darrelle Revis at cornerback. Kevan Smith is a horrible QB. Pat Bostick is probably not as talented as Thad Lewis and may have mental issues.

Oh, and did I mention the coach is Dave Wannstedt?

[mapei]

My only frustration comes from the kicking. Missing extra points is just not acceptable no matter who you are. I knew it was bad when we had a first and goal at the 9 at the beginning of the fourth quarter and we miss a 30 yard field goal.

I just looked at the stats on placekicking to see how bad it really is. What I learned is that, until the 2006 season, Duke's kicking was more or less as good as everybody else's. But last year and continuing into this, it has taken a dramatic nosedive:

Duke PAT kicks
2007 (so far): 7-9 (78%)
2006: 15-20 (75%)
2005: 20-21 (95%)
2004: 18-19 (95%)
2003: 20-22 (91%)

Opponents' PAT kicks
2007: 12-13 (92%)
2006: 50-53 (94%)
2005: 54-54 (100%)
2004: 34-37 (92%)
2003: 41-42 (98%)

Duke FG attempts
2007: 1-5 (20%)
2006: 4-11 (36%)
2005: 7-10 (70%)
2004: 13-19 (68%)
2003: 13-21 (62%)

Opponents' FG attempts
2007: 7-10 (70%)
2006: 10-15 (67%)
2005: 10-15 (67%)
2004: 22-26 (85%)
2003: 14-17 (82%)

That is a huge dropoff in performance, and a huge liability compared to other teams.

[jimsumner]

"What I learned is that, until the 2006 season, Duke's kicking was more or less as good as everybody else's."

This is one of the things that makes this so frustrating. Until recently Duke had pretty good--sometimes real good-place-kicking. Sims Lenhardt was only a few years ago and he was a stud. Vince Fusco, Randy Gardner, Scott McKinney, Doug Peterson, Tom Cochrane.

And the punters. Brian "Boomer" Morton. Averaged 45.2 yards per kick one season. Morton and Lenhardt as a tandem. Blessed.

[Bluedawg]

Given what we've witnessed to date, can we realistically believe that Duke has what it takes to come away from any of these on top?

...Yes....

[fuse]

All I ask from Duke football is to be competitive game in, game out, with the expectation that Duke overall should be a consistent 5-6 or 6-5 over a season.

While my expectations may be high, Duke is now hanging with all its opponents this season (UConn the lone exception).

I see this as a positive first step towards realizing results where Duke is in every game and has a realistic opportunity to approach a .500 season consistently.

I can't imagine anyone is more frustrated than the team itself, let's go out and show our support against Wake. Go Duke!

[Bluedawg]

Miami was the first game where i didn't pick Duke to win in my WRAL poll, and with 3 minutes left they were only 3 points down. If they had gotten that final 4th down conversion they may have had another W.

They have been in all of the games, the wop-sided UConn score was not an indication of the game. it was some 4th qrt, last 5 minutes problems.

I think each games show the maturation of this team and at some point an explosion will occur when it all comes together.

[wilson]

I think each games show the maturation of this team and at some point an explosion will occur when it all comes together.

Once again, I agree. I'm reminded of the game where we absolutely hammered GA Tech in 2003, just a couple of contests into the Roof regime.
We also beat kuralonna that year (for the only time in about the past 2 decades).
I could definitely deal with such a scenario this season.

[arnie]

I think we can beat Wake, the holes and possibly one other team. But this needs to happen (at least a couple more wins), 1-11 doesn't work, no matter the perceived progress. Also, recognize that we could easily be 0-5 at his point if interference is called against us in the Northwestern final minute.

[mapei]

Unfortunately, losing close may be for Duke what victories are for other teams. I wish it weren't the case, but that's where we are in terms of feeling good about the team or not.

[OrangeDevil]

In an earlier posting I suggested the paucity of realistic opportunities for Duke to win again. Bluedawg succinctly opined that there are realistic opportunities ahead. In some ways, Wake would seem to be one. The Devils will not be outmatched athletically or physically and in several areas have better talent. The real problem, in my view, is that the Deacs manifest, in spades, the very thing that seems to plague Duke--consistent execution.

If our guys can protect Lewis and turn Wake over a few times, we came come away with a W.

I hope Bluedawg has the opportunity to say "I told you so!"

[Highlander]

I think the next three weeks tell us if we have made progress. Making it a game at Miami, not getting blown away by VA Tech and winning the Wake Forest game would be signs of real progress.

One down, two to go :)

VTech sure didn't look like world beaters against UNC, and that was at home. Both Wake and VT will be tough games for sure, but I believe we can make both of them interesting the way we're playing right now...

[wilson]

One down, two to go :)

VTech sure didn't look like world beaters against UNC, and that was at home. Both Wake and VT will be tough games for sure, but I believe we can make both of them interesting the way we're playing right now...

FWIW, I think we match up reasonably well against VA Tech (at least by our standards). Their defense is stout, but our offense has definitely been our stronger side of the ball (even the ground game acquitted itself rather nicely against an excellent run-stopping unit in Miami). Conversely, Tech's offense has struggled all year, meaning that perhaps our unit can gain some traction against them (we didn't look terrible on D last week either).

*Sixth man!*

[cspan37421]

Duke football is showing signs of life, yet other ACC programs are worsening, at the same time. We would not be losing by 5 in 2006 and 10 in 2007 to USC or LSU, but 5-10+ years ago, that's the level where Miami football was. But no longer.

I live in SEC country, and do not care a whit for SEC teams, but there is no denying that they are the dominant major sports conference. Heck even Kentucky is what, 5-0 in football?! The ACC made a Faustian bargain by expanding.

[arnie]

I agree, now we need to win one - especially since its all ACC games + Notre Dame from here. Despite comments about our difficult schedule - this year may turn out to be our easiest schedule in years past and years to come. Since we don't play BC; I don't think we will play a top 10 or 15 team all year.

[throatybeard]

The ACC made a Faustian bargain by expanding.

Everyone says this, but it's illogical. VT won the conference their first year, and went 11-2 last year. Miami's still decent. BC is in the top 10 this year.

Not expanding would have left all three of those teams in another conference. So we'd have the nearly perpetual dead wood of Duke and UNC and a struggling State team. Basically 6 viable teams instead of 9. And as good as WFU can be at times, they're up and down.

There's a difference between "BC/VT/Miami aren't as great as they were 2000-2003" (true) and "ha ha, expansion backfired in football." The first is defensible; the second is not.

[Bob Green]

I was just perusing the ACC Stats and Duke's passing game is indeed impressive. Specifically:

Eron Riley is leading the league in receiving yards.
Thad Lewis has the 3rd best QB rating.
Thad Lewis is #2 in passing yards.
Thad Lewis is tied for #2 in TD passes thrown.
Jomar Wright is 9th in receiving yards.
Raphael Chestnut is 19th in receiving yards.

However, Thad Lewis has been sacked 19 times and our running game needs to improve. This indicates we still have issues along the offensive line. Hopefully, the OL will step up their play and we will rack up some victories.

[Bluedawg]

I was just perusing the ACC Stats and Duke's passing game is indeed impressive. Specifically:

Eron Riley is leading the league in receiving yards.
Thad Lewis has the 3rd best QB rating.
Thad Lewis is #2 in passing yards.
Thad Lewis is tied for #2 in TD passes thrown.
Jomar Wright is 9th in receiving yards.
Raphael Chestnut is 19th in receiving yards.

However, Thad Lewis has been sacked 19 times and our running game needs to improve. This indicates we still have issues along the offensive line. Hopefully, the OL will step up their play and we will rack up some victories.

What this shows is that the offense can score points and the reason we are not 5-0 is that the defense can't stop anyone.

I keep going back to the old adage, Offense sells tickets, Defense wins ballgames."

[Bluedawg]

In an earlier posting I suggested the paucity of realistic opportunities for Duke to win again. Bluedawg succinctly opined that there are realistic opportunities ahead. In some ways, Wake would seem to be one. The Devils will not be outmatched athletically or physically and in several areas have better talent. The real problem, in my view, is that the Deacs manifest, in spades, the very thing that seems to plague Duke--consistent execution.

If our guys can protect Lewis and turn Wake over a few times, we came come away with a W.

I hope Bluedawg has the opportunity to say "I told you so!"

I expect to, and... with your permission... I'll do it here first.

[Duvall]

There's a difference between "BC/VT/Miami aren't as great as they were 2000-2003" (true) and "ha ha, expansion backfired in football." The first is defensible; the second is not.

What are the tangible benefits that have been produced by expansion, either for Duke or the ACC? I don't see them.

[throatybeard]

What are the tangible benefits that have been produced by expansion, either for Duke or the ACC? I don't see them.

We're currently only the 5th or 6th best FB conference. Without the newbies, we'd be even worse. Basically, we'd be completely irrelevant in FB.

I'm not saying I'm a fan of expansion. But a lot of the expansion critics are using illogical arguments. Essentially, they ignore that in a counterfactual 9-school ACC in 2005-, you'd only have the previous 9 schools.

[cspan37421]

Everyone says this, but it's illogical. ...

There's a difference between "BC/VT/Miami aren't as great as they were 2000-2003" (true) and "ha ha, expansion backfired in football." The first is defensible; the second is not.

Not everyone says it. And it is just my opinion, based on a set of criteria probably unique to me, or nearly so. And I'm not laughing. You assume so much about my reasoning and attitude, yet know little.

[Bluedawg]

Originally Posted by OrangeDevil
Given what we've witnessed to date, can we realistically believe that Duke has what it takes to come away from any of these on top?


...Yes....

i'll even go a bit further and say that, with a little "D", Duke should be 5-0 at this moment.

[dukemomLA]

Obviously our first need is for a reliable kicker. (...hmmmm...could be steal someone from the soccer team?) And yes, D needs some help, along with the Offensive Line.

I think Coach Roof is a rather good recruiter, and an impressive practice coach, but....perhaps he should rely on (or find) interesting Defensive and Offensive Coordinators for game situations. Just a thought, IMHO