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uh_no
04-27-2015, 06:52 PM
Do we have one yet? If not, I'm surprised! Well, now the team is set, time to kick it off!

Let me see if I can even figure out who is ON the team

Marshall
Amile
Grayson
Matt

Sean

Brandon
Derryck
Vrankovic
Chase
Luke


Jeez...that's a lot people....

What I believe:
We know pretty well the returners are going to be in the rotation....but who else?

I feel like Derryck has to start at PG. Because who else is there? Grayson's a 2 in my book for now.

I can't imagine Chase or Brandon NOT being in the starting lineup. So that makes 7....the question then becomes

1) What does Sean bring to the table? K has nailed transfers of late. Looking forward to seeing him in action
2) Is Luke good enough to get into the rotation? Yeah he's a top 25 recruit...but the wring is looking awfully crowded.
3) Is Vrankovic ready to contribute? He's tall, yeah, but being that tall and still a 3 star...he's probably going to be raw.

So Lineup Time:
Derryck
grayson
matt
chase
brandon

amile sean and marshall see the minutes, as we're thin at guard, and we go bigger to rotate the guards out


What else:
There's no way we're going to start all our captains. K loves seniors...but i can't imagine marshall, amile and matt starting. I don't think there's enough offensive firepower there.

Troublemaker
04-27-2015, 07:00 PM
Last year's musings, in case people want a walk down memory lane: http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33629-Musings-Of-2014-15-Starters-amp-Rotation-Players

uh_no
04-27-2015, 07:04 PM
Last year's musings, in case people want a walk down memory lane: http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33629-Musings-Of-2014-15-Starters-amp-Rotation-Players

Not in that thread, but I was adamant that Quinn wouldn't start and skeptical that he would have a major breakthrough.

Boy was I wrong.

Here's to Quinn!

I'm probably just as wrong with my breakdown here....Vrankovic will probably lead this team, with amile becoming a double double machine.

duke09hms
04-27-2015, 07:04 PM
I'd imagine Derryck and Brandon are nailed on starters. Don't let recency bias color your perception of Grayson. Could easily see Matt starting over him for experience and lockdown D. Amile is also more likely a starter than Chase.

I'd guess:
PG: Derryck
Wing: Brandon and Matt/Grayson
Post: Amile and Sean/Jeter/Marshall

If we go small, I can easily see us going:
Derryck, Matt, Grayson, Brandon, Amile

But I don't know if Brandon has the strength or weight to guard other posts. Not everyone is a warrior from day one like Kyle.

uh_no
04-27-2015, 07:09 PM
I'd imagine Derryck and Brandon are nailed on starters. Don't let recency bias color your perception of Grayson. Could easily see Matt starting over him for experience and lockdown D. Amile is also more likely a starter than Chase.

I'd guess:
PG: Derryck
Wing: Brandon and Matt/Grayson
Post: Amile and Sean/Jeter/Marshall

If we go small, I can easily see us going:
Derryck, Matt, Grayson, Brandon, Amile

But I don't know if Brandon has the strength or weight to guard other posts. Not everyone is a warrior from day one like Kyle.

I had initially slotted grayson out in favor off matt (then chase/brandon/amile)...I don't feel that that's enough "guard" though. K loves what grayson brings, and that's not going to change...and grayson knows what it's like to be aggressive and confident on the biggest stage. On the flip side, maybe he stays that guy off the bench. I just am unsure of matt's potency offensively at the 2 (D is no problem)


I would also be very surprised if chase didn't start. Unless amile pulls a quinn, he has yet to show much offensive ability, though he is staunch on the other end (duhhhh). I could agree, perhaps, that it's amile's spot to lose. If he steps up his game on the glamorous end, he's in. If not? Chase.

ACCBBallFan
04-27-2015, 07:11 PM
I see the tri-captains and the two most recent recruits starting, though that will vary by opponent.

Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard bring mega Offensive spark off the bench.

Don't know enough about Sean Obi or Chase Jeter but minutes to be had backing up MP3 and Amile.

Thornton / Grayson

Jones / Grayson

Ingram / Kennard

Jefferson / Jeter

MP3 / Obi

If coach K chooses, he can have two platoons having Matt on one squad and Amile on the other for Defense and also balancing Grayson and Luke as instant Offensive, and Amile/MP3 for experience, with either Luke or Grayson backing up Thornton.

Thornton/Kennard
Allen
Ingram
Jefferson
Obi

Thornton/Allen
Jones
Kennard
Jeter
MP3

Also has the length and athleticism to play some Jim Boeheim zone on occasion, full court press and run the court.

GGLC
04-27-2015, 07:13 PM
I will be very surprised if Chase starts.

TheBrianZoubekExperience
04-27-2015, 07:25 PM
I can see it going a lot of ways but by the end of the year, I would predict:

Thornton
Kennard
Ingram
Chase
Jefferson

Grayson and Jones get heavy minutes off the bench and we slide Ingram to the 4 at times with Jefferson.

MP3 will get some minutes and maybe Obi. Vrankovic redshirts or doesn't play.

I could see Chase not having nearly the impact I am hoping for and getting minimal minutes.

sagegrouse
04-27-2015, 07:29 PM
Ah kin play this here game:

Lessee....


Brandon Ingram will start.

Matt Jones is the only returning starter. Coach K wants him on the court -- that won't change.

Grayson is gonna play -- a lot. I expect he will start.

Derryck Thornton or Luke Kennard get the nod for the starting lineup.

Now there's a logjam for the fifth spot: Chase, Amile, Marshall or Sean.

There are obvious alternatives:


Ingram starts under any scenario.

Maybe two bigs? That would be Chase and Mr. X. Gotta be Jeter -- the other guys aren't scorers, and we ain't starting two big men without getting some points from them.

I think Grayson is a lottery pick next year and will easily start for Duke. He is the scrappiest guy on the court, and he is also the most athletic.

That makes Derryck Thornton the fifth starter.

Matt gets a lot of minutes but has to earn his starting position later in the season.

Luke gets a lot of burn as well.

All of the bigs play, except for Big Vrank, who seems likely to redshirt.



Pretty much sums up my views, and remember -- I stayed at a Drury Inn in Indianapolis this month and know everything there is to know about hoops.

mattman91
04-27-2015, 07:39 PM
Let the Rosterbation begin.

dukelifer
04-27-2015, 07:41 PM
I see the tri-captains and the two most recent recruits starting, though that will vary by opponent.

Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard bring mega Offensive spark off the bench.

Don't know enough about Sean Obi or Chase Jeter but minutes to be had backing up MP3 and Amile.

Thornton / Grayson

Jones / Grayson

Ingram / Kennard

Jefferson / Jeter

MP3 / Obi

If coach K chooses, he can have two platoons having Matt on one squad and Amile on the other for Defense and also balancing Grayson and Luke as instant Offensive, and Amile/MP3 for experience, with either Luke or Grayson backing up Thornton.

Thornton/Kennard
Allen
Ingram
Jefferson
Obi

Thornton/Allen
Jones
Kennard
Jeter
MP3

Also has the length and athleticism to play some Jim Boeheim zone on occasion, full court press and run the court.
My guess

Ingram starts- too much talent
Thornton starts- need a real point guard to run the show-
Grayson Starts but will be challenged by Kennard - interchangeable
Matt Starts - because he knows how to play D and can defend lots of positions.
Obi Starts - because he takes up a ton of space but Amile is certainly possible. This position is less critical as Duke will play many smaller lineups.

But there are lots of combinations as noted above.

Henderson
04-27-2015, 07:43 PM
All of the bigs play, except for Big Vrank, who seems likely to redshirt.


You only referred to him as Big Vrank to avoid paying royalties to OPK on "Vrank the Tank." :D

GGLC
04-27-2015, 07:49 PM
I can see it going a lot of ways but by the end of the year, I would predict:

Thornton
Kennard
Ingram
Chase
Jefferson

Grayson and Jones get heavy minutes off the bench and we slide Ingram to the 4 at times with Jefferson.

MP3 will get some minutes and maybe Obi. Vrankovic redshirts or doesn't play.

I could see Chase not having nearly the impact I am hoping for and getting minimal minutes.

Wow, people are freshman-happy. I will predict that either Grayson or Matt definitely starts and that Marshall gets serious starter consideration as well.

mr. synellinden
04-27-2015, 07:52 PM
I will be very surprised if Chase starts.

I agree with this.

I believe Obi will start at C because we need rebounding and he might lead the ACC in per minute rebounds next year.

I believe Thornton is our starting PG.

I believe Ingram is talented enough to be one of our wings and will start at SF.

I believe Matt was a starter on a national championship team that had three first round picks and Grayson on it. He is our best perimeter defender and will start SG. I could see Grayson getting some of the starts at SG if he plays like he did three weeks ago.

I believe the last spot will be between Grayson and Amile and may depend upon match ups and whether Ingram can play a kind of hybrid stretch 4 role. But we'll need Grayson because of his outside shooting so I'm predicting a lot of 3 guards with Matt guarding SF and Ingram guarding PF.

So:

Obi
Ingram
Jones
Thornton
Allen

Kennard
Plumlee
Jefferson

I think that's the likely 8 man rotation. I think Jeter will see limited minutes kind of like Grayson did early on - and then as the season goes on may take some or most of Plumlee's minutes when he gets used to the speed of the college game.

dukelifer
04-27-2015, 07:53 PM
Wow, people are freshman-happy. I will predict that either Grayson or Matt definitely starts and that Marshall gets serious starter consideration as well.

He will be the age when a Plumlee blooms.

mattman91
04-27-2015, 07:55 PM
From a UK thread...


"Think about I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.s lineup next year.

Derryck Thornton
Luke Kennard
Brandon Ingram
Sean Obi
Chase Jeter

Then they'll have Plumlee, Jefferson, Allen, and Jones off the bench. as bad as I hate to say it. That's a pretty damn good team even though they're young. Obi's a really good PF who's going tocatch some people by surprise."

Even Wildcat fans are enjoying roterbating with us.

adukeforduke
04-27-2015, 08:00 PM
Huge get today on Ingram. Makes us into a serious contender. Doubt we're as good as last year but the talent across the board should be weaker. Doubt any team will be as good as Kentucky, Wiscansin or our Devils were this year.

I thought Chase was more of a development player who is gonna take a year or two to develop? Don't see him getting big minutes next year. Feel free to correct me if im wrong. Heres my lineup:

PG: Derryck
SG: Grayson
SF: Ingram
PF: Jefferson
C: Plumlee/Obi (I don't know enough about Obi to say either way here)

In the post I expect Jefferson/Plumlee/Obi to get most of the minutes.
Derryck/ Grayson/Ingram/Jones as guards and wings.

Limited PT for Kennard and Jeter

Vrank and Little Admiral in mop up time or play due to injuries.

dukelifer
04-27-2015, 08:06 PM
Huge get today on Ingram. Makes us into a serious contender. Doubt we're as good as last year but the talent across the board should be weaker. Doubt any team will be as good as Kentucky, Wiscansin or our Devils were this year.

I thought Chase was more of a development player who is gonna take a year or two to develop? Don't see him getting big minutes next year. Feel free to correct me if im wrong. Heres my lineup:

PG: Derryck
SG: Grayson
SF: Ingram
PF: Jefferson
C: Plumlee/Obi (I don't know enough about Obi to say either way here)

In the post I expect Jefferson/Plumlee/Obi to get most of the minutes.
Derryck/ Grayson/Ingram/Jones as guards and wings.

Limited PT for Kennard and Jeter

Vrank and Little Admiral in mop up time or play due to injuries.

Kennard is too good- he will play -particularly in crunch time

uh_no
04-27-2015, 08:06 PM
Wow, people are freshman-happy. I will predict that either Grayson or Matt definitely starts and that Marshall gets serious starter consideration as well.

It's hard not to be when they are the majority of the team (6v5 by my count). Further when there are only 4 returning players, only one of whom has shown a significant amount of offensive potential (being grayson, though matt has flashes), you're going to have to look for the offensive output from SOMEWHERE, and it's going to be freshmen.

Continuing, I really can't see marshall starting. he's averaging 2 and 2. Unless he has some zubeckian breakthrough, there's just way too much firepower waiting in the wings. If you compounded that with amile, you're getting effectively zilch from down low. It's unfortunate, but true. At least one of amile and marshall isn't going to start, and i feel amile has done far more to deserve that spot than marshall.

luburch
04-27-2015, 08:17 PM
It's hard for me to believe that either Grayson or Matt will not start, but that seems like it may be the case.

PG - Derryck Thornton (28mpg), Grayson Allen (25mpg)
SG - Matt Jones (28mpg), Grayson Allen
SF - Brandon Ingram (28mpg), Luke Kennard (11mpg)
PF- Amile Jefferson (20mpg), Chase Jeter(20mpg)
C- Marshall Plumlee (20mpg), Sean Obi (20mpg)

Minutes are just quick approximations without thought to who would need to be playing all that much together, etc. That would make the team 9 deep which isn't a typical K lineup and will likely be shorter than that by the time conference play rolls around. That's how it seems to work anyway.

Henderson
04-27-2015, 08:18 PM
Reading this nascent thread, what impresses me most already is the number of good options. Yeehaw.

mattman91
04-27-2015, 08:28 PM
My turn.

PG Thornton
SG Allen
SF Ingram
PF Jefferson
C Plumlee

then...

G Jones
G Kennard
F Obi
F Jeter

PG is a lock with Thornton, IMO. I can see Kennard and Allen initiating the offense while Thornton rests.

SG should be interesting. I think the starting spot COULD go to Matt IF Ingram, Thornton, and the senior captain big men can provide enough offense. I'm a big fan of Mr. Jones' game, and think he needs to play big minutes, but some of the other guys need to prove they can score before I bring Allen off the bench.

Ingram at the SF, duh.

PF- Jefferson. Senior. Captain. Leader. Rebounder. Good around the rim. Work on a mid-range jumper, big guy!

C- I would give the nod to the fifth year senior MP3 to start the season. I could also see Obi taking over here, but not much is known about him right now.

To the bench...

Matt can man the 2 and 3, I expect lots of PT for him regardless of if he starts or not.

Luke should be able to bring some offense from the bench. I am confident he will contribute.

Obi...hopefully he is good enough to shut down Luke Maye when we face UNC. :cool::rolleyes:

I don't see Jeter doing too much. He is not strong enough to handle D1 bigs, and he is very young. I'm sure he will evolve into a very solid player, but we won't need him immediately,

Vrank and Robinson are red shirt candidates. I believe Justin mentioned in a DBR podcast that was the plan for him.

Sleeper...

PAGLIUCA! He beats Stilman White 9/10 pick up 1 on 1 games.

scottdude8
04-27-2015, 08:29 PM
Seems like a lot of people are operating under the assumption that we NEED to have a proficient scorer in the post. I think next years team could look a lot like 2010: two seniors in the post who specialize in defense and rebounding, and a ton of scoring from the perimeter.

I'd be very happy with such a scenario.

flyingdutchdevil
04-27-2015, 08:34 PM
It's back! I love it.

Last year, I had the following line-up:

1. Cook
2. Sulaimon
3. Winslow
4. AJ
5. Okafor

So...I was 1 for 5. I can't do worse this year, right?

So hear I go, in an easy format to understand.

What I know
-Ingram will start. Too talented not to start, and a top 5 player has never not started for Coach K.
-Derryk Thornton will start. This team has no point guard before Thornton. Plus, he provides great defense.
-The following players will crack the rotation: Ingram, Thornton, Allen, Jones, Amile Jefferson, MP3, Obi Wan Kenobi

What I Suspect
-Matt Jones starts. The dude started last year. On a championship team! He provides amazing defense.
-Allen will play a looooot of minutes. But I'm unsure of whether he starts or not.
-This team has the potential to be incredible on D. The athletes are either long (Thornton, Ingram, MP3. Btw, Ingram has a 7'1" wingspan. Holy Moly), talented defensively (AJ, M Jones) or eager (Allen).
-Amile Jefferson either starts or is the first player off the bench. He has been a solid presence all his career. If he can learn to knock down a jumper, his chances of starting increase greatly.

What I am Clueless On
-How good is Luke Kennard? How good is Chase Jeter? If a player is going to crack the rotation, I think it's Chase Jeter. When is the last time a 5-star recruit didn't start, not to mention not crack the rotation?
-Does Sean Obi have what it takes defensively? I think Obi will be our best rebounder from Day 1, but we need our 5 to offer more than rebound.

So, here is my projected starting line up followed by the first, second, third, and fourth players off the bench:

1 - Thornton - he's the engine that makes us go
2 - M Jones - he is excellent off the ball
3 - Ingram - obviously
4 - Amile Jefferson - senior captain and steady presence
5 - Sean Obi - rebounder and provides insane screens using his massive body

Bench 1 - Allen - Super sub. I assume that AJ or Sean will come off first, in which case the remaining big man is the 5, Ingram at the 4, and Thornton/Allen/M Jones at the 1-3.
Bench 2 - Chase Jeter - first big man off the bench
Bench 3 - MP3 - second big man off the bench
Bench 4 - Luke Kennard - second guard off the bench

GGLC
04-27-2015, 08:46 PM
My turn.

PG Thornton
SG Allen
SF Ingram
PF Jefferson
C Plumlee

then...

G Jones
G Kennard
F Obi
F Jeter

PG is a lock with Thornton, IMO. I can see Kennard and Allen initiating the offense while Thornton rests.

SG should be interesting. I think the starting spot COULD go to Matt IF Ingram, Thornton, and the senior captain big men can provide enough offense. I'm a big fan of Mr. Jones' game, and think he needs to play big minutes, but some of the other guys need to prove they can score before I bring Allen off the bench.

Ingram at the SF, duh.

PF- Jefferson. Senior. Captain. Leader. Rebounder. Good around the rim. Work on a mid-range jumper, big guy!

C- I would give the nod to the fifth year senior MP3 to start the season. I could also see Obi taking over here, but not much is known about him right now.

To the bench...

Matt can man the 2 and 3, I expect lots of PT for him regardless of if he starts or not.

Luke should be able to bring some offense from the bench. I am confident he will contribute.

Obi...hopefully he is good enough to shut down Luke Maye when we face UNC. :cool::rolleyes:

I don't see Jeter doing too much. He is not strong enough to handle D1 bigs, and he is very young. I'm sure he will evolve into a very solid player, but we won't need him immediately,.

This mirrors my thoughts pretty closely.

roywhite
04-27-2015, 08:49 PM
And now add a 30-second shot clock to the mix?

Seems so according to this SI article: Men's college basketball shot clock 'likely' decreasing to 30 seconds (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/04/27/college-basketball-shot-clock-30-seconds-ncaa-rules-committee)

Seems like a positive rules change for this upcoming Duke team -- should result in a faster pace, more possessions.

subzero02
04-27-2015, 09:18 PM
How the minutes are split amongst Kennard, Thornton, Jones and Grayson will be very interesting. I think Luke is going to prove himself to be better than expected. I am trying to hold back my expectations but I think he will be an offensive force for us next year.

Waynne
04-27-2015, 09:24 PM
We have 4 five star freshmen according to some rankings. It's possible that 3 freshmen start for the second consecutive year. If that happens I can't remember it ever happening before in Duke basketball history.

gocanes0506
04-27-2015, 09:27 PM
The 30 second clock will really play to a smaller lineup

I hope AJ develops a 10-12 jumper to really help the O.

A lot of O added with the top 4 freshman. K has plenty of lineup options which is good and bad.

gumbomoop
04-27-2015, 09:40 PM
Although the title of this thread refers to minutes, only 1 or 2 posters actually list minutes. Most refer to starters and bench.

I prefer to think first about minutes (for this specific thread), even though some posters disapprove of this approach. Not sure why, as team stats often list mpg first.

It should go without saying that everything that follows is IMO.

My speculation here is about lineup possibilities, rotation, and mpg by the beginning of ACC play, as it seems likely that Krzyzewski will want to do some experimenting in the OOC games. I tend to think in terms of interior (4s and 5s) and perimeter (PG and wings). The wings are interchangeable, especially on O.

I'll guess K goes with at least 8, and probably 9-man rotation. I assume Justin Robinson will redshirt, and that Antonio Vrankovic will not be in the rotation and might redshirt.

PG is Derryck, backed up by Luke, about whose PG-like skills I have previously and frequently posted. Luke's handle, vision, passing, distribution, and court sense surpass those of fellow wings Matt and Grayson.

Wings are Brandon, Matt, Grayson, and combo-Luke.

Interior/4s include Amile, Chase, and combo wing 3/stretch 4 Brandon. Marshall and Sean are 5s.

Lots of flexibility: Luke can play 1-2-3; Matt can defend taller opposing wings; Grayson, while not a PG, can certainly initiate his own maniacal O; and Brandon, while presumably mostly playing wing 3, can slide into K's small-ball schemes as a stretch 4. As will be apparent in the numbers below, I think the two obvious combo guys -- Brandon and Luke -- will primarily play wing, but Luke will see some time as backup PG, and Brandon will play some stretch 4.

Rotation mpg, beginning ACC and for remainder of season:

Derryck (PG only) 30
Matt (wing) 25
Grayson (wing) 25
Luke (combo PG/wing) 22
Brandon (combo wing 3/stretch 4) 25
Amile (4, period) 22
Chase (mostly 4, maybe some 5, depending on whether he's strong enough and a quick learner) 16
Marshall (5, period) 18
Sean (5, period) 18

If none of Luke, Grayson, or Matt gains K's trust as backup PG, then Derryck's mpg go up to 32-34. One or two players' mpg drop just slightly. And that could certainly happen, if Derryck exceeds (already getting pretty high) expectations, is a strong defender, and becomes our "essential" floor leader. I will be surprised if Derryck does not lead the team in mpg after OOC. Seems the only likely way he could slip down to mid-low 20s mpg is if Luke (or Grayson) is a strong option for major minutes at PG.

I suspect that one of Marshall, Sean, or Chase will gradually become the 9th man in the rotation. But I speculate that the 9th man will still be in the rotation, with fewer mpg, maybe only 6-8. If this happens, I'd guess the minutes given back by the 9th man will be parsed out -- 2-3minutes each, to the other 2, to Amile, and to Brandon-as-stretch-4.

I don't know that we have any consensus on what constitutes "in the rotation," but I'm inclined to count a player in the rotation who plays pretty much every game (again, beginning with ACC), even if only 5-6 mpg. True enough that such a player will only barely be in the rotation, and if others think this standard too low, ok, it's debatable.

Utley
04-27-2015, 09:41 PM
It's Over - we have too many players!

I suspect a number of evolving starting line-ups over the course of the season - Thornton and Ingram are the two constants. Matt, Grayson and Amile play a lot - and Luke really develops over the course of the season. Center is most unclear to me. Marshall will play plenty - l feel least sure of what to expect from Jeter and Obi.

I'm most excited that so many players are defense oriented. The one constant between 2010 and 2015 is that both teams were playing better D come tournament time than us.

It will be fun to watch this team grow over the course of the season. It was amazing how good last year's team was from the get to - this one could take a little time to develop - although it has a strong veteran core.

I hope one of the captain's can step in to fill Quinn's large shoes - that's the glue we'll need to fit the pieces together.

Neals384
04-27-2015, 09:54 PM
Minutes prediction:

Amile - 25
Antonio - redshirt
Brandon - 30
Chase - 20
Derryck - 25
Grayson - 20
Luke - 15
Marshall - 20
Matt - 30
Sean - 15

Eyeblong89
04-27-2015, 09:59 PM
I find it easier to believe Matt Jones would come off the bench than Grayson, despite his defensive prowess. I think Matt started last year because we needed a bigger guard/forward to help out defensively. I don't see that being as much of a need with the potential Thornton/Ingram combo in the game most of the time.

I agree with others that Thornton and Ingram are virtual locks to start. Grayson will grow leaps and bounds over the summer with respect to his confidence after the championship game. I project him starting at the 2 with Kennard backing him up and Matt sharing time backing up 2 and also being Ingram's primary backup at the 3. Kennard was told to prepare to be a PG before Thornton's commitment, so I assume he backs up PG.

No way Plumlee starts and I agree with others that Jeter is probably too raw to handle the post much.

PG - Thornton with Kennard backing up
SG - Allen with Kennard and Jones back up
SF - Ingram with Jones back up
PF - Amile with Chase backing up
C - Obi with MP3 back up

Vrank and Little Admiral redshirt.

jipops
04-27-2015, 10:05 PM
It certainly is a fun game to play, especially with such little info:

I'm going with this as the starting 5 on day 1:
Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Jeter

That's a nice mix of length and defensive promise. I don't think we'll be nearly as efficient offensively as last season, actually I'm quite sure we won't, but we should be pretty good on D.

I think Grayson could put in about 20-25 minutes. Despite the title game, I'm still not ready to anoint him as some offensive go-to. I'd like to see him improve on his outside shot and defense. Also, he may end up being the back up point. He'll play more if Derryck struggles which is certainly possible.

Kennard - I really have no clue. Given that we have a bevy of talented perimeter players each with their own skill set Luke could get a little buried here.

Obi - if he rebounds at all like he did at Rice he'll put in double figure minutes

Plumlee - 15-20

I'm also going on a hunch that we'll see a big year from Matt Jones. Not necessarily as a scorer, though I do think his shooting will continue to improve, but as a guy who plays terrific D and makes all those intangible plays. I think he's going to change a lot of opinions concerning his value.

gam7
04-27-2015, 10:15 PM
Looking at this team and potential lineups, I'm really liking what I see defensively. Offensively, our points will come from a lot of sources - less concentrated scoring than last season where we really had four guys carrying the burden - but we will not be as prolific as last year. That is to say, we won't be a top 2 offense nationally.

Assuming health, i anticipate an average points distribution to look something like this:

Grayson: 15
Ingram/Thornton: 24
Jones/Jefferson/kennard: 21
Chase/Plumlee/obi: 15

This would be 75 points per game, which, with the potential I see defensively, should be enough to win a lot of games.

Re: the health assumption: I love the way Grayson plays, but I do fear that if he plays that way while earning normal starter minutes (and he will start), he will get injured...

m g
04-27-2015, 10:25 PM
To start the year:
Thornton
Jones/Allen
Ingram
Jefferson
Obi/Jeter

To finish the year:
Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Obi/Jefferson/Jeter

Would have to defy reasonable expectations to start:
Kennard
Plumlee

To start the year, I expect us to have a more traditional lineup with two PF/C players at the 4 and 5. By the end of the year, Jones and Ingram are big enough that Coach K is inevitably going to prefer a 3-guard lineup alongside Ingram & one of the bigs.

It's really hard to predict who that big will be. Obi seems to be an established bruiser, Plumlee is an outstanding backup and would be a capable starter but has the lowest upside, Jeter seems awesome but is harder to project, Jefferson is an outstanding defender and ought to be the favorite but would leave the lineup undersized.

If history is any indication, one of the guards and at least one of the bigs is going to be getting low minutes and DNP-CDs at the end of the year. The smart money is on Kennard as the guard who gets limited minutes and Plumlee or Jeter as the big.

That is no slight to them as players--any of them could crack the rotation or come up big when called upon late in the season, a la Allen this year, Eliot Williams, Casey Sanders, you name it. We're just stacked. Again.

Kedsy
04-27-2015, 10:33 PM
If you compounded that with amile, you're getting effectively zilch from down low. It's unfortunate, but true. At least one of amile and marshall isn't going to start, and i feel amile has done far more to deserve that spot than marshall.

It may be worth noting that this past season Amile and Marshall combined for more points per 40 minutes (11.02) than starters Zoubek and Thomas in 2010 (9.41). So your supposition that we absolutely won't play two guys providing "zilch from down low" is not necessarily accurate.

As far as the rotation, I'm going to withhold giving a firm opinion until I see the final RSCI rankings (which I've gone on record before as being a reliable predictor of Duke's rotation). That said, my biggest question is whether Coach K can resist going to a 9-man rotation for the first time ever. By "rotation," I mean 10+ mpg (or pretty close, anyway), in close games after January 1.

When we have five perimeter options above a certain level (as we did this past season), Coach K has pretty much always played all five. But he has rarely put more than three interior options into the rotation -- the only season in recent memory where he did this was 2010. But in 2010 we only had four perimeter players, so the overall rotation was still just eight (and really it was less by the end of the season; in the championship game that year, only five Duke players were on the court for 10+ minutes).

But looking at next season's team, it's not hard to envision Coach K giving 9 guys regular rotation minutes. Obviously we'll have to see if Luke lives up to the hype he's gotten on this Board, but especially if he's the backup PG, he ought to see at least 8 or 10 minutes, and the other four perimeter players (Derryck, Grayson, Matt, and Brandon) will almost certainly see more than that. And as for our four primary interior players, it's possible we don't see enough separation to justify benching one at the expense of the others.

In the RSCI preliminary rankings, Chase was ranked 9th. He dropped in ESPN's final rankings, and it remains to be seen if he's dropped overall, but if he's close to the top 10 history would suggest he'll get a decent amount of run, even if he's a bit skinny and raw. Amile and Marshall are senior co-captains and both have shown good defensive skills. Amile has averaged 20+ mpg his past two seasons and even averaged 11+ his freshman year -- hard to imagine he'd dip below 15 mpg. And Marshall is our only 7-footer, averaged close to 10 mpg last season and would seem to be on a developmental upswing. While all Sean Obi did as a freshman at Rice was average almost a double-double and be the third best defensive rebounder in the nation. So, unless Chase shows he just isn't ready to contribute (a la Ryan Kelly in 2010), I'd think all four of these guys ought to play at least 10 mpg.

But if that happens and Luke also plays 10+ mpg, that would mean Coach K would be doing something he'd never done before (play a "real" 9-man rotation). Which is crazy, right? I mean, we'd probably see him play zone defense before he'd do anything like that... :p

uh_no
04-28-2015, 12:16 AM
It may be worth noting that this past season Amile and Marshall combined for more points per 40 minutes (11.02) than starters Zoubek and Thomas in 2010 (9.41). So your supposition that we absolutely won't play two guys providing "zilch from down low" is not necessarily accurate.


I'm not sure about that math....zoubs alone put up 5.6 points in 18.7 minutes a game...good for 12 points per 40
lance put up 4.8 in 25.3, or 7.5 per 40

so the two put up near 19.5 points per 40.

marshall put up 2.2 in 9.6 minutes, or 9 points per 40
amile had 11.5 per 40 giving them a combined 20.5

within a point.

I'm not saying your wrong, it's a great point, but there's a couple of other things to consider

1) rebounds: zoubs 16.6 per game in 2010. Lance? 7.7 = 24.3
Marshall? 9.8, amile, 10.9 = 20.7

four boards a game over a season is significant. but to be fair, amile wasn't in a vacuum...jahlil was around (though marshall hardly played with okafor...so irrelevent for him). Whether jahlil accounts for 4 boards that amile didn't get is hard to say. but i'd give the nod to the 2010 folks on boards

2) representative sample. This is more important for marshall, but a large % of his minutes were garbage time against poor opponents. 17 against presbyterian, 13 vs fairfield, 12 vs furman, 13 v army, 10 vs elon, 11 vs wofford 18 vs wake in a blowout, 21 vs state in a blowout, 19 v robert morris, 24 vs clemson

what do these have in common? none of them were big minutes in really tough games. Zoub's numbers were up...so he was playing what, near 30 minutes vs baylor and butler?

for amile, his numbers were significantly off in big game sdown the stretch.

UNC: 3points/31mins
State 0-fer
ND: 2/12
sdsu: 0-fer
utah 4/20
gonzaga: 0-fer
wisconsin: 2/20

while zoubek's numbers post maryland largely tracked his season number, amile's was down significantly. When it counted, we looked for other scoring options....and perhaps that's because of what else we had available....which brings me to

3) what we had available. The replacement players for Z and lance were mason and miles. Recall those two in their younger years, it wasn't exactly a sight to behold. Z figured out how to be productive on the floor for a full game, and it was the missing piece.

I have high hopes that chase and brandon will be somehwat more polished off the bat than the elder plumlees, I can hope for Obi too, but who knows. Point being that the other options down low could likely be better than the plumlees in 2010. Maybe they won't be, but that's my guess.

4) size. zoub's was 7'1....2" over marshall, and marshall's wingspan is a t-rexian 6'8. I don't have Z's number, but it was probably about, if not longer than his height. Does marshall affect that shot at the end of the title game like Z did? who knows.

5) experience. the three S's had played together for 3 years. they were all prolific scorers. will a freshman PG, a freshman wing mesh with the SG whose teammates all left? Well enough to eliminate the need for decent post scoring? we shall see!

ANyway, none of these points are meant to be the be all and end all, just nudges that make me feel that this years situation is different enough from 2010 that it won't make sense to play marshall and amile together in the primary lineup. THey ought to be in the rotation for sure, especially with how amile played D down the stretch, but I'd expect to see him with someone other than plumdog.

subzero02
04-28-2015, 01:08 AM
It certainly is a fun game to play, especially with such little info:

I'm going with this as the starting 5 on day 1:
Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Jeter

That's a nice mix of length and defensive promise. I don't think we'll be nearly as efficient offensively as last season, actually I'm quite sure we won't, but we should be pretty good on D.

I think Grayson could put in about 20-25 minutes. Despite the title game, I'm still not ready to anoint him as some offensive go-to. I'd like to see him improve on his outside shot and defense. Also, he may end up being the back up point. He'll play more if Derryck struggles which is certainly possible.

Kennard - I really have no clue. Given that we have a bevy of talented perimeter players each with their own skill set Luke could get a little buried here.

Obi - if he rebounds at all like he did at Rice he'll put in double figure minutes

Plumlee - 15-20

I'm also going on a hunch that we'll see a big year from Matt Jones. Not necessarily as a scorer, though I do think his shooting will continue to improve, but as a guy who plays terrific D and makes all those intangible plays. I think he's going to change a lot of opinions concerning his value.

Luke's point guard skills are definitely superior to Grayson's. Kennard seems to be a terrific passer.

Kedsy
04-28-2015, 01:21 AM
I'm not sure about that math....zoubs alone put up 5.6 points in 18.7 minutes a game...good for 12 points per 40
lance put up 4.8 in 25.3, or 7.5 per 40

so the two put up near 19.5 points per 40.

marshall put up 2.2 in 9.6 minutes, or 9 points per 40
amile had 11.5 per 40 giving them a combined 20.5

within a point.

Well, you're better at math than I am, but Lance and Z combined for 414 points in 1759 minutes in 2009-10, which comes to 0.2353 points per minute, or 9.41 points per 40 minutes, while Marshall and Amile combined for 324 points in 1176 minutes in 2014-15, which comes to 0.2755 points per minute, or 11.02 points per 40 minutes. Which is a difference of 1.6 points per 40.

I'm certainly willing to entertain the possibility that I'm making a math error, but looking at the numbers I don't see what it is. Unless it's the fact that there are 80 minutes for C/PF and I should be doubling the calculation? But if so, then Marshall/Amile have 22.04 points per 80 and Z/Lance have 18.83 points per 80, which is a difference of 3.2 (not within a point). Again, my math could be off completely, but I'm not seeing it right now.


I'm not saying your wrong, it's a great point, but there's a couple of other things to consider

1) rebounds: zoubs 16.6 per game in 2010. Lance? 7.7 = 24.3
Marshall? 9.8, amile, 10.9 = 20.7

four boards a game over a season is significant.

Again, I may be doing this wrong, but Z and Lance combined for 503 rebounds in 1759 minutes, which comes to 0.2860 rebounds per minute, or 11.44 rebounds per 40. Marshall and Amile combined for 301 rebounds in 1176 minutes, or 0.2560 rebounds per minute, or 10.24 rebounds per 40. A difference of 1.2 rebounds, 25% less of a difference than Marshall/Amile's scoring advantage.

If you double it because the two positions combine for 80 minutes (like I mentioned above), then Z/Lance have 22.88 rebs per 80 vs. 20.48 rebs per 80, a difference of 2.4 (again, much less than 4 rebs a game, and also 25% less than the scoring advantage for Marshall/Amile).


size. zoub's was 7'1....2" over marshall, and marshall's wingspan is a t-rexian 6'8. I don't have Z's number, but it was probably about, if not longer than his height. Does marshall affect that shot at the end of the title game like Z did? who knows.

According to GoDuke.com, Marshall is listed at 7'0, only one inch shorter than Z. Amile is listed at 6'9, one inch taller than Lance. Would seem to be a wash.

As far as Marshall's arms, it's a good point. Yet, despite this seeming handicap, Marshall blocked shots in 2014-15 (5.5% block pct) at a better clip than Z did in 2009-10 (4.0% block pct). Perhaps Marshall makes up for his shorter arms with better jumping ability?


what do these have in common? none of them were big minutes in really tough games. Zoub's numbers were up...so he was playing what, near 30 minutes vs baylor and butler?

for amile, his numbers were significantly off in big game sdown the stretch.

This is another good point, certainly. I'm not suggesting Marshall and Amile are as good a basketball tandem as Z and Lance. I'm merely suggesting that the fact that neither of them are scorers doesn't necessarily disqualify Marshall/Amile from playing together, as the recent history of Z/Lance seems to attest.

Your other point that Nolan/Jon/Kyle were more experienced and may have been better aggregate scorers than, e.g., Derryck/Grayson/Brandon is also a good one. That said, I'm not sure how much the experience matters in determining where the scoring comes from. And while I'd probably be surprised we had a trio of perimeter guys combining for 53 points a game, I might not be shocked if our five perimeter guys matched the 57 ppg that our four perimeter guys managed in 2010.

Finally, we're comparing junior numbers for Marshall and Amile vs. senior numbers for Z and Lance. There's at least a decent chance that Amile's and Marshall's numbers will go up in all categories in their final year and they'll exceed Lance's and Z's production, though of course it's nowhere near a certainty.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-28-2015, 01:47 AM
Three weeks ago: who will we have left?
Ten days ago: we have no one left!
Six hours ago: ZOMG! Best roster ever!
Thirty-six hours from now: Who will transfer??

I hate offseason.

Wander
04-28-2015, 01:53 AM
I don't think there's a single guy who's a lock to start. Has that ever happened before?

(no one is a lock to start every year, each player has to earn their minutes, blah blah blah, you know what I mean)

ACCBBallFan
04-28-2015, 02:20 AM
Hard to argue with any of these posts.

Regarding RSCI rankings, not all classes are created equal and this year's class is deemed relatively weak except at the top, so good to be the number 1 team recruiting class, rather than 10th best.

We tend to all put halos on all inbound frosh and overemphasize any warts returning players may have.

I think it is safe to assume Thornton as the only natural PG and Ingram as the only natural WF play starter minutes, as does Jones the lone returning starter from NCAAT champs.

MP3 and Jefferson play as much or more than last year without having to compete with big Jah and Justise for PT.

Based on his one shining moment, very good bet that Allen plays starter minites.

Assuming his Rice metrics at least partially translate, Sean Obi plays 10 or more MPG.

Until proven otherwise that leaves Kennard and Jeter, highly rated guys in a weak class as the great unknowns and players 8-9 in either order in the rotation. That could be the illusional 9-deep rotation or it could be 7-man rotation with the other 2 alternating as 8th man depending on situation.

Cases in point are Ryan Kelly's freshman year and Grayson's last year until the Sulaimon dismissal, or Elliott Williams (let's not relive that discussion).

Hall of Fame GOAT coach with so much flexibility will be another fun season.

ice-9
04-28-2015, 03:36 AM
My prediction...

Ball handlers:
- Derryck Thornton (30 mpg)
- Luke Kennard (10 mpg)

Wing:
- Matt Jones (30 mpg)
- Brandon Ingram (30 mpg)
- Grayson Allen (25 mpg)

Post:
- Amile Jefferson (30 mpg)
- Marshall Plumlee (20 mpg)
- Sean Obi (20 mpg)
- Chase Jeter (5 mpg)

Predicted starters: Thornton, Jones, Ingram, Jefferson and Plumlee/Obi. This lineup can be scary good defensively, but offense may be an issue. Perhaps Allen could start instead of Jones.

There's a 90% chance of all this happening so if things did not come to pass it's not because I'm wrong, it's because of probability.

sagegrouse
04-28-2015, 06:24 AM
Why will Grayson start? Easy, he is the most intense player on the team. On defense, he goes after the ball. On offense, he drives the lane with great energy and skill. He can shoot and make FTs. He's just the kind of player K likes -- and is intense like his coach. I would expect Grayson to play 30 MPG.

Ingram will also start. We don't have anyone of that length with those offensive and passing abilities.

After that, it gets interesting. More later.

Jackson
04-28-2015, 07:08 AM
It's going to be hard to put a starter on a national championship team on the bench. Jones will most likely start. I can't imagine Jefferson not starting. Ingram will be in the lineup from day 1 as will Thornton. That leaves Grayson, Obi, Jeter or Plumlee as the fifth starter. It just depends on who shows out. If Grayson plays anywhere near like he did during the NCAAT he is not only a lock to start but also to contend for All America honors. Maybe Obi will be able to put up the same type of numbers that he did as a freshman at Rice. It's an interesting problem to have. Perhaps Jefferson will be able to play a bit of an expansion of what he did last year and allow Obi or Jeter to play the 5 and give a real inside presence.

MarkD83
04-28-2015, 07:18 AM
My prediction...

Ball handlers:
- Derryck Thornton (30 mpg)
- Luke Kennard (10 mpg)

Wing:
- Matt Jones (30 mpg)
- Brandon Ingram (30 mpg)
- Grayson Allen (25 mpg)

Post:
- Amile Jefferson (30 mpg)
- Marshall Plumlee (20 mpg)
- Sean Obi (20 mpg)
- Chase Jeter (5 mpg)

Predicted starters: Thornton, Jones, Ingram, Jefferson and Plumlee/Obi. This lineup can be scary good defensively, but offense may be an issue. Perhaps Allen could start instead of Jones.

There's a 90% chance of all this happening so if things did not come to pass it's not because I'm wrong, it's because of probability.

Or Coach K sees something that this board does not and puts players on the floor based on the competition we are playing. :)

gurufrisbee
04-28-2015, 07:54 AM
As long as we're all consistent in saying it's way too early and we're probably wrong, here's my guess:

Starters:
Thornton
Allen
Ingram
Amile
Jeter

Main guys off bench:
Matt
Kennard

less off the bench:
Obi
MP3

I don't think Vranky even plays this season. If it's not officially redshirting, it's gonna feel like it.

jv001
04-28-2015, 08:14 AM
My main concern is replacing Quinn Cook. Until Quinn's senior season, I was not a big fan. Boy, did he change my mind this past season. Not only did he knock down the big threes, he played terrific defense and was as Coach said, one of the best captains ever. I know I should be concerned about replacing the 3 freshman as well, but for some reason, I'm not that concerned. Now for minutes, I'm going to say that the term "minutes are earned in practice" is certainly going to be the case this coming season. I don't have any idea how Obi, Jeter, Kennard or Vrank will play because I've not seen them play outside of the McDonalds game and that's not an indicator of how good high school players are. So here's my educated guess for games after ACC play begins:
1) Thornton 32
2) Ingram 30
3) Allen 28
4) Jones 28
5) Amile 24
6) Obi 18
7) MPIII 20
7) Kennard 10
8) Jeter 10

I'm probably way off but that's ok, it's the offseason, speculation time and golf season. :cool: GoDuke!

superdave
04-28-2015, 08:25 AM
Why will Grayson start? Easy, he is the most intense player on the team. On defense, he goes after the ball. On offense, he drives the lane with great energy and skill. He can shoot and make FTs. He's just the kind of player K likes -- and is intense like his coach. I would expect Grayson to play 30 MPG.

Ingram will also start. We don't have anyone of that length with those offensive and passing abilities.

After that, it gets interesting. More later.

You cannot pick all conference until we've beaten the minutes and rotation discussion to death!

That being said, could there be the Toby Bailey syndrome going on here? Let's see Allen carry the pressure of being a regular rotation guy for a season, with no allowance for letdowns. I think he can do that and be a really good player. But he was a role player who stepped up a couple of times last season.

The other interesting question - and this is an 8-man rotation vs a 9-man rotation - is Luke going to follow Scheyer's path where he is just so sound even though his recruiting ranking is not as high as some others? Let's hope so. It would be a great, uncommon problem to have.

If we follow last year's model, minutes will be up for grabs, schemes will change and tweaks will be tweaked. And it will be a lots of fun given all the talent.

ACCBBallFan
04-28-2015, 08:30 AM
Only slight modifications to what ice-9 outlined factoring in Sean Obi's minutes at Rice and sage comment about potential need for more Offense

Player GP MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%

Sean Obi 30 26.4 11.4 9.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.0 .591 .544 .000

Predicted starters: Thornton, Allen, Jones, Ingram, Obi.

This leaves the NCAAT champion bench essentially in tact with Amile, MP3, and Luke in Grayson's role, with Chase Jeter as added insurance.

The senior guys are great role players but not the highest potential starters to get you to the final four. If Chase Jeter is so good in year one as to steal minutes from Sean, so be it.

Kennard can be JJ-like but as was case with Grayson last year prior to Sulaimon dismissal, a case of numbers much like when Marty Pocius did not play as much as his potential would dictate.

27.5 Thornton 27.5
27.5 Jones 55.0
27.5 Ingram 82.5
27.5 Jefferson 110.0

25.0 Allen 135.0
25.0 Obi 160.0

15.0 Plumlee 175.0

12.5 Kennard 187.5
12.5 Jeter 200.0

On a game to game basis Allen, Plumlee and Obi's minutes are fairly constant with the top four being more variable sometimes 25, sometimes 30 based on the opponent and game situations or foul troubles. Ditto for two freshmen role players sometimes 10 and sometimes 15. I do not expect many non-injury DNP's.

It's difficult to do a simplistic ball handler, wing, post breakout so I chose to do PG/ C / Other (instead of "wing") to account for sometimes taditional CC-PF-SF-SG-G and sometimes 3-guards plus Ingram at PF and one big

PG's Thornton 27.5 + Kennard 12.5

C Obi 25 + Plumlee 15

Others total 120

27.5 Jones 27.5
27.5 Ingram 55.0
27.5 Jefferson 82.5

25.0 Allen 107.5

12.5 Jeter 120.0

Even this is simplistic as there will be times Thornton and Kennard will be on the floor together, and times when neither is on the floor with Grayson or even Matt running the Offense on occasion. So I have used the names Kennard/Allen somewhat interchangeably.

Ditto for Obi and MP3 when the one big on ocassion may be Amile or Chase in victory formation a/k/a small ball at end of game

Will lose the seniors Amile and Marhsall, and possibly Ingram to early entry but more 3-4 year players gaining experience to complement next year's one and done recruits when PT will be even harder to garner.


My prediction...

Ball handlers:
- Derryck Thornton (30 mpg)
- Luke Kennard (10 mpg)

Wing:
- Matt Jones (30 mpg)
- Brandon Ingram (30 mpg)
- Grayson Allen (25 mpg)

Post:
- Amile Jefferson (30 mpg)
- Marshall Plumlee (20 mpg)
- Sean Obi (20 mpg)
- Chase Jeter (5 mpg)

Predicted starters: Thornton, Jones, Ingram, Jefferson and Plumlee/Obi. This lineup can be scary good defensively, but offense may be an issue. Perhaps Allen could start instead of Jones.

There's a 90% chance of all this happening so if things did not come to pass it's not because I'm wrong, it's because of probability.

Bluealum
04-28-2015, 08:50 AM
Three weeks ago: who will we have left?
Ten days ago: we have no one left!
Six hours ago: ZOMG! Best roster ever!
Thirty-six hours from now: Who will transfer??

I hate offseason.

Cannot agree more....and yet I read these minutes distribution threads...very strange! It would be refreshing if we could skip the last iteration which I believe is likely this year. Incoming recruits aren't transfers even if they bail out, and I can't see Plumlee, Jefferson, Jones, or Allen transferring (3 captains and the breakout star of the Final).

It's been a heck of a stretch for Duke hoops, I hope we keep our mojo and humiity when at the pinnacle rather than going into a downward spiral the way the cheats did after winning their last title and signing HB amidst a wash of chest thumping.

MChambers
04-28-2015, 08:53 AM
My main concern is replacing Quinn Cook. Until Quinn's senior season, I was not a big fan. Boy, did he change my mind this past season. Not only did he knock down the big threes, he played terrific defense and was as Coach said, one of the best captains ever. I know I should be concerned about replacing the 3 freshman as well, but for some reason, I'm not that concerned. Now for minutes, I'm going to say that the term "minutes are earned in practice" is certainly going to be the case this coming season. I don't have any idea how Obi, Jeter, Kennard or Vrank will play because I've not seen them play outside of the McDonalds game and that's not an indicator of how good high school players are. So here's my educated guess for games after ACC play begins:
1) Thornton 32
2) Ingram 30
3) Allen 28
4) Jones 28
5) Amile 24
6) Obi 18
7) MPIII 20
7) Kennard 10
8) Jeter 10

I'm probably way off but that's ok, it's the offseason, speculation time and golf season. :cool: GoDuke!
I like how you repeated 7. I assume you did that because K never uses a 9 man rotation, and that way you could keep the number of players to 8.

Eight is enough, right?

sagegrouse
04-28-2015, 09:00 AM
You cannot pick all conference until we've beaten the minutes and rotation discussion to death!

That being said, could there be the Toby Bailey syndrome going on here? Let's see Allen carry the pressure of being a regular rotation guy for a season, with no allowance for letdowns. I think he can do that and be a really good player. But he was a role player who stepped up a couple of times last season.

The other interesting question - and this is an 8-man rotation vs a 9-man rotation - is Luke going to follow Scheyer's path where he is just so sound even though his recruiting ranking is not as high as some others? Let's hope so. It would be a great, uncommon problem to have.

If we follow last year's model, minutes will be up for grabs, schemes will change and tweaks will be tweaked. And it will be a lots of fun given all the talent.

I hear you, SuperDave, but Grayson is the only scorer among the four returning players. Maybe someone else will emerge later, but I expect him to be the leading scorer for at least the first one-half of the season. And I hope you agree that K loves Grayson's intensity and insane competitiveness. His "gimme that ball" manner reminds me of JWill.

GGLC
04-28-2015, 09:07 AM
People are underestimating Amile's post scoring prowess.

CDu
04-28-2015, 09:24 AM
Well, you're better at math than I am, but Lance and Z combined for 414 points in 1759 minutes in 2009-10, which comes to 0.2353 points per minute, or 9.41 points per 40 minutes, while Marshall and Amile combined for 324 points in 1176 minutes in 2014-15, which comes to 0.2755 points per minute, or 11.02 points per 40 minutes. Which is a difference of 1.6 points per 40.

I'm certainly willing to entertain the possibility that I'm making a math error, but looking at the numbers I don't see what it is. Unless it's the fact that there are 80 minutes for C/PF and I should be doubling the calculation? But if so, then Marshall/Amile have 22.04 points per 80 and Z/Lance have 18.83 points per 80, which is a difference of 3.2 (not within a point). Again, my math could be off completely, but I'm not seeing it right now.

Again, I may be doing this wrong, but Z and Lance combined for 503 rebounds in 1759 minutes, which comes to 0.2860 rebounds per minute, or 11.44 rebounds per 40. Marshall and Amile combined for 301 rebounds in 1176 minutes, or 0.2560 rebounds per minute, or 10.24 rebounds per 40. A difference of 1.2 rebounds, 25% less of a difference than Marshall/Amile's scoring advantage.

If you double it because the two positions combine for 80 minutes (like I mentioned above), then Z/Lance have 22.88 rebs per 80 vs. 20.48 rebs per 80, a difference of 2.4 (again, much less than 4 rebs a game, and also 25% less than the scoring advantage for Marshall/Amile).

The difference between your math and uh_no's math is simply how you are doing it. You have chosen to add the two players' stats together first and then adjust to a rate. uh_no's approach was convert each player's stats into rates and then add them together. The reason Kedsy's numbers are much lower is because he has taken the raw production (which is more weighted toward Lance Thomas' stats) whereas uh_no has weighted them equally. In the sense of "what happened", Kedsy's math is proper. In the sense of "what players were theoretically capable of (i.e., assuming each player's stats were adjusted for 40 minutes, not a hypothetical "Lance Zoubek") then uh_no's math was proper. So it's all a matter of perspective.

ACCBBallFan
04-28-2015, 09:34 AM
It's going to be hard to put a starter on a national championship team on the bench. Jones will most likely start. I can't imagine Jefferson not starting. Ingram will be in the lineup from day 1 as will Thornton. That leaves Grayson, Obi, Jeter or Plumlee as the fifth starter. It just depends on who shows out. If Grayson plays anywhere near like he did during the NCAAT he is not only a lock to start but also to contend for All America honors. Maybe Obi will be able to put up the same type of numbers that he did as a freshman at Rice. It's an interesting problem to have. Perhaps Jefferson will be able to play a bit of an expansion of what he did last year and allow Obi or Jeter to play the 5 and give a real inside presence.

Other than the label starter as opposed to "starter minutes" for Amile, we are in agreement as to top 4 guys averaging 25-30 MPG for reasons you cite.

I also agree with you on Allen as a starter, but went with your maybe of Obi based on near double double at Rice over Amile as nominal starter. with same caveat that Jeter may sneak in over him but not likely.

It's so hard to forego the sheer size of either Sean Obi or MP3 in the post other than in special circumstances with Jeter or Amile.

Due more to sheer numbers than to immediate potential, Luke went unmentioned in your post but I see his role greater than Grayson's was prior to the Sulaimon dismissal and less than his role after, with no DNP's since he is not competing for PT with Tyus and Quinn and Sheed, but rather with Thornton and Jones/Allen for combo minutes.

It's still a very young team, so when Matt subs out, highy unlikely neither Amle nor MP3 will be on the floor for captaincy and senior leadership and knowlede of Duke's defensive systems, that I agree with another poster Quinn will be sorely missed.

The Justise ability to single handedly take over a game will most likely be taken by Allen or Ingram, not his muscle but his attitude (Grayson) and altitude enough to play PF to leverage the mismatch (Brandon).

Thornton is no Tyus but still very good pass first PG, but again the backup PG is no Quinn who had such an outstanding combination of senior leadership, tenacious defense once he set his mind to it, and dagger 3's like Tyus. Perhaps the combination of Luke and Grayson can come close but Duke still loses something having to choose one or the other rather than all in one Cook.

A center by committee cannot offset big Jah's ability to force coaches to drastically alter their game plan, but still a virtual double double which ain't bad.

Coach K has the flexibility to move the chess peices based on the collective talent, and not a single system with Ingram a big get giving K much the same flexibility he had with Dunleavy and others in the past.

These guys are all very good but not so good as to scare off some even more outstanding recruits in the next class.

Future is bright for Duke leaving no desire for coach K to hand over the reigns in near term.

CDu
04-28-2015, 09:49 AM
I don't think there's a single guy who's a lock to start. Has that ever happened before?

(no one is a lock to start every year, each player has to earn their minutes, blah blah blah, you know what I mean)

I would say there are two locks to start (Thornton and Ingram) and one near-lock to start (Jefferson). Thornton is the only PG, Ingram is the top-5 talent, and Jefferson is the senior captain and has logged by far the most starts of anyone on the team.

From there I think that all three of Jones, Allen, and Kennard will play significant minutes. My guess would be that Jones will start initially, but that is purely a guess. And who knows as the season goes on how this will play out? I'd say those three have the biggest battle for minutes because I think they each stand on such even ground with each other. Jones has the edge defensively, Allen has the edge athletically, and I think Kennard has the edge in overall offensive game. That should be a fun battle to watch as I think two guys will get significant minutes while one will play closer to 10-12 minutes.

Then there is the backup PF and the C spots. I think Jeter will be playing at least 10 mpg. I think Plumlee will get 10-15 mpg (I don't think he'll get more because, like Hairston before him, I think his ceiling is as a backup). The question is whether Obi is better than Plumlee or not. If he's not, then I think Jeter will get more minutes. If he is, then I think Jeter stays in the ~15-18 mpg range and Obi gets the 20+ mpg.

So with the caveat that I have no real idea how the SG and C positions will play out, I'll guess somewhere in the neighborhood of:

PG: Thornton (28mpg), Kennard (12 mpg)
SG: Jones (8 mpg), Allen (22 mpg), Kennard (10 mpg)
SF: Ingram (24 mpg), Jones (14 mpg), Kennard (2 mpg)
PF: Jefferson (28 mpg), Jeter (8 mpg), Ingram (4 mpg)
C: Obi (20 mpg), Plumlee (12 mpg), Jeter (8 mpg)

Redshirt candidates: Vrankovic and Robinson

Indoor66
04-28-2015, 10:16 AM
What does the Math say? Is there a KenPom probability? Inquiring minds want to know.

roywhite
04-28-2015, 10:31 AM
I would say there are two locks to start (Thornton and Ingram) and one near-lock to start (Jefferson). Thornton is the only PG, Ingram is the top-5 talent, and Jefferson is the senior captain and has logged by far the most starts of anyone on the team.

From there I think that all three of Jones, Allen, and Kennard will play significant minutes. My guess would be that Jones will start initially, but that is purely a guess. And who knows as the season goes on how this will play out? I'd say those three have the biggest battle for minutes because I think they each stand on such even ground with each other. Jones has the edge defensively, Allen has the edge athletically, and I think Kennard has the edge in overall offensive game. That should be a fun battle to watch as I think two guys will get significant minutes while one will play closer to 10-12 minutes.

Then there is the backup PF and the C spots. I think Jeter will be playing at least 10 mpg. I think Plumlee will get 10-15 mpg (I don't think he'll get more because, like Hairston before him, I think his ceiling is as a backup). The question is whether Obi is better than Plumlee or not. If he's not, then I think Jeter will get more minutes. If he is, then I think Jeter stays in the ~15-18 mpg range and Obi gets the 20+ mpg.

So with the caveat that I have no real idea how the SG and C positions will play out, I'll guess somewhere in the neighborhood of:

PG: Thornton (28mpg), Kennard (12 mpg)
SG: Jones (8 mpg), Allen (22 mpg), Kennard (10 mpg)
SF: Ingram (24 mpg), Jones (14 mpg), Kennard (2 mpg)
PF: Jefferson (28 mpg), Jeter (8 mpg), Ingram (4 mpg)
C: Obi (20 mpg), Plumlee (12 mpg), Jeter (8 mpg)

Redshirt candidates: Vrankovic and Robinson

This might be the best estimate I've seen so far, or at least the one that I like. Maybe a little light on minutes for Grayson Allen? We're seeing 22 minutes here, and he could be up to 30 minutes IMO; is he a legit backup for a minutes at PG?

CDu
04-28-2015, 10:34 AM
Last year's musings, in case people want a walk down memory lane: http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33629-Musings-Of-2014-15-Starters-amp-Rotation-Players

Ah memories! Those of us who predicted that Cook would play a LOT of minutes at SG can pat themselves on the back. That said, the thread linked above just illustrates how crazy a year last year was. Sulaimon was widely predicted to be a 25+ mpg guy, and there was debate over whether Winslow or Ojeleye would get the backup PF minutes.

Granted, I don't think anyone would have predicted that Sulaimon would get dismissed from the team. Many predicted Ojeleye was a transfer risk, but I don't know that anyone outright expected it to happen. Crazy how things changed over the course of the season, and crazy that the team seemed to find its identity at just the right time!

CDu
04-28-2015, 10:41 AM
This might be the best estimate I've seen so far, or at least the one that I like. Maybe a little light on minutes for Grayson Allen? We're seeing 22 minutes here, and he could be up to 30 minutes IMO; is he a legit backup for a minutes at PG?

Thanks! Yeah, I'm fairly agnostic on how the minutes will break down between Allen/Kennard/Jones. My gut is that Kennard will be the first option as backup PG, but my gut is also telling me not to bet heavily on it in this case! Breaking down the minutes for our three SGs was REALLY hard to do. They each seem to do different things well, and are each so similarly positioned when factoring in high school ranking and college experience, so it's hard to get a feel for how the minutes will play out. Allen could certainly push up to 30 mpg if he has the breakout year many here are predicting. My estimates were sort of a hedge given my perceived similarity in quality among them (so all fell in the 20-25 mpg range).

InSpades
04-28-2015, 10:49 AM
So with the caveat that I have no real idea how the SG and C positions will play out, I'll guess somewhere in the neighborhood of:

PG: Thornton (28mpg), Kennard (12 mpg)
SG: Jones (8 mpg), Allen (22 mpg), Kennard (10 mpg)
SF: Ingram (24 mpg), Jones (14 mpg), Kennard (2 mpg)
PF: Jefferson (28 mpg), Jeter (8 mpg), Ingram (4 mpg)
C: Obi (20 mpg), Plumlee (12 mpg), Jeter (8 mpg)

Redshirt candidates: Vrankovic and Robinson

I like this. Though I think you could see more Ingram at the 4 to get more minutes for Allen, Jones, Kennard. Or more minutes for Jeter. I think Obi and Jeter will be fighting for minutes (which is a good problem to have!). I also see Marshall as a 10-15 minute guy but hopefully he makes a big leap for his senior year because I love watching him play! Overall looks super solid, very deep team w/ lots of possible lineup variations.

tdrake51
04-28-2015, 10:59 AM
I think K plays the best 5.

Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Amile

There will be some games where Plumlee or Obi will be needed to guard bigger centers, but Amile will be capable most nights.

I think Kennard will be the main backup for 1-3, with BI playing some 3 as well. I think we'll need his ball handling.


I honestly have no clue who gets the minutes between Obi, Plumlee and Jeter. So many unknowns. My guess is Marshall but it's really up in the air.

I think the person getting the fewest minutes, and eventually getting squeezed out of the rotation, will be whoever is least ready between Obi and Jeter.

Li_Duke
04-28-2015, 11:13 AM
My predictions is that we'll see many different starting line-ups this year. Coach K is going to mix and match depending on match-ups and who has been playing well recently. I do think the two line-ups we'll see most often are:

Plumlee
Jefferson
Ingram
Jones
Thornton

Although we won't have optimal spacing on offense, with so much length, this line-up could be incredibly difficult to score against. It's possible Obi would start over Plumlee. He's difficult for me to peg down since unlike all our past transfers (Jones, Curry, Hood), there hasn't been much mention of his abilities in practice.

Jefferson
Ingram
Jones
Allen
Thornton

Coach K likes to play 4 perimeter options. While we won't have much mass up front, we'll still be long. Jefferson has shown the ability to handle some NCAA centers (eg. Kaminiski), and I think with some weight-lifting over the summer, Ingram will be fine in that spot against some line-ups.

Kennard will be the 7th man. Unless Obi is further along than expected or Jeter is further behind than expected, I think they'll both get minutes as well.

Actual minutes prediction:
Plumlee (15) - He averaged under 10 minutes in each of the past 2 seasons. With Okafor gone, I see him getting a bump to 15, but not too much more beyond that as it might cut down on his effectiveness.
Jefferson (25) - He averaged just over 20 minutes in each of the past 2 seasons. I can't see him playing much more than 25 as he has a fairly high foul rate (3.5-4 fouls per 40 minutes).
Obi/Jeter (25) - Ingram will take some of the front court minutes, limiting these two to approximately 25 minutes per game.
Ingram (30) - He's going to be hard to sit, as he may end up being our best offensive option (as a freshman). I do worry about how his thin frame is going to hold up once we're in the rigours of conference play.
Jones (30) - I'm expecting him to take a big step next season. He won't be 2000 Carrawell, but that analogy won't look so bad this time next year.
Allen (30) - He might not always start, but he's going to play starter minutes. Big games from him are going to be even more frequent.
Kennard (25) - Some of our most enthusiastic posters have gotten to me. I think he essentially plays 6 man minutes.
Thornton (25) - As our lone true PG, he's going to get big minutes. But I think they'll be some teaching moments, where K will sit him and play a wing at the PG instead.

Summary prediction: We're going to be young, but our perimeter firepower will be one of the tops in the nation. Our front court will set screens and score primarily off put backs. This going to be one of our better defensive teams. Sweet 16 bound.

Troublemaker
04-28-2015, 11:17 AM
That said, my biggest question is whether Coach K can resist going to a 9-man rotation for the first time ever. By "rotation," I mean 10+ mpg (or pretty close, anyway), in close games after January 1.




The other interesting question - and this is an 8-man rotation vs a 9-man rotation - is Luke going to follow Scheyer's path where he is just so sound even though his recruiting ranking is not as high as some others? Let's hope so. It would be a great, uncommon problem to have.

Re: 8-man vs 9-man rotation, I think it boils down to two questions:

(1) Both of you guys mentioned this question already: Is the EKB forum rating Kennard properly?

My answer: Yes, he's good enough to be in the rotation as a freshman, even as a relatively lower-ranked recruit. I would actually guess ~20 mpg for him

(2) This next question has already gotten a lot of play on this forum: How much smallball will Duke play with Ingram at PF?

One of the reasons we're even talking about a 9-man rotation is because I think we are desirous of giving minutes to ALL of Amile, Chase, Marshall, and Sean. But, if Brandon gets significant minutes at PF, it's very likely that one of the true bigs gets squeezed out entirely.

My answer: Duke will play 15-20 mpg of smallball on average. It won't be a consistent total across every game. Sometimes Duke will be able to play it for 25-30 minutes. Sometimes, as with the games @UNC and @Louisville this previous season, Amile will have to handle the large bulk of the PF work.

So, if smallball is played (squeezing out one of the bigs) and Kennard is for real, that would mean an 8-man rotation. And that would be my guess.

Wander
04-28-2015, 11:44 AM
I would say there are two locks to start (Thornton and Ingram) and one near-lock to start (Jefferson). Thornton is the only PG, Ingram is the top-5 talent, and Jefferson is the senior captain and has logged by far the most starts of anyone on the team.


I agree these guys will probably start, but I don't see it as locks. Gerald Henderson was ranked 10 and didn't start his freshman season - Ingram will likely be ranked a little higher around 5 in the final RSCI rankings, but the 2007 team was also more in need of talent than 2016 will be. Jefferson didn't start the second half of last year, and it doesn't seem unreasonably farfetched to me that we end up with another small ball starting lineup - say, Thornton/Allen/Jones/Ingram/Obi (although Jefferson could also start at C in such a small lineup).

Kedsy
04-28-2015, 12:22 PM
The other interesting question - and this is an 8-man rotation vs a 9-man rotation - is Luke going to follow Scheyer's path where he is just so sound even though his recruiting ranking is not as high as some others?

The difference between Jon Scheyer and Luke Kennard as freshmen is that in 2006-07, despite Jon's #28 recruiting ranking he was (based on a combination of recruiting rank and experience) the 4th perimeter option going into the season, clearly expected to be part of the rotation. Though obviously he played his way into being more than that (2nd perimeter option, based on minutes played).

Luke Kennard will have more of a challenge to playing time, because based on his combination of recruiting ranking and experience, he'll likely be Duke's 5th perimeter option going into the season, giving him a more uphill road to getting the 20+ minutes many here are suggesting.

That said, he seems to have improved greatly over his senior year. Maybe when the final RSCI comes out, he'll have improved enough to be higher ranked. It's possible that the formula I've been using to combine recruiting rank and experience would essentially consider Luke, Grayson, Matt, and Derryck equivalent players, which would probably mean they'll all be in the rotation and minutes would be completely up in the air based on performance in practice and games. And in that case, Luke could possibly play big minutes, although I guess it wouldn't really be a "Scheyer path" if Luke was ranked, e.g., 18th.

Duvall
04-28-2015, 12:34 PM
I don't think there's a single guy who's a lock to start. Has that ever happened before?

(no one is a lock to start every year, each player has to earn their minutes, blah blah blah, you know what I mean)

Summer of 1982? Slightly different situation, of course.

azzefkram
04-28-2015, 01:06 PM
I'll play.

Locks: Ingram, Thornton
Near Locks: Jones, Jefferson

I think we'll start the season with PlumObiTer at the 5. I guess we'll see some JeBi at the 4 as well. I expect Allen to earn major minutes. Kennard might get squeezed early on unless a quality back-up PG emerges. I assume Vrank and Robinson will redshirt.

Based on much of this thread, it seems that many are sleeping on Jeter. I would think that a near top 10 player could earn rotation minutes but I will defer to Kedsy who has done much more research on this matter.

ChillinDuke
04-28-2015, 01:13 PM
I think some on here are overrating Derryck Thornton's game readiness. Don't get me wrong, I think he's very likely to start, but I don't know if he'll be so good and so poised to play 30mpg. Especially when I'm hearing posts on this Board (which I trust a lot) using words like "raw" and needs to "improve shooting". Again, I think he'll start, but I think he could also not be the dead-on lock to start that some are suggesting. Other than the paraphrased quotes I listed previously, I offer two additional pieces of loose information I just checked:

1) Thornton is ranked #17 at least in ESPN's new rankings after his reclassification. That's great, but it's no Tyus Jones (#4 ESPN last year). For example, where did Andre Dawkins shake out after he reclassed - somewhat comparable? Murphy was in the 40s, I believe. So Thornton might be better than either of those comps, but 30mpg seems high.
2) The team doesn't have a Quinn Cook that can take the pressure off of Thornton in running the show. So it's Thornton, Thornton, Thornton in a 30mpg scenario - which I'm not sold is sure to be a good scenario at all points this season given the makeup of the team.

I don't think I did a great job explaining that, but you probably get the general gist of my stream of consciousness.

So, I think Thornton will start but more like 20-25mpg. Which I think gives us flexibility to go the route we were sorta thinking about a few weeks ago with a PG of Kennard/Allen/maybe even Jones - which presumably gives us extra shooting on the floor. For simplicity's sake given how early it is, I'll take Thornton at 25mpg so I can split Kennard/Allen/Jones at 5 each being the "facilitator" mainly in charge of crossing half court.

I think Ingram is a lock to start - and probably at SF/wing to cause major matchup problems with his size there. Also provides shooting (which you presumably have from the wing anyway - he would add extra shooting if moved to the stretch 4 role). Which I think will happen throughout the season in appropriate situations. Give him 30mpg.

I think Amile is as likely as Thornton to start. I expect him to be laser-focused as a senior captain and think he will average an 8 and 8. If he can develop a 15-footer, man watch out. I think they'll mix and match Amile wherever they need to. C, PF, doesn't matter, he's going to see the floor. 30mpg easy.

I think you'll see Obi and Plumlee with similar roles. Depends more on who is better in the role. Plumlee offers height and perhaps defensive advantage due to that? Maybe. Obi offers rebounding and a wide body? Maybe. Hard to tell. I'd give them both 15mpg just for simplicity.

So now at:
Thornton - 25
Kennard - 5
Allen - 5
Jones - 5
Ingram - 30
Jefferson - 30
Plumlee - 15
Obi - 15

The remaining minutes are mainly on the wing and I guess a bit of inside duty. I'm expecting a big jump from Matt Jones. First, it should be clear to him that there will be a competition for minutes and he has a leg up by being a rising junior with experience - won't want to lose his advantage there. Second, we saw a nice progression from him year-over-year - I see no reason for that to stop. Third, he was outstanding on defense at times this season - Coach K is obviously not blind to this. Fourth, he showed an excellent aggressive drive a few times as the season progressed - I expect this to become more frequent with better finishing. Fifth, I believe he will continue to steady his three point shooting - always a premium at Duke.

I think Jones plays a lot. They'll find spots to mix and match him similar to Amile. I'd say an easy 30mpg total if it weren't for Allen. What to say about Grayson? The Wake game was superb. The Championship was the stuff dreams are made of. But a sample size of two is hard for me to label someone a clear budding star. However, he clearly has all the tools. Good size on the wing, fantastic athleticism, a pretty shooting stroke (that was fairly reliable as a freshman), clear passion on the court, the list goes on. Again for ease, I'm splitting them both at 20 additional minutes each.

Back to the inside duty - I don't know. Vrank I just can't see playing anything meaningful. Jeter - I just have no clue. He seems on the leaner side to bang down low from day one. Supposedly has nice footwork for a big, but I didn't see it the couple times I watched him in all-star games. I'll give Jeter a few minutes just to plug him in - but I wouldn't ink him into a major minutes.

So at:
Thornton - 25
Kennard - 5
Allen - 25
Jones - 25
Ingram - 30
Jefferson - 30
Plumlee - 15
Obi - 15
Jeter - 5

I still have 25 minutes left and can't decide between bumping Plumlee and Obi a bit. I'd probably give Jefferson and Jones more as they are "safer" bets - I'm doubling down on their showing solid improvement next year.

I end with:
Thornton - 25
Kennard - 10
Allen - 26
Jones - 30
Ingram - 33
Jefferson - 35
Plumlee - 20
Obi - 16
Jeter - 5

This fits loosely with Kedsy's theory on 8 players max rotation for K (more or less disregarding Jeter). Also looks like a primetime lineup of Thornton/Allen/Jones/Ingram/Jefferson. That's my early guess. If you're still reading these words, appreciate the dedication.

- Chillin

Mike Corey
04-28-2015, 01:22 PM
Great, fun thread.

My guess is that, come March, we're looking at a lineup of

Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Jeter

With Allen, Kennard, and Plumlee and Obi getting the rest of the PT.

I think Allen and Kennard will play a ton, as K will have a lot of versatility with this lineup...

Saratoga2
04-28-2015, 01:26 PM
In general, guys who have experience and have performed well or fairly well will get some presidence over newbies, provided skills are close between the players in each category.

We have 5 experienced guys on the team. Matt has demonstrated that he is a very good defender. On offense his shot was unconventional and he was neither uicki enough nor had the hops to drive to the basket. If he works on his outside shot this off season, he has a very good chance of playing significant minutes.

Amile is also a good to very good defender and smart rebounder. He has been reticent to shoot anything but on cuts to the basket or putbacks. He would really need to show a mid range shot to beat out first class talent but still should get significant minutes.

Grayson was a freshman learning how to play the game and did grow from the experience of last year. His defense really improved as he cut down on the cheap fouls and his offense include a decent outside shot, the best finish at the basket on the team and he is an excellent foul shooter to boot. Maybe he doesn't start but with his talent he has to get significant minutes.

Marshall is in his alst year and has size and athleticism but to my mind he somehow hasn't developed that well defensively, getting himself out of position and not really boxing players out that well. His offense is limited to dunks and even then he seems compelled to bounce the ball before going up. He is unlikely to start and his minutes may be as limited as they were in last seasons effort.

Sean has played a year of college ball and has another year of practice against really good Duke players. He is a massive guy and it must be intimidating to play against such a strong guy. We really don't know much about his offense, but I doubt it is any more limited than Marshall's. He is likely to shine enough to play more minutes than Marshall.


With the Newbies, some are just so talented or fit a position of need that they will wind up as starters and get major minutes.

That is likely the case with Thornton at PG where we have a very limited alternative of Grayson or Luke. Thornton will have to develop on the fly and may not have as complete a game as Tyus to start but he still should get a lot of minutes.

Brandon fills a need a small forward. The alternative there would be Matt or possibly Luke. With his skill level, I think he is going to start and get major minutes. If we go to small ball, he could move inside at te 4 but I see him now as a fantastic point forward or big shooting guard.

After those two it gets more dicey.

Luke is a terrific talent and offers offense and has handle to avoid TO's so is an excellent SG prospect. If he can master the defenses he is likely to get significant minutes. Will he displace Matt and Grayson as a starter? Possibly.

Chase has the size and fluidity to be a really good candidate for PF. The little I have seen of him to date leaves me wondering if he is a physical enough player to instantly make an impact. I see him as needing to develop his skill set at the 4 and possibly play the 5 when in a small ball set. It is dicey aand too early to call the possibility of him starting in the place of Amile,

Antonio is another newbie with good size to play C but he may need to develop to surplant Marshall or Sean in the lineup. I don't expect him to get significant minutes to start the year but he may fool us and force his way into a more significant role as the season develops.

Justin is the wild card here. At 6'7" currently (is he still growing?), he may develop sufficient skills to get minor minutes as the season moves on. He is probably have to be content to play hard, develop and be ready should any of our fist line players go down with injuries.


Based on that rather long winded rational, I would expect the starting lineup to be as follows:

PG: Thornton
SG: Kennard
SF: Ingram
PF: Jefferson
C: Obi

First off the bench:

PG: Allen
SG: Allen
SF: Jones
PF: Jeter
C: Plumley

Role players:

C: Vrankovic(SP?)
SF: Robinson

Wander
04-28-2015, 01:28 PM
Luke Kennard will have more of a challenge to playing time, because based on his combination of recruiting ranking and experience, he'll likely be Duke's 5th perimeter option going into the season, giving him a more uphill road to getting the 20+ minutes many here are suggesting.

OK, but you're missing an important part, which is that he needs to play so we can all do the Star Wars thing with Sean. Or at least have one really good game around Dec 18.

Neals384
04-28-2015, 01:33 PM
Actual minutes prediction:
Plumlee (15) - He averaged under 10 minutes in each of the past 2 seasons. With Okafor gone, I see him getting a bump to 15, but not too much more beyond that as it might cut down on his effectiveness.
Jefferson (25) - He averaged just over 20 minutes in each of the past 2 seasons. I can't see him playing much more than 25 as he has a fairly high foul rate (3.5-4 fouls per 40 minutes).
Obi/Jeter (25) - Ingram will take some of the front court minutes, limiting these two to approximately 25 minutes per game.
Ingram (30) - He's going to be hard to sit, as he may end up being our best offensive option (as a freshman). I do worry about how his thin frame is going to hold up once we're in the rigours of conference play.
Jones (30) - I'm expecting him to take a big step next season. He won't be 2000 Carrawell, but that analogy won't look so bad this time next year.
Allen (30) - He might not always start, but he's going to play starter minutes. Big games from him are going to be even more frequent.
Kennard (25) - Some of our most enthusiastic posters have gotten to me. I think he essentially plays 6 man minutes.
Thornton (25) - As our lone true PG, he's going to get big minutes. But I think they'll be some teaching moments, where K will sit him and play a wing at the PG instead.

Li, your minutes total 205.

JNort
04-28-2015, 01:55 PM
This imo is who our starters will be on day 1 and their immediate backup at said position.

PG: Thornton/ Grayson/ Luke
SG: Matt/ Grayson/ Luke
SF: Ingram/ Matt/ Grayson/ Luke
PF: Amile/ Ingram/ Sean
C: Plumlee/ Jeter

Only one I'm not sold on is Plumlee/Jeter

Other most viable option is:

PG: Thornton
SG: Grayson
SF: Matt
PF: Ingram
C: Jeter/ Plumlee

Notes:

I really think Ingram will be playing PF come March. Luke should struggle to make significant pt unless the 2nd lineup happens sooner rather than later.


Obi is a wild card cause I don't know to much about him.

Grayson to me is very obviously the backup at pg. This year in blowouts when Quinn and Tyus came off it was Grayson running point. Is that K grooming him? I think at minimum it means he is ahead of Matt for pg minutes.

Coach also liked Matt at SF a lot this year and I look for that to continue at some point.

Chemistry with Thornton, Grayson and Ingram on the court together. How well will they work together? All 3 are aggressive offensively and like the ball. This year became so special because everyone had a role and played it well. We will need the same again or it could be another early March exit

lotusland
04-28-2015, 02:09 PM
Ah memories! Those of us who predicted that Cook would play a LOT of minutes at SG can pat themselves on the back. That said, the thread linked above just illustrates how crazy a year last year was. Sulaimon was widely predicted to be a 25+ mpg guy, and there was debate over whether Winslow or Ojeleye would get the backup PF minutes.

Granted, I don't think anyone would have predicted that Sulaimon would get dismissed from the team. Many predicted Ojeleye was a transfer risk, but I don't know that anyone outright expected it to happen. Crazy how things changed over the course of the season, and crazy that the team seemed to find its identity at just the right time!

I wonder if Semi had stayed if Duke would have recruited Ingram and if he would have come to Duke. I'm guessing the answer is yes to both which is why Ojeleye probably made the right call by transferring. I'm still a little puzzled that he chose SMU though but I wish him well there.

CDu
04-28-2015, 02:29 PM
I wonder if Semi had stayed if Duke would have recruited Ingram and if he would have come to Duke. I'm guessing the answer is yes to both which is why Ojeleye probably made the right call by transferring. I'm still a little puzzled that he chose SMU though but I wish him well there.

I don't think Ojeleye was likely to become a factor at Duke - at least not by next year. I certainly don't think he would have kept us from going after (and landing) Ingram. So yes, if his goal was to get significant playing time, he made the right decision.

As for why SMU? My guesses are:
- deeply religiously-based university
- much closer to home
- lower-tier program (i.e., much better chance of playing time) but still a big-time coach

SMU certainly doesn't have the academic chops of Duke, but if the three things above are important to him, they certainly seem a good fit.

Li_Duke
04-28-2015, 02:33 PM
Li, your minutes total 205.

Yep, we're not blowing as many teams out this year. :) Kennard at 20 minutes per game then.

lotusland
04-28-2015, 02:39 PM
I think the only sure starter is Thornton purely out of necessity. Ingram is probably the second most likely based on his reputation coming in but will he play mostly 3 or 4? I see no reason Ingram could not play a stretch 4 with Plumlee or Obi at 5. If Jeter gets minutes at 5 then Amile would pair well with him at 4 since Jeter is supposed to be a decent shooter and Amile is a reliable post defender and rebounder. That lineup would allow Ingram to play at the 3 spot. Jeter, Jefferson and Ingram might get pushed around a little but they could also block some shots with their length. A red shirt season for Robinson and Vrancovic would be sensibile from Duke's standpoint but that hurts them if they decide to transfer later. Still it's probably better than burning a whole season for some meaningless minutes against cupcakes or mop up minutes at end of games that are already decided. Center seems the hardest position to rank at this point. Vrankovic is 5th behind (in no particular order) MP3, Obi, Jeter and Jefferson. I don't think Jefferson will start at center but he'll probably end up playing more minutes at 5 than at least one of the other three potential starters.

PSurprise
04-28-2015, 02:45 PM
Li, your minutes total 205.

Overtime every game. THAT's quite a prediction! :)

CDu
04-28-2015, 02:48 PM
Overtime every game. THAT's quite a prediction! :)

Actually only overtime every fifth game (every game would mean 225 minutes averaged). That's not at all bold! ;)

PSurprise
04-28-2015, 02:53 PM
Actually only overtime every fifth game (every game would mean 225 minutes averaged). That's not at all bold! ;)

Touche! But what would that mean...6-7 overtime games? Not sure I could handle that over the course of a season...just as long as we won them all!

sagegrouse
04-28-2015, 02:56 PM
Li, your minutes total 205.

I'll answer for him: overtime games and/or injuries.

CDu
04-28-2015, 02:58 PM
Touche! But what would that mean...6-7 overtime games? Not sure I could handle that over the course of a season...just as long as we won them all!

Yes I will not handle that many overtimes well!

Neals384
04-28-2015, 03:22 PM
OK, here's what we have so far...




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean



gumbomoop
22
25
16
30
25
22
18
25
18
201


neals384
25
30
20
25
20
15
20
30
15
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
30
25
10
20
30
20
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
200


CDu
28
28
16
28
22
24
12
22
20
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
200


Average
27.1
29.2
12.1
27.8
25.1
15.4
17.5
27.8
18.1



Std Dev
4.1
2.4
5.3
2.7
3.1
5.8
3.1
3.0
3.8




Not surprising that Chase and Luke have the highest standard deviation, meaning there is less agreement among our predictions than with the other players.

A couple footnotes:
1) Someone (not sure who) said their prediction is "once conference play starts". So that's not really comparable to those whose predictions are for all 40 games (we will play 40, right?)
2) In predicting minutes that total 200, my assumption is that you total each players minutes for the year and divide by the total games played by the team. However, if you look up a player's statistics on most online stat sites, you will see minutes played based on the actual games where that player appeared. In other words, if a player averages 10 minutes in the 20 games where he plays, and has 20 DNPs, then we should figure that player as 5 minutes average (otherwise totals will be > 200).

GGLC
04-28-2015, 04:05 PM
I'll give the minutes distribution a shot. I've already mentioned that I don't see any scenario in which at least one of Matt and Grayson doesn't start. I also think a few people are sleeping on Marshall's defensive contributions and his overall development as a senior familiar with K's system.

I'd expect to see something like this:

Thornton (25)/Kennard (10)/Allen (5)
Jones (15)/Allen (20)/Kennard (5)
Ingram (25)/Jones (15)
Jefferson (30)/Ingram (5)/Jeter (5)
Plumlee (20)/Obi (15)/Jefferson (5)

That yields:

Thornton -- 25 mpg
Jones -- 30 mpg
Ingram -- 30 mpg
Jefferson -- 35 mpg
Plumlee -- 20 mpg

Allen -- 25 mpg
Kennard -- 15 mpg
Obi -- 15 mpg
Jeter -- 5 mpg

I can see Allen picking up ~5 mpg at the expense of Kennard and Jeter picking up ~5 mpg at the expense of the other post players, depending on how things shake out.

superdave
04-28-2015, 05:14 PM
The difference between Jon Scheyer and Luke Kennard as freshmen is that in 2006-07, despite Jon's #28 recruiting ranking he was (based on a combination of recruiting rank and experience) the 4th perimeter option going into the season, clearly expected to be part of the rotation. Though obviously he played his way into being more than that (2nd perimeter option, based on minutes played).

Luke Kennard will have more of a challenge to playing time, because based on his combination of recruiting ranking and experience, he'll likely be Duke's 5th perimeter option going into the season, giving him a more uphill road to getting the 20+ minutes many here are suggesting.

That said, he seems to have improved greatly over his senior year. Maybe when the final RSCI comes out, he'll have improved enough to be higher ranked. It's possible that the formula I've been using to combine recruiting rank and experience would essentially consider Luke, Grayson, Matt, and Derryck equivalent players, which would probably mean they'll all be in the rotation and minutes would be completely up in the air based on performance in practice and games. And in that case, Luke could possibly play big minutes, although I guess it wouldn't really be a "Scheyer path" if Luke was ranked, e.g., 18th.

Have you back tested your formula based on the outcome of this season? I know it was a little screwy with Rasheed, Matt and Grayson. But I would be interested if you have thought about it since the season wrapped.

CDu
04-28-2015, 05:26 PM
Have you back tested your formula based on the outcome of this season? I know it was a little screwy with Rasheed, Matt and Grayson. But I would be interested if you have thought about it since the season wrapped.

I would think the early season numbers would go against, as Jones played as much or more than Sulaimon despite being lower-rated AND less experienced. But I would consider Sulaimon an outlier in general, just by virtue of his dismissal.

Kedsy
04-28-2015, 06:00 PM
Have you back tested your formula based on the outcome of this season? I know it was a little screwy with Rasheed, Matt and Grayson. But I would be interested if you have thought about it since the season wrapped.

Yeah, if you take into account Rasheed leaving and Justise being capable of playing PF (something I wasn't sure of when I posted it last summer), it was pretty close to right on. But since we only ended up with 8 players, it probably wasn't that big of a test of the formula.

When this year's final RSCI comes out, I intend to revive the thread.

rocketeli
04-28-2015, 07:16 PM
I think K plays the best 5.

Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Amile

There will be some games where Plumlee or Obi will be needed to guard bigger centers, but Amile will be capable most nights.

I think Kennard will be the main backup for 1-3, with BI playing some 3 as well. I think we'll need his ball handling.


I honestly have no clue who gets the minutes between Obi, Plumlee and Jeter. So many unknowns. My guess is Marshall but it's really up in the air.

I think the person getting the fewest minutes, and eventually getting squeezed out of the rotation, will be whoever is least ready between Obi and Jeter.

What a fun game. I want to play!
I was going to write a long post but the above mostly sums it up. to add:
After 30+ years of watch K coach, he has no problem going small and so I agree the best five above would most likely play the most.
Duke may not have "positions" as we are reminded here from time to time, but it sure has understudies. In the front court it could be Jefferson backed with Jeter, (approx 25-30 minutes to share) and then for the beef Plumlee/Obi. (10-15 minutes, maybe more when we need more size)
I really don't have much knowledge of what kind of player Obi is now. He was a 2 star recruit out of high school and the only video I could find from college was a 30 second clip when he won freshman of the week, which demonstrated that he cannot leap at all, but can catch a pass, can shoot a layup and has some rudimentary post moves. Maybe he's a lot better now and has added some offense, or maybe he's a practice player. Who knows?
Vrank and Robinson will either red shirt or hold down the bench their first year.
Thornton will start and play at point unless something very odd happens, because what other options do we have?
Outside players: Ingram (he's pipestem thin and will get mauled, but he brings too much offensively to sit) M Jones (K loves, loves him) and Allen (tons of talent) will most likely either start or get most of the minutes, with Kennard backing the three main guys up.
there will be some various combos, but I'm ready to go out on a limb and say we won't see much of Jefferson, Obi and Plumlee on the floor at the same time.

Henderson
04-28-2015, 07:42 PM
I know from experience how bad I am at predicting lineups, let alone minutes, so I won't try either. Plus I've seen how fluid these things are over the course of a season, crystalizing only eventually, and even then not completely.

So instead, I can only think in broad categories.

We've got 5 "small" players (including the forward wing) for 3 positions -- Thornton, Ingram, Allen, Kennard, and Jones.

Then we've got 4 "big" players (assuming Vrankovic either redshirts or plays a neglibible role): Jeter, Obi, Jefferson, and Plumlee.

I predict we'll see a lot of these parts moving around during non-conference play, with the exception of Thornton and Ingram, who will get all the minutes they can handle. Then I predict a winnowing process whereby a core is established, resulting in a concentration of minutes in the hands of 7 players, two of whom will be Thornton and Ingram. And I have no idea how that will shake out in the end. But it's gonna be fun to watch.

Kedsy
04-28-2015, 09:54 PM
I really don't have much knowledge of what kind of player Obi is now. He was a 2 star recruit out of high school and the only video I could find from college was a 30 second clip when he won freshman of the week, which demonstrated that he cannot leap at all, but can catch a pass, can shoot a layup and has some rudimentary post moves. Maybe he's a lot better now and has added some offense, or maybe he's a practice player. Who knows?

I know I've said this before, both in this thread and elsewhere, but Sean Obi was the third best defensive rebounder in the nation, as a freshman. I know it was at Rice, but still I'll be very surprised if he's just "a practice player," whether he's "added some offense" or not.

gurufrisbee
04-28-2015, 10:16 PM
I earlier proposed the starting line up but left out actual minutes prediction - but now that there is a cool chart, I want in.

Thornton (28)
Allen (28)
Ingram (28)
Amile (24)
Jeter (20)

Matt (24)
Kennard (16)
Obi (12)
MP3 (16)
Vrank (2)
Robinson (2)

JNort
04-28-2015, 10:49 PM
PG: Thornton/ Grayson/ Luke
SG: Matt/ Grayson/ Luke
SF: Ingram/ Matt/ Grayson/ Luke
PF: Amile/ Ingram/ Sean
C: Plumlee/ Jeter

Thornton 34
Ingram 33
Grayson 31
Matt 27
Jeter 20
Plumlee 15
Amile 23
Luke 9
Obi 6
Sean and Nick get the final 2 mins

I hope I got the mins total correct.

ncexnyc
04-28-2015, 10:58 PM
I’ll bite.
Derryck will get 25 mpg, he’s basically the only true PG we have.

Grayson will get 25 mpg, just too much talent.

Luke will get 20 mpg, the second best handle should get him some burn as the back-up PG.

Matt will get a solid 25 mpg, he knows the system and is a bulldog on D.

Brandon will get 25 mpg, don’t think he can handle more, but he might be forced to if the bigs fall flat on their collective face.

MP3 will get 25 mpg, the kid is a senior who plays hard and knows the system.

Amile will get 30 mpg, does the dirty work and can probably steal some more time if he can hit a short jumper.

Sean will get 15 mpg, a brusier who can rebound and free up some outside shooters with a brutal screen or two.

Chase will get 10 mpg, seems a bit young, but he can steal minutes if he can consistently score.

Kedsy
04-29-2015, 12:24 AM
Sean and Nick get the final 2 mins

If you mean Sean Kelly, he's a senior this year, so I doubt he'll get any minutes at all next season.

Kedsy
04-29-2015, 01:25 AM
The following table may help those in their minute-guesses. It shows the average minutes per game of Duke's top three minute-getters for all 35 of Coach K's seasons.

I've put our PG's minutes in bold. For years when it was unclear who our PG was (e.g., 2012, 2009, 1994), I bolded the starter who had the most assists.



Year #1 mpg #2 mpg #3 mpg
2015 35.8 33.8 30.3
2014 32.9 30.7 29.8
2013 34.7 33.6 32.3
2012 33.2 30.2 28.4
2011 34.8 34.0 25.6
2010 36.8 35.9 35.5
2009 32.8 32.2 29.7
2008 30.9 28.6 28.3 (PG=27.7)
2007 35.3 33.7 32.4
2006 37.1 33.3 32.3
2005 37.3 34.5 33.6
2004 35.4 31.1 31.1
2003 36.0 30.7 30.7
2002 35.1 33.6 32.4
2001 34.9 31.8 29.2
2000 35.6 35.5 34.0
1999 31.0 31.0 29.3
1998 28.8 28.2 24.6
1997 31.3 29.5 26.7
1996 34.9 34.6 31.9
1995 35.2 29.5 28.7
1994 35.7 31.0 30.5
1993 35.6 31.9 31.6
1992 33.6 32.2 30.9
1991 34.7 30.2 24.8
1990 33.4 31.5 29.9
1989 33.2 30.4 29.6
1988 32.5 29.6 28.7
1987 35.6 33.2 29.0
1986 33.1 30.2 29.8
1985 36.0 33.8 30.2
1984 38.4 36.3 33.2
1983 35.8 28.0 27.4
1982 38.4 37.3 34.6
1981 34.6 34.3 33.1 (PG=32.8)

-AVG- 34.6 32.2 30.3


Note: In 2011, Kyrie Irving played 27.5 mpg but only played 11 games. I believe had he not been injured he would have played at least that many minutes (probably more) and thus our third-leading minute-getter would have exceeded the 25.6 mpg in the table.

The average mpg for the above bolded players (PGs) over Coach K's 35 years is 33.0 mpg.

What I glean from the above data:

(1) Our leading minute-getter is likely to play closer to 35 mpg than 30 mpg;
(2) Our second leading minute-getter is very likely to play at least 30 mpg and probably a fair amount more;
(3) Our third leading minute-getter is likely to exceed 30 mpg, and is very unlikely to play as little as 25 mpg (though that last is possible);
(4) Our PG is likely to play more than 30 mpg, much more likely to play significantly more than 30 mpg than to play significantly less than 30 mpg.

So it might be worthwhile to keep that in mind when making your predictions, or when judging other people's predictions.

mr. synellinden
04-29-2015, 02:45 AM
I'll prognosticate.

Ingram 32
Allen 32
Thornton 30
Jones 26
Obi 24
Jefferson 22
Kennard 16
Plumlee 10
Jeter 8

Troublemaker
04-29-2015, 03:07 PM
Here's my late April stab at minutes:





Starters



Rotation



in blowouts


25
Fr
DThornton

20
Fr
Kennard






30
So
Allen










35
Fr
Ingram

30
Jr
MJones

0
Fr
Robinson


30
Sr
Jefferson





0
So
Obi


20
Fr
Jeter

10
Sr
Marshall


Rs
Vrankovic





As I wrote upthread, I think Duke will play smallball about half the time (on average), so only 60 mpg total for the bigs. Amile will play some center as well. This allows all of our perimeter players to receive at least 20 mpg. They ARE the strength of the team, imo.
Here, I have the ordering of true centers being Jeter > MP3 > Obi, but that's a complete guess. I really wouldn't be surprised by any order, including Obi starting.
Why Jeter? I had previously wrote that I didn't think he'd be in the rotation freshman year, but his measurements at the Hoop Summit (239 lbs, 9'2" standing reach) surprised me. I thought he would be much smaller, but those are legitimate center numbers. If he's 239 in April, he can put on a few pounds of good weight and be 245 in October.
Chase also has a mid-range jumper in his arsenal, relieving Amile of the need to develop one. (Although Amile should try still!) MP3 doesn't have a mid-range jumper, and I doubt Sean has one.
Luke will play a decent amount of PG. Against zones, for example, he might be the better option at point.
Brandon will be Duke's best player and will play 35+ minutes in competitive games. Duke will use him in all sorts of ways, including being a secondary ball-handler who can bring the ball upcourt and someone we set ball screens for.

mr. synellinden
04-29-2015, 03:28 PM
Here's my late April stab at minutes:





Starters



Rotation



in blowouts


25
Fr
DThornton

20
Fr
Kennard






30
So
Allen










35
Fr
Ingram

30
Jr
MJones

0
Fr
Robinson


30
Sr
Jefferson





0
So
Obi


20
Fr
Jeter

10
Sr
Marshall


Rs
Vrankovic





As I wrote upthread, I think Duke will play smallball about half the time (on average), so only 60 mpg total for the bigs. Amile will play some center as well. This allows all of our perimeter players to receive at least 20 mpg. They ARE the strength of the team, imo.
Here, I have the ordering of true centers being Jeter > MP3 > Obi, but that's a complete guess. I really wouldn't be surprised by any order, including Obi starting.
Why Jeter? I had previously wrote that I didn't think he'd be in the rotation freshman year, but his measurements at the Hoop Summit (239 lbs, 9'2" standing reach) surprised me. I thought he would be much smaller, but those are legitimate center numbers. If he's 239 in April, he can put on a few pounds of good weight and be 245 in October.
Chase also has a mid-range jumper in his arsenal, relieving Amile of the need to develop one. (Although Amile should try still!) MP3 doesn't have a mid-range jumper, and I doubt Sean has one.
Luke will play a decent amount of PG. Against zones, for example, he might be the better option at point.
Brandon will be Duke's best player and will play 35+ minutes in competitive games. Duke will use him in all sorts of ways, including being a secondary ball-handler who can bring the ball upcourt and someone we set ball screens for.


It seems to me that many people on this board are underestimating Obi. As Kedsy has pointed out a few times, he was third in the nation in defensive rebounding as a freshman in a conference where he faced some strong competition. Look at his game log. He had 10 and 12 in 23 minutes against Texas (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/66760/year/2014/sean-obi). I think he starts, and at the very least plays 20 minutes a game. His main challenge will be avoiding foul trouble.

MChambers
04-29-2015, 03:36 PM
It seems to me that many people on this board are underestimating Obi. As Kedsy has pointed out a few times, he was third in the nation in defensive rebounding as a freshman in a conference where he faced some strong competition. Look at his game log. He had 10 and 12 in 23 minutes against Texas (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/66760/year/2014/sean-obi). I think he starts, and at the very least plays 20 minutes a game. His main challenge will be avoiding foul trouble.
There is also the question of whether he can play defense to the level Duke demands. We know Jefferson and Plumlee can, but we don't know that about Obi or Jeter, or any of the freshman for that matter. The good news is that all of the returning players are effective defensive players.

Troublemaker
04-29-2015, 03:47 PM
It seems to me that many people on this board are underestimating Obi. As Kedsy has pointed out a few times, he was third in the nation in defensive rebounding as a freshman in a conference where he faced some strong competition. Look at his game log. He had 10 and 12 in 23 minutes against Texas (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/66760/year/2014/sean-obi). I think he starts, and at the very least plays 20 minutes a game. His main challenge will be avoiding foul trouble.

That's quite possible. Like I said, I wouldn't be surprised by any ordering of the centers.

It just depends on what the coaching staff most wants to see out of the center position. If they want a dominant rebounder and a wide body to screen with, Obi starts.

Gilby_10
04-29-2015, 03:50 PM
IMO, you have to go Thorton, Jones, Ingram, Jefferson, Plumlee. Now I understand this wont be the most prolific offensive team, but it is the best defensive team, and what won the national championship this year. Vrank needs to redshirt, You can bring Obi and Jeter off the bench as bigs as well as greyson and luke at the guard, this might be the most versatile team in a while in terms of the amount of starting lineups you can throw out there, which is why coach K is getting paid the big bucks and we are not. Also how much to we trust these other guards to run the pg, are we going to have to put too much trust in a guy who wasn't even planning on graduating for a whole year before last week. It should be another fun season and I look forward to many discussions about the repeat.

flyingdutchdevil
04-29-2015, 04:10 PM
There is also the question of whether he can play defense to the level Duke demands. We know Jefferson and Plumlee can, but we don't know that about Obi or Jeter, or any of the freshman for that matter. The good news is that all of the returning players are effective defensive players.

Is this really true? Plumlee is a solid rebounder and athletic enough to contest plenty of shots, but I'm not sure he's a really good defender. AJ is definitely a really good defender and wouldn't be surprised to see him as an 'elite' defender next year (ala Lance Thomas).

But I'm hesitant to call Plumlee a really good defender.

I think he do know a decent amount about Obi. He's an excellent rebounder, an okay scorer at the very least, and he does have a year of BCS basketball under his belt. Also, transfers are often better than we think. Hood, Curry, and D. Jones all surpassed expectations in their first year at Duke.

I'm giving Obi the benefit of the doubt and putting him as a starter. After Thornton and Ingram, he's the next shoo-in for me as a starter.

luvdahops
04-29-2015, 04:18 PM
That's quite possible. Like I said, I wouldn't be surprised by any ordering of the centers.

It just depends on what the coaching staff most wants to see out of the center position. If they want a dominant rebounder and a wide body to screen with, Obi starts.

Keep in mind that all of our previous transfers have averaged at least [23] mpg in their first seasons at Duke. The comparisons are not apples to apples of course (e.g. McLeod and Jones came in as juniors in terms of eligibility, rosters and PT opportunities vary), but they nonetheless suggest that the staff generally does not look at transfers unless they expect them to be impact players. FWIW, I doubt Marshall would have put up close to the same numbers at Rice.

MChambers
04-29-2015, 04:34 PM
Is this really true? Plumlee is a solid rebounder and athletic enough to contest plenty of shots, but I'm not sure he's a really good defender. AJ is definitely a really good defender and wouldn't be surprised to see him as an 'elite' defender next year (ala Lance Thomas).

But I'm hesitant to call Plumlee a really good defender.

I think he do know a decent amount about Obi. He's an excellent rebounder, an okay scorer at the very least, and he does have a year of BCS basketball under his belt. Also, transfers are often better than we think. Hood, Curry, and D. Jones all surpassed expectations in their first year at Duke.

I'm giving Obi the benefit of the doubt and putting him as a starter. After Thornton and Ingram, he's the next shoo-in for me as a starter.
Not to pick a nit, but I just said all of our returning players are effective defenders, not really good. (I think Jones is a very good defender, BTW.) But our defense was a lot more effective this year with Marshall than Jahlil, and I'm guessing it will be better next year with Marshall than Jeter or Obi. If they're better team defenders, that will be good news, of course.

gam7
04-29-2015, 05:23 PM
Not to pick a nit, but I just said all of our returning players are effective defenders, not really good. (I think Jones is a very good defender, BTW.) But our defense was a lot more effective this year with Marshall than Jahlil, and I'm guessing it will be better next year with Marshall than Jeter or Obi. If they're better team defenders, that will be good news, of course.

With Plumlee, Obi, Jefferson, Jeter, I feel pretty confident in saying that we will be a very good defensive rebounding team at the very least.

Kedsy
04-29-2015, 05:53 PM
With Plumlee, Obi, Jefferson, Jeter, I feel pretty confident in saying that we will be a very good defensive rebounding team at the very least.

Assuming he plays decent minutes, with Obi alone I'm pretty confident we'll be a very good defensive rebounding team.

Kenneth Faried played in the OVC, from a qualitative standpoint, probably not as good as Conference USA (the conference in which Sean Obi played his freshman year). Faried's senior year he averaged 14.5 rpg. And his defensive rebounding percentage of 31.4% that season is pretty comparable to what Sean Obi put up at Rice (30.2%). I'm not saying Obi is the Manimal, but I really don't think his defensive rebounding prowess is a mirage, either. The question remains how much Sean will play for Duke this coming season, but for defensive rebounding alone, I'm hoping it's a fair amount.

pfrduke
04-29-2015, 06:59 PM
Assuming he plays decent minutes, with Obi alone I'm pretty confident we'll be a very good defensive rebounding team.

Kenneth Faried played in the OVC, from a qualitative standpoint, probably not as good as Conference USA (the conference in which Sean Obi played his freshman year). Faried's senior year he averaged 14.5 rpg. And his defensive rebounding percentage of 31.4% that season is pretty comparable to what Sean Obi put up at Rice (30.2%). I'm not saying Obi is the Manimal, but I really don't think his defensive rebounding prowess is a mirage, either. The question remains how much Sean will play for Duke this coming season, but for defensive rebounding alone, I'm hoping it's a fair amount.

This is not a perfectly relevant comparison, but Arsalan Kazemi played 3 years at Rice. His sophomore and junior years he was 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, at 30.8% and 29.0%. After his junior year, he did a grad transfer to Oregon - not Duke, certainly, but a major conference team that played in the NCAA tournament. Kazemi played 27 mpg for Oregon and completely sustained his defensive rebounding percentage, staying at 29.0% and finishing 1st in the nation that season. He was also a Pac-12 All-Defensive team player that season.

The list of freshmen who have defensive rebounding percentages of 30% or better in the last 12 years has two names on it - Sean Obi and Kenneth Faried.* If you expand that to freshmen and sophomores, you add Blake Griffin, Kazemi, Devin Williams (WV) and Josh Hawkinson (WSU) (both Williams and Hawkinson did it this year) to the list and that's it. What Obi did last season on the defensive glass is truly elite, and it's a skill that should translate. Whether he does other things well enough to command playing time remains to be seen, but he should be a monster on the defensive glass when he's in the game.

*Michael Beasley had 29.9% as a freshman, too.

CDu
04-29-2015, 08:13 PM
This is not a perfectly relevant comparison, but Arsalan Kazemi played 3 years at Rice. His sophomore and junior years he was 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, at 30.8% and 29.0%. After his junior year, he did a grad transfer to Oregon - not Duke, certainly, but a major conference team that played in the NCAA tournament. Kazemi played 27 mpg for Oregon and completely sustained his defensive rebounding percentage, staying at 29.0% and finishing 1st in the nation that season. He was also a Pac-12 All-Defensive team player that season.

The list of freshmen who have defensive rebounding percentages of 30% or better in the last 12 years has two names on it - Sean Obi and Kenneth Faried.* If you expand that to freshmen and sophomores, you add Blake Griffin, Kazemi, Devin Williams (WV) and Josh Hawkinson (WSU) (both Williams and Hawkinson did it this year) to the list and that's it. What Obi did last season on the defensive glass is truly elite, and it's a skill that should translate. Whether he does other things well enough to command playing time remains to be seen, but he should be a monster on the defensive glass when he's in the game.

*Michael Beasley had 29.9% as a freshman, too.

Great stuff pfrduke!

I agree with both you and Kedsy: rebounding (especially defensive rebounding) is a skill that translates better than almost any other skill with an increase in competition level. IF Obi plays a good number of minutes, there is no reason to expect him to see a big drop in rebounding. The question will be whether his other skills (offense, defense) will be good enough to allow him to take advantage of what should be a BIG edge in rebounding over Plumlee and (likely) Jeter. That certainly remains to be seen. But IF he plays, he should rack up the rebounds.

Neals384
04-29-2015, 11:17 PM
Here's the latest "cool spreadsheet." If I missed anyone, please holler.

By the way, I revised some of my numbers after hearing other's comments; I hope this is allowed (if not, I'll go back the my first guesses.)




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Antonio
Walk-ons
Total


gumbomoop
22
25
16
30
25
22
18
25
18
0
0
201


neals384
25
30
13
25
25
15
17
30
20
0
0
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
30
25
10
20
30
20
0
0
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
0
200


CDu
28
28
16
28
22
24
12
22
20
0
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
0
200


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
0
200


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
2
2
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
0
2
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
0
200


mr. synellinden
22
32
8
30
32
16
10
26
24
0
0
200


Troublemaker
30
35
20
25
30
20
10
30
0
0
0
200


Average
27.2
29.8
12.4
27.8
26.9
15.7
16.6
27.5
15.8
0.1
0.3



Std Dev
4.4
2.9
5.5
3.0
2.9
4.9
4.3
2.7
6.7
0.5
0.7

Skitzle
04-30-2015, 09:22 AM
I think there are really 2 big questions about this years rotation.

These are the guys we know will get the lions share of the minutes at the 1,2,3,4 Positions (160 minutes)
Jefferson, Allen, Jones, Thornton, Ingram

1. How good is Kennard?
It's also a corollary to "How good is Thornton?" On paper, he's the best backup point guard on the roster, if he plays well he can get as many as 18 minutes a game, 10-12 minutes per game seems reasonable.

2) Who will emerge from the Plumlee/Jeter/Obi Threesome?

This will be an interesting depth chart battle in the preseason and early season.
My guess is two of these guys will split the majority of the minutes. Its more likely to be 20/20/0 then 13/13/13.
These Minutes could also decrease if Amile plays the 5 and Ingram the 4 in a small lineup.
Jeter could see a boost if he is capable of playing the 4&5 slots.

Henderson
04-30-2015, 09:35 AM
These are the guys we know will get the lions share of the minutes at the 1,2,3,4 Positions (160 minutes)
Jefferson, Allen, Jones, Thornton, Ingram


I'm not sure I "know" all that. I'm with you on Thornton and Ingram, but I'd say the rest is TBD.

Troublemaker
04-30-2015, 09:46 AM
Here's the latest "cool spreadsheet." If I missed anyone, please holler.

By the way, I revised some of my numbers after hearing other's comments; I hope this is allowed (if not, I'll go back the my first guesses.)


I would hope so, too! I think Duke is eligible to take an overseas trip this summer, and I'm sure ESPN would love to televise it.

I would call these minutes our Pre-Trip guesses, and I look forward to making Post-Trip guesses. I would expect my guesses to change dramatically post-trip.

Thanks for the making the spreadsheet, Neals!

CDu
04-30-2015, 09:50 AM
I'm not sure I "know" all that. I'm with you on Thornton and Ingram, but I'd say the rest is TBD.

Agreed. I definitely think that Ingram and Thornton will get starter's minutes. I would even feel comfortable saying I know it. But I'm completely agnostic at this point on how the roles of Allen, Jones, and Kennard will play out. I could see any of the three being the primary starter, or all three playing slightly less than starter minutes. It all depends on how good Allen really is, how good Kennard really is, how much Jones improves, and what the rest of the lineup dictates as our big need from the SG position.

In the frontcourt, I tend to believe that Jefferson will get starter's minutes. He's been a 21+ mpg guy the last two years, so it would seem reasonable for him to make the jump to 25+. But what if Ingram can play primarily PF (I don't think that's the likely scenario, but it is possible)? What if Jeter and Obi are better than Jefferson? There is just enough doubt that I won't say I "know" that Jefferson will get surefire starter's minutes.

Henderson
04-30-2015, 09:53 AM
Here's the latest "cool spreadsheet."

And it is a cool spreadsheet. It's all guesswork, and I'm too prognosticationally challenged to participate. But it's fun to see that table and to read the comments that accompany peoples' predictions, which offer other peoples' thinking about various players and how they relate to the team.

lotusland
04-30-2015, 11:11 AM
This is not a perfectly relevant comparison, but Arsalan Kazemi played 3 years at Rice. His sophomore and junior years he was 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, at 30.8% and 29.0%. After his junior year, he did a grad transfer to Oregon - not Duke, certainly, but a major conference team that played in the NCAA tournament. Kazemi played 27 mpg for Oregon and completely sustained his defensive rebounding percentage, staying at 29.0% and finishing 1st in the nation that season. He was also a Pac-12 All-Defensive team player that season.

The list of freshmen who have defensive rebounding percentages of 30% or better in the last 12 years has two names on it - Sean Obi and Kenneth Faried.* If you expand that to freshmen and sophomores, you add Blake Griffin, Kazemi, Devin Williams (WV) and Josh Hawkinson (WSU) (both Williams and Hawkinson did it this year) to the list and that's it. What Obi did last season on the defensive glass is truly elite, and it's a skill that should translate. Whether he does other things well enough to command playing time remains to be seen, but he should be a monster on the defensive glass when he's in the game.

*Michael Beasley had 29.9% as a freshman, too.

Had some extra time last week when we discussed Obi and so I looked at every Rice highlight from 2013-2014 I could find rather than just Obi highlights. I noticed that Rice played a basic 2-1-2 zone exclusively with Obi in the game and he NEVER left the lane on defense. On offense he worked his way back and forth across the lane but never extended out further than 10-12 ft. He set some screens in the high post but never on the perimeter. With that said he is a load that can't easily be moved off the block. IF Duke played him in a similar scheme then yes I think he could rebound comparably but Duke has never played that way under K. Furthermore, if MP3 played in that scheme for the same Rice team, he would have really good rebounding numbers and better scoring, blocks and steals. Just imagine Plumlee's dunking highlights if he is a focal point on offense while being guarded bya 6'8 skinny guy. I expect that Marshall can hit 10-12 footers as well as Obi since he shoots free throws well and his stroke looked good from 3. At Rice he would probably have the greenlight to let those fly.

We haven't heard much about Obi in practice this year so I'm not penciling him in ahead of MP3 or Jeter at this point. If Duke asks Obi to move around a lot more on defense than Rice did then he may struggle. Against most opponents I think I'd rather switch and keep my big guy in the lane but, again, that's not what we typically do and this team in particular seems to be built for some tight man-to-man defense. As an aside I seen a couple of articles recently linked on DBR projecting Jeter as the starting center next year.

Henderson
04-30-2015, 11:21 AM
Had some extra time last week when we discussed Obi and so I looked at every Rice highlight from 2013-2014 I could find rather than just Obi highlights. I noticed that Rice played a basic 2-1-2 zone exclusively with Obi in the game and he NEVER left the lane on defense. On offense he worked his way back and forth across the lane but never extended out further than 10-12 ft. He set some screens in the high post but never on the perimeter. With that said he is a load that can't easily be moved off the block. IF Duke played him in a similar scheme then yes I think he could rebound comparably but Duke has never played that way under K. Furthermore, if MP3 played in that scheme for the same Rice team, he would have really good rebounding numbers and better scoring, blocks and steals. Just imagine Plumlee's dunking highlights if he is a focal point on offense while being guarded bya 6'8 skinny guy. I expect that Marshall can hit 10-12 footers as well as Obi since he shoots free throws well and his stroke looked good from 3. At Rice he would probably have the greenlight to let those fly.

We haven't heard much about Obi in practice this year so I'm not penciling him in ahead of MP3 or Jeter at this point. If Duke asks Obi to move around a lot more on defense than Rice did then he may struggle. Against most opponents I think I'd rather switch and keep my big guy in the lane but, again, that's not what we typically do and this team in particular seems to be built for some tight man-to-man defense. As an aside I seen a couple of articles recently linked on DBR projecting Jeter as the starting center next year.

Great report. Thanks for all that Rice video time.

Obi is the mystery man to me. And even with the information about him at Rice, we haven't heard much about how his game has developed in the past year. Although it's all we've got, I wouldn't be too tied to his Rice freshman season as necessarily indicating where he is now. I know you weren't saying otherwise, and the Rice info is really helpful. But he might surprise; or not. Hence the mystery.

flyingdutchdevil
04-30-2015, 11:54 AM
Starters:
1 - Thornton - 25
2 - M Jones - 27.5
3 - Ingram - 32.5
4 - Jefferson - 27.5
5 - Obi - 22.5

Reserves:
6 - Allen - 25
7 - Jeter - 15
8 - MP3 - 12.5
9 - Kennard - 10

I provided justification on Page 2.

Kedsy
04-30-2015, 12:45 PM
Thornton - 25

I notice a lot of people are plugging in 25 minutes for Derryck Thornton, but I think there's a very low probability that he ends up there. If he's not ready, I think he'd probably be lower than 25. But if he's our starting PG, history would suggest he'd play a lot more than that.

I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but in Coach K's 35 years at Duke, our PG (or starter with the most assists, if the identity of our PG was murky) has averaged 33.0 mpg. In only three of those 35 seasons has our PG played fewer than 29.5 mpg. In only one of those 35 seasons has our PG played fewer than 28 mpg (Greg Paulus in 2008, with 27.7 mpg).

Having said that, I admit to one little cheat in the above stats: in 1994, Jeff Capel averaged 26.4 mpg while playing as more of a combo guard while Grant Hill played "point-forward." Since Grant was our leading assist man that season, his minutes went into my table (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35964-2015-16-Minutes-Discussion&p=805947#post805947). Still, even if you count Capel as the PG that season, (1) he still averaged more than 25 mpg and (2) there's still a lot more history on the side of Derryck playing 30+ mpg rather than 25ish.

flyingdutchdevil
04-30-2015, 02:03 PM
I notice a lot of people are plugging in 25 minutes for Derryck Thornton, but I think there's a very low probability that he ends up there. If he's not ready, I think he'd probably be lower than 25. But if he's our starting PG, history would suggest he'd play a lot more than that.

I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but in Coach K's 35 years at Duke, our PG (or starter with the most assists, if the identity of our PG was murky) has averaged 33.0 mpg. In only three of those 35 seasons has our PG played fewer than 29.5 mpg. In only one of those 35 seasons has our PG played fewer than 28 mpg (Greg Paulus in 2008, with 27.7 mpg).

Having said that, I admit to one little cheat in the above stats: in 1994, Jeff Capel averaged 26.4 mpg while playing as more of a combo guard while Grant Hill played "point-forward." Since Grant was our leading assist man that season, his minutes went into my table (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35964-2015-16-Minutes-Discussion&p=805947#post805947). Still, even if you count Capel as the PG that season, (1) he still averaged more than 25 mpg and (2) there's still a lot more history on the side of Derryck playing 30+ mpg rather than 25ish.

And you are probably right about Thornton. The 25 min is based on a combination of a) he's our only PG who can actually play PG, b) ranked quite high (top 20; 11th best player in class of 2016), and c) youth and readiness, and d) we probably know the least about Thornton of our top 4 recruits (Obi and Vrank not included).

25 seems like a solid weighted average, but I'm sure it will be less than 15 if Thornton needs more time or 30+ if he is ready.

Li_Duke
04-30-2015, 04:35 PM
I notice a lot of people are plugging in 25 minutes for Derryck Thornton, but I think there's a very low probability that he ends up there. If he's not ready, I think he'd probably be lower than 25. But if he's our starting PG, history would suggest he'd play a lot more than that.

I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but in Coach K's 35 years at Duke, our PG (or starter with the most assists, if the identity of our PG was murky) has averaged 33.0 mpg. In only three of those 35 seasons has our PG played fewer than 29.5 mpg. In only one of those 35 seasons has our PG played fewer than 28 mpg (Greg Paulus in 2008, with 27.7 mpg).

Having said that, I admit to one little cheat in the above stats: in 1994, Jeff Capel averaged 26.4 mpg while playing as more of a combo guard while Grant Hill played "point-forward." Since Grant was our leading assist man that season, his minutes went into my table (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35964-2015-16-Minutes-Discussion&p=805947#post805947). Still, even if you count Capel as the PG that season, (1) he still averaged more than 25 mpg and (2) there's still a lot more history on the side of Derryck playing 30+ mpg rather than 25ish.

I'm not sure we have enough historical data points for Derryck Thornton's scenario. How often during the Coach K era have we been in a position to have only one point guard on the roster, and that guy is a freshman? Hurley and Williams come to mind, but I can't think of many scenarios beyond that. In this case, the freshman is one who reclassified to come early. So there is a very good chance that despite his potential, he just won't be ready. But at the same time, we won't have many other options to turn to. I could see this being the tale of two halves to the season: one half where he's not ready and averages much lower than 25 minutes, and a second half where he gets up to speed and plays 30+ minutes.

cato
04-30-2015, 04:42 PM
I'm not sure we have enough historical data points for Derryck Thornton's scenario. How often during the Coach K era have we been in a position to have only one point guard on the roster, and that guy is a freshman? Hurley and Williams come to mind, but I can't think of many scenarios beyond that. In this case, the freshman is one who reclassified to come early. So there is a very good chance that despite his potential, he just won't be ready. But at the same time, we won't have many other options to turn to. I could see this being the tale of two halves to the season: one half where he's not ready and averages much lower than 25 minutes, and a second half where he gets up to speed and plays 30+ minutes.

Wojo's freshman year too? I don't recall any other PGs on that roster. I would go look it up, but it might bring up some of the few memories from that year I have been successful in repressing.

CDu
04-30-2015, 04:48 PM
Wojo's freshman year too? I don't recall any other PGs on that roster. I would go look it up, but it might bring up some of the few memories from that year I have been successful in repressing.

Jeff Capel was still on the team when Wojo was a freshman. Wojo logged 15 starts; Capel 29 (I assume 16 of them would have been at PG). Though I think it is fair to call that season "PG by committee." Wojo certainly wasn't the primary PG; he averaged only 19.3 mpg.

luvdahops
04-30-2015, 04:51 PM
Jeff Capel was still on the team when Wojo was a freshman. Wojo logged 15 starts; Capel 29 (I assume 16 of them would have been at PG). Though I think it is fair to call that season "PG by committee." Wojo certainly wasn't the primary PG; he averaged only 19.3 mpg.

Trajan was also recruited as a combo guard, though I don't think he spent much time there as a frosh (or ever in his career). I remember Capel being the primary PG through most of the conference season, with Trajan moving into the starting lineup at SG.

Kedsy
04-30-2015, 05:12 PM
I'm not sure we have enough historical data points for Derryck Thornton's scenario. How often during the Coach K era have we been in a position to have only one point guard on the roster, and that guy is a freshman? Hurley and Williams come to mind, but I can't think of many scenarios beyond that.

1983 (J Dawkins) 35.8 mpg
1984 (Amaker) 36.3 mpg
1990 (Hurley) 33.4 mpg
1994 (if you count Capel as PG) 26.5 mpg
2000 (J Williams) 34.0 mpg
2006 (Paulus) 32.3 mpg
2011 (Irving, for 11 games) 27.5 mpg, and almost certainly would have been higher if he hadn't gotten injured
2015 (T Jones) 33.8 mpg

So a decent number of data points and a lot of minutes played.

cato
04-30-2015, 05:14 PM
Jeff Capel was still on the team when Wojo was a freshman. Wojo logged 15 starts; Capel 29 (I assume 16 of them would have been at PG). Though I think it is fair to call that season "PG by committee." Wojo certainly wasn't the primary PG; he averaged only 19.3 mpg.

I never thought of Jeff Capel as a PG -- which was one of the problems, since Wojo couldn't quite cut it his freshman year.

CDu
04-30-2015, 05:31 PM
I never thought of Jeff Capel as a PG -- which was one of the problems, since Wojo couldn't quite cut it his freshman year.

Right. Capel (and Collins, Blakeney, and Langdon) weren't really PG. Capel filled the role by default, which is part of the reason (along with no Coach K) that we stunk that year.

-jk
04-30-2015, 08:33 PM
I never thought of Jeff Capel as a PG -- which was one of the problems, since Wojo couldn't quite cut it his freshman year.

Would have loved to see Wojo with K all year...

-jk

79-77
05-02-2015, 09:23 AM
First, let me say that there is a lot of high-quality analysis in this thread. The charts of historical top-3 MPG and PG MPG, and the data on portability of rebounding stats, come to mind in particular. Well done gents.

Here are my MPG guesses:

Starters:

Thornton -- 31
Jones -- 28
Ingram -- 33
Jefferson -- 28
Obi -- 16

Bench:

Allen -- 25
Kennard -- 12
Plumlee -- 15
Jeter -- 12

Clearly there are a lot of moving pieces and our information is incomplete. As many others have noted, the Obi-MP3-Jeter minutes could shake out in many different ways. There is certainly room for any of those 3, or Allen or Kennard for that matter, to muscle his way into a bigger role.

I think it's unlikely that K will start 3 freshmen -- last year was an outlier driven primarily by how terrific Okafor, Winslow and T Jones were. This year's freshman class looks great, but it's probably not realistic to assume that they will achieve as much right away -- both internally (ie earning starting roles) and externally (winning every big game down the stretch, including on Monday night) -- as last year's class.

I also think K trusts Jefferson and Matt Jones and wants them playing big roles, even if guys like Jeter, Allen and Kennard have higher ceilings.

Having said that, I think the historical top-3 and PG MPG data are pretty hard to argue with -- and it's hard to see Thornton or Ingram not being 2 of those 3.

Coach K will know what to do.

Neals384
05-02-2015, 10:34 AM
Starters:
1 - Thornton - 25
2 - M Jones - 27.5
3 - Ingram - 32.5
4 - Jefferson - 27.5
5 - Obi - 22.5

Reserves:
6 - Allen - 25
7 - Jeter - 15
8 - MP3 - 12.5
9 - Kennard - 10

I provided justification on Page 2.

That totals 197.5, dutch.

sagegrouse
05-02-2015, 10:52 AM
First, let me say that there is a lot of high-quality analysis in this thread. The charts of historical top-3 MPG and PG MPG, and the data on portability of rebounding stats, come to mind in particular. Well done gents.

Here are my MPG guesses:

Starters:

Thornton -- 31
Jones -- 28
Ingram -- 33
Jefferson -- 28
Obi -- 16

Bench:

Allen -- 25
Kennard -- 12
Plumlee -- 15
Jeter -- 12

.

Interesting, Seventy-Nine. What would you say about these issues: (a) the only scorer among the starters is Ingram, a freshman; (b) this can be seen as starting four forwards, inasmuch as Matt Jones started in lieu of Amile last year and typically guarded a forward on the other team; (c) it ignores the inevitable stardom of Grayson Allen, about which much has been written in this thread.

79-77
05-02-2015, 01:01 PM
Interesting, Seventy-Nine. What would you say about these issues: (a) the only scorer among the starters is Ingram, a freshman; (b) this can be seen as starting four forwards, inasmuch as Matt Jones started in lieu of Amile last year and typically guarded a forward on the other team; (c) it ignores the inevitable stardom of Grayson Allen, about which much has been written in this thread.


(a) and (c) -- (a) is certainly a valid concern. In responding, I think we have to consider the alternatives that might bring more scoring into the starting lineup. Plumlee appears to be a terrific young man but doesn't fill the scoring need. Jeter or Kennard might, but notwithstanding the 2014-15 magic freshman ride I am leery of relying too much on freshmen -- and I'm already relying on 2 of them in Thornton and Ingram.

So that leaves (c) and the case of Mr. Allen, who certainly looked explosive last year and can clearly fill it up in a variety of ways (and to whom we're all eternally indebted for that 2nd-half burst vs Wisconsin). I can see him seizing a starting and 30+ MPG role this year. I'm just reluctant to assume too much about a guy who averaged 1.3 made baskets and 9.2 minutes per game this past year. We've seen sophomore slumps from talented freshman wings before.

I also think that if Thornton's strength, as we've heard, is distribution/penetrate-and-dish, then perhaps the need for guys who can create their own offense in the starting lineup is reduced.

(b) -- Jones strikes me as the kind of Duke player that plays a tough, complete, all-around game and steadily grows into a bigger role during the course of his career. You are right that he could be considered a forward, but I think K probably views him as a general "wing" more than just a 3, and that he can handle most opposing 2s on D. While he did guard opposing forwards last year, I think that was primarily because T. Jones and Cook were cemented into 35+ MPG roles (due to awesomeness).

Offensively, his 3-point shooting, which was touted during his recruitment but disappeared during his freshman year, returned last year and IMHO he usually shot it pretty confidently. He was a 37.6% 3-PT shooter and a 71.4% FT shooter last year and I think those numbers will continue to improve.

Overall, I think we'll see Coach K, as always, give minutes and starting slots to the guys that have earned them, with less emphasis on traditional 1-through-5 roles. I think Jones and Jefferson will earn those roles through hard work, seniority, defense, leadership, toughness and a reasonable amount of offensive contribution. I also think Thornton and Ingram will earn those roles through hard work and talent. I think the 5th starting slot will go to Obi, but that's just a guess -- it could easily go to Allen (or one of the other guys for that matter) -- and in any event I think Allen will play more minutes than Obi.

How's that for a longwinded answer?

ACCBBallFan
05-04-2015, 09:26 AM
It seems to me that many people on this board are underestimating Obi. As Kedsy has pointed out a few times, he was third in the nation in defensive rebounding as a freshman in a conference where he faced some strong competition. Look at his game log. He had 10 and 12 in 23 minutes against Texas (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/66760/year/2014/sean-obi). I think he starts, and at the very least plays 20 minutes a game. His main challenge will be avoiding foul trouble.

Agreed. Here are his full year 2013-14 metrics

Player GP MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%

Sean Obi 30 26.4 11.4 9.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.0 .591 .544 .000

It's more compicated than htis simplistic view with so many multiple posiiton guys

30 Thornton 10 Allen 40
25 Jones 15 Allen 40
25 Ingram 15 Kennard 40
25 Jefferson 15 Jeter 40
25 Obi 15 Plumlee 40
130 starters 55 subs 200

gus
05-04-2015, 09:37 AM
Right. Capel (and Collins, Blakeney, and Langdon) weren't really PG. Capel filled the role by default, which is part of the reason (along with no Coach K) that we stunk that year.

Didn't Collins also handle the ball quite a bit that season? Regardless, if we're looking at these seasons to figure out what K's allocation of minutes is likely to be, I'd think the '95 season should be excluded.

luvdahops
05-04-2015, 10:27 AM
Didn't Collins also handle the ball quite a bit that season? Regardless, if we're looking at these seasons to figure out what K's allocation of minutes is likely to be, I'd think the '95 season should be excluded.

Collins was actually the de facto PG in '96, and played very well (16.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), but he played exclusively off the ball in an injury-marred '95. IIRC, he had a nasty ankle injury in December 1994 and never really found his groove after that.

CDu
05-04-2015, 12:19 PM
I will add this: I think we maybe moving more toward an era in which past history is less predictive of future outcomes. Prior to last year, there was discussion about how Duke centers don't average over 25mpg as freshmen. Well, we just witnessed a Duke freshman center average 30mpg. Prior to last year, zone was a dirty word. Well, we just witnessed a Duke team play zone substantially throughout the second half of the season.

Some things will probably still hold true: we'll probably still see the rotation get tighter as the season progresses; Coach K will tend to err on the smaller/more skilled side than the bigger/more "traditional" size side. But in terms of predicting what the lineup will look like, I do wonder if this past year might start to signal a shift in philosophy about a lot of things.

With regard to Kennard, he looked VERY skilled in the Nike Hoops Summit. That has tended to be a good predictor of quality among recruits. As such, I'd be quite surprised if he isn't a key member of the main rotation next year. He appears to have the highest skill level of our 3 primary SG options. He doesn't have the athleticism of Allen, but seems to have a more diverse skill set; he doesn't have the defensive skill of Jones, but has much more balanced offensive game. I suspect that the guys whose minutes will suffer will be the frontcourt guys, as Ingram plays ~10 mpg more than anticipated at PF to accommodate the more skilled guard/wing players getting on the floor.

luvdahops
05-04-2015, 12:46 PM
I will add this: I think we maybe moving more toward an era in which past history is less predictive of future outcomes. Prior to last year, there was discussion about how Duke centers don't average over 25mpg as freshmen. Well, we just witnessed a Duke freshman center average 30mpg. Prior to last year, zone was a dirty word. Well, we just witnessed a Duke team play zone substantially throughout the second half of the season.

Some things will probably still hold true: we'll probably still see the rotation get tighter as the season progresses; Coach K will tend to err on the smaller/more skilled side than the bigger/more "traditional" size side. But in terms of predicting what the lineup will look like, I do wonder if this past year might start to signal a shift in philosophy about a lot of things.

With regard to Kennard, he looked VERY skilled in the Nike Hoops Summit. That has tended to be a good predictor of quality among recruits. As such, I'd be quite surprised if he isn't a key member of the main rotation next year. He appears to have the highest skill level of our 3 primary SG options. He doesn't have the athleticism of Allen, but seems to have a more diverse skill set; he doesn't have the defensive skill of Jones, but has much more balanced offensive game. I suspect that the guys whose minutes will suffer will be the frontcourt guys, as Ingram plays ~10 mpg more than anticipated at PF to accommodate the more skilled guard/wing players getting on the floor.

I agree with all of this. I think all 5 perimeter guys will play meaningful minutes in varying combinations, including some small ball with Ingram at the 4. Which means one from among Obi, Marshall and Jeter will likely get squeezed out of the regular rotation (I think Amile is a lock, and also a decent bet to have a solid uptick in production as a senior). FWIW, I am among the minority who believes Obi is close to a lock as well. So that leaves Marshall, a known entity with a fairly low ceiling, and Jeter, who is something of a mystery at this point. I did not see the Nike Hoop Summit, but recaps and the box score suggest that Jeter struggled a bit.

Kedsy
05-04-2015, 01:01 PM
I will add this: I think we maybe moving more toward an era in which past history is less predictive of future outcomes. Prior to last year, there was discussion about how Duke centers don't average over 25mpg as freshmen. Well, we just witnessed a Duke freshman center average 30mpg. Prior to last year, zone was a dirty word. Well, we just witnessed a Duke team play zone substantially throughout the second half of the season.

Some things will probably still hold true: we'll probably still see the rotation get tighter as the season progresses; Coach K will tend to err on the smaller/more skilled side than the bigger/more "traditional" size side. But in terms of predicting what the lineup will look like, I do wonder if this past year might start to signal a shift in philosophy about a lot of things.

I have privately been wondering the same thing. After seeing us play zone and watching the 8th man play big minutes in the NCAA title game, almost anything can happen, right? Maybe even a 9-man rotation?

As I said in an earlier post, the easy answer is that Kennard plays a lot and two of the bigs get squeezed. But you can make very convincing arguments for each of the four bigs getting decent minutes too.

Amile has played 20+ mpg the past two seasons; it's almost inconceivable that his role would significantly diminish as a senior captain. Similarly, I personally find it difficult to envision 5th year senior captain Marshall playing only token minutes. Sean Obi projects as an elite defensive rebounder, and Chase Jeter is a top 15 (maybe top 10) recruit.

As someone said earlier in the thread, something's gotta give.

ACCBBallFan
05-04-2015, 01:11 PM
I...
With regard to Kennard, he looked VERY skilled in the Nike Hoops Summit. That has tended to be a good predictor of quality among recruits. As such, I'd be quite surprised if he isn't a key member of the main rotation next year. He appears to have the highest skill level of our 3 primary SG options. He doesn't have the athleticism of Allen, but seems to have a more diverse skill set; he doesn't have the defensive skill of Jones, but has much more balanced offensive game. I suspect that the guys whose minutes will suffer will be the frontcourt guys, as Ingram plays ~10 mpg more than anticipated at PF to accommodate the more skilled guard/wing players getting on the floor.

I think you are right as that's the only way to make the total minutes per players work out right, but then Jeter is odd man out due to numbers

25-30 Thornton 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Jones 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Allen 10-15 Ingram

10-15 Ingram 20 Jefferson 5-10 Jeter

20 Sean Obi 15 Plumlee 05 Jeter/Jefferson

One way or another 105-110 minutes get spread among Thornton, Jones, Allen and Kennard as Ingram logs 10-15 MPG at WF when opponents are too big for small ball, to sub-total 120, and another 10-15 MPG at PF for Ingram, perhpas 20 for Kennard and 30 instead of 25 for Jones/Allen.

Jeter may be able to squeeze 5 more minutes out of Jefferson if his offense remains so limited, but based on his Rice metrics plus growth Sean Obi should log at least 20 and MP3 a relaible 15 before he fouls out. leaving only 5 MPG for Chase at center spot, plus another 5-10 MPG at PF.

Chase Jeter will be a very solid player for Duke in years to come but has to wait for MP3/Amile to graduate to log more minutes, as their collective experience is so vital on another relatively young team.

Kennard and Ingram have a pair of 10-15's at different positions but my bet is Ingram is 25 and Kennard 15 rather than 20 each since Brandon has less guys who can play his position as a mis-match.

CDu
05-04-2015, 01:23 PM
I think you are right as that's the only way to make the total minutes per players work out right, but then Jeter is odd man out due to numbers

25-30 Thornton 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Jones 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Allen 10-15 Ingram

10-15 Ingram 20 Jefferson 5-10 Jeter

20 Sean Obi 15 Plumlee 05 Jeter/Jefferson

One way or another 105-110 minutes get spread among Thornton, Jones, Allen and Kennard as Ingram logs 10-15 MPG at WF when opponents are too big for small ball, to sub-total 120, and another 10-15 MPG at PF for Ingram, perhpas 20 for Kennard and 30 instead of 25 for Jones/Allen.

Jeter may be able to squeeze 5 more minutes out of Jefferson if his offense remains so limited, but based on his Rice metrics plus growth Sean Obi should log at least 20 and MP3 a relaible 15 before he fouls out. leaving only 5 MPG for Chase at center spot, plus another 5-10 MPG at PF.

Chase Jeter will be a very solid player for Duke in years to come but has to wait for MP3/Amile to graduate to log more minutes, as their collective experience is so vital on another relatively young team.

Kennard and Ingram have a pair of 10-15's at different positions but my bet is Ingram is 25 and Kennard 15 rather than 20 each since Brandon has less guys who can play his position as a mis-match.

I would tend to look at it this way:

PG: Thornton 30 mpg, Kennard 10 mpg
SG: Jones/Allen 25-30 mpg, Kennard 10-15 mpg,
SF: Ingram 15-20 mpg, Allen/Jones 20-25 mpg
PF: Jefferson 25-30 mpg, Ingram 10-15 mpg
C: Plumlee 10 mpg, Obi/Jeter 30 mpg

That's 30 mpg for Thornton, 20-25 mpg for Kennard, anywhere from 45-55 mpg for Jones and Allen, 25-35 mpg for Ingram, 25-30 mpg for Jefferson, 10 mpg for Plumlee, and 30 mpg for Obi/Jeter.

How the minutes for Jones/Allen break down and how the minutes for Obi/Jeter break down remains to be seen. But that's roughly the way I see it.

Maybe Thornton steals a few more minutes and bumps either Kennard down a few or one of Jones/Allen down a few. Maybe one of the bigs gets a few more minutes than I expect. But I don't see the quartet of Jefferson, Plumlee, Obi, and Jeter averaging more than 70-75 mpg combined, if even that much. Which leaves at least 125-130 mpg for the 5 guard/wing players. That's 25-26 mpg per player. They won't break down evenly, but I would expect all five to average over 15 mpg next year.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 01:32 PM
I think you all are underselling Marshall. Almost every time Jah went out with foul trouble and Marshall came in - it was uncanny - the team went on a nice run. I'm expecting Marshall to get 20+ starters minutes and have a Zoubek like season. The minutes will have to come from Obi and Jeter. If those two guys are more ready than I expect them to be vs Marshall, I will be happily surprised.

Ichabod Drain
05-04-2015, 02:37 PM
I think you all are underselling Marshall. Almost every time Jah went out with foul trouble and Marshall came in - it was uncanny - the team went on a nice run. I'm expecting Marshall to get 20+ starters minutes and have a Zoubek like season. The minutes will have to come from Obi and Jeter. If those two guys are more ready than I expect them to be vs Marshall, I will be happily surprised.

One thing to consider with Marshall is his foul rate. He had the highest on the team last year with 6.3 per 40 minutes. It's going to be hard to stay on the floor if that doesn't come down a decent bit next year.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 03:24 PM
One thing to consider with Marshall is his foul rate. He had the highest on the team last year with 6.3 per 40 minutes. It's going to be hard to stay on the floor if that doesn't come down a decent bit next year.

Good point. But I expect his foul rate to come down as he gets more time on the floor. He'll learn to more effectively channel all that energy into productive minutes.

It would be an interesting comparison to look at Marshall and Zoubek's junior years in terms of per minute scoring, rebounding and fouling. My memory isn't super sharp, but I think I'm at least as bullish on Marshall going into his senior year as I was with Zoubek.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 03:36 PM
Good point. But I expect his foul rate to come down as he gets more time on the floor. He'll learn to more effectively channel all that energy into productive minutes.

It would be an interesting comparison to look at Marshall and Zoubek's junior years in terms of per minute scoring, rebounding and fouling. My memory isn't super sharp, but I think I'm at least as bullish on Marshall going into his senior year as I was with Zoubek.

OK, decided to go do the quick research. Looking at their junior years, per 40 minutes:

Zoubek: 13.6 pts, 12.4 rebounds, 6.6 fouls
Marshall: 9.3 pts, 9.8 rebounds, 6.2 fouls

Zoubek figured out how to reign in the fouls and stay on the court his senior year. I expect Marshall can too. This does seem to indicate that Zoubek was a more productive scorer and rebounder - not surprised by the scoring (Zoubek always had a softer touch around the rim), but I am a bit surprised by the rebounding differential.

Li_Duke
05-04-2015, 03:42 PM
OK, decided to go do the quick research. Looking at their junior years, per 40 minutes:

Zoubek: 13.6 pts, 12.4 rebounds, 6.6 fouls
Marshall: 9.3 pts, 9.8 rebounds, 6.2 fouls

Zoubek figured out how to reign in the fouls and stay on the court his senior year. I expect Marshall can too. This does seem to indicate that Zoubek was a more productive scorer and rebounder - not surprised by the scoring (Zoubek always had a softer touch around the rim), but I am a bit surprised by the rebounding differential.

I'm not surprised about the rebounding differential. Marshall tended to jump out on the ball handler in the pick and roll while Zoubek always stayed closer to the rim, so Zoubek would have gotten better opportunities to secure the rebound.

CDu
05-04-2015, 03:44 PM
Good point. But I expect his foul rate to come down as he gets more time on the floor. He'll learn to more effectively channel all that energy into productive minutes.

It would be an interesting comparison to look at Marshall and Zoubek's junior years in terms of per minute scoring, rebounding and fouling. My memory isn't super sharp, but I think I'm at least as bullish on Marshall going into his senior year as I was with Zoubek.

Plumlee averaged 2.2 ppg and 2.4 rpg in 9.6 mpg. Roughly 9 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes.

Zoubek averaged about 14 points and 12.5 rebounds per 40 minutes as a junior.

I was certainly down on Zoubek's chances of being a big-time player as a senior. I am more down on Plumlee's chances, as he has shown less proclivity to rebound and much less proclivity to score. And note that Zoubek's biggest jump was as a rebounder, and that jump was pretty unbelievable.

Keep in mind also that Zoubek was a much more highly-regarded prospect that had dealt with a bunch of injuries. There just aren't the indicators that Plumlee will make a similarly huge jump.

Ichabod Drain
05-04-2015, 03:45 PM
OK, decided to go do the quick research. Looking at their junior years, per 40 minutes:

Zoubek: 13.6 pts, 12.4 rebounds, 6.6 fouls
Marshall: 9.3 pts, 9.8 rebounds, 6.2 fouls

Zoubek figured out how to reign in the fouls and stay on the court his senior year. I expect Marshall can too. This does seem to indicate that Zoubek was a more productive scorer and rebounder - not surprised by the scoring (Zoubek always had a softer touch around the rim), but I am a bit surprised by the rebounding differential.

Interestingly enough, looking at Kenpom, Zoubek's fouls per 40 went up to 7.4 his senior year. He averaged 18.7 minutes his senior season. It's hard to evaluate him that year though because it's almost like two different seasons in the first and second half of the year.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 03:57 PM
Interestingly enough, looking at Kenpom, Zoubek's fouls per 40 went up to 7.4 his senior year. He averaged 18.7 minutes his senior season. It's hard to evaluate him that year though because it's almost like two different seasons in the first and second half of the year.

Good point. I forgot how strong Zoubek came on in the back half of the year. Foot problems throughout his career, right?

I believe Marshall can be a very good starting center for us next year at 25 min per game. He'll be a better defender and potentially better rebounder than freshman Okafor. He sets strong screens. And when Thornton drives and dishes high and soft when the opposing big man collapses, Marshall has shown he knows what to do.

Was it discussed on the board how often we'd go on runs when Jah went to the bench this year? I think some of that had to do with our offense changing and the defense not reacting - kind of like pitching a knuckleballer the day after your hardest thrower - but I also think Marshall deserves a lot of the credit for his defense and overall energy.

Maybe Jeter and Obi are more ready than I think, but I expect with steady minutes, Marshall can have a great senior year. Pulling for the big guy!

CDu
05-04-2015, 03:59 PM
Interestingly enough, looking at Kenpom, Zoubek's fouls per 40 went up to 7.4 his senior year. He averaged 18.7 minutes his senior season. It's hard to evaluate him that year though because it's almost like two different seasons in the first and second half of the year.

Zoubek's senior season is quite the oddity. His points per minute and rebounds per minute didn't change much from first half of his senior year to second half. It was just his foul rate. He was an absolute fouling machine early in his senior year, averaging more than 8.75 fouls per 40 minutes! From the Maryland game through the end of the season, he averaged just 6 fouls per 40 minutes. He was remarkably consistent in rebounding, averaging 16.2 rebounds per 40 minutes leading up to the Maryland game, and 16.86 rebounds per 40 minutes from then on. His scoring rate actually went down after his emergence (12.8 per 40 before; 11.1 after).

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 04:19 PM
Zoubek's senior season is quite the oddity. His points per minute and rebounds per minute didn't change much from first half of his senior year to second half. It was just his foul rate. He was an absolute fouling machine early in his senior year, averaging more than 8.75 fouls per 40 minutes! From the Maryland game through the end of the season, he averaged just 6 fouls per 40 minutes. He was remarkably consistent in rebounding, averaging 16.2 rebounds per 40 minutes leading up to the Maryland game, and 16.86 rebounds per 40 minutes from then on. His scoring rate actually went down after his emergence (12.8 per 40 before; 11.1 after).

So he was able to stay on the court more in the second half of the season?

Hopefully Marshall is taking Zoubek out for a pastry and picking his brain on how to make that leap to a productive senior starter.

My main memory of Zoubek is how hard he'd work to get rebounding position and how he'd seek out the open 3-point shooter on the perimeter as soon as he got the offensive board. There's no easier three point shot than when the pass is coming to you from right under the goal. Already squared up!

Kedsy
05-04-2015, 04:27 PM
...but I am a bit surprised by the rebounding differential.

You shouldn't be. Brian Zoubek was an elite offensive rebounder and a solid defensive rebounder his entire career. Marshall Plumlee has been a strong offensive rebounder (but not as strong as Zoubek) and a poor-to-adequate defensive rebounder (for a big man).

Marshall is big, but he wasn't nearly the rebounder that Brian Zoubek was. Nor, frankly was he as good a rebounder as Jahlil Okafor this past season, based on minute-independent, pace-independent metrics. I agree that Marshall had a fine season (in limited minutes) in 2014-15 and played pretty good defense, but your expectations appear to be unrealistic.

SkyBrickey
05-04-2015, 05:13 PM
You shouldn't be. Brian Zoubek was an elite offensive rebounder and a solid defensive rebounder his entire career. Marshall Plumlee has been a strong offensive rebounder (but not as strong as Zoubek) and a poor-to-adequate defensive rebounder (for a big man).

Marshall is big, but he wasn't nearly the rebounder that Brian Zoubek was. Nor, frankly was he as good a rebounder as Jahlil Okafor this past season, based on minute-independent, pace-independent metrics. I agree that Marshall had a fine season (in limited minutes) in 2014-15 and played pretty good defense, but your expectations appear to be unrealistic.

Interesting isn't it that Zoubek had the slight height and reach advantage on Marshall but Marshall is more athletic with a much higher vertical. So much of rebounding is positioning and desire which Zoubek had in spades his senior year. Let's hope Marshall claims some of that getting ready for a big senior season. Maybe I'll be surprised by Obi, but I'm not counting on those Rice scoring and rebounding numbers to translate at Duke enough to move him ahead of Marshall in the starting lineup. But I'm guessing....

sagegrouse
05-04-2015, 05:16 PM
One thing to consider with Marshall is his foul rate. He had the highest on the team last year with 6.3 per 40 minutes. It's going to be hard to stay on the floor if that doesn't come down a decent bit next year.


Good point. But I expect his foul rate to come down as he gets more time on the floor. He'll learn to more effectively channel all that energy into productive minutes.

It would be an interesting comparison to look at Marshall and Zoubek's junior years in terms of per minute scoring, rebounding and fouling. My memory isn't super sharp, but I think I'm at least as bullish on Marshall going into his senior year as I was with Zoubek.

It may be my imagination, but didn't the Field Marshall get a foul in his first 30 seconds every single game? If true, then more minutes would reduce his rate of fouling.

mr. synellinden
05-04-2015, 05:21 PM
After someone her posted a link to it, I recently re-watched Coach K's post-season press conference from last year, which was a week or two after the Mercer loss. One of the things that he said is that his biggest regret of the last 5 year period was not redshirting Ryan Kelly in the 2009-2010 season - he said he was not physically ready and it was a crowded frontcourt. Kelly then would have been part of the 2014 team (imagine him anchoring the defense and as a stretch 4/5 as part of a starting lineup with Cook, Hood, Parker and Jefferson). The 2010 and 2016 teams have similar frontcourt talent and experience (with Zoubek - Marshall; Thomas - Jefferson; Obi - Miles; Mason - Ingram; Kelly - Jeter; plus Vrankovic). So I'm wondering if he might consider a redshirt for Jeter this season if he is going to be 5th on the frontcourt depth chart. I expect we'll see Jones playing a lot of wing forward this season as he did last year, and between him, Allen and Ingram, I don't see Jeter being able to play any minutes at the 3. I am convinced Obi will start and Plumlee will almost split time with him at the 5, with Jefferson and Ingram sharing the 4. That leaves Jeter with few available minutes, and why waste a season if he needs time to gain strength and adjust to the college game (as Kelly did - I think they will end up with similar RSCI rankings - Kelly was 14; Jeter is 11 in ESPN's top 100)? If Vrankovic can play the 5 in an absolute emergency, it might make the decision easier.

subzero02
05-04-2015, 05:23 PM
OK, decided to go do the quick research. Looking at their junior years, per 40 minutes:

Zoubek: 13.6 pts, 12.4 rebounds, 6.6 fouls
Marshall: 9.3 pts, 9.8 rebounds, 6.2 fouls

Zoubek figured out how to reign in the fouls and stay on the court his senior year. I expect Marshall can too. This does seem to indicate that Zoubek was a more productive scorer and rebounder - not surprised by the scoring (Zoubek always had a softer touch around the rim), but I am a bit surprised by the rebounding differential.

Zoubek also had softer hands than Marshall. Plumlee loses many scoring and rebound opportunities because he can't handle the ball cleanly on a consistent basis.

Skitzle
05-04-2015, 06:29 PM
After someone her posted a link to it, I recently re-watched Coach K's post-season press conference from last year, which was a week or two after the Mercer loss. One of the things that he said is that his biggest regret of the last 5 year period was not redshirting Ryan Kelly in the 2009-2010 season - he said he was not physically ready and it was a crowded frontcourt. Kelly then would have been part of the 2014 team (imagine him anchoring the defense and as a stretch 4/5 as part of a starting lineup with Cook, Hood, Parker and Jefferson). The 2010 and 2016 teams have similar frontcourt talent and experience (with Zoubek - Marshall; Thomas - Jefferson; Obi - Miles; Mason - Ingram; Kelly - Jeter; plus Vrankovic). So I'm wondering if he might consider a redshirt for Jeter this season if he is going to be 5th on the frontcourt depth chart. I expect we'll see Jones playing a lot of wing forward this season as he did last year, and between him, Allen and Ingram, I don't see Jeter being able to play any minutes at the 3. I am convinced Obi will start and Plumlee will almost split time with him at the 5, with Jefferson and Ingram sharing the 4. That leaves Jeter with few available minutes, and why waste a season if he needs time to gain strength and adjust to the college game (as Kelly did - I think they will end up with similar RSCI rankings - Kelly was 14; Jeter is 11 in ESPN's top 100)? If Vrankovic can play the 5 in an absolute emergency, it might make the decision easier.

Jeter is considered to have one-and-done potential. He's not red-shirting.

Duvall
05-04-2015, 06:44 PM
Jeter is considered to have one-and-done potential.

By whom?

mr. synellinden
05-04-2015, 06:46 PM
By whom?

You beat me to it. He may be the best NBA prospect among Jefferson, Obi, and Marshall but will he contribute to the team more than those three guys?

Is he more ready to contribute than Ryan Kelly was as a freshman? I don't know the answer, I just am curious and I'm sure there are others who have seen him play who can weigh in.

ACCBBallFan
05-05-2015, 01:21 PM
I would tend to look at it this way:

PG: Thornton 30 mpg, Kennard 10 mpg
SG: Jones/Allen 25-30 mpg, Kennard 10-15 mpg,
SF: Ingram 15-20 mpg, Allen/Jones 20-25 mpg
PF: Jefferson 25-30 mpg, Ingram 10-15 mpg
C: Plumlee 10 mpg, Obi/Jeter 30 mpg

That's 30 mpg for Thornton, 20-25 mpg for Kennard, anywhere from 45-55 mpg for Jones and Allen, 25-35 mpg for Ingram, 25-30 mpg for Jefferson, 10 mpg for Plumlee, and 30 mpg for Obi/Jeter.

How the minutes for Jones/Allen break down and how the minutes for Obi/Jeter break down remains to be seen. But that's roughly the way I see it.

Maybe Thornton steals a few more minutes and bumps either Kennard down a few or one of Jones/Allen down a few. Maybe one of the bigs gets a few more minutes than I expect. But I don't see the quartet of Jefferson, Plumlee, Obi, and Jeter averaging more than 70-75 mpg combined, if even that much. Which leaves at least 125-130 mpg for the 5 guard/wing players. That's 25-26 mpg per player. They won't break down evenly, but I would expect all five to average over 15 mpg next year.

I am OK with all of this except Amile 25-30 is too high unless he develops a mid range jump shot. His 21.3 MPG last year is about right, perhaps a couple more. So I would bump the Obi/Jeter total to 35 MPG and 15 for MP3.

I ttied to counterbalance the tendency to put halos on all new recruits and to see every wart on the Devisl we know, along with recognizing that this year;s class is relatively weak.

25-30 Thornton 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Jones 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Allen 10-15 Ingram

10-15 Ingram 20 Jefferson 05-10 Jeter

20 Sean Obi 15 Plumlee 05 Jeter/Jefferson

Of the two I think Ingram logs more minutes than Kennard since he has less guys who can play his position as is case for Thornton. So even though they are both listed twice at 10-15 MPG in two positions I see Ingram at 25-30 and Kennard at 20-25, same as you..

Saratoga2
05-05-2015, 02:03 PM
I am OK with all of this except Amile 25-30 is too high unless he develops a mid range jump shot. His 21.3 MPG last year is about right, perhaps a couple more. So I would bump the Obi/Jeter total to 35 MPG and 15 for MP3.

I ttied to counterbalance the tendency to put halos on all new recruits and to see every wart on the Devisl we know, along with recognizing that this year;s class is relatively weak.

25-30 Thornton 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Jones 10-15 Kennard

25-30 Allen 10-15 Ingram

10-15 Ingram 20 Jefferson 05-10 Jeter

20 Sean Obi 15 Plumlee 05 Jeter/Jefferson

Of the two I think Ingram logs more minutes than Kennard since he has less guys who can play his position as is case for Thornton. So even though they are both listed twice at 10-15 MPG in two positions I see Ingram at 25-30 and Kennard at 20-25, same as you..

I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.

CDu
05-05-2015, 03:19 PM
I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.

I think that, when Thornton is not in the game, the concept of PG will kind of go out the window. I suspect that we'll work the ball fluidly through our 3 guards/wings (likely Allen/Kennard/Ingram) rather than having a true PG.

subzero02
05-05-2015, 03:35 PM
I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.

From an admittedly limited sample size, I think Kennard's point guard skills are superior to Allen's with the exception of driving the ball to the hole in isolation. Kennard appears to have a better outside shot, midrange game, handle, court vision, and passing skills.

Dev11
05-05-2015, 05:18 PM
It may be my imagination, but didn't the Field Marshall get a foul in his first 30 seconds every single game? If true, then more minutes would reduce his rate of fouling.

It might be a throwaway point, but Marshall's tendency to sub into games with way too much energy may be a reason for K to start him, while still limiting him to under 20 minutes. If he turns into end-of-season Zoubek, it would be an enormous boost, but I don't expect it.

There was another discussion up-thread that speculated that Thornton might not be ready to play big minutes. If that was the case, I don't think Ingram would have cited Thornton as a factor in his decision. Thornton may only play 25 because Allen/Kennard show enough ball handling, but he is probably getting 30+. As much as we like to say that K doesn't do positions, he does like to establish a primary point guard, and I expect that to be Thornton.

It's a long offseason.

ACCBBallFan
05-05-2015, 05:54 PM
I think your estimates are reasonable, however I do question whether the backup PG is only Kennard. I think Grayson also has the liklihood of getting some opportunities there.


I think that, when Thornton is not in the game, the concept of PG will kind of go out the window. I suspect that we'll work the ball fluidly through our 3 guards/wings (likely Allen/Kennard/Ingram) rather than having a true PG.

I agreed. I showed it as a nominal Kennard but it might just as well be Allen or Jones, in fact more likely both kind of like when Scheyer was the nominal PG

It just gets too complicated to show 3 or 4 potential PG's, 5 SG's etc.

Allen, Jones and Kennard in particular are all interchangeable, so I just showed the one who appears to have the best non-PG PG skills, but Thornton will play as many minutes as a lack of foul trouble will enable.

duke09hms
05-06-2015, 04:42 AM
Found this clip of Sean Obi's 2013-2014 Rice highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8FOe9GSwFY
Important takeaway is that when he steps out onto the court for us, he will have two years of improvement from that highlight reel. Practicing against Jahlil for a year must count for something.

PG: Derryck 30m, Luke/Matt/Grayson 10m
Wings: Brandon 25m, Grayson 25m, Matt 25m, Luke 5m
Posts: Brandon 5m, Amile 25m, Sean 20m, Marshall 20m, Chase 10m

Derryck and Brandon are locks to get ~30mpg if not more.
The only tossups are how Luke/Matt/Grayson will split up the ~65 mins available to them at wing and how Amile/Marsh/Sean/Chase will split up the ~75 mins available to them in the post.
I think returnees Matt and Grayson will get at least 25 mpg for their proven defense. I'm not as sold on Luke as some are here; I think he'll have to adjust to the faster speed of the college game.

Amile will hold on to his 25mpg from this year as his savvy defense and experience will be much needed, and for God sakes man, please work on your J this summer. Should be noted he missed 6 weeks last summer for a hip injury.
Sean will get at least 20 mpg, especially after hearing people say defensive rebounding skill translates the most. I would also give the nod to Marshall taking minutes over Chase simply due to college experience. Marshall will be in his 5th year at Duke, and Chase may take some time to adjust to college ball.

If K decides to go with the smaller lineup, the "loser" out of Matt/Gray/Luke will take minutes at the expense of Marshall and Chase.

Funniest comment on one of Brandon's youtube highlights: "Your contribution of $5 a month will help feed this child."

Neals384
05-06-2015, 07:29 PM
OK, last update of the minutes forecast spreadsheet for now...I'll be off the forum for a while. If Duke has an overseas trip, I'll check in again and "close the entries" before that trip. Did you all know there are bragging rights and sporks for the most accurate forecast?




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Antonio
Walk-ons
Total


gumbomoop
22
25
16
30
25
22
18
25
18
0
0
201


neals384
25
30
13
25
25
15
17
30
20
0
0
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
30
25
10
20
30
20
0
0
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
0
200


CDu
28
28
16
28
22
24
12
22
20
0
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
0
200


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
0
200


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
2
2
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
0
2
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
0
200


mr. synellinden
22
32
8
30
32
16
10
26
24
0
0
200


Troublemaker
30
35
20
25
30
20
10
30
0
0
0
200


flyingdutchdevil
27.5
32.5
15
25
25
10
12.5
27.5
22.5


197.5


79-77
28
33
12
31
25
12
15
28
16


200


Average
27.2
29.8
12.4
27.8
26.9
15.7
16.6
27.5
15.8
0.1
0.3



Std Dev
4.4
2.9
5.5
3.0
2.9
4.9
4.3
2.7
6.7
0.5
0.7

NSDukeFan
06-28-2015, 08:07 PM
Ok, my two cents, from the, love seeing everyone play, perspective, but will not be disappointed when the team plays the starters more and the bigs less, and the team wins a whole bunch more games than they would if they played the minutes I am projecting, perspective.

Obi (18), Marshall (19), Amile (2), Chase (1)
Amile (25), Chase (10), Ingram (3), Obi (2)
Ingram (26), Matt (10), Luke (3), Amile (1)
Matt (17), Grayson (16),Luke (7)
Derryck (27), Grayson (9), Luke (4)

Kedsy
06-28-2015, 08:33 PM
The Final RSCI (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/2015-final) is out.

Here are the Duke recruit rankings:

Brandon Ingram: #4
Derryck Thornton: #13
Chase Jeter: #14
Luke Kennard: #21
Justin Robinson: #95

(Antonio Vrankovic is unranked)

NSDukeFan
06-28-2015, 08:47 PM
The Final RSCI (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/2015-final) is out.

Here are the Duke recruit rankings:

Brandon Ingram: #4
Derryck Thornton: #13
Chase Jeter: #14
Luke Kennard: #21
Justin Robinson: #95

(Antonio Vrankovic is unranked)

Interesting and impressive, to see Robinson ranked.

roywhite
06-28-2015, 08:53 PM
The Final RSCI (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/2015-final) is out.

Here are the Duke recruit rankings:

Brandon Ingram: #4
Derryck Thornton: #13
Chase Jeter: #14
Luke Kennard: #21
Justin Robinson: #95

(Antonio Vrankovic is unranked)


Interesting and impressive, to see Robinson ranked.

Actually, that's not our Justin Robinson.
This one is a 6'1" PG who signed with Va Tech.

Justin Robinson profile (http://sports.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/basketball/recruiting/player-Justin-Robinson-158119)

Kedsy
06-28-2015, 09:13 PM
Actually, that's not our Justin Robinson.
This one is a 6'1" PG who signed with Va Tech.

Oops. Sorry about that.

Bluedog
06-29-2015, 08:45 AM
Yep, our Justin Robinson is ranked 361 according to the 247Sports composite. Vrankovic is 199...I thought Vrank would be a bit higher (ie closer to the top 100) in all honesty. I guess ESPN is the only one that has him as 3-star recruit -- Scout and Rivals don't give him any stars.

Indoor66
06-29-2015, 10:41 AM
Yep, our Justin Robinson is ranked 361 according to the 247Sports composite. Vrankovic is 199...I thought Vrank would be a bit higher (ie closer to the top 100) in all honesty. I guess ESPN is the only one that has him as 3-star recruit -- Scout and Rivals don't give him any stars.

Maybe our coaches see a diamond in the rough. I hope so.

Neals384
10-19-2015, 10:10 AM
OK, bumping this thread. I realize there have been 2015-16 minutes discussions in other threads over the summer, but it's too much for me to collect them all. If you wish to be part of my unofficial 2015-16 minutes raffle, please post your guesses here. Deadline: before first exhibition game begins. Winner gets a huge basket full of sporks!

Entries to date (yes, changes are allowed):




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Antonio
Justin
Walk-ons
Total


79-77
28
33
12
31
25
12
15
28
16
0
0
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
0
0
200


CDu
28
28
16
28
22
24
12
22
20
0
0
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
0
0
200


David Bunklley
20
29
16
25
27
18
17
30
18
0
0
0
200


flyingdutchdevil
27.5
32.5
15
25
25
10
12.5
27.5
22.5
0
0
0
197.5


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
0
0
200


gumbomoop
22
25
16
30
25
22
18
25
18
0
0
0
201


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
2
2
0
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
30
25
10
20
30
20
0
0
0
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
0
0
2
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
0
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
0
0
200


mr. synellinden
22
32
8
30
32
16
10
26
24
0
0
0
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
0
0
200


neals384
25
30
13
25
25
15
17
30
20
0
0
0
200


NSDukeFan
28
29
11
27
25
14
19
27
20
0
0
0
200


Troublemaker
30
35
20
25
30
20
10
30
0
0
0
0
200

wilson
10-19-2015, 10:11 AM
Patrick Davidson: 200

Neals384
10-19-2015, 10:15 AM
I'm revising my guess as follows:

Amile 30
Chase 10
Marshall 20
Sean 12
Luke 18
others unchanged

Neals384
10-19-2015, 10:16 AM
Patrick Davidson: 200

We have a winner!

Neals384
10-29-2015, 04:45 PM
Bump. Last chance - deadline to enter is 7 PM Friday

CDu
10-29-2015, 05:22 PM
Bump. Last chance - deadline to enter is 7 PM Friday

I am gonna revise my guess to:

C: Plumlee (15), Obi (15), Jeter (10)
PF: Jefferson (28), Ingram (12)
SF: Ingram (20), Jones (20)
SG: Allen (25), Kennard (10), Jones (5)
PG: Thornton (30), Kennard (10)

mattman91
10-29-2015, 06:46 PM
I guess I'll play...

Allen 32
Ingram 32
Jones 30
Jefferson 30
Thornton 27
Plumlee 20
Kennard 18
Jeter 7
Obi 4

timmy c
10-29-2015, 08:21 PM
Here is my 7.5 man minutes rotation.

Grayson Allen ....32
Brandon Ingram...32
Amile Jefferson.. .30
Matt Jones . .. ...29
Luke Kennard... ..26
MP3 .... .... .....22
Derryck Thornton..15
Chase Jeter ... ...12
Sean Obi ..... .....2

mr. synellinden
10-29-2015, 08:32 PM
I'm going to revise my front court minutes distribution as follows:

Amile - 28
MPIII - 16
Jeter - 12
Obi - 8

Everyone else stays the same.

MChambers
10-29-2015, 08:33 PM
Jones 27
Jefferson 28
Plumlee 20
Ingram 28
Thornton 23
Allen 26
Obi 5
Jeter 19
Kennard 24

If those don't add to 200, don't tell me.

DukieTiger
10-29-2015, 09:11 PM
I'll play:
Thornton: 20
Kennard: 20
Allen: 32
Jones: 29
Ingram: 27
Jefferson: 28
Jeter: 16
Plum3: 23
Obi: 5

Furniture
10-29-2015, 09:45 PM
Me2.
Thornton: 26
Kennard: 20
Allen: 25
Jones: 25
Ingram: 30
Jefferson: 30
Jeter: 14
Plum3: 20
Obi: 10

NSDukeFan
10-30-2015, 05:35 AM
I'll change mine to:
Ingram 31
Jefferson 29
Jones 28
Allen 28
Thornton 26
Plumlee 20
Kennard 17
Jeter 12
Obi 8
Robinson 1

sagegrouse
10-30-2015, 07:51 AM
First, let's agree that we are talking about players' total minutes divided by the total number of Duke games. Why? Injuries and DNP will distort the numbers and result in more than 200 minutes per game if we divide players' minutes by number of games in which he played and then sum the totals. IMHO (where the H has been lost for decades), this will tend to dampen minutes per game when and if key players sit out a game or three for one reason or another.

So, here's my take: First, we will use shifting lineups and no one on the team will average more than 30 MPG. This is not Ol' Sage calling for a ten-man rotation, but a reflection that the lineup is not set and may not be set until March.

Amile Jefferson 28
Chase Jeter 15
Marshall Plumlee 20
Sean Obi 5

Brandon Ingram 28
Matt Jones 28
Grayson Allen 28
Justin Robinson 2

Derryck Thornton 25
Luke Kennard 20

Others 1

If there are two OT games, then that will add a minute or two to the total.

Upside potential? It may be that Matt Jones is just a player that needs to be on the floor almost all the time. Also, if either Grayson Allen or Brandon become a first-team All-American, he will play a lot more than 28 MPG, but I have no intention of heaping those expectations on Grayson and Brandon. More importantly, neither did K at the basketball tip-off.

whereinthehellami
10-30-2015, 08:43 AM
These minute predictions were weeded from Scenario 12.

Allen 30
Jones 30
Ingram 29
Jefferson 28
Thornton 25
Plumlee 20
Kennard 20
Jeter 10
Obi 7
Robinson 1

Troublemaker
10-30-2015, 09:12 AM
Here's my late April stab at minutes:





Starters



Rotation



in blowouts


25
Fr
DThornton

20
Fr
Kennard






30
So
Allen










35
Fr
Ingram

30
Jr
MJones

0
Fr
Robinson


30
Sr
Jefferson





0
So
Obi


20
Fr
Jeter

10
Sr
Marshall


Rs
Vrankovic




Modifying to this:





Starters



Rotation



in blowouts


30
So
Allen

20
Fr
DThornton






30
Jr
MJones

20
Fr
Kennard






30
Fr
Ingram





2
Fr
Robinson


30
Sr
Jefferson





3
So
Obi


25
Sr
Marshall

10
Fr
Jeter

0
Rs
Vrankovic

luvdahops
10-30-2015, 10:16 AM
Ingram 30
Jefferson 30
Allen 28
Thornton 27
Jones 25
Kennard 20
Plumlee 20
Jeter 12
Obi 8

Neals384
10-30-2015, 10:49 AM
First, let's agree that we are talking about players' total minutes divided by the total number of Duke games. Why? Injuries and DNP will distort the numbers and result in more than 200 minutes per game if we divide players' minutes by number of games in which he played and then sum the totals. IMHO (where the H has been lost for decades), this will tend to dampen minutes per game when and if key players sit out a game or three for one reason or another.


Yes, total minutes for the season divided by total number of Duke games. That was spelled out somewhere upthread, but thank you for reminding folks.

This means that minutes stats from espn and elsewhere will not match our calculations for players who missed games.

As an example, Kyrie Irving (2011-2012) played 11 games and averaged 27.5 minutes, according to espn. We would take his total season minutes and divide by 37 games, giving his average as 8 minutes per game.

phaedrus
10-30-2015, 10:59 AM
As an example, Kyrie Irving (2011-2012) played 11 games and averaged 27.5 minutes, according to espn. We would take his total season minutes and divide by 37 games, giving his average as 8 minutes per game.

I can't understand why Coach K didn't play him more. Here's my guess:

Allen 28
Jones 24
Ingram 31
Jefferson 26
Thornton 28
Plumlee 20
Kennard 18
Jeter 14
Obi 8
Robinson 1

ice-9
10-30-2015, 11:14 AM
My updated prediction...

Thornton: 26
Kennard: 20
Jones: 27
Allen: 27

Ingram: 30
Jefferson: 30

Plumlee: 20
Obi: 15
Jeter: 5

I predict next year's team to be a fast-paced, perimeter-oriented team whose identity will be defence. So Jones will get a lot of burn and Allen will come off the bench but still get minutes for offence. Thornton is likely our long-term solution at PG, but based on what people have been saying about Kennard's maturity, he'll play, primarily as back-up PG and also to score.

Ingram will get as many minutes as he can handle. But he's a skinny dude and a freshman, so I'm pegging it at 30. Amile will play PF most of the time, but when the team wants to go ultra fast I can see him running at C.

I'm not hearing any hype about Obi, so he's probably not supplanting Plumlee, but he's got a track record so I'll be surprised if he doesn't play. Plumlee can run so I can see him fit in even up-tempo. It's tiring though so I'm guessing 20 minutes. I don't think Jeter is ready this year.

DallasDevil
10-30-2015, 01:03 PM
Okay, so here's my final minutes prediction:

Ingram: 33
Allen: 30
Jones: 29
Jefferson: 27
Thornton: 23
Kennard: 21
Plumlee: 17
Jeter: 11
Obi: 7
Robinson: 2
Pagliuca: 1
Vrankovic: redshirt
Besser: redshirt

kAzE
10-30-2015, 02:45 PM
Thornton: 33
Allen: 32
Ingram: 31
Jones: 30
Jefferson: 28
Plumlee: 24
Kennard: 12
Jeter: 8
Obi: 2

jipops
10-30-2015, 04:34 PM
Bump. Last chance - deadline to enter is 7 PM Friday



Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Antonio
Justin
Walkons
Total


32
29
12
24
33
13
21
28
6
0
2
0
200

gumbomoop
10-30-2015, 06:51 PM
Just under the wire, I hope. Spent the last 8-10 hours trying to get Luke up to 38 minutes, but couldn't pull it off.

Ingram 30
Allen 29
Jefferson 28
Jones 27
Kennard 27
Plumlee 24
Thornton 20
Jeter 11
Obi 4

NSDukeFan
10-30-2015, 08:36 PM
Just under the wire, I hope. Spent the last 8-10 hours trying to get Luke up to 38 minutes, but couldn't pull it off.

Ingram 30
Allen 29
Jefferson 28
Jones 27
Kennard 27
Plumlee 24
Thornton 20
Jeter 11
Obi 4
Don't sell him short. A few overtime games and Kennard could get up to 41 minutes a game.

Neals384
11-12-2015, 01:36 PM
OK, here are the entries:




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others
Total


79-77
28
33
12
31
25
12
15
28
16
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
200


CDu
28
32
10
30
25
20
15
25
15
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
200


DallasDevil
27
33
11
23
30
21
17
29
7
3
201


David Bunklley
20
29
16
25
27
18
17
30
18
0
200


DukieTiger
28
27
16
20
32
20
23
29
5
0
200


flyingdutchdevil
27.5
32.5
15
25
25
10
12.5
27.5
22.5
0
197.5


Furniture
30
30
14
26
25
20
20
25
10
0
200


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
200


gumbomoop
28
30
11
20
29
27
24
27
4
0
200


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
4
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
26
27
20
20
27
15
0
200


jipops
32
29
12
24
33
13
21
28
6
2
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
2
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
200


kAzE
28
31
8
33
32
12
24
30
2
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
200


luvdahops
30
30
12
27
28
20
20
25
8
0
200


mattman91
30
32
7
27
32
18
20
30
4
0
200


MChambers
28
28
19
23
26
24
20
27
5
0
200


mr. synellinden
28
32
12
30
32
16
16
26
8
0
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
200


neals384
30
30
10
25
25
18
20
30
12
0
200


NSDukeFan
29
31
12
26
28
17
20
28
8
1
200


phaedrus
26
31
14
28
28
18
20
24
8
1
198


sagegrouse
28
28
15
25
28
20
20
28
5
3
200


timmy c
30
32
12
15
32
26
22
29
2
0
200


Troublemaker
30
30
10
20
30
20
25
30
3
2
200


wherethehellami
28
29
10
25
30
20
20
30
7
1
200


Average
28.2
30.2
11.9
25.9
28.2
17.4
19.3
27.8
10.3
0.6
199.9




phaedrus, I have your total at 198. If you wish to throw 2 more minutes at one player, let me know. flyingdutch, you're 2.5 minutes short.

If I missed anyone who previously responded to this thread, or I mis-transcribed your minutes, please do let me know. No other changes or new entries at this point, sorry.

I'll try to report on interim results during the season, perhaps at the end of each phase. Final winner to be determined in early April!

Go Duke!

Furniture
11-12-2015, 11:04 PM
Thanks Neals. I am almost certainly completely wrong but this is going to be fun.....

flyingdutchdevil
11-13-2015, 08:36 AM
OK, here are the entries:




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others
Total


79-77
28
33
12
31
25
12
15
28
16
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
200


CDu
28
32
10
30
25
20
15
25
15
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
200


DallasDevil
27
33
11
23
30
21
17
29
7
3
201


David Bunklley
20
29
16
25
27
18
17
30
18
0
200


DukieTiger
28
27
16
20
32
20
23
29
5
0
200


flyingdutchdevil
27.5
32.5
15
25
25
10
12.5
27.5
22.5
0
197.5


Furniture
30
30
14
26
25
20
20
25
10
0
200


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
200


gumbomoop
28
30
11
20
29
27
24
27
4
0
200


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
4
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
26
27
20
20
27
15
0
200


jipops
32
29
12
24
33
13
21
28
6
2
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
2
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
200


kAzE
28
31
8
33
32
12
24
30
2
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
200


luvdahops
30
30
12
27
28
20
20
25
8
0
200


mattman91
30
32
7
27
32
18
20
30
4
0
200


MChambers
28
28
19
23
26
24
20
27
5
0
200


mr. synellinden
28
32
12
30
32
16
16
26
8
0
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
200


neals384
30
30
10
25
25
18
20
30
12
0
200


NSDukeFan
29
31
12
26
28
17
20
28
8
1
200


phaedrus
26
31
14
28
28
18
20
24
8
1
198


sagegrouse
28
28
15
25
28
20
20
28
5
3
200


timmy c
30
32
12
15
32
26
22
29
2
0
200


Troublemaker
30
30
10
20
30
20
25
30
3
2
200


wherethehellami
28
29
10
25
30
20
20
30
7
1
200


Average
28.2
30.2
11.9
25.9
28.2
17.4
19.3
27.8
10.3
0.6
199.9




phaedrus, I have your total at 198. If you wish to throw 2 more minutes at one player, let me know. flyingdutch, you're 2.5 minutes short.

If I missed anyone who previously responded to this thread, or I mis-transcribed your minutes, please do let me know. No other changes or new entries at this point, sorry.

I'll try to report on interim results during the season, perhaps at the end of each phase. Final winner to be determined in early April!

Go Duke!

Thanks Neal. I have no idea why I can't add. I'll throw the other 2.5 at Amile for an even 30.

GGLC
11-13-2015, 10:42 AM
I meant to come back and revise mine. Ah well. :)

phaedrus
11-13-2015, 10:43 AM
OK, here are the entries:



phaedrus, I have your total at 198. If you wish to throw 2 more minutes at one player, let me know. flyingdutch, you're 2.5 minutes short.



Very disappointing, since my main objective was to get the minutes to add up correctly, and even worse, I was a math minor at Duke.

That said, I'll take this opportunity to add 1 minute to Amile and 1 to "others."

Neals384
11-13-2015, 11:41 AM
OK, here is the final list.




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others
Total


79-77
28
33
12
31
25
12
15
28
16
0
200


ACCBBallFan
27.5
27.5
12.5
27.5
25
12.5
15
27.5
25
0
200


CDu
28
32
10
30
25
20
15
25
15
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
33
5
25
26
10
20
30
16
0
200


DallasDevil
27
33
11
23
30
21
17
29
7
3
201


David Bunklley
20
29
16
25
27
18
17
30
18
0
200


DukieTiger
28
27
16
20
32
20
23
29
5
0
200


flyingdutchdevil
30
32.5
15
25
25
10
12.5
27.5
22.5
0
200


Furniture
30
30
14
26
25
20
20
25
10
0
200


GGLC
35
30
5
25
25
15
20
30
15
0
200


gumbomoop
28
30
11
20
29
27
24
27
4
0
200


gurufrisbee
24
28
20
28
28
16
16
24
12
4
200


Ice-9
30
30
5
26
27
20
20
27
15
0
200


jipops
32
29
12
24
33
13
21
28
6
2
200


JNort
23
33
20
34
31
9
15
27
6
2
200


jv001
24
30
10
32
28
10
20
28
18
0
200


kAzE
28
31
8
33
32
12
24
30
2
0
200


Li Duke
25
30
12.5
25
30
20
15
30
12.5
0
200


luvdahops
30
30
12
27
28
20
20
25
8
0
200


mattman91
30
32
7
27
32
18
20
30
4
0
200


MChambers
28
28
19
23
26
24
20
27
5
0
200


mr. synellinden
28
32
12
30
32
16
16
26
8
0
200


ncexnyc
30
25
10
25
25
20
25
25
15
0
200


neals384
30
30
10
25
25
18
20
30
12
0
200


NSDukeFan
29
31
12
26
28
17
20
28
8
1
200


phaedrus
27
31
14
28
28
18
20
24
8
2
200


sagegrouse
28
28
15
25
28
20
20
28
5
3
200


timmy c
30
32
12
15
32
26
22
29
2
0
200


Troublemaker
30
30
10
20
30
20
25
30
3
2
200


wherethehellami
28
29
10
25
30
20
20
30
7
1
200


Average
28.4
30.2
11.9
25.9
28.2
17.4
19.3
27.8
10.3
0.7
200.0



OK, later on when I'm scoring this, I'm also going to calculate a score for "Average". Is it possible that the average of all our guesses is the best guess? Crowd sourcing of minutes?

sagegrouse
11-13-2015, 03:55 PM
Just for laughs, I calculated the minimum and maximum values for each player from the 30 entries. Here they are --



Min. Max. Diff. Pct. Var.
Amile 20 35 15 55%
Brandon 25 33 8 28%
Chase 5 20 15 120%
Derryck 15 34 19 78%
Grayson 25 33 8 28%
Luke 9 27 18 100%
MP3 13 25 13 67%
Matt 24 30 6 22%
Sean 2 25 23 170%
Others - 4 4 200%



There is the most consensus on Matt (24 to 30 mins.) and then Brandon (25 to 33) and Grayson (25 to 33). Lots of disagreement on Chase (5 to 20) and Luke (9 to 27) and especially on Sean Obi (2 to 25).

Go Duke!

Sage
'The "pct. var." is the difference between min. and max. divided by the average of min. and max., and of course, there is a better way to measure variation, but it's so much more work'

Neals384
03-06-2016, 12:04 AM
OK, here is the preliminary result of our contest. mattman91 has a healthy lead. His forecasts on Brandon (32 minutes), Chase (7), Derrick (27), Grayson (32), Matt (30), and Sean (4) separated him from the pack.

Here are the actual average minutes thru the end of the regular season (total minutes played divided by 31):



Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others


08:49
33:51
06:36
26:45
35:56
25:19
30:43
31:15
00:42
00:52



And the standings (each entry is the absolute value of the guess minus the actual for that player):




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others
Difference


mattman91
21:11
01:51
00:24
00:15
03:56
07:19
10:43
01:15
03:18
00:52
00:51:03


Troublemaker
21:11
03:51
03:24
06:45
05:56
05:19
05:43
01:15
02:18
01:08
00:56:50


kAzE
19:11
02:51
01:24
06:15
03:56
13:19
06:43
01:15
01:18
00:52
00:57:03


timmy c
21:11
01:51
05:24
11:45
03:56
00:41
08:43
02:15
01:18
00:52
00:57:55


gumbomoop
19:11
03:51
04:24
06:45
06:56
01:41
06:43
04:15
03:18
00:52
00:57:55


wherethehellami
19:11
04:51
03:24
01:45
05:56
05:19
10:43
01:15
06:18
00:08
00:58:50


DallasDevil
18:11
00:51
04:24
03:45
05:56
04:19
13:43
02:15
06:18
02:08
01:01:50


DukieTiger
19:11
06:51
09:24
06:45
03:56
05:19
07:43
02:15
04:18
00:52
01:06:33


NSDukeFan
20:11
02:51
05:24
00:45
07:56
08:19
10:43
03:15
07:18
00:08
01:06:50


Li Duke
16:11
03:51
05:54
01:45
05:56
05:19
15:43
01:15
11:48
00:52
01:08:33


sagegrouse
19:11
05:51
08:24
01:45
07:56
05:19
10:43
03:15
04:18
02:08
01:08:50


luvdahops
21:11
03:51
05:24
00:15
07:56
05:19
10:43
06:15
07:18
00:52
01:09:03


jipops
23:11
04:51
05:24
02:45
02:56
12:19
09:43
03:15
05:18
01:08
01:10:50


mr. synellinden
19:11
01:51
05:24
03:15
03:56
09:19
14:43
05:15
07:18
00:52
01:11:03


phaedrus
18:11
02:51
07:24
01:15
07:56
07:19
10:43
07:15
07:18
01:08
01:11:20


Ice-9
21:11
03:51
01:36
00:45
08:56
05:19
10:43
04:15
14:18
00:52
01:11:45


neals384
21:11
03:51
03:24
01:45
10:56
07:19
10:43
01:15
11:18
00:52
01:12:33


MChambers
19:11
05:51
12:24
03:45
09:56
01:19
10:43
04:15
04:18
00:52
01:12:33


David Bunklley
11:11
04:51
09:24
01:45
08:56
07:19
13:43
01:15
17:18
00:52
01:16:33


Furniture
21:11
03:51
07:24
00:45
10:56
05:19
10:43
06:15
09:18
00:52
01:16:33


ncexnyc
21:11
08:51
03:24
01:45
10:56
05:19
05:43
06:15
14:18
00:52
01:18:33


CDu
19:11
01:51
03:24
03:15
10:56
05:19
15:43
06:15
14:18
00:52
01:21:03


GGLC
26:11
03:51
01:36
01:45
10:56
10:19
10:43
01:15
14:18
00:52
01:21:45


jv001
15:11
03:51
03:24
05:15
07:56
15:19
10:43
03:15
17:18
00:52
01:23:03


JNort
14:11
00:51
13:24
07:15
04:56
16:19
15:43
04:15
05:18
01:08
01:23:20


ChillinDuke
26:11
00:51
01:36
01:45
09:56
15:19
10:43
01:15
15:18
00:52
01:23:45


79-77
19:11
00:51
05:24
04:15
10:56
13:19
15:43
03:15
15:18
00:52
01:29:03


gurufrisbee
15:11
05:51
13:24
01:15
07:56
09:19
14:43
07:15
11:18
03:08
01:29:20


ACCBBallFan
18:41
06:21
05:54
00:45
10:56
12:49
15:43
03:45
24:18
00:52
01:40:03


flyingdutchdevil
21:11
01:21
08:24
01:45
10:56
15:19
18:13
03:45
21:48
00:52
01:43:33

ice-9
03-06-2016, 10:02 AM
Sigh, Obi one cannot be...

timmy c
03-06-2016, 10:18 AM
Congrats, Mattman! You nailed both Chase's and Thornton's minutes and did not overestimate Obi's contributions by much. I don't know how anyone can catch you at this point. Well done!

kAzE
03-06-2016, 11:35 AM
Underestimating Luke killed me. However, I was on board from the first game that I saw of him, and immediately regretted not giving him more minutes. Well played, mattman. Well played.

By the way, this was fun! We should do this every year :)

NSDukeFan
03-06-2016, 12:03 PM
I certainly didn't see Grayson making this kind of freshman to sophomore jump. Wow!

whereinthehellami
03-07-2016, 09:22 AM
Thanks for putting this together. This was fun to follow and it would be cool to do this again next year.

JNort
03-21-2016, 09:04 PM
My how far we have come, looks like many were under selling Amile (myself included). With his injury though it really threw many of our predictions waay off.

Newton_14
03-21-2016, 11:17 PM
OK, here is the preliminary result of our contest. mattman91 has a healthy lead. His forecasts on Brandon (32 minutes), Chase (7), Derrick (27), Grayson (32), Matt (30), and Sean (4) separated him from the pack.

Here are the actual average minutes thru the end of the regular season (total minutes played divided by 31):



Amile

Brandon

Chase

Derryck

Grayson

Luke

Marshall

Matt

Sean

Others



08:49

33:51

06:36

26:45

35:56

25:19

30:43

31:15

00:42

00:52




And the standings (each entry is the absolute value of the guess minus the actual for that player):




Amile

Brandon

Chase

Derryck

Grayson

Luke

Marshall

Matt

Sean

Others

Difference



mattman91

21:11

01:51

00:24

00:15

03:56

07:19

10:43

01:15

03:18

00:52

00:51:03



Troublemaker

21:11

03:51

03:24

06:45

05:56

05:19

05:43

01:15

02:18

01:08

00:56:50



kAzE

19:11

02:51

01:24

06:15

03:56

13:19

06:43

01:15

01:18

00:52

00:57:03



timmy c

21:11

01:51

05:24

11:45

03:56

00:41

08:43

02:15

01:18

00:52

00:57:55



gumbomoop

19:11

03:51

04:24

06:45

06:56

01:41

06:43

04:15

03:18

00:52

00:57:55



wherethehellami

19:11

04:51

03:24

01:45

05:56

05:19

10:43

01:15

06:18

00:08

00:58:50



DallasDevil

18:11

00:51

04:24

03:45

05:56

04:19

13:43

02:15

06:18

02:08

01:01:50



DukieTiger

19:11

06:51

09:24

06:45

03:56

05:19

07:43

02:15

04:18

00:52

01:06:33



NSDukeFan

20:11

02:51

05:24

00:45

07:56

08:19

10:43

03:15

07:18

00:08

01:06:50



Li Duke

16:11

03:51

05:54

01:45

05:56

05:19

15:43

01:15

11:48

00:52

01:08:33



sagegrouse

19:11

05:51

08:24

01:45

07:56

05:19

10:43

03:15

04:18

02:08

01:08:50



luvdahops

21:11

03:51

05:24

00:15

07:56

05:19

10:43

06:15

07:18

00:52

01:09:03



jipops

23:11

04:51

05:24

02:45

02:56

12:19

09:43

03:15

05:18

01:08

01:10:50



mr. synellinden

19:11

01:51

05:24

03:15

03:56

09:19

14:43

05:15

07:18

00:52

01:11:03



phaedrus

18:11

02:51

07:24

01:15

07:56

07:19

10:43

07:15

07:18

01:08

01:11:20



Ice-9

21:11

03:51

01:36

00:45

08:56

05:19

10:43

04:15

14:18

00:52

01:11:45



neals384

21:11

03:51

03:24

01:45

10:56

07:19

10:43

01:15

11:18

00:52

01:12:33



MChambers

19:11

05:51

12:24

03:45

09:56

01:19

10:43

04:15

04:18

00:52

01:12:33



David Bunklley

11:11

04:51

09:24

01:45

08:56

07:19

13:43

01:15

17:18

00:52

01:16:33



Furniture

21:11

03:51

07:24

00:45

10:56

05:19

10:43

06:15

09:18

00:52

01:16:33



ncexnyc

21:11

08:51

03:24

01:45

10:56

05:19

05:43

06:15

14:18

00:52

01:18:33



CDu

19:11

01:51

03:24

03:15

10:56

05:19

15:43

06:15

14:18

00:52

01:21:03



GGLC

26:11

03:51

01:36

01:45

10:56

10:19

10:43

01:15

14:18

00:52

01:21:45



jv001

15:11

03:51

03:24

05:15

07:56

15:19

10:43

03:15

17:18

00:52

01:23:03



JNort

14:11

00:51

13:24

07:15

04:56

16:19

15:43

04:15

05:18

01:08

01:23:20



ChillinDuke

26:11

00:51

01:36

01:45

09:56

15:19

10:43

01:15

15:18

00:52

01:23:45



79-77

19:11

00:51

05:24

04:15

10:56

13:19

15:43

03:15

15:18

00:52

01:29:03



gurufrisbee

15:11

05:51

13:24

01:15

07:56

09:19

14:43

07:15

11:18

03:08

01:29:20



ACCBBallFan

18:41

06:21

05:54

00:45

10:56

12:49

15:43

03:45

24:18

00:52

01:40:03



flyingdutchdevil

21:11

01:21

08:24

01:45

10:56

15:19

18:13

03:45

21:48

00:52

01:43:33





Great stuff Neal. I hate I was unable to participate. It would have been a lot of fun. Looking at the table it is hilarious seeing so many people that I consider very knowledgeable about hoops miss Marshall's minutes by a mile. I would have missed by a lot on him as well. Maybe by less than 10 but would have been close. I probably would have guessed him between 22 and 25mpg.... Just an incredible season by him. I will brag on that kid and his performance this season for years to come. Kudos to ncexnyc for only missing by 5:43 on MP3. He should get the 2nd place prize based on that one prediction alone!

flyingdutchdevil
03-22-2016, 11:11 AM
OK, here is the preliminary result of our contest. mattman91 has a healthy lead. His forecasts on Brandon (32 minutes), Chase (7), Derrick (27), Grayson (32), Matt (30), and Sean (4) separated him from the pack.

Here are the actual average minutes thru the end of the regular season (total minutes played divided by 31):



Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others


08:49
33:51
06:36
26:45
35:56
25:19
30:43
31:15
00:42
00:52



And the standings (each entry is the absolute value of the guess minus the actual for that player):




Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others
Difference


mattman91
21:11
01:51
00:24
00:15
03:56
07:19
10:43
01:15
03:18
00:52
00:51:03


Troublemaker
21:11
03:51
03:24
06:45
05:56
05:19
05:43
01:15
02:18
01:08
00:56:50


kAzE
19:11
02:51
01:24
06:15
03:56
13:19
06:43
01:15
01:18
00:52
00:57:03


timmy c
21:11
01:51
05:24
11:45
03:56
00:41
08:43
02:15
01:18
00:52
00:57:55


gumbomoop
19:11
03:51
04:24
06:45
06:56
01:41
06:43
04:15
03:18
00:52
00:57:55


wherethehellami
19:11
04:51
03:24
01:45
05:56
05:19
10:43
01:15
06:18
00:08
00:58:50


DallasDevil
18:11
00:51
04:24
03:45
05:56
04:19
13:43
02:15
06:18
02:08
01:01:50


DukieTiger
19:11
06:51
09:24
06:45
03:56
05:19
07:43
02:15
04:18
00:52
01:06:33


NSDukeFan
20:11
02:51
05:24
00:45
07:56
08:19
10:43
03:15
07:18
00:08
01:06:50


Li Duke
16:11
03:51
05:54
01:45
05:56
05:19
15:43
01:15
11:48
00:52
01:08:33


sagegrouse
19:11
05:51
08:24
01:45
07:56
05:19
10:43
03:15
04:18
02:08
01:08:50


luvdahops
21:11
03:51
05:24
00:15
07:56
05:19
10:43
06:15
07:18
00:52
01:09:03


jipops
23:11
04:51
05:24
02:45
02:56
12:19
09:43
03:15
05:18
01:08
01:10:50


mr. synellinden
19:11
01:51
05:24
03:15
03:56
09:19
14:43
05:15
07:18
00:52
01:11:03


phaedrus
18:11
02:51
07:24
01:15
07:56
07:19
10:43
07:15
07:18
01:08
01:11:20


Ice-9
21:11
03:51
01:36
00:45
08:56
05:19
10:43
04:15
14:18
00:52
01:11:45


neals384
21:11
03:51
03:24
01:45
10:56
07:19
10:43
01:15
11:18
00:52
01:12:33


MChambers
19:11
05:51
12:24
03:45
09:56
01:19
10:43
04:15
04:18
00:52
01:12:33


David Bunklley
11:11
04:51
09:24
01:45
08:56
07:19
13:43
01:15
17:18
00:52
01:16:33


Furniture
21:11
03:51
07:24
00:45
10:56
05:19
10:43
06:15
09:18
00:52
01:16:33


ncexnyc
21:11
08:51
03:24
01:45
10:56
05:19
05:43
06:15
14:18
00:52
01:18:33


CDu
19:11
01:51
03:24
03:15
10:56
05:19
15:43
06:15
14:18
00:52
01:21:03


GGLC
26:11
03:51
01:36
01:45
10:56
10:19
10:43
01:15
14:18
00:52
01:21:45


jv001
15:11
03:51
03:24
05:15
07:56
15:19
10:43
03:15
17:18
00:52
01:23:03


JNort
14:11
00:51
13:24
07:15
04:56
16:19
15:43
04:15
05:18
01:08
01:23:20


ChillinDuke
26:11
00:51
01:36
01:45
09:56
15:19
10:43
01:15
15:18
00:52
01:23:45


79-77
19:11
00:51
05:24
04:15
10:56
13:19
15:43
03:15
15:18
00:52
01:29:03


gurufrisbee
15:11
05:51
13:24
01:15
07:56
09:19
14:43
07:15
11:18
03:08
01:29:20


ACCBBallFan
18:41
06:21
05:54
00:45
10:56
12:49
15:43
03:45
24:18
00:52
01:40:03


flyingdutchdevil
21:11
01:21
08:24
01:45
10:56
15:19
18:13
03:45
21:48
00:52
01:43:33



If you ain't first, you're last.

NSDukeFan
03-22-2016, 05:13 PM
Great stuff Neal. I hate I was unable to participate. It would have been a lot of fun. Looking at the table it is hilarious seeing so many people that I consider very knowledgeable about hoops miss Marshall's minutes by a mile. I would have missed by a lot on him as well. Maybe by less than 10 but would have been close. I probably would have guessed him between 22 and 25mpg... Just an incredible season by him. I will brag on that kid and his performance this season for years to come. Kudos to ncexnyc for only missing by 5:43 on MP3. He should get the 2nd place prize based on that one prediction alone!

Not a fan of Troublemaker or does he/she cause too much trouble?

JNort
03-22-2016, 05:38 PM
Great stuff Neal. I hate I was unable to participate. It would have been a lot of fun. Looking at the table it is hilarious seeing so many people that I consider very knowledgeable about hoops miss Marshall's minutes by a mile. I would have missed by a lot on him as well. Maybe by less than 10 but would have been close. I probably would have guessed him between 22 and 25mpg... Just an incredible season by him. I will brag on that kid and his performance this season for years to come. Kudos to ncexnyc for only missing by 5:43 on MP3. He should get the 2nd place prize based on that one prediction alone!

Granted if Amile was healthy then Plum3 would have had less pt

CDu
03-22-2016, 09:32 PM
Granted if Amile was healthy then Plum3 would have had less pt

Yeah, if Jefferson stayed healthy then Plumlee probably stays around 25 mpg, Jeter's minutes take a hit, and one or both of Kennard and Thornton sees less time as Ingram plays a bit more at the 3.

grad_devil
03-23-2016, 08:43 AM
Yeah, if Jefferson stayed healthy then Plumlee probably stays around 25 mpg, Jeter's minutes take a hit, and one or both of Kennard and Thornton sees less time as Ingram plays a bit more at the 3.

You bring up an excellent point. If Amile stays healthy, it's highly doubtful Mattman91 runs away with this "competition".

Amile was hurt during a practice, correct? Can anyone account for Mattman's whereabouts on the day of said practice? Perhaps he journeyed the I-40 corridor from Asheville to Durham in order to incapacitate Amile and rig the entire competition. Something's shady here...

Mattman, we demand the truth! Whether we can handle it or not.

Neals384
03-25-2016, 05:31 PM
Congrats to mattman91, winner of our minutes contest and the Golden Spork. gumbomoop was second for the Silver Spork, and timmy c third for Bronze.

mattman91's guesses were remarkable: he nailed Chase, Derryck and Matt within a minute of actual. No one thought Brandon would play as much as his actual 34:34, but mattman91 guessed 32 minutes (only 79-77, ChillinDuke, DallasDevil and JNort did better at 33 minutes). Same story with Grayson: no one got close to his actual 36:38, but mattman91 guessed 32 minutes (only jipops did better with 33). Many entries were messed up by Sean's minutes, but mattman91 (and gumbomoop) did better than most with a 4 minute guess (only timmy c and Troublemaker topped that with 2 minutes and 3 minutes, respectively).

mattman91's big misses included only Marshall and Luke. No one predicted Marshall's actual 30:29: ncexnyc and Troublemaker were closest at 25 minutes. Like most, mattman91 didn't forecast Luke anywhere near his actual 26:36, but Silver Spork winner gumbomoop and Bronze Spork winner timmy c did at 27 and 26 minutes respectively.

Everyone's guesses were messed up by Amile's injury, of course. Those who guessed less, like DavidBunkley, got lucky. I considered that perhaps we should throw out Amile and score the contest without him, but that's not how the rules were set up. I did look at the numbers sans Amile, and guess what? mattman91 would still be the winner.

Have heard from several who enjoyed this so I'll set it up again next season. Look for a contest invitation sometime a bit before Blue-White, with entries closing at tip-off of the first exhibition game. Of course, I expect the 2016-17 Minutes thread to be started by someone much sooner than that - why isn't it up already?

Actual Minutes (total season minutes divided by 36)


Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others


07:36
34:34
07:05
26:04
36:38
26:36
30:29
30:52
00:46
00:44



Final Result (each column is absolute value of actual minutes minus guess minutes):



Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others
Difference



mattman91
22:24
02:34
00:05
00:56
04:38
08:36
10:29
00:52
03:14
00:44
00:54:31
Gold


gumbomoop
20:24
04:34
03:55
06:04
07:38
00:24
06:29
03:52
03:14
00:44
00:57:17
Silver


timmy c
22:24
02:34
04:55
11:04
04:38
00:36
08:29
01:52
01:14
00:44
00:58:29
Bronze


Troublemaker
22:24
04:34
02:55
06:04
06:38
06:36
05:29
00:52
02:14
01:16
00:59:00



kAzE
20:24
03:34
00:55
06:56
04:38
14:36
06:29
00:52
01:14
00:44
01:00:21



wherethehellami
20:24
05:34
02:55
01:04
06:38
06:36
10:29
00:52
06:14
00:16
01:01:00



DallasDevil
19:24
01:34
03:55
03:04
06:38
05:36
13:29
01:52
06:14
02:16
01:04:00



DukieTiger
20:24
07:34
08:55
06:04
04:38
06:36
07:29
01:52
04:14
00:44
01:08:29



NSDukeFan
21:24
03:34
04:55
00:04
08:38
09:36
10:29
02:52
07:14
00:16
01:09:00



Li Duke
17:24
04:34
05:25
01:04
06:38
06:36
15:29
00:52
11:44
00:44
01:10:29



sagegrouse
20:24
06:34
07:55
01:04
08:38
06:36
10:29
02:52
04:14
02:16
01:11:00



Average
20:45
04:22
04:51
00:13
08:24
09:11
11:14
03:04
09:34
00:04
01:11:41



luvdahops
22:24
04:34
04:55
00:56
08:38
06:36
10:29
05:52
07:14
00:44
01:12:21



jipops
24:24
05:34
04:55
02:04
03:38
13:36
09:29
02:52
05:14
01:16
01:13:00



mr. synellinden
20:24
02:34
04:55
03:56
04:38
10:36
14:29
04:52
07:14
00:44
01:14:21



neals384
22:24
04:34
02:55
01:04
11:38
08:36
10:29
00:52
11:14
00:44
01:14:29



MChambers
20:24
06:34
11:55
03:04
10:38
02:36
10:29
03:52
04:14
00:44
01:14:29



Ice-9
22:24
04:34
02:05
00:04
09:38
06:36
10:29
03:52
14:14
00:44
01:14:39



phaedrus
19:24
03:34
06:55
01:56
08:38
08:36
10:29
06:52
07:14
01:16
01:14:52



David Bunklley
12:24
05:34
08:55
01:04
09:38
08:36
13:29
00:52
17:14
00:44
01:18:29



Furniture
22:24
04:34
06:55
00:04
11:38
06:36
10:29
05:52
09:14
00:44
01:18:29



ncexnyc
22:24
09:34
02:55
01:04
11:38
06:36
05:29
05:52
14:14
00:44
01:20:29



CDu
20:24
02:34
02:55
03:56
11:38
06:36
15:29
05:52
14:14
00:44
01:24:21



GGLC
27:24
04:34
02:05
01:04
11:38
11:36
10:29
00:52
14:14
00:44
01:24:39



jv001
16:24
04:34
02:55
05:56
08:38
16:36
10:29
02:52
17:14
00:44
01:26:21



ChillinDuke
27:24
01:34
02:05
01:04
10:38
16:36
10:29
00:52
15:14
00:44
01:26:39



JNort
15:24
01:34
12:55
07:56
05:38
17:36
15:29
03:52
05:14
01:16
01:26:52



79-77
20:24
01:34
04:55
04:56
11:38
14:36
15:29
02:52
15:14
00:44
01:32:21



gurufrisbee
16:24
06:34
12:55
01:56
08:38
10:36
14:29
06:52
11:14
03:16
01:32:52



ACCBBallFan
19:54
07:04
05:25
01:26
11:38
14:06
15:29
03:22
24:14
00:44
01:43:21



flyingdutchdevil
22:24
02:04
07:55
01:04
11:38
16:36
17:59
03:22
21:44
00:44
01:45:29





And the guesses:



Amile
Brandon
Chase
Derryck
Grayson
Luke
Marshall
Matt
Sean
Others


79-77
28:00
33:00
12:00
31:00
25:00
12:00
15:00
28:00
16:00
00:00


ACCBBallFan
27:30
27:30
12:30
27:30
25:00
12:30
15:00
27:30
25:00
00:00


CDu
28:00
32:00
10:00
30:00
25:00
20:00
15:00
25:00
15:00
00:00


ChillinDuke
35:00
33:00
05:00
25:00
26:00
10:00
20:00
30:00
16:00
00:00


DallasDevil
27:00
33:00
11:00
23:00
30:00
21:00
17:00
29:00
07:00
03:00


David Bunklley
20:00
29:00
16:00
25:00
27:00
18:00
17:00
30:00
18:00
00:00


DukieTiger
28:00
27:00
16:00
20:00
32:00
20:00
23:00
29:00
05:00
00:00


flyingdutchdevil
30:00
32:30
15:00
25:00
25:00
10:00
12:30
27:30
22:30
00:00


Furniture
30:00
30:00
14:00
26:00
25:00
20:00
20:00
25:00
10:00
00:00


GGLC
35:00
30:00
05:00
25:00
25:00
15:00
20:00
30:00
15:00
00:00


gumbomoop
28:00
30:00
11:00
20:00
29:00
27:00
24:00
27:00
04:00
00:00


gurufrisbee
24:00
28:00
20:00
28:00
28:00
16:00
16:00
24:00
12:00
04:00


Ice-9
30:00
30:00
05:00
26:00
27:00
20:00
20:00
27:00
15:00
00:00


jipops
32:00
29:00
12:00
24:00
33:00
13:00
21:00
28:00
06:00
02:00


JNort
23:00
33:00
20:00
34:00
31:00
09:00
15:00
27:00
06:00
02:00


jv001
24:00
30:00
10:00
32:00
28:00
10:00
20:00
28:00
18:00
00:00


kAzE
28:00
31:00
08:00
33:00
32:00
12:00
24:00
30:00
02:00
00:00


Li Duke
25:00
30:00
12:30
25:00
30:00
20:00
15:00
30:00
12:30
00:00


luvdahops
30:00
30:00
12:00
27:00
28:00
20:00
20:00
25:00
08:00
00:00


mattman91
30:00
32:00
07:00
27:00
32:00
18:00
20:00
30:00
04:00
00:00


MChambers
28:00
28:00
19:00
23:00
26:00
24:00
20:00
27:00
05:00
00:00


mr. synellinden
28:00
32:00
12:00
30:00
32:00
16:00
16:00
26:00
08:00
00:00


ncexnyc
30:00
25:00
10:00
25:00
25:00
20:00
25:00
25:00
15:00
00:00


neals384
30:00
30:00
10:00
25:00
25:00
18:00
20:00
30:00
12:00
00:00


NSDukeFan
29:00
31:00
12:00
26:00
28:00
17:00
20:00
28:00
08:00
01:00


phaedrus
27:00
31:00
14:00
28:00
28:00
18:00
20:00
24:00
08:00
02:00


sagegrouse
28:00
28:00
15:00
25:00
28:00
20:00
20:00
28:00
05:00
03:00


timmy c
30:00
32:00
12:00
15:00
32:00
26:00
22:00
29:00
02:00
00:00


Troublemaker
30:00
30:00
10:00
20:00
30:00
20:00
25:00
30:00
03:00
02:00


wherethehellami
28:00
29:00
10:00
25:00
30:00
20:00
20:00
30:00
07:00
01:00


Average
28:21
30:12
11:56
25:51
28:14
17:25
19:15
27:48
10:20
00:40

JNort
03-25-2016, 08:34 PM
Imma go ahead and say DT is gonna be around 30mpg next year. Some may call it crazy but it's one bet I feel safe about