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DavidBenAkiva
04-14-2015, 09:30 AM
It's probably way overdue, but I figured I would start a dedicated thread to Tyus Jones and declaring for the NBA.

The NBA deadline to declare for the draft (http://www.nba.com/news/important-dates/) is April 26th at 11:59 pm Eastern. We will know one way or another in 12 days at the latest. There's been various reports that Tyus is shopping around for an agent. In his most recent remarks, he has stated that he hasn't made up his mind yet (http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/299611981.html).

In recruiting news, Duke has reached out to 2016 top-10 PG Derryck Thornton and have, on more than one occasion, suggested her reclassify to 2015. This is seen by many as a sign that Tyus might declare for the draft. In an interesting twist, Thornton's parents seem to think coming to school a year early is a good idea... for him to redshirt and develop. So maybe they are not mutually exclusive plans after all? Probably, but maybe not. Who know.

What do we think? Is Duke in a better position the longer it takes Tyus to make his decision?

duke blue brewcrew
04-14-2015, 09:42 AM
It's probably way overdue, but I figured I would start a dedicated thread to Tyus Jones and declaring for the NBA.

The NBA deadline to declare for the draft (http://www.nba.com/news/important-dates/) is April 26th at 11:59 pm Eastern. We will know one way or another in 12 days at the latest. There's been various reports that Tyus is shopping around for an agent. In his most recent remarks, he has stated that he hasn't made up his mind yet (http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/299611981.html).

In recruiting news, Duke has reached out to 2016 top-10 PG Derryck Thornton and have, on more than one occasion, suggested her reclassify to 2015. This is seen by many as a sign that Tyus might declare for the draft. In an interesting twist, Thornton's parents seem to think coming to school a year early is a good idea... for him to redshirt and develop. So maybe they are not mutually exclusive plans after all? Probably, but maybe not. Who know.

What do we think? Is Duke in a better position the longer it takes Tyus to make his decision?

The PG position is definitely the massive question to be answered for Duke. Even if Tyus stays, the Blue Devils have no back-up, but without him they are in some trouble IMHO. Selfishly, I would love to see Tyus stay and Thornton reclassify, come to Duke and be ready to play the moment he sets foot on campus. If the stars aligned, and that came together with the possible addition of Ingram (assuming Winslow departure)...I think the sky is the limit for next year with all of the other pieces in place. Without Jones (and hopefully Thornton) the Blue Devils are a rudderless collection of talent.

Duke95
04-14-2015, 09:44 AM
I honestly have no idea. If I guessed, I'd be pulling something out of my a**, and since this is the post-season and I've been doing it all year, the cupboard's getting pretty bare in there. Barely enough room for my head to fit.

Olympic Fan
04-14-2015, 09:49 AM
I don't want to raise any false hope or anything, but the fact is that although Justise Winslow is widely assumed to be gone, he still has not declared for the draft.

It's getting a little funny. I was told that he was going to announce his decision last Friday. When that didn't happen, I was told it would be delayed over the weekend and he would declare Monday.

That didn't happen either. It could happen this afternoon. Maybe tomorrow or the next day ...

Now, I'm not saying he is going to come back -- with projections putting him in the 5-10 range in the draft (and a few higher than that), I can't imagine him returning.

But as long as we're having a vigil for Tyus (who is also likely to go), we might as well have one for Justise until he makes it official.

jimsumner
04-14-2015, 10:15 AM
Duke thinks Kennard can play ACC-level point guard. If Ty does declare for the draft, I think Duke would augment that position with one of Thornton, Murray or a grad-student.

None of whom likely would be as good in 2016 as would be a sophomore Tyus Jones.

So a vigil is warranted, IMO.

flyingdutchdevil
04-14-2015, 10:29 AM
FWIW, I am completely expecting Tyus to be gone. One, because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised that he comes back rather than disappointed that he left. Two, because I really believe he should go. Tyus has done all that a freshman could do: become All-ACC, MVP of the Regional and Final Four, win a natty. It's impressive. And, unfortunately, his draft stock is not dictated by his talent but rather this physical qualities. He isn't tall. He isn't big. He isn't fast. I know posters will argue, "but another year and Tyus can improve his athleticism!" It's not that easy at all. Plus, he isn't going to have the body nor the athleticism of a Derrick Rose or Chris Paul in one year.

KandG
04-14-2015, 10:42 AM
FWIW, I am completely expecting Tyus to be gone. One, because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised that he comes back rather than disappointed that he left. Two, because I really believe he should go. Tyus has done all that a freshman could do: become All-ACC, MVP of the Regional and Final Four, win a natty. It's impressive. And, unfortunately, his draft stock is not dictated by his talent but rather this physical qualities. He isn't tall. He isn't big. He isn't fast. I know posters will argue, "but another year and Tyus can improve his athleticism!" It's not that easy at all. Plus, he isn't going to have the body nor the athleticism of a Derrick Rose or Chris Paul in one year.

Yup, all of this. A best case super-optimistic scenario for him would be improving from say, 22nd in this year's draft to 18 or 17 next year if he has a truly spectacular sophomore year, because the 2016 draft is (supposedly) much weaker. The increase in money from that situation (again, a super best case situation) doesn't mitigate the risk from being exposed/picked apart from playing with (slightly) less talented teammates and having his athleticism examined even more closely after another year of college competition. Not to mention foregoing the money from not declaring a year sooner.

I'd go if I were him. I'd love for Tyus to come back because I love watching him play for Duke, and hey, stranger things have happened -- Jabari ended up declaring, but he truly agonized about his decision until very late even though he was a no-brainer top pick. But undersized point guards with athletic limitations need every advantage they can get going into the draft, and Tyus has just about all of the momentum right now.

miramar
04-14-2015, 10:46 AM
Duke thinks Kennard can play ACC-level point guard. If Ty does declare for the draft, I think Duke would augment that position with one of Thornton, Murray or a grad-student.

Does anyone know whether Duke is looking at any specific grad students (at point guard or any other position) or whether any of them are interested in Duke?

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 10:47 AM
FWIW, I am completely expecting Tyus to be gone. One, because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised that he comes back rather than disappointed that he left. Two, because I really believe he should go. Tyus has done all that a freshman could do: become All-ACC, MVP of the Regional and Final Four, win a natty. It's impressive. And, unfortunately, his draft stock is not dictated by his talent but rather this physical qualities. He isn't tall. He isn't big. He isn't fast. I know posters will argue, "but another year and Tyus can improve his athleticism!" It's not that easy at all. Plus, he isn't going to have the body nor the athleticism of a Derrick Rose or Chris Paul in one year.

The calculations are not quite that simple, FDD.

Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.

Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

COYS
04-14-2015, 11:05 AM
Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

These are all very good points. I'm certainly in the camp that thinks that it's a wise decision to cash in when your stock is hot, so I would be inclined to think it a smart move for Tyus to declare. However, it really is important to consider the situation he will be getting into. While he probably won't dramatically improve his athleticism (although you CAN do things to improve lateral quickness, first step, etc, even if your sprint speed and game-situation leaping ability aren't likely to improve too terribly much), he can definitely get stronger and become a more consistent shooter. He shot really well as a freshman, but he still wasn't the go to scorer. If he can become a dead-eye shooter from range and add that to his otherwise nifty bag of tricks, I think NBA teams will be even more likely to have confidence that he can hack it at the NBA level.

Another way he can improve his stock is through improving his assist numbers. Tyus put up good assist numbers for a freshman, but I think he's capable of even more. While Duke, as a team, did look to fast break when it could, we actually didn't play a particularly remarkable pace this past season. In addition, many of our possessions started with post up attempts for Jahlil. With a contingent of mobile bigs (Jeter, Amile, and Marshall) plus the need for Tyus to create more offense, I could actually see us playing at a faster pace next year while also using Tyus as the center of our half-court offense all game long. It is certainly possible he could put up even more impressive assist totals.

All this is to say that, in my opinion, Tyus has no bad choices, here. Come back and be a star at the college level with the ability to shore up a few areas that might hinder him at the next level, thus increasing his chances of sticking once he gets there (strength, shooting, defense) or go out on the highest note possible and realize his dream of playing in the NBA.

bob blue devil
04-14-2015, 11:07 AM
In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.


I agree that weaker draft next year should be a consideration, but even with that in mind his odds of falling to the second round are much greater next year. Whether it's for the better or worse, people will have a different view of tyus's pro prospects at the end of his hypothetical sophomore year. If it's for the better, great, but if its for the worse, he very easily slides into the second round or worse. I think this dynamic makes it more compelling for a projected mid-late first rounder to go, as you are really rolling the dice on being a first rounder if you come back (see Harrison bros and jmm).

rtnorthrup
04-14-2015, 11:10 AM
The calculations are not quite that simple, FDD.

Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.

Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

Weirdly, I don't know that moving up from mid-20s to mid-teens is necessarily a good thing. You go from getting drafted by a team in contention for playoffs to a mediocre rebuilding team. I know the first contract will be higher, but ultimately, if you land in the right spot in the mid-20s you could have a better career.

Personally, I don't know that Tyus comes back. Seems like the big negative on him from NBA scouts is his size. I don't see him getting any bigger by staying in college next year. I think he has shown, as a basketball player, what he can do. I would think that he would only hurt himself if he came back and had a down year. Unfortunately, it seems the longer you play in college, the more the scouts pick apart your game.

Duke95
04-14-2015, 11:10 AM
I agree that weaker draft next year should be a consideration, but even with that in mind his odds of falling to the second round are much greater next year. Whether it's for the better or worse, people will have a different view of tyus's pro prospects at the end of his hypothetical sophomore year. If it's for the better, great, but if its for the worse, he very easily slides into the second round or worse. I think this dynamic makes it more compelling for a projected mid-late first rounder to go, as you are really rolling the dice on being a first rounder if you come back (see Harrison bros and jmm).

In all fairness, there is a HUGE difference between the Harrisons, JMM, and Tyus Jones.

Next year, he would be the only PG option. He's already established himself as a clutch performer and the MOP at the FF. I think, by most accounts, next year will be a weak draft and he may sneak into the lottery with a huge year. But, there is always a risk, and his stock is at a high right now. Very tough call, IMO.

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 11:16 AM
I agree that weaker draft next year should be a consideration, but even with that in mind his odds of falling to the second round are much greater next year. Whether it's for the better or worse, people will have a different view of tyus's pro prospects at the end of his hypothetical sophomore year. If it's for the better, great, but if its for the worse, he very easily slides into the second round or worse. I think this dynamic makes it more compelling for a projected mid-late first rounder to go, as you are really rolling the dice on being a first rounder if you come back (see Harrison bros and jmm).

It's true that if Tyus returns, he will have get better. I'm very confident that he will, unlike JMM and the Harrisons.

But, yes, that needs to be part of the calculations for Tyus. "Am I a stud that's going to have an All-American type season next year?" I think he would answer yes, and I'd agree with him.

COYS
04-14-2015, 11:25 AM
In all fairness, there is a HUGE difference between the Harrisons, JMM, and Tyus Jones.

Next year, he would be the only PG option. He's already established himself as a clutch performer and the MOP at the FF. I think, by most accounts, next year will be a weak draft and he may sneak into the lottery with a huge year. But, there is always a risk, and his stock is at a high right now. Very tough call, IMO.

Very true. The Harrisons, JMM, Josh McRoberts etc, were all guys who were expected to become stars after standing more or less on the sidelines through much of their freshman seasons (the Harrisons maybe a little less, as they had already underwhelmed a bit). All of those guys were supposed to be lottery or even top 10 picks who started as role players and came back to prove they could be stars. Tyus was never projected to go that high because the questions of his athleticism were already being asked. On the other hand, he proved he could star at the college level and ran the show from day one. He even took over the scoring load in almost all of Duke's biggest games. In many ways, he accomplished far more than those other guys in his freshman season (the Harrisons did come on strong during UK's runner-up finish last year). The biggest risk for him is that he suffers some sort of shooting slump or scoring drought that makes people question whether he can score at the NBA level. Therefore, I think Tyus is risks running into the same fate that befell Kyle Singler, who's senior year shooting slump probably cost him a couple spots as he fell from the late first to the early second.

Basically, I think Tyus can
1) Leave and take advantage of his current draft stock
2) Stay one year longer because he really likes college and, barring injury, probably doesn't stand to raise or lower his stock THAT much
3) Stay because he wants to get stronger, become a better shooter, be the go-to guy and possibly jump significantly higher in next year's much weaker draft. The risk is that he doesn't improve and his stock falls, but this risk is mitigated a bit by (presumably) weaker competition in the 2016 draft.

All good options.

gurufrisbee
04-14-2015, 11:27 AM
Justise hasn't declared yet either - are we vigil-ing him, too?

flyingdutchdevil
04-14-2015, 11:31 AM
The calculations are not quite that simple, FDD.

Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

In the process of moving from mid-20s to mid-teens (projections that have margins of error), he would also be reducing his odds of falling to the 2nd round from ~5% to ~0%.

Finally, he gets one more year of development before going into the NBA. Coach K said the following in a press conference last year (which I'll be paraphrasing). For high draft picks like Jabari, Jahlil, and Justise, the NBA team that selects them will have made a large investment in them and thus have the incentive to develop them to the fullest and see it through the entire rookie contract. For later draft picks, they have to have the ability to hit the ground running as rookies because the investment in them isn't as large. And first-round NBA contracts these days are only guaranteed for two years.

This year's draft wasn't supposed to be that great, either. With all the talent that left last year, this year was supposed to be about "rebuilding". But it didn't pan out that way. Towns, Winslow, and Russell exploded. Dekker and Kaminsky improved more than most thought. Kentucky had a super mass exodus (not sure that many people expected 7 to leave).

The truth is, drafts are very difficult to predict, even with one year in advance. Sure, the McAA's didn't look great, but a lot can happen in a year. And the draft is based on potential, not performance. So, an athletic dude like Myles Turner who had a mediocre year would get draft before Tyus every time because of his potential, not his performance.

And you're right that NBA teams prioritize higher draft picks, but the NBA also offers a ton of services that college can't: better practice facilities, better physical trainers, more time for basketball, better analytics, better nutritionists. I am under the impression that players can develop better in the NBA than in college. The only upside to college, in my opinion, is the coaching and exposure.

bob blue devil
04-14-2015, 11:32 AM
i'll add one comment in response to the general sentiment i'm getting from the posts - i think (just my opinion) that people have too much confidence in their ability to predict tyus's draft stock one year forward. there are so many variables/uncertainties. the biggest to start is a nearly entirely different set of teammates - yes, i think he would succeed, but the range of outcomes is quite large (particularly relative to the narrow difference between a mid-late first rounder and an early second rounder).

Duke95
04-14-2015, 11:39 AM
i'll add one comment in response to the general sentiment i'm getting from the posts - i think (just my opinion) that people have too much confidence in their ability to predict tyus's draft stock one year forward. there are so many variables/uncertainties. the biggest to start is a nearly entirely different set of teammates - yes, i think he would succeed, but the range of outcomes is quite large (particularly relative to the narrow difference between a mid-late first rounder and an early second rounder).

I case I gave off any other impression, my prediction interval for Tyus' draft position is just slightly more narrow than the Mississippi river at its widest point. But as I indicated, I have no peer when it comes to talking out of my a**.

One thing I will say is that TJ should take all the time he needs to make the best decision for him. He should not feel rushed even in the slightest. He needs to gather as much information as possible to make the best decision for his future. If he decides to go or stay on the last day, that's fine. He should do what's best for him. He's already given Duke fans some incredible memories, and even if he had not, I'd say the same thing.

JasonEvans
04-14-2015, 12:18 PM
Tyus can go earlier in a weaker 2016 NBA Draft, moving from mid-20s to mid-teens. Check out DraftExpress's 2016 mock to get a sense of the weakness of that draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016

What Tyus should be looking at is where would he go this year, in what is widely considered a fairly loaded draft which includes 4 PG prospects considered stronger than or similar to Tyus in D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, Cameron Payne, and Jerian Grant; versus where would he go next year in what will be a weaker draft and a draft in which there are not expected to be many good PGs. Melo Trimlbe is the only PG projected to be a top 15 pick in the 2016 draft and the top high school PG is Kentucky's Isaiah Taylor who is barely a top 15 recruit, let alone a one-and-done lottery prospect. In other words, not only is 2016 going to be weak overall, but it is expected to be especially weak for PGs.

I have been looking a great deal at draft projections for 2016 and think that if Tyus came back and had a strong soph campaign -- averaged better than 15 ppg with an efficient offensive season -- then he would be looking at being a top 10 pick next year.

Being selected #10 next year would mean a contract worth about $2.2 million per year. The #20 pick in this year's draft will make about $1.2 million. While it is true that Tyus would become a free agent a year faster if he came out this year versus next year, the free agent dollars are so widely scattered and so dependent upon your performance once you reach the NBA that I find it impossible to project how that impacts a career. The race to free agency is not a factor to me because it is darn near impossible to project how that will impact career earnings of any college player. Xavier Henry rushed to the NBA in 2010 after one year at Kansas. He was drafted #12 and made $6+ mil over his first three years but has barely played since then and is bouncing around the fringe of the NBA at this point earning the NBA minimum. That same year, in 2010, Klay Thompson decide to come back for one more year of college hoops though eh was projected as a mid-first rounder. He came out the next year in 2011 and was picked #11, earning $6+ mil over his rookie deal. But the new deal he just signed will make him more than $70 mil over the next 4 seasons. Projecting free agent contracts is so widely varied, it just should not be part of the calculus for a draft decision.

So, I believe that because of the relative weakness of the 2016 draft and its lack of quality PGs, Tyus should come back. Of course, coming back does run the risk he has a disappointing season where he shoots a lot more but is much less efficient and looks a bit lost without his stud teammates. In many cases, this would be a very realistic concern, but I think Tyus' performance in the national title game when Jah and Justise were both in major foul trouble and not a part of the offense, would seem to mitigate those concerns. Basically, the team that Duke used to beat Wisconsin was largely Tyus and Grayson creating on offensive while Mike and Amile created havoc on D. That's the core of the team Duke will have next year. I think the odds that Tyus comes back and has a disappointing season are pretty darn low.


Weirdly, I don't know that moving up from mid-20s to mid-teens is necessarily a good thing. You go from getting drafted by a team in contention for playoffs to a mediocre rebuilding team. I know the first contract will be higher, but ultimately, if you land in the right spot in the mid-20s you could have a better career.

I disagree with this. Being drafted later in the first round almost certainly means you will find yourself on a team that is pretty well set at PG. You just don't get to be a playoff team without a good PG in the current NBA. So, being taken in the 20s probably means Tyus is looking at very limited minutes for a contender that cannot waste time on a kid learning the game. Being taken in the lower teens means the exact opposite. There is likely to be more playing time opportunity.

So, to sum up, I believe that though there is a small risk of poor play hampering his draft stock if Tyus comes back, I think there is some really nice upside available to him if he returns to school.

-Jason "I'm sure Tyus is reading this thread.... right? HA!" Evans

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 12:38 PM
Melo Trimlbe is the only PG projected to be a top 15 pick in the 2016 draft and the top high school PG is Kentucky's Isaiah Taylor who is barely a top 15 recruit, let alone a one-and-done lottery prospect. In other words, not only is 2016 going to be weak overall, but it is expected to be especially weak for PGs.


Basically, the team that Duke used to beat Wisconsin was largely Tyus and Grayson creating on offensive while Mike and Amile created havoc on D. That's the core of the team Duke will have next year. I think the odds that Tyus comes back and has a disappointing season are pretty darn low.

Obviously you meant Briscoe and Matt. Very nice take, Jason. I agree largely with it.

Duke95
04-14-2015, 12:39 PM
I'm confused as to why Briscoe picked Kentucky, given that Ullis will be the expected starter from Day 1. Are they planning on doing that platoon thing again?

JasonEvans
04-14-2015, 12:46 PM
Obviously you meant Briscoe and Matt. Very nice take, Jason. I agree largely with it.

My carefully crafted and researched analysis was foiled by a couple obvious brain farts... sigh.

Thanks... and it is worth noting that despite my analysis, I think Tyus will declare for the draft.

-Jason "it is sorta interesting that he and Justise are taking a little while longer to decide. There aren't many other likely 2015 first rounders who have not decided yet" Evans

roywhite
04-14-2015, 12:49 PM
One of the definitions of maturity is the ability to make decisions that involve delayed gratification.

My take is that Tyus has amply demonstrated his on-court maturity and decision making, and will seriously consider the option of remaining at Duke and pushing back a big payday. As Duke fans and college basketball fans, we'd love to see him return, but I know he'll make a thoughtful choice.

SCMatt33
04-14-2015, 12:50 PM
I'm confused as to why Briscoe picked Kentucky, given that Ullis will be the expected starter from Day 1. Are they planning on doing that platoon thing again?

I doubt it, but Kentucky has played with two point guards before, playing one off the ball. They're probably selling him on he and Ulis pairing up like Wall and Bledsoe did. Both were natural PG's but Bledsoe slid off the ball most of the time when they were together.

subzero02
04-14-2015, 12:55 PM
Yup, all of this. A best case super-optimistic scenario for him would be improving from say, 22nd in this year's draft to 18 or 17 next year if he has a truly spectacular sophomore year, because the 2016 draft is (supposedly) much weaker. The increase in money from that situation (again, a super best case situation) doesn't mitigate the risk from being exposed/picked apart from playing with (slightly) less talented teammates and having his athleticism examined even more closely after another year of college competition. Not to mention foregoing the money from not declaring a year sooner.

I'd go if I were him. I'd love for Tyus to come back because I love watching him play for Duke, and hey, stranger things have happened -- Jabari ended up declaring, but he truly agonized about his decision until very late even though he was a no-brainer top pick. But undersized point guards with athletic limitations need every advantage they can get going into the draft, and Tyus has just about all of the momentum right now.

I think he could improve his draft potential by more than 5 positions but who knows what will happen over the next year.

MCFinARL
04-14-2015, 01:01 PM
One of the definitions of maturity is the ability to make decisions that involve delayed gratification.

My take is that Tyus has amply demonstrated his on-court maturity and decision making, and will seriously consider the option of remaining at Duke and pushing back a big payday. As Duke fans and college basketball fans, we'd love to see him return, but I know he'll make a thoughtful choice.

I agree. Whatever Tyus decides is very likely to be the "right" choice, because he has access to excellent advice and the judgment to sift through the options carefully.

And that in itself demonstrates that, should he choose to go, Tyus is ready for the NBA in one important way that people don't always consider--maturity. As Calipari said he told his players this year (don't usually like to quote him, but he is right on this point), the NBA is not a child's league but a man's. The shift from the relatively coddled existence of a star college player to the grind, on the one hand, and temptations, on the other, of the NBA can be a big shock, and as Coach K noted (mentioned somewhere up thread, I believe), players who are late first round picks may get less support and less patience from their teams--they need to be self-motivated, resilient, and focused. Tyus appears to be all of these things, and if he chooses to go now, he will likely be able to handle it.

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 01:20 PM
Thanks... and it is worth noting that despite my analysis, I think Tyus will declare for the draft.

Same. And I would just like to add that making the case for Tyus to stay is just something fans do in the immediate aftermath of a college basketball season.

Tyus (and family) knows what's best for himself.

Obviously I support his decision 100% either way.

gumbomoop
04-14-2015, 01:20 PM
Duke thinks Kennard can play ACC-level point guard.

That an untrustworthy poster or two (s/he/they shall remain nameless) might previously have expressed such a view is somewhat less meaningful than that a trustworthy insider reports this. Skeptics (also nameless) may fairly point out that it isn't yet a fact that Luke is actually capable of playing some PG, but only that Krzyzewski [unless it's all Capel, or Scheyer.....] thinks Luke can play ACC-level PG. It's only sensible to be skeptical of a coaching staff with so little personal experience of the attributes of a solid PG.

Still, unless we soon learn that Tyus has decided to return, or some other talented young PG joins up, it's good to know that K's got a backup Plan K.

Kedsy
04-14-2015, 01:29 PM
That an untrustworthy poster or two (s/he/they shall remain nameless) might previously have expressed such a view is somewhat less meaningful than that a trustworthy insider reports this. Skeptics (also nameless) may fairly point out that it isn't yet a fact that Luke is actually capable of playing some PG, but only that Krzyzewski [unless it's all Capel, or Scheyer.....] thinks Luke can play ACC-level PG. It's only sensible to be skeptical of a coaching staff with so little personal experience of the attributes of a solid PG.

Still, unless we soon learn that Tyus has decided to return, or some other talented young PG joins up, it's good to know that K's got a backup Plan K.

As one of the unnamed skeptics, I'll go on record as saying I'm still a little skeptical. That said, I expressed my skepticism primarily when Rasheed was still the obvious (at least to my mind) last-ditch option. At this point, if Tyus leaves and we don't pick up another PG, that would leave us with three wings/combo guards (Luke/Grayson/Matt) in our backcourt. By necessity, one of them will have to bring the ball upcourt and initiate the offense, and of the three it's quite possible Luke would be the best choice. But I'm still hopeful it won't come to that.

gumbomoop
04-14-2015, 01:47 PM
As one of the unnamed skeptics, I'll go on record as saying I'm still a little skeptical. That said, I expressed my skepticism primarily when Rasheed was still the obvious (at least to my mind) last-ditch option. At this point, if Tyus leaves and we don't pick up another PG, that would leave us with three wings/combo guards (Luke/Grayson/Matt) in our backcourt. By necessity, one of them will have to bring the ball upcourt and initiate the offense, and of the three it's quite possible Luke would be the best choice. But I'm still hopeful it won't come to that.

As am I. The very best hope is that Tyus returns, happy in his decision. Next best is the arrival of one of the excellent PGs now being recruited to replace a departed Tyus, also happy in his decision to begin his NBA quest now.

Then we're at a couple of backup plans; call them G for grad-transfer and K for Kennard. If it's one of these 2, I prefer Plan K, as I am skeptical of how much ACC-quality PG talent is out there. Admittedly, however, if Luke (and some Grayson) is the PG, we do still need another player. Ingram is a vigil, too, on other threads.

BD80
04-14-2015, 02:07 PM
... Whether it's for the better or worse, people will have a different view of tyus's pro prospects at the end of his hypothetical sophomore year. If it's for the better, great, but if its for the worse, he very easily slides into the second round or worse. I think this dynamic makes it more compelling for a projected mid-late first rounder to go, as you are really rolling the dice on being a first rounder if you come back (see Harrison bros and jmm).

This could be the thinking behind the potential Thornton reclassify and redshirt scenario. The goal is to have the best possible year one showcase and then go to the league before you are compared to yourself.


... But as I indicated, I have no peer when it comes to talking out of my a**. ...

Hi. Apparently we've never met.


What Tyus should be looking at is where would he go this year, in what is widely considered a fairly loaded draft which includes 4 PG prospects considered stronger than or similar to Tyus in D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, Cameron Payne, and Jerian Grant; versus where would he go next year in what will be a weaker draft and a draft in which there are not expected to be many good PGs. Melo Trimlbe is the only PG projected to be a top 15 pick in the 2016 draft and the top high school PG is Kentucky's Isaiah Taylor who is barely a top 15 recruit, let alone a one-and-done lottery prospect. In other words, not only is 2016 going to be weak overall, but it is expected to be especially weak for PGs.

I have been looking a great deal at draft projections for 2016 and think that if Tyus came back and had a strong soph campaign -- averaged better than 15 ppg with an efficient offensive season -- then he would be looking at being a top 10 pick next year.

Being selected #10 next year would mean a contract worth about $2.2 million per year. The #20 pick in this year's draft will make about $1.2 million. While it is true that Tyus would become a free agent a year faster if he came out this year versus next year, the free agent dollars are so widely scattered and so dependent upon your performance once you reach the NBA that I find it impossible to project how that impacts a career. The race to free agency is not a factor to me because it is darn near impossible to project how that will impact career earnings of any college player. Xavier Henry rushed to the NBA in 2010 after one year at Kansas. He was drafted #12 and made $6+ mil over his first three years but has barely played since then and is bouncing around the fringe of the NBA at this point earning the NBA minimum. That same year, in 2010, Klay Thompson decide to come back for one more year of college hoops though eh was projected as a mid-first rounder. He came out the next year in 2011 and was picked #11, earning $6+ mil over his rookie deal. But the new deal he just signed will make him more than $70 mil over the next 4 seasons. Projecting free agent contracts is so widely varied, it just should not be part of the calculus for a draft decision.

So, I believe that because of the relative weakness of the 2016 draft and its lack of quality PGs, Tyus should come back. Of course, coming back does run the risk he has a disappointing season where he shoots a lot more but is much less efficient and looks a bit lost without his stud teammates. In many cases, this would be a very realistic concern, but I think Tyus' performance in the national title game when Jah and Justise were both in major foul trouble and not a part of the offense, would seem to mitigate those concerns. Basically, the team that Duke used to beat Wisconsin was largely Tyus and Grayson creating on offensive while Mike and Amile created havoc on D. That's the core of the team Duke will have next year. I think the odds that Tyus comes back and has a disappointing season are pretty darn low.



I disagree with this. Being drafted later in the first round almost certainly means you will find yourself on a team that is pretty well set at PG. You just don't get to be a playoff team without a good PG in the current NBA. So, being taken in the 20s probably means Tyus is looking at very limited minutes for a contender that cannot waste time on a kid learning the game. Being taken in the lower teens means the exact opposite. There is likely to be more playing time opportunity.

So, to sum up, I believe that though there is a small risk of poor play hampering his draft stock if Tyus comes back, I think there is some really nice upside available to him if he returns to school.

-Jason "I'm sure Tyus is reading this thread.... right? HA!" Evans

Preach it brother! Preach it LOUD!


Another factor that will unfortunately weigh on the scales is the peer standing. It says something when you can go pro after just one year. And to watch two friends do it as well as several other guys you tore up in AAU ball (and rose above on Team USA) makes it tougher to admit it might be better to wait another year. To many of us, another year is but a drop in the ocean, to an 18 y/o, that's a long time.

CDu
04-14-2015, 05:06 PM
As one of the unnamed skeptics, I'll go on record as saying I'm still a little skeptical. That said, I expressed my skepticism primarily when Rasheed was still the obvious (at least to my mind) last-ditch option. At this point, if Tyus leaves and we don't pick up another PG, that would leave us with three wings/combo guards (Luke/Grayson/Matt) in our backcourt. By necessity, one of them will have to bring the ball upcourt and initiate the offense, and of the three it's quite possible Luke would be the best choice. But I'm still hopeful it won't come to that.


As am I. The very best hope is that Tyus returns, happy in his decision. Next best is the arrival of one of the excellent PGs now being recruited to replace a departed Tyus, also happy in his decision to begin his NBA quest now.

Then we're at a couple of backup plans; call them G for grad-transfer and K for Kennard. If it's one of these 2, I prefer Plan K, as I am skeptical of how much ACC-quality PG talent is out there. Admittedly, however, if Luke (and some Grayson) is the PG, we do still need another player. Ingram is a vigil, too, on other threads.

As another of the unnamed skeptics (and mostly for the same reasons, I mostly agree. I would certainly prefer year 2 of Tyus Jones, then either Thornton or the grad transfer Dylan Ennis. After that, then probably I would have to take Kennard at PG with someone (or two) added for wing depth. And that would be one of our dire situations, in my opinion.

Richard Berg
04-14-2015, 05:49 PM
I disagree with this. Being drafted later in the first round almost certainly means you will find yourself on a team that is pretty well set at PG. You just don't get to be a playoff team without a good PG in the current NBA. So, being taken in the 20s probably means Tyus is looking at very limited minutes for a contender that cannot waste time on a kid learning the game. Being taken in the lower teens means the exact opposite. There is likely to be more playing time opportunity.
Worst case, he ends up competing with a franchise stud (CP3, Irving, Lilliard, Wall) every day in practice, which ain't such a bad fate. More minutes on a mediocre team may be preferable, I agree, but I don't think it's a surefire consequence of getting picked late, as you imply:

(1) A fair number of teams in the 20s have a great older PG, i.e. will be incentivized to develop replacements in the next couple years: Rondo, Parker, Jason Terry, Deron Williams*.

(2) Teams that are already stacked at PG would probably trade him to teams in category #1 anyway. Remember, these are good teams -- they didn't get that way by squandering talent, as might happen nearer the top of the draft.

*Brooklyn will pick in Atlanta's slot

Newton_14
04-14-2015, 06:57 PM
First, I have believed since the final home game that all 3 Freshmen were going to declare and I still have not changed my mind on that. That said, Durham honored the team today with a celebration downtown. Okafor and Winslow were not with the team but Tyus was.

Might mean nothing, but thought I would share.

Source is the Adam Gold Show on 99.9 The Fan show today.

fuse
04-14-2015, 07:41 PM
With all my heart, I would like Tyus to stay.

That said, I don't follow the logic of why Tyus would stay.
I get the argument of where he may fall relative to other PG prospects as a factor.

The counterbalance is how can Tyus do better next year?
MOP as a freshman?

Even if he improves his individual stats, there will be no Justise or Okafor next year.
The risk for Tyus is reputational.
I'm not sure what he'd have to do to up his draft stock in 2016, or if his team mates will provide the right showcase opportunities.

I don't expect Tyus to return, and hope that he makes the decision he feels is best for him.

bob blue devil
04-14-2015, 07:48 PM
That an untrustworthy poster or two (s/he/they shall remain nameless) might previously have expressed such a view is somewhat less meaningful than that a trustworthy insider reports this. Skeptics (also nameless) may fairly point out that it isn't yet a fact that Luke is actually capable of playing some PG, but only that Krzyzewski [unless it's all Capel, or Scheyer.....] thinks Luke can play ACC-level PG. It's only sensible to be skeptical of a coaching staff with so little personal experience of the attributes of a solid PG.

ACC-level like virginia tech or ACC-level like, ya know, DUKE UNIVERSITY (the real point guard U)? i'm just having fun, i know you mean DUKE UNIVERSITY (the real point guard U). we may find out.

-jk
04-14-2015, 08:08 PM
...

That said, I don't follow the logic of why Tyus would stay.
I get the argument of where he may fall relative to other PG prospects as a factor.
...

The argument is that K teaches intangibles. Cf LeBron: He didn't win it all until Shane was a teammate. Most of Duke's pro's last a really long time, longer than their physical attributes would suggest. It's not their natural gifts - it's learning the game, deep down in the soul. And that takes work. And hunger. It's also why LeBron considers K a mentor. For some things you need a coach, not just practice time.

K is a coach; he teaches the game...

-jk

DukeandMdFan
04-14-2015, 08:17 PM
With all my heart, I would like Tyus to stay.

That said, I don't follow the logic of why Tyus would stay.
I get the argument of where he may fall relative to other PG prospects as a factor.

The counterbalance is how can Tyus do better next year?
MOP as a freshman?

Even if he improves his individual stats, there will be no Justise or Okafor next year.
The risk for Tyus is reputational.
I'm not sure what he'd have to do to up his draft stock in 2016, or if his team mates will provide the right showcase opportunities.

I don't expect Tyus to return, and hope that he makes the decision he feels is best for him.

I agree that now is the right time for him to go. He probably can't do too much more to impress the scouts and could expose weaknesses and risk injury. IMO, the only reason not to go pro is if Coach K tells him that he isn't ready yet and that by waiting another year or more, he would greatly increase his chance of a long career in the NBA. There aren't many players his size in the NBA that stay in the league more than a few years. Other than Avery, I don't recall any other players leaving early against Coach K's advice.

bob blue devil
04-14-2015, 08:26 PM
The argument is that K teaches intangibles. Cf LeBron: He didn't win it all until Shane was a teammate. Most of Duke's pro's last a really long time, longer than their physical attributes would suggest. It's not their natural gifts - it's learning the game, deep down in the soul. And that takes work. And hunger. It's also why LeBron considers K a mentor. For some things you need a coach, not just practice time.

K is a coach; he teaches the game...

-jk

<begin poking fun> until now i had no idea that lebron should be thanking shane battier (and, by the transitive property of basketball success, K) for his championships. </end poking fun>

forget that coach K teaches the game, he teaches life! <not a joke, it's true!>

my very high level 2 cents on the stay vs. go debate is this - if you are likely to get drafted in the first round, it almost definitely does not make financial sense to stay (assuming your first $1mm is worth much much more than your second, which is true for almost everyone). of course, life is much more than money, so going could easily be the wrong decision - maybe basketball success is your driver. everyone is entitled to make their own decisions and they suffer the consequences more than anyone, so who are we to criticize either way?

FerryFor50
04-14-2015, 08:37 PM
According to Draft Express, Tyus is projected to go to Dallas at #21.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/

That is ahead of Cameron Payne, Caris LeVert and RJ Hunter as far as guards are concerned.

However, that is also ahead of pre-draft combines/workouts. If one of those guys projected below Tyus shows well, or someone off the radar, you could see Tyus dropping.

I can't see Tyus wowing anyone at the pre-draft workouts, so I think his stock is going to stay right around where it is.

As for going to Dallas, they have the current PGs on their roster:

Rajon Rondo
Raymond Felton (hold your laughter)
JJ Berea
Devin Harris
Monta Ellis (who is more of a 2 but can play PG)

Rondo might be gone after this season - he's expensive and has clashed with Rick Carlisle. And the Lakers REALLY want to make a FA splash after missing out the past few years.

Felton is Felton.

Ellis is the only player on that list that would be impossible to beat out for minutes, but Ellis plays a lot of off guard.

Bottom line is, Mavs are a playoff team that will likely be in the market for a PG next season.

Question remains: is 21 appealing enough to leave when you could potentially be a top 15 pick next season?

Tyus could stick around and improve his strength and jumper, as well as his defense. He could also show how he could lead without his senior buddy Quinn Cook and his best friends in the freshmen class. But is that enough to stay?

Newton_14
04-14-2015, 08:47 PM
<begin poking fun> until now i had no idea that lebron should be thanking shane battier (and, by the transitive property of basketball success, K) for his championships. </end poking fun>

forget that coach K teaches the game, he teaches life! <not a joke, it's true!>

my very high level 2 cents on the stay vs. go debate is this - if you are likely to get drafted in the first round, it almost definitely does not make financial sense to stay (assuming your first $1mm is worth much much more than your second, which is true for almost everyone). of course, life is much more than money, so going could easily be the wrong decision - maybe basketball success is your driver. everyone is entitled to make their own decisions and they suffer the consequences more than anyone, so who are we to criticize either way?

I am not sure the bold is true any longer. It used to be that way, but with how the salaries and contracts are structured these days, the case for "must go" is much weaker. If you are not a lottery pick, or at least Top 15 or so (sorry, off the top of my head I can't remember which pick is the last lottery pick), then you are taking a risk. Jason Evans laid it out pretty well upstream I think. You are only guaranteed for two years, and though a salary of $1.2 mil sounds nice, after taxes, agent fees, etc, you are certainly not set for life or anything, especially if the money is not properly invested. There are kids that would invest that money wisely for sure, but many others would find themselves out of the league in less than 4 years and very little money left. It happens far more often than most want us to believe.

Ask Kendall Marshall and Tyler Ennis how giving up another year or two of college looks to them now. Marshall got incredibly fortunate that the Lakers were so short on players they were almost grabbing kids off the street, otherwise he would still be drowning in the D League or overseas.

I know he is likely to go, but unlike Jahlil and Justise, Tyus has a very hard decision to make. He will be taking a risk if he goes. I still say he would go much higher next year than he would this year, but it's not my decision to make, it's his and I fully support whichever choice he makes and will pull like crazy for him to make it if he goes now.

Sluggo
04-14-2015, 09:00 PM
I find this page interesting: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-salaries/nba-rookie-salary-scale-by-draft-year/ in that it shows the money paid by draft position. There is quite a difference between low 20s and top 10. Jahlil and Justise could not improve their draft position significantly and the risk of it going down was increased by their already high projection. I believe Tyus being projected in the low 20s gives him a lot of room to rise. I would also think that those in the know would look at the projected draft for 2016 to see where he might fit in when making a decision. I am guessing that Tyus' chances of staying for 1 more year are 60% and it would be awesome having him back.

flyingdutchdevil
04-14-2015, 09:22 PM
DBR has come a long way. Irving, Rivers, and Jabari all had vigils (or something similar). Okafor and Winslow didn't, for the sole reason that we all knew they were gone. The mental acceptance of Coach K's new OAD philosophy has been realized. The Tyus vigil is the exact vigil that I expected. Lemme try and sum up some collective thoughts:

1) Tyus is a stud. He is talented. He was arguably the most - if not of the most - valuable players for us down the stretch. His basketball ability is fantastic. But he's physically not ready for the NBA.

2) Duke doesn't have a PG next year. The idea of Luke or Grayson playing PG scares a lot of posters. And it probably should as neither has exhibited any real PG skills, especially at the college level.

3) Pro "Tyus come back" posters argue that Tyus could gain a lot from coming back, including physical maturity. Also, he shouldn't chase $$$ as the draft next year will be weaker. Pro "Tyus should go" argue that he can't gain much more NBA potential and that the NBA is a better training ground.

Well, let me tell you a few things about my thought process:

a) I'm still in ecstasy. I am thinking a little about next year (not much, thought), and I understand the difficulty in winning back-to-backs when you're two most NBA-talented players are gone. I want us to win, but I'm realistic; it'll be really really difficult, with or without Tyus.

b) I want the Irvings, Okafors, Hendersons, and McBobs to come back, but I understand the allure of the NBA: best basketball in the world (please don't try to argue with this point, it's just true), $$$, more recognition potential, more time for basketball and hence development, and realizing your dream. That last point is really important. Most artists would rather have their paintings at MOMA or the Louvre than hanging on the wall of their best friends' living rooms.

c) I want Tyus to stay for the success of Duke next year, but I understand that his best friend won't be around next year, he's dealing with new players and hence a new system, and the risk of staying for another year can potentially lead to a lower draft stock (could also lead to a higher draft stock). If the NBA is indeed my goal (and it probably is Tyus's), I'd go now given that I am a guaranteed 1st round pick.

d) Duke will be alright, elite PG or no elite PG. We probably won't win without an elite PG, but we just won 2015. I'm too content to care about 2016. Until October ;)

Duke95
04-14-2015, 09:25 PM
According to Draft Express, Tyus is projected to go to Dallas at #21.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/

That is ahead of Cameron Payne, Caris LeVert and RJ Hunter as far as guards are concerned.

However, that is also ahead of pre-draft combines/workouts. If one of those guys projected below Tyus shows well, or someone off the radar, you could see Tyus dropping.

I can't see Tyus wowing anyone at the pre-draft workouts, so I think his stock is going to stay right around where it is.

As for going to Dallas, they have the current PGs on their roster:

Rajon Rondo
Raymond Felton (hold your laughter)
JJ Berea
Devin Harris
Monta Ellis (who is more of a 2 but can play PG)

Rondo might be gone after this season - he's expensive and has clashed with Rick Carlisle. And the Lakers REALLY want to make a FA splash after missing out the past few years.

Felton is Felton.

Ellis is the only player on that list that would be impossible to beat out for minutes, but Ellis plays a lot of off guard.

Bottom line is, Mavs are a playoff team that will likely be in the market for a PG next season.

Question remains: is 21 appealing enough to leave when you could potentially be a top 15 pick next season?

Tyus could stick around and improve his strength and jumper, as well as his defense. He could also show how he could lead without his senior buddy Quinn Cook and his best friends in the freshmen class. But is that enough to stay?

Let's look at the math. If Tyus is chosen 21st this year, he makes approximately $3.66M over the next 3 years.
If he waits, he makes 0 next year, but, if he is chosen 15th next year, he makes $3.4M in 2 years!

So, basically, the cost is 260k to stay at Duke, but the gain will be realized in higher salary in each following year, not to mention what he gains by another year with K.

*Numbers based on the link Sluggo just posted.

roywhite
04-14-2015, 09:32 PM
From the goduke.com article on Justise's decision (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=210022058&DB_OEM_ID=4200), I thought the following comment from Coach K was interesting relative to Tyus:


"From everything we have found out, Justise is projected to be a high lottery pick and we believe that to be true. This is a great time to take advantage of this opportunity."

"High lottery pick" does not seem to be likely for Tyus; perhaps late teens to mid-20s of the first round, according to various projections. I don't doubt that Coach K will support the decision of Tyus and his family, but I wonder if he might be presenting the case for staying and advancing his draft status for the following year?

SilkyJ
04-14-2015, 09:41 PM
In all fairness, there is a HUGE difference between the Harrisons, JMM, and Tyus Jones.


Very true. The Harrisons, JMM, Josh McRoberts etc, were all guys who were expected to become stars after standing more or less on the sidelines through much of their freshman seasons (the Harrisons maybe a little less, as they had already underwhelmed a bit). All of those guys were supposed to be lottery or even top 10 picks who started as role players and came back to prove they could be stars.

The Harrisons do not fit the description of being on the sidelines as freshman at all . They played 30mpg and were both double digit scorers. Nor would I say their motivation in coming back was to be stars. Their mpg and scoring all went down this year as Calipari got them to buy into his relatively flat system (which, I have to admit, worked pretty well...)

I think Tyus' situation is similar in that he played big minutes on a major team and played well, but there was still clearly room for growth. Of course the big difference is that he would be more featured in his soph year than the Harrisons were, but I think their decisions frameworks are still somewhat comparable. And hey, sometimes its not always about PT or where exactly in the draft they go. Remember when Kyle came back? K said, "he's gonna be a pro. whether he goes now or later, he'll be a pro. And he wants to come back b/c he loves college." Maybe the Harrisons last year just wanted to be BMOCs for one more year? Maybe Tyus will too, who knows exactly what these kids are thinking about. Its not always about draft stock and minutes etc etc (though it often is)


That an untrustworthy poster or two (s/he/they shall remain nameless) might previously have expressed such a view is somewhat less meaningful than that a trustworthy insider reports this. Skeptics (also nameless) may fairly point out that it isn't yet a fact that Luke is actually capable of playing some PG, but only that Krzyzewski [unless it's all Capel, or Scheyer.....] thinks Luke can play ACC-level PG. It's only sensible to be skeptical of a coaching staff with so little personal experience of the attributes of a solid PG.

Still, unless we soon learn that Tyus has decided to return, or some other talented young PG joins up, it's good to know that K's got a backup Plan K.

I don't doubt that the staff believes he can play some there--from what we've read/seen/heard he has play creating abilities--but we've heard similar commentary in prior years with mixed results. K made similar comments about Sheed coming in and throughout his years in Durham, and Sheed proved to be a relatively competent backup PG who could occasionally spell our starters and initiate the offense. He was also one of our best penetrators (at times) and was able to score and dish some off it. That said, if he had been on the team, at best I think he would have been a distant plan B to either Tyus or DThornton, with Kennard a distant plan C to that.

K also made similar comments about Seth going into his RS Jr year, and that ended up with Austin Rivers and Thornton having to play way more PG than they should (Quinn wasn't ready to take over full time yet, partially b/c of his knee). Of course, we've seen John switch and play effectively as a PG, though he was a senior, captain, and our best player, and I guess even Nolan made the switch, tho he was already half-PG, a national champ, and, again, a senior. Can Kennard be a truly effective ACC PG as a freshman? Perhaps, but I'm skeptical that with him we'll be much better than a top 10-15 team, and that may be on the high-end. Not to mention, I think K once told us Matt Christensen had developed a 3 point shot while on his mission, so I'm always skeptical of what K says in the offseason (although that's usually during summer workouts).

PG has long been the most important position on the floor for all Duke teams, and its not as interchangeable as the other positions. Much like I believe that every great Duke team requires a strong senior leader that is amongst our best players, I believe a top flight PG is also necessary for us to achieve at the highest level.

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 09:51 PM
Let's look at the math. If Tyus is chosen 21st this year, he makes approximately $3.66M over the next 3 years.
If he waits, he makes 0 next year, but, if he is chosen 15th next year, he makes $3.4M in 2 years!

So, basically, the cost is 260k to stay at Duke, but the gain will be realized in higher salary in each following year, not to mention what he gains by another year with K.

Thanks for doing the arithmetic. That helps.

It provides the perspective that he's probably not going to be losing much, if any, money if he stays. And if he can actually become the #10 pick, as Jason Evans suggests, he makes out like a bandit by staying. He'd be making a bet on himself by staying, and Tyus Jones tends to come through in the clutch.

Newton_14
04-14-2015, 10:09 PM
Let's look at the math. If Tyus is chosen 21st this year, he makes approximately $3.66M over the next 3 years.
If he waits, he makes 0 next year, but, if he is chosen 15th next year, he makes $3.4M in 2 years!

So, basically, the cost is 260k to stay at Duke, but the gain will be realized in higher salary in each following year, not to mention what he gains by another year with K.

*Numbers based on the link Sluggo just posted.

The 3rd year is not guaranteed though. Only the first two. Any draftee at that spot could be let go after the second year.

bob blue devil
04-14-2015, 10:22 PM
I am not sure the bold is true any longer. It used to be that way, but with how the salaries and contracts are structured these days, the case for "must go" is much weaker. If you are not a lottery pick, or at least Top 15 or so (sorry, off the top of my head I can't remember which pick is the last lottery pick), then you are taking a risk. Jason Evans laid it out pretty well upstream I think. You are only guaranteed for two years, and though a salary of $1.2 mil sounds nice, after taxes, agent fees, etc, you are certainly not set for life or anything, especially if the money is not properly invested. There are kids that would invest that money wisely for sure, but many others would find themselves out of the league in less than 4 years and very little money left. It happens far more often than most want us to believe.

Ask Kendall Marshall and Tyler Ennis how giving up another year or two of college looks to them now. Marshall got incredibly fortunate that the Lakers were so short on players they were almost grabbing kids off the street, otherwise he would still be drowning in the D League or overseas.

I know he is likely to go, but unlike Jahlil and Justise, Tyus has a very hard decision to make. He will be taking a risk if he goes. I still say he would go much higher next year than he would this year, but it's not my decision to make, it's his and I fully support whichever choice he makes and will pull like crazy for him to make it if he goes now.

i continue to believe the bolded is true. you need to make some aggressive assumptions about relative draft strength and/or the career development benefit of staying in college relative to being in the nba (which on its surface, would be dubious to begin with) to get to a total basketball career earnings number that is higher from staying, in addition to the fact you'd need to ignore the fact that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush - that is, yes, $1.2mm per year guaranteed for 2 years may not be set for life money, but it's quite good vs. $500k per year second round money (assuming you do get signed, which is a risk).

and, to the argument of whether or not someone is making a bet on himself, he is actually making a bet on himself either way. if he goes, he gets past the rookie pay scale earlier and sets himself for an extra year of making the big bucks afterward. so even if he's underrated and comes out early, he's likely still better off (strictly financially, which is not the only consideration).

with respect to ennis and marshall - with the benefit of hindsight, they probably would've seriously jeopardized their 1st round status by hanging around an extra year (given that they've been exposed in the nba, they might have been exposed in college while staying that extra year). i don't see how this helps the argument that grabbing the money is a bad thing (strictly from a financial standpoint) since its impossible to see their paths had they chosen to stay.

given that people pursue this conversation like it's religion, probably not much benefit to going further. i feel quite confident that the money angle of the debate is one sided.

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 10:24 PM
Chad Ford writes a little preview of the 2016 draft here: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/12688598/ben-simmons-names-know-2016-nba-draft-nba

Excerpt:

I spoke with a number of NBA scouts about which of the players from the high school class of 2015 might be NBA players someday.

The consensus from NBA scouts is that this class isn't as strong as in years past. While there are a few intriguing names at the top, the depth isn't nearly what it's been.

"The last couple of years we've had steak," one NBA scout said. "This year, after the first two or three guys are off the board, we get hamburger. Good hamburger, but hamburger nonetheless."

Phoenix22
04-14-2015, 10:34 PM
The pros and cons have been pretty well laid out above. Just remember one important thing: for guys like Tyus the goal is not to get to the NBA, the goal is to stay in the NBA.

I wish him the best regardless of his decision, but of course I for selfish reasons want him to come back. I also feel that returning is probably the best long term decision for him basketball wise, but only he can make that decision. He will always be a champion! Duke 2015!

Duvall
04-14-2015, 10:43 PM
First, I have believed since the final home game that all 3 Freshmen were going to declare and I still have not changed my mind on that. That said, Durham honored the team today with a celebration downtown. Okafor and Winslow were not with the team but Tyus was.

Might mean nothing, but thought I would share.

Source is the Adam Gold Show on 99.9 The Fan show today.

I wouldn't read too much into that. Jahlil was in Oklahoma at the USBWA Awards Banquet, accepting National Freshman of the Year.

Duke95
04-14-2015, 11:09 PM
The 3rd year is not guaranteed though. Only the first two. Any draftee at that spot could be let go after the second year.

Ok, so let's incorporate that into the calculations. If that is the case, then I calculate that there must be at least an 81% probability of Tyus' receiving a guaranteed 3rd year in order for him to be indifferent between the two scenarios. A couple of notes: 1) I'm ignoring inflation, which has been quite low, 2) this also ignores any benefits associated with staying at Duke for another year other than an increase in draft position from 21 to 15.

KandG
04-14-2015, 11:40 PM
And if he can actually become the #10 pick, as Jason Evans suggests, he makes out like a bandit by staying. He'd be making a bet on himself by staying, and Tyus Jones tends to come through in the clutch.

It would have to be a historically weak draft for a 6-1 point guard that isn't Chris Paul or Kemba Walker to be drafted 10th. Below is a list of all the guards drafted in the Top 25 of the NBA draft dating back to 2010. For any guard whose height and weight are close to Tyus, I've indicated where they were drafted.

Now of course the temptation is to immediately scroll down the list to Trey Burke or Jimmer Fredette and say -- "See, there's someone who isn't a super athlete whose stock allowed them to be drafted super high!". But this is precisely the issue: Burke and Fredette are considered cautionary tales of players whose college rep got them drafted way beyond where they should have been..in fact, I've already heard one writer refer to Tyus as "Trey Burke 2.0". Also, Burke was drafted in one of the worst drafts in recent memory.

The NBA likes size in their guards. That doesn't mean there isn't a place for a player like Tyus...I'm already envisioning teams and systems where he could really shine as a key backup or even in some small two PG lineups. But the odds of him improving his stock to mid to high lottery level, I'm having a very hard time seeing...unless next year's draft is 2013-level bad, Tyus improves dramatically, AND a team is desperate to draft for positional need rather than upside. Quite an unlikely combination of circumstances.

*As always, I post with the caveat that I hope to be desperately wrong about one of my favorite Duke players ever

GUARDS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 25 OF THE NBA 2010 TO 2015 (Descending chronological and draft order)

Dante Exum 6-5
Elfrid Payton 6-4
Zach Lavine 6-6
James Young 6-6
Tyler Ennis 6-2 (18th pick, 2014)
Gary Harris 6-4
Jordan Adams 6-5
Shabazz Napier 6-1 (24th pick, 2014)
Victor Oladipo 6-4
Ben McLemore 6-5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6-5
Trey Burke 6-1 (9th pick, 2013)
CJ McCollum 6-4
Michael Carter-Williams 6-6
Dennis Schroder 6-1 (17th pick, 2013)
Shane Larkin 5-11 (18th pick, 2013)
Tim Hardaway Jr 6-6
Bradley Beal 6-5
Dion Waiters 6-4
Damian Lillard 6-3
Austin Rivers 6-4
Kendall Marshall 6-4
Evan Fournier 6-7
John Jenkins 6-4
Tony Wroten 6-6
Kyrie Irving 6-3
Brandon Knight 6-3
Kemba Walker 6-1 (9th pick, 2011)
Jimmer Fredette 6-2 (10th pick, 2011)
Klay Thompson 6-7
Alec Burks 6-6
Iman Shumpert 6-5
Nolan Smith 6-2 (21st pick, 2011)
Reggie Jackson 6-3
Marshon Brooks 6-5
John Wall 6-4
Eric Bledsoe 6-1 (18th pick, 2010)
Avery Bradley 6-2 (19th pick, 2010)
Elliott Williams 6-5

Kedsy
04-15-2015, 12:34 AM
with respect to ennis and marshall - with the benefit of hindsight, they probably would've seriously jeopardized their 1st round status by hanging around an extra year (given that they've been exposed in the nba, they might have been exposed in college while staying that extra year).

I don't think either Marshall or Ennis would have been "exposed" in college, ever. They were both superb college point guards (as is Tyus). The likelihood is they would have continued to be superb college PGs, for as long as they chose to stay in college.

The problem they both had, and Tyus has also, is a lack of lateral quickness, but while that showed in college for all three of them on the defensive end, it obviously didn't keep them from being stars in college and was unlikely to suddenly become a major problem at that level. Ennis and Tyus have the additional problem of being on the small side for an NBA guard, but again that problem wasn't an issue for either of them in the college game and would not likely become one with an extra year in school.

Injury is a real risk when coming back for an extra year of college, but in my mind "exposure" is only an issue for players who would be taken primarily on potential. If such a player comes back and shows his potential isn't as high as previously thought (like JMM), their draft stock might plummet. It's not generally a problem for players who are viewed as being more or less finished products who aren't believed to have sky high potential out of line with what they've shown so far.

Also, getting your second contract a year early only matters if your second contract is significantly bigger than your first contract. That doesn't happen for every player, not even counting the players who don't get a second contract at all. For players who don't get a big second contract, the financial advantages of getting out there a year earlier are only (a) an extra year of getting paid but only if the years/mileage debate comes out on the years side (in other words this supposed advantage may be illusory if "mileage" determines career length rather than years); and (b) the time value of money, which isn't nothing, but a year's interest at 4% on $1.5 million is only $60,000 (simple interest, obviously it's a bit more compounded).

The other side of the coin is, for a small-for-his-position, not-particularly-athletic player, the likelihood of increasing your draft stock significantly with a good college season isn't particularly large. Maybe Tyus goes up 3 spots, maybe he goes down 3 spots, depending on who's drafting when.

So, and I apologize if this is a bit rambling, I would argue that for someone in Tyus's position -- where a lucrative second contract is far from guaranteed -- the finances are too murky to make any kind of definitive statement, and thus the calculus can be essentially boiled down to risk of career-threatening injury vs. how much you enjoy the college experience. The former depends on how averse one is to a devastating-but-extremely-low-percentage risk and the latter is completely subjective. I don't think it's a no-brainer, either way.

neemizzle
04-15-2015, 12:48 AM
I'd love for Tyus to stay. Absolutely would love it. But what does he gain from another year? NBADraft.net, as I've used for draft references for years and they're pretty accurate in regards to how the draft order usually happens, has Tyus going at #17 to Milwaukee (if it stayed that way, which you know it won't). But Milwaukee would be a pretty good fit for him, I'd think. They're getting things rolling there, and Jabari has been out all year, so when he's back they'll be better. With Tyus on that team, you'd imagine they'd be at least a slight bit better.

I think that's the thing here, whatever team he's on, he's going to help. Regardless of a record, he'll make them better. I for one would hate to see him leave, but if it's what's right for him, that's all that matters. It's his life, he needs to live it.

Skitzle
04-15-2015, 12:51 AM
For Tyus to increase his draft stock next year he needs to have a Npoy calibre season
season.

That's a pretty lofty goal, but not unachievable.

cato
04-15-2015, 02:12 AM
Let's look at the math. If Tyus is chosen 21st this year, he makes approximately $3.66M over the next 3 years.
If he waits, he makes 0 next year, but, if he is chosen 15th next year, he makes $3.4M in 2 years!

So, basically, the cost is 260k to stay at Duke, but the gain will be realized in higher salary in each following year, not to mention what he gains by another year with K.

*Numbers based on the link Sluggo just posted.

You really need to add some percentages to this to account for likely values. You also need to take into account the risk that he will be injured during his extra year in college, or that he will play fewer years total in the NBA if he delays entry.

At some point I'll give up on trying to get the right variables in play when people start analyzing the financial aspects, but I guess I haven't reached that point yet.

bob blue devil
04-15-2015, 05:18 AM
I don't think either Marshall or Ennis would have been "exposed" in college, ever. They were both superb college point guards (as is Tyus). The likelihood is they would have continued to be superb college PGs, for as long as they chose to stay in college.


I mostly agree and should have been more clear - I meant exposed as in the fact that they lacked NBA attributes would've become more evident. There are plenty of superb ncaa point guards who aren't 1st round picks. A second year can demonstrate you were not able to improve upon certain critical shortcomings. It also gives college opponents another year to perfect defending your strengths and exploiting your weaknesses.

All of this makes me wonder, is there any evidence that staying improves a projected 1st round player's draft stock at all (I mean real numbers evidence, not the anecdotal garbage that dominates this debate)? I guess you'd need a database of draft projections from before guys announce...

sagegrouse
04-15-2015, 06:15 AM
Let's look at the math. If Tyus is chosen 21st this year, he makes approximately $3.66M over the next 3 years.
If he waits, he makes 0 next year, but, if he is chosen 15th next year, he makes $3.4M in 2 years!

So, basically, the cost is 260k to stay at Duke, but the gain will be realized in higher salary in each following year, not to mention what he gains by another year with K.

*Numbers based on the link Sluggo just posted.

Just the first two years are guaranteed. Here's the dope from SBNation:


How long are rookie contracts to begin with?

Rookie contracts for first-round draft picks are all four years long, but the third and fourth season have team options. None of the following rules apply to second-round picks and unsigned rookies.

How much do rookie contracts pay?

First-round rookie contracts increase each year, but pay depending on the position a player was selected in the draft. The No. 1 pick earns the highest salary, the No. 2 pick follows and so on. For example, the No. 1 pick in 2014-15 could make $4,592,900 -- the scale amount -- in his first season. They'll each make proportionally more in the next three seasons of their rookie contract.

Teams can offer rookies a minimum of 80 percent of the scale amount or as much as 120 percent. Usually it's the latter.

DavidBenAkiva
04-15-2015, 07:37 AM
I think there's a couple of factors that could really benefit Tyus if he stays another year.

The perception of a player based on his college career can have big impact on their draft prospects. Consider Doug McDermott. He wasn't considered exceptionally quick or athletic coming out of college, but he was drafted at #9 overall based on his incredible scoring acumen and shooting. There were a lot of questions about Stephan Curry's size and strength coming out of college, too. A lot of people still wonder if he can guard NBA-level athletes. The point here is that guys that can put up big numbers, especially guys that shoot the ball very well, are highly valued in the NBA.

One thing that Tyus can do to increase his draft stock is be the leading scorer on the team while continuing to display that great passing ability of his. Tyus was a good shooter last year - 37.9% from 3 - but not great. Obviously, he hit clutch shots when it mattered. With so many scoring options on the team - Okafor, Winslow, Cook, and the outside shooters - Tyus didn't need to shoulder the shooting load. What he can do to really help his financial prospects is to be the team scoring leader while shooting a high percentage. The NBA, especially right now, really values that skill.

One other thing to consider for Tyus is the impact on his contract when the new TV deal goes into effect for the NBA. I believe I saw a news report that the new TV deal is going to dramatically increase the cap space for teams. Will draft picks also see a big bump in guaranteed salary? That might really matter if he would be drafted between 19 and 25 this year versus 9 to 14 next year.

dukebluesincebirth
04-15-2015, 08:08 AM
For Tyus to increase his draft stock next year he needs to have a Npoy calibre season
season.

That's a pretty lofty goal, but not unachievable.

I agree... It seems lofty, but when you look around the country for next year's NPOY, who WOULD be the favorite? There'll be no Okafor, Winslow, or Towns. Maybe Melo Trimble from Maryland? Stanley Johnson from Zona (I think he's yet to make an NBA decision)? Am I missing someone? I don't see any Deangelo Russells out there. Ben Simmons (#1 rated HS player) has a shot I guess, but he's never played a college game. I think Tyus would have a pretty good shot at this.

ikiru36
04-15-2015, 08:23 AM
I appreciate all the arguments being offered on both sides regarding determinations of what is the better decision for Tyus. Obviously, he will make the ultimate decision and I don't think he really has a bad choice either way (allowing that hindsight could later allow one to critique otherwise).

I just want to address all the stated concern regarding his size. While every measurement I've seen places Tyus at around 6'1" tall with shoes (meaning he's likely a bit shy of 6' tall in stocking feet, as the rest of us mere mortals are measured), he also apparently has an above average wingspan for a player of his height. Tyus is listed variously as having a 6'3" and most recently a 6'5.25" wingspan and this would more typically accord with a player who was 6'2" or 6'4" (depending upon which is correct). If the former, I think it affects his nba projections slightly in a positive direction and if the latter it may largely mitigate against his size being a negative at the PG position. As a particularly contrasting example, Jon Scheyer measured at the NBA Combine as 6'6" with shoes, but with a wingspan of 6'3.25" earning him the dreaded "T-Rex" label. Sadly (due to his eye injury) we will never know how this might have impacted Jon's effectiveness in the NBA, but if Tyus legitimately has a 6'5" wingspan, I'm sure that NBA scouts and GMs will take note of that and adjust their evaluation of his potential accordingly. Certainly, wingspan is not the be all and end all stat, and height in a PG is indisputably important as regards seeing over the defense...etc. (BTW, one more comp. Chris Paul was similarly measured at 6'1" in shoes, and with a 6'4.25" wingspan.)

But, much conventional wisdom to the contrary regarding limited defensive acumen, Tyus had to play against a number of taller and supposedly more athletic players over the course of this season and won more than his share of such battles, particularly in crunch time. And while I have not broken down all the game film, it's hard to imagine that Duke was such a fantastically successful defense during the tournament unless Tyus was playing pretty excellent defense himself. During the run of the last 5 games when Duke's defense was particularly exceptional, Tyus played no fewer than 36 minutes in any game. And for all the talk of his lacking "lateral quickness", he sure has had the lateral quickness to get wherever he's wanted on the court when the team needed him to and sufficient lateral quickness to be part of an excellent team defense while garnering 1.6 steals and only 1.2 personal fouls per game over the season.

This is all to say that, despite his relatively short stature, I think we might be underselling Tyus' NBA potential, whenever he chooses to move on.

Go Tyus!!!!!!! Go Blue Devils!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ichabod Drain
04-15-2015, 08:34 AM
I agree... It seems lofty, but when you look around the country for next year's NPOY, who WOULD be the favorite? There'll be no Okafor, Winslow, or Towns. Maybe Melo Trimble from Maryland? Stanley Johnson from Zona (I think he's yet to make an NBA decision)? Am I missing someone? I don't see any Deangelo Russells out there. Ben Simmons (#1 rated HS player) has a shot I guess, but he's never played a college game. I think Tyus would have a pretty good shot at this.

To be fair, no one was predicting Deangelo to have that type of season at this point last year.

Kyle Wiltjer if he stays could have a massive season next year, Brogdon as well.

rifraf
04-15-2015, 08:40 AM
Well, it's official. (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=210024690&DB_OEM_ID=4200)

Jbsherr DUKE!
04-15-2015, 08:40 AM
Jones just declared

duke blue brewcrew
04-15-2015, 08:51 AM
Tyus declares for the NBA. Congrats to Tyus and I wish him well. Selfishly, I was hoping he would stay one more year. Praying for Thornton and a transfer - Duke needs ball handlers and depth in the back court.