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Rich
04-08-2015, 12:36 PM
I am absolutely beside myself after hearing numerous pundits say that they believe that Jah's draft status dropped due to his performance in the championship game. They talk about his poor defense on Kaminsky, especially on the perimeter, lack of rebounds, lack of finishing some chippies, and poor free throw shooting (he was 0 for 1). I've also heard one mention the play where Kaminsky stripped Jah in the paint when he was making a post move as an example of him not being strong with the ball. Are you kidding me?

Clearly this was not Jah's best game, but have these talking heads seen him play at all this season? Certainly he has defensive and free throw shooting liabilities, but that's not news. How can his performance in this one game negate his dominant performances all season? Look, he's going to be top 3, I get that. But to say that someone like Karl Anthony Towns has jumped Jah solely because of his performance in the championship game is frustrating and completely absurd, IMHO.

nmduke2001
04-08-2015, 12:40 PM
I am absolutely beside myself after hearing numerous pundits say that they believe that Jah's draft status dropped due to his performance in the championship game. They talk about his poor defense on Kaminsky, especially on the perimeter, lack of rebounds, lack of finishing some chippies, and poor free throw shooting (he was 0 for 1). I've also heard one mention the play where Kaminsky stripped Jah in the paint when he was making a post move as an example of him not being strong with the ball. Are you kidding me?

Clearly this was not Jah's best game, but have these talking heads seen him play at all this season? Certainly he has defensive and free throw shooting liabilities, but that's not news. How can his performance in this one game negate his dominant performances all season? Look, he's going to be top 3, I get that. But to say that someone like Karl Anthony Towns has jumped Jah solely because of his performance in the championship game is frustrating and completely absurd, IMHO.

People have been saying for a few weeks now that Jah might drop a bit. There are a lot out there that think that Towns is more well-rounded. I even heard after Houston that Justise should go number 1 overall. I think that Jah's relative bad game in the Championship just added fuel to the fire.

Maybe Jahlil, Justise and Tyus all decide to stay to improve their status (a guy can dream, can't he).

TKG
04-08-2015, 12:41 PM
I think he needs to come back, for one more season, to work on those shortcomings.🙏

Troublemaker
04-08-2015, 12:41 PM
Agreed. It would be silly to judge Jahlil in this one game against his worst possible matchup at the college level. Shaq would've had trouble against Kaminsky, too.

CameronBornAndBred
04-08-2015, 12:54 PM
I love how opinions on such things are affected by one game. Hell, I saw news stories yesterday about how wonderful it is that Grayson has announced he's coming back. My first thought when I saw those was "well, duh".
This game will be nothing more than a joyful memory and afterthought for people making the actual choices. They will have reams of reports from scouts, trainers, and coaches, all who have put these players through the paces in person. Regardless of where Jah goes in the draft, he won't be in that spot because Kaminsky stripped the ball from him.

WillJ
04-08-2015, 12:55 PM
I'm as big a Jahlil fan as anyone, but it's not his birthright to be the number one pick. The NBA places less emphasis on post-up skills than it once did, and Jahlil's got some work to show that he can defend in space. The championship game didn't help on that last point. I think he'll be an excellent NBA player, but could Towns or Justise end up better... it's possible.

kAzE
04-08-2015, 01:02 PM
Agreed. It would be silly to judge Jahlil in this one game against his worst possible matchup at the college level. Shaq would've had trouble against Kaminsky, too.

But you also have to keep in mind that there are way better players than Frank Kaminsky at the next level that Jah will be expected to defend. Players that come to mind are DeMarcus Cousins, Al Jefferson, both Gasols, Al Horford, and Brook Lopez. These guys are all quicker, more athletic, and more skilled than Kaminsky, and would absolutely eat Jah alive if he plays the way he did on Monday. Jah's defense is absolutely a work in progress, and I don't think it's much of a debate that Karl Towns performed better in the NCAA tournament than Jah. Jah's offensive potential is unrivaled by any big man in the past decade with the exception of Anthony Davis, but I'm with most people who consider Towns to have an overall higher ceiling. As far as the draft is concerned, they are the same level to me. Jah is superior offensively, while Towns is the much better defender. Towns will almost certainly improve offensively, and once Jah gets into peak physical shape, he will be a much better defender. But just in terms of being a run and jump athlete, I think Towns is a more prototypical NBA style player who is more versatile on both ends. However, dominant low post big men like Jah only come along once every 10 or so years. Whoever picks 2nd will have the easiest choice in the entire draft.

duke09hms
04-08-2015, 01:13 PM
But you also have to keep in mind that there are way better players than Frank Kaminsky at the next level that Jah will be expected to defend. Players that come to mind are DeMarcus Cousins, Al Jefferson, both Gasols, Al Horford, and Brook Lopez. These guys are all quicker, more athletic, and more skilled than Kaminsky, and would absolutely eat Jah alive if he plays the way he did on Monday. Jah's defense is absolutely a work in progress, and I don't think it's much of a debate that Karl Towns performed better in the NCAA tournament than Jah. Jah's offensive potential is unrivaled by any big man in the past decade with the exception of Anthony Davis, but I'm with most people who consider Towns to have an overall higher ceiling. As far as the draft is concerned, they are the same level to me. Jah is superior offensively, while Towns is the much better defender. Towns will almost certainly improve offensively, and once Jah gets into peak physical shape, he will be a much better defender. But just in terms of being a run and jump athlete, I think Towns is a more prototypical NBA style player who is more versatile on both ends. However, dominant low post big men like Jah only come along once every 10 or so years. Whoever picks 2nd will have the easiest choice in the entire draft.

I agree whole-heartedly. ONE MORE YEAR!!!

CDu
04-08-2015, 01:20 PM
Things I think Okafor can/needs to improve upon at next level include his lower body strength and fitness. He tended to play "high" a lot, rather than getting deep in his stance (on both ends of the floor). This robs him of some lateral quickness and explosiveness. I think he has just been so much bigger and better than his opponents that he hasn't needed to work as much. Well, that will change for him next year.

But honestly, even those concerns are not going to be enough for him to fall below #2 or at worst 3. And he may still go #1.

Wander
04-08-2015, 01:22 PM
It wasn't the game against Wisconsin. It was the combination of the games against Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Utah, and it's only maybe going to drop him to #2.

Kedsy
04-08-2015, 01:31 PM
But to say that someone like Karl Anthony Towns has jumped Jah solely because of his performance in the championship game is frustrating and completely absurd, IMHO.

Especially when Kaminsky went for 20 and 11 against Towns, too.

CDu
04-08-2015, 01:31 PM
It wasn't the game against Wisconsin. It was the combination of the games against Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Utah, and it's only maybe going to drop him to #2.

Right. It's not like we're talking about a drop out of the top-5 or anything. He's absolutely going top-3, almost certainly top-2, and probably still #1. And it is not a one-game sample. As Wander notes, Okafor didn't have a big game in either game against Wisconsin, he didn't have a big game against Gonzaga, and he didn't have a big game against Utah. In games against teams with NBA-caliber centers, Okafor didn't shine. That's not an indictment of him as a player, just raises a bit of a question about his sure-fire #1 pick status.

Troublemaker
04-08-2015, 01:33 PM
But you also have to keep in mind that there are way better players than Frank Kaminsky at the next level that Jah will be expected to defend. Players that come to mind are DeMarcus Cousins, Al Jefferson, both Gasols, Al Horford, and Brook Lopez. These guys are all quicker, more athletic, and more skilled than Kaminsky, and would absolutely eat Jah alive if he plays the way he did on Monday. Jah's defense is absolutely a work in progress, and I don't think it's much of a debate that Karl Towns performed better in the NCAA tournament than Jah. Jah's offensive potential is unrivaled by any big man in the past decade with the exception of Anthony Davis, but I'm with most people who consider Towns to have an overall higher ceiling. As far as the draft is concerned, they are the same level to me. Jah is superior offensively, while Towns is the much better defender. Towns will almost certainly improve offensively, and once Jah gets into peak physical shape, he will be a much better defender. But just in terms of being a run and jump athlete, I think Towns is a more prototypical NBA style player who is more versatile on both ends. However, dominant low post big men like Jah only come along once every 10 or so years. Whoever picks 2nd will have the easiest choice in the entire draft.

Kaminsky is actually even a worse matchup than all of the guys you mentioned, imo. This isn't to say that Jahlil doesn't have to improve defensively and athletically (by improving his body), but, essentially, all those NBA players you listed would be working against Jahlil 18-ft and in. Yes, his rookie year, they'll probably be able to work him good. But NBA franchises will live with that because Jahlil's gonna be able to work some of them on offense 18-ft and in as well. And eventually, as he improves defensively and body-wise year after year, he's going to win all those matchups because he'll hurt them 18-ft and in better than they can hurt him 18-ft and in. He'll eventually score 2s better than those guys can score 2s against him, in other words.

Kaminsky is a completely different animal as a stretch 5 (and I assume stretch 4 in the NBA). It was terrifying every time Kaminsky got the ball because it looked like (1) he could pop a three at any time and Jah wouldn't be able to challenge, (2) he could drive Jah all day and draw fouls and complete 3-pt plays, or (3) Duke would have to over-help when Kaminsky drives and he could kick out for open threes. On an "expected points given up" basis, Kaminsky was a worse matchup than any 2-pt based post player.

All that said, I agree completely with you that Towns is a better fit for where the NBA is these days and where it's continuing to evolve. It's better to have the combination of excellent rim protection and rim-running (for pick-and-rolls) than back-to-basket skills. I would take Towns #1 as well. Just saying that Kaminsky really is an awful, awful matchup for him.

devildeac
04-08-2015, 01:38 PM
People have been saying for a few weeks now that Jah might drop a bit. There are a lot out there that think that Towns is more well-rounded. I even heard after Houston that Justise should go number 1 overall. I think that Jah's relative bad game in the Championship just added fuel to the fire.

Maybe Jahlil, Justise and Tyus all decide to stay to improve their status (a guy can dream, can't he).

That'd be really cool if they all stayed and Tyus improved his draft status so much that he is the #1 pick in the 2016 NBA draft over Jah and Justise/Justice/Justuce.:rolleyes:;)

CDu
04-08-2015, 01:39 PM
Especially when Kaminsky went for 20 and 11 against Towns, too.

I think the bigger argument made there was that Towns still got his (16 and 9 on 7-11 FG shooting) whereas Okafor didn't (10 points and 3 rebounds on 5-9 shooting).

I don't know that either is being drafted based on defense, but I think the point of those second-guessing Okafor as a clear-cut #1 are pointing to his tendency to not put up big numbers when facing NBA-quality/size big men (in addition to the clear limitations defensively). Even likely backups like Karnowski.

Specifically with respect to Towns vs Okafor, the tradeoffs are this:

Okafor:
- more polished post game
- bigger body
- plays less athletic (not below the rim, but not really above the rim)

Towns:
- more athletic
- better defender/shotblocker
- pretty good, though limited in variety, post-game
- much better shooter

Towns is almost certainly going to stay more athletic/quicker than Okafor. So the question is can Okafor's offensive skills remain superior enough to Towns' skills to offset the difference in athleticism?

Some GMs will like Okafor, some (who may be swayed by his more "meh" showings against bigger teams) may be more inclined to take Towns.

NM Duke Fan
04-08-2015, 01:49 PM
Kaminsky is actually even a worse matchup than all of the guys you mentioned, imo. This isn't to say that Jahlil doesn't have to improve defensively and athletically (by improving his body), but, essentially, all those NBA players you listed would be working against Jahlil 18-ft and in. Yes, his rookie year, they'll probably be able to work him good. But NBA franchises will live with that because Jahlil's gonna be able to work some of them on offense 18-ft and in as well. And eventually, as he improves defensively and body-wise year after year, he's going to win all those matchups because he'll hurt them 18-ft and in better than they can hurt him 18-ft and in. He'll eventually score 2s better than those guys can score 2s against him, in other words.

Kaminsky is a completely different animal as a stretch 5 (and I assume stretch 4 in the NBA). It was terrifying every time Kaminsky got the ball because it looked like (1) he could pop a three at any time and Jah wouldn't be able to challenge, (2) he could drive Jah all day and draw fouls and complete 3-pt plays, or (3) Duke would have to over-help when Kaminsky drives and he could kick out for open threes. On an "expected points given up" basis, Kaminsky was a worse matchup than any 2-pt based post player.

All that said, I agree completely with you that Towns is a better fit for where the NBA is these days and where it's continuing to evolve. It's better to have the combination of excellent rim protection and rim-running (for pick-and-rolls) than back-to-basket skills. I would take Towns #1 as well. Just saying that Kaminsky really is an awful, awful matchup for him.

Totally agree with this post, there is all kinds of loose talk out there. And I think that some pundits and even pro scouts are under-rating Kaminsky as well. They both have significant strengths in their own realms.

Okafor has better post skills and moves than many NBA post players have after years of experience. Some teams still value such skills very highly. Where he is drafted will partially depend on the bouncing balls...

wavedukefan70s
04-08-2015, 01:51 PM
I know this is about oak.but just for the sake of it .did Kaminskys stock drop because of amiles wonderful job guarding him? I mean there are quicker and stronger guys in the nba.I believe that they will go as they would have before the tournament. My only question is do we lose two or three Early.

Ichabod Drain
04-08-2015, 01:53 PM
That'd be really cool if they all stayed and Tyus improved his draft status so much that he is the #1 pick in the 2016 NBA draft over Jah and Justise/Justice/Justuce.:rolleyes:;)

Don't worry about the spelling, it's just us here.

tux
04-08-2015, 01:58 PM
Some GMs will like Okafor, some (who may be swayed by his more "meh" showings against bigger teams) may be more inclined to take Towns.

True, but some thoughts in this thread IMO are over-analyzing the situation. Imaging players in the NBA that can score on Okafor or worrying that Kaminsky was able to drive and pick up a few fouls will mean very little come draft time. I keep going back to how teams had to account for Okafor at all times. Game plans were devised mainly around what you were going to do with Okafor. He dominated a lot of games and bent the opposing D every time he touched the ball. He then got banged up against UNC and seemed maybe a step slow after that. But I'll make the not-so-bold prediction that he'll still go #1. And if someone picks Towns #1 over Okafor, I'll then predict that that will be seen later as unbelievably foolish. Not sure about the kid playing in China -- haven't seen him yet. I keep hearing he's the next D. Rose; hopefully for him, the healthy version. (Sorry CDu)

evrim
04-08-2015, 01:59 PM
I felt like two of the 4 fouls called against Okafor were bogus. I wonder how he would have played with only two fouls. Okafor held himself just fine against very talented post players. Kamisnky is not really just a post player so it was not really a good matchup for him. Most centers in NBA would have the same issue. Kaminsky reminds me of Nowitzky.

tux
04-08-2015, 02:07 PM
Kaminsky reminds me of Nowitzky.

You should be Kaminsky's agent ;)

He's not as good a shooter as Dirk (or even Laettner). He sorta pushes his longer shots. He's a great competitor and does a lot of things really well. I think he's a solid role player in the NBA. I mean, Tyler H. had just as great a senior season as Frank. Different players, but I see their NBA value being about the same... Great pick in the 10-20 range IMO.

devildeac
04-08-2015, 02:10 PM
Don't worry about the spelling, it's just us here.

Nice.

I was trying to include all iterations of the spellings of his name that I recall seeing here;).

flyingdutchdevil
04-08-2015, 02:11 PM
...and will most likely go top 2. Between his size, his offensive post moves, and his pass outs, he will be a really good player in the NBA.

There is another thing I know: Okafor is not a good defensive player and will never be considered great at defense. Rarely, if ever, do you see mediocre/bad defenders in college become good/great defenders in the NBA. This can happen on offense, and good college defenders and become bad NBA defenders, but never the other way around. People point to JJ as an example of being bad in college and good in the NBA. The dirty little secret about JJ is that he was sooooo much better at defense in college than people remember. He had good instincts and could stay in front of his man. Sure, he didn't have a lot of steals or taken charges, but JJ was about denial and poor FG for the shooter rather than turnovers. I'm not saying that Okafor will always be poor on D, but I feel that defense is never going to define his game.

And then there is something I am unsure about. In the last month, Okafor saw his rebounding numbers just plummet. Not sure what to make of it. Part of it is Winslow just taking down everything. But I would have expected a few more offensive rebounds. Is Okafor a good rebounder? I would say yes, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Olympic Fan
04-08-2015, 02:16 PM
Chad Ford just updated his ESPN "Big Board" today (sorry, its Insider, so I can't link)

FWIW (and in this case, it's not a lot), he has Towns No. 1 and Jahlil No. 2 ... He has Winslow at No. 6 and Tyus at No. 24, even after the title game. Interesting that he lists just the first round, but has "The next five in" and the first guy on the list is Grayson Allen.

I wouldn't pay too much attention -- Ford's not exactly Mel Kiper when it comes to this stuff ... although he has been known to go back and fiddle with his predictions after the draft to make them look better.

MChambers
04-08-2015, 02:23 PM
I felt like two of the 4 fouls called against Okafor were bogus. I wonder how he would have played with only two fouls. Okafor held himself just fine against very talented post players. Kamisnky is not really just a post player so it was not really a good matchup for him. Most centers in NBA would have the same issue. Kaminsky reminds me of Nowitzky.

K said Kaminsky was like Laettner and thus a really tough matchup.

flyingdutchdevil
04-08-2015, 02:24 PM
Chad Ford just updated his ESPN "Big Board" today (sorry, its Insider, so I can't link)

FWIW (and in this case, it's not a lot), he has Towns No. 1 and Jahlil No. 2 ... He has Winslow at No. 6 and Tyus at No. 24, even after the title game. Interesting that he lists just the first round, but has "The next five in" and the first guy on the list is Grayson Allen.

I wouldn't pay too much attention -- Ford's not exactly Mel Kiper when it comes to this stuff ... although he has been known to go back and fiddle with his predictions after the draft to make them look better.

Ford is very good though, and he talks to more scouts and GMs than any other mock draft. I think Towns will go number one. He is simply more "balanced" for a modern big: he's got good O, good D, good rebounding, great athleticism, etc. I feel that Okafor is either great or mediocre at big men key traits, and that is holding him back from a surefire #1.

IMO, Winslow is a top fiver, and it isn't even close. Tyus also looks a little too low, and I'm sure the myopic nature of GMs and scouts will have Tyus drafted in the top 20 (not that he doesn't deserve it. I think Tyus should go top 20, and he'll be a steady PG on a steady team).

superdave
04-08-2015, 02:24 PM
The process these players go through and the needs of a team drafting #1 overall will probably decide between Towns and Okafor. If Okafor can show explosiveness and a consistent 15 footer in workouts, and maybe even a respectable body fat, then he will get a lot of buzz for #1. 6'11' true centers with Okafor's footwork are once-in-a-generation players. If he takes the next three weeks off and has a few lackluster workouts, then he probably will be the second pick.

Because the NBA is changing to a more spread-and-kick offense, perhaps some of the lottery teams would rather have a stretch 4 who can play the 5 like Towns. And then there's Philly. All bets are off with them.

flyingdutchdevil
04-08-2015, 02:29 PM
The process these players go through and the needs of a team drafting #1 overall will probably decide between Towns and Okafor. If Okafor can show explosiveness and a consistent 15 footer in workouts, and maybe even a respectable body fat, then he will get a lot of buzz for #1. 6'11' true centers with Okafor's footwork are once-in-a-generation players. If he takes the next three weeks off and has a few lackluster workouts, then he probably will be the second pick.

Because the NBA is changing to a more spread-and-kick offense, perhaps some of the lottery teams would rather have a stretch 4 who can play the 5 like Towns. And then there's Philly. All bets are off with them.

Yeah, it's still a toss up depending on what you're looking for.

Also, #2 may be a blessing in disguise. The team with the worst record is... the Knicks! And I would never want a Blue Devil to play for James Dolan (sorry Lance Thomas).

#2 is the Timberwolves, an up-and-coming team that is another superstar and a few pieces away from being relevant. #3 is Philly, a team that will invest mightily in its best assets. And #4 is the Lakers...

Oh boy, I really hope the Knicks and Lakers don't win #1 and #2.

Bob Green
04-08-2015, 02:33 PM
Interesting that he lists just the first round, but has "The next five in" and the first guy on the list is Grayson Allen.

Per the Twitterverse, Allen will be returning:


Stephen Wiseman ‏@stevewisemanNC · 3m3 minutes ago
Grayson Allen said he will be back at Duke next year, despite his rising stock in the eyes of NBA scouts. Done. End of story.

brevity
04-08-2015, 02:34 PM
Point: Jahlil Okafor wasn't even playing in the last part of a close national championship game.
Counterpoint: Well, neither was Karl-Anthony Towns.

tux
04-08-2015, 02:38 PM
I first saw the "they should take Towns" meme in an article from a NY paper. The whole thing was almost entirely based on the opinion of Towns's AAU coach. (Shocker that after careful consideration, he thinks Towns is the better pick.) Then, slowly a few talking heads started repeating it. I mean, folks are entitled to their opinions, but part of me wonders about the behind the scenes jockeying that starts to take place... While I'm sure K would love to point to Okafor as a #1 pick, I do think that sort of thing means more to Calipari and UK. Calipari has repeatedly said that he doesn't measure his program in terms of wins or titles, but more in terms of getting his players to the NBA and where he gets his guys drafted. Nothing wrong with that, but I sorta wonder if World Wide Wes et al. start more extensive lobbying efforts than we realize...

53n206
04-08-2015, 02:43 PM
Point: Jahlil Okafor wasn't even playing in the last part of a close national championship game.
Counterpoint: Well, neither was Karl-Anthony Towns.
Really tough to play the national championship game when you have two early fouls. Then you come in the second half and you pick up a couple more. Tough spot for anyone, especially when you are the "main man". We don't know what Coach K instructed him to do: be aggressive or hold back. I was certainly happy to have him in at the end.

I've heard enough about the foul discrepancy. We were ripped the first half. With so few of their players having any calls against them in the first half they were given an open road to be aggressive in the second. Under those circumstances a team can generate many fouls in a short time.

OZ
04-08-2015, 02:49 PM
Kaminsky is actually even a worse matchup than all of the guys you mentioned, imo. This isn't to say that Jahlil doesn't have to improve defensively and athletically (by improving his body), but, essentially, all those NBA players you listed would be working against Jahlil 18-ft and in. Yes, his rookie year, they'll probably be able to work him good. But NBA franchises will live with that because Jahlil's gonna be able to work some of them on offense 18-ft and in as well. And eventually, as he improves defensively and body-wise year after year, he's going to win all those matchups because he'll hurt them 18-ft and in better than they can hurt him 18-ft and in. He'll eventually score 2s better than those guys can score 2s against him, in other words.

Kaminsky is a completely different animal as a stretch 5 (and I assume stretch 4 in the NBA). It was terrifying every time Kaminsky got the ball because it looked like (1) he could pop a three at any time and Jah wouldn't be able to challenge, (2) he could drive Jah all day and draw fouls and complete 3-pt plays, or (3) Duke would have to over-help when Kaminsky drives and he could kick out for open threes. On an "expected points given up" basis, Kaminsky was a worse matchup than any 2-pt based post player.

All that said, I agree completely with you that Towns is a better fit for where the NBA is these days and where it's continuing to evolve. It's better to have the combination of excellent rim protection and rim-running (for pick-and-rolls) than back-to-basket skills. I would take Towns #1 as well. Just saying that Kaminsky really is an awful, awful matchup for him.


I totally agree; however, I seem to recall similar discussions about Laettner and Shaq. In their two games, head-to-head, Shaq had a horrible time with Laettner. The problem was they were totally different types of players - as are Jah and Kaminsky - imo.
Another factor is that Kaminsky is a mature experienced senior who had been there before. Jah is a 19 year old freshman who is just beginning to scratch the surface of his ability.
The NBA is a different animal and I have found it difficult to predict who would or would not be successful there. I am going to go out on a limb here and venture that Jah won't have to wait too long before his name is called.

GGLC
04-08-2015, 02:51 PM
If I were an NBA GM with the #1 pick and roughly equivalent needs at each position, I have to admit that I'd strongly consider taking either Towns or Justise ahead of Okafor. In the modern NBA, a post player like Jah who is not really a shooter and not really a rim protector simply has limited ability to change the fortunes of a franchise even if his offensive post skills are historically elite, because you really need to pair him with the right frontcourt mate (someone like Bosh or Ibaka who can space the court on offense and protect the rim on defense, and they don't grow on trees) in order to maximize his value to the team. I've seen and broadly agree with projections for Jah as most likely ending up a rich man's Al Jefferson -- which is extremely valuable, but which is not going to have the kind of Anthony Davis/Tim Duncan type impact on your team that makes him extremely easy to build around.

I'd probably take Jah before Russell, though.

mkirsh
04-08-2015, 03:13 PM
Towns and Okafor are close, but I think everyone is suffering from recency effect - our last image of Towns is single handedly carrying UK against Notre Dame and putting up a solid 16 and 9 against Wisconsin. The last people saw of Okafor was struggling to stay on the floor against Wisconsin. People forget that Okafor shredded the same Notre Dame team a few weeks back and that his Wisconsin stats on a per minute basis aren't as far off (and had 2-3 layups that he missed that he had been making all year). Stat comparison is linked below; on the year Okafor was a better offensive player in all regards with the exception of free throw shooting; Towns seemingly the better defender (which doesn't really show up in stats other than his superior defensive rebounding percentage). I also think Okafor's rebounding numbers are a little misleading - as teams game planned to attack him in pick and roll, he spent more time guarding high ball screens and farther from the basket and out of rebounding position. His O-rebounding, where he is stationed in the paint, was a lot better so I think he'll rebound fine on the next level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=jahlil-okafor&p1=karl-anthony-towns

Troublemaker
04-08-2015, 03:28 PM
On the assumption that we're not going to have a separate thread for each of our four freshmen, I'm posting this Keeley article in this thread: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article17869007.html

It discusses the draft decisions. Grayson confirms that he'll back.

As for Tyus:

"Every basketball player’s dream is to go to the NBA. And that’s what you work hard for all year. I mean, all your life, really," Jones said Wednesday. "So to be able to have to make a decision about that, it’s a good spot to be in."

Jones was asked point-blank how much the decision of Winslow and Okafor will impact his own.

"It will impact it," Jones said.

Troublemaker
04-08-2015, 03:34 PM
I first saw the "they should take Towns" meme in an article from a NY paper. The whole thing was almost entirely based on the opinion of Towns's AAU coach. (Shocker that after careful consideration, he thinks Towns is the better pick.) Then, slowly a few talking heads started repeating it. I mean, folks are entitled to their opinions, but part of me wonders about the behind the scenes jockeying that starts to take place... While I'm sure K would love to point to Okafor as a #1 pick, I do think that sort of thing means more to Calipari and UK. Calipari has repeatedly said that he doesn't measure his program in terms of wins or titles, but more in terms of getting his players to the NBA and where he gets his guys drafted. Nothing wrong with that, but I sorta wonder if World Wide Wes et al. start more extensive lobbying efforts than we realize...

The big 3 nba draft sites -- Chad Ford, DraftExpress, NbaDraft.net -- all have Towns ahead of Okafor now. I think this is a real thing, but maybe individual workouts flip them back again.

(Incidentally, if anyone knows another draft site that deserves mention, let me know. Always looking out. Thanks.)

FerryFor50
04-08-2015, 03:42 PM
The big 3 nba draft sites -- Chad Ford, DraftExpress, NbaDraft.net -- all have Towns ahead of Okafor now. I think this is a real thing, but maybe individual workouts flip them back again.

(Incidentally, if anyone knows another draft site that deserves mention, let me know. Always looking out. Thanks.)

I think NBA teams weigh potential just as heavily as results. With Okafor, I don't get a sense of "potential" because he's already so polished. But I know he will improve. He's young and a sponge.

However, his athleticism will be a question. He doesn't seem to be very explosive. He doesn't seem to jump super high, nor is he exceptionally fast. He's very agile and has great footwork, as well as huge hands/wingspan. But in the NBA, how will his post offense translate against players that are long and athletic/strong? We saw how much he struggled against Utah, Gonzaga and Wisconsin's large front lines. What's someone like DeAndre Jordan going to do to Okafor?

I think teams are higher on Towns because he's more athletic and can shoot outside. Better defender, both one on one and help defense. More explosive. Doesn't have the post moves that Jah has, but can still score.

Either way, I don't think teams can go wrong with either and there isn't a ton of salary difference between #1 and #2 picks (around 500k per year, which isn't something to sneeze at, but at 4 million, doesn't hurt a lot).

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-salaries/nba-rookie-salary-scale-by-draft-year/

devildeac
04-08-2015, 03:51 PM
K said Kaminsky was like Laettner and thus a really tough matchup.

Further evidence that folks from the land of the missing D and E need a t-shirt that says "I still Hate Kaminsky.":rolleyes:

Maybe the Wisconsin fans could get in on the act, too, and get shirts printed that say "I hate Tyus Jones AND Grayson Allen." Capitalize on the ongoing Duke hatred tsunami:rolleyes:.

MChambers
04-08-2015, 04:24 PM
On the assumption that we're not going to have a separate thread for each of our four freshmen, I'm posting this Keeley article in this thread: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article17869007.html

It discusses the draft decisions. Grayson confirms that he'll back.

As for Tyus:

"Every basketball player’s dream is to go to the NBA. And that’s what you work hard for all year. I mean, all your life, really," Jones said Wednesday. "So to be able to have to make a decision about that, it’s a good spot to be in."

Jones was asked point-blank how much the decision of Winslow and Okafor will impact his own.

"It will impact it," Jones said.



So there's a chance all three of them will be back. That's great!

tux
04-08-2015, 04:27 PM
The big 3 nba draft sites -- Chad Ford, DraftExpress, NbaDraft.net -- all have Towns ahead of Okafor now. I think this is a real thing, but maybe individual workouts flip them back again.

(Incidentally, if anyone knows another draft site that deserves mention, let me know. Always looking out. Thanks.)

I didn't mean to suggest that it wasn't real. Just commenting on the origins of the story as I remember it...

I would think NBA scouts and GMs would be immune to most outside opinions, but...

Maybe I should pose it as a question: Do you guys think there's a lot of lobbying for these kids among college coaches and the various people around the programs?

Skitzle
04-08-2015, 04:32 PM
I didn't mean to suggest that it wasn't real. Just commenting on the origins of the story as I remember it...

I would think NBA scouts and GMs would be immune to most outside opinions, but...

Maybe I should pose it as a question: Do you guys think there's a lot of lobbying for these kids among college coaches and the various people around the programs?

GMS can get effected by outside influences. Like Owners. Stauskas?

Start at 5 min in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yxJHKpB_Kc&list=UUwLr_DYKR8aS0k4r8bB5I5Q&index=2

FireOgilvie
04-08-2015, 04:33 PM
On the assumption that we're not going to have a separate thread for each of our four freshmen, I'm posting this Keeley article in this thread: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article17869007.html

It discusses the draft decisions. Grayson confirms that he'll back.

As for Tyus:

"Every basketball player’s dream is to go to the NBA. And that’s what you work hard for all year. I mean, all your life, really," Jones said Wednesday. "So to be able to have to make a decision about that, it’s a good spot to be in."

Jones was asked point-blank how much the decision of Winslow and Okafor will impact his own.

"It will impact it," Jones said.



I've been thinking Tyus will go pro because 1) his best friends are going pro and 2) he just won a title and MOP. I would do the same thing. Also, his draft stock is unlikely to go dramatically higher than it is right now; he'll go around 20 or so because of his lack of NBA size and "elite" athleticism.

IMO, Justise will likely go between 5-7, although I might take him at 4. He developed into a great shooter by the end of the season (and shot 41% from 3 for the year) and I think he has incredible potential.

Something to think about - Okafor was previously measured as the exact same height, wingspan, and weight as DeMarcus Cousins (at Kentucky), although Cousins has 2 inches on standing reach. I'm really interested in what Okafor's measured vertical numbers will be (not sure if we'll get those). Cousins' numbers weren't particularly amazing though. Interesting comparison. Towns versus Okafor - I'm not sure who I'd take. I don't think either one is a franchise-defining player that gets you a lot of wins. Towns is probably the safer bet due to his defense.

flyingdutchdevil
04-08-2015, 04:33 PM
I didn't mean to suggest that it wasn't real. Just commenting on the origins of the story as I remember it...

I would think NBA scouts and GMs would be immune to most outside opinions, but...

Maybe I should pose it as a question: Do you guys think there's a lot of lobbying for these kids among college coaches and the various people around the programs?

But it's the NBA scouts and GMs that lead to the "outside opinions", especially that of Chad Ford. Before Ford put Towns as #1, he talked with at least ten NBA front offices who reiterated this point of view. The Towns hype is real.

ACCBBallFan
04-08-2015, 04:33 PM
...

Either way, I don't think teams can go wrong with either and there isn't a ton of salary difference between #1 and #2 picks (around 500k per year, which isn't something to sneeze at, but at 4 million, doesn't hurt a lot).

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-salaries/nba-rookie-salary-scale-by-draft-year/

With next year being such a weak class, Okafor would be looking at 10% more $$ in year one of next year as the #1 pick ($4,753,000) than in year 2 on this year as the #2 pick ($4,293,700) and another $488,000 more the following year.

Of course you never make up for the $4,108,800 that is foregone, plus have the risk of an injury affecting his future draft stock.

So a no-brainer from an economic standpoint, and just a case of how much Chucky wants to remain the #1 Cameron Crazie from an emotional standpoint, plus big Jah closer to his degre, etc.

In Justise's case, the numbers are more compelling if for example he went from #6 this year to # 3 next year, forgoes $2,736,100 but gets an extra million per year each subsequent year, as opposed to half a million per year for big Jah. I did not attempt an interest rate assumption.

That Mickie D All Star game showed what a weak class the upcoming one is.

Rich
04-08-2015, 04:34 PM
So there's a chance all three of them will be back. That's great!

Yes, I am totally confident that all three will be back...as long as we're referring to Grayson Allen, Matt Jones, and Amille Jefferson. :rolleyes:

Duke95
04-08-2015, 04:40 PM
Towns is awesome from about 2 feet out, especially when he has 2 other trees as teammates.

FireOgilvie
04-08-2015, 04:46 PM
Another thing to consider if you're looking at Towns is that he was playing with a loaded roster of bigs that took a lot of the pressure off of him. He wasn't double-teamed or targeted to the same degree as Okafor. Not even close. However, Okafor's defense is a concern. He'll never be as quick or have Towns' ability to block shots. I think Okafor will fix the free throw shooting though.

tux
04-08-2015, 04:47 PM
But it's the NBA scouts and GMs that lead to the "outside opinions", especially that of Chad Ford. Before Ford put Towns as #1, he talked with at least ten NBA front offices who reiterated this point of view. The Towns hype is real.

Good point.

GGLC
04-08-2015, 04:50 PM
For what it's worth, Shaq never fixed his free throw shooting in nineteen NBA seasons.

johnb
04-08-2015, 05:00 PM
I've been assuming that Tyus won't go unless he is widely viewed as a lottery pick. Since no one was predicting him that high (and he's still seen as an end-of-the 1st round guy even now), I've assumed he'd stay. With a weak entering class, he'd be positioned to go substantially higher next year.

This latest quote (the decisions of Justise and Jah would affect his decision) is a little odd, imho. It would be rough to see your buddies move on while you stay behind, but it's not like they'd be on the same team next year. And his stock could take a tumble if he can't lead a team without a couple of potential NBA all stars, but I'm guessing he's confident enough that he'll get better over the next year or two.

Of course, it never occurred to me that Mike Dunleavy would go pro after a good tournament.

freshmanjs
04-08-2015, 05:02 PM
Of course, it never occurred to me that Mike Dunleavy would go pro after a good tournament.

He didn't.

Orange&BlackSheep
04-08-2015, 05:16 PM
He didn't.

I don't know what you mean by he didn't, but I assume we will find out shortly.

Side note, anyone notice how much Mike D is still contributing in the league this year? You put him on the right team, and his shooting is very valuable.

CDu
04-08-2015, 05:21 PM
You should be Kaminsky's agent ;)

He's not as good a shooter as Dirk (or even Laettner). He sorta pushes his longer shots. He's a great competitor and does a lot of things really well. I think he's a solid role player in the NBA. I mean, Tyler H. had just as great a senior season as Frank. Different players, but I see their NBA value being about the same... Great pick in the 10-20 range IMO.

While I don't think Kaminsky is the next Nowitzki, I think it is worth saying a couple of things:

1. He's not as good a shooter (yet) as Nowitzki is now, but he also hasn't been able to spend all his time working on the NBA three like he will be next year. And he's already a pretty good 3pt shooter. So I think he can get better.

2. I think the differences that you allude to between Frank and Hansbrough are significant in terms of pro prospects: he is a good bit taller/longer; he has better footwork; he handles the ball better; he passes better; he defends better; he shoots better.

Hansbrough was a bull in a china shop in college and dominated by racking up offensive rebounds and free throw attempts. He was an okay post player, but had no face-up game and a mediocre shot (aside from FTs). The strength of his game as an iso player was posting guys up and bullying to the rim to score and/or draw a foul. Basically, he was an undersized C whose strengths disappeared when he made the jump to the NBA (where he wasn't big enough to play his game at C and wasn't skilled or athletic enough to play PF).

Kaminsky, on the other hand, has a great face-up game, a good shooting touch (will likely improve as he has more time devoted solely to basketball), and can take his man off the dribble. I could certainly see him being another Ryan Anderson or Sam Perkins type of player. I don't see him having as low a ceiling as Hansbrough.

CDu
04-08-2015, 05:22 PM
I don't know what you mean by he didn't, but I assume we will find out shortly.

Side note, anyone notice how much Mike D is still contributing in the league this year? You put him on the right team, and his shooting is very valuable.

I think the point was that Dunleavy didn't leave after the 2001 championship run. He left in 2002 after a not-so-hot NCAA tournament.

KandG
04-08-2015, 05:29 PM
To chime in along with everyone else here, I have no issue with the general consensus shifting to Towns over Okafor given the way the modern NBA game is played, where the center position has increasingly become focused on defense. The piece that best summarizes this trend is by Jonathan Tjarks in an evaluation of Jah a few days ago:

http://patternofbasketball.blogspot.com/2015/04/good-centers-play-defense.html

I do think that people getting down on Jah based on the NCAA tournament and some of his subpar defensive metrics (especially block rate) is a classic case of arguments shifting too much to the other extreme. The best counterpoint I've seen made to these arguments has been made by David Thorpe, whose theory (one I'm sympathetic to) is that Jah was allowed to conserve his energy on defense by Coach K because he carried so much of the offense. We clearly saw that Jah's defense when he had to buckle down for a stop late in games was decent and improved over the course of the season.

https://twitter.com/coachthorpe/status/585540328226222080

Personally, I can't wait to see Jah operate with a little more space to do his thing on an NBA team. I just hope he lands in the right situation and is given time to develop. He has a ways to go, but I truly believe he is going to be a special and very versatile player at the next level, rather than the offense-only low post anachronism some haters have him projected to be.

tux
04-08-2015, 05:48 PM
I've been assuming that Tyus won't go unless he is widely viewed as a lottery pick. Since no one was predicting him that high (and he's still seen as an end-of-the 1st round guy even now), I've assumed he'd stay. With a weak entering class, he'd be positioned to go substantially higher next year.

This latest quote (the decisions of Justise and Jah would affect his decision) is a little odd, imho. It would be rough to see your buddies move on while you stay behind, but it's not like they'd be on the same team next year. And his stock could take a tumble if he can't lead a team without a couple of potential NBA all stars, but I'm guessing he's confident enough that he'll get better over the next year or two.

Of course, it never occurred to me that Mike Dunleavy would go pro after a good tournament.


Re: bolded part. I see it as the decision of Justise and Jah moving the needle, but maybe not a definitive "they go, I go" sort of thing. Obviously (or more than likely) Tyus would stay if they both stay. He's a little more likely to go if, say, Okafor leaves and Justice stays. And the needle moves a little more if they both go... I think, based on what I heard Capel say today, the staff will be gathering a lot of information for these guys over the next couple of days. It's an odd situation (IMO) in that everyone wants these guys to make informed decisions and do what's best for them; and, on the other hand, the staff is going to be out recruiting tomorrow, so time is tight with recruits probably wanting to know what the roster will be next season... (The great thing about winning the title, as a fan, is that I'm much less stressed about next year than I'd normally be...)

FireOgilvie
04-08-2015, 05:56 PM
To chime in along with everyone else here, I have no issue with the general consensus shifting to Towns over Okafor given the way the modern NBA game is played, where the center position has increasingly become focused on defense. The piece that best summarizes this trend is by Jonathan Tjarks in an evaluation of Jah a few days ago:

http://patternofbasketball.blogspot.com/2015/04/good-centers-play-defense.html

I do think that people getting down on Jah based on the NCAA tournament and some of his subpar defensive metrics (especially block rate) is a classic case of arguments shifting too much to the other extreme. The best counterpoint I've seen made to these arguments has been made by David Thorpe, whose theory (one I'm sympathetic to) is that Jah was allowed to conserve his energy on defense by Coach K because he carried so much of the offense. We clearly saw that Jah's defense when he had to buckle down for a stop late in games was decent and improved over the course of the season.

https://twitter.com/coachthorpe/status/585540328226222080

Personally, I can't wait to see Jah operate with a little more space to do his thing on an NBA team. I just hope he lands in the right situation and is given time to develop. He has a ways to go, but I truly believe he is going to be a special and very versatile player at the next level, rather than the offense-only low post anachronism some haters have him projected to be.

Totally agree with all of this.

I'm looking forward to seeing him throw his weight around a little bit more in the NBA. He had to play more of a finesse game a lot for us to avoid fouls. He gets an extra foul in the NBA, physical play is called differently down low, he probably won't be seeing as many double teams, and he'll be going up against guys more his own size. He really improved his mid-range game by the end of year; that will be huge for him on the next level.

NM Duke Fan
04-08-2015, 06:00 PM
While I don't think Kaminsky is the next Nowitzki, I think it is worth saying a couple of things:

1. He's not as good a shooter (yet) as Nowitzki is now, but he also hasn't been able to spend all his time working on the NBA three like he will be next year. And he's already a pretty good 3pt shooter. So I think he can get better.

2. I think the differences that you allude to between Frank and Hansbrough are significant in terms of pro prospects: he is a good bit taller/longer; he has better footwork; he handles the ball better; he passes better; he defends better; he shoots better.

Hansbrough was a bull in a china shop in college and dominated by racking up offensive rebounds and free throw attempts. He was an okay post player, but had no face-up game and a mediocre shot (aside from FTs). The strength of his game as an iso player was posting guys up and bullying to the rim to score and/or draw a foul. Basically, he was an undersized C whose strengths disappeared when he made the jump to the NBA (where he wasn't big enough to play his game at C and wasn't skilled or athletic enough to play PF).

Kaminsky, on the other hand, has a great face-up game, a good shooting touch (will likely improve as he has more time devoted solely to basketball), and can take his man off the dribble. I could certainly see him being another Ryan Anderson or Sam Perkins type of player. I don't see him having as low a ceiling as Hansbrough.

I completely agree with this. The comparison to Tyler just does not work. I personally think Kaminsky is under-rated even by some scouts. He is an all around player, already good at many different things and an extremely hard worker.

BD80
04-08-2015, 06:10 PM
Especially when Kaminsky went for 20 and 11 against Towns, too.

Compared to 21, 12 and 2 against Duke (not all against Jah).


I think the bigger argument made there was that Towns still got his (16 and 9 on 7-11 FG shooting) whereas Okafor didn't (10 points and 3 rebounds on 5-9 shooting)... .

Frank played 37 min against Ky and 39 against Duke

Towns played 31 min and Jah played 22 min.

Not really apples to apples

tux
04-08-2015, 06:12 PM
I completely agree with this. The comparison to Tyler just does not work. I personally think Kaminsky is under-rated even by some scouts. He is an all around player, already good at many different things and an extremely hard worker.

Okay. I didn't say their games were similar. My post says "Different players, but..."

But I sense that some folks are actually overrating Kaminsky based on recency bias and the narrative much like Tyler in 09. He's a very good player and should have a nice career, but I see his overall value/potential being at about the same level. We can just agree to disagree.

NSDukeFan
04-08-2015, 06:20 PM
I know this is about oak.but just for the sake of it .did Kaminskys stock drop because of amiles wonderful job guarding him? I mean there are quicker and stronger guys in the nba.I believe that they will go as they would have before the tournament. My only question is do we lose two or three Early.

I picked Cleanthony in the mock draft last year and don't think he has any brothers playing, so I don't think we lose anymore Early. I find myself hilarious. (;

I can't imagine Jahlil not going number one. I remember how much I laughed this year at how ridiculously talented he was, how great his footwork is, how nobody could guard him. He didn't have the greatest tournament and missed a few bunnies against Frank in this matchup (off great moves), but he remained a very good passer, showed great ball handling for a guy his size and became a solid defender and decent rim protector at the end of the year. He also had no trouble defending any bigs inside one-on-one. I hope he stays to get better, but I can't imagine someone that talented not going number one.

Dukehky
04-08-2015, 07:35 PM
I picked Cleanthony in the mock draft last year and don't think he has any brothers playing, so I don't think we lose anymore Early. I find myself hilarious. (;

I can't imagine Jahlil not going number one. I remember how much I laughed this year at how ridiculously talented he was, how great his footwork is, how nobody could guard him. He didn't have the greatest tournament and missed a few bunnies against Frank in this matchup (off great moves), but he remained a very good passer, showed great ball handling for a guy his size and became a solid defender and decent rim protector at the end of the year. He also had no trouble defending any bigs inside one-on-one. I hope he stays to get better, but I can't imagine someone that talented not going number one.

ESPN is pushing this narrative because they cover the draft and want it to be more intriguing so people will watch. Towns or Okafor? Okafor or Towns? Jahlil ate Kaminsky on the block earlier in the year, and he would have had 16-18 if he finished the shots that he makes 90 % of the time. And his on ball, man to man post defense is not a weakness, it is at worst average. Did he do a good job staying in front of a stretch 5 (a stretch 4 in the league)? he got toasted a few times, but I thought he was okay on defense, it was the rebounding that is the most concerning thing.

I would take Okafor over towns any day of the week. He's a better scorer and a better passer. The league is all about offense, and his defense can improve, as can his conditioning. I'm not saying Jah is going to be Duke's first hall of fame player, but he has as good a shot as anyone ever has.

That being said, if he wanted to come back, I'd be cool with that too.

Duke95
04-08-2015, 07:47 PM
ESPN is pushing this narrative because they cover the draft and want it to be more intriguing so people will watch. Towns or Okafor? Okafor or Towns? Jahlil ate Kaminsky on the block earlier in the year, and he would have had 16-18 if he finished the shots that he makes 90 % of the time. And his on ball, man to man post defense is not a weakness, it is at worst average. Did he do a good job staying in front of a stretch 5 (a stretch 4 in the league)? he got toasted a few times, but I thought he was okay on defense, it was the rebounding that is the most concerning thing.

I would take Okafor over towns any day of the week. He's a better scorer and a better passer. The league is all about offense, and his defense can improve, as can his conditioning. I'm not saying Jah is going to be Duke's first hall of fame player, but he has as good a shot as anyone ever has.

That being said, if he wanted to come back, I'd be cool with that too.

Yep, agreed. I'll say that I obviously have not watched UK as much as Duke this year, but in the games I have watched, I've seen that Towns has benefited from the fact that he can bully opposing players without much fear of a double team because he had Lyles and Stein.

Jah is far more polished an offensive player than Towns. Sure, it's early, but his game is so much like Duncan's, it's uncanny.

Duvall
04-08-2015, 07:51 PM
Jah is far more polished an offensive player than Towns. Sure, it's early, but his game is so much like Duncan's, it's uncanny.

Being offensively polished at a young age actually makes Okafor nothing at all like Duncan.

gurufrisbee
04-08-2015, 08:06 PM
I know everyone says the money is only thing that matters and that's why these guys are all gone.

I just want to point out:

* Tyus and Jahlil wanted to come to Duke to play together. This is the ONLY time and the ONLY place where they can continue to do that (and Justise wanted to come play with them here, too).
* They will NEVER get to play for a coach this good again. Likely, not even remotely close.
* They are getting a great education totally paid for (and Tyus and Justise were all academic team picks, so clearly there is some real interest in education).
* There ARE still team goals they could play next year for (conference title, conference tourney title, repeat Final Four, repeat champion)
* There ARE still individual goals they could play next year for (Jahlil for National POY and Tyus and Justise basically got none in the regular season and Tyus got the couple MOPs in the tournament)
* They clearly LIKE playing together (brothers).
* Getting injured is NOT the end of your NBA dreams. Look at Embid. And Noel. And Irving. The fear over that is WAY overblown.

All that said, I fully expect all three to leave. I just know they have good reasons to come back, too.

dukelifer
04-08-2015, 08:12 PM
I know everyone says the money is only thing that matters and that's why these guys are all gone.

I just want to point out:

* Tyus and Jahlil wanted to come to Duke to play together. This is the ONLY time and the ONLY place where they can continue to do that (and Justise wanted to come play with them here, too).
* They will NEVER get to play for a coach this good again. Likely, not even remotely close.
* They are getting a great education totally paid for (and Tyus and Justise were all academic team picks, so clearly there is some real interest in education).
* There ARE still team goals they could play next year for (conference title, conference tourney title, repeat Final Four, repeat champion)
* There ARE still individual goals they could play next year for (Jahlil for National POY and Tyus and Justise basically got none in the regular season and Tyus got the couple MOPs in the tournament)
* They clearly LIKE playing together (brothers).
* Getting injured is NOT the end of your NBA dreams. Look at Embid. And Noel. And Irving. The fear over that is WAY overblown.

All that said, I fully expect all three to leave. I just know they have good reasons to come back, too.

Hard to imagine but if they all returned- they might be among the most loved Duke teams of all time. Repeating is so hard though. But it is fun to think about.

ACCBBallFan
04-08-2015, 09:17 PM
As with the recruiting process, all 3 frosh have family members working with them on the decision, not money grubbing handlers.

My personal opinion is that big Jah and Justise go, and Tyus stays, but who knows.

Clearly both Jah and Justise each have things they could improve on with another year of college play, but that is true of all NBA prospects.

Eternal Outlaw
04-08-2015, 09:42 PM
With next year being such a weak class, Okafor would be looking at 10% more $$ in year one of next year as the #1 pick ($4,753,000) than in year 2 on this year as the #2 pick ($4,293,700) and another $488,000 more the following year.

Of course you never make up for the $4,108,800 that is foregone, plus have the risk of an injury affecting his future draft stock.

So a no-brainer from an economic standpoint, and just a case of how much Chucky wants to remain the #1 Cameron Crazie from an emotional standpoint, plus big Jah closer to his degre, etc.

In Justise's case, the numbers are more compelling if for example he went from #6 this year to # 3 next year, forgoes $2,736,100 but gets an extra million per year each subsequent year, as opposed to half a million per year for big Jah. I did not attempt an interest rate assumption.

That Mickie D All Star game showed what a weak class the upcoming one is.

Isn't the salary cap supposed to shoot up in 2016? Does that affect the rookie scale where a 2016 rookie is going to make a ton more than the 2015 rookie at that same spot or does the rookie scale stay the same?

Neals384
04-08-2015, 09:43 PM
Today on ESPN Radio, Coach K said Jah is going to be "special" in the NBA [when he goes]...the way he said it left no doubt that he believes, in time, Jah will be a very big success in the NBA.

Coach K also said it would be great if Jah finds a mentor in the NBA as good as Anthony Davis has in New Orleans. And that Davis' relationship with the Pelicans coach (sorry I didn't catch the name) went far beyond player-coach.

My interpretation of his comments is that it was a very nice way to say that Jah is not ready as a man or player for the NBA, and if he goes, coach hopes Jah gets lucky and finds a strong mentor with whatever team selects him. (Or stays at Duke where he already has the best mentor there is!) But I'm reading between the lines here and that may not have been the message at all.

awhom111
04-08-2015, 09:43 PM
Wonder if Billy Donovan will give Tyus and Justise a call to convince them to stay. "Hey guys, I don't want to have to find two new starters for the U19 team this summer and I want to try an all Duke lineup."

Of course if Donovan leaves for the NBA himself that changes things. I wonder who would take over at that point. Smart is probably too busy in Austin and Cooley probably would not be considered as having the credentials. Miller or Bennett would probably be the choice and I doubt Tony would call Tyus and Justise to tell them to come back.

awhom111
04-08-2015, 09:44 PM
Isn't the salary cap supposed to shoot up in 2016? Does that affect the rookie scale where a 2016 rookie is going to make a ton more than the 2015 rookie at that same spot or does the rookie scale stay the same?

The rookie scale stays the same until the next CBA negotiations.

cato
04-08-2015, 09:50 PM
I know everyone says the money is only thing that matters and that's why these guys are all gone.

I just want to point out:

* Tyus and Jahlil wanted to come to Duke to play together. This is the ONLY time and the ONLY place where they can continue to do that (and Justise wanted to come play with them here, too).
* They will NEVER get to play for a coach this good again. Likely, not even remotely close.
* They are getting a great education totally paid for (and Tyus and Justise were all academic team picks, so clearly there is some real interest in education).
* There ARE still team goals they could play next year for (conference title, conference tourney title, repeat Final Four, repeat champion)
* There ARE still individual goals they could play next year for (Jahlil for National POY and Tyus and Justise basically got none in the regular season and Tyus got the couple MOPs in the tournament)
* They clearly LIKE playing together (brothers).
* Getting injured is NOT the end of your NBA dreams. Look at Embid. And Noel. And Irving. The fear over that is WAY overblown.

All that said, I fully expect all three to leave. I just know they have good reasons to come back, too.

Who says money is the only thing? However, it would be irresponsible not to consider the impact on lifetime earnings. The amount of money is significant, and cannot be replaced easily.

It's easy to downplay the very real financial risk of electing to forgo a high lottery pick on the Internet. Probably a lot harder when you have some of the most respected people in basketball giving you advice on what would be best for you.

Also, don't forget that these kids all are dying to play in the NBA. Duke is great. The NBA is the pinnacle.

crf30
04-08-2015, 10:03 PM
http://blog.chron.com/sportsupdate/2015/04/rickie-winslow-on-sons-decision-to-enter-2015-nba-draft-thats-all-on-justise/#31706101=0

To me it seems like the consensus is this team won because of how closely knit they were. And I can't imagine they won't feel their heart telling them to come back. Of course, the head will tell them to take the money, as it should.

freshmanjs
04-08-2015, 11:33 PM
I don't know what you mean by he didn't, but I assume we will find out shortly.

Side note, anyone notice how much Mike D is still contributing in the league this year? You put him on the right team, and his shooting is very valuable.


I think the point was that Dunleavy didn't leave after the 2001 championship run. He left in 2002 after a not-so-hot NCAA tournament.

Yes, CDu, that's what I meant.

DUKIE V(A)
04-08-2015, 11:55 PM
Point: Jahlil Okafor wasn't even playing in the last part of a close national championship game.
Counterpoint: Well, neither was Karl-Anthony Towns.

LOL

Counterpoint 2: In an "off" game, Jah still scored 10 points in just 22 minutes of play including 4 in the last 3 minutes to push the lead from 1 to 5 while shutting down Frankie K on the other end in a critical possession that ended in a shot clock violation.

Olympic Fan
04-09-2015, 12:04 AM
Just one comment. I saw the videotape of Tyus' interview today and I think some are misunderstanding what he said.

He did say that the decision of his two friends would impact his decision, but he quickly followed that statement with a very strong, "Of course, we'll all make our own choices."

I honestly do not think what he said today hinted at his decision -- either way. He still may go -- I'm not trying to raise false hope -- but I've talked to too many people who seem to think that he tied his decision to the choices Jahlil and Justise will make. I did not get that from what I saw.

sagegrouse
04-09-2015, 12:29 AM
Just one comment. I saw the videotape of Tyus' interview today and I think some are misunderstanding what he said.

He did say that the decision of his two friends would impact his decision, but he quickly followed that statement with a very strong, "Of course, we'll all make our own choices."

I honestly do not think what he said today hinted at his decision -- either way. He still may go -- I'm not trying to raise false hope -- but I've talked to too many people who seem to think that he tied his decision to the choices Jahlil and Justise will make. I did not get that from what I saw.

OF: Here's how I interpreted Tyus's comment. "If Jah and Justise come back, of course that would affect my decision." That's the only opportunity for the three teammates to play together next season. Not a very good chance of that happening, is it?

NashvilleDevil
04-09-2015, 01:14 AM
Today on ESPN Radio, Coach K said Jah is going to be "special" in the NBA [when he goes]...the way he said it left no doubt that he believes, in time, Jah will be a very big success in the NBA.

Coach K also said it would be great if Jah finds a mentor in the NBA as good as Anthony Davis has in New Orleans. And that Davis' relationship with the Pelicans coach (sorry I didn't catch the name) went far beyond player-coach.

My interpretation of his comments is that it was a very nice way to say that Jah is not ready as a man or player for the NBA, and if he goes, coach hopes Jah gets lucky and finds a strong mentor with whatever team selects him. (Or stays at Duke where he already has the best mentor there is!) But I'm reading between the lines here and that may not have been the message at all.

I think you're reading WAY to much into that comment. K has always said Jah was only going to be at Duke for a year. Jah is ready and I think he will be a really good NBA player.

subzero02
04-09-2015, 02:15 AM
The rookie scale stays the same until the next CBA negotiations.

It looks like the CBA could be renegotiated as early as 2017 "if necessary"... at least according to Wikipedia. I had gotten the impression that there was a shorter timeline based on the media discussion.

g-money
04-09-2015, 02:18 AM
As for Tyus:

"Every basketball player’s dream is to go to the NBA. And that’s what you work hard for all year. I mean, all your life, really," Jones said Wednesday. "So to be able to have to make a decision about that, it’s a good spot to be in."

Jones was asked point-blank how much the decision of Winslow and Okafor will impact his own.

"It will impact it," Jones said.



I hate to say it, but this may be the right time for Tyus to go. While he would certainly improve tremendously through another year with K, it's hard to imagine his draft stock going any higher than it is now. Unless he grows 2-3 inches (highly unlikely) or puts on 15 lbs of muscle (somewhat unlikely), that is.

The great thing about waiting for this year's announcements is that our guys leave behind no unfinished business. Tyus, in particular, was such a bad-ss for us this year in virtually every big game.* Consequently, no matter what he decides, I think we should all wish him well.

* Which leads me to wonder: Do NBA scouts evaluate "the clutch gene"? On the list of clutchest Duke players ever, I would rate Tyus Stones just behind Laettner and ahead of guys like Irving and Battier.

jv001
04-09-2015, 07:54 AM
I hate to say it, but this may be the right time for Tyus to go. While he would certainly improve tremendously through another year with K, it's hard to imagine his draft stock going any higher than it is now. Unless he grows 2-3 inches (highly unlikely) or puts on 15 lbs of muscle (somewhat unlikely), that is.

The great thing about waiting for this year's announcements is that our guys leave behind no unfinished business. Tyus, in particular, was such a bad-ss for us this year in virtually every big game.* Consequently, no matter what he decides, I think we should all wish him well.

* Which leads me to wonder: Do NBA scouts evaluate "the clutch gene"? On the list of clutchest Duke players ever, I would rate Tyus Stones just behind Laettner and ahead of guys like Irving and Battier.

Where does Jay Williams stand on the list of Duke clutchest(word?) players? My list: 1) Christian. 2) Shane. 3) Jay. 4) Hurley. 5) Grant. 6) Tyus?

bjornolf
04-09-2015, 08:08 AM
Where does Jay Williams stand on the list of Duke clutchest(word?) players? My list: 1) Christian. 2) Shane. 3) Jay. 4) Hurley. 5) Grant. 6) Tyus?

Tyus' resume is too short at this point, but he could still move up!

langdonfan
04-09-2015, 08:24 AM
Can someone explain to me this notion that Jones could not return and improve his draft stock? I have read this a number of times but as far as I can tell he's thought of as a middle to later first round pick. IF he came back and IF he showed himself to be the top overall point guard prospect in the 2016 draft, he wouldn't be a top ten pick? This seems to imply that there will never be another highly drafted point guard. If Tyus returns, he'll be the face of college basketball and could be the National Player of the Year and a household name by the end of next season. Chris Paul? Steph Curry? Michael Conley? All similar sized guards who went very high in the draft in recent years. Heck, Jason Williams was 6-2, 195 and went #2 overall. Is there something about Tyus' skill set that is concerning? I could certainly see his stock staying the same if he does not improve, but we could say that about anyone. Thoughts?

dukelifer
04-09-2015, 08:31 AM
I am absolutely beside myself after hearing numerous pundits say that they believe that Jah's draft status dropped due to his performance in the championship game. They talk about his poor defense on Kaminsky, especially on the perimeter, lack of rebounds, lack of finishing some chippies, and poor free throw shooting (he was 0 for 1). I've also heard one mention the play where Kaminsky stripped Jah in the paint when he was making a post move as an example of him not being strong with the ball. Are you kidding me?

Clearly this was not Jah's best game, but have these talking heads seen him play at all this season? Certainly he has defensive and free throw shooting liabilities, but that's not news. How can his performance in this one game negate his dominant performances all season? Look, he's going to be top 3, I get that. But to say that someone like Karl Anthony Towns has jumped Jah solely because of his performance in the championship game is frustrating and completely absurd, IMHO.
I doubt it is because of one game. All players have their flaws. Jah certainly has much to do to become an elite player at the next level. He was physically more dominant than most college players. He will not have that advantage in the pros. Towns can shoot a bit better from distance, hit free throws above 75% and is a better leaper. I can see why folks are high on him. Jah is much more skilled around the hoop. In many ways Jah would be better off not being the number 1 pick. That brings its own unwanted pressure. He will be fine.

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 08:39 AM
Can someone explain to me this notion that Jones could not return and improve his draft stock? I have read this a number of times but as far as I can tell he's thought of as a middle to later first round pick. IF he came back and IF he showed himself to be the top overall point guard prospect in the 2016 draft, he wouldn't be a top ten pick? This seems to imply that there will never be another highly drafted point guard. If Tyus returns, he'll be the face of college basketball and could be the National Player of the Year and a household name by the end of next season. Chris Paul? Steph Curry? Michael Conley? All similar sized guards who went very high in the draft in recent years. Heck, Jason Williams was 6-2, 195 and went #2 overall. Is there something about Tyus' skill set that is concerning? I could certainly see his stock staying the same if he does not improve, but we could say that about anyone. Thoughts?

Tyus's stock as 1) a passer, 2) a clutch shooter, 3) a 3pt shooter, and 4) basketball IQ are already incredibly high. They most certainly could get higher. Chad Ford has said time and time again that the analytics guys looooove Tyus. If Daryl Morey had a late lottery pick, I wouldn't be surprised to see him draft Tyus.

However, this stock is lower due to his a) size, b) athleticism, and c) defensive potential. As for size, he's on the short side of 6'1", and he can't do anything about that. We could bulk up and be more Chris Paul-esque, but that will have a lot of time. As for athleticism, it's very, very tough to build. He's very going to be a Derrick Rose, and he is never going to be a leaper.

I have zero problems with Tyus's decision if he declares for the draft. He came in with two missions: win a natty and get to the NBA. He can easily achieve both. Obviously, I want him to come back, but there is a lot of risk, especially given how next year's team is insanely different than this year's team (and less talent isn't always a good thing for a top dog to shine. Paulus was really good as a freshman, and a lot of that was being the 4th option who could rack up 15 assists with players like JJ and Shelden. As a sophomore, he got exposed).

GGLC
04-09-2015, 10:10 AM
Where does Jay Williams stand on the list of Duke clutchest(word?) players? My list: 1) Christian. 2) Shane. 3) Jay. 4) Hurley. 5) Grant. 6) Tyus?

A top three clutch player would have hit those free throws against Indiana. :)

(Too soon?)

MCFinARL
04-09-2015, 10:20 AM
Tyus's stock as 1) a passer, 2) a clutch shooter, 3) a 3pt shooter, and 4) basketball IQ are already incredibly high. They most certainly could get higher. Chad Ford has said time and time again that the analytics guys looooove Tyus. If Daryl Morey had a late lottery pick, I wouldn't be surprised to see him draft Tyus.

However, this stock is lower due to his a) size, b) athleticism, and c) defensive potential. As for size, he's on the short side of 6'1", and he can't do anything about that. We could bulk up and be more Chris Paul-esque, but that will have a lot of time. As for athleticism, it's very, very tough to build. He's very going to be a Derrick Rose, and he is never going to be a leaper.

I have zero problems with Tyus's decision if he declares for the draft. He came in with two missions: win a natty and get to the NBA. He can easily achieve both. Obviously, I want him to come back, but there is a lot of risk, especially given how next year's team is insanely different than this year's team (and less talent isn't always a good thing for a top dog to shine. Paulus was really good as a freshman, and a lot of that was being the 4th option who could rack up 15 assists with players like JJ and Shelden. As a sophomore, he got exposed).

This seems like a thorough analysis. The one thing the "go now" people don't seem to take into account, though, is the issue of who else is in each year's draft. The thought is that next year's freshmen are not nearly as good as this year's, thus less likely to be high-level one and done draft picks. If it looks like a lot of people, and particularly a lot of point guards who may be physically more imposing than Tyus, will go this year, pushing Tyus down, it might change his calculations a bit.

But you are right, of course, that there is risk--risk of injury always in addition to risk that next year's team won't click the way this year's does. Without a former point guard like Quinn in the backcourt, Tyus would be even more vital on next year's team than on this year's (if that's possible). But he might not have the uncanny communication with the people he is passing to that made this year's team so fluid and exciting.

Skitzle
04-09-2015, 10:21 AM
Tyus's stock as 1) a passer, 2) a clutch shooter, 3) a 3pt shooter, and 4) basketball IQ are already incredibly high. They most certainly could get higher. Chad Ford has said time and time again that the analytics guys looooove Tyus. If Daryl Morey had a late lottery pick, I wouldn't be surprised to see him draft Tyus.

However, this stock is lower due to his a) size, b) athleticism, and c) defensive potential. As for size, he's on the short side of 6'1", and he can't do anything about that. We could bulk up and be more Chris Paul-esque, but that will have a lot of time. As for athleticism, it's very, very tough to build. He's very going to be a Derrick Rose, and he is never going to be a leaper.

I have zero problems with Tyus's decision if he declares for the draft. He came in with two missions: win a natty and get to the NBA. He can easily achieve both. Obviously, I want him to come back, but there is a lot of risk, especially given how next year's team is insanely different than this year's team (and less talent isn't always a good thing for a top dog to shine. Paulus was really good as a freshman, and a lot of that was being the 4th option who could rack up 15 assists with players like JJ and Shelden. As a sophomore, he got exposed).

Great Points.

From a monetary standpoint: Let's say he can get himself from a 17-25 pick to the 10th pick

AVG. 3 year earnings for 15-25 Pick is 3.6 Million with avg 4th year at 1.5 million (estimated) so total earnings through 2019 NBA Season is 5.1 Million

If he waits another year and goes at 10 the salary for the 3 year life of the contract is 6.2 Million.

If he goes 5-10 avg salary is 7.6 million

So he could potential make an extra 2.5 Million over 4 years (1.25 after tax) if he stays another year and improves his stock to the 10th pick.

If he gets hurt, if he can't improve, if he stays a 17-25th pick, its a bad bet.


In a perfect scenario Tyus comes back and,

1) Score 20+ points a game for a winning team as the primary scorer and ball handler and focus of the defense
2) Shoot lights out from the floor and behind the arc think 45-50% 2pts and 40-45% 3pts
3) Stop EVERY point guard in every game he plays and shows he is a defense STUD.

He would be the CLEAR NPOY candidate.

This would make him a top 10 pick not the 10th pick.

His decision is really hard.

Would you rather have guaranteed 1million dollars now, or the potential of an extra 1million dollars in 4 years after you're already a millionaire

_Gary
04-09-2015, 10:33 AM
My two cents:

1) Jah goes #1. Any team that takes anyone above him will regret it. Period!

2) Justise is certainly gone as well. Not sure exactly where he goes, but he should easily be a top 10 guy and I don't see him increasing his stock by staying.

3) Tyus. As much as I want him to stay, and will be delighted if he does, I think he goes and I think it's the right decision. That first contract in the NBA is pretty darned important and we all know that more often than not the League drafts on potential more so than anything else. Tyus has been absolute gangbusters for us this year and I just don't see his stock rising any higher. If he stays he's almost assuredly going to be on a team that won't be as good as this year's team. He won't have Jah and Justise to play with and that decreases his opportunities for assists. And when you become "the guy", as opposed to just one of "the guys", it's almost never as easy to do what he's done this year. I just don't see much upside in him staying instead of going. I hate to say that. But it seems pretty darned obvious to me. The iron is hottest right now for Tyus - he goes unless he's told he'd fall to the 2nd round.

Duke95
04-09-2015, 10:36 AM
I think:

1. Jah Okafor
5. Justise Winslow
20. Tyus Jones

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 10:58 AM
I think:

1. Jah Okafor
5. Justise Winslow
20. Tyus Jones

I think the Oak goes 2. Other than that, completely agree on the other two. 20 is a great spot for Tyus. Wouldn't be surprised to see Justise go 3 or 4 either, but Mudiay and Russell are legit talents.

GGLC
04-09-2015, 11:14 AM
Justise's placement in the top 5 will depend on team need after the lottery is held. And I think the people who pass on him will regret it.

cato
04-09-2015, 11:16 AM
Great Points.

From a monetary standpoint: Let's say he can get himself from a 17-25 pick to the 10th pick

AVG. 3 year earnings for 15-25 Pick is 3.6 Million with avg 4th year at 1.5 million (estimated) so total earnings through 2019 NBA Season is 5.1 Million

If he waits another year and goes at 10 the salary for the 3 year life of the contract is 6.2 Million.

If he goes 5-10 avg salary is 7.6 million

So he could potential make an extra 2.5 Million over 4 years (1.25 after tax) if he stays another year and improves his stock to the 10th pick.

If he gets hurt, if he can't improve, if he stays a 17-25th pick, its a bad bet.


In a perfect scenario Tyus comes back and,

1) Score 20+ points a game for a winning team as the primary scorer and ball handler and focus of the defense
2) Shoot lights out from the floor and behind the arc think 45-50% 2pts and 40-45% 3pts
3) Stop EVERY point guard in every game he plays and shows he is a defense STUD.

He would be the CLEAR NPOY candidate.

This would make him a top 10 pick not the 10th pick.

His decision is really hard.

Would you rather have guaranteed 1million dollars now, or the potential of an extra 1million dollars in 4 years after you're already a millionaire

One thing you are not taking into account: assuming that his NBA career would be longer if he goes this year, he has more total years of earning. That can be offset by a higher second contract, but is no easy to offset by merely increasing your draft position.

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 11:18 AM
One thing you are not taking into account: assuming that his NBA career would be longer if he goes this year, he has more total years of earning. That can be offset by a higher second contract, but is no easy to offset by merely increasing your draft position.

This is such an underrated point. One extra year often means one extra year in your PRIME, where the big bucks are. If Tyus does indeed become the steady rock that we think he will be, he'd be looking at $6-$10M a year in his prime. Not so bad.

sagegrouse
04-09-2015, 11:56 AM
This is such an underrated point. One extra year often means one extra year in your PRIME, where the big bucks are. If Tyus does indeed become the steady rock that we think he will be, he'd be looking at $6-$10M a year in his prime. Not so bad.

Yes, although the logic assumes that staying one extra year in college means one fewer years in the NBA, due to age. What if NBA seasons are more wearing and destructive on the players body than college seasons? After all, the NBA plays 82 games, which can increase by a dozen or two more in the playoffs, whereas college seasons are 40 games. Wouldn't the calculus be different? If a lot of players appear to be washed up before 30, it isn't age -- it's wear-and-tear.

duke09hms
04-09-2015, 12:01 PM
This is such an underrated point. One extra year often means one extra year in your PRIME, where the big bucks are. If Tyus does indeed become the steady rock that we think he will be, he'd be looking at $6-$10M a year in his prime. Not so bad.

Not the age, it's the mileage. Hard to know for sure - good thing we have the GOAT to advise him.

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 12:08 PM
Not the age, it's the mileage. Hard to know for sure - good thing we have the GOAT to advise him.

Wouldn't the mileage also come from one more year of college, eating into your total mileage?

wilson
04-09-2015, 12:12 PM
Not the age, it's the mileage. Hard to know for sure - good thing we have the GOAT to advise him.


Wouldn't the mileage also come from one more year of college, eating into your total mileage?...and is there a cap on mileage allowed on rented players?

clinresga
04-09-2015, 12:14 PM
I can't figure out the new ESPN webpage, and thus am not even sure what the source of this is. It was in the scrolling column of news items on the right side of the page. Some are tweets, but some items (like this one) are unattributed. But what do you make of this:

DUKE'S BIG THREE TO NBA DRAFT?

Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones all said Wednesday they haven't decided yet. Said Okafor: "Me and Tyus and Justise and Grayson [Allen], we had this plan coming here. ... For it to end after nine or 10 months, it would kind of suck."

That's too good to be true, right?

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 12:15 PM
...and is there a cap on mileage allowed on rented players?

Haven't seen many coaches with caps on mileage. I would also like to know if you have to return the player fully fed or if they will feed themselves after the rental agreement.

DukeFanSince1990
04-09-2015, 12:15 PM
I can't figure out the new ESPN webpage, and thus am not even sure what the source of this is. It was in the scrolling column of news items on the right side of the page. Some are tweets, but some items (like this one) are unattributed. But what do you make of this:

DUKE'S BIG THREE TO NBA DRAFT?

Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones all said Wednesday they haven't decided yet. Said Okafor: "Me and Tyus and Justise and Grayson [Allen], we had this plan coming here. ... For it to end after nine or 10 months, it would kind of suck."

That's too good to be true, right?

You should not post these things, are you trying to kill me? :)

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 12:18 PM
I can't figure out the new ESPN webpage, and thus am not even sure what the source of this is. It was in the scrolling column of news items on the right side of the page. Some are tweets, but some items (like this one) are unattributed. But what do you make of this:

DUKE'S BIG THREE TO NBA DRAFT?

Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones all said Wednesday they haven't decided yet. Said Okafor: "Me and Tyus and Justise and Grayson [Allen], we had this plan coming here. ... For it to end after nine or 10 months, it would kind of suck."

That's too good to be true, right?

A ton of one-and-dones, including all Duke one-and-dones, have said something similar. "I love college," "I love Duke," and "I love Coach K" are popular. They all consider staying, but that's like me considering not getting on the plane to the Caribbean after spending 3 solid months in -10 weather with 2 feet of snow.

clinresga
04-09-2015, 12:19 PM
You should not post these things, are you trying to kill me? :)

Just trying to share the pain when the inevitable happens.

burns15
04-09-2015, 12:27 PM
http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/duke/x926852152/With-title-in-hand-whos-staying-at-Duke

An article in yesterday's Herald Sun, has some very interesting quotes.

Justise:
Winslow said a big part of him wants to stay because he has enjoyed his freshman year at Duke – both on and off the court – a great deal.

“I’ve learned so much,” Winslow said. “From the standpoint of being a college student outside of basketball, I’ve had a great time at Duke.”

He also said the decisions of Jones and Okafor could play a role in what he does.

“Potentially it could,” Winslow said. “The relationships I’ve built with these guys, that could be a factor.”

Tyus:
“It will impact it,” Jones said. “It will impact it but at the same time each of us – myself, Justise and Jah – you have to do what’s best for yourself. It’s your future. Obviously we’re going to look at each other and what each other decides to do but at the same time they have to make the right decisions for themselves and I have to do the same.”

Jah
“I love being here so much,” Okafor said. “Me and Tyus and Justise and Grayson, we had this plan coming here. I’ve known Tyus since the third grade. We’ve been planning to go to the same college since our freshman year (of high school). For it to end after nine or 10 months, it would kind of suck. But at the same time, it’s a business decision. There’s a lot of stuff to weigh out.”



Now, I know we have seen this before, but these guys came here to play together. What are the odds of that ever happening again after they leave school? I guess they could all wind up on the US team, but those are extremely long odds.

cato
04-09-2015, 12:33 PM
Yes, although the logic assumes that staying one extra year in college means one fewer years in the NBA, due to age. What if NBA seasons are more wearing and destructive on the players body than college seasons? After all, the NBA plays 82 games, which can increase by a dozen or two more in the playoffs, whereas college seasons are 40 games. Wouldn't the calculus be different? If a lot of players appear to be washed up before 30, it isn't age -- it's wear-and-tear.

Indeed, it explicitly assumes that delaying entry into the NBA decreases the likely totally years of prime earning in the NBA.

The NBA is a grind, but college isn't a vacation. Mileage still accrues. That needs to be taken into account.

Bottom line: trying to calculate the financial impact is a very tricky thing, which cannot be boiled down to relative draft position. I just noted the total earnings issue because it is so often overlooked in these arm-chair analyses.

Lar77
04-09-2015, 12:34 PM
Yes, although the logic assumes that staying one extra year in college means one fewer years in the NBA, due to age. What if NBA seasons are more wearing and destructive on the players body than college seasons? After all, the NBA plays 82 games, which can increase by a dozen or two more in the playoffs, whereas college seasons are 40 games. Wouldn't the calculus be different? If a lot of players appear to be washed up before 30, it isn't age -- it's wear-and-tear.

Sage makes an excellent point. It's more than twice as many games over the same time period against players who are significantly more physically developed than a 19 year old. That takes a toll that may be an early injury or may not be felt until you get out of bed later in life, but it will be a toll that will be paid. Over the longer time frame, conditioning, luck (i.e., injury), ability to adapt, and number of minutes played determine how long you can go.

Looking at Duke's prior early entries, some turned out that leaving early made a positive difference; others, not so much. Similarly, with staying another year.

Nevertheless, it's a lot of money on the table today versus non-financial reasons.

COYS
04-09-2015, 12:46 PM
Sage makes an excellent point. It's more than twice as many games over the same time period against players who are significantly more physically developed than a 19 year old. That takes a toll that may be an early injury or may not be felt until you get out of bed later in life, but it will be a toll that will be paid. Over the longer time frame, conditioning, luck (i.e., injury), ability to adapt, and number of minutes played determine how long you can go.

Looking at Duke's prior early entries, some turned out that leaving early made a positive difference; others, not so much. Similarly, with staying another year.

Nevertheless, it's a lot of money on the table today versus non-financial reasons.

I really think this is one of those decisions that depends heavily on the individual athlete. Even if injury is no factor, there's no clearcut path. I mean, Duncan stuck around and it didn't hurt the longevity of his career. Meanwhile, Kyle gave up a probably first round selection in 2010 only to fall to the second round after his senior year and decide to play for less in Spain during the lock-out shortened season. Financially, he probably would have made a bit more coming out after his junior year. On the other hand, he stayed healthy and is carving out a role in the League now.

Jabari is probably the most interesting of all of the Duke guys in terms of weighing injury and early entry. If his ACL had torn during his sophomore year, he probably would have been labelled as injury prone, especially in combination with the injury he suffered in high school. That could have cost him immensely. And if he suffered any more injuries upon returning for a junior year (if he opted to come back to college), it could really have cost him. On the other hand, Sage's point might apply here. Jabari played his senior year of high school while hurt and had only just started rounding fully back into shape after his Freshman season at Duke. If he had stayed an extra year and spent the summer doing strength and conditioning at Duke and then played the far less rigorous college game schedule against weaker competition, would he have strengthened the muscles around his knee enough that he would have been able to protect himself against injury in the NBA? We'll never know.

But at the end of the day, I am happy for our guys who leave for the league no matter what. Even guys like Austin, Kyrie and Jabari who had disappointing seasons at Duke, all had the dream to play in the NBA. I'm happy they spent some time at Duke along the way, even if they didn't win a title. I would be unbelievably ecstatic if our trio of super-frosh decided they wanted to be super-sophs and go for a repeat, but I don't think any of the three would be making a bad decision to leave now, even if Tyus goes no higher than late first round.

Lar77
04-09-2015, 12:52 PM
Haven't seen many coaches with caps on mileage. I would also like to know if you have to return the player fully fed or if they will feed themselves after the rental agreement.

This is funny. Maybe Bo should have had a cap somewhere.

Utley
04-09-2015, 12:58 PM
Do our players typically have a time when they announce their decision? I that it sometime revolved around the team banquet - I'm guessing not until adter that?

duke09hms
04-09-2015, 01:06 PM
Didn't Florida surprise everyone when all their stars came back for another title run in 2006?

Anything can happen.

mo.st.dukie
04-09-2015, 01:09 PM
When the one and dones usually talk about their decision it always sounds like their heart is saying to stay while their head is saying to go. Or maybe they're just wanting to make it sound that way. I feel like the culture has pretty much given them no choice. I also think the risks of returning to school are wildly exaggerated but have just been repeated so many times that it has become the perceived truth. History shows that if a guy is talented his draft stock isn't going to fall by much. But everybody always points to the no-talent bums like McAdoo as examples why they should leave yet never mention the many other guys who returned to have their stock remain high or only slip a few spots. We've even seen the NBA take guys in the draft that had injuries, Embiid being the most recent.

All fear is exaggerated, humans are notoriously bad at assessing risk, and I think the perpetual talk about the risks of returning have been overblown.

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 01:09 PM
Didn't Florida surprise everyone when all their stars came back for another title run in 2006?

Anything can happen.

Pigs have a better change of flying than Okafor coming back. Winslow's odds aren't much better.

So, yeah, anything can happen.

duke09hms
04-09-2015, 01:20 PM
Pigs have a better change of flying than Okafor coming back. Winslow's odds aren't much better.

So, yeah, anything can happen.

Have we learned nothing from the OPTIMISM thread???

Sure, Tyus is probably the only one who might be a soph, but until they declare ... the dream is still alive.

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 01:23 PM
Have we learned nothing from the OPTIMISM thread???

Sure, Tyus is probably the only one who might be a soph, but until they declare ... the dream is still alive.

But optimism has elements of reality and probability. Okafor and Winslow staying just doesn't.

I never gave up on Duke this season, but I've given up on Okafor and Winslow coming back. And, as much as would love for them to be back, they would absolutely, 100% be making the right decision if they declare.

NM Duke Fan
04-09-2015, 01:27 PM
http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/duke/x926852152/With-title-in-hand-whos-staying-at-Duke

An article in yesterday's Herald Sun, has some very interesting quotes.

Justise:
Winslow said a big part of him wants to stay because he has enjoyed his freshman year at Duke – both on and off the court – a great deal.

“I’ve learned so much,” Winslow said. “From the standpoint of being a college student outside of basketball, I’ve had a great time at Duke.”

He also said the decisions of Jones and Okafor could play a role in what he does.

“Potentially it could,” Winslow said. “The relationships I’ve built with these guys, that could be a factor.”

Tyus:
“It will impact it,” Jones said. “It will impact it but at the same time each of us – myself, Justise and Jah – you have to do what’s best for yourself. It’s your future. Obviously we’re going to look at each other and what each other decides to do but at the same time they have to make the right decisions for themselves and I have to do the same.”

Jah
“I love being here so much,” Okafor said. “Me and Tyus and Justise and Grayson, we had this plan coming here. I’ve known Tyus since the third grade. We’ve been planning to go to the same college since our freshman year (of high school). For it to end after nine or 10 months, it would kind of suck. But at the same time, it’s a business decision. There’s a lot of stuff to weigh out.”



Now, I know we have seen this before, but these guys came here to play together. What are the odds of that ever happening again after they leave school? I guess they could all wind up on the US team, but those are extremely long odds.

One thing is for certain, these players have been a fantastic advertisement for the program and the kind of relationships that Coach K works so hard to develop with his players. And they will continue to represent the program in an outstanding way no matter their choices turn out to be.

I keep thinking back to the quotes from Winslow's father that I posted the other day. Which to me said a lot coming from someone with experience as he has from his years and accrued wisdom. I am sure all of these guys are very aware of those quotes, but life is always full of trade offs for all of us! With me at least, I always knew that my wise father understood so much more about life than I did, even when I was a teenager!

There will be lots of positives ahead for these great kids, and I truly hope they make the decisions that lead to the greatest possible amount of happiness. No matter what happens, this is an exceptional group of young men who will always have an extremely special place in the hearts of so many of us fans!

tux
04-09-2015, 01:37 PM
I really think this is one of those decisions that depends heavily on the individual athlete. Even if injury is no factor, there's no clearcut path. I mean, Duncan stuck around and it didn't hurt the longevity of his career. Meanwhile, Kyle gave up a probably first round selection in 2010 only to fall to the second round after his senior year and decide to play for less in Spain during the lock-out shortened season. Financially, he probably would have made a bit more coming out after his junior year. On the other hand, he stayed healthy and is carving out a role in the League now.

Jabari is probably the most interesting of all of the Duke guys in terms of weighing injury and early entry. If his ACL had torn during his sophomore year, he probably would have been labelled as injury prone, especially in combination with the injury he suffered in high school. That could have cost him immensely. And if he suffered any more injuries upon returning for a junior year (if he opted to come back to college), it could really have cost him. On the other hand, Sage's point might apply here. Jabari played his senior year of high school while hurt and had only just started rounding fully back into shape after his Freshman season at Duke. If he had stayed an extra year and spent the summer doing strength and conditioning at Duke and then played the far less rigorous college game schedule against weaker competition, would he have strengthened the muscles around his knee enough that he would have been able to protect himself against injury in the NBA? We'll never know.

But at the end of the day, I am happy for our guys who leave for the league no matter what. Even guys like Austin, Kyrie and Jabari who had disappointing seasons at Duke, all had the dream to play in the NBA. I'm happy they spent some time at Duke along the way, even if they didn't win a title. I would be unbelievably ecstatic if our trio of super-frosh decided they wanted to be super-sophs and go for a repeat, but I don't think any of the three would be making a bad decision to leave now, even if Tyus goes no higher than late first round.


Luck also plays a huge role. E.g., Duncan was always going to be a star, but how lucky was he to get drafted by San Antonio? Especially for guys who get drafted out of the lottery (and even for some in the lottery), getting a good fit in terms of team and coach can be the difference between getting to a 2nd contract or not. And the important milestone is definitely the first contract you sign after your rookie deal. Beyond that, I'd say having sound financial advice and not being a knucklehead are bigger determinants of long-term wealth for these kids. A smart kid can probably go a long way on just that first contract. On the other hand, Allen Iverson is broke.

If the primary concern is money, the biggest reason to stay IMO is building your brand. Grant Hill made a lot of money very early in his career from the name he built at Duke. Of course, that's probably only relevant for the truly elite players.

MarkD83
04-09-2015, 01:41 PM
Having seen this board go through the ups and downs of NBA declarations I remain optimistic by treating this like recruiting, but the alternatives are better.

Duke's current roster next year will consist of 4 players who were insrumental in winning Duke's 5th national championship. Those players include:

Amile, Marshall, Matt and Grayson.

There is also another player who has been with the program for a year and knows the Duke system: Sean.

There are two top recruits about to join Duke that fill some needs in the back and front court; Luke and Chase.

There are several other potential HS recruits that can fill some additional needs and if they don't go to Duke, they may go to our fiercest competitors.

There are then 3 "recruits" who either come back to Duke or don't play in the NCAA. Those 3 "recruits" have a great pedigree. They know the Duke system and they were intergral parts of winning Duke's 5th national championship (see how I got that in a couple of times in this post).

So be optimistic we may get some great "recruits" who, if they don't decide to "go to Duke" won't be playing for our competitors.

jimsumner
04-09-2015, 01:46 PM
When the one and dones usually talk about their decision it always sounds like their heart is saying to stay while their head is saying to go. Or maybe they're just wanting to make it sound that way. I feel like the culture has pretty much given them no choice. I also think the risks of returning to school are wildly exaggerated but have just been repeated so many times that it has become the perceived truth. History shows that if a guy is talented his draft stock isn't going to fall by much. But everybody always points to the no-talent bums like McAdoo as examples why they should leave yet never mention the many other guys who returned to have their stock remain high or only slip a few spots. We've even seen the NBA take guys in the draft that had injuries, Embiid being the most recent.

All fear is exaggerated, humans are notoriously bad at assessing risk, and I think the perpetual talk about the risks of returning have been overblown.

No-talent bum?

Why would we have any reason to think of McAdoo as a bum?

Or even no-talent. He is cashing NBA checks, after all. Tough to do that without some talent.

COYS
04-09-2015, 01:48 PM
So be optimistic we may get some great "recruits" who, if they don't decide to "go to Duke" won't be playing for our competitors.

(at the risk of angering the weux-gods) But if those three "recruits" do decide to come to Duke, does that mean that we'd have to play an NBA team in order to play our fiercest competitors? =)

TampaDukie
04-09-2015, 02:04 PM
I don't expect Jah to come back, but I keep thinking about this article from a couple of months ago, especially the part about Jabari telling Jah how much he misses what he had at Duke. I know a great college experience doesn't outweigh the chance to make millions in a matter of months, but it's nice to see the acknowledgement from Chucky that it won't be as easy a decision for Jah as it may look on the surface.

Jahlil Okafor loves life at Duke, but for how long? (http://chicago.suntimes.com/colleges/7/71/359358/jahlil-okafor-loves-life-duke-long)

In any case, I support whatever the decisions the guys make over the next few weeks. I'd love to see them pursue a second ring next year, but if they go, I'm absolutely thrilled for them that they'll be leaving as champions.

stedge
04-09-2015, 02:12 PM
First off, I think all 3 are gone.

That said, I do not think it is the wise decision, for any one of them, for a number of reasons.

1. Money does not make you happy. That is a fact. After a fairly modest amount, additional $$ does not make people happier. So people with 100 million are not happier than people with far, far less. As an old professor once said, "Money is a space occupying lesion..." These guys are good players, whether they stay one year or 4. They will literally make more money than necessary for happiness no matter their decision.
2. Would Tim Duncan have been as successful off the court if he had not finished and earned his degree? Yeah, there are exceptions to this line of thinking, but a college degree sure won't hurt your off-the-court prospects.
3. I would wager that you will be unlikely to find a successful (or unsuccessful) NBA player that stayed in (a real) school and earned a (real) degree that would say they wish they had not finished school and had left early.
4. I would wager similarly that you could find many more successful (and unsuccessful) NBA players who did not finish college, who in retrospect feel like it would have been a good thing to have done.


Too much money, people get stupid.

mo.st.dukie
04-09-2015, 02:12 PM
No-talent bum?

Why would we have any reason to think of McAdoo as a bum?

Or even no-talent. He is cashing NBA checks, after all. Tough to do that without some talent.

Oh shoot, well that just proves my point even further. The point of my post was that this idea that returning to school is super risky and puts their future in jeopardy is overblown.

Now, if what they want to do is go to the NBA then that's fine and they should. But if they want to stay in school they hopefully would do that instead of letting these overblown claims that they can only drop in the draft rule what they do.

wsb3
04-09-2015, 02:15 PM
Didn't Florida surprise everyone when all their stars came back for another title run in 2006?

Anything can happen.

I could be dead wrong & that happens frequently but I don't recall it being such a huge shock then that they decided to stay. Surprised maybe but shocked no. Things have changed so much that it seems as if the kids now feel they have to go.

NYBri
04-09-2015, 02:18 PM
Understand all of our hoping...and I recognize this agonizing is now an annual event for all of us, but this time seems different.

The decision is going to be up to these remarkable guys.

They have surprised us many times with their maturity and heart. Maturity that will tell them that the lure of money and the NBA is real, but the chance to play here and now...together... is a one time event. An event they all have enjoyed like no other event in their lives. You pass it up, there is no going back.

Heart....well, I think we have a sense of their heart.

I believe they will move on, but would not be at all surprised if they stayed for one more grab at the ring. To do it for K...for Quinn...for each other. And, if they succeed, the NBA will be there with even more money and fame then they would have now.

NashvilleDevil
04-09-2015, 02:18 PM
First off, I think all 3 are gone.

That said, I do not think it is the wise decision, for any one of them, for a number of reasons.

1. Money does not make you happy. That is a fact. After a fairly modest amount, additional $$ does not make people happier. So people with 100 million are not happier than people with far, far less. As an old professor once said, "Money is a space occupying lesion..." These guys are good players, whether they stay one year or 4. They will literally make more money than necessary for happiness no matter their decision.
2. Would Tim Duncan have been as successful off the court if he had not finished and earned his degree? Yeah, there are exceptions to this line of thinking, but a college degree sure won't hurt your off-the-court prospects.
3. I would wager that you will be unlikely to find a successful (or unsuccessful) NBA player that stayed in (a real) school and earned a (real) degree that would say they wish they had not finished school and had left early.
4. I would wager similarly that you could find many more successful (and unsuccessful) NBA players who did not finish college, who in retrospect feel like it would have been a good thing to have done.


Too much money, people get stupid.

Do you feel the same way about the undergrad who leaves school to start a company or is it just basketball players?

MarkD83
04-09-2015, 02:38 PM
(at the risk of angering the weux-gods) But if those three "recruits" do decide to come to Duke, does that mean that we'd have to play an NBA team in order to play our fiercest competitors? =)

Well these 3 "recruits" just played on Duke's 2015 National Championship Team that beat Wisc., who beat an NBA team. Does that count?

(BTW the phrase in bold never gets old and I am trying to put it in all of my posts for the next 10 months.)

uh_no
04-09-2015, 02:40 PM
Well these 3 "recruits" just played on Duke's 2015 National Championship Team that beat Wisc., who beata team that didn't play anybody all year, nearly lost in their first game against a legit team, and did lose in their second Does that count?

(BTW the phrase in bold never gets old and I am trying to put it in all of my posts for the next 10 months.)

Sorry. just clarified that for you.

Henderson
04-09-2015, 02:44 PM
Sorry. just clarified that for you.

I can't agree that Kentucky played nobody all year. But that thread is elswhere, and its equine corpse is now dust.

BlueTeuf
04-09-2015, 02:51 PM
I'd pay a couple million bucks to give my father a year like Chucky Okafor just experienced. I want more Chucky!

Even if Jah gets injured, how far is he going to drop?

If Jah stays, Tyus stays. If Tyus stays, Jah is going to have a great year.

See? The correct decision is to stay, both emotionally and logically. ;)

Philadukie
04-09-2015, 02:51 PM
#shocktheworld

;)

Neals384
04-09-2015, 02:55 PM
First off, I think all 3 are gone.

That said, I do not think it is the wise decision, for any one of them, for a number of reasons.

1. Money does not make you happy. That is a fact. After a fairly modest amount, additional $$ does not make people happier. So people with 100 million are not happier than people with far, far less. As an old professor once said, "Money is a space occupying lesion..." These guys are good players, whether they stay one year or 4. They will literally make more money than necessary for happiness no matter their decision.
<snip>


I know there are studies that claim to back up the idea that, above $100,000 per year, more $ won't make you happier. And certainly we all know individuals with less who are very happy, and some with riches who are miserable.

BUT, please be aware that some in politics have promoted this idea as a way to justify taking from the rich to give to the poor. It's a new way of saying "Each according to his needs."

fgb
04-09-2015, 02:57 PM
I know there are studies that claim to back up the idea that, above $100,000 per year, more $ won't make you happier. And certainly we all know individuals with less who are very happy, and some with riches who are miserable.

to quote prince: "money can't buy you happiness, but is sure can pay for the search."

fgb
04-09-2015, 02:58 PM
i think that tyus pretty much has to go now; his stock has definitely risen, and if he stayed, he'd be scrutinized a lot more than he was this year, which could hurt any player. ironically, another year would probably make him more ready for the league, but drive his status down in the draft.

that said, i really dislike the fact that jeff goodman did his survey of nba execs about jones almost as soon as the ff was done: why would he do that? it;s as if he is trying to create an atmosphere to push tyus to jump.

Philadukie
04-09-2015, 03:00 PM
to quote prince: "money can't buy you happiness, but is sure can pay for the search."

I believe Mae West once said, "I've been poor and miserable and rich and miserable. And rich and miserable is a lot better."

BD80
04-09-2015, 03:14 PM
What if a coach were able to guarantee 3 underclassman deciding whether to turn pro a spot on the Olympic basketball team if they stayed in college for another year?

Justise might be a shoo-in anyway, with his attacking style, defensive capabilities, and versatility.

Jah may be the #1 pick in the draft, but he might not be a clear cut Olympian (depending on what other bigs want to play). Maybe the #12 guy, a developmental selection.

Tyus wouldn't be lost in the Olympics, but a lot of better PGs might want to play.

But we've got a coach (or two) that could get them spots in Rio in '16. Think about what an experience that would be.

Olympic bump in endorsement value would probably compensate for a year of lost NBA revenue.

I know it wouldn't happen. But ...

Rich
04-09-2015, 03:35 PM
What if a coach were able to guarantee 3 underclassman deciding whether to turn pro a spot on the Olympic basketball team if they stayed in college for another year?

Wow, can you imagine the conflict of interest? I know you were just kidding, but if Coach K ever did anything close to that the hating would be completely justified.

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 03:37 PM
What if a coach were able to guarantee 3 underclassman deciding whether to turn pro a spot on the Olympic basketball team if they stayed in college for another year?

Justise might be a shoo-in anyway, with his attacking style, defensive capabilities, and versatility.

Jah may be the #1 pick in the draft, but he might not be a clear cut Olympian (depending on what other bigs want to play). Maybe the #12 guy, a developmental selection.

Tyus wouldn't be lost in the Olympics, but a lot of better PGs might want to play.

But we've got a coach (or two) that could get them spots in Rio in '16. Think about what an experience that would be.

Olympic bump in endorsement value would probably compensate for a year of lost NBA revenue.

I know it wouldn't happen. But ...

No offense, BD80, but if Coach K promises this, especially when Tyus doesn't look like a top 15 PG for at least a few years, I'd hope that Coach K doesn't coach Team USA.

Duke and Team USA, IMO, are exclusively different. One should not influence the other when it comes to players and playing time (you shouldn't go to Duke to be on Team USA, and you don't get selected to Team USA simply cus you went to Duke).

I think that's why there is that beautiful system of checks and balances with Jerry Colangelo and the NBA Assistant coaches. Winslows, Tyus, and Jah may be on Team USA, but it will be deserved.

stedge
04-09-2015, 04:16 PM
Do you feel the same way about the undergrad who leaves school to start a company or is it just basketball players?

It is general and not limited to basketball.

Life is not about money, at least for many people. That there is a point at which additional money does not make you happier is a fact. So once you are past a certain modest point on the income scale, whether you are going to play basketball, work at Google, start your own business, or you win the lottery, it is not the money that will make you happy in the long run, and lead to a rewarding life. Here the issue is moot - these 3 guys will be wealthy no matter what - or at least similarly wealthy whether they go now or in a year or 3. So it would be reasonable to suggest that money should not matter too much in the decision-making process.

If you are a parent, I'd love to know what you would tell your kids were they in the same situation as Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus (and we'll assume a baseline of a comfortable middle class background)? Would you tell your kid to chase the money immediately, or, if their passion takes them toward a less lucrative field or they would be happier staying in school, would you tell them (if they ask you) to do what makes them happy?

Anyway, back to the thread.

stedge
04-09-2015, 04:21 PM
I know there are studies that claim to back up the idea that, above $100,000 per year, more $ won't make you happier. And certainly we all know individuals with less who are very happy, and some with riches who are miserable.

BUT, please be aware that some in politics have promoted this idea as a way to justify taking from the rich to give to the poor. It's a new way of saying "Each according to his needs."




Not trying to justify anything like that. I am not making any political statement, but more a point from the standpoint of a parent to a college-age child - that is, nothing other than to suggest that it might be wise to consider things other than money in a personal decision like this.

And to the other, yeah, poor sucks. There is a cutoff. Once past that, meh, rich or comfortable, either way you can live an equally happy life.

Apologies for the thread detour, and I will stop.

Duvall
04-09-2015, 04:26 PM
It is general and not limited to basketball.

Life is not about money, at least for many people. That there is a point at which additional money does not make you happier is a fact.

Okay, but that point is not between "none" and "some."

NancyCarol
04-09-2015, 04:29 PM
Sledge I am a parent.
I would tell each of these remarkable young men that they will never again have this kinship once they become a product and a commodity. They will be traded and bought and sold like any other product. They will play for coaches that don't treat them like family, with players that are just there for the money. i would tell them stay and enjoy the incredible place that is Duke University under the care of Coach K as long as they possibly can. In fact, I would beg them to do so.

Troublemaker
04-09-2015, 04:38 PM
It is general and not limited to basketball.

Life is not about money, at least for many people. That there is a point at which additional money does not make you happier is a fact. So once you are past a certain modest point on the income scale, whether you are going to play basketball, work at Google, start your own business, or you win the lottery, it is not the money that will make you happy in the long run, and lead to a rewarding life. Here the issue is moot - these 3 guys will be wealthy no matter what - or at least similarly wealthy whether they go now or in a year or 3. So it would be reasonable to suggest that money should not matter too much in the decision-making process.

If you are a parent, I'd love to know what you would tell your kids were they in the same situation as Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus (and we'll assume a baseline of a comfortable middle class background)? Would you tell your kid to chase the money immediately, or, if their passion takes them toward a less lucrative field or they would be happier staying in school, would you tell them (if they ask you) to do what makes them happy?

Anyway, back to the thread.

Why are you assuming it's all about the money? Most of these elite athletes take their craft very seriously and would probably play even if they made $100 K / year. Unlike most professionals, they have a very limited time (from roughly age 20 to age 35) to develop their craft. Many view taking the jump to the next level as just the next step in their development.

I remember reading a tremendous profile on Jahlil in a Chicago magazine where he said something like "I want to go down as the greatest big man ever." Look, I love Duke and I think our coaches do great things with our players and their development, but if that's Jahlil's goal, he's better off pursuing it in the NBA next season than at Duke.

You are correct that money doesn't buy happiness. But career satisfaction and knowing that you're excellent at your craft DOES correlate well with happiness. For most of these players, it's not just about the money and you shouldn't assume that it is.

MCFinARL
04-09-2015, 04:39 PM
Do our players typically have a time when they announce their decision? I that it sometime revolved around the team banquet - I'm guessing not until adter that?

The NBA draft entry deadline is April 26; the banquet is, I think, April 23--so it's likely to be sometime around then by definition. As Coach K pointed out in one of his press interviews, they also have only a couple of weeks to finish their classes, so to the extent they haven't decided already, they may need to sandwich consideration in around that. Based on what we know of these three players, I think it's very likely all will want to finish the semester in good standing, even if they are planning to leave, so they will have made more progress toward degrees they will likely want to get later.

cato
04-09-2015, 04:41 PM
It is general and not limited to basketball.

Life is not about money, at least for many people. That there is a point at which additional money does not make you happier is a fact. So once you are past a certain modest point on the income scale, whether you are going to play basketball, work at Google, start your own business, or you win the lottery, it is not the money that will make you happy in the long run, and lead to a rewarding life. Here the issue is moot - these 3 guys will be wealthy no matter what - or at least similarly wealthy whether they go now or in a year or 3. So it would be reasonable to suggest that money should not matter too much in the decision-making process.

If you are a parent, I'd love to know what you would tell your kids were they in the same situation as Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus (and we'll assume a baseline of a comfortable middle class background)? Would you tell your kid to chase the money immediately, or, if their passion takes them toward a less lucrative field or they would be happier staying in school, would you tell them (if they ask you) to do what makes them happy?

Anyway, back to the thread.

Speaking only for myself, I would avoid simple platitudes that don't hold up in real life, grapple with the complicated issues at hand, and tell my kid that no matter what they decide, I'll love them forever and always be first in the corner.

I imagine that is also how most college basketball players' parents approach the decision. There is one thing going for the players though: playing in the NBA is their passion, so it might be tough to leave college, but at least they get to realize their dream AND get paid while doing so.

Saratoga2
04-09-2015, 04:42 PM
It is up to the players and their parents using their values to make this hard decsion. Both Jahlil and Justise have the physical attributes which make then very desirable in the NBA. Tyus has neither the super quickness or size to make him a shoo in success in the NBA. If he does go, his knowlege of the game and ability to see the floor and make decisions will carry him forward. I think he faces the risk of having a difficult time being a front line player in the NBA. There will be other PG's with more sizeand/or quickness that will compete with him should he go. The problem for Tyus is his physical attributes will not change with age and experience and he may never be in a better position to get a first round choice.

johnb
04-09-2015, 04:43 PM
If you are a parent, I'd love to know what you would tell your kids were they in the same situation as Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus .....

My child can never be in that situation since she's a girl, and there isn't the Big Money in women's basketball. But let's say she were a top 10 golfer or tennis player who was on a Duke NC team. To get to that point, she'd have to be obsessed with the sport, and she'd know that she is competing with girls from all over the world who would never even be considering college since sports is a full time business for most truly elite athletes. I'd probably be telling her if she were in Justise and Jahlil's position that it's better to go pro and lock in affluence and get the meter running.

Tyus is a bit of a different issue. At the apex of his MOP celebrity, he has been bumped up to #20. My soul searching would then what I believed to be his ceiling. With a weaker draft in 2016, and another terrific year, I'd be wondering if he could become a legitimate nab starter and be evaluated into the top 10, which would pay a lot more than being #20, or worse, sliding into the second round after an unimpressive pre-draft workout. So it would be be tougher, and I'd probably want him to stay. And if he did stick around, and turned out to be only okay, he'd be much better set up to become a college coach--which ain't happening if he goes pro early.

flyingdutchdevil
04-09-2015, 04:45 PM
Why are you assuming it's all about the money? Most of these elite athletes take their craft very seriously and would probably play even if they made $100 K / year. Unlike most professionals, they have a very limited time (from roughly age 20 to age 35) to develop their craft. Many view taking the jump to the next level as just the next step in their development.

I remember reading a tremendous profile on Jahlil in a Chicago magazine where he said something like "I want to go down as the greatest big man ever." Look, I love Duke and I think our coaches do great things with our players and their development, but if that's Jahlil's goal, he's better off pursuing it in the NBA next season than at Duke.

You are correct that money doesn't buy happiness. But career satisfaction and knowing that you're excellent at your craft DOES correlate well with happiness. For most of these players, it's not just about the money and you shouldn't assume that it is.

Sporks for this man. The NBA isn't about money for many of these kids (okay, money does help. And okay, it is about money for some); it's about achieving the highest level within your given trade. I would absolutely leave college early to pursue my goal of CEO, but unfortunately leaving college early isn't an advised route to achieve this. However, I would leave if I had an awesome idea like Facebook or Microsoft.

College ball is great, but we are kidding ourselves if we think that college ball is anywhere near the quality of the NBA. It's not. These kids have a goal, and that goal is playing competition with the best of the best. Few players leave and say, "I'm leaving [xxx] for Europe!". Europe pays well (sometimes very well), but these kids aren't in it to perform at the highest level. Most - if not all - Duke players leave for the greatest basketball league in the world to achieve greatness.

Duvall
04-09-2015, 05:12 PM
Okafor entering the draft. (http://www.wralsportsfan.com/rs/page/12745416/?break_id=12064)

"With Coach K's & my family's blessing I will be fulfilling my life-long dream and proudly entering my name into the NBA Draft.” - Okafor.

swood1000
04-09-2015, 05:14 PM
It is general and not limited to basketball.

Life is not about money, at least for many people. That there is a point at which additional money does not make you happier is a fact. So once you are past a certain modest point on the income scale, whether you are going to play basketball, work at Google, start your own business, or you win the lottery, it is not the money that will make you happy in the long run, and lead to a rewarding life. Here the issue is moot - these 3 guys will be wealthy no matter what - or at least similarly wealthy whether they go now or in a year or 3. So it would be reasonable to suggest that money should not matter too much in the decision-making process.

If you are a parent, I'd love to know what you would tell your kids were they in the same situation as Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus (and we'll assume a baseline of a comfortable middle class background)? Would you tell your kid to chase the money immediately, or, if their passion takes them toward a less lucrative field or they would be happier staying in school, would you tell them (if they ask you) to do what makes them happy?

Anyway, back to the thread.
What's the news with Kyrie Irving? Wasn't he coming back each summer to complete his degree (in part because that will look good on his resume when he applies for an announcing job, not to mention that he could take some classes quite relevant to that goal)? They can do both. Also, it's nice to talk about the joy of one's college years. But being assured in one's ability to support a family and to weather storms that tend to come one's way are also joys to consider. Finally, people have suffered career-ending injuries both on and off the court, such as the motorcycle accident that ended the career of Jay Williams. What's available now may never be available again.

nmduke2001
04-09-2015, 05:18 PM
Okafor entering the draft. (http://www.wralsportsfan.com/rs/page/12745416/?break_id=12064)

"With Coach K's & my family's blessing I will be fulfilling my life-long dream and proudly entering my name into the NBA Draft.” - Okafor.

Just heard this on ESPN Radio. Congratulations, Jahlil. Good luck. Thanks for helping to hang a banner.

Duvall
04-09-2015, 05:20 PM
Duke press release. (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=210012395&DB_OEM_ID=4200)


“What a great decision!” said Krzyzewski. “This is a tremendous opportunity for Jahlil and he has earned it. Obviously, he has done an incredible job here at Duke and he will always be a part of our Duke basketball family. We could not be happier for he and his family.”

...

“As early as I can remember, I've fantasized and dreamed of the day that I could play professional basketball,” said Okafor. “ I recall at the age of six, promising my mom and dad that when I made it to the NBA I would buy them both different colored trucks. They would laugh with me in support and encouraged me to dream big and work hard. With that being said and now at the age of 19, my dream is still alive! My freshman year has been an amazing experience to say the least. It exceeded my expectations! I love Cameron and Duke University! I can't thank my coaches, teammates and family enough for making this year so special and helping me grow on and off the court. With Coach K's and my family's blessing I will be fulfilling my life-long dream and proudly entering my name into the NBA draft.”

OldPhiKap
04-09-2015, 05:24 PM
Congratulations, big fella!!!!!

weezie
04-09-2015, 05:27 PM
Thank you Jahlil, make us even more proud!

Eternal Outlaw
04-09-2015, 05:30 PM
Thank you and good luck big man, on Duke off nights I'll certainly be looking for some of your games.

Billy Dat
04-09-2015, 05:31 PM
It was sweet while it lasted, Jahzilla! Best of luck in the L.

ChillinDuke
04-09-2015, 05:33 PM
Happy for you, Jah.

Go get 'em in the League! We'll be watching (and rooting)!

- Chillin

gurufrisbee
04-09-2015, 05:49 PM
This will be interesting. I've never felt a close attachment to any Duke players who only stayed for a year (whether it was for going to the NBA or transferring). It's often been very weird to even think of them as Duke players when they accomplish more later. Some have suggested this is because of their lack of success at Duke and examples like Rivers and Jabari certainly make that seem plausible. But even Deng and Irving are limited.

This will be interesting. Certainly no one one year players ever helped lead Duke to a national title before. I'm still just very mixed in how I feel about Okafor right now.

TampaDukie
04-09-2015, 05:56 PM
I and lots of other people have tweeted Chucky, hoping he'll still make visits to Cameron every now and then. :D

Good luck, Jah!

Duke95
04-09-2015, 06:00 PM
Congrats big Jah!!! Always will be part of the Duke family!

OZZIE4DUKE
04-09-2015, 06:00 PM
Congrats Jahlil! You have met and/or exceeded everyone's expectations this year, including being a "one and done". Best of luck on your pro career, and you're welcome back in Cameron whenever the spirit moves you! Same goes for Justise when he makes his decision (shortly).

I'm just sorry that your leaving probably means that Tyus will follow you to the NBA this year. While his "draft stock" may never be higher, he could use another year of development under Coach K and the strength department. I'd hate to see him get sent to the Development League sometime next fall. Hope you become a star, my friend. That goes for all of you! :cool:

MarkD83
04-09-2015, 06:13 PM
Jah. Thank you for the memories and the national championship. The nature of college bball is that all players move on in a short time. Just remember to come back and visit and enjoy being part of the duke family.

KandG
04-09-2015, 06:41 PM
Thank you for everything you and your family gave to Duke and Duke basketball, Jah. Can't wait for you to show the world how good you really are, and to prove the guys who said you beat up on inferior opposition wrong. As others have said, please come back and visit and continue to be part of the Duke community that extends far and wide.

duke74
04-09-2015, 06:49 PM
I believe Mae West once said, "I've been poor and miserable and rich and miserable. And rich and miserable is a lot better."

And of course, "You made many many poor people, I realize of course it's no shame to be poor, but it's no great honor either. Now what would be so terrible if I had a small fortune?" Tevya (Fiddler on the Roof)

moonpie23
04-09-2015, 06:55 PM
, Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you!!!

best of luck in the NBA

devildeac
04-09-2015, 07:09 PM
, Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you!!!

best of luck in the NBA

I'm shocked that moonpie didn't hear and post this 15-20 seconds before the rest of us;):rolleyes:.

Neals384
04-09-2015, 07:30 PM
Best wishes, Jah, and thanks for the memories!

_Gary
04-09-2015, 07:34 PM
Thank you, Jahlil. You have been and will always be a cherished member of the Duke family. May you be blessed with a long and illustrious career in the NBA, and in everything the future holds for you!

Congrats!!!

Newton_14
04-09-2015, 07:35 PM
Congrats to the big fella. I wish him well in the NBA! Going to miss him and Chucky!

dukelifer
04-09-2015, 07:39 PM
Jah had a great year- named ACC player of the year, All American and was a major part of a National Championship. That is a pretty good career. Not much more to prove or do at this level. The NBA will not be easy but Duke has likely prepared him well on how to be a pro. All the best to Jah.

NancyCarol
04-09-2015, 07:54 PM
we'll keep a light on.
go and be all you can be.

mr. synellinden
04-09-2015, 08:03 PM
... and if he does, the two schools he's considering are Duke and Louisville (http://scouthoops.scout.com/story/1536050-thornton-seriously-considering-reclassifying?s=75).

This suggests very strongly to me that Tyus is gone.

itshoopsbabee
04-09-2015, 08:52 PM
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2015/4/9/8380309/duke-louisville-recruiting-derryck-thornton

A link that's not behind a paywall

DukeDevil
04-09-2015, 09:05 PM
Is it weird that I'm going to miss Chucky as much as Jah? Maybe even a little more? I think he's my favorite Duke parents since Ms. Althea Williams...but she's got the edge because she let me paint her face for a game.

hudlow
04-09-2015, 09:42 PM
"A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do."
John Wayne

Thanks Jah,

Rock on!

subzero02
04-09-2015, 09:44 PM
Congratulations Jahlil... You'll always be a Blue Devil and you'll always be a national champion!!!

MCFinARL
04-09-2015, 09:50 PM
Is it weird that I'm going to miss Chucky as much as Jah? Maybe even a little more? I think he's my favorite Duke parents since Ms. Althea Williams...but she's got the edge because she let me paint her face for a game.

I don't think it is weird at all. We never expected to have Jahlil for more than a year, but we knew it would be a good year and it was. We never expected to have the joys brought by Chucky at all, and he gave us a great year as well. I, for one, will certainly miss them both, and probably Chucky a little more.

NYBri
04-09-2015, 09:52 PM
Jah! You the man!!!!

You came to Duke and you delivered!!!!

DBFAN
04-09-2015, 09:52 PM
Can't wait to hear how well he does during the workouts and start to see ESPN and everyone else remember why they thought he was number 1 pick at beginning of season. Finally Towns won't have 100 giants coming in to give him 30 min breathers. I fully expect JAH will be the number 1 pick. I can't wait to watch him at the next level. Thank you so much for letting us watch you play this year, and the many years to come in the league.

NYBri
04-09-2015, 09:54 PM
I suspect Justise and Tyus will follow.

They delivered one of the most memorable seasons I can remember.... And I graduated in '74.

Kfanarmy
04-09-2015, 10:05 PM
What if a coach were able to guarantee 3 underclassman deciding whether to turn pro a spot on the Olympic basketball team if they stayed in college for another year?

Justise might be a shoo-in anyway, with his attacking style, defensive capabilities, and versatility.

Jah may be the #1 pick in the draft, but he might not be a clear cut Olympian (depending on what other bigs want to play). Maybe the #12 guy, a developmental selection.

Tyus wouldn't be lost in the Olympics, but a lot of better PGs might want to play.

But we've got a coach (or two) that could get them spots in Rio in '16. Think about what an experience that would be.

Olympic bump in endorsement value would probably compensate for a year of lost NBA revenue.

I know it wouldn't happen. But ...

Nor should it. That would violate trust on a national level.

duke74
04-09-2015, 10:07 PM
I believe Mae West once said, "I've been poor and miserable and rich and miserable. And rich and miserable is a lot better."


I suspect Justise and Tyus will follow.

They delivered one of the most memorable seasons I can remember.... And I graduated in '74.

Same here (screen name's a giveaway I guess)...Windsor, Southgate (first co-ed dorm) then off campus.

bjornolf
04-09-2015, 10:27 PM
Indeed, it explicitly assumes that delaying entry into the NBA decreases the likely totally years of prime earning in the NBA.

The NBA is a grind, but college isn't a vacation. Mileage still accrues. That needs to be taken into account.

Bottom line: trying to calculate the financial impact is a very tricky thing, which cannot be boiled down to relative draft position. I just noted the total earnings issue because it is so often overlooked in these arm-chair analyses.

Generally speaking, the male human body continues to grow and strengthen through the mid twenties. Maybe a 21 year old body is more prepared for the rigors of an NBA season than a 19 year old one? That should be taken into account as well.

flyingdutchdevil
04-10-2015, 08:43 AM
You came, you saw, and you conquered.

Thank you for your brilliant year of work. It really is a luxury to have a very talented low post presence.

cato
04-10-2015, 11:10 AM
Generally speaking, the male human body continues to grow and strengthen through the mid twenties. Maybe a 21 year old body is more prepared for the rigors of an NBA season than a 19 year old one? That should be taken into account as well.

Of course. Take Jah, for example. He's what, 10 years from this prime strength? He's ready for the NBA, though. Sean Livingstone -- perhaps he was not, although perhaps his freak accident would have happened no matter what.

My only point is that some people completely disregard a very important component that needs to be analyzed: maximizing expected total years of earnings. In no way am I saying that going earlier always achieves the desired result.

Mal
04-10-2015, 12:26 PM
My only point is that some people completely disregard a very important component that needs to be analyzed: maximizing expected total years of earnings.

I'm sure some possible early entrants focus on this. But then again, they're 19. At that age, there would have been little difference in my mind between the theoretical possibility of earning $100 million over the course of a 10 year professional playing career, or earning $120 million over 12 years, I have to say. Either one is an obscene amount of generational wealth, and I still have difficulty divining much of a difference between the one amount and the other in practical terms.

My suspicion would be that there's another factor that stands on the same side as maximizing expected total years of earnings, and may be more powerful for kids with the skills/talent to go into the draft before 22. That would be fear of expected total years of earnings dropping to 0 due to catastrophic injury. I don't know how valid that concern is in terms of actual risk likelihood, but I would imagine a lot of conversations (in the heads of prospects, or with whisperers/agent types whose best interest is served by the kid getting into the draft) go like this: "If you come out now, you lock in $5-10 million dollars. That's enough money to live comfortably the rest of your life if you get hurt or lightning strikes." It's not about the difference between $100 million and $120 million over the course of a career. I think it's more about the difference between $5 or $10 million and zero.

Unrelated to cato's post but a theme upthread, on the educational front, long ago I was one of the folks of the mind that the "college experience" and "getting an education" and all that should be a real factor for people. I've since come to think that's paternalistic bordering on ridiculous. I'm sure Jah and Justise enjoyed being students at Duke this year. Winslow, I understand, was an ACC All-Academic, which is tremendous. But let's be honest. There are both tangible and intangible values to a full 4 year college education. On the tangible side, these guys are going to ply a trade in which a college education provides no advantage, and for which an actual degree is quite obviously no barrier to entry. They're no different than brilliant programmers in this respect - I would not tell one of the 5 or 10 most promising young programmers in the world to not take an offer of millions of dollars a year to go work at Apple. The value society puts on a professional athlete similarly has extremely little relationship to their educational input. And on the intangible side, a lot of actual graduates of actual universities manage to learn very, very little over the course of 4 years, outside the realm of Beer Studies. If a professional athlete wants to come back out of a sincere desire to actually learn something, that's awesome, and they'll probably be a lot more serious about their studies than most of the 20 year-olds on campuses across America biding their time before entering the real world. Is there an opportunity cost in terms of well-rounded person/getting more hangout time in the dorms with peers your age? Yes. But that's pretty minimal. A majority of Americans still don't have 4 year college degrees.

Anyway, with all that said, Thank You, Jahlil, for your contributions to our shared institution this season. You represented Duke in a commendable manner and should be proud of that, and we'll always consider you a part of our extended family. Likewise to Justise and/or Tyus, should they declare in the coming days. Best of luck at the next level, and we'll be pulling for you!

Troublemaker
04-10-2015, 01:05 PM
fyi, but don't believe anything until Duke officially announces

Shams Charania @ShamsCharania (https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania) · 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/586553549032660992)

Duke freshman Tyus Jones proceeding toward plans to declare for the NBA Draft and scheduling representation meetings, sources told RealGM.

wk2109
04-10-2015, 03:46 PM
Adam Rowe reporting Justise is gone and Tyus is still up in the air: http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/Justise-Winslow-headed-to-NBA-Tyus-Jones-still-up-in-the-air-36720073

DukeTrinity11
04-10-2015, 04:35 PM
http://247sports.com/Bolt/Justise-Winslow-headed-to-NBA-Tyus-Jones-still-up-in-the-air-36720073

Thanks for the memories and the thrill ride in the tournament Chief Justise, I"ll enjoy cheering you on in in the NBA!!

nmduke2001
04-10-2015, 04:59 PM
I think that it is the right move for Justise to leave, but selfishly I hoped he would stay. I can't remember another player I enjoyed watching play more than Justise.

Bob Green
04-10-2015, 05:08 PM
I think that it is the right move for Justise to leave...

Justise is going to be a star in the NBA. His game is going to translate perfectly.

COYS
04-10-2015, 05:14 PM
Justise is going to be a star in the NBA. His game is going to translate perfectly.

I agree with this. His strength, ball handling ability, rebounding, court vision, athleticism, and defense will allow him to make an instant impact. I think the biggest determining factors for him will be whether or not he can continue to hit from three at the NBA level as he did from college and whether he can become a little bit more reliable on two point jumpers and from the free throw line. If he proves he can shoot consistently . . . well . . . he has a pretty high ceiling.

Dude is talented. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a triple double in points, assists, and rebounds at some point in his first season or two.

Honestly, I'm still trying to figure out how he wasn't even in the top 10 of last year's RSCI.

Trey21
04-10-2015, 05:22 PM
I think that it is the right move for Justise to leave, but selfishly I hoped he would stay. I can't remember another player I enjoyed watching play more than Justise.

Agree with everything you said here. I hope we go after more players like him in the future. He's fierceness was unmatched and the way he developed over the course of the season was simply stunning. Rare to see a player take a dramatic leap like he did in the second half of the season, or once he got healed up. Started improving his outside shot and in the NCAA's his free throw shooting was a lot better. I'll miss his passion, his hustle, and that stare.

Once he improves his handle, I hope he'll be a mix of Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. A strong two way player, a slasher who can draw contact but who has a strong outside game as well. I have no doubt that he'll be a star in the league. 20 years from now I think we'll look back and he might just be the best player in this draft.

freshmanjs
04-10-2015, 05:23 PM
Agree with everything you said here. I hope we go after more players like him in the future. He's fierceness was unmatched and the way he developed over the course of the season was simply stunning. Rare to see a player take a dramatic leap like he did in the second half of the season, or once he got healed up. Started improving his outside shot and in the NCAA's his free throw shooting was a lot better. I'll miss his passion, his hustle, and that stare.

Once he improves his handle, I hope he'll be a mix of Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. A strong two way player, a slasher who can draw contact but who has a strong outside game as well. I have no doubt that he'll be a star in the league. 20 years from now I think we'll look back and he might just be the best player in this draft.

what players like him?

Bob Green
04-10-2015, 05:25 PM
what players like him?

Agreed! Players with the skill sets possessed by Justise Winslow do not grow on trees.

nmduke2001
04-10-2015, 05:36 PM
Once he improves his handle, I hope he'll be a mix of Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. A strong two way player, a slasher who can draw contact but who has a strong outside game as well. I have no doubt that he'll be a star in the league. 20 years from now I think we'll look back and he might just be the best player in this draft.

I was thinking a mix of Harden and Artest. Not as good offensively as Harden and not as good defensively as Artest, but a good mix of each.

Trey21
04-10-2015, 05:44 PM
I was thinking a mix of Harden and Artest. Not as good offensively as Harden and not as good defensively as Artest, but a good mix of each.

I actually like that comparison better because Kahwi is a bit longer than Justise is. I think he can develop into something really special (a top 25 NBA player).

I mean obviously Winslow is a rare and unique player in terms of basketball skill and body, but what I meant generally is going after guys who are 6'6"-6'8" range who can be physical if needed, has solid athleticism, and is able to slash to the basket. He obviously isn't the same as Winslow and he hasn't had the career I thought he'd have but Poythress is a recent player that comes to mind when I'm thinking up an archetype.

duke4ever19
04-10-2015, 05:48 PM
And then there was one.

OldPhiKap
04-10-2015, 05:54 PM
And then there was one.

Well, two.

wavedukefan70s
04-10-2015, 06:01 PM
Do you think Winslow will be like Corey maggette in the nba.for some reason thats what I envision.

COYS
04-10-2015, 06:15 PM
Do you think Winslow will be like Corey maggette in the nba.for some reason thats what I envision.

Corey was a strong right handed driver who was money from the line. In his prime he was at or near the top in FTA/FGA. What he lacked was court vision and a left hand. He was also just a mediocre defender.

I think Justise will be a much better defender and has shown the ability to handle the ball better, already. I still like the Iguodala comparison. Iggy has had great assist numbers for a small forward. He's a great defender. I think Justise might be a more rounded offensive player of he can continue to improve his shooting.

However, I will be surprised if his offensive game looks like Corey's.

pfrduke
04-10-2015, 06:20 PM
I don't doubt that he's going, but until Winslow makes the announcement himself that he's leaving (or the program makes the official announcement) we're still treating his departure as tentative around these parts.

KandG
04-10-2015, 06:30 PM
Corey was a strong right handed driver who was money from the line. In his prime he was at or near the top in FTA/FGA. What he lacked was court vision and a left hand. He was also just a mediocre defender.

I think Justise will be a much better defender and has shown the ability to handle the ball better, already. I still like the Iguodala comparison. Iggy has had great assist numbers for a small forward. He's a great defender. I think Justise might be a more rounded offensive player of he can continue to improve his shooting.

However, I will be surprised if his offensive game looks like Corey's.

Winslow may end up being a foul drawing machine like Maggette, but I agree that he'll end up being a much more versatile player. (In fairness to Corey, as one-dimensional as he was, his best years with the Clippers in the mid-2000s with Elton as a teammate were very solid).

I like the Iguoudala and Jimmy Butler comparisons best. Butler is also excellent at drawing fouls on offense and is a very strong, versatile and physical defender who moves his feet as well as anyone.

I've seen outlier projections to Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard...there are some loose comparisons to be made, but I'm not ready to go that far yet. But Justise has really skyrocketed in draft projections over the last two weeks, with some knowledgeable NBA observers saying he could end up being the prize of the entire draft.

NYBri
04-10-2015, 06:40 PM
Let's celebrate this class and be thankful we have one of four next year. Good on them!

luvdahops
04-10-2015, 06:43 PM
Corey was a strong right handed driver who was money from the line. In his prime he was at or near the top in FTA/FGA. What he lacked was court vision and a left hand. He was also just a mediocre defender.

I think Justise will be a much better defender and has shown the ability to handle the ball better, already. I still like the Iguodala comparison. Iggy has had great assist numbers for a small forward. He's a great defender. I think Justise might be a more rounded offensive player of he can continue to improve his shooting.

However, I will be surprised if his offensive game looks like Corey's.

I like Jimmy Butler as a comparison. Former college PF/SF who has evolved into a two-way force and All-star at SG. Also scores a high % of his points from the FT line.

subzero02
04-10-2015, 07:00 PM
There was a poster who said early on that Justise Winslow would wind up having a michael kidd-gilchristesque type season. That poster needs to be commended because in terms of collegiate performance and draft projection he/she was incredibly accurate.

BD80
04-10-2015, 07:19 PM
Agreed! Players with the skill sets possessed by Justise Winslow do not grow on trees.

Sigh. Over 200 years of jurisprudence in this country, founded on a concept thousands of years old ...

and something like Justise is still rare to find

Skitzle
04-11-2015, 12:51 AM
Justice Winslow possibilities

Floor: MKG
Role Player: Kirelenko
Starter: Andre Iguodala 2015
All-star: Andre Iguadala 2008
Super Star: Kawhii Leonard or James Harden
Super Duper Star: Taller Dwyane Wade

I think he ends up between starter and All-star with a 5% chance of super and 1% chance of super duper

Duke95
04-11-2015, 11:26 AM
I would put Winslow at "Super Star" status, with a solid chance at Super Duper Star. His game is absolutely solid.

roywhite
04-11-2015, 11:35 AM
I would put Winslow at "Super Star" status, with a solid chance at Super Duper Star. His game is absolutely solid.

As I've watched the tournament and re-watched the finals a few times, I'm struck by what an outstanding REBOUNDER Justise is. He tracks the ball well, gets off the floor quickly, and grabs hold of the ball surely and strongly. Sometimes it seems like rebounds just come to him, while other players are flat-footed. After grabbing a rebound, he generally knows what to do with it, whether to push it up floor (sometimes spectacularly all the way to the rim) or get it to a primary ball handler. Justise doesn't really project as a "4" for the pros, but I think he still will get a ton of rebounds for his position.

Henderson
04-11-2015, 11:59 AM
If I'm a GM with a pick in the top 2, I don't think I'd be crazy to trade down a few places to take Justise Winslow. In five years, I wouldn't be surprised to be talking about the teams who regret having passed on JW.

Duvall
04-14-2015, 04:36 PM
Winslow to enter NBA Draft. (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=210022058&DB_OEM_ID=4200)


Duke freshman Justise Winslow will enter the 2015 NBA Draft, head coach Mike Krzyzewski announced Tuesday.

“We’re very happy for Justise and his family,” said Krzyzewski. “He had a sensational year, both on and off the court. He was an amazing factor for our success in winning the national championship. From everything we have found out, Justise is projected to be a high lottery pick and we believe that to be true. This is a great time to take advantage of this opportunity. We’re behind him all the way and love him and his family."

NashvilleDevil
04-14-2015, 04:38 PM
Thank you for the sensational season Justise. I'll miss the chase down blocks next season.

Ichabod Drain
04-14-2015, 04:51 PM
Thank you for the sensational season Justise. I'll miss the chase down blocks next season.

Don't worry, G has you covered!

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 04:55 PM
Ah, the next domino falls. It'll be interesting to see now whether we hear from Tyus first or Brandon Ingram first.

I would love to hear from Ingram first and have a day or two to daydream about next season's team having BOTH Tyus and Ingram on it.

In any case, congrats to Justise and Jahlil. What fine young men they are, both on and off the court. Go crush it in the NBA.

Duvall
04-14-2015, 04:58 PM
Ah, the next domino falls. It'll be interesting to see now whether we hear from Tyus first or Brandon Ingram first.

I would love to hear from Ingram first and have a day or two to daydream about next season's team having BOTH Tyus and Ingram on it.

Unfortunately, it sounds like Ingram may be waiting to see whether he will have Tyus around next year to create shots for him, which isn't promising.

flyingdutchdevil
04-14-2015, 05:20 PM
To arguable my favorite freshman ever. Between your Euro steps, fast breaks, and "inadvertent" kicks (;)), I'll miss you.

Also, can you do me a favor? Can you become Lebron-lite (or Lebron-heavy) and prove me right? Thanks, and you're the best.

-FDD

bob blue devil
04-14-2015, 05:31 PM
Unfortunately, it sounds like Ingram may be waiting to see whether he will have Tyus around next year to create shots for him, which isn't promising.

truth or flip?

gurufrisbee
04-14-2015, 05:31 PM
Poop x2.

ncexnyc
04-14-2015, 05:34 PM
It was a short ride, but a most rewarding one for Justise. I never thought we'd only have him for one year as he came to Duke with a reputation as a defensive stud, but his offensive game was suspect.

I think he showed us he was the total package and then some. He's definitely earned his upcoming payday and he will do very well at the next level as he is without a doubt a team oriented type of player.

Thanks for the fantastic season and good luck young man.

SCMatt33
04-14-2015, 05:47 PM
Unfortunately, it sounds like Ingram may be waiting to see whether he will have Tyus around next year to create shots for him, which isn't promising.

No Tyus creating shots for Ingram would still be better than Marcus Paige creating shots for Marcus Paige (or offensive rebounding opportunities for Meeks and Johnson to be precise):cool:

wsb3
04-14-2015, 05:49 PM
I will not be shocked if in the future we look at this draft and deem him the best player. He plays with such an edge to him and did so from day one. He was one of a kind to play for Duke. I knew he was gone but I sure wish it was the old days and I could watch this young man for 3-4 years.

Best of luck..

rsvman
04-14-2015, 05:50 PM
I'm gonna miss him a great deal. I had deluded myself to a small degree that he might choose to stay. Such is life.

Good luck, Justise. Thanks for all your hard work and spectacular plays. Make us proud at the next level, too!

dukebluesincebirth
04-14-2015, 05:53 PM
Chief Justise. Wow. What a season, what a ride. The growth made in 1 short season is mind-blowing. If the NBA truly drafts on potential, they better take Justise # 1, because he's got it. In bunches.
I told my wife I think I had a mancrush on him in the first exhibition game... and I've loved him ever since!
In his statement he said the relationships he formed with the Duke and Durham communities was better than winning the national championship (his boyhood dream). Goose bumps. Class act, and part of the Duke fam forever.

Justise is served!!!!

WillJ
04-14-2015, 05:58 PM
Best wishes to Justise and I'll be a fan in the NBA, but I feel like Kramer calling after Kenny Rogers in the Chicken Roaster episode:)

DukeFanSince1990
04-14-2015, 05:58 PM
I'm gonna miss him a great deal. I had deluded myself to a small degree that he might choose to stay. Such is life.

Good luck, Justise. Thanks for all your hard work and spectacular plays. Make us proud at the next level, too!

5023

Good luck Justise and Jahlil. Thanks for a great season.

Indoor66
04-14-2015, 06:00 PM
I am thrilled to have watched Winslow for this last year. He is the most exciting player at Duke since Gene Banks. I wish both he and Okafor boundless success in the NBA. My wish is that they both play in Miami so I can watch every game. :cool:

Tripping William
04-14-2015, 06:00 PM
*sigh* No peace next year, either, I suppose. Oh well. Very best of luck to JW inThe Association.

Olympic Fan
04-14-2015, 06:03 PM
I will not be shocked if in the future we look at this draft and deem him the best player. He plays with such an edge to him and did so from day one. He was one of a kind to play for Duke. I knew he was gone but I sure wish it was the old days and I could watch this young man for 3-4 years.

Best of luck..

I think this prediction depends on Justise developing a consistent mid-range jump shot.

He's a good enough ballhander, defender, rebounder and open-court player -- and he was a good college 3-point shooter ... all of those things make Justise a sure-fire pro.

The consistent jump shot -- which he's young enough to develop -- makes him an NBA all-star.

Sorry to see you go, Justise, but I wish you all the best.

MCFinARL
04-14-2015, 06:07 PM
*sigh* No peace next year, either, I suppose. Oh well. Very best of luck to JW inThe Association.

I think you mean "no pease."

Think I will miss Justise almost as much as I miss Quinn.

Troublemaker
04-14-2015, 06:17 PM
*sigh* No peace next year, either, I suppose. Oh well. Very best of luck to JW inThe Association.

Justise delayed is justice denied. It was time.

Justise conquers, evermore.

NancyCarol
04-14-2015, 06:22 PM
ah well, all the success in the world to you. (kicks feet in dirt and shuffles off to be sad)

MarkD83
04-14-2015, 08:15 PM
Very elegant statement from Justise.

Keep coming back (hopefully over the summers to earn your degree) to participate in all of the fun that is Duke basketball.

There are several Duke players you would say are great backcourt players or great front court players but only a very few that you would just call great "players".

Justise was a great "player" this year.

If Duke needed a rebound in traffic, Justise was one of the players that could grab it
If Duke needed a great defense play, Justise was one of the players to make the play
If Duke needed a 3-pt shot, Justise was one of the players to hit the shot
If Duke needed a one man fast break, Justise was one of the players to take it coast to coast.
If Duke needed a "play", Justise made a play

Thanks for a great year and for bringing another National Championship to Duke.

moonpie23
04-14-2015, 08:19 PM
hope you tear it up in the league, justise.......thanks for coming to duke!! thanks for the amazing year!!

Newton_14
04-14-2015, 08:22 PM
Chief Justise. Wow. What a season, what a ride. The growth made in 1 short season is mind-blowing. If the NBA truly drafts on potential, they better take Justise # 1, because he's got it. In bunches.
I told my wife I think I had a mancrush on him in the first exhibition game... and I've loved him ever since!
In his statement he said the relationships he formed with the Duke and Durham communities was better than winning the national championship (his boyhood dream). Goose bumps. Class act, and part of the Duke fam forever.

Justise is served!!!!
Great post. Thanks. I wanted to add a few thoughts. I have the same mancrush. He is just my favorite player in a long time, maybe ever, which is saying something. Were this a different era and he stayed all 4 years I would probably have cried the entire 40 minutes of his final home game, which would have come against UNC. He projected to be a 2000 point scorer, and would have also put up high numbers (for his position) in both rebounds and assists. The consummate team player. I said after the open practice, that he had a unique talent in the ability to drive hard to the basket with both power and grace. Nothing fazed this kid. Nothing. He had the toughness of Kyle Singler, and the grace of Grant Hill. Could defend four positions adequately, and likely could have defended the 5 position for short stretches in a pinch. Solid outside shot, threat from 3, solid rebounder, solid ball handler, good court vision, understood the game at a high level. His jersey would have hung from the rafters for sure. Even better though, an outstanding young man and student. I loved the article chronicling his AAU coach and career, and all it revealed about the world travels, the etiquette classes, and I loved the story about his mom insisting he stay in the Catholic Prep School so he would get a great High School education vs giving in and sending him to a basketball factory. Justise isn't just and outstanding basketball player. He is an outstanding human being, and student.

By playing his way into a Top 5 draft pick, he almost had to go. Most want believe it, but I would be willing to bet he actually agonized over his decision. The pressure to leave is tough on kids like him, Jabari, Okafor, etc. I suspect a large part of them do not want to give up the college experience so quickly, but feel compelled to do so. Especially with 99% of the basketball world insisting they are fools if they don't go. It's just the climate we are in, be it right or wrong.

So, I wish him well, hope he goes very high in the draft, and hope he just kills it in the NBA. He helped bring a National Championship home, and nothing can ever take that away.

dukelifer
04-14-2015, 08:35 PM
The kid got better and better. I looked back at my thoughts after the McDonald's game

Not a great shot from what he showed. He will hustle and bang and can get out in transition. He can play elite D. His shot is not awful but has a little hitch. I am not expecting much there. But if he could shoot with his strength- he would be out of here after next year. I expect he will be a multi year player- has work to do for sure.

Well he developed that shot and that was all the difference. Without showing an ability to hit the 3- I am not sure folks would be drooling. It remains to be seen if he has NBA range on that shot. But outside of that- Justise is a warrior. He will make his next team better because he is willing to do all the little things. Looking forward to watching him play with the big boys.

OZ
04-14-2015, 08:40 PM
I wish him the best which is exactly what he gave us... the best. I have never gotten so attached to a player so quickly. I loved every minute that this young man shared with us. I feel very fortunate to have been along for this incredible ride on which he took us. A poker face and a constantly running engine... he was/is special.

bob blue devil
04-14-2015, 08:42 PM
three highly rated freshman came in with huge expectations. i expected them each to be great. what really has shocked me is that each of them individually dramatically surpassed my lofty expectations. despite all the hype, can you ever expect any freshman big man to be as good as big jah was? i don't expect to see a comparable offensive repertoire and touch out of a duke big man in my lifetime. justise, well known for his defensive capabilities, provided an exceptionally diverse and devastating offensive game to go with it - he was so much more than a defensive stopper. tyus, expected to be a great distributor, will also go down in the annals of clutch shot makers - i mean freaking regional and final four MOP and well deserved and not an anomaly relative to his performance for the year.

just beautiful. blue devil fans, enjoy the moment and don't kid yourselves - don't expect the next okafor, winslow or tyus stones to walk through those doors again anytime soon.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-14-2015, 08:45 PM
Okafor was steady and predictably awesome. Justise was something different every game. So much fun to watch, so great to see develop, so much emotion.

I see him as a serious contributor at the next level. I can't wait to see where he lands. I expect he will go very early and be used from day one.

Good luck to both NATIONAL CHAMPIONS

Neals384
04-14-2015, 09:11 PM
Congratulations, Justise! It's a big step, and I believe you are ready. Thanks for the memories!

Utley
04-14-2015, 09:18 PM
Great post. Thanks. I wanted to add a few thoughts. I have the same mancrush. He is just my favorite player in a long time, maybe ever, which is saying something. Were this a different era and he stayed all 4 years I would probably have cried the entire 40 minutes of his final home game, which would have come against UNC. He projected to be a 2000 point scorer, and would have also put up high numbers (for his position) in both rebounds and assists. The consummate team player. I said after the open practice, that he had a unique talent in the ability to drive hard to the basket with both power and grace. Nothing fazed this kid. Nothing. He had the toughness of Kyle Singler, and the grace of Grant Hill. Could defend four positions adequately, and likely could have defended the 5 position for short stretches in a pinch. Solid outside shot, threat from 3, solid rebounder, solid ball handler, good court vision, understood the game at a high level. His jersey would have hung from the rafters for sure. Even better though, an outstanding young man and student. I loved the article chronicling his AAU coach and career, and all it revealed about the world travels, the etiquette classes, and I loved the story about his mom insisting he stay in the Catholic Prep School so he would get a great High School education vs giving in and sending him to a basketball factory. Justise isn't just and outstanding basketball player. He is an outstanding human being, and student.

By playing his way into a Top 5 draft pick, he almost had to go. Most want believe it, but I would be willing to bet he actually agonized over his decision. The pressure to leave is tough on kids like him, Jabari, Okafor, etc. I suspect a large part of them do not want to give up the college experience so quickly, but feel compelled to do so. Especially with 99% of the basketball world insisting they are fools if they don't go. It's just the climate we are in, be it right or wrong.

So, I wish him well, hope he goes very high in the draft, and hope he just kills it in the NBA. He helped bring a National Championship home, and nothing can ever take that away.

Totally with you - I want to be Justise Winslow.

g-money
04-14-2015, 09:41 PM
Good luck at the next level, Justise!! Don't ever lose that warrior mentality.

Also - thanks for Natty #5.

gumbomoop
04-14-2015, 09:41 PM
three highly rated freshman came in with huge expectations. i expected them each to be great. what really has shocked me is that each of them individually dramatically surpassed my lofty expectations. despite all the hype, can you ever expect any freshman big man to be as good as big jah was? i don't expect to see a comparable offensive repertoire and touch out of a duke big man in my lifetime. justise, well known for his defensive capabilities, provided an exceptionally diverse and devastating offensive game to go with it - he was so much more than a defensive stopper. tyus, expected to be a great distributor, will also go down in the annals of clutch shot makers - i mean freaking regional and final four MOP and well deserved and not an anomaly relative to his performance for the year.

just beautiful. blue devil fans, enjoy the moment and don't kid yourselves - don't expect the next okafor, winslow or tyus stones to walk through those doors again anytime soon.

I like bbd's point here. Highly rated -- #1 2014 entering class -- so automatically huge expectations. Rumours, sightings, US summer stuff, international success. Some preseason question of whether Tyus could actually take over PG from Quinn, but pretty early indications from K that Tyus would be the PG, which raised eyebrows but certainly didn't lower expectations. Got huger, in fact. Some preference, perhaps, for flying under radar, but being consensus preseason #3-4 didn't lower expectations, either.

And yet, as bbd says, after a couple of expectation-deflating stumbles, we saw talent that actually exceeded our unreasonable expectations. And bbd provides a compact description of why each of the 3 developed into an excellent player. Beyond excellent, beyond already lofty expectations. Spot on, bbd.

Wait. Grayson? Hints, too, rumours from insiders that Grayson was going to explode. He may have exceeded expectations, too. Somewhat.

Kedsy
04-14-2015, 10:15 PM
Wait. Grayson? Hints, too, rumours from insiders that Grayson was going to explode. He may have exceeded expectations, too. Somewhat.

I think Grayson totally exceed expectations. Was there any point this season, up to and including the day before the Final Four began, where you would have believed someone who told you Grayson Allen would be the star of the championship game and a member of the all-tournament team?

Newton_14
04-14-2015, 10:39 PM
I think Grayson totally exceed expectations. Was there any point this season, up to and including the day before the Final Four began, where you would have believed someone who told you Grayson Allen would be the star of the championship game and a member of the all-tournament team?
No (and I think we need a thread on Grayson to discuss how good we think he will be next season and beyond). No one foresaw Grayson hanging 16 on the Badgers in the title game.

That said, we saw glimpses of his talent throughout the season, when he got rare opportunities. We saw his hops (on display in an incredible left handed block at the rim in one of the earlier games. That block made it on the inspirational video K showed the team the Sunday Night prior to the titel game). We saw his tenacity on defense, the scoring ability behind the line, and on rare occasions, his ability to drive. The Wake game showed us there was potential there to be a high volume scorer somewhere down the line.

We just all thought it was coming next season or the next. After the first four games in the tourney, I felt that Grayson would be able to give us solid play off the bench in the FF without hurting us. Play good defense, give the team a lift, maybe hit a three pointer or two somewhere along the way.

I am still coming to terms with the fact that he hung 8 straight points on the Badgers at the most critical point in the Championship Game no less, and 16 overall.

However, K made a comment in one of the press conferences, that someone here on DBR kind of ridiculed, that I would like to address. K said Grayson was our best driver. What I believe he meant, and what I agree with actually, is that Grayson was our best driver off the dribble in our half court offense. I think that is true and it showed in that title game. In terms of taking it all the way to the rack against defenders of all sizes, I am not sure any of the other kids could do it any better. That bucket against Dekker was just incredible. Up with one hand, protecting with his off hand then back to two hands, before finally finishing it with one was just sick. Tyus nor Quinn nor Matt could attack like that. All 3 would have to use floaters without getting all the way to the rack. Justise could finish at the rack for sure, but he was better at doing that in transition than he was at doing that off the bounce in a half court set.

There was an article that pointed out that on one of the drives, K yelled at Winslow to stay in the corner near the Duke bench, because he wanted the play where Tyus handed off to Grayson who would come from the left wing, take the handoff then drive it right down the gut. It worked.

Grayson will still have growing pains next season for sure. He is not a finished product by any means. But he is for sure one talented dude who very likely will average double figures next season.

gumbomoop
04-14-2015, 11:23 PM
I think Grayson totally exceed expectations. Was there any point this season, up to and including the day before the Final Four began, where you would have believed someone who told you Grayson Allen would be the star of the championship game and a member of the all-tournament team?

I agree with you. My stand-alone-word, "Somewhat," was meant to be a witting punchline rather than an unwitting understatement. I don't use emoticons, but my point was intended to be: Somewhat..... :rolleyes: Or maybe: Somewhat..... :cool:

In hopes that Grayson will next season replicate his several teammates' (not forgetting Quinn, either) expectation-exceeding 2014-15, I expect Grayson to be 2d-team All-American next year.

Trey21
04-14-2015, 11:44 PM
Great post. Thanks. I wanted to add a few thoughts. I have the same mancrush. He is just my favorite player in a long time, maybe ever, which is saying something. Were this a different era and he stayed all 4 years I would probably have cried the entire 40 minutes of his final home game, which would have come against UNC. He projected to be a 2000 point scorer, and would have also put up high numbers (for his position) in both rebounds and assists. The consummate team player. I said after the open practice, that he had a unique talent in the ability to drive hard to the basket with both power and grace. Nothing fazed this kid. Nothing. He had the toughness of Kyle Singler, and the grace of Grant Hill. Could defend four positions adequately, and likely could have defended the 5 position for short stretches in a pinch. Solid outside shot, threat from 3, solid rebounder, solid ball handler, good court vision, understood the game at a high level. His jersey would have hung from the rafters for sure. Even better though, an outstanding young man and student. I loved the article chronicling his AAU coach and career, and all it revealed about the world travels, the etiquette classes, and I loved the story about his mom insisting he stay in the Catholic Prep School so he would get a great High School education vs giving in and sending him to a basketball factory. Justise isn't just and outstanding basketball player. He is an outstanding human being, and student.

By playing his way into a Top 5 draft pick, he almost had to go. Most want believe it, but I would be willing to bet he actually agonized over his decision. The pressure to leave is tough on kids like him, Jabari, Okafor, etc. I suspect a large part of them do not want to give up the college experience so quickly, but feel compelled to do so. Especially with 99% of the basketball world insisting they are fools if they don't go. It's just the climate we are in, be it right or wrong.

So, I wish him well, hope he goes very high in the draft, and hope he just kills it in the NBA. He helped bring a National Championship home, and nothing can ever take that away.

Outstanding post. It is difficult for me to pick a favorite player off of a team as special as this one, but there's something about Winslow's persona and game that I just adore. Duke hasn't had a player like him in a while. Dude was focused and determined but would also show a relentless passion for the game. His game is really interesting to examine. He's a hustler, a guy who isn't afraid to grind it out, in other words he'll do the blue collar work but he has a star-like quality to him where he will just take over the game. I love when players take on the challenge of being dominant on both sides of the ball. A teammate who understands when to make sacrifices and when to lead. On the break he combines Lebron's physicality with Harden's ability to draw contact. Has a jerky eurostep like Manu as well. Would have loved to have him around for another couple years but he's played outstanding basketball this year and deserves a chance to live his dream of being an NBA player.

Watching him improve over the course of the year was one of my favorite things about this season. His shot steadily improved and once he develops a consistent handle he will destroy people in the league. I think he'll be an all star by the time he's 24-25. He will always be a Blue Devil and a national champion. I'll be rooting for you!

BD80
04-15-2015, 09:25 AM
... I think we need a thread on Grayson to discuss how good we think he will be next season and beyond ...

Need is WAY too strong a word.

I think Grayson will average 43-44 mpg (he'll get most of the SG minutes, plus time at PG, SF and even a little at PF because of his leaping ability - does taking the opening tip count as playing center?) He will also cure cancer and win Dancing With the Stars.

There. Don't "need" that thread anymore.

Billy Dat
04-15-2015, 10:16 AM
Pat Forde ‏@YahooForde 19m19 minutes ago
Okafor-Winslow-Jones alongside Davis-MKG-Teague in one-and-done HOF

Troublemaker
04-15-2015, 10:24 AM
Pat Forde ‏@YahooForde 19m19 minutes ago
Okafor-Winslow-Jones alongside Davis-MKG-Teague in one-and-done HOF

Tyus > Teague, and Winslow > MKG, so no matter how you score Okafor vs Davis, I think Duke wins here.

Another victory for our guys!