Way Too Early 2016 Projections

[Olympic Fan]

Personally, I'm going to celebrate for at least 24 hours before I start worrying about next year. But the first 2015-16 projections are starting to pop up.

Here's the one from Gary Parrish at CBS Sports:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25138457/virginia-headlines-ridiculously-early-preseason-top-25-and-one

He has Virginia No. 1, UNC No. 2, Kentucky No. 3, Maryland No. 4 and Kansas No. 5.

He has Duke No. 15 (with the note that if Tyus Jones comes back, Duke moves up), N.C. State No. 16, Miami 21 and FSU 25.

Over at NBC Sports, they have Rob Dauster (never heard of him) posting an early top 25:

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/06/2015-2016-college-basketball-way-too-early-preseason-top-25/

He has UNC No. 1, Iowa State No. 2, Maryland No. 3, Kentucky 4 and Virginia No. 5 (but that's based on his guess that Justin Anderson is gone).

He has NC State No. 12 and Duke No. 14 (but also hedges by saying that if Jones returns, Duke would be top 10), Louisville No. 15 and Notre Dame No. 21.

I'll get into it later, but I think Parrish's poll -- while not perfect -- makes a whole lot more sense.

[brevity]

Eamonn Brennan of ESPN posted his 2015-2016 rankings immediately after the game. For some reason he went #1 Kentucky, then #2 UVA, #3 UNC, #4 Iowa State, #5 Maryland.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/story/_/id/12623594/kentucky-wildcats-headline-early-top-25-ranking-2015-16-men-college-basketball-season

I don't know what the opposite of the phrase "quit while you're ahead" is ("continue while you're behind"?), but Myron Medcalf has bold predictions for next season. #8 is "Wojo orchestrates nation's best turnaround," so that's something.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/106805/bold-predictions-for-2015-16

[Saratoga2]

Lets wait a while and enjoy the championship before considering next year. Really not much to talk about until players from all teams make known their intentions relative to declaring.

[bjornolf]

I don't see how we can take ANY predictions seriously until draft entry is over.

[Skitzle]

Can we start talking about Luke Kennard's playing time?

[Indoor66]

Can we start talking about Luke Kennard's playing time?

Or a 2019 recruiting thread....:mad:

[DavidBenAkiva]

I have nothing to complain about, seeing as I'm still super excited about the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP THE TEAM JUST WON. Now that's out of the way, I can focus on complaining.

I really don't understand the reasoning behind these polls. A lot of guys write about how Kentucky will be at or near the top just because they are always at or near the top. But somehow Duke is going to be mid-teens or maybe even the 20s. We haven't been outside the top 10 in the preseason polls since when? The 1990s? Yet somehow, with admittedly a think group as for now, we are going to break that streak after winning the National Championship? Meanwhile, Izzo, Calipario, and even Bo Ryan are getting their teams ranked on reputation. Whatever.

[hurleyfor3]

I don't see how we can take ANY predictions seriously until draft entry is over.

and the hammer drops on unc

[jv001]

I know we'll soon have a thread on Duke players leaving for the NBA and I don't want to start a rumor regarding early Duke entries. However, I heard on XM radio(Channel 91) one of the announcers say that a paid Duke employee state if Duke won the NCAAT, Tyus is gone. If Duke didn't win the title, he more than likely returns. This announcer would not say who the Duke employee is. It could have been a coach or a food vendor, :cool: so I'm hoping Tyus comes back. GoDuke!

[COYS]

If Tyus goes, I could see how Duke might not be preseason top 10, but I'd be surprised if our recruiting is done and I also think Grayson's breakout will elevate the media's opinion of our returning players.

For me, I think Amile will be surprisingly effective scoring in the post next year, Grayson has flashed serious potential, Luke Kennard will prove to be a particularly poised freshman to help steady the backcourt, Obi, Marshall, and Jeter will give us plenty of options to support Amile in the post and the staff will add at at least two more newcomers in some combination of recruits and/or grad transfers. Duke will win its fair share of games next year with or without Tyus.

[devildeac]

I don't see how we can take ANY predictions seriously until draft entry is over.


Can we start talking about Luke Kennard's playing time?

And the Grayson Allen draft vigil:rolleyes:;).

[Edouble]

Gonna be hard for Grayson not to start next year. He's pretty much proven that he's a gamer in the the biggest game of all.

[Bob Green]

While we are at it, how about 2017? Here is my pitch: in 2010 Duke won the national championship three years after losing to VCU in the R64 (2007). In 2015, Duke won the national championship three years after losing to Lehigh in the R64 (2012). In 2017, Duke will win the national championship three years after losing to Mercer in the R64 (2014). :cool:

I'm feeling pretty good today! :D

[AlbertN]

If Tyus leaves, we don't seem to have any point guards. There are none that I can see on the current roster, and no point guards targeted in the current recruiting class.

Albert

[Duke95]

I think the starters, assuming TJ, JW, and JO all leave will be something like:

Allen
Ingram (if he comes)
Matt Jones/Kennard
Jefferson/Swanigan (if he comes)
Jeter/Obi

Our PG options are somewhat limited unless Thornton re-classifies and chooses Duke.

[duke4ever19]

Lets wait a while and enjoy the championship before considering next year. Really not much to talk about until players from all teams make known their intentions relative to declaring.

People celebrate in their own way. After a successful concert, I use the "high" I get to immediately go back to the piano that night and start thinking about future recital programs.

I also tend to ignore this board after a big win and go on inside Carolina and rupp rafters and laugh at the misery. Some people are just more cynical and sadistic :)

[dukelifer]

I think the starters, assuming TJ, JW, and JO all leave will be something like:

Allen
Ingram (if he comes)
Matt Jones/Kennard
Jefferson/Swanigan (if he comes)
Jeter/Obi

Our PG options are somewhat limited unless Thornton re-classifies and chooses Duke.

What did you do with Marshall? Duke has 7 now and two possible. That is not a lot of players to work with. It will be interesting to see how this develops. The price of a championship- they players get hyped and stock goes up. Jones stock is up but he is not a prototypical NBA point guard.

[Duke95]

What did you do with Marshall? Duke has 7 now and two possible. That is not a lot of players to work with. It will be interesting to see how this develops. The price of a championship- they players get hyped and stock goes up. Jones stock is up but he is not a prototypical NBA point guard.

Yep, I made a mistake. Marshall would be a backup for Jeter and Obi a backup for Jefferson. I doubt we get Swanigan. We may get Ingram.

[jv001]

Yep, I made a mistake. Marshall would be a backup for Jeter and Obi a backup for Jefferson. I doubt we get Swanigan. We may get Ingram.

If MPIII backs up Jeter, I'm afraid we're in deep, deep do-do. I just don't see Jeter as a 5 in his freshman year. But I've been wrong before. Amile or Obi will get the start at the 5 if MPIII doesn't. GoDuke!

[Duke95]

If MPIII backs up Jeter, I'm afraid we're in deep, deep do-do. I just don't see Jeter as a 5 in his freshman year. But I've been wrong before. Amile or Obi will get the start at the 5 if MPIII doesn't. GoDuke!

Problem is, neither Amile nor Marshall is a credible offensive threat. We'd be reduced to hoping we hit the outside shot, unless Obi becomes a force inside. Otherwise, we are weak at the 1 and the 5.

[DavidBenAkiva]

If Tyus goes, I could see how Duke might not be preseason top 10, but I'd be surprised if our recruiting is done and I also think Grayson's breakout will elevate the media's opinion of our returning players.

For me, I think Amile will be surprisingly effective scoring in the post next year, Grayson has flashed serious potential, Luke Kennard will prove to be a particularly poised freshman to help steady the backcourt, Obi, Marshall, and Jeter will give us plenty of options to support Amile in the post and the staff will add at at least two more newcomers in some combination of recruits and/or grad transfers. Duke will win its fair share of games next year with or without Tyus.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that Amile could be surprisingly effective because he has already been surprisingly effective around the rim for the pats two seasons. He's averaged 64% shooting in his last two years. That's darn good, and we can expect him to take up some of the scoring load as a senior. He's just so darn crafty around the rim. If he would just turn and assert himself more, he would contribute by scoring.

Tyus, to me, is the key to the whole season. If he stays, we are going to have a darn good team. He can break down defenders on the perimeter and distribute to open players on the perimeter or the post. Allen has certainly demonstrated a real flair for driving to the hoop. He's just not on the same level as a distributor. If Tyus stays, then Allen, Matt Jones, and the post players can all get buckets by Tyus Jones's ability to facilitate the offense.

On the other hand, this could be a one of the better defensive teams we have had in a while. Matt Jones and Grayson Allen are tenacious defenders. Amile and Marshall are also very good and will be seniors. If Chase Jeter, Sean Obi, and Luke Kennard are at least average or better on defense, it could be a very good team.

[tux]

What did you do with Marshall? Duke has 7 now and two possible. That is not a lot of players to work with. It will be interesting to see how this develops. The price of a championship- they players get hyped and stock goes up. Jones stock is up but he is not a prototypical NBA point guard.

He's definitely not a scoring guard, like Kyrie OR a great shooter (yet) like Curry. But he just IMO had a better freshman campaign than Chris Paul, who I feel plays the same below-the-rim, fundamentally sound way that Tyus plays and is working toward. Tyler Ennis may be a fair comparison in terms of steady play coupled with a killer instinct. Ennis is playing about 10 MPG and averaging a couple points.

The big question for Tyus is whether he wants to be in the NBA next year probably playing a reserve role or stay one more year and work on his game in college. I could see him getting drafted in the last third of the first round this year and maybe moving up into the second third after another year (15-20). He doesn't strike me as a future lottery pick.

It's so hard to say which path would lead to a better future financially. He would probably be the "face" of Duke's team next year and will have a ton of opportunities to expand his game, which could help in terms of endorsements. Would another year to mature make sticking in the league more likely? You could go either way on this.

Okafor and Winslow have relatively easy decisions IMO. Tyus has a very tough choice --- may come down to how he feels about being at Duke without his best friend. (Always felt William Avery left in 1999 mainly b/c he didn't want to hang out at Duke without Brand and Maggette.)

[dukelifer]

He's definitely not a scoring guard, like Kyrie OR a great shooter (yet) like Curry. But he just IMO had a better freshman campaign than Chris Paul, who I feel plays the same below-the-rim, fundamentally sound way that Tyus plays and is working toward. Tyler Ennis may be a fair comparison in terms of steady play coupled with a killer instinct. Ennis is playing about 10 MPG and averaging a couple points.

The big question for Tyus is whether he wants to be in the NBA next year probably playing a reserve role or stay one more year and work on his game in college. I could see him getting drafted in the last third of the first round this year and maybe moving up into the second third after another year (15-20). He doesn't strike me as a future lottery pick.

It's so hard to say which path would lead to a better future financially. He would probably be the "face" of Duke's team next year and will have a ton of opportunities to expand his game, which could help in terms of endorsements. Would another year to mature make sticking in the league more likely? You could go either way on this.

Okafor and Winslow have relatively easy decisions IMO. Tyus has a very tough choice --- may come down to how he feels about being at Duke without his best friend. (Always felt William Avery left in 1999 mainly b/c he didn't want to hang out at Duke without Brand and Maggette.)

Not sure sure about Paul. First he played two years at Wake. Also he was a career 47% 3 point shooter over two years- that is really good. I think Paul is an inherently better shooter- better mechanics. I also am not sure that Tyus has NBA range. This is not to disrespect Tyus- but Paul is a very good NBA shooter and showed that at Wake. If Tyus can shoot at that level- he will have a long NBA career- no question. Not convinced yet- even though he has shown himself to be a great clutch shooter.

[Olympic Fan]

Agree that Tyus has a tough choice to make ... just one small factor (not a determinant either way). Some kids aren't real students and are happy to leave the books behind (Avery for example).

Tyus made the academic All-ACC team, so I would guess that he's comfortable in the classroom. Not saying that influences him to stay -- just that the academics don't influence him to go.

At the same time, Justise Winslow made the academic All-ACC team too and I have little hope of him returning.

[DarkstarWahoo]

For what it's worth, those UVA rankings are going to tumble at least 5 spots, probably more, when Justin Anderson declares.

[CDu]

For what it's worth, those UVA rankings are going to tumble at least 5 spots, probably more, when Justin Anderson declares.

Yeah, IF Anderson declares, UVa loses a lot in Atkins and Anderson. They'll still have a VERY good starting five, but then depth becomes a question. Hopefully for you guys, either Anderson stays or some of the young guys make a jump next year.

[Troublemaker]

For what it's worth, those UVA rankings are going to tumble at least 5 spots, probably more, when Justin Anderson declares.

Is this a reverse jinx attempt, Darkstar, or are there legitimate rumblings about Anderson going?

I'm sort of torn about what to root for here. Under normal circumstances, I'd want him to go -- just as I'm sure UVA fans are rooting for Okafor, Winslow, and Jones to depart -- but Duke has that rivalry with UNC and we may end up relying on you guys to block them from achieving nice things next season. It'd be nice if the NCAA could step in and take care of that for us, though.

[Kedsy]

But he just IMO had a better freshman campaign than Chris Paul, who I feel plays the same below-the-rim, fundamentally sound way that Tyus plays and is working toward. Tyler Ennis may be a fair comparison in terms of steady play coupled with a killer instinct. Ennis is playing about 10 MPG and averaging a couple points.


As much as I like Tyus, he's no Chris Paul. Yeah, they're about the same size, and both really good passers, but in addition to dukelifer's points (Paul played two years at Wake and was a better shooter and scorer than Tyus), Paul's biggest strengths are Tyus's biggest weaknesses, namely: Paul has very quick feet, while Tyus really doesn't; and Paul is an outstanding defender, possibly the best defender in the NBA, while Tyus is an adequate-to-below-average college defender who would be in the lowest tier of PG-defenders in the NBA.

Tyler Ennis is a better comp, and he was drafted 18th, but he's almost two inches taller and has a two inch longer wingspan than Tyus, so I'd say he sort of represents a ceiling for Tyus, that may not be attained, unless Tyus demonstrates some skill that Ennis doesn't have, but right now I don't see that. And if 18th in the draft, with little playing time as a rookie and little prospect of becoming anything other than a backup PG, is a ceiling, then I agree with those who say Tyus has a difficult decision ahead.

[CDu]

As much as I like Tyus, he's no Chris Paul. Yeah, they're about the same size, and both really good passers, but in addition to dukelifer's points (Paul played two years at Wake and was a better shooter and scorer than Tyus), Paul's biggest strengths are Tyus's biggest weaknesses, namely: Paul has very quick feet, while Tyus really doesn't; and Paul is an outstanding defender, possibly the best defender in the NBA, while Tyus is an adequate-to-below-average college defender who would be in the lowest tier of PG-defenders in the NBA.

Tyler Ennis is a better comp, and he was drafted 18th, but he's almost two inches taller and has a two inch longer wingspan than Tyus, so I'd say he sort of represents a ceiling for Tyus, that may not be attained, unless Tyus demonstrates some skill that Ennis doesn't have, but right now I don't see that. And if 18th in the draft, with little playing time as a rookie and little prospect of becoming anything other than a backup PG, is a ceiling, then I agree with those who say Tyus has a difficult decision ahead.

I think Jones is a little more capable as a scoring PG than Ennis, but otherwise I agree. That being said, Jones' ability to take over games as a scorer several times this year has been really impressive. Not sure if that will resonate with scouts, but it certainly doesn't hurt that he had a monster championship game.

[hudlow]

I'm already jonesing for one more game.....just one more.

[Kedsy]

I think Jones is a little more capable as a scoring PG than Ennis, but otherwise I agree. That being said, Jones' ability to take over games as a scorer several times this year has been really impressive. Not sure if that will resonate with scouts, but it certainly doesn't hurt that he had a monster championship game.

I agree it doesn't hurt. I also agree Tyus has been a "clutch" scorer who seems to step up in big games and take games over when his team needed him. That said, Ennis scored 12.9 ppg at Syracuse last year and Tyus scored 11.8 ppg this year, so I'm not sure Tyus will be perceived as a better scorer. And if I recall correctly, Ennis also seemed to carry his team on his shoulders when the going got tough. I also wonder whether NBA scouts will think Tyus can maintain his scoring ability when he's being guarded by, e.g., Chris Paul.

[InSpades]

I had thought Tyus would come back... but after that game I can't see it making any sense. Yes, he has his limitations as a player (mostly his size and quickness) but those things aren't likely to change. He needs to work on things (3-point shooting, finishing around the rim against real bigs, creating shots for others) but these are all things he can work on at the next level. His stock is super high right now. If he's guaranteed 1st rounder then he has to go and I wish him the best. I'd love to have him back but he gave us a wonderful ride and if that's all we get... that's enough.

[CDu]

I agree it doesn't hurt. I also agree Tyus has been a "clutch" scorer who seems to step up in big games and take games over when his team needed him. That said, Ennis scored 12.9 ppg at Syracuse last year and Tyus scored 11.8 ppg this year, so I'm not sure Tyus will be perceived as a better scorer. And if I recall correctly, Ennis also seemed to carry his team on his shoulders when the going got tough. I also wonder whether NBA scouts will think Tyus can maintain his scoring ability when he's being guarded by, e.g., Chris Paul.

The counterargument would be that Jones' lower scoring average reflects that Duke had three other scorers to whom Jones often deferred. Duke rarely needed him to score big.

[Kedsy]

His stock is super high right now.

People always say this, but is it really true? This is an honest question -- how much stock do NBA GMs put into NCAA tournament performance? Would his stock be higher or lower if he averaged 15 ppg and 10 apg next season but tanked in the Tournament?

[COYS]

People always say this, but is it really true? This is an honest question -- how much stock do NBA GMs put into NCAA tournament performance? Would his stock be higher or lower if he averaged 15 ppg and 10 apg next season but tanked in the Tournament?

I agree with the sentiment of Kedsy's question. I mean, Jabari's stock didn't tumble at all last season despite flaming out in the first round. It's not like Tyus hadn't already owned Wisconsin in a game earlier in the season. In fact, Tyus had played like a star in most of Duke's biggest games. I could see a GM taking his Championship game performance into account if there were a need for a tie-breaker in deciding between Tyus and another late-first-round talent. Then a GM could think, we had Tyus and, say, Caris LeVert from Michigan as more or less equal on our big board. They're both available for the 22nd pick and we want one of them. Tyus' composure in big games, particularly the Championship game makes me more comfortable with him, all else being equal. Let's pull the trigger.

But I can't imagine a GM thinking, man, that dude dominated the National Championship game. We had him pegged as a late first rounder, but, what the heck, let's spend a lottery pick on him.

[Kedsy]

The counterargument would be that Jones' lower scoring average reflects that Duke had three other scorers to whom Jones often deferred. Duke rarely needed him to score big.

Well, Ennis had the same thing: Fair (16.5 ppg), Cooney (12.1 ppg), and Grant (12.1 ppg). Syracuse didn't need him to score big either, and when they did, he carried his team. FWIW, Tyus had 7 games of 18+ points and Ennis had 8 such games. I'm not just arguing for argument's sake, I think the two were very similar scorers in college.

[Wander]

People always say this, but is it really true? This is an honest question -- how much stock do NBA GMs put into NCAA tournament performance? Would his stock be higher or lower if he averaged 15 ppg and 10 apg next season but tanked in the Tournament?

I think you can help your stock with a consistently great tournament performance over 4-6 tournament games - with the best example this year being Justise. But, no, I don't think Tyus' one performance in the championship game mattered very much.

[KandG]

People always say this, but is it really true? This is an honest question -- how much stock do NBA GMs put into NCAA tournament performance? Would his stock be higher or lower if he averaged 15 ppg and 10 apg next season but tanked in the Tournament?

The answer should be: NCAA tournament performance is just part of an overall holistic evaluation of a player's strengths & weaknesses over the course of an entire season, and the ability of a player to transfer those strengths to the next level based on physical ability and ability to develop and improve.

The reality for players this young is that NCAA tournament performance can have a disproportionate effect if it's highly visible. This is why scouts that have been interviewed about Tyus' prospects overwhelmingly favor his going now -- there's a very real halo effect around his outstanding championship game performance, coupled with whatever minimal uncertainty there is around his upside at his age.

I asked someone I know who does draft evaluations why scouts who are critical of Tyus' limitations would recommend he go if most GMs don't rate him higher than a low first round pick, and he said bluntly that it's like playing a stock -- you try to find a buyer when it's at its highest level and have the best chance of selling, even if a majority of people understand the underlying fundamentals may not support that stock as a long term play. All it takes is one GM to be enamored with a player beyond what objective evaluations spell out.

[MChambers]

I agree with the sentiment of Kedsy's question. I mean, Jabari's stock didn't tumble at all last season despite flaming out in the first round. It's not like Tyus hadn't already owned Wisconsin in a game earlier in the season. In fact, Tyus had played like a star in most of Duke's biggest games. I could see a GM taking his Championship game performance into account if there were a need for a tie-breaker in deciding between Tyus and another late-first-round talent. Then a GM could think, we had Tyus and, say, Caris LeVert from Michigan as more or less equal on our big board. They're both available for the 22nd pick and we want one of them. Tyus' composure in big games, particularly the Championship game makes me more comfortable with him, all else being equal. Let's pull the trigger.

But I can't imagine a GM thinking, man, that dude dominated the National Championship game. We had him pegged as a late first rounder, but, what the heck, let's spend a lottery pick on him.
Tyus didn't just dominate the championship game. He was MOP of the South Region and of the Final Four. He had a lot of help, of course, but I still think NBA GMs pay attention to this. See May, Sean.

I don't know how far this moves him up the draft board, but it helps some, no doubt. I hope he stays, because I think the Tyler Ennis comparison is a good one, but if his dream is to play in the NBA, and he doesn't want to wait, I understand.

[duke09hms]

I REALLY hope Justin Anderson stays. We need as many stacked teams next year to keep UNC from winning a chip.

Didn't Arizona's Derrick Williams turn one great game against Duke in the 2011 SS into a #2 draft pick? Now he barely plays. Still remember the talking heads saying he should have been the #1 pick over Kyrie LOLZ.

Anyway, of course I hope Tyus stays, but I can't blame him if he leaves, especially if his best friend is leaving at the same time. The personal reasons weigh heavy on teenagers. Solution: they could all return, sweep UNC again, and repeat!

[DarkstarWahoo]

Is this a reverse jinx attempt, Darkstar, or are there legitimate rumblings about Anderson going?

I'm sort of torn about what to root for here. Under normal circumstances, I'd want him to go -- just as I'm sure UVA fans are rooting for Okafor, Winslow, and Jones to depart -- but Duke has that rivalry with UNC and we may end up relying on you guys to block them from achieving nice things next season. It'd be nice if the NCAA could step in and take care of that for us, though.

Legitimate rumblings. I've got a family member in the college hoops business who swears up and down that Anderson is definitely gone - I don't want to name any names, but the person he heard it from would definitely know. If we're going to Kevin Bacon it, he's two degrees away and his source is directly connected.

The counterpoint: if Anderson is leaving, his April Fool's prank (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2015/04/02/justin-anderson-pranks-virginia-basketball-fans-on-april-fools-day/) plays as pretty cruel, and I don't think he's that guy. But he could have just not thought it through.

I'd go if I were him.

EDITED TO ADD: I hate to be "that guy," and I'll come back and name the source later. Just don't want to do it now.

[CDu]

Well, Ennis had the same thing: Fair (16.5 ppg), Cooney (12.1 ppg), and Grant (12.1 ppg). Syracuse didn't need him to score big either, and when they did, he carried his team. FWIW, Tyus had 7 games of 18+ points and Ennis had 8 such games. I'm not just arguing for argument's sake, I think the two were very similar scorers in college.

I wouldn't say Fair and Cooney are a parallel to Okafor and Cook. Further, note that Ennis was the #2 scorer on that team. Also, I note you chose 18 as your arbitrary threshold. If you bump the threshold to 20, and it favors Jones (7 to 5). Jones also had a higher TS% and eFG%. So I think it is fair to hold the belief that Jones is the more capable scorer. I do admit there is some subjectivity to this belief.

Now, do I think Jones would go higher than #18 in the draft? That all depends on whether he impresses the right team in the middle of the draft.

[duke79]

I had thought Tyus would come back... but after that game I can't see it making any sense. Yes, he has his limitations as a player (mostly his size and quickness) but those things aren't likely to change. He needs to work on things (3-point shooting, finishing around the rim against real bigs, creating shots for others) but these are all things he can work on at the next level. His stock is super high right now. If he's guaranteed 1st rounder then he has to go and I wish him the best. I'd love to have him back but he gave us a wonderful ride and if that's all we get... that's enough.

I'm no basketball expert, and certainly Tyus is a great college player and will continue to be a great college player if he stays at Duke, but I wonder if his current game will translate well to the NBA? I have little doubt about Okafur and Winslow doing well at the next level, but I worry that Tyus does not have the size and speed to play at the next level. I hope he decides to stay at Duke for at least one more year.

[Troublemaker]

Legitimate rumblings. I've got a family member in the college hoops business who swears up and down that Anderson is definitely gone - I don't want to name any names, but the person he heard it from would definitely know. If we're going to Kevin Bacon it, he's two degrees away and his source is directly connected.

The counterpoint: if Anderson is leaving, his April Fool's prank (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2015/04/02/justin-anderson-pranks-virginia-basketball-fans-on-april-fools-day/) plays as pretty cruel, and I don't think he's that guy. But he could have just not thought it through.

I'd go if I were him.

EDITED TO ADD: I hate to be "that guy," and I'll come back and name the source later. Just don't want to do it now.

Gotcha. Thanks for following up!

[Kedsy]

Didn't Arizona's Derrick Williams turn one great game against Duke in the 2011 SS into a #2 draft pick? Now he barely plays.

It seems Duke fans like to say this, but Derrick Williams was 2nd team All American and PAC 10 player of the year in 2011. He averaged 19.5 ppg and 8.3 rpg and led the nation in eFG% and true shooting percentage (including shooting 56.8% from three-point range). The year before he was on the All-American freshman team, after going for 15.7 ppg and 7.1 rpg. So, maybe he "turn[ed] one great game against Duke into a #2 pick," or maybe he had lots of great games and was one of the best players in a meh draft, and just happened to be a tweener who turned out to be not quite skilled enough to succeed at SF in the NBA and not quite big enough to succeed at PF in the NBA.

[duke09hms]

It seems Duke fans like to say this, but Derrick Williams was 2nd team All American and PAC 10 player of the year in 2011. He averaged 19.5 ppg and 8.3 rpg and led the nation in eFG% and true shooting percentage (including shooting 56.8% from three-point range). The year before he was on the All-American freshman team, after going for 15.7 ppg and 7.1 rpg. So, maybe he "turn[ed] one great game against Duke into a #2 pick," or maybe he had lots of great games and was one of the best players in a meh draft, and just happened to be a tweener who turned out to be not quite skilled enough to succeed at SF in the NBA and not quite big enough to succeed at PF in the NBA.

haha damn! I like my version better ...

[Mal]

The big question for Tyus is whether he wants to be in the NBA next year probably playing a reserve role or stay one more year and work on his game in college. I could see him getting drafted in the last third of the first round this year and maybe moving up into the second third after another year (15-20). He doesn't strike me as a future lottery pick.

It's so hard to say which path would lead to a better future financially.

I don't know the NBA, but it strikes me that moving up in the draft likely helps Tyus' ability to make an impact/stick in the pros in more ways than one. First and most obviously, if he's seen as a 15th draft choice rather than 28th, then there's a reason for it and his game has made strides. But also, it would mean he more likely gets drafted by a team that actually needs him. I could very easily see a guy like Tyus getting drafted at the end of the first round by some team that's winning 55 games a season, and then really struggling to stick out or prove his worth, and getting lost in the shuffle. I'd rather see him end up on a mediocre or worse team with shaky guard play and a couple guys who just need someone to take care of the ball and distribute to them, where his value could be seen more quickly.

This is sort of contra the way I felt about Redick - I had hoped he'd fall in the draft to a team that needed a piece instead of to someone that wanted him to be a more complete player than he was. Don't know if that was the right or wrong way to be thinking about it, though.

[Kedsy]

I wouldn't say Fair and Cooney are a parallel to Okafor and Cook. Further, note that Ennis was the #2 scorer on that team. Also, I note you chose 18 as your arbitrary threshold. If you bump the threshold to 20, and it favors Jones (7 to 5). Jones also had a higher TS% and eFG%. So I think it is fair to hold the belief that Jones is the more capable scorer. I do admit there is some subjectivity to this belief.

Now, do I think Jones would go higher than #18 in the draft? That all depends on whether he impresses the right team in the middle of the draft.

If Ennis had three teammates who averaged more than 12 ppg (including one at 16.5 ppg) and yet he was still the #2 scorer on the team, wouldn't that argue for him being a more capable scorer than Tyus, who with similarly high scoring teammates was the #4 scorer on his team?

Also, I chose 18 before I'd even looked at Tyus's game log, but even if you go with your arbitrary threshold of 20, I wouldn't say having seven 20+ games vs. having five 20+ games would make Tyus appear to be a much better scorer, especially when Ennis had a 19 point game and two 18 point games (and five 16 or 17 point games while Tyus had four), while Tyus had nothing higher than 17 but fewer than 20. More importantly, it's hard to imagine a pro scout or GM looking at both players' numbers and saying that Tyus had a decided advantage over Ennis as a scorer. Certainly not enough of a better scorer (if at all) to justify taking him earlier than Ennis when Ennis is two inches taller.

[CDu]

If Ennis had three teammates who averaged more than 12 ppg (including one at 16.5 ppg) and yet he was still the #2 scorer on the team, wouldn't that argue for him being a more capable scorer than Tyus, who with similarly high scoring teammates was the #4 scorer on his team?

The opposite: Jones scored almost as much despite playing fewer minutes per game and despite having two much better scorers than Fair and Cooney and a third scorer as good as Ennis suggests to me that Jones


Also, I chose 18 before I'd even looked at Tyus's game log, but even if you go with your arbitrary threshold of 20, I wouldn't say having seven 20+ games vs. having five 20+ games would make Tyus appear to be a much better scorer, especially when Ennis had a 19 point game and two 18 point games (and five 16 or 17 point games while Tyus had four), while Tyus had nothing higher than 17 but fewer than 20. More importantly, it's hard to imagine a pro scout or GM looking at both players' numbers and saying that Tyus had a decided advantage over Ennis as a scorer. Certainly not enough of a better scorer (if at all) to justify taking him earlier than Ennis when Ennis is two inches taller.

first, I don't think I said "much better scorer." I said more capable scorer. And given the fact that he had more scoring competition and less need to score, and based on the better efficiency numbers, I think it is a reasonable view. As I said there is some subjectivity, because part of the argument is based on the guys around him.

As for the last sentence of your post, I would probably steer clear clear of absolutes like Jones' body of work "certainly" isn't enough to get picked earlier than 18. I could see Jones going anywhere from 15 to 30. It all depends on who he impresses. The draft isn't a consensus. Ennis wasn't necessarily the consensus #18 pick - he just was the right pick for the team picking 18 last year. Jones doesn't have to be the consensus 15th pick per se. He just has to be right for that team at that pick. I don't think those two inches in height matter all that much. Shorter players have gone higher (e.g., DJ Augustin); taller players have gone lower. If he was 5'8", maybe it matters. And he probably won't ever be a top-5 pick because of his height, but once you hit the teens you get to teams picking for a productive player rather than a superstar, and at that point his height isn't nearly the problem that we see at the top of the draft.

[Kedsy]

As for the last sentence of your post, I would probably steer clear clear of absolutes like Jones' body of work "certainly" isn't enough to get picked earlier than 18. I could see Jones going anywhere from 15 to 30. It all depends on who he impresses. The draft isn't a consensus. Ennis wasn't necessarily the consensus #18 pick - he just was the right pick for the team picking 18 last year. Jones doesn't have to be the consensus 15th pick per se. He just has to be right for that team at that pick. I don't think those two inches in height matter all that much. Shorter players have gone higher (e.g., DJ Augustin); taller players have gone lower. If he was 5'8", maybe it matters. And he probably won't ever be a top-5 pick because of his height, but once you hit the teens you get to teams picking for a productive player rather than a superstar, and at that point his height isn't nearly the problem that we see at the top of the draft.

Fair enough. I still see Ennis as more or less of a ceiling for Tyus, but I also don't perceive a significant difference between being chosen, e.g., 16th vs. 18th vs. 20th. The question remains whether getting drafted somewhere between 15 and 30 (as you predict) with prospects for sporadic minutes as a rookie with an "upside" of a backup PG down the road would be enough to forego another year of being a star in college. I'm honestly not sure what I'd choose if I were in his position.

Also, it's not solely his height that's the potential issue for Tyus as an NBA player. It's his height combined with a relative lack of lateral quickness. Augustin, for example, is a much quicker guard than either Tyus or Ennis, perhaps explaining his better draft position.

[CDu]

Fair enough. I still see Ennis as more or less of a ceiling for Tyus, but I also don't perceive a significant difference between being chosen, e.g., 16th vs. 18th vs. 20th. The question remains whether getting drafted somewhere between 15 and 30 (as you predict) with prospects for sporadic minutes as a rookie with an "upside" of a backup PG down the road would be enough to forego another year of being a star in college. I'm honestly not sure what I'd choose if I were in his position.

Also, it's not solely his height that's the potential issue for Tyus as an NBA player. It's his height combined with a relative lack of lateral quickness. Augustin, for example, is a much quicker guard than either Tyus or Ennis, perhaps explaining his better draft position.

I honestly have no idea what to think of Jones' ceiling. Mainly because part of my premise is that he picks and chooses his spots so much. I THINK he has a higher ceiling than Ennis, but it's hard to know where he would be if he was asked to star more consistently. Maybe the "upside" isn't a backup PG for him; maybe he is a legitimate starter if given the opportunity. He was rarely asked to dominate, but there he was dominating in the most critical of times when we needed him most, just as he did against UNC in bringing us back from an awful loss at home, just as he did in the first match versus Wisconsin. Maybe not; we may get an opportunity to find out if he stays next year.

So there is the murkiness of the decision to begin with (even if you assume a ceiling of backup PG) and there is the murkiness of where that ceiling really is (or more importantly, where HE thinks that ceiling really is). I highly suspect that he doesn't share your viewpoint that his ceiling is that of a "backup PG down the road" in the NBA.

[Kedsy]

I highly suspect that he doesn't share your viewpoint that his ceiling is that of a "backup PG down the road" in the NBA.

Nor should he share it. One should always strive to go farther.

That said, I strongly suspect his ability to dominate would be adversely affected having to guard and be guarded by the majority of NBA PGs. Lots of fabulous college players can't reproduce their fabulosity at the next level.

[Saratoga2]

There is certainly a lot of competition among players who declare for the draft, seniors and foreign players. Getting drafted in the first round is no sure thing unless a player is clearly superior and NBA ready. I knnow there will be a string on the subject of who will declare, but just from Kentucky ESPN is indicating that Willie Cauley Stein, Andrew and Aaron Harrison, Trey Lyles, and Carl Anthony Townes are likely to declare and Devin Booker and Dakari Johnson are possibles. Add all teams and foreign players and there will be more declaring than the NBA has positions. Maybe there won't be many pure point guards but Tyus should really consider if he can expect first round treatment. I know coach K will give him good advice.

[CDu]

Nor should he share it. One should always strive to go farther.

That said, I strongly suspect his ability to dominate would be adversely affected having to guard and be guarded by the majority of NBA PGs. Lots of fabulous college players can't reproduce their fabulosity at the next level.

Sure. The odds are going to be against him, just like they are for almost every college player going pro. My point was that he isn't making the decision from your viewpoint. He is likely weighing his options based on the belief that he's better than you think he is. So he isn't likely to make a decision corresponding to that viewpoint, regardless of whether or not your assessment is correct.

By the way, if we're going to toss out comps based on smallish, not-overly-athletic college PGs, I'll throw this one out there: Mike Bibby.

Like Bibby, Jones is 6'1", cerca 190lbs. Like Jones, Bibby wasn't known for overwhelming athleticism. Like Jones, Bibby led his team to a national championship as a freshman PG. Like Jones, Bibby was not known as a good defender. Like Jones, Bibby's freshman year numbers weren't staggering; he was more of an acquired taste. Bibby of course went on to have a terrific sophomore season (17.2 ppg and 5.7 apg) and a terrific NBA career.

Now, that's certainly not to say that I think Jones has a future similar to Bibby's career. The odds are very much against any player having as good a career as Bibby's. Just saying that I wouldn't rule it out simply based on size and perceived lack of quickness (it remains to be seen what level of quickness he shows at the combine; he doesn't ever seem too slow out there).

[CDu]

There is certainly a lot of competition among players who declare for the draft, seniors and foreign players. Getting drafted in the first round is no sure thing unless a player is clearly superior and NBA ready. I knnow there will be a string on the subject of who will declare, but just from Kentucky ESPN is indicating that Willie Cauley Stein, Andrew and Aaron Harrison, Trey Lyles, and Carl Anthony Townes are likely to declare and Devin Booker and Dakari Johnson are possibles. Add all teams and foreign players and there will be more declaring than the NBA has positions. Maybe there won't be many pure point guards but Tyus should really consider if he can expect first round treatment. I know coach K will give him good advice.

I would expect that Jones is ahead of both Harrisons and Dakari Johnson on draft boards. And he might be ahead of Devin Booker too. And really he should be focusing on the PGs that declare: theoretically Mudiay will be there and he'll be ahead of Jones for sure. D'Angelo Russell (if you consider him a PG) will certainly go ahead of him. After that? Not much there. Maybe Cameron Payne of Murray State, maybe not. He's looking like the #3 or #4 PG potentially available. That isn't going to be affected by back-end of the first-round/second-round bigs and wings.

[Kedsy]

Sure. The odds are going to be against him, just like they are for almost every college player going pro. My point was that he isn't making the decision from your viewpoint. He is likely weighing his options based on the belief that he's better than you think he is. So he isn't likely to make a decision corresponding to that viewpoint, regardless of whether or not your assessment is correct.

By the way, if we're going to toss out comps based on smallish, not-overly-athletic college PGs, I'll throw this one out there: Mike Bibby.

Like Bibby, Jones is 6'1", cerca 190lbs. Like Jones, Bibby wasn't known for overwhelming athleticism. Like Jones, Bibby led his team to a national championship as a freshman PG. Like Jones, Bibby was not known as a good defender. Like Jones, Bibby's freshman year numbers weren't staggering; he was more of an acquired taste. Bibby of course went on to have a terrific sophomore season (17.2 ppg and 5.7 apg) and a terrific NBA career.

Now, that's certainly not to say that I think Jones has a future similar to Bibby's career. The odds are very much against any player having as good a career as Bibby's. Just saying that I wouldn't rule it out simply based on size and perceived lack of quickness (it remains to be seen what level of quickness he shows at the combine; he doesn't ever seem too slow out there).

Bibby's an interesting comp. I wonder how successful he'd be if he came out today, compared with almost 20 years ago?

Also, when you say stuff like "the belief that he's better than you [Kedsy] think he is," you seem to be implying that I don't think Tyus is very good. And that's completely untrue. I think he's great, and think he would be an All American-level star if he returned to Duke next season. But the NBA game is very different from the college game. The list of guys who couldn't carve out starting NBA roles in recent years is littered with great college players at all positions who were just a little too short and/or whose feet were not quite quick enough and/or weren't quite able to defend bigger, quicker players. Tyus would seem to potentially fall into all three of these pits, which suggests the odds against him starring or even starting are probably longer than a lot of other first-round level guys who hope to transition from college to the League.

[jimsumner]

Draftniks feel that the 2016 NBA draft will be weaker than the 2015 draft, perhaps significantly weaker. Not a lot of buzz about this year's high-school seniors turned next year's OAD.

So, Jones could go much higher next season without actually improving much.

Of course, this also applies to Devin Booker, Justin Anderson, anyone else on the fence. If enough of them decide to come back, maybe the 2016 draft isn't so bad after all.

But it might be a consideration.

[CDu]

Bibby's an interesting comp. I wonder how successful he'd be if he came out today, compared with almost 20 years ago?

Also, when you say stuff like "the belief that he's better than you [Kedsy] think he is," you seem to be implying that I don't think Tyus is very good. And that's completely untrue. I think he's great, and think he would be an All American-level star if he returned to Duke next season. But the NBA game is very different from the college game. The list of guys who couldn't carve out starting NBA roles in recent years is littered with great college players at all positions who were just a little too short and/or whose feet were not quite quick enough and/or weren't quite able to defend bigger, quicker players. Tyus would seem to potentially fall into all three of these pits, which suggests the odds against him starring or even starting are probably longer than a lot of other first-round level guys who hope to transition from college to the League.

Oh I wasn't intending to imply you don't think he is good. Just that he probably thinks he better (NBA wise) than you think. You have said you see his ceiling as NBA backup (which is, as you state, still really good). If he thinks he can be a starter, then by definition he thinks he's better than you think he is.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Legitimate rumblings. I've got a family member in the college hoops business who swears up and down that Anderson is definitely gone - I don't want to name any names, but the person he heard it from would definitely know. If we're going to Kevin Bacon it, he's two degrees away and his source is directly connected.

The counterpoint: if Anderson is leaving, his April Fool's prank (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2015/04/02/justin-anderson-pranks-virginia-basketball-fans-on-april-fools-day/) plays as pretty cruel, and I don't think he's that guy. But he could have just not thought it through.

I'd go if I were him.

EDITED TO ADD: I hate to be "that guy," and I'll come back and name the source later. Just don't want to do it now.

Now that Anderson is announcing, I'll follow up on this...my relation is on the staff at Old Dominion, and he heard from B.J. Stith.

[SCMatt33]

Assuming the reports are now true about Anderson, UVA will have an interesting core rotation next year. We saw Shayok earn more and more minutes towards the end of the year, but did not see much confidence in playing either Hall or Wilkins in meaningful spots. UVA also currently only has one recruit coming in, 6-8, 240, PF Jarred Reuter, a high-end 3-star by most accounts. That would leave them with the following 6-man core:

London Perrantes
Malcolm Brogdon
Marial Shayok
Evan Nolte
Anthony Gill
Mike Tobey

That isn't to say that Tony Bennett will play only 6 guys, but those are the 6 I'd expect to see on the floor in the last 5 minutes of a close game pending foul trouble. What is interesting about that rotation is that it reminds me a bit of Duke's from this year in the way that they can play multiple positions depending on whose resting. After Sulaimon was dismissed, and before Grayson proved himself, we really saw that Amile was the only sub that was used significantly in the second half of games. You'd have Tyus play 1, Quinn play 1 or 2, Matt play 2 or 3, Justise play 3 or 4, Amile play 4 or 5, and Jah play 5. In the same way, UVA could have Perrantes play 1, Brogdon play 1 or 2, Shayok play 2 or 3, Nolte play 3 or 4, Gill play 4 or 5, and Tobey play 5.

Is that as talented as what Duke threw out there, no, but it's interesting in that you do have a 6 man core in which every player can rest without anyone playing horribly out of position, and that's not always a gimme. Anderson was the x-factor that really made UVA special, and in my mind this takes UVA preseason expectations from top 5 down to top 25, but it would be foolish to count them out and finding themselves in the ACC mix when all of the top contenders outside of UNC are going to have to replace serious parts of their teams is not an unreasonable possibility.

[gumbomoop]

I'll repeat a point I just posted on the early-entry thread: seniors Tobey and Nolte have to become dependable players next season. Especially Tobey, who needs to become a 25 mpg, 12/7 guy. He has ability, but no consistency, or motor, or something. Can't expect Gill to do all the rebounding.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Add in Darius Thompson, the Tennessee transfer combo guard. Depending on whom you believe, he either would have gotten most of Shayok's minutes or competed with him for minutes if he'd been eligible this year.

Also, given Tony's proclivity for using every scholarship, I wouldn't be surprised to see another immediately eligible player come in next year.

[gumbomoop]

I might want to put LSU in my own too-early preseason NCAA Top 10.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12727190/brandon-sampson-staying-home-lsu-tigers

Mostly because of Ben Simmons and a talented cast of many on their perimeter. The HS Class of 2015 may not be as strong as 2014 or 2016, but I was wowed by Simmons in the two all-star games I saw him play in. Grant Hill-like handle, size, smooth glide, vision, passing, spin-touch, scoring from all angles.

No idea whether Johnny Jones is a solid coach. He needs a 5 badly, now that Mickey and Martin are leaving. I suppose there's no truth to the rumour that Marshall will be a grad transfer. (You don't imagine the Vrankovic swoop was just a coincidence, do you? Dolts.) Marshall's on record as wanting to do an Acadian Studies M.A. Thesis on "Laissez les bon temps rouler: Queen Ida, Creole Culture, and the Curiosities of Cajun Grammatical Fallacies." Baton Rouge is a lot closer to ground zero for that research.

To quote Coach Jones: "If we had Plumlee next year, we'd build a statue of him within a week of winning the Natty. Put it in the Capitol Park Museum, right there next to Louis Armstrong's childhood bugle." Tough decision for Marshall: K v. Louis Armstrong and the LSU archives.

LSU preseason #8. With Marshall, #1.

[Duvall]

I might want to put LSU in my own too-early preseason NCAA Top 10.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12727190/brandon-sampson-staying-home-lsu-tigers

Mostly because of Ben Simmons and a talented cast of many on their perimeter. The HS Class of 2015 may not be as strong as 2014 or 2016, but I was wowed by Simmons in the two all-star games I saw him play in. Grant Hill-like handle, size, smooth glide, vision, passing, spin-touch, scoring from all angles.

No idea whether Johnny Jones is a solid coach.

He's not. Then again, it's the SEC, so that's only a minor obstacle.

[Troublemaker]

I like that Rob Dauster is making running updates to his way-too-early rankings as commits continue to happen: http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/27/updated-2015-2016-college-basketball-way-too-early-preseason-rankings/

After Diallo, Kansas is up to #2 now.

I gotta say, looking at that list, Duke might be too low at #8.

On some abstract level (i.e. not looking at other teams' rosters), Duke should NOT be a top-5 team.

But then you look around at other rosters, and maybe college basketball is just that weak this upcoming year.

[Olympic Fan]

I like that Rob Dauster is making running updates to his way-too-early rankings as commits continue to happen: http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/27/updated-2015-2016-college-basketball-way-too-early-preseason-rankings/

After Diallo, Kansas is up to #2 now.

I gotta say, looking at that list, Duke might be too low at #8.

On some abstract level (i.e. not looking at other teams' rosters), Duke should NOT be a top-5 team.

But then you look around at other rosters, and maybe college basketball is just that weak this upcoming year.

Crummy, ill-informed list ... I have no respect for anybody who had UNC ranked higher than Virginia going into next season.

Several other head-scratching picks.

[Wander]

Crummy, ill-informed list ... I have no respect for anybody who had UNC ranked higher than Virginia going into next season.


Nearly everyone is going to have UNC ahead of Virginia going into next season, including Vegas, so that's going to be a whole lot of people you're not going to have respect for. I think I agree with all those people - one can easily argue that UNC was about on par with UVA at the very end of last season, and they're losing less - but it is pretty close.

[Duvall]

Crummy, ill-informed list ... I have no respect for anybody who had UNC ranked higher than Virginia going into next season.

Several other head-scratching picks.

To be fair, Dauster is a crummy, ill-informed analyst, so this tracks.

[Duvall]

Nearly everyone is going to have UNC ahead of Virginia going into next season, including Vegas, so that's going to be a whole lot of people you're not going to have respect for. I think I agree with all those people - one can easily argue that UNC was about on par with UVA at the very end of last season, and they're losing less - but it is pretty close.

And yet, how will they be able to guard...anyone? They'll have subpar defenders starting at five spots.

[mattman91]

Crummy, ill-informed list ... I have no respect for anybody who had UNC ranked higher than Virginia going into next season.

Several other head-scratching picks.

Didn't include Dylan Ennis in the "departing players" list for Villanova. Wasn't he a starter last year?

[Wander]

And yet, how will they be able to guard...anyone? They'll have subpar defenders starting at five spots.

I agree, they will not be a great defensive team. But UNC finished 10th in offense last year, and I think they'll improve on that by getting rid of Tokoto and having another year of experience for the other guys - not to mention the departure of tons of guys from the offenses above them like Okafor, Kaminsky, Grant, Pangos, and so on. I wouldn't be surprised to see them as the top offense next year. And we know that teams with a great offense and subpar defense can do just fine - Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Duke from last season as examples (obviously, our defense skyrocketed during the tournament, but we still got a 1 seed based on the not-great defense of the regular season).

Of course, I'm assuming Roy doesn't do something like give Nate Britt more minutes than Joel Berry or start Joel James. Which, you know.

[mr. synellinden]

Didn't include Dylan Ennis in the "departing players" list for Villanova. Wasn't he a starter last year?

They also didn't include Quinn in our departing players. No big deal. Only a senior, starter, captain and averaged 15 a game.

[Olympic Fan]

Nearly everyone is going to have UNC ahead of Virginia going into next season, including Vegas, so that's going to be a whole lot of people you're not going to have respect for. I think I agree with all those people - one can easily argue that UNC was about on par with UVA at the very end of last season, and they're losing less - but it is pretty close.

Yeah, it is a whole lot of people I have no respect for. It's the same group of so-called experts who prattled on all season about how Kentucky was unbeatable, who came on before every Duke game in the tournament and predicted us to lose to Utah, Gonzaga, Michigan State and Wisconsin. It's the same group of experts who picked UNC No. 6 in last year's AP poll. How'd that work out?

As for Vegas ... how do you think they pay for those fancy casinos and hotels -- by winning money from suckers who bet on UNC to win next year's title. I actually do have respect for the Vegas guys, because they're not trying to predict the real winners -- they're trying to make the most money and they know who the suckers like (UNC has finished lower in the polls than they started in seven of the last 9 years -- the matched it once and exceded their preseason rank once in that span).

The whole UNC thing reminds me of NC State going into the 2012-13 season. State was 24-13 in 2012 (not so far off UNC's 26-12 last year), but they finished strong, winning two games in the ACC Tournament before losing to UNC by two (on a bad call), then beating No. 22 San Diego State and No. 15 Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament before losing a heartbreaker to No. 5 Kansas in the Sweet 16. Since State returned the core of that team -- Lorenzo Brown, CJ Leslie, Richard Howell, Scott Wood -- State was a popular choice going into the 2012-13 season. They were preseason No. 1 in the ACC and No. 6 nationally in preseason AP poll.

But they turned out to be basically the same team they were the year before -- 23-11 overall and tied for fourth in the ACC (the same as the year before). They ended the year unranked and lost the NCAA play-in game to Temple in Dayton.

I think UNC will suffer a similar fate. They are still basically the same team they were last year -- good, but not great. They have done nothing to upgrade. Yeah, Jackson and maybe Berry will be better as sophs, but they also lost their best defensive player -- their only above-average defensive player.

The supposition they are going to be a lot better is based on the false premise that college basketball will be a lot weaker next year. But it really doesn't work that way. We don't know right now who the next stars are going to be and which teams will rise up (look how much Notre Dame improved from 2014 to 2015 or Virginia from 2013 to 2014 or Miami from 2012 to 2013 or Florida State from 2011 to 2012 -- all four went from outside the NCAA to ACC champions and top 10 teams. There will be that kind of breakthrough again.

UNC is a safe pick. They'll be pretty good next season. But relative to the ACC and the rest of college basketball, they'll be the same good but not great team they've been the last two years.

As for your assertion that UNC was basically on a par with Virginia late last year, that's only true because Bennett screwed up his team by trying to force Justin Anderson back in the lineup. Trying to jam Anderson back in the rotation was the same kind of mistake K made with Irving in 2011 and Dean made with Kenny Smith in 1984. The Virginia team that played down the stretch without Anderson (which is basically the team that we'll see next season) was significantly better than a UNC team that was 4-4 down the stretch in the regular season (beating nobody of significance ... Virginia was 7-1 during the same stretch).

Yeah, Carolina had a nice NCAA run to the Sweet 16, but it was not as impressive as the two NCAA games State won in 2012 - UNC beat unranked Harvard and No. 21 Arkansas. Yes, they lost a close game to Wisconsin, but if you're going to give them credit for that, they you have to dock them for nearly losing to unranked Harvard in the opener (Harvard had three 3-point attempts to win in the closing seconds).

I repeat, I have no respect for anyone who thinks UNC should be ranked higher than Virginia going into next season -- and that includes Dauster, Doug Gottlieb and any other "expert" making that mindless claim.

[duke09hms]

Yeah, it is a whole lot of people I have no respect for. It's the same group of so-called experts who prattled on all season about how Kentucky was unbeatable, who came on before every Duke game in the tournament and predicted us to lose to Utah, Gonzaga, Michigan State and Wisconsin. It's the same group of experts who picked UNC No. 6 in last year's AP poll. How'd that work out?

As for Vegas ... how do you think they pay for those fancy casinos and hotels -- by winning money from suckers who bet on UNC to win next year's title. I actually do have respect for the Vegas guys, because they're not trying to predict the real winners -- they're trying to make the most money and they know who the suckers like (UNC has finished lower in the polls than they started in seven of the last 9 years -- the matched it once and exceded their preseason rank once in that span).

The whole UNC thing reminds me of NC State going into the 2012-13 season. State was 24-13 in 2012 (not so far off UNC's 26-12 last year), but they finished strong, winning two games in the ACC Tournament before losing to UNC by two (on a bad call), then beating No. 22 San Diego State and No. 15 Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament before losing a heartbreaker to No. 5 Kansas in the Sweet 16. Since State returned the core of that team -- Lorenzo Brown, CJ Leslie, Richard Howell, Scott Wood -- State was a popular choice going into the 2012-13 season. They were preseason No. 1 in the ACC and No. 6 nationally in preseason AP poll.

But they turned out to be basically the same team they were the year before -- 23-11 overall and tied for fourth in the ACC (the same as the year before). They ended the year unranked and lost the NCAA play-in game to Temple in Dayton.

I think UNC will suffer a similar fate. They are still basically the same team they were last year -- good, but not great. They have done nothing to upgrade. Yeah, Jackson and maybe Berry will be better as sophs, but they also lost their best defensive player -- their only above-average defensive player.

The supposition they are going to be a lot better is based on the false premise that college basketball will be a lot weaker next year. But it really doesn't work that way. We don't know right now who the next stars are going to be and which teams will rise up (look how much Notre Dame improved from 2014 to 2015 or Virginia from 2013 to 2014 or Miami from 2012 to 2013 or Florida State from 2011 to 2012 -- all four went from outside the NCAA to ACC champions and top 10 teams. There will be that kind of breakthrough again.

UNC is a safe pick. They'll be pretty good next season. But relative to the ACC and the rest of college basketball, they'll be the same good but not great team they've been the last two years.

As for your assertion that UNC was basically on a par with Virginia late last year, that's only true because Bennett screwed up his team by trying to force Justin Anderson back in the lineup. Trying to jam Anderson back in the rotation was the same kind of mistake K made with Irving in 2011 and Dean made with Kenny Smith in 1984. The Virginia team that played down the stretch without Anderson (which is basically the team that we'll see next season) was significantly better than a UNC team that was 4-4 down the stretch in the regular season (beating nobody of significance ... Virginia was 7-1 during the same stretch).

Yeah, Carolina had a nice NCAA run to the Sweet 16, but it was not as impressive as the two NCAA games State won in 2012 - UNC beat unranked Harvard and No. 21 Arkansas. Yes, they lost a close game to Wisconsin, but if you're going to give them credit for that, they you have to dock them for nearly losing to unranked Harvard in the opener (Harvard had three 3-point attempts to win in the closing seconds).

I repeat, I have no respect for anyone who thinks UNC should be ranked higher than Virginia going into next season -- and that includes Dauster, Doug Gottlieb and any other "expert" making that mindless claim.

Hoo boy, I desire nothing other than for your prediction to be true, but you are really tempting the basketball jinx gods with your post.

[Wander]

Yeah, it is a whole lot of people I have no respect for. It's the same group of so-called experts who prattled on all season about how Kentucky was unbeatable, who came on before every Duke game in the tournament and predicted us to lose to Utah, Gonzaga, Michigan State and Wisconsin. It's the same group of experts who picked UNC No. 6 in last year's AP poll. How'd that work out?

As for Vegas ... how do you think they pay for those fancy casinos and hotels -- by winning money from suckers who bet on UNC to win next year's title. I actually do have respect for the Vegas guys, because they're not trying to predict the real winners -- they're trying to make the most money and they know who the suckers like (UNC has finished lower in the polls than they started in seven of the last 9 years -- the matched it once and exceded their preseason rank once in that span).

The whole UNC thing reminds me of NC State going into the 2012-13 season. State was 24-13 in 2012 (not so far off UNC's 26-12 last year), but they finished strong, winning two games in the ACC Tournament before losing to UNC by two (on a bad call), then beating No. 22 San Diego State and No. 15 Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament before losing a heartbreaker to No. 5 Kansas in the Sweet 16. Since State returned the core of that team -- Lorenzo Brown, CJ Leslie, Richard Howell, Scott Wood -- State was a popular choice going into the 2012-13 season. They were preseason No. 1 in the ACC and No. 6 nationally in preseason AP poll.

But they turned out to be basically the same team they were the year before -- 23-11 overall and tied for fourth in the ACC (the same as the year before). They ended the year unranked and lost the NCAA play-in game to Temple in Dayton.

I think UNC will suffer a similar fate. They are still basically the same team they were last year -- good, but not great. They have done nothing to upgrade. Yeah, Jackson and maybe Berry will be better as sophs, but they also lost their best defensive player -- their only above-average defensive player.

The supposition they are going to be a lot better is based on the false premise that college basketball will be a lot weaker next year. But it really doesn't work that way. We don't know right now who the next stars are going to be and which teams will rise up (look how much Notre Dame improved from 2014 to 2015 or Virginia from 2013 to 2014 or Miami from 2012 to 2013 or Florida State from 2011 to 2012 -- all four went from outside the NCAA to ACC champions and top 10 teams. There will be that kind of breakthrough again.

UNC is a safe pick. They'll be pretty good next season. But relative to the ACC and the rest of college basketball, they'll be the same good but not great team they've been the last two years.

As for your assertion that UNC was basically on a par with Virginia late last year, that's only true because Bennett screwed up his team by trying to force Justin Anderson back in the lineup. Trying to jam Anderson back in the rotation was the same kind of mistake K made with Irving in 2011 and Dean made with Kenny Smith in 1984. The Virginia team that played down the stretch without Anderson (which is basically the team that we'll see next season) was significantly better than a UNC team that was 4-4 down the stretch in the regular season (beating nobody of significance ... Virginia was 7-1 during the same stretch).

Yeah, Carolina had a nice NCAA run to the Sweet 16, but it was not as impressive as the two NCAA games State won in 2012 - UNC beat unranked Harvard and No. 21 Arkansas. Yes, they lost a close game to Wisconsin, but if you're going to give them credit for that, they you have to dock them for nearly losing to unranked Harvard in the opener (Harvard had three 3-point attempts to win in the closing seconds).

I repeat, I have no respect for anyone who thinks UNC should be ranked higher than Virginia going into next season -- and that includes Dauster, Doug Gottlieb and any other "expert" making that mindless claim.

First of all, you're being a little dramatic about last season. Maybe I'm listening to more reasonable guys than you, but nearly everyone I heard said Kentucky was the best team, picked Kentucky to win the national championship, and deserved to be the favorite, but was not flawless or unbeatable despite the undefeated record and that Wisconsin was the best equipped team to beat them. Yes, there were some guys who were over the top, but the consensus opinion was an extremely fair assessment. I really doubt that a majority of experts picked us to lose to Utah, and I don't remember hearing anyone predict us to lose to Michigan State. I'm sure there were a couple guys out there, but these were not the consensus opinions.

UNC finished lower in the polls than they started 7 of the past 9 years. Duke also finished lower in that same span 6 out of the past 9 years. I'm not sure what point that proves. Preseason polls obviously are not going to match postseason polls.

I don't know what the NC State example is trying to show either. The reason NC State's victories in the 2012 tournament were more impressive than UNC's victories in the 2015 tournament is that 2015 UNC was a far better team than 2012 NC State and thus had a better seed. If UNC was an 11 seed this past year, like NC State was in 2012, I would agree with you. It's easy to overrate a team or player that just got hot in the tournament. But UNC earned a good seed based on the regular season, and their tournament performance was in line with their seed, so I don't think the comparison works.

Anyway, I actually would have UNC ranked lower than most people have them next season - they'll probably be ranked preseason 1 or 2, but I think I'd have Maryland, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa State all ahead. If you want to take a minority opinion that UVA will be better than UNC, that's perfectly defensible, but the teams are close enough that there's no need for dramatic proclamations about not respecting those who think otherwise.

[jv001]

Yeah, it is a whole lot of people I have no respect for. It's the same group of so-called experts who prattled on all season about how Kentucky was unbeatable, who came on before every Duke game in the tournament and predicted us to lose to Utah, Gonzaga, Michigan State and Wisconsin. It's the same group of experts who picked UNC No. 6 in last year's AP poll. How'd that work out?

As for Vegas ... how do you think they pay for those fancy casinos and hotels -- by winning money from suckers who bet on UNC to win next year's title. I actually do have respect for the Vegas guys, because they're not trying to predict the real winners -- they're trying to make the most money and they know who the suckers like (UNC has finished lower in the polls than they started in seven of the last 9 years -- the matched it once and exceded their preseason rank once in that span).

The whole UNC thing reminds me of NC State going into the 2012-13 season. State was 24-13 in 2012 (not so far off UNC's 26-12 last year), but they finished strong, winning two games in the ACC Tournament before losing to UNC by two (on a bad call), then beating No. 22 San Diego State and No. 15 Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament before losing a heartbreaker to No. 5 Kansas in the Sweet 16. Since State returned the core of that team -- Lorenzo Brown, CJ Leslie, Richard Howell, Scott Wood -- State was a popular choice going into the 2012-13 season. They were preseason No. 1 in the ACC and No. 6 nationally in preseason AP poll.

But they turned out to be basically the same team they were the year before -- 23-11 overall and tied for fourth in the ACC (the same as the year before). They ended the year unranked and lost the NCAA play-in game to Temple in Dayton.

I think UNC will suffer a similar fate. They are still basically the same team they were last year -- good, but not great. They have done nothing to upgrade. Yeah, Jackson and maybe Berry will be better as sophs, but they also lost their best defensive player -- their only above-average defensive player.

The supposition they are going to be a lot better is based on the false premise that college basketball will be a lot weaker next year. But it really doesn't work that way. We don't know right now who the next stars are going to be and which teams will rise up (look how much Notre Dame improved from 2014 to 2015 or Virginia from 2013 to 2014 or Miami from 2012 to 2013 or Florida State from 2011 to 2012 -- all four went from outside the NCAA to ACC champions and top 10 teams. There will be that kind of breakthrough again.

UNC is a safe pick. They'll be pretty good next season. But relative to the ACC and the rest of college basketball, they'll be the same good but not great team they've been the last two years.

As for your assertion that UNC was basically on a par with Virginia late last year, that's only true because Bennett screwed up his team by trying to force Justin Anderson back in the lineup. Trying to jam Anderson back in the rotation was the same kind of mistake K made with Irving in 2011 and Dean made with Kenny Smith in 1984. The Virginia team that played down the stretch without Anderson (which is basically the team that we'll see next season) was significantly better than a UNC team that was 4-4 down the stretch in the regular season (beating nobody of significance ... Virginia was 7-1 during the same stretch).

Yeah, Carolina had a nice NCAA run to the Sweet 16, but it was not as impressive as the two NCAA games State won in 2012 - UNC beat unranked Harvard and No. 21 Arkansas. Yes, they lost a close game to Wisconsin, but if you're going to give them credit for that, they you have to dock them for nearly losing to unranked Harvard in the opener (Harvard had three 3-point attempts to win in the closing seconds).

I repeat, I have no respect for anyone who thinks UNC should be ranked higher than Virginia going into next season -- and that includes Dauster, Doug Gottlieb and any other "expert" making that mindless claim.

I couldn't spork you until I spread more sporks around. But I'll give you a big GoDuke! The Cheats have under achieved more often than they have over achieved in the last several years. Could that be coaching, Ole Roy losing it? I think the cheats have some good players in Jackson, Paige and their entire front line. But as you said, they are not a good defensive team. Then throw in their lack of outside shooters and they're just a good team. I know the media will fall in love with them early because they still consider them the "program". As far as I'm concerned, they are the program that was a winning program because of the cheating that they got away with for many, many years. I believe it was Newton that said as far as he's concerned they don't exist any longer. I feel the same way. GoDuke!

[Duke95]

Hoo boy, I desire nothing other than for your prediction to be true, but you are really tempting the basketball jinx gods with your post.

I heard they dislike UNC as much as we do. Maybe more.

Sure hope Olympic Fan is right.

[BD80]

I heard they dislike UNC as much as we do. Maybe more.

Sure hope Olympic Fan is right.

Somebody must sure dislike unc, making them wear that god-awful shade of blue.

[CDu]

First of all, you're being a little dramatic about last season. Maybe I'm listening to more reasonable guys than you, but nearly everyone I heard said Kentucky was the best team, picked Kentucky to win the national championship, and deserved to be the favorite, but was not flawless or unbeatable despite the undefeated record and that Wisconsin was the best equipped team to beat them. Yes, there were some guys who were over the top, but the consensus opinion was an extremely fair assessment. I really doubt that a majority of experts picked us to lose to Utah, and I don't remember hearing anyone predict us to lose to Michigan State. I'm sure there were a couple guys out there, but these were not the consensus opinions.

UNC finished lower in the polls than they started 7 of the past 9 years. Duke also finished lower in that same span 6 out of the past 9 years. I'm not sure what point that proves. Preseason polls obviously are not going to match postseason polls.

I don't know what the NC State example is trying to show either. The reason NC State's victories in the 2012 tournament were more impressive than UNC's victories in the 2015 tournament is that 2015 UNC was a far better team than 2012 NC State and thus had a better seed. If UNC was an 11 seed this past year, like NC State was in 2012, I would agree with you. It's easy to overrate a team or player that just got hot in the tournament. But UNC earned a good seed based on the regular season, and their tournament performance was in line with their seed, so I don't think the comparison works.

Anyway, I actually would have UNC ranked lower than most people have them next season - they'll probably be ranked preseason 1 or 2, but I think I'd have Maryland, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa State all ahead. If you want to take a minority opinion that UVA will be better than UNC, that's perfectly defensible, but the teams are close enough that there's no need for dramatic proclamations about not respecting those who think otherwise.

I agree with you. While I personally will have UVa ahead of UNC, I think it is close enough that Olympic is being overdramatic in saying how stupid it is to pick UNC. Referencing one bad comparison with NC State doesn't invalidate the thought that a healthy Paige plus improved Jackson, Pinson, and Berry will be enough to make them a top-5 caliber team.

Ultimately, I think UVa will be a little more consistent throughout the season than UNC will be. UVa will also likely have an easier schedule; they rarely play as tough a non-conference schedule as UNC. And they'll likely have a slightly easier in-conference schedule, by virtue of not likely having to play Duke twice and by (likely) having the matchup with UNC at home this year. But come tournament time, I would not be at all surprised to see UNC as the more successful team.

In other words, I think UVa's floor is higher than UNC's, but I think UNC's ceiling is higher than UVa's. And I would not fault anyone for leaning toward the team with the higher ceiling when doing these way-too-early predictions.

[sagegrouse]

I agree with you. While I personally will have UVa ahead of UNC, I think it is close enough that Olympic is being overdramatic in saying how stupid it is to pick UNC. Referencing one bad comparison with NC State doesn't invalidate the thought that a healthy Paige plus improved Jackson, Pinson, and Berry will be enough to make them a top-5 caliber team.

Ultimately, I think UVa will be a little more consistent throughout the season than UNC will be. UVa will also likely have an easier schedule; they rarely play as tough a non-conference schedule as UNC. And they'll likely have a slightly easier in-conference schedule, by virtue of not likely having to play Duke twice and by (likely) having the matchup with UNC at home this year. But come tournament time, I would not be at all surprised to see UNC as the more successful team.

In other words, I think UVa's floor is higher than UNC's, but I think UNC's ceiling is higher than UVa's. And I would not fault anyone for leaning toward the team with the higher ceiling when doing these way-too-early predictions.

UNC had some good players to put on the floor and a great deal of depth. At the same time, the Heels lost 12 games, more than Duke lost in all but two of the last 32 seasons (1995 and 1996). The Heels lacked "toughness" and lost games they should have won, including the game @ Duke.

Unfortunately for them, there is no miracle cure for "lack of toughness." One or several players have to step up and refuse to accept defeat. Marcus Paige is the obvious candidate. Perhaps Justin Jackson will have matured. Maybe even Kennedy Meeks.

[Troublemaker]

Re: UVA's 7-1 stretch without Anderson, only one of the 7 wins was against a tournament team and the 1 loss was against Louisville (albeit in a coin-flip game). The Hoos struggled mightily on offense during that stretch, so the 7-1 record was really more about the competition than about impressive play, imo.

More importantly, Anderson isn't the only loss for UVA. Darion Atkins is gone, too, and I'm not comfortable with Tobey stepping in for him. Anderson and Atkins did a great job stepping in for Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, respectively, after those seniors graduated. They probably even played better than the guys they replaced, a huge factor in them being able to finish in first place again. Now we'll see if UVA can repeat that trick again with two more reinforcements.

[Duke95]

I look forward to Kennedy Meeks' futile attempts at shooting over Sean Obi's armpits.

[CDu]

Re: UVA's 7-1 stretch without Anderson, only one of the 7 wins was against a tournament team and the 1 loss was against Louisville (albeit in a coin-flip game). The Hoos struggled mightily on offense during that stretch, so the 7-1 record was really more about the competition than about impressive play, imo.

I agree. UNC did lose 12 games. However, none of those losses were to non-tourney teams, and only 3 of those losses were against teams outside of the top-20. Heck, 7 of their losses were to top-10 teams. I don't think it was a lack of toughness; I think it was that they were a top-15-ish team that just had trouble getting over the hump against better teams.




More importantly, Anderson isn't the only loss for UVA. Darion Atkins is gone, too, and I'm not comfortable with Tobey stepping in for him. Anderson and Atkins did a great job stepping in for Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, respectively, after those seniors graduated. They probably even played better than the guys they replaced, a huge factor in them being able to finish in first place again. Now we'll see if UVA can repeat that trick again with two more reinforcements.

This is a key point. And it is not just that they lost Atkins and Anderson; it is that they lost two of their best defensive players. It is certainly possible that Tobey can come up big, but it is far from a given. And even if Tobey steps up as a starter, who fills in Tobey's role off the bench?

I think there is enough question regarding UVa replacing those guys that it isn't completely outlandish to suggest they fall behind UNC. Especially if you also believe that Pinson can replace Tokoto (I tend to think he can; he was a better prospect coming out of high school and offers similar size and athleticism), that a healthy Paige will be much improved, and that Jackson and/or Berry will be much improved as sophomores.

It is not like UNC was terribly far from being a top-10 team: they certainly had a chance to beat Notre Dame at home and had two decent chances to beat Duke, and they played toe-to-toe with Wisconsin until the final few minutes. So I don't think it is totally unreasonable to say that, with another year of experience and physical development for guys like Johnson, Meeks, and Jackson, with with a year of maturity and confidence for Jackson, Pinson, and Berry, and with a healthier Paige, that the Heels may jump to where they are closing out these games instead of coming up just short.

[superdave]

I agree. UNC did lose 12 games. However, none of those losses were to non-tourney teams, and only 3 of those losses were against teams outside of the top-20. Heck, 7 of their losses were to top-10 teams. I don't think it was a lack of toughness; I think it was that they were a top-15-ish team that just had trouble getting over the hump against better teams.



It is important to note that Unc won games the season before simply because Marcus Paige took over and won it himself. Paige didnt have any mojo this past season so they never beat any team better than them. Will he be back to form or did he actually regress? I think that is the difference between Unc being a Sweet 16/Elite 8 team and them making the Final Four. I do not know that anyone else on that team can really take over for stretches. The talent is there but maybe not the killer instinct.

[Kedsy]

It is important to note that Unc won games the season before simply because Marcus Paige took over and won it himself. Paige didnt have any mojo this past season so they never beat any team better than them. Will he be back to form or did he actually regress? I think that is the difference between Unc being a Sweet 16/Elite 8 team and them making the Final Four. I do not know that anyone else on that team can really take over for stretches. The talent is there but maybe not the killer instinct.

Paige kind of took everyone by surprise in 2014. This past season, opponents game-planned for him, keyed their defenses to stop him. The question is was his poorer performance in 2015 due to his nagging injuries, or was it because he's not quite good enough to excel when he's the focus of the opposing defense?

[Indoor66]

Paige kind of took everyone by surprise in 2014. This past season, opponents game-planned for him, keyed their defenses to stop him. The question is was his poorer performance in 2015 due to his nagging injuries, or was it because he's not quite good enough to excel when he's the focus of the opposing defense?

To be fair to Paige, it is probably a combination of both of the factors you listed. I agree with you that he became the focus of the defense last year. Why not? Nobody else was going to shoot.

[Wander]

In other words, I think UVa's floor is higher than UNC's, but I think UNC's ceiling is higher than UVa's. And I would not fault anyone for leaning toward the team with the higher ceiling when doing these way-too-early predictions.

Especially if you also believe that Pinson can replace Tokoto (I tend to think he can; he was a better prospect coming out of high school and offers similar size and athleticism), that a healthy Paige will be much improved, and that Jackson and/or Berry will be much improved as sophomores.


I think the floor/ceiling comment is a good way to put things. As for Pinson, I actually think the best way for UNC to go would not be to just plug Pinson in for Tokoto, but to have the main lineup be Berry, Paige, Jackson, Johnson, and Meeks. Duvall is correct in noting that would probably not be a very good defensive group, but it would allow Paige to play off-ball and I think cure UNC's biggest weakness from last year - outside shooting. I think it'd have the potential to be the best offense in the country. Of course, Pinson would be in the rotation.

[Troublemaker]

This is a key point. And it is not just that they lost Atkins and Anderson; it is that they lost two of their best defensive players. It is certainly possible that Tobey can come up big, but it is far from a given. And even if Tobey steps up as a starter, who fills in Tobey's role off the bench?

I think there is enough question regarding UVa replacing those guys that it isn't completely outlandish to suggest they fall behind UNC.

I agree. I'll go so far as to say this. If the replacements for Atkins and Anderson are Tobey and Nolte, which previous playing time would suggest is the case, then UVA will not have a top-10 defense next season. I mean, I understand Bennett has a very good system, but it's not magic pixie dust. He HAS coached defenses that ranked in the 60s and 70s when he first got to UVA. You need good defensive talent, too.

They won't fall off the map defensively, of course. But if they are "merely" a top-20 defense, will they have enough scoring to still be ahead of UNC and Duke in the standings?

[Olympic Fan]

Just a few points:

--Yes, Virginia only beat one tournament team in their 7-1 stretch to close the regular season without Anderson -- it was a win AT N.C. State. During that same span, UNC (which I keep being told finished strong) was 4-4 and beat NO tournament teams. They did however, lose by 12 at home to N.C. State in a game in which they were dominated. They also lost by 13 to a Pitt team that Virginia-without-Anderson beat by 12. Virginia-without-Anderson also beat Wake Forest by 36.

-- Yes, Virginia loses to good defensive players. But they also return two defensive players who made the coaches All-ACC Defensive team -- Gill and Malcolm Brogdon, who was their coaches co-defensive player of the year. Virginia lost two good defensive players going into last season (including ACC defensive player of the year Akil Mitchell) and I heard the same thing about how their defense would drop off -- how did that work out?

The perception that North Carolina is suddenly going to go from being a top 20 team to a top 5 team is based on the false premise that nobody else in college basketball will get better. Yeah, the teams ahead of them los a lot, while the didn't. But there are a dozen teams behind UNC (and several ahead of the) which will get better.

Right now, I would rank the top 3 in the ACC as 1. Virginia; 2. UNC and 3. Duke .. I only pick Duke behind UNC because think the young team will have growing pains. But I believe that by the end of the season, Duke will be a significantly better team than UNC.

And, just to note ... I know you can't play the if game, but if Trevor Lacey had not surprised State by leaving, I'd be picking NC State ahead of UNC. They were a significantly better team than UNC down the stretch (as hey proved by their dominant win in Chapel Hill and their much more impressive NCAA Tournament win) and before the Lacey defection, they also returned intact.

[CDu]

I think the floor/ceiling comment is a good way to put things. As for Pinson, I actually think the best way for UNC to go would not be to just plug Pinson in for Tokoto, but to have the main lineup be Berry, Paige, Jackson, Johnson, and Meeks. Duvall is correct in noting that would probably not be a very good defensive group, but it would allow Paige to play off-ball and I think cure UNC's biggest weakness from last year - outside shooting. I think it'd have the potential to be the best offense in the country. Of course, Pinson would be in the rotation.

If I were coaching the Heels, I'd play the following seven guys as much as possible: Berry, Paige, Jackson, Johnson, Meeks, Pinson, and Hicks. I would expect Pinson to end up with roughly the same minutes (probably a little less) that Tokoto got, with Berry and Jackson picking up Pinson's old minutes as well as a bunch of Britt's and James' minutes. And I would give Hicks most of the minutes that James, Simmons, and Hubert got. Britt and James would then be minutes-filler as needed, with James probably getting more minutes than Britt given the potential need for foul-trouble minutes in the frontcourt.

I think the Heels are best offensively when they have someone other than Paige running the point. That allows Paige to seek out his shot, which is where he is most dangerous. I think Roy was aware of that, but his proclivity for playing the veteran over the more-talented frosh resulted in Britt getting more PT than Berry for much of the year.

Also, I think the Heels are best defensively when they go a bit smaller, with Hicks and Johnson up front. But Williams comes from the Dean Smith school of "I have to play two true post guys as much as possible." So he only accidentally found success with that small lineup (when injury and/or foul trouble forced his hand). It is that same mindset that kept PJ Hairston as a reserve for well into his sophomore year in spite of the fact that playing him at the PF spot made UNC quite dangerous. Williams stubbornly rolled out a lineup with Desmond Hubert playing significant minutes rather than embracing small ball and creating matchup problems for the opposition.

Next year, though, only Joel James (and he only plays ~10 mpg anyway) stands in the way of UNC running out a very good and dangerous frontcourt at all times. Now that he isn't trying to play Hicks out of position at SF, Hicks' value goes up, as should his minutes. And the late-season minutes distribution sure seems to suggest that Berry has overtaken Britt, which is a big step forward for UNC.

[CDu]

Yes, Virginia loses to good defensive players. But they also return two defensive players who made the coaches All-ACC Defensive team -- Gill and Malcolm Brogdon, who was their coaches co-defensive player of the year. Virginia lost two good defensive players going into last season (including ACC defensive player of the year Akil Mitchell) and I heard the same thing about how their defense would drop off -- how did that work out?

So just because UVa has successfully replaced two guys before, we are to simply assume they will do it again? At some point, it seems reasonable that attrition becomes a problem. Maybe it won't be next year, but can you really say that with much confidence?


The perception that North Carolina is suddenly going to go from being a top 20 team to a top 5 team is based on the false premise that nobody else in college basketball will get better. Yeah, the teams ahead of them los a lot, while the didn't. But there are a dozen teams behind UNC (and several ahead of the) which will get better.

You seem to be putting a lot of faith in the unknown going against UNC (i.e., expecting a dozen unnamed teams to overtake them), but not allowing the unknown to work FOR UNC (i.e., allowing for the possibility that UNC is the team that makes the jump). Who are these dozen teams that you suggest are going to overtake UNC? You must have some idea, no? If not, seems like you are simply saying a bunch of teams will make unexpected improvements. In that case, why couldn't one just as easily assume that UNC will make the unexpected jump rather than some other teams. That seems just as appropriate speculation, no?


Right now, I would rank the top 3 in the ACC as 1. Virginia; 2. UNC and 3. Duke .. I only pick Duke behind UNC because think the young team will have growing pains. But I believe that by the end of the season, Duke will be a significantly better team than UNC.

I agree with your early predictions of the rankings. I'm not as sold as you are (heck, I'm not at all sold) that Duke will be a better team than UNC by season's end, much less "significantly" better. I think there is just as much chance that UNC is better than Duke next year as there is of Duke being better than UNC. We should have the most talented individual player, but UNC should have more depth of talent and much more experience.


And, just to note ... I know you can't play the if game, but if Trevor Lacey had not surprised State by leaving, I'd be picking NC State ahead of UNC. They were a significantly better team than UNC down the stretch (as hey proved by their dominant win in Chapel Hill and their much more impressive NCAA Tournament win) and before the Lacey defection, they also returned intact.

Well, NC State is also losing Ralston Turner (senior sharpshooter), Desmond Lee (senior, first guard off the bench), and Kyle Washington (transfer, rotation big). They do add another SG transfer (Henderson) who should replace Turner, though that isn't certain one-for-one trade. But (with Lacey) they were going to be one man less deep in their big man rotation and down one guard and ballhandler in their perimeter rotation. So not exactly returning intact.

Without Lacey and Lee, they now have only one ballhandler on the roster. The loss of Lacey and Turner (with Henderson added) leaves them with only one shooter. They have five fewer fouls to give inside with the loss of Washington. And they are far less deep with the loss of three key rotation players.

[Wander]

The perception that North Carolina is suddenly going to go from being a top 20 team to a top 5 team is based on the false premise that nobody else in college basketball will get better.

You keep saying this, but it's a complete strawman - that's not the premise at all. The premise is that UNC returns good players, who like most college basketball players will probably get better over time. This is especially applicable to their sophomore group and perhaps Paige's health (though as Kedsy notes, it's debatable whether that was the main issue this season). There are probably literally thousands of examples of college basketball teams that get better from one year to the next by returning a lot of their good players who improve. You can also find examples of teams that don't improve even if they return most of their team, and as I've said I'm not actually as high on UNC as most people are, but the most likely scenario right now is that they jump from a top 20 team to a top 10 team (I'd also have UVA as a top 10 team, just slightly behind UNC).

[Olympic Fan]

So just because UVa has successfully replaced two guys before, we are to simply assume they will do it again? At some point, it seems reasonable that attrition becomes a problem. Maybe it won't be next year, but can you really say that with much confidence?.

Yes, because the core of the defense is still there. Beyond Brogdon and Gill are Perrantes, Nolte and Tobey, who are all proven players in Bennett's defensive system. Shayok is a potential defensive killer. Thompson has a lo of defensive potential. I'll be interested to see if Salt (the 6-10, 240 redshirt from Mew Zealand) can have a defensive impact. I agree that Thompson and Salt are question marks, but Bennett has six guys who are proven veterans in his system without those two newcomers. Attrition will be a problem going into 2016-17, when Bennett has to replace Brogdon, Gill, Nolte and Tobey ... not next year.


You seem to be putting a lot of faith in the unknown going against UNC (i.e., expecting a dozen unnamed teams to overtake them), but not allowing the unknown to work FOR UNC (i.e., allowing for the possibility that UNC is the team that makes the jump). Who are these dozen teams that you suggest are going to overtake UNC? You must have some idea, no? If not, seems like you are simply saying a bunch of teams will make unexpected improvements. In that case, why couldn't one just as easily assume that UNC will make the unexpected jump rather than some other teams. That seems just as appropriate speculation, no?.

Fair criticism. The problem is that kind of projection is unknowable ... we just know it will happen because it always does. Before, I cited FSU 2012, Miami 2013, Virginia 2014 and Notre Dam 2015 as four teams that went from out of the NCAA tournament to the top 10 (and ACC champions). I should note that each of those teams went from clearly worse than UNC the year before to better than UNC in their title years. Will there be a team like this year? Maybe FSU? Maybe Miami? If not in the ACC, there will be several on the national scene. Teams will add players who will make a big difference -- UNC is adding nobody. UNC is basically the same team they've had the last two years -- a very good offensive team and a mediocre defensive team.


I agree with your early predictions of the rankings. I'm not as sold as you are (heck, I'm not at all sold) that Duke will be a better team than UNC by season's end, much less "significantly" better. I think there is just as much chance that UNC is better than Duke next year as there is of Duke being better than UNC. We should have the most talented individual player, but UNC should have more depth of talent and much more experience.

More experience -- yes ... but they had more experience in 2015 and what good did that do them? More "depth of talent"? I don't buy that at all. How many players on this UNC roster are potential NBA lottery picks? How many are potential first-round picks? There's a reason that Paige and Johnson and Meeks are back at UNC -- they are not in demand by the NBA. Maybe Jackson emerges as a lottery-type player, but I think it's likely that Ingram, Allen, Thornton, Jeter and Kennard produce more lottery/first round NBA picks than the entire UNC roster.



Well, NC State is also losing Ralston Turner (senior sharpshooter), Desmond Lee (senior, first guard off the bench), and Kyle Washington (transfer, rotation big). They do add another SG transfer (Henderson) who should replace Turner, though that isn't certain one-for-one trade. But (with Lacey) they were going to be one man less deep in their big man rotation and down one guard and ballhandler in their perimeter rotation. So not exactly returning intact.

Without Lacey and Lee, they now have only one ballhandler on the roster. The loss of Lacey and Turner (with Henderson added) leaves them with only one shooter. They have five fewer fouls to give inside with the loss of Washington. And they are far less deep with the loss of three key rotation players.

Well, I have to question your definition of "key rotation players" Turner, yes, but as you mention they replace him with Henderson. But Desmond Lee? A guy who averaged 7.8 minutes a game, while playing in 28 of 35 games? (He was under six minutes a game, while playing just 12 of 18 ACC games). Kyle Washington was a key member of the rotation early, even a starter, But he lost his starting role to Leonard Freeman late in the season and saw more and more of his playing time disappear because Gottfried gave more minutes to the Martin twins and went wit a heavy rotation of Abu and Anya. Washington left, essentially because he was squeezed out of the rotation. He would have been a nice option to have on the bench, but his loss is no tragedy.

I think that without the Lacey departure, N.C. State would have had a stronger team back than UNC. With Henderson on hand to replace Turner ... the losses of Washington and the little-used Lee (who played less at State last year than Jackson Simmons did for UNC) hurt State less than the loss of Tokoto -- UNC's one quality defender -- hurt the Heels.

[luvdahops]

Paige kind of took everyone by surprise in 2014. This past season, opponents game-planned for him, keyed their defenses to stop him. The question is was his poorer performance in 2015 due to his nagging injuries, or was it because he's not quite good enough to excel when he's the focus of the opposing defense?

I think it is some of both. I thought it was absurd to see Paige on some pre-season First Team All-America lists, as I don't consider him that caliber of talent. But I do think injuries took some toll. I read variously that he was bothered by either plantar fasciitis, a high ankle sprain or both during the season. Whatever the case may be, I can tell you from experience that those are both tough injuries to play through, especially for a player like Paige whose game is built around creating separation primarily through a (very) quick first step and shot release.

[vick]

I think it is some of both. I thought it was absurd to see Paige on some pre-season First Team All-America lists, as I don't consider him that caliber of talent. But I do think injuries took some toll. I read variously that he was bothered by either plantar fasciitis, a high ankle sprain or both during the season. Whatever the case may be, I can tell you from experience that those are both tough injuries to play through, especially for a player like Paige whose game is built around creating separation primarily through a (very) quick first step and shot release.

Agreed it's both, but couldn't you argue that his decline was just somewhat exaggerated? I mean, I don't think he was as effective last year as 2014 either, but look at the stats, and this huge decline just isn't there--in 2014, he was a 120 ORtg/22% usage player, and in 2015 he was...119/20%. That's worse, but very marginally so. Granted, you expect players to usually improve from sophomore to junior year, and visually I agree he looked hampered, but I think there's some element of just remembering how great Paige played in the second half of big games (especially big conference games) as a sophomore. Reasonable people can differ on how real "clutch" is vs. how much is just luck, but the massive improvements during games Paige was making as a sophomore was just not sustainable, and IMO at least some of his "problem" last year was just averages catching up to him.

[CDu]

Yes, because the core of the defense is still there. Beyond Brogdon and Gill are Perrantes, Nolte and Tobey, who are all proven players in Bennett's defensive system. Shayok is a potential defensive killer. Thompson has a lo of defensive potential. I'll be interested to see if Salt (the 6-10, 240 redshirt from Mew Zealand) can have a defensive impact. I agree that Thompson and Salt are question marks, but Bennett has six guys who are proven veterans in his system without those two newcomers. Attrition will be a problem going into 2016-17, when Bennett has to replace Brogdon, Gill, Nolte and Tobey ... not next year.

Nolte is not a good defensive player. Their defense played well in spite of his presence. More of him and I think that defense suffers. Similarly, Tobey is a big step down from Atkins defensively. And I see little reason to assume that Tobey/Thompson/Salt will make up for the loss of Atkins. It could happen, I'm just not ready to count on it. Shayok certainly has the potential to be as good defensively as Anderson was. That's also not a given.

I'm not saying UVa will definitely take a huge step back next year. I'm just saying it's not unreasonable to think they'll take enough of a step back for UNC to overtake them. And to go all dramatic like "I have no respect for someone who thinks that" is quite extreme.


Fair criticism. The problem is that kind of projection is unknowable ... we just know it will happen because it always does. Before, I cited FSU 2012, Miami 2013, Virginia 2014 and Notre Dam 2015 as four teams that went from out of the NCAA tournament to the top 10 (and ACC champions). I should note that each of those teams went from clearly worse than UNC the year before to better than UNC in their title years. Will there be a team like this year? Maybe FSU? Maybe Miami? If not in the ACC, there will be several on the national scene. Teams will add players who will make a big difference -- UNC is adding nobody. UNC is basically the same team they've had the last two years -- a very good offensive team and a mediocre defensive team.

But why was FSU suddenly good in 2012? It certainly wasn't because of some major infusion of talent. In fact, FSU lost their best player (Chris Singleton) to the draft in 2011 and their starting PG to graduation and didn't add anyone noteworthy in 2012. Yet they managed to, with the same core of guys minus two key starters, make the jump in 2012, mainly because veterans Michael Snaer and Bernard James made huge steps forward.

Miami's only key addition in 2013 was Shane Larkin. Is there any reason to simply assume that more PT for Berry and Jackson and Pinson (all of whom were much more thought of coming out of high school than Larkin) can't balance that out? The big difference was guys like Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson becoming stars.

UVa was different. They added an all-conference player to the mix. But I'm not sure that the guys coming in were dramatically better than the guys going out. That was largely a one-off (Gill wasn't as good as Mitchell; Brogdon probably a bit better than Harris). The only other guy added was Perrantes, who was good but not exactly game-changing good. Still, I'll count that as different than what UNC will be. And Notre Dame are certainly different: they added an all-american player to the mix. UNC isn't likely to be similar to that in terms of adding new faces. But are there really a dozen teams that are going to suddenly add an all-conference caliber player and overtake UNC? Really?

So note that you have named two examples of the type of team that could unexpectedly overtake UNC next year. Your other two examples are actually teams whose profiles look quite similar to UNC's in terms of being just okay teams that got older/more experienced rather than teams that took advantage of huge influxes of talent. Based on that, I'd say that (1) there aren't likely to be a dozen teams jumping over UNC next year, and (2) UNC might be just as likely to be one of the teams making the jump as anyone else.


More experience -- yes ... but they had more experience in 2015 and what good did that do them? More "depth of talent"? I don't buy that at all. How many players on this UNC roster are potential NBA lottery picks? How many are potential first-round picks? There's a reason that Paige and Johnson and Meeks are back at UNC -- they are not in demand by the NBA. Maybe Jackson emerges as a lottery-type player, but I think it's likely that Ingram, Allen, Thornton, Jeter and Kennard produce more lottery/first round NBA picks than the entire UNC roster.

First, while UNC had more experience last year, the gap was much less wide, and the talent gap was wider. Duke had the two best players, by far, less year. Arguably, they had the three best. Duke will be almost as young next year as they were this year; UNC will be almost exactly a year older as a team. So that difference in experience helps make up some of the talent gap. And it wasn't like they were wildly far behind us last year.

And I said Duke has more top-end talent. Just that UNC has more next-tier talent. I think Ingram is the only sure-fire lottery pick in the bunch. I don't see any reason why guys like Jackson, Pinson, Johnson, and Berry can't be just as likely to be lottery picks/first round picks as Allen, Thornton, Jeter, and Kennard. All are about equally unproven commodities at this point, and UNC's group was slightly more highly-regarded coming out of high school.. And I think Paige, once healthy again, will play his way into the back end of the first round too. And then UNC still has Hicks (a top-15 recruit) as well. He could certainly finally tap into the talent that had him so highly rated out of high school. And it ignores Meeks - a talented but wildly out-of-shape high school who is just starting to approach being in shape for ACC play.


Well, I have to question your definition of "key rotation players" Turner, yes, but as you mention they replace him with Henderson. But Desmond Lee? A guy who averaged 7.8 minutes a game, while playing in 28 of 35 games? (He was under six minutes a game, while playing just 12 of 18 ACC games). Kyle Washington was a key member of the rotation early, even a starter, But he lost his starting role to Leonard Freeman late in the season and saw more and more of his playing time disappear because Gottfried gave more minutes to the Martin twins and went wit a heavy rotation of Abu and Anya. Washington left, essentially because he was squeezed out of the rotation. He would have been a nice option to have on the bench, but his loss is no tragedy.

I think that without the Lacey departure, N.C. State would have had a stronger team back than UNC. With Henderson on hand to replace Turner ... the losses of Washington and the little-used Lee (who played less at State last year than Jackson Simmons did for UNC) hurt State less than the loss of Tokoto -- UNC's one quality defender -- hurt the Heels.

I hadn't realized Lee played so little. But still, it is worth noting that he did provide minutes as needed off the bench. The Pack has literally nobody on the bench at guard right now, even if they still had Lacey. They have no backup PG. They have no backup SG. They have a backup SF (one of the Martins), but nobody worthy of starting at SF. They have only one backup big (unless you count Kirk and the other Martin, but neither is very good). With Lacey, they would have had a very nice starting lineup (Barber, Lacey, Henderson, Abu, Freeman/Anya) but a very limited bench (Anya/Freeman, the Martin twins, Kirk, and no guards). I would take UNC's squad without Tokoto over NC State's squad with no bench, simply because State would have no margin for error.

[Duvall]

But why was FSU suddenly good in 2012? It certainly wasn't because of some major infusion of talent. In fact, FSU lost their best player (Chris Singleton) to the draft in 2011 and their starting PG to graduation and didn't add anyone noteworthy in 2012. Yet they managed to, with the same core of guys minus two key starters, make the jump in 2012, mainly because veterans Michael Snaer and Bernard James made huge steps forward.

Miami's only key addition in 2013 was Shane Larkin. Is there any reason to simply assume that more PT for Berry and Jackson and Pinson (all of whom were much more thought of coming out of high school than Larkin) can't balance that out? The big difference was guys like Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson becoming stars.

Larkin was a sophomore in 2013, which bolsters your point.

[Kedsy]

I don't see any reason why guys like Jackson, Pinson, Johnson, and Berry can't be just as likely to be lottery picks/first round picks as Allen, Thornton, Jeter, and Kennard. All are about equally unproven commodities at this point, and UNC's group was slightly more highly-regarded coming out of high school.

Not that it takes too much away from your main points, but the UNC quartet you name wasn't more highly regarded than the Duke quartet.

Obviously we don't have final RSCI numbers for Duke's freshmen, but using the best numbers we have at this time:

UNC: 9 (Jackson), 15 (Pinson), 25 (Berry), 40 (Johnson)

Duke: 9* (Jeter), 17** (Thornton), 21* (Kennard), 24 (Allen)

* - using preliminary RSCI from last summer
** - using ESPN's ranking (only service I'm aware of that has recalibrated Derryck's rank since he's reclassified)

So, granted, the two groups are similar. Except the fourth Duke player is still top 25 while the fourth UNC player is 40th. I don't see any way you could fairly describe UNC's group as "slightly more highly-regarded coming out of high school."

[Duvall]

Not that it takes too much away from your main points, but the UNC quartet you name wasn't more highly regarded than the Duke quartet.

Obviously we don't have final RSCI numbers for Duke's freshmen, but using the best numbers we have at this time:

UNC: 9 (Jackson), 15 (Pinson), 25 (Berry), 40 (Johnson)

Duke: 9* (Jeter), 17** (Thornton), 21* (Kennard), 24 (Allen)

* - using preliminary RSCI from last summer
** - using ESPN's ranking (only service I'm aware of that has recalibrated Derryck's rank since he's reclassified)

So, granted, the two groups are similar. Except the fourth Duke player is still top 25 while the fourth UNC player is 40th. I don't see any way you could fairly describe UNC's group as "slightly more highly-regarded coming out of high school."

Probably want to throw in a few more asterisks for comparing ranks between classes, especially since the 2014 high school class was much more highly regarded, with players like Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Eamonn Brennan's revised Top 25. (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12788000/kentucky-wildcats-stay-atop-revised-way-too-early-top-25) Spoiler alert: Duke at #7.

[Olympic Fan]

Eamonn Brennan's revised Top 25. (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12788000/kentucky-wildcats-stay-atop-revised-way-too-early-top-25) Spoiler alert: Duke at #7.

I just saw this ... talk about idiot "experts".

As much as I think UNC is being overrated in most circles, it's nothing compared to this -- Kentucky No. 1?

As their roster now stands, I do not think they are a top 10 team. Now, the addition Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray and/or Thon Maker could change that, but the roster they now have ... that's a ridiculous pick.

[Duvall]

Eamonn Brennan's revised Top 25. (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12788000/kentucky-wildcats-stay-atop-revised-way-too-early-top-25)

What?


Still, the returning trio of Alex Poythress (a senior who would have declared for the draft had he not torn his ACL this season), Tyler Ulis (arguably the best all-around point guard in the country) and Marcus Lee (a freakish interior talent) would earn slavish headlines in just about any other context.

Also, what?

I like Ulis, but does Brennan know that Kris Dunn came back to college?

[CDu]

I just saw this ... talk about idiot "experts".

As much as I think UNC is being overrated in most circles, it's nothing compared to this -- Kentucky No. 1?

As their roster now stands, I do not think they are a top 10 team. Now, the addition Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray and/or Thon Maker could change that, but the roster they now have ... that's a ridiculous pick.

Based on what he wrote, it appears that he is assuming Brown, Murray and Maker will all join Kentucky. If that happens, I would be okay with them as #1. But that is a dirty way to do this: he isn't basing it on who is on the roster; he is basing it on who he thinks will be on the roster. Not very appropriate.

I also think he is overrating Ulis (arguably the best PG in the country? No. Maybe the best returning sophomore PG, but not the best PG.) and Lee (A freakish interior talent? Based on what?)

[Duke95]

Well, a lineup of Ullis, Briscoe, Labissiere, Poythress, and Lee is pretty impressive. Say, Top 5 maybe.
I do think, as others have mentioned, Brennan is assuming some of the other recruits come to UK.

[Kedsy]

...and Lee (A freakish interior talent? Based on what?)

Yeah, that's really where his analysis totally falls off the rails. If you look at a comparison between Marcus Lee's 2014-15 statistics and Marshall Plumlee's (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=marshall-plumlee&p1=2-marcus-lee), they are fairly similar but Marshall was more impressive overall.

And for those who prefer an eye test over statistical analysis, there wasn't a lot for the eyes to see, since Lee didn't play except in garbage time over the last third of the 2014-15 season, and averaged fewer than 4 mpg (counting DNP-CDs as 0 minutes) in the 2013-14 season. The best you can say about the idea that Marcus Lee as a starter would be a positive on a top five team is that there's absolutely no evidence for it.

[dukelifer]

I just saw this ... talk about idiot "experts".

As much as I think UNC is being overrated in most circles, it's nothing compared to this -- Kentucky No. 1?

As their roster now stands, I do not think they are a top 10 team. Now, the addition Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray and/or Thon Maker could change that, but the roster they now have ... that's a ridiculous pick.

It also depends on the quality of the SEC and how many games KY will lose. They will be good. They are certainly in the mix of the top 5 teams.

[tbyers11]

I just saw this ... talk about idiot "experts".

As much as I think UNC is being overrated in most circles, it's nothing compared to this -- Kentucky No. 1?

As their roster now stands, I do not think they are a top 10 team. Now, the addition Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray and/or Thon Maker could change that, but the roster they now have ... that's a ridiculous pick.


What?
Also, what?

I like Ulis, but does Brennan know that Kris Dunn came back to college?


Based on what he wrote, it appears that he is assuming Brown, Murray and Maker will all join Kentucky. If that happens, I would be okay with them as #1. But that is a dirty way to do this: he isn't basing it on who is on the roster; he is basing it on who he thinks will be on the roster. Not very appropriate.

I also think he is overrating Ulis (arguably the best PG in the country? No. Maybe the best returning sophomore PG, but not the best PG.) and Lee (A freakish interior talent? Based on what?)

I agree with all of these thoughts. As far as I can tell UK currently has 9 scholarship players on their roster. Neither Derek Willis (JR) and Dominique Hawkins (JR) were top 100 recruits and neither has played much more than mop-up minutes in their first 2 years. So, UK really has 7 players on the roster.


Alex Poythress is a very good player but seems to be not quite a SF and not quite a PF. His minutes dropped greatly from his freshman year to sophomore year. He is also coming off an ACL tear in December
Marcus Lee is an athletic jumping jack of a PF whose skills seem limited to rebounds, put-backs and dunks so far. As Kedsy, pointed out his actual stats (not his potential) compare unfavorably to MP3
Tyler Ullis is a very good PG, but wouldn't call him best in the land as Brennan did. Great on ball defender who shot 3s well but his size can be exploited by larger guards.
Isaiah Briscoe is a great talent, but seems to have a me-first attitude similar to the Harrison twins
Skal Labissiere is a stud. If he's eligible he will be one of the top 5 frosh in the country next year
Charles Matthews is a four star 6'4" SG ranked as #65, #21 SG by Scout. Doubt he is a big impact player next year.
Mychal Mulder is a JUCO 6'4" SG ranked as the #17 overall, #5 SG JUCO prospect by 247sports. It's hard to tell how good he will be but since he is rated immediately behind JUCO SG's that committed to Arizona St and Buffalo I think he is more likely a Matthews type prospect than a Briscoe type prospect.

That is not a #1 team. They have five top tier 5 star players and two next tier 4 stars. If everything goes perfectly and everyone is healthy and meshes into their roles that's a top 10 team with a chance to make some serious noise in the postseason. But there are a lot of question marks there. Seems closer to top 20 than #1 as currently constructed. Sure, if they get 2 out of Brown, Murray, or Maker we are talking possible #1. Brennan must be ranking them as such but he doesn't say it.

[Wander]

I largely agree with you guys about Kentucky, but if people putting Kentucky and UNC at #1 are idiots and deserve no respect or whatever, who IS number one, and where would you rank teams like UNC? That's sort of the problem - it's all relative to everyone else. I guess I would probably pick Kansas myself, but it's not a year like last year where there's an obvious choice or two for the top spot - anyone you put at the top is open to criticism.

[CDu]

I largely agree with you guys about Kentucky, but if people putting Kentucky and UNC at #1 are idiots and deserve no respect or whatever, who IS number one, and where would you rank teams like UNC? That's sort of the problem - it's all relative to everyone else. I guess I would probably pick Kansas myself, but it's not a year like last year where there's an obvious choice or two for the top spot - anyone you put at the top is open to criticism.

I would start with Kansas and Iowa State (if Hoiberg stays), UVa, UNC, and Maryland in my mix for the top-5. Duke and probably Oklahoma would be ahead of Kentucky (without Brown, Murray, and Maker). That's 6 or 7 right off the top of my head without giving it too much thought.

[Wander]

I would start with Kansas and Iowa State (if Hoiberg stays), UVa, UNC, and Maryland in my mix for the top-5. Duke and probably Oklahoma would be ahead of Kentucky (without Brown, Murray, and Maker). That's 6 or 7 right off the top of my head without giving it too much thought.

I think that's probably pretty close to what I'd have. Something like: Kansas, Iowa State, Maryland, Oklahoma, UNC, UVA, Wichita State, Duke, Kentucky, SMU as my top 10. I'm pretty unconfident in that, especially putting all those big 12 teams on top again, but I don't really see a great alternative, either.

[westwall]

I would start with Kansas and Iowa State (if Hoiberg stays), UVa, UNC, and Maryland in my mix for the top-5. Duke and probably Oklahoma would be ahead of Kentucky (without Brown, Murray, and Maker). That's 6 or 7 right off the top of my head without giving it too much thought.


FWIW, Bovada's odds board, per CBS Sports, now has Duke tied with KY, MSU and UNC at 10/1 to win the 2016 Championship. Maryland is at 14/1, Kansas at 16/1 and UVA at 18/1. The odds, of course, can and will change depending on where the money flows.