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View Full Version : MBB Natty: Duke vs. Bucky, Pre-Game and In-Game Thread (Apr 6, 9:18 CBS)



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pfrduke
04-04-2015, 09:37 PM
Duke plays for #5 on Monday night. Let's go Devils.

fuse
04-04-2015, 09:39 PM
Win for Quinn!

Tripping William
04-04-2015, 09:53 PM
I can see the argument both ways but, personally, I'd rather this thread not become about BBQ.

Dev11
04-04-2015, 10:09 PM
I can see the argument both ways but, personally, I'd rather this thread not become about BBQ.

More of a fried cheese and New Glarus fan?

Tripping William
04-04-2015, 10:12 PM
More of a fried cheese and New Glarus fan?

And brats.

devildeac
04-04-2015, 10:16 PM
More of a fried cheese and New Glarus fan?

I certainly am. I want Two Women, a Raspberry Tart, a Wisconsin Red and a Moon Man and a block of sharp cheddar with some Triscuits.

devildeac
04-04-2015, 11:21 PM
We are going to be in a war on Monday night.

duke79
04-04-2015, 11:24 PM
We are going to be in a war on Monday night.

Agree........I think a very tough game for Duke. Wisconsin is playing with a lot of momentum...

CDu
04-04-2015, 11:24 PM
Come on, Kedsy's rematch theory! Be right one more time!

stillcrazie
04-04-2015, 11:27 PM
Come on, Kedsy's rematch theory! Be right one more time!

What is the theory???

CDu
04-04-2015, 11:28 PM
What is the theory???

That we do better the second time around against a team.

cptnflash
04-04-2015, 11:30 PM
I'm fairly confident that we can score on Wisconsin. The question will be, can our newfound commitment to defense contain Wisconsin's historically great offense. Kentucky couldn't do it... can we?

NYBri
04-04-2015, 11:34 PM
Agree........I think a very tough game for Duke. Wisconsin is playing with a lot of momentum...

So are we.

WISCY is going to be in a war.

anonj
04-04-2015, 11:35 PM
We can do this!!!

40 minutes, that's all. Play the D we've playing all tournament long and have good games by Tyus and Quinn and I'm thinking we could pull this out!

LET'S GO DUKE!!!

Indy factor baby!!! :cool:

CDu
04-04-2015, 11:35 PM
I'm fairly confident that we can score on Wisconsin. The question will be, can our newfound commitment to defense contain Wisconsin's historically great offense. Kentucky couldn't do it... can we?

In some ways, I think we match up better with Wisconsin than UK did. Kentucky's defensive brilliance was in their ability to clog the lane and block shots. Well, all four of Wisconsin's bigs prefer to face up from the perimeter. They dragged Cauley-Stein and Towns away from the basket and made UK ordinary defensively.

I am not saying it will be easy for us, but we don't mind defending the perimeter.

Udaman
04-04-2015, 11:39 PM
How many times in the final four has the winner of the HUGE semi finals game gone on to lose in the championship? It happens a ton. Duke to Louisville. NC State over Houston. Nova over Georgetown. Kansas over Oklahoma. Uconn over Duke. Duke over Arizona.

It's just really hard to get back up after a hugely emotional win on 2 days rest.

Duke31122
04-04-2015, 11:39 PM
Agree........I think a very tough game for Duke. Wisconsin is playing with a lot of momentum...

I agree, but aren't we as well? I really respect Bo Ryan, and all of his guys. He really runs a great program.

That being said, they celebrated tonight like they won the whole thing. I am really interested to see our guys come out on Monday. I really believe in this group of guys, and I would take them over anyone.

I want to wish Wisconsin the best of luck, but I hope we have better luck on Monday! This will be a great game, but I take our 8 guys and the man at the helm to bring home #5.

AncientPsychicT
04-04-2015, 11:44 PM
How many times in the final four has the winner of the HUGE semi finals game gone on to lose in the championship? It happens a ton. Duke to Louisville. NC State over Houston. Nova over Georgetown. Kansas over Oklahoma. Uconn over Duke. Duke over Arizona.

It's just really hard to get back up after a hugely emotional win on 2 days rest.

Add to that list UConn over Kentucky last year.

Wander
04-04-2015, 11:46 PM
In some ways, I think we match up better with Wisconsin than UK did. Kentucky's defensive brilliance was in their ability to clog the lane and block shots. Well, all four of Wisconsin's bigs prefer to face up from the perimeter. They dragged Cauley-Stein and Towns away from the basket and made UK ordinary defensively.

I am not saying it will be easy for us, but we don't mind defending the perimeter.

Agreed. I think Kentucky, Duke, and Wisconsin are probably all about as good as each other, but with a little bit of a rock-paper-scissors relationship in Wisconsin beats UK, UK beats Duke, and Duke beats Wisconsin.

CR9
04-04-2015, 11:48 PM
4947

gcashwell
04-04-2015, 11:52 PM
Who is going to guard dekker and how?

brevity
04-04-2015, 11:52 PM
Opening line: pick 'em. (https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/584555397735776258)

g-money
04-04-2015, 11:56 PM
Who is going to guard dekker and how?

Winslow (edit: my guess). Should be an awesome matchup.

CDu
04-04-2015, 11:56 PM
Who is going to guard dekker and how?

Winslow can guard Dekker. I am more concerned with Kaminsky. He will test Okafor's willingness to defend all over the court.

Of course, you can ask the same question on the other end: who will guard Winslow? And can they guard Tyus Jones?

dukelifer
04-04-2015, 11:57 PM
Who is going to guard dekker and how?

Guarded him last time. Also last time we played/ Rasheed had a big night with 14 pts.

gcashwell
04-04-2015, 11:58 PM
Winslow can guard Dekker. I am more concerned with Kaminsky. He will test Okafor's willingness to defend all over the court.

Of course, you can ask the same question on the other end: who will guard Winslow? And can they guard Tyus Jones?

Who was on him in the first game and how did we contain him so well then ? Wasn't he hurt?

Chillduck
04-05-2015, 12:00 AM
The last time we played Wisconsin, Sam Dekker was coming off a sprained ankle and only put up a couple of points. Traevon Jackson had a big game against us, but he is no where near where he was. Koenig wasn't much of a factor. However, this is not the same Duke team! I expect one of the great NCAA Championship games in recent history! My conflict is that I am a cheesehead! My hometown friends are giving me a hard time right now! GO DUKE!!!

cptnflash
04-05-2015, 12:02 AM
Who was on him in the first game and how did we contain him so well then ? Wasn't he hurt?

Yes, Dekker only played 24 minutes and scored 5 points. He was still recovering from a sprained ankle and wasn't anything like the player he is today. He will be a major challenge on Monday night, although I agree that Kaminsky is probably an even bigger issue.

Jim3k
04-05-2015, 12:36 AM
Let's get even with the Badgers. They whipped us in the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl, 34-20, our last post-season game of any sort with them (I think). So what if it was football? Revenge will taste better than those terrific brats.

1 24 90
04-05-2015, 12:43 AM
https://twitter.com/jwgiglio/status/584569973542154242/photo/1

Here's the details of the Duke rematches this year.

NashvilleDevil
04-05-2015, 12:48 AM
How many times in the final four has the winner of the HUGE semi finals game gone on to lose in the championship? It happens a ton. Duke to Louisville. NC State over Houston. Nova over Georgetown. Kansas over Oklahoma. Uconn over Duke. Duke over Arizona.

It's just really hard to get back up after a hugely emotional win on 2 days rest.

Duke won the title in 91 after the UNLV win. UCONN won the title in 04 after beating Duke. Indiana won in 87 after beating UNLV. I'd argue that the Duke/Maryland final four game was bigger than the Arizona/Michigan St game and Duke won the title.

juise
04-05-2015, 12:52 AM
https://twitter.com/jwgiglio/status/584569973542154242/photo/1

Here's the details of the Duke rematches this year.

Good thing this isn't a 3rd game. ;)

Wahoo2000
04-05-2015, 12:54 AM
Really interested to see the game on Monday night. There are mismatches for both sides. Question is which side will be more able to take advantage of those mismatches and get the title?

In Duke's favor, I see the Wisconsin guards having a really tough time staying in front of Jones and Cook, and Okafor is going to present huge problems for Kaminsky if he can't at least semi-effectively deny. I think Kaminsky is too smart to pick up dumb fouls when he likely can't stop Okafor anyway, so that matchup will be more determined by how often Kaminsky and help D can prevent entry.

For Wisconsin, one of the big keys will be forcing Okafor to get out and cover Kaminsky behind the arc, opening up space for Dekker and other Wis penetrators. Duke could try going zone I suppose, but Wis is SOOOOO well-schooled and efficient offensively, it'll be tough. They just seem like one of those teams you just cannot zone effectively due to fantastic ball movement and shooting. I suppose you could zone and end up effectively playing the "hope he miss" defense, but that's a helluva gamble.

X-factor: the Dekker/Winslow matchup. If either of these guys can win this matchup (from a "impact-the-game" standpoint) decisively, I think it almost certain that team wins.

This one is just too tough to make a pick with any kind of confidence. If I HAD to pick a side, I'd probably lean towards the Badgers due to their experience being in the final four last year and having played vastly superior competition in their last 2 games compared with Zags and MSU (I know AZ barely edged Zags in December, but they've been one of the best four teams in the country with Duke, KY, and Wis for the last month). Just a really, really close matchup. I'd be shocked to see a line of more than 1.5 either way.

brevity
04-05-2015, 01:00 AM
Let's get even with the Badgers. They whipped us in the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl, 34-20, our last post-season game of any sort with them (I think). So what if it was football? Revenge will taste better than those terrific brats.

Wow, 1995 was quite a year. The Hall of Fame Bowl was in January. In the other version of football, Wisconsin defeated Duke 2-0 that December to win its first NCAA men's soccer title (http://www.ncaa.com/history/soccer-men/d1). 20 years later, it's payback time.

Mike Corey
04-05-2015, 01:00 AM
What a tremendous matchup this will be.

Both teams playing at an extremely high level right now.

Key to the game, IMO, will be containing role players. Dekker and Kaminsky will get theirs; Duke's stars will get theirs. Who will step up on both sides?

We're going to have to defend the perimeter well, and attack them in the lane. I'd like to see Okafor get Kaminsky in early foul trouble.

And for sheer fun, I'm excited to see Winslow v. Dekker.

Think we match up (much) better against Wisky than UK, but clearly we'd be in a dogfight either way.

Let's get it done, Devils. Almost home.

gumbomoop
04-05-2015, 01:01 AM
Just as the first MSU-Duke game couldn't tell us a lot about tonight's game, as Duke has improved tremendously and MSU has been on a roll, so the first Duke-Wisconsin game can give us only limited info, not nearly enough.

We've spent plenty of time discussing how Duke is such a different team -- especially on D -- from back then. Such as how Tyus has grown in confidence (not to mention runners from the left side of the lane). Ditto how Quinn has become a dependable 3-bomber and inspiring leader. Ditto how admirably Amile has accepted his role. Ditto how Marshall contributes and especially recently Grayson has become a guy that we actually let loose to create points (!!!). Most ditto of all, how Justise Winslow has become an exceptional clutch player at both ends (including as a dependable FT shooter). I could go on, and this brief list probably misses several crucial differences.

So how different, how much and in what ways better, are the Badgers? A lot better, yes?

Jackson was their best player in that first game with us, but he's just now coming back from an injury. He helped his team tonight, so he will be important, but nowhere near their most dangerous player. That would be Kaminsky and the now healthy and very confident Dekker. Hayes looks a different and very tough player, as are their starting guards.

This is a big, strong, smart, experienced team. Geez, they out-rebounded UK by 12 tonight, and 12-6 on the O-boards. Probably the most intriguing strategy Krzyzewski employed at Kohl, IIRC, was that K surprised Wisc by "switching everything." Seemed to confuse them. Well, I don't know whether K will employ that strategy Monday night, but Wisconsin coped easily with UK switches tonight, and actually took advantage of such switches a number of times.

I worry that this may be a major problem for us Monday. For Wisconsin has size everywhere, and are well-organized on both O and D. When they're on O, I worry that this time they will fairly consistently take advantage when Quinn, Tyus, Matt, or Grayson switch onto Kaminsky, Dekker, Hayes, even Dukan.

Now maybe we'll be able to out-quick them when one of their bigs switches onto our quick guys, but I'm more worried about their ability to deal with switches and mismatches than confident in our ability equally to take advantage. I'm worried about Wisconsin's rebounding and multiple 3-bombers, about the inspired play of Kaminsky and Dekker.

I assume we'll start our small-ball lineup, and that Wisconsin will start with a big height advantage. Jahlil and Kaminsky look a standoff. Does Dekker or more likely Hayes start on Justise, leaving Dekker to guard Matt? More important to me, which of Justise and Matt start out guarding Dekker and Hayes, respectively. It just appears to me that not only must Marshall give important minutes trying -- repeat, trying -- to stick with Kaminsky, but Amile must play big minutes guarding Dekker/Hayes, and give us big rebounds. That is, will Matt prove a more difficult matchup problem for Dekker/Hayes, or will either/both of them overpower Matt?

ETA: as I was typing, Wahoo2000 posted (#33 above) some of these same issues.

Potato Head
04-05-2015, 01:24 AM
Everyone's saying the game is hinging on Winslow v. Dekker and Okafor v. Kaminsky, but I think Tyus and Quinn vs. the Wisconsin backcourt is what's going to make this game. Dekker and Frank will get theirs, but our backcourt is better, and we can make up the difference and then some with big games from the little guys.

KandG
04-05-2015, 01:29 AM
For Wisconsin has size everywhere, and are well-organized on both O and D. When they're on O, I worry that this time they will fairly consistently take advantage when Quinn, Tyus, Matt, or Grayson switch onto Kaminsky, Dekker, Hayes, even Dukan.

Now maybe we'll be able to out-quick them when one of their bigs switches onto our quick guys, but I'm more worried about their ability to deal with switches and mismatches than confident in our ability equally to take advantage. I'm worried about Wisconsin's rebounding and multiple 3-bombers, about the inspired play of Kaminsky and Dekker.

I assume we'll start our small-ball lineup, and that Wisconsin will start with a big height advantage. Jahlil and Kaminsky look a standoff. Does Dekker or more likely Hayes start on Justise, leaving Dekker to guard Matt? More important to me, which of Justise and Matt start out guarding Dekker and Hayes, respectively. It just appears to me that not only must Marshall give important minutes trying -- repeat, trying -- to stick with Kaminsky, but Amile must play big minutes guarding Dekker/Hayes, and give us big rebounds. That is, will Matt prove a more difficult matchup problem for Dekker/Hayes, or will either/both of them overpower Matt?



Wisconsin's size and maturity definitely worry me the most, because of all the teams we've played this year, they seem most primed to exploit the mismatches. Also, Amile and Marshall gaining minutes at the expense of Matt and Grayson to match their size feels like a minus to me -- K will have to get creative with substitutions the way he did with Gonzaga.

We're definitely better than the last time we played Wisconsin, but I'd argue they're better too. If it ends up being the type of game where we have to outscore them to win, I'm concerned because our identity at the end of the season has been our defense, and I worry about our composure and focus remaining tight if we're not able to get stops.

With that said, I thought Duke could get to the Final Four but didn't think they could win it all just a few weeks ago. Now they have as good a chance as any Duke team has ever had, and they keep finding ways to win even when opponents take away things like our 3 pointers or keep Okafor under double figures. It should be a wonderful game between two elite, well-coached teams. Can't wait.

juise
04-05-2015, 01:33 AM
ESPN keeps quoting that their BPI index gives Wisconsin a 64% chance. FiveThirtyEight says 53% for the Badgers. This is going to be a great game.

uh_no
04-05-2015, 01:33 AM
ESPN keeps quoting that their BPI index gives Wisconsin a 64% chance. FiveThirtyEight says 53% for the Badgers. This is going to be a great game.

Anything I look at, anything I think, can't allow me to handicap either team.

This game is a toss up in my mind. through and through.

weezie
04-05-2015, 01:34 AM
....20 years later, it's payback time.

Grrrrrr THAT'S the spirit!

g-money
04-05-2015, 02:18 AM
ESPN keeps quoting that their BPI index gives Wisconsin a 64% chance. FiveThirtyEight says 53% for the Badgers. This is going to be a great game.

I think the BPI needs a tuneup. (Is this the same as the BDI - the Dickie V bald dome index?) We beat Wisconsin by 10 on their home court earlier this year. Yes, they're playing better now, but so are we. I question any math or logic that says we should be nearly 2:1 underdogs in the rematch.

On the other hand, I do agree with Vegas's assessment: This one's a toss up. Which makes life much simpler from a wagering standpoint. :)

hurleyfor3
04-05-2015, 02:40 AM
Bucky is very, very, very, very good. That's all I've got. You know how they decided to be crazy sick on defense in the last five or six minutes? That's like us, if you condense the season into one game.

People around me at the game were saying things like "I'm not so sure we want Wisconsin," when Kentucky was the assumed fate. So can we play Gonzaga again or something?

Oriole Way
04-05-2015, 02:45 AM
Agree........I think a very tough game for Duke. Wisconsin is playing with a lot of momentum...

And Michigan State wasn't?

KandG
04-05-2015, 03:12 AM
Posted by duke79
Agree........I think a very tough game for Duke. Wisconsin is playing with a lot of momentum...


And Michigan State wasn't?

Michigan State had momentum, but let's be real about their talent and the benefit of a favorable region.

Yes they played Wisconsin tough in the final of their conference tournament and beat the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in their region, but beating a weak Georgia team, a weakened Virginia team, mercurial Oklahoma and a surging but still limited Louisville team was not exactly what Duke or Wisconsin had to deal with in playing Gonzaga and Arizona respectively to get to the Final Four -- let alone Wisconsin beating Kentucky last night, meaning they've beaten the top two KenPom teams in a week.

That doesn't mean Duke is a decided underdog vs Wisconsin, but I feel comfortable saying they're not going to run Wisconsin off the court the way they did MSU.

Edouble
04-05-2015, 03:27 AM
Really interested to see the game on Monday night. There are mismatches for both sides. Question is which side will be more able to take advantage of those mismatches and get the title?

In Duke's favor, I see the Wisconsin guards having a really tough time staying in front of Jones and Cook, and Okafor is going to present huge problems for Kaminsky if he can't at least semi-effectively deny. I think Kaminsky is too smart to pick up dumb fouls when he likely can't stop Okafor anyway, so that matchup will be more determined by how often Kaminsky and help D can prevent entry.

Did you see Kaminsky's foul on Towns at the end of the game last night? The dumbest of fouls!


For Wisconsin, one of the big keys will be forcing Okafor to get out and cover Kaminsky behind the arc, opening up space for Dekker and other Wis penetrators. Duke could try going zone I suppose, but Wis is SOOOOO well-schooled and efficient offensively, it'll be tough. They just seem like one of those teams you just cannot zone effectively due to fantastic ball movement and shooting. I suppose you could zone and end up effectively playing the "hope he miss" defense, but that's a helluva gamble.

X-factor: the Dekker/Winslow matchup. If either of these guys can win this matchup (from a "impact-the-game" standpoint) decisively, I think it almost certain that team wins.

This one is just too tough to make a pick with any kind of confidence. If I HAD to pick a side, I'd probably lean towards the Badgers due to their experience being in the final four last year and having played vastly superior competition in their last 2 games compared with Zags and MSU (I know AZ barely edged Zags in December, but they've been one of the best four teams in the country with Duke, KY, and Wis for the last month). Just a really, really close matchup. I'd be shocked to see a line of more than 1.5 either way.

I think that's weird. Justise has been the best player thus far in the tournament. I don't see how you can reasonably pick against him for any matchup at this point.

TKG
04-05-2015, 06:42 AM
A little off the beaten path but Plumlee and Grayson could factor big on Monday. Marshall has the ability to guard Kaminsky away from the basket and is big enough (and strong enough) to muscle him if Kaminsky tries his pump fake and drive to the rim. On the offensive end, Marshall can make Kaminsky work or give up easy baskets (Marshall is a force from three feet and closer).

Grayson, if he drives to the basket like he did against Michigan State, could put pressure on Wisconsin's interior. Again, Wisconsin doesn't like to foul so the choice is either let Grayson get lay ups or foul him. Do not really see anyone on Wisconsin who can stay in front of Grayson.

In a game that seems to be evenly matched, it will be the non-headline players that tilt the game one way or the other. IMO, Marshall and Grayson might be the difference on Monday night.

MarkD83
04-05-2015, 06:48 AM
I know there are a lot of side bar threads about things that happened yesterday but we as Duke fans need to concentrate on the Monday game. We only have 2 days of hand-wringing and neurotic comments so I am moving this to the top.

In addition my pair of sarcastic comments seemed to work against MSU so here we go....

We are doomed because Bo Ryan has 4 Div III national championships, Wisc beat MSU by 7 and than 11 in OT, they have been to 4 final fours and 2 national championship games since 1941.
While Duke is coached by K who has 4 Div I national championships, beat MSU by 10 and 20 and have been to 16 final fours and 11 national championship games since 1941

Oh wait...never mind I will try again tomorrow...

DUKIE V(A)
04-05-2015, 06:54 AM
The way Duke played defense last night will keep us in any game with any matchup. A truly exceptional performance. In the first match up with Wiscy, Duke was able to get the shots we wanted and knocked them down at an incredible rate. That may be difficult to replicate against such a strong opponent. Still, I love our defense right now as much as any defense we have played in recent memory.

davekay1971
04-05-2015, 07:22 AM
More of a fried cheese and New Glarus fan?

Win or lose on Monday, I'm clearly going to have to go show my appreciation for the state of Wisconsin one day with a Sunday trip to Lambeau Field (going to a Packers home game in December is on my wife's bucket list...going to a Packer's home game in September is on mine), and a trip to the New Glares Brewing Company!

http://www.beeradvocate.com/lists/state/wi/

quahog174
04-05-2015, 07:51 AM
Kaminsky seemed a little slow last night getting back defensively against Towns and Cauley-Stein. I think Jah may have an advantage we can exploit if we push the tempo and not let Wisconsin control the pace.

dukelifer
04-05-2015, 08:13 AM
Bucky is very, very, very, very good. That's all I've got. You know how they decided to be crazy sick on defense in the last five or six minutes? That's like us, if you condense the season into one game.

People around me at the game were saying things like "I'm not so sure we want Wisconsin," when Kentucky was the assumed fate. So can we play Gonzaga again or something?

They are good but they play really hard. They took that game from KY by just wanting it more. Duke will need to match that intensity. Wisconsin will wear down at the end and Duke will need to be ready. The key is to stay close and win it at the end with solid play. This will be the toughest game Duke has played all year.

Duke3517
04-05-2015, 08:17 AM
Two teams that have peaked at the right time, Winslow in my eyes has been either the best or second best player in the tournament only behind Kaminsky. The first game came down to Wisconsin not being able to handle Duke's guards. I wonder what kind of adjustments they will bring. But it is probably safe to say they are a much different team now then they were in December but Duke is not the same team either.

Duke76
04-05-2015, 08:48 AM
4947

all you need, please post again just before the game tomorrow!

roywhite
04-05-2015, 08:54 AM
The way Duke played defense last night will keep us in any game with any matchup. A truly exceptional performance. In the first match up with Wiscy, Duke was able to get the shots we wanted and knocked them down at an incredible rate. That may be difficult to replicate against such a strong opponent. Still, I love our defense right now as much as any defense we have played in recent memory.

Agree. I think we can pressure these guys. Yes, their big guys handle the ball well, but I think we can pressure and trap their guards, turn them over, or at least make them start their offense from way out. Quinn Cook has become a very effective defender; Matt Jones and Justise are very good, and now Grayson Allen has become part of the pressure defense.

NYBri
04-05-2015, 08:56 AM
We have K. They have someone else.

Advantage: We

Duke76
04-05-2015, 08:57 AM
all you need, please post again just before the game tomorrow!

also are we the home team or not? if we are not what jersey does Quinn go with?

MChambers
04-05-2015, 08:58 AM
Wisconsin plays a very compact man to man and isn't particularly quick, so Duke may be able to drive and dish for 3s. Hope we shoot them better than last night.

Foul trouble could be an issue for both teams, since neither is very deep.

I feel good about our chances, which once again is making me nervous. Of course, that worked out okay against MSU. . .

ChrisP
04-05-2015, 09:01 AM
56, 49, 57, 52, 61 - No, these are not fictitious championships claimed by the Heels but rather the number of points allowed by Duke in each game this NCAA tourney. The best anyone has shot against us in the past 5 games is 44% (Zags) and the most FG's made by an opponent is 24 (Robert Morris). Three point D has been impressive as well. MSU hit 35% last night (but one wonders what that stat would look like if we hadn't given them 4 wide open looks to start the game).

Folks, we're not playing great defense - we have played OUTSTANDING defense in this tournament. I'm very pleasantly surprised, I must say, as this team often times seemed not to pass the old "eye test" of playing great defense. But....wow. Just...wow! What an effort thus far. I think that if (and I know it's a big IF because Wiscy is a great offensive team) we can give another great effort on defense on Monday night, we'll be cutting down the nets.

No doubt about it though, Wisconsin is a terrific, talented, well-coached team. I love Bo and really like the kids on this year's team. Seems to be a classy program. Heck, Bo even told us so in that his players, you know, actually go to class :D

"They" say defense wins championships. I certainly hope so!

NashvilleDevil
04-05-2015, 09:06 AM
Bucky is very, very, very, very good. That's all I've got. You know how they decided to be crazy sick on defense in the last five or six minutes? That's like us, if you condense the season into one game.

People around me at the game were saying things like "I'm not so sure we want Wisconsin," when Kentucky was the assumed fate. So can we play Gonzaga again or something?

Duke is also very, very, very, very good. My favorite thing the talking heads are saying is how different Wisconsin is from the December matchup. No mention that Duke is a different team too. Duke is also about the fourth biggest story right now. 1. Wisconsin winning. 2. Kentucky losing out on the perfect season. 3. Andrew Harrison's press conference mumblings. 4. Duke winning.

wilko
04-05-2015, 09:11 AM
Wiscy is certainly capable of winning and they are an honorable opponent.

While losing to them would certainly be disappointing, there are OTHER teams that would bother me more if we lost to them instead... (UK, UNC, UMd).


In my limited observation (standing, I cant sit) with the headphones on (need complete focus)..
Duke has struggled when we are NOT the quicker guards. I think it starts there..

If Tyus and Cook AND Allen, can get by and stay in front of their man - I really really like our chances.

Utley
04-05-2015, 09:21 AM
Didn't we play a sort of junk defense against them in the first game where K doubled whoever had the ball? I thought it threw them off and they never recovered. I kept waiting for someone else to try that and that never did. I'd be surprised if we don't try it again or some other wrinkle to disrupt their flow.

Totally agree that Wiscy is playing good but at this point we have just been so,good throughout the tourney that I am going to choose to believe. It's crazy the number of parallels to 2010 - the latest being us playing a semifinal game just shy of perfection (WVU) and an unbeatable KY team that was likely a matchup nightmare being taken out for us.

NashvilleDevil
04-05-2015, 09:24 AM
Didn't we play a sort of junk defense against them in the first game where K doubled whoever had the ball? I thought it threw them off and they never recovered. I kept waiting for someone else to try that and that never did. I'd be surprised if we don't try it again or some other wrinkle to disrupt their flow.

Totally agree that Wiscy is playing good but at this point we have just been so,good throughout the tourney that I am going to choose to believe. It's crazy the number of parallels to 2010 - the latest being us playing a semifinal game just shy of perfection (WVU) and an unbeatable KY team that was likely a matchup nightmare being taken out for us.

Duke switche'd on every screen in the first game. At least I think that is what they did.

OldPhiKap
04-05-2015, 09:40 AM
I can see the argument both ways but, personally, I'd rather this thread not become about BBQ.

Openly laughed at this, which was bad because I was in a back pew at the time.

(Can't Spork again for a bit, so shout out here).

Neals384
04-05-2015, 09:43 AM
OK, here are some crazy predictions for the game.

Wiscy doubles Jah, and he puts up a double-double: 10 assists and 10 rebounds.
Amile also gets a double-double.
Grayson has a quintuple deuce: 2 each dunks, steals, assists, rebounds and blocks.
Quinn's defense holds the entire Wiscy team without a 3 pointer.
Tyus has 10 steals.
Matt doesn't do anything you'd notice, but Duke is +15 with Matt in the game.
Marshall puts his career-perfect record on the line by tossing up a 3-ptr as the shot clock expires: nothing but net!
Justise scores 30 and wins the MOP.
Nick & Sean both score.
Coach 1K falls off his stool.

OldPhiKap
04-05-2015, 09:52 AM
56, 49, 57, 52, 61 - No, these are not fictitious championships claimed by the Heels but rather the number of points allowed by Duke in each game this NCAA tourney. The best anyone has shot against us in the past 5 games is 44% (Zags) and the most FG's made by an opponent is 24 (Robert Morris). Three point D has been impressive as well. MSU hit 35% last night (but one wonders what that stat would look like if we hadn't given them 4 wide open looks to start the game).

Folks, we're not playing great defense - we have played OUTSTANDING defense in this tournament. I'm very pleasantly surprised, I must say, as this team often times seemed not to pass the old "eye test" of playing great defense. But....wow. Just...wow! What an effort thus far. I think that if (and I know it's a big IF because Wiscy is a great offensive team) we can give another great effort on defense on Monday night, we'll be cutting down the nets.

No doubt about it though, Wisconsin is a terrific, talented, well-coached team. I love Bo and really like the kids on this year's team. Seems to be a classy program. Heck, Bo even told us so in that his players, you know, actually go to class :D

"They" say defense wins championships. I certainly hope so!

This is a great post and shows the strength of our run. We can score. If you string together a few stops, you can rip off a few mini-runs that make the difference or give you the working margin you need.

Wisconsin is an outstanding team, with a great coach and top caliber talent. They have been consistently good all year and are playing great ball right now.

And so are we.

Pick 'EM sounds right, although I've also seen us a one-point dog. We are 4-0 I think as underdogs this year, so I prefer that line. But should be a hell of a game.

gumbomoop
04-05-2015, 09:54 AM
Didn't we play a sort of junk defense against them in the first game where K doubled whoever had the ball? I thought it threw them off and they never recovered. I kept waiting for someone else to try that and that never did. I'd be surprised if we don't try it again or some other wrinkle to disrupt their flow.

I'll repeat a comment I made upthread (post #36). Yes, K did surprise Wisconsin back then, by switching everything, so that sometimes one of our guards was on Kaminsky. I'm skeptical that this would be a good strategy on Monday, because Bo can prepare for it, and more important because his 3 main bigs (Kaminsky, Hayes, Dekker) are so much more effective now. My guess, and thus fear, is that Wisconsin is now much more capable of exploiting height/strength mismatches than is our switch-everything defense capable of puzzling them.

Our defense has been remarkably good in the tourney. If K employs the switch-everything defense, I'll assume he'll have a Plan B if it isn't working this time.

OldPhiKap
04-05-2015, 09:59 AM
I'll repeat a comment I made upthread (post #36). Yes, K did surprise Wisconsin back then, by switching everything, so that sometimes one of our guards was on Kaminsky. I'm skeptical that this would be a good strategy on Monday, because Bo can prepare for it, and more important because his 3 main bigs (Kaminsky, Hayes, Dekker) are so much more effective now. My guess, and thus fear, is that Wisconsin is now much more capable of exploiting height/strength mismatches than is our switch-everything defense capable of puzzling them.

Our defense has been remarkably good in the tourney. If K employs the switch-everything defense, I'll assume he'll have a Plan B if it isn't working this time.

FWIW, K said last nights hat they we're not expecting Sparty to guard the three like they did out of the gate, so at the first T.O. He adjusted and told everyone to drive the rim. Dude knows the score.

gurufrisbee
04-05-2015, 10:15 AM
I just still can't get over the amazing contrast between how much I didn't even want to see last year's title game and hated that whole experience and how much I am loving it this year!!

camion
04-05-2015, 10:17 AM
FWIW, K said last nights hat they we're not expecting Sparty to guard the three like they did out of the gate, so at the first T.O. He adjusted and told everyone to drive the rim. Dude knows the score.

This K guy seems to know a little bit about basketball. I predict a great future for him.


As to the upcoming game, I'm looking forward to it. I think Wisconsin will be favored and I'm picking Duke to win (I'm a bit biased).

In Wisconsin's favor:
Playing great team basketball
Big.
Versatile.
Experienced.
One game away from history.

In Duke's favor:
Playing great team basketball.
Defense (Who'd a thunk it.)
More rested.
Wisc. coming of their game of the year.
One game away from history.

It should be a great game.

Furniture
04-05-2015, 10:20 AM
We have been underrated all tourney and it seems like that is about to continue vs. Wisconsin. It's a good sign!

Bob Green
04-05-2015, 10:30 AM
Key to the game, IMO, will be containing role players. Dekker and Kaminsky will get theirs; Duke's stars will get theirs. Who will step up on both sides?



Quality defensive minutes from Jefferson and Plumlee could be huge. Those guys have the length to counter the Badgers' height. Will Coach K employ the Twin Towers and throw zone at Wisconsin in an attempt to mix it up?

uh_no
04-05-2015, 10:33 AM
Quality defensive minutes from Jefferson and Plumlee could be huge. Those guys have the length to counter the Badgers' height. Will Coach K employ the Twin Towers and throw zone at Wisconsin in an attempt to mix it up?

doubtful. though i loved seeing plumlee on the wing of a 2-3 zone last night, we only really went there because of the 2 fouls on winslow.

We didn't see it against a big utah team, and I'm skeptical we'll see it against wiscy unless a similar situation arises.

DavidBenAkiva
04-05-2015, 11:10 AM
Wow wow wow here we are, one win away from the National Championship! In the way is one of the best teams in the country coming off one of the biggest victories in recent memory. This is going to be a very interesting game. Duke's chances of winning the whole thing, according to FiveThirtyEight's model, has jumped from 6% before the tournament started to 22% before the Final Four to now at 47%. In other words, Wisconsin is the slight favorite.

Ken Pomeroy's ranking system based on offensive and defensive efficiency also has Wisconsin just ahead of Duke. The Badgers have one of the most efficient offensive attacks we've seen in college basketball in a long time. Their offensive efficiency has somehow improved over the regular season during their tournament run, too. Over it's last three games, according to Team Rankings, Wisconsin has posted a 1.265 offensive efficiency ranking between games against UNC, Arizona, and Kentucky. It was "just" 1.191 during the entire season. But how do they do it? They are not a particularly great three-point shooting team, ranking just 79th at 36.5% on the season. Their effective field goal percentage (which takes all shots, including free throws into account) is 16th. Duke is better in these categories, coming in at 4th in 2-pt FG% (56.1%), 28th in the country in 3-pt FG% (38.7%), and 4th in effective FG% (56.8%). One way to increase efficiency is to get offensive rebounds, which keeps possessions alive. Here again, Wisconsin is not that great, coming in at 118th with a 30.6% offensive rebounding rate (getting 30.6% of all available offensive rebounds). Duke is better here, too, checking in at 26th at 34.8%.

So how is their offensive so much better than Duke's despite note being better at shooting the ball? They don't turn the ball over. Ever. Their turnover rate is just 12.2% on the season, which is best in the nation. Their assist-to-turnover ratio as a team is 1.687, 3rd in the country (Duke is no slouch, coming in at 1.399, good for 10th). Another major advantage is their size up front. National Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky is 7'0", Nigel Hayes is 6'8" (maybe a little shorter) with very long arms, and Sam Dekker is 6'9". Among their main 7 players (yes, they only really play 7 guys), Duje Dukan is 6'9" tall. They have a decided height advantage up front. But they don't just pound it down low. Each of their tall players can shoot it from range. Dekker and Kaminsky are very skilled at putting the ball on the floor and driving to the hoop. Hayes and Dukan can as well, but are less skilled at it.

Wisconsin's strength on defense is rebounding. They are tall up front and get a lot of defensive rebounds. In fact, they are 3rd in the country at this (78.5%). But they don't really stand out in any other category. They don't block shots or force steals at particularly high rates. They basically just make it hard to score by being tall and playing solid.

While Duke is going to be challenged to stop Kaminsky, Dekker, Hayes, and Dujan up front, the Blue Devils have a decided advantage in the backcourt. The three Badger guards - seniors John Gasser and Traevon Jackson and sophomore Bronson Koenig - are all good but none are great. And Duke has shut down some of the great guards this year and especially in the tournament. Jackson went for 27 points (and before an injury would make him miss about half the season) in the December game. Since then, the Duke backcourt has severely limited Delon Wright of Utah, Kevin Pangos of Gonzaga, and most recently Travis Trice of Michigan State (Trice had a decent game, to be fair, and did get a little banged up). Most would agree that those guys are all of a higher caliber than the Wisconsin three. Between Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, Matt Jones, and Grayson Allen, Duke has four guys that play good-to-great defense (what an exciting development during the tournament!), can drive to the basket, and can shoot the ball. Each has shined at various points during the tournament.

So here are the keys to the game, in my opinion: (1) Duke's guards are going to have to play significantly better than Wisconsin's guards; (2) Duke is going to have to make it hard for the Wisconsin bigs to get good looks at the basket, forcing them into jump shooters; and (3) Duke will have to keep some possessions alive through offensive rebounding while generating easy buckets by forcing turnovers. These will not be easy. Duke was able to confuse Wisconsin in the December game by switching on all screens, sometimes leaving Tyus Jones on Frank Kaminsky. Will that work again or will the Badgers recognize the mis-matches and exploit? Wisconsin rebounds very well on the defensive end and doesn't turn the ball over, so point 3 above will not be easy, either.

In the first game, Duke only got 3 offensive rebounds and forced 8 Wisconsin turnovers. We shot 65% for the game, including 58% from 3. I just can't imagine Duke shooting that well again, although it would be great to see it happen (Dunleavy for 3!!!). Getting on the offensive boards and forcing turnovers can mitigate a dropoff in shooting. It won't be easy and Duke isn't favored. But we weren't favored in the first matchup, either. It's going to be a hell of an intense game. I sure hope to celebrate on Monday night. Let's Go Duke!!!

Bob Green
04-05-2015, 11:18 AM
On the offensive end, Marshall can make Kaminsky work or give up easy baskets (Marshall is a force from three feet and closer).

Plumlee cannot score. It is not that he just doesn't score, unless the stars and the moon align perfectly, he doesn't have the ability to score against quality competition. He caught the ball right at the basket last night, but instead of going up strong he ducked low resulting in the MSU player fouling him. An easy two points, but we only scored one because Plumlee wasn't "a force from three feet and closer."

I've voiced hard criticism against Plumlee all season and will be the first to admit he has improved tremendously on the defensive end of the court, and he is great at running the court, but calling him a "force" on offense, regardless the "three feet and closer" caveat is a huge overstatement. On offense, he is an extremely limited ball player.

Bob Green
04-05-2015, 11:25 AM
doubtful. though i loved seeing plumlee on the wing of a 2-3 zone last night, we only really went there because of the 2 fouls on winslow.

We didn't see it against a big utah team, and I'm skeptical we'll see it against wiscy unless a similar situation arises.

You're probably correct. Our zone is tough with Okafor and Plumlee playing at the same time, but I'd rather not see Winslow in foul trouble.

rsvman
04-05-2015, 11:26 AM
We won the first game by hitting at a tremendous clip from outside. We haven't even shown glimpses of that in quite some time, although individual players have had good nights shooting the 3 (Matt against Gonzaga, Winslow through the whole tournament but with fewer attempts). I don't think we can rely on that for this game, and it seems we haven't really been trying to do that during this tournament (which I think is mostly a good thing).

I fear that the outcome of the game will rest on officiating, in a way. I think that if either Okafor or Winslow gets into foul trouble early, we will be in big trouble. On the flip side, if Kaminsky were to pick up a couple of fouls in the first 10 or 12 minutes of the game, I think that will tilt the battle in our favor.

Okafor needs to be really careful backing down Kaminsky. Last night we saw how Kaminsky can turn that situation into a charge call on the offensive player. Okafor CANNOT afford to pick up an offensive foul, especially in the first half.



As far as the switching D is concerned, I think it's doomed before it even starts, and I suspect K knows that, too. I say that based on the fact that Kentucky tried that a bit last night, and Wisconsin exploited it nearly EVERY time. There was a lot of Booker on Kaminsky or Booker on Dekker going on, and Bo saw it and used it. I think it's a no-go.


I hope they are watching film of the Big10 title game. Whatever Michigan State did to take Wisconsin to overtime we need to do. If that strategy was able to get Sparty into an overtime, it should be good enough to get US a victory.


I think we have a distinct advantage in the backcourt. I hope our guys will shoot well, make wise decisions about shot selection, and continue to defend the way we have been.


Finally, any game plan that counts on turning them over a lot in order to gain the victory is likely to fail. Although their guards LOOK like they could be turned over, they don't really turn the ball over that much. I think pushing tempo, even without turnovers, would be helpful for us. Maybe we could borrow a page from the UNC playbook and surprise them with a fastbreak or two off one of their made outside shots? Given the amount of tweaking I saw K do against Mich State yesterday (lineups we've never seen all year, long stretches of minutes for non-starters, unexpected defensive changes, etc) I suspect K has a few more surprises up his sleeve. Honestly, this year has been the best coaching job I've seen from Coach K since 2001, and that's saying a lot.

Let's do it!!

duke4ever19
04-05-2015, 11:31 AM
Of all the commentators on TBS and CBS (Barkely, Ernie Johnson, K. Smith, Miller, Seth Davis, Kellog) only Charles Barkely picked us to win on Monday Night. I don't know how I feel about that :confused:

Not that it matters, but it was mentioned that Wisconsin was celebrating as if they had won the whole thing. Hopefully the hangover is something fierce.

Bob Green
04-05-2015, 11:31 AM
I hope they are watching film of the Big10 title game. Whatever Michigan State did to take Wisconsin to overtime we need to do. If that strategy was able to get Sparty into an overtime, it should be good enough to get US a victory.

Great post! Especially the part quoted above. Izzo is a great coach who is familiar with the Badgers so we should feed off his successful (almost) game plan.

NSDukeFan
04-05-2015, 11:36 AM
Winslow can guard Dekker. I am more concerned with Kaminsky. He will test Okafor's willingness to defend all over the court.

Of course, you can ask the same question on the other end: who will guard Winslow? And can they guard Tyus Jones?
One of the tweaks coach K has used to help the team improve its defense has been keeping Okafor closer to the basket to protect the rim and not get exposed on the perimeter. This works against just about every team except the one Duke will be playing Monday night.

What a tremendous matchup this will be.

Both teams playing at an extremely high level right now.

Key to the game, IMO, will be containing role players. Dekker and Kaminsky will get theirs; Duke's stars will get theirs. Who will step up on both sides?

We're going to have to defend the perimeter well, and attack them in the lane. I'd like to see Okafor get Kaminsky in early foul trouble.

And for sheer fun, I'm excited to see Winslow v. Dekker.

Think we match up (much) better against Wisky than UK, but clearly we'd be in a dogfight either way.

Let's get it done, Devils. Almost home.
I don't know if we match up better against Wisconsin than UK as Wisconsin drags Okafor out of the paint on defense and Dekker is a nightmare matchup (kind of like Winslow.) Wisconsin is very fun to watch. They are even a bit better than Notre Dame offensively and a little more experience and poise down the stretch. In some ways they remind me of 2010 Duke with how well they finish. This Duke team also tends to finish well also.

Did I see a stat saying that Duke hadn't lost a game that they had led by double digits in the second half since 2007? That can't be right can it?

I am expecting an epic battle. I would have liked Duke to have beaten UK, but I am much happier to see Wisconsin in the final, not because I think they are an easier team for Duke to beat, but a more honorable team to face.

It's been a fabulous tournament. I am excited to see one more great game.

JohnGalt
04-05-2015, 11:39 AM
Anyone think the whistle-happy officiating of the Final Four will be moderated for Monday? In my circles there was an outpouring of criticism (going in all directions) at how quick the referees went to their whistles. No one likes to see players taken out of the game due to overaggressive officiating. Well, unless maybe it's Frank. ;)

Henderson
04-05-2015, 11:42 AM
A 9:18 EDT tipoff. I don't know how you guys on the east coast do it. I'd have to install little LCD screens behind my eyelids to see the whole game.

6:18 PDT is late enough for me, but at least I can still get in a pre-game meal with the senior discount right before the game and still make my date in dreamland with Penelope Cruz before midnight.

NSDukeFan
04-05-2015, 11:45 AM
A 9:18 EDT tipoff. I don't know how you guys on the east coast do it. I'd have to install little LCD screens behind my eyelids to see the whole game.

6:18 PDT is late enough for me, but at least I can still get in a pre-game meal with the senior discount right before the game and still make my date in dreamland with Penelope Cruz before midnight.

It may be way past my bedtime, but I can catch up on sleep the next night.

Bob Green
04-05-2015, 11:46 AM
A 9:18 EDT tipoff. I don't know how you guys on the east coast do it.

When I arrive home from work tomorrow, I will head straight to bed in an attempt to log several hours sleep before the game starts. Prime time sports starting at a decent time is the #1 thing I miss about living on the West Coast.

hurleyfor3
04-05-2015, 11:49 AM
Anyone think the whistle-happy officiating of the Final Four will be moderated for Monday?

Yeah, both games were called on the tight side, but were consistent. Kentucky almost got into the bonus!

NM Duke Fan
04-05-2015, 12:08 PM
I stated several games ago that when Duke plays defense like they were playing, I liked their chances against anybody in the country. And their defense has only gotten better through the NCAA's. Okafor especially has improved compared to where he was; the team communicates better in general and they are no longer having to think so much on D, the instincts are more in place.

Duke's guards are a bit quicker and that eliminates what has often been an achille's for this team. The overall advantage in the backcourt is in Duke's favor.

Winslow is a major challenge to guard for any opposition.

I really respect and appreciate this Wisconsin team, and they are on a roll. But due to the above factors I like Duke by about 5 points.

CharlestonDave
04-05-2015, 12:20 PM
In this game you have a one and done stars team with many McDonald All Americans against a team with no McDonald All Americans and a team that brings along its players just like the 90s.

If it weren't for the fact that Duke was playing I would be rooting for the latter , but of course that will not happen on Monday night.

Duke95
04-05-2015, 12:23 PM
In this game you have a one and done stars team with many McDonald All Americans against a team with no McDonald All Americans and a team that brings along its players just like the 90s.

If it weren't for the fact that Duke was playing I would be rooting for the latter , but of course that will not happen on Monday night.

Yep, if it were anyone else but Duke or one of the Duke coaching tree schools, I'd be pulling for Wisconsin as well.

Henderson
04-05-2015, 12:26 PM
Winslow is a major challenge to guard for any opposition.


I continue to believe this has been a key for Duke's tourney run and will be a key against Bucky.

It's just so hard to game plan around Winslow, given the other talent on the team. Duke has an excellent inside-outside game. That's tough enough, but coaches face that problem in a lot of games against top talent.

But when you overlay that with what Justise brings, I don't know how a team game plans that.

I've made that point before, and the response was, "Well, you put a good defender on him." That seems both facile and demonstrably ineffective. I'm sure each of the five teams Duke has faced so far in the tourney had that in mind, and it hasn't worked. I'm sure that was Sparty's strategy, then he dropped 19 on them.

Here are Justise's stats in the tourney, when opposing coaches knew they had to put a good defender on him:

15 ppg.
9.4 rebounds per game
3 assists per game
58% from 3.

I just don't know how an opposing coach game plans for that, when they have to worry about Okafor down, Duke's guards from outside, and the ability of all those non-Winslow players to slash to the hoop.

Winslow just seems like the uncontrollable X factor right now. And he didn't even contribute much in the first Duke-Wisc. meeting.

SoCalDukeFan
04-05-2015, 12:32 PM
In 1991 an underdog team won a national semi-final game against an unbeaten and "unbeatable" team, then the underdog went on the win the NC. Will Wisconsin repeat Duke's feat.

In 2010 a strong KY team lost before they had to play Duke. Duke played in the NC game against a team that had the whole country rooting for them, and a team that I would be rooting for against anyone other than Duke (or maybe a coaching tree team). Will Duke repeat.

Can not wait for Monday night.

SoCal

CameronBlue
04-05-2015, 12:32 PM
In this game you have a one and done stars team with many McDonald All Americans against a team with no McDonald All Americans and a team that brings along its players just like the 90s.

If it weren't for the fact that Duke was playing I would be rooting for the latter , but of course that will not happen on Monday night.

Duke has at most 2 OAD stars. It may help to remember that this team wouldn't be sniffing the FF without the contributions of a seasoned veteran at shooting guard who epitomizes the term "senior leadership" and a 6th man Junior who has never failed to do what is best for the team.

Bob Green
04-05-2015, 12:41 PM
Duke has at most 2 OAD stars.

Are you saying Tyus Jones isn't OAD? Or, are you saying Tyus Jones isn't a star?

Henderson
04-05-2015, 12:51 PM
Duke has at most 2 OAD stars.

And what does "at most" mean? Okafor and Winslow are lottery locks, perhaps both in the top 5.

Duke has at least 2 OAD stars. Both likely to go, but if either decides not to go (dreamland), that won't diminish their OAD star status in terms of quality of player.

Utley
04-05-2015, 01:03 PM
I'll repeat a comment I made upthread (post #36). Yes, K did surprise Wisconsin back then, by switching everything, so that sometimes one of our guards was on Kaminsky. I'm skeptical that this would be a good strategy on Monday, because Bo can prepare for it, and more important because his 3 main bigs (Kaminsky, Hayes, Dekker) are so much more effective now. My guess, and thus fear, is that Wisconsin is now much more capable of exploiting height/strength mismatches than is our switch-everything defense capable of puzzling them.

Our defense has been remarkably good in the tourney. If K employs the switch-everything defense, I'll assume he'll have a Plan B if it isn't working this time.

Thanks for refreshing my memory on the D we employed and sorry for missing your reference to this earlier,

The point I was trying to make - and did poorly - was how good a job K had
S done finding something to disrupt opposing offenses. He actually has done a great job mixing up those strategies - such as the front court press he employed several times during the season.

Given how good Wiscy is on O - I am wondering if we see him reach into his bag of tricks and throw some wrinkle (old or new) at them to try and disrupt their flow

CameronBlue
04-05-2015, 01:06 PM
Are you saying Tyus Jones isn't OAD? Or, are you saying Tyus Jones isn't a star?

Jones is not a lottery pick, he shows up as a late 1st round-early 2nd round pick..or not all in draft projections and is not befitting the OAD label IMO which the OP used pejoratively (by comparison). Whether I (and the poster to whom I was responding) think he's a "star" (which I do) is immaterial.

Wander
04-05-2015, 01:24 PM
I think that's weird. Justise has been the best player thus far in the tournament. I don't see how you can reasonably pick against him for any matchup at this point.

Have you watched all of Wisconsin's tournament games? Dekker is basically tied with Winslow for the tournament's best player so far. The matchup could easily go either way.

The frontcourt matchups feature the two best players from the regular season and the two best players in the tournament. Awesome.

CR9
04-05-2015, 01:29 PM
56, 49, 57, 52, 61

This is still so incredible to me. (Kenpom) #176, #27, #8, #7, and #15. Holding that group to 55 PPG is unreal.

Henderson
04-05-2015, 01:33 PM
Duke has at most 2 OAD stars. It may help to remember that this team wouldn't be sniffing the FF without the contributions of a seasoned veteran at shooting guard who epitomizes the term "senior leadership" and a 6th man Junior who has never failed to do what is best for the team.


Jones is not a lottery pick, he shows up as a late 1st round-early 2nd round pick..or not all in draft projections and is not befitting the OAD label IMO which the OP used pejoratively (by comparison). Whether I (and the poster to whom I was responding) think he's a "star" (which I do) is immaterial.

But surely you agree that Duke doesn't have "at most 2 OAD stars." Duke has at least 2. You're just arguing about the third. N'est pas?

And that third guy (to bring this back to the thread) is a pretty darn good college basketball point guard. All three of them will suit up against Wisky.

budwom
04-05-2015, 01:45 PM
Agree. I think we can pressure these guys. Yes, their big guys handle the ball well, but I think we can pressure and trap their guards, turn them over, or at least make them start their offense from way out. Quinn Cook has become a very effective defender; Matt Jones and Justise are very good, and now Grayson Allen has become part of the pressure defense.

I agree about making them start their offense farther out than they would want. It was interesting in the post game press conference that one of the MSU guards said the major reason
they lost was "we started our offense too far out." While he didn't elaborate, I think we can conclude that they didn't choose to start way out, simply that Duke pushed them far out.

Bob Green
04-05-2015, 01:59 PM
Jones is not a lottery pick, he shows up as a late 1st round-early 2nd round pick..or not all in draft projections and is not befitting the OAD label IMO which the OP used pejoratively (by comparison). Whether I (and the poster to whom I was responding) think he's a "star" (which I do) is immaterial.

Thank you for the clarification as I was unsure what you were saying. I believe there is a decent chance Tyus Jones returns to Duke for another season.

Neals384
04-05-2015, 02:03 PM
This K guy seems to know a little bit about basketball. I predict a great future for him.


As to the upcoming game, I'm looking forward to it. I think Wisconsin will be favored and I'm picking Duke to win (I'm a bit biased).

In Wisconsin's favor:
Playing great team basketball
Big.
Versatile.
Experienced.
One game away from history.

In Duke's favor:
Playing great team basketball.
Defense (Who'd a thunk it.)
More rested.
Wisc. coming of their game of the year.
One game away from history.

It should be a great game.

Everyone sees the teams as very closely matched on the court. The game may well be decided by intangible factors - let's look at the keys to the game:

School song - Wisconsin
Cheerleaders - Duke
Mascot - Duke
Uniforms - Duke (Wiscy doesn't even have players names on them, for heaven's sake)
Swagger - Duke (Justise!)
Cool Factor - Duke (Tyus all by himself is cooler than the entire Badger team)
Bench cheering - Duke
Player's Families - Duke
Fan Website - Duke

Intagibles prediction: At 1 point per intangible, Duke wins the game by 7.

MChambers
04-05-2015, 02:28 PM
I agree about making them start their offense farther out than they would want. It was interesting in the post game press conference that one of the MSU guards said the major reason
they lost was "we started our offense too far out." While he didn't elaborate, I think we can conclude that they didn't choose to start way out, simply that Duke pushed them far out.
Kind of reminds me of Duhon on the Arizona PG (Gardner?) in 2001. Will be interesting to see if Duke does this against Wisconsin. It's hard to protect both the lane and the three point shooters. MSU usually had at least two players on the floor who could not shoot the three. Wisconsin has a boatload of shooters.

Duke95
04-05-2015, 03:08 PM
Goodman at the ESPN says Wisconsin was laid back and joking around while Duke was all business during their respective press conferences today.

ns7
04-05-2015, 03:11 PM
Jones is not a lottery pick, he shows up as a late 1st round-early 2nd round pick..or not all in draft projections and is not befitting the OAD label IMO which the OP used pejoratively (by comparison). Whether I (and the poster to whom I was responding) think he's a "star" (which I do) is immaterial.

Tyus is current projected between 15 and 25. Not lottery but certainly high enough for him to consider declaring for the draft. I'm not certain how this year's PG class compares to next year's class--that's usually a significant factor to consider when you're out of the lottery but still in the first round.

Native
04-05-2015, 03:12 PM
Everyone sees the teams as very closely matched on the court. The game may well be decided by intangible factors - let's look at the keys to the game:

School song - Wisconsin
Cheerleaders - Duke
Mascot - Duke
Uniforms - Duke (Wiscy doesn't even have players names on them, for heaven's sake)
Swagger - Duke (Justise!)
Cool Factor - Duke (Tyus all by himself is cooler than the entire Badger team)
Bench cheering - Duke
Player's Families - Duke
Fan Website - Duke

Intagibles prediction: At 1 point per intangible, Duke wins the game by 7.

I'm about to give Bucky a war they won't believe.

Going to be a battle.

#1Duke
04-05-2015, 03:18 PM
So we play man to man or zone?

brevity
04-05-2015, 03:19 PM
So we play man to man or zone?

Yes, that's right.

#1Duke
04-05-2015, 03:25 PM
Yes, that's right.

Seriously, I don't know how effective we can be in a man to man defense against Wisconsin considering how versatile their big men are.

I'm thinking zone.

dukebluelemur
04-05-2015, 03:28 PM
Goodman at the ESPN says Wisconsin was laid back and joking around while Duke was all business during their respective press conferences today.

In fairness, the Badgers have been laid back and joking the entire tourney, and it hasn't hurt them so far.

ns7
04-05-2015, 03:29 PM
Seriously, I don't know how effective we can be in a man to man defense against Wisconsin considering how versatile their big men are.

I'm thinking zone.

Zone also poses issues because they'll shoot over the zone and then get ORs when they miss.

#1Duke
04-05-2015, 03:39 PM
Zone also poses issues because they'll shoot over the zone and then get ORs when they miss.

Yes, thought of that. I just can't see Oakafor or Plumlee out on the 3 point line defending.

jipops
04-05-2015, 03:39 PM
Bucky has gone through a very difficult path to get here, victories over unc, AZ, UK and now they have us. That is amazing. I really do think they are the better team with their combination of talent and experience. And I think Dekker has been the best player in the tournament so far. But hey, all it takes is one game.

dukelifer
04-05-2015, 03:54 PM
Bucky has gone through a very difficult path to get here, victories over unc, AZ, UK and now they have us. That is amazing. I really do think they are the better team with their combination of talent and experience. And I think Dekker has been the best player in the tournament so far. But hey, all it takes is one game.

They are good no question. They have been on a mission. I have been impressed by how hard they play. Anything can happen but Duke has a good chance to win. All you want is the opportunity. Duke has that. Just need to match the intensity and wait for Wisconsin to wear down as their game against KY took a lot of energy.

gurufrisbee
04-05-2015, 04:17 PM
In the 'something totally common and unshocking to anyone who pays attention' department: Seth Davis is picking against Duke.

SoCalDukeFan
04-05-2015, 04:32 PM
He picked Michigan State yesterday.

SoCal

Duke95
04-05-2015, 04:49 PM
In fairness, the Badgers have been laid back and joking the entire tourney, and it hasn't hurt them so far.

Yep, I was actually thinking the opposite, that it would help them.

NashvilleDevil
04-05-2015, 04:57 PM
Goodman at the ESPN says Wisconsin was laid back and joking around while Duke was all business during their respective press conferences today.

That's certainly a game changer.

Duke31122
04-05-2015, 05:06 PM
All this talk about Wisconsin, and how tough they are, or how tough their road has been. Whatever happened to believing in what we do, and our guys? No doubt Wisconsin is a great team, but so are we. I am not afraid one bit, actually I am excited, because I would not want anyone else besides the 8 guys we have and K.

Some of the talk on this thread, is really short changing our guys, their abilities, and what they have accomplished themselves. Name one challenge this year where it's team did not step up and answer the call. Sure we lost four games, but when everyone wrote us off after the dismissal of Rasheed saying we didn't have the depth, we went and handed Virginia their only home loss with a healthy Justin Anderson. Or what about when we needed a big win coming off the back to back losses and everything seemed bleak, they went and crushed Louisville in their own gym. One thing I guarantee Wisconsin does not have that we do is as strong a team bond as any in the country. I fully expect a war tomorrow, but I expect our guys to come out with great intensity. This is what they have been wanting all year long a chance to get Quinn a banner, and hang up #5.

I love our business like approach, because these guys are ready to go to war with one another. They want to be in that fox hole together, and I'd take that over any coach or player in the country. Our team is battle tested, and the staff will have them ready.

No doubt we and Wisconsin are two different teams than we were in December. We beat them once, and we can do it again. I trust Jah to guard Kaminsky on the perimeter and switch with Justice at times on him. He did it some when we played before, and he actually outmuscled Kaminsky as well. We can pressure these guys and take them out of their game. Remember we have faced great offensive teams during this tournament in Utah and Gonzaga. I truly believe in our team, and I am ready for tomorrow night at 8:15 my time. They may have the shooters, but we have the athletes and the greatest coach of all time. Forget what BPI and any analyst says. The only thing I care about is how the guys in that locker room, and our coaching staff feel. If they believe we can win, then that's all I need.

DukeDevil
04-05-2015, 06:28 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrurx57Jlsk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrurx57Jlsk


...what? I'm the only one that watches old "one shining moment" videos to get pumped?

Tripping William
04-05-2015, 07:34 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrurx57Jlsk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrurx57Jlsk


...what? I'm the only one that watches old "one shining moment" videos to get pumped?

I, for one, can assure you that you are not alone.

Olympic Fan
04-05-2015, 07:34 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrurx57Jlsk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrurx57Jlsk


...what? I'm the only one that watches old "one shining moment" videos to get pumped?

I LOVE this ... yes, it does get me pumped up.

It also reminds me of how CBS has screwed up One Shining Moment in recent years (the one pasted above wa done by Duke, I think).

Try these:

1992 (bad sound and fast-forward through the credit to the 2:29 mark):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOeMSn7JCaU

This one's better -- 2001:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyTMgqd6iuo

I can't find the 1991 One Shining Moment -- it's available on iTunes, but you have to pay for it.

dukelifer
04-05-2015, 08:43 PM
I LOVE this ... yes, it does get me pumped up.

It also reminds me of how CBS has screwed up One Shining Moment in recent years (the one pasted above wa done by Duke, I think).

Try these:

1992 (bad sound and fast-forward through the credit to the 2:29 mark):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOeMSn7JCaU

This one's better -- 2001:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyTMgqd6iuo

I can't find the 1991 One Shining Moment -- it's available on iTunes, but you have to pay for it.
Here is a version

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WYUhvb2beiI

fuse
04-05-2015, 08:48 PM
Read a pretty neat article today (ESPN?) about Wisconsin players and press conferences.

The secret behind the silliness is a game the Wisconsin players are playing.
When they see someone that looks like a famous person or someone they know, they point it out to each other.

That's what the giggling and comments behind shirts or hands is about.

Pretty clever.

Rooting for our team to put the capstone on an already special season.

Let's Go Duke! Win one for Quinn!

Tripping William
04-05-2015, 09:03 PM
If it's any consolation, Mitt Romney is picking us. And he picked all of the Elite 8 correctly. And picked all of the Final Four correctly. And picked Duke/Bucky in the title game.

Mitt Romney's NCAA Bracket Is Ridiculously Good
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/05/mitt-romney-ncaa-bracket_n_7007908.html

arnie
04-05-2015, 09:06 PM
Read a pretty neat article today (ESPN?) about Wisconsin players and press conferences.

The secret behind the silliness is a game the Wisconsin players are playing.
When they see someone that looks like a famous person or someone they know, they point it out to each other.

That's what the giggling and comments behind shirts or hands is about.

Pretty clever.

Rooting for our team to put the capstone on an already special season.

Let's Go Duke! Win one for Quinn!

We're doomed. 3 of 4 on Espn picked Wisconsin with Battier picking us by 2. Think Calhoun and Dakich don't believe it will be close. Well it was a great year anyway.

dukelifer
04-05-2015, 09:09 PM
We're doomed. 3 of 4 on Espn picked Wisconsin with Battier picking us by 2. Think Calhoun and Dakich don't believe it will be close. Well it was a great year anyway.

Duke vs Wisconsin replay on ESPNU

phaedrus
04-05-2015, 09:14 PM
I'll repeat a comment I made upthread (post #36). Yes, K did surprise Wisconsin back then, by switching everything, so that sometimes one of our guards was on Kaminsky. I'm skeptical that this would be a good strategy on Monday, because Bo can prepare for it, and more important because his 3 main bigs (Kaminsky, Hayes, Dekker) are so much more effective now. My guess, and thus fear, is that Wisconsin is now much more capable of exploiting height/strength mismatches than is our switch-everything defense capable of puzzling them.



Not to mention that Kentucky switched quite a bit and ended up getting burned when Dekker/Kaminsky gained a size mismatch. Though it was particularly troublesome for Kentucky because it took Cauley-Stein, the likely NDPOY, off Kaminsky, but left him out on the perimeter on a guard. Duke's defense isn't dependent on a single great defender.

DukeDevil
04-05-2015, 09:16 PM
Here is a version

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WYUhvb2beiI

*sniff* when this this dust storm kick up?

NashvilleDevil
04-05-2015, 09:30 PM
We're doomed. 3 of 4 on Espn picked Wisconsin with Battier picking us by 2. Think Calhoun and Dakich don't believe it will be close. Well it was a great year anyway.

And last night with all but Barkley at CBS picking Wisconsin it means the game does not need to be played. Obviously Wisconsin is the only team that has improved since December.

Duke31122
04-05-2015, 10:02 PM
And last night with all but Barkley at CBS picking Wisconsin it means the game does not need to be played. Obviously Wisconsin is the only team that has improved since December.

It's ridiculous, no credit was given to our guys at all. Forget we are playing our best basketball of the season, or have 3 potential first round picks. Let's not forget the best coach of all time.

Don't get me wrong, Wisconsin beat a great Kentucky team. That however was the game they have wanted since last year. Think of the stage and the emotion that went into that game for them. I have faith our guys will compete and win tomorrow. We have gotten so much better since December 3rd. The rest of the nation will find that out tomorrow.

JNort
04-05-2015, 10:14 PM
Not gonna read the whole thread cause I got one thing and one thing only to say. I have been confident all year long we would not just be here but take home our 5th NC no matter who we played. Well we made it and my opinion still hasn't changed. We win going away, screw the weafaux gods

InSpades
04-05-2015, 11:03 PM
Why does KenPom think Wisconsin's offense is so much better than our offense? I tried to run the numbers myself and I got the following:
Wisconsin - 121.7 points per 100 possessions
Duke - 119.9 points per 100 possessions

for a difference of 1.8 points per 100 possessions. (or about 1 point per game)

Now he adjusts for the strength of the opponents and we have faced slightly better offensive teams and they have faced slightly better defensive teams but that can't really amount to much of a difference (the #s are extremely close).

On the adjusted #s they are 6.8 points per possession better which is HUGE.

Maybe the difference is that I'm looking at totals and he is looking at average per game? So that Wisconsin must do better in low possession games (which are weighted relatively more if you take average of games instead of looking at raw per possession). Or Duke does worse in games that are lower possession?

Interestingly the only area where Wisconsin is actually better than Duke is at limiting their turnovers. Well that and free throw shooting. Duke shoots a better percentage from 2 and 3. Duke gets more offensive boards. Duke gets to the line more. Turnovers could be big.

I'm confident going into this game. I don't think Wisconsin's offense is better than Duke's offense and Duke is playing amazing on the defensive end. I hope Duke can make someone other than Kaminsky and Dekker beat them. Duke has a big edge in the backcourt and I hope we take advantage of that.

fan345678
04-05-2015, 11:18 PM
It's ridiculous, no credit was given to our guys at all. Forget we are playing our best basketball of the season, or have 3 potential first round picks. Let's not forget the best coach of all time.

Don't get me wrong, Wisconsin beat a great Kentucky team. That however was the game they have wanted since last year. Think of the stage and the emotion that went into that game for them. I have faith our guys will compete and win tomorrow. We have gotten so much better since December 3rd. The rest of the nation will find that out tomorrow.

At this point in the season, we really have to question immediate reactions of analysts (obviously) and even some of the advanced metrics. They're fine over the course of the season, but daily fluctuations should present little concern.

Wisconsin is the same team today as they were at approximately 8:49 PM yesterday, but it seems like analysts and computers believe that by eating Kentucky's heart, they also added UK's strength to their own.

If it were simply a case of eating your opponents' hearts, I'd rather add Michigan State's than Kentucky's.

pfrduke
04-05-2015, 11:21 PM
Why does KenPom think Wisconsin's offense is so much better than our offense? I tried to run the numbers myself and I got the following:
Wisconsin - 121.7 points per 100 possessions
Duke - 119.9 points per 100 possessions

for a difference of 1.8 points per 100 possessions. (or about 1 point per game)

Now he adjusts for the strength of the opponents and we have faced slightly better offensive teams and they have faced slightly better defensive teams but that can't really amount to much of a difference (the #s are extremely close).

On the adjusted #s they are 6.8 points per possession better which is HUGE.

Maybe the difference is that I'm looking at totals and he is looking at average per game? So that Wisconsin must do better in low possession games (which are weighted relatively more if you take average of games instead of looking at raw per possession). Or Duke does worse in games that are lower possession?

Interestingly the only area where Wisconsin is actually better than Duke is at limiting their turnovers. Well that and free throw shooting. Duke shoots a better percentage from 2 and 3. Duke gets more offensive boards. Duke gets to the line more. Turnovers could be big.

I'm confident going into this game. I don't think Wisconsin's offense is better than Duke's offense and Duke is playing amazing on the defensive end. I hope Duke can make someone other than Kaminsky and Dekker beat them. Duke has a big edge in the backcourt and I hope we take advantage of that.

Pomeroy's adjustment skews for more recent performances, so if Wisconsin has been executing at a particularly high level against particularly good opponents (which they have) their adjusted will appear stronger.

moonpie23
04-05-2015, 11:39 PM
i watched some of 82-50 today......many similarities to 2010 team..


i like our chances...

gcashwell
04-05-2015, 11:47 PM
I get really nervous before big games. A lot of times I can't eat dinner on a game night. I already am feeling nauseous. I bet I can't eat at all tomorrow until the game is over. The thing we suffer through for our teams.

I feel like Quinn and Matt jones will be the most important. Okafor/kaminsky and Winslow/dekker may cancel each other out. I feel this could come down to role players.

dukelion
04-05-2015, 11:56 PM
One thing that's starting to bother me in this pre-game analysis period is how Wisconsin's defense is getting a relative pass as they currently rank 55th in KenPom.

I feel like they'll guard us much like Mich St. did and choose not to double Jah so they can stick to the shooters. I also feel like Winslow, Jones, Cook and Grayson will be driving at will to the lane all game....much like the Mich St. game.

I like our chances if this ends up being the case.

uh_no
04-05-2015, 11:58 PM
wiscy's adjusted efficiency over the last 10 games

123.6
120.9
132.0
134.5
125.2
136.6
118.9
132.2
131.8
123.3

Look at those numbers...LOOK AT THEM! they're absurd! 6 games over 130, 9 over 120, and the last one, a smidge below.

Duke's:
109.2
135.4
123.0
140.8
97.3
134.3
112.2
98.8
111.6
119.0

But our second BEST offensive performance in the tourney is effectively equivalent to wisconsin's WORST performance.

Aside from that, we've had a couple stinkers in there against utah and ND, and wiscy has had no stinkers since maryland. on February 24. 7 weeks ago.

That's why wiscy is so much ahead of us on offense. because frankly, their offense has been abusrd.

InSpades
04-06-2015, 12:06 AM
Pomeroy's adjustment skews for more recent performances, so if Wisconsin has been executing at a particularly high level against particularly good opponents (which they have) their adjusted will appear stronger.

I was just basing things off this: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_glossary

It makes no mention of weighting recent games more...

Though this does:
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/pomeroy_ratings_version_2.0

although it doesn't explain it at all. He also mentions adjusting for games which are expected to be blowouts (and are blowouts).

Maybe that plays a bit of an impact... I still wouldn't think it would make up for like 6 points per possession. I don't have access to the pre-tournament numbers but I imagine the difference between our offense and their offense hasn't changed much.

My point remains I think... their offense is great but I don't think it's much better than our offense.

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 12:15 AM
wiscy's adjusted efficiency over the last 10 games

123.6
120.9
132.0
134.5
125.2
136.6
118.9
132.2
131.8
123.3

Look at those numbers...LOOK AT THEM! they're absurd! 6 games over 130, 9 over 120, and the last one, a smidge below.

Duke's:
109.2
135.4
123.0
140.8
97.3
134.3
112.2
98.8
111.6
119.0

But our second BEST offensive performance in the tourney is effectively equivalent to wisconsin's WORST performance.

Aside from that, we've had a couple stinkers in there against utah and ND, and wiscy has had no stinkers since maryland. on February 24. 7 weeks ago.

That's why wiscy is so much ahead of us on offense. because frankly, their offense has been abusrd.

So the thought is even though they're the 55th ranked defense by Pomery this offense can overcome that?

Kedsy
04-06-2015, 12:23 AM
I don't have access to the pre-tournament numbers but I imagine the difference between our offense and their offense hasn't changed much.

Pre-tournament, adjusted OffEff:

Wisconsin: 124.7
Duke: 122.0

So only 2.7 points different then, vs. 6.8 different now, meaning it has changed quite a bit during NCAAT play.

Kedsy
04-06-2015, 12:26 AM
So the thought is even though they're the 55th ranked defense by Pomery this offense can overcome that?

Well, Pomeroy's system thinks their offense is 6.8 points better than ours and our defense is 3.6 points better than theirs. If the system is accurate, and you expect both teams to play exactly as they have in the past, then Wisconsin should be favored.

InSpades
04-06-2015, 12:42 AM
Pre-tournament, adjusted OffEff:

Wisconsin: 124.7
Duke: 122.0

So only 2.7 points different then, vs. 6.8 different now, meaning it has changed quite a bit during NCAAT play.

That's interesting. Thanks for the info everyone!

I know their offense is great. That was never in question.

The point still remains that when you're not doing KenPom's adjusting and averaging... they are about 1.8 points per 100 better offensively than Duke.

Their offense is hot, our defense is hot. Should be a great game.

One other thing to point out on their offense... they take a lot more 3s than we do. They are shooting 3s on 33.0% of their possessions. We only shoot 3s on 28.6%. Even adjusting for our higher turnovers they use a higher percentage of their chances on 3s. Hopefully we can put a hand up and challenge those 3s.

Kedsy
04-06-2015, 01:25 AM
I believe foul trouble will play a major role in this game. I just don't know who or which team.

Also, in almost all our big games this season, Coach K has tried something on defense that has surprised our opponent. In the first Wisconsin game, as others have mentioned, it was switching on every screen. I don't think we'll do that this time, because it won't be a surprise, among other reasons, but I do feel that Coach K will unveil something surprising in an effort to keep Wisconsin off balance. Can't wait to see what it is.


Marshall has the ability to guard Kaminsky away from the basket and is big enough (and strong enough) to muscle him if Kaminsky tries his pump fake and drive to the rim.

If Karl Towns couldn't handle Kaminsky (and he couldn't), then I'm dubious that Marshall will be capable of defending Kaminsky nearly as well as you suggest.


Seriously, I don't know how effective we can be in a man to man defense against Wisconsin considering how versatile their big men are.

I'm thinking zone.

Wisconsin's seven-man rotation includes six guys who each have attempted more than 2.25 threes per game, and a seventh who attempted 1.9 threes per game. Four of those guys shoot better than 38% from threeland. So I think a standard 2-3 zone would be difficult to play successfully. Possibly a 3-2 zone might work, but I'm not confident we're proficient enough at a defense we've hardly played. Hopefully Coach K will come up with some defensive wrinkle that will allow us to pay attention to the three-point line without dulling the overall sharpness we've displayed defensively over the past few weeks.

Interestingly enough, the one guy on their team who shoots the fewest threes and has the worst three-point percentage (Jackson) is the guy who lit Duke up in the first matchup. His five three-point attempts and three three-point makes were both season highs for him, as was his 25 total points against us.

subzero02
04-06-2015, 01:38 AM
Jackson had a solid game against Kentucky, especially in driving the ball. We have a significant advantage in the speed of our backcourt. I will look for us to really push the ball with Winslow, Cook and Tyus. I also expect to see our press with Amile Jefferson playing a significant role.

KandG
04-06-2015, 01:46 AM
One other thing to point out on their offense... they take a lot more 3s than we do. They are shooting 3s on 33.0% of their possessions. We only shoot 3s on 28.6%. Even adjusting for our higher turnovers they use a higher percentage of their chances on 3s. Hopefully we can put a hand up and challenge those 3s.

What worries me most is Wisconsin's bigger players shooting and making 3s. Our defense has been elite lately, but I do worry about the ability of our bigs to close out on their outside shooting forwards and/or our smaller wings and guards getting caught in switches and not being able to contest adequately.

Wisconsin's frontcourt players have shot 41% on 3 pointers over the last 7 games (43% if you throw out the UNC game, where they shot 2 for 10 -- guessing UNC's length and good 3pt defense helped). It will be an interesting test of Duke's 3 point defense, which has been outstanding since the last regular season game at UNC: Duke has allowed opponents to shoot only 27 percent from 3 over the last 7 games, and only Michigan State cracked 30 percent among those opponents.

One interesting quirk in Wisconsin's numbers among recent opponents: in contrast to Duke, they've allowed a whopping 48 percent shooting on 3 pointers over the last 8 games. Wisconsin has not defended the 3 point line well all season (37.6% for the year, 309th in the country). But the caveat there is that Wisconsin's slow pace makes those mediocre defensive shooting percentages somewhat more bearable if they can limit the number of 3 pointers attempted.

And in fact, the last two games Wisconsin played vs Arizona and Kentucky, they only allowed 6 and 5 three point FG attempts respectively. I think Duke really has an opportunity to gain an advantage in Monday night's game if they can exploit the superiority of their backcourt to do better than Wisconsin's last 2 opponents and get more quality looks from three.

InSpades
04-06-2015, 01:51 AM
Wisconsin's seven-man rotation includes six guys who each have attempted more than 2.25 threes per game, and a seventh who attempted 1.9 threes per game. Four of those guys shoot better than 38% from threeland. So I think a standard 2-3 zone would be difficult to play successfully. Possibly a 3-2 zone might work, but I'm not confident we're proficient enough at a defense we've hardly played. Hopefully Coach K will come up with some defensive wrinkle that will allow us to pay attention to the three-point line without dulling the overall sharpness we've displayed defensively over the past few weeks.


While I do agree that they are a strong 3-point shooting team... they shoot only 36.5% from 3. They shoot 55% from 2. So on a per shot basis... they are actually more efficient from 2. I would imagine this actually underestimates how much better they are from 2 because they likely get to the line a lot more on 2s (and they are an excellent free throw shooting team). How much does going zone impact their 3-point efficiency? I don't know. But zone would likely cut down on our fouls which might have it's advantages in other ways.

I agree that we will likely play mostly man. I also agree and hope that K has something up his sleeve for just this occasion. I don't think zone would be the worst idea however. Switching our guards onto their bigs is a scary proposition. So is Okafor having to guard one of their big men outside (who just happen to be 3 of their 3-point shooters).

Of course you can maybe throw all the stats above out... Dekker is probably the biggest reason they shoot only 36.5% since he's a high volume 34.5% shooter who has looked nothing like a 34.5% shooter this tournament :(.

In K we trust. He'll figure something out.

g-money
04-06-2015, 02:31 AM
I believe foul trouble will play a major role in this game. I just don't know who or which team.

I echo this sentiment. My sense is that we will win as long as Okafor and Winslow do not have their minutes affected by foul trouble. For this reason, I hope that Coach K devises a scheme wherein Jah is not forced to guard Kaminsky extensively, since Kaminsky is a master at getting defenders to foul.


Also, in almost all our big games this season, Coach K has tried something on defense that has surprised our opponent. In the first Wisconsin game, as others have mentioned, it was switching on every screen. I don't think we'll do that this time, because it won't be a surprise, among other reasons, but I do feel that Coach K will unveil something surprising in an effort to keep Wisconsin off balance. Can't wait to see what it is.

If Karl Towns couldn't handle Kaminsky (and he couldn't), then I'm dubious that Marshall will be capable of defending Kaminsky nearly as well as you suggest

If not Marshall, how about "stealing" defensive minutes with Amile on Kaminsky? He's got the agility to keep up, and even if he ends up fouling, at least he's not one of our critical guys on O.

On the offensive side of the ball, I think we will do well tomorrow. I think Tyus, Quinn, and Justise will put a lot of pressure on their D. Also, look for us to try to run whenever possible.

Let's go get #5!!!!!

Danke Shane
04-06-2015, 08:59 AM
Anyone know yet if we are the home or away jerseys for this one? Do they decide with a coin flip, or is it overall seeding?

tux
04-06-2015, 09:02 AM
Anyone know yet if we are the home or away jerseys for this one? Do they decide with a coin flip, or is it overall seeding?

I'm almost positive it's determined by overall seed. Duke was the #3 overall seed (third #1) and Wisconsin was the #4 overall seed. Thus, Duke will be the home team. It was 1. UK, 2. Villanova, 3. Duke, 4. Wisconsin.

roywhite
04-06-2015, 09:25 AM
The main criticisms of this Duke team over the season have been:

Defensive problems overall, and particularly with dribble penetration
Over-reliance on 3-pt shooting
Occasional lack of focus

Based on our performance in the tournament, frankly none of those areas worry me. In fact, I think we're overdue for more production on 3-pointers. I like the backcourt matchup in this game, and like our chances overall.

Billy Dat
04-06-2015, 09:26 AM
One small thing I keep thinking about...

-This will be Coach K's 9th Monday in April coaching a National Championship Game
-This will be Jeff Capel's second Monday in April, one as a player, one as a coach
-This will be Nate James' third Monday in April, one as a player, two as a coach
-This will be Jon Scheyer's second Monday in April, one as a player, one as a coach

This staff knows a little something about playing and coaching on the first Monday in April.

All but Capel have experienced victory on this hallowed night.

This is, potentially, Capel's last night as a Duke assistant coach.

That's a storyline I could get into...win one for the Jeffer!

CDu
04-06-2015, 09:30 AM
One small thing I keep thinking about...

-This will be Coach K's 9th Monday in April coaching a National Championship Game
-This will be Jeff Capel's second Monday in April, one as a player, one as a coach
-This will be Nate James' third Monday in April, one as a player, two as a coach
-This will be Jon Scheyer's second Monday in April, one as a player, one as a coach

This staff knows a little something about playing and coaching on the first Monday in April.

All but Capel have experienced victory on this hallowed night.

This is, potentially, Capel's last night as a Duke assistant coach.

That's a storyline I could get into...win one for the Jeffer!

Slight edit: James played two Mondays in April: 1999 and 2001.

Billy Dat
04-06-2015, 09:33 AM
Slight edit: James played two Mondays in April: 1999 and 2001.

Great call, I think I have officially erased 1999 from my memory as that remains the most painful loss of my Duke fan career.

Still though, Nate Dogg showing up on the first Monday in April for the 4th time...that's nuts!!!!!

hurleyfor3
04-06-2015, 09:34 AM
Slight edit: James played two Mondays in April: 1999 and 2001.

The 1999 championship was on March 29. Also, the 1986 championship game was on March 31, so only seven Aprils for Coach K. :P

DangerDevil
04-06-2015, 09:39 AM
One small thing I keep thinking about...

-This will be Coach K's 9th Monday in April coaching a National Championship Game


I know they were wrong, but according to Mike and Mike this morning, this will be Coach K's 10th National Championship Game.

Hopefully that was just a bit of foreshadowing on their part.

Reilly
04-06-2015, 09:44 AM
Wisconsin lost by 10 to Duke, by 5 @Rutgers, and by 6 @Maryland

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/wisconsin/2015-schedule.html

Duke: 68% on 2s, 58% on 3s, 72% on FTs
Wisc: 39% on 2s, 43% on 3s, 81% on FTs


Rutg: 57% on 2s, 45% on 3s, 80% on FTs
Wisc: 54% on 2s, 24% on 3s, 56% on FTs


MD: 51% on 2s, 29% on 3s, 82% on FTs
Wisc: 47% on 2s, 27% on 3s, 58% on FTs

FerryFor50
04-06-2015, 09:47 AM
Wisconsin lost by 10 to Duke, by 5 @Rutgers, and by 6 @Maryland

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/wisconsin/2015-schedule.html

Duke: 68% on 2s, 58% on 3s, 72% on FTs
Wisc: 39% on 2s, 43% on 3s, 81% on FTs


Rutg: 57% on 2s, 45% on 3s, 80% on FTs
Wisc: 54% on 2s, 24% on 3s, 56% on FTs


MD: 51% on 2s, 29% on 3s, 82% on FTs
Wisc: 47% on 2s, 27% on 3s, 58% on FTs

I think you really have to throw out the Rutgers loss entirely.

They were down Jackson and Kaminsky that game.

FerryFor50
04-06-2015, 09:49 AM
So the thought is even though they're the 55th ranked defense by Pomery this offense can overcome that?

Offense wins championships. (Did I get that right?)

jipops
04-06-2015, 09:52 AM
Dekker is the guy I worry about the most and could get Justise into some real foul trouble. If we can somehow limit Dekker and prevent their guards from having above average games (for them), then I think we might be ok.

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 09:52 AM
Offense wins championships. (Did I get that right?)

Evidently because that is all the talking heads are talking about is how great Wisconsin's offense is. I think if Duke is clicking on offense then no one can beat them even a historically great Wisconsin offense.

nmduke2001
04-06-2015, 09:53 AM
I'd like to see a littel bit of that soft press we've played some this year. With the energy Wisconsin used Saturday night, I think the press could quickly tire their guards and could create some turnovers and easy transition buckets.

PackMan97
04-06-2015, 09:55 AM
Good luck Dukies!

I must admit, I am torn on this one....

Pro Duke
------------
You guys beat Duke twice this season
My Dad had his heart fixed at Duke back in the early 90s and is still alive and kicking for it
Best friend who had a kidney thing fixed at Duke way back when as well
First game I saw in a crowd atmosphere was the THE Duke/UK game with THE SHOT.
Winning would poke a stick in the eyes of Carolina fans everywhere

Anti-Duke
-------------
Wisconsin wears Red and is not named Maryland
You guys beat us this season when I had asked you not to

I must admit the red thing is more difficult to get over than I thought it would be....best of luck anyways! I think this is a win/win game for me and I can just hope for a fantastic college game between two teams.

Monmouth77
04-06-2015, 10:05 AM
I'm almost positive it's determined by overall seed. Duke was the #3 overall seed (third #1) and Wisconsin was the #4 overall seed. Thus, Duke will be the home team. It was 1. UK, 2. Villanova, 3. Duke, 4. Wisconsin.

I was sitting in my office staring at my 4 Duke National Championship SI covers (which I have framed on a blue background -- thanks to my lovely wife) and noticing that we wore the home whites in each of our title game victories.

It got me thinking whether we had ever lost under Coach K in the championship round when we were wearing white. Sadly, I recalled, the answer is yes: 1986.

But-- the overall trend is favorable. We are 4-1 in the home whites under Coach K.

'90, '94, and '99 were all years in which we wore blue (Duke and UConn were both #1 seeds in '99 but there must have been a coin flip-- I don't think the current rule was in place, because we entered the tournament ranked #1 in all polls).

For what it is worth (absolutely nothing, outside my superstition addled brain), we wore blue in '64 and '78 too.

tux
04-06-2015, 10:12 AM
I'd like to see a littel bit of that soft press we've played some this year. With the energy Wisconsin used Saturday night, I think the press could quickly tire their guards and could create some turnovers and easy transition buckets.

Agree with this. The Duke press after made baskets has been an adjustment that hasn't gotten that much attention. It helps the D in that it tends to take 10 or so seconds off the shot clock before the other team can really get into their offense. That said, I think it was most effective against teams that were looking to push the ball and get shots before we could get set (e.g., UNC). Conversely, Wisconsin likes to control tempo and is probably not going to kill us in transition. But I like taking the ball out of the PGs hands, as it really makes a few TOs more likely for a team that is great at protecting the ball. Amile has particularly been effective at the point of that press...

Newton_14
04-06-2015, 10:57 AM
I am stoked and can hardly do any work! (Thankfully I have a great boss who fully understands my fandom!)

Trying hard to obey K and stay in this moment, their moment (this group of kids), but hard not to think about the fact Duke has a great chance to make some history tonight with a win! 5 Titles would be awesome!

I love this team. Win or lose tonight. No predictions. They have a great chance to win a National Title, as does Wisconsin. It makes perfect sense to me that it's basically a pick'em game.

Praying they will win and have THEIR MOMENT! These kids deserve a title. They have had a great season, brought us great joy with soooo many big wins, and a camaraderie unmatched by most teams.

8 is Enough! Just Believe!

Go Devils!

Edit!!: Where is Nashville Devil to tell us not to sweat it, we are the better team and will win going away??? Dude has been money for quite awhile now!!

IBleedBlue
04-06-2015, 11:15 AM
Good luck Dukies!

I must admit, I am torn on this one....

Pro Duke
------------
You guys beat Duke twice this season
My Dad had his heart fixed at Duke back in the early 90s and is still alive and kicking for it
Best friend who had a kidney thing fixed at Duke way back when as well
First game I saw in a crowd atmosphere was the THE Duke/UK game with THE SHOT.
Winning would poke a stick in the eyes of Carolina fans everywhere

Anti-Duke
-------------
Wisconsin wears Red and is not named Maryland
You guys beat us this season when I had asked you not to

I must admit the red thing is more difficult to get over than I thought it would be....best of luck anyways! I think this is a win/win game for me and I can just hope for a fantastic college game between two teams.

To be honest, I am torn too. I support both programs. Both these have 'Student-Athletes'. I would have been fully pro-Duke if we were playing Kentucky. Now, it's almost tough to root against either team.
On one hand, I want Duke to win it's 5th and close the gap with other programs. On another, I want Coach Ryan to win his first. He has done his job with integrity against top shelf competition in Big10.
I don't want either team to lose but I would happy with anyone winning tonight.
Give us fans an overtime game tonight !!!

superdave
04-06-2015, 11:18 AM
I'd like to see a littel bit of that soft press we've played some this year. With the energy Wisconsin used Saturday night, I think the press could quickly tire their guards and could create some turnovers and easy transition buckets.

This is a good point. Our backcourt is an advantage and we could exploit that to a larger degree if we throw some full court pressure at them. Anything to get them out of rhythm.

I also want to go to Okafor early and both get him going and pick up a few fouls on Kaminsky.

Reilly
04-06-2015, 11:29 AM
Wisconsin shoots 37% (81st nationally) on 3-pointers.


For the season ...

Duke shoots: 56% on 2s (4th nationally), 39% on 3s (30th nationally), 70% on FTs (154th nationally)
Wisc shoots: 55% on 2s (9th nationally), 37% on 3s (81st nationally), 77% on FTs (10th nationally)

Jackson
04-06-2015, 11:30 AM
Who did Jay Bilas and Jay Williams pick tonight? I remember in 2001 Bilas picked Arizona to win. Perhaps he can pick the Badgers and bring #5 home for us tonight! Anyone else incredibly nervous? "Work" is not very productive today.

Henderson
04-06-2015, 11:33 AM
On one hand, I want Duke to win it's 5th and close the gap with other programs. On another, I want Coach Ryan to win his first. He has done his job with integrity against top shelf competition in Big10.

Bo Ryan already has 4 NCAA national championships as a head coach.


Give us fans an overtime game tonight !!!

No.

roywhite
04-06-2015, 11:41 AM
Who did Jay Bilas and Jay Williams pick tonight? I remember in 2001 Bilas picked Arizona to win. Perhaps he can pick the Badgers and bring #5 home for us tonight! Anyone else incredibly nervous? "Work" is not very productive today.

Didn't catch Jay Williams prediction yet; Bilas called for very even matchup, edge to Duke. More money has come in on Wiscy and they are now a 1-pt favorite in the betting line.

Seems to me there is a greater chance of Wisconsin coming out a bit flat; they worked hard for the KY win and sure celebrated; "business trip" is the Duke mantra.

CDu
04-06-2015, 11:56 AM
Dekker is the guy I worry about the most and could get Justise into some real foul trouble. If we can somehow limit Dekker and prevent their guards from having above average games (for them), then I think we might be ok.

I'm more worried about Kaminsky. I think Winslow can defend Dekker straight up. My concern is that Kaminsky can drag Okafor all over the floor and exploit his lack of defensive mobility.

If I'm Coach K (and I am most certainly not, but I can pretend!), I make Wisconsin's guards and Nigel Hayes beat me. I put Winslow on Dekker. I put Okafor/Plumlee on Kaminsky, and I trap Kaminsky anytime he gets the ball with help from a guard. I go under ball screens for any of their guards. If we're going to lose, I don't want it to be because Kaminsky eats Okafor's lunch in iso settings. I'll take my chances with Quinn Cook guarding Koenig/Jackson and with Tyus Jones guarding Gasser. That leaves Matt Jones on Nigel Hayes, which doesn't sound great. But Hayes doesn't seem to like to post up (despite his size), so maybe it will work. And if it doesn't, I'm just fine with calling on Jefferson to silence Hayes.

The nice thing is that Wisconsin brings even less offense off the bench than we do (unless Traevon Jackson finally re-emerges from his injuries). Showalter and Dukan are fill-ins that just buy time for the starters as needed. If Okafor and Kaminsky both get in foul trouble for example, that's a decided advantage to Duke, because we can win with Plumlee whereas Wisconsin without Kaminsky is pretty pedestrian.

On offesnse, I want to at least hold serve with our frontcourt guys and to win this game with our guards. I want Tyus Jones driving ad nauseum. I want Grayson Allen attacking the rim ad nauseum whenever he is in. I even want Matt Jones attacking if he's guarded by Hayes. I want Quinn Cook (who will likely be guarded by Gasser, who is an ELITE on-ball defender) to be more judicious, but to drive on occasion too. I want to make Wisconsin decide whether to risk fouls with help defense or to concede layups to our guards.

Man, I'm excited, nervous, anxious to get this thing going! 9.5 hours? Ugghh!!!

Skitzle
04-06-2015, 12:05 PM
Surprised no one has done this yet.


Keys to the Game

1. Foul Trouble
Who get's into it first. Dekker and Kaminsky will kill Duke if Okafor and Winslow get into foul trouble, you'll see Wisconsin go after these guys a lot early in the game.
On the flip side, Okafor and Winslow will go right after these guys on the other end. Duke's guards driving to the basket may play a surprise role in this. I would love to see Dekker, Kaminsky and Hayes get a few fouls trying to guard Allen on his way to the rim.
Wisconsin as the experienced team has had more experience dealing with foul trouble, but Duke hasn't had much of it this tourney either. I don't know why everyone expects Duke to be the one with foul trouble issues.

2. Duke's Defensive Rotations
Duke doesn't seem to have the size to guard Kaminsky, Dekker, and Hayes (don't sleep on Hayes!). In the first matchup, Amile was a starter. I think this is part of the reason we matched up so well with Wisconsin. Wouldn't be surprised to see Amile play a LOT of minutes today.

3. Turnovers
Duke's guards are quick and suffocating. If they can stop Wisconsin's guards from getting into their offense and force some turnovers leading to quick baskets, Duke will be in great shape. Getting Wisconsin to force turnovers = getting Wisconsin off their game (they're not used to it), will be very important.

4. Duke Guard Play
Linked to 1 and 3 above, but adding a separate spot here. Duke's guards are a key, they can create havoc on offense and defense. These are the guys that will disrupt Wisconsin's game plan. That said, don't underestimate Wisconsin's backcourt. They've beaten 3 of the 4 best preseason backcourts in the past two weeks (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24775303/-15-college-basketball-preview-10-best-backcourts-in-college-hoops). Cook and Tyus need to buck this trend for a win.


5. Dekker/Hayes Vs. Winslow/Jefferson/Jones
This game will feature some amazing wing talent. I this the winner of this match-up wins the game.

Specifically left off this list: Energy, both teams will bring it. Think Butler-Duke 2010. Wisconsin is not about to get hungover...

As a bonus
Why this game is going to be awesome

Player of the Year Vs. Player of The Year
Player of the Tournament vs Player of the Tournament
Rematch
Best Tournament Offense vs Best Tournament Defense (And third best offense!)
The win will be historic for either team.


Lets GO DUKE

FerryFor50
04-06-2015, 12:12 PM
Evidently because that is all the talking heads are talking about is how great Wisconsin's offense is. I think if Duke is clicking on offense then no one can beat them even a historically great Wisconsin offense.

Yea, exactly. It's not like Duke is some slouch on offense. Will be cool if both offenses click and we see a shootout.

Skitzle
04-06-2015, 12:13 PM
wiscy's adjusted efficiency over the last 10 games

123.6
120.9
132.0
134.5
125.2
136.6
118.9
132.2
131.8
123.3

Look at those numbers...LOOK AT THEM! they're absurd! 6 games over 130, 9 over 120, and the last one, a smidge below.

Duke's:
109.2
135.4
123.0
140.8
97.3
134.3
112.2
98.8
111.6
119.0

But our second BEST offensive performance in the tourney is effectively equivalent to wisconsin's WORST performance.

Aside from that, we've had a couple stinkers in there against utah and ND, and wiscy has had no stinkers since maryland. on February 24. 7 weeks ago.

That's why wiscy is so much ahead of us on offense. because frankly, their offense has been abusrd.

Would love to see how the defensive numbers compare.

fgb
04-06-2015, 12:17 PM
More money has come in on Wiscy and they are now a 1-pt favorite in the betting line.


somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but if the line has moved from pixkem to the Badgers -1,i think that means that there's more money being placed on duke. odds makers goal is to split the wagering, and make their money on percentage.

MarkD83
04-06-2015, 12:20 PM
We are doomed because Wisconsin plays great defense and offense, Big Frank is player of the year, Coach Ryan has 4 national championships, Wisc. just beat the "best team ever assemblied in the the history of college basketball" (Yes I believe everything I read on ESPN.) Wisc. lost to Md and we know Md left the ACC because of lack of competition. Wisc. beat UNC and we beat UNC twice (probably not a we are doomed statement but it is fun to add this in anyway.) Wisc beat Northern Kentucky and Northwestern so they obviously would have crushed North Florida who we should have lost to in the round of 64 and Patrick Davidson is still not walking through that door.

(OK the end of my superstitious rant.)

roywhite
04-06-2015, 12:23 PM
somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but if the line has moved from pixkem to the Badgers -1,i think that means that there's more money being placed on duke. odds makers goal is to split the wagering, and make their money on percentage.

Duke enters title game as underdog (http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12627603/duke-blue-devils-enter-ncaa-title-game-wisconsin-badgers-rare-underdog-role)


The Wisconsin Badgers were a consensus 1-point favorite over the Duke Blue Devils on Monday morning to win the title game Monday night, the smallest point spread in a men's national championship game in the past 20 seasons.

The early money was on the Badgers. The MGM sportsbook said Sunday that two times more money had been bet on Wisconsin than Duke, causing the line to move off the consensus opener of pick 'em to the Badgers being small favorites.

Duke95
04-06-2015, 12:28 PM
somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but if the line has moved from pixkem to the Badgers -1,i think that means that there's more money being placed on duke. odds makers goal is to split the wagering, and make their money on percentage.

No, actually more money has been placed on Wisconsin, twice as much, in fact, according to the MGM Sportsbook.
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12627603/duke-blue-devils-enter-ncaa-title-game-wisconsin-badgers-rare-underdog-role

Edit: roywhite posted the link already above.

FerryFor50
04-06-2015, 12:34 PM
Duke enters title game as underdog (http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12627603/duke-blue-devils-enter-ncaa-title-game-wisconsin-badgers-rare-underdog-role)

Must be nice to be the Vegas favorite but an underdog to the common eye.

Ultrarunner
04-06-2015, 12:35 PM
I'm more worried about Kaminsky. I think Winslow can defend Dekker straight up. My concern is that Kaminsky can drag Okafor all over the floor and exploit his lack of defensive mobility.

If I'm Coach K (and I am most certainly not, but I can pretend!), I make Wisconsin's guards and Nigel Hayes beat me. I put Winslow on Dekker. I put Okafor/Plumlee on Kaminsky, and I trap Kaminsky anytime he gets the ball with help from a guard. I go under ball screens for any of their guards. If we're going to lose, I don't want it to be because Kaminsky eats Okafor's lunch in iso settings. I'll take my chances with Quinn Cook guarding Koenig/Jackson and with Tyus Jones guarding Gasser. That leaves Matt Jones on Nigel Hayes, which doesn't sound great. But Hayes doesn't seem to like to post up (despite his size), so maybe it will work. And if it doesn't, I'm just fine with calling on Jefferson to silence Hayes.



I'd like to see Amile on Dekker early with Winslow on Hayes. Amile has the length and agility to keep up with Dekker and we don't sacrifice offensive energy on the defensive end. This is a game where the bigger line-up can be more effective on the defensive end.

And since I'm putting in my wish list for the game, I'd like to see Quinn have one of those out-of-body shooting experiences where everything he throws up snaps the bottom of the net as he goes out with the biggest night of his young life.

moonpie23
04-06-2015, 12:40 PM
i'm at work, but i'm getting nervous already......i'm going to sign off and quit reading all the prognostications......


i'll see you guys in chat...


go duke!!

Skitzle
04-06-2015, 12:41 PM
I'd like to see Amile on Dekker early with Winslow on Hayes. Amile has the length and agility to keep up with Dekker and we don't sacrifice offensive energy on the defensive end. This is a game where the bigger line-up can be more effective on the defensive end.

And since I'm putting in my wish list for the game, I'd like to see Quinn have one of those out-of-body shooting experiences where everything he throws up snaps the bottom of the net as he goes out with the biggest night of his young life.

That sounds awesome. Would love for Cook to be MOP

Troublemaker
04-06-2015, 12:44 PM
I don't have much time today. Gotta squeeze in the Key Stat gimmick post for positive mojo purposes. Reilly helps below:



Duke's four L's: 3-pt % for opp (63%, 50%, 44%, 44%)

Wisconsin shoots 37% (81st nationally) on 3-pointers.


Yes, my pick for the Key Stat tonight is Wisconsin's 3-pt %.

We'll need to get a little bit lucky tonight. I agree with others upthread that Wisconsin will be prepared for a switch-everything defense. The Badgers scored very efficiently when Kentucky tried that, and they're capable of doing the same to Duke, especially since they've seen us do it to them before. It's a bit unfortunate that Duke has to beat them a second time because that first time, Duke already came up with the perfect curveball to deal with a historically great offense. But now Wisconsin is sitting on that curveball.

Duke using zone is possible. It would be an extended matchup zone to help limit the 3-pointers somewhat. But since Wiscy plays 5 guys who can shoot, they'll still get an open three occasionally. And we'll need those to miss. Why zone? Wiscy doesn't offensive rebound that well (121st in the country), and they are 250th in the country in assists/FGM, meaning their historically great offensive efficiency of 128.5 isn't based on intricate passing (that can pick apart a zone). Instead, Wiscy finds mismatches and takes advantage of them, whether it's Kaminsky outside on a big man or inside on a guard after a switch. Playing zone would be an attempt to try to reduce those mismatch opportunities.

superdave
04-06-2015, 01:03 PM
2. Duke's Defensive Rotations
Duke doesn't seem to have the size to guard Kaminsky, Dekker, and Hayes (don't sleep on Hayes!). In the first matchup, Amile was a starter. I think this is part of the reason we matched up so well with Wisconsin. Wouldn't be surprised to see Amile play a LOT of minutes today.

3. Turnovers
Duke's guards are quick and suffocating. If they can stop Wisconsin's guards from getting into their offense and force some turnovers leading to quick baskets, Duke will be in great shape. Getting Wisconsin to force turnovers = getting Wisconsin off their game (they're not used to it), will be very important.


Great write-up.

Do you think we may see Amile help pressure the ball full court like we've seen a few times late this season? If he does that and gets back on Hayes, he could be really disruptive.

Duke95
04-06-2015, 01:06 PM
Must be nice to be the Vegas favorite but an underdog to the common eye.

Here we go with the "eye test" again. ;)

CDu
04-06-2015, 01:16 PM
I'd like to see Amile on Dekker early with Winslow on Hayes. Amile has the length and agility to keep up with Dekker and we don't sacrifice offensive energy on the defensive end. This is a game where the bigger line-up can be more effective on the defensive end.

That might work, and if Jefferson can defend Dekker I'd certainly prefer that matchup. But I'm concerned that Dekker's athleticism will be too much for Jefferson even though Jefferson can certainly match him in length. But (assuming Jefferson is up to the task) it would certainly be preferable to have Winslow guard Hayes from a "rest and rebounds" perspective rather than having to chase Dekker around out there.

And in the event that Coach K stays with his starting lineup, I'd expect Jones to get Dekker first (for those reasons.


And since I'm putting in my wish list for the game, I'd like to see Quinn have one of those out-of-body shooting experiences where everything he throws up snaps the bottom of the net as he goes out with the biggest night of his young life.

Yes, another one of those 8-10 from 3 games from Cook would be fabulous. He's certainly due. And for the first time in a long time, he doesn't have an incredibly taxing defensive assignment (Gasser is not a big offensive threat, and even Koenig - if Coach K assigns Cook to him - isn't as dangerous as the guys Cook has dealt with for the past several weeks) so maybe he'll have the legs to hunt down his 3pt shot.

79-77
04-06-2015, 01:18 PM
IMHO, if Winslow and Okafor can stay out of foul trouble and if Duke shoots the 3 reasonably well, we'll have a very good chance.

I'm pretty concerned about the foul trouble issue -- I think NCAA refs tend to get too excited on Monday night and call too many ticky-tack fouls (I'll never forget Shelden Williams and Emeka Okafor getting one BS call after another in the 2004 FF, resulting in a ridiculously distorted game.) And I think Duke would be in trouble if, say, Winslow were limited to 22 minutes or so due to fouls.

Does anyone have any #fancystats about Kaminski and Dekker getting their opponents in foul trouble?

mattman91
04-06-2015, 01:23 PM
#5 Duke jersey on. Very fitting, as tonight we earn our fifth banner.

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 01:27 PM
I am stoked and can hardly do any work! (Thankfully I have a great boss who fully understands my fandom!)

Trying hard to obey K and stay in this moment, their moment (this group of kids), but hard not to think about the fact Duke has a great chance to make some history tonight with a win! 5 Titles would be awesome!

I love this team. Win or lose tonight. No predictions. They have a great chance to win a National Title, as does Wisconsin. It makes perfect sense to me that it's basically a pick'em game.

Praying they will win and have THEIR MOMENT! These kids deserve a title. They have had a great season, brought us great joy with soooo many big wins, and a camaraderie unmatched by most teams.

8 is Enough! Just Believe!

Go Devils!

Edit!!: Where is Nashville Devil to tell us not to sweat it, we are the better team and will win going away??? Dude has been money for quite awhile now!!

I keep coming back to their defense being 55th in Pomeroy. They played good defense against Kentucky but Kentucky does not have an offense like Duke's. I think Duke can get stops when they need to and Quinn, Tyus, and maybe Grayson will be able to drive and dish. I think Duke is also due for a lights out 3 point shooting night.

To answer Newton, I am confident that Duke wins but not in the don't sweat it mode that you read during the regional.

uh_no
04-06-2015, 01:28 PM
Would love to see how the defensive numbers compare.

88.5
80.9
89.4
87.9
89.6

vs

111.1
121.0
120.5
107.3
114.3

so yeah. we're playing the best defense in the country in the tournament. Those are reallly really good numbers.

dukelion
04-06-2015, 01:40 PM
I keep coming back to their defense being 55th in Pomeroy. They played good defense against Kentucky but Kentucky does not have an offense like Duke's. I think Duke can get stops when they need to and Quinn, Tyus, and maybe Grayson will be able to drive and dish. I think Duke is also due for a lights out 3 point shooting night.

To answer Newton, I am confident that Duke wins but not in the don't sweat it mode that you read during the regional.

Completely agree.

Wisconsin hasn't seen an offense like ours yet in the tourney and they haven't exactly been locking teams down either.

Even a team like Oregon was able to hang around most of the game.

Wisconsin is a great team but the pre-game hyperbole that they're a team of destiny is getting a bit nuts. It's like the media needs to immediately replace their Kentucky narrative with something else......it just feels a bit forced.

CDu
04-06-2015, 01:48 PM
I keep coming back to their defense being 55th in Pomeroy. They played good defense against Kentucky but Kentucky does not have an offense like Duke's. I think Duke can get stops when they need to and Quinn, Tyus, and maybe Grayson will be able to drive and dish. I think Duke is also due for a lights out 3 point shooting night.

To answer Newton, I am confident that Duke wins but not in the don't sweat it mode that you read during the regional.

It's true: UK's offensive strengths are in their ability to score in the post, their ability to offensive rebound, their ability to fast break when needed, and their ability to draw fouls and hit free throws. Well, Wisconsin's strengths are in preventing 3 of those 4 things: the defensive rebound, they don't allow fast break points, and they don't foul.

Duke has much more ability to get (and hit) good shots in the half court, something that isn't necessarily UK's strength. More importantly, we have several guys who can create their own shot. Wisconsin has one elite defender in Gasser and one really good defender in Kaminsky. Everyone else is just okay, and they like to pack it in if they can. But guys like Koenig and Jackson are very susceptible to being beaten off the dribble, and if you shoot well you can give them trouble.

Of course, Wisconsin doesn't win based on defense. They win by not letting you run away and hide on offense and by having the most efficient offense in the country. We should be able to score on them; the question is can we stop them enough?

Should be a great game. Last time we played them we couldn't miss from the field, and they didn't shoot well. If that happens again, we win. But they could very easily change the script.

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 01:53 PM
Duke has also played a ridiculous schedule and won some big games on the road. I know the title game is different but, and it's been discussed, Duke has time and again this season rose to the occasion in big games this year. Wisconsin has too and beating the #15 team in espn.com's list of greatest teams in the espn.com era is a huge win and congrats to them. I think Duke finds a way to win and I really wouldn't be surprised if Duke won the game be double digits.

camion
04-06-2015, 01:59 PM
Completely agree.

Wisconsin hasn't seen an offense like ours yet in the tourney and they haven't exactly been locking teams down either.

Even a team like Oregon was able to hang around most of the game.

Wisconsin is a great team but the pre-game hyperbole that they're a team of destiny is getting a bit nuts. It's like the media needs to immediately replace their Kentucky narrative with something else......it just feels a bit forced.

It's logical that the team (Wisconsin) that beat the team of destiny (UK) is the new team of destiny. Duke won't be the team of destiny unless/until they win tonight.

The team that wins tonight will had have had been the team of destiny all along. But that only will have had been known after the fact.

That's why they play the games.

roywhite
04-06-2015, 02:01 PM
Duke 80, Wisconsin 70 - 12/3/2014 (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=209793431)

FWIW --

My main recollection was just how good Traevon Jackson was in that first game; not many opposing players had a better game vs Duke this season....Jerian Grant and Angel Rodriquez, but not many others come to mind.

Duke obviously shot very well; perhaps more importantly at this point, we were able to get good quality looks, and I believe that should still be the case.

Wisconsin didn't shoot poorly, esp. from 3-pt and the foul line, but couldn't keep up.

Dekker and Winslow had very similar stat lines; both are highly likely to improve, but may still offset.

6 steals for Duke to 2 for Wiscy....I'd love to see that difference again.

pfrduke
04-06-2015, 02:04 PM
Does anyone have any #fancystats about Kaminski and Dekker getting their opponents in foul trouble?

Kaminsky is pretty good - 5.2 fouls drawn per 40, so in an average game he'll probably get someone in foul trouble. Dekker is at 3.7/40, which is not anything special.

For comparison, Okafor is slightly better than Kaminsky (5.4/40). Winslow and Jones are both better than Dekker, at 4.4 and 4.0, respectively.

Skitzle
04-06-2015, 02:20 PM
Will be interested to see how early we play zone. Will help if we get in foul trouble but we may play out the gate to throw them off. Also interested to see how much full court press we apply with Dekkar and Kaminsky being good ball handlers

pfrduke
04-06-2015, 02:22 PM
Will be interested to see how early we play zone. Will help if we get in foul trouble but we may play out the gate to throw them off. Also interested to see how much full court press we apply with Dekkar and Kaminsky being good ball handlers

I think frequently switching the defensive looks could be in order. Wisconsin is disciplined enough to figure out a zone if it sees 5-6 possessions in a row of it. But if we go 2-3, followed by a 1-2-1-1 soft press, followed by man in which we ICE screens, followed by man in which we switch screens, followed by 3-2, followed by man in which we trap screens, etc., we could monkey up the works enough to throw them off. One way to not let them get comfortable on offense is to force them to respond to a different look every time down the court.

pfrduke
04-06-2015, 02:27 PM
I think frequently switching the defensive looks could be in order. Wisconsin is disciplined enough to figure out a zone if it sees 5-6 possessions in a row of it. But if we go 2-3, followed by a 1-2-1-1 soft press, followed by man in which we ICE screens, followed by man in which we switch screens, followed by 3-2, followed by man in which we trap screens, etc., we could monkey up the works enough to throw them off. One way to not let them get comfortable on offense is to force them to respond to a different look every time down the court.

I should add that the risk of this play is that it requires a high degree of focus and cohesion on the part of the defense - everyone has to remember, every time down the court, which look we're using and how their responsibility changes/adjusts as a result. It creates many more opportunities for missed assignments or miscommunication.

79-77
04-06-2015, 02:29 PM
Kaminsky is pretty good - 5.2 fouls drawn per 40, so in an average game he'll probably get someone in foul trouble. Dekker is at 3.7/40, which is not anything special.

For comparison, Okafor is slightly better than Kaminsky (5.4/40). Winslow and Jones are both better than Dekker, at 4.4 and 4.0, respectively.

Good info. Thanks.

Henderson
04-06-2015, 02:30 PM
At some point this afternoon, I expect a Duke player to read all this detailed strategic and tactical advice and say, "Dad, I know. I've got this. Relax."

dukelifer
04-06-2015, 02:38 PM
Duke 80, Wisconsin 70 - 12/3/2014 (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=209793431)

FWIW --

My main recollection was just how good Traevon Jackson was in that first game; not many opposing players had a better game vs Duke this season....Jerian Grant and Angel Rodriquez, but not many others come to mind.

Duke obviously shot very well; perhaps more importantly at this point, we were able to get good quality looks, and I believe that should still be the case.

Wisconsin didn't shoot poorly, esp. from 3-pt and the foul line, but couldn't keep up.

Dekker and Winslow had very similar stat lines; both are highly likely to improve, but may still offset.

6 steals for Duke to 2 for Wiscy....I'd love to see that difference again.

Someone also needs to play Rasheed's role. He had a very big game. His quickness was a big factor.

Edouble
04-06-2015, 02:42 PM
I fully expect us to come out in man and to see the 2-2-1 full court press when Marshall and Amile get in the game after the first TV time out. I think we trap FKam when Wisconsin is in the front court and he's anywhere outside the paint. I too expect to see some new defensive wrinkles, but not sure what they will be.

I would think we go to zone if we are up a few points mid way through the first half. No need to goad them into taking threes early and get off to a hot start a la Michigan State.

I'll take Winslow on Dekkar all day. I'm a believer.

Coach K gets his thumb ring.

Go Devils!!!!!

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 02:42 PM
Someone also needs to play Rasheed's role. He had a very big game. His quickness was a big factor.

Someone like Justise?

jay
04-06-2015, 02:45 PM
Someone like Justise?

Beat me to it. Looking at the box score again, Winslow was a non-factor in that first game. He won't be a non-factor tonight.

wgl1228
04-06-2015, 02:48 PM
I need us to get up 7-10 points and keep it there to prevent fainting tonight!

Skitzle
04-06-2015, 02:48 PM
Or Grayson Allen he's been a pretty quick player who drives well.

superdave
04-06-2015, 02:50 PM
I think frequently switching the defensive looks could be in order. Wisconsin is disciplined enough to figure out a zone if it sees 5-6 possessions in a row of it. But if we go 2-3, followed by a 1-2-1-1 soft press, followed by man in which we ICE screens, followed by man in which we switch screens, followed by 3-2, followed by man in which we trap screens, etc., we could monkey up the works enough to throw them off. One way to not let them get comfortable on offense is to force them to respond to a different look every time down the court.

We probably start off in man because we have played it so well the last few games. I could see us doing that along with a soft zone press. As soon as they break halfcourt we'd get back into man.

But if something is not working then throw the curveballs. I do really like the idea of Amile and Matt spearheading the press.

sagegrouse
04-06-2015, 02:52 PM
It's logical that the team (Wisconsin) that beat the team of destiny (UK) is the new team of destiny. Duke won't be the team of destiny unless/until they win tonight.

The team that wins tonight will had have had been the team of destiny all along. But that only will have had been known after the fact.

That's why they play the games.

I can argue tonight two ways:

(1) Wisconsin has the best two (or three) wins in the tournament -- Kentucky, Arizona ( and UNC). They are battle- hardened and unlikely to be denied.

OR

(2) Duke is the best team in the ACC, allowing for a couple of slip-ups, and the ACC is by far the strongest conference. (Cue my endless tirade on "a fools's errand."). Five teams in the Sweet 16? Wow! UNC, the 5th best ACC team, stuck with Wisconsin the entire game. Oh, and Duke won AT Wisconsin.

I favor Duke tonight, but I don't trust my judgment when I have a stake in the outcome. Duke has handled all-comers with ease the last two months (losing by getting sloppy in the 1H against ND and winning in OT against VT). The team is very quick, and there ain't no one in college hopes like Justise.

dukelifer
04-06-2015, 02:58 PM
Someone like Justise?

Fine with me. Sad thing is that win or lose- we will have just one more game with Justise. This tourney has made him a star.

jay
04-06-2015, 03:10 PM
For the record, it is possible to beat Wisconsin even without upping the tempo and shooting poorly from 3-point range.

Maryland did just that back in February. (http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400595535)

The game plan? Get the ball to Dez Wells and have him drive and hit layups or get fouled and hit free throws. Wells shot the ball 17 times that game (only one 3pt attempt, which he made) and went 7-7 from the free throw line.

So, I wouldn't be surprised to see the game plan tonight be a similar approach to the MSU game: spread the floor and drive, drive, drive, drive.

I don't expect to see us trying to beat Wisconsin from the 3pt line tonight. I expect to see us beat them from the FT line. They have great "free throw defense" as the commentators have loved to say, but if we can induce them into even marginally more fouls than they're used to, we'll have the advantage.

MrPoon
04-06-2015, 03:18 PM
Seems as a recency bias has settled in on the press and all the attention as shifted to Wisky.
But the same thing, I think, is happening when we look at players and match ups. How is no one here or in the media talking about Jones? Tyus played great in Madison and his best games have been in the biggest moments. Low turnovers, clutch shots and late drives resulting in and ones (plus foul trouble on bigs and getting to the bonus first).
He is the guy I think opens this thing up and will have a sneaky 16 point type of game.
My 2 cents. Plus I'll be there with my 1k hat on, we've never lost with that hat on.....

superdave
04-06-2015, 03:19 PM
For the record, it is possible to beat Wisconsin even without upping the tempo and shooting poorly from 3-point range.

Maryland did just that back in February. (http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400595535)

The game plan? Get the ball to Dez Wells and have him drive and hit layups or get fouled and hit free throws. Wells shot the ball 17 times that game (only one 3pt attempt, which he made) and went 7-7 from the free throw line.

So, I wouldn't be surprised to see the game plan tonight be a similar approach to the MSU game: spread the floor and drive, drive, drive, drive.

I don't expect to see us trying to beat Wisconsin from the 3pt line tonight. I expect to see us beat them from the FT line. They have great "free throw defense" as the commentators have loved to say, but if we can induce them into even marginally more fouls than they're used to, we'll have the advantage.


Tyus can absolutely drive the lane tonight. He has been really good at that both late in games and when he feels the offense is lagging some. I would expect Okafor to set some high ball screens tonight if they are doubling him in the blocks, in order to open the lane up.

detule
04-06-2015, 03:19 PM
I don't expect to see us trying to beat Wisconsin from the 3pt line tonight. I expect to see us beat them from the FT line.


You may be right - however I suspect early success (or lack there of) from beyond the arc may feed into the game plan. Playing loose and with confidence is a big factor when deciding whether to pull the trigger, IMO.

KandG
04-06-2015, 03:20 PM
More information for neurotic types (a/k/a me) to burn mental energy with:

Was looking at the shot charts at Shot Analytics (excellent resource, btw, though requires a subscription). They allow reproduction of a couple of charts with attribution, so here's Duke's offensive shot distribution vs Wisconsin's defensive shots allowed:

4977 4978

Everybody here knows our pet shooting spots in the corners (especially the left) and at the rim with Jah. What's interesting is that though Wisconsin may be just OK defensively nationally, they're very good defending the corners and shots at the rim. On the other hand, they defend 3s at the wings quite poorly, so it may be an opportunity for Matt, Tyus, Justise and Quinn to get off some good looks there.

Though I can't reproduce the complementary shot charts on defense (for Duke) and offense (for Wisconsin), generally speaking we're average at defending the corners and shots at the rim, and good at defending the wings. (In terms of volume, Duke is good at minimizing 3s, but does allow a lot at the rim and mid-range, understandable given the way we pressure high).

Wisconsin, as you might expect for such an elite offensive team, is frighteningly good at shooting from several spots on the floor, especially the elbows and wings.

Skitzle
04-06-2015, 03:26 PM
Can you do the other way around as well.awesome chart!

aimo
04-06-2015, 03:38 PM
I need us to get up 7-10 points and keep it there to prevent fainting tonight!

I require 20.

gcashwell
04-06-2015, 03:49 PM
I require 20.

30 for me. With five minutes left.

Looking back at past title games, it's fairly difficult to find games where either team could have been considered comfortable. This will be a high stress event for all involved.

flyingdutchdevil
04-06-2015, 04:07 PM
I require 20.

Yeah, me too.

Wait, we talking points? I thought you were talking drinks.

Working on número 2.

Gonna be a looooong night

Henderson
04-06-2015, 04:12 PM
Yeah, me too.

Wait, we talking points? I thought you were talking drinks.

Working on número 2.

Gonna be a looooong night

Don't even think about tired. Get tired out of your head right now.

KandG
04-06-2015, 04:18 PM
Can you do the other way around as well.awesome chart!

Thanks for looking. Unfortunately, as I indicated on the original post, I'm really not supposed to reproduce any more of the charts because it's a paid subscription. I did summarize verbally some of the highlights from looking at the opposite charts:

"Though I can't reproduce the complementary shot charts on defense (for Duke) and offense (for Wisconsin), generally speaking we're average at defending the corners and shots at the rim, and good at defending the wings. (In terms of volume, Duke is good at minimizing 3s, but does allow a lot at the rim and mid-range, understandable given the way we pressure high)."

For what it's worth, Duke through the season has defended the area where Wisconsin is especially prolific from 3 (the right wing) very well. I suspect this won't matter much for tonight, though. Coaches don't necessarily look at a spot on a shot chart and say "focus on that" as much as they look at player and team tendencies through video and charts, combine that with play scouting, and try to make it harder for the opponent to execute their primary and secondary actions.

As many people have indicated, Wisconsin is tough because they are so patient and can re-set against good defenses and hunt out additional ways to score if their primary options are taken away. We're going to have be as patient and focused on D as they are on offense.

CR9
04-06-2015, 04:20 PM
Wonder if K will give Wojo a ring about their meeting with Wiscy. Marquette didn't have a starter over 6'7" and played almost exclusively pack line zone and made Wisconsin shoot over them. Might be interesting to see how much, if any, zone Duke plays this game.

Troublemaker
04-06-2015, 04:34 PM
More information for neurotic types (a/k/a me) to burn mental energy with:

Was looking at the shot charts at Shot Analytics (excellent resource, btw, though requires a subscription). They allow reproduction of a couple of charts with attribution, so here's Duke's offensive shot distribution vs Wisconsin's defensive shots allowed:

Awesome, thanks! Clearly we need to run every single play to the left wing.

538 adds some nuggets here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/march-madness-crib-notes-duke-and-wisconsin-flip-a-coin-for-the-championship/

Excerpt:

Between Kaminsky, Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker, the Badgers had the nation’s third-most-efficient post-up offense and its top isolation attack (by far), according to Synergy Sports. Meanwhile, Okafor’s defensive stats in the post were below average, and Duke’s biggest defensive weakness is against — you guessed it — isolation plays.
------

As I alluded to upthread with Wisconsin's assist %, this isn't an offensive attack based on non-talented guys using beautiful screens and ball movement to win. They're not completely bereft of that, sure. But they do a ton of iso-balling the weaknesses / mismatches they find.

gcashwell
04-06-2015, 04:50 PM
Wonder if K will give Wojo a ring about their meeting with Wiscy. Marquette didn't have a starter over 6'7" and played almost exclusively pack line zone and made Wisconsin shoot over them. Might be interesting to see how much, if any, zone Duke plays this game.

I wouldn't mind a little 2-3 zone at times to let our guys rest and avoid fouls.

subzero02
04-06-2015, 04:54 PM
I really hope the team is calmer than I am. I am glad Scheyer is on the bench... Really glad. He has experience on this stage and also against Ryan. If we are fortunate enough to win, I just hope the game isn't as close as it was in 2010

Bob Green
04-06-2015, 05:00 PM
If we are fortunate enough to win, I just hope the game isn't as close as it was in 2010

Speaking of 2010, will the bench play more or less minutes than in 2010? Will the bench be more or less productive than in 2010? Against Butler, the bench played 17 minutes (Miles Plumlee 9, Andre Dawkins 5, Mason Plumlee 3) recording 4 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal and 0 points.

I'm going with the over on both questions.

KandG
04-06-2015, 05:00 PM
Last bit of optimism before I sign off and get ready to watch the game. From Kevin Pelton, ESPN's NBA statistics guru (who also has models for evaulating college players' production and how well they would adapt to the NBA), when asked for his prediction on tonight's game:

"I'm going Duke. Like Winslow, the Blue Devils have made a stunning in-season transition, developing into an elite defense after struggling so badly that Coach K was forced to the zone for extended stretches. Both teams are determined to take away opponent 3-point attempts, and between Winslow's slashing and Okafor's ability to score one-on-one in the post, I think Duke is more equipped to win without making 3s. The Blue Devils made just three triples in blowing out Michigan State and two against Utah in the regional semifinal."

This is from a column discussing Dekker vs Winslow in terms of pro prospects, and is recommended to anyone with Insider access at ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/12627456/debating-sam-dekker-vs-justise-winslow-nba-draft

LET'S GO DUKE!!!

Philadukie
04-06-2015, 05:22 PM
Fascinating stats and analysis that I've enjoyed reading in this thread. Super-excited and nervous for the game!

Not surprising that most talking heads are going with Wisconsin. The "Team of Destiny" narrative is a strong one, and while I'm always skeptical of more, let's say, airy discussions of nebulous things like "destiny", I do think there is something legitimate here in this case -- but only to the extent that it gives Wisconsin a "propulsive edge," as hard as that is to measure in any empirical way.

But stepping back; it's a fascinating tale really. It all starts with Harrison's made three in the Final Four last year, followed by Kaminski and Dekker immediately saying they're coming back to win the title, followed by Kaminski's essay. Fast forward into the season, where things look bleak with the injury loss of Jackson but instead the way is opened for the emergence of a "steady and heady" sophomore who actually makes the team BETTER. Add in a tough run through the Big Ten season and tournament (with an overtime win in the championship against another Final Four team), and then throw in the stunning FF rematch and ultimate victory against an undefeated one-and-done Kentucky squad that beat them in the previous Final Four. Finally, top it all off by playing Duke in the Championship Game - the standard bearer of college basketball over the last 30 years - with a chance to revenge a wrenching home loss earlier in the season and achieve their first championship in over 70 years -- all led by a group of goofy but hardworking and committed upper classmen, who provide the comfort to both the casual fan and purist alike that college basketball can still be played and won the "right way."

Folks, that's powerful stuff. And darn if I wasn't a Duke fan, I'd be enthralled by it too. Who can root against that narrative?

But, we've been here before. Who was more of a Team of Destiny than Butler in 2010? Playing in the Championship game just miles from their Indiana campus and where parts of Hoosiers was filmed no less? That was almost an equally powerful "destiny" narrative, but Duke prevailed.

As unpopular as it is to spoil a great story, let's do it again tonight and write a great ending to OUR STORY!

conmanlhughes
04-06-2015, 05:28 PM
Last bit of optimism before I sign off and get ready to watch the game. From Kevin Pelton, ESPN's NBA statistics guru (who also has models for evaulating college players' production and how well they would adapt to the NBA), when asked for his prediction on tonight's game:

"I'm going Duke. Like Winslow, the Blue Devils have made a stunning in-season transition, developing into an elite defense after struggling so badly that Coach K was forced to the zone for extended stretches. Both teams are determined to take away opponent 3-point attempts, and between Winslow's slashing and Okafor's ability to score one-on-one in the post, I think Duke is more equipped to win without making 3s. The Blue Devils made just three triples in blowing out Michigan State and two against Utah in the regional semifinal."

This is from a column discussing Dekker vs Winslow in terms of pro prospects, and is recommended to anyone with Insider access at ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/12627456/debating-sam-dekker-vs-justise-winslow-nba-draft

LET'S GO DUKE!!!

@roywhite.... Here ya go... I am not completely crazy. :D

hack
04-06-2015, 05:55 PM
I'd pull for Wisconsin. I've admired Coach Ryan and his team for several years, watching him build to where they are now. I'd love to see them win one, just not this year. I had a feeling we could beat MSU pretty easily, but I don't have a feel for this one, except that our best are a little better than their best and our backcourt is better. Then there's K. Enough said?

fidel
04-06-2015, 06:02 PM
Not sure if anyone has caught this but Kedsy's analysis impressed not only Featherston, but CBS Sports (although they give credit to the N&O).

I swear the talking heads read this site.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25137422/final-four-reviewing-dukes-win-at-wisconsin-in-december

cptnflash
04-06-2015, 06:21 PM
More information for neurotic types (a/k/a me) to burn mental energy with:

Was looking at the shot charts at Shot Analytics (excellent resource, btw, though requires a subscription). They allow reproduction of a couple of charts with attribution, so here's Duke's offensive shot distribution vs Wisconsin's defensive shots allowed:

4977 4978

Everybody here knows our pet shooting spots in the corners (especially the left) and at the rim with Jah. What's interesting is that though Wisconsin may be just OK defensively nationally, they're very good defending the corners and shots at the rim. On the other hand, they defend 3s at the wings quite poorly, so it may be an opportunity for Matt, Tyus, Justise and Quinn to get off some good looks there.

Though I can't reproduce the complementary shot charts on defense (for Duke) and offense (for Wisconsin), generally speaking we're average at defending the corners and shots at the rim, and good at defending the wings. (In terms of volume, Duke is good at minimizing 3s, but does allow a lot at the rim and mid-range, understandable given the way we pressure high).

Wisconsin, as you might expect for such an elite offensive team, is frighteningly good at shooting from several spots on the floor, especially the elbows and wings.

Thanks for the post, I didn't know this web site existed, I will subscribe immediately.

To me, the most interesting part of this isn't the shooting percentages, it's the frequencies. In particular, our shot chart clearly demonstrates that Duke players take almost no long twos - which makes sense, given that long twos are the least efficient shots in the game. We're sort of the college version of the Houston Rockets in this regard - shots at the rim, and 3's. But what's interesting about Wisconsin's defense is that they seem to be able to coax their opponents into taking a reasonable amount of long twos - the hexagons are roughly the same size everywhere on their defensive shot chart. But my guess is they won't be able to do that against us - many posters have noted that we should be able to drive their guards, which will either lead to finishes at the rim or kicks for open 3's. This would suggest that we'll be able to score reasonably on Wisconsin, as I (and many others) have suggested previously. Seeing these two charts reinforces my belief that this game will come down to what happens when Wisconsin has the ball, where our recently great defense will be matched up with their historically great offense.

The other thing that's interesting about our shot chart is our lower shooting percentage on 3's from the top of the key, relative to the wings and the corners. I would guess that's mostly a shot type issue - a lot of 3's from the top of the key are pull-ups off the dribble, whereas the corners are almost always catch-and-shoot (I'm aware that the corners are also a slightly shorter shot). Would be interesting to see our percentages from all over the floor on catch-and-shoot attempts only - hopefully this web site has that.

Thanks again for the post, these types of charts are a great complement to stuff like KP.

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 06:30 PM
So far my favorite analysis of tonight's game is Wisconsin had a healthy Dekker and Duke no longer has Rasheed. They seem to be ignoring how great Justise has played the last couple of months. I also think Grayson plays a big role tonight, not Billy McCaffery against Kansas big but Grayson is going to make a couple of big plays tonight.

DukieInBrasil
04-06-2015, 07:07 PM
So far my favorite analysis of tonight's game is Wisconsin had a healthy Dekker and Duke no longer has Rasheed. They seem to be ignoring how great Justise has played the last couple of months. I also think Grayson plays a big role tonight, not Billy McCaffery against Kansas big but Grayson is going to make a couple of big plays tonight.

I second that! Justise was a decent role player in the 1st meeting, but is a bona-fide star now. The Congressman was barely even a role player then, but has shown some surprising skills lately. Even though UW can watch game film, i don't think it will be that easy to adjust to the way that the team is playing now vs. then.
UW is no doubt a very good team, although one Duke has already beaten. No doubt UW's players have improved, but i don't think they play like a different team now as compared to then, whereas i think Duke does play like a different team. In the 1st game, i thought Duke played about as well as they could have possibly played, and that may be true, for that iteration of the team. I don't think the current iteration has played at peak potential yet, hopefully it does tonight!!!

DavidBenAkiva
04-06-2015, 07:21 PM
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NYBri
04-06-2015, 07:30 PM
Gettin' Squirrelly.

Is it game time yet?

grateful_duke
04-06-2015, 07:33 PM
Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

let's go duke !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jackson
04-06-2015, 07:38 PM
1 hour and 40 more minutes.

slower
04-06-2015, 07:50 PM
Lenny picking Duke to win 78-70. Obviously trying to jinx it. :p

Already feeling nauseated.

NM Duke Fan
04-06-2015, 07:55 PM
I second that! Justise was a decent role player in the 1st meeting, but is a bona-fide star now. The Congressman was barely even a role player then, but has shown some surprising skills lately. Even though UW can watch game film, i don't think it will be that easy to adjust to the way that the team is playing now vs. then.
UW is no doubt a very good team, although one Duke has already beaten. No doubt UW's players have improved, but i don't think they play like a different team now as compared to then, whereas i think Duke does play like a different team. In the 1st game, i thought Duke played about as well as they could have possibly played, and that may be true, for that iteration of the team. I don't think the current iteration has played at peak potential yet, hopefully it does tonight!!!

Your post echoed what has been at the forefront of my thinking as well. This current Duke team is vastly different than the one even two months ago, let alone when they last played Wisconsin. And I don't think Wisconsin has changed all that much, just gotten a bit better at doing what they do and sticking with who they are.

With the stunning play of Winslow on both sides of the ball, and Grayson coming on strong too, this team is now harder to defend and be defended by, harder to plan for, and overall quite a bit harder to beat. The overall momentum Duke is bringing to the championship game is very impressive, at times they are like a buzz saw.

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 08:00 PM
Duke has held teams to 55 points in the tourney. That includes shutting down two potent offenses in Utah and Gonzaga. I'm not saying that they will do that to Wisconsin but Kentucky with no offense other than lobs and run outs was up 4 with a chance to ice it. I think Duke will be able to score against Wisconsin. Both teams are playing at a ridiculously high level right now though. Should be a fun game that has me sweating like I'm playing.

Jackson
04-06-2015, 08:00 PM
Bilas, Battier and Vitale all picked Duke tonight.

brevity
04-06-2015, 08:01 PM
Some celebrity leanings. Interestingly, Sam Seaborn and Josh Lyman on opposite sides. (The young woman pictured below is actress Eliza Taylor of The CW's The 100.)

Stephen King (https://twitter.com/StephenKing/status/584784833190043648) ‏@StephenKing

Duke.

11:29 AM - 5 Apr 2015

Tom Joyner (https://twitter.com/TJMShow/status/585022574934896640) @TJMShow

But good news, I'm going with Duke all the way!

3:13 AM - 6 Apr 2015

Mike Trout (https://twitter.com/Trouty20/status/584463113983918080) ‏@Trouty20

Let's go Duke !!!! #DukeNation

2:10 PM - 4 Apr 2015

Rob Lowe (https://twitter.com/RobLowe/status/585167522682535937) ‏@RobLowe

Love the way #Wisconsin balls. In any other #Final they'd be my fave. But not tonight. As I've said all year.. Go #Duke! #TakeWhatsYours

12:49 PM - 6 Apr 2015

Bradley Whitford (https://twitter.com/WhitfordBradley/status/584569532724948992) @WhitfordBradley

On Wisconsin!!!!

9:13 PM - 4 Apr 2015

Skylar Grey (https://twitter.com/SkylarGrey/status/584569659053092866) @SkylarGrey

Congratulations @UWBadgers!!!!! #Wisconsin represent!

9:14 PM - 4 Apr 2015

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (https://twitter.com/StenhouseJr/status/585216537797255170) ‏@StenhouseJr

Don't tell my crew chief but Wisconsin lol

4:04 PM - 6 Apr 2015

Jason Rothenberg (https://twitter.com/JRothenbergTV/status/584784895194501120) ‏@JRothenbergTV

#THE100 BTS #MARCHMADNESS EDITION! Sorry #Duke, the #Badgers have a secret weapon: @MisElizaJane (Wardrobe from 105)
4982

11:29 AM - 5 Apr 2015

NashvilleDevil
04-06-2015, 08:01 PM
Bilas, Batier and Vitale all picked Duke tonight.

And Jay Williams did not I'm sure. He's picked against Duke in every game since the Sweet 16 I think.

Jackson
04-06-2015, 08:09 PM
And Jay Williams did not I'm sure. He's picked against Duke in every game since the Sweet 16 I think.

Haven't seen a quote from JWill. Really surprised that Bilas went with us. Knew we had the Battier vote. Hate there isn't a Duke feed tonight for the game. Would like to hear Alaa again. Grant is way too "objective" for my tastes. I like homerism.

-jk
04-06-2015, 08:11 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke! Beat the Badgers!

-jk

jmck214
04-06-2015, 08:20 PM
Line moved to Wisconsin -1.5. I believe we are 3-0 as underdogs this year. Wisconsin Louisville and uva. Unc was either -1 or +1. Either way let's keep the underdog streak going

Newton_14
04-06-2015, 08:25 PM
Not sure if anyone has caught this but Kedsy's analysis impressed not only Featherston, but CBS Sports (although they give credit to the N&O).

I swear the talking heads read this site.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25137422/final-four-reviewing-dukes-win-at-wisconsin-in-december

That's because Joe Giglio stole it from Kedsy which is just wrong. There is no way they came up with that analysis on their own.

I think Kedsy should be owed some Royalties or something.