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View Full Version : MBB FF: Duke v. Sparty (Apr 4, 6:09 pm, TBS) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



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pfrduke
03-29-2015, 07:09 PM
Let's get it done and go 2-0 against MSU this year.

hurleyfor3
03-29-2015, 07:18 PM
Espn's bracket says we're the first game.

Dukehky
03-29-2015, 07:19 PM
We goin baby!!!!!

Indoor66
03-29-2015, 07:39 PM
Espn's bracket says we're the first game.

ESPN has it's usual accuracy standard. We play the 2nd game at about 6:20 PM on TBS.

FerryFor50
03-29-2015, 07:40 PM
Duke beat MSU earlier this season. Okafor had his first of many monster games.

But these are two different teams. Duke's picked it up on defense. Mich St has played much, much better of late. Do not overlook them.

I think Duke's in good shape to win, but they will need to keep Dawson off the boards and focus on stopping Travis Trice.

91devil
03-29-2015, 07:41 PM
ESPN has it's usual accuracy standard. We play the 2nd game at about 6:20 PM on TBS.

I think we will probably be the first game, whatever time that is. Second game will be in Prime Time, and, frankly, the KY / WI game is likely a higher draw than ours.

freshmanjs
03-29-2015, 07:41 PM
ESPN has it's usual accuracy standard. We play the 2nd game at about 6:20 PM on TBS.

nope, ESPN is right. we play the 1st game.

Indoor66
03-29-2015, 07:42 PM
Duke beat MSU earlier this season. Okafor had his first of many monster games.

But these are two different teams. Duke's picked it up on defense. Mich St has played much, much better of late. Do not overlook them.

I think Duke's in good shape to win, but they will need to keep Dawson off the boards and focus on stopping Travis Trice.

I like our chances. Our guards are superior to their guards and our bigs are better. Quinn will be Trice's worst nightmare.

hurleyfor3
03-29-2015, 07:49 PM
Espn was wrong. Our second-game streak continues. And it's on TBS.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25109286/ncaa-tournament-tv-schedule-tip-times-announcing-teams

gocanes0506
03-29-2015, 07:51 PM
The big matchups are Cook vs Trice and Winslow vs Valentine.

Let the big Oak go to work in this one.

FerryFor50
03-29-2015, 07:54 PM
The big matchups are Cook vs Trice and Winslow vs Valentine.

Let the big Oak go to work in this one.

I think Winslow takes Dawson. Matt Jones will get Valentine.

MChambers
03-29-2015, 07:55 PM
Duke's defense is now up to #17 in Pomeroy. Quite a move in four games.

Game is an issue in my household, since my son went to MSU for a year and my niece, who is living with us now, graduated from MSU.

pfrduke
03-29-2015, 07:56 PM
In the tournament, we've collectively held our opponents to 214 points on 247 possessions - .866 points per possession, against some good offenses (particularly the last two rounds - 109 on 123 possessions, for .886 points per possession). What a turnaround on the defensive end from earlier this season.

I've said this before and I'll say it again - we win or lose on our defense. We are undefeated this year when the opponent doesn't hit 70. If we continue to dedicate to the defensive end, good things will happen.

pfrduke
03-29-2015, 07:57 PM
Also....

Dear Charles Barkley,

Please pick Michigan State to win on Saturday. We have enjoyed your picks of Utah and Gonzaga the last 3 days.

With love,
Duke fans

subzero02
03-29-2015, 08:43 PM
We open as 5 point favorites over the Spartans.... sounds about right.

Troublemaker
03-29-2015, 08:46 PM
Espn was wrong. Our second-game streak continues. And it's on TBS.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25109286/ncaa-tournament-tv-schedule-tip-times-announcing-teams

Ironically, CBS Sports may have it wrong. I'm seeing Kentucky as the late game everywhere else.

AncientPsychicT
03-29-2015, 08:52 PM
Espn was wrong. Our second-game streak continues. And it's on TBS.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25109286/ncaa-tournament-tv-schedule-tip-times-announcing-teams

According to the official NCAA website, (http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1) ESPN was right. Duke-MSU at 6:09, UK-Badgers at 8:49.

EDIT: Also, if you compare when the article you linked was written to when this one, (http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/kentucky/2015/03/29/uk-wisconsin-final-four-tipoff-time-named/70637026/) this one, (http://www.businessinsider.com/final-four-odds-schedule-tv-times-2015-3) and this one (http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2015/03/29/final-four-2015-schedule-tip-off-times-kentucky-wisconsin-duke-michigan-state-battle-for-ncaa-championship/) were written, you'll find the CBSSports listing is somewhat obsolete.

jmck214
03-29-2015, 08:54 PM
Nantz said Kentucky would be the late game at the end of the game. Every final 4 game I've seen of Duke we were the late game. I am glad this time we are on at 6. I hate waiting around those extra 2 and a half hours

arnie
03-29-2015, 08:56 PM
According to the official NCAA website, (http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1) ESPN was right. Duke-MSU at 6:09, UK-Badgers at 8:49.

Early line has us at 4.5. Thought it might be a little higher. Ky 5 pt fav.

hurleyfor3
03-29-2015, 08:59 PM
CBS has our game as the early game on its own bracket page, but hasn't corrected the press release yet. I'd prefer to wait for an unequivocal word from cbs/tbs.

bleedingblue88
03-29-2015, 09:01 PM
Kentucky v. Wisconsin as the night game would make more sense. Two #1 seeds, history on the line.

AncientPsychicT
03-29-2015, 09:09 PM
CBS has our game as the early game on its own bracket page, but hasn't corrected the press release yet. I'd prefer to wait for an unequivocal word from cbs/tbs.

Dude, literally everyone but Matt Norlander in his original article for CBSSports is saying we're the early game. And as I just edited in my comment, Norlander was one of the first people to release an article announcing tip times. I mean, the NCAA's official site has us at 6, and so does CBS' bracket page. In all likelihood, this was just Norlander trying to get his article out the door AQAP, assuming that the game on the left side of the bracket would be the early matchup no matter what. On the off chance that Norlander is right and absolutely everyone else is wrong, I'll admit being wrong, but it is quite unlikely that I'm wrong.

superdave
03-29-2015, 09:12 PM
You can expect MSU to crash the boards and try to make this a hectic game. MSU guards especially like to crash. I think if we box out and make Tice work hard we should be in good shape.

One thing is for sure - Coach K will try to take away whatever he sees as his opponents biggest strength. That is Tice and Valentine.

MSU does not have the size to stop Okafor on the other end though. Duke needs to feed him to make up for these last two games. Use him like a running game to wear Sparty down and everything will open up.

NYBri
03-29-2015, 09:17 PM
Duke's defense is now up to #17 in Pomeroy. Quite a move in four games.

Game is an issue in my household, since my son went to MSU for a year and my niece, who is living with us now, graduated from MSU.

What's the issue? Go Duke!

superdave
03-29-2015, 09:20 PM
Duke's defense is now up to #17 in Pomeroy. Quite a move in four games.

Game is an issue in my household, since my son went to MSU for a year and my niece, who is living with us now, graduated from MSU.

Let them eat cake.

flyingdutchdevil
03-29-2015, 09:21 PM
Why?

Isn't CBS the go-to, especially for such big games?

Don't mean to hijack the discussion, but seriously?

-jk
03-29-2015, 09:22 PM
Why?

Isn't CBS the go-to, especially for such big games?

Don't mean to hijack the discussion, but seriously?

Business deal to keep ESPN out. Back and forth...

-jk

flyingdutchdevil
03-29-2015, 09:26 PM
Business deal to keep ESPN out. Back and forth...

-jk

Okay. Now this makes sense. Thanks -jk.

My concern is that - and I can't believe I'm admitting this - I'm on vacay during the FF (outside the US). Pretty sure the island gets US cable, just not sure on the level of channels they carry (and they would definitely carry CBS).

-jk
03-29-2015, 09:30 PM
Okay. Now this makes sense. Thanks -jk.

My concern is that - and I can't believe I'm admitting this - I'm on vacay during the FF (outside the US). Pretty sure the island gets US cable, just not sure on the level of channels they carry (and they would definitely carry CBS).

TBS is huge. Almost as big as CBS. Good chance you'll get it. Otherwise a good interweb connection?

-jk

subzero02
03-29-2015, 09:31 PM
Okay. Now this makes sense. Thanks -jk.

My concern is that - and I can't believe I'm admitting this - I'm on vacay during the FF (outside the US). Pretty sure the island gets US cable, just not sure on the level of channels they carry (and they would definitely carry CBS).

Can you find a hotel with wifi? You can always stream the game through cbs sports. You just have to watch shaq and charles in perpetual commercial loops.

flyingdutchdevil
03-29-2015, 09:37 PM
TBS is huge. Almost as big as CBS. Good chance you'll get it. Otherwise a good interweb connection?

-jk

THanks -jk. Would rather watch the game in a bar, but in the hotel room with beers and rum ain't so bad either.

gofurman
03-29-2015, 09:47 PM
Anyone else concerned a little about Justise's ankle? When he came back in that means it's ok... But when I saw Gonzaga make a drive at him (the kind he always makes rim to rim) and he didn't even leap at the guy... I was kinda worried. He always goes for those nasty blocks. And his later drives he seemed to get a little less elevation than normal. We all know how great he has been and has carried us in games. Any thoughts or knowledge here?? Thanks for your insight. I hope we are 100 pct for next week !

-jk
03-29-2015, 09:48 PM
Lots of time for PT? (fingers crossed!)

-jk

gofurman
03-29-2015, 09:57 PM
Lots of time for PT? (fingers crossed!)

-jk

PT? oh, physical therapy this week. Yup - hope he doesn't need it. Was interested that they said in the broadcast that his ankle had been twisted already -didn't know that. Were you guys aware of the prior ankle twist??

-jk
03-29-2015, 10:01 PM
PT? oh, physical therapy this week. Yup - hope he doesn't need it. Was interested that they said in the broadcast that his ankle had been twisted already -didn't know that. Were you guys aware of the prior ankle twist??

He's been banged up all over all year.

Doubt his rib has fully healed yet, either. (Warrior! Oof... But he wants it.)

-jk

Newton_14
03-29-2015, 10:05 PM
He's been banged up all over all year.

Doubt his rib has fully healed yet, either. (Warrior! Oof... But he wants it.)

-jk

He is the toughest Blue Devil since Singler for sure. Man I love watching this kid play.

FerryFor50
03-29-2015, 10:06 PM
PT? oh, physical therapy this week. Yup - hope he doesn't need it. Was interested that they said in the broadcast that his ankle had been twisted already -didn't know that. Were you guys aware of the prior ankle twist??

Prior ankle twist was in another game where he went up for a layup and it twisted on its own - no contact. Weird that he'd turn his own ankle twice in the same season.

Wahoo2000
03-29-2015, 10:11 PM
We open as 5 point favorites over the Spartans.... sounds about right.

Ugh. We were 5 point favorites as well. Hope it does you guys more good than it did us. Rooting for you. (50% due to ACC ties, and 50% hoping that Tyus plays his butt off and all three of your big frosh declare after the season)

subzero02
03-29-2015, 10:23 PM
PT? oh, physical therapy this week. Yup - hope he doesn't need it. Was interested that they said in the broadcast that his ankle had been twisted already -didn't know that. Were you guys aware of the prior ankle twist??

I hadn't heard anything before it was stated in the game... I suspected something might have been wrong when he didn't try to block Delon Wright's break away drive on Friday night.

gofurman
03-29-2015, 10:27 PM
He is the toughest Blue Devil since Singler for sure. Man I love watching this kid play.

Agree - TOUGH. BUt kids that hop like that NEED their ankles to be fully healthy .. Duke needs Winslow to be fully healthy so he can rise up and show that awesome athleticism. He is so key to Duke. As many have said, he shoulda been the MOP Rim2rim runner extrordonaire

Mike Corey
03-29-2015, 10:43 PM
Bottle up Trice, who has been sensational. Keep MSU off the glass. Attack the basket and move well without the ball.

And stay healthy.

Utley
03-29-2015, 11:12 PM
We'll get Nantz, Raff and Grant again too I expect. Undefeated with them - including Grant covering our home ND thrashing

blazindw
03-29-2015, 11:28 PM
Also, they are doing team-specific streams as well. The main (neutral) broadcast will be on TBS. The Duke team stream will be on TNT, while Michigan State's will be on TruTV. For the 2nd game, it's main broadcast on TBS, Kentucky's stream on TNT and Wisconsin's stream on TruTV.

Furniture
03-29-2015, 11:35 PM
Ok you knowledgable people. Please explain this...
http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSPythag
How does UNC have a stronger SOS than Duke?

Bluedog
03-29-2015, 11:37 PM
Any predictions on who they'll tap for the team stream? A lot of Dukies are broadcasters, but they're so used to being neutral. Bob Harris would be awesome, but he's got the radio to call the game for.

pfrduke
03-29-2015, 11:46 PM
Ok you knowledgable people. Please explain this...
http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSPythag
How does UNC have a stronger SOS than Duke?

They played Duke twice while we played UNC twice ;)

MarkD83
03-29-2015, 11:47 PM
Ok you knowledgable people. Please explain this...
http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSPythag
How does UNC have a stronger SOS than Duke?

That's easy. UNC had to play Duke twice and Duke had to play UNC twice. (pfrduke beat me to the answer)

subzero02
03-29-2015, 11:48 PM
Also, they are doing team-specific streams as well. The main (neutral) broadcast will be on TBS. The Duke team stream will be on TNT, while Michigan State's will be on TruTV. For the 2nd game, it's main broadcast on TBS, Kentucky's stream on TNT and Wisconsin's stream on TruTV.

I can't wait to see what the team specific streams will feature... Hopefully some team specific stats and maybe a Winslow cam...

Dev11
03-29-2015, 11:59 PM
Any predictions on who they'll tap for the team stream? A lot of Dukies are broadcasters, but they're so used to being neutral. Bob Harris would be awesome, but he's got the radio to call the game for.

Alaa tweeted earlier that he's part of the Duke team. He seemed excited that he'll be allowed to openly gush on television about his own program. It'll feel like being any of the Heels one sees talking about basketball.

hurleyfor3
03-30-2015, 12:05 AM
Any predictions on who they'll tap for the team stream?

They'll have 20 people reading out DBR Chat in real time.

jipops
03-30-2015, 12:15 AM
Anyone else concerned a little about Justise's ankle? When he came back in that means it's ok... But when I saw Gonzaga make a drive at him (the kind he always makes rim to rim) and he didn't even leap at the guy... I was kinda worried. He always goes for those nasty blocks. And his later drives he seemed to get a little less elevation than normal. We all know how great he has been and has carried us in games. Any thoughts or knowledge here?? Thanks for your insight. I hope we are 100 pct for next week !

I'm sure unc will give us constant alarmist yet vague updates as the weekend approaches.

NYBri
03-30-2015, 12:53 AM
They'll have 20 people reading out DBR Chat in real time.

Wins the internet.

uh_no
03-30-2015, 12:58 AM
it's a rematch game (and not a re-rematch). therefore we win by 30 :)

JK.

Duke had a far tougher road than MSU to get to indy, and dealt with it far gracefully. MSU has won their games by:

7
6
4
6(OT)

relative to duke's
29
19
6
14

so it's clear duke is the more efficient team, and that's quite clear from kenpom.

Fortunately their lineups are pretty vanilla:
1) Trice
2) forbes/nairn
3)valentine/ellis
4)dawson/clark
5)schilling/costello

They could give us trouble if they were to play twin towers: costello and schilling both at 6'9 240+, but they literally never play the two together. phew. True to MSU form, both are good rebounders, though costello is the far better scorer and blocker. Watching how the game ebbs and flows with these two in the game will be certainly interesting to watch. Will attempt to match plumlee to one of the two? anyway, would be excellent if we could get one of the two in foul trouble.

The second most interesting thing is the nairn/forbes split, as there's a 5" size difference between the two. nairn is tiny at 5'10. He isn't particularly highly ranked in anything, and doesn't score. averaging just over 2 points in 20 minutes a game. He's not a good shooter (30% from 3), not a good rebounder, mediocre assist numbers, and a terrible free throw shooter. Compare that to forbes...who is taller, a superb shooter, decent rebounder. It seems like something we ought to be able to abuse when nairn is in over forbes...we ought to have a size advantage on offense, and he's a non factor on offense...which ought to allow us to focus on other guys.

marvin clark gets only 25% of the time at the 4, is a freshman. He has a couple decent games, but seems good for a couple buckets and boards in his limited minutes. Both of these guys are 6'6 225, so we ought to have a massive size advantage when amile is in, and I can't imagine either is as athletic as winslow.

Valentine plays most of the minutes at SF ant is a real threat. great shooter, matt will have his hands full sticking with him.

I think a MSU victory looks like valentine going for a bunch of points along with trice and forbes providing enough of a threat to allow trice to carve us up. They're going to have to put up points, since I don't think they have the defense to hold us back. Jah gets in foul trouble, mitigating our size advantage down low, and MSU's guards stick to tyus/quinn like nappier/boatright did in the tournament last year. As a classic MSU team, they get more opportunities by beating us on the boards.

I think a Duke victory looks like: pretty much anything else. They realize they can't stop jahlil, they have no answer for justice, and maybe or maybe not we get some threes to fall.

Kenpom puts it at 73-68, 70%. I think it'll be closer to 77-68, 75%.

Get healthy. Go green??? NO! GO BLUE!!!

Edouble
03-30-2015, 01:43 AM
Agree - TOUGH. BUt kids that hop like that NEED their ankles to be fully healthy .. Duke needs Winslow to be fully healthy so he can rise up and show that awesome athleticism. He is so key to Duke. As many have said, he shoulda been the MOP Rim2rim runner extrordonaire

I'll be checking Leah Frazier Dixon of Bring the Pain Sports's Twitter feed early and often this week. She's sure to have the first reports of when Justise is cleared to play.

ice-9
03-30-2015, 04:29 AM
Duke had a far tougher road than MSU to get to indy, and dealt with it far gracefully. MSU has won their games by:

7
6
4
6(OT)

They did beat UVA, Oklahoma and Louisville -- the 2, 3 and 4 seed of their bracket. That's no cake walk.

If you threw the season out and looked only at this tournament's results, Michigan St would be deemed an elite team on the basis of those wins. I'd argue that collection of wins is better than Duke's over SDSU, Utah and Gonzaga, margin notwithstanding.

My impression from our first game is that we had more talent but that Michigan St had more toughness, grit and experience. Thankfully, we shot well enough (54% from the field, 50% on 3-point shots) to overcome that. What if we had shot closer to the mean? What if the Spartans had done better than 25% on 3-point shots? The game would have been really close. We could've lost.

The rematch is going to be an all out war. This Michigan St team is much better than the one we played early in the season, and thoroughly battle tested. They remind me of our 2010 team in terms of togetherness and resolve. This next game will come down to who has more focus, energy and will power.

70% to 75% win probability is just too generous.

ice-9
03-30-2015, 06:43 AM
Another thing to keep in mind -- Indianapolis is Big 10 country and everyone loves the Spartans.

The Michigan St game might feel more like a road game.

dukelifer
03-30-2015, 07:06 AM
Another thing to keep in mind -- Indianapolis is Big 10 country and everyone loves the Spartans.

The Michigan St game might feel more like a road game.

A bit like 2010 when 3/4 of the fans there were rooting for Butler on Monday Night. The boys actually like to play in hostile arenas.

dukelifer
03-30-2015, 07:08 AM
They did beat UVA, Oklahoma and Louisville -- the 2, 3 and 4 seed of their bracket. That's no cake walk.

If you threw the season out and looked only at this tournament's results, Michigan St would be deemed an elite team on the basis of those wins. I'd argue that collection of wins is better than Duke's over SDSU, Utah and Gonzaga, margin notwithstanding.

My impression from our first game is that we had more talent but that Michigan St had more toughness, grit and experience. Thankfully, we shot well enough (54% from the field, 50% on 3-point shots) to overcome that. What if we had shot closer to the mean? What if the Spartans had done better than 25% on 3-point shots? The game would have been really close. We could've lost.

The rematch is going to be an all out war. This Michigan St team is much better than the one we played early in the season, and thoroughly battle tested. They remind me of our 2010 team in terms of togetherness and resolve. This next game will come down to who has more focus, energy and will power.

70% to 75% win probability is just too generous.
They also probably beat Wisconsin in the Big10 tourney if not for a blown out of bounds call. This team is playing very loose and free. They can beat anyone.

MarkD83
03-30-2015, 07:23 AM
I promised myself I would enjoy the win against the Zags until about Thursday, but thought I should add my superstitious (good karma) sarcastic comment early.

We are doomed because MSU has a coach that has gone to 7 Final Fours and has won a National Championship and his current team just beat UVA and Louisville on neutral courts.
Oh wait... we have a coach that has been to 12 (unbelievable) Final Fours and has won 4 National Championships and our current team has beaten UVA and Louisville both on the road.

OK maybe I will try again later in the week to post a sarcastic we are doomed comment.

BTW while watching and listening to Coach K in the press conferences he does not look like a coach who is 68 and would retire anytime soon. As I watched Coach K, all of those discussions about how USA basketball would hurt Coach K/Duke and who Coach K's successor should be sounded pretty silly.

On another note while taping the game I let it go for some extra time so as to not miss any possible post-game celebration and got all of 60 mins on the tape. There was a great segment about a promising new cancer immuno-therapy that is being championed by doctors at Duke. I wonder if their research is funded by the Jimmy V foundation. It would be really cool if it was.

devildeac
03-30-2015, 07:31 AM
He's been banged up all over all year.

Doubt his rib has fully healed yet, either. (Warrior! Oof... But he wants it.)

-jk

A couple weeks ago, the Raleigh News and Observer reported that in addition to the rib injury (fracture), he sustained a separated shoulder sometime earlier in the season, too. Warrior is right!

MChambers
03-30-2015, 08:50 AM
marvin clark gets only 25% of the time at the 4, is a freshman. He has a couple decent games, but seems good for a couple buckets and boards in his limited minutes. Both of these guys are 6'6 225, so we ought to have a massive size advantage when amile is in, and I can't imagine either is as athletic as winslow.
Assume you mean Dawson and Clark when you say both these guys. Dawson is as athletic as Winslow, and probably stronger. The good news is that he is not as skilled, is not much of a shooter, and makes boneheaded plays more than you would expect. If he could shoot 3s, he'd be a lottery pick. If Dawson gets in foul trouble, we'll have a big edge.

Clark seems to live in Izzo's doghouse, but he's a strong guy, too.

Channing
03-30-2015, 08:57 AM
When Duke was in Indy’s land,
Go Blue Devils Go!
So Many Twisted Ankles They Could Barely Stand,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Tyus,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Nor Eagles Nor Aztecs Were Our Foil,
Go Blue Devils Go!
Nor Utes Nor Zags Could Our Season Spoil,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Quinn,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

We Waited All Season To See This Tough D,
Go Blue Devils Go!
And When We Needed It, Matt Made Another Three,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Justise,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Coach K Has This Team In Tip-Top Form,
Go blue Devils Go!
I Hope To See Magic Looking Forlorn,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Jahlil,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Our Foes Shall Not Before Us Stand,
Go Blue Devils Go!
One More Ring And Its One For Each Finger On The Hand!
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go Down Amile,
Do Down Marshall,
Go Down Matt,
Go Down Greyson
Go Down Sean,
Go Down Nick,
GO DOWN DEVILS,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!
(Rip 'em up, Tear 'em up, Give 'em hell, Duke!)

sagegrouse
03-30-2015, 09:21 AM
Dude, literally everyone but Matt Norlander in his original article for CBSSports is saying we're the early game. And as I just edited in my comment, Norlander was one of the first people to release an article announcing tip times. I mean, the NCAA's official site has us at 6, and so does CBS' bracket page. In all likelihood, this was just Norlander trying to get his article out the door AQAP, assuming that the game on the left side of the bracket would be the early matchup no matter what. On the off chance that Norlander is right and absolutely everyone else is wrong, I'll admit being wrong, but it is quite unlikely that I'm wrong.

The key, because of travel plans, is that the first game starts at 6:09 PM. I take that as settled. Kentucky-Wisconsin as the second game makes sense and gives us the unexpected possibility of a couple of hours extra rest.

Here's the clip from CBS:


Final Four

SATURDAY

6:09, TBS: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 7 Michigan State (Jim Nantz/Grant Hill/Bill Raftery/Tracy Wolfson)

Approx. 8:49 TBS: No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky (Jim Nantz/Grant Hill/Bill Raftery/Tracy Wolfson)

MChambers
03-30-2015, 09:29 AM
I'm glad we've got the first game. Wonder when that last happened? 1990, maybe?

77devil
03-30-2015, 09:30 AM
Alaa tweeted earlier that he's part of the Duke team. He seemed excited that he'll be allowed to openly gush on television about his own program. It'll feel like being any of the Heels one sees talking about basketball.

That will be a nice change of pace. Grant's been channeling Jay, although his inner Duke started to emerge a little toward the end of the game.

bluedev_92
03-30-2015, 09:44 AM
Also....

Dear Charles Barkley,

Please pick Michigan State to win on Saturday. We have enjoyed your picks of Utah and Gonzaga the last 3 days.

With love,
Duke fans

Yes - I too hope that Barles Charkley keeps picking against us! Have to mention the string of commercials - very funny - especially like the one where they are driving "in the Annapolis"

NashvilleDevil
03-30-2015, 09:49 AM
I'm glad we've got the first game. Wonder when that last happened? 1990, maybe?

I think it was the 89 FF with Seton Hall. I remember staying up late to watch Illinois/Michigan.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-30-2015, 10:30 AM
I'm guessing that - while it's nice and all that we beat Sparty earlier this season - the only relevant similarities between that game and this one will be that names of the players involved.

K v. Izzo is always a fun chess match.

DavidBenAkiva
03-30-2015, 10:35 AM
Oh man I am so pumped to see this team get to the Final Four! I've provided scouting breakdowns of Utah and Gonzaga that got positive reviews. I'll do a more in-depth review of MSU, but here are some important digits for now.


1-0: Duke played MSU in late November during the Champions Classic (which featured three of the four Final Four teams) and beat MSU 81-71.
17: Duke's defensive efficiency has improved dramatically in this tournament. Prior to the tourney, Duke was about 60th in the nation in points per possession according to Ken Pomeroy's widely cited model. Today, Duke has moved all the way to 17th.
<60: Speaking of defense, Duke has limited its opponents to under 60 in all four tournament games this year, the last two against top-10 offenses. Raise your hand if you saw that coming!
6'9": Michigan State's tallest players - Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello, are both 6'9" tall. This height and size disparity allowed Jahlil Okafor to have his first big game on a national stage. I imagine after seeing two teams with multiple high-level bigs, Okafor is looking forward to dominating the paint again.
35-25: MSU's rebouding margin in the game in November over Duke. The team - especially Justise Winslow - has improved its rebouding since then. Keeping MSU off of the glass will pay dividends.
69%: Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model predicts Duke has a 69% chance of winning against MSU. This is the highest Duke's chances have been since facing San Diego State. Duke is a heavy favorite to reach the National Title game on Monday, April 6th.


Duke will have a lot of advantages in this game, including offensive efficiency, free throw shooting, defensive efficiency, and size. Also, Coach K has done very well against Tom Izzo throughout their Hall of Fame careers. That being said, it's the Final Four. Anything can happen and both coaches have a week to prepare. It should be an intense and gritty game. I sure hope we see the best our of Duke!

On a side note, my girlfriend's parents will be in town for Passover. Did I mention they both met at Michigan State? I'll have to keep it classy watching this game over matzoh!

szstark
03-30-2015, 10:36 AM
When Duke was in Indy’s land,
Go Blue Devils Go!
So Many Twisted Ankles They Could Barely Stand,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Tyus,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Nor Eagles Nor Aztecs Were Our Foil,
Go Blue Devils Go!
Nor Utes Nor Zags Could Our Season Spoil,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Quinn,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

We Waited All Season To See This Tough D,
Go Blue Devils Go!
And When We Needed It, Matt Made Another Three,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Justise,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Coach K Has This Team In Tip-Top Form,
Go blue Devils Go!
I Hope To See Magic Looking Forlorn,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Jahlil,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Our Foes Shall Not Before Us Stand,
Go Blue Devils Go!
One More Ring And Its One For Each Finger On The Hand!
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go Down Amile,
Do Down Marshall,
Go Down Matt,
Go Down Greyson
Go Down Sean,
Go Down Nick,
GO DOWN DEVILS,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!
(Rip 'em up, Tear 'em up, Give 'em hell, Duke!)

Beautiful, just beautiful. :)

77devil
03-30-2015, 10:42 AM
Dave Briggs of NBC sporting the Duke socks on Squawk Box this morning. Apparently he's a big Duke fan but I'm unaware of any connection per se.

4932

Bluedog
03-30-2015, 10:54 AM
Another thing to keep in mind -- Indianapolis is Big 10 country and everyone loves the Spartans.

The Michigan St game might feel more like a road game.


A bit like 2010 when 3/4 of the fans there were rooting for Butler on Monday Night. The boys actually like to play in hostile arenas.

The good thing about playing in a football stadium is that while our fans will be seriously outnumbered, on the court it just doesn't have the same hostile environment feel that a college basketball stadium has because the vast majority of the fans are so far away and the sound just kinda dissipates. So, it doesn't have quite the "road game" feel to it as it could otherwise. The setup at NRG looked ridiculous with the closest fans in the endzones (notwithstanding the student body/pep band) looking like they were 500+ feet away. I think large stadiums counteract the home court effect, which is good for us. We should be fine. Although I'll say the game against Louisville was quite hostile in that same stadium, but the configuration was different since it was a Regional Finals and not a Final Four (90%+ of the fans were supporting Louisville). Against Butler, it was certainly loud towards the end for Butler, but not anything like the players experiences @UVa, @ND, etc. And Butler fans just have a lot more class/are nicer/less vulgar than Louisville's fan base -- my own opinion after having attended both those games -- so that probably played into it too.

Kedsy
03-30-2015, 11:16 AM
If you threw the season out and looked only at this tournament's results, Michigan St would be deemed an elite team on the basis of those wins. I'd argue that collection of wins is better than Duke's over SDSU, Utah and Gonzaga, margin notwithstanding.

I agree the three-game comparison is similar. According to pre-tourney Pomeroy, Michigan State played the #4, #9, and #18 teams in the country (in that order). Duke played #27, #8, and #6, in that order. But I'd argue you can't ignore the margins. The fact that Duke convincingly beat their opponents while Michigan State squeaked by theirs means Duke has had a more impressive run (so far). At least it does to me.

devildeac
03-30-2015, 11:51 AM
Not quite there yet, but this is amusing:

https://twitter.com/tarheelblog/status/582324715378905089?s=09


At least those morons are thinking/planning ahead:rolleyes:.

Duke95
03-30-2015, 11:57 AM
Just in case anyone has forgotten.

MSU lost by 7 AT Wisconsin. Then they took Wisconsin to OT in the conference tourney.
They beat #5 Maryland.
They beat #2 seed UVa.
They beat Louisville.

This is a very very strong team.

Duke95
03-30-2015, 11:58 AM
Not quite there yet, but this is amusing:

https://twitter.com/tarheelblog/status/582324715378905089?s=09


At least those morons are thinking/planning ahead:rolleyes:.

There's a thread on Inbred Carolina claiming that their team was built for a run at the 2016 title.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-30-2015, 12:19 PM
There's a thread on Inbred Carolina claiming that their team was built for a run at the 2016 title.

Or built to be the best team with a post-season ban in recent history.

DavidBenAkiva
03-30-2015, 12:38 PM
The good thing about playing in a football stadium is that while our fans will be seriously outnumbered, on the court it just doesn't have the same hostile environment feel that a college basketball stadium has because the vast majority of the fans are so far away and the sound just kinda dissipates. So, it doesn't have quite the "road game" feel to it as it could otherwise. The setup at NRG looked ridiculous with the closest fans in the endzones (notwithstanding the student body/pep band) looking like they were 500+ feet away. I think large stadiums counteract the home court effect, which is good for us. We should be fine. Although I'll say the game against Louisville was quite hostile in that same stadium, but the configuration was different since it was a Regional Finals and not a Final Four (90%+ of the fans were supporting Louisville). Against Butler, it was certainly loud towards the end for Butler, but not anything like the players experiences @UVa, @ND, etc. And Butler fans just have a lot more class/are nicer/less vulgar than Louisville's fan base -- my own opinion after having attended both those games -- so that probably played into it too.

My dad, brother, and I went to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in 2013 for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. We saw Duke-MSU on Friday night and then Duke-Louisville (the Kevin Ware leg injury game) on Sunday. It was an electric atmosphere and certainly had A LOT of Louisville and MSU fans. Duke fans had a significant presence but were seriously outnumbered by the Cardinal fans in particular. It made sense as Louisville is only about 2 hours from Indianapolis while Lansing is a short 3-4 hour drive. All those MSU alums in Chicago are only 3 hours away, too. I found the Louisville fans, even during the Elite 8 game, to be incredibly fun and friendly. We often said things like 'Hey, we both hate Kentucky!'

Kentucky, MSU, and Wisconsin should all have a lot of fans at the Final Four this year. The Kentucky fanbase, located just south of Indiana, will mostly likely have the largest turnout. I expect Wisconsin and MSU to have many there as well. I'll be shocked if Duke isn't booed at almost every opportunity. Of all the fan bases, the MSU fans would have been somewhat sympathetic as there seems to be a healthy dose of respect between the two programs. Since Duke and MSU will be playing each other, however, that goes out the window.

This Duke team has thrived in hostile environments before. The plus side of it all is that Lucas Oil Stadium will be electric but not nearly as hostile to Duke as was the Kohl Center, Dean Dome, or JPJ Arena. At least there will be several thousand Duke fans there. My parents went to the Final Four in 2010. I sure hope we can get tickets this year!!!

DukeDevil
03-30-2015, 12:45 PM
I'll be checking Leah Frazier Dixon of Bring the Pain Sports's Twitter feed early and often this week. She's sure to have the first reports of when Justise is cleared to play.

I saw what you did there. Maybe she was just being prophetic and said Tyus instead of Justise by mistake.

Duvall
03-30-2015, 12:48 PM
This Duke team has thrived in hostile environments before. The plus side of it all is that Lucas Oil Stadium will be electric but not nearly as hostile to Duke as was the Kohl Center, Dean Dome, or JPJ Arena.

With 40,000 Kentucky fans? I highly doubt that.

Danke Shane
03-30-2015, 12:54 PM
Yeah, playing in the opening game (aka when two big ten schools are still alive) + Kentucky's fan base waiting for their game, it's going to be about as anti-Duke a crowd as possible.

Bluedog
03-30-2015, 01:03 PM
With 40,000 Kentucky fans? I highly doubt that.


Yeah, playing in the opening game (aka when two big ten schools are still alive) + Kentucky's fan base waiting for their game, it's going to be about as anti-Duke a crowd as possible.

It will be very anti-Duke, but not as hostile to the players simply because the court is so far removed. At the Kohl Center, JPJ Arena, or any other college stadium, a large percentage of fans are much closer. The Elite 8 vs. Louisville a few years back was more hostile than I'm expecting this Final Four because the config there was having the court across the endzone and then having those black drapes up to halve the stadium (and hopefully we'll be more well represented than we were for that game....). That made it a more "intimate" feel. In the Final Four, the court is in the middle of the field and the crowd is spread out, dissipating some noise/intimacy. Still not expecting a warm welcoming, though, and need to prepare for animosity, but I think this team is ready!

hurleyfor3
03-30-2015, 01:05 PM
Um, people? 2010 championship? Home game for Butler. We've done it before.

Duke95
03-30-2015, 01:08 PM
Guys, Duke and Kentucky ARE NOT playing each other Saturday.

Repeat, ARE NOT.

Duvall
03-30-2015, 01:08 PM
Um, people? 2010 championship? Home game for Butler. We've done it before.

Butler fans are sane.

MChambers
03-30-2015, 01:10 PM
Butler fans are sane.
And probably more sober.

Bluedog
03-30-2015, 01:12 PM
I've heard some Duke people actually saying they are going to be cheering for UK because they want to be the ones to crush their season and dreams (assuming we win the first game). (For the record, I will be cheering hardcore for Wisconsin). By the same line of logic, particularly since UK fans think their team is unstoppable, would some UK fans actually be cheering for Duke because they hate us so much and want to smash us in the finals? (And they think that would happen easily). I'm probably being overly optimistic, but UK fans aren't rationale. I could see some of them going that way...

Reilly
03-30-2015, 01:12 PM
Guys, Duke and Kentucky ARE NOT playing each other Saturday.

Repeat, ARE NOT.

Right. Which allows the Kentucky fans to be in full-throated glory jeering Duke for the entirety of Duke's game, without having to worry about watching or rooting for their own team.

DBFAN
03-30-2015, 01:20 PM
I just wish that somehow someway that the Universe could line up, and make some sense out of the amount of stupidity in the media, esp ESPN. They had sev folks picking Utah to upset us, then it was pretty much irrefutable that Gonzaga was gonna beat us. Now today's panel of experts all agree that Wisc has the best chance to beat UK. their reasoning is that they present matchup prob, which is why they handled AZ. I just can't comprehend how ESPN and other guys who know we did pretty good in Madison, but refuse to use actual gameplay as reasoning. They said all year our D couldn't cut it, yet we may very well be playing the best D of the four teams left. Yet they just refuse to acknowledge it. On top of that their "power index" says we have less of a chance to win it all than Wisc. I mean I just don't even know how to finish this sentence. I'm almost sure if Duke won it all they would still finish ranked #3 behind UK and Wisc. Ok I'm getting off my soapbox

Olympic Fan
03-30-2015, 01:25 PM
Guys, of all the things to worry about, a hostile crowd is at the bottom of the list.

Yes, I'm sure the crowd will b very anti-Duke. Big deal. If you've seen a Final Four game at that place, the crowd is so removed that all the hate just comes through as noise. And the players love playing in a loud, electric arena.

Yes, the Butler crowd was very hostile in 2010. but even that was nothing compared to the Baylor crowd in Houston that year.

Michigan Stat might be a problem Saturday (although I'm loving K's 8-1 record against Izzo), but the Kentucky fans in the stands won't be.

Besides, this is a team that has won at Virginia, at Wisconsin, at Louisville, at Syracuse (with 35,000 people in the Dome) and at North Carolina. I think they can handle a hostile crowd.

subzero02
03-30-2015, 01:34 PM
I just wish that somehow someway that the Universe could line up, and make some sense out of the amount of stupidity in the media, esp ESPN. They had sev folks picking Utah to upset us, then it was pretty much irrefutable that Gonzaga was gonna beat us. Now today's panel of experts all agree that Wisc has the best chance to beat UK. their reasoning is that they present matchup prob, which is why they handled AZ. I just can't comprehend how ESPN and other guys who know we did pretty good in Madison, but refuse to use actual gameplay as reasoning. They said all year our D couldn't cut it, yet we may very well be playing the best D of the four teams left. Yet they just refuse to acknowledge it. On top of that their "power index" says we have less of a chance to win it all than Wisc. I mean I just don't even know how to finish this sentence. I'm almost sure if Duke won it all they would still finish ranked #3 behind UK and Wisc. Ok I'm getting off my soapbox

I agree. No one wants to pick us. I call it the "BBE"... The Bilas Bias Effect. It's us against the world, and I like our chances. Let's give the Spartans a taste of our rapidly improving defense. Okafor should be able to return to form offensively. He knows how their post defenders like to play.

DavidBenAkiva
03-30-2015, 01:36 PM
It will be very anti-Duke, but not as hostile to the players simply because the court is so far removed. At the Kohl Center, JPJ Arena, or any other college stadium, a large percentage of fans are much closer. The Elite 8 vs. Louisville a few years back was more hostile than I'm expecting this Final Four because the config there was having the court across the endzone and then having those black drapes up to halve the stadium (and hopefully we'll be more well represented than we were for that game....). That made it a more "intimate" feel. In the Final Four, the court is in the middle of the field and the crowd is spread out, dissipating some noise/intimacy. Still not expecting a warm welcoming, though, and need to prepare for animosity, but I think this team is ready!

Here's a shot from the 2010 National Championship game. Frankly, the fans will be a lot closer to the action than they were at NRG Stadium over the weekend. Then again, I doubt the front row occupants could be described as "rabid." There's a few rows of press right up front.

4935

gus
03-30-2015, 01:39 PM
Guys, Duke and Kentucky ARE NOT playing each other Saturday.

Repeat, ARE NOT.

I've never been to a final four game, so perhaps I'm mistaken. But I think people are assuming that Kentucky fans will be there because the tickets are for both games.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-30-2015, 01:41 PM
I agree the whole crowd will be pulling for Mich St. in the first game. That's fine our guys are used to it, and it shouldn't hurt us any. However, I am actually hoping if we win we get to play Kentucky, then the remaining non UK fans may come to our side. Surely a lot of America will be rooting for Duke to beat the undefeated monster that Cal has created. We may be one of the most hated programs in College basketball but remember we are also one of the most loved.

I get tired of playing against Michigan State all the time. I feel like we play them once or twice a year every year now. They will have the revenge factor on their side if anybody remembers the 2nd or 3rd game of the season. We just need to control Trice and dominate the inside and we are good to go. I look for Jah to have a big game again. I am just so happy to be able to watch Duke in the Final Four again, its a ton of fun.

Native
03-30-2015, 01:52 PM
Butler fans are sane.

Yeah, I'm a paragon of sanity, alright.

hurleyfor3
03-30-2015, 02:04 PM
Yeah, I'm a paragon of sanity, alright.

Yeah, I'm amused a fanbase known as "Cameron Crazies" is worried about something they have so little control over.

If it stops you from going, it's your loss.

Reilly
03-30-2015, 02:19 PM
Dane Fife (Indiana 2002) is a MichSt assistant -- another reason to beat them.

budwom
03-30-2015, 02:19 PM
I don't worry about the MSU matchups as much as the unrelenting MSU offensive rebounding. I think we have the better team, but playing MSU
is like playing in six inches of mud, always a tough slog.

As for Kentucky: will they be rooting for Duke to lose (as one might expect) vs MSU or would they prefer to polish off Duke themselves on Monday?
There's a real dilemma for them...

hurleyfor3
03-30-2015, 02:21 PM
As for Kentucky: will they be rooting for Duke to lose (as one might expect) vs MSU or would they prefer to polish off Duke themselves on Monday?

Hint: They don't go around wearing "I Still Hate Mateen Cleaves" T-shirts.

Kedsy
03-30-2015, 02:40 PM
I've never been to a final four game, so perhaps I'm mistaken. But I think people are assuming that Kentucky fans will be there because the tickets are for both games.

Yes, if you buy a ticket book you get one ticket for Saturday and one ticket for Monday. It's not multiple sessions like the ACC tournament.

rifraf
03-30-2015, 02:41 PM
Yes, if you buy a ticket book you get one ticket for Saturday and one ticket for Monday. It's not multiple sessions like the ACC tournament.

If you buy on the secondary market, you can buy just for Saturday's sessions and NOT the Championship game. I know you explicitly said ticket book, but just so that people don't make any mistakes if they shop on places like stubhub. It took me a few minutes to figure it out last night.

jimsumner
03-30-2015, 02:52 PM
Just got this email from Iron Dukes.

"Due to unprecedented high demand and a smaller NCAA ticket allotment, Duke has sold out of 2015 Final Four tickets. Here you will find a link to the official NCAA Final Four Ticket Exchange as a way to access tickets."

So, there will be some Duke fans in Indy.

Duke95
03-30-2015, 03:15 PM
The presence of a very partisan crowd didn't save UNC, Wisconsin, Virginia, Syracuse, or Louisville from a butt-kicking at the hands of our Blue Devils.

Apparently, the other word for "butt" isn't allowed here.

wilson
03-30-2015, 03:38 PM
Apparently, the other word for "butt" isn't allowed here.You're a real wanker for saying that.

Duke95
03-30-2015, 03:46 PM
You're a real wanker for saying that.

LOL.

weezie
03-30-2015, 04:11 PM
Guys, of all the things to worry about, a hostile crowd is at the bottom of the list.

Yes, I'm sure the crowd will b very anti-Duke. Big deal...

Right! I remember Jay Williams before the tar-hole game recounting how the Devils absolutely LOVE the boos that rain down whenever the team take the court.

Remember, it takes special guys to play for Duke.

Kedsy
03-30-2015, 04:40 PM
If you buy on the secondary market, you can buy just for Saturday's sessions and NOT the Championship game. I know you explicitly said ticket book, but just so that people don't make any mistakes if they shop on places like stubhub. It took me a few minutes to figure it out last night.

Yes, that's true. I know someone years ago who was fooled, thought he was buying a book and ended up with Saturday tickets but not Monday.

But I was responding to someone asking if there are separate tickets for the first Saturday game and the second Saturday game, and the answer is there aren't, there's just one ticket for the double-header.

HCheek37
03-30-2015, 05:08 PM
Some information starting to seep in:

Transcript from today's Final Four coaches conf call:
http://asaptext.com/marchmadness/media/5_FinalFour/

Duke Open Practice: 1 - 1:50pm on Friday

Duke Ticket Allotment: 3,250 + player guest/families (Sections TBA but probably 112 or 114 - benches are on that side of the stadium)

Duke Student Ticket Allotment: 700

Duke Pregame Party: The Crane Bay, Saturday, 2:30-4:30 before the game

CR9
03-30-2015, 05:45 PM
Just in case anyone has forgotten.

MSU lost by 7 AT Wisconsin. Then they took Wisconsin to OT in the conference tourney.
They beat #5 Maryland.
They beat #2 seed UVa.
They beat Louisville.

This is a very very strong team.

They were getting waxed by Wisconsin for most of the game. Wiscy were up 20 with no problem then played stall ball. MSU did what MSU does and that's pad their stats. Have done is every game against Duke that I can remember.

flyingdutchdevil
03-30-2015, 05:48 PM
They were getting waxed by Wisconsin for most of the game. Wiscy were up 20 with no problem then played stall ball. MSU did what MSU does and that's pad their stats. Have done is every game against Duke that I can remember.

So instead of just laying down and dying, MSU fought back hard? Yeah, that's really pathetic...

1 24 90
03-30-2015, 06:37 PM
http://www.cbssportsnetwork.com/schedule/cbssn
Some information starting to seep in:

Transcript from today's Final Four coaches conf call:
http://asaptext.com/marchmadness/media/5_FinalFour/

Duke Open Practice: 1 - 1:50pm on Friday

Duke Ticket Allotment: 3,250 + player guest/families (Sections TBA but probably 112 or 114 - benches are on that side of the stadium)

Duke Student Ticket Allotment: 700

Duke Pregame Party: The Crane Bay, Saturday, 2:30-4:30 before the game

The CBS Sports Network has a show from the final four starting at noon on Friday. I believe they will be showing the live practices during this time.

uh_no
03-30-2015, 06:58 PM
Some information starting to seep in:

Transcript from today's Final Four coaches conf call:
http://asaptext.com/marchmadness/media/5_FinalFour/

Duke Open Practice: 1 - 1:50pm on Friday

Duke Ticket Allotment: 3,250 + player guest/families (Sections TBA but probably 112 or 114 - benches are on that side of the stadium)

Duke Student Ticket Allotment: 700

Duke Pregame Party: The Crane Bay, Saturday, 2:30-4:30 before the game

they said school allotment was "down"

any idea what the allotment has been in past years?

brevity
03-30-2015, 07:09 PM
Hint: They don't go around wearing "I Still Hate Mateen Cleaves" T-shirts.

Duke fans should counteract Kentucky's hatred with genuine affection. Can anyone make "I Still Like Gimel Martinez (http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/Players/Martinez_Gimel.html)" T-shirts to wear on Saturday?

mr. synellinden
03-30-2015, 07:17 PM
Duke fans should counteract Kentucky's hatred with genuine affection. Can anyone make "I Still Like Gimel Martinez (http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/Players/Martinez_Gimel.html)" T-shirts to wear on Saturday?

Love this idea. I still love Sean Woods. Or I still love the Unforgettables.

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-30-2015, 07:30 PM
Or... Where's Richie Farmer?

DavidBenAkiva
03-30-2015, 07:44 PM
The obvious thing when looking at this Duke-MSU matchup is to notice the mismatches between the two teams.

The options down low are ok where Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling are both 6'9" with solid builds. They also have several guys in the 6'5"-6'6" range between the very strong and experienced Branden Dawson and combo wing/forwards Denzel Valentine and freshman Marvin Clark Jr.

On the perimeter, they're also small with a 6'0" Travis Trice and 5'10" LouRawls "TumTum" Nairns, Jr. (one of my all-time favorite names) sharing the PG duties. Bryn Forbes is the other guard and checks in at 6'3" and 175.

It is not an intimidating lineup when you look at it and Duke will have comparable players that are bigger and/or quicker at nearly every position.

It's not surprising to see why Jahlil Okafor had a good game - 17 points and 5 rebounds on 8 of 10 shooting and 1 of 2 free throws - in his first exposure to a national audience. Schilling and Costello are not rim protectors. In fact, the four top scorers for Duke all had very good games back in November. Winslow had 15 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and a block. Tyus Jones had 17 points, 4 assists, 2 steals, and no turnovers. Senior Quinn Cook led the way with 19 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, and 0 turnovers. Duke shot 54% from the floor and 50% from 3 (7-14) in Indianapolis, less than a mile from the site of the Final Four where they will play their rematch.

So Duke is bigger at almost every position, has higher level athletes all over the floor, can shoot it better, and now they are playing great defense all of a sudden? Why even analyze this game? We should focus on Kentucky or Wisconsin instead, right?

Here's what troubles me: MSU doesn't quit. They keep possessions alive. They use their gritty, taller guys to get offensive rebounds. They find ways to take open shots. They hustle. They don't stop. This team is a personification of every Michigan State team Tom Izzo has ever coached.

The numbers says this game will be easier than Utah and Gonzaga proved to be. They don't have 1st round talent on the roster or tall athletic bigs to counter Okafor's one-man low post game. They don't have dead eye shooters all over the backcourt (although Valentine and Forbes are very good). Duke is favored over Michigan State nearly as much as Kentucky is favored over Wisconsin by the betting models and odds makers. Another plus is the string of recent success Coach K has had against Tom Izzo. Of the 9 games played between the two, including the 1999 Final Four, Coach K has won all but 1 (the lone loss came in the 2005 NCAA Tournament when juniors JJ Redick and Shelden Williams lost to 5-seed MSU featuring Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown, and Paul Davis). You have to trust that a more talented team featuring a coach that knows how to win will prevail. Nothing is given. MSU knows how to fight, one of Coach K's favorite expressions. They can take inferior talent to mold a cohesive unit that just won't quit. When MSU fights, will Duke respond?

dukelifer
03-30-2015, 08:06 PM
Love this idea. I still love Sean Woods. Or I still love the Unforgettables.

I actually still hate Goose Givens. He scores his average and Duke has one more title. But he had to score 41!

Tripping William
03-30-2015, 08:20 PM
Love this idea. I still love Sean Woods. Or I still love the Unforgettables.

"Deron Feldhaus Started It" or, better, "Feldhaus Is Forgiven."

Brockt10
03-30-2015, 08:23 PM
I hope amile has a big game against state. Has anyone else noticed his intensity when he gets mismatched with a guard on defense? he claps and tells them to bring it on everytime. I love the kids heart.

Tripping William
03-30-2015, 08:27 PM
I actually still hate Goose Givens. He scores his average and Duke has one more title. But he had to score 41!

I feel the same about Wayne Turner. A generational difference, perhaps.

gcashwell
03-30-2015, 08:30 PM
I look at this matchup and everything seems to favor Duke, but I see how MSU has done in its previous few games against bad match ups and it makes me really nervous.

Edouble
03-30-2015, 09:26 PM
I feel the same about Wayne Turner. A generational difference, perhaps.

Ugh, it's Jeff Shepard for me...

BlueDevilBrowns
03-30-2015, 10:01 PM
Duke is 33-0 in the NCAAT all-time as a #1 seed vs. opponents seeded 6th or worse.

I like our odds.

dukemsu
03-30-2015, 10:02 PM
I don't post often anymore but these are still my two favorite teams. Thought I'd give you a take from an MSU alum point of view as I've seen every game both teams have played this season.

First off, I'd forget the November game. Duke couldn't guard then and MSU couldn't score. As both the eye test and KenPom will tell you, neither of those is the case any longer. If you have not seen MSU play much this season, the version playing right now is not a vintage Football On Hardwood group. This team moves the ball very well, has a relatively low turnover rate (the lowest ever for an Izzo team), and isn't the dominant rebounding force of years past. They also aren't as non-talented as they're currently being portrayed. Certainly no surefire NBA players, but a couple who may latch onto a roster and more who are very strong in their roles. They have played extremely well for a month now, their only slip being against Wisconsin in a game MSU controlled for over 30 minutes.

You're going to hear all week that Branden Dawson is the key for MSU. That's partially true, but even when he's on his game, he's primarily a defender and energy player who will wreak havoc by blocking shots and getting big put-backs. He is also tremendous in the open floor. The real key is Valentine, who at 6'5" remains a secondary ballhandler who can run the offense but has also become a very accurate shooter from distance. Does a little bit of everything, and has a herky-jerky old-man style of play that keeps opponents off balance. He's more athletic than people think, too. If Duke can get Valentine off the floor due to foul trouble, they could hit a big run early. MSU simply does not function well without him at either end.

Trice is very similar to Cook in that he has made tremendous strides in his senior season. He has mastered getting shots off ball screens and is a sneaky driver to the basket. He can be beat up defensively Costello and Schilling aren't a great pair at the 5 but both have their strengths. Costello is a good rim protector who also has range to 15 feet. Bryn Forbes is the rare 3 point shooter who shoots them better in transition, at a near 60% clip on fast breaks. He also has an uncanny ability to make shots while fading to his right.

Duke obviously presents a ton of issues from both a talent and schematic view for MSU, but Izzo is more experimental this year (he has deployed man defenses that are very zoneish at times, notably against Wisconsin and Virginia) and I expect that he'll come up with something that Duke hasn't seen from MSU to run at least some of the time. MSU has played extraordinary defense in spurts during the tournament. Duke has too many dribble penetrators and unless they are way off their game, should be able to have one big run at some point and then keep MSU at arms length. I would guess that the game ends somewhere between 8-12 points in Duke's favor. One more note-the free throw nightmares for MSU have also been somewhat overblown-the problem is that their worst shooters tend to be the ones who get fouled most (Schilling and Dawson particularly are awful). Valentine, Trice, and Forbes shoot them well but haven't started getting to the line much until recently.

Should be a great game.

dukemsu

wilson
03-30-2015, 10:36 PM
Or... Where's Richie Farmer?Or 16226-032 (http://www.kentucky.com/2014/01/27/3055061/prison-system-gives-richie-farmer.html).

subzero02
03-30-2015, 10:40 PM
I don't post often anymore but these are still my two favorite teams. Thought I'd give you a take from an MSU alum point of view as I've seen every game both teams have played this season.

First off, I'd forget the November game. Duke couldn't guard then and MSU couldn't score. As both the eye test and KenPom will tell you, neither of those is the case any longer. If you have not seen MSU play much this season, the version playing right now is not a vintage Football On Hardwood group. This team moves the ball very well, has a relatively low turnover rate (the lowest ever for an Izzo team), and isn't the dominant rebounding force of years past. They also aren't as non-talented as they're currently being portrayed. Certainly no surefire NBA players, but a couple who may latch onto a roster and more who are very strong in their roles. They have played extremely well for a month now, their only slip being against Wisconsin in a game MSU controlled for over 30 minutes.

You're going to hear all week that Branden Dawson is the key for MSU. That's partially true, but even when he's on his game, he's primarily a defender and energy player who will wreak havoc by blocking shots and getting big put-backs. He is also tremendous in the open floor. The real key is Valentine, who at 6'5" remains a secondary ballhandler who can run the offense but has also become a very accurate shooter from distance. Does a little bit of everything, and has a herky-jerky old-man style of play that keeps opponents off balance. He's more athletic than people think, too. If Duke can get Valentine off the floor due to foul trouble, they could hit a big run early. MSU simply does not function well without him at either end.

Trice is very similar to Cook in that he has made tremendous strides in his senior season. He has mastered getting shots off ball screens and is a sneaky driver to the basket. He can be beat up defensively Costello and Schilling aren't a great pair at the 5 but both have their strengths. Costello is a good rim protector who also has range to 15 feet. Bryn Forbes is the rare 3 point shooter who shoots them better in transition, at a near 60% clip on fast breaks. He also has an uncanny ability to make shots while fading to his right.

Duke obviously presents a ton of issues from both a talent and schematic view for MSU, but Izzo is more experimental this year (he has deployed man defenses that are very zoneish at times, notably against Wisconsin and Virginia) and I expect that he'll come up with something that Duke hasn't seen from MSU to run at least some of the time. MSU has played extraordinary defense in spurts during the tournament. Duke has too many dribble penetrators and unless they are way off their game, should be able to have one big run at some point and then keep MSU at arms length. I would guess that the game ends somewhere between 8-12 points in Duke's favor. One more note-the free throw nightmares for MSU have also been somewhat overblown-the problem is that their worst shooters tend to be the ones who get fouled most (Schilling and Dawson particularly are awful). Valentine, Trice, and Forbes shoot them well but haven't started getting to the line much until recently.

Should be a great game.

dukemsu

Nice breakdown. I did notice in the Louisville game that both Trice and Valentine will take ill-advised shots at times. Do you think Dawson will be able to keep up with a quickly improving Winslow on the defensive end.

dukemsu
03-30-2015, 10:52 PM
Nice breakdown. I did notice in the Louisville game that both Trice and Valentine will take ill-advised shots at times. Do you think Dawson will be able to keep up with a quickly improving Winslow on the defensive end.
Dawson is a very skilled defender who will often bait players into shots that he can block. Keeping up won't be a problem for him, he is nearly an athletic match for Winslow in quickness and he is certainly stronger. I don't think he can necessarily shut down Winslow but I would guess he stays in front of him. Dawson has guarded players like Winslow but he also guarded Kaminsky in the B1G final and did a reasonably good job. Wouldn't be surprised to see Valentine get some minutes against Winslow as well.

Valentine will have a couple of questionable shots/turnovers every game. For having an old-school game, he does take risks. Trice is prone to the heat-check 3 but he is also knocking a lot of them down over the last month.

dukemsu

KandG
03-30-2015, 11:20 PM
You're going to hear all week that Branden Dawson is the key for MSU. That's partially true, but even when he's on his game, he's primarily a defender and energy player who will wreak havoc by blocking shots and getting big put-backs. He is also tremendous in the open floor. The real key is Valentine, who at 6'5" remains a secondary ballhandler who can run the offense but has also become a very accurate shooter from distance. Does a little bit of everything, and has a herky-jerky old-man style of play that keeps opponents off balance. He's more athletic than people think, too. If Duke can get Valentine off the floor due to foul trouble, they could hit a big run early. MSU simply does not function well without him at either end.


Duke obviously presents a ton of issues from both a talent and schematic view for MSU, but Izzo is more experimental this year (he has deployed man defenses that are very zoneish at times, notably against Wisconsin and Virginia) and I expect that he'll come up with something that Duke hasn't seen from MSU to run at least some of the time. MSU has played extraordinary defense in spurts during the tournament. Duke has too many dribble penetrators and unless they are way off their game, should be able to have one big run at some point and then keep MSU at arms length. I would guess that the game ends somewhere between 8-12 points in Duke's favor. One more note-the free throw nightmares for MSU have also been somewhat overblown-the problem is that their worst shooters tend to be the ones who get fouled most (Schilling and Dawson particularly are awful). Valentine, Trice, and Forbes shoot them well but haven't started getting to the line much until recently.

Should be a great game.

dukemsu

Wonderful breakdown, thanks for that. I do think Duke ought to be able to win the game, but it may not necessarily be comfortable because Valentine and Dawson, along with the experimentation from Izzo you refer to, means MSU is going to be a "high-variance" (or higher variance) play than say, a team like Gonzaga or SDSU. I also worry (probably irrationally) that some of the young guys may be a bit complacent if they get off to an early lead since they've had focus issues in numerous games and they've already beaten MSU (even if that was a long time ago).

With that said, I think the Duke coaching staff will have the team fired up and focused on respecting the opponent at hand, and the (likely) hostile crowd will also have the effect of focusing them. As you said, should be a great, competitive game and I think MSU is going to fight like their lives depend on it throughout.

PallasAthena
03-31-2015, 12:23 AM
When Duke was in Indy’s land,
Go Blue Devils Go!
So Many Twisted Ankles They Could Barely Stand,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Tyus,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Nor Eagles Nor Aztecs Were Our Foil,
Go Blue Devils Go!
Nor Utes Nor Zags Could Our Season Spoil,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Quinn,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

We Waited All Season To See This Tough D,
Go Blue Devils Go!
And When We Needed It, Matt Made Another Three,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Justise,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Coach K Has This Team In Tip-Top Form,
Go blue Devils Go!
I Hope To See Magic Looking Forlorn,
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go down, Jahlil,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!

Our Foes Shall Not Before Us Stand,
Go Blue Devils Go!
One More Ring And Its One For Each Finger On The Hand!
Go Blue Devils Go!

Go Down Amile,
Do Down Marshall,
Go Down Matt,
Go Down Greyson
Go Down Sean,
Go Down Nick,
GO DOWN DEVILS,
Way down in Indy’s land;
Tell Old Izzo
Go Blue Devils Go!
(Rip 'em up, Tear 'em up, Give 'em hell, Duke!)

Chag sameach!

Indoor66
03-31-2015, 08:00 AM
Duke is 33-0 in the NCAAT all-time as a #1 seed vs. opponents seeded 6th or worse.

I like our odds.

WOW, that is a compelling stat upon which to base a betting decision. :cool:

sagegrouse
03-31-2015, 09:02 AM
Dawson is a very skilled defender who will often bait players into shots that he can block. Keeping up won't be a problem for him, he is nearly an athletic match for Winslow in quickness and he is certainly stronger. I don't think he can necessarily shut down Winslow but I would guess he stays in front of him. Dawson has guarded players like Winslow but he also guarded Kaminsky in the B1G final and did a reasonably good job. Wouldn't be surprised to see Valentine get some minutes against Winslow as well.

Valentine will have a couple of questionable shots/turnovers every game. For having an old-school game, he does take risks. Trice is prone to the heat-check 3 but he is also knocking a lot of them down over the last month.

dukemsu

Valentine, through two bonehead plays, cost MSU the Big Ten tournament championship against Wisconsin. With 15 seconds to go and a two-point Spartan lead, a Badger made a spectacular save of a ball heading out-of-bounds, throwing up in the air and caught by Valentine. Rather than holding it and waiting for the inevitable foul, he attempted a soft lob pass up court that was easily picked off. Wisconsin tied the game, and IIRC, won in OT. The other play was a similar unnecessary pass a minute or so before.

The fact that Valentine is still in the lineup shows how valuable he is to Izzo.

rifraf
03-31-2015, 09:12 AM
... With 15 seconds to go and a two-point Spartan lead, a Badger made a spectacular save of a ball heading out-of-bounds, throwing up in the air and caught by Valentine. Rather than holding it and waiting for the inevitable foul, ...

While I absolutely agree that Valentine should have just held the ball in that situation, the ref's also didn't do them any favors by missing the fact that the Badger player stepped on the line as he was trying to save it.

A question for the board: it seems like the refs go to the camera for stuff like this all the time now, however in this case they didn't. I know they can retroactively add a point or take one away for 3 point shots and can go reset the shot clock, and they can review who the ball goes out on etc. What was it about this situation that precluded them from checking to see if the Badger was out? Why don't the refs have the option of reviewing it at the next whistle and resetting back to that point if necessary?

billy
03-31-2015, 09:33 AM
Not quite there yet, but this is amusing:

https://twitter.com/tarheelblog/status/582324715378905089?s=09


At least those morons are thinking/planning ahead:rolleyes:.

I may be the only one who thinks this is funny, but, most of the comments/retweets were by "Able Crooke"

-jk
03-31-2015, 09:47 AM
While I absolutely agree that Valentine should have just held the ball in that situation, the ref's also didn't do them any favors by missing the fact that the Badger player stepped on the line as he was trying to save it.

A question for the board: it seems like the refs go to the camera for stuff like this all the time now, however in this case they didn't. I know they can retroactively add a point or take one away for 3 point shots and can go reset the shot clock, and they can review who the ball goes out on etc. What was it about this situation that precluded them from checking to see if the Badger was out? Why don't the refs have the option of reviewing it at the next whistle and resetting back to that point if necessary?

Monitor review has certain limits. As I understand it in this case, if the ball was called out of bounds (and then only in the last two minutes and OT), they can change the possession, but not retroactively call a missed OOB.

-jk

Troublemaker
03-31-2015, 09:52 AM
I also worry (probably irrationally) that some of the young guys may be a bit complacent if they get off to an early lead since they've had focus issues in numerous games and they've already beaten MSU (even if that was a long time ago).

With that said, I think the Duke coaching staff will have the team fired up and focused on respecting the opponent at hand, and the (likely) hostile crowd will also have the effect of focusing them.

Yeah, if inconsistent focus has been a problem for this young team, then this situation they're in is the mother of all focus challenges. Will they be looking forward to a possible Kentucky matchup rather than focusing on this 7 seed that they've already beaten? I hope not.

Monmouth77
03-31-2015, 10:10 AM
I don't post often anymore but these are still my two favorite teams. Thought I'd give you a take from an MSU alum point of view as I've seen every game both teams have played this season.

First off, I'd forget the November game. Duke couldn't guard then and MSU couldn't score. As both the eye test and KenPom will tell you, neither of those is the case any longer. If you have not seen MSU play much this season, the version playing right now is not a vintage Football On Hardwood group. This team moves the ball very well, has a relatively low turnover rate (the lowest ever for an Izzo team), and isn't the dominant rebounding force of years past. They also aren't as non-talented as they're currently being portrayed. Certainly no surefire NBA players, but a couple who may latch onto a roster and more who are very strong in their roles. They have played extremely well for a month now, their only slip being against Wisconsin in a game MSU controlled for over 30 minutes.

You're going to hear all week that Branden Dawson is the key for MSU. That's partially true, but even when he's on his game, he's primarily a defender and energy player who will wreak havoc by blocking shots and getting big put-backs. He is also tremendous in the open floor. The real key is Valentine, who at 6'5" remains a secondary ballhandler who can run the offense but has also become a very accurate shooter from distance. Does a little bit of everything, and has a herky-jerky old-man style of play that keeps opponents off balance. He's more athletic than people think, too. If Duke can get Valentine off the floor due to foul trouble, they could hit a big run early. MSU simply does not function well without him at either end.


Trice is very similar to Cook in that he has made tremendous strides in his senior season. He has mastered getting shots off ball screens and is a sneaky driver to the basket. He can be beat up defensively Costello and Schilling aren't a great pair at the 5 but both have their strengths. Costello is a good rim protector who also has range to 15 feet. Bryn Forbes is the rare 3 point shooter who shoots them better in transition, at a near 60% clip on fast breaks. He also has an uncanny ability to make shots while fading to his right.

Duke obviously presents a ton of issues from both a talent and schematic view for MSU, but Izzo is more experimental this year (he has deployed man defenses that are very zoneish at times, notably against Wisconsin and Virginia) and I expect that he'll come up with something that Duke hasn't seen from MSU to run at least some of the time. MSU has played extraordinary defense in spurts during the tournament. Duke has too many dribble penetrators and unless they are way off their game, should be able to have one big run at some point and then keep MSU at arms length. I would guess that the game ends somewhere between 8-12 points in Duke's favor. One more note-the free throw nightmares for MSU have also been somewhat overblown-the problem is that their worst shooters tend to be the ones who get fouled most (Schilling and Dawson particularly are awful). Valentine, Trice, and Forbes shoot them well but haven't started getting to the line much until recently.

Should be a great game.

dukemsu

This is a really excellent MSU preview that I cannot add much too, but I saw them play in Charlotte (against UGA and UVA) and cannot emphasize enough that this team is *not* the typical "crash-the-boards and get tip-ins, slow the pace" type Michigan State team. They pushed the pace on both Georgia and UVA and scored a ton in transition, and they get a lot of their halfcourt offense on jumpshots. Trice is absolutely the key to the team. In my opinion he had the best combined indiviudal performance of any player in Charlotte (including the Duke players).

This is not to say that Michigan State lacks size or rebounding ability -- they can get after it, and they can defend. But, having seen them play in person this year and back in 2013 (in the first two rounds in Detroit) I would say this team is much less dangerous than the one we beat in the Sweet Sixteen two years ago (which had Trice and Appling and Valentine but also Adrian Payne, Gary Harris and Derrick Nix). They do not have a killer stretch 4 or a dominant big man, or a fearsome dribble drive attack. They are just very good and and are playing at a very high level right now.

We have to shut down Trice, who is brilliant. But if we are able to do that, and play the same brand of defense we have been bringing to the table in the Tournament so far, I don't think they can outscore us. Obviously the Spartans have played top teams tough, and almost clipped Wisconsin in the B1G tourney, but Duke's offense is something they have not had to contend with in the NCAAs so far.

rsvman
03-31-2015, 10:13 AM
WOW, that is a compelling stat upon which to base a betting decision. :cool:

Or not.


I tend to side with the "past performance does not necessarily imply future performance" camp. It's a one-game tournament. What happened previously has no bearing on the outcome.

Kedsy
03-31-2015, 10:18 AM
Yeah, if inconsistent focus has been a problem for this young team, then this situation they're in is the mother of all focus challenges. Will they be looking forward to a possible Kentucky matchup rather than focusing on this 7 seed that they've already beaten? I hope not.

This is my fear as well. Hopefully Coach K will convince them to focus on the matter at hand first.

cato
03-31-2015, 10:37 AM
Yeah, if inconsistent focus has been a problem for this young team, then this situation they're in is the mother of all focus challenges. Will they be looking forward to a possible Kentucky matchup rather than focusing on this 7 seed that they've already beaten? I hope not.

Hopefully some ACC semifinal game tape can be used to improve focus on the task at hand.

COYS
03-31-2015, 10:41 AM
This is my fear as well. Hopefully Coach K will convince them to focus on the matter at hand first.

My hope is that the extra bright lights of the Final Four will help sharpen the team's focus. Also, while we may have already beaten the Spartans, they are still a marquee program playing under a big-time coach with a track record of March success. Focus has been an issue, true, but at the same time, I think it's particularly difficult to overlook the Spartans in this situation.

DoubleDuke Dad
03-31-2015, 11:40 AM
Yeah, if inconsistent focus has been a problem for this young team, then this situation they're in is the mother of all focus challenges. Will they be looking forward to a possible Kentucky matchup Wisconsin rematch rather than focusing on this 7 seed that they've already beaten? I hope not.

Fixed that for you:)

Devil in the Blue Dress
03-31-2015, 11:54 AM
Dave Briggs of NBC sporting the Duke socks on Squawk Box this morning. Apparently he's a big Duke fan but I'm unaware of any connection per se.

4932

My friend Woot says that Dave Briggs' dad, Tom Briggs, was a Phi Delt fraternity brother of his. He was class of '70, and a great guy.

roywhite
03-31-2015, 02:57 PM
Which player has the best overall performance in the tournament so far?

The 20 Best Performers From the 2015 NCAA Tournament (http://www.numberfire.com/ncaab/news/4856/the-20-best-performers-from-the-2015-ncaa-tournament)

According to the linked article:

Justise Winslow, Duke, Rating: 89 - Winslow, according to our math, has been the absolute best player in the tournament, and looking at his full stat line, it's hard to argue. Winslow's 14.0 points per game ranks just 11th on this list of 20 (and 41st of the 96 players who recorded at least 50 minutes in the tournament), but he's made 7 of 12 shots from beyond the arc (58.3 percent and third best among players who have attempted at least 10 shots from deep). And nobody is filling up the peripheral categories quite like he is.

juise
03-31-2015, 03:32 PM
Which player has the best overall performance in the tournament so far?

The 20 Best Performers From the 2015 NCAA Tournament (http://www.numberfire.com/ncaab/news/4856/the-20-best-performers-from-the-2015-ncaa-tournament)

According to the linked article:

It's interesting that Quinn ranks #4 and the calculation does not take into account how well a player guards (or leads). Well done, Mr. Cook!

Indoor66
03-31-2015, 03:33 PM
Or not.


I tend to side with the "past performance does not necessarily imply future performance" camp. It's a one-game tournament. What happened previously has no bearing on the outcome.

You missed the sarcasm....:cool:

Skitzle
03-31-2015, 03:41 PM
Which player has the best overall performance in the tournament so far?

The 20 Best Performers From the 2015 NCAA Tournament (http://www.numberfire.com/ncaab/news/4856/the-20-best-performers-from-the-2015-ncaa-tournament)

According to the linked article:

4 Duke Players on the list, next best is Kentucky with 3....

I'll take it.

Our worst player of the 4 is Jahlil. This means good things I think. If he picks it up this weekend... LOOK OUT!

CR9
03-31-2015, 04:19 PM
So instead of just laying down and dying, MSU fought back hard? Yeah, that's really pathetic...

Wasn't much of a 'fight back' as much as it was Wisconsin shutting it down. But continue to flame me. I thoroughly enjoy it.

BigWayne
03-31-2015, 06:52 PM
I can't wait to see what the team specific streams will feature... Hopefully some team specific stats and maybe a Winslow cam...

Alaa A as the color guy and Chris Spatola on the sidelines.
Tom Werme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Werme), will handle the play-by-play for the Duke “Team Stream.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/tv/mateen-cleaves-among-analysts-on-final-four-homer-broadcasts/2015/03/31/4570be22-d7ce-11e4-bf0b-f648b95a6488_story.html

OldPhiKap
03-31-2015, 08:21 PM
Alaa A as the color guy and Chris Spatola on the sidelines.
Tom Werme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Werme), will handle the play-by-play for the Duke “Team Stream.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/tv/mateen-cleaves-among-analysts-on-final-four-homer-broadcasts/2015/03/31/4570be22-d7ce-11e4-bf0b-f648b95a6488_story.html

I never had a chance to hear Alaa Abdulnaby until this year, when he has been the in-studio analyst for Westeood (carried on Sirius/XM). Did a great job.

KandG
03-31-2015, 09:07 PM
Yeah, if inconsistent focus has been a problem for this young team, then this situation they're in is the mother of all focus challenges. Will they be looking forward to a possible Kentucky matchup rather than focusing on this 7 seed that they've already beaten? I hope not.

That's the good thing about having the early game for a change. If Duke-MSU were the second game and Kentucky had already beaten Wisconsin, one can only imagine how tempting it would have been to look ahead to Monday if Duke had built, say, an early 10 to 12 point lead.

Laettner92
04-01-2015, 01:26 AM
I haven't heard it mentioned yet but does anyone feel it ma help Duke to have played 2 games in a dome compared to the other 3 teams playing their games in a normal NBA arena?

uh_no
04-01-2015, 01:34 AM
I haven't heard it mentioned yet but does anyone feel it ma help Duke to have played 2 games in a dome compared to the other 3 teams playing their games in a normal NBA arena?

doubt it. two reasons

1) the region was a very different setup from the final 4. I don't believe they played in the end zone, but portions of teh stadium were curtained off. even having been in lucas oil with and without curtains, it's a massive difference in feel
2) UK and wisconsin each played in the f4 last year...and the MSU players have likely at some point in the last 4 years played in a region in a big dome (2012 they played in lucas oil)...so everybody has played there, everybody knows it's different.
3) 2 games at the end of the season, followed by a week off is not enough time to really adjust to a new arena IMO, if there IS an adjustment period needed
4) I bet if you looked at winning % for teams that came from regions that played in domes vs , you'd find little to no correlation .
5) glenfiddich

gumbomoop
04-01-2015, 01:47 AM
For those of you with access to the Big Ten Network (DirecTV ch. 610), there will be lots of MichSt and a little bit of Duke on Wed (today) through Fri. As follows, all times EDT:

1. Wed 4/1, noon-1:30, MSU @ Ind, last reg season game
2. Wed 4/1, 1:30-3, MSU-Wisc, BIG championship game
3. Wed 4/1, 4:30-6, MSU-Terps, BIG semi
4. Wed 4/1, 7-8:30, UK-Wisc, 2014 FF semi; again at 11:30-1 am; again Thurs 4/2, 10:30-noon
5. Thurs 4/2, noon-4:40, FF press conference, coaches and players; I can't tell whether this is 4 short pressers, maybe 15 min each, for each team, shown live from noon to 1:10, then rebroadcast 3 times Thurs aft. OR, an hour-long live presser for each team, order not listed, noon-1:05, 1:10-2:15, 2:20-3:25, 3:30-4:40
6. Fri 4/3, 11 am-noon, MSU presser, live
7. Fri 4/3, noon-1, Duke presser, live
8. Fri 4/3, 1-2, Wisc presser, live
9. Fri 4/3, 2-3, UK presser, live

David Bunkley
04-01-2015, 08:50 AM
5) glenfiddich

Hopefully this doesn't keep us from lighting MSU up Saturday evening.

#GODUKE

roywhite
04-01-2015, 02:05 PM
ACC officials will work Final Four (http://www.news-record.com/blogs/hardin_hard_n_fast/acc-officials-will-work-final-four/article_35a64a8e-d7b0-11e4-9c27-f7d1fc02f304.html)


The ACC was left out of the Final Four last year when no league officials were included for the first time since 2006. This year, two regular ACC officials will work the games - Mike Eades and Bryan Kersey.

Could be worse, I guess.

Indoor66
04-01-2015, 02:27 PM
ACC officials will work Final Four (http://www.news-record.com/blogs/hardin_hard_n_fast/acc-officials-will-work-final-four/article_35a64a8e-d7b0-11e4-9c27-f7d1fc02f304.html)



Could be worse, I guess.

Maybe the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.

roywhite
04-01-2015, 02:46 PM
Even Grantland is getting on the Justise Winslow train

Justise Winslow Is Not Fair (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/244834/)


But Winslow is the piece that’s been missing from Duke teams the past few years. Even as Coach K modernized his recruiting to add more superstars, he hasn’t had anybody with this kind of edge. Austin Rivers was fine and Jabari Parker was fun, but they didn’t bully people into submission. Okafor’s post game is beautiful, but nothing about him ever feels brutal. With Winslow, it’s different.

He overpowers big men for rebounds. His blocks demoralize people on defense. He careens through the lane in transition. The whole thing just looks exhausting for anyone stuck defending him. It’s like teams spend entire games guarding everyone else on the floor, and then look up and say, “We have to deal with THIS?”

jv001
04-01-2015, 03:00 PM
ACC officials will work Final Four (http://www.news-record.com/blogs/hardin_hard_n_fast/acc-officials-will-work-final-four/article_35a64a8e-d7b0-11e4-9c27-f7d1fc02f304.html)



Could be worse, I guess.

Thanks Roy for the link. I hate to hear this because I can see it now. These guys will have in the back of their mind, "don't let the media say we're pro ACC/Duke". If Justise get's into early or late foul trouble, you can bet that's what happened. UConn and E. Okafor all over again(Not saying those officials were ACC) but the outcome is what I'm worried about. Our entire center position fouled out against UConn. High way robbery. I'm going to pray hard at church tonight for a fair shake by the officials. GoDuke!

Utley
04-01-2015, 04:21 PM
Even Grantland is getting on the Justise Winslow train

Justise Winslow Is Not Fair (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/244834/)

One of the best articles I have read in a long time. I have compared Winslow to some other players who carried their team to the title. Although its a painful comparison, the one he reminds me of right now is Sean May for UNC. I remember May just beng stronger than everyone else and almost literally carrying his team to the title. That's Justise right now. He was great all weekend but he was just ridiculous durng the last ten minutes on Sunday - he got to every ball he wanted and broke Zaga's will.

Billy Dat
04-01-2015, 04:25 PM
Even Grantland is getting on the Justise Winslow train

Justise Winslow Is Not Fair (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/244834/)

This is notable because the author, Andrew Sharp, is a Heel homer who hates Duke, and he even says so in the piece:

"Last week, I wrote that the best thing I can say about Winslow is that every time he steps on the court, I’m worried he’s going to hurt someone. That isn’t true anymore. I’ve despised Duke with all my heart for my entire life. And the best thing I can say about Justise Winslow is that he had me rooting for Duke to make the Final Four this weekend. Watching this is too much fun."

These sentiments try to offset the mud he slung a few weeks back but doesn't really come close enough for me:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/kentucky-is-the-only-team-that-matters/
"Also, just for the record: Duke will always be the Yankees of college basketball. It doesn’t matter how cool Duke’s players ever become. It doesn’t matter that Coach K is using Team USA to make himself more likable. It’s the fans. It’s always been the fans. That Christian Laettner documentary was a perfect example. What kind of person could ever cheer for that Duke team over the Fab Five? Is that someone you would ever want to be friends with? Even now, if I’m talking to someone at a party and I find out he’s a Duke fan, there’s a 60 percent chance I will walk away from that conversation disgusted, usually for reasons that have nothing to do with college basketball. Duke has the most douches per capita of any fan base in sports, and that includes the Yankees, the Lakers, the Heat the past few years, and the Cowboys. Nobody can touch Duke. Compared to that, Kentucky is just a good team that has always been good. Like Alabama football. Not necessarily lovable, but definitely not Duke."

Yeah, well, at least he likes Justise.

weezie
04-01-2015, 04:38 PM
...Andrew Sharp...

"...Duke has the most douches per capita of any fan base in sports..."


Yes, well, takes one to know one. Burn.

OldPhiKap
04-01-2015, 04:53 PM
So, what exactly does Andrew Sharp have against hygiene?

devildeac
04-01-2015, 06:22 PM
ACC officials will work Final Four (http://www.news-record.com/blogs/hardin_hard_n_fast/acc-officials-will-work-final-four/article_35a64a8e-d7b0-11e4-9c27-f7d1fc02f304.html)



Could be worse, I guess.

Well, maybe. We could get luckie and get hess, too:mad:. This is not good.

Newton_14
04-01-2015, 08:21 PM
I haven't heard it mentioned yet but does anyone feel it ma help Duke to have played 2 games in a dome compared to the other 3 teams playing their games in a normal NBA arena?

I don't think that would have an impact to be honest. It's not an unreasonable suggestion by any means, and I could be wrong, but I don't feel it will give Duke an advantage. If it does, then great though. To me, the biggest advantage Duke has this weekend is winning so many tough games away from home this season, especially since over half our team is underclassmen. I know if has been stated a lot on this board, but what this team accomplished away from home is nothing short of incredulous. You would be hard pressed to find a team in this era that won so many big games away from home. They are as battle tested as a team could possibly be and they didn't just play in those tough games, they won them. Their resume compared to Kentucky is laughable.

Big wins not played in Cameron

Mich St- Neutral (Final Four Team)
Temple- Neutral (NIT Finals Team)
Stanford- Neutral (NIT Finals Team)
UConn- Neutral
Wisc- Road (Fina Four Team/BIG 10 Reg/Tourney Champs)
Louisville- Road (Elite 8 Team)
St Johns- Road (Tourney Team)
UVA- Road (ACC Reg Season Champs, Tourney Team)
Syracuse- Road
Unc- Road (Sweet 16 Team)
NC State- Neutral (Sweet 16 Team)
SDSU- Neutral (Tourney Game)
Utah- Neutral (Sweet 16 Game)
Gonzaga- Neutral (Elite 8 Game)

That is 14 impressive wins on the road or at Neutral sites, with 10 of them against NCAA Tourney teams, 2 against NIT Finals teams, and 2 against bubble teams.

Add in home wins against:
Notre Dame (Elite 8)
UNC (Sweet 16)
Wofford (Tourney Team)
Syracuse
Pitt

and that's 19 total wins against teams with a realistic chance of beating you, and that's not counting other road and home wins against conference opponents and any conference game is a game you could realistically lose.

That schedule, and the success against it, is the best preparation you could have going into a Final Four, especially with a young team.

Utley
04-01-2015, 08:31 PM
Even Grantland is getting on the Justise Winslow train

Justise Winslow Is Not Fair (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/244834/)

We've come a long way from alarmingly unathletic. Justise has got to be good for our brand.

weezie
04-01-2015, 08:38 PM
ACC officials will work Final Four (http://www.news-record.com/blogs/hardin_hard_n_fast/acc-officials-will-work-final-four/article_35a64a8e-d7b0-11e4-9c27-f7d1fc02f304.html)



Maybe the [not a] devil you know is better than the [not a] devil you don't.

Feeling kind of sick now.... hair-trigger Kersey trying to look all strict and tough?! Oh no, this is not cool.

hudlow
04-01-2015, 08:57 PM
ACC officials will work Final Four (http://www.news-record.com/blogs/hardin_hard_n_fast/acc-officials-will-work-final-four/article_35a64a8e-d7b0-11e4-9c27-f7d1fc02f304.html)



Could be worse, I guess.


Lowest bidders?

-jk
04-01-2015, 09:07 PM
Lowest bidders?

I wish. There are a lot of bad refs out there...

-jk

Acymetric
04-01-2015, 09:08 PM
And probably more sober.

Not my experience at Indy in 2010 but of course that is anecdotal.

chi
04-01-2015, 09:22 PM
Okafor's father son bond

http://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2015-03-30/jahlil-okafor-family-duke-blue-devils

Acymetric
04-01-2015, 09:23 PM
Feeling kind of sick now.... hair-trigger Kersey trying to look all strict and tough?! Oh no, this is not cool.

I'm fine with it. No Valentine, Luckie or (if it were even still an option) Hess and I am cool with it all the way.

DRC
04-01-2015, 09:46 PM
Also....

Dear Charles Barkley,

Please pick Michigan State to win on Saturday. We have enjoyed your picks of Utah and Gonzaga the last 3 days.

With love,
Duke fans
Uhhhh....that's Barles Charkley. :)

g-money
04-01-2015, 10:09 PM
ACC officials will work Final Four (http://www.news-record.com/blogs/hardin_hard_n_fast/acc-officials-will-work-final-four/article_35a64a8e-d7b0-11e4-9c27-f7d1fc02f304.html)

Could be worse, I guess.

Shoot, I guess that means Grayson Allen is destined to pick up 3 fouls while he's waiting to check in at the scorer's table... :)

CDu
04-01-2015, 10:42 PM
Fun matchups in this one:

Winslow on Dawson. Dawson isn't a primary offensive threat at all. He can't shoot, doesn't dribble well, etc. But he is an absolute menace on the offensive boards and in transition and getting general garbage buckets. The matchup the other way is equally interesting, as Dawson is a very good physical matchup on Winslow. He could very well negate Winslow's effectiveness if he can stay on the floor.

Cook on Trice. Cook has made it his personal mission to stifle the other team's best perimeter scorer over the second half of this year. And he is succeeding fairly often. Can he do it again. Trice is actually a great matchup for Cook: he lacks size and isn't a great player off the dribble. So his strengths play to Cook's strengths. Can Cook keep him away from the ball? Can he harass Trice enough on his shots? If Cook manages that matchup, MSU really only has one other effective offensive player.

Matt Jones against Valentine (Winslow on Valentine when Jefferson is in and Dawson is out). Valentine is the Swiss army knife for the Spartans. He does a little of everything. Can Jones (a pesky defender) disrupt Valentine enough? Can he force a few turnovers off Valentine?

I think we should win the matchups with Tyus Jones and Okafor. Hopefully we can win them handily to take the pressure off those three above.

Can't wait till Saturday.

KandG
04-01-2015, 11:18 PM
This is notable because the author, Andrew Sharp, is a Heel homer who hates Duke

Can't be understated how true this is. I think Duke fans are sometimes too sensitive about perceived bias from certain announcers or writers, but Sharp is near nihilistic in his hatred of Duke -- he even linked to a certain truth about Duke website in a past anti-K piece on SB Nation, and never fails to get in a dig at Duke or K even when he's praising Team USA or a Duke alum like Kyrie.

So the article about Winslow was stunning, given he's treated Duke like ISIS for his entire life. I should note that I actually enjoy Sharp's writing on the NBA and think he's good at what he does, but I just ignore or laughingly wince at his attempt to walk the Duke tightrope without lobbing grenades. (He's that UNC grad at a cocktail party that gives you the dead fish handshake when you tell him where you went to school, and acts like he's superior to you, no matter how polite and friendly you try to be).

When you learn to recognize the UNC envy/resentment seeping through his critiques, it becomes easier to dismiss the cheap shots, and treat the rare and grudging praise for what it is -- undeniable recognition of how well a Duke player or team is doing.

jv001
04-02-2015, 06:52 AM
I just checked Ken Pom just to see if Duke is still rated 17 on Adj D and found we dropped to 18 and have not played a game since I last looked. Temple is not 17, Ken's 54 ranked team. I guess the rankings are taking in the NIT games and that other minor league championship. I'll go with my eye test and Coach K's belief, we're a good defensive team. GoDuke!

OldPhiKap
04-02-2015, 07:24 AM
I just checked Ken Pom just to see if Duke is still rated 17 on Adj D and found we dropped to 18 and have not played a game since I last looked. Temple is not 17, Ken's 54 ranked team. I guess the rankings are taking in the NIT games and that other minor league championship. I'll go with my eye test and Coach K's belief, we're a good defensive team. GoDuke!

FWIW, K maintains that the most important stats are what a team has done the last four games or so, as opposed to all season or all conference, because that shows where they are currently. Any ratings by that metric?

CDu
04-02-2015, 09:00 AM
FWIW, K maintains that the most important stats are what a team has done the last four games or so, as opposed to all season or all conference, because that shows where they are currently. Any ratings by that metric?

A distinction needs to be made here. Pomeroy's math isn't trying to answer the question who has the best defense. It just measures who has played the best defense over the entire season. As has been stated numerous times by numerous folks, this Duke team has had a focus problem all season. So we haven't played great defense this year. In the tourney though we have played as well as anyone defensively.

roywhite
04-02-2015, 09:23 AM
A distinction needs to be made here. Pomeroy's math isn't trying to answer the question who has the best defense. It just measures who has played the best defense over the entire season. As has been stated numerous times by numerous folks, this Duke team has had a focus problem all season. So we haven't played great defense this year. In the tourney though we have played as well as anyone defensively.

I understand your main point, but I've got to disagree with how this is stated.

"the Duke team has had a focus problem all season" -- well, at 33-4, that's overstating the focus problem, which is better described as occasional, and not unusual considering the youth
"So we haven't played great defense this year" -- well, at times, we haven't, especially early in the calendar year, but defense has been excellent in late season, and the tournament (which you note)

I like the way this team is playing, and like our chances this weekend.

CDu
04-02-2015, 10:48 AM
I understand your main point, but I've got to disagree with how this is stated.

"the Duke team has had a focus problem all season" -- well, at 33-4, that's overstating the focus problem, which is better described as occasional, and not unusual considering the youth
"So we haven't played great defense this year" -- well, at times, we haven't, especially early in the calendar year, but defense has been excellent in late season, and the tournament (which you note)

I like the way this team is playing, and like our chances this weekend.

My comments were intended entirely with respect to the discussion of our Pomeroy ranking defensively. Yes, the "focus problem" has only cost us in terms of playing more close games than we should have, and in terms of losing a couple more games than we should. I'd argue that we "should" be 35-2 or 36-1 (or even 38-0) had we not had the focus problem. So the focus problem has had very little impact on the big picture: we still won a ton of games and got a #1 seed; the only thing we didn't get was any sort of ACC championship. But when discussing Pomeroy rankings, the focus problem is very apparently. If we didn't have the focus problem, we would be a top-5 defense. But with it, we flirted briefly with being outside the top-100 and were outside the top-50 coming into the tournament.

In the tournament, we've been playing top-5 (probably top-2, and maybe #1) defense. If we were playing like that all season, we'd very likely be undefeated right now. But we haven't played with this level of focus or effort on defense for most of the season. As such, Pomeroy's numbers don't reflect our capabilities defensively, just our level of play over the course of the season (which has been weighted down by our lack of focus in many of our regular season games).

I too love the way we are playing right now, and I too like our chances this weekend. Because right now (and throughout the NCAA tournament) we've been playing with the kind of focus on defense that we hadn't been consistently displaying throughout the season. It is wonderful to see the team seemingly peaking at the right time and winning with defense.

gumbomoop
04-02-2015, 11:03 AM
Fun matchups in this one:

Winslow on Dawson. Dawson isn't a primary offensive threat at all. He can't shoot, doesn't dribble well, etc. But he is an absolute menace on the offensive boards and in transition and getting general garbage buckets. The matchup the other way is equally interesting, as Dawson is a very good physical matchup on Winslow. He could very well negate Winslow's effectiveness if he can stay on the floor.

Cook on Trice. Cook has made it his personal mission to stifle the other team's best perimeter scorer over the second half of this year. And he is succeeding fairly often. Can he do it again. Trice is actually a great matchup for Cook: he lacks size and isn't a great player off the dribble. So his strengths play to Cook's strengths. Can Cook keep him away from the ball? Can he harass Trice enough on his shots? If Cook manages that matchup, MSU really only has one other effective offensive player.

Matt Jones against Valentine (Winslow on Valentine when Jefferson is in and Dawson is out). Valentine is the Swiss army knife for the Spartans. He does a little of everything. Can Jones (a pesky defender) disrupt Valentine enough? Can he force a few turnovers off Valentine?

I think we should win the matchups with Tyus Jones and Okafor. Hopefully we can win them handily to take the pressure off those three above.

Can't wait till Saturday.

Good points here. Best I can tell, Duke is in no way outmatched at any position, and seems to have the obvious one clear advantage in Jahlil. I do wonder, however, whether Cook will be guarding Trice a lot. For, it looks as if in the 4 NCAAT games, Izzo has played Forbes a lot more than Nairns. Nairns starts, nominally as the PG, so presumably Tyus guards him, with Quinn on Trice, as per CDu's comments. But it may be accurate to say that Izzo has settled on his most effective lineup as including Forbes at the 2, thus producing the following Duke-D:

C -- Schilling/Costello, with cameo by Wollenman [see below] -- guarded by Jahlil, some minutes for Marshall
PF -- Dawson -- guarded mostly by Justise, sometimes Amile
SF -- Valentine, a point forward -- guarded mostly by Matt, sometimes Justise
SG -- Forbes, mostly -- guarded by Quinn, who will play 38-40 minutes
PG -- Trice, mostly -- guarded by Tyus, also 38-40 minutes

Cameo by Wollenman: I'll guess that if/once MSU reaches 6 fouls in the first half, that we'll see some cat-and-mouse by Izzo, whereby he goes offense-defense for a few possessions, putting Wollenman in to guard, and deliberately foul, Jahlil as soon as he touches the ball. But now I'm trying to think about dead-ball sub rule, so somebody help here. Take this scenario: 4:30 left in first half, Duke ball, MSU on 6 fouls, Wollenman enters game for first time. Ball goes into Jahlil, no double-team, Wollenman immediately fouls him. Now, can Izzo sub in Schilling/Costello before Jahlil takes the first FT?

ETA: K can cat-and-mouse, too, with our superior FT D. When Amile is guarding Dawson, if Dawson gets O-rebound, Amile should foul him. Ditto for Marshall against Schilling.

Dukehky
04-02-2015, 11:08 AM
Good points here. Best I can tell, Duke is in no way outmatched at any position, and seems to have the obvious one clear advantage in Jahlil. I do wonder, however, whether Cook will be guarding Trice a lot. For, it looks as if in the 4 NCAAT games, Izzo has played Forbes a lot more than Nairns. Nairns starts, nominally as the PG, so presumably Tyus guards him, with Quinn on Trice, as per CDu's comments. But it may be accurate to say that Izzo has settled on his most effective lineup as including Forbes at the 2, thus producing the following Duke-D:

C -- Schilling/Costello, with cameo by Wollenman [see below] -- guarded by Jahlil, some minutes for Marshall
PF -- Dawson -- guarded mostly by Justise, sometimes Amile
SF -- Valentine, a point forward -- guarded mostly by Matt, sometimes Justise
SG -- Forbes, mostly -- guarded by Quinn, who will play 38-40 minutes
PG -- Trice, mostly -- guarded by Tyus, also 38-40 minutes

Cameo by Wollenman: I'll guess that if/once MSU reaches 6 fouls in the first half, that we'll see some cat-and-mouse by Izzo, whereby he goes offense-defense for a few possessions, putting Wollenman in to guard, and deliberately foul, Jahlil as soon as he touches the ball. But now I'm trying to think about dead-ball sub rule, so somebody help here. Take this scenario: 4:30 left in first half, Duke ball, MSU on 6 fouls, Wollenman enters game for first time. Ball goes into Jahlil, no double-team, Wollenman immediately fouls him. Now, can Izzo sub in Schilling/Costello before Jahlil takes the first FT?

Quinn will have Trice for most of the game.

CDu
04-02-2015, 11:19 AM
Good points here. Best I can tell, Duke is in no way outmatched at any position, and seems to have the obvious one clear advantage in Jahlil. I do wonder, however, whether Cook will be guarding Trice a lot. For, it looks as if in the 4 NCAAT games, Izzo has played Forbes a lot more than Nairns. Nairns starts, nominally as the PG, so presumably Tyus guards him, with Quinn on Trice, as per CDu's comments. But it may be accurate to say that Izzo has settled on his most effective lineup as including Forbes at the 2, thus producing the following Duke-D:

C -- Schilling/Costello, with cameo by Wollenman [see below] -- guarded by Jahlil, some minutes for Marshall
PF -- Dawson -- guarded mostly by Justise, sometimes Amile
SF -- Valentine, a point forward -- guarded mostly by Matt, sometimes Justise
SG -- Forbes, mostly -- guarded by Quinn, who will play 38-40 minutes
PG -- Trice, mostly -- guarded by Tyus, also 38-40 minutes

Cameo by Wollenman: I'll guess that if/once MSU reaches 6 fouls in the first half, that we'll see some cat-and-mouse by Izzo, whereby he goes offense-defense for a few possessions, putting Wollenman in to guard, and deliberately foul, Jahlil as soon as he touches the ball. But now I'm trying to think about dead-ball sub rule, so somebody help here. Take this scenario: 4:30 left in first half, Duke ball, MSU on 6 fouls, Wollenman enters game for first time. Ball goes into Jahlil, no double-team, Wollenman immediately fouls him. Now, can Izzo sub in Schilling/Costello before Jahlil takes the first FT?

ETA: K can cat-and-mouse, too, with our superior FT D. When Amile is guarding Dawson, if Dawson gets O-rebound, Amile should foul him. Ditto for Marshall against Schilling.


Quinn will have Trice for most of the game.

I agree with both of these. I'd expect Trice to be guarded by Cook and Forbes by T. Jones. When Nairns is in, Trice moves to SG and will still be guarded by Cook, with Nairns being guarded by T. Jones. And I agree that, on paper, we have a reasonable match or an advantage at every position. The only place where I see a potentially clear edge for MSU is Valentine vs M. Jones.

Now, of course, that is all on paper. Who knows what will happen when we play?

pfrduke
04-02-2015, 11:36 AM
But now I'm trying to think about dead-ball sub rule, so somebody help here. Take this scenario: 4:30 left in first half, Duke ball, MSU on 6 fouls, Wollenman enters game for first time. Ball goes into Jahlil, no double-team, Wollenman immediately fouls him. Now, can Izzo sub in Schilling/Costello before Jahlil takes the first FT?

As long as any time runs off the clock between when Wollenman (in your example) checks into the game and when the foul is called, he can be subbed out, including before the first FT of a one-and-one. The only way he couldn't come out is if he checks in and then the foul occurs during the ensuing in-bound play, before the ball is inbounded and before any time comes off the clock.

Kedsy
04-02-2015, 11:46 AM
As long as any time runs off the clock between when Wollenman (in your example) checks into the game and when the foul is called, he can be subbed out, including before the first FT of a one-and-one. The only way he couldn't come out is if he checks in and then the foul occurs during the ensuing in-bound play, before the ball is inbounded and before any time comes off the clock.

I don't think this is right, unless the rule has changed since 2013. The following is from the 2013 NCAA rule book, Section 4:



Art. 2. Free Throws.

a. An entering player shall not replace a free-thrower. When the substitute
desires to replace a player who is to attempt a free throw, the substitute
shall remain at the scorers’ table until the next opportunity to enter the
game.

b. During multiple free throws for personal fouls, a substitute may enter
the game only before the final attempt in the sequence unless otherwise
authorized by the rules or after the final attempt has been successfully
converted.

1. Substitutions during a timeout but before the warning horn are
permissible before the first free-throw attempt.


Exceptions are for things like blood, fouling out, etc. So it would appear in gumbo's hypothetical that Michigan State would only be able to substitute after the first free throw, unless Izzo called a timeout.

ns7
04-02-2015, 12:06 PM
Cameo by Wollenman: I'll guess that if/once MSU reaches 6 fouls in the first half, that we'll see some cat-and-mouse by Izzo, whereby he goes offense-defense for a few possessions, putting Wollenman in to guard, and deliberately foul, Jahlil as soon as he touches the ball. But now I'm trying to think about dead-ball sub rule, so somebody help here. Take this scenario: 4:30 left in first half, Duke ball, MSU on 6 fouls, Wollenman enters game for first time. Ball goes into Jahlil, no double-team, Wollenman immediately fouls him. Now, can Izzo sub in Schilling/Costello before Jahlil takes the first FT?


Interesting idea on the intentional fouling. If I were Izzo, I would only do this if Duke is in the bonus (but not double-bonus) under three minutes. The problem with the intentional fouling any earlier is that it puts Duke in the double bonus. Tyus Jones (and Cook) have shown that they can draw fouls on drives to the basket, and these suddenly become ~1.8 points every possession.

pfrduke
04-02-2015, 12:24 PM
I don't think this is right, unless the rule has changed since 2013. The following is from the 2013 NCAA rule book, Section 4:



Exceptions are for things like blood, fouling out, etc. So it would appear in gumbo's hypothetical that Michigan State would only be able to substitute after the first free throw, unless Izzo called a timeout.

I'm certainly not up to speed on the rule book, but a one-and-one foul is not automatically "multiple" attempts, so I don't think that rule would preclude someone from subbing in before the front-end is attempted. This is anecdotal, but my recollection from watching games is that substitutions occur before the front-end of a one-and-one all the time.

budwom
04-02-2015, 12:47 PM
I understand the interest in the matchups, of course...but with MSU I always worry first, second and third about offensive rebounding. You can force them into a suboptimal shot, but then
they get second and third chances. If we can limit those, I feel good about our chances.

CDu
04-02-2015, 01:12 PM
I understand the interest in the matchups, of course...but with MSU I always worry first, second and third about offensive rebounding. You can force them into a suboptimal shot, but then
they get second and third chances. If we can limit those, I feel good about our chances.

Agreed. This is where Winslow and Matt Jones will be big factors. Dawson and Valentine are strong, athletic, and aggressive. They get a lot of rebounds. In some ways, the keys against MSU are similar to the keys against UNC:
1. Make them a half-court team on offense
2. Guard their shotmaker (Trice) with your life
3. Keep them off the offensive glass

Do those things and we should absolutely win. Struggle with these, and MSU will make you pay.

ns7
04-02-2015, 01:18 PM
Agreed. This is where Winslow and Matt Jones will be big factors. Dawson and Valentine are strong, athletic, and aggressive. They get a lot of rebounds. In some ways, the keys against MSU are similar to the keys against UNC:
1. Make them a half-court team on offense
2. Guard their shotmaker (Trice) with your life
3. Keep them off the offensive glass

Do those things and we should absolutely win. Struggle with these, and MSU will make you pay.

MSU only rebounds 32.8% of their missed shots this year. As a comparison, Duke grabs 35.1% of misses, and UNC got 38.4% of theirs this past season.

This year's MSU team is different than past iterations.

MChambers
04-02-2015, 01:25 PM
Agreed. This is where Winslow and Matt Jones will be big factors. Dawson and Valentine are strong, athletic, and aggressive. They get a lot of rebounds. In some ways, the keys against MSU are similar to the keys against UNC:
1. Make them a half-court team on offense
2. Guard their shotmaker (Trice) with your life
3. Keep them off the offensive glass

Do those things and we should absolutely win. Struggle with these, and MSU will make you pay.
Valentine is also a shotmaker.

Billy Dat
04-02-2015, 01:31 PM
This year's MSU team is different than past iterations.

Very true, they are a 3-point-shooting dependent squad who doesn't attack the offensive glass as effectively as in the past.

NM Duke Fan
04-02-2015, 02:17 PM
Very true, they are a 3-point-shooting dependent squad who doesn't attack the offensive glass as effectively as in the past.

I agree. In the past they have been quite the board crashers but they are not quite up to their usual standards. And they have to be concerned with how Winslow is fiercely grabbing rebounds of his own the last several games.

What I am really hoping for is a monster game by Okafor with this matchup after he has been held down a bit. It is time to DOMINATE!

budwom
04-02-2015, 02:31 PM
good info, but since they're a rapidly improving team, I wonder if their offensive rebounding has improved in the latter part of the season....?

roywhite
04-02-2015, 02:45 PM
good info, but since they're a rapidly improving team, I wonder if their offensive rebounding has improved in the latter part of the season....?

I see a possible role for Marshall in this game. He could be a big help on the defensive boards, can bounce guys around if occasion calls for it (and the game is loosely called), and since MSU is not real strong in the post, MP3 may get a few lob opportunities.

Something along the lines of 7 points and 8 rebounds would be great.

tbyers11
04-02-2015, 02:48 PM
good info, but since they're a rapidly improving team, I wonder if their offensive rebounding has improved in the latter part of the season....?

No it hasn't.

According to KPom's numbers, Mich St has an OR% of 33.8 for the entire season and a OR% of 34.1 for the conference only portion of their schedule. So they were pretty consistent over the year. In their last 10 games, their OR% is 29.7% and their last 4 (NCAA tourney) it is 26.3%. There is some variation over their NCAA games but nothing greatly above their average. In fact, in the UGA game they had their lowest OR% of the year.

Georgia 13.9%
Virginia 25.0%
Oklahoma 38.5%
Louisville 27.8%

Kedsy
04-02-2015, 02:59 PM
good info, but since they're a rapidly improving team, I wonder if their offensive rebounding has improved in the latter part of the season....?

Despite a good offensive rebounding effort against Oklahoma, overall in the NCAA tournament, Michigan State has corralled a paltry 26.6% of available offensive rebounds. In the Big 10 tournament, Michigan State had a strong offensive rebounding showing against Maryland but only grabbed 34.0% of available offensive rebounds for the tournament. The Spartans' post-season offensive rebounding percentage of 29.6% is actually a fair amount lower than their overall season percentage, which would strongly suggest it hasn't improved any in the latter part of the season.

EDIT: Ah, tbyers11 beat me to it.

Billy Dat
04-02-2015, 03:03 PM
I see a possible role for Marshall in this game. He could be a big help on the defensive boards, can bounce guys around if occasion calls for it (and the game is loosely called), and since MSU is not real strong in the post, MP3 may get a few lob opportunities.

Something along the lines of 7 points and 8 rebounds would be great.

The way the tournament has been progressing, K goes to Marshall, Amile and Grayson for Jah, Justise and Matt at the first substitution. If those guys can hold their own, they stay in for a bit, and then K subs back the starters according to what is happening on the court. Because of all the TV timeouts, fatigue for Jah isn't really a factor. Unless he is in foul trouble, I don't expect Marshall to get much PT against MSU has we have the size advantage.

CDu
04-02-2015, 03:21 PM
The way the tournament has been progressing, K goes to Marshall, Amile and Grayson for Jah, Justise and Matt at the first substitution. If those guys can hold their own, they stay in for a bit, and then K subs back the starters according to what is happening on the court. Because of all the TV timeouts, fatigue for Jah isn't really a factor. Unless he is in foul trouble, I don't expect Marshall to get much PT against MSU has we have the size advantage.

Yeah, I'd expect very little of Plumlee or Allen except for the case of injury or foul trouble. I'm thinking along the lines of 5 minutes each, and almost exclusively in the first half. That has seemed to be Coach K's M.O. in these big games: ride the thoroughbreds as long as they'll run.

I'd expect to see 40 minutes for Cook, close to 40 minutes for Tyus Jones and the rest for Winslow. About 30 minutes for Okafor. Jefferson and Matt Jones would get all but about 10 of the rest of the minutes (~45 minutes split between them).

And in the second half, it would likely be a 6-man rotation with Jefferson joining the starting 5 and Coach K exhausting 2-3 timeouts to go along with the scheduled TV timeouts.

subzero02
04-02-2015, 03:36 PM
I see a possible role for Marshall in this game. He could be a big help on the defensive boards, can bounce guys around if occasion calls for it (and the game is loosely called), and since MSU is not real strong in the post, MP3 may get a few lob opportunities.

Something along the lines of 7 points and 8 rebounds would be great.

If Plumlee grabs 8 rebounds in this game, MSU is in trouble. I do agree that Plumlee could have a role in this game. I just hope he plays under conrol and doesn't blow chances due to fumbling the ball.


I am really interested in hearing how the guys are moving during the open practice. We got a little banged up this last weekend. I think the Utah game took a bit out of us.

luvdahops
04-02-2015, 03:36 PM
good info, but since they're a rapidly improving team, I wonder if their offensive rebounding has improved in the latter part of the season....?

Their late season surge has much more to do with improved offensive play, especially from Trice, but also Valentine, Dawson and Forbes, who has played better as a 6th man than he had as a starter.

While this year's Spartans may not be quite as ferocious on the offensive glass as has been typical in the past, they are no slouches in that department. Dawson in particular is relentless. Thankfully, Justise has excelled on the defensive boards over the past 2 months, and Jah, Amile and Marshall are fully capable in that regard.

CDu
04-02-2015, 04:08 PM
Their late season surge has much more to do with improved offensive play, especially from Trice, but also Valentine, Dawson and Forbes, who has played better as a 6th man than he had as a starter.

While this year's Spartans may not be quite as ferocious on the offensive glass as has been typical in the past, they are no slouches in that department. Dawson in particular is relentless. Thankfully, Justise has excelled on the defensive boards over the past 2 months, and Jah, Amile and Marshall are fully capable in that regard.

Yeah, for those who haven't seen him, Dawson is sort of like the second-half-of-the-season version of Winslow... minus the ability to shoot or dribble. In terms of size, strength, and athleticism, they are very comparable. Really, since Winslow made the move to predominantly playing PF, the only major differences are the differences are in basketball skills (as mentioned, Dawson can't shoot or dribble very well). It will be interesting to see how these two counteract each other in terms of athletic brilliance and beastly rebounding. But I'd expect Winslow to have the upper hand overall offensively.

The two-headed monster of Schilling and Costello at center is also a pretty capable offensive rebounding player. Between Valentine, Dawson, Costello, and Schilling, MSU gets about 9 offensive rebounds per game. Any deficiency they have as an offensive rebounding team comes from the fact that guys like Forbes, Clark, Nairns, and Trice just don't get offensive rebounds (they combine for about 2 per game). In the first meeting, MSU outrebounded us by 10 despite the fact that we shot 54% from the field and 77% from the line (defensive rebounds are easier to get than offensive rebounds). They rebounded 13 of the 33 available misses on their end (per ESPN's box score), and 22 of the 27 misses on our end (again, per ESPN). So while they may not be as good a rebounding team as they have been in years' past, there are certainly some guys who provide cause for concern.

Kedsy
04-02-2015, 04:13 PM
So while they may not be as good a rebounding team as they have been in years' past, there are certainly some guys who provide cause for concern.

Michigan State is one of the top defensive rebounding teams in the country. But despite occasional offensive rebounding outbursts, on average they're a mediocre offensive rebounding team.

Troublemaker
04-02-2015, 04:19 PM
Kirk Goldsberry posted shot charts for the Final Four teams in a Grantland article: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-final-four-10-scorers-kentucky-wisconsin-duke-michigan-state/

This might be a little bit hard to see. If so, in the article, there are bigger versions for Okafor's, Cook's, and Winslow's shot charts


https://espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/duketop5_1152.jpg

CDu
04-02-2015, 04:28 PM
Michigan State is one of the top defensive rebounding teams in the country. But despite occasional offensive rebounding outbursts, on average they're a mediocre offensive rebounding team.

No disagreement there. Just noting that in the initial matchup, they were certainly a factor on the offensive glass (39.4%). If they do that again and the 3pt shooting discrepancy (we shot 50%, they shot 25%) disappears, we are in for a dogfight.

I think everyone agrees that if both teams play to their mean, we win. The question (aside from either team playing above/below their mean, which is unpredictable) is whether MSU can outeffort us, and offensive rebounding is one of those keys.

Kedsy
04-02-2015, 04:37 PM
No disagreement there. Just noting that in the initial matchup, they were certainly a factor on the offensive glass (39.4%). If they do that again and the 3pt shooting discrepancy (we shot 50%, they shot 25%) disappears, we are in for a dogfight.

I think everyone agrees that if both teams play to their mean, we win. The question (aside from either team playing above/below their mean, which is unpredictable) is whether MSU can outeffort us, and offensive rebounding is one of those keys.

Yeah, I agree with you and others who think the keys of the game will be effort, focus, and intensity.

Billy Dat
04-02-2015, 04:47 PM
Yeah, I agree with you and others who think the keys of the game will be effort, focus, and intensity.

Which hopefully won't be a problem with 70,000 in the stands, but there are no guarantees I guess..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBmGKSvWEAAC-mC.jpg:large

CDu
04-02-2015, 04:51 PM
Kirk Goldsberry posted shot charts for the Final Four teams in a Grantland article: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-final-four-10-scorers-kentucky-wisconsin-duke-michigan-state/

This might be a little bit hard to see. If so, in the article, there are bigger versions for Okafor's, Cook's, and Winslow's shot charts


https://espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/duketop5_1152.jpg

This is great! What impresses me is how little blue (or even green or yellow) we see on the Duke guys' charts. It just shows how good a job the staff has done in getting guys to focus on taking only the type of shots they are good at. It seems simple, but it is amazing how willing some guys are to take shots they aren't good at (I am lookingat you NBA Josh Smith).

flyingdutchdevil
04-02-2015, 04:51 PM
Kirk Goldsberry posted shot charts for the Final Four teams in a Grantland article: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-final-four-10-scorers-kentucky-wisconsin-duke-michigan-state/

This might be a little bit hard to see. If so, in the article, there are bigger versions for Okafor's, Cook's, and Winslow's shot charts


https://espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/duketop5_1152.jpg

This is too cool. Didn't realize that Winslow loooooves the left side of the three point line. Cook, not surprisingly, is efficiency from everywhere on the floor, including the mid-range (although he doesn't take many mid-rangers). Tyus is similar to Quinn, although he isn't as great in the paint. Matt Jones is really good on the left corner but not great on the right and has a low percentage in the paint.

I love these charts. They make scouting available to the hardcore fan.

MChambers
04-02-2015, 04:56 PM
Thinking about this, Justise should be fully focused, because his father was on a supposedly unbeatable team that unexpectedly lost in the Final Four (albeit in the finals).

jv001
04-02-2015, 05:09 PM
A distinction needs to be made here. Pomeroy's math isn't trying to answer the question who has the best defense. It just measures who has played the best defense over the entire season. As has been stated numerous times by numerous folks, this Duke team has had a focus problem all season. So we haven't played great defense this year. In the tourney though we have played as well as anyone defensively.

My post was more of a question than a statement regarding Duke's D per Ken Pom. It looks like we dropped a spot from 17 to 18 without playing a game? I just don't understand how that can happen? GoDuke!

Duvall
04-02-2015, 05:11 PM
My post was more of a question than a statement regarding Duke's D per Ken Pom. It looks like we dropped a spot from 17 to 18 without playing a game? I just don't understand how that can happen? GoDuke!

The NIT semifinals involved three teams Duke played this year. As the ratings of Miami, Temple and Stanford shifted with those games, Duke's changed slightly as well.

luvdahops
04-02-2015, 05:12 PM
My post was more of a question than a statement regarding Duke's D per Ken Pom. It looks like we dropped a spot from 17 to 18 without playing a game? I just don't understand how that can happen? GoDuke!

I suspect it has to do with 3 of our opponents this year - Stanford, Miami and Temple - playing in the NIT sem-finals on Tuesday night, and kenPom's numbers being recalculated based on those games.

MChambers
04-02-2015, 05:12 PM
My post was more of a question than a statement regarding Duke's D per Ken Pom. It looks like we dropped a spot from 17 to 18 without playing a game? I just don't understand how that can happen? GoDuke!

I assume that happened as a result of NIT semifinal games, and the teams we played (Stanford, Miami, and Temple) doing worse on offense than would have been predicted.

-jk
04-02-2015, 07:51 PM
Kirk Goldsberry posted shot charts for the Final Four teams in a Grantland article: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-final-four-10-scorers-kentucky-wisconsin-duke-michigan-state/

This might be a little bit hard to see. If so, in the article, there are bigger versions for Okafor's, Cook's, and Winslow's shot charts


https://espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/duketop5_1152.jpg

Fabulous story. Nice analytics. Well worth a read (and I'm sure the teams have studied these graphs all week).

I'm amused that Justise is a "strong finisher near the rim" at 59%, but Quinn is "a decent finisher, too" at 60%. I guess it's because he takes more 3's.

A bit annoyed their circle is the nba circle, though...

-jk

NashvilleDevil
04-02-2015, 09:02 PM
Just watched the Izzo/K joint press conference. Some good stuff in there and you can really sense the respect and friendship these two have for each other. Worth the 27 minutes.

Dukerati
04-02-2015, 09:28 PM
Just heard on the radio that the majority of the public betting money is on Duke minus five points. It ALWAYS makes me nervous when the betting public leans clearly in one direction.

OldPhiKap
04-02-2015, 10:54 PM
Just watched the Izzo/K joint press conference. Some good stuff in there and you can really sense the respect and friendship these two have for each other. Worth the 27 minutes.

Agreed, good watch. Better than the player PC.

Gonna be a war. Go Devils!

Atldukie79
04-02-2015, 11:23 PM
Love the charts. The color code can be deceiving...40% 3 point shooting shows as orange, while 41% shows as red...virtually the same rate, but present starkly different on the charts.

The most glaring reveal is the demise of the mid range jumper...like nonexistent.

MarkD83
04-03-2015, 06:37 AM
Love the charts. The color code can be deceiving...40% 3 point shooting shows as orange, while 41% shows as red...virtually the same rate, but present starkly different on the charts.

The most glaring reveal is the demise of the mid range jumper...like nonexistent.

With all of the talk about improving college basketball by shortening the shot clock and widening the lane, the demise of the mid-range game is something that is overlooked that is hurting offensive out-put in college. I don't watch many NBA games but the few I do watch I see great spacing by players and the ability of the players to hit the 12-15 foot jump shot. This is what causes defenses to not pack everyone in the paint and gives more room for everyone near the basket.

Duke3517
04-03-2015, 07:44 AM
Going to be another grind it out game for Duke. They have seen teams like Sparty all year. I'm still looking into Winslow being the difference in this game. Duke might have too much athleticism for Sparty to deal with.

Billy Dat
04-03-2015, 08:00 AM
With all of the talk about improving college basketball by shortening the shot clock and widening the lane, the demise of the mid-range game is something that is overlooked that is hurting offensive out-put in college. I don't watch many NBA games but the few I do watch I see great spacing by players and the ability of the players to hit the 12-15 foot jump shot. This is what causes defenses to not pack everyone in the paint and gives more room for everyone near the basket.

The analytics movement has resulted in a near consensus (at least for now) that the most efficient offense is one where the vast majority of shots are taken either at the rim, at the foul line, or from 3. As a result, the midrange game is disappearing. Guys probably don't make those shots because they are discouraged from taking them and therefore probably don't practice them.

MarkD83
04-03-2015, 08:31 AM
The analytics movement has resulted in a near consensus (at least for now) that the most efficient offense is one where the vast majority of shots are taken either at the rim, at the foul line, or from 3. As a result, the midrange game is disappearing. Guys probably don't make those shots because they are discouraged from taking them and therefore probably don't practice them.

So my solution is a 3 pt line at 12 ft from the basket and move the current 3 pt line back 1 or. 2 ft and make it worth 4 pts. Defense will no longer be able to pack everyone in the paint

MarkD83
04-03-2015, 08:36 AM
I would also speed up the game by making it a rule that if you are fouled in the act of shooting the basket counts and the game continues. The only foul shots are at 7 and 10 fouls if the fouls are non shooting

mgtr
04-03-2015, 08:40 AM
I would also speed up the game by making it a rule that if you are fouled in the act of shooting the basket counts and the game continues. The only foul shots are at 7 and 10 fouls if the fouls are non shooting

Excellent idea - would change the game much for the better. Still, however, refs discretion about what is a shot.

MarkD83
04-03-2015, 08:40 AM
I would keep the and one foul shot

blUDAYvil
04-03-2015, 09:32 AM
Just heard on the radio that the majority of the public betting money is on Duke minus five points. It ALWAYS makes me nervous when the betting public leans clearly in one direction.

May I ask why it makes you nervous? I'd rather have the betters on Duke's side in the off-chance some of them know something about the game/odds that I don't!

Troublemaker
04-03-2015, 09:45 AM
A couple videos to get pumped!

GoDuke's video of this week's buildup to Saturday: http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=209997790&DB_OEM_ID=4200

DBP's recap of the South Regional titled "Final Four Bound": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5FxYjN5E54
(Slow-motion and epic orchestral music always work so well on me!)

gus
04-03-2015, 09:50 AM
So my solution is a 3 pt line at 12 ft from the basket and move the current 3 pt line back 1 or. 2 ft and make it worth 4 pts. Defense will no longer be able to pack everyone in the paint

we could also make the basket twice as big. Or maybe install a funnel above it.

Or do like the MTV Jams show did, and have a second basket above the first one that's worth more points.

NSDukeFan
04-03-2015, 11:22 AM
A couple videos to get pumped!

GoDuke's video of this week's buildup to Saturday: http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=209997790&DB_OEM_ID=4200

DBP's recap of the South Regional titled "Final Four Bound": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5FxYjN5E54
(Slow-motion and epic orchestral music always work so well on me!)

Thanks for helping to get me even more excited for tomorrow. I checked out some more of the Blue Planet videos and enjoyed the first day at the Final Four one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LezQpKIb080
I especially liked Grayson Allen's whisper after watching MP3 pounding the ball to the floor for a photoshoot:
I was afraid he was going to lose the ball when he was dribbling it. Hilarious.

Atlanta Duke
04-03-2015, 11:26 AM
Grantland continues to throw love Duke's way - this morning's article is worth reading if only for the linked videos of moments from this season

Adjvjslacjskclklkxlc: Learning to Love Duke Basketball

Duke is the Millennium Falcon of Final Four teams. It doesn’t have enough parts, and it’s prone to breaking down in asteroid fields (getting blown out at home by Miami). But when the hyperdrive comes online and the stars stretch out … man, it’s something to see.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/adjvjslacjskclklkxlc-learning-to-love-duke-basketball/

I actually would be more comfortable if the standard disdain was being recycled as we head into the weekend:)

Neals384
04-03-2015, 11:51 AM
I would also speed up the game by making it a rule that if you are fouled in the act of shooting the basket counts and the game continues. The only foul shots are at 7 and 10 fouls if the fouls are non shooting

With that rule change, Jah might return for another season!

pfrduke
04-03-2015, 12:11 PM
Grantland continues to throw love Duke's way - this morning's article is worth reading if only for the linked videos of moments from this season

Adjvjslacjskclklkxlc: Learning to Love Duke Basketball

Duke is the Millennium Falcon of Final Four teams. It doesn’t have enough parts, and it’s prone to breaking down in asteroid fields (getting blown out at home by Miami). But when the hyperdrive comes online and the stars stretch out … man, it’s something to see.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/adjvjslacjskclklkxlc-learning-to-love-duke-basketball/

I actually would be more comfortable if the standard disdain was being recycled as we head into the weekend:)

"Love" is an overstatement. I understand it from the Andrew Sharps of the world, but I wish people with no underlying allegiances didn't feel obligated to fall all over themselves apologizing for saying that a Duke basketball team might be (gasp!) fun to watch.

flyingdutchdevil
04-03-2015, 12:37 PM
"Love" is an overstatement. I understand it from the Andrew Sharps of the world, but I wish people with no underlying allegiances didn't feel obligated to fall all over themselves apologizing for saying that a Duke basketball team might be (gasp!) fun to watch.

But he's not apologizing at all. He's not making excuses. If anything, he's expressing why this Duke team is fun to watch and disregarding all the dumb reasons that people don't like Duke.

I agree with AtlantaDuke - this is a good piece. It's one of the better, "don't hate Duke" articles out there. It calls out the BS that haters bring.

pfrduke
04-03-2015, 12:42 PM
But he's not apologizing at all. He's not making excuses. If anything, he's expressing why this Duke team is fun to watch and disregarding all the dumb reasons that people don't like Duke.

I agree with AtlantaDuke - this is a good piece. It's one of the better, "don't hate Duke" articles out there. It calls out the BS that haters bring.

You and I read it differently - I came away with a distinct vibe of "choke down the bile in your throat that you will of course feel if you start rooting for Duke because this team is fun." I wish that, rather than focusing so heavily on the first part of that quote, the focus of the column was simply that "this team is fun."

flyingdutchdevil
04-03-2015, 12:50 PM
You and I read it differently - I came away with a distinct vibe of "choke down the bile in your throat that you will of course feel if you start rooting for Duke because this team is fun." I wish that, rather than focusing so heavily on the first part of that quote, the focus of the column was simply that "this team is fun."

We read it the same way then. But I like the approach. He's clearly targeting that huge portion of the population who turns on the TV, sees Duke play, and either a) changes the channel or b) roots against them. I don't think this article is targeted towards a DBR fan base.

I've come to accept the fact that our school is so polarizing. You like Duke, or you hate Duke. There is rarely a middle ground. But I have noticed that there are so many more legitimate media outlets out there standing up for Duke. It's pretty refreshing.

Troublemaker
04-03-2015, 01:05 PM
Continuing the Key Stat gimmick for mojo purposes, I'll say the Key Stat for this game will be how many points Nairn / Forbes score.

As mentioned by others upthread, MSU's two leading scorers Trice and Valentine will be guarded by two very good perimeter defenders in Quinn and Matt. I'm not going to be so bullish as to predict a double shutdown by our guys, but I bet one of Trice or Valentine will be very limited in this game. And MSU will need to make up those points elsewhere in order to win the game. Maybe it'll be Dawson dominating Winslow inside or maybe they get a surprising amount of points out of Schilling/Costello/Wollenman somehow, but my first guess as to where the leak may occur is Duke's weakest perimeter defender, Tyus.

Nairn and Forbes have different strengths and would have to beat Tyus in different ways. Nairn with his penetration and Forbes by running Tyus off screens for open threes (legitimately concerning to me). But if Tyus holds his own here, I think Duke's looking very good to advance.

pfrduke
04-03-2015, 01:11 PM
Continuing the Key Stat gimmick for mojo purposes, I'll say the Key Stat for this game will be how many points Nairn / Forbes score.

As mentioned by others upthread, MSU's two leading scorers Trice and Valentine will be guarded by two very good perimeter defenders in Quinn and Matt. I'm not going to be so bullish as to predict a double shutdown by our guys, but I bet one of Trice or Valentine will be very limited in this game. And MSU will need to make up those points elsewhere in order to win the game. Maybe it'll be Dawson dominating Winslow inside or maybe they get a surprising amount of points out of Schilling/Costello/Wollenman somehow, but my first guess as to where the leak may occur is Duke's weakest perimeter defender, Tyus.

Nairn and Forbes have different strengths and would have to beat Tyus in different ways. Nairn with his penetration and Forbes by running Tyus off screens for open threes (legitimately concerning to me). But if Tyus holds his own here, I think Duke's looking very good to advance.

I know the last game is not necessarily the script for this game, but Dawson was very much the source of our trouble before - 8-10 from the field and 4 offensive boards. Forbes had a decent game - 9 points, 3-8 from deep - and Nairn was basically non-existent. I agree with you that Forbes is more concerning than Nairn in this game, but Dawson's the guy that really worries me.

MarkD83
04-03-2015, 02:41 PM
we could also make the basket twice as big. Or maybe install a funnel above it.

Or do like the MTV Jams show did, and have a second basket above the first one that's worth more points.

Yes. And my suggestions are just as ridiculous as thinking a shorter shot clock would increase scoring. If teams can't score in 35 sec why do we think a 30 sec clock would help. Everyone will still take the same shots only they will be rushed

KandG
04-03-2015, 03:40 PM
I like the approach. He's clearly targeting that huge portion of the population who turns on the TV, sees Duke play, and either a) changes the channel or b) roots against them. I don't think this article is targeted towards a DBR fan base.

I've come to accept the fact that our school is so polarizing. You like Duke, or you hate Duke. There is rarely a middle ground. But I have noticed that there are so many more legitimate media outlets out there standing up for Duke. It's pretty refreshing.


Totally agree on all points. Great article, and not just from "some guy at Grantland", but one of their very best writers. (Brian Phillips has subtly defended Duke in the past on social media, and pointed out the amusing hypocrisy of how some of the loudest disdain for Duke's so-called elitism comes from alums of other elitist schools).

It's been nearly 30 years since Coach K's first Final Four team went to Dallas, lost heartbreakingly in the final game, and captured the hearts of a large portion of the country. Since then the program's success and coverage of it has been huge. That's a long period of success with only a couple of relatively minor fallow periods. That's longer than the success period for teams like the Patriots or even Yankees of recent vintage, and closer to teams like the Lakers or Spurs of the last 20 years.

Irrationally polarizing perspectives are part of the territory with that kind of success. A certain portion of the "Duke hatred" phenomenon has always been especially dumb, even by the standards of sports hate. But I no longer sweat it. I was there in Dallas in 1986 and felt the pain of the loss to Louisville for nearly two weeks, wondering if another team as marvelous as the Dawkins-Amaker led group would ever come along.. I never thought that so many years later, the program would still be this successful and have yet another team as wonderful to watch as this year's group.

Sometimes I'd like for more people to like Duke, but I know what it's like to root for badly coached teams and badly run organizations, professional and collegiate, and I don't worry so hard anymore what other people think.

Billy Dat
04-03-2015, 03:51 PM
Totally agree on all points. Great article, and not just from "some guy at Grantland", but one of their very best writers. (Brian Phillips has subtly defended Duke in the past on social media, and pointed out the amusing hypocrisy of how some of the loudest disdain for Duke's so-called elitism comes from alums of other elitist schools).

It's been nearly 30 years since Coach K's first Final Four team went to Dallas, lost heartbreakingly in the final game, and captured the hearts of a large portion of the country. Since then the program's success and coverage of it has been huge. That's a long period of success with only a couple of relatively minor fallow periods. That's longer than the success period for teams like the Patriots or even Yankees of recent vintage, and closer to teams like the Lakers or Spurs of the last 20 years.

Phillips wrote a piece on K last year that I initially read as negative until others on this board encouraged me to reconsider/re-read...I did...and he is very clever in his nuance. I actually think this piece does a far better job than the "I Hate Chrisitian Laettner" 30 for 30 at identifying and examining (briefly) the real reasons for the evolution of Duke hate.

As we stand today, I think most neutral fans would root for Duke last out of the 4, but for the non-traditional reason that we are actually the least interesting story right now. Some are rooting for history and Kentucky to go undefeated. The anti-Kentucky contigent is either rooting for those lovably-goofy offensive savants from Wisconsin, or the Izzo-is-March-God scrappy Sparties.

However, if we wind up with a Kentucky v Duke final, I will be very very curious to see how the neutral fans root. It will be the ultimate test of the Duke hatred tsunami because no matter what has happened in the last 20+ years, to me, Kentucky v Duke on Monday night is the 1991 UNLV v Duke semifinal and, in one of the many things the Laettner doc got wrong, nearly everyone was pulling for Duke in that one. Outside of BBN, I wonder if Duke would attract the neutral fans should that match-up take place?

OldPhiKap
04-03-2015, 03:58 PM
Yes. And my suggestions are just as ridiculous as thinking a shorter shot clock would increase scoring. If teams can't score in 35 sec why do we think a 30 sec clock would help. Everyone will still take the same shots only they will be rushed

Exactly. All we would really get is MORE bad shots.

If they want more offense, they need to clean up the interior defense. Unless that is done, everything else is a gimmick.

Tripping William
04-03-2015, 04:11 PM
Note: I am not (in the least, even remotely) intending this post to be a commentary on the quality of the discourse in this thread.



Is there really still 26 hours until tipoff??! The . . . . wait . . . . is . . . . killin' . . . me!

(venting complete)

jv001
04-03-2015, 04:29 PM
I don't know what or if it means anything, but the Odds makers have Duke now favored by 5.5 points. Up a full point from opening. GoDuke!

rsvman
04-03-2015, 04:52 PM
we could also make the basket twice as big. Or maybe install a funnel above it.

Or do like the MTV Jams show did, and have a second basket above the first one that's worth more points.

I see that you're trying to mock Mark's ideas, but they're not completely ridiculous. If you think about it, the 3-point line doesn't really make all that much sense. Think about a situation where there is a replay to see whether the toe of a player's shoe is perhaps touching the line by, say, a half a centimeter. If it is, he gets two points, but if it's not, he gets three. That's rational how? Like the shot is 33% more difficult from 1 cm further away from the basket? It's an arbitrary line drawn on the court.

Take it even further in your mind for a minute. If a shot that's 22 feet away from the basket is worth more than one that's 10 feet away, how come a half-court shot isn't worth more points than a shot from 22 feet? And a 3/4-court shot worth more than a half-court shot? And while we're at it, maybe a lay-up ought to be worth less. A dunk, even less??!?

Now you might say that we have to dichotomize the point total of a made shot into either 2 points or 3 points because there's no way to make distance a continuous variable on a basketball court (even though distance is clearly a continuous variable in real life). I say "poppycock"! I'm envisioning a future in which the entire court is laid out electronically and points per made shot is a completely continuous variable. Your guy makes a shot from, say, 12.5 feet and you wait to see how many points it is worth. Then 2.4 points is added to your team's total. When somebody makes a shot from Dockery's spot you are delighted to find out that 4.6 points has been added. Final score of a game could well be Duke 114.7, Michigan State 103.9.

Scrap that, I have a better idea. The score on the scoreboard only indicates the DIFFERENCE between the two teams total scores. So the score I just wrote, above, would now read Duke 10.8. Announcers would say "Duke defeats Michigan State 10.8."

Wow. Talk about stream of consciousness. And after I was trying to support Mark's point, it comes off like I'm trying to make fun of it. Which I'm not. Because I think the devaluation of the mid-range jumper is a "friendly fire" tragedy of advent of the 3-point line. And I do think it would be great if the mid-range jumper could make a comeback.

jimsumner
04-03-2015, 05:16 PM
Note: I am not (in the least, even remotely) intending this post to be a commentary on the quality of the discourse in this thread.



Is there really still 26 hours until tipoff??! The . . . . wait . . . . is . . . . killin' . . . me!

(venting complete)

We could pass the time discussing whether it's "Is there really 26 hours . . ." or "Are there really 26 hours . . ." :)

OldPhiKap
04-03-2015, 06:05 PM
We could pass the time discussing whether it's "Is there really 26 hours . . ." or "Are there really 26 hours . . ." :)

Literally. ;-)

roywhite
04-03-2015, 06:23 PM
High.

I think we win this one and move on to Monday night. Too much talent; what does Jay Bilas say? "Count the pros" on each roster.

anonj
04-03-2015, 06:49 PM
but I have a question for those who study these types of things. A big IF - but if Duke were to defeat Michigan State and then beat Kentucky in the Finals - would this be the first team ever to beat every Final Four team in the same season? Much less, all away from home?

Like the use hyphens? Me neither :rolleyes:

WakeDevil
04-03-2015, 06:52 PM
One of the writers on the Powerlineblog site is a Maryland fan and has selected his all-time Duke players. He said he was sad to see Duke win but had a more fun time picking the greats.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/04/six-decades-of-excellence-dukes-all-time-basketball-greats.php

First Team:
Jason Williams (1999-2002)

He’s eighth on Duke’s all-time scoring list and every player ahead of him played four years (Williams played only three). He averaged 21.6 points per game in leading Duke to the national championship as a sophomore on 2000-01. Subjectively, there has never been an ACC point guard whom, as Maryland fan, I feared more as he dribbled up the court.

Johnny Dawkins (1982-86)

A product of Mackin High in Washington, DC, Dawkins is Duke’s second all-time leading scorer. He averaged 19.2 points during his career, on better than 50 percent shooting. In 1986, he led the Blue Devils all the way to the NCAA final game, averaging 20.2 points and making 55 percent of his shots. Dawkins is now the head basketball coach at Stanford.

Grant Hill (1990-94)

The stats are nice — e.g., 17.4 points per game on 58 percent shooting plus 6.4 rebounds per game as a junior — but they don’t tell the full story. Hill was a magical college player (and pro too, until injuries took their toll). He could do it all. That’s why he was 1994 ACC Player of the Year, a two-time All-American, and a two-time NCAA champion.

Christian Laettner (1988-92)

Lots of folks hate Christian Laettner, as a new ESPN documentary reminds us, and I’m not fond of him myself. But he’s the leading scorer in NCAA tournament history. He’s also Duke’s third all-time leading scorer and was the driving force on two national championship teams. As a senior, Laettner averaged 21.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. He shot .575 from the field and made a ridiculous 54 of his 97 3-point shots.

Mike Gminski (1976-80)

G-Man averaged 19.0 points and 10.2 rebounds during his four-year career. He made 53 percent of his career shots. Gminski was the star of the 77-78 team that lost in the NCAA finals to Louisville. He was first-team all-ACC for three years and ACC player of the year as a junior. Gminiski also picked up various first and second team All-American honors along the way.