MBB: Duke vs. Gonzaga, Reg Final (Sun 5:05 pm ET, CBS) Pregame/Ingame Thread

[hurleyfor3]

On the doorstep of the promised land.

[BlueandWhite]

On the doorstep of the promised land.

They just posted that the Louisville/likely to be MSU game is the early game...

[brevity]

They just posted that the Louisville/likely to be MSU game is the early game...

Yep.

Patrick Stevens (https://twitter.com/D1scourse/status/581671980253970432): Gonzaga-Duke tips off Sunday 5:05pm on CBS.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I'm expecting 8 pages of hand wringing and statistical analysis. If for no other reason than karmic consistence.

[hurleyfor3]

I'm expecting 8 pages of hand wringing

How does one literally hand-wring in writing, anyway?

[brevity]

I'm expecting 8 pages of hand wringing and statistical analysis. If for no other reason than karmic consistence.

CBS Sports allows you to compare any 2 teams. It was for bracketology purposes, but I think we can gauge our Gonzaga concern by comparing them to North Florida (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GONZAG/UNF). The Ospreys have 10 more wins against teams with an RPI of 200 or more, so there's that.

[jacone21]

I hope Few and every Zag player has terrible nightmares about Justise coming to get them. Kinda like the second Friday the 13th movie, but with Justise instead of Jason. Ki Ki Ki... Ma Ma Ma!


It's late and I'm delirious.


Go Duke!

[moonpie23]

we play another dumb final 3 min and we're toast......

[neemizzle]

I hope Few and every Zag player has terrible nightmares about Justise coming to get them. Kinda like the second Friday the 13th movie, but with Justise instead of Jason. Ki Ki Ki... Ma Ma Ma!


It's late and I'm delirious.


Go Duke!

This post wins on all levels. :D

[hurleyfor3]

...and statistical analysis.

I'll start. (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_nrg_effect)

[Wander]

I'll start. (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_nrg_effect)

Second: our defense is all the way up to 27th!

[uh_no]

Second: our defense is all the way up to 27th!

noticed that. big defensive performance over a highly ranked KP team will have a big effect on a relatively poor defense.

[Wander]

noticed that. big defensive performance over a highly ranked KP team will have a big effect on a relatively poor defense.

But it's also been trending upward for a while, and also matches everyone's "eye test" - including Coach K's - that the defense has in fact improved a lot lately.

[Son of Jarhead]

I'll start. (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_nrg_effect)

Let's hope we shoot 3's on Sunday the way we did against Baylor in 2010... 11 of 23 for 47.8%. (& that was with Kyle going 0-5)

We will have to play better than we did tonight to advance to the FF. Quin seemed really annoyed by something tonight... I'm expecting him to light it up on Sunday. Got to get the big guy untracked, too. Let's Go Duke!!!!!

[Troublemaker]

I'll start. (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_nrg_effect)

Duke won only ~40% of jump balls (opening tips + overtime tips) this season.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/jump_dall_data

[neemizzle]

So wait, we only made three 3's in that game? That's bananas man. If this was December, everyone here would be like "there's no chance we're going to the tournament!" or "we can't win that way!"

Interesting that the Zags made that same amount tonight.

Intrigued, nonetheless.

We finally get the matchup we talked about secretly though. Gonzaga finally has to play someone in a big setting with a big moment on the line for their program. Lots at stake for them, but also lots at stake for us. We have to shoot well, and they do too.

Matchups I'm looking forward to are that inside matchup with Zags big guys vs ours, Winslow and Wiltjer, and Pangos vs Tyus/Quinn.

MARCH!

[Newton_14]

The negativity around here is getting really annoying. This team blew out their opponents last weekend and handled their business tonight. Give it a rest already.

[neemizzle]

The negativity around here is getting really annoying. This team blew out their opponents last weekend and handled their business tonight. Give it a rest already.

I agree with you, 100%. They've done nothing but exceed media (and fans') expectations of them all year. If I remember correctly, everyone was ready to give up on them after State, then Miami, then after Notre Dame, then after Sheed's dismissing, and they've rose to the occasion.

In the end, it is just basketball. But I do agree, they're handling business. Let's hope it continues!

[subzero02]

We open as a 2.5 point favorite over Gonzaga according to vegasinsider... We are the only ACC team that is favored ( notre dame +11, louisville +2.5)

[InSpades]

The Wiltjer vs. Winslow matchup at the 4 is going to be very interesting. Winslow giving up 4 inches to Wiltjer... but Wiltjer is going to need help if Winslow drives on him. Winslow has been amazing though...

Going to need someone else to step it up on Sunday. Okafor has to win the matchup w/ Karnowski and then we need 1 of our guards to step up and have a big one. I'm looking at you Quinn. Gotta get that outside shot falling. Also have to D up Pangos like we know you can!

So excited for this. Been a great year... everything from here is gravy but another Final Four would be sweet. Get it done Devils!

[MarkD83]

The negativity around here is getting really annoying. This team blew out their opponents last weekend and handled their business tonight. Give it a rest already.

In order to maintain my superstitious habit that I did not do in the Utah pregame thread, I do have to add one last piece of sarcastic negativity. "Brevity" said that we should compare Gonzaga to North Florida and they were the best 16th seed that we would have lost to if they hadn't lost to Robert Morris....so we are doomed....:) (See Robert Morris - North Florida thread for the genesis of this ritual.)

In fact I actually like where Duke is at this point. In the tournament, there is always one game or one segment of time in a game that a team has to respond to things not going well. Duke has done this multiple times and with each time I believe their confidence is growing.

[Edouble]

I hope Few and every Zag player has terrible nightmares about Justise coming to get them. Kinda like the second Friday the 13th movie, but with Justise instead of Jason. Ki Ki Ki... Ma Ma Ma!


It's late and I'm delirious.


Go Duke!

LOL! Who are you and why aren't we friends in real life?

[KandG]

So wait, we only made three 3's in that game? That's bananas man. If this was December, everyone here would be like "there's no chance we're going to the tournament!" or "we can't win that way!"

Interesting that the Zags made that same amount tonight.



Turns out that there may be a reasonable explanation for that a/k/a the NRG/Reliant Stadium effect, per KenPom's latest blog post:

"Whether it’s the Final Four where the entire stadium is exposed, or the configuration for this year’s regionals where a giant black curtain is hanging well behind the basket, it appears that it’s only slightly easier to make 3-point shots at NRG Stadium than it is on an aircraft carrier."

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_nrg_effect

Thank goodness Justise Winslow seems immune to the NRG effect so far.

[neemizzle]

Turns out that there may be a reasonable explanation for that a/k/a the NRG/Reliant Stadium effect, per KenPom's latest blog post:

"Whether it’s the Final Four where the entire stadium is exposed, or the configuration for this year’s regionals where a giant black curtain is hanging well behind the basket, it appears that it’s only slightly easier to make 3-point shots at NRG Stadium than it is on an aircraft carrier."

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_nrg_effect

Thank goodness Justise Winslow seems immune to the NRG effect so far.

I saw that post. I find it interesting. I also look at it like an advantage. We played in Cuse's dome this season, though the one we're in right now is a little different, but still a dome. Winslow had like what, three 3's in that game, right? So maybe he's the one that understands it. Just need to get everyone else on that page.

Teams have those nights though, where things aren't falling (ie Notre Dame 2 weeks ago). It's funny what a difference 2 weeks make, though I'm not about to compare ND to Utah, still, our defense looks much better from that game.

Idk. Scoring 3's are obviously important to our game, but not so important than years past IMO. Years past, we've lived off of them. That team that lost to Nova (blown out by them if I remember right) was definitely heavy on them. Having a Winslow-like player that does it all, a penetrating guard in Tyus (Grayson sometimes) and Okafor down low certainly adds options.

[Reilly]

1989 and 1990 were the only two years where we went to the Final Four but had not won either the ACC regular season or the ACC Tourney (or both) first.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/

Win Sunday and and we are champs of something, and can gather some hammock-building material.

[dukelifer]

Zags are a very good team. Good balance - seniors and a huge big guy who can clog the middle. Duke needs to use their speed in this one. Duke should be faster at every position. Zags pass it well and have big guys that can shoot. So Duke needs to play smart. This will be a game of runs. Duke has a good chance to advance but they will have to earn it. Zags will not be scared.

[porkpa]

I think that when its all done and the records are all computed, the guy who will leave the greatest legacy from this team will be Justise Winslow. We ain't seen noting yet from this kid. He's a clone of all the best of Jordan, Pippin and Barclay. He's just a baby in his infancy. The best is yet to come. I selfishly hope that he honors us with one more year.

[NM Duke Fan]

I really noticed how Tony Parker had a tough time holding his ground against Karnowski last night, and Parker is a very strong guy. Karnowski has a baby hook that is murder if he gets it close enough to the basket, has some other good moves, and is a superb passer. It will be very interesting to see how the defense approaches dealing with him. In addition, Sabonis is already becoming quite a force, he is going to be a great one. I haven't seen enough of Gonzaga, but do they ever play Karnowski, Sabonis, and Wiltjer at the same time? That is a lot of height!

Jah must stay out of foul trouble, and Plumlee and Jefferson are going to really need to play their A games.

This team has been a bit too dependent on Winslow in the tournament, and anyone is capable of having a game where they struggle. Time for a more balanced level of excellence. Duke needs to cut down on silly turnovers. And Matt needs to have better focus on offense.

I could see this game going either way. I wish Gonzaga were in a different bracket, they are a very likeable team and coach, and I would have liked to see them take a shot at Kentucky, without having to go through Duke first!

[Tripping William]

First team to 80 wins. The Zags are really good, but I like our chances.

[jv001]

What a great win for our guys and what a show that Justise put on. He's been playing fantastic for over a month now. The Utes had a great game play for Jah. They doubled and most of the time tripled team him and it worked for the most part as Jah had 4 turnovers trying to pass out of the jail they put him in. Quinn and Tyus stepped up and hit some really big free throws for us. The only negative thing that I thought happened was when we went into the stall around the 8 minute mark. It almost backfired as we lost most of our 15 point lead. But once again Justise stepped up and took us out of our stagnant offense with a big shot. Coach K was really fired up and gave him a hand slap. To me, that was the key play of the game. Now on to the Zags. GoDuke!

[cptnflash]

This is a really interesting matchup. Two very similar teams - both feature elite offences and decent defences. Gonzaga is bigger and more experienced, we're quicker and more talented. Normally you'd expect this game to be very high scoring, but the NRG Arena factor is a wild card. It's too bad Andre doesn't have any eligibility left!

If we faceguard Pangos and Wiltjer, force Karnowski to turn over his left shoulder, and make a few 3's ourselves, we'll win.

[MarkD83]

I think that when its all done and the records are all computed, the guy who will leave the greatest legacy from this team will be Justise Winslow. We ain't seen noting yet from this kid. He's a clone of all the best of Jordan, Pippin and Barclay. He's just a baby in his infancy. The best is yet to come. I selfishly hope that he honors us with one more year.

There was an interesting graphic about Justise's stats in the NCAAs compared to a few past Duke greats. The name that was on the list twice was Gene Banks and Justise reminds me a little of Tinkerbell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTUprxXigeo

I can easily imagine Justise in the linked video going against any number of big men left in the Elite 8.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

We will have to play better than we did tonight to advance to the FF. Quin seemed really annoyed by something tonight... I'm expecting him to light it up on Sunday.

Was it his ankle?

[bluenorth]

This should be an awesome game. The Zags may try to have Karnowski cover Okafor without help early, which would be fun to watch. Karnowski will bang just as much as Okafor. At the other end if Okafor doesn't step up his defence, Karnowski could have a big night. Wiltjerwiltjer can't handle Winslow, but we might see Bell on Winslow instead. Wesley is also a threat to do damage. But the key is Kevin Pangos. Even if he's not scoring he is the engine for the Zags. He rarely forces things, and is outstanding at reading the game.

[jv001]

I know this could go on the Dork Polls Thread, but I'll post it here. Ken Pom's top 9 are:
1) UK
2) Arizona
3) Wisconsin
4) Virginia
5) Villanova
6) Duke
7) Zags
8) Utah
9) The Irish

I see no way that Virginia is top 4 at this time of year. They are probably top 8 but not top 4. Villanova is probably 8 or 9 but not #5. I think the top 4 are: UK, Duke, Wisconsin and Arizona. The next four are probably: Virginia, Irish, Villanova and choose from; Michigan State, Utah, Louisville, Uncheats, Iowa State and Wichita State for #10. I don't know how Ken get's his numbers/ratings but I have to believe the numbers are calculated from the very first day of the season. If that's the case, I can see why Duke is rated #6. But Duke's defense has improved greatly over the course of the season and our freshman are not freshman any longer. Coach K and his staff have done a fantastic job of coaching this season. I like Pomeroy's stats but don't take them for gospel. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

How does one literally hand-wring in writing, anyway?

Now that cursive is no longer taught, it's a big problem.

[wilson]

I know this could go on the Dork Polls Thread, but I'll post it here. Ken Pom's top 9 are:
1) UK
2) Arizona
3) Wisconsin
4) Virginia
5) Villanova
6) Duke
7) Zags
8) Utah
9) The Irish

I see no way that Virginia is top 4 at this time of year. They are probably top 8 but not top 4. Villanova is probably 8 or 9 but not #5. I think the top 4 are: UK, Duke, Wisconsin and Arizona. The next four are probably: Virginia, Irish, Villanova and choose from; Michigan State, Utah, Louisville, Uncheats, Iowa State and Wichita State for #10. I don't know how Ken get's his numbers/ratings but I have to believe the numbers are calculated from the very first day of the season. If that's the case, I can see why Duke is rated #6. But Duke's defense has improved greatly over the course of the season and our freshman are not freshman any longer. Coach K and his staff have done a fantastic job of coaching this season. I like Pomeroy's stats but don't take them for gospel. GoDuke!So are you saying you don't believe Gonzaga is worthy of inclusion among the top ~10 teams? You don't mention them anywhere here.

[jv001]

So are you saying you don't believe Gonzaga is worthy of inclusion among the top ~10 teams? You don't mention them anywhere here.

Mental lapse, Zags in my opinion are #4 and then drop everyone else down a notch. Sorry. GoDuke!

Virginia is a tough call but in my eyes they were not the same team after Anderson was hurt. Even after he came back. Had he not been lost for a good amount of time, I think the Cavaliers would be in the top 4 for sure. GoDuke!

[gurufrisbee]

I'm still a little too rooted in reality to be 100% glowing about Duke....:rolleyes:

The Zags are a really good team. Before the bracket came out I was strongly thinking of them as a Final Four level team.

Karnawski is another big guy for Okafor to deal with - I hope he can do better than he did against Poetl. We need it.

The Zag guards are very solid defensively, which is tough because we need our guards to start hitting three's again.

Witjer is really good, but I think we are set up great with Winslow on him. He's not really a post threat and he's not athletic enough to get away from Justise's defense.

Pangos and Bell don't really drive great, which is good because we've had some trouble stopping guard penetration. Wesley does though. We really need Matt to step his game up. It feels like he is slumping, especially the last four games. We really need him to give the home state fans a bounce back show tomorrow.

I feel like Plumlee and Amile could be big difference makers. The Zags aren't a great rebounding team and shooting has been a struggle in that canyon of an arena. Getting the edge on the glass will be big.

It's going to be a tough game - if we can get our offense back clicking though we can definitely win it.

[DukeAlumBS]

Gentlemen, how do we stand head to head in games VS Gonzaga. Memory tells me the past few time we have beat them. Either during season or in the NCAA tourney.
Actually their conference if someone may know.
I feel we have done well in these match ups.
Thank you
Jimmy

[NashvilleDevil]

I'm still a little too rooted in reality to be 100% glowing about Duke....:rolleyes:

The Zags are a really good team. Before the bracket came out I was strongly thinking of them as a Final Four level team.

Karnawski is another big guy for Okafor to deal with - I hope he can do better than he did against Poetl. We need it.

The Zag guards are very solid defensively, which is tough because we need our guards to start hitting three's again.

Witjer is really good, but I think we are set up great with Winslow on him. He's not really a post threat and he's not athletic enough to get away from Justise's defense.

Pangos and Bell don't really drive great, which is good because we've had some trouble stopping guard penetration. Wesley does though. We really need Matt to step his game up. It feels like he is slumping, especially the last four games. We really need him to give the home state fans a bounce back show tomorrow.

I feel like Plumlee and Amile could be big difference makers. The Zags aren't a great rebounding team and shooting has been a struggle in that canyon of an arena. Getting the edge on the glass will be big.

It's going to be a tough game - if we can get our offense back clicking though we can definitely win it.

They are tough but who have they played? I was worried about Utah because the Pac-12 is a decent basketball conference. Any team in this round is capable of winning but I think Duke wins this one more comfortably than the sweet 16 game.

[gumbomoop]

This is a really interesting matchup. Two very similar teams - both feature elite offences and decent defences. Gonzaga is bigger and more experienced, we're quicker and more talented. Normally you'd expect this game to be very high scoring, but the NRG Arena factor is a wild card. It's too bad Andre doesn't have any eligibility left!

If we faceguard Pangos and Wiltjer, force Karnowski to turn over his left shoulder, and make a few 3's ourselves, we'll win.

Very good points here, compact summary. Yes, even more interesting set of matchups than v. Utah. Zags play 7-8, with strong 3 for rotating the 2 interior positions, one of whom is dangerous stretch-4. Play 4 guys for 3 perimeter positions, roughly same size as our guys. They're a little bigger out there, not much.


... the key is Kevin Pangos. Even if he's not scoring he is the engine for the Zags. He rarely forces things, and is outstanding at reading the game.

Agree. Pangos is whirling dervish, but not out of control. Don't know which of Pangos/Bell will guard Tyus/Quinn, and vice-versa.

Zags very impressive inside and out, excellent 3-bombers. Hope this lousy venue messes with their 3-bombers more than with ours. Need a couple of baskets from Amile, a few rebounds by Marshall, and one 3-bomb and an and-one from Grayson.

[DBFAN]

They are tough but who have they played? I was worried about Utah because the Pac-12 is a decent basketball conference. Any team in this round is capable of winning but I think Duke wins this one more comfortably than the sweet 16 game.

I agree 100 percent. Especially if Gonzaga only wants to run. It would be in Gonzagas best interest to think about wanting to run with Duke. Gonzaga has not played the talent level of Duke this year, and they may be in for a surprise as well to find out that Rumors of Dukes "bad defence" has been greatly exaggerated. Of course Gonzaga could win, but I find it so amazing all the people on Twitter saying that Duke needs to play better to beat them. Apparently they all missed the amazing game that Gonzaga played last night, they didn't notice that the Zags shot 3-14 from beyond the arc. It might be a good idea if they played better as well

[dukelion]

Good to see Amile play well last night because him and/or Marshall will be needed against the Zags since Sabonis plays lots of minutes alongside Karnowksi with Wiltjer at the three.

I wonder if K is comfortable with playing Justise on Sabonis and Matt on Wiltjer?

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW Dickie V is picking the 'Zags.

Go Duke!

[jv001]

Duke currently favored by 2.5 points by the Odds Makers. The Blue Devils have covered the spread for most of the season and I hoping the game is not that close and Duke wins going away. A guy can hope can't he? GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

They are tough but who have they played? I was worried about Utah because the Pac-12 is a decent basketball conference. Any team in this round is capable of winning but I think Duke wins this one more comfortably than the sweet 16 game.

I would be surprised. I'm gearing up for a Baylor-type regional final.

Duke under Coach K has waltzed to a Final Four (winning 4 games comfortably) two or three times before, but it was always, in part, due to the bracket opening up for Duke. (Although one could argue that the '99 team didn't need the bracket to open up.) This year, the bracket hasn't opened up for Duke at all, and I think Gonzaga is a legitimate regional final opponent.

The point spread opened at 2.5, the majority of the bets are on Duke, and the spread hasn't moved. Not a great omen for Duke, either.

[DukeSean]

Finally decided to make the drive down to Houston for the game. I've heard that Duke fans are in sections 125 and 126, among others. Can anyone confirm this before I drop a couple Benjamins on this game?

[NashvilleDevil]

I would be surprised. I'm gearing up for a Baylor-type regional final.

Duke under Coach K has waltzed to a Final Four (winning 4 games comfortably) two or three times before, but it was always, in part, due to the bracket opening up for Duke. (Although one could argue that the '99 team didn't need the bracket to open up.) This year, the bracket hasn't opened up for Duke at all, and I think Gonzaga is a legitimate regional final opponent.

The point spread opened at 2.5, the majority of the bets are on Duke, and the spread hasn't moved. Not a great omen for Duke, either.

I am not expecting a 99 Duke thrashing of Temple but I think Duke has a double digit lead most of the 2nd half and wins by 10-12. Gonzaga has been a good program the last 15 years and they have finally made it back to the elite 8 for the first time since 1999.

I feel the same about Gonzaga that I did about SDSU, by the numbers they look great but Gonzaga did not really play any one other than Arizona. Duke is going to be the best team that Gonzaga has played all year and after yesterday's so-so showing against Utah I think Duke will come out strong. Vegas nailed the Utah line but I think they are really undervaluing Duke here.

[Tripping William]

FWIW Dickie V is picking the 'Zags.

Go Duke!

Excellent. Let them get the K.O.D.

[Henderson]

The psychological hedge is on, and I need to lose $100.

Duke was a 2.5 pt. favorite this morning, so I went to the local sports book and put $100 on Gonzaga.

If Duke wins by at least 3, I'm ecstatic to lose $100 to see Duke in the Final Four.

If Duke loses, I can salve my wounds with $90.90.

If Duke wins by 1 or 2, I win on both ends.

I want to lose $100. So send your karmal waves to the team. And by way of bonus, if Duke wins by 3 or more, everyone on DBR gets to say, "Henderson lost $100 betting against Duke. Ha ha."

So do what you can to help me lose $100. It's in your best interest. More importantly, if I don't lose money today, I'm going to be sad.

[gurufrisbee]

They are tough but who have they played? I was worried about Utah because the Pac-12 is a decent basketball conference. Any team in this round is capable of winning but I think Duke wins this one more comfortably than the sweet 16 game.

Well they came a lot closer to beating Arizona than Utah ever did.

[Saratoga2]

I watched the Gonzaga game and what I saw was that they had a lot of problems scoring against a relatively weak UCLA team. I think the first half score was around 18 to 10 with less than 6 minutes remaining. UCLA was unable to generate much offense and missed shot after shot, even though some shots were open. Later, Gonzaga found posting inside worked for them and they scored more easily and pulled away.

Gonzaga is large inside and the 5's have reasonable skill but are not guys who can run that well (few 7 footers can). I don't see their team as a juggernaut, just a good tough team that Duke doesn't match up with size wise but we should have a speed and quickness advantage. We need 40 minutes of effort at each position. We fortunatley have Grayson, Amile and MP3 available to keep us fresh. My hope is that our players move without the ball on offense instead of becoming static. Guys like Quinn, Tyus and Grayson need space to score and they can get that space by staying in motion. Justise is constantly in motion and can be a nightmare to guard. I suspect that will continue against Gonzaga.

I may be wrong, but it appears Grayson is reluctant to put up a three lately and has begun to defer too much to the starters. We need all the competent shooters to feel they should pull the trigger when they have an opportunity. The benefit of experience is to know when to pass and when to take the shot. If Quinn is constantly covered, we will need other sources of points.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'm a numbers guy, so I'll take a stab at putting together a stats analysis of this matchup.

Gonzaga is a very good team and would be a worthy member of the Final Four. I'd rather not see that happen and several factors play in Duke's favor. First, the odds are in Duke's favor. Vegas has the line at -2.5, which is better odds that have been given to MSU (-2.0) and Arizona (-1.0) in their Elite 8 games. Vegas thinks Duke is the best bet out of those three to make it to Indianapolis. Kentucky, for what it's worth, is at -11.0 over Notre Dame.

I'm a big fan of Five Thirty Eight (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#mens), the blog and now network of Nate Silver of baseball and elections predictions fame. Silver's model has Duke as having a 59% chance of winning, down slightly from the 66% odds over Utah. That's a little bit better than Michigan State's chances (58%) over Louisville and a little worse than Arizona's (60%) over Wisconsin. The people that get paid to make projections give Duke a fairly decent shot at this game.

Let's also not forget that, while Ken Pomeroy's model really likes Utah and Gonzaga, Duke is still ranked ahead of both this year. Pomeroy's models give a lot of information on teams, more than just a ranking. They show, for example, that Duke's offensive efficiency is 3rd best in the nation while Gonzaga's is 4th. Gonzaga has the highest field goal percentage in the country, by the way. Where does this proficiency advantage come from for Duke? I would say rebounding. With Justise Winslow and Jahlil Okafor, Duke has two guys that can keep offensive possessions going. This skills - getting offensive rebounds - is the best offensive trait of Amile Jefferson. Marshall Plumlee is pretty good at it, too. For Gonzaga, they are just ok at it. Kyle Wiltjer is their best rebounder, but he has fewer offensive boards (49) than Domantis Sabonis (81) on the year. He's tall and gets boards from the stretch-4 spot. By comparison, Okafor has 126 and Jefferson is second at 85. Let's also remember that Pomeroy shows that Gonzaga has gone up against lesser talent all year. Their opponents offensive efficiency was 77th and defensive efficiency was 122nd. Duke's stats were 7th and 22nd, respectively. So they do get rebounds, but have been mostly of the defensive variety and against inferior opponents. Duke presents a real test for their ability to prevent Duke from getting second and third chances.

As for the matchups, Gonzaga presents great size but not so great athleticism. Karnowski is big, 7'1" and 288 pounds. Be he's not particularly mobile. If Gonzaga elects to play Okafor one-on-one, I can see Jahlil having a lot of success spinning around the Polish big man or taking him out to the mid-range or perimeter and driving around him. If they do double Okafor, Winslow and the guards should find a lot of room to cut to the basket or swing it around for open shots. Gonzaga just won't be able to close as quickly as did Utah last night. They only average 3 blocks a game versus 5 per game from Utah. On the perimeter, Tyus, Matt, Quinn, and Grayson should find their counterparts to be about the same size but a little slower. Without a rim protector, they could find a lot of success driving to the basket.

The key to the game, in my opinion, is going to be Justise Winslow versus Kyle Wiltjer. These two are matchup nightmares. Wiltjer can really hit it from range, where he shoots about 47% of his attempts. Whereas Kevin Pangos (63% of attempts) and Gary Bell, Jr. (62%) make most of their field goal attempts beyond the arc, Wiltjer takes most of his shots inside the arc. Winslow will have to challenge the three, but he'll have to make sure Wiltjer doesn't drive to the lane or post up. Justise has the strength to do this, too. He gives up 4 inches of height, but he's so solid and athletic. If Winslow wins this matchup, Duke should be in very good shape. Alternatively, Duke could elect to play Jefferson on Wiltjer with Winslow getting a much smaller player to guard.

The keys to the game, for me, will be keeping Pangos and Bell, Jr. from scoring from deep and preventing Wiltjer from getting many open looks. On offensive, getting rebounds and having our guards go to the hoop should lead the team to victory. It won't be easy, but it should be a lot of fun!

[wilson]

The psychological hedge is on, and I need to lose $100.

Duke was a 2.5 pt. favorite this morning, so I went to the local sports book and put $100 on Gonzaga.

If Duke wins by at least 3, I'm ecstatic to lose $100 to see Duke in the Final Four.

If Duke loses, I can salve my wounds with $90.90.

If Duke wins by 1 or 2, I win on both ends.

I want to lose $100. So send your karmal waves to the team. And by way of bonus, if Duke wins by 3 or more, everyone on DBR gets to say, "Henderson lost $100 betting against Duke. Ha ha."

So do what you can to help me lose $100. It's in your best interest. More importantly, if I don't lose money today, I'm going to be sad.I am here to help ANY time you're looking to lose $100. PM me for mailing info.

[Tripping William]

My keys to the game:

(1) If we build a 17-point second-half lead, we must hold it.

(2) Please don't let a Gonzaga reserve suffer a gruesome leg fracture.

[DU82]

Finally decided to make the drive down to Houston for the game. I've heard that Duke fans are in sections 125 and 126, among others. Can anyone confirm this before I drop a couple Benjamins on this game?

The sections are correct. I wouldn't drop that much, though. Face value is $125, but I'm sure you'll be able to find some for a lot less.

[gcashwell]

I don't like that gonzaga has so many upperclassmen. I tend to go with experience in the tournament.

[Troublemaker]

I don't like that gonzaga has so many upperclassmen. I tend to go with experience in the tournament.

Yep, time to bring the focus back to the Zags.

Besides the experience (Zags start 3 seniors and 2 juniors), they've also only lost two games all year. One was an overtime game AT Arizona. The other was a 3-pt loss to BYU. So, losing by > 3 points would be a first for this Gonzaga team this season. We can pooh-pooh their schedule but they played a tougher one than Butler in 2010, and Butler gave us a heck of game. I'm expecting a great regional final tomorrow.

[Henderson]

In both the Few and Krzyzewski pre-game pressers today, the coaches were asked a lot of questions about each other, and they expressed genuine respect for each other and the other's program. I liked it.

A couple times, K mentioned humility as one of the things he really likes about Few. And at one point he expanded on that, saying Few is a humble guy who doesn't advertise himself. I wonder what counter-example(s) he might have been thinking of.

[hurleyfor3]

So do what you can to help me lose $100. It's in your best interest. More importantly, if I don't lose money today, I'm going to be sad.

Way ahead of you. I've already budgeted a trip to Indianapolis. So if Duke loses, I "win" a grand or so.

[Troublemaker]

We can pooh-pooh their schedule

The WCC stinks, but 20-1 and a double championship should still be respected. And Gonzaga's non-conference results are completely consistent with being a 1 or 2 seed.

Beat SMU by 16
Beat Georgia by 12
Beat St. John's in MSG by 7 (and not needing a great comeback to do so)
The aforementioned overtime loss AT Arizona
Beat UCLA by 13 in Pauley Pavilion
Beat Memphis by 18
Beat Iowa by 19 in the Round of 32
Beat UCLA again by 12 in the Sweet 16

[Troublemaker]

Way ahead of you. I've already budgeted a trip to Indianapolis. So if Duke loses, I "win" a grand or so.

That, friends, is an emotional hedge.

I respect your $100 hedge, too, Hendo

[Henderson]

The WCC stinks, but 20-1 and a double championship should still be respected. And Gonzaga's non-conference results are completely consistent with being a 1 or 2 seed.

Beat SMU by 16
Beat Georgia by 12
Beat St. John's in MSG by 7 (and not needing a great comeback to do so)
The aforementioned overtime loss AT Arizona
Beat UCLA by 13 in Pauley Pavilion
Beat Memphis by 18
Beat Iowa by 19 in the Round of 32
Beat UCLA again by 12 in the Sweet 16

It's not their record that of achievement that concerns me. It's the players. They've got good ones.

[Henderson]

Way ahead of you. I've already budgeted a trip to Indianapolis. So if Duke loses, I "win" a grand or so.

Oooh. That's good.

[Troublemaker]

It's not their record that of achievement that concerns me. It's the players. They've got good ones.

Agreed. Just trying to bring more clarity to the schedule stuff.

They've played a bunch of good non-conference teams by now and mostly beat those teams down.

Duke is roughly on Arizona's level, but an overtime loss to Zona on the road is still an impressive showing by the Zags.

[uh_no]

The WCC stinks, but 20-1 and a double championship should still be respected. And Gonzaga's non-conference results are completely consistent with being a 1 or 2 seed.

Beat SMU by 16
Beat Georgia by 12
Beat St. John's in MSG by 7 (and not needing a great comeback to do so)
The aforementioned overtime loss AT Arizona
Beat UCLA by 13 in Pauley Pavilion
Beat Memphis by 18
Beat Iowa by 19 in the Round of 32
Beat UCLA again by 12 in the Sweet 16

compared to
2 wins vs carolina (sweet 16)
win over ND (elite 8)
win over wisconsin on the road (final 4)
win over MSU on the road (elite 8)
win over UL (elite 8)
win over UVA on the road (no comment)
win over St. Johns on the road
win over NCSU (sweet 16)
win over utah (sweet 16)

I'm sure I'm missing one too....that's 8 wins against sweet 16 teams...compared to 2 for the zags...both against the same team
duke has 4 wins against elite 8 teams, vs 0 for gonzaga
duke has 2 wins against final 4 teams, vs 0 for gonzaga

I'm not saying the zags shouldn't be respected (everyone at this stage needs it), but more that our wins are absurd. we SHOULD win this game. I'm never sold on mid majors with gaudy records, and this I staunchly believe is one of those cases. The zags are living on one overtime loss and a bunch of mediocre wins. This would be by far their best win of the season.

we shall see. go devils.

[Troublemaker]

uh_no, I expect you to predict Duke to beat UK if that game occurs then.

Obviously nobody in the country matches Duke's resume.

But you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Gonzaga played the teams on their schedule really well. I don't think Duke would've fared better playing their schedule.

[gumbomoop]

I don't like that gonzaga has so many upperclassmen. I tend to go with experience in the tournament.


Besides the experience (Zags start 3 seniors and 2 juniors), they've also only lost two games all year. One was an overtime game AT Arizona. The other was a 3-pt loss to BYU. So, losing by > 3 points would be a first for this Gonzaga team this season. We can pooh-pooh their schedule but they played a tougher one than Butler in 2010, and Butler gave us a heck of game. I'm expecting a great regional final tomorrow.

My default criteria for evaluating teams is: talent, experience, depth. (I guess I don't consider coaching enough, which is odd.)

I'll say Duke has an edge in talent, but not much. Experience certainly favors Zags. In a maybe-crucial sense, Zags have just a bit of "depth experience" advantage. That is, their 6th and 7th guys average 22 and 17 minutes, respectively. Now our 6th man, Amile, averages 22, too, though his minutes have fluctuated wildly toward end of season. And neither Marshall nor Grayson get 17 minutes, usually.

As much as I admire Wiltjer's season, Winslow is a tough matchup for him, and for anybody. But Few does sometimes play both Karnowski and Sabonis together, and either because Winslow would still be guarding Wiltjer, or need a rest, or would be overmatched by either Karnowski or Sabonis, Amile or Marshall must play confidently and effectively. For Amile, that means alert cutting for passes from Jahlil, wanting to score along the baseline, and fierce rebounding at both ends. For Marshall, that means staying on his feet when defending, blocking out, and grabbing the ball on rebounds. He needs to play like an experienced 4th-year junior.

[uh_no]

uh_no, I expect you to predict Duke to beat UK if that game occurs then.

Obviously nobody in the country matches Duke's resume.

But you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Gonzaga played the teams on their schedule really well. I don't think Duke would've fared better playing their schedule.

unfortunately no.

Kentucky has several wins better than gonzaga's best (19)

kansas(14)
UNC(12)
UL(16)
ND(9)

some of them dominant.

i have trouble putting my faith in any team that has such little experience against top competition. It's why I picked NCSU over villanova, and why i picked gonzaga to have lost already. clearly they haven't, but a games extra win isn't enough for me to change my opinion on them.

[KandG]

I'm a numbers guy, so I'll take a stab at putting together a stats analysis of this matchup.

Gonzaga is a very good team and would be a worthy member of the Final Four. I'd rather not see that happen and several factors play in Duke's favor. First, the odds are in Duke's favor. Vegas has the line at -2.5, which is better odds that have been given to MSU (-2.0) and Arizona (-1.0) in their Elite 8 games. Vegas thinks Duke is the best bet out of those three to make it to Indianapolis. Kentucky, for what it's worth, is at -11.0 over Notre Dame.

I'm a big fan of Five Thirty Eight (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#mens), the blog and now network of Nate Silver of baseball and elections predictions fame. Silver's model has Duke as having a 59% chance of winning, down slightly from the 66% odds over Utah. That's a little bit better than Michigan State's chances (58%) over Louisville and a little worse than Arizona's (60%) over Wisconsin. The people that get paid to make projections give Duke a fairly decent shot at this game.

Let's also not forget that, while Ken Pomeroy's model really likes Utah and Gonzaga, Duke is still ranked ahead of both this year. Pomeroy's models give a lot of information on teams, more than just a ranking. They show, for example, that Duke's offensive efficiency is 3rd best in the nation while Gonzaga's is 4th. Gonzaga has the highest field goal percentage in the country, by the way. Where does this proficiency advantage come from for Duke? I would say rebounding. With Justise Winslow and Jahlil Okafor, Duke has two guys that can keep offensive possessions going. This skills - getting offensive rebounds - is the best offensive trait of Amile Jefferson. Marshall Plumlee is pretty good at it, too. For Gonzaga, they are just ok at it. Kyle Wiltjer is their best rebounder, but he has fewer offensive boards (49) than Domantis Sabonis (81) on the year. He's tall and gets boards from the stretch-4 spot. By comparison, Okafor has 126 and Jefferson is second at 85. Let's also remember that Pomeroy shows that Gonzaga has gone up against lesser talent all year. Their opponents offensive efficiency was 77th and defensive efficiency was 122nd. Duke's stats were 7th and 22nd, respectively. So they do get rebounds, but have been mostly of the defensive variety and against inferior opponents. Duke presents a real test for their ability to prevent Duke from getting second and third chances.

As for the matchups, Gonzaga presents great size but not so great athleticism. Karnowski is big, 7'1" and 288 pounds. Be he's not particularly mobile. If Gonzaga elects to play Okafor one-on-one, I can see Jahlil having a lot of success spinning around the Polish big man or taking him out to the mid-range or perimeter and driving around him. If they do double Okafor, Winslow and the guards should find a lot of room to cut to the basket or swing it around for open shots. Gonzaga just won't be able to close as quickly as did Utah last night. They only average 3 blocks a game versus 5 per game from Utah. On the perimeter, Tyus, Matt, Quinn, and Grayson should find their counterparts to be about the same size but a little slower. Without a rim protector, they could find a lot of success driving to the basket.

The key to the game, in my opinion, is going to be Justise Winslow versus Kyle Wiltjer. These two are matchup nightmares. Wiltjer can really hit it from range, where he shoots about 47% of his attempts. Whereas Kevin Pangos (63% of attempts) and Gary Bell, Jr. (62%) make most of their field goal attempts beyond the arc, Wiltjer takes most of his shots inside the arc. Winslow will have to challenge the three, but he'll have to make sure Wiltjer doesn't drive to the lane or post up. Justise has the strength to do this, too. He gives up 4 inches of height, but he's so solid and athletic. If Winslow wins this matchup, Duke should be in very good shape. Alternatively, Duke could elect to play Jefferson on Wiltjer with Winslow getting a much smaller player to guard.

The keys to the game, for me, will be keeping Pangos and Bell, Jr. from scoring from deep and preventing Wiltjer from getting many open looks. On offensive, getting rebounds and having our guards go to the hoop should lead the team to victory. It won't be easy, but it should be a lot of fun!


This is awesome, thanks for this analysis. Pangos and Wiltjer are definitely the players on the Zags that unnerve me the most. Quite a few TV pundits are picking the Zags because of their experience, but Bilas feels the Zags are not the type of team, talented as they are, that gives Duke problems and favors Duke.

[dukelifer]

uh_no, I expect you to predict Duke to beat UK if that game occurs then.

Obviously nobody in the country matches Duke's resume.

But you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Gonzaga played the teams on their schedule really well. I don't think Duke would've fared better playing their schedule.

All this goes out the window in this game. These teams are both strong in their own ways and each pose problems for the other. Zags are good and I have no doubt they can beat Duke on any given Sunday. But Duke is also a very good team and if playing their game - they can win. This will be about execution at the end of the game and mental toughness. The Zag's experience will help them but they also have the pressure of never finishing the deal and getting to the FF. Should be a good game with lots of things to watch.

[budwom]

Moi, I think the key is to prevent easy entry passes to Sabonis and Karnowski in the post.

[Saratoga2]

Kentucky is the beast of the tournament, yet a small but efficient ND team played Kentucky to the last minute and should have won. Three missed free throws and Grant deciding to go away from what worked and dribble around taking last second shots the last three possessions were keys to the loss.

The point is that a team that had efficient offense and played very gritty smart ball almost did in a team wtih much more size, athleticism, depth and some would argue talent points out how Duke can beat Gonzaga. Gonzaga is not as highly rated as Kentucky and the only thing they have over Kentucky is experience. If Duke plays their best for 40 minutes, avoids unforced turnovers, rebounds and plays as a team they can and should prevail. I am hoping that will occur and that the players know this game has to be won with their best effort.

[MChambers]

Duke's defense improved overnight, from 27th to 26th, presumably as a result of the good offensive showings by Wisconsin and Notre Dame against tough defenses.

[Jackson]

If we had not allowed Utah 11 offensive rebounds in the first half Friday night, the game would have been over by halftime. Gonzaga has a much bigger front line. I'm hoping for some Amile and MPIII sightings in the first half to keep the Zags off of the boards. If the shooting is as cold as it historically has been in Houston, big factor there. If Justise and Jah are going to be pros, tonight is a good time to show the world that they are. Would be a good time for Tyus and Cook to come up big on offense. Our last 2 games were in the 60s. If Gonzaga likes to push tempo, I would like our chances a lot if the game is in the 80s.

[Indoor66]

Time to TRUST K!

[NashvilleDevil]

compared to
2 wins vs carolina (sweet 16)
win over ND (elite 8)
win over wisconsin on the road (final 4)
win over MSU on the road (elite 8)
win over UL on the road (elite 8)
win over UVA on the road (no comment)
win over St. Johns on the road
win over NCSU (sweet 16)
win over utah (sweet 16)


And that Lousiville game may have been the turning point of the season since they were coming off the losses to NC St and Miami.

[Bob Green]

Need a couple of baskets from Amile, a few rebounds by Marshall, and one 3-bomb and an and-one from Grayson.

Will bench production be needed? It certainly wouldn't hurt; however, barring foul trouble, I am not sure how many minutes the bench will see today. It is the Regional Championship Game with a trip to the Final Four on the line so I expect Coach K to ride his starters as much as possible.

I agree with you the bench needs to produce when they are in the game. So far in the tournament:

Amile Jefferson: 58 minutes, 14 points and 10 rebounds
Grayson Allen: 30 minutes, 9 points and 1 rebound
Marshall Plumlee: 31 minutes, 10 points and 11 rebounds

[Troublemaker]

Gonzaga posts up more than any team in the country. From Synergy via Luke Winn:

http://www.si.com/sites/default/files/2015/03/05/gonzaga.gif

They've been efficient with the postup, too, albeit against a weak schedule.

Jahlil (and Amile and MP3) will have to play effective 1-on-1 post defense because Duke's not going to help off their shooters. Karnowski hasn't come across 7'6" length like Jah possesses very often, if at all, this season. Jah bothered Rakeem Christmas twice. Maybe he can bother Gonzaga's big men.

[KandG]

Gasaway over at ESPN is picking the Zags:

However, as strong as the Blue Devils have been on D in the tournament, Coach K's guys have been susceptible on the defensive glass the past three games. (Utah, for example, pulled down 44 percent of its missed shots.) And I like the Zags' chances to pick up just enough offensive boards to win what I expect will be a high-scoring and highly entertaining game.


http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/story/_/id/12576565/scouting-gonzaga-duke-louisville-michigan-state

[OldPhiKap]

The Zags seem like the fashionable pick, and many had them winning the region anyway.

Time to make some folks unhappy I guess.

Go Duke!

[cptnflash]

Gasaway over at ESPN is picking the Zags:

However, as strong as the Blue Devils have been on D in the tournament, Coach K's guys have been susceptible on the defensive glass the past three games. (Utah, for example, pulled down 44 percent of its missed shots.) And I like the Zags' chances to pick up just enough offensive boards to win what I expect will be a high-scoring and highly entertaining game.


http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/story/_/id/12576565/scouting-gonzaga-duke-louisville-michigan-state

This is a very reasonable concern. With Amile most likely playing limited minutes once again, our defensive rebounding is a bit suspect. Justice will need to continue to hit the defensive glass hard, and we'll need rebounding contributions from our smaller guards as well.

[Henderson]

This is a very reasonable concern. With Amile most likely playing limited minutes once again, our defensive rebounding is a bit suspect. Justice will need to continue to hit the defensive glass hard, and we'll need rebounding contributions from our smaller guards as well.

Wiltjer and Pangos could cause some problems for our defensive rebounding. It's tough to commit to the boards on defense when outside shooters, especially a big guy like Wiltjer, extend the defense, drawing rebounders away from the paint. It's why everyone loves a good stretch 4 and a guard who can hit the outside shot when the team also has a strong inside presence.

[Troublemaker]

So, it seems pretty obvious that Duke will try to get the ball out of Pangos' hands when Gonzaga's bringing the ball upcourt after an inbounds. Duke's going to try to accomplish this in one of the two ways we've shown this season:

(1) Zone press. Trap to force Pangos to pass. Then Quinn face-guards him. Or,
(2) Amile double-teams him in the backcourt on the inbounds to force the ball elsewhere. Then Quinn face-guards him.

How well Gonzaga reacts to this is the first key to the game. I suspect Gonzaga is too veteran, too good an offense, and too well-coached to allow these shenanigans to de-rail them. They may even be able to hurt Duke by getting the ball upcourt quickly without Pangos and getting easy layups or threes. If so, Duke will have to back off our pressure completely. And then the game will just settle into a battle between two great offenses punching and counter-punching for 40 minutes in a very entertaining and very heart-stopping regional final. We'd need an appearance of Tyus Stones down the stretch to win.

But... maybe I'm wrong... maybe these shenanigans do affect Gonzaga. Maybe the Zags have trouble getting the ball upcourt and into their offense without Pangos spearheading, and it lowers their efficiency. If so, then Duke will win comfortably and avoid the heartstopper that I'm anticipating for this regional final.

So this will be the first thing I'm watching for today.

[NashvilleDevil]

So, it seems pretty obvious that Duke will try to get the ball out of Pangos' hands when Gonzaga's bringing the ball upcourt after an inbounds. Duke's going to try to accomplish this in one of the two ways we've shown this season:

(1) Zone press. Trap to force Pangos to pass. Then Quinn face-guards him.
(2) Amile double-teams him in the backcourt on the inbounds to force the ball elsewhere. Then Quinn face-guards him.

How well Gonzaga reacts to this is the first key to the game. I suspect Gonzaga is too veteran, too good an offense, and too well-coached to allow these shenanigans to de-rail them. They may even be able to hurt Duke by getting the ball upcourt quickly without Pangos and getting easy layups or threes. If so, Duke will have to back off our pressure completely. And then the game will just settle into two great offenses punching and counter-punching for 40 minutes in a very entertaining and very heart-stopping regional final. We'd need an appearance of Tyus Stones down the stretch to win.

But... maybe I'm wrong... maybe these shenanigans do affect Gonzaga. Maybe the Zags have trouble getting the ball upcourt and into their offense without Pangos spearheading, and it lowers their efficiency. If so, then Duke will win comfortably and avoid the heartstopper that I'm anticipating for this regional final.

They are a veteran team but as some have mentioned Duke is going to be the best team they have faced all year. This is also Mark Few's first time getting this far in the tourney and while he's a really, really good coach how will he react in the biggest game of his coaching career? K has a great record in regional finals and I think Duke wins this one by 10-12 points.

[gumbomoop]

I have been high on the Zags since I first saw them around midseason, and then a few times thereafter. So now I'll hope my praise of their team was misguided.

Here's a question maybe someone can answer, preferably based on seeing them several times (and paying more attention to one detail); or possibly based on the UCLA game Friday. I recall being impressed by Karnowski's passing to Sabonis, twice behind the back. But I can't recall whether Wiltjer was also on the floor when their other two bigs were on the court.

If Duke's playing Justise at the 4 at the same time Gonzaga goes super-big, for, say, a 4-minute stretch, that would make for some high risk-high reward for both teams.

[Bob Green]

Here is a preview article from the Gonzaga Slipperstillfits.com website:

http://www.slipperstillfits.com/2015/3/29/8306907/ncaa-tournament-2015-preview-duke-stands-in-the-way-of-gonzaga-and-a


How does Gonzaga deal with Justise Winslow?

This is the question that kinda freaks me out.

Be sure and read the comments below the article which include the obligatory, "Duke gets all the calls."

[KandG]

Five Thirty Eight's model considers the Zags a "modest underdog", but like everyone else, they're effectively saying the game could swing either way based on the profiles of the teams. I thought this part of their blurb - regarding "high-variance tactics" - was interesting:

"Since the FiveThirtyEight model considers the Bulldogs a modest underdog, it’s worth asking whether they employ enough high-variance tactics to help them “make their own luck” in this matchup — and, unfortunately, Gonzaga doesn’t play a slow pace, nor is it especially reliant on shooting 3-pointers, forcing turnovers or crashing the offensive boards. (Duke also plays a relatively safe style for a favorite, with an above-average pace, good offensive rebounding and no overreliance on long-distance shooting or takeaways.)"


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/march-madness-crib-notes-elite8-michigan-state-louisville-duke-gonzaga/

[DavidBenAkiva]

If we had not allowed Utah 11 offensive rebounds in the first half Friday night, the game would have been over by halftime. Gonzaga has a much bigger front line. I'm hoping for some Amile and MPIII sightings in the first half to keep the Zags off of the boards. If the shooting is as cold as it historically has been in Houston, big factor there. If Justise and Jah are going to be pros, tonight is a good time to show the world that they are. Would be a good time for Tyus and Cook to come up big on offense. Our last 2 games were in the 60s. If Gonzaga likes to push tempo, I would like our chances a lot if the game is in the 80s.

I did a little more digging into the numbers, and it turns out that Gonzaga is a better offensive rebounding team than Utah. They come in at 74th in the country (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-rebounding-pct) at 32.4%. Utah was 125th at 30.3%. Duke, by the way, is an excellent offensive rebounding team at 20th in the nation at 35.5%. Gonzaga is certainly capable of keeping possessions alive. It is especially impressive when you consider their high field goal percentage (52.4%, tops in the nation).

When they faced Airzona early in the season, they got 13 offensive rebounds. Against UCLA in the Sweet 16, they got 18. In both cases, the team was shooting poorly, close to 40% from the floor. Justise, Jahlil, and the guards are going to have to crash the boards on defense to limit possessions.

[Troublemaker]

Here's a question maybe someone can answer, preferably based on seeing them several times (and paying more attention to one detail); or possibly based on the UCLA game Friday. I recall being impressed by Karnowski's passing to Sabonis, twice behind the back. But I can't recall whether Wiltjer was also on the floor when their other two bigs were on the court.

Based on box score math (big men minutes have to add up to 80), I don't think Wiltjer has played at all at SF in Gonzaga's three tournament games.

[subzero02]

Plumlee and Jefferson will have a significant impact on the game today. We need to keep Sabonis off the glass.

[Troublemaker]

The Zag's experience will help them but they also have the pressure of never finishing the deal and getting to the FF.

My read is that Gonzaga will play loose. The way they celebrated after beating UCLA in the Sweet 16 tells me that was a big deal to them. And rightly so. While it's true that they've never made the Final Four, the players will play this game against Duke with a fallback of "No matter what happens, at least we got Coach Few to his first Elite 8." Also, watching Few's press conference, he basically said that Gonzaga was the Duke of the WCC. Lots of pressure to win every single game, and the opponents are always fired up to play them. It's cliche, but I think they relish the role of the underdog here. Duke's the higher seed so Gonzaga can't bow out to a lower seed like they've done a few times in recent history. Duke's the powerhouse national program expected to win. Gonzaga's going to enjoy the role reversal, and like I said, they already have the Elite 8 under their belt and can claim to be the best Gonzaga team ever since they accomplished more in the regular season than the Monson-led Zags that made the E8.

So, I hope you're right, but I think Gonzaga will play loose. At least at the beginning of the game. If it's a tight game with 5 minutes left, anyone can crack under that game pressure.

[Henderson]

Be sure and read the comments below the article which include the obligatory, "Duke gets all the calls."

You should check out IC on that issue, the Gonzaga matchup, the NCAA tourney, and much more.

Inside Cult is funnier than the funny papers and much more topical. It's my go-to bookmark when I'm enjoying a good cup of coffee in the morning and want to start the day with a laugh. Those people are hilarious, and it's precious because they don't mean to be.

[Troublemaker]

I think Duke wins this one by 10-12 points.

Maybe it's just as simple as this: Duke isn't bothered by size; Duke is bothered by quickness, and Duke is quicker than Gonzaga. I'm hoping you're right, Nashville. Maybe Duke's quickness proves to be the decisive advantage and it leads to an easy win.

[Troublemaker]

The point spread has dropped to 2 from 2.5 despite more Joe Schmoes betting on Duke than on Gonzaga. That's not great, but it's not awful. If the line continues to drop and becomes a pick'em by tip or maybe Gonzaga becomes the favorite, then I'd be worried. That would mean that a lot of smart people are betting large amounts of money on Gonzaga.

[Edouble]

I like Quinn to bounce back from a low scoring effort against Utah and make sure people lose even more money.

This is what Quinn has been working towards all year, since a tearful press conference following last season's first round loss to Mercer.

This is also why Tyus and Jah went through four years of recruitment as a package deal... to win a championship.

This is what Coach K puts all his heart and soul and energy into... into setting up our Blue Devils to hang banners.

I'm sure we will face a tough opponent, but if I were the other team I'd be pissing my pants right now thinking about Winslow, who has been the best player thus far in the tournament.

We are Duke and today we're playing for a championship.

Go Devils!!!!!

[Troublemaker]

I like Quinn to bounce back from a low scoring effort against Utah and make sure people lose even more money.

This is what Quinn has been working towards all year, since a tearful press conference following last season's first round loss to Mercer.

This is also why Tyus and Jah went through four years of recruitment as a package deal... to win a championship.

This is what Coach K puts all his heart and soul and energy into... into setting up our Blue Devils to hang banners.

I'm sure we will face a tough opponent, but if I were the other team I'd be pissing my pants right now thinking about Winslow, who has been the best player thus far in the tournament.

We are Duke and today we're playing for a championship.

Go Devils!!!!!

Nice!!! Let's Go Duke!

Today we get to complete our revenge on KenPom as well. He's been grouping Duke with Utah and Gonzaga for most of the season instead of with UK, Arizona, Wisconsin, and UVA. While KenPom has been scrambling behind the scenes to raise Duke's D-ranking lately, it's too little too late for him as Duke will complete the sweep and send Gonzaga home with a loss, embarrassing Kenpom in the process.

[BobbyFan]

I'm hoping focus isn't an issue for us today, with the possibility of being giddy over facing a relatively lower seed in the FF.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm hoping focus isn't an issue for us today, with the possibility of being giddy over facing a relatively lower seed in the FF.

I'm fairly comfortable in thinking that we are focused on the difficult challenge at hand.

[uh_no]

I'm fairly comfortable in thinking that we are focused on the difficult challenge at hand.

Given our game is in a couple hours, I'm guessing the team is heading to the stadium before going to start warming up. I highly doubt they're paying much attention to the other game. I mean, maybe they'll check the score, but despite the NCAA's contentions, our guys are professionals. they know how to deal with the task at hand, as if they don't, there IS no game next week.

I'm sure quinn and amile are thinking about coming close two years ago and not wanting to miss out this time.

[dukelifer]

I'm hoping focus isn't an issue for us today, with the possibility of being giddy over facing a relatively lower seed in the FF.

I would say the chance of this is close to zero.

[-bdbd]

I like Quinn to bounce back from a low scoring effort against Utah and make sure people lose even more money.

This is what Quinn has been working towards all year, since a tearful press conference following last season's first round loss to Mercer.

This is also why Tyus and Jah went through four years of recruitment as a package deal... to win a championship.

This is what Coach K puts all his heart and soul and energy into... into setting up our Blue Devils to hang banners.

I'm sure we will face a tough opponent, but if I were the other team I'd be pissing my pants right now thinking about Winslow, who has been the best player thus far in the tournament.

We are Duke and today we're playing for a championship.

Go Devils!!!!!

Us "armchair coaches" sit from a distance and love to make points about strategies and X&O's. At times, from reading fan boards, and not just Duke's, it can feel like people are treating it like a board game. But these are teenage kids (or slightly older), and they have minds, emotions, motivations, distractions, inconsistencies, etc.

I like Edouble's description, b/c it emphasizes this point. These kids WILL be focused for a variety of reasons. I expect us to be intense throughout.

And, while I think we WILL get outrebounded some, I just don't see the Zags having an answer for Duke's overall speed and athleticism. Especially with regard to Mr. Winslow. I'm expecting a very big game out of Justise today. I'd feel better if K had a few more days to prepare, but you'd think that they would have been more focused on Gonzaga coming in anyway. It'll be fun, high-scoring and entertaining. But I do like our chances of making another Final Four trip...

[ns7]

Nice!!! Let's Go Duke!

Today we get to complete our revenge on KenPom as well. He's been grouping Duke with Utah and Gonzaga for most of the season instead of with UK, Arizona, Wisconsin, and UVA. While KenPom has been scrambling behind the scenes to raise Duke's D-ranking lately, it's too little too late for him as Duke will complete the sweep and send Gonzaga home with a loss, embarrassing Kenpom in the process.

Not sure whether you're being facetious here. But his rankings don't work the way you describe them.

[gurufrisbee]

FIVE KEYS

1) Our guards need to outshoot their guards from 3 point range.

2) Okafor needs to be able to be effective either one-on-one against Karanawski or at getting lots of assists if they double.

3) Winslow on Wiltjer and Matt on Wesley need to come through and earn their reputations as good defenders.

4) We need to outrebound them.

5) We have to hit our free throws.

If we can do at least four of these five, we win.

[uh_no]

FIVE KEYS

1) Our guards need to outshoot their guards from 3 point range.

2) Okafor needs to be able to be effective either one-on-one against Karanawski or at getting lots of assists if they double.

3) Winslow on Wiltjer and Matt on Wesley need to come through and earn their reputations as good defenders.

4) We need to outrebound them.

5) We have to hit our free throws.

If we can do at least four of these five, we win.

I'm not sure I can agree here...we pretty much did none of these things against a similarly efficient utah and still won.

If we do four of these five, we win in a blowout. If we do none of them, we're in for a dogfight.

[Utley]

In hindsight it's clear we are a really good team that shows up for big games. I expect that to continue.

I think our D and the corresponding ability to get buckets in transition will be key.

Win this one for Quinn!

[Dukehky]

I'm not sure I can agree here...we pretty much did none of these things against a similarly efficient utah and still won.

If we do four of these five, we win in a blowout. If we do none of them, we're in for a dogfight.

I want Matt to hit 2 threes, and maybe finish at the rim one time.

I want Jah to stick his long arm up when Karnowski shoots from his shoulder and not foul.

I want Amile to show why he is the was the most highly regarded big coming out of high school who comes off the bench.

I want Quinn and Tyus to show us that the best backcourt in the country plays for the guys in white.

I want Justise to continue to prove he should be in the argument for a top 3 pick.

I want K keep these kids fighting tooth and nail no matter how the game is going.

I want, most of all, for Duke to get to the Final Four.

[Troublemaker]

Key Stat? Nothing really obvious jumps out at me this time, as so many things could end up being important. But, to be consistent with previous pre-game threads, I'll choose one and go with "Who scores more points - Wiltjer or Winslow?"

That's definitely a key matchup for the game, although the task of defending Wiltjer won't belong to Justise alone. Duke is likely to switch the pick-and-pop, so sometimes Quinn and Tyus will end up on Wiltjer as well. That will be very interesting. Is Wiltjer just going to force it and shoot over the top of our small guards? If he does that, will he shoot effectively? Or will he try to take them to the post? Can Duke somehow switch back before Wiltjer hurts the defense?

Gonzaga is also a very good pick-n-roll team, but Duke has improved so much in that area that my concern is more with the pick-and-pop for this game.

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Gonzaga, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/gonzaga-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-3292015-505-pm

[davekay1971]

I want, most of all, for Duke to get to the Final Four.

This is kinda the key point. I don't much care how it happens.

Let's get there.

And let's do it without injuries.

Now it's time to start stressing...

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[bjornolf]

What channel is the game on? Directv says CBS, but announcer of MSU game just said TBS, and there's a Tyler Perry movie on TBS.

[TruBlu]

What channel is the game on? Directv says CBS, but announcer of MSU game just said TBS, and there's a Tyler Perry movie on TBS.

It is on CBS

[bjornolf]

It is on CBS

Great, thanks. Darn announcers.

[gurufrisbee]

I'm not sure I can agree here...we pretty much did none of these things against a similarly efficient utah and still won.

If we do four of these five, we win in a blowout. If we do none of them, we're in for a dogfight.

Utah isn't half the team Gonzaga is. We do none of the five we lose - and not close.

[TNDukeFan]

Phantom call on Tyus, looked like.
And Jim Nance is getting in a bad habit of saying 'no foul called' - is he doing that on the Duke end too or did I just miss it?

[MChambers]

Phantom call on Tyus, looked like.
And Jim Nance is getting in a bad habit of saying 'no foul called' - is he doing that on the Duke end too or did I just miss it?
I noticed that too.

[gcashwell]

This game is a bad matchup for marshall.

[TNDukeFan]

What does Gonzaga have to do to be called for a foul?

[CR9]

Running some terrible, heroball offense last couple minutes.

[turnandburn55]

This game is a bad matchup for marshall.

Having both Marshall and Amile on the floor for an extended period of time is not good for us. I understand it's started with Justice tweaking his ankle, but that lineup just isn't challenging the Zags on either end.

[g-money]

Okafor needs to work harder to get position in the post. That is the key to getting easier shots.

[crdaul]

Offensive goal tending now legal?

[rtnorthrup]

Very weird substitution pattern for Duke in this game.

[jipops]

We're being dominated right now, on both ends. Not good it continued after a timeout.

[gumbomoop]

Zags have the energy right now. Sabonis outworking Jahlil badly.

[The Gordog]

Ball clearly in the cylinder on that tip in!

[rsvman]

We look pretty bad right now, to be honest.

Need to step it up, especially with blocking out.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Gotta settle into our offense

[CR9]

Tyus with some very poor decisions.

[g-money]

Wow, Sabonis with a Euroflop on that one.

[jipops]

Post him up!!! What the hell are we doing!!???

[Karl Beem]

Could have been worse.

[crdaul]

How many times does our last second shot at end of the first half actually succeed?

[pfrduke]

Considering we had a stretch going 1-12 from the field, being up 5 is pretty good. We are playing excellent defense. Need to be more disciplined on offense.

[Jackson]

I would love to see more Amile and less Matt Jones in this one. Jones is a constant match up advantage for them every time down the court. He also took two horrible shots. That 3 had no chance and he should have never taken it. Tyus has made so bad decisions with the ball. With that said, we are up by 5. We can't play much worse. Next play.

[gwlaw99]

How are they getting such great position down low, and we can't get it to Jah.

[InSpades]

I really dislike the 1st substitution we do every game. Taking out Jah and Justice and putting in 3 players who aren't really scorers is tough. The Amile + Marshall lineups are just so offensively challenged. I realize it's tough w/ Jah in some foul trouble and Justise getting hurt but... it just puts so much pressure on our guards to make a play. Thankfully Tyus is doing that today. Go Devils! Finish strong!

[gumbomoop]

How are they getting such great position down low, and we can't get it to Jah.

This is a good question. For all his amazing footwork, his energy (?) in getting to a good spot is sometimes insufficient. Lots of the time, honestly. Maybe on some sets he's there very briefly, and the pass isn't made. But that doesn't seem to be the majority of the time.

Zags still have a rested Karnowski and 5 fouls to give from the 5. I wish Marshall had learned not to bring the ball to the floor, but he hasn't. Marshall has to give Jahlil just a litte rest second half. And a couple of rebounds. I'm with those who prefer to see Amile a bit more than Matt in second half. I'm willing for Justise to be our third 3-bomber on the perimeter.

[Atldukie79]

After several nice shots, Tyus started to force it...looks frustrated that fouls are not called.
Ja having trouble getting position against the big bodies.

[Tripping William]

I'm a little surprised at the relatively slow pace & that this is a halfcourt game. We can win this way, but I expected more up-and-down. I like our position at the moment. Halfway home.

[gcashwell]

Shooting 35.5% and up five. I'll take it.

[crdaul]

Let's bring it home! Go Duke

[Billy Dat]

I bet Few goes to Karnowski early and often. We need Jah to touch it A LOT. First 5 mins will be telling. We start with the ball, it would be great to push it out to 6,7 or 8.

[Jackson]

Want to see Amile on Wiltjer....he will eat Jones' lunch. Bigger lineup would help. Matt Jones took five shots, missed three badly.

[CR9]

Great defense then some absolute luck.

[Lulu]

I am so disgusted. A game for the final four and we're just watching them rebound the missed layup

[rsvman]

I bet Few goes to Karnowski early and often. We need Jah to touch it A LOT. First 5 mins will be telling. We start with the ball, it would be great to push it out to 6,7 or 8.

So much for that.

[g-money]

I bet Few goes to Karnowski early and often. We need Jah to touch it A LOT. First 5 mins will be telling. We start with the ball, it would be great to push it out to 6,7 or 8.

I'd say we executed exactly as planned. Not!

It's likely going to be a dogfight to the end now. Gotta stay poised.

[Atldukie79]

bad bounce leading to a three? luck
No one running back on defense? inexcusable

[jjredickrules]

Oh Jah...

[CR9]

Danger time. All the bounces going to Gonzaga. No energy.

[turnandburn55]

Wow... Airball FT.

And we sub in Amile and Marshall in danger time? Ugh..

[davekay1971]

I am developing a thorough loathing for the guy at the end of the Gonzaga bench who does the deep squat, fists down flexing thing every time Gonzaga scores. Granted, I'd like to see us stop Gonzaga from giving him so many opportunities to do that maneuver. Barring that, I'd like him to rip the bottom of out of his pants next time Gonzaga scores. He's one of those guys I'm sorry I noticed, because now I can't help but see him every time Gonzaga scores. And now that you've read this, you'll see him too, and you'll be tortured.

[Lulu]

This is our best team in some time now, and they are so hard to watch. Every game we watch here we're asking each other who must be sick on our team. MORE ENERGY guys!

[CR9]

30% from the field this half seemed incredibly high.

[Billy Dat]

The much maligned Matt Jones is the next JJ Redick!

[turnandburn55]

Matt Jones playing the Andre Dawkins 2010 role tonight...

[rsvman]

Matt hits a big three!

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Jah finally gets one!! I think Quinn is next up for a big one!

[g-money]

How 'bout that DEFENSE!!!

[rsvman]

Heads up play by Tyus!

[Lulu]

The person I'm watching with just asked if there was a whistle, when there wasn't.

...fingers crossed maybe things are turning around, and couple good plays and I think I saw a flint of emotion out there.

Excluding Matt Jones. I hate to lump him in.

[pfrduke]

Great response, keyed by hard work on the defensive end. The offense has looked tentative much of the game; the defense has been the constant.

[Billy Dat]

We got the momentum back. Our D is solid, need to get good shots.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

I'm hoping our traditional offensive drought already happened the last 10 min of the first half and we bring it home here the last 11 min.

[rsvman]

It's the Jones and Jones show!

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Matt has come to play today!!! And here I was frustrated with his lack of shooting touch.

[Billy Dat]

This feels like the Butler game.

[CR9]

Matt has exchanged the good and the bad. Needs to get his moneys worth if he's gonna foul like that.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

What I don't want us to do too much of today is nurse the lead. I thought we did that a bit too much against Utah. Keep attacking!

[gumbomoop]

Energy, rebound, energy, rebound, energy, rebound.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Time to play tough and finish

[Native]

let's go duke!

[rsvman]

Do they not call walking at all anymore?

[CR9]

Mercy Justise has been poor. Ankle is bothering him more than he's letting on, surely.

[gumbomoop]

Jahlil being outworked. Maybe he's tired.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Agreed about Jah

[Billy Dat]

Winning time, let's do it!!!

[Jackson]

Why has Okafor not touched the ball in the 2nd half?

[rsvman]

Don't need him right now.

[CR9]

Finish themmmmm

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Why has Okafor not touched the ball in the 2nd half?

Asking myself the same thing. We need an easy bucket from him down the stretch.

[WVDUKEFAN]

That 3 could be the dagger!!

[pfrduke]

That was a no no no no no no YES! shot from Winslow.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Justice is again being served!!! This kid continues to impress me.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Good call. He walked!!!

[pfrduke]

C'mon Q - hit your throws.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

1 minute!! We got this!!

[WVDUKEFAN]

I hasn't been the prettiest game we ever played, but a win is a win!! GO DUKE!!

[pfrduke]

The story of the tournament for Duke has been defense. We're about to hold both Utah and Gonzaga under 60, to an average of 54 points.