MBB: Duke v Utah, NCAAT Sw16 (Fri, 9:45, CBS) Pregame and In-game Thread

[hurleyfor3]

Utah... now this is a new one for us.

[CDu]

Let's hope we bring the intensity and focus for closer to 40 minutes in the game on Friday. We are really good, but I can't help but wonder if our complacency will bite us.

[detule]

This team is a lot of fun to watch.

A lot of credit goes to our D, but honestly, it seemed to me that SDSU's anemic offense had a lot to do with it.

Glad to see us playing well on offense against a good, athletic, long defensive team.

(Wrong thread - MODs, if possible please move to SDSU post game thread. Thanks)

[hurleyfor3]

Let's hope we bring the intensity and focus for closer to 40 minutes in the game on Friday. We are really good, but I can't help but wonder if our complacency will bite us.

I feel like these four or five minute leaves of absence is just something this team does, and as long as they don't get much longer, I'm willing to accept.

[Troublemaker]

This will be the first of two regional finals Duke will have to win next weekend to advance to the Final Four. (Yes, Utah is a top 8 team.)

[CR9]

Early scouting report, anyone? They seem like quite a similar team to SDSU.

[dukelifer]

Let's hope we bring the intensity and focus for closer to 40 minutes in the game on Friday. We are really good, but I can't help but wonder if our complacency will bite us.

Duke has been very good with rest and time to prepare.

[CDu]

I feel like these four or five minute leaves of absence is just something this team does, and as long as they don't get much longer, I'm willing to accept.

The problem is that a 4-5 minute stretch of not focusing against a really good team may put us in too big a hole to overcome (see Notre Dame in the ACC tournament). Against overmatched teams, we can survive a 10-0 (or thereabouts) run. Against a really good team, that 10-0 can turn into a 15 (or more) point swing. And against a really good team, it is much harder to overcome that 15+ point swing.

[CDu]

Early scouting report, anyone? They seem like quite a similar team to SDSU.

Nah, they are very different. They have one of the 10 or 15 best players in the country (Delon Wright). And they are really good offensively, unlike SDSU. They are big too. This will very possibly be a battle.

[_Gary]

The problem is that a 4-5 minute stretch of not focusing against a really good team may put us in too big a hole to overcome (see Notre Dame in the ACC tournament). Against overmatched teams, we can survive a 10-0 (or thereabouts) run. Against a really good team, that 10-0 can turn into a 15 (or more) point swing. And against a really good team, it is much harder to overcome that 15+ point swing.

Agreed. We can't afford any more long (4+ minute) stretches where we lose focus. We have to stay alert and aggressive, but not out of control, at all times going forward or we'll likely lose to any of the opponents we'll face.

[CDu]

This will be the first of two regional finals Duke will have to win next weekend to advance to the Final Four. (Yes, Utah is a top 8 team.)

To be fair, if Iowa beats Gonzaga (or if UCLA beats Gonzaga) then one might argue that the Sweet-16 is our Regional Final. UCLA/Iowa is (on paper) a much easier matchup than Utah.

[GGLC]

I am extremely concerned about this game.

Utah is one of the best defensive teams in the country, one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. So we've got our work cut out for us.

[bedeviled]

Utah will likely be much more active than we've seen yet (more like the intensity of the NCSt vs 'Nova or Mich St. vs UVA games). We're going to need to be more energetic and put in some work without unfocused periods. Not only active, they will also stretch our D (notably, the Taylor kid can consistently hit from waaay out).

[MarkD83]

I think we are doomed. We only beat the team that beat St. John's who almost beat duke so we may lose to ourselves. So how could we ever beat utah

[CR9]

Nah, they are very different. They have one of the 10 or 15 best players in the country (Delon Wright). And they are really good offensively, unlike SDSU. They are big too. This will very possibly be a battle.

I should've been more specific. I meant size and athleticism wise, they are similar. I've only seen them twice. Once against Zona last month and G'Town yesterday but their big guy was in early foul trouble so not a great barometer. They only got up 38 shots against G'Town and scored 75 points, which is incredible to me.

[mr. synellinden]

Early scouting report, anyone? They seem like quite a similar team to SDSU.

As a team, they shoot 41% from 3. Keeping them at 33% or less from 3pt range will be one of the main keys to the game in my opinion. I'm very curious to see how Coach K defensive game plans for this one. They also have a 7'0" freshman who could bother Jah with his height, but he'll be giving up 40 pounds to Okafor. Tyus will have to play better than he did today, and we'll need a little more contribution from the bench. Also, they are a very good free throw shooting team. Hopefully it doesn't come down to a FT shooting contest.

[NashvilleDevil]

I think we are doomed. We only beat the team that beat St. John's who almost beat duke so we may lose to ourselves. So how could we ever beat utah

Agreed. I think Duke's run of thoroughly beating these greatest teams ever comes to end against Utah. It was a nice run though.

[Henderson]

We have one common opponent this year: SDSU. Utah split with them, losing on the road by 4 and winning at home by 14.

[hurleyfor3]

I think we are doomed. We only beat the team that beat St. John's who almost beat duke so we may lose to ourselves. So how could we ever beat utah

But we beat Robert Morris by 29 whereas Kentucky beat Hampton by 23, and we beat Sdsu by 19 whereas Kentucky beat Cincy by only 13. So we are consistently six points better than Kentucky.

[duke09hms]

I'm of two minds about the Utes. In the regular season, they went 3-7 against tournament teams. Their best win is a OT win against Wichita St. BUT they are KenPom #7, and we're KenPom #6 and went 10-3 against tournament teams. Utah's worst loss is a 9pt loss to Pac-12 doormat Washington while ours is a 16pt loss to bubble team Miami. They also lost to SDSU early in the season.

Can anyone comment on the stylistic matchup? It seems like another one of those "don't beat yourself" type of games for us. If we can maintain focus and effort for the whole game, we should be in good shape.

[MarkD83]

Agreed. I think Duke's run of thoroughly beating these greatest teams ever comes to end against Utah. It was a nice run though.

Of course we could always sneak Mahktar Ndiaye on our team to spit on Utah players. Would that help.

[GGLC]

Sarcasm seems unproductive. Let's hope that I'm wrong that Utah will be a significant challenge.

[Duke95]

I'm of two minds about the Utes. In the regular season, they went 3-7 against tournament teams. Their best win is a OT win against Wichita St. BUT they are KenPom #7, and we're KenPom #6 and went 10-3 against tournament teams. Utah's worst loss is a 9pt loss to Pac-12 doormat Washington while ours is a 16pt loss to bubble team Miami. They also lost to SDSU early in the season.

Can anyone comment on the stylistic matchup? It seems like another one of those "don't beat yourself" type of games for us. If we can maintain focus and effort for the whole game, we should be in good shape.

Utah lost by 18 to Arizona, by 10 to UCLA, and by 11 to Oregon.

Solid team though. They will be a tough out.

They have excellent guard play from Wright.

[CR9]

We have one common opponent this year: SDSU. Utah split with them, losing on the road by 4 and winning at home by 14.

They only played once, didn't they? :confused:

[tbyers11]

We have one common opponent this year: SDSU. Utah split with them, losing on the road by 4 and winning at home by 14.

Utah only played SDSU on the road losing by 4. Did you get your SDSU's mixed up? :D

Utah beat South Dakota St at home by 14 in December.

[NM Duke Fan]

What is not mentioned is that they also have their own Coach K (Special K) with an "unpronounceable" name, who is quickly showing the ability to recruit under-rated talent. And he has a great knack for in game adjustments.

[MarkD83]

Sarcasm seems unproductive. Let's hope that I'm wrong that Utah will be a significant challenge.

I'll stop with my sarcasm. It is a bit of a superstition at this point for me. In the RM and SDSU threads once I put in a few sarcastic comments I was more relaxed and Duke won. So I have added my sarcastic comments to the thread to keep up the good karma.

[Henderson]

They only played once, didn't they? :confused:


Utah only played SDSU on the road losing by 4. Did you get your SDSU's mixed up? :D

Utah beat South Dakota St at home by 14 in December.

So you're saying San Diego and South Dakota are different? Which one has all the dead pheasants on the beach? I wasted a whole weekend trying to scalp Chargers tickets in Pierre?

[MarkD83]

One thing to remember before we get too serious in this thread is to enjoy the moment. There will plenty of "made for TV" commentary shows this week and we as fans get to enjoy folks talking about Duke and how well they are playing. I hope the players get to celebrate a little and then get back to being focused.

No matter what scouting we as fans do the key to the Utah game is the same as for the RM and SDSU games. Duke has to come out with focus and play intensely on both ends of the court.

[sagegrouse]

All-time series against Utah: 2-1. Our last game was a loss in the NIT in Bucky Waters's first season. Our last win was in the consolation game of the Final Four at Cole Field House in 1966.

(I would also like to report that Bob Verga with 15 points had recovered nicely from his illness that curtailed his performance against Kentucky the night before. Timing is everything.)

[Troublemaker]

I'll stop with my sarcasm. It is a bit of a superstition at this point for me. In the RM and SDSU threads once I put in a few sarcastic comments I was more relaxed and Duke won. So I have added my sarcastic comments to the thread to keep up the good karma.

Good man. Everyone needs to continue to do whatever it is they did for the past two games. Play your role.

Utah is a nightmare 4/5 seed. Nightmare.

[Dukehky]

We have one common opponent this year: SDSU. Utah split with them, losing on the road by 4 and winning at home by 14.

We also both beat Stanford

They won by 16 at home, we won by 11 neutral site.

[arnie]

I'm of two minds about the Utes. In the regular season, they went 3-7 against tournament teams. Their best win is a OT win against Wichita St. BUT they are KenPom #7, and we're KenPom #6 and went 10-3 against tournament teams. Utah's worst loss is a 9pt loss to Pac-12 doormat Washington while ours is a 16pt loss to bubble team Miami.

I think that paragraph says a lot about believing in KenPom or other stat games. We are clearly the better team and if an OT win over Wich State us your marquee, you're not 7th best team. Expect Vegas to make us at least 6-7 pt favorite.

[kmspeaks]

We have one common opponent this year: SDSU. Utah split with them, losing on the road by 4 and winning at home by 14.

Well that's all well and good but the real question is what does our margin of victory today mean for our Final Four chances? Should we have put another shot up at the end to get it to 20 so we're guaranteed a spot in Indy? Running out the clock at the end of blowouts has to come back to haunt us right?

[cakerace]

Why should next week's game be any different? (And Verga didn't have a single three in that one...)

[Henderson]

According to ESPN, of the 80 minutes we played this weekend, we led 61 of them by double digits.

What the heck happened those other 19 minutes? If we can't play complete games in Houston, it's over.

But seriously, what a great entre into the Utah game. Healthy, playing as well as the team has all season, taking care of business, Justise going home, and 5 days to rest and prepare. Great weekend; proud of the guys.

Utah as a lot more to worry about than we do.

[Dev11]

We (Jason, specifically) got a Utah person to help us preview the game for the podcast this week. We won't record until all the games are done tonight, but hopefully we can get it up before we get to sleep so you can have it as usual Monday morning.

[Troublemaker]

I think that paragraph says a lot about believing in KenPom or other stat games. We are clearly the better team and if an OT win over Wich State us your marquee, you're not 7th best team. Expect Vegas to make us at least 6-7 pt favorite.

It's 4.5 per Vegas Insider

That does contrast with Kenpom as expected who has us a 1-pt favorite (67-66 projection).

[BigZ]

The real question: who is Chris Burgess rooting for?

[arnie]

It's 4.5 per Vegas Insider

That does contrast with Kenpom as expected who has us a 1-pt favorite (67-66 projection).

Seems a little low; expect action on Duke to raise it a point or so. Course it may be a reflection on our inability to get to the line today.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Utah appears to be a very good team, possibly deserving of a higher seed. Ken Pomeroy's rankings view Utah as a very good team, among the 10 best in the country. Other ranking systems are not quite as enamored of Utah as KenPom. Most agree that they are a better defensive than offensive team but vastly superior to San Diego State. Pomeroy had SDSU ranked as the 4th most efficient offense whereas Utah is 7th. The difference between Utah and SDSU and the reason Pomeroy's rankings favor Utah so much more is that their offensive efficiency is vastly superior. As others have point out, Utah can shoot from 3 and from the free throw line.

Other ranking systems give a lot more edge to Duke in this matchup. After updating for the results of the Duke-SDSU game, Five Thirty Eight now gives Duke a 66% chance of victory. The RPI ranks Utah at 20th with a record of 1-3 against the top 25 and 2-4 against 26-50. They have a very good team, but Duke appears to be of a higher tier. There's a decent chance that Duke loses to Utah. But Duke appears to be very focused on its goal right now. If we play 30-35 minutes of focused basketball, it will be very tough for Utah to stop Duke from scoring.

[subzero02]

Do we know who'll be announcing the games in Houston. Please, anyone but Gottlieb.

[Utley]

Nantz rafterty and Grant. Interesting that they are following us and not KY. Must be the upset angle

[dukelifer]

Nantz rafterty and Grant. Interesting that they are following us and not KY. Must be the upset angle

Good luck so far

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Nantz rafterty and Grant. Interesting that they are following us and not KY. Must be the upset angle

No other regional final would be as "sexy" as Duke vs. Gonzaga or even Duke vs. UCLA.

Hence, the South region gets the #1 crew.

[NYBri]

Utah as a lot more to worry about than we do.

We have a winner.

[gofurman]

Can anyone give us a real scout report? Anyone watch Utah play this yr...

[scheyerfan]

do we have the start time yet?

[Duke95]

Can anyone give us a real scout report? Anyone watch Utah play this yr...

Yes. We will struggle to contain Delon Wright. He is a superb guard. He can drive and shoot the 3. Loveridge will also give us problems on the defensive end.
They have size and good guard play. This is a very tough matchup for us.

[Dukehky]

I would just like to say that I am terrified of Delon Wright, and other than him, I know nothing about Utah. Game plan pretty simple, we hit 3's, we win.

[Devilwin]

We can continue to play well, we will win this game, in fact, we stay focused and we can beat anybody, even Kentucky.

[1 24 90]

Duke got the late game around 9:45 on Friday night. Boo.

(according to the marchmadness twitter account)

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Duke got the late game around 9:45 on Friday night. Boo.

(according to the marchmadness twitter account)

8:45 local time.

[gocanes0506]

No other regional final would be as "sexy" as Duke vs. Gonzaga or even Duke vs. UCLA.

Hence, the South region gets the #1 crew.

I think Wichita State with the ability to repay for last year is pretty sexy.

[1 24 90]

8:45 local time.

Sorry, eastern time zone for me. Mostly perturbed that Gonzaga/UCLA get more rest by playing earlier especially with a Sunday afternoon regional final.

[Dukehky]

Sorry, eastern time zone for me. Mostly perturbed that Gonzaga/UCLA get more rest by playing earlier especially with a Sunday afternoon regional final.

I'm not as concerned about rest as I am about the uncertainty of when you will start playing. We had the second game in the ACC tourney (loss) and had it today (win), hopefully since we've gotten a little practice, we'll be okay with whatever may come.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I think Wichita State with the ability to repay for last year is pretty sexy.

To die-hard CBB fans like us, you have a point.

To the casual fans CBS wants to attract, Wichita who???

[Duke95]

Since I live in Utah, I've probably seen them play and heard more press about them than most here. I'm not saying I'm an expert, but I think we will have our hands full with Delon Wright. Loveridge was injured earlier in the year, but is playing well now. They are a legitimate threat. Wright is as good a guard as we have faced all year long. He's 1st or 2nd in scoring, assists, and rebounds on the team. I expect Cook will be on him. I'm not sure they have a real answer to Winslow though.

We will have a fight on our hands.

[SCMatt33]

Kind of surprised by the late game. Rest is nothing because if we win, it would be a 48 hour turnaround. That's a much bigger deal for the ACCT when you used to have 16 hour turnarounds for 3 seeds in the semis. As for the waiting before the start, it didn't affect Duke much today, and Utah will have to stand in the hallway same as us. Just seems weird that they put two west coast teams on at 6:15 on a Friday out there, when people are still getting home from work/eating. Then the east coast team goes on super late. I guess Utah fans are happy, that fits right into prime time for them.

All things considered, this isn't so bad. Wiscy has to deal with the dreaded late Sunday, early Thursday turnaround heading to the west coast. Only saving grace is that Carolina has a longer flight, but the extra day of rest. Of coarse, it's not like the committee would ever make a 1 seed travel across the country on a Sunday-Thursday turnaround to play a 4 seed on longer rest who's within driving distance. Oh wait...

[mr. synellinden]

I'm really surprised we got the late game. Depending on the timing of the first game, you could have Duke playing well after midnight on the east coast. You'd think CBS would want Duke starting about 8:00 on the east coast.

As far as Utah goes, we can stress about Delon Wright and their three point shooting all we want. How much do you think they're stressing trying to figure out how to defend Okafor and Winslow and Cook and Tyus? You don't get to this point in the tournament and face cupcakes. If we can't beat Utah, we're not beating Gonzaga or Arizona or Wisconsin, much less Kentucky. Duke is the highest rated team on its side of the bracket through the national championship game. That's as good a position we can be in at this point. We just have to go out and play our best for four more games. I liked hearing Coach K say that we are not physically or mentally fatigued.

[FerryFor50]

Since I live in Utah, I've probably seen them play and heard more press about them than most here. I'm not saying I'm an expert, but I think we will have our hands full with Delon Wright. Loveridge was injured earlier in the year, but is playing well now. They are a legitimate threat. Wright is as good a guard as we have faced all year long. He's 1st or 2nd in scoring, assists, and rebounds on the team. I expect Cook will be on him. I'm not sure they have a real answer to Winslow though.

We will have a fight on our hands.

I don't think Wright is the best guard Duke has seen this season. They have had to face Jerian Grant, Marcus Paige, Trevor Lacey, Ryan Boatright, Malcolm Brogden... Wright is in that class, but I think Grant is better.

As for Utah, I worry more about their size with Poeltl and Bachynski, but it's not like Duke hasn't played teams with big front lines.

I think it's not a terrible matchup. I'd have rather seen Georgetown or SFA, but I feel like Utah is just a better shooting SDSU.

[dukelifer]

I don't think Wright is the best guard Duke has seen this season. They have had to face Jerian Grant, Marcus Paige, Trevor Lacey, Ryan Boatright, Malcolm Brogden... Wright is in that class, but I think Grant is better.

As for Utah, I worry more about their size with Poeltl and Bachynski, but it's not like Duke hasn't played teams with big front lines.

I think it's not a terrible matchup. I'd have rather seen Georgetown or SFA, but I feel like Utah is just a better shooting SDSU.

It is not like he is dominating in the tourney. He has a lot of 11- 10 point games, but is capable of a big night. He is good but maybe not a pro.

[Duke95]

I don't think Wright is the best guard Duke has seen this season. They have had to face Jerian Grant, Marcus Paige, Trevor Lacey, Ryan Boatright, Malcolm Brogden... Wright is in that class, but I think Grant is better.

As for Utah, I worry more about their size with Poeltl and Bachynski, but it's not like Duke hasn't played teams with big front lines.

I think it's not a terrible matchup. I'd have rather seen Georgetown or SFA, but I feel like Utah is just a better shooting SDSU.

Well, I'd say Wright is maybe 2nd to Grant in that list...maybe tied with Paige.
He's better than Brogden.

[ICP]

I think that paragraph says a lot about believing in KenPom or other stat games. We are clearly the better team and if an OT win over Wich State us your marquee, you're not 7th best team. Expect Vegas to make us at least 6-7 pt favorite.

Amen to that! Kenpom is bs. Watch the games and the scores. That's all you need to figure out they are absolutely not the 7th best team (more like top 20), nor are we the 6th (top 3 in most people's eyes)

[GGLC]

It is not like he is dominating in the tourney. He has a lot of 11- 10 point games, but is capable of a big night. He is good but maybe not a pro.

Barring injury, Delon Wright will have a long NBA career.

[SoCalDukeFan]

If we play close to our best next weekend then we are in the FF.

SoCal

[The Gordog]

We have one common opponent this year: SDSU. Utah split with them, losing on the road by 4 and winning at home by 14.

So they are about 5 points better than SDSU? ((14+-4)/2) - - I predict we win by 14.

JK. Should be a battle, but I feel really good about our chances.

[ice-9]

It makes no sense at all, but every time this forum gets confident about our next opponent I get the heebie jeebies.

Hope it'll amount to nothing.

[gam7]

Yes. We will struggle to contain Delon Wright. He is a superb guard. He can drive and shoot the 3. Loveridge will also give us problems on the defensive end.
They have size and good guard play. This is a very tough matchup for us.

Delon Wright may be superb, but his three-point shooting is not what I'm afraid of. He's 26-72 from 3 (averaging far less than one make per game) for .361, which is one of the worst 3-point percentages on their team. His 72 attempts rank fourth on the team to Loveridge (118 attempts), Taylor (180) and Tucker (111) with Loveridge and Taylor averaging about 44-45% and Tucker at about roughly the same % as Wright.

I haven't seen much of them, but Wright's general physical resemblance to Rip Hamilton concerns me - he's a few inches shorter but other than that...

They pretty clearly prefer to play slow. I would imagine we will want to push tempo as much as possible. Our versatility in playing style is going to help us in this game. I see Justise coast-to-coast rim runs before the defense is set being a big factor in this one. I like our chances.

[dukelifer]

Barring injury, Delon Wright will have a long NBA career.

I suppose that remains to be seen. He is projected as a late first rounder. He has NBA size but is not explosive and his shooting will need to improve. His NBA prospects may hinge on his ability to play D. He is is a lot like Jerian Grant- an older player with decent size at his position. He is not a great matchup for the Duke guards - no question- but he can be up and down offensively. .

[Duke3517]

Utah has tremendous size that can handle Okafor inside. They also have very quick guards. This could be a bad matchup for Duke. The one positive that Duke has is they might not have a good matchup for Winslow. This will probably be Duke's toughest game of the season up to this point.

[NashvilleDevil]

Utah has tremendous size that can handle Okafor inside. They also have very quick guards. This could be a bad matchup for Duke. The one positive that Duke has is they might not have a good matchup for Winslow. This will probably be Duke's toughest game of the season up to this point.

Tougher than @UVA, @Wisconsin, @Louisville, both Carolina games, @Notre Dame? Utah is tough for sure but Okafor has gone against size before and he has handled himself in all those games. He had a monster game against Florida St and even though the Noles are not as good as the Utes they do have size. I also recall that SDSU had a big front line that would give Okafor trouble and all he did was score 26 points. You say Utah will be Duke's toughest game of the year but will Duke be Utah's toughest game of the year? I think so.

[MarkD83]

It makes no sense at all, but every time this forum gets confident about our next opponent I get the heebie jeebies.

Hope it'll amount to nothing.

Is it time for another sarcastic comment like....."Utah is the team that beat the best 12 seed in the tournament so we are doomed."

[Duke3517]

Tougher than @UVA, @Wisconsin, @Louisville, both Carolina games, @Notre Dame? Utah is tough for sure but Okafor has gone against size before and he has handled himself in all those games. He had a monster game against Florida St and even though the Noles are not as good as the Utes they do have size. I also recall that SDSU had a big front line that would give Okafor trouble and all he did was score 26 points. You say Utah will be Duke's toughest game of the year but will Duke be Utah's toughest game of the year? I think so.

Absolutely, I'm not saying Duke is not prepared for what they will encounter with Utah. The fact that Utah has a lot of skills that can present problems to Duke and the fact it is the sweet 16 suggests to me this will be Duke's toughest game to date. I have a lot of respect for this years Utah team and feel Duke didn't get an easy draw in the tournament (though I doubt their is an easy route).

[Duke76]

I'm really surprised we got the late game. Depending on the timing of the first game, you could have Duke playing well after midnight on the east coast. You'd think CBS would want Duke starting about 8:00 on the east coast.

As far as Utah goes, we can stress about Delon Wright and their three point shooting all we want. How much do you think they're stressing trying to figure out how to defend Okafor and Winslow and Cook and Tyus? You don't get to this point in the tournament and face cupcakes. If we can't beat Utah, we're not beating Gonzaga or Arizona or Wisconsin, much less Kentucky. Duke is the highest rated team on its side of the bracket through the national championship game. That's as good a position we can be in at this point. We just have to go out and play our best for four more games. I liked hearing Coach K say that we are not physically or mentally fatigued.


if it was a Thursday game we would be playing early game but on a Friday night people tend to stay up later and for Duke nobody, even the haters are going to bed...cbs knows what they are doing

[Duke76]

Utah has tremendous size that can handle Okafor inside. They also have very quick guards. This could be a bad matchup for Duke. The one positive that Duke has is they might not have a good matchup for Winslow. This will probably be Duke's toughest game of the season up to this point.

oh please....will you stop it already. at this point every game is a tough one but tougher than Wisconsin, Carolina Irish....please. Think Cook will be on this guy like he was Paige at UNC and others preventing him from getting his normal touches.....if we can keep the fast guard from getting the ball that is our best chance from keeping them blowing past us in the lane.

Who's gonna stop Winslow...he's becoming our 3rd guard at 6'6" with handle and strength....we are adapting into a different team than we were earlier. K is having a great year coaching...love his comment about when he calls timeouts "by feel" he is seeing the game as if he is the point guard playing.....love that and never heard him make that comment...these guys are locked in

[Duke3517]

oh please....will you stop it already. at this point every game is a tough one but tougher than Wisconsin, Carolina Irish....please. Think Cook will be on this guy like he was Paige at UNC and others preventing him from getting his normal touches.....if we can keep the fast guard from getting the ball that is our best chance from keeping them blowing past us in the lane.

Who's gonna stop Winslow...he's becoming our 3rd guard at 6'6" with handle and strength....we are adapting into a different team than we were earlier. K is having a great year coaching...love his comment about when he calls timeouts "by feel" he is seeing the game as if he is the point guard playing.....love that and never heard him make that comment...these guys are locked in

The difference of those games are they are in the regular season. The intensity is much higher and their is more stake. Utah is a very good team where Duke has to be focused for all 40 minutes.

[OldPhiKap]

Utah is a very good team.

Duke is a very good team.

I like our chances, but expect a war. It looks like the ACC regular season has been good preparation for the Tournament so far.

Go Duke!

[sagegrouse]

I'm really surprised we got the late game. Depending on the timing of the first game, you could have Duke playing well after midnight on the east coast. You'd think CBS would want Duke starting about 8:00 on the east coast.

.

I expect it is a network television problem. Duke starting at 8 means the first game starts at 5:30 in EDT and 4:30 in CDT, or earlier, disrupting the affiliates' profitable evening news shows.

Start times are not usually an issue with ESPN or other cable providers.

[Duke76]

The difference of those games are they are in the regular season. The intensity is much higher and their is more stake. Utah is a very good team where Duke has to be focused for all 40 minutes.

and Utah doesn't have to do the same?

[DBFAN]

The difference of those games are they are in the regular season. The intensity is much higher and their is more stake. Utah is a very good team where Duke has to be focused for all 40 minutes.

I get what you are saying about there being more at stake, but I have a hard time believing the intensity will be higher than it was in Chapel Hill, or at UVA, or at Wisc, or Louisville. The one thing to keep in mind is that when the intensity had risen, this teams play has risen. The intensity increases this teams focus. They simply dont have those lulls like they do in games that aren't as "significant". I have gotten excited all year for these kind of games, because believe it or not, that's when these Freshman play their butts off. That is to be expected, because regular games can be hard for young kids to concentrate for entire 40 min. I figured that out when they went to Wisc

Yes Utah is a good squad, otherwise they wouldn't be here. But Duke is better, and had played a much tougher schedule than them. Yeah they have a very good guard, but we have 2 very good guards, a sensational Wing in Winslow, and the best player in the country in Okafor. And if that doesn't help, with it being Winslow's old stomping ground, and no Texas teams left in the tourney, there should be a pretty good showing of Duke fans, or at least people there to cheer for Winslow

[Troublemaker]

It makes no sense at all, but every time this forum gets confident about our next opponent I get the heebie jeebies.

Hope it'll amount to nothing.

It actually makes a decent amount of sense to me. I mean, why wouldn't there be at least some correlation between the fans feeling threatened / unthreatened about an opponent and the players feeling threatened / unthreatened about an opponent?

For example, in the ACCT, because we had lost to NCSU earlier in the season and because the Pack had been playing well recently, we were extremely concerned about that game. It makes sense then that NCSU had the players' attention, too. So Duke came out extremely focused and blew out the Wolfpack.

Then, because Duke had destroyed Notre Dame by 30 in Cameron, the fans -- and I include myself here -- sort of overlooked the Irish. Same as the team. And that led to a loss.

It's happened numerous times this year where this forum served as a good proxy for whether the team was focused. Think we'll beat VaTech by 30? Struggle to win by one. Think we're doomed at Louisville? End up winning comfortably.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I don't see a single player on Utah's roster capable of handling Justice Winslow. If he does what he did on Sunday, then we are in good shape. I expect them to shoot well and play solid Defense, and JW is capable of getting the ball out ahead of that defense and taking it to the cup before they can get set. I am intrigued by what kind of wrinkles K adds to the game plan. I think we may see a similar game plan to what we saw against Wisconsin early in the season. This whole team shoots well and we can't afford to lose anyone, maybe switching at every position will work. Either way I cannot wait for Friday night!!! Lets Go Duke!!!

It was nice to be able to enjoy the first weekend this year, I almost forgot how much fun it can be!!!

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

It actually makes a decent amount of sense to me. I mean, why wouldn't there be at least some correlation between the fans feeling threatened / unthreatened about an opponent and the players feeling threatened / unthreatened about an opponent?

For example, in the ACCT, because we had lost to NCSU earlier in the season and because the Pack had been playing well recently, we were extremely concerned about that game. It makes sense then that NCSU had the players' attention, too. So Duke came out extremely focused and blew out the Wolfpack.

Then, because Duke had destroyed Notre Dame by 30 in Cameron, the fans -- and I include myself here -- sort of overlooked the Irish. Same as the team. And that led to a loss.

It's happened numerous times this year where this forum served as a good proxy for whether the team was focused. Think we'll beat VaTech by 30? Struggle to win by one. Think we're doomed at Louisville? End up winning comfortably.

Fair enough but if the team isn't focused in the sweet 16 against a top 10 opponent, then there is a problem. I think in this case our fans just don't know what to make of the Runnin Utes... I am not familiar with them so I am putting all my stock into what I know. Coach K has 5 days to game plan, the players have plenty of time to rest, we have Jah, we have Winslow, and we have some great wins!!!

Hopefully we can get another one on Friday followed by another one on Sunday, then 2 more wins in INDY!!!!

[OldPhiKap]

If I am counting right, we have played 10 games against Sweet Sixteen teams this year and won 7 of them.

Mich. St. (neutral) - W
@Wisky - W
UNC - 2W's
@ L'ville - W
ND -- 1W, 2L
State -- 1W, 1 L

I don't know what will happen next, but I think we are clearly as battle-tested as we could get and have good results to show so far.

I am not taking anyone lightly. I do think, though, we often overlook that the biggest problem in an upcoming game is the opposing team figuring us out and not vice versa. This team can play on a big stage, and the ACC season has obviously prepared a number of teams to do well.

I wonder how everyone else has done against the Sweet Sixteen. And My guess is that Sparty and Whisky do not have many games against that competition.

[Troublemaker]

Fair enough but if the team isn't focused in the sweet 16 against a top 10 opponent, then there is a problem. I think in this case our fans just don't know what to make of the Runnin Utes... I am not familiar with them so I am putting all my stock into what I know. Coach K has 5 days to game plan, the players have plenty of time to rest, we have Jah, we have Winslow, and we have some great wins!!!

Hopefully we can get another one on Friday followed by another one on Sunday, then 2 more wins in INDY!!!!

I think we'll be okay against Utah. There will be enough people on this forum -- and I include myself here -- concerned about Utah's very good guards, including a big NBA point guard in Wright, and Utah's defense and Kenpom ranking. I believe Utah will have the players' full attention as well for those same reasons (maybe not Kenpom) and because Delon Wright reminds them of Jerian Grant. The Wright / Grant comparison will be made several times by our players / coaches this week.

But if, for whatever reason, Duke ends up handling the Utes comfortably, NOTHING is going to stop this forum from being overconfident against Gonzaga or UCLA.

Hopefully the connection between fans and players will be severed at that point.

[kcarson]

I agree that Delon Wright could be a matchup nightmare for us. However, look at his stats against top 30 KenPom teams. In 7 games against that competition, he only managed to get above 15 points twice, once against Kansas and the other against Arizona. Those are both impressive games, but I think if we hold him to 15 points or less, you have to like our chances. He's also had some 20+ scoring games and they still lost, against weak competition. Plus, like others have said, while Wright may be a tough matchup, Utah has at least 2 HUGE matchup nightmares to worry about.

[DBFAN]

I think sometimes we forget that thinking "we" weren't ready doesn't mean the TEAM wasn't ready. Those could have been bad games, or it could be that people were sick..aka Notre Dame. (Although I'm not convinced winning that last matchup with ND was all that important to the coaches). The only game to me that we lost when the intensity had risen, was the game at ND, and it took a circus shot from one of the best players in the country to beat us.

[DBFAN]

I'm also pretty sure that if we as fans are confident or pessimistic, has no bearing on how the game actually plays out

[Indoor66]

I'm also pretty sure that if we as fans are confident or pessimistic, has no bearing on how the game actually plays out

But one must always respect the dreaded Weaufx Gods.

[Troublemaker]

I think sometimes we forget that thinking "we" weren't ready doesn't mean the TEAM wasn't ready. Those could have been bad games, or it could be that people were sick..aka Notre Dame. (Although I'm not convinced winning that last matchup with ND was all that important to the coaches). The only game to me that we lost when the intensity had risen, was the game at ND, and it took a circus shot from one of the best players in the country to beat us.

The players and coaches outright said they were not ready for Notre Dame in the ACC semis.


I'm also pretty sure that if we as fans are confident or pessimistic, has no bearing on how the game actually plays out

Of course not. Correlation does not mean causation.

[rifraf]

I'm looking at this game in almost the exact same way I've looked at every other game:

Would I rather have Tyus/Quinn or the other teams guards? Answer: Tyus/Quinn
Would I rather have Jah or the other team's inside man? Answer: Jah
Do they have someone like Winslow? Answer: No
Would I rather have K or their coach? Answer: K

We have the better team, and we have the better coach. Yes they're one of the best defensive teams, but so were Virginia and SDSU.

As in almost any game, our worst enemy is ourselves. If we can play at our best for 40 minutes, we can beat anyone. If we can stay focused for 40 minutes, even if we get a big lead, we can beat anyone. If we slip at all we can be beat. It's the Sweet 16 and Utah is likely underseeded. This is going to be one of the biggest games the program has had in a while, and they get a shot at one of the premiere programs in the country. I don't think this game will be easy, and I'm very nervous about it, but if we can execute for 40 minutes then I think we'll win. I'm hoping Quinn keeps the team locked in and focused during the week and they come out playing strong, hard, and fast and put it away early.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I'm looking at this game in almost the exact same way I've looked at every other game:

Would I rather have Tyus/Quinn or the other teams guards? Answer: Tyus/Quinn
Would I rather have Jah or the other team's inside man? Answer: Jah
Do they have someone like Winslow? Answer: No
Would I rather have K or their coach? Answer: K

We have the better team, and we have the better coach. Yes they're one of the best defensive teams, but so were Virginia and SDSU.

As in almost any game, our worst enemy is ourselves. If we can play at our best for 40 minutes, we can beat anyone. If we can stay focused for 40 minutes, even if we get a big lead, we can beat anyone. If we slip at all we can be beat. It's the Sweet 16 and Utah is likely underseeded. This is going to be one of the biggest games the program has had in a while, and they get a shot at one of the premiere programs in the country. I don't think this game will be easy, and I'm very nervous about it, but if we can execute for 40 minutes then I think we'll win. I'm hoping Quinn keeps the team locked in and focused during the week and they come out playing strong, hard, and fast and put it away early.

But if you ask Carolina fans we have the worst 2, the worst 3 seed, the worst 4 seed and the worst 5 seed, oh and we are going to cake walk into the final four!!! I'm not sure who to believe, I'm confused now, surely the stellar folks at IC wouldn't be biased and just be saying that Utah is a joke to discredit anything that Duke does...

[FerryFor50]

I agree that Delon Wright could be a matchup nightmare for us. However, look at his stats against top 30 KenPom teams. In 7 games against that competition, he only managed to get above 15 points twice, once against Kansas and the other against Arizona. Those are both impressive games, but I think if we hold him to 15 points or less, you have to like our chances. He's also had some 20+ scoring games and they still lost, against weak competition. Plus, like others have said, while Wright may be a tough matchup, Utah has at least 2 HUGE matchup nightmares to worry about.

I would agree, but never discount the Bootsy Thornton Theorem.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think we'll be okay against Utah. There will be enough people on this forum -- and I include myself here -- concerned about Utah's very good guards, including a big NBA point guard in Wright, and Utah's defense and Kenpom ranking. I believe Utah will have the players' full attention as well for those same reasons (maybe not Kenpom) and because Delon Wright reminds them of Jerian Grant. The Wright / Grant comparison will be made several times by our players / coaches this week.

But if, for whatever reason, Duke ends up handling the Utes comfortably, NOTHING is going to stop this forum from being overconfident against Gonzaga or UCLA.

Hopefully the connection between fans and players will be severed at that point.

Count me in as one of the posters who is worried. Not because Utah is good (and they are), but because it's the Sweet Sixteen.

I really like our match-up with Utah. Wright is the engine that drives the team, but he isn't our kryptonite. He's big, 3pt shooter, and good at getting/finishing at the rim, but he isn't quick or fast. He's not a Jerian Grant or any of the three NC State guards. He's more like a bigger, better version of Marcus Paige.

Also, we have two players that they just can't match up with: Okafor (no one can match up with Okafor) and Winslow. Winslow will punish either Loveridge or Reyes if he plays as well as he did against SDSU. And you know who's been quiet? Tyus Jones. I expect him to have a great game soon.

I like the match up, but I'm always worrried cus it's the Sweet Sixteen. I think we'll be ready and aggressive. I trust Cook and K to get em ready.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I see Justise coast-to-coast rim runs before the defense is set being a big factor in this one.

This. When Justise, Tyus, or Quinn get long rebounds off of three point shots, we need to break hard. We've been doing that a lot this year and it will be hugely important in the game against Utah.

[FerryFor50]

Count me in as one of the posters who is worried. Not because Utah is good (and they are), but because it's the Sweet Sixteen.

I really like our match-up with Utah. Wright is the engine that drives the team, but he isn't our kryptonite. He's big, 3pt shooter, and good at getting/finishing at the rim, but he isn't quick or fast. He's not a Jerian Grant or any of the three NC State guards. He's more like a bigger, better version of Marcus Paige.

Also, we have two players that they just can't match up with: Okafor (no one can match up with Okafor) and Winslow. Winslow will punish either Loveridge or Reyes if he plays as well as he did against SDSU. And you know who's been quiet? Tyus Jones. I expect him to have a great game soon.

I like the match up, but I'm always worrried cus it's the Sweet Sixteen. I think we'll be ready and aggressive. I trust Cook and K to get em ready.

I think Utah is a very good team, but I like how Duke has responded when playing very good teams this season. When a team has Duke's full attention, they tend to do very well. Focus has been the key to this season's team and when they have been focused, they have rolled.

[kcarson]

Count me in as one of the posters who is worried. Not because Utah is good (and they are), but because it's the Sweet Sixteen.

I really like our match-up with Utah. Wright is the engine that drives the team, but he isn't our kryptonite. He's big, 3pt shooter, and good at getting/finishing at the rim, but he isn't quick or fast. He's not a Jerian Grant or any of the three NC State guards. He's more like a bigger, better version of Marcus Paige.

Also, we have two players that they just can't match up with: Okafor (no one can match up with Okafor) and Winslow. Winslow will punish either Loveridge or Reyes if he plays as well as he did against SDSU. And you know who's been quiet? Tyus Jones. I expect him to have a great game soon.

I like the match up, but I'm always worrried cus it's the Sweet Sixteen. I think we'll be ready and aggressive. I trust Cook and K to get em ready.

Ha trusting Cook to get them ready. Sounds weird but it's so true. He really has been a joy to watch this year. (Not that any of them haven't). But man, his senior leadership and presence has been unbelievable and absolutely necessary for this team. Watching DBP videos, you can just see the way he interacts with the freshmen and how he's taken them under his wing. Especially Tyus and Okafor. That's been huge and will be huge for Utah on the court as well. Him and Amile have done a great job on the court of calming the youngsters down when needed.

[davekay1971]

I would agree, but never discount the Bootsy Thornton Theorem.

At this time of year, you bring up He Who Shall Not Be Named?! What are you thinking!

Reading more and more about Utah, it seems like this is a team we should not zone (they seem to have multiple 3 point shooters), but to go man we have to contain Wright. Quinn may be the best option - put our senior, who has really worked to improve his defense, on their best guy. Matt may also be a good option, as his height might do alot to bother Wright.

Interested to hear other people's thoughts on defensive strategies.

As for offense, this team is at that point the 2010 team hit for the NCAAT. In K's words: "Just be you. You is enough."

[wgl1228]

I really noticed a different type of energy and confidence in Okafor's play yesterday (even on defense). If we continue to have that and Winslow's play, we are in great shape.

[DBFAN]

The players and coaches outright said they were not ready for Notre Dame in the ACC semis.



Of course not. Correlation does not mean causation.

Ok I see your point, but I would have to ask WHY were they not ready. It's also important to note that from the start of that Game ( I'm assuming the tourney game) Cook looked different than he did in any other game this year, prob because of his body still recovering from being sick. I would also imagine that every answer that comes from coaches in press conferences aren't always completely truthful. Those guys are playing Chess 100% of the time, and letting anybody know what was really wrong is not how you play that game

I'm not suggesting they coached a loss, because I honestly don't think K could make himself do that, I do believe however, that sometimes a lesson is better than a W

[OldPhiKap]

I really noticed a different type of energy and confidence in Okafor's play yesterday (even on defense). If we continue to have that and Winslow's play, we are in great shape.

Agreed. A drive from the elbow, a few jumpers from 15' or so, a drive from the three point line down the end line. As someone who has watched a ton of Oak this year, not sure I was ready for all of that PLUS the usual stud paint and floor-running stuff. Kid is real deal. And Winslow in the open floor is really hard to contain.

Fun team, keep the ride going.

[FerryFor50]

At this time of year, you bring up He Who Shall Not Be Named?! What are you thinking!

Reading more and more about Utah, it seems like this is a team we should not zone (they seem to have multiple 3 point shooters), but to go man we have to contain Wright. Quinn may be the best option - put our senior, who has really worked to improve his defense, on their best guy. Matt may also be a good option, as his height might do alot to bother Wright.

Interested to hear other people's thoughts on defensive strategies.

As for offense, this team is at that point the 2010 team hit for the NCAAT. In K's words: "Just be you. You is enough."

Wright is 6'5". Jones (6'4") would probably be a better choice to put on Wright than Cook (6'2") and I'd rotate Justise onto him when possible (like when Loveridge isn't in the game). I'd put Cook on their 5'10" guard Brandon Taylor, who can shoot (44% from 3).

Poeltl will be a pain in the rear, but hopefully Okafor can get him into foul trouble. He's had a pretty good tournament so far (18 and 8 vs SFA and 10 vs G'town). They'll likely throw Poeltl and Bachinski at Okafor and just pound on him and hope no calls are made.

[wilson]

It seems to me as if Amile has been progressively less integral to the team as the season has gone along. His shot really hasn't been there all year, and as we've noted here, declining confidence in that phase of his game seems to have seeped into other aspects of his play. This past weekend, to my eyes, Jefferson seemed to have all but disappeared. Yesterday's box score says that he played 9 minutes, but I can't recall a single sequence or play wherein he made an impact on the game.
I recognize that this is a harsh assessment of Amile's season and his importance to the team at this juncture, but really, I'm just wondering where he is. I would really like to see him re-emerge this weekend. There have been a number of recent posts that this team seems to be showing shades of 2010, especially with regard to the current verve and efficiency on offense. To me, Amile is the Lance Thomas analogue on this roster, but he has really seemed anonymous of late. I think we'll really need him the rest of the way, especially if we should end up in matchups against the frontline size of Gonzaga and/or Kentucky.

[FerryFor50]

It seems to me as if Amile has been progressively less integral to the team as the season has gone along. His shot really hasn't been there all year, and as we've noted here, declining confidence in that phase of his game seems to have seeped into other aspects of his play. This past weekend, to my eyes, Jefferson seemed to have all but disappeared. Yesterday's box score says that he played 9 minutes, but I can't recall a single sequence or play wherein he made an impact on the game.
I recognize that this is a harsh assessment of Amile's season and his importance to the team at this juncture, but really, I'm just wondering where he is. i would really like to see him re-emerge this weekend. There have been a number of recent posts that this team seems to be showing shades of 2010, especially with regard to the current verve and efficiency on offense. To me, Amile is the Lance Thomas analogue on this roster, but he has really seemed anonymous of late. I think we'll really need him the rest of the way, especially if we should end up in matchups against the frontline size of Gonzaga and/or Kentucky.

Amile wasn't really needed as much because 1) SDSU was a bad matchup for him with their length and his lack of offense, 2) MP3's emergence and 3) Okafor and Winslow were never in any foul trouble.

Amile's limited skill set relegates him to reserve role unless he needs to come in for foul trouble. There will be teams that present better matchups, provided Duke can advance.

[Billy Dat]

It seems to me as if Amile has been progressively less integral to the team as the season has gone along. His shot really hasn't been there all year, and as we've noted here, declining confidence in that phase of his game seems to have seeped into other aspects of his play. This past weekend, to my eyes, Jefferson seemed to have all but disappeared. Yesterday's box score says that he played 9 minutes, but I can't recall a single sequence or play wherein he made an impact on the game.
I recognize that this is a harsh assessment of Amile's season and his importance to the team at this juncture, but really, I'm just wondering where he is. i would really like to see him re-emerge this weekend. There have been a number of recent posts that this team seems to be showing shades of 2010, especially with regard to the current verve and efficiency on offense. To me, Amile is the Lance Thomas analogue on this roster, but he has really seemed anonymous of late. I think we'll really need him the rest of the way, especially if we should end up in matchups against the frontline size of Gonzaga and/or Kentucky.

I think Amile's shrinking role has less to do with what he is or isn't doing and more to do with Justise's seizing of the 4 position. K absolutely loves the mismatch that Winslow represents for opposing 4s. Matt Jones is a better perimeter defender than Amile and can guard opposing 3s. I think that's the whole story. Amile is a fantastic rebounder, especially on offense, so I think we lose that when he doesn't play, but K spent a huge chunk of yesterday's on-court post-game interview with Tracy Wolfson praising Justise's defensive rebounding.

My gut tells me we'll need Amile in a big way at some point, and I think he's veteran and mature enough to understand that, but the Rasheed dismissal shook up the roster in a way that promoted Jones and shrunk Amile due to Justise's continued emergence.

[DukeinDC]

Amile wasn't really needed as much because 1) SDSU was a bad matchup for him with their length and his lack of offense, 2) MP3's emergence and 3) Okafor and Winslow were never in any foul trouble.

Amile's limited skill set relegates him to reserve role unless he needs to come in for foul trouble. There will be teams that present better matchups, provided Duke can advance.

Agreed. Amile isn't necessary against every team but we'll need him at some point depending on a specific defensive strategy against Jah or if we decide to apply consistent full court pressure such as the trapping role he played Chapel Hill. Biggest thing for him is to stay confident, not force it, and be ready when his time comes.

[FerryFor50]

Agreed. Amile isn't necessary against every team but we'll need him at some point depending on a specific defensive strategy against Jah or if we decide to apply consistent full court pressure such as the trapping role he played Chapel Hill. Biggest thing for him is to stay confident, not force it, and be ready when his time comes.

I noticed one of the wrinkles with Justise at the 4 was his hard cuts to the basket on Okafor double teams. Amile used to cut, too, but rarely got the pass, likely because of his reluctance/inability to finish. Justise actually commands respect on those cuts, so that forces the defense to sag off a bit more, which opens things up for Jah.

Granted, SDSU covered those passes to Winslow well with deflections, but the idea of Winslow being there is disruptive to defenses that want to double Okafor.

[subzero02]

I noticed one of the wrinkles with Justise at the 4 was his hard cuts to the basket on Okafor double teams. Amile used to cut, too, but rarely got the pass, likely because of his reluctance/inability to finish. Justise actually commands respect on those cuts, so that forces the defense to sag off a bit more, which opens things up for Jah.

Granted, SDSU covered those passes to Winslow well with deflections, but the idea of Winslow being there is disruptive to defenses that want to double Okafor.

Winslow did have one monster dunk off a cut yesterday. With Jah often getting the ball outside of the lane, there is definitely room for a cutter to operate.

[Troublemaker]

Reading more and more about Utah, it seems like this is a team we should not zone (they seem to have multiple 3 point shooters), but to go man we have to contain Wright. Quinn may be the best option - put our senior, who has really worked to improve his defense, on their best guy. Matt may also be a good option, as his height might do alot to bother Wright.

Interested to hear other people's thoughts on defensive strategies.

Utah is a very good pick-n-roll team. (So is Gonzaga, coincidentally). How successful Duke defends against pick-n-roll will determine whether we can stay in man. I agree it's not ideal to zone Utah; they can shoot, they can pass, they can offensive rebound. But our hand may be forced.

Duke's going to ice ball screens as we've done all season. And Utah's going to run ball screens relentlessly as they've done all season. So it's going to become an Okafor vs Wright matchup on defense. Wright will drive down the lane towards the rim right at Jahlil. If Jah can avoid fouls and force Wright into missing about half of his short 2-pt shots, then Duke will stay in m2m and will probably end up winning comfortably. If Wright is drawing fouls, converting 3-pt plays and generally scoring at an efficient rate, then we will have to zone and pray that Utah misses shots.

The one thing Duke will not do is help off shooters to contain Wright. That's when Utah is at their best and most efficient (because 3s > 2s). Wright is the master of hanging in the air and kicking out at the last second to a wide-open shooter who got free because the defender was expecting Wright to shoot. Remember the game at South Bend when Jerian Grant hung in the air and kicked to Vasturia at the last second for the game-winning three-pointer? Delon Wright does that over and over. Our perimeter players have to stay disciplined on their shooters.

[FerryFor50]

Utah is a very good pick-n-roll team. (So is Gonzaga, coincidentally). How successful Duke defends against pick-n-roll will determine whether we can stay in man. I agree it's not ideal to zone Utah; they can shoot, they can pass, they can offensive rebound. But our hand may be forced.

Duke's going to ice ball screens as we've done all season. And Utah's going to run ball screens relentlessly as they've done all season. So it's going to become an Okafor vs Wright matchup on defense. Wright will drive down the lane towards the rim right at Jahlil. If Jah can avoid fouls and force Wright into missing about half of his short 2-pt shots, then Duke will stay in m2m and will probably end up winning comfortably. If Wright is drawing fouls, converting 3-pt plays and generally scoring at an efficient rate, then we will have to zone and pray that Utah misses shots.

The one thing Duke will not do is help off shooters to contain Wright. That's when Utah is at their best and most efficient (because 3s > 2s). Wright is the master of hanging in the air and kicking out at the last second to a wide-open shooter who got free because the defender was expecting Wright to shoot. Remember the game at South Bend when Jerian Grant hung in the air and kicked to Vasturia at the last second for the game-winning three-pointer? Delon Wright does that over and over. Our perimeter players have to stay disciplined on their shooters.

I noticed that Grant does this pretty much *every* game. It's a terrible habit to jump before you know what you're going to do with the ball. I'd hope that game tape shows that when a player does that, stay disciplined and don't ball watch and you'll force plenty of turnovers.

[Philadukie]

If I am counting right, we have played 10 games against Sweet Sixteen teams this year and won 7 of them.

Mich. St. (neutral) - W
@Wisky - W
UNC - 2W's
@ L'ville - W
ND -- 1W, 2L
State -- 1W, 1 L



Not only does this list show the quality of our wins, but also the quality of our losses. We really only have one "bad" loss with that Miami game at home.

Two of the three losses above were due to lack of focus (I would argue), while the other was a very close loss to an excellent team on their home court.

Utah is a very good team, but if we come out intense and focused, we have a better shot of winning than they do (unless Utah plays the game of their lives a la Arizona in 2011, which is always possible).

[Kedsy]

I agree with those who worry about loss of focus. I think a critical segment of the game (both against Utah and, if we advance, against Gonzaga/UCLA) will be the first half of the first half. In every game we've underachieved (NCSU 1, Miami, FSU, VaTech, ND1, ND3) we've come out relatively flat and either been behind or about even after the first 8 to 12 minutes. Then if we lulled at all in the second half, we lost (or at least came down to the wire). So, to me, coming out strong and building an early lead is a key.

[CDu]

I think Amile's shrinking role has less to do with what he is or isn't doing and more to do with Justise's seizing of the 4 position. K absolutely loves the mismatch that Winslow represents for opposing 4s. Matt Jones is a better perimeter defender than Amile and can guard opposing 3s. I think that's the whole story. Amile is a fantastic rebounder, especially on offense, so I think we lose that when he doesn't play, but K spent a huge chunk of yesterday's on-court post-game interview with Tracy Wolfson praising Justise's defensive rebounding.

My gut tells me we'll need Amile in a big way at some point, and I think he's veteran and mature enough to understand that, but the Rasheed dismissal shook up the roster in a way that promoted Jones and shrunk Amile due to Justise's continued emergence.

I agree. Winslow's ability to step up and handle the assignment at PF (and his ability to cause problems for the other team's PF) has been huge. Jefferson just can't compete with that, and with Winslow being able to defensive rebound as well as Jefferson (he has actually been slightly better than Jefferson at it this year), Coach K has been more than willing to go to the lineup more.

It actually works really well because Winslow and Matt Jones at the forward spots allows Duke to go with a 4-out, 1-in approach and maximize floor space for Okafor.

Just bad luck for Jefferson that Winslow is proving capable enough defensively at PF, which mitigates much of Jefferson's value.

[roywhite]

I'm seeing Duke as a 5.5 point favorite over Utah in published lines.

For our neighbors:
Wisconsin a 5.5 point favorite over UNC
Louisville a 2 point favorite over NC State

[NashvilleDevil]

Not only does this list show the quality of our wins, but also the quality of our losses. We really only have one "bad" loss with that Miami game at home.

Two of the three losses above were due to lack of focus (I would argue), while the other was a very close loss to an excellent team on their home court.

Utah is a very good team, but if we come out intense and focused, we have a better shot of winning than they do (unless Utah plays the game of their lives a la Arizona in 2011, which is always possible).

While the 2011 Wildcats played the game of their lives I still think that Singler going to the bench to to get some bleeding stopped was the turning point of the game. Duke was up, Singler goes out and Arizona goes nuts.

[FerryFor50]

While the 2011 Wildcats played the game of their lives I still think that Singler going to the bench to to get some bleeding stopped was the turning point of the game. Duke was up, Singler goes out and Arizona goes nuts.

How's Derrick Williams doing these days? (Duke karma!)

[The Gordog]

While the 2011 Wildcats played the game of their lives I still think that Singler going to the bench to to get some bleeding stopped was the turning point of the game. Duke was up, Singler goes out and Arizona goes nuts.

In the second half their guards did all the scoring - Kyrie was still not 100% and could not defend effectively.

[mr. synellinden]

While the 2011 Wildcats played the game of their lives I still think that Singler going to the bench to to get some bleeding stopped was the turning point of the game. Duke was up, Singler goes out and Arizona goes nuts.

I think Seth Curry leaving that game with an injury had a lot to do with the momentum shift.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The size of Utah has come up a few times, but I don't see it. They do have two 7-footers in starter Jakob Poeltl and reserve senior Dallin Bachynski. Poeltl plays 23 minutes a game and is about 25 pounds lighter than Okafor. Bachynski is closer in weight but only plays 12.5 minutes a game. From watching the Georgetown game, neither one was particularly good at stopping the behemoth that is Joshua Smith and all of his 350 pounds. Smith ended up with 6 points on 3-6 shooting and was pretty adept at getting positioning on Poeltl. Bachysnki's ability to sneak out to the three point line allowed him to really thrive in that game. He played more than Poeltl and was a major contributor with 9 points and 8 rebounds.

Okafor is going to be a load for either of those player to handle. He's bigger and quicker that Poeltl will be able to handle on his own in the post and much quicker than Bachynski. Okafor is a particularly bad matchup for Poeltl in that the Austrian freshman, while very efficient (69.1% FG percentage on the year) is mostly a low block player. He shoots free throws worse than Okafor, if you can believe it (45.1% on the season). Jahlil has struggled with help defense, but he's been pretty good at guarding his man straight up. During the second Carolina game, he really bottled up Kennedy Meeks and he caused a lot of problems for Rakeem Christmas in both Syracuse games.

Outside of the two 7 footers, freshmen Kyle Kuzma (6'9" 210) and Brekkott Chapman (6'8" 200) play less than 15 minutes each and don't appear to be low post bruisers. Chapman is more of a small forward and likes to step out for 3-point shots, hitting 19 out of 42 on the season. The Utes also have 6'7" sophomore Chris Reyes and 6'6" junior Jordan Loveridge. Loveridge is a 3-point shooter while Reyes does almost all of his damage inside the arc.

Those are the only regular starters that weigh more than 200 pounds. I mention that because, outside of Poeltl and Reyes, most of these guys are shooters. I don't see them beating up Okafor and Winslow on the low blocks. They have more players 6'6"-6'9" than does Duke, but it's not like the frontcourt players for Duke haven't been able to handle that.

On the perimeter, Delon Wright (6'5") is a good deal taller than Quinn Cook but seems to prefer driving to shooting. He's an ok 3 point shooter at 36.1% on the season but excels at getting to the line where he in 151 out of 181. He's taken one fewer free throw on the year than Jahlil. Given Cook's success at guarding Marcus Paige and Jerian Grant (in the second two games), I feel somewhat comfortable with this matchup. The off guard for Utah is 5'10" Brandon Taylor. Tyus Jones will likely be matchup up on him. Jones really struggled to score over the length of San Diego State. If Taylor is guarding Jones, I can see him playing very well in this game. Taylor is primarily a 3-point shooter, where he has taken 180 of his 262 (68.7%) of his shots on the year. He's very good out there (43.9%), so that makes sense. Tyus will have to use his height advantage to prevent open looks. The other guard that gets a lot playing time is 6'5" 195 pound junior Dakarai Tucker. Tucker is another 3-point shooter, although not nearly as accurate as Taylor or Loveridge.

I don't see them being able to handle Okafor or Winslow on the low blocks. Their bigs are either too young or too slight of frame. If anything, the ability of our guards to close out on their shooters and prevent Delong Wright from getting too much dribble penetration will determine the outcome of the game. If we can stop Loveridge and Taylor from shooting 40% from deep, we will be in a really good position.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think Amile's shrinking role has less to do with what he is or isn't doing and more to do with Justise's seizing of the 4 position. K absolutely loves the mismatch that Winslow represents for opposing 4s. Matt Jones is a better perimeter defender than Amile and can guard opposing 3s. I think that's the whole story. Amile is a fantastic rebounder, especially on offense, so I think we lose that when he doesn't play, but K spent a huge chunk of yesterday's on-court post-game interview with Tracy Wolfson praising Justise's defensive rebounding.

My gut tells me we'll need Amile in a big way at some point, and I think he's veteran and mature enough to understand that, but the Rasheed dismissal shook up the roster in a way that promoted Jones and shrunk Amile due to Justise's continued emergence.

Yeah, I think you're right. It's important to note that Amile's bread-and-butter (defense, offensive rebounding, easy baskets around the rim) can be done by Winslow more effectively. Also, Winslow just brings more to the table on offense from A to Z. This isn't to say that Amile is not an important member; he is, but he's just not as versatile as Justise.

Also, Amile just never looks for his own shot in the half court. He still does the "someone-passed-me-the-ball-at-the-top-of-the-key-and-I-want-to-get-rid-of-it-as-soon-as-possible" move which doesn't add much value on offense.

[Kedsy]

I don't see them being able to handle Okafor or Winslow on the low blocks. Their bigs are either too young or too slight of frame. If anything, the ability of our guards to close out on their shooters and prevent Delong Wright from getting too much dribble penetration will determine the outcome of the game. If we can stop Loveridge and Taylor from shooting 40% from deep, we will be in a really good position.

Utah's biggest size advantage appears to be at the 2 and 3 (assuming Justise starts at PF). And they'll have a height advantage at the 5 and also at the 4, again assuming Justise plays primarily PF. I'm not saying they have matchup advantages at all these positions, but there does appear to be a size advantage for Utah.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Utah's biggest size advantage appears to be at the 2 and 3 (assuming Justise starts at PF). And they'll have a height advantage at the 5 and also at the 4, again assuming Justise plays primarily PF. I'm not saying they have matchup advantages at all these positions, but there does appear to be a size advantage for Utah.

I see size being an advantage against us at the 1-3 (Tyus really did struggle against the length of SDSU), but does size matter against our 4 or 5 (Okafor and Justise)? Okafor can really only be stopped with well-run double and triple teams (Wake Forest, North Carolina), not necessarily size in a 1-on-1. And Justise has too many tools to negate either size or speed (the closest that Justise has faced with both size and speed is, again, North Carolina).

Not disagreeing with you at all about Utah's front court size, just wondering if size is even that much of a variable about our front court.

[Kedsy]

Not disagreeing with you at all about Utah's front court size, just wondering if size is even that much of a variable about our front court.

Well, frontcourt size probably isn't much of an issue when Duke's on offense (though perimeter size could easily be an issue there). But when we're on defense, depending on the players, opposing frontcourt size could affect us (as well as size on the perimeter).

[Troublemaker]

Utah starts a non-shooting PF in Reyes, but he only ends up playing 15 min/gm.

Their predominant lineup is 4 guards/wings around a center, and that's the lineup that's scary.

When Utah goes to that smallball lineup, I definitely would consider trying Winslow on Wright. The main reason is because I don't trust Tyus to guard Brandon Taylor (even though he is the closest match size-wise), who is an exceptional shooter and has point skills, too. I would rather see Quinn on Taylor, Matt on Loveridge, and take my chances with Tyus on Dakarai Tucker, who "only" shoots 37% from three.

[Troublemaker]

Here are some highlights of Utah's game against Wichita St earlier this season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_5_FMkf2FM

It gives a taste of how good Brandon Taylor is. Unfortunately, this game isn't as simple as just denying Delon Wright the ball. Taylor is another PG on the floor, is very quick, and a great shooter.

The video also shows how Utah relentlessly uses ball screens. Their big men are very good rollers and finishers. Poetl is shooting 69% largely on his ability to finish pick-and-rolls.

Wichita St is defending these ball screens with hedges, so it'll be a little bit different against Duke because we ice instead of hedge. Wright and Taylor are going to have more freedom to drive the lane and attack Okafor, who needs to be a good rim protector like he was against SDSU.

[DukeDevil]

Before I post a new thread, anyone know of Duke bars to watch the game at in Chicago?

[NancyCarol]

I officially refuse to start worrying about this game until Wednesday afternoon. :)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Before I post a new thread, anyone know of Duke bars to watch the game at in Chicago?

Paging CDu.

[bedeviled]

The main reason is because I don't trust Tyus to guard Brandon Taylor (even though he is the closest match size-wise), who is an exceptional shooter and has point skills, too. I would rather see Quinn on TaylorI was starting to think I was crazy for being concerned about Taylor. I, too, would prefer Quinn on Taylor because I think Quinn is more comfortable extending his defense further out and denying the ball. Taylor exploits his chances (shots & feeds).
In the games I've seen, Utah's 3-pointers are more than just points, they shift/drive the energy of the game. Conversely, I think that, if Utah starts to feel pressure, their trusted weapon could lead to their dramatic collapse if they lose composure and start trying too hard to get back in the game.

On a related note, I think our key for the game is intensity and momentum management, which will be a step up from games we've played since UVA. To my mind, we are definitely the better team as long as we remain loose and aggressive. Yet, teams who had no business losing their games have lost in the tourney, and it was usually due to flatness or "non-slaught" periods.


Wright and Taylor are going to have more freedom to drive the lane and attack Okafor, who needs to be a good rim protector like he was against SDSU.I share this view, too. I still think the 3pt threat is of primary importance. To help neutralize the penetrating attack, I'm hoping that Winslow and Allen show the nation their recovery defense skills.

[DukeinDC]

Before I post a new thread, anyone know of Duke bars to watch the game at in Chicago?

I saw a game their at Stadium Bar (I think) in Lincoln Park when visiting. A good crew of supporters but very bland bar in my opinion.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Before I post a new thread, anyone know of Duke bars to watch the game at in Chicago?
Sedgwicks (and Brother Jimmys way back when but it's gone now).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sedgwicks (and Brother Jimmys way back when but it's gone now).

I was at Sedgwick's for the game against Robert Morris. I'll be there for the Utah game, too. I'm sure there will be a solid crowd. BTW, the chips and salsa + guac was surprisingly good.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Here are some highlights of Utah's game against Wichita St earlier this season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_5_FMkf2FM

It gives a taste of how good Brandon Taylor is. Unfortunately, this game isn't as simple as just denying Delon Wright the ball. Taylor is another PG on the floor, is very quick, and a great shooter.

The video also shows how Utah relentlessly uses ball screens. Their big men are very good rollers and finishers. Poetl is shooting 69% largely on his ability to finish pick-and-rolls.

Wichita St is defending these ball screens with hedges, so it'll be a little bit different against Duke because we ice instead of hedge. Wright and Taylor are going to have more freedom to drive the lane and attack Okafor, who needs to be a good rim protector like he was against SDSU.

Thanks for posting. I noticed Wichita State elected to stay on their man in pick and roll situations. I wonder if we elect to switch on screens. With a four guard lineup, most guys could switch to prevent he dribble penetration. It worked against Wisconsin!

[NashvilleDevil]

Thanks for posting. I noticed Wichita State elected to stay on their man in pick and roll situations. I wonder if we elect to switch on screens. With a four guard lineup, most guys could switch to prevent he dribble penetration. It worked against Wisconsin!

But don't you know that this is nothing compared to Wisconsin? Utah is in a class with the great teams like Robert Morris and SDSU.

[gumbomoop]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/story/_/id/12538993/reseeding-sweet-16-men-ncaa-tournament-field

IIRC, ESPN did this last year, too. I have seen Xavier only a few minutes, but am skeptical that they're better than the 5 teams listed below them.

I'm trying to focus on Utah, but keep thinking of what a great matchup Duke-Gonzaga would be. I've been high on the Zags since seeing them a couple of times late-season. I don't know whether I can stand doing the obviously logical thing: rooting for UCLA in the early game Friday.

[subzero02]

I see size being an advantage against us at the 1-3 (Tyus really did struggle against the length of SDSU), but does size matter against our 4 or 5 (Okafor and Justise)? Okafor can really only be stopped with well-run double and triple teams (Wake Forest, North Carolina), not necessarily size in a 1-on-1. And Justise has too many tools to negate either size or speed (the closest that Justise has faced with both size and speed is, again, North Carolina).

Not disagreeing with you at all about Utah's front court size, just wondering if size is even that much of a variable about our front court.

I think Tyus's shooting struggles were more so due to his shot being off than SDSU's length. He missed several open looks from the perimeter. That's not to say that SDSU's length didn't bother him at all... He had at least 2 floaters that weren't even close; one of which was an air ball that resulted in a shot clock violation. Hopefully he works on his floater this week in practice... Both he and Quinn will have a chance to score off of it versus Utah.

[coot]

Its the sweet sixteen and rightfully so Utah is probably a top 16 team, so game on. The size inside and good shooters will be a challenge. Duke will be up for the challenge and it'll prepare them for the elite 8, final four, and championship matchups that will bring more size/talent. This Duke team is a national champion caliber team, so game on! Now some posters are going cra cra worried because Utah is good, we'll they are...but Duke is better. I see a 10 point win for Duke in this one.

[ice-9]

People confident about this match-up are pointing out that Utah won't be able to stop us on offense. That's probably correct.

People worried about this match-up are pointing out that we may struggle to contain Utah's drives and 3-point shots. That's probably also correct.

This game will come down to how well we are able to defend as a team.

Coach K will get us ready, but I'm sure Utah's Coach K will also have a few wrinkles of his own.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

How's Derrick Williams doing these days? (Duke karma!)

He's probably still talking about his great game against Duke. The highlight of his basketball career, and one of the all-time great performances for a Duke opponent.

[Troublemaker]

In the games I've seen, Utah's 3-pointers are more than just points, they shift/drive the energy of the game.

Totally agree. And they have such a well-coordinated 3-pt attack, too. Both Wright and Taylor drive and then sometimes kind of just throw to spots, like a QB in football throwing to open spots instead of to a receiver and expecting the receiver to get there. Their shooters are not necessarily stationary but move to the open spot when their defender is distracted by penetration.

I think Utah 3-pters made will be the Key Stat of the game. Against RMU, I thought the Key Stat would be Duke turnovers and we only coughed it up 11 times. Against SDSU, I thought it would be defensive rebounding %, and Duke successfully rebounded 68% of SDSU's misses, stopping the Aztecs from getting the easy putbacks that they needed to keep pace.

Against Utah, we need to contain their 3-pt attack. But it's really an Okafor stat as much as it is a perimeter defender stat. If Jahlil can hold down the fort inside and successfully contest shots around the basket, then Duke will not have to over-commit to the inside and open up Utah's 3-pt game.

[NM Duke Fan]

Utah is indeed a top ten team with a very bright coach. If Duke plays similarly to their last game in terms of both defensive intensity and offensive efficiency, I like their chances against anybody. Get off to a great start, and for once this year don't have a several minute lapse in focus and intensity ... and the probabilities will be firmly in Duke's favor. It all of the preceding do not happen, it indeed will be quite a battle that could easily go either way.

[Troublemaker]

Thanks for posting. I noticed Wichita State elected to stay on their man in pick and roll situations. I wonder if we elect to switch on screens. With a four guard lineup, most guys could switch to prevent he dribble penetration. It worked against Wisconsin!

I think we may see the re-appearance of the extended matchup zone that we deployed against NCSU in the ACC quarters.

Especially at the start of the game when Utah is using two non-shooting bigs, the Utes' lineup will be similar to NCSU's with 3 very good perimeters and 2 bigs that can't shoot. Duke was able to swarm NCSU's three perimeter players on the outside using 4 defenders (including Justise), and NCSU was further confused by whether it was man or zone that they were seeing.

When Utah goes to smallball, that defense is dicier to use since it'll be 4 vs 4 on the perimeter instead of 4 vs 3. So we might have to go m2m at that point or maybe take our chances still with that zone since Utah is so proficient at pick-n-roll.

In any case, Jah will have to defend the rim. If we use an extended zone to take away the three, it will create gaps to drive that wouldn't exist using a regular zone. I agree with bedeviled that we want to take away their threes, though, whether we do it by m2m or by zone.

[NashvilleDevil]

I found it interesting that entering the tournament Utah had lost 4 of their last 7. I know everyone in the Sweet Sixteen is now 2-0 but it is not like Utah was playing lights out before the tournament started.

One more thing to bring up because I think it was mentioned several times in 2010 when Duke played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, sight lines for the shooters :cool:

[Ultrarunner]

Totally agree. And they have such a well-coordinated 3-pt attack, too. Both Wright and Taylor drive and then sometimes kind of just throw to spots, like a QB in football throwing to open spots instead of to a receiver and expecting the receiver to get there. Their shooters are not necessarily stationary but move to the open spot when their defender is distracted by penetration.

This I find interesting. If the shooters are going to spots on the floor, it means that a well-coached and dedicated defender can do so as well. I'm think Jones (Matt) and Winslow can make plays there, and possibly Grayson, too. This assumes that the tendency is to put the ball into the same zone consistently enough that a pattern can be teased out to exploit.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Thanks to all those contributing to the thread... you guys are providing some great insight into Utah's attack. I've only seen them play twice this year and share some of the thoughts already mentioned. Our guards have been shaky stopping dribble-drive penetration at times this year. However, I feel like they've been steadily improving for a month or so. Taylor looks fairly quick and crafty at getting into the lane with his dribble alive....we've got to slow this down because once he gets in there, he has way too many options (he can finish very well on his own, kick to either wing for open 3s, or hit the big white guy on the bounce pass down low). Keeping him out of the lane will clog their offense, so lets hope Quinn and Tyus are up for the challenge! I think a clogged Utah offense will look much like NC State's the last time we played them. They score mainly off of spacing, movement, and dribble penetration.

I haven't read much on here about Duke's Offense vs. Utah's D. What will be our points of emphasis/advantages when we have the rock? I'd like to see Jah continue to run the court hard, and force Utah's big guy to keep up. As we've seen all year, Duke's offensive success always boosts their defensive success.

[gwlaw99]

Here are some highlights of Utah's game against Wichita St earlier this season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_5_FMkf2FM

It gives a taste of how good Brandon Taylor is. Unfortunately, this game isn't as simple as just denying Delon Wright the ball. Taylor is another PG on the floor, is very quick, and a great shooter.

The video also shows how Utah relentlessly uses ball screens. Their big men are very good rollers and finishers. Poetl is shooting 69% largely on his ability to finish pick-and-rolls.

Wichita St is defending these ball screens with hedges, so it'll be a little bit different against Duke because we ice instead of hedge. Wright and Taylor are going to have more freedom to drive the lane and attack Okafor, who needs to be a good rim protector like he was against SDSU.


Their guards look good and they set up their three pointers in a similar way that we do. Although, I did not see much blow by speed. Their big man is not in the same league as Jah though. Shockers had no one close to his size either.

[Troublemaker]

FYI

Utah's starting center Poeltl is ranked #17 in Chad Ford's top 100. Delon Wright is #27. ESPN Insider link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/results/top100/_/year/2015

Draft Express has Poeltl going #14 in their 2015 mock. Wright goes at #29. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/

Poeltl is ranked high because he's a shotblocker and a very good pick-n-roll finisher. That fits in very nicely with the modern NBA game.

[Dev11]

Since it doesn't appear to be on the alumni website for hoops watch locations, where might a weary Duke fan watch the game Friday night in the Phoenix area?

[Karl Beem]

Since it doesn't appear to be on the alumni website for hoops watch locations, where might a weary Duke fan watch the game Friday night in the Phoenix area?

Try CBS.

[FerryFor50]

FYI

Utah's starting center Poeltl is ranked #17 in Chad Ford's top 100. Delon Wright is #27. ESPN Insider link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/results/top100/_/year/2015

Draft Express has Poeltl going #14 in their 2015 mock. Wright goes at #29. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/

Poeltl is ranked high because he's a shotblocker and a very good pick-n-roll finisher. That fits in very nicely with the modern NBA game.

And because he's 7'1" and not an immobile stiff.

Probably helps that he's from Europe, too. (Modern NBA teams love the Euro guys)

[Troublemaker]

Pre-tournament interviews (local): http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=209980957&DB_OEM_ID=4200

Gosh, I love watching the pressers these days. It just seems like the team, including the coaches, have a special chemistry this year. Every time I hear them talk about how tight-knit they are, my confidence in them rises a lot. I mean, it's weird, I just finished watching these videos and I think Duke's going to spank Utah now. (Whether that ends up being the case or not, these pressers are fun to watch.)

Lots of cool stuff throughout. Some previews of Utah, lots of talk about Duke's in-season move to go small, Matt discusses how Coach K has been different this season, and in Coach K's segment, he raves about the Okafor family and about Jeff Capel.

[ice-9]

Pre-tournament interviews (local): http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=209980957&DB_OEM_ID=4200

Gosh, I love watching the pressers these days. It just seems like the team, including the coaches, have a special chemistry this year. Every time I hear them talk about how tight-knit they are, my confidence in them rises a lot. I mean, it's weird, I just finished watching these videos and I think Duke's going to spank Utah now. (Whether that ends up being the case or not, these pressers are fun to watch.)

Lots of cool stuff throughout. Some previews of Utah, lots of talk about Duke's in-season move to go small, Matt discusses how Coach K has been different this season, and in Coach K's segment, he raves about the Okafor family and about Jeff Capel.

Is it just me, or has Coach K become remarkably more candid recently? Sharing personal and intimate details that he guarded before? Great press conference.

[gumbomoop]

Ticket sales not brisk for South region. Disappointing.

http://www.chron.com/sports/college/article/South-Regional-ticket-sales-reflect-limited-6156868.php

Open practice schedule for Thursday:

http://nrgpark.com/node/1634

[dukelifer]

Ticket sales not brisk for South region. Disappointing.

http://www.chron.com/sports/college/article/South-Regional-ticket-sales-reflect-limited-6156868.php

Open practice schedule for Thursday:

http://nrgpark.com/node/1634

3 teams from the West - one with a small national fan base - Zags- one with a team that no one thought would get there- UCLA - and one with a team with little bball success - Utah. Seems pretty reasonable. I say move the game to Raleigh or Cameron- I am sure a few folks would show up.

[SCMatt33]

Ticket sales not brisk for South region. Disappointing.

http://www.chron.com/sports/college/article/South-Regional-ticket-sales-reflect-limited-6156868.php

Open practice schedule for Thursday:

http://nrgpark.com/node/1634

I actually think 20000 tickets sold (according to the article) is pretty good for 72 hours prior to tip. Not only do you have the distance factor with no Texas teams in the region, you don't have Texas teams anywhere in the bracket meaning that locals probably aren't even interested in the tourney overall.

This is also something that had already been noticed from past seasons by the NCAA as domes are being limited to the Final Four only for the foreseeable future (sites have all been announced through 2018). A city like Philaldelphia, which has been limited to first/second round games since Duke won the East region there is 2001, is scheduled to host a regional next year. This trend will trickle down to first and second round hosts as well. Places like Boise, which used to host early games regularly (8 times in 27 years), hasn't hosted since 2009 due to trends toward NBA (or near NBA) sized arenas, but will host in 2018. Other cities with smaller venues scheduled to host include Providence (Hasn't hosted since 2010) and Wichta (hasn't hosted since 1994).

Hopefully, there will be some respectable crowds on game day.

[brevity]

Ticket sales not brisk for South region. Disappointing.

http://www.chron.com/sports/college/article/South-Regional-ticket-sales-reflect-limited-6156868.php


3 teams from the West - one with a small national fan base - Zags- one with a team that no one thought would get there- UCLA - and one with a team with little bball success - Utah. Seems pretty reasonable.


I actually think 20000 tickets sold (according to the article) is pretty good for 72 hours prior to tip. Not only do you have the distance factor with no Texas teams in the region, you don't have Texas teams anywhere in the bracket meaning that locals probably aren't even interested in the tourney overall.


This is yet another example of the Selection Committee's incompetence. They should know that Houston locals prefer pro sports, and instead taken advantage of the city's proximity to Big 12 country. There was nothing so sacred about their process that could have prevented them from putting 3 seed Oklahoma in the South and sending 3 seed Iowa State to the East. Or, for that matter, swapping 5 seeds Arkansas and Utah. Or 9 seeds LSU and St. John's. Or 11 seeds Texas and UCLA.

Seriously, I want to know how these people are even allowed to breathe, much less have any decision making power.

[Billy Dat]

More pre-game media stuff to set the stage:

Andy Katz and Seth Greenberg interview Larry Krystkowiak (and Tom Izzo)
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=12552139

WFAN NYC sports radio host Mike Francesca interviews Grant:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio/mike-francesa/
(look under the 3/24 posted interviews)

[Wander]

This is yet another example of the Selection Committee's incompetence. They should know that Houston locals prefer pro sports, and instead taken advantage of the city's proximity to Big 12 country. There was nothing so sacred about their process that could have prevented them from putting 3 seed Oklahoma in the South and sending 3 seed Iowa State to the East. Or, for that matter, swapping 5 seeds Arkansas and Utah. Or 9 seeds LSU and St. John's. Or 11 seeds Texas and UCLA.

Seriously, I want to know how these people are even allowed to breathe, much less have any decision making power.

I'm not sure why you think 9 seeds and 11 seeds deserve geography considerations for the Sweet 16, and as a Duke fan I'm pretty happy that we don't have to potentially play a "road game" in the Elite 8 (again).

[brevity]

I'm not sure why you think 9 seeds and 11 seeds deserve geography considerations for the Sweet 16, and as a Duke fan I'm pretty happy that we don't have to potentially play a "road game" in the Elite 8 (again).

11 seed Dayton got to stay in Ohio for 3 rounds, and I didn't mention the other 3 seed from the Big 12, Baylor.

But I'm posting because I made an error above. Despite the geographical sense in putting LSU in the South and St. John's in the East, that would mean a potential St. John's-Villanova game in the round of 32, which doesn't work. Apologies.

[NYBri]

Ready to Rock 'n' Roll this weekend. Watching this team has been such a joy and I will certainly miss them when the season's over, but let's take it all the way and celebrate this great team in every sense of the word.

[SCMatt33]

This is yet another example of the Selection Committee's incompetence. They should know that Houston locals prefer pro sports, and instead taken advantage of the city's proximity to Big 12 country. There was nothing so sacred about their process that could have prevented them from putting 3 seed Oklahoma in the South and sending 3 seed Iowa State to the East. Or, for that matter, swapping 5 seeds Arkansas and Utah. Or 9 seeds LSU and St. John's. Or 11 seeds Texas and UCLA.

Seriously, I want to know how these people are even allowed to breathe, much less have any decision making power.

So you already addressed the Big East issue, but there are others issues in those swaps as well. The biggest one is that Utah could not be placed in the west, as they were the second team in from the PAC-12 and the top 3 teams from a conference must be placed in separate regions. Arizona was already out west, so this swap couldn't happen. There's nothing by rule preventing the Big XII 3 seed swap, but Iowa State was ranked the highest by the committee, so they got the best available region (Midwest was already taken by Kansas). They also would have swapped Texas and UCLA because of a potential round of 32 matchup with Iowa State.

[LouisianaFan]

My daughter and I will be attending the games in Houston this weekend. Does anyone know which hotel the team will be staying at?

[Billy Dat]

Pre-tournament interviews (local): http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=209980957&DB_OEM_ID=4200

Gosh, I love watching the pressers these days. It just seems like the team, including the coaches, have a special chemistry this year. Every time I hear them talk about how tight-knit they are, my confidence in them rises a lot. I mean, it's weird, I just finished watching these videos and I think Duke's going to spank Utah now. (Whether that ends up being the case or not, these pressers are fun to watch.)

Lots of cool stuff throughout. Some previews of Utah, lots of talk about Duke's in-season move to go small, Matt discusses how Coach K has been different this season, and in Coach K's segment, he raves about the Okafor family and about Jeff Capel.

Thanks for the link, I just watched the K segment. Here are some interesting takeaways:

-First off, K had just taped interviews for his "Basketball & Beyond" Sirius show with Steve Alford and Gregg Marshall. Very interesting reminder that (A) K is industrious enough that during the key part of the season, he still finds time to record his show and (B) he would interview a coach that he might be facing in less than one week's time.

-Per the comments about Jah's family, K says that Jah's father, Chuk, and his Uncle, Emeka, should have their own reality show. He also alludes to the Okafor/Winslow/T.Jones recruiting dinner at his house as the best recruiting dinner ever, that the families were already great friends and they laughed and laughed into the night. I have also heard Capel reference this visit - if we win the title, maybe there should be a 30 for 30 short about it.

-A side note, the talk about families reminds me how fun it is that the Scheyers continue to go on the road during the tournament. I wonder if any other assistant coach's in D1 get so much support from their parents. I am guessing they are just hoop crazy, they obviously have the financial means to do it, and Jon can give them amazing seats. #winning

-In Coach's extended comments about Capel, he points out that Capel is really the guy who built the modern VCU powerhouse that Shaka Smart took to real national prominence. I never really thought about his role in building that foundation. He also went on and on about how Capel is the coach most plugged into the young player mindset and lauded his people skills. He said that he always planned on Capel coming to Duke - that he "farmed Collins out to Amaker at Seton Hall for a few years" to keep the seat open but then VCU made him the head coach. He got in a shot at Oklahoma saying that Jeff was great there but that OU "didn't show him the same commitment that people who hired me have shown me over the years"

[3rd Dukie]

All-time series against Utah: 2-1. Our last game was a loss in the NIT in Bucky Waters's first season. Our last win was in the consolation game of the Final Four at Cole Field House in 1966.

(I would also like to report that Bob Verga with 15 points had recovered nicely from his illness that curtailed his performance against Kentucky the night before. Timing is everything.)

I was at that game, Sage. As I recall, Bubas iced a seldom-used senior named Hugo Black on the free throw line very late in the game.
They also had Chambers, but I can never remember if it was Jerry or Ron.

[bedeviled]

I haven't read much on here about Duke's Offense vs. Utah's D. What will be our points of emphasis/advantages when we have the rock?I was hoping someone smarter than me would respond, but I haven't seen any replies. So, here's my guess (I've only seen Utah a handful of times and wasn't thinking about a Duke matchup). My first thought was that we haven't talked about this side of the court because there's not much to say: Duke will continue to play its same offense. But, there will be some interesting things to see.

ESPN lists Utah as top-7 in the nation (major conferences only) at preventing points in the paint. Meanwhile, ESPN game notes from SDSU state "Duke outscored San Diego State 44-28 in the paint Sunday, its 18th game this season with at least 40 paint points, three more than any other major conference team." Indeed, the ESPN game notes all season have mentioned Duke giving teams their season worst pts-in-paint defensive performances. Something has to give, and, all season, that something has been the defense of the other team.

Related side note: as Troublemaker mentions, Utah could get opportunities for drives. They may have some easy inside looks if we are intent on shutting down the 3-ball. I'm preparing myself to not stress out too much about "matador defense." If we are trading baskets but shutting down their outside shooting and managing the game momentum, we should win a battle of point production.
Also note, I've left Utah turnovers out of this post on Duke's offense because I don't have a guess on that topic.

So, how will they try to prevent the game from being all about offense? They preominantly play man-to-man D. And, they are a very active team, including on defense. I'm very curious how they'll defend Jah. If they have pride in their past results, they could believe that they can shut down Jah in single coverage à la Notre Dame. However, I think Notre Dame had better horses to ride in an battle of offenses - Utah personnel being just a level lower across the board. And, if Jah plays strong and smart (limits offensive fouls), he should get Poeltl in foul trouble. He is lauded on D, but, with Jah, this should not be our year to Fear the Peoltl. Whether they start off in strong help / double team or go to it later, we have to make them respect our inside game to open up the rest of our offense.

Like always, Duke has to punish the opponent for doubling or helping on Jah. Justice at the 4 is again our money lineup due to spacing and cutting, and we shouldn't need Amile's height to stop their offense. Yet, every game, I keep thinking there is opportunity for Amile to do something very special if he elevates his game. He doesn't have to step outside of his role. Against Utah, the opportunity is there to dominate the offensive glass. (Really letting my mind drift, this game could feel like home for a happy, energetic MP3).

This Grantland article (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/how-larry-krystkowiak-and-delon-wright-brought-utah-basketball-back-to-national-prominence/), notes a frequent Utah strategy against pick and rolls - switching.
“Pick-and-rolls are designed to get a guy an open shot, whether it’s a post rolling or a draw-and-kick after someone gets sucked in,” Krystkowiak says. “And Del used to say, ‘Mismatches [like the ones that come from switching] are not gonna beat us; open shots will.” Well, Utah, I guess you just have to pick your poison, and we'll deliver. To my eyes, Duke has decreased our use of big man screens in the tourney, but, if Utah is switching on screens, I would totally exploit the mismatches. Our firepower is outrageous, whether it's Okafor down low, Winslow/Tyus/Cook off the bounce, or multiple 3-pt threats.

Finally, that article also reports: Opponents facing Utah can never be sure what to expect on a given possession.
“We’ll try to ice a side pick-and-roll [force a ball handler to the sideline] from time to time. We’re playing with impacting the ball more and working on trapping it,” Krystkowiak says, “and some of it depends on what the other team is trying to do. We try to throw some curveballs at people.” Yikes! Here I was thinking, "Rick Majerus is not walking through that door." Quick research, though, reveals that a Majerus assistant is Utah's defensive guru (http://www.blocku.com/2015/1/9/7521195/utah-associate-head-coach-tommy-connor-to-usu), and he HAS pulled out the triangle and two!!

So, Duke will be Duke, but all bets are off on what wrinkles Utah will use in attempt to slow us down. Look for them to throw different looks. Thus, it's hard to guess whether or not those wrinkles will be effective in slowing our offensive juggernaut. It's up to us to recognize and exploit the mismatches and vulnerabilities. They will be most vulnerable if/when Poeltl accumulates fouls. My keyword for our offense is 'relentless.' I think that, if we can 1. turn this into a battle of offenses and 2. keep game pressure on them, we can produce more points than they can.

[The Gordog]

So, Duke will be Duke, but all bets are off on what wrinkles Utah will use in attempt to slow us down. Look for them to throw different looks. Thus, it's hard to guess whether or not those wrinkles will be effective in slowing our offensive juggernaut. It's up to us to recognize and exploit the mismatches and vulnerabilities. They will be most vulnerable if/when Poeltl accumulates fouls. My keyword for our offense is 'relentless.' I think that, if we can 1. turn this into a battle of offenses and 2. keep game pressure on them, we can produce many more points than they can.

Fixed it for you. If we can do both of those things.

[dukelion]

From one of the links on the front page.

“For myself, I’ve played against players better than them,” said Delon Wright. “Obviously, I think it’s a mind game. Don’t think about them being a storied program, they are just regular players like us, they just happen to go to a big-name school.”

[SCMatt33]

From one of the links on the front page.

“For myself, I’ve played against players better than them,” said Delon Wright. “Obviously, I think it’s a mind game. Don’t think about them being a storied program, they are just regular players like us, they just happen to go to a big-name school.”

Any more context for the quote? Wright's brother has been in the NBA for a long time and was high school teammates with Russell Westbrook, so it's quite likely he has played against guys better than anyone on Duke's roster. If he's talking about the PAC-12, that might be a different story.

[Postiez]

Any more context for the quote? Wright's brother has been in the NBA for a long time and was high school teammates with Russell Westbrook, so it's quite likely he has played against guys better than anyone on Duke's roster. If he's talking about the PAC-12, that might be a different story.

In the quote he did specify that it was for himself (I assume that means not the team).

[DallasDevil]

My daughter and I will be attending the games in Houston this weekend. Does anyone know which hotel the team will be staying at?

The e-mail I got from Duke after buying my tickets said that the official Duke hotel is Royal Sonesta.

Hopefully we'll have a strong contingent of Duke fans. I checked earlier today and it looks like Utah and UCLA did not quite sell their entire allotment, but all of the seats in the Duke and Gonzaga sections had been purchased. I understand the disappointment with ticket sales, but I have no complaints that there won't be 40,000 Baylor fans in the stadium like there were last time I was there.

As for the game, I've only seen Utah play about 5 times this year but they are legit. At least initially I expect Utah to roll the dice with Poeltl defending Okafor one-on-one. The Cook vs. Wright match-up will be important, but I think how Tyus and Justise play will determine the outcome. If they are on, we will win going away. If not, we could be in for a long night.

[terrih]

The e-mail I got from Duke after buying my tickets said that the official Duke hotel is Royal Sonesta.

Hopefully we'll have a strong contingent of Duke fans. I checked earlier today and it looks like Utah and UCLA did not quite sell their entire allotment, but all of the seats in the Duke and Gonzaga sections had been purchased. I understand the disappointment with ticket sales, but I have no complaints that there won't be 40,000 Baylor fans in the stadium like there were last time I was there.

As for the game, I've only seen Utah play about 5 times this year but they are legit. At least initially I expect Utah to roll the dice with Poeltl defending Okafor one-on-one. The Cook vs. Wright match-up will be important, but I think how Tyus and Justise play will determine the outcome. If they are on, we will win going away. If not, we could be in for a long night.

---
Any thought on which section is Utah and which is UCLA. I am considering going down for the games but couldn't get things together in time to buy through Duke office... Rather sit with UCLA.... for obvious reasons.

[duketaylor]

Duke has 62% chance to advance.

Very low, IMO. Thought it's be closer to 75%.

[rsvman]

Duke has 62% chance to advance.

Very low, IMO. Thought it's be closer to 75%.

I saw that, too. Any idea where they get those numbers? Do they computer simulate playing the game 1000 times or something? Is it a Monte Carlo estimation?

I thought it would maybe be around 70 percent, just off the top of my head. They say Gonzaga has an 85 percent chance of beating UCLA, by way of comparison.

[Wander]

I saw that, too. Any idea where they get those numbers? Do they computer simulate playing the game 1000 times or something? Is it a Monte Carlo estimation?

I thought it would maybe be around 70 percent, just off the top of my head. They say Gonzaga has an 85 percent chance of beating UCLA, by way of comparison.

The computers all love Utah compared to their seed. It says more about them than it does about us, I think.

[Kedsy]

The computers all love Utah compared to their seed. It says more about them than it does about us, I think.

I went back and looked for teams that Pomeroy's ratings suggested were underseeded by two or more places (like Utah -- Pomeroy's pre-tournament ranking of #8 suggests a 2-seed but they were given a 5, thus they're underseeded by three places). I found 28 such instances in the past six tournaments. For what it's worth, which I admit isn't much, such teams over the last six years have underperformed vs. seed exactly the same number of times as they've overperformed vs. seed (8 times underperformed, 8 times overperformed, 12 times exactly met seed expectation). So, like I said, it doesn't say much (especially since I haven't controlled for the opponents' seed vs. Pomeroy) but at the least it does seem to say that underseeded teams historically haven't done any better than you'd expect based on their seed.

For comparison's sake, I also looked at teams that Pomeroy's ratings suggest were overseeded by two or more places. I found only 12 such intances. Three overperformed, six underperformed, and three exactly met seed expectation.

[subzero02]

I watched a replay of the Georgetown game. Poeltl is good but lacks strength. His early scoring did keep the Utes from falling behind by 15+ during Georgetown's initial 3 point onslaught. Utah gives up offensive rebounds. I expect Justise to have a field day. They also like to use multiple defensive looks. Lots of trapping on the perimeter with Peoltl leaving Smith(georgetown's massive center) briefly at the beginning of the game... I don't expect to see this trap used often when Okafor is on the floor, perhaps they will use it when Plumlee is in. Georgetown came out hot in this game from 3 , hitting 5 or their first 6. If our 3's are falling against Utah, we still need to continue to attack the paint... Georgetown became lazy/ stagnant on offense because they began to settle for 3's and jumpers. The most important thing to remember about playing Utah is not to leave their shooters... No matter what. They are lethal from long range. I think we will have a significant advantage at the 4(Winslow) and 5(Okafor) in terms of both athleticism and skill.. I don't think they can run with us in transition. I expect us to play man primarily but I also believe K will change things up during the game. I don't think Poeltl can guard Okafor 1 on 1, there will be an early and aggressive double team when he is isolated on him. Utah's backup center, Bachynski, has a thicker frame than Poeltl but I doubt he can guard Okafor 1 on 1 either. Both Poeltl and Bachynski are fairly talented offensively, hopefully Okafor gets them in foul trouble and not vice versa. On several consecutive possessions in the final 10 minutes, Smith was able to score on Utah's interior or draw a foul. Georgetown didn't go to him as often as they should've in the final 5 minutes though( he also went to the bench due to fatigue during part of this stretch). If Smith had been in better condition I think Georgetown would've won this game.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I saw that, too. Any idea where they get those numbers? Do they computer simulate playing the game 1000 times or something? Is it a Monte Carlo estimation?

I thought it would maybe be around 70 percent, just off the top of my head. They say Gonzaga has an 85 percent chance of beating UCLA, by way of comparison.

As far as the comparison goes, UCLA was/is widely acknowledged as a team that probably shouldn't be in the tournament at all. Now, kudos to them for winning their first two games, but it doesn't mean they are the same caliber team as Utah.

I like Duke to win their 65% games 100% of the time.

[tbyers11]

I saw that, too. Any idea where they get those numbers? Do they computer simulate playing the game 1000 times or something? Is it a Monte Carlo estimation?

I thought it would maybe be around 70 percent, just off the top of my head. They say Gonzaga has an 85 percent chance of beating UCLA, by way of comparison.

ESPN uses their BPI rankings which are similar to KenPom and factor in margin of victory. These rankings love Utah, they consistently demolished the mediocre to bad teams that make up most of the Pac12. These rankings have also been low on Duke since the Miami game. Opening Vegas lines have been 2-3 points higher on Duke than KenPom has been in nearly every game.

KenPom only has Duke as 55% favorite by 1 point against Utah. The Vegas line of Duke by 5 or 5.5 would give a victory likelihood in the low 70s.

[OldPhiKap]

ESPN uses their BPI rankings which are similar to KenPom and factor in margin of victory. These rankings love Utah, they consistently demolished the mediocre to bad teams that make up most of the Pac12. These rankings have also been low on Duke since the Miami game. Opening Vegas lines have been 2-3 points higher on Duke than KenPom has been in nearly every game.

KenPom only has Duke as 55% favorite by 1 point against Utah. The Vegas line of Duke by 5 or 5.5 would give a victory likelihood in the low 70s.

Sounds like what you want this time of year -- two fairly evenly-matched teams, both playing for big rewards.

As Jahzilla, Tyus and Justise have all said -- this is why you come to Duke. Show time.

Let's Go Devils!

[dyedwab]

ESPN uses their BPI rankings which are similar to KenPom and factor in margin of victory. These rankings love Utah, they consistently demolished the mediocre to bad teams that make up most of the Pac12. These rankings have also been low on Duke since the Miami game. Opening Vegas lines have been 2-3 points higher on Duke than KenPom has been in nearly every game.

KenPom only has Duke as 55% favorite by 1 point against Utah. The Vegas line of Duke by 5 or 5.5 would give a victory likelihood in the low 70s.

Yeah, I was trying to figure out why Utah and Duke were rated so closely in KenPom and BPI when they had 1) Twice as many losses, and at least one much worse than any of ours (the others are comparable) and 2) Fewer wins, and none as good as our Wisconsin and UVA wins and 3) they didn't finish hot.

And basically, its because the systems have "bad wins," essentially games that we should have won by a lot more than we did against much weaker teams, and Utah has few of those. I actually though that was excellent news, because those games (we can name any cluster of them and know what we are talking about) feature long lapses in focus, intensity, and energy.

So, while Utah presents different strategic and tactical challenges, the fundamental issue in this game remains as it always has been - are we focused, intense, and energetic for 40 minutes. If we are, I like our chances.

[devildeac]

Concentrating on the Devil's food donut holes that one of the drug reps brought to the office today but still hoping the Badgers can gnaw/feast on some ram chops for dinner or a late snack tonight;).

[roywhite]

Just heard Jay Bilas on the Cowherd show.

"expects a close game; wouldn't be surprised if Utah wins"
talked about how Utah was good at having big men set ball screens; could draw Jahlil away from basket

Duke by double digits IMO

[devildeac]

Just heard Jay Bilas on the Cowherd show.

"expects a close game; wouldn't be surprised if Utah wins"
talked about how Utah was good at having big men set ball screens; could draw Jahlil away from basket

Duke by double digits IMO

Any complaints about the refs yet from Bilas:rolleyes:?

[kcarson]

I watched a replay of the Georgetown game. Poeltl is good but lacks strength. His early scoring did keep the Utes from falling behind by 15+ during Georgetown's initial 3 point onslaught. Utah gives up offensive rebounds. I expect Justise to have a field day. They also like to use multiple defensive looks. Lots of trapping on the perimeter with Peoltl leaving Smith(georgetown's massive center) briefly at the beginning of the game... I don't expect to see this trap used often when Okafor is on the floor, perhaps they will use it when Plumlee is in. Georgetown came out hot in this game from 3 , hitting 5 or their first 6. If our 3's are falling against Utah, we still need to continue to attack the paint... Georgetown became lazy/ stagnant on offense because they began to settle for 3's and jumpers. The most important thing to remember about playing Utah is not to leave their shooters... No matter what. They are lethal from long range. I think we will have a significant advantage at the 4(Winslow) and 5(Okafor) in terms of both athleticism and skill.. I don't think they can run with us in transition. I expect us to play man primarily but I also believe K will change things up during the game. I don't think Poeltl can guard Okafor 1 on 1, there will be an early and aggressive double team when he is isolated on him. Utah's backup center, Bachynski, has a thicker frame than Poeltl but I doubt he can guard Okafor 1 on 1 either. Both Poeltl and Bachynski are fairly talented offensively, hopefully Okafor gets them in foul trouble and not vice versa. On several consecutive possessions in the final 10 minutes, Smith was able to score on Utah's interior or draw a foul. Georgetown didn't go to him as often as they should've in the final 5 minutes though( he also went to the bench due to fatigue during part of this stretch). If Smith had been in better condition I think Georgetown would've won this game.


Where did you watch this replay of the Utah-Georgetown game? Did you record it or is it somewhere online where the rest of us can watch?

[budwom]

[QUOTE=Mountain_Devil_91_92_01_10;793620]As far as the comparison goes, UCLA was/is widely acknowledged as a team that probably shouldn't be in the tournament at all. Now, kudos to them for winning their first two games, but it doesn't mean they are the same caliber team as Utah.

Well, UCLA beat Utah (at UCLA) by ten points, so I don't think you can say they aren't the same caliber team...

[Skitzle]

[QUOTE=Mountain_Devil_91_92_01_10;793620]As far as the comparison goes, UCLA was/is widely acknowledged as a team that probably shouldn't be in the tournament at all. Now, kudos to them for winning their first two games, but it doesn't mean they are the same caliber team as Utah.

Well, UCLA beat Utah (at UCLA) by ten points, so I don't think you can say they aren't the same caliber team...

And Miami beat duke by 16 points AT DUKE... They're in the NIT. For whatever that is worth

[kcarson]

[QUOTE=budwom;793661]

And Miami beat duke by 16 points AT DUKE... They're in the NIT. For whatever that is worth


It's not worth much at all, and that's probably the point you're making. Duke and Miami now are completely different than they were during that game. I'm sure UCLA and Utah are the same way. People use these references too much, and they can be helpful to an extent, but not in determining if we should win or not.

[jacone21]

Where did you watch this replay of the Utah-Georgetown game? Did you record it or is it somewhere online where the rest of us can watch?

Go to http://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live. Click the correct round and date and you should be able to see the replay. I think the site requires flash... maybe a PC. I haven't tried it on mobile.

[Wander]

I went back and looked for teams that Pomeroy's ratings suggested were underseeded by two or more places (like Utah -- Pomeroy's pre-tournament ranking of #8 suggests a 2-seed but they were given a 5, thus they're underseeded by three places). I found 28 such instances in the past six tournaments. For what it's worth, which I admit isn't much, such teams over the last six years have underperformed vs. seed exactly the same number of times as they've overperformed vs. seed (8 times underperformed, 8 times overperformed, 12 times exactly met seed expectation). So, like I said, it doesn't say much (especially since I haven't controlled for the opponents' seed vs. Pomeroy) but at the least it does seem to say that underseeded teams historically haven't done any better than you'd expect based on their seed.

For comparison's sake, I also looked at teams that Pomeroy's ratings suggest were overseeded by two or more places. I found only 12 such intances. Three overperformed, six underperformed, and three exactly met seed expectation.

Thanks, that sounds about right. Utah is good, but for all the hype they (deservedly) got over the year, they actually didn't even finish 2nd in the Pac-12, losing the tiebreaker to Oregon.

Like dyedwab said, Utah got their high computer numbers by steamrolling bad-to-mediocre teams. Whether beating a team by 30 is that much better than beating a team by 20 and how much that should compare to big wins is, of course, a debate that's not going to be settled here.

[jmck214]

Not that I am looking ahead but does anybody know if we will get the 2:00 game on sunday or 4:30? I am assuming 4:30 since that's what we got last time in Houston and because Houston is an hour behind Syracuse but it doesn't appear that times have been disclosed

[NSDukeFan]

I like Duke to win their 65% games 100% of the time.

Too soon.

[subzero02]

Where did you watch this replay of the Utah-Georgetown game? Did you record it or is it somewhere online where the rest of us can watch?

All NCAA games are available for replay through cbssports.com.

[rsvman]

Too soon.

I read Mountain Devil's post as a pop culture reference to the mythical Sex Panther cologne from the movie Anchorman. I don't think it was in any way taunting the Weaufx Gods.

[BlueHeaven]

Not that I am looking ahead but does anybody know if we will get the 2:00 game on sunday or 4:30? I am assuming 4:30 since that's what we got last time in Houston and because Houston is an hour behind Syracuse but it doesn't appear that times have been disclosed

Now I have to dig out the lucky t-shirt AND the stuffed blue devil.

[tbyers11]

Sounds like what you want this time of year -- two fairly evenly-matched teams, both playing for big rewards.

As Jahzilla, Tyus and Justise have all said -- this is why you come to Duke. Show time.

Let's Go Devils!

Agreed. Utah is a darned good team. I think they are even a bit underseeded. I don't think putting them at the bottom of the 3 seeds or the top of the 4 seeds would have been out of place. However, I do think that Pomeroy and BPI both overrate Utah a bit and underrate Duke a bit. The Vegas line (Duke by 5) seems more in line with my perception than the Pomeroy estimation (Duke by 1).

[FerryFor50]

Agreed. Utah is a darned good team. I think they are even a bit underseeded. I don't think putting them at the bottom of the 3 seeds or the top of the 4 seeds would have been out of place. However, I do think that Pomeroy and BPI both overrate Utah a bit and underrate Duke a bit. The Vegas line (Duke by 5) seems more in line with my perception than the Pomeroy estimation (Duke by 1).

(Over)rated + (under)rated = Rated?

[subzero02]

(Over)rated + (under)rated = Rated?

(Over)rated + (under)rated = rated(Over + under)

[flyingdutchdevil]

(Over)rated + (under)rated = rated(Over + under)

I love Duke.

[jacone21]

(Over)rated + (under)rated = rated(Over + under)

Distributive property ftw!

[OldPhiKap]

(Over)rated + (under)rated = rated(Over + under)

So I guess that rated = (rated(Over + Under) - (under)rated) / (Over)

[grounds0405]

Associativity and commutativity

[KandG]

I feel like these four or five minute leaves of absence is just something this team does, and as long as they don't get much longer, I'm willing to accept.

A lot of reference in this thread to these bouts of lost focus that are characteristic of a young team. As others have noted, if they're brief lulls, well that's basketball and runs from both teams are going to happen. If the dry spells are longer and more arid, that's a bigger problem. I looked at the last part of the season and the nature of the "blackouts" this team tends to experience.

Sometimes Duke just overwhelms the opponent from the start (Wake at home, NC State in the ACC tournament) and never really loses focus. Sometimes, we get off to huge leads and survive a brief four to five minute dip where a huge lead is cut to 10 points or so (home vs Clemson, first tournament game vs Robert Morris). The most problematic recent blackouts this Duke team has experienced:

Up 22-13 at VA Tech, outscored 34-18 over 14 minute stretch spanning 1st and 2nd halves.
Up 53-44 vs UNC at home, outscored 33-14 over 14 and half minute stretch in 2nd half.
Up 18-8 vs UNC at Dean Dome, then outscored 22-6 in next 12 minutes.
Down 6-5 vs Notre Dame in ACC tournament, outscored 27-12 over next 12 minutes.
Up 35-17 vs SDSU, outscored 20-9 over next 14 minutes spanning 1st and 2nd halves.

Broadly speaking, the pattern in these blackouts is we're getting a point (or less) per minute while the other team is getting double that (or more). In the worst cases, we've allowed the other team to score at the rate of a 40+ point half for over 10 minutes. As others have said, this is going to be pretty tough to survive against the more quality opposition we're going to be facing the rest of the tournament, starting with Utah.

The good news is that we're a better, smarter, and (presumably) more humbled team since the ACC tournament loss and our worst lapses (even in our wins), especially with Okafor being healthy and defending in a more committed manner. I'm still worried about the Utes, but am glad that the team that's going out there tomorrow night is more ready for the challenge than it ever has been.

[David Bunkley]

Hopefully we can maintain our defensive intensity and pull out a win against a tough and talented Utah team.

#GODUKE

[NYBri]

Why isn't this thread at the top of the list? It should be so now it is again.

GO DUKE!

[FerryFor50]

So I guess that rated = (rated(Over + Under) - (under)rated) / (Over)

I put the parentheses in for fun, but I'm glad it turned into a math exercise.

[Giles95]

Anyone have a suggestion on a good place to watch the Utah match-up in our nation's capital? Down here on business and decided to stay through the weekend. The regional hoops watch page at dukealumni.com unfortunately doesn't list a Washington, DC venue for tonight's game.

[Ballboy1998]

Anyone have a suggestion on a good place to watch the Utah match-up in our nation's capital? Down here on business and decided to stay through the weekend. The regional hoops watch page at dukealumni.com unfortunately doesn't list a Washington, DC venue for tonight's game.

Laughing Man Tavern has been the location for all of the organized watch parties the last couple years. For some reason they didn't set up any "official" ones for the tourney so far, but I suspect there will be lots of Duke fans watching downstairs there, and they should have the game sound on.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Anyone have a suggestion on a good place to watch the Utah match-up in our nation's capital? Down here on business and decided to stay through the weekend. The regional hoops watch page at dukealumni.com unfortunately doesn't list a Washington, DC venue for tonight's game.

It may not still be relevant, but Buffalo Billiards is the place to be. Very rowdy crowd. Game watching for the Young Alumni Development committee.

Crappy bar, but cheap beer and lots of TVs.

[yancem]

It may not still be relevant, but Buffalo Billiards is the place to be. Very rowdy crowd. Game watching for the Young Alumni Development committee.

Crappy bar, but cheap beer and lots of TVs.

Ah, Buffalo Billiards, I haven't been there in years! They do have several TV's and usually some decent beer specials.

[Tripping William]

I'm hearing a lot of buzz from friends in Salt Lake City about this strategy. I predict we'll see it, in earnest, for the first time all year. I hope Jah will keep his cool and make his free throws.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I'm hearing a lot of buzz from friends in Salt Lake City about this strategy. I predict we'll see it, in earnest, for the first time all year. I hope Jah will keep his cool and make his free throws.

Let them put us in the double bonus early... We have other players who can get fouled also.

[FerryFor50]

I'm hearing a lot of buzz from friends in Salt Lake City about this strategy. I predict we'll see it, in earnest, for the first time all year. I hope Jah will keep his cool and make his free throws.

As long as it's Poeltl getting into foul trouble, go for it. ;)

[SkyBrickey]

Sorry if this already covered in the thread, but what are the chances Jacob Poetl can cover Jah 1-on-1? I missed Utah's games so I haven't seen him firsthand.

I know he's 7' but he gives up about 40 lbs. And Jah is moving really well right now.

I saw Jay Williams say "don't double", that plays into Duke's hands. Play him straight up. But after seeing Jah against SDSU, I'm really hopeful he can own this match-up and give us another 70%+ night from the field.

Love the way our team is playing. If we bring the focus and intensity tonight like we did the last two games, I don't see us losing, even though it sounds like Utah is a really solid club.

[COYS]

Let them put us in the double bonus early... We have other players who can get fouled also.

I agree with this. Hack-A-For could be really useful in a close game when either Duke is leading by a narrow margin or possibly trailing by a little bit bigger margin. With 2 minutes left, it makes sense to send Jahlil to the line being that Duke's average points per possession is well over 1 while Jahlil, at 50% on the year from the line, would be a better bet to score only 1 point per possession over a large number of possessions. This is useful if a team is trailing Duke and doesn't mind trading 1 point for 2 to or three while also extending the game OR possibly if Duke is trailing by a decent margin and trying to mount a comeback in the last few minutes (though this would be a big gamble). The problem is that the strategy really only makes sense in these specific instances. We wont see any of this strategy before Duke is in the bonus. And it's really only most effective in single-bonus situations. Honestly, this is why it's a hard strategy to employ.

I think it works better in the NBA where 5 fouls per quarter mean you can reset the bonus more frequently AND every team has guys that are 11th or 12th on the depth chart that can rack up fouls.

If Utah wants to foul Jahlil on every shot attempt, so be it. We'll get to the bonus faster, Utah's players will be managing foul trouble for the whole game, and Jahlil will probably have a few and-ones that make the initial foul pointless to begin with. That will also make it that much more likely that Quinn, Tyus and our other perimeter players get to the line more through the course of the game and that Utah's players will be in foul trouble.

I actually think a better strategy for Utah to employ would be "The refs won't dare to call all the fouls so I'm going to manhandle Jahlil every single time he touches the ball." It seems to me that when the NCAA tourney rolls around, there are a few games where it just seems like the refs, for whatever reason, allow a ridiculous amount of physical play. There are times (2010) when that works to Duke's advantage, so I guess I can't say it's always a bad thing. But I think this is a safer bet than a targeted hack-an-Oak strategy. Body him up. Bump him. Push him. Be super physical. If the refs put him on the line a few times, so be it, but don't give him anything easy.

If Utah goes with this plan and the refs call a loose game, Jahlil will have to rise to the challenge (and I think he will).

[Tripping William]

Let them put us in the double bonus early... We have other players who can get fouled also.

Amile Jefferson being one of them, and Justise Winslow being another (although my eye-test, non-stats-based takeaway is that Justise's free-throw shooting has improved somewhat late in the season).

But, yes, getting Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones to the line is Advantage Duke.

[Tripping William]

As long as it's Poeltl getting into foul trouble, go for it. ;)

Inclined to agree, but I'd bet the Hack-A-For instructions are somewhat less explicit for Poeltl and somewhat more specific for Bachynski and Kuzma.

[subzero02]

Sorry if this already covered in the thread, but what are the chances Jacob Poetl can cover Jah 1-on-1? I missed Utah's games so I haven't seen him firsthand.

I know he's 7' but he gives up about 40 lbs. And Jah is moving really well right now.

I saw Jay Williams say "don't double", that plays into Duke's hands. Play him straight up. But after seeing Jah against SDSU, I'm really hopeful he can own this match-up and give us another 70%+ night from the field.

Love the way our team is playing. If we bring the focus and intensity tonight like we did the last two games, I don't see us losing, even though it sounds like Utah is a really solid club.

If Utah guards Jahlil with Poeltl 1 on 1, I think he will score 20 points...in the first half. Bachinsky might be able to hold his own against Jahlil but I doubt it. Utah double teamed an out of shape Smith from Georgetown and he still scored on them or drew a foul when he had even moderate post position. I do think we will see hack-a-for tonight.

[Kedsy]

(although my eye-test, non-stats-based takeaway is that Justise's free-throw shooting has improved somewhat late in the season).

In our last 10 games, Justise has shot 14 for 23 from the line (60.9%). For the season, Justise has shot 61.2% from the line. Pretty much the same (i.e., no discernible improvement).

[Troublemaker]

Sorry if this already covered in the thread, but what are the chances Jacob Poetl can cover Jah 1-on-1? I missed Utah's games so I haven't seen him firsthand.

I know he's 7' but he gives up about 40 lbs. And Jah is moving really well right now.

I saw Jay Williams say "don't double", that plays into Duke's hands. Play him straight up. But after seeing Jah against SDSU, I'm really hopeful he can own this match-up and give us another 70%+ night from the field.

I'd be surprised if Poetl can handle Jahlil 1-on-1. In one of his interviews recently, Jah said that it doesn't really matter to him who's playing center on the opposing team; his plan is to dominate regardless. And I agree with Jah. He has the talent and the health right now (knock on wood) to win a 1-on-1 matchup against anyone. He also has played 34 college games at this point (missed Clemson) so he has a comfort with the physicality inside. Remember early in the season, Temple got physical with him and forced him to shoot away from contact and he ended up 7-for-20 for one of his few poor shooting games. Stanford did the same thing and caused him trouble, too. He's come a long way since then.

[Duke3517]

Duke needs to have an A+ effort tonight. I have a lot of respect for Utah. This is not your ordinary 5 seed. Really excited about the game tonight.

[NSDukeFan]

Sorry if this already covered in the thread, but what are the chances Jacob Poetl can cover Jah 1-on-1? I missed Utah's games so I haven't seen him firsthand.

I know he's 7' but he gives up about 40 lbs. And Jah is moving really well right now.

I saw Jay Williams say "don't double", that plays into Duke's hands. Play him straight up. But after seeing Jah against SDSU, I'm really hopeful he can own this match-up and give us another 70%+ night from the field.

Love the way our team is playing. If we bring the focus and intensity tonight like we did the last two games, I don't see us losing, even though it sounds like Utah is a really solid club.


I'd be surprised if Poetl can handle Jahlil 1-on-1. In one of his interviews recently, Jah said that it doesn't really matter to him who's playing center on the opposing team; his plan is to dominate regardless. And I agree with Jah. He has the talent and the health right now (knock on wood) to win a 1-on-1 matchup against anyone. He also has played 34 college games at this point (missed Clemson) so he has a comfort with the physicality inside. Remember early in the season, Temple got physical with him and forced him to shoot away from contact and he ended up 7-for-20 for one of his few poor shooting games. Stanford did the same thing and caused him trouble, too. He's come a long way since then.

I believe the centers who can cover Jahlil one on one include Deandre Jordan, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol and perhaps a few others. It would be interesting to see if Towns or Cauley-Stein could.

[Henderson]

I believe the centers who can cover Jahlil one on one include Deandre Jordan, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol and perhaps a few others. It would be interesting to see if Towns or Cauley-Stein could.

Well, the good Lord willing and creeks don't rise, we'll see that sooner than next year. But we need to play a tough game tonight to get there.

What's Duke's record against teams whose schools such as Utah that have the same number of letters in their names? We need analytics on this.

[blUDAYvil]

What's Duke's record against teams whose schools such as Utah that have the same number of letters in their names? We need analytics on this.

Our success this year against Army and Elon makes me feel better about this match-up.

[Tripping William]

[/B]


What's Duke's record against teams whose schools such as Utah that have the same number of letters in their names? We need analytics on this.


Our success this year against Army and Elon makes me feel better about this match-up.

Does Wake count?

[jacone21]

I'm starting to get a little tense this afternoon. It's gonna be a long wait until game time. Hope the guys are handling it better than I am.

Let's go, Devils!

[NashvilleDevil]

I'll do my part by not watching. When I did watch during the first two rounds Duke gave up the runs that got UNLV lite and SDSU back in it. I've followed the games on my phone and only turned it back on when there was no doubt Duke was going to win.

[elvis14]

I'm starting to get a little tense this afternoon. It's gonna be a long wait until game time. Hope the guys are handling it better than I am.

Let's go, Devils!

Nope sounds like I'm handling it like you are....I'm getting more tense as the day goes along. I'm actually trying to stay busy and not think about the game too much.

At this point in the tournament, I have some respect for all the teams left and even though we are favored I fully expect Utah to give us a tough game.

[Tripping William]

I'm starting to get a little tense this afternoon. It's gonna be a long wait until game time. Hope the guys are handling it better than I am.

Let's go, Devils!

At approximately 9:00 a.m. yesterday I told a friend that the wait had gotten to be torture. Thirty hours later, it's no better. I hope I don't spontaneously combust before tipoff.

[devildeac]

At approximately 9:00 a.m. yesterday I told a friend that the wait had gotten to be torture. Thirty hours later, it's no better. I hope I don't spontaneously combust before tipoff.

Might I suggest one (or two) of these:

4919

Looks like it should have just about everything you need: available nearby, cute dog, rainbow, pot of gold, moderate IBU, solid ABV;).

Oh, wait. Wrong thread.:p

[Tripping William]

Might I suggest one (or two) of these:

4919

Looks like it should have just about everything you need: available nearby, cute dog, rainbow, pot of gold, moderate IBU, solid ABV;).

Oh, wait. Wrong thread.:p

To quote the esteemed Colonel Sherman T. ("Hoops") Potter: "Now you're talkin' my language."

[NYBri]

I'm starting to get a little tense this afternoon. It's gonna be a long wait until game time. Hope the guys are handling it better than I am.

Let's go, Devils!

I'm definitely tempted to start the beer popping early to calm the nerves...or course, that has unintended (or intended) consequences.

I've got some Stone's IPA lined up. Might toss in a Corona, just to keep the taste buds honest.

Anyway, I am psyched and ready to go.

GO DUKE!

[ArtVandelay]

What was that word? Two what? Did you say Utes? What is a Ute?

Let's Go Duke!

[FerryFor50]

What was that word? Two what? Did you say Utes? What is a Ute?

Let's Go Duke!

4920

[Tripping William]

See http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men/d1/2015/03/27/utah-duke

I have not been able to locate, via the Google, when Duke previously played Utah in The Dance. Anyone know? And what about the circumstances of the other two meetings?

[DoubleDuke Dad]

What was that word? Two what? Did you say Utes? What is a Ute?

Let's Go Duke!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNZ1O2KTOOg

Good movie!

[geraldsneighbor]

See http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men/d1/2015/03/27/utah-duke

I have not been able to locate, via the Google, when Duke previously played Utah in The Dance. Anyone know? And what about the circumstances of the other two meetings?

This is Duke and Utah's 4th meeting, and first since 3/14/70 (Utah 78, Duke 75) in the 1970 NIT.

[sagegrouse]

I'd be surprised if Poetl can handle Jahlil 1-on-1. In one of his interviews recently, Jah said that it doesn't really matter to him who's playing center on the opposing team; his plan is to dominate regardless. And I agree with Jah. He has the talent and the health right now (knock on wood) to win a 1-on-1 matchup against anyone. He also has played 34 college games at this point (missed Clemson) so he has a comfort with the physicality inside. Remember early in the season, Temple got physical with him and forced him to shoot away from contact and he ended up 7-for-20 for one of his few poor shooting games. Stanford did the same thing and caused him trouble, too. He's come a long way since then.

Jahlil backs Poetl in and makes either a lay-up or a dunk, pretty much every time.

[Olympic Fan]

See http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men/d1/2015/03/27/utah-duke

I have not been able to locate, via the Google, when Duke previously played Utah in The Dance. Anyone know? And what about the circumstances of the other two meetings?

The first meeting, Dec. 29, 1959 was in the first round of the Dixie Classic in Raleigh's Reynolds Coliseum. Utah was ranked No. 6 nationally with All-American center Billy "The Hill" McGill. But Duke junior Doug Kistler would shut down McGill (7 points on 3-of-13 shooting) and Vic Bubas' first Duke team would prevail 63-52. Interesting factoid -- Bubas would use just five players in the game. All scored in double figures.

The second meeting came Mar. 19, 1966 in the NCAA Final Four consolation game in College Park, Md. It was the same night Texas Western famously beat Kentucky in the title game. Duke got 23 points from Jack Marin, 15 from Bob Verga (still recovering from a throat infection) and 14 from Mike Lewis (who was hurt late in the game) to offset 32 points by Jerry Chambers and give Duke the 79-77 win and third place in the 1966 NCAA Tournament.

The third (and last) meeting came Mar. 14, 1970 in the quarterfinals of the NIT in Madison Square Garden. Duke built a nice lead behind Randy Denton (who finished with 35 points and 15 rebounds), but in the last 10 minutes, Utah rallied behind Mike Newlin to steal the 78-75 victory.

[GGLC]

Jahlil backs Poetl in and makes either a lay-up or a dunk, pretty much every time.

Shouldn't tempt the weauxfgods like this, sage.

[gwlaw99]

I'm hearing a lot of buzz from friends in Salt Lake City about this strategy. I predict we'll see it, in earnest, for the first time all year. I hope Jah will keep his cool and make his free throws.

It may work at the end of the game, but I don't think they want to put duke in the bonus early considering how well our guards shoot free throws.

[SkyBrickey]

Duke is running InGame again for tonight's game and giving away $200 in gift cards and 3 vintage Duke calendars.

If you haven't tried the app yet, you should. Fun trivia and guess the action. My friend said 300+ Duke fans played last week.

Here's Duke's Facebook post promoting the app: https://www.facebook.com/DukeAthletics/photos/a.193791506193.130208.11129186193/10152788957426194/?type=1&theater

Go Duke! Let's come out focused and intense again tonight, guys!

[The Gordog]

Anyone have a suggestion on a good place to watch the Utah match-up in our nation's capital? Down here on business and decided to stay through the weekend. The regional hoops watch page at dukealumni.com unfortunately doesn't list a Washington, DC venue for tonight's game.


Laughing Man Tavern has been the location for all of the organized watch parties the last couple years. For some reason they didn't set up any "official" ones for the tourney so far, but I suspect there will be lots of Duke fans watching downstairs there, and they should have the game sound on.

My drinking buddy and I (both T'86) will be there tonight around 8:30. We are 2-0 in games watched from that venue. PM me if you want to meet up.

[Dukehky]

Let's get it.

[hurleyfor3]

This is Duke and Utah's 4th meeting, and first since 3/14/70 (Utah 78, Duke 75) in the 1970 NIT.

After 45 years it is clearly time for revenge.

[Tripping William]

After 45 years it is clearly time for revenge.

Except we gotta wait 3 more damn hours. Torture!

[gep]

It may work at the end of the game, but I don't think they want to put duke in the bonus early considering how well our guards shoot free throws.

I keep reading this... so then, how did Duke manage *only" 2 free throws in the SDSU game? Both made by Jah, of all players? :cool: Quinn, Tyus, etc not even a free throw attempt? Hope this never happens again.

[subzero02]

I think the main event should have the option to shoot around while the undercard is in the locker room for halftime ;-)... Screw the red panda...

[House G]

Everyone relax. I just insured a Duke "W" by betting on Utah.

[NYBri]

Hate the low camera angle in Houston. Hard to see the entire floor. It's what drove me crazy about games at Indiana for many years. They got smart and raise the camera so you could see the entire floor.

CIS has a high angle.