Kedsy
03-18-2015, 03:24 PM
Mark is not feeling well, so he asked me to come off the bench and write the next Phase post. I'm not sure if this Phase is just the first two NCAA tournament games or if we'll use the same thread and come back before each two-game "mini-tournament" (assuming Duke is still playing), but either way, here we go:
(1) Will Duke stay healthy?
Of course, health is always first in every Phase post, but this year, it's even more important than most. With only eight scholarship players, we won't be able to afford any injuries from here on in. If you add in that five our eight guys are recovering from sprained ankles, and Justise (shoulder, ribs) and Tyus (tailbone/back spasms) have both appeared to suffer injuries in the not-too-distant past, well then personally I'll be holding my breath every time a Duke player falls down or steps funny. Hopefully we can keep our health for the next three weeks.
(2) Is Duke's defense a fatal flaw?
According to Pomeroy, going into the Tournament, Duke's offense is the 3rd best in the nation, but its defense is #56. Questions have arisen as to whether a team with a sub-50 defense can succeed in the Big Dance.
Interestingly enough, going back to 2009 Duke is the first team to have a top 20 offense and sub-40 defense to claim a #1 seed (using pre-Tournament Pomeroy numbers). So there's no direct comparison, but there are some indirect comparisons we can draw.
First, looking at all teams with top 20 offenses and sub-40 defenses over the last six seasons, there have been 55 NCAA tournament teams that have met those requirements. Of those, 12 have exceeded their seed-expectations, 16 have failed to reach their seed-expectations, and 27 have gone exactly as far as their seed would have predicted. I've looked at eight subsets of this data, and put them into the following table:
Subset Exceeded SE Failed to reach SE Exactly met SE
--------------------------------- ------------ ------------------ ---------------
Top 20 off; sub-40 def 12 16 27
Top 10 off; sub-40 def 8 10 12
Top 10 off; sub-50 def 8 8 9
Top 5 off; sub-50 def 4 5 6
Top 20 off; sub-40 def, Top 4 seed 4 8 7
Top 10 off; sub-40 def, Top 4 seed 3 8 5
Top 10 off; sub-50 def, Top 4 seed 3 6 3
Top 5 off; sub-50 def, Top 4 seed 3 4 3
So, the closer we get to Duke's situation, the more it looks like it doesn't really matter. That said, here are the teams in the past six seasons who have most resembled Duke's 3/56 Pomeroy offense/defense split:
2010 Baylor (5/52), 3-seed, Elite 8 (exceeded seed-expectations);
2011 Notre Dame (3/62), 2-seed, second round (failed to meet seed-expectations);
2011 Wisconsin (2/63), 4-seed, Sweet 16 (met seed-expectation);
2012 Missouri (1/76), 2-seed, first round upset victim (failed to meet seed-expectation);
2012 Indiana (4/58), 4-seed, Sweet 16 (met seed-expectation);
2013 Michigan (2/58), 4-seed, Final 2 (exceeded seed-expectation);
2014 Wisconsin (5/59), 2-seed, Final 4 (exceeded seed-expectation);
2014 Kansas (6/45), 2-seed, second round (failed to meet seed-expectation).
And again it doesn't appear to matter, as three of the above exceeded seed-expections (two Final Fours and an Elite Eight), three failed to meet seed-expectations (a first round upset and two second-round upsets), and two met seed-expectations exactly. Duke's seed-expectation is a Final Four -- a pretty high bar -- so the good news is all of the above categories show at least an even chance of meeting or exceeding seed-expectation.
(3) What defense will Duke play?
For first time since the Earth's crust cooled, Coach K has employed zone defense on a regular basis this season. He's been mixing things up, sometimes showing his traditional man-to-man, sometimes a different man-to-man that looks suspiciously like a matchup zone, sometimes playing a 2-3 zone, and sometimes a 3-2, even on one occasion a 1-3-1, with a variety of full-court and three-quarter-court presses and traps thrown in. After Miami beat us at Cameron and the players and coaches all said afterward that they knew exactly what Duke would throw at them defensively and therefore could exploit it, I doubt many if any Duke opponents have felt that way after the game.
So what's important, picking the best defense to match the opponent, switching up various defenses in a single game, or is it simply the surprise? If opponents don't know what's coming it's that much harder to game plan. And total surprises on D have been featured in many of our big wins: Wisconsin (switching every screen instead of hedging or icing); Louisville (zone all game); Virginia (first sighting of our 3-2 zone); UNC (Quinn face-guarding Paige); and NC State in the ACC tournament (mix of three-quarter court pressure and a 1-3-1 zone).
I'm excited to see what new wrinkles Coach K might come up with in the upcoming games. Who knows, now that everyone is expecting zones, maybe he'll try 100% traditional Duke man-to-man for a game?
(4) How deep into the bench will Duke go?
We only have eight scholarship players, so we don't really have an "end of the bench" anymore. But still, the question remains how much will Marshall Plumlee and Grayson Allen play in the upcoming games? We might see them a reasonable amount in the first couple games, but traditionally Coach K tightens his rotation significantly as the Tournament progresses. In the Championship game in 2010, only five Duke players played double-figure minutes. Marshall and Grayson have been playing well of late, but my guess is this year we'll have at least six double-figure minute guys in every game, but absent injury or foul trouble, it won't be more than that.
(5) How much will Duke's youth/inexperience matter?
Duke is a very young team, but even younger when it comes to NCAA tournament experience. Only four of our players have ever played in an NCAA game, and two of those (Matt and Marshall) have combined for 8 minutes of garbage time. Amile Jefferson has played in four tournament games, but in only two did he play double-figure minutes. So on our entire roster, only Quinn Cook has actually been battle-tested in the NCAA Tournament.
Does it matter? Who knows? Last year's Kentucky team made the Final game featuring a roster that combined for a total of zero (0) minutes of NCAA tournament experience. So it clearly didn't matter to them. But it's certainly worth watching to see how Duke's young players react to the Big Pressure Cooker.
(6) Will Duke bring the intensity every game?
There's a little bit of Jekyll and Hyde in this year's Duke squad. Perhaps because of our youth, our team seems to rise to the occasion in the big games and appears sometimes to sleepwalk when faced with a perceived inferior opponent. Not only that, but Duke often seems to come out flat in the game immediately following our best efforts. Consider our worst performances of the season:
-- First NC State game (loss): came after starting the season 14-0;
-- Miami game (loss): after NC State game; only game that doesn't match the pattern (though I think we may have coasted because the players at that time believed it was impossible for them to lose in Cameron);
-- First Notre Dame game (loss): game immediately after the exhilarating comeback win over St. John's for Coach K's 1000th win;
-- Third Notre Dame game (loss): game immediately after we crushed NC State the night before (and also remembering our blowout of Notre Dame in game #2);
-- Virginia Tech game (OT win): game immediately following our beatdown of Clemson without Jahlil;
-- Florida State game (3 point win): game immediately following epic smashing of Notre Dame in rematch;
-- Elon (13 point win over terrible team): next game after big win at Wisconsin;
-- Georgia Tech (6 point win at CIS): game immediately following big win at Virginia.
So in every game except Miami, we had a letdown after a big win. Perhaps the players get a little full of themselves and forget to bring the effort? Perhaps they underestimate how hard the opponent will play to beat Duke? Whatever the reason, this aspect of the team is what frightens me most looking forward. If we manage to get to the Elite Eight, I'm not too worried about a letdown there or beyond, but in the 2nd and 3rd round I really hope Coach K figures out how to deal with this. Maybe even the first round, but I'm not really stressing about that, coming after the loss to Notre Dame.
(7) How well do our prospective opponents match up with Duke?
In the first round game, we'll either play North Florida or Robert Morris. We can only hope Duke doesn't become the first 1-seed ever to lose to a 16-seed, but if we bring our intensity, we should be safe.
Using pre-Tournament Pomeroy, North Florida is #127 in the country, with the 98th best offense and the 178th best defense. They play at a reasonably fast tempo (60th in the nation, while Duke is 103rd). They profile as similar in talent to Wake Forest or Boston College, so we should win but the Ospreys may not be a pushover.
Robert Morris is ranked #173 in pre-T Pomeroy, with the 191st ranked offense and 169th ranked defense. Their tempo is ranked 131st. They profile as similar in talent to Virginia Tech, who of course took Duke to overtime.
If we win our first game, we'll play either San Diego State or St. John's in our second game.
San Diego State is a tough team, ranked #27 in pre-T Pomeroy, with the 161st ranked offense and the 4th (!) ranked defense. They play at a glacial tempo, 334th in the nation. This is a pretty difficult matchup for an 8-seed, but I think it's a decent one for Duke. Our offense is so strong that we've still managed to score against top six defenses like Virginia and Louisville; our troubles generally happen when we can't get stops on defense. In fact, all our losses came to teams with offenses ranked much better than their defenses, so I'm much happier to face an offensively-challenged team with a great defense than I would be to face an average defensive team with great offense.
St. John's would be a rematch game, and so far we've played great in second games against teams this season. They would also be playing without suspended
center Chris Obekpa, who started and played 36 minutes against Duke on January 25. The Red Storm is ranked #42 in pre-T Pomeroy, with the 62nd ranked offense and the 51st ranked defense, and play quick, the 61st ranked tempo in the land.
(8) LET'S GO DUKE!!!
(1) Will Duke stay healthy?
Of course, health is always first in every Phase post, but this year, it's even more important than most. With only eight scholarship players, we won't be able to afford any injuries from here on in. If you add in that five our eight guys are recovering from sprained ankles, and Justise (shoulder, ribs) and Tyus (tailbone/back spasms) have both appeared to suffer injuries in the not-too-distant past, well then personally I'll be holding my breath every time a Duke player falls down or steps funny. Hopefully we can keep our health for the next three weeks.
(2) Is Duke's defense a fatal flaw?
According to Pomeroy, going into the Tournament, Duke's offense is the 3rd best in the nation, but its defense is #56. Questions have arisen as to whether a team with a sub-50 defense can succeed in the Big Dance.
Interestingly enough, going back to 2009 Duke is the first team to have a top 20 offense and sub-40 defense to claim a #1 seed (using pre-Tournament Pomeroy numbers). So there's no direct comparison, but there are some indirect comparisons we can draw.
First, looking at all teams with top 20 offenses and sub-40 defenses over the last six seasons, there have been 55 NCAA tournament teams that have met those requirements. Of those, 12 have exceeded their seed-expectations, 16 have failed to reach their seed-expectations, and 27 have gone exactly as far as their seed would have predicted. I've looked at eight subsets of this data, and put them into the following table:
Subset Exceeded SE Failed to reach SE Exactly met SE
--------------------------------- ------------ ------------------ ---------------
Top 20 off; sub-40 def 12 16 27
Top 10 off; sub-40 def 8 10 12
Top 10 off; sub-50 def 8 8 9
Top 5 off; sub-50 def 4 5 6
Top 20 off; sub-40 def, Top 4 seed 4 8 7
Top 10 off; sub-40 def, Top 4 seed 3 8 5
Top 10 off; sub-50 def, Top 4 seed 3 6 3
Top 5 off; sub-50 def, Top 4 seed 3 4 3
So, the closer we get to Duke's situation, the more it looks like it doesn't really matter. That said, here are the teams in the past six seasons who have most resembled Duke's 3/56 Pomeroy offense/defense split:
2010 Baylor (5/52), 3-seed, Elite 8 (exceeded seed-expectations);
2011 Notre Dame (3/62), 2-seed, second round (failed to meet seed-expectations);
2011 Wisconsin (2/63), 4-seed, Sweet 16 (met seed-expectation);
2012 Missouri (1/76), 2-seed, first round upset victim (failed to meet seed-expectation);
2012 Indiana (4/58), 4-seed, Sweet 16 (met seed-expectation);
2013 Michigan (2/58), 4-seed, Final 2 (exceeded seed-expectation);
2014 Wisconsin (5/59), 2-seed, Final 4 (exceeded seed-expectation);
2014 Kansas (6/45), 2-seed, second round (failed to meet seed-expectation).
And again it doesn't appear to matter, as three of the above exceeded seed-expections (two Final Fours and an Elite Eight), three failed to meet seed-expectations (a first round upset and two second-round upsets), and two met seed-expectations exactly. Duke's seed-expectation is a Final Four -- a pretty high bar -- so the good news is all of the above categories show at least an even chance of meeting or exceeding seed-expectation.
(3) What defense will Duke play?
For first time since the Earth's crust cooled, Coach K has employed zone defense on a regular basis this season. He's been mixing things up, sometimes showing his traditional man-to-man, sometimes a different man-to-man that looks suspiciously like a matchup zone, sometimes playing a 2-3 zone, and sometimes a 3-2, even on one occasion a 1-3-1, with a variety of full-court and three-quarter-court presses and traps thrown in. After Miami beat us at Cameron and the players and coaches all said afterward that they knew exactly what Duke would throw at them defensively and therefore could exploit it, I doubt many if any Duke opponents have felt that way after the game.
So what's important, picking the best defense to match the opponent, switching up various defenses in a single game, or is it simply the surprise? If opponents don't know what's coming it's that much harder to game plan. And total surprises on D have been featured in many of our big wins: Wisconsin (switching every screen instead of hedging or icing); Louisville (zone all game); Virginia (first sighting of our 3-2 zone); UNC (Quinn face-guarding Paige); and NC State in the ACC tournament (mix of three-quarter court pressure and a 1-3-1 zone).
I'm excited to see what new wrinkles Coach K might come up with in the upcoming games. Who knows, now that everyone is expecting zones, maybe he'll try 100% traditional Duke man-to-man for a game?
(4) How deep into the bench will Duke go?
We only have eight scholarship players, so we don't really have an "end of the bench" anymore. But still, the question remains how much will Marshall Plumlee and Grayson Allen play in the upcoming games? We might see them a reasonable amount in the first couple games, but traditionally Coach K tightens his rotation significantly as the Tournament progresses. In the Championship game in 2010, only five Duke players played double-figure minutes. Marshall and Grayson have been playing well of late, but my guess is this year we'll have at least six double-figure minute guys in every game, but absent injury or foul trouble, it won't be more than that.
(5) How much will Duke's youth/inexperience matter?
Duke is a very young team, but even younger when it comes to NCAA tournament experience. Only four of our players have ever played in an NCAA game, and two of those (Matt and Marshall) have combined for 8 minutes of garbage time. Amile Jefferson has played in four tournament games, but in only two did he play double-figure minutes. So on our entire roster, only Quinn Cook has actually been battle-tested in the NCAA Tournament.
Does it matter? Who knows? Last year's Kentucky team made the Final game featuring a roster that combined for a total of zero (0) minutes of NCAA tournament experience. So it clearly didn't matter to them. But it's certainly worth watching to see how Duke's young players react to the Big Pressure Cooker.
(6) Will Duke bring the intensity every game?
There's a little bit of Jekyll and Hyde in this year's Duke squad. Perhaps because of our youth, our team seems to rise to the occasion in the big games and appears sometimes to sleepwalk when faced with a perceived inferior opponent. Not only that, but Duke often seems to come out flat in the game immediately following our best efforts. Consider our worst performances of the season:
-- First NC State game (loss): came after starting the season 14-0;
-- Miami game (loss): after NC State game; only game that doesn't match the pattern (though I think we may have coasted because the players at that time believed it was impossible for them to lose in Cameron);
-- First Notre Dame game (loss): game immediately after the exhilarating comeback win over St. John's for Coach K's 1000th win;
-- Third Notre Dame game (loss): game immediately after we crushed NC State the night before (and also remembering our blowout of Notre Dame in game #2);
-- Virginia Tech game (OT win): game immediately following our beatdown of Clemson without Jahlil;
-- Florida State game (3 point win): game immediately following epic smashing of Notre Dame in rematch;
-- Elon (13 point win over terrible team): next game after big win at Wisconsin;
-- Georgia Tech (6 point win at CIS): game immediately following big win at Virginia.
So in every game except Miami, we had a letdown after a big win. Perhaps the players get a little full of themselves and forget to bring the effort? Perhaps they underestimate how hard the opponent will play to beat Duke? Whatever the reason, this aspect of the team is what frightens me most looking forward. If we manage to get to the Elite Eight, I'm not too worried about a letdown there or beyond, but in the 2nd and 3rd round I really hope Coach K figures out how to deal with this. Maybe even the first round, but I'm not really stressing about that, coming after the loss to Notre Dame.
(7) How well do our prospective opponents match up with Duke?
In the first round game, we'll either play North Florida or Robert Morris. We can only hope Duke doesn't become the first 1-seed ever to lose to a 16-seed, but if we bring our intensity, we should be safe.
Using pre-Tournament Pomeroy, North Florida is #127 in the country, with the 98th best offense and the 178th best defense. They play at a reasonably fast tempo (60th in the nation, while Duke is 103rd). They profile as similar in talent to Wake Forest or Boston College, so we should win but the Ospreys may not be a pushover.
Robert Morris is ranked #173 in pre-T Pomeroy, with the 191st ranked offense and 169th ranked defense. Their tempo is ranked 131st. They profile as similar in talent to Virginia Tech, who of course took Duke to overtime.
If we win our first game, we'll play either San Diego State or St. John's in our second game.
San Diego State is a tough team, ranked #27 in pre-T Pomeroy, with the 161st ranked offense and the 4th (!) ranked defense. They play at a glacial tempo, 334th in the nation. This is a pretty difficult matchup for an 8-seed, but I think it's a decent one for Duke. Our offense is so strong that we've still managed to score against top six defenses like Virginia and Louisville; our troubles generally happen when we can't get stops on defense. In fact, all our losses came to teams with offenses ranked much better than their defenses, so I'm much happier to face an offensively-challenged team with a great defense than I would be to face an average defensive team with great offense.
St. John's would be a rematch game, and so far we've played great in second games against teams this season. They would also be playing without suspended
center Chris Obekpa, who started and played 36 minutes against Duke on January 25. The Red Storm is ranked #42 in pre-T Pomeroy, with the 62nd ranked offense and the 51st ranked defense, and play quick, the 61st ranked tempo in the land.
(8) LET'S GO DUKE!!!