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View Full Version : Wanna make a wager?



DUKIECB
03-17-2015, 02:07 PM
ESPN.com has a poll up asking who will win the NCAA tournament, Kentucky or the field? Interestingly enough 51% are picking Kentucky.

My money is on the field. Yes Kentucky is the overwhelming odds on favorite to win but that does not mean they have a better chance of winning than EVERY OTHER TEAM in the field. This used to get hashed around in the off topic forum all the time when Tiger was dominating. Even at his best he was only winning at 25% of the time. The field is the wise bet. Same here. I don't know where they get their numbers from but I think ESPN was giving KU a close to 40% chance of winning it all. I think you would be crazy to not take the field but what do I know?

So who ya got?

Kedsy
03-17-2015, 02:09 PM
I don't know where they get their numbers from but I think ESPN was giving KU a close to 40% chance of winning it all.

You mean UK?

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-17-2015, 02:10 PM
At last check I think it was Kentucky 49% the field 51%. However I don't want to vote bc I don't want to jynx it

FerryFor50
03-17-2015, 02:12 PM
These things are nearly impossible to project, as it largely depends on how the other teams do in the field. If Kentucky ends up facing the worst possible seed in every round then I like their chances.

Too many variants, too many data points. This is the main reason why they play the tournament rather than just voting who the best is.

Troublemaker
03-17-2015, 02:17 PM
ESPN.com has a poll up asking who will win the NCAA tournament, Kentucky or the field? Interestingly enough 51% are picking Kentucky.

My money is on the field. Yes Kentucky is the overwhelming odds on favorite to win but that does not mean they have a better chance of winning than EVERY OTHER TEAM in the field. This used to get hashed around in the off topic forum all the time when Tiger was dominating. Even at his best he was only winning at 25% of the time. The field is the wise bet. Same here. I don't know where they get their numbers from but I think ESPN was giving KU a close to 40% chance of winning it all. I think you would be crazy to not take the field but what do I know?

So who ya got?

Yep, I agree with you.

And so does 538, which gives UK a 41% chance of winning the championship: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ncaa-mens-tournament-forecast-the-parity-is-over/

And so does Kenpom, which gives UK a 33% chance: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ncaa_tournament_log5

And so does every respectable online sportsbook, all of whom are offering plus odds on UK winning it all.

Doesn't mean for this one tournament, they can't buck the odds and win it all. But if you replayed the tournament over and over and over again, they probably would win < 50% of the time.

DUKIECB
03-17-2015, 02:30 PM
You mean UK?Why yes I did :)

nmduke2001
03-17-2015, 02:46 PM
Kentucky was taken to overtime by Ole Miss at Rupp. Ole Miss barely made the field. UK was taken to 2OT against Texas A&M, which did not make the field. What are Kentucky's best wins? The thrashing of Kansas back in November? Maybe the win against Louisville at Louisville? UK is beatable.

superdave
03-17-2015, 02:54 PM
Kentucky was taken to overtime by Ole Miss at Rupp. Ole Miss barely made the field. UK was taken to 2OT against Texas A&M, which did not make the field. What are Kentucky's best wins? The thrashing of Kansas back in November? Maybe the win against Louisville at Louisville? UK is beatable.

Bingo. I'd pack it in to protect the defensive glass and make them hit shots. I dont think the Harrison twins are all that great, so I'd wager they cannot beat me. I'd also wager on those two not hesitating to take a lot of bad shots.

jv001
03-17-2015, 03:15 PM
Bingo. I'd pack it in to protect the defensive glass and make them hit shots. I dont think the Harrison twins are all that great, so I'd wager they cannot beat me. I'd also wager on those two not hesitating to take a lot of bad shots.

On offense I think we would have to hit some mid-range jump shots. From what I've seen this season it's hard for anyone to score around the basket because of their size. I'm surprised teams have not tried to run the fast break so UK can't set up their defense. I guess those teams have had to send everyone to the boards to get the rebound. GoDuke!

MarkD83
03-17-2015, 09:02 PM
What are Kentucky's best wins?

The win against UNC, because UNC lost.

JNort
03-17-2015, 09:47 PM
Maybe it's just me but I don't think UK is as good as they are made out to be. Probably Cals 4th or 5th best team he's had. Only way they make it to the championship is because they have a super easy bracket. I like Duke, Wiscy, and Zags all over Uk. I'd really like to see Texas play them again as well. Heck I think if they play up to their level I think State can match them.

Dukehky
03-17-2015, 09:51 PM
I think that UK is really good. I would take their 2010 team over this one, however, there are only approximately 10 good teams this year.

Idk man, I think that they aren't the greatest team ever or anything, but I think that they are the best team this year by a pretty substantial margin. Doesn't mean they will win, but in my money bracket, I picked them.