What is/are your big opening round upset(s)?

[Wander]

Everyone picks 12's over 5's, that doesn't count.

[Kedsy]

Upsets come in bunches. For example, I have no idea why, but we've seen six 12 v. 13 seed matchups in the past seven years (plus a 10 v. 15 and an 11 v. 14 during the same seven year period). So, if you won't count 12 over 5 and you want to find a "big" opening round upset, then my advice is to pick a 13 that will play your most likely 12 over 5. In my case, I think Arkansas is the worst 5-seed, so Wofford is a prime 12 over 5 upset candidate. The matching 13-seed is Harvard over UNC, which has the added bonus of being Harvard over UNC. So that was my vote.

[crimsondevil]

Is there any question who should win this poll?

Go Crimson!

[captmojo]

Everyone picks 12's over 5's, that doesn't count.

I can't help how the thing was seeded.
If Moss is healthier than this past weekend, (which wasn't bad) Buffalo over West ByGod.
If the 12/5 is not eligible, I look for BYU to win tonight and then take Xavier out.

Out of the list above I don't really see a upset. Even though, Georgetown is too highly rated.
No vote made.

[rtnorthrup]

The interesting thing for me is how people look for upsets. Do you look at the strength of the underdog or the weakness of the favorite? Do you look for potential mismatches? Do you look at coaches, guards, big men, tempo, scoring, etc?

On paper the #3 seeds look pretty strong, and but for Kentucky, I think you could make a Final Four case for most of them. You have two conference tourney champs from two of the strongest conferences: Iowa St. and Notre Dame. Going into the tournament selection show Baylor and Iowa State looked like good values.

On paper the #4 seeds look pretty vulnerable to me. I might have moved MD up to a #3 and OK down to a #4, but the rest of the #4 seeds don't seem to have deep runs in them.

Albany and Harvard to me look like the strongest of the underdog teams, but I don't think anyone will take Harvard lightly anymore.

Interesting to see how people decide these games.

[Wander]

The interesting thing for me is how people look for upsets. Do you look at the strength of the underdog or the weakness of the favorite? Do you look for potential mismatches? Do you look at coaches, guards, big men, tempo, scoring, etc?


The first thing I do is open up mock NBA drafts and look for which underdogs have talent that casual fans don't know about. I got Bradley over Kansas and Morehead State over Louisville correct because of this method. This year, that team is Georgia State, who has a possible first round pick in addition to a Kentucky transfer and a Louisville transfer.

[FerryFor50]

Mods, can we rename this thread to "Help Wander fill out his brackets"? :p

[JNort]

With wander. I have done 5 brackets on espn and all of them I have Baylor losing to Georgia St. Two highly rated transfers are on that team and I have been a big Ryan Harrow homer since he was at NC State

[FerryFor50]

With wander. I have done 5 brackets on espn and all of them I have Baylor losing to Georgia St. Two highly rated transfers are on that team and I have been a big Ryan Harrow homer since he was at NC State

Only problem is, will Harrow be healthy?

He missed the conf championship with a strained hammy and played only 6 minutes the game before.

[Kedsy]

With wander. I have done 5 brackets on espn and all of them I have Baylor losing to Georgia St. Two highly rated transfers are on that team and I have been a big Ryan Harrow homer since he was at NC State

Except in Georgia State's last three games, Harrow played 14, 6, and 0 minutes. If he doesn't play, I don't like their chances of pulling the upset.

[SCMatt33]

I'm probably too much of a wimp to even consider picking this in a real bracket, but Kansas absolutely cannot look past New Mexico State at all. With Alexander out, and Perry Ellis still way less than 100%, Kansas has really struggled on offense and will actually be the smaller team on the floor. New Mexico State was missing it's top 2 players for a significant chunk of the season. They're worst loss with both on the court came against UTEP, and one of them was trying to play through his injury at the time. They have not lost a game at full strength. They haven't beaten anyone significant either, which is why they're a 15 seed. Many thought they might be 14 seed, but the committee disagreed. Kansas will still have the better talent on the floor by far, But if the refs call a loose game (Kansas get nearly a quarter of its points from the line, top 30 in the nation), and New Mexico State wins the battle on the glass, you could have a 15-2 upset recipe.

[mr. synellinden]

I'm probably too much of a wimp to even consider picking this in a real bracket, but Kansas absolutely cannot look past New Mexico State at all. With Alexander out, and Perry Ellis still way less than 100%, Kansas has really struggled on offense and will actually be the smaller team on the floor. New Mexico State was missing it's top 2 players for a significant chunk of the season. They're worst loss with both on the court came against UTEP, and one of them was trying to play through his injury at the time. They have not lost a game at full strength. They haven't beaten anyone significant either, which is why they're a 15 seed. Many thought they might be 14 seed, but the committee disagreed. Kansas will still have the better talent on the floor by far, But if the refs call a loose game (Kansas get nearly a quarter of its points from the line, top 30 in the nation), and New Mexico State wins the battle on the glass, you could have a 15-2 upset recipe.


This is my pick. In terms of a "safe" upset pick, I also like this one because I think Wichita St. would have a good chance to take out Kansas in the round of 32. The risk of making that kind of upset pick is the risk that your losing team makes a run to the final four. And being in Kentucky's region makes that very unlikely for Kansas even if they're able to get out of the first weekend.

[jv001]

Except in Georgia State's last three games, Harrow played 14, 6, and 0 minutes. If he doesn't play, I don't like their chances of pulling the upset.

Is Georgia State the team that won their conference tourney scoring 38 points? They must be a terrific defensive team or the NCAA let them play that game without a clock. In other words, they ran the "four corners". :cool: GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

Is Georgia State the team that won their conference tourney scoring 38 points? They must be a terrific defensive team or the NCAA let them play that game without a clock. In other words, they ran the "four corners". :cool: GoDuke!

It is, Georgia State won its conference championship game 38-36, but I think it had more to do with the opponent, Georgia Southern, a team that won its previous game 44-43.

[Native]

I don't think it will happen, but Virginia better watch out for Belmont, particularly if Anderson is still rusty.

[SCMatt33]

I don't think it will happen, but Virginia better watch out for Belmont, particularly if Anderson is still rusty.

I don't think UVA needs to worry too much about this game, even without Anderson. Belmont looks really scary because they take an insane amount of 3's, 48 percent of their shots from 3. For reference, Duke has been under 40 in this stat every year in the KenPom era (since 2002). UVA actually lets teams take a lot of 3's with their defensive style, but you have to shoot over their length. Belmont plays a 3 guard system, with none bigger than 6-3. Good luck to Belmont on shaking London Perrentes or shooting over the top of Brogdon, Shayok, or Nolte. When it's strength on strength like this, I'll take the better team. More often, you see upsets where the underdogs strength attacks an opponents weakness. Plus, UVA will kill them on the boards, so they should get at least some scoring, even if it comes on second chances. They'll also keep Belmont out of transition which should hurt a team who likes to play fast.

[Newton_14]

I like SF Austin over Utah... book it.

[ArtVandelay]

I'm surprised this pick isn't more popular here: what about Valparaiso over Maryland? According to the computer systems, Maryland is over-seeded as a 4, and Valpo is a decent team. Paging Bryce Drew?

[77devil]

I like SF Austin over Utah... book it.

Wishful thinking I say. I hope you're right, but I'm picking Utah.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wishful thinking I say. I hope you're right, but I'm picking Utah.

Yeah. This is the 12-5 that I just don't see happening. Utah is incredibly underrated. I expect to see them in the Sweet 16. I actually like most of the 5s this year. It's the 4s and 6s that I see plenty of upsets.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I predict every SEC school will lose in the second round (aka original first round) except for Kentucky of course.

[Gilby_10]

If Ryan Harrow is healthy I think Georgia St is as close to a lock to pull the upset as a 14 seed as I can remember. Those 3 guards together for Georgia St are as good as any three for a high level team in the nation, Even still without Harrow I like RJ Hunter to get hot and shoot his team to the next round. I also love the New Mexico St and Belmont picks in this bracket. Belmont averages 10 made 3's a game. Now think about that, if they get hot and play loose like they should considering they are a 15 seed and have nothing to lose, who says they can't make 15-20 and pull off the upset. As for kansas, I just don't think they're very good as a 2 seed, I like New Mexico St shutting them down, winning the rebound battle, and making this game close. I'm not sure New Mexico St has a guard to go win a tournament game down the stretch so Kansas by a very thin margin.

[ACCBBallFan]

Hedging my bets.

Even though I have G-town as my wildcard in Kedsy's contest, I chose E Wash over Hoyas here due to location of the game.

I had to choose wild card before that info was known

[mgtr]

I don't have the choice in this poll, but I want Texas and UCLA out as soon as possible. Sort of a "there, NCAA, take that" slap in the face for selecting those two (possibly for ticket sales, as one poster suggested).

[rsvman]

Harrow definitely not playing for Georgia State.

Decreases the upset chances by quite a bit.

[Kedsy]

Harrow definitely not playing for Georgia State.

Decreases the upset chances by quite a bit.

If you don't mind my asking, where did you see this? I've been poking around but I can't find it anywhere.

[Wander]

If you don't mind my asking, where did you see this? I've been poking around but I can't find it anywhere.

Yeah, Georgia State did some interviews this morning and Harrow said he'll be a game time decision. Of course I agree with you guys that this makes a big difference as to how likely the upset is.

[Edouble]

The interesting thing for me is how people look for upsets. Do you look at the strength of the underdog or the weakness of the favorite? Do you look for potential mismatches? Do you look at coaches, guards, big men, tempo, scoring, etc?

On paper the #3 seeds look pretty strong, and but for Kentucky, I think you could make a Final Four case for most of them. You have two conference tourney champs from two of the strongest conferences: Iowa St. and Notre Dame. Going into the tournament selection show Baylor and Iowa State looked like good values.

On paper the #4 seeds look pretty vulnerable to me. I might have moved MD up to a #3 and OK down to a #4, but the rest of the #4 seeds don't seem to have deep runs in them.

Albany and Harvard to me look like the strongest of the underdog teams, but I don't think anyone will take Harvard lightly anymore.

Interesting to see how people decide these games.

I always look for the weakness of the favorite. If you have a weakness, you will lose. The lower seeds are usually experienced and ready to play.

[NashvilleDevil]

It's obvious that the biggest upset will be Duke over Robert Morris. Haven't you heard that RMU is the best team since North Florida?

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

For what its worth E. Washington's coach pretty much guaranteed a win on the Jim Rome show on CBS radio. He said "were going to win Jim and we will talk again" He also wanted everyone to know that he has the nations top scorer and that his team beat Indiana at Indiana, and that the kids play fast. Should be interesting!!! Can't friggin wait.

[superdave]

I don't have the choice in this poll, but I want Texas and UCLA out as soon as possible. Sort of a "there, NCAA, take that" slap in the face for selecting those two (possibly for ticket sales, as one poster suggested).

I always feel like those teams make a run because they have a chip on their shoulder. But I do feel the same way.

I am not so worried about either team, because they just cannot win two tough games in a row.

But I am really hopeful for a 1st round Unc exit given their struggles. Strike while the iron is hot.

[Wander]

For what its worth E. Washington's coach pretty much guaranteed a win on the Jim Rome show on CBS radio. He said "were going to win Jim and we will talk again" He also wanted everyone to know that he has the nations top scorer and that his team beat Indiana at Indiana, and that the kids play fast. Should be interesting!!! Can't friggin wait.

I am basically only not picking the EWU upset solely because Georgetown can't possibly lose to a double digit seed that many times in a row... right?

[yancem]

I actually don't think that as many high seeds are going to fall opening weekend as the last few years. the 5-12 match ups seem to favor the 5's more this year and I don't particularly like any of the 13-16 seeds. I'm sure there will be 1 or two (and maybe Georgia St. is as tough as everyone is saying) but I'm just not feeling Cinderella this year. For the record I picked Georgetown to go down for this thread because I felt I should pick someone but I didn't make that pick on my bracket. Of course just now relooking at my bracket, I picked all 4 11 seeds, so what do I know?

[captmojo]

Hedging my bets.

Even though I have G-town as my wildcard in Kedsy's contest, I chose E Wash over Hoyas here due to location of the game.

I had to choose wild card before that info was known

I don't feel that enough people take this under consideration when choosing their predicted winners. I always have.

In this case, I don't think that EWU has enough firepower or experience. Even though Gtown has to go across the continent, experience of past disappointment should be enough to lift them above upset. Others immune to the travel factor I think are Louisville and Davidson. In contrast, I believe it to be the sole reason for picking Cincinnati over Purdue and Butler over Texas.

[Kedsy]

I'll take UAB over Iowa State. What do you think?

[nmduke2001]

UAB over ISU. too late?

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Props to rifraf and TheDukeCreed for calling that one...color me impressed.

[SCMatt33]

Maybe there should have been an option for all of them. Year of the 14 seed.

[MCFinARL]

Yeah, Georgia State did some interviews this morning and Harrow said he'll be a game time decision. Of course I agree with you guys that this makes a big difference as to how likely the upset is.

Yes, but--in the end they pulled it off without Harrow. Great last sequence--coach's son hits a three with 2 seconds left to give Ga. State the lead, coach (who tore his hamstring celebrating the team's conference win) gets so excited he falls of his court side stool.

[yancem]

I actually don't think that as many high seeds are going to fall opening weekend as the last few years. the 5-12 match ups seem to favor the 5's more this year and I don't particularly like any of the 13-16 seeds. I'm sure there will be 1 or two (and maybe Georgia St. is as tough as everyone is saying) but I'm just not feeling Cinderella this year. For the record I picked Georgetown to go down for this thread because I felt I should pick someone but I didn't make that pick on my bracket. Of course just now relooking at my bracket, I picked all 4 11 seeds, so what do I know?

Ok, so apparently I have no clue and there are going to be a lot of major upsets!!!

[DukeWarhead]

I always feel like those teams make a run because they have a chip on their shoulder. But I do feel the same way.

I am not so worried about either team, because they just cannot win two tough games in a row.

But I am really hopeful for a 1st round Unc exit given their struggles. Strike while the iron is hot.

Texas is about to oblige you.
Way to go Big 12, 0-3. Pfffffffffft. Toughest conference, my a**.

[77devil]

Texas is about to oblige you.
Way to go Big 12, 0-3. Pfffffffffft. Toughest conference, my a**.

Rick Barnes followed by Larry Brown are out. Gotta like that-a lot.

[uh_no]

i pick real life to upset my entire bracket.

[Newton_14]

I actually don't think that as many high seeds are going to fall opening weekend as the last few years. the 5-12 match ups seem to favor the 5's more this year and I don't particularly like any of the 13-16 seeds. I'm sure there will be 1 or two (and maybe Georgia St. is as tough as everyone is saying) but I'm just not feeling Cinderella this year. For the record I picked Georgetown to go down for this thread because I felt I should pick someone but I didn't make that pick on my bracket. Of course just now relooking at my bracket, I picked all 4 11 seeds, so what do I know?

Care to revisit that thinking? :)

Two 14's have wins already, as does a 10 over a 7. The latter not that big of an upset but still counts.


And Joel James is still the worst big in the country. He just threw a pass to a wide open Amaker! lol

[yancem]

Care to revisit that thinking? :)

Two 14's have wins already, as does a 10 over a 7. The latter not that big of an upset but still counts.


And Joel James is still the worst big in the country. He just threw a pass to a wide open Amaker! lol

If you look a few posts above, I already admitted I was clueless.

[FerryFor50]

Care to revisit that thinking? :)

Two 14's have wins already, as does a 10 over a 7. The latter not that big of an upset but still counts.


And Joel James is still the worst big in the country. He just threw a pass to a wide open Amaker! lol

The best part about Joel James is that he not only doesn't know he's bad, he thinks he's good.

[Newton_14]

If you look a few posts above, I already admitted I was clueless.

Just funnin with ya yancem! I picked all the wrong upsets again myself. I am a master at that trick.

[Newton_14]

The best part about Joel James is that he not only doesn't know he's bad, he thinks he's good.

You are sooo right! His body language is that of Michael Jordan or something. Like "Yeah man, I am da man! Check out what I am gonna do to you in these 6 minutes Roy is going to play me tonight! Yall hear about the night I shutdown the player of the year Okafor? Shut the dude down man. And just like MJ with Dean, Ol Roy is the only man that can hold me under 20! I got a killer turn around jumper from about 12 feet too! This Unc team is defnitaly built around me dawg!"

He thinks he's good. He plays 6 minutes per game. Sigh...

[FerryFor50]

You are sooo right! His body language is that of Michael Jordan or something. Like "Yeah man, I am da man! Check out what I am gonna do to you in these 6 minutes Roy is going to play me tonight! Yall hear about the night I shutdown the player of the year Okafor? Shut the dude down man. And just like MJ with Dean, Ol Roy is the only man that can hold me under 20! I got a killer turn around jumper from about 12 feet too! This Unc team is defnitaly built around me dawg!"

He thinks he's good. He plays 6 minutes per game. Sigh...

You can tell how confident he is with some of those post moves he tries. Hilarious.

Who knows... maybe he'll turn into a serviceable player next season.