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View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs Robert Morris, NCAAT R64 (Fri 1910 EDT, CBS) Pregame/In-game thread



hurleyfor3
03-15-2015, 06:45 PM
Discuss our game with North Florida and/or Robert Morris here.

CR9
03-15-2015, 08:21 PM
Any early time indication? Are these usually late games?

sagegrouse
03-15-2015, 08:28 PM
Any early time indication? Are these usually late games?

It takes the networks -- CBS and the TBS family -- about a day to figure things out. Look ffor an announcement on Tuesday, if it is like previous years.

freshmanjs
03-15-2015, 08:29 PM
It takes the networks -- CBS and the TBS family -- about a day to figure things out. Look ffor an announcement on Tuesday, if it is like previous years.

actually they usually announce the game times sunday night.

DukieInBrasil
03-15-2015, 08:35 PM
assuming we beat the #16 seed, the 2nd round game presents a potential, and interesting, rematch game vs. SJU. Duke has played extremely well in the 1st round of rematch games, winning all of them. Duke did lose the 2nd rematch vs. ND.

uh_no
03-15-2015, 08:40 PM
actually they usually announce the game times sunday night.

we should have a later game because the winner of the playin game have to fly in from dayton

NashvilleDevil
03-15-2015, 09:15 PM
Announced that Duke tips at 7:10

awhom111
03-15-2015, 09:17 PM
Announced that Duke tips at 7:10

On CBS with Grant Hill:
https://pressroom.turner.com/us/turner-sports/ncaa-march-madness/cbs-sports-and-turner-sports’-exclusive-coverage-2015-ncaa®#.VQYtTuizkhg.facebook

SCMatt33
03-15-2015, 10:21 PM
On CBS with Grant Hill:
https://pressroom.turner.com/us/turner-sports/ncaa-march-madness/cbs-sports-and-turner-sports’-exclusive-coverage-2015-ncaa®#.VQYtTuizkhg.facebook

I'm excited for Raftery/Hill as an analyst pair. There were a lot of guys to worry about getting (Elmore/Webber, Gottlieb, Reggie Miller), but we probably got the best they had to offer. Not terribly surprising with Michigan State and Virginia also in Charlotte.

fuse
03-16-2015, 07:33 AM
Things I'd like to see game one:

A victory
Everyone healthy
A large margin victory
Lots of playing time for Amile, Grayson and Marshall


If we play to our potential, the next few weeks will be fun.

Let's Go Duke- bring focus, intensity and play our best!

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-16-2015, 07:53 AM
I predict that we will win this game, and that if we don't we wont win the tournament. :cool:

Also we have no business winning the tournament if we can't beat whoever our opponent is. The loss to ND hopefully refocused our guys, and they will be rested enough and healed enough to make a real run at the title. It won't be easy, but who ever said it was supposed to be easy. Bring it on, I hope I get to watch Duke play all the way into April.

LETS GO DUKE!!!

oakroom
03-16-2015, 08:05 AM
Discuss our game with North Florida and/or Robert Morris here.

Hopefully "or", not "and" -- not sure we can take on both of them at once! ;)

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-16-2015, 08:08 AM
Hopefully "or", not "and" -- not sure we can take on both of them at once! ;)

If we are going to win the Championship we need to be able to beat two teams at once, its the only way to prepare for the shock and awe of Kentucky's Blue and White substitution patterns....

I'll tell you later if I am serious or not

Jackson
03-16-2015, 08:35 AM
I'm excited for Raftery/Hill as an analyst pair. There were a lot of guys to worry about getting (Elmore/Webber, Gottlieb, Reggie Miller), but we probably got the best they had to offer. Not terribly surprising with Michigan State and Virginia also in Charlotte.

I'd like to see Mike Gminski calling games more often and higher level games. I'm afraid that Raftery is beginning to become, not unlike Vitale a victim of his own persona. Spanarkel is really good too. Guess we just need a Duke play-by-play.

Dev11
03-16-2015, 09:11 AM
Hopefully "or", not "and" -- not sure we can take on both of them at once! ;)

If you want to defeat the buggers, you best learn how to beat two armies at once. The rules will always be stacked against you.

Go Dragon Army!

devildeac
03-16-2015, 09:29 AM
Discuss our game with North Florida and/or Robert Morris here.


Hopefully "or", not "and" -- not sure we can take on both of them at once! ;)


If we are going to win the Championship we need to be able to beat two teams at once, its the only way to prepare for the shock and awe of Kentucky's Blue and White substitution patterns....

I'll tell you later if I am serious or not


If you want to defeat the buggers, you best learn how to beat two armies at once. The rules will always be stacked against you.

Go Dragon Army!

There may be some truth to this line of thinking as we "appeared" to play 5 on 8 several times this year, so taking on 2 foes at once might not be that much more difficult. ;):rolleyes:

mgtr
03-16-2015, 10:24 AM
I am just a small-town pizza lawyer:D, but I think the top half of our bracket looks good for us. The bottom half could be a problem. I guess that either Iowa State or Gonzaga could take that half, and either would be a challenge. Or something else could happen!

DukeinDC
03-16-2015, 10:53 AM
The ESPN scouting report for N. Florida is a little scary considering we don't have the length or tough man-to-man to really disrupt them per se and their perimeter defensive strength is probably more important than containing Jah to beat Duke. Robert Morris plays a match up zone, which won't faze us (or probably N. Florida). Agree, with everyone - if we can't beat them, we weren't going to do much in the tourney anyway. On the other hand, would really hate to have this on K's legacy or ruin future tourney watching for me by hearing about this for the next 3 weeks and 10 years.

-----
Biggest strength: The Ospreys can really shoot the basketball from all over the floor. North Florida's offensive system allows for anyone to pull the trigger when open, and with seven players shooting over 35 percent from deep, everyone must be accounted for. They might live and die by the 3-point shot, but this year they've lived pretty well.

Biggest weakness: Big-game experience. The Ospreys have just two seniors, and you can't simulate tournament atmosphere or pressure. Making a few shots early would be an easy way to counteract this shortcoming and settle the nerves.

Best player: Moore. The 6-foot-1 guard can shoot it from deep (37 percent) or in close (53 percent). The lefty is exceptionally quick with the ball in his hands and gets to the rim with relative ease. He's also great in transition and scored 36 on 12-of-17 shooting in the A-Sun semifinal against Lipscomb.

X factor: Daniels. He scored a combined 13 points in the three games leading up the A-Sun final, where he scored 22 and grabbed six rebounds. Daniels is long, athletic and can score on the block as well as stroke it from deep (38 percent). If North Florida gets an effort like that come tournament time, the Ospreys will be much more dangerous.

SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Ospreys have a very well-balanced offensive attack, as six players average more than eight points per game and shoot at least 36 percent from deep. North Florida plays at a quicker tempo than most (67th nationally) and will shoot early in the shot clock. The Ospreys have an equal opportunity offense that can be hard to defend.

Defensive approach: North Florida plays a traditional man-to-man defense and will switch on ball screens. Their guards play excellent perimeter defense (31.5 percent shooting, 51st nationally). They don't force many turnovers, relying instead on fundamental defensive principles.

How they beat you: The Atlantic Sun champs will win by flat-out shooting the ball. With a roster full of players who can shoot it from deep, North Florida is a dangerous automatic qualifier. The 3-point usually shot is in the catalyst of great March upsets, and this team has the ingredients to pull one off.

How you beat them: Limit them to one-and-done possessions and extend your defense. Giving a great shooting team extra possessions always is a bad idea, so owning the defensive glass is the first step. Playing a traditional zone likely would be a poor decision, but a team that plays tough man-to-man defense and has length could pose issues for the Ospreys.

SCMatt33
03-16-2015, 11:26 AM
I think that N. Florida is a bit oversold in that scouting report. Their biggest weakness is easily their rebounding, which isn't mentioned too much. They're outside the top 200 on KenPom in both offensive and defensive rebounding. And those stats could even be inflated based on playing much smaller competition most of the year. They also don't turn teams over very much. Their bigger defensive strengths are shooting defense and keeping teams off of the line. Against a team like Duke, they'll have a hard time doing both. With very little depth on the roster (they only play 7 guys regularly), they'll likely have to choose the latter. I'd expect a large number of paint points from Duke.

On the other end, I haven't seen too much of them this year, but based in their tempo, I'd imagine that a lot of their 2 point offense comes in transition. They do rely heavily on 3's and you never know when a team can get hot from outside, but they don't have an interior scorer to help take pressure off of the perimeter. Of the big conference teams they played, the only one in the top 100 in pace was FSU, and North Florida really wore down early in the second half. FSU was up 22 before coasting the last 8 minutes. They did have success against Big Ten competition, but I think they'll have trouble against a team that encourages they're pace...assuming they beat Bobby Morris in Dayton of course.

peterjswift
03-16-2015, 11:31 AM
If you want to defeat the buggers, you best learn how to beat two armies at once. The rules will always be stacked against you.

Go Dragon Army!

I agree - this reminds me of Coach K's pre-game speech: "Always remember, the enemy's gate is down!"

Troublemaker
03-16-2015, 12:00 PM
Robert Morris plays a match up zone, which won't faze us (or probably N. Florida). Agree, with everyone - if we can't beat them, we weren't going to do much in the tourney anyway. On the other hand, would really hate to have this on K's legacy or ruin future tourney watching for me by hearing about this for the next 3 weeks and 10 years.

Thanks for the scouting report. Not sure why you're capping the ignominy at 10 years, though. Losing to a 16 seed is rest of your life type stuff.

RMU can definitely beat UNF and they could even win easily if the Ospreys aren't shooting well. In their last two games, UNF has shot 6-24 and 5-21 from three. Maybe they're in some sort of shooting slump right now.

I'll be rooting for RMU (as if that weren't obvious). UNF's lineups where they put 5 shooters on the floor are a greater threat to Duke than RMU's biggest strength, which is probably the Colonials' turnover-forcing ability that ranks 30th in the country. Duke can surely get sloppy with turnovers sometimes, though, so maybe I'm wrong.

FerryFor50
03-16-2015, 12:10 PM
Thanks for the scouting report. Not sure why you're capping the ignominy at 10 years, though. Losing to a 16 seed is rest of your life type stuff.

RMU can definitely beat UNF and they could even win easily if the Ospreys aren't shooting well. In their last two games, UNF has shot 6-24 and 5-21 from three. Maybe they're in some sort of shooting slump right now.

I'll be rooting for RMU (as if that weren't obvious). UNF's lineups where they put 5 shooters on the floor are a greater threat to Duke than RMU's biggest strength, which is probably the Colonials' turnover-forcing ability that ranks 30th in the country. Duke can surely get sloppy with turnovers sometimes, though, so maybe I'm wrong.

If Duke is as concerned with these two teams as you are, they should be fine. :)

sagegrouse
03-16-2015, 12:13 PM
The ESPN scouting report for N. Florida is a little scary considering we don't have the length or tough man-to-man to really disrupt them per se and their perimeter defensive strength is probably more important than containing Jah to beat Duke. Robert Morris plays a match up zone, which won't faze us (or probably N. Florida). Agree, with everyone - if we can't beat them, we weren't going to do much in the tourney anyway. On the other hand, would really hate to have this on K's legacy or ruin future tourney watching for me by hearing about this for the next 3 weeks and 10 years.

-----
Biggest strength: The Ospreys can really shoot the basketball from all over the floor. North Florida's offensive system allows for anyone to pull the trigger when open, and with seven players shooting over 35 percent from deep, everyone must be accounted for. They might live and die by the 3-point shot, but this year they've lived pretty well.

Biggest weakness: Big-game experience. The Ospreys have just two seniors, and you can't simulate tournament atmosphere or pressure. Making a few shots early would be an easy way to counteract this shortcoming and settle the nerves.

Best player: Moore. The 6-foot-1 guard can shoot it from deep (37 percent) or in close (53 percent). The lefty is exceptionally quick with the ball in his hands and gets to the rim with relative ease. He's also great in transition and scored 36 on 12-of-17 shooting in the A-Sun semifinal against Lipscomb.

X factor: Daniels. He scored a combined 13 points in the three games leading up the A-Sun final, where he scored 22 and grabbed six rebounds. Daniels is long, athletic and can score on the block as well as stroke it from deep (38 percent). If North Florida gets an effort like that come tournament time, the Ospreys will be much more dangerous.

SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Ospreys have a very well-balanced offensive attack, as six players average more than eight points per game and shoot at least 36 percent from deep. North Florida plays at a quicker tempo than most (67th nationally) and will shoot early in the shot clock. The Ospreys have an equal opportunity offense that can be hard to defend.

Defensive approach: North Florida plays a traditional man-to-man defense and will switch on ball screens. Their guards play excellent perimeter defense (31.5 percent shooting, 51st nationally). They don't force many turnovers, relying instead on fundamental defensive principles.

How they beat you: The Atlantic Sun champs will win by flat-out shooting the ball. With a roster full of players who can shoot it from deep, North Florida is a dangerous automatic qualifier. The 3-point usually shot is in the catalyst of great March upsets, and this team has the ingredients to pull one off.

How you beat them: Limit them to one-and-done possessions and extend your defense. Giving a great shooting team extra possessions always is a bad idea, so owning the defensive glass is the first step. Playing a traditional zone likely would be a poor decision, but a team that plays tough man-to-man defense and has length could pose issues for the Ospreys.

The problems for any #16 seed against Duke -- or even a #12 seed masquerading as a #16 seed -- are the match-ups against Okafor and Winslow. The size, footwork and touch of Jahlil and the speed, power and brute strength of Justice will be almost impossible to stop.

CDu
03-16-2015, 12:55 PM
Outside of Quinn Cook and Amile Jefferson, our guys have played a whopping 8 total minutes of NCAA tournament action in their careers combined. EIGHT! It is not often that Duke goes into a first-weekend tournament game without a decided advantage in NCAA tournament experience. But if Robert Morris wins that will be the case for our first game. And if we're lucky enough to win that one (and if San Diego State wins), it will be true on Sunday as well. Obviously we know that the four freshmen have no experience in the NCAA tournament. But 6 of our 8 players have basically not played at all in the NCAA tournament. Will jitters be an issue?

Of the guys who actually have played, Amile Jefferson has played just 47 total minutes in the tournament, and has scored just 4 points on 5 attempts. Only Cook has played a lot of tourney minutes (172). Cook had a monster performance in our loss to Mercer last year 7-10 on 3s, 23 points. But prior to that, he had never shot above 25% from the field in a tourney game and was 8-37 (21.6%) combined in his previous NCAA games. Will he play like he did last year, or more like he did consistently in his previous games?

I don't say these things to be negative. I just say them to point out how green this team is when it comes to playing (not to mention playing well) the NCAA Tournament. No game should be taken lightly, because you just never know.

In terms of the matchups, we'll either face UNF or Robert Morris. Both teams are good three-point shooting teams. Both teams prefer a lineup with at least four perimeter players (UNF often rolls with five) including at least one 6'8" guy who shoots 3s really well. Both teams are way undersized in the paint with regard to handling Okafor. Neither team plays much defense.

The lack of traditional post presence on offense could create problems for us defensively when Okafor is on the floor. I wonder if Coach K will buck conventional wisdom and play more zone, even though these teams are both good shooting teams. The more we can hide Okafor's lack of defensive mobility, the better. And neither team is well-suited to punish a zone with offensive rebounding. Maybe mixing up the 3-2 (less optimal with Okafor because he'd have to cover the corner 3) and 2-3 (better for Okafor but less optimal for defending the 3 as a team) zones will keep our opponent off-balance.

The good news is that we should be able to dominate the glass and score inside against either of these teams. UNF has one big (6'11", 235 Banks) but he only plays about 18 mpg and provides little on both ends. RoMo has nobody over 6'9" or 220lbs. So while each of these teams could give us trouble by spreading the floor, neither team should be able to handle us at all on the other end. We need to exploit that advantage with Okafor and with Winslow as much as possible.

Kedsy
03-16-2015, 12:55 PM
The problems for any #16 seed against Duke -- or even a #12 seed masquerading as a #16 seed -- are the match-ups against Okafor and Winslow. The size, footwork and touch of Jahlil and the speed, power and brute strength of Justice will be almost impossible to stop.

I agree. In this game, no matter which opponent we get, the enemy to be vanquished is Duke's own readiness. If we come out strong and knock them back early, we should be able to ride it to a fairly big win. If we come out flat and let them get out to a lead in the first 10 minutes, then it's another one of those back-and-forth, hope we keep our poise in the second half games. I'm obviously hoping for the former.

JohnJ
03-16-2015, 04:02 PM
Outside of Quinn Cook and Amile Jefferson, our guys have played a whopping 8 total minutes of NCAA tournament action in their careers combined. EIGHT! It is not often that Duke goes into a first-weekend tournament game without a decided advantage in NCAA tournament experience. But if Robert Morris wins that will be the case for our first game. And if we're lucky enough to win that one (and if San Diego State wins), it will be true on Sunday as well. Obviously we know that the four freshmen have no experience in the NCAA tournament. But 6 of our 8 players have basically not played at all in the NCAA tournament. Will jitters be an issue?

The same thing was said before the season about our freshmen never having played a minute of college ball and needing time to adjust the the college game. But 3 of 4 of them were REALLY good from the moment they stepped on the court.

I'm not worried about out first game.

Bob Green
03-16-2015, 04:33 PM
I agree. In this game, no matter which opponent we get, the enemy to be vanquished is Duke's own readiness.

The tournament has been described as three two-game tournaments. In the first two-game tournament, we will win and advance to the second two-game tournament, as long as we are focused and ready to take care of business. With the slow start against Notre Dame as the exception, Duke has been playing really solid basketball for six weeks. Hopefully the slow start against Notre Dame serves as a wake up call.

Dukehky
03-17-2015, 10:24 AM
Read a Season is a Lifetime.

It will make you feel better. K knows what's going on.

DukieInKansas
03-17-2015, 10:49 AM
I'm not sure I totally get the weauf god thing, but after the glee I took in KY losing to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT a few years ago, I worry about that potential match up. So, dear weauf gods, please accept my apology for any glee I felt on that occasion. May the Blue Devils come out strong and fierce and ready against any and all opponents on Friday and for the potential 5 games after that. Amen.

oldnavy
03-17-2015, 11:14 AM
When and where will the open practice times for Charlotte be announced?

I did a quick search of goduke.com but I couldn't find anything.

FerryFor50
03-17-2015, 11:18 AM
I'm not sure I totally get the weauf god thing, but after the glee I took in KY losing to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT a few years ago, I worry about that potential match up. So, dear weauf gods, please accept my apology for any glee I felt on that occasion. May the Blue Devils come out strong and fierce and ready against any and all opponents on Friday and for the potential 5 games after that. Amen.

The weauf gods make exceptions for Kentucky and UNC. It's in the Weauf Bible.

Indoor66
03-17-2015, 03:23 PM
The weauf gods make exceptions for Kentucky and UNC. It's in the Weauf Bible.

I could not spork you but you have been inspired to bring a higher truth to the following.

oldnavy
03-17-2015, 08:52 PM
When and where will the open practice times for Charlotte be announced?

I did a quick search of goduke.com but I couldn't find anything.

Found this: http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/Dukes-open-practice-scheduled-for-Thursday-in-Charlotte-36226205

4:25 - 5:05

OldPhiKap
03-17-2015, 09:05 PM
REALLY REALLY REALLY recommend everyone watch today's press conferences by K,cQuinn, Tyus and Jahlil on goduke.com app if you gave access. Too much good stuff to summarize.

Kick arse. Go Duke! Love this team.

gofurman
03-17-2015, 10:06 PM
REALLY REALLY REALLY recommend everyone watch today's press conferences by K,cQuinn, Tyus and Jahlil on goduke.com app if you gave access. Too much good stuff to summarize.

Kick arse. Go Duke! Love this team.


Kinda cool that we can all watch and post scouting notes after tomorrow's game - not just stats but actual eyeball test of these two going at it. That will be nice. Pulling for romo. I think....lol

* so they both shoot a lot of threes but does either have a lot of quick small guard penetration? IE, Miami, Lehigh, VCU orsomeone you just can't stay in front of? That's my concern. And yes, I know Duke should win this.

It shouldn't be harder than 12 seed Wofford we played where Okafor killed but these past few yrs we have had some early exit stinkers. Take nobody lightly. This is what we have been playing for! If we lose that's horrible, esp w Quinn and Amile etc who should be begging for all out effort. But if after the first half v Notre Dame and some guys maybe leaving for the nba (so this is their only NCAA) we better see all out effort. Losing is horrible. But losing w slack effort like we just played would be beyond comprehension.

Hit em in the mouth. Hit em hard. Hit em often.

moonpie23
03-17-2015, 10:49 PM
Hit em in the mouth. Hit em hard. Hit em often.

i can't agree with this any more strongly........it makes me feel weird when so many here are talking about other teams down the road and how me might match up with them....


we'd better not take anyone lightly....

elvis14
03-17-2015, 10:58 PM
i can't agree with this any more strongly........it makes me feel weird when so many here are talking about other teams down the road and how me might match up with them....


we'd better not take anyone lightly....

After the last couple of years, I just want to win on Friday. If that happens then I'll worry about who we play on Sunday. That Notre Dame game was a stark reminder of how one bad game, one bad half even, can end your run in a tournament.

Troublemaker
03-18-2015, 12:08 AM
Kinda cool that we can all watch and post scouting notes after tomorrow's game - not just stats but actual eyeball test of these two going at it. That will be nice. Pulling for romo. I think....lol

Here's a highlight package of UNF's run through the A-Sun tourney: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJXHLAYhoLo

Maybe that will help you get a sense of them with your eyeballs. Unfortunately, RMU has no equivalent presence on youtube.



* so they both shoot a lot of threes but does either have a lot of quick small guard penetration? IE, Miami, Lehigh, VCU orsomeone you just can't stay in front of? That's my concern. And yes, I know Duke should win this.

Dallas Moore is UNF's best guard. He can both shoot and drive effectively. You can see a lot of him in this highlight package against 2nd-place A-Sun team and former Cinderella Florida Gulf Coast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpSa3SDv4e8

jv001
03-18-2015, 08:27 AM
Kinda cool that we can all watch and post scouting notes after tomorrow's game - not just stats but actual eyeball test of these two going at it. That will be nice. Pulling for romo. I think....lol

* so they both shoot a lot of threes but does either have a lot of quick small guard penetration? IE, Miami, Lehigh, VCU orsomeone you just can't stay in front of? That's my concern. And yes, I know Duke should win this.

It shouldn't be harder than 12 seed Wofford we played where Okafor killed but these past few yrs we have had some early exit stinkers. Take nobody lightly. This is what we have been playing for! If we lose that's horrible, esp w Quinn and Amile etc who should be begging for all out effort. But if after the first half v Notre Dame and some guys maybe leaving for the nba (so this is their only NCAA) we better see all out effort. Losing is horrible. But losing w slack effort like we just played would be beyond comprehension.

Hit em in the mouth. Hit em hard. Hit em often.

This^. I've said all season that we should come out really fired up and hit the opponent with everything we've got. That means no turnovers, inside outside offense while moving the ball quickly and most important good team defense. When we play like this, the opponent quickly loses confidence. Don't let the other team think they have a chance. I've watched games this year where Quinn is quick to extend his hand to an opponent that has hit the floor. I thought to myself, now that's a good sport. But the more I think about it, I don't know if that's a good idea. I've watched Justise and Grayson just straddle right over the prone player and go about his business. Maybe this is the attitude to have. The "Take no Prisoners" attitude. I don't want any Duke player to play dirty but I do want every player to play hard and tough every play. I'm hoping our Coaching staff and our Captains have this team ready to go by Friday and every player does not take a play off during the entire tournament. GoDuke!

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-18-2015, 08:41 AM
This^. I've said all season that we should come out really fired up and hit the opponent with everything we've got. That means no turnovers, inside outside offense while moving the ball quickly and most important good team defense. When we play like this, the opponent quickly loses confidence. Don't let the other team think they have a chance. I've watched games this year where Quinn is quick to extend his hand to an opponent that has hit the floor. I thought to myself, now that's a good sport. But the more I think about it, I don't know if that's a good idea. I've watched Justise and Grayson just straddle right over the prone player and go about his business. Maybe this is the attitude to have. The "Take no Prisoners" attitude. I don't want any Duke player to play dirty but I do want every player to play hard and tough every play. I'm hoping our Coaching staff and our Captains have this team ready to go by Friday and every player does not take a play off during the entire tournament. GoDuke!


In all fairness, Quinn has been here 4 years and is about as solid and consistent of a player in the league. Not only do our young players look up to him but he probably has a lot of respect from opponents as well. Hes basically a man now playing against some kids. So when he extends a hand to help someone up from the other team, I think that is more of him saying, "look kid, I am destroying you but I am still cool enough to help you up when you are down." As our freshman's mindset is probably more cut throat trying to gain respect. They don't want to do anything that might make them seem weak. Quinn can get away with it because everyone knows his worth at this point.

However, I do like when our guys are relentless, and If Justice dunks on someone, I feel like he should let that someone know that he got dunked on. Especially once we get into the ladder rounds, because we all know our opponents are going to rub in everything they can. Think of all the celebrations, and the taunting after big plays in the years we were upset. I remember when we lost to VCU and the camera panned to a kid saying "what now ACC" and then swearing about Duke in an unkind manner.

jv001
03-18-2015, 03:29 PM
In all fairness, Quinn has been here 4 years and is about as solid and consistent of a player in the league. Not only do our young players look up to him but he probably has a lot of respect from opponents as well. Hes basically a man now playing against some kids. So when he extends a hand to help someone up from the other team, I think that is more of him saying, "look kid, I am destroying you but I am still cool enough to help you up when you are down." As our freshman's mindset is probably more cut throat trying to gain respect. They don't want to do anything that might make them seem weak. Quinn can get away with it because everyone knows his worth at this point.

However, I do like when our guys are relentless, and If Justice dunks on someone, I feel like he should let that someone know that he got dunked on. Especially once we get into the ladder rounds, because we all know our opponents are going to rub in everything they can. Think of all the celebrations, and the taunting after big plays in the years we were upset. I remember when we lost to VCU and the camera panned to a kid saying "what now ACC" and then swearing about Duke in an unkind manner.

I believe Quinn reacts the way he does is because he knows many of the players we compete against. He's played against them in high school, AAU and now college. Like you said he's a four year guy. As Captain, he has to walk the fine line when it comes to this type stuff. My main point is I want to see the players come out focused on stomping the other team into the court. Well, maybe not like Christian did, but close. :cool: GoDuke!

rsvman
03-18-2015, 03:41 PM
Here's a highlight package of UNF's run through the A-Sun tourney: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJXHLAYhoLo

Maybe that will help you get a sense of them with your eyeballs. Unfortunately, RMU has no equivalent presence on youtube.



Dallas Moore is UNF's best guard. He can both shoot and drive effectively. You can see a lot of him in this highlight package against 2nd-place A-Sun team and former Cinderella Florida Gulf Coast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpSa3SDv4e8

This Dallas Moore guy looks like a baller. Good left-handed outside shot, but also with some decent drive moves, etc. They have several guys who can shoot it pretty well. I don't think NF would be a walk in the park opponent.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-18-2015, 03:45 PM
I believe Quinn reacts the way he does is because he knows many of the players we compete against. He's played against them in high school, AAU and now college. Like you said he's a four year guy. As Captain, he has to walk the fine line when it comes to this type stuff. My main point is I want to see the players come out focused on stomping the other team into the court. Well, maybe not like Christian did, but close. :cool: GoDuke!

If someone stomps on an opponent, and it yields the same results then I am ok with it :)

pfrduke
03-18-2015, 09:05 PM
So, we play the Robert Morris Colonials. Tonight's victory over North Florida was their best victory of the season (not just because it's a tournament game - North Florida is the highest ranked opponent they've defeated all year and they have a grand total of 5(!) victories against teams in the top 200). The Colonials did play some decent teams close in the non-conference season - a loss at Clemson by 7, at Georgetown by 14 - but they also got absolutely killed by the Heels in Chapel Hill and lost by 26 to Toledo.

The Colonials do one thing well on offense (tonight's performance notwithstanding) - shoot 3s - and one thing well on defense - force turnovers. But they are sloppy with the ball themselves (tonight's performance also notwithstanding) and are a terrible rebounding team. They're a very small team - the biggest guy on the floor for ~ half the game will probably be 6'8", 210. So a steady and early dose of Okafor is called for (hey, look at me, the smart guy suggesting we should try to get our best offensive player the ball). Robert Morris will try to zone to make the inside game a little more difficult, but that just gives opportunities for offensive rebounders to get on the glass and for Okafor to pass out of double and triple teams to open shooters.

These guys don't have the profile of a team likely to pull the upset - North Florida was a little more in that mode given their spread and shoot offense and high(ish) profile non-conference win. If we take care of the ball and get it inside on offense, they really should not be able to slow us down (knocking very, very firmly on wood - '12 and '14 will have me paranoid about all first-round matchups for a little while).

MChambers
03-18-2015, 09:20 PM
So, we play the Robert Morris Colonials. Tonight's victory over North Florida was their best victory of the season (not just because it's a tournament game - North Florida is the highest ranked opponent they've defeated all year and they have a grand total of 5(!) victories against teams in the top 200). The Colonials did play some decent teams close in the non-conference season - a loss at Clemson by 7, at Georgetown by 14 - but they also got absolutely killed by the Heels in Chapel Hill and lost by 26 to Toledo.

The Colonials do one thing well on offense (tonight's performance notwithstanding) - shoot 3s - and one thing well on defense - force turnovers. But they are sloppy with the ball themselves (tonight's performance also notwithstanding) and are a terrible rebounding team. They're a very small team - the biggest guy on the floor for ~ half the game will probably be 6'8", 210. So a steady and early dose of Okafor is called for (hey, look at me, the smart guy suggesting we should try to get our best offensive player the ball). Robert Morris will try to zone to make the inside game a little more difficult, but that just gives opportunities for offensive rebounders to get on the glass and for Okafor to pass out of double and triple teams to open shooters.

These guys don't have the profile of a team likely to pull the upset - North Florida was a little more in that mode given their spread and shoot offense and high(ish) profile non-conference win. If we take care of the ball and get it inside on offense, they really should not be able to slow us down (knocking very, very firmly on wood - '12 and '14 will have me paranoid about all first-round matchups for a little while).

Haven't you read all those NBA threads? Low post scoring is overrated! Okafor shouldn't touch the ball!

MarkD83
03-18-2015, 09:25 PM
Haven't you read all those NBA threads? Low post scoring is overrated! Okafor shouldn't touch the ball!

Well Duke is doomed because with Wojo no longer on the staff we no longer have a big man coach.

gofurman
03-18-2015, 09:29 PM
Scouting Romo
Pros
Appears romo (Robert Morris) can shoot the 3- the fact they beat unf without a good 3 ball night speaks well for them.
They caused a ton of turnovers against UNF. good at stealing the ball and in passing lanes
They had some strong drives and got to the rim (that's my worry)

Cons
They don't look big or able to rebound well. Unf beat them on the glass. We should own the glass


I think we just need to bother the 3 ball and - more importantly - keep them out of the paint. And by out of the paint I mean not able to drive. If this means zone or sagging off the shooter a little them fine. We only lose these games (CJ McCollum) when someone breaks us down and gets to the rim. Zone, sag, whatever. Just don't overplay and let them drive to the hoop. They had some nice passes by their gds once they drove into the paint and past the perimiter d.

Agree? Disagree? Thoughts? Thanks. Interested in others opinions

Troublemaker
03-18-2015, 09:30 PM
You could see why RMU forces so many turnovers on the season with that active, gambling zone that brings their wings all the way up to help on the perimeter. Kind of like how Syracuse plays it, actually, and the Orange force a lot of turnovers, too. Duke turned the ball over a bunch against Cuse's zone this season but we still scored well in both games against them. I think we'll turn the ball over MUCH less against RMU because they're not as long as 'Cuse and because we benefit from the experience of having played 'Cuse twice. RMU probably can't beat Duke unless they force 17+ turnovers from our players.

On the other end of the court, zone could work. If we go man, matchups will probably be Quinn on Reed (RMU's high usage freshman 2-guard), Matt on Pryor (6-5 shooter), Justise on Lucky (6-6 scorer), and Tyus playing off Kavon Stewart to contain his dribble penetration. Hopefully Tate (the 6-5, 230-lb non-scoring bruiser) plays a lot so Jahlil can just stand around the basket and help on drivers.

dukelifer
03-18-2015, 09:32 PM
Scouting Romo
Pros
Appears romo (Robert Morris) can shoot the 3- the fact they beat unf without a good 3 ball night speaks well for them.
They caused a ton of turnovers against UNF. good at stealing the ball and in passing lanes
They had some strong drives and got to the rim (that's my worry)

Cons
They don't look big or able to rebound well. Unf beat them on the glass. We should own the glass


I think we just need to bother the 3 ball and - more importantly - keep them out of the paint. And by out of the paint I mean not able to drive. If this means zone or sagging off the shooter a little them fine. We only lose these games (CJ McCollum) when someone breaks us down and gets to the rim. Zone, sag, whatever. Just don't overplay and let them drive to the hoop. They had some nice passes by their gds once they drove into the paint and past the perimiter d.

Agree? Disagree? Thoughts? Thanks. Interested in others opinions
Go up by 25 in the first half and coast to a win. Need to get up big and break their will early.

gocanes0506
03-18-2015, 09:38 PM
I expect we'll see a lot of zone. I think 3-2 might be the best.

Their guards are real quick. They are the type of guards that give the D fits because they will break down the D quickly. Also their big man is a swing forward. Having the big Oak outside the 3 guarding isnt a good thing.

The O should be beat it up inside. Its bad if Oak doesnt touch the ball at least 3/4 of the possessions he is in the game. Their big man weighs about 180Lbs, again a swing forward. Oak just cant throw his weight into the big man to get better position. The defender will fold and a charge will probably be called. Marshall should even get some real quality touches in there.

Im not overly worried about Robert Morris winning because of their prior schedule and the fact that UNF had 19 TOs and RM only won by 4.

dukelifer
03-18-2015, 09:47 PM
I expect we'll see a lot of zone. I think 3-2 might be the best.

Their guards are real quick. They are the type of guards that give the D fits because they will break down the D quickly. Also their big man is a swing forward. Having the big Oak outside the 3 guarding isnt a good thing.

The O should be beat it up inside. Its bad if Oak doesnt touch the ball at least 3/4 of the possessions he is in the game. Their big man weighs about 180Lbs, again a swing forward. Oak just cant throw his weight into the big man to get better position. The defender will fold and a charge will probably be called. Marshall should even get some real quality touches in there.

Im not overly worried about Robert Morris winning because of their prior schedule and the fact that UNF had 19 TOs and RM only won by 4.
I don't understand why this team is not undefeated- they shoot the 3- they drive at will - and they turn teams over. Duke looks to have their hands full with this team.

NYBri
03-18-2015, 09:48 PM
I'm not concerned about RM ... or any other team we may or may not play. I'm looking forward to seeing how well we focus on Friday. That's my main concern, because if we focus and play like we are capable, we will be cutting down the nets in Indy....regardless of who we play.

Kedsy
03-18-2015, 10:05 PM
I don't understand why this team is not undefeated- they shoot the 3- they drive at will - and they turn teams over. Duke looks to have their hands full with this team.

Yeah, people do seem to be going a bit overboard, as you point out. And I get why people are skittish here. But here are some pre-Tournament Pomeroy rankings:

2012 Lehigh: #86 overall; #81 offense, #102 defense;

2014 Mercer: #99 overall; #116 offense, #103 defense;

2015 Robert Morris: #173 overall; #191 offense, #169 defense.

Now, I'm not saying they don't need to play the game or anything -- Robert Morris is a little higher rated than Virginia Tech, a team that took Duke to OT -- but I am saying this opponent isn't nearly as good as either of the teams who upset us recently in the NCAAT (both of which were top 100 teams). And also, I think this Duke team is a bit better than both the 2012 Duke team and the 2014 Duke team:

2012 Duke: #17 overall; #9 offense, #62 defense;

2014 Duke: #7 overall; #2 offense, #102 defense;

2015 Duke: #7 overall; #3 offense, #56 defense.

OldPhiKap
03-18-2015, 10:09 PM
Yeah, people do seem to be going a bit overboard, as you point out. And I get why people are skittish here. But here are some pre-Tournament Pomeroy rankings:

2012 Lehigh: #86 overall; #81 offense, #102 defense;

2014 Mercer: #99 overall; #116 offense, #103 defense;

2015 Robert Morris: #173 overall; #191 offense, #169 defense.

Now, I'm not saying they don't need to play the game or anything -- Robert Morris is a little higher rated than Virginia Tech, a team that took Duke to OT -- but I am saying this opponent isn't nearly as good as either of the teams who upset us recently in the NCAAT (both of which were top 100 teams). And also, I think this Duke team is a bit better than both the 2012 Duke team and the 2014 Duke team:

2012 Duke: #17 overall; #9 offense, #62 defense;

2014 Duke: #7 overall; #2 offense, #102 defense;

2015 Duke: #7 overall; #3 offense, #56 defense.


2012 and 2014 also had an alarming lack of Tyus Jones.

SCMatt33
03-18-2015, 10:13 PM
The other thing to remember is that while Robert Morris shoots the 3 well, they're not a 3 point happy offense. They only take about 30% of their field goal attempts from outside the arc, well in the bottom half of DI, so much of their high percentage can be attributed to being picky with the threes that they shoot. If Duke is pressing out on their guards, they'll try to beat us by getting into the lane and shooting floaters over Jah, not from the three point line.

gofurman
03-18-2015, 10:13 PM
I'm not concerned about RM ... or any other team we may or may not play. I'm looking forward to seeing how well we focus on Friday. That's my main concern, because if we focus and play like we are capable, we will be cutting down the nets in Indy....regardless of who we play.

I get this. But it's fun to scout as a fan and the last few years have been torture in the post season. Take nothing for granted

devildeac
03-18-2015, 10:13 PM
2012 and 2014 also had an alarming lack of Tyus Jones.

Ok(afor).

subzero02
03-18-2015, 10:19 PM
Robert Morris called us out on twitter... It's on.

OldPhiKap
03-18-2015, 10:22 PM
Robert Morris called us out on twitter... It's on.

That's how the Peloponnesian War started. Not a good call-out IMHO.

#SuckItAthens #SpartaStinks

mattman91
03-18-2015, 10:25 PM
Robert Morris called us out on twitter... It's on.

Who does he play for?










:rolleyes:

weezie
03-18-2015, 10:26 PM
I am just a small-town pizza lawyer:D

That made me laugh, too.

weezie
03-18-2015, 10:31 PM
Robert Morris called us out on twitter... It's on.

Uh oh.

Release the hounds!

Faustus
03-18-2015, 10:48 PM
Robert Morris was extremey wealthy and pretty much bankrolled the American Revolution with financial deals. They later bit him in the a** however, I think big speculations in French finances ruined him during the French Revolution. He was immensely fat, and I don't think could go to his left. I would expect the smart money would be with Buck Duke, who held onto his money much better.

rsvman
03-18-2015, 11:20 PM
Contain the quick guard and rebound well and we win this game. Go to Okafor early and often and stay out of foul trouble.
Looking forward to a good game with a lot of energy from our guys.

gumbomoop
03-18-2015, 11:46 PM
I expect we'll see a lot of zone. I think 3-2 might be the best.

Their guards are real quick. They are the type of guards that give the D fits because they will break down the D quickly. Also their big man is a swing forward. Having the big Oak outside the 3 guarding isnt a good thing.

The O should be beat it up inside. Its bad if Oak doesnt touch the ball at least 3/4 of the possessions he is in the game.

I hope to see lots of 3-2 zone, at the very least as changeup from m2m, and preferably a lot of the game. I see no reason Duke needs 3 under to rebound against this team. Jahlil, Marshall, and Justise must absolutely control the boards, at both ends. RoMo should get virtually no O-rebounds. Hope Amile plays a fair amount, and is up top of such a 3-2 setup.

Agree that O must consistently go through Jahlil. RoMo must double him, so his passing out of double will be key, as will be cutters -- Amile and Justise especially -- and 3-bomb accuracy.

Play relentlessly, energetically, as much on D as on O. I would like it if Duke more than RoMo is the team showing spirit.

NSDukeFan
03-18-2015, 11:54 PM
I don't understand why this team is not undefeated- they shoot the 3- they drive at will - and they turn teams over. Duke looks to have their hands full with this team.
Should Duke concede?

Yeah, people do seem to be going a bit overboard, as you point out. And I get why people are skittish here. But here are some pre-Tournament Pomeroy rankings:

2012 Lehigh: #86 overall; #81 offense, #102 defense;

2014 Mercer: #99 overall; #116 offense, #103 defense;

2015 Robert Morris: #173 overall; #191 offense, #169 defense.

Now, I'm not saying they don't need to play the game or anything -- Robert Morris is a little higher rated than Virginia Tech, a team that took Duke to OT -- but I am saying this opponent isn't nearly as good as either of the teams who upset us recently in the NCAAT (both of which were top 100 teams). And also, I think this Duke team is a bit better than both the 2012 Duke team and the 2014 Duke team:

2012 Duke: #17 overall; #9 offense, #62 defense;

2014 Duke: #7 overall; #2 offense, #102 defense;

2015 Duke: #7 overall; #3 offense, #56 defense.

Maybe Duke will play the game, just in case?

Henderson
03-19-2015, 12:04 AM
Do people really refer to the school as Bobby Mo? It's got kind of a cool sound to it.

No No, Bobby Mo.

subzero02
03-19-2015, 12:16 AM
Do people really refer to the school as Bobby Mo? It's got kind of a cool sound to it.

No No, Bobby Mo.

Hopefully it will still sound cool at 11pm on Friday night.

gumbomoop
03-19-2015, 01:44 AM
I didn't see the lead-in to the RMU-NFla game, so I don't know whether this suspension was mentioned. Anyhow, RMU does have a tall sub, Stephan Bennett, who was suspended for RMU's conference final plus the NFla game. He played 18 mpg during season, not big scorer or rebounder, but tall. I guess it's unlikely he's back by Friday night, unclear.

http://triblive.com/sports/college/robertmorris/8002737-74/bennett-court-documents#axzz3Uo5GyOc5

dukelifer
03-19-2015, 06:38 AM
Yeah, people do seem to be going a bit overboard, as you point out. And I get why people are skittish here. But here are some pre-Tournament Pomeroy rankings:

2012 Lehigh: #86 overall; #81 offense, #102 defense;

2014 Mercer: #99 overall; #116 offense, #103 defense;

2015 Robert Morris: #173 overall; #191 offense, #169 defense.

Now, I'm not saying they don't need to play the game or anything -- Robert Morris is a little higher rated than Virginia Tech, a team that took Duke to OT -- but I am saying this opponent isn't nearly as good as either of the teams who upset us recently in the NCAAT (both of which were top 100 teams). And also, I think this Duke team is a bit better than both the 2012 Duke team and the 2014 Duke team:

2012 Duke: #17 overall; #9 offense, #62 defense;

2014 Duke: #7 overall; #2 offense, #102 defense;

2015 Duke: #7 overall; #3 offense, #56 defense.
I am less worried about Robert Morris's O than I am of Duke's D and the team's tendency to play to the level of the opponent. Oh how I long for those Duke teams that hung their hats on defense. I think if this team can keep its focus and get Cook to feel confident with his shot again-they should be okay.

flyingdutchdevil
03-19-2015, 09:34 AM
I am less worried about Robert Morris's O than I am of Duke's D and the team's tendency to play to the level of the opponent. Oh how I long for those Duke teams that hung their hats on defense. I think if this team can keep its focus and get Cook to feel confident with his shot again-they should be okay.

I completely agree with this. However, I generally never watch 1-16 matchups due to the plethora of other amazing games today and tomorrow. This game will be no exception (also, I have a work party I can't miss. But if they have TVs, it'll be tough to look away). But I'll be cheering on Duke in my #2 jersey on Sunday, sipping delicious beer in Fenway.

FerryFor50
03-19-2015, 10:09 AM
I completely agree with this. However, I generally never watch 1-16 matchups due to the plethora of other amazing games today and tomorrow. This game will be no exception (also, I have a work party I can't miss. But if they have TVs, it'll be tough to look away). But I'll be cheering on Duke in my #2 jersey on Sunday, sipping delicious beer in Fenway.

Let's see... how did Duke do against teams like Robert Morris this season.

RM was #172 in kenpom. 187 on offense, 168 on defense.

Wofford was 92 in kenpom. Duke won by 29.
Toledo was 91. Duke won by 27.
BC was 111 in. Duke won by 23.
Pitt was 84. Duke won by 14.
GT was 93. Duke won by 6.
FSU was 106. Duke won by 3.
Clemson was 88. Duke won by 22.
VT was 189. Duke won by 5 in OT.
Wake was 127. Duke won by 8 and then 43.

Really not seeing the "tendency" to play down to the opponents' level, outside of the nail-biters against FSU and VT and maybe the GT game. But what I noticed in those games was the tendency for teams that played Duke closely to shoot out of their minds. And those were mostly ACC teams, where every team knows the others intimately and anything can happen on any given night.

Troublemaker
03-19-2015, 10:18 AM
I didn't see the lead-in to the RMU-NFla game, so I don't know whether this suspension was mentioned. Anyhow, RMU does have a tall sub, Stephan Bennett, who was suspended for RMU's conference final plus the NFla game. He played 18 mpg during season, not big scorer or rebounder, but tall. I guess it's unlikely he's back by Friday night, unclear.

http://triblive.com/sports/college/robertmorris/8002737-74/bennett-court-documents#axzz3Uo5GyOc5

I hope he plays. He seems like a bad basketball player that will just clog the middle for RMU's scoring guards. Bennett doesn't stretch the floor (only 10 3PAs all season), he shoots 2-pters at a 41% clip, he doesn't protect the basket, and he has a laughable defensive rebounding rate (7.2%) for a 6'9" player.

sagegrouse
03-19-2015, 10:30 AM
I expect Robert Morris to swarm Jahlil. I mean, really. There tallest regulars are 6-5 and 6-6 and there's a 6-8 freshman (Elijah Minnie) who weighs 210 pounds. This could look like a remake of Gulliver's Travels. Okafor will need to get really good position or do a great job of passing out of a double team.

We will need to control RM's quick guards and get good guard play ourselves.

And what the heck is RM gonna do with Justise Winslow if it double-teams Okafor?

FerryFor50
03-19-2015, 10:34 AM
Some more fun facts about RM.

Here are Duke and RM's common opponents and what each did against them.

UNC
RM lost 103-59
Duke beat them twice (92-90 and 84-77)

Clemson
RM lost 64-57
Duke won 78-56

Toledo
RM lost 83-57
Duke won 86-69


RM also lost to NCAA tournament teams: Georgetown, Lafayette (16 seed... lost by 27), Buffalo (think Hurley doesn't have a scouting report to deliver to K?)

60's Devil
03-19-2015, 10:41 AM
Looks like cbs is covering Purdue/Cincinatti. What to do?

Troublemaker
03-19-2015, 10:45 AM
Just did some boxscore math.

How often have RMU's Stewart (the quick little PG), Reed (the talented freshman 2-guard scorer), Pryor (the sweet-shooting lefty wing), and Lucky Jones (talented senior 6th-man scoring wing) shared the court over the past 5 games?

Well, over the past 5 games, they've played 2 min, 1 min, 5 min, 1 min, and finally 11 minutes together versus UNF.

Hopefully those 11 minutes don't signify a new trend for RMU to play those guys together. For most of the season, they've just been rotating those 4 players among the 3 perimeter spots. It's a terrific 4-man perimeter rotation, don't get me wrong, but I think they'd be a little bit scarier if those four got to play together more often alongside Minnie (the athletic 6'8" forward that can shoot threes). At least offensively, they'd be scarier. Maybe RMU doesn't do it because it compromises their matchup zone somehow.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-19-2015, 10:45 AM
Looks like cbs is covering Purdue/Cincinatti. What to do?

Youre looking at Thursdays game my friend, Dukes game is on Friday on that same channel and time slot.

flyingdutchdevil
03-19-2015, 11:31 AM
Let's see... how did Duke do against teams like Robert Morris this season.

RM was #172 in kenpom. 187 on offense, 168 on defense.

Wofford was 92 in kenpom. Duke won by 29.
Toledo was 91. Duke won by 27.
BC was 111 in. Duke won by 23.
Pitt was 84. Duke won by 14.
GT was 93. Duke won by 6.
FSU was 106. Duke won by 3.
Clemson was 88. Duke won by 22.
VT was 189. Duke won by 5 in OT.
Wake was 127. Duke won by 8 and then 43.

Really not seeing the "tendency" to play down to the opponents' level, outside of the nail-biters against FSU and VT and maybe the GT game. But what I noticed in those games was the tendency for teams that played Duke closely to shoot out of their minds. And those were mostly ACC teams, where every team knows the others intimately and anything can happen on any given night.

And I attribute that to poor defense as much as great offensive execution. When UVa plays great D and holds the opposition to a final score that is within their season average, we call that great D. When Duke plays a mediocre opponent close and that opponent plays well, we call that team shooting their minds out. It's also called bad D.

Duke has gotten better defensively. IMO, we are still somewhere between mediocre/okay, and not the "good" that we need. Hopefully, with plenty of rest (a solid week) and some fine tuning, we can get there.

sagegrouse
03-19-2015, 11:33 AM
I expect Robert Morris to swarm Jahlil. I mean, really. There tallest regulars are 6-5 and 6-6 and there's a 6-8 freshman (Elijah Minnie) who weighs 210 pounds. This could look like a remake of Gulliver's Travels. Okafor will need to get really good position or do a great job of passing out of a double team.

We will need to control RM's quick guards and get good guard play ourselves.

And what the heck is RM gonna do with Justise Winslow if it double-teams Okafor?

Hay-sus!!! The grammar police need to arrest me! I meant "Their."

subzero02
03-19-2015, 11:48 AM
Duke opened as 22 point favorites with an o/u of 144. Since the open, the line has crept slightly in Duke's direction.

dukelifer
03-19-2015, 11:51 AM
Let's see... how did Duke do against teams like Robert Morris this season.

RM was #172 in kenpom. 187 on offense, 168 on defense.

Wofford was 92 in kenpom. Duke won by 29.
Toledo was 91. Duke won by 27.
BC was 111 in. Duke won by 23.
Pitt was 84. Duke won by 14.
GT was 93. Duke won by 6.
FSU was 106. Duke won by 3.
Clemson was 88. Duke won by 22.
VT was 189. Duke won by 5 in OT.
Wake was 127. Duke won by 8 and then 43.

Really not seeing the "tendency" to play down to the opponents' level, outside of the nail-biters against FSU and VT and maybe the GT game. But what I noticed in those games was the tendency for teams that played Duke closely to shoot out of their minds. And those were mostly ACC teams, where every team knows the others intimately and anything can happen on any given night.

Duke lost 4 times but only to 3 opponents. In the first ND game - Duke was leading by 1 with 3:48 to play and did not play well down the stretch. In the losses against NC State and Miami- Duke was close at the half and then played very poorly in a stretch in the second half. Since the two early losses- this team played very well in tight games - usually with Jones and Cook taking over. The tourney is about guard play. In the last ND game- Tyus and Quinn were 2-13 from 3. That cannot happen in this tourney. If the two guards play/shoot well- it will be hard to beat Duke.

Listen to Quants
03-19-2015, 11:53 AM
Just did some boxscore math.

How often have RMU's Stewart (the quick little PG), Reed (the talented freshman 2-guard scorer), Pryor (the sweet-shooting lefty wing), and Lucky Jones (talented senior 6th-man scoring wing) shared the court over the past 5 games?

Well, over the past 5 games, they've played 2 min, 1 min, 5 min, 1 min, and finally 11 minutes together versus UNF.

Hopefully those 11 minutes don't signify a new trend for RMU to play those guys together. For most of the season, they've just been rotating those 4 players among the 3 perimeter spots. It's a terrific 4-man perimeter rotation, don't get me wrong, but I think they'd be a little bit scarier if those four got to play together more often alongside Minnie (the athletic 6'8" forward that can shoot threes). At least offensively, they'd be scarier. Maybe RMU doesn't do it because it compromises their matchup zone somehow.

I hope you are right about that lineup compromising their zone, or at least the coach believing it does. If they rotate 'em because they need rest, then the long time-outs and half-times of the Tournament might allow them all the rest they need even all playing 35-40 min. Now I've got something else to worry about. Glad to see you living up to your screen name.

duke09hms
03-19-2015, 12:22 PM
If we don't win in a blow-out, that pretty much scuttles our chances for a Final Four run. Have we ever had a title team or Final Four team struggle to put away a first round opponent? Off the top of my head I recall the 2010 team crushing UAPB handily.

Troublemaker
03-19-2015, 12:26 PM
If we don't win in a blow-out, that pretty much scuttles our chances for a Final Four run. Have we ever had a title team or Final Four team struggle to put away a first round opponent? Off the top of my head I recall the 2010 team crushing UAPB handily.

'86

And that was an experienced, tough-as-nails team. Almost lost to a 16 seed.

duke09hms
03-19-2015, 12:34 PM
'86

And that was an experienced, tough-as-nails team. Almost lost to a 16 seed.

Ah, I see it now, 85-78, close game. 1 out of 11 of K's Final Fours, still doesn't bode well.

Kedsy
03-19-2015, 12:39 PM
If we don't win in a blow-out, that pretty much scuttles our chances for a Final Four run. Have we ever had a title team or Final Four team struggle to put away a first round opponent? Off the top of my head I recall the 2010 team crushing UAPB handily.

Why would you think anything is "scuttled" based on a few past data points? Especially when those few data points don't even support your assertion:

1986: Duke 85, Mississippi Valley State 78;
1988: Duke 85, Boston U 69;
1994: Duke 82, Texas Southern 70.

Also, I'd like to point out that of last season's two finalists, UConn won their first round game in overtime and Kentucky won by 7.

Troublemaker
03-19-2015, 12:39 PM
'88 only won by 16 in the first round.

'94 only won by 12 in the first round.

It's just not a great indicator

ETA: Damn your fast fingers, Kedsy.

duke09hms
03-19-2015, 12:49 PM
Why would you think anything is "scuttled" based on a few past data points? Especially when those few data points don't even support your assertion:

1986: Duke 85, Mississippi Valley State 78;
1988: Duke 85, Boston U 69;
1994: Duke 82, Texas Southern 70.

Also, I'd like to point out that of last season's two finalists, UConn won their first round game in overtime and Kentucky won by 7.

A win by 16 is pretty close to a blowout, and even a 12-pt margin is quite comfortable given we likely led by much more and put in the bench at the end. Hard to know without a game log.

Given only 1 of K's 11 Final Four teams had a close (single-digit) first-round win, it's highly unlikely that if we struggle on Friday, a Final Four is in store. I'd still reckon the predictive power of the first round game is high for attaining the Final Four.

If the term "blowout" is too strong for you, then perhaps "comfortable win" will do.

BigZ
03-19-2015, 01:12 PM
I just remembered my college roommate's date is either the chancellor or Dean of Robert Morris.

BigZ
03-19-2015, 01:15 PM
Why would you think anything is "scuttled" based on a few past data points? Especially when those few data points don't even support your assertion:

1986: Duke 85, Mississippi Valley State 78;
1988: Duke 85, Boston U 69;
1994: Duke 82, Texas Southern 70.

Also, I'd like to point out that of last season's two finalists, UConn won their first round game in overtime and Kentucky won by 7.

UConn was a 7 seed and Kentucky was a 8. I think the poster is referring to a 16 seed.

Kedsy
03-19-2015, 02:55 PM
UConn was a 7 seed and Kentucky was a 8. I think the poster is referring to a 16 seed.

He clearly wasn't referring to a 1 vs. 16 matchup since he referenced all of Duke's Final Fours (which range from 1-seeds to 3-seeds). Only five of Duke's Final Four teams came from a 1-seed, and one of them (20%) struggled with its 16-seed. There's just no evidence that if Duke doesn't blow out its first opponent then our Final Four chances will be "scuttled."

freshmanjs
03-19-2015, 03:02 PM
A win by 16 is pretty close to a blowout, and even a 12-pt margin is quite comfortable given we likely led by much more and put in the bench at the end. Hard to know without a game log.

Given only 1 of K's 11 Final Four teams had a close (single-digit) first-round win, it's highly unlikely that if we struggle on Friday, a Final Four is in store. I'd still reckon the predictive power of the first round game is high for attaining the Final Four.

If the term "blowout" is too strong for you, then perhaps "comfortable win" will do.

correlation does not imply causality.

MarkD83
03-19-2015, 03:03 PM
NE a 14 seed had the ball down by 2 with 30 seconds left in the game against ND a 3 seed.

A 3 pointer wins, but their was a TO and ND escapes.

Bring the intensity and end the Robert Morris game by halftime!!!!!!!

CDu
03-19-2015, 03:04 PM
He clearly wasn't referring to a 1 vs. 16 matchup since he referenced all of Duke's Final Fours (which range from 1-seeds to 3-seeds). Only five of Duke's Final Four teams came from a 1-seed, and one of them (20%) struggled with its 16-seed. There's just no evidence that if Duke doesn't blow out its first opponent then our Final Four chances will be "scuttled."

To be fair, a 3/14 matchup is much closer to a 1/16 matchup than an 8/9 or a 7/10. I don't think bringing up UConn or UK from last year is any point of reference for our situation.

I agree that it doesn't necessarily matter if we win close or by a lot (as 1986 and a few other cases suggest). But let's stick with the more relevant examples rather than bringing up games that are essentially coin-flip games.

sagegrouse
03-19-2015, 03:17 PM
If we don't win in a blow-out, that pretty much scuttles our chances for a Final Four run. Have we ever had a title team or Final Four team struggle to put away a first round opponent? Off the top of my head I recall the 2010 team crushing UAPB handily.

OMG, 1986: Duke 75, Mississippi Valley State 68 in the 1-16 match-up in the first round. But MVS led most of the game.

Kedsy
03-19-2015, 03:17 PM
A win by 16 is pretty close to a blowout, and even a 12-pt margin is quite comfortable given we likely led by much more and put in the bench at the end. Hard to know without a game log.

My recollection is both those games were around 8 to 15 point margin for pretty much the entire second half. They weren't close to blowouts. I'd barely call them "comfortable."


I'd still reckon the predictive power of the first round game is high for attaining the Final Four.

Here are numbers from the last six Final Fours (going back to 2009):

FINAL FOUR TEAMS' MARGIN OF VICTORY IN FIRST GAME

0 to 9 points: 6 (and four of the games were one possession or overtime games);

10 to 15 points: 6

16 to 29 points: 6

30+ points: 6

So I'm not sure how high the predictive power is.

Troublemaker
03-19-2015, 04:04 PM
Duke NCAA press conference here: http://www.theacc.com/page/ncaa-men-basketball-press-conferences-2015

If you're watching right now live, you should rewind to beginning.

If you watch later, it should be archived and listed below.

Troublemaker
03-19-2015, 04:35 PM
Duke NCAA press conference here: http://www.theacc.com/page/ncaa-men-basketball-press-conferences-2015

If you're watching right now live, you should rewind to beginning.

If you watch later, it should be archived and listed below.

It's also archived here in case the link above doesn't have it: http://new.livestream.com/ACCDN/events/3892557

sagegrouse
03-19-2015, 04:36 PM
My recollection is both those games were around 8 to 15 point margin for pretty much the entire second half. They weren't close to blowouts. I'd barely call them "comfortable."



Here are numbers from the last six Final Fours (going back to 2009):

FINAL FOUR TEAMS' MARGIN OF VICTORY IN FIRST GAME

0 to 9 points: 6 (and four of the games were one possession or overtime games);

10 to 15 points: 6

16 to 29 points: 6

30+ points: 6

So I'm not sure how high the predictive power is.

Well, we know the slope of the line is 0.0000000.

Kindly, Sage

MCFinARL
03-19-2015, 04:44 PM
NE a 14 seed had the ball down by 2 with 30 seconds left in the game against ND a 3 seed.

A 3 pointer wins, but their was a TO and ND escapes.

Bring the intensity and end the Robert Morris game by halftime!!!!!!!

Yes, and that was the 3 seed that won today. Baylor and Iowa State have both gone down to 14s today.

I'll be happy to for Duke to beat RM by any margin, but I agree we are much better off if we don't let them hang around.

Indoor66
03-19-2015, 06:55 PM
No No, Bobby Mo.

Where are Kris or Janice when you need them?

uh_no
03-19-2015, 08:03 PM
Here are numbers from the last six Final Fours (going back to 2009):

FINAL FOUR TEAMS' MARGIN OF VICTORY IN FIRST GAME

0 to 9 points: 6 (and four of the games were one possession or overtime games);

10 to 15 points: 6

16 to 29 points: 6

30+ points: 6

So I'm not sure how high the predictive power is.

Kedsy, that analysis is meaningless unless you also consisder teams who didn't make the final four for comparison. It's a very common mistake:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

it may turn that the distribution for teams that DIDn'T make the final 4 is

50, 2, 1, 1.....in which case we could say we have significantly less chance (historically) should we NOT blow Bobby Mo out tomorrow.

Kedsy
03-19-2015, 11:55 PM
Kedsy, that analysis is meaningless unless you also consisder teams who didn't make the final four for comparison. It's a very common mistake:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

it may turn that the distribution for teams that DIDn'T make the final 4 is

50, 2, 1, 1.....in which case we could say we have significantly less chance (historically) should we NOT blow Bobby Mo out tomorrow.

I was responding to someone who said he thought Final Four teams almost all win by large margins in the first round. So considering that I directly responded to his claim, I think the analysis is far from meaningless.

But if you want to expand the analysis to include all teams, be my guest.

Also, the distribution for teams that didn't make the Final Four could never be 50, 2, 1, 1, because half the teams lose in the first round. Although if Duke loses, I think we can safely say we won't make the Final Four, unless you'd like to run further analysis on that, too?

uh_no
03-20-2015, 12:02 AM
I was responding to someone who said he thought Final Four teams almost all win by large margins in the first round. So considering that I directly responded to his claim, I think the analysis is far from meaningless.

But if you want to expand the analysis to include all teams, be my guest.

Also, the distribution for teams that didn't make the Final Four could never be 50, 2, 1, 1, because half the teams lose in the first round. Although if Duke loses, I think we can safely say we won't make the Final Four, unless you'd like to run further analysis on that, too?

If duke loses, I think I will safely never bother to analyze a game of basketball again.

gofurman
03-20-2015, 12:54 AM
OMG, 1986: Duke 75, Mississippi Valley State 68 in the 1-16 match-up in the first round. But MVS led most of the game.

An example. 2000 Florida won on a buzzer beater (literally) by mike miller and made the title game. Survive and advance

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XeqHbD8fji4

But we gotta survive first

subzero02
03-20-2015, 01:19 AM
An example. 2000 Florida won on a buzzer beater (literally) by mike miller and made the title game. Survive and advance

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XeqHbD8fji4

But we gotta survive first

In 1995 defending national champion Arkansas survived texas southern 79-78 before reaching championship game again...

crimsondevil
03-20-2015, 03:57 AM
I was responding to someone who said he thought Final Four teams almost all win by large margins in the first round. So considering that I directly responded to his claim, I think the analysis is far from meaningless.

But if you want to expand the analysis to include all teams, be my guest.

Also, the distribution for teams that didn't make the Final Four could never be 50, 2, 1, 1, because half the teams lose in the first round. Although if Duke loses, I think we can safely say we won't make the Final Four, unless you'd like to run further analysis on that, too?

I suppose Kedsy does address that particular point, but it seems to me like the performances of the #1 seeds are more relevant. At least they are to me, given that Duke is a #1 - also, tracking every team would take too long. In the last 10 years:

14 #1s have made the final four (out of 40, so 35%)
5 #1s won their first game by 1 to 10 pts: 0 made the FF (0%)
14 won by 11-20 pts: 3 made the FF (21%)
13 won by 21-30 pts: 5 made the FF (38%)
8 won by 31 or more: 6 made the FF (75%)

If anyone wants to add more data to increase the statistical power, please do, but it looks like a trend to me. I think we should try to win by as much as possible tomorrow.

CDu
03-20-2015, 07:18 AM
I suppose Kedsy does address that particular point, but it seems to me like the performances of the #1 seeds are more relevant. At least they are to me, given that Duke is a #1 - also, tracking every team would take too long. In the last 10 years:

14 #1s have made the final four (out of 40, so 35%)
5 #1s won their first game by 1 to 10 pts: 0 made the FF (0%)
14 won by 11-20 pts: 3 made the FF (21%)
13 won by 21-30 pts: 5 made the FF (38%)
8 won by 31 or more: 6 made the FF (75%)

If anyone wants to add more data to increase the statistical power, please do, but it looks like a trend to me. I think we should try to win by as much as possible tomorrow.

This is the most relevant response. One could certainly add the 1 seeds going back further, or potentially appropriately include 2 seeds and maybe 3 seeds for sample size. And of course one could quibble about what the categories of margin should be. But this is unquestionably the right way to look at it. And it certainly seems to suggest that a 1seed is FAR more likely to make the Final Four if they win the opener going away. 11 of the 14 1 seeds that made the Final Four won by 20+ points, and none played a game closer than 10. And among teams that won by a certain margin, a 1 seed was clearly more likely to make the Final Four when they won big than when they won close.

Saratoga2
03-20-2015, 07:43 AM
I suppose Kedsy does address that particular point, but it seems to me like the performances of the #1 seeds are more relevant. At least they are to me, given that Duke is a #1 - also, tracking every team would take too long. In the last 10 years:

14 #1s have made the final four (out of 40, so 35%)
5 #1s won their first game by 1 to 10 pts: 0 made the FF (0%)
14 won by 11-20 pts: 3 made the FF (21%)
13 won by 21-30 pts: 5 made the FF (38%)
8 won by 31 or more: 6 made the FF (75%)

If anyone wants to add more data to increase the statistical power, please do, but it looks like a trend to me. I think we should try to win by as much as possible tomorrow.

Going back further would likely skew the data. The era of one and dones has altered the results and to get a relevant comparison it is best to stay recent.

SkyBrickey
03-20-2015, 08:56 AM
I expect a lot of zone tonight to contain penetration and keep Jah and Marshall in the paint to clear the glass.

Very small team. They start two forwards at 6'8" and 6'5". Not a great 3 point shooting team. 37% on the year and they don't shoot a ton of them.

Probably a 3-2 zone vs 2-3 with Matt at the top to focus more on containing the quick guards.

Lucky Jones may be their best player and he comes off the bench to average 14 points and 6 rebounds.

We'll be very focused after the ND game. This should be a nice warm-up for a much tougher game on Sunday.

subzero02
03-20-2015, 09:07 AM
I just went to NBA draft.net and Okafor has dropped to the #3 prospect behind Towns at #1 and Russel at #2. Prove those gurus wrong Jahlil by going 30 for 30 from the line in the tourney...

dukelifer
03-20-2015, 09:22 AM
I just went to NBA draft.net and Okafor has dropped to the #3 prospect behind Towns at #1 and Russel at #2. Prove those gurus wrong Jahlil by going 30 for 30 from the line in the tourney...

If he drops anymore- may need to reconsider entering this year ;)

Billy Dat
03-20-2015, 10:12 AM
Good 20 minute interview with Robert Morris coach Andy Toole as he preps for Duke tonight:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio/mike-francesa/

Very fun fact - his wife is a huge Duke fan. In his words, "if it was a choice between me and JJ Redick, I don't think I'd win!"

dukelion
03-20-2015, 10:33 AM
Starting to get a bit nervous. Upsets are happening at a record rate, so I ask myself, could this be the year of the ultimate upset?

Ultrarunner
03-20-2015, 10:38 AM
Starting to get a bit nervous. Upsets are happening at a record rate, so I ask myself, could this be the year of the ultimate upset?

I don't think Wisconsin is that vulnerable, so no.

Troublemaker
03-20-2015, 10:39 AM
I think zone is doable against this team. Their low A/FGM hopefully means they're not a great passing team. The decision to play zone is more nuanced than just "Can they shoot?" .... "Can they pass?" and "Can they offensive rebound?" are right up there with the shooting question. RMU does see zone all the time in practice, though, which gives me pause. We'll see.

duke09hms
03-20-2015, 10:41 AM
I suppose Kedsy does address that particular point, but it seems to me like the performances of the #1 seeds are more relevant. At least they are to me, given that Duke is a #1 - also, tracking every team would take too long. In the last 10 years:

14 #1s have made the final four (out of 40, so 35%)
5 #1s won their first game by 1 to 10 pts: 0 made the FF (0%)
14 won by 11-20 pts: 3 made the FF (21%)
13 won by 21-30 pts: 5 made the FF (38%)
8 won by 31 or more: 6 made the FF (75%)

If anyone wants to add more data to increase the statistical power, please do, but it looks like a trend to me. I think we should try to win by as much as possible tomorrow.

Thanks for the analysis. My original statement about Duke's final 4 chances being scuttled if they don't win comfortably tomorrow was actually concerning 1 seeds though never explicitly stated (my bad), then others chimed in with all the close games where we made the Final Four inclusive of not being 1-seeds, and I just rolled with that. Still, even from that flawed dataset of 11 Duke Final Fours, I think it's interesting that all but one first-round games were won by double digits against arguably better opponents than a 16 seed.

When we look at the more similar dataset of 1-seed Duke Final Fours, there have been 6 1-seed Duke Final Fours with an average margin of victory of 31 and 6 Duke 1-seeds that fell short of the Final Four with an average margin of victory of 29. Which is not all that informative simply because there have only been 2 Duke games against 16 seeds that were even close.

However, with this more extensive dataset above, it does seem quite clear that there is predictive power for the FF in the margin of the 1v16 seed game, but it's only in the presence of a close game. Having a huge margin of victory by no means predicts the FF. But a close win pretty much takes it out of the picture, which was my original point.

A single-digit win against a 16 seed has very high positive predictive value for no FF, very high specificity, and low sensitivity.

duke09hms
03-20-2015, 10:45 AM
correlation does not imply causality.

Causality was never the point. A statistically significant correlation was.

Troublemaker
03-20-2015, 10:46 AM
Starting to get a bit nervous. Upsets are happening at a record rate, so I ask myself, could this be the year of the ultimate upset?

Don't get freaked out if the game is close.

Recent 1 vs 16 Scores

2014: Fla 67 - Albany 55; UVA 70 - Coastal Carolina 59; Arizona 68 - Weber St 59
2013: Gonzaga 64 - Southern 58; Kansas 64 - WKU 57
2012: Kentucky 81 - WKU 66; Syracuse 72 - Asheville 65;

So in the past three years, more than half of the 1 vs 16 games have been competitive.

I've seen nothing from RMU that suggests to me that they couldn't be competitive with Duke.

If it's a close game for awhile, don't panic.

jacone21
03-20-2015, 10:51 AM
Starting to get a bit nervous. Upsets are happening at a record rate, so I ask myself, could this be the year of the ultimate upset?

This is one of the first years in a while that I haven't been nervous about the first round game. I think Duke rolls tonight.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-20-2015, 10:55 AM
Don't get freaked out if the game is close.

Recent 1 vs 16 Scores

2014: Fla 67 - Albany 55; UVA 70 - Coastal Carolina 59; Arizona 68 - Weber St 59
2013: Gonzaga 64 - Southern 58; Kansas 64 - WKU 57
2012: Kentucky 81 - WKU 66; Syracuse 72 - Asheville 65;

So in the past three years, more than half of the 1 vs 16 games have been competitive.

I've seen nothing from RMU that suggests to me that they couldn't be competitive with Duke.

If it's a close game for awhile, don't panic.

Consider your audience, and recent history. We all know if its close this board will be in full on melt down alert. It would be epic panic, however thanks for the reminder and some perspective.

MCFinARL
03-20-2015, 10:59 AM
I suppose Kedsy does address that particular point, but it seems to me like the performances of the #1 seeds are more relevant. At least they are to me, given that Duke is a #1 - also, tracking every team would take too long. In the last 10 years:

14 #1s have made the final four (out of 40, so 35%)
5 #1s won their first game by 1 to 10 pts: 0 made the FF (0%)
14 won by 11-20 pts: 3 made the FF (21%)
13 won by 21-30 pts: 5 made the FF (38%)
8 won by 31 or more: 6 made the FF (75%)

If anyone wants to add more data to increase the statistical power, please do, but it looks like a trend to me. I think we should try to win by as much as possible tomorrow.

Your data are obviously solid here--but your conclusion, "I think we should try to win by as much as possible," re-raises the causation versus correlation issue. Winning the opening game by a lot doesn't really cause teams to reach the Final Four, it just demonstrates their ability to do so. Obviously, if Duke should try to win as handily as they can--but if they get up comfortably and can afford to rest one or two players who may need to play major minutes in the next game, there is no clear benefit in trying to score as many points as possible.


Good 20 minute interview with Robert Morris coach Andy Toole as he preps for Duke tonight:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio/mike-francesa/

Very fun fact - his wife is a huge Duke fan. In his words, "if it was a choice between me and JJ Redick, I don't think I'd win!"

Bonus fun fact--as the article linked on the front page notes, his 2 year old son is cheering for Duke.

Rich
03-20-2015, 11:00 AM
If we don't win in a blow-out, that pretty much scuttles our chances for a Final Four run. Have we ever had a title team or Final Four team struggle to put away a first round opponent? Off the top of my head I recall the 2010 team crushing UAPB handily.

When are people going to understand that the NCAA Tourney is ALL ABOUT MATCHUPS and survive and advance? Soundly beating one team has very little correlation to beating the next team. In fact, I'd rather have a comfortable or even close win in Round 1 over a blowout, especially for a young team, because it serves to get the team focused. The last thing we need is overconfidence.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 11:02 AM
Don't get freaked out if the game is close.

Recent 1 vs 16 Scores

2014: Fla 67 - Albany 55; UVA 70 - Coastal Carolina 59; Arizona 68 - Weber St 59
2013: Gonzaga 64 - Southern 58; Kansas 64 - WKU 57
2012: Kentucky 81 - WKU 66; Syracuse 72 - Asheville 65;

So in the past three years, more than half of the 1 vs 16 games have been competitive.

I've seen nothing from RMU that suggests to me that they couldn't be competitive with Duke.

If it's a close game for awhile, don't panic.

That Cuse/Asheville game was actually closer than the final score. A bad call down the stretch on UNCA bailed out Syracuse.

UNCA was only down 3 at the time.


With 35 seconds left and the Orange leading 66-63, the ball appeared to go out of bounds off Syracuse's Brandon Triche but the officials pointed the other way and gave it to the Orange. Jardine made two free throws a second later.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320750183

Luckily for UNCA, that win will be struck from the record as if it never happened because of Fab Melo...

As for why people might not like Boeheim, just read some of his flippant comments about the game after he was lucky to escape.

Rich
03-20-2015, 11:07 AM
With 35 seconds left and the Orange leading 66-63, the ball appeared to go out of bounds off Syracuse's Brandon Triche but the officials pointed the other way and gave it to the Orange. Jardine made two free throws a second later.

Plus, that play would have been reviewed and, presumably, corrected if the game was this year.

duke09hms
03-20-2015, 11:08 AM
When are people going to understand that the NCAA Tourney is ALL ABOUT MATCHUPS and survive and advance? Soundly beating one team has very little correlation to beating the next team. In fact, I'd rather have a comfortable or even close win in Round 1 over a blowout, especially for a young team, because it serves to get the team focused. The last thing we need is overconfidence.

Except that there is correlation. From Crimsondevil's dataset, in the last 10 years, none of the 1-seeds that won by single digits made the FF, and only 21% of the 1-seeds that won by 11-20 pts made the FF. On the other hand 75% of the 1-seeds that win by 31+ make the FF.

Obviously when broken down into these subgroups where n gets smaller and smaller, it's harder to attain p<0.05, but the trend IS there.

No one is saying causality here, but it is a decent predictor.

wgl1228
03-20-2015, 11:46 AM
Hoping for a sizable victory tonight and a comfortable victory Sunday. If we can do that, i'll feel more confident in this team. One game at a time though. Let's go Duke!

Mal
03-20-2015, 12:14 PM
Except that there is correlation. From Crimsondevil's dataset, in the last 10 years, none of the 1-seeds that won by single digits made the FF, and only 21% of the 1-seeds that won by 11-20 pts made the FF. On the other hand 75% of the 1-seeds that win by 31+ make the FF.

Obviously when broken down into these subgroups where n gets smaller and smaller, it's harder to attain p<0.05, but the trend IS there.

No one is saying causality here, but it is a decent predictor.

Agreed. A close win for a 1 seed in the first round has more negatives than the positives a team may gain from not getting overconfident if they win in a blowout. There may be an equally unproductive pschological effect from playing a close game against a team you're supposed to destroy, then having to get ready to play with just one day off against a signficantly better team in the second round. Doubt creeps in. And a competitive first round game against the champion of the SWAC or Sun Belt is not a sign that you're playing well. Nerves can and will fray, especially among young players. Not to mention that if it's competitive or close your starters are logging more minutes and will be less rested for that tougher second round game two days hence.

From the fan perspective, the capper is when you add in the brittle psyches of those of us on this board after the last few years of NCAA Tournament first round results for our favorite team. I will not be particularly pleased if we win by less than 15 tonight, or if it's ever within 12 in the last 10 minutes or so. Yes, that sounds spoiled and entitled and dismissive of Robert Morris and arrogant and whatever else. I don't care this year. I want to destroy someone so I can go into Sunday feeling confident instead of spending all day tomorrow worrying about a game against an 8 or 9 seed.

Henderson
03-20-2015, 12:28 PM
A 22 point spread seems like a lot to me. If the game is anywhere near competitive, it won't be a 22 point win. And if it's not competitive, Duke won't press things to impress anyone. Jah is just now coming up to 100% after his ankle. Grayson has been sick all week and has had limited practice time.

There are no longer any bonus points for resounding victories. If a game is no longer in doubt, you rest and start thinking about what best sets you up for the next game. There's no advantage to winning by 25 if you can win by 15 and get everyone healthy for Sunday.

Bottom line: If Duke is pushed, it won't be a 22 point game, and if Duke is not pushed, they won't make it a 22 point game.

freshmanjs
03-20-2015, 01:16 PM
Except that there is correlation. From Crimsondevil's dataset, in the last 10 years, none of the 1-seeds that won by single digits made the FF, and only 21% of the 1-seeds that won by 11-20 pts made the FF. On the other hand 75% of the 1-seeds that win by 31+ make the FF.

Obviously when broken down into these subgroups where n gets smaller and smaller, it's harder to attain p<0.05, but the trend IS there.

No one is saying causality here, but it is a decent predictor.

if there is no causality, then it is not a decent predictor.

Henderson
03-20-2015, 01:35 PM
if there is no causality, then it is not a decent predictor.

Generally true. But if a correlation is strong enough, that alone gives it predictive value. We're then left discussing what the mysterious causality behind that stong correlation might be. It's there someplace if the correlation is strong enough and can't otherwise be explained, for example by random occurences that unexpectely produce correlations that have no meaning.

duke09hms
03-20-2015, 01:37 PM
if there is no causality, then it is not a decent predictor.

This is not true. Say disease A causes a change in circulating protein A, and protein A increases as disease A progresses but itself has no downstream effect on disease A progression. Protein A has no causal effect on disease A progression, but has tons of value for assessment of patient outcome, disease progression, and treatment response.

Your statement would refute entire fields of medicine and the millions being spent on biomarker research.

Now causality only comes into effect if treatment is directed towards reducing levels of Protein A, and millions have been wasted on that flawed assumption. That strategy is then dependent on causality. This would be equivalent to a team running up a score intentionally IN ORDER to help likelihood of FF advancement. However, as described earlier, in games vs 16 seeds, large margins of victory are poor predictors to FF progression, but single-digit margins of victory are very strong predictors to NOT making the FF.

However, to make observation predictions, causality is unnecessary.

jv001
03-20-2015, 01:40 PM
It seems like the President of ESPN just called the announcers of this game and said. Go ahead and start the talk of a 4 seed losing. I think that person is a uncheat graduate. I may be wrong. GoDuke!

this post was suppose to be on the Womens BB post for todays game against Albany. I'm getting dumber by the minute. GoDuke!

crimsondevil
03-20-2015, 01:51 PM
Your data are obviously solid here--but your conclusion, "I think we should try to win by as much as possible," re-raises the causation versus correlation issue. Winning the opening game by a lot doesn't really cause teams to reach the Final Four, it just demonstrates their ability to do so. Obviously, if Duke should try to win as handily as they can--but if they get up comfortably and can afford to rest one or two players who may need to play major minutes in the next game, there is no clear benefit in trying to score as many points as possible.

Sorry, the last sentence was tongue-in-cheek. Should have written:


I think we should try to win by as much as possible tomorrow. :cool::cool::cool:

I agree it is an indicator (I like the biomarker comparison by duke09hms), not causal.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 02:17 PM
Except that there is correlation. From Crimsondevil's dataset, in the last 10 years, none of the 1-seeds that won by single digits made the FF, and only 21% of the 1-seeds that won by 11-20 pts made the FF. On the other hand 75% of the 1-seeds that win by 31+ make the FF.

Obviously when broken down into these subgroups where n gets smaller and smaller, it's harder to attain p<0.05, but the trend IS there.

No one is saying causality here, but it is a decent predictor.
The obvious thought is that very strong teams tend to do well against weak teams, and teams that are very strong tend to make the Final Four more often than those that are not.

And it may be just as simple as that. However, there may be a confounder that isn't being accounted for in this analysis (and I reserve the right to be completely and totally wrong here). Doesn't the NCAA give the strongest 1-seed the weakest 16-seed as their first-round opponent? If they do, maybe the reason that the big blow-out teams tend to get to the Final Four more often is because the winner of the lopsided games is one of the two strongest teams in the tournament, and that they're being matched up with one of the two weakest teams.

Just a thought.

CDu
03-20-2015, 02:25 PM
The obvious thought is that very strong teams tend to do well against weak teams, and teams that are very strong tend to make the Final Four more often than those that are not.

And it may be just as simple as that. However, there may be a confounder that isn't being accounted for in this analysis (and I reserve the right to be completely and totally wrong here). Doesn't the NCAA give the strongest 1-seed the weakest 16-seed as their first-round opponent? If they do, maybe the reason that the big blow-out teams tend to get to the Final Four more often is because the winner of the lopsided games is one of the two strongest teams in the tournament, and that they're being matched up with one of the two weakest teams.

Just a thought.

That is a possible confounder, but I doubt it contributes very much. For one thing, it assumes that the committee is actually capable of accurately assessing the quality of the bottom six teams in the field. For another, for it to matter, there would have to be a discernible difference in the quality of the 16 seeds. I have serious doubts about either of these two points.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 02:32 PM
That is a possible confounder, but I doubt it contributes very much. For one thing, it assumes that the committee is actually capable of accurately assessing the quality of the bottom six teams in the field. For another, for it to matter, there would have to be a discernible difference in the quality of the 16 seeds. I have serious doubts about either of these two points.

Agree, to a certain extent, but perhaps there is an actual difference between the quality of the 1 seeds, especially between the overall number one versus, say, the 4th number one?

Again, I don't know, and I'm not going to take the time to find out; I was just raising an idea for discussion.

CDu
03-20-2015, 02:38 PM
Agree, to a certain extent, but perhaps there is an actual difference between the quality of the 1 seeds, especially between the overall number one versus, say, the 4th number one?

Again, I don't know, and I'm not going to take the time to find out; I was just raising an idea for discussion.

Right, but that's exactly the argument people are making: the better you are, the more likely you are to blow out your 16 seed opponent AND the more likely you are to make the Final Four. Conversely, the shakier you are, the more likely you are to struggle against your 16 seed AND the more likely you are not to make the Final Four.

Nobody is saying that blowing the 16 seed out is driving a team's Final Four chances; they are saying that blowing a 16 seed out (as compared to eeking out a victory) is indicative of being a more dominant team, and being a more dominant team makes you more likely to make the Final Four.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 02:46 PM
Right, but that's exactly the argument people are making: the better you are, the more likely you are to blow out your 16 seed opponent AND the more likely you are to make the Final Four. Conversely, the shakier you are, the more likely you are to struggle against your 16 seed AND the more likely you are not to make the Final Four.

Nobody is saying that blowing the 16 seed out is driving a team's Final Four chances; they are saying that blowing a 16 seed out (as compared to eeking out a victory) is indicative of being a more dominant team, and being a more dominant team makes you more likely to make the Final Four.

Couldn't agree more.

Having said that, though, there have obviously been teams that eked out a 10-ish point win in the first round who managed to get into the Final Four; relatively poor performance in the opening round predicts a lower likelihood of making the Final Four, but it doesn't rule it out. Likewise, blowing out a 16-seed, although it increases the likelihood of making the Final Four, is not a guarantee. Match-ups, etc., still rule the day in later rounds against better opponents in a one-game tournament.

But I completely agree with your analysis as you outlined it, above.

davekay1971
03-20-2015, 02:53 PM
This is one of the first years in a while that I haven't been nervous about the first round game. I think Duke rolls tonight.

I hope you're right, but I'm always nervous about 1 vs 16 games. You just hope to get through it with an easy win and rested players. No injuries, please. And you never, ever want to make history as the 1 in a 1 vs 16 game.

CDu
03-20-2015, 02:55 PM
Couldn't agree more.

Having said that, though, there have obviously been teams that eked out a 10-ish point win in the first round who managed to get into the Final Four; relatively poor performance in the opening round predicts a lower likelihood of making the Final Four, but it doesn't rule it out. Likewise, blowing out a 16-seed, although it increases the likelihood of making the Final Four, is not a guarantee. Match-ups, etc., still rule the day in later rounds against better opponents in a one-game tournament.

But I completely agree with your analysis as you outlined it, above.

Oh I agree. A close win doesn't rule out the possibility of a #1 seed rebounding and still making the Final Four. It's just that playing a close game tonight is not a good indicator with regard to our chances of making the Final Four based on recent history for 1 seeds in the tournament.

uh_no
03-20-2015, 03:16 PM
Oh I agree. A close win doesn't rule out the possibility of a #1 seed rebounding and still making the Final Four. It's just that playing a close game tonight is not a good indicator with regard to our chances of making the Final Four based on recent history for 1 seeds in the tournament.

not a one seed....but uconn was taken to overtime in their opener last year....

Here's a breakdown..POINTS 1 seeds won by vs round they reached
12 4
11 16
9 8
27 32
31 4
16 32
7 16
21 16
15 4
22 16
7 8
19 8
29 16
42 16
19 8
23 32
26 32
23 16
29 8
29 4

Turns out there's weak NEGATIVE correlation....the more points you win by, the earlier you're expected to go out, based on the last 5 years. That said, the correlation is EXTREMELY weak...like R^2 = .02

But can we stop talking about whether we win by 5 10 20 or 50 has ANY real predictive value as to the rest of our tournament success? IT DOESN'T. In fact, every extra point we win by equates with .01 fewer tournament wins.

Bob Green
03-20-2015, 03:29 PM
Current consensus line in Las Vegas has Duke favored by 22.5 points with the over/under set at 143.5. That's a big spread, but I'm not worried about covering as winning and advancing is the objective. However, a nice comfortable win would be enjoyable.

duke09hms
03-20-2015, 03:36 PM
not a one seed....but uconn was taken to overtime in their opener last year....

Here's a breakdown..POINTS 1 seeds won by vs round they reached
12 4
11 16
9 8
27 32
31 4
16 32
7 16
21 16
15 4
22 16
7 8
19 8
29 16
42 16
19 8
23 32
26 32
23 16
29 8
29 4

Turns out there's weak NEGATIVE correlation....the more points you win by, the earlier you're expected to go out, based on the last 5 years. That said, the correlation is EXTREMELY weak...like R^2 = .02

But can we stop talking about whether we win by 5 10 20 or 50 has ANY real predictive value as to the rest of our tournament success? IT DOESN'T. In fact, every extra point we win by equates with .01 fewer tournament wins.

If you look at categorical outcome: FF or non-FF, from the last 40 one seeds, there is a trend. A single digit win over 16 seed has very high specificity for not making the FF and a strong positive predictive value. Conversely, and this supports your point, a large margin of victory has very weak predictive value for making the FF.

In terms of FF potential, no prediction if we win huge tonight. But not looking good if we win by <10.

CDu
03-20-2015, 03:41 PM
not a one seed....but uconn was taken to overtime in their opener last year....

Completely irrelevant as discussed earlier. The results of a 7/10 matchup are naturally going to be far different than the results of a 1/16 matchup. Much higher quality of opponent facing a 10 seed than a 1 seed.


Here's a breakdown..POINTS 1 seeds won by vs round they reached
12 4
11 16
9 8
27 32
31 4
16 32
7 16
21 16
15 4
22 16
7 8
19 8
29 16
42 16
19 8
23 32
26 32
23 16
29 8
29 4

Turns out there's weak NEGATIVE correlation....the more points you win by, the earlier you're expected to go out, based on the last 5 years. That said, the correlation is EXTREMELY weak...like R^2 = .02

But can we stop talking about whether we win by 5 10 20 or 50 has ANY real predictive value as to the rest of our tournament success? IT DOESN'T. In fact, every extra point we win by equates with .01 fewer tournament wins.

A few things:
1. If you look only at the dichotomous dependent variable (Final Four =1, not = 0), the correlation is slightly positive (though again, not a strong correlation at all).
2. If you extend the data to the past 10 years, the correlation is positive both in the more continuous measure of tourney games won (CORR = 0.325) and in probability of making the Final Four (CORR = 0.447).
3. If you categorize the margin of victory, there is a clearly positive correlation.

So I don't think I'd say it definitely isn't a predictor. Just depends on the sample you consider.

Wander
03-20-2015, 03:46 PM
A problem here is that 16 seeds have by far the widest variance of any seeds, so that kind of straight comparison probably isn't justified.

But why do we even need to look? It's a well established fact of all sports that winning by more points on average means you're better.

Mal
03-20-2015, 04:43 PM
Right, but that's exactly the argument people are making: the better you are, the more likely you are to blow out your 16 seed opponent AND the more likely you are to make the Final Four. Conversely, the shakier you are, the more likely you are to struggle against your 16 seed AND the more likely you are not to make the Final Four.

Nobody is saying that blowing the 16 seed out is driving a team's Final Four chances; they are saying that blowing a 16 seed out (as compared to eeking out a victory) is indicative of being a more dominant team, and being a more dominant team makes you more likely to make the Final Four.

Right on with this.

On your prior post, I feel like there's some ability to distinguish between the 16's most years, because there are a few who had middling finishes in bad conferences and then went on a run to win their conference tournament. The teams that win their regular season or finish 2nd and then win their tourney are different from Hampton, who finished 8-8 in the MEAC. Lafayette throws a little wrinkle in that this year, I guess, as a .500 team but from the Patriot League, which is clearly stronger than the MAAC or Atlantic Sun, so it's hard to compare them to anyone.

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-20-2015, 05:01 PM
This thread should live forever in infamy as the definition of neurotic.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 05:06 PM
This thread should live forever in infamy as the definition of neurotic.

No kidding. How are we at 8 pages already? It's a 16 seed and the game doesn't start for another 2 hours...

dukelifer
03-20-2015, 05:20 PM
No kidding. How are we at 8 pages already? It's a 16 seed and the game doesn't start for another 2 hours...

Well to be fair- this thread also included the obsession of the best 16 seed in the tourney - North Florida -a team that somehow fell to the next best 16 seed Robert Morris who by beating North Florida- absorbed all their strengths. We now have a super team on our hands - one that only lost 14 games because of the biased refs and some unfortunate and unexplained illnesses that made their players miss some shots and turn the ball over at the wrong times. If we account for the points that they should have scored in those games, Robert Morris is technically undefeated and for that reason we are really playing a true 1 seed- justifying the obsession. We must continue to obsess until 9:30 when we will turn our attentions to the next greatest team that Duke will face.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 05:23 PM
Well to be fair- this thread also included the obsession of the best 16 seed in the tourney - North Florida -a team that somehow fell to the next best 16 seed Robert Morris who by beating North Florida- absorbed all their strengths. We now have a super team on our hands - one that only lost 14 games because of the biased refs and some unfortunate and unexplained illnesses that made their players miss some shots and turn the ball over at the wrong times. If we account for the points that they should have scored in those games, Robert Morris is technically undefeated and for that reason we are really playing a true 1 seed- justifying the obsession. We must continue to obsess until 9:30 when we will turn our attentions to the next greatest team that Duke will face.

This is how I envision Robert Morris right now:

http://media.comicbook.com/uploads1/ugc/243/20100204104618-terminator-104075.jpg

jipops
03-20-2015, 05:27 PM
This thread should live forever in infamy as the definition of neurotic.

Count me in as a contributor to this. I can't help but be worried about this one. I'm hopeful we put them away early. Otherwise It may be rather stressful to watch.

NashvilleDevil
03-20-2015, 05:27 PM
This thread should live forever in infamy as the definition of neurotic.

Wait until the game starts and the first few minutes are close. This thread may challenge the longest thread on the off topic board.

Indoor66
03-20-2015, 05:28 PM
How many Angels can sit on the head of a pin?

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-20-2015, 05:35 PM
Wait until the game starts and the first few minutes are close. This thread may challenge the longest thread on the off topic board.
Thank god for chat.

TruBlu
03-20-2015, 05:52 PM
When are people going to understand that the NCAA Tourney is ALL ABOUT MATCHUPS and survive and advance? Soundly beating one team has very little correlation to beating the next team. In fact, I'd rather have a comfortable or even close win in Round 1 over a blowout, especially for a young team, because it serves to get the team focused. The last thing we need is overconfidence.

True. Thumping N.C. State didn't help us against ND in the ACC, did it? Might have even hurt.

westwall
03-20-2015, 06:04 PM
Haven't seen this mentioned here, but the Wash Post said that K reported that Allen has been ill and hasn't practiced this week. Any info on whether he will be able to play tonight??

NashvilleDevil
03-20-2015, 06:25 PM
Haven't seen this mentioned here, but the Wash Post said that K reported that Allen has been ill and hasn't practiced this week. Any info on whether he will be able to play tonight??

If this is true Duke is doomed. Let's add another 15 pages of how Duke is in for it against Robert Morris.

-jk
03-20-2015, 06:30 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

53n206
03-20-2015, 06:37 PM
Is there anyway that we can designate threads that are particularly important to mathematicians and statisticians?

MarkD83
03-20-2015, 06:46 PM
Is there anyway that we can designate threads that are particularly important to mathematicians and statisticians?

Let me do some calculations and get back to you...

rsvman
03-20-2015, 06:47 PM
Grayson's being ill is potentially really bad, not because we need him tonight, but because illness trend to spread through sports teams like wildfire. If 2 or 3 of our 8 scholarship players are under the weather, Sunday's game could be really tough (provided we win tonight, obviously.

hurleyfor3
03-20-2015, 06:50 PM
Is there anyway that we can designate threads that are particularly important to mathematicians and statisticians?

If we could, it sure as hell wouldn't be this one.

riverside6
03-20-2015, 06:54 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Robert Morris, starters posted ...

http://www.scacchoops.com/tbd-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-3202015-710-pm

sagegrouse
03-20-2015, 06:55 PM
Oh I agree. A close win doesn't rule out the possibility of a #1 seed rebounding and still making the Final Four. It's just that playing a close game tonight is not a good indicator with regard to our chances of making the Final Four based on recent history for 1 seeds in the tournament.

It is generally accepted that, on average, the gap between the #1 seed and the #2 seed is greater than any other gap in the NCAA seeds. The reason is that #1 seeds are the upper tail of the distribution and some #1 seeds are really, really good. E.g., according to one source, the average wins by seed is as follows


#1 3.33
#2 2.40
#3 1.83
#4 1.55
#5 1.11
etc.

The gap is nearly one full game in expected wins between #1 and #2 and far more than the subsequent gaps. It stands to reason that #1 seeds who are off the chart should beat everyone like a drum on the first weekend. Of course, "off the chart" is usually assessed after the fact.

I have no idea what this post is about. Oh well,......

dukelifer
03-20-2015, 06:56 PM
Grayson's being ill is potentially really bad, not because we need him tonight, but because illness trend to spread through sports teams like wildfire. If 2 or 3 of our 8 scholarship players are under the weather, Sunday's game could be really tough (provided we win tonight, obviously.

There is a link online that says he is fine now and ready to go.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 07:21 PM
Dukelifer, that's good news but my concern is about the other players in the event that whatever Grayson had is communicable.

NYBri
03-20-2015, 07:24 PM
We look ready.

pfrduke
03-20-2015, 07:26 PM
BOLD PREDICTION: If we keep shooting 90%, we'll win. Nice hot start.

dairedevil
03-20-2015, 07:29 PM
Wasn't Quinn getting over the "flu" last weekend? Perhaps whatever bug has already gone through the team. Grayson has been in the game, so hopefully he's okay.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 07:32 PM
Could be. That would be good news. We need to stay healthy.

Liking the energy so far, especially on defense. Good rebounding, too.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 07:37 PM
Okafor must feel like he's back in high school this game.

westwall
03-20-2015, 07:41 PM
There is a link online that says he is fine now and ready to go.

Thanks. Jim Nantz just confirmed the "flu symptoms", but Allen is playing.

duketaylor
03-20-2015, 07:43 PM
Enjoying this a bunch more than Raleigh last year, so far.

wilson
03-20-2015, 07:48 PM
They've got us right where they want us.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 07:53 PM
What sort of probability are we looking at of winning a game where we shoot 70% from the field and rebound over half of all missed shots?

subzero02
03-20-2015, 07:54 PM
So far so good... I just tuned in. It would've been nice if Cook had hit at least one of those last 2 open threes.

Pghdukie
03-20-2015, 07:54 PM
MP3 has given us a huge spark o and d. Lethargic until he checked in. Kudos to His effort

rsvman
03-20-2015, 07:56 PM
So far so good... I just tuned in. It would've been nice if Cook had hit at least one of those last 2 open threes.

Well you missed him hitting his first 3.
So there's that.

kcduke75
03-20-2015, 08:01 PM
How is G Hill doing? Cannot stand Rafferty so not listening

SCMatt33
03-20-2015, 08:01 PM
A little lethargic on offense in the half. Some hot shooting early, some points off of D late, and being bigger than them throughout. Some good effort on the defensive end though after taking a couple of minutes to settle in. Bobby Mo played pretty good outside of a few missed bunnies inside.

subzero02
03-20-2015, 08:01 PM
Well you missed him hitting his first 3.
So there's that.

Good to hear; shaking off the rust from the notre dame debacle... But I stand by my original statement ;-)

CDu
03-20-2015, 08:03 PM
The only disappointing thing about the first half was allowing them 8 offensive rebounds. Fix that and we should be just fine (even if/when we cool off from the field).

arnie
03-20-2015, 08:03 PM
MP3 has given us a huge spark o and d. Lethargic until he checked in. Kudos to His effort

Curious why Amile subbed for Winslow so much? It wasn't due to better play.

mr. synellinden
03-20-2015, 08:05 PM
Curious why Amile subbed for Winslow so much? It wasn't due to better play.

Winslow picked up a second foul with about 6 minutes left.

Team seemed to take the foot off the gas a little during the last 5-6 minutes of the half. I suspect Coach K will be addressing that at halftime.

NashvilleDevil
03-20-2015, 08:05 PM
Curious why Amile subbed for Winslow so much? It wasn't due to better play.

I would say it's the two fouls that Justise picked up but I believe the real reason is Justise is scared to play against Robert Morris. Rememeber that Justise is only a freshmen and playing against one of the great teams ever may be to much to ask.

DU82
03-20-2015, 08:09 PM
Curious why Amile subbed for Winslow so much? It wasn't due to better play.

Amile played good defense, so I disagree with your last comment. He helped on a few breaks, both stopping the immediate break, and then when the rest came down, guarded his man effectively.

arnie
03-20-2015, 08:09 PM
I would say it's the two fouls that Justise picked up but I believe the real reason is Justise is scared to play against Robert Morris. Rememeber that Justise is only a freshmen and playing against one of the great teams ever may be to much to ask.

Good point - he watched Bobby beat Beau and N. Fl

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:10 PM
Curious why Amile subbed for Winslow so much? It wasn't due to better play.

Like others said, the two fouls.

But I disagree that Amile didn't play better than Winslow that half.

arnie
03-20-2015, 08:11 PM
Amile played good defense, so I disagree with your last comment. He helped on a few breaks, both stopping the immediate break, and then when the rest came down, guarded his man effectively.

Offense was poor - Winslow can play on both ends

heyman25
03-20-2015, 08:13 PM
Jefferson seems to have lost his swag on offense. He missed two near gimmee shots. The last one was contested but he used to make those.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:17 PM
Jefferson seems to have lost his swag on offense. He missed two near gimmee shots. The last one was contested but he used to make those.

He also got bumped. K wanted the foul call.

Winslow is a better offensive player for sure. But he hasn't even attempted a shot. He seemed out of sync in the first half.

DU82
03-20-2015, 08:33 PM
Offense was poor - Winslow can play on both ends

Can but hasn't so far. (Or at least in the first half.). I thought Amile was better in D from what I saw.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 08:35 PM
And.......Oak to the not top ten.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:36 PM
K was *pissed* after Jah tried to showboat. Benched him. Wonder how long he sits in a blowout.

Wonder how mad he'd have been if he made it?

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:39 PM
10-0 run by Robert Morris bought Okafor some forgiveness.

fgb
03-20-2015, 08:40 PM
K was *pissed* after Jah tried to showboat. Benched him. Wonder how long he sits in a blowout.

Wonder how mad he'd have been if he made it?

he sat him for all of the blowout part.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:42 PM
Amile gets flattened on the rebound. No call.

arnie
03-20-2015, 08:43 PM
he sat him for all of the blowout part.

We are playing weak and out hustled.

Karl Beem
03-20-2015, 08:43 PM
AJ totally inept.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 08:44 PM
Effort for loose balls and on D is flagging.

fgb
03-20-2015, 08:45 PM
We are playing weak and out hustled.

they're gambling, releasing someone every time we shoot. it won't keep paying off. junk basketball.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 08:45 PM
Jefferson was mugged

subzero02
03-20-2015, 08:47 PM
I love it when Justise goes into beast mode

Billy Dat
03-20-2015, 08:47 PM
Justise - one man gang

BigZ
03-20-2015, 08:47 PM
This team will go as far as Justice can take it.

MarkD83
03-20-2015, 08:47 PM
Justise is served

pfrduke
03-20-2015, 08:47 PM
An engaged Justise Winslow might be the best weapon we have, and I say that recognizing all the other weapons we have.

gumbomoop
03-20-2015, 08:47 PM
Okafor with my "favorite" stupid play: thunder-dumb with an especially stupid twist. It's dismaying to see any player -- but especially one of our guys -- valuing style over actual points. Hard to say what that deserves by way of condemnation.

About the only good thing to come from RMU's run is that it put an end to the silly Duke lovefest among the announcers. Grant is as embarrassingly pro-Duke as Bilas is pro-Roy.

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:50 PM
Winslow with a showboat pass - take a seat.

subzero02
03-20-2015, 08:50 PM
Oh Plumlee...

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:51 PM
Plumlee - you are a foot taller than RMU. Don't pump fake. Go up immediately.

NYBri
03-20-2015, 08:52 PM
Major wake up call with Okafor's reverse move.

Billy Dat
03-20-2015, 08:52 PM
Plumlee - you are a foot taller than RMU. Don't pump fake. Go up immediately.

He loves that two-handed power dribble.

arnie
03-20-2015, 08:54 PM
Winslow with a showboat pass - take a seat.

K's pissed but I agree with above posters- Winslow may be the key if we go far

gumbomoop
03-20-2015, 08:54 PM
Oh Plumlee...

He's learned well from Mason how to take a rhythm dribble -- so as to allow the defense to get to him -- rather than to go straight up. As long as the ball is above the rim, he does tend to dunk it comfortably with two hands, as just now on lovely pass from Quinn. But otherwise ........

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 08:57 PM
RM has some talent. I would expect them to be back in the tourney next season.

Tripping William
03-20-2015, 08:59 PM
I love it when Justise goes into beast mode

He only does it so he won't get fined.

Billy Dat
03-20-2015, 09:01 PM
I find the Robert Morris cherry picking to be very bush league, but if it works...

FerryFor50
03-20-2015, 09:03 PM
I find the Robert Morris cherry picking to be very bush league, but if it works...

I'm surprised their coach is allowing it. That's usually a coaching no-no.

rsvman
03-20-2015, 09:04 PM
I find the Robert Morris cherry picking to be very bush league, but if it works...

Its like a freaking rec league move.