The Team No One Wants To See

[JasonEvans]

We do it every year. We look at the brackets and say, "how is team X a #5 seed?!?!?! They are better than all the other #5 seeds and half the #4s. Why are they in our bracket?!?!" Then we look a bit more and say the same thing about a #7 or #10 and so on and so on.

So, using BracketMatrix.com (http://bracketmatrix.com/) as my guide, here are the seeds no one wants to see on each seed line.


1. Kentucky - no duuuuuh!
2. Wisconsin - BracketMatrix still has Wisky as a #2 even though I think most of us feel they have moved to the #1 line, probably bouncing either Duke or Virginia. So, I'll say Wisconsin, but if they are a #1 then this honor goes to whichever of Duke or Virginia get dropped to the #2 line.
3. Notre Dame - I think the Irish are all but a mortal lock to be the #3 in the Midwest and I am dying to see them battle Kentucky in the ultimate test of inside power versus outside shooting. As an aside, the other likely #3s (Maryland, Baylor, and Iowa State are all scary good).
4. Oklahoma - Did you know they have 12 wins against the RPI top 50? That's more than Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky and a slew of other top seeded teams.
5. The #5 line is lousy this year. Really not impressive teams. Arkansas hasn't beaten a single team that will be favored in its first round matchup. Utah's record vs the RPI top 50 is 3-7. Wichita St has exactly 1 road win over an RPI top 100 team... Illinois St. So, I guess the team no one wants to see on the 5-line is West Virginia. They do have wins against Kansas and Oklahoma, though both those games were at home.
6. SMU - They've done a nice job of gaming the RPI by playing a lot of top 100 teams but not a lot of top 25 teams, so we don't really know that much about them. Still, they beat Temple 3 times and have a road record of 8-4, which is pretty darn good.
7. Michigan St - Sparty seems to be peaking at the right time. They've won 8 of 10 and 4 in a row against Purdue, @ Indiana, Ohio St, and Maryland. That's an impressive a stretch as any team in the country right now.
8. Oregon - Ducks have been pretty darn hot lately. They've won 11 of 13 including 2 victories over Utah and 3 straight road wins.
9. NC St - As we have seen, the Pack is capable of playing with anyone, especially when the outside shots are falling. I also think the shot blocking of BJ Anya can be a game-changer. If the Pack are playing well, they can take out a #1 seed. By the way, my first instinct was to take Cincy on this line, but did you know they have 2 losses to teams outside the top 200 in the RPI? And both of those loses are fairly recent, games in February. Not good.
10. Okie St - Road wins at Baylor and Texas are impressive. They also have a win over Kansas. But, they have really struggled lately. Still, I ain't taking an SEC team (Ga or LSU) and the best team Colorado St played this year was San Diego St. So, OSU gets the pick here by default.
11. Texas - They've played a nightmare schedule. 7 of the their losses are to teams in the RPI top 10. There isn't anything even close to a bad loss on their resume. But, they sure haven't beaten many good teams either. Still, they've played the best all season long. They'll be a tough out.



After the 11s, we get into the AQ conferences and while I would love to talk about Wofford, Harvard, Buffalo, and UC-Irvine the reality is that no one really looks at those teams and worries too much. Maybe Harvard, which has managed to win games in the tourney in back-to-back years, might scare some folks but I'm done with the "Teams no one wants to see."

So, what did I mess up? Who did I forget? And, most importantly, did I really only do this because I wanted to predict Notre Dame over Kentucky?

-Jason "t-minus 3 hours, 46 minutes until we find out who is going where!" Evans

[dukelifer]

We do it every year. We look at the brackets and say, "how is team X a #5 seed?!?!?! They are better than all the other #5 seeds and half the #4s. Why are they in our bracket?!?!" Then we look a bit more and say the same thing about a #7 or #10 and so on and so on.

So, using BracketMatrix.com (http://bracketmatrix.com/) as my guide, here are the seeds no one wants to see on each seed line.


1. Kentucky - no duuuuuh!
2. Wisconsin - BracketMatrix still has Wisky as a #2 even though I think most of us feel they have moved to the #1 line, probably bouncing either Duke or Virginia. So, I'll say Wisconsin, but if they are a #1 then this honor goes to whichever of Duke or Virginia get dropped to the #2 line.
3. Notre Dame - I think the Irish are all but a mortal lock to be the #3 in the Midwest and I am dying to see them battle Kentucky in the ultimate test of inside power versus outside shooting. As an aside, the other likely #3s (Maryland, Baylor, and Iowa State are all scary good).
4. Oklahoma - Did you know they have 12 wins against the RPI top 50? That's more than Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky and a slew of other top seeded teams.
5. The #5 line is lousy this year. Really not impressive teams. Arkansas hasn't beaten a single team that will be favored in its first round matchup. Utah's record vs the RPI top 50 is 3-7. Wichita St has exactly 1 road win over an RPI top 100 team... Illinois St. So, I guess the team no one wants to see on the 5-line is West Virginia. They do have wins against Kansas and Oklahoma, though both those games were at home.
6. SMU - They've done a nice job of gaming the RPI by playing a lot of top 100 teams but not a lot of top 25 teams, so we don't really know that much about them. Still, they beat Temple 3 times and have a road record of 8-4, which is pretty darn good.
7. Michigan St - Sparty seems to be peaking at the right time. They've won 8 of 10 and 4 in a row against Purdue, @ Indiana, Ohio St, and Maryland. That's an impressive a stretch as any team in the country right now.
8. Oregon - Ducks have been pretty darn hot lately. They've won 11 of 13 including 2 victories over Utah and 3 straight road wins.
9. NC St - As we have seen, the Pack is capable of playing with anyone, especially when the outside shots are falling. I also think the shot blocking of BJ Anya can be a game-changer. If the Pack are playing well, they can take out a #1 seed. By the way, my first instinct was to take Cincy on this line, but did you know they have 2 losses to teams outside the top 200 in the RPI? And both of those loses are fairly recent, games in February. Not good.
10. Okie St - Road wins at Baylor and Texas are impressive. They also have a win over Kansas. But, they have really struggled lately. Still, I ain't taking an SEC team (Ga or LSU) and the best team Colorado St played this year was San Diego St. So, OSU gets the pick here by default.
11. Texas - They've played a nightmare schedule. 7 of the their losses are to teams in the RPI top 10. There isn't anything even close to a bad loss on their resume. But, they sure haven't beaten many good teams either. Still, they've played the best all season long. They'll be a tough out.



After the 11s, we get into the AQ conferences and while I would love to talk about Wofford, Harvard, Buffalo, and UC-Irvine the reality is that no one really looks at those teams and worries too much. Maybe Harvard, which has managed to win games in the tourney in back-to-back years, might scare some folks but I'm done with the "Teams no one wants to see."

So, what did I mess up? Who did I forget? And, most importantly, did I really only do this because I wanted to predict Notre Dame over Kentucky?

-Jason "t-minus 3 hours, 46 minutes until we find out who is going where!" Evans
On the right night - ND is exactly the kind of team that could beat KY because they are capable of scoring a ton of points from deep. They will need KY to have an off night scoring as ND's D is suspect at best.

[rsvman]

BYU could be a pretty scary 12 seed. They have two explosive scorers, they're a lot more athletic than people think they are, they play at a frenetic pace and they never get tired (training at altitude has its perks).

They have some bad losses, but it was pretty impressive the way they went into Gonzaga's house and beat them. We'll have to wait to see who they're matched up with, but they could pretty easily pull off an early round upset.

[Bob Green]

3. Notre Dame - I think the Irish are all but a mortal lock to be the #3 in the Midwest and I am dying to see them battle Kentucky in the ultimate test of inside power versus outside shooting. As an aside, the other likely #3s (Maryland, Baylor, and Iowa State are all scary good).



I agree with you all those likely #3 Seeds look tough, which is one reason I really hope we end up as a #1 Seed. Our road wins are impressive and might be strong enough to keep us on the top line. I'm doubtful though as we did not win either the conference regular season or tournament.

[Henderson]

I'd worry about a North Carolina team as a four seed. They have more raw talent than Oklahoma. When they are on, they are very dangerous. They're like a bank robber cornered by the cops: You know they're going to come to a bad ending, but they might take out a hostage or three.

[burnspbesq]

Who did you forget? Davidson. As a 9 or a 10, they are extremely dangerous.

FWIW, Lunardi currently has UC Irvine playing Louisville in the first round. If you're looking for a potential 13-over-4 upset, that's worth looking at. If the Cards' perimeter defense isn't completely dialed in, the Anteaters will have a field day feeding 7'6" Ndiaye and his 7'2" backup Dimatopoulos on the blocks.

[DukieInBrasil]

I agree with you all those likely #3 Seeds look tough, which is one reason I really hope we end up as a #1 Seed. Our road wins are impressive and might be strong enough to keep us on the top line. I'm doubtful though as we did not win either the conference regular season or tournament.

I hope that the Seeding committee takes into account that one of the only reasons we didn't win the conference regular season is because of the stupid unbalanced schedule, in which our schedule was much, much more difficult than UVA's. Not winning the conference tourney is entirely on the players.

[Troublemaker]

North Florida would be a nightmare 16 seed. They put 5 shooters on the floor and drive.

Don't laugh.

[freshmanjs]

I hope that the Seeding committee takes into account that one of the only reasons we didn't win the conference regular season is because of the stupid unbalanced schedule, in which our schedule was much, much more difficult than UVA's. Not winning the conference tourney is entirely on the players.

dont think that argument is very compelling when you look at who we lost to. i do think Duke will be ahead of UVA, but not for that reason. The reason will be the non-conference wins and the head to head win over UVA.

[hudlow]

Maryland - if you beat them their fans will "key" your fans' cars in the parking lot.

[gurufrisbee]

Looking at the Matrix right now:

1) Kentucky (but not really a worry - they won't play four good games in a row - they haven't all year)
2) Gonzaga - size, experience, depth, talent
3) Iowa St - most explosive team in the country
4) NC - because I never want to give them a chance to beat us in the tournament
5) there truly is nothing good here
6) Georgetown - Smith gives them size to make life hard on Okafor and Rivera-Smith can shoot them into any game
7) Michigan St - they are hot now
8) Ohio St - the young talent there could get hot
9) Tough call between Davidson and NC St - both could be scary
10) Ok St - the Big 12 is good and they've gotten some big wins there
11) matrix is listing six teams here and BYU is the only one who could be scary
12 and lower) Wofford is good, and if anyone isn't aware of what Harvard and SFA can and have done in the tournament then that's ridiculous.

[Duke95]

Maryland - if you beat them their fans will "key" your fans' cars in the parking lot.

Terp fans are just as likely to key their own cars though.

[DukeDevil]

Terp fans are just as likely to key their own cars though.

That's because they're usually too drunk and angry to get the key into the door lock on the first 5 tries

regarding the OP, pretty good list, it contains all the teams I wouldn't want to see. That being said...I kind of agree with the DBR front page article...this team responds to big games and adversity, I think they'd do better to get challenging teams.

[mr. synellinden]

Michigan St. is looking like they're going to be higher than a 6. If they are a 4/5, that would be a scary sweet 16 game.

[InSpades]

San Diego St. seems scary. Their offense is terrible but their defense is stellar. Their size looked like Kentucky on the court. Would not want to face them as our 8/9.

[uh_no]

I hope that the Seeding committee takes into account that one of the only reasons we didn't win the conference regular season is because of the stupid unbalanced schedule, in which our schedule was much, much more difficult than UVA's. Not winning the conference tourney is entirely on the players.

and yet we lost to state and miami....and UVA didn't. they won the games they needed to. they didn't really lay any eggs all year, and we did.

[MarkD83]

North Florida would be a nightmare 16 seed. They put 5 shooters on the floor and drive.

Don't laugh.

I think you just identified who will play Duke in the first round.

[hurleyfor3]

If you see ten troubles coming down the road you can be sure that nine of the will run into the ditch in front of you and you will only have to deal with one of them. --Calvin Coolidge