Phase VI: The ACC Tournament

[Bob Green]

ACC Tournament time has arrived and this Duke team is on a mission to win the championship. There has been some ridiculous talk in the media and on fansite message boards advocating the advantages of the Blue Devils bowing out early and resting up for the NCAA Tournament. Ridiculous! Ridiculous! Ridiculous! It is time to go win the ACC Championship, because championships last a lifetime. The young men who comprise the 2015 Duke Blue Devils have won zero ACC Championships. Their time is right now!

Health: We got a scare when Jahlil Okafor turned his ankle in the first Carolina game and now Tyus Jones is suffering back spasms. Winslow has a cracked rib, Jefferson was banged up earlier in the season and about five guys are nursing bad ankles. Overall, team health has been good throughout the season, but all these little things are concerning. We have a very solid eight man rotation, which is capable of winning this tournament; however, we will need all eight players healthy and available over the grueling three day event.

Defense: This end of the court remains a work in progress even though the calendar reads March. Man-to-Man, 3-2 Zone, 2-1-2 Zone, Zone Press - Coach K has thrown his M2M or bust philosophy to the wind and tried a little bit of everything with this team. Sometimes it works such as in last night's win over Carolina or the 52-15 1st half beatdown of Wake Forest and sometimes it struggles such as against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.

Big Line-up versus Small Line-up: Coach K has leaned heavily on the small line-up down the stretch of the regular season. Over the final five games, Matt Jones has moved into the starting line-up and Grayson Allen is coming on strong at the right time of the season. Coach K will certainly continue to mix and match line-ups to gain an advantage over the specific opponent on the court, but it appears the small line-up will be his default option.

Rotation Players 7 & 8: Will Grayson Allen and Marshall Plumlee provide productive minutes at the bottom end of the rotation? Having to play three games in three days will test team endurance so production from Allen and Plumlee off the bench would go a long way toward keeping the top six rotation guys fresh during the tournament grind. As stated above, Allen is peaking at the right time so all indications is he will provide production. With Plumlee, it is still a wait and see, game-by-game situation. Will he breakout in Greensboro?

Match-ups: We earned the critical double bye into the quarterfinals and we are on the opposite side of the bracket from #1 Seed Virginia setting up a potential championship game rematch. However, there is a lot of basketball to be played before we can start talking about the Cavaliers. If the higher seeded teams win, Duke will be facing N.C. State in the quarterfinals on Thursday and Notre Dame in the semifinals on Friday, but we all know chalk rarely holds. Survive and advance is the name of the game in March. Personally, I will be rooting for the Wolfpack on Wednesday because I want another chance at them and I'm confident the team feels the same.

Confidence/Team Swagger: The team is strutting into the tournament riding an 11 game winning streak that started with a win over the then unbeaten Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville and includes two big wins over our archrival Carolina Tar Heels. Team confidence is through the roof heading to Greensboro. This team is looking special. The players are having fun playing the game with each other. This category could have been named "Team Chemistry" and been equally accurate.

March Madness has arrived! Let's all pull together and root the team on to winning the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship in Greensboro. Let's Go Duke!!! I'm sure I've overlooked about a zillion and one things we need to discuss so I am counting on the DBR denizens to pipe in and save my bacon.

[fuse]

Didn't want to see this thread languish on page 2.

Time to get a championship.

Great job Bob.

I agree health is first priority.

I mentioned early in the season the team appeared to lack toughness / killer instinct. I fully retract that- at this point in time, our team is playing with a hunger and will to win that I appreciate and enjoy watching.

I do think another key part of this phase is does Winslow continue his Jekyll and Hyde act of non-basketball play fouls or does he rein it in? Another play like UNC or UVa and I think in the NCAAs he does not get the benefit of the doubt (if he even does now). I love the energy, the emotion, the will to win and refuse to lose attitude Winslow brings to the team. I'd prefer he keep playing his high motor go hard all the time style of basketball cleanly.

I am expecting that Jahlil will re-establish his dominant post presence (statistically). I really liked the "Jahs" hype video for player of the year
Play the defense our team is capable of, stay out of foul trouble and I like our chances against the field.

This has been such an awesome season to watch- I am going to thoroughly enjoy what's left.

Let's Go Duke!

[superdave]

Health: We got a scare when Jahlil Okafor turned his ankle in the first Carolina game and now Tyus Jones is suffering back spasms. Winslow has a cracked rib, Jefferson was banged up earlier in the season and about five guys are nursing bad ankles. Overall, team health has been good throughout the season, but all these little things are concerning. We have a very solid eight man rotation, which is capable of winning this tournament; however, we will need all eight players healthy and available over the grueling three day event.

Defense: This end of the court remains a work in progress even though the calendar reads March. Man-to-Man, 3-2 Zone, 2-1-2 Zone, Zone Press - Coach K has thrown his M2M or bust philosophy to the wind and tried a little bit of everything with this team. Sometimes it works such as in last night's win over Carolina or the 52-15 1st half beatdown of Wake Forest and sometimes it struggles such as against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.

Big Line-up versus Small Line-up: Coach K has leaned heavily on the small line-up down the stretch of the regular season. Over the final five games, Matt Jones has moved into the starting line-up and Grayson Allen is coming on strong at the right time of the season. Coach K will certainly continue to mix and match line-ups to gain an advantage over the specific opponent on the court, but it appears the small line-up will be his default option.

Rotation Players 7 & 8: Will Grayson Allen and Marshall Plumlee provide productive minutes at the bottom end of the rotation? Having to play three games in three days will test team endurance so production from Allen and Plumlee off the bench would go a long way toward keeping the top six rotation guys fresh during the tournament grind. As stated above, Allen is peaking at the right time so all indications is he will provide production. With Plumlee, it is still a wait and see, game-by-game situation. Will he breakout in Greensboro?




Thanks for the phase post, Bob. And thank you for keeping health at the top. We seem to be in good shape now and winning cures a lot of ills.

Team defense is working because Coach K is able to adjust quickly to our opponent and to help keep our guys focused. I think the unpredictability of what we may switch into is working well and has the team playing sharper on that end. We have been able to speed up several of our recent opponents and create live ball turnovers. That is a good sign to me.

Coach K seems to like playing Winslow at the 4, but is not wedded to it. He played Amile big minutes in the second half Saturday night which countered Unc's size and enabled us to trap. I have not seen too many issues with us being undersized. The one time we got hurt was vs Carolina the first game, with Jah immobile on a bum ankle. Unc was able to ramp up their aggression on the boards and build a lead. State could do that as well in the ACCT with their size, but we should be game-planning for that.

Our rotation is in great shape. I like the energy that Plumlee, Allen and Amile break off the bench. Each guy works hard on the defensive end. I would love to see Plumlee foul less, but he has had some really strong stretches this season. Let's hope he dials in for the post-season run.

It would be nice to build some leads in the tourney games and spread the minutes around. I do like our evening time slots and our propensity to step up in big games. They are all big from here on out, so I am hoping we keep the foot on the gas and do not play down to anyone's level.

[roywhite]

In our 11-game win streak leading up to the ACC Tournament, Jahlil (in 10 games) has averaged 15.5 points and 8.8 rebounds.

The team is obviously winning -- what is the significance, if any, of his lower scoring?
Has Duke changed it's offensive approach?
Have teams employed more (or more effective) double teams?
Has Jah been hampered a good bit by his ankle injury?

I'm thinking that the wider distribution of scoring has been a good thing and due to better ball movement, including good passing from Jahlil.

Thoughts as to his scoring level and team success going forward?

[Bob Green]

Have teams employed more (or more effective) double teams?



This was discussed in the Carolina Post Game Thread. Duke seemed to be having Okafor hold the ball in order to invite the double team so he could pass out of it to an open shooter or cutter. With the offensive talent level of the other four Blue Devils on the court, this seems like a very solid tactic. And if the defense backs off the double team, Okafor is practically unguardable by a lone defender if he receives the ball in good position.

So my thought is Duke is successfully countering the double team.

[CDu]

In our 11-game win streak leading up to the ACC Tournament, Jahlil (in 10 games) has averaged 15.5 points and 8.8 rebounds.

The team is obviously winning -- what is the significance, if any, of his lower scoring?
Has Duke changed it's offensive approach?
Have teams employed more (or more effective) double teams?
Has Jah been hampered a good bit by his ankle injury?

I'm thinking that the wider distribution of scoring has been a good thing and due to better ball movement, including good passing from Jahlil.

Thoughts as to his scoring level and team success going forward?

I think a few things are at play in his reduced role:
- his health (for a while, his ankle wasn't 100%; it may still not be)
- the re-emergence of Winslow
- playing against an FSU team that had 3 7-footers who took turns banging on him all game
- the quirky Wake game in which Grayson Allen went bananas and we didn't need him to score (he played just 19 minutes)
- a subtle shift in strategy by Coach K in some recent games to use him as more of a decoy in the UNC game

If you take away the weird Wake game and the FSU game, in his previous 8 games Okafor averaged 16.8 ppg and 10 rpg. So more or less his norms.

Still, it is nice that the offense is clearly not reliant on him to have a monster game. With Cook, Jones, and Winslow as regular contributors and Allen and Matt Jones occasionally providing a spark as well, we're in very good shape offensively.

[Henderson]

This was discussed in the Carolina Post Game Thread. Duke seemed to be having Okafor hold the ball in order to invite the double team so he could pass out of it to an open shooter or cutter. With the offensive talent level of the other four Blue Devils on the court, this seems like a very solid tactic. And if the defense backs off the double team, Okafor is practically unguardable by a lone defender if he receives the ball in good position.

So my thought is Duke is successfully countering the double team.

That sounds like the right response to Jay Bilas who, during the Beatdown on the Hump, kept saying that Okafor needed to move quickly to the basket whenever to got the ball down low, to beat the double team. Maybe the plan all along was to get Jahlil to invite the double team and pass out of it. If it doesn't come, or the second defender backs off, Jah goes to the hoop. If the double team comes, pass out of it. That would explain Jah's deliberateness after catching the ball: Wait for the defense to expose one of two weaknesses (Jah 1-on-1 or unguarded shooter), then exploit that one.

That K guy might have a future in basketball.

[sagegrouse]

That sounds like the right response to Jay Bilas who, during the Beatdown on the Hump, kept saying that Okafor needed to move quickly to the basket whenever to got the ball down low, to beat the double team. Maybe the plan all along was to get Jahlil to invite the double team and pass out of it. If it doesn't come, or the second defender backs off, Jah goes to the hoop. If the double team comes, pass out of it. That would explain Jah's deliberateness after catching the ball: Wait for the defense to expose one of two weaknesses (Jah 1-on-1 or unguarded shooter), then exploit that one.

That K guy might have a future in basketball.

Okafor is a load to guard. It is not surprising to me that, as the opponents' big men wear down, he seems to come on strong in the second half.

[roywhite]

Duke combined season stats (http://www1.nmnathletics.com/fls/4200/stats/2014-15/basketball-m/2014-15_MBB_Season_Stats.pdf)

Some interesting points, which have been touched on at other times:

3-point shooting -- what a weapon
Team is shooting 39.2% from 3-point with remarkable balance
Quinn 40.4%, Justise 39.8%, Tyus 40.0%, Matt 36.7%, and Grayson 38.5%

2-tiered foul shooting
Ball handlers with outstanding accuracy from the line -- Quinn 88.5%, Tyus 88.2%, and now Grayson 86.8%
Inside guys struggling from the line -- Jahlil 52.4%, Amile 55.4%, and Justise 59.8%
More free throws made than opponents have attempted

Rebounding
One of our better rebounding teams, with a +6.5 rebounds/game vs opponents

[Bob Green]

That sounds like the right response to Jay Bilas who, during the Beatdown on the Hump, kept saying that Okafor needed to move quickly to the basket whenever to got the ball down low, to beat the double team.

The credit for the analysis goes to rsvman. Here is his post from the Carolina Post Game thread:


Fun game to watch, as usual. Very happy for the victory.

I just have one comment to make; a slightly different take on a topic that has been discussed a bit in this thread and by the talking heads (or disembodied voices) on the television, too, and that is the thing about Jah's not making a quick move after receiving the pass on or near the blocks.

Like everybody else, for a while I was looking at the tv and thinking to myself that he should be quicker, and make that move before the double-team had time to be organized. Then I really watched, and it occurred to me that maybe, just maybe, he was holding the ball a long time on PURPOSE, so that the double team WOULD come. Maybe Coach K told him to do that. For one thing, it's not as easy to score inside against them because they are long and big inside; for two, we have a lot of good shooters on the perimeter.

So, the point is, I'm thinking that maybe this was a deliberate strategy specifically for the game against UNC. Have Jahlil hold the ball until the double-team comes, and then pass to the open shooter for a three.

Obviously, this is just conjecture. But it seemed to me that things generally worked out pretty well when he got double-teamed, and that's when I thought that maybe there was a method to the madness.

I desire to ensure credit goes where credit is deserved and this double team tactic analysis belongs to rsvman.

[CDu]

Duke combined season stats (http://www1.nmnathletics.com/fls/4200/stats/2014-15/basketball-m/2014-15_MBB_Season_Stats.pdf)

Some interesting points, which have been touched on at other times:

3-point shooting -- what a weapon
Team is shooting 39.2% from 3-point with remarkable balance
Quinn 40.4%, Justise 39.8%, Tyus 40.0%, Matt 36.7%, and Grayson 38.5%

2-tiered foul shooting
Ball handlers with outstanding accuracy from the line -- Quinn 88.5%, Tyus 88.2%, and now Grayson 86.8%
Inside guys struggling from the line -- Jahlil 52.4%, Amile 55.4%, and Justise 59.8%
More free throws made than opponents have attempted

Rebounding
One of our better rebounding teams, with a +6.5 rebounds/game vs opponents

The 3pt shooting is especially impressive, as many folks were very concerned going into the season about our 3pt shooting this year. And add to that that we lost a guy who many felt was our best 3pt shooter (Sulaimon) mid-season. It's really impressive that we're shooting nearly 40% from 3 anyway.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Duke combined season stats (http://www1.nmnathletics.com/fls/4200/stats/2014-15/basketball-m/2014-15_MBB_Season_Stats.pdf)

Some interesting points, which have been touched on at other times:

3-point shooting -- what a weapon
Team is shooting 39.2% from 3-point with remarkable balance
Quinn 40.4%, Justise 39.8%, Tyus 40.0%, Matt 36.7%, and Grayson 38.5%

2-tiered foul shooting
Ball handlers with outstanding accuracy from the line -- Quinn 88.5%, Tyus 88.2%, and now Grayson 86.8%
Inside guys struggling from the line -- Jahlil 52.4%, Amile 55.4%, and Justise 59.8%
More free throws made than opponents have attempted

Rebounding
One of our better rebounding teams, with a +6.5 rebounds/game vs opponents

Thanks Roy White. These are great stats.

There was a DBR consensus in the off-season that this team would have two potential pitfalls: 3pt shooting and leadership.

I think it's safe to say that 3pt shooting has been incredible. We may not have 1 "elite" shooter, but we have a great shooter in Quinn and very good shooters in Justise, Tyus, Matt, and Grayson. An incredible luxury to have. It also helps to have a magnet in Okafor drawing double and triple teams.

On the leadership front, that's more than covered. In Laura Kelley's article, she mentioned that Coach K referred to Quinn as one of the "best leaders he's ever coached" (or something along those lines). Quinn has been absolutely outstanding, helping to mitigate the risk of 3pt shooting and a dearth in leadership. Can't be more proud of my #2 jersey (I admit that I got it for Nolan, but having Quinn as the next #2 doesn't hurt. Who gets it next time, if anyone?)

[Henderson]

The 3pt shooting is especially impressive, as many folks were very concerned going into the season about our 3pt shooting this year. And add to that that we lost a guy who many felt was our best 3pt shooter (Sulaimon) mid-season. It's really impressive that we're shooting nearly 40% from 3 anyway.

Impressive indeed. I'd credit the following:

1. We have several guys who can reliably hit an open 3.

2. Okafor's presence gives Duke more open 3s.

3. We have a coach who knows how to balance ##1 and 2. Draw and dish.

4. We've got some guys who can hit contested 3s.

If this team loses, it will be in a game when Duke shoots really poorly from 3. Duke isn't as susceptible as in the past to the "win by the 3, die by the 3" because Duke has so many other weapons -- Okafor down low; dribble-drive; etc. -- but our guys will need to hit shots. If they do so consistently, I like our chances. But it only takes one game in which an opponent effectively counters the low-post, cuts off the dribble-drive, and the open shooters don't hit. [Good luck, opponents, winning that trifecta.]

That's just offense; a lot goes on with defense too. But we need to score to win games. And our continued ability to hit open 3s will play a significant role in deciding how far Duke goes.

[roywhite]

Impressive indeed. I'd credit the following:

1. We have several guys who can reliably hit an open 3.

2. Okafor's presence gives Duke more open 3s.

3. We have a coach who knows how to balance ##1 and 2. Draw and dish.

4. We've got some guys who can hit contested 3s.

If this team loses, it will be in a game when Duke shoots really poorly from 3. Duke isn't as susceptible as in the past to the "win by the 3, die by the 3" because Duke has so many other weapons -- Okafor down low; dribble-drive; etc. -- but our guys will need to hit shots. If they do so consistently, I like our chances. But it only takes one game in which an opponent effectively counters the low-post, cuts off the dribble-drive, and the open shooters don't hit. [Good luck, opponents, winning that trifecta.]

That's just offense; a lot goes on with defense too. But we need to score to win games. And our continued ability to hit open 3s will play a significant role in deciding how far Duke goes.

Yeah, and one more:
5. We've got really good passers and overall good ball movement. Jahlil and Justise pass very well for their position. And Tyus especially is great at locating the open shooter, whether in transition or half-court offense.

[CDu]

Yeah, and one more:
5. We've got really good passers and overall good ball movement. Jahlil and Justise pass very well for their position. And Tyus especially is great at locating the open shooter, whether in transition or half-court offense.

Having Winslow at the PF spot makes us so tough offensively. With Cook, Jones, Winslow and M. Jones/Allen, we have four very capable ballhandlers on the floor. That makes us really difficult to press. Well, that and it is virtually impossible to press Tyus Jones anyway, and it is just a great situation.

[NYBri]

Yeah, and one more:
5. We've got really good passers and overall good ball movement. Jahlil and Justise pass very well for their position. And Tyus especially is great at locating the open shooter, whether in transition or half-court offense.

And another weapon is that after we drop some 3s on them, it opens the lane for Tyus Cook (and his bro, Quinn Jones) to take it to the rim and draw and-ones late. Exhibit A: UNC in Derm.

[David Bunkley]

I pretty much agree with everything that has been posted on this thread.

That leads me to believe that not only do we have a good understanding of our team, but they have a good understanding of themselves.

Much like the 2010 team (and a lot of other successful teams), everyone on this team seems to have a strong grasp of what their role is and what it takes to succeed at that role.

With this team, you very rarely see anyone trying to do something that doesn't fall in line with their role and I think that bodes well for our future.

Let's win the ACC.

#GODUKE

[Henderson]

Having Winslow at the PF spot makes us so tough offensively. With Cook, Jones, Winslow and M. Jones/Allen, we have four very capable ballhandlers on the floor. That makes us really difficult to press. Well, that and it is virtually impossible to press Tyus Jones anyway, and it is just a great situation.

See, that's why I think Justise Winslow is the offensive key to this Duke team.

Opponents can game plan around Okafor. And they can game plan around our excellent guards. It's obviously more diffucult if Duke has both a dominant inside player and outstanding guard play. But that's an inside/out combo that opposing coaches can plan around, despite its difficulty. It's super tough, given the skills that Jah and the outside players bring.

But I don't know what team can (1)successfully guard Jah, (2) cover Quinn and Tyus, and (3) reliably defend an aggressive go-to-the-rim power slasher who can also shoot from 3. Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Justise Winslow. It's just too much if all are playing within their season medium performances.

Then there are Grayson, Marshall, Matt, and Amile.

But the lynchpin to me seems to be Justise. He gives Duke that third threat. And that's the one that'll get 'em.

[MCFinARL]

ACC Tournament time has arrived and this Duke team is on a mission to win the championship. There has been some ridiculous talk in the media and on fansite message boards advocating the advantages of the Blue Devils bowing out early and resting up for the NCAA Tournament. Ridiculous! Ridiculous! Ridiculous! It is time to go win the ACC Championship, because championships last a lifetime. The young men who comprise the 2015 Duke Blue Devils have won zero ACC Championships. Their time is right now!


Thought your whole post was great but will focus on this because no one else has so far. I couldn't agree more, for two reasons:

1. As you point out, no one on this team has an ACC championship--and for at least three (counting Sean Kelly) and maybe as many as 5 of them, this will be their last/only chance. (In the case of Okafor, I'll grant it is "likely" his last/only chance and not definitely, but I'm trying to be a realist here.) Win one for each other, and win for Quinn!

2. Deliberately letting up and risking an early loss in order to save energy for NCAA's seems like the last thing this team should do--it would destroy the momentum and chemistry they have built up over their winning streak. And it would give them practice playing in a way that they don't want to play going forward. My kids used to have a sprint swim coach who decried most coaches' practice of having swimmers do endless laps at reduced speed with lazy turns--practice swimming slowly, learn how to swim slowly, was his motto, and I think it might apply here--practice playing without caring whether you win or lose, learn how to play without caring whether you win or lose.

[Hingeknocker]

I have to agree with everyone who is pointing out how tremendous of a 3pt shooting team we have turned out to be. It's hard to contextualize that being a potential weakness before the season started, and truly the balance that the team offers through the versatility of Justise and the passing/ball movement abilities through Jah.

During the first month or so of this season, I found myself wishing we had a guy like JJ on this year's team - that his lethal 3pt ability would be the perfect complement to our roster. But now having watched our season play out, I think this offense works even better the way that it's constructed. Now, of course, you give me 9 games of eligibility for JJ Redick and I say sign him up! But looking back on JJ's senior season, we were #4 in KenPom's AdjO compared to #2 this year, but at 116.9 in 2006, compared to 122.8 this year. Different eras of college basketball aside, I think that shows a significant level of balance for this year's team, that hopefully will prevent us from being eliminated like we were in 2006. A lot more weapons on this year's team, that all works cohesively as a unit scoring baskets in a lot of different ways.

[Neals384]

I would add "stay out of foul trouble" to the list of keys for the tournament. This applies to all, but especially Justise, who has fouled out 4 times in the last 8 games.

[-jk]

See, that's why I think Justise Winslow is the offensive key to this Duke team.

Opponents can game plan around Okafor. And they can game plan around our excellent guards. It's obviously more diffucult if Duke has both a dominant inside player and outstanding guard play. But that's an inside/out combo that opposing coaches can plan around, despite its difficulty. It's super tough, given the skills that Jah and the outside players bring.

But I don't know what team can (1)successfully guard Jah, (2) cover Quinn and Tyus, and (3) reliably defend an aggressive go-to-the-rim power slasher who can also shoot from 3. Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Justise Winslow. It's just too much if all are playing within their season medium performances.

Then there are Grayson, Marshall, Matt, and Amile.

But the lynchpin to me seems to be Justise. He gives Duke that third threat. And that's the one that'll get 'em.


Jah? Tyus? Quinn? Justise?

It's about balance. They try to take something away, we throw something else at 'em.

I like it!

-jk

[gam7]

And another weapon is that after we drop some 3s on them, it opens the lane for Tyus Cook (and his bro, Quinn Jones) to take it to the rim and draw and-ones late. Exhibit A: UNC in Derm.

Quincy Jones?

[neemizzle]

But I don't know what team can (1)successfully guard Jah, (2) cover Quinn and Tyus, and (3) reliably defend an aggressive go-to-the-rim power slasher who can also shoot from 3. Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Justise Winslow. It's just too much if all are playing within their season medium performances.

Then there are Grayson, Marshall, Matt, and Amile.

But the lynchpin to me seems to be Justise. He gives Duke that third threat. And that's the one that'll get 'em.

You bring up great points here. I think in our losses this year (I'm not counting ND, we shot ourselves in the foot on the foul line, I don't care what anyone says) but in our losses at State and against Miami, We didn't really understand those points. I think confidence comes with winning games. I seem to remember after that Miami game, people were ready to write this team off and they continued to win. Then after the ND loss and the dismissal of Sheed, the naysayers kept on. Then this winning streak started.

We're not an easy team to guard because of us gaining confidence. It's like I've said all year, even when Sheed and Semi were on the team, on any given night, one of our guys can go off for 20+. Other than UK, I don't see other teams that have that blessing.

Can't wait for this week. I'll be there Wednesday and Thursday (and if they make title game I'll be there).

LGD :cool:

[Kedsy]

ACC Tournament time has arrived and this Duke team is on a mission to win the championship. There has been some ridiculous talk in the media and on fansite message boards advocating the advantages of the Blue Devils bowing out early and resting up for the NCAA Tournament. Ridiculous! Ridiculous! Ridiculous! It is time to go win the ACC Championship, because championships last a lifetime. The young men who comprise the 2015 Duke Blue Devils have won zero ACC Championships. Their time is right now!

Health:

Defense:

I was out of town and just got around to reading this. Great job, Bob!

I join whoever said thanks for keeping health at the top. I think health is the key to the post-season for us. All those "minor" injuries could turn into major injuries in a blink, and at this point I don't think we can afford to lose anybody else.

And I also agree that defense is the second key. We seem to be getting better, but our defensive efficiency numbers haven't really improved. Hopefully our D clicks from here on in.

I also think that if Duke can continue successfully playing the various full court and three-quarter court presses and backcourt traps then we're a much more dangerous team. Even if it doesn't provide turnovers but simply eats 8 seconds off the shot clock before the opponent can get into its half-court offense, it's a big benefit for Duke. Hopefully, that keeps rolling for us too.


Confidence/Team Swagger:

I think Quinn is the leader of the team, but Tyus is the personality of the team. In almost all our games he's been so cool, calm, and collected, and he steps up biggest in big games and at end of games when we need him most. But in our three losses, he seemed tentative, thrown back a little. Especially State and Miami. I believe the team reacts to however Tyus is feeling.

It's largely that factor (Tyus's mindset) that I believe plays into my hypothesis that our team is way better in rematch games. Because Tyus knows what to expect and can't be thrown off-balance (or at least can't be easily thrown off-balance -- who knows how he'll react to tournament games).


The 3pt shooting is especially impressive, as many folks were very concerned going into the season about our 3pt shooting this year. And add to that that we lost a guy who many felt was our best 3pt shooter (Sulaimon) mid-season. It's really impressive that we're shooting nearly 40% from 3 anyway.

I think the reason our team is shooting better than expected from three is we're taking better three-point shots. According to HoopMath (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2015.php), over 92% of our three-point shots have been assisted this season, compared to 85.4% in 2014, 81.9% in 2013, and 84.9% in 2012. In my mind, taking better catch-and-shoot threes is what allows this team to shoot a similar percentage to the past two years (39.5% in 2014 and 39.9% in 2013) and a better percentage than in 2012 (37.1%), despite maybe not having as many "pure" three-point shooters than we have in the past.


See, that's why I think Justise Winslow is the offensive key to this Duke team.

Funny, I think Justise is the defensive key to the team. When he's on, he erases a lot of defensive mistakes.

Another defensive key is Amile, who seems to have been in a prolonged slump lately. I think we need Amile to earn 20+ minutes a game so we can reap the benefits of his leadership, communication, defense, and rebounding.

Oh, yeah... GO DUKE!

[DukieInBrasil]

ACC Tournament time has arrived and this Duke team is on a mission to win the championship. There has been some ridiculous talk in the media and on fansite message boards advocating the advantages of the Blue Devils bowing out early and resting up for the NCAA Tournament. Ridiculous! Ridiculous! Ridiculous! It is time to go win the ACC Championship, because championships last a lifetime. The young men who comprise the 2015 Duke Blue Devils have won zero ACC Championships. Their time is right now!

Health: So far, so good. Seems that the early blowout conditions allowed K to rest Jahlil, and let our subs play more.

[/QUOTE]Defense: [/QUOTE] K threw out some new wrinkles that totally threw State off balance. Wow, what a virtuoso, getting his team to buy into new defensive schemes all the way to the end of the season.

[/QUOTE]Big Line-up versus Small Line-up: [/QUOTE] K went withe small lineup to start with vs. State, and since it was a blowout, Okafor sat for more than half the game, so it seems that the Small line-up(s) was the most prominent.

[/QUOTE]Rotation Players 7 & 8: [/QUOTE] Both Allen and MP3 played very well, MP3 went for a career high in points, so they´re doing pretty durn well so far. Plus, since they both played significant minutes, they A) helped gain some rest for the starters, which will be crucial for 3 games in 3 days, and B) built boatloads of confidence in themselves (i hope) but also gained some more from their teammates, which will be important during the next 8 games.

[/QUOTE]Match-ups: Well, we got State in Game 1 and we´ll get ND in Game 2, so the line has held so far.

[/QUOTE]Confidence/Team Swagger: Swagger was swagged all over State, who could not figure out a way to unswag how completely outswagged they got. Duke has swagger in spades right now, and it couldn´t be happening at a better time!

[/QUOTE]March Madness has arrived! Let's all pull together and root the team on to winning the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship in Greensboro. Let's Go Duke!!! I'm sure I've overlooked about a zillion and one things we need to discuss so I am counting on the DBR denizens to pipe in and save my bacon.[/QUOTE]
I´m with you on this one! Seems to me like you did a pretty good job of anticipating some key factors, all of which are already being addressed.

[COYS]

Another defensive key is Amile, who seems to have been in a prolonged slump lately. I think we need Amile to earn 20+ minutes a game so we can reap the benefits of his leadership, communication, defense, and rebounding.

Oh, yeah... GO DUKE!

I think you're right on about the team needing Amile. Amile is in a weird spot because he's actually pretty good at what he does best -- hanging out around the rim, scoring on nice passes and putbacks, gathering offensive and defensive boards, and guarding multiple positions. The problem is, he's not as good around the basket as Jahlil is, he can't guard "down" as many positions as Justise, he can't shoot jump shots, and he's a liability at the line. To create space for Big Jah (or, as has been the case recently, to relentlessly punish teams for doubling him), it really works to have Jahlil surrounded by 4 shooters. As good as Jahlil is as a passer, he is only mediocre at finding Amile under the basket when a double team comes. As such, Amile just doesn't fit the offense as well as Justise at the 4 spot. Defensively, Amile is a serious weapon, but Justise is also a weapon and has the added ability to space the floor on offense. I think Amile is fully capable of having big games for this team, but the way the team has developed, his lack of a jump shot has really become a liability.

That being said, Amile still made a ton of winning plays against UNC (as Jay Bilas pointed out a number of times), he still can pull down some beastly rebounds, and he's still one of of our top two defenders. He's adjusting to a new role in the middle of the season, which is tough for anyone. And, not to get too far ahead, but if all goes well on our end and we face a really big team like Kentucky, we will absolutely need his long arms and nose for the ball. I have faith that he's going to come up big for us in the post-season, even if his role remains more limited the rest of the way out.

[Saratoga2]

Big vs small lineup:

To me Justise is a great player who still has some freshman issues, but the team seems best with him in for a number of reasons.
1. If he is guarded by a #4, he can and does take him off the dribble. Bigs have to honor his three point shooting and have to pull up close, which makes it easy for him to blow by.
2. He is a physical specimen who can guard most #4s and is quick enough to swich. His defense is very effective.
3. His freshman tendency to foul out and also to telegraph is passes is to be expected but he still is our best overall option at the #4.

Guard Play:
We have seen it many times that in tournament play solid guard play is essential. We have a great tandem in Tyus and Quinn who are not turnover prone and in fact are excellent ball handlers and passers. Both can score in many ways and are deadly from the line. Recently Grayson has shown that he can substitute at guard and has all the same qualities. All three can defend. Can't forget Matt who is also a solid defender and can score in a number of ways.

Bigs:
With so much capability from the rest of the team, it is possible to minimize the impact of Okafor. That would be a mistake. He either scores efficiently or draws defenses to him so as to open lanes and three point shots for are other talented players. As we saw against NC State, MP3 may have developed enough this year to put pressure on defenses and Amile is there on the defensive and rebounding side.

Coaching:

Coach K seems to have become more flexible with his defensive alignments and his arrangements have seemed to confuse even teams with good offensives. Perhaps this year he feels he has the players who can execute zones and pressure defenses more effectively.

[dukelifer]

The 3pt shooting is especially impressive, as many folks were very concerned going into the season about our 3pt shooting this year. And add to that that we lost a guy who many felt was our best 3pt shooter (Sulaimon) mid-season. It's really impressive that we're shooting nearly 40% from 3 anyway.

I was concerned about the 3 point shooting going into the season. But folks have come along over the year. Matt Jones is getting much better. We are beginning to see his high school skill set and what he can do with his feet set. He has hit big shots all year. I am not in love with Justise shooting 3's but he too can do damage when set. Fortunately he knows his strength is taking it to the hoop and only shoots when wide open. Tyus turns out not to be a great shooter but he is a clutch shooter and in some ways that may be better. Quinn is much better all around this year than I expected. He has expanded his game to hit a step back and seems to move better on the floor to get separation. I thought Grayson would be a diamond in the rough with the best shooting form of all the Duke players. We are beginning to see what is possible from him. Basketball at this level is about confidence and he is now confident- almost to the point of being cocky. He may be the X factor going forward- a bit like Dawkins in 2010. This team is playing very well and at times plays better with Okafor on the bench. But the big guy is such a weapon and opens everything up in general and can give points when needed. Lets hope the magic continues.

[Kedsy]

I was concerned about the 3 point shooting going into the season. But folks have come along over the year. Matt Jones is getting much better. We are beginning to see his high school skill set and what he can do with his feet set. He has hit big shots all year. I am not in love with Justise shooting 3's but he too can do damage when set. Fortunately he knows his strength is taking it to the hoop and only shoots when wide open. Tyus turns out not to be a great shooter but he is a clutch shooter and in some ways that may be better. Quinn is much better all around this year than I expected. He has expanded his game to hit a step back and seems to move better on the floor to get separation. I thought Grayson would be a diamond in the rough with the best shooting form of all the Duke players. We are beginning to see what is possible from him.

THREE-POINT SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, 2014-15 SEASON:

Quinn Cook: 40.9%
Justise Winslow: 39.6%
Tyus Jones: 39.2%
Matt Jones: 37.4%
Grayson Allen: 37.2%

I'm curious why you are "not in love" with Justise shooting threes and think Tyus has "turn[ed] out not to be a great shooter," but seem OK with Matt and Grayson taking shots they hit at a lower percentage than Justise and Tyus? (I agree that Grayson's form is very good; not sure if it's better than Quinn's, as you suggest, though.)

Also, Quinn hits very few step backs (though I think he did hit one against State). In fact, 92% of Quinn's three-pointers are of the assisted catch-and-shoot variety.

[gcashwell]

THREE-POINT SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, 2014-15 SEASON:

Quinn Cook: 40.9%
Justise Winslow: 39.6%
Tyus Jones: 39.2%
Matt Jones: 37.4%
Grayson Allen: 37.2%
Marshall Plumlee: 100.0%

I'm curious why you are "not in love" with Justise shooting threes and think Tyus has "turn[ed] out not to be a great shooter," but seem OK with Matt and Grayson taking shots they hit at a lower percentage than Justise and Tyus? (I agree that Grayson's form is very good; not sure if it's better than Quinn's, as you suggest, though.)

Also, Quinn hits very few step backs (though I think he did hit one against State). In fact, 92% of Quinn's three-pointers are of the assisted catch-and-shoot variety.

FTFY.