This Week in the Top 25 (3/2 - 3/8)

[Bob Green]

Reviewing this week's schedule, I was surprised to see so few Top 25 versus Top 25 games (no ACC games are listed or discussed in this thread):

Monday

Oklahoma (15) at Iowa St (17): Oklahoma won the first meeting 94-83. This time the Sooners have to travel to Ames and win on the road.

Tuesday

West Virginia (20) at Kansas (9): the Mountaineers were solidly beat in Waco last week, will they fare better in Lawrence?

Saturday

Butler (21) at Providence (24): the Friars won the first meeting 66-62.

Kansas (9) at Oklahoma (15): Kansas needs to keep winning to stay in the #2 Seed discussion in the NCAAT. The Jayhawks won the first meeting 85-78.

Sunday

Wisconsin (6) at Ohio State (23): Wisconsin needs to win out to get back into the #1 Seed discussion.

Posters should feel free to add and discuss any game(s) they are interested in watching and discussing. With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching, there is a lot to talk about. Any and all references to Lunardi will be redacted! Okay, I'm kidding around...but just barely.

[CDu]

Could be a rough week or a terrific week for Kansas. Lose twice, and they could be hurting for even a 3-seed. Yes, they've played a very tough schedule, but 8 losses prior to the conference tournament would make it very difficult to consider them among the top-12 teams entering the tournament. Conversely, winning both games would almost assuredly lock them into a 2-seed. With that brutal schedule, to be sitting at only 6 losses with a ton of strong wins would be hard for 8 other teams to top.

I think they win at home and lose at Oklahoma. And I think that would leave them right about where they probably are now: teetering between a 2-seed and a 3-seed.

[Wander]

I thought that if Kentucky were to lose an SEC game this season, it would be @LSU. But Georgia isn't horrible, so might as well keep an eye on that one too, probably before getting sad after UK builds a 20 point lead.

[dpslaw]

Davidson entertains VCU on Thursday. If they win that game and beat Duquesne on Saturday, they will finish in no worse than a two way tie for first in the A-10 and will likely get at least a few votes in next week's polls. Their only OOC losses this year were to UNC and UVa.

[Seattle Hoo]

Davidson entertains VCU on Thursday. If they win that game and beat Duquesne on Saturday, they will finish in no worse than a two way tie for first in the A-10 and will likely get at least a few votes in next week's polls. Their only OOC losses this year were to UNC and UVa.

Davidson absolutely is a tournament team. They're the only team to score 70 points against Virginia. They have a fantastic offense. If I remember correctly, they are pretty young. McKillop is an excellent coach. I'm happy to see them be successful in the A-10 after making a gutsy move. I hope they can sustain that level when he retires.

[TexHawk]

Could be a rough week or a terrific week for Kansas. Lose twice, and they could be hurting for even a 3-seed. Yes, they've played a very tough schedule, but 8 losses prior to the conference tournament would make it very difficult to consider them among the top-12 teams entering the tournament. Conversely, winning both games would almost assuredly lock them into a 2-seed. With that brutal schedule, to be sitting at only 6 losses with a ton of strong wins would be hard for 8 other teams to top.

I think they win at home and lose at Oklahoma. And I think that would leave them right about where they probably are now: teetering between a 2-seed and a 3-seed.

Interesting scenario. That would be a possible 5-way tie for the Big12 championship. The conference tournament would be a blood-bath.

Normally I would agree about the "teetering", but I just don't see a bunch of other teams banging on the door of a top 2 seed.

At this point, to me, there's a pretty clear delineation after the Top 8 resumes (UK, UVA, Zona, Duke, Nova, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, KU). If KU were to be in danger of losing a #2 seed, the team they would lose it to would come from a group of OU, ISU, Baylor, Wichita State, Louisville, Maryland(?), Notre Dame(?). None of those have more compelling resumes today, imo. Only one of the Big12 teams could possibly run the table, and KU swept Baylor while splitting with OU/ISU. But they all would have the "8 loss" thing to worry about too, OU already has 9. WSU is a wild card.

I think KU would have to lose the last two to drop to a #3, imo. Barring Maryland/Louisville destroying the field in their conference tournaments, or some love for WSU. I don't see dropping to a #4, barring 20 point routs in those games. The teams around #3-4 seeds are Utah (who KU already beat), Providence, and friggin Arkansas.


Btw, every year is different, but KU entered last year's conference tournament with 8 losses and no Joel Embiid, and still received a #2 seed. The RPI and SOS were (probably) the biggest reasons.

[Wander]

At this point, to me, there's a pretty clear delineation after the Top 8 resumes (UK, UVA, Zona, Duke, Nova, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, KU). If KU were to be in danger of losing a #2 seed, the team they would lose it to would come from a group of OU, ISU, Baylor, Wichita State, Louisville, Maryland(?), Notre Dame(?). None of those have more compelling resumes today, imo. Only one of the Big12 teams could possibly run the table, and KU swept Baylor while splitting with OU/ISU. But they all would have the "8 loss" thing to worry about too, OU already has 9. WSU is a wild card.


I generally agree with your grouping. And as one of the biggest supporters of Wichita State last year and someone who thinks they might have the best backcourt in the entire sport, I don't think they should get a 2 seed this year. A few teams on their schedule that are normally pretty good - New Mexico St, Memphis, the upper middle of the MVC - are pretty bad this season. They needed to sweep UNI to get that high of a seed IMO, based on what other teams are doing.

The real threats are surprise conference tournament winners, which always exist. Maryland is probably the biggest one - no embarrassing losses, a bunch of good wins, and not the awful non-conference SOS that Notre Dame has.

[TexHawk]

I generally agree with your grouping. And as one of the biggest supporters of Wichita State last year and someone who thinks they might have the best backcourt in the entire sport, I don't think they should get a 2 seed this year. A few teams on their schedule that are normally pretty good - New Mexico St, Memphis, the upper middle of the MVC - are pretty bad this season. They needed to sweep UNI to get that high of a seed IMO, based on what other teams are doing.

The real threats are surprise conference tournament winners, which always exist. Maryland is probably the biggest one - no embarrassing losses, a bunch of good wins, and not the awful non-conference SOS that Notre Dame has.

Speaking of WSU... Let's say the next couple of weeks plays out without major upsets, KU wins the Big12 outright, Wiscy wins Big 10, Duke/UVA wins ACC, Zona takes Pac12, KU/OU/Baylor/ISU wins the Big12 tournament. The #3 seed line would likely include OU, ISU, Baylor, and WSU. And since KU can't meet another Big12 tournament team in the S16, we might get the (projected) matchup that the Midwest/Great Plains has been clamoring for.

[Wander]

Speaking of WSU... Let's say the next couple of weeks plays out without major upsets, KU wins the Big12 outright, Wiscy wins Big 10, Duke/UVA wins ACC, Zona takes Pac12, KU/OU/Baylor/ISU wins the Big12 tournament. The #3 seed line would likely include OU, ISU, Baylor, and WSU. And since KU can't meet another Big12 tournament team in the S16, we might get the (projected) matchup that the Midwest/Great Plains has been clamoring for.

Well, don't underestimate Northern Iowa. Wichita needs to win their conference tournament to get as high as a 3 seed, which at best is a 50/50 shot. But if they do, I think you're right that Kansas and Wichita would most likely be a 2 and 3.

Teams from the same conference CAN meet in the Sweet 16 - unless you're referring to a rule about highly seeded teams that I'm not aware of. But a KU-WSU matchup is certainly possible and would be a lot of fun.

[Dev11]

Well, don't underestimate Northern Iowa. Wichita needs to win their conference tournament to get as high as a 3 seed, which at best is a 50/50 shot. But if they do, I think you're right that Kansas and Wichita would most likely be a 2 and 3.

Teams from the same conference CAN meet in the Sweet 16 - unless you're referring to a rule about highly seeded teams that I'm not aware of. But a KU-WSU matchup is certainly possible and would be a lot of fun.

Top 4 seeds from the same conference are not supposed to be grouped in the same region unless there are more than four from the same conference, so yes, there is sort of a rule to this effect. However, it's possible for the Big 12 to get enough teams into top 4 seeds to force the issue.

The committee claims it doesn't look for interesting matchups, but in this case, it's conceivable that they would be forced into a KU-WSU Sweet Sixteen game.

[Wander]

Top 4 seeds from the same conference are not supposed to be grouped in the same region unless there are more than four from the same conference, so yes, there is sort of a rule to this effect. However, it's possible for the Big 12 to get enough teams into top 4 seeds to force the issue.

The committee claims it doesn't look for interesting matchups, but in this case, it's conceivable that they would be forced into a KU-WSU Sweet Sixteen game.

Ok, thanks!

I've never seen any evidence to doubt that the committee doesn't look for match-ups - every year there are potential stories that could have happened with a slight rearranging of the bracket.

[-jk]

Ok, thanks!

I've never seen any evidence to doubt that the committee doesn't look for match-ups - every year there are potential stories that could have happened with a slight rearranging of the bracket.

The rules against matchups are enough to make it difficult. For the top 20 or so programs, they have so much history they always have stories.

On the other hand, if there's low hanging fruit, the committee won't hesitate to set it up...

-jk

[TexHawk]

The rules against matchups are enough to make it difficult. For the top 20 or so programs, they have so much history they always have stories.

On the other hand, if there's low hanging fruit, the committee won't hesitate to set it up...

-jk

For this particular matchup, the committee had a chance last year and didn't take it. But they put KU in the South (Memphis is slightly closer to Lawrence). Of course, I really don't think the wider CBB hoops fans care one bit about a small rivalry between two Kansas schools. Surely CBS doesn't get stoked over the possible ratings.

[-jk]

For this particular matchup, the committee had a chance last year and didn't take it. But they put KU in the South (Memphis is slightly closer to Lawrence). Of course, I really don't think the wider CBB hoops fans care one bit about a small rivalry between two Kansas schools. Surely CBS doesn't get stoked over the possible ratings.

But if they can pull off a low-hanging ACC-UMd game (especially Duke, UVa, or unc), somehow I feel certain they will.

-jk

[OldPhiKap]

Davidson absolutely is a tournament team. They're the only team to score 70 points against Virginia. They have a fantastic offense. If I remember correctly, they are pretty young. McKillop is an excellent coach. I'm happy to see them be successful in the A-10 after making a gutsy move. I hope they can sustain that level when he retires.

All you say is true, but Davidson has to take care of business this week to get in. VCU and Dayton should be in. Davidson hosts VCU this Thursday I think, then on the road to Duquesne. I think Davidson gets in ahead of Rhode Island as things stand now, but dropping both games would put some tourney pressure on them.

[Wander]

But if they can pull off a low-hanging ACC-UMd game (especially Duke, UVa, or unc), somehow I feel certain they will.

-jk

I really don't think that's true. Duke and Kentucky have been 1 and 8 seeds before without them being in the same region - would have been an exceptionally easy thing to do. I mean, Duke, UVA, and UNC are pretty likely to be in three different regions out of four, so I don't think Maryland getting a Sweet 16 matchup with one of them would mean anything...

[OldPhiKap]

On behalf of many friends, may I say:

GO DAWGS!

SIC 'EM!

WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

As armchair refs go, Jay Bilas may be in a class by himself.

[TexHawk]

Fyi... KU is sitting Ellis, Greene, Alexander (obviously), and probably Selden against Oklahoma today. With the conference title won, Bill Self probably feels pretty comfortable with their seeding right now. Expect some Tyler Self and Evan Manning today.

(And probably a 20 point loss.)

[brevity]

It's Arch Madness in St. Louis with the Missouri Valley Conference tournament playing its semifinals today. Top seed Wichita State lost to 4-seed Illinois State 65-62. This means 2 things:

1. Wichita State's tenuous grasp on a NCAA 3-seed (and a possible Sweet 16 matchup with likely 2-seed Kansas) is pretty much over;
2. Illinois State could burst someone's bubble if they win tomorrow.

MVC 2-seed Northern Iowa plays 6-seed Loyola in the other semifinal, starting about now.

[CDu]

Fyi... KU is sitting Ellis, Greene, Alexander (obviously), and probably Selden against Oklahoma today. With the conference title won, Bill Self probably feels pretty comfortable with their seeding right now. Expect some Tyler Self and Evan Manning today.

(And probably a 20 point loss.)

Self might be gaming the system here. There was a good chance KU would lose anyway. So by benching so many key guys, Self can argue "but this loss shouldn't count against us because so many guys were out."

And so far the backups are making the most of a no-lose situation.

[TexHawk]

Self might be gaming the system here. There was a good chance KU would lose anyway. So by benching so many key guys, Self can argue "but this loss shouldn't count against us because so many guys were out."

And so far the backups are making the most of a no-lose situation.

Maybe he was, but you get that luxury when you win the league with one game remaining. If KU had lost to WVU on Tuesday (or if OU hadn't choked on their 21 point lead in Ames), all of those guys, sans Alexander, would have played today.

Speaking of, if Landen Lucas can keep throwing up 13-13 every night, Cliff Alexander can go out for dinner with as many agents as he wants.

[CDu]

Maybe he was, but you get that luxury when you win the league with one game remaining. If KU had lost to WVU on Tuesday (or if OU hadn't choked on their 21 point lead in Ames), all of those guys, sans Alexander, would have played today.

Speaking of, if Landen Lucas can keep throwing up 13-13 every night, Cliff Alexander can go out for dinner with as many agents as he wants.

No disagreement. Just pointing it out.

[Bob Green]

Wisconsin (6) at Ohio State (23) tips at 4:30 today. Does a Wisconsin loss provide us a little #1 Seed insurance? I would not mind seeing the other competition loss in their conference tournaments: Arizona, Villanova and Gonzaga.

Gonzaga plays Pepperdine on Monday at 9 pm in the West Coast Conference Tournament.
Villanova plays the winner of Seton Hall/Marquette on Thursday at noon in the Big East Tournament.
Arizona plays the winner of California/Washington State on Thursday at 3 pm in the Pacific 12 Tournament.

I'd really, really like to see both Duke and Virginia as #1 Seeds. Assuming either Duke or Virginia wins the ACCT, whichever team wins is a #1 lock. However, the loser could need a little help so losses by Wisconsin, Villanova, Arizona and Gonzaga are good for the ACC (Kentucky isn't going to lose).

[OldPhiKap]

Wisconsin (6) at Ohio State (23) tips at 4:30 today. Does a Wisconsin loss provide us a little #1 Seed insurance? I would not mind seeing the other competition loss in their conference tournaments: Arizona, Villanova and Gonzaga.

Gonzaga plays Pepperdine on Monday at 9 pm in the West Coast Conference Tournament.
Villanova plays the winner of Seton Hall/Marquette on Thursday at noon in the Big East Tournament.
Arizona plays the winner of California/Washington State on Thursday at 3 pm in the Pacific 12 Tournament.

I'd really, really like to see both Duke and Virginia as #1 Seeds. Assuming either Duke or Virginia wins the ACCT, whichever team wins is a #1 lock. However, the loser could need a little help so losses by Wisconsin, Villanova, Arizona and Gonzaga are good for the ACC (Kentucky isn't going to lose).

Whisky losing would help our breathing room.

[jhmoss1812]

Whisky losing would help our breathing room.

Feels dirty to say but Go Buckeyes! With UVA losing last night, we may need some help from other teams. Wisky losing today would be a great start for both UVA and Duke.

[Henderson]

Whisky losing would help our breathing room.

Amen.

I like breathing room. But I'm not sure we need it to secure a #1 seed at this point. Villanova might be vulnerable; UVa might be vulnerable. But I don't think Duke is vulnerable at this point.

[lotusland]

Maybe he was, but you get that luxury when you win the league with one game remaining. If KU had lost to WVU on Tuesday (or if OU hadn't choked on their 21 point lead in Ames), all of those guys, sans Alexander, would have played today.

Speaking of, if Landen Lucas can keep throwing up 13-13 every night, Cliff Alexander can go out for dinner with as many agents as he wants.

Which gives me a nice opportunity to pat myself on the back for posting that Duke should have stayed on that kid even when he was listed as a below the rim 6'8 post player and fell out of the top 100 on recruiting lists. He seemed really high on Duke and, at the time, seemed like a great 4-year type guy with a variety post moves and some shot blocking ability. Now a 6'10 240 lb red-shirt sophomore, he'll be a solid contributor for 2 more years and could end up being really special. Kudos to him for staying put, working hard and making the most of his opportunities

[gumbomoop]

I like breathing room. But I'm not sure we need it to secure a #1 seed at this point. Villanova might be vulnerable; UVa might be vulnerable. But I don't think Duke is vulnerable at this point.

Agree. I think both Duke and UVa are 1-locks, unless either loses embarrassingly badly in ACCT quarters. I guess Pack could embarrass us, though I do not expect such a game. Neither Clemson nor FSU can embarrass the Hoos. The Hoos can, however, embarrass them, and secure their 1-lock.

Both Duke and UVa have very, very impressive bodies of work. Duke looks especially strong right now. One might worry for the Hoos over the Anderson uncertainty-factor, but I think the fact that he did not suffer a ruptured appendix means he'll be ready to contribute from the beginning of NCAAT, and might even see the floor next Fri-Sat. Even if delayed until Hoos' second game in NCAAT, that would be soon enough that the Selection Comittee would not drop them from top line.

Still, yes, I'll hope Wisconsin loses today, that 'Nova fails to win Big East, and that, well, Stanford wins Pac 10.

[brevity]

I'd really, really like to see both Duke and Virginia as #1 Seeds. Assuming either Duke or Virginia wins the ACCT, whichever team wins is a #1 lock. However, the loser could need a little help so losses by Wisconsin, Villanova, Arizona and Gonzaga are good for the ACC (Kentucky isn't going to lose).

Good points. Also, it's important not just to be a #1 seed, but to be a #1 seed on the opposite side of the bracket as Kentucky. (So, the #2 or #3 overall seed. I think Kentucky stays #1 overall even if they lose the SEC Tournament, which is unlikely.)

If Virginia and Duke both end up with #1 seeds, I'm curious as to whether the Selection Committee is interested in keeping them on opposite sides of the bracket as well. Do they have a strict #1-4 ranking of those top 4 overall teams, or do they secretly fudge it a little? You could imagine a situation where they end up #2 and #3 overall.

It's been a long time since exactly two #1 seeds came from the same conference (I'm not counting the three Big East #1 seeds in 2009). You have to go back to 2006, where Connecticut and Villanova were both top seeds, and both placed on the same side of the bracket. Which became moot when Connecticut lost to George Mason and Villanova lost to Florida. 2005 is a stronger precedent, as top seeds Duke and North Carolina were on the same side of the bracket.

So, looks like the Selection Committee does not mind having two top seeds from the same conference potentially face one another in a national semifinal. Good to know.

[gurufrisbee]

I think we locked up a 1 seed last night. Us, Kentucky, and UVA I think are locked in. The last one goes to Nova, unless they lose. Then it's Wisconsin. Unless they lose. Then it's Zona. Unless they lose. Then it's Gonzaga. Unless they lose. Then it goes back to Villanova.

[gumbomoop]

Granted that Bracketology predictions could be hammered by strange results in conference tournaments, I think there's an emerging Bracketology consensus on top 2 lines and regions. The consensus, right now, is this:

East- UVa, Kansas
South - Duke, Gonzaga
West - Villanova, Arizona
Midwest - UK, Wisconsin

With one possible difference, switching surging Duke and Anderson-uncertainty UVa. I don't know how good Kansas is, and one always wants to be careful what one wishes for. But I wouldn't mind our guys getting to Syracuse instead of Houston and having KU rather than Zags as our 2-seed.

Which brings me to this point: I think Zags are very good, a legit top 5-6 team. They play 7-8 guys. Six of their main 7 are juniors/seniors. They rotate 3 good bigs at 4/5, and have 4 experienced perimeter guys, strong, strong. Nation-leading FG%, solid rebounding, experience, sufficient depth, 4 dependable-to-excellent 3-bombers, experience, bevy of good guards, experience, experienced guards.

What's not to like, even worry about as "our" 2-seed? ["Dude, they lost at home to BYU last week."]

[MChambers]

Wisconsin is destroying OSU right now. Looks like the Badgers want a #1 seed.